text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
If DeSantis does not run in 2024, will he ever be President? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will cryptocurrency and web3 be mainstream by 2032? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will there be a new pope elected by the 17th of December 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will gold still be worth at least $100 per ounce at the end of 2035? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will a South Korean President be convicted of a crime before 2035? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027? | 0.9 | Manifold |
In 2026, the majority of Pakistani adults will be banked. | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will there be a 21st member state of the eurozone by the 1st of february 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will UK rejoin the EU by the end of 2025 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Typescript overtake JavaScript as the most popular language in GitHub by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025 | 0.42 | Manifold |
The TSA or U.S. Border Security will experiment with automating their ID checks / Q&A using voice synthesis and speech recognition before the end of 2026 | 0.27 | Manifold |
A Netflix live-action show will be hosted or have a main character that is AI Generated, with no actor involved, before the end of 2025 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Isaac King incorrectly resolve a market before 2025? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will neither Desantis nor Trump be the GOP 2024 nominee? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Bing's market share passes 10% by 2030 (it's 3.4% as of 12/22) | 0.3 | Manifold |
Bing's market share of search passes google's by 2030 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Israel test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will India test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will China test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the US government announce a new student debt forgiveness program by 2028? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will the US Senate get rid of the filibuster before 2032? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the US Senate get rid of the filibuster before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the US Congress pass universal pre-K legislation by 2032? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Alzheimer’s be cured by 2040? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will there be significant BLM riots preceding the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie before 2026? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Trump by 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will DeSantis go on Lex Fridman podcast by 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will DeSantis go on Joe Rogan by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Gregory Pepin (deputy CEO of Deltec Bank) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Lionel Messi be considered the GOAT in 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will LeBron James be considered the GOAT in 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Joe Manchin win the 2024 US Senate election in West Virginia? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any executive staff at Direct Relief be criminally charged by 2032? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? (Resolves N/A if it gets fewer than 30 traders) | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum trade below $1k before 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035? | 0.73 | Manifold |
AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030) | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2028? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the Center for AI Safety run another large-scale philosophy research fellowship in 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Nishad Singh be charged for his role in the FTX scandal by 2030? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless. | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be a martian colony by 2050? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will attempts to slow ai progress continue to appear to be a cause of ai progress speeding up by 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will more than one world-class winning team in a competitive, physical sport remove rote repetition from their training in favor of an ecological approach to training by 2042? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will a 'dark version' of an advanced AI chatbot be widely available by 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Russia leave UEFA by 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Alphabet (GOOG) be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Nigeria be a democracy in 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will the US be a democracy in 2050? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will India be a democracy in 2050? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Russia be a democracy in 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will China be a democracy in 2050? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an AI have >20 million Twitter followers by the 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will SBF make an escape attempt before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
In Texas, will there be a high-profile case of a transgender child being separated from their parents before 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will StrongMinds be a GWWC top charity in 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI IPO by 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100? | 0.11 | Manifold |
By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial? | 0.34 | Manifold |
By June 2024, will Musk have sold another Tesla share? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will NHS England's budget be under £100bn in 2030/31? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2028? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Hinkley Point C be complete by the end of June 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will 20% or more of Japan's energy be from nuclear sources before 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will we uplift another species by 2075? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will humans uplift another species by 2050? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060? | 0.22 | Manifold |
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