text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Hampshire? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nebraska? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Montana? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Missouri? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Mississippi? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Minnesota? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Michigan? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Massachusetts? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maine? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Louisiana? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Kentucky? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Kansas? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Indiana? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Illinois? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Idaho? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Hawaii? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Georgia? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Florida? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Delaware? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Connecticut? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Colorado? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in California? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arkansas? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Alaska? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Alabama? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will 3 friends around me use Manifold as a day-to-day betting & accountability tool by 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat) | 0.45 | Manifold |
By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Bulgaria join Schengen before 2026? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Romania join Schengen before 2026? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will fewer than 1/3 of these crypto projects be widely considered to be scams by 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will "Across Protocol" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will "zkSync" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will "Arbitrum" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will "Soulbound Tokens" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will "Sudoswap" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will "DEX Screener" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will "The Merge" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2024) | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Congress enact viewpoint neutrality for large platforms? (By 2030) | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be jailed for creating it before 2033? | 0.67 | Manifold |
By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Georgia (the country) surpass the population of Georgia (the state) by the end of 2040? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Cat girl ears by end of 2029? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the Musk Foundation fund a major EA project by 2031? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the Musk Foundation deploy >$100M by 2030? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Kyrsten Sinema run for re-election to the Senate in 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
What will US military investment in AI be in 2030? | 0.86 | Manifold |
What will US military investment in AI be in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will AI safety and regulation be mandatory training courses for students working with AI by the year 2035 under Federal Law? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the FTC make any public moves to take antitrust action against Apple before 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
AI: Major scientific discovery by 2030 | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will at any point in time before 2024 covid's infection rate per million people in China exceed that of US? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Sea level NASA Vital Sign of the Planet in 2073 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the s&p 500 be worth more than 3968 when this market closes | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Ohio? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in West Virginia? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Clarence Thomas leave the supreme court before 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
How much money will the LEV Foundation spend in 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 30 million USD in 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 10 million USD in 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 5 million USD in 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 1 million USD in 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Kyrsten Sinema win at least one county in the 2024 Arizona Senate election? | 0.34 | Manifold |
AI Newspaper by 2025 | 0.58 | Manifold |
AI: 170 LSAT by 2025 | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Hades II out perform Hades on steam charts by the end of 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on November 1, 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will malaria be erradicated before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Kyrsten Sinema win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the Investment Corporation of Dubai hold the largest PE allocation by 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will any Macbook have a touchscreen by the end of 2026? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will anyone get married due to a Manifold marriage proposal by the end of 2026? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Australia own and operate any nuclear powered submarines by 2040? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Convictions over Reichsbürger coup d'état plot by 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030? [Quick Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.41 | Manifold |
Solar gravitational lens mission launched by 2035? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections? | 0.6 | Manifold |
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