text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Global energy <0.01c per killowatt-hour in 2100 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Global energy <0.15c per killowatt-hour in 2100 | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will either Gartner or IDC claim that by 2032, cloud spending quadrupled from 2022? (1,000 subsidy) | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2024 elections? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. musicians be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. video game designers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. artists be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. nurses be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. consultants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the UK NHS (National Health Service) be free at the point of use by 2035? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the UK NHS (National Health Service) be free at the point of use in by 2030 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Putin announce a 2024 presidency bid in 2023? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Zvi endorse a presidential candidate in 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander endorse Donald Trump (for president) in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will UFOs be a partisan issue by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be any Manifold billionaires by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Andy Murray announce his professional retirement from tennis before 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
What will Rewind.ai's valuation be at the end of 2025 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Rewind.ai have a liquidity event by 2028 | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will a dengue vaccine based on TV003/TV005 be approved before 2050? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
RSA-2048 will be broken in 2023. | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Dana White (UFC fight promoter) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic-related stay-at-home order in the US before EoY 2026? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will some U.S. lawyers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Israel host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Russia adopt the euro before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will any US state ban contraception by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Australia enter a recession before 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a HHMI Investigator be sprung out of Alexey Guzey's NewScience by 2040? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Terraform Industries sell something substantial before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Chess with queen odds solved by 2035? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Prometheus Fuels sell fuel by the end of 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030) | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Euro be worth more than the US Dollar at the end of 2024? | 0.72 | Manifold |
An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine adopt the euro before 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Poland adopt the euro before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Sweden adopt the euro before 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Czechia adopt the euro before 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Bart Kay be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Jordan Peterson be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Sakha be a part of Russia in 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will the Jones Act be repealed before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Democrats control Congress after 2024 | 0.31 | Manifold |
Republicans control Congress after 2024 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Republican party trifecta in 2024 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Democratic party trifecta in 2024 | 0.15 | Manifold |
AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2025) | 0.11 | Manifold |
AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2030) | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be an Elden Ring adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any speech model exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025) | 0.73 | Manifold |
The top trader by creator count, weekly, from https://manifold.markets/leaderboards has more than 5000 traders by June 2024 | 0.71 | Manifold |
Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by June 2025 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Shrek 5 release before 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be 10+ market creators in the Gale Family Manifold group that are not related to the Gale Family by end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum go above $3k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Aella be romantically involved with Destiny by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum go below $700 for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum go below $500 for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum go above $2k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Infra-Bayesianism be built on by 3+ theory or ML papers before 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Andor Season 2 release in 2024 as expected? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will we see any new Spice and Wolf before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
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