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First, I want to clean out the PM claim on the likelihood of a coup. It's extremely unlikely that you’ll get a military coup. One: the military lacks funding. FBI is declining. The military cares about funding because democratic institutions actually favor the military. When parties compete against each other in the po... |
Second, the youth movement is a substantial unifying force, and the military doesn't want to go against the entire unifying force of student leaders and a young youth movement. That's why the militant chief Waka Zaman gave concessions. |
To the transitional government under you, this is why the youth movement is specifically less likely to be anti-military after this point. The military struggles to challenge the youth movement. In contrast, the military probably has substantial capacity to challenge the BNP that doesn't have the same degree of legitim... |
Third, there's likely to be Western leverage. Bangladesh is in the middle of a $4.7 billion IMF bailout, and the biggest market for its goods is the EU, which is looking for a trade deal because in 2029, the EU's favorable trade conditions are set to expire, meaning Bangladesh can't export to them. However, the West wi... |
So, anything like a military coup is more likely on their side. Now, for this slip to work, we don't have to prove that a military coup is more likely than not. The risk of a military coup is a massive detrimental impact to Bangladesh because investors are terrified of military governments and they pull out capital, me... |
Let's talk about the plausible alternatives in this debate, beginning with the BNP. The first point I want to make is that the BNP will not face political competition in the short run. So, I think our side agrees that the BNP will be in power, but critically, it will not be held accountable. It will not face political ... |
Reason one: they have a leg up in terms of funding. They have name recognition and existing stockpiles of funding, plus large amounts of corruption from being in opposition for a while. This funding is critical to finance electoral campaigns. Here's the thing: youth leaders have a unique moment of legitimacy right now ... |
Youth unemployment is at record highs. What does this mean? It means when the BNP has substantial amounts of funding, youth leaders, if they re-enter politics in a future moment when people experience economic crisis and don't have immediate memories of the July Revolution, they won't just look at a youth leader and au... |
You don't have the time to take off work in order to stand in line to vote. This is ours and enough, and the BNP probably doesn't want to encourage young voters, precisely because, as Li's argument concludes, it is scared of them. So, the BNP is likely to make voting specifically hard. The same applies to the youth eng... |
What this means is young people will struggle to turn out to vote, and the BNP's political power is likely to be entrenched because when it is in power, it will continue gaining access to funding by being the incumbent party, meaning future political competition is unlikely to threaten it. |
No, thank you. Third, the BNP's existing voter block is much less fractured. Historically, people who are worried about Indian intervention in Bangladeshi politics are people with more of an Islamist inclination, who have fought with the BNP, and their voter block is too fractured in the future, meaning other political... |
Why does this matter? Because the BNP is first because it meets all the PM's arguments on political competition or lack thereof. Political competition is asymmetrical. But second, let me listen to the BPM's arguments on young people and why the BNP will care to do that. First, the BNP will not care about them. What are... |
There is a combination of complacency and exhaustion, which means youth voters aren't energized and aren't likely to turn up. The second mechanism is that student organizers have credibility and they have incentives to tell them to turn out to vote. Here's the problem: youth leaders are likely to back the BNP. Why is t... |
This power gives a substantial amount of influence among young voters, so the initial involvement and endorsement of student organizers is for the BNP. Plus, the BNP has funds, so it has the ability to do things that pay them off, especially in this environment. That's often working against them. They are unlikely to c... |
I explained what in the long run, which is the potential time period that they will come out of retirement. One, they have damaged their credibility because they made a promise to exit politics, and two, they will not be seen in the same way because memories will be shortened. All of this means they will not be a meani... |
Here's the thing: youth leaders will be better than the BNP. Their argument is that youth leaders will be totally insulated from political competition. So, why will they give a care? Here's why: because youth leaders aren't a monolithic group. The fact that even some youth leaders are potentially ideological faces subs... |
No Thank you to ensure that basically youth leaders push for democratization and similar notes. Closing, you have anything. |
<poi> |
Your own argument on why these leaders are non-monolithic; this is the precise reason why there's likely to remain political competition on our side, given that different factions of the organization movement probably back different parties, including the Islamist parties described to us. |
</poi> |
No, but I've just given you a bunch of reasons why the BNP will beat all these potential parties. In a first-past-the-post system, strategic voting means that voters will always back a single party. The BNP will act as a shelling point, plus they will use brand loyalty to get them in, even if they have differing views.... |
Here's the argument that they totally missed from Li's speech: the BNP has strong economic connections with existing textile industries. Textile industries have backed them for a substantial amount of time, so they depend on them for their resources. They owe them favors; there are family members appointed to top posit... |
Why does this matter? Because Bangladesh needs to stop industrial policy favoring textile industries as wages rise in Bangladesh. It can no longer compete with countries like Ethiopia on textiles. Plus, Bangladesh is in the midst of an emerging market crisis and needs to transition up the value chain in order to grow. ... |
This means the BNP will be structurally politically fucked up. We stand on opening opposition. |
</dlo> |
<mg> |
This speech will provide a variety of reasons to believe that even if students are uncorruptible, morally accountable, they will be ineffectual and they will cause the greatest degree of harm in this state. I want to start by positioning this extension against opening government. Opening government, I think, assumes th... |
Students are really likely to explain that young people will be almost automatically behind them, but then they also explain that there are a series of perception issues that might block young people out of power, which I think kind of mitigates the harms of their first issue. I think then, subsequently, it provides a ... |
No, we will make a more modest, certain, and internally consistent plan. Regardless of the virtues of these students, if they pursue their demands, they will damage the legacy of the revolution and its attached political program, which is bad. |
The first thing I want to explain is that the perception of these students is cynical, and opening opposition points to kind of generic reasons why people are suspicious of politicians, which I think are true. But I think there are some more specific reasons why people are likely to be particularly skeptical of student... |
But I would additionally note that it is a barrier to collaboration with older people in politics. Like, I think it is quite likely that even probably pretty good politicians who are older, who are more experienced, are pretty skeptical of these young people, making it far more difficult for them to achieve their aims. |
The second thing I want to note is that the specific demands—not all of them, but some of them—made by these young people are both unachievable and undesirable. I think this is probably a better explanation of the problems of these young people than opening government, who I think assumes that they'll do things that ar... |
What is their political program? A couple of things: Firstly, they want to fire tracks of police commissioners and superintendents involved in student casualties. Secondly, they want to fire tracks of vice chancellors of universities all across Bangladesh. And thirdly, they want to remove security personnel at large fr... |
The first thing I'm going to do here is explain why those political positions are likely inflexible, and then I will explain why they are bad. The importance of explaining why they're inflexible shows why young people—no, thank you—will not kind of be strategic and adopt particular positions in order to avoid the sort ... |
Firstly, I would note that these things are highly public, highly published, that in the nine-point plan, which I think makes them relatively difficult to walk back because they are a stated ideological commitment. But secondly, I think that they likely believe them both ideologically but also incredibly emotionally be... |
Additionally, though, I would think that the most radical young people are likely to be at the forefront of politics. Those are the people with potentially the most charisma; those are the people with the strongest belief that pushes them into political roles relative to more moderate young people. Finally, I think the... |
But I'm going to explain now why that is probably a very bad thing. So young people enter politics with a list of demands about disempowering people like vice chancellors. Like this, I think, is highly unachievable. I think that this is a set of people who are obviously incredibly empowered in society. They have access... |
And this provides to you, I think, a far more specific reason why things like civil resistance or more moderately institutional resistance is inevitable because the set of people specifically who these young people have upset are the ones who their political program irritates, who are the ones who their political progr... |
Finally, though, I would note that this also alienates you from potential political allies because I think it's pretty unlikely that, for instance, the BMP is particularly keen on mass firing security from university campuses. I think a lot of, you know, adults are probably pretty like—they think security is a good thi... |
<poi> |
If the impact is a loss of political support, if the impact isn't a loss, and just they lose political support, they lose the next election, abandon these policies. |
</poi> |
I already explained why they are likely to be theistic, why they could be strident and inflexible, but I also just explained why there are a series of less—like the things that are still bad, things like institutions refusing to cooperate with you, things like potential political allies refusing alliances with you. |
The next thing I want to explain is that formal politics uniquely leads to division and conflict, which is that, and I wonder—I think this is actually kind of conceded by opening opposition, who says, "Well, it's fine if they become a bit corrupt because they just condemn their peers." Formal politics is more divisive ... |
Thirdly, I regard that these are likely people with reputations as firebrands. They want to prove it by holding those around them accountable, by being particularly vocal in discussions. Why is this division so bad? It's the quickest route to absolutely destroy the credibility of this student movement. You require like... |
I want to weigh civil society here because I think opening government is a bit vague about what civil society figures can actually achieve. Why is civil society important? Firstly, it's far more acceptable. Opening opposition tells you it's incredibly hard to vote in elections—there are enormous barriers—but things lik... |
But secondly, civil society is more resilient. It is harder to crack down on civil society figures because they are perceived as legitimate, because it's opposed by institutional actors, which means it's important to seize your notoriety to be in these civil society figures. A place where it's important to have powerfu... |
</mg> |
<mo> |
Firstly, on the future political system of Bangladesh, secondly on stability, and why the BNP would be bad for it, as well as incredibly bad government. Let's start with the future political system of Bangladesh because we think the biggest hurdle in this debate isn't about who wins government the next time because wha... |
See, they're talking about all of the government structures that inform every single election into the future. What are the problems with Bangladesh's political system at the moment? First of all, the massive ring of elections. What was supposed to happen is that the government prior to an election would give up power ... |
Secondly, there's an enormous amount of corruption in the Bangladeshi government. There’s an enormous amount of people who are appointed bureaucrats who continue to preserve their own ends. There's also an enormous amount of judicial problems. Judicial act members of the judiciary essentially act in line with political... |
There's an enormous amount of problems that need to be solved in this constitutional assembly, and currently, the interim government has established a large number of commissions under Muhammad Hasan and also with the involvement of the student leaders to reform these policies. Why is it all; Yes |
<poi> |
Yeah, Yunus has a no-price? Do you think that the international actors are likely to want to negotiate with him or a University student? |
</poi> |
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