text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Fake meat will have 10% or more of the meat market share in the US by 2035 | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Netanyahu be convicted of a crime by end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
A prominent self-identifying Effective Altruist endorses Ron DeSantis for president in 2024. | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum trade above $10k at any point in 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum trade above $5k at any point in 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the average American woman weigh >170lbs in 2030? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Julia Galef (Rationally Speaking podcast, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
In a Twitter poll in 2024 will people say Bostrom email was worse for EA internal dynamics than FTX crisis. | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Cari Tuna (Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Max Tegmark (physicist, Future of Life Institute) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Brett Harrison (previously President of FTX U.S.) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will any of Donald Trump's children be elected to Congress, Vice President, or President of the US by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
A prominent self-identifying Effective Altruist endorses Donald Trump for president in 2024. | 0.18 | Manifold |
Twitter market cap is higher than Bitcoin market cap in 2030. | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to outperform Elon Musk as CEO of Twitter before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. use a points-based immigration system before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Cristina Kirchner be imprisoned until the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the average American man weigh >200lbs in 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Metaculus user experience will be basically the same in 2024 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will spot gold close above $3000 on any day in 2023? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the average interest in Vyper programming language be at least 50% that of Solidity over 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Prince Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden announce his 2024 candidacy at the 2023 State of the Union? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will California decriminalize and/or legalize MDMA before 2027? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will California decriminalize LSD before 2027? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will there be a new Super Smash Bros Melee tier list before 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Miles Routledge aka Lord Miles is alive in 2030 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Conditional on YouTube.com existing in 2300, will Rick Astley give you up? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will YouTube.com still exist in 2300? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will over 10,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will (DeepMind text model) exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be mentioned in the NYT or the WSJ by end of 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the consumption of Alcohol be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the sale of Alcohol be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will all gun ownership be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2030? | 0.54 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025? | 0.68 | Manifold |
What will be the age of the winner of the 2024 presidential election? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Tesla sell/lease/rent/commercialize in any way humanoid robots to outside individuals or companies by the end of 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
A new major league sports team comes to San Francisco by 2030 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Berkeley will have a Republican mayor by 2036 | 0.15 | Manifold |
San Francisco's population exceeds San Jose's by mid 2028 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Number of operational nuclear reactors in the world has surpasses 800 anytime before mid 2039 | 0.75 | Manifold |
The number of operational world nuclear reactors is below 500 in mid 2039 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
The world population reaches 11 billion by 2040 | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will any OECD or NATO country experience a successful coup d'état by 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will (stability.AI text model) exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025) | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Jimmy Wales (co-founder of Wikipedia) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Anders Sandberg (researcher and futurist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will anyone in the US be convicted solely for possession of simulated child pornography? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
The world population reaches ten billion by 2040 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will any human fall into the Sun before 2060? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a device for behavior modification by punishment called "graduated electronic decelerator" be banned in USA by the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow market creators to pay Mana to "feature" their own markets to attract more traders by end of 2025? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Conditional on DeSantis winning the nomination, will he be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election? | 0.63 | Manifold |
"The Surge": EIP-4844 added to mainnet in 2023 | 0.76 | Manifold |
AI: >4% of Gdp (by 2030) | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Israel qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Twitter evicted from their San Francisco office by 2024 | 0.17 | Manifold |
AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2030) | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
AI: >3% of Gdp (by 2050) | 0.78 | Manifold |
AI: >10% of Gdp (by 2050) | 0.73 | Manifold |
AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2050) | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum reach $500 before it reaches $5000? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will there be an Age of Mythology II by end of 2028? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be an AoE 5 by end of 2028? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
How much will the average American man weigh in 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will number 852655 have been found to be in Recamán’s sequence (A005132) before the year 2030 ? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will at least three lithium mines begin operations in the US before 2030? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.7 | Manifold |
Both US political parties will seem less extreme by 2025 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Well there be a debt ceiling showdown before 2025? | 0.9 | Manifold |
California reservoirs will be over 100% of historical average at the beginning of 2024 | 0.74 | Manifold |
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