text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Noah Smith create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Ben Thompson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Liam Bright create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024 | 0.68 | Manifold |
Joe Biden will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination heading into 2024 | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Destiny kill or be killed by 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Ethan Mollick create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Alex Heath create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Peter Thiel show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
AI: Valuation above $1T by 2025 | 0.59 | Manifold |
AI: Valuation above $1T by 2040 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the PLA begin development of a naval base in the Western Hemisphere by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
A self described Solarpunk movie has a theatre release before Halloween 2030 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will polygamy be legal by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will polygamy be legal by 2040? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will polygamy be legal by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Lebanese liquidity crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Iranian protests be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a MORENA candidate win the 2024 Mexican presidential election? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the climate crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Belarus-European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI hit its revenue target of one billion dollars in 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Anatoly Yakovenko (founder of Solana) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to generate a PPT slide deck via text prompts by end of 2025? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to generate a PPT slide deck via text prompts by end of 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2025? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will AI-generated text suggestions be publicly available on Microsoft Outlook by end of 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Total Pages Published in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Hage Geingob be president of Namibia at the end of 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
What will the marginal US federal income tax rate on $1M taxable income be in 2033? | 0.39 | Manifold |
What will the marginal US federal income tax rate on $1M taxable income be in 2026? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin.com promote only Bitcoin (BTC) before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Roger Ver admit he is a BTC bitcoiner before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Rep. Matt Gaetz assaulted on floor of Congress before 2026 | 0.16 | Manifold |
US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035. | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=8.5 on IMDB by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $100B model by 2050? | 0.8 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Mickey Mouse appear in a slasher film in 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.5 on IMDB by 2028? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=8.0 on IMDB by 2030? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI IPO by 2040? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk have another child before 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the FP8 numeric format be considered a required feature for AI frameworks and accelerator hardware before the end of 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Koe.AI have over 10,000 unique users by 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Betdaq still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Betfair still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will the Hollywood Stock Exchange still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Augur still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Futuur still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Manifold still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Manifold still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will INFER still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Insight Prediction still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the American Civics Exchange still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will PredictIt still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Polymarket still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will any country that has not previously detonated a nuclear weapon detonate one by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Aella have a child by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
If Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 presidential election, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028? | 0.53 | Manifold |
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden wins a second presidential term, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
If Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 presidential election, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028? | 0.26 | Manifold |
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028? | 0.27 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden wins a second presidential term, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the Tesla Model 3 starting price in the US exceed 55,000 USD before 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Melina stock go below 5% before 2024 | 0.14 | Manifold |
365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 2200 artillery systems? | 0.99 | Manifold |
365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 2200 UAVs? | 0.02 | Manifold |
365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 3280 tanks? | 0.98 | Manifold |
365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 5230 vehicles and fuel tanks? | 0.03 | Manifold |
365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 6400 APV? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will the Framework laptop offer physical mouse buttons by August 2024 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Russia officially order to conscript 500000 more soldiers before August? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the Framework Laptop offer an OLED screen before August 2024 | 0.16 | Manifold |
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