text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Apple release an AR headset in 2024 | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will earbud "transparent mode" be able to selectively mute/passthru certain sounds by 2025 | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030 | 0.73 | Manifold |
will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla by the end of 2025 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will any US county attempt to secede from the state it belongs to by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness. | 0.48 | Manifold |
By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will 2024 be the warmest year on record? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Bay Bridge bike path from West Oakland to downtown SF open before 2031? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden face a primary challenge in 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the S&P500 ever be below $2700 before July 1, 2023? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Twitter loose 32 million users by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Evgeny Gaevoy (founder of Wintermute) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will bees still be a type of fish at the beginning of 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Eddie Ibanez (CryptoZoo Lead Developer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Tai Lopez (self-help guru and vlogger) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Eugen Rochko (creator of Mastodon) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Nayib Bukele win El Salvador's 2024 elections? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will s&p500 be worth 3800 or less by the end of 2022? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will regulated non-medical cannabis be available in Germany by the end of 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
AI: Valuation above $1T by 2035 | 0.82 | Manifold |
AI: Valuation above $1T by 2030 | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be alive by 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2050? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI be acquired by Microsoft by the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have >$1 billion in revenue in 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run for US President before 2035? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will someone sell a non-lithium EV before 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Manifold experience a serious security breach that compromises at least one user's personal data by the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will any of the Big Four of the FTX case apparently completely escape the attention of law enforcement as of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
AI: Verbal Supremacy by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Debian ship a driver written in Rust using the Rust for Linux infrastructure by 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will all previous champions of the World Cup qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the levelized cost of electricity from advanced nuclear be less than $60/MWh by 2030 (in the US)? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a member of the UK Parliament be known to have used a psychedelic drug by the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV be less than $20/MWh by 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Earth have a new impact crater of at least 100 m caused by a meteor by 2033? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Binance be the #1 exchange in 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Coinbase be the #1/2 exchange in 2025? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will there stop being 50 states in the USA before 2032? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will the Everyday Astronaut go to the moon by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Jake Paul (media personality and boxer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Logan Paul (media personality and wrestler) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Brian Johnson ("Liver King") be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a Trump Card sell for $1m by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a Trump Card sell for 100 ETH? (by 2024) | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India in 2029? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India in 2025? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Samia Suluhu be re-elected in the 2025 Tanzania Presidential Elections? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court before 2029? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk ban another journalist from Twitter before 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Joscha Bach publish a new book before 2031? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a committee of the House of Representatives vote to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas before 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the House of Representatives impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will human brains be weaker than AI in every way by the end of 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Trump be sued for reason related to his NFT collection before 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Richard Hanania be a Democrat by the end of 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the world population decrease before 2035? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the world population decrease before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the world population decrease before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2028? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection be above 0.4 ETH before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection be above 0.3 ETH before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection be above 0.2 ETH before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will EA noticeably split along Longtermist/neartermist lines before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a building called "The Heptagon" by the end of 2032? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Another 2024 US presidential candidate releases trading cards? | 0.3 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2080? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Pony ears for humans before 2035? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030 | 0.15 | Manifold |
By the end of 2032, will GiveWell have retroactively reduced their estimates of the effectiveness of AMF between 2014 and 2019 by at least a factor of 2? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will there be a space rescue mission before 2035? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
By the end of 2029, will anyone surpass Valeri Polyakov's record for longest time continuously spent in space? (437 days.) | 0.39 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.