text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will “anti-racism” peak by 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will life expectancy in any country pass 90 before 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Telosa have a population of 50,000 by 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2029? | 0.05 | Manifold |
How many mass shootings will take place in 2025 in the US, as reported by massshootingtracker.site? | 0.71 | Manifold |
How many mass shootings will take place in 2024 in the US, as reported by massshootingtracker.site? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will an age limit be placed on the US Supreme Court before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Joe Biden by 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Hunter Biden by 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will an age limit be placed on the US Senate before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an age limit be placed on the US Presidency before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an age limit be placed on the US House before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an age limit be placed on NZ Parliament before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a term limit be placed on the US Senate before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a term limit be placed on the US House before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Robert Wiblin (charity organizer, researcher and podcaster) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview AI by 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview AI by 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will a term limit be placed on NZ Parliament before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Adam Back (cryptographer, co-founder of Blockstream) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2028? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2027? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the U. S. President pardon Julian Assange by February 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the existing China government collapse by 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Shehbaz Sharif be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Imran Khan be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will life expectancy in any country pass 90 before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2026? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the United States abortion protests be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the United Kingdom cost of living crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the Ukrainian refugee crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 75%+ by 2040? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 50%+ by 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 40%+ by 2040? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 30%+ by 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 20%+ by 2040? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will U.S. meat consumption decline by 10%+ by 2040? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the Turkish currency and debt crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the Sri Lankan economic crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the Russia-European Union gas dispute be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Sam Harris create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Brazil add a new state by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Qatargate be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will crack be legal by 2040? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will crack be legal by 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will crack be legal by 2050? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the Peruvian political crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Valve announce a standalone XR headset before 2025? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the Pakistan economic crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Toby Ord create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Nick Szabo (computer scientist and cryptographer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the Opioid epidemic be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the US CPSC propose banning gas stoves by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the North Kosovo crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow market creators to generate another market image instead of the 1st AI image that was auto-selected by end of 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow market creators to upload a custom image for their market by end of 2025? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Fox News create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Vox create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the Atlantic create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will William MacAskill create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the Myanmar protests be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the Moldovan energy crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Destiny have a notable breastfeeding debate by 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Asian population of San Francisco surpasses white population by 2043 | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Coleman Hughes create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Max Roser create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will an AI VTuber achieve a concurrent viewership of 10k on more than 1 stream by EoY 2024 | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Stefan Schubert create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Anders Sandberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Dylan Matthews create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Samo Burja create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.62 | Manifold |
2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt? | 0.62 | Manifold |
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