text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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What is the chance that North Korea will become a democracy by 2108? North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025 will be 1.42k? Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more comm... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will become a democracy by 2108? North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will rank 31.6 on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), "the level of human development when inequality is accou... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will rank 31.6 on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), "the level of human development when inequality is accou... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.35B people will use a newly discovered drug for non-medical purposes between 2021 and 2070? [World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet by Dec 2028? Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will rank 31.6 on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), "the level of human development when inequality is accou... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur in 2038? A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur in 2038? A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically by 2198? At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
The chosen metrics are,
* [Nominal... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 million digit prime number will be discovered by 2039? The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discov... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically by 2198? At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
The chosen metrics are,
* [Nominal... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global IPv4 traffic will account for less than 1% of total internet traffic by 2055? IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slight... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) will reach a value of 92.66 before 2030? **[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)**
The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 million digit prime number will be discovered by 2039? The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discov... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global IPv4 traffic will account for less than 1% of total internet traffic by 2055? IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slight... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will become a democracy by 2108? North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) will reach a value of 92.66 before 2030? **[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)**
The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically by 2198? At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
The chosen metrics are,
* [Nominal... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) will reach a value of 92.66 before 2030? **[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)**
The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur in 2038? A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal minimum wage will be 7.56 at the end of 2024 if Joe Biden becomes president? Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) mo... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal minimum wage will be 7.56 at the end of 2024 if Joe Biden becomes president? Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) mo... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal minimum wage will be 7.56 at the end of 2024 if Joe Biden becomes president? Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) mo... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.35B people will use a newly discovered drug for non-medical purposes between 2021 and 2070? [World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market by 2039? Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global IPv4 traffic will account for less than 1% of total internet traffic by 2055? IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slight... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 million digit prime number will be discovered by 2039? The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discov... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market by 2039? Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 71.8 percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance in 2030? On May 21, 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
Keyword: 409
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the human population would decline to fewer than 100 million and take 25% of the time to reach above 1 billion ag... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 will have 30.5M parameters? I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-befo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first commercial Hyperloop system will not begin operations before 2100? A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) de... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 71.8 percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance in 2030? On May 21, 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market by 2039? Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 will have 30.5M parameters? I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-befo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 will have 30.5M parameters? I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-befo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first commercial Hyperloop system will not begin operations before 2100? A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) de... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 71.8 percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance in 2030? On May 21, 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a technology will replace screens by 2046? In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a technology will replace screens by 2046? In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
Keyword: 409
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the human population would decline to fewer than 100 million and take 25% of the time to reach above 1 billion ag... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a technology will replace screens by 2046? In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first commercial Hyperloop system will not begin operations before 2100? A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) de... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.8% of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? *This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
Keyword: 409
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the human population would decline to fewer than 100 million and take 25% of the time to reach above 1 billion ag... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.8% of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? *This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX's Starship will carry a human to orbit by Jan 2026? After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX's Starship will carry a human to orbit by Jan 2026? After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by Oct 2025? When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by Oct 2025? When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global stock market will realize an annual real return of 5.33% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the average annual return on global stocks for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (inclu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In 2024, what is the chance that 73.9% of surveyed Americans will report that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global stock market will realize an annual real return of 5.33% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the average annual return on global stocks for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (inclu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In 2024, what is the chance that 73.9% of surveyed Americans will report that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global stock market will realize an annual real return of 5.33% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the average annual return on global stocks for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (inclu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.8% of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? *This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by Oct 2025? When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In 2024, what is the chance that 73.9% of surveyed Americans will report that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 will realize an annual real return of 9.49% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the annual percentage return on the [S&P 500](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP) for the decade from Jan ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX's Starship will carry a human to orbit by Jan 2026? After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If Labour wins the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 128.5 5 years later? **If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?**
This question resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 will realize an annual real return of 9.49% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the annual percentage return on the [S&P 500](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP) for the decade from Jan ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that direct air carbon capture tech cost will be less than $50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2 by 2039? Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agricultur... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that direct air carbon capture tech cost will be less than $50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2 by 2039? Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agricultur... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that direct air carbon capture tech cost will be less than $50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2 by 2039? Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agricultur... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Boring Company will not tunnel faster than a snail by June 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 will realize an annual real return of 9.49% from 2022 to 2031? *** What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? ***
This question will resolve as the annual percentage return on the [S&P 500](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP) for the decade from Jan ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Labour wins the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 128.5 5 years later? **If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?**
This question resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Boring Company will not tunnel faster than a snail by June 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Labour wins the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 128.5 5 years later? **If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?**
This question resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chinese government will have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens by 2035? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 1.32k trillions of 2020 US$ in 2047? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 140.6 5 years later? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 140.6 5 years later? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chinese government will have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens by 2035? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what is the chance that the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people will be 140.6 5 years later? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 1.32k trillions of 2020 US$ in 2047? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chinese government will have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens by 2035? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Boring Company will not tunnel faster than a snail by June 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 1.32k trillions of 2020 US$ in 2047? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050 will be 126%? #Context
In 2018, the <a href="https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system">United Nations System</a> (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.87 percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-flee... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050 will be 126%? #Context
In 2018, the <a href="https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system">United Nations System</a> (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.87 percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-flee... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives compared to without, given that cryopreservation using fixatives is available? The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a universal flu vaccine will be available by 2036? Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a universal flu vaccine will be available by 2036? Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives compared to without, given that cryopreservation using fixatives is available? The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next fundamental particle to be discovered will have a mass of 3.03×1013 eV? In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of \(125\times10^9\) eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](htt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next fundamental particle to be discovered will have a mass of 3.03×1013 eV? In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of \(125\times10^9\) eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](htt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.140 percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at Krio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next fundamental particle to be discovered will have a mass of 3.03×1013 eV? In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of \(125\times10^9\) eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](htt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.140 percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at Krio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 25.6 states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050 will be 126%? #Context
In 2018, the <a href="https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system">United Nations System</a> (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla's market capitalization will be greater than $2.5 billion on January 1, 2030? In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla's market capitalization will be greater than $2.5 billion on January 1, 2030? In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives compared to without, given that cryopreservation using fixatives is available? The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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