text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Jupiter moon lander launched by end of 2028? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Qiaochu Yuan have kids by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will there be a Zelda: Breath of the Wild adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will someone finally write a post on the microplastics problem on LessWrong or Effective Altruism forum by the end of 2024? (that is *just* as well-written as the post on the air pollution problem) | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will someone finally pester Peter Thiel on his position on microplastics in *any* conference (or in public) by 2026? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will there be *any* commonly sold commercial spice certified as microplastic free by 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will San Francisco decriminalize ALL psychedelics by 2026? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be a Second Coming of Christ by 2100? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will there be any living veterans from the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician) left by the beginning of 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be a fully scraped version of manifold.markets (scraped by any program and organically navigable+clickable) produced by 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will predictionbook.com still exist on 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Barry Silbert (Digital Currency Group founder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI raise over $5B in total venture funding by the end of 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the 3 laws of robotics be used as a framework for an AGI or advanced AI by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will chess be solved by jan 1 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will any popular mobile device feature a touchscreen with the ability to hover your finger above a screen element by the beginning of 2035? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election lose the electoral vote? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the Ryzen 9 7950X3D outperform the Intel Core i9-13900K? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will the FTC implement their proposal for a federal retroactive ban on non-compete clauses by the end of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the new BART Transbay tube be completed by 2040 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Texas HSR project have 6 million annual passengers by 2029 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the California HSR meet any of its ridership or revenue goals by 2030 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA ridership goals by 2030 (8.5M/y) | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA revenue goals by 2030 ($683M/y) | 0.08 | Manifold |
Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030 | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Pope Francis (Jorge M. Bergoglio) still be Pope on Dec 31, 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2024? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will at least 3 of the big 5 tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) end their hiring freeze by 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Which US state will have the most African immigrants by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Sophia (@cis_female) be "stronger" than typedfemale (@typedfemale) by 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will SBF serve time in prison before 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will DWave still exist as an independent publicly traded company by 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Amazon lay off more than 7000 people globally, in Q1, 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell get a new $100M (inflation-adjusted) donor before 2030? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell get a new $100M (inflation-adjusted) cumulative donor before 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
If GiveWell exists, how much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
If GiveWell exists, how much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the UK have a Land Value Tax that raises over £10Bn inflation adjusted by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Wizards of the Coast release a Magic card that has an activated ability with split second before 2028? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Dall-E type technologies destroy demand for itinerant street art sellers in Peru as proxy for Latam before end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
How many kakapo will there be by the end of 2026? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will there be a federal labor rule that bans non-competes nationally by the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Taiwan hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Ukraine hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
South Korea hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Canada hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Japan hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Israel hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
UK hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Euro hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
US hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
How many meals will the Trussel Trust provide in 2026/27? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Kim Jong-un still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II ) still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Joe Rogan still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Kanye West still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Rick Scott be re-elected to the Senate from Florida in 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Josh Hawley be reelected to the US Senate from Missouri in 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz be re-elected to the Senate in Texas in 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Amy Klobuchar be re-elected to the Senate from Minnesota in 2024? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
How many of the 21 representatives below will be replaced in the 2024 election? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 3000 satellites launched into space in 2023? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy] | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Y Combinator accept fewer companies into its accelerator between 2028-2030 than between 2020-2022? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Y Combinator still exist in its current form by 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Robin Hanson (professor, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will AI finally generate an acceptable image of "Peter Thiel making out with, cuddling with, and incubating an egg together with a gay penguin" by 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Kerry Vaughan (manager at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031 | 0.28 | Manifold |
More than 10% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Avraham Eisenberg plead guilty by 2031? | 0.77 | Manifold |
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