text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will anyone die at least 100,000km from Earth before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will anyone die in space before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have a Brazilian Portuguese version before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
AI: Will a wearable be smarter than a person by 2040? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Katja Grace be No. 1 on the All Time Profit Leaderboard at any point before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will something at least as good as beau's ideal world have been achieved by 2100? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Coinbase be the #1/2 exchange in 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Binance be the #1 exchange in 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Manifold implement an option to hide the probability of new markets by default by 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Before the end of 2035, will transracism become as common as transgenderism was in 2022? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will anyone be discovered to be laundering money through a Manifold charity before 2026? | 0.58 | Manifold |
If the linked "google has active agi safety group" market resolves false, will GOOG/VTF decrease from 47% to 38% or less by 2024? (details in description) | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will brain death be reversible by 2070? | 0.68 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $100M model by 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Chuck get laid before 2025? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will China host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Morocco host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Spain and Portugal co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will South America host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.14 | Manifold |
What will MIT's acceptance rate be for the class of 2027? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Commercial in-orbit refueling by 2036? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity by 2036? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.48 | Manifold |
More than 100 toilets in space by 2030? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030? [Quick Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin lightning network reach a public capacity of at least 8000 BTC in 2023? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the Texas Legislature commission a study on split-rate property tax before 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will the TSA allow >200ml containers of liquid on flights by 2030 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a self-driving taxi service in SF with a working desk seat and wifi by the end of 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026? | 0.72 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will there be at least 10 500+ player Competitive Magic tournaments in the United States in 2024? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $50 billion before 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $100 billion before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the draft be reinstated in the United States before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Dina Boluarte, the newly appointed, and first female president of Peru, be in the presidency until 2024, before new general elections occur ? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the price of S&P 500 futures (ESA Index) be between 4000 and 4080 at 9:30 am Eastern Time 13 December? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release Advance Wars 1+2 in Europe before 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2050? | 0.83 | Manifold |
How many years will SBF be sentenced in US as of 2025-01-01? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will AI-generated child porn be legalized in the US before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand allow any nuclear bombs or nuclear reactors inside its territory before 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will S&P500 close above 4000 at the end of 2022? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will anyone on Twitter make a credible claim that @CarsonGale is arguing for something in bad faith by the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will US or Canadian flights stop making me put away my laptop during takeoff and landing before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any human who was never in a human womb reach 1 year of age before 2032? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will John Roberts retire/die/leave the US supreme court before 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will GBTC (Greyscale bitcoin trust) be revealed to be fraudulent in some way by 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Does a major dating app (e.g. Tinder/Grindr/etc) require ID age verification by 2030 | 0.85 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $100M model by 2025? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will any anthropogenic object be further from Earth than Voyager 1 before 2060? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will a Tesla car or truck transport a SpaceX rocket by the end of 2029? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Freddie DeBoer make any post on Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Vercel fork the React codebase before 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Sotomayor leave the supreme court before 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will any of my open markets have gotten no bets for a year? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Florida? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Minnesota? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Pennsylvania? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Michigan? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Wisconsin? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Nevada? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Washington DC? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wyoming? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in West Virginia? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Washington? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Virginia? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Vermont? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Utah? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Texas? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Tennessee? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in South Dakota? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in South Carolina? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Rhode Island? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Oregon? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Ohio? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Dakota? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New York? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Mexico? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Jersey? | 0.98 | Manifold |
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