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4lni8wja5j | one-month-from-today-will-there-be-5l112so00p | One month from Today will there be an official release date for the next Game of Thrones book Winds of Winter? | null | 1,729,140,184,967 | 1,731,819,540,000 | 1,731,823,587,975 | NO | 0.01 | 1,475.360102 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
UQ1EDBfPUGmf7RnsX6Nh | will-scott-claim-the-cats-cradle-re | Will Scott claim the Cat's Cradle review in the 2024 ACX book review contest? | null | 1,716,173,964,821 | 1,729,594,932,211 | 1,729,594,932,211 | NO | 0.01 | 17,387.684119 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
8Mhdxa0oMOnSEI5HjkLb | will-republicans-control-the-house-429658f4cc9d | Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election? | null | 1,696,739,557,558 | 1,731,557,500,683 | 1,731,557,500,683 | YES | 0.99 | 15,088.066883 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
jcogua9y1r | will-us-supreme-court-grant-a-stay | Will US Supreme Court grant a stay, overrule have official hearing on election law challenges before November election? | null | 1,720,213,600,732 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,917,588,770 | YES | 0.300463 | 1,599 | Politics | Government Structure |
3zp5y5x0a4 | will-the-hawk-tuah-girls-podcast-ta | Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 10 on Halloween? | null | 1,727,613,116,554 | 1,730,444,340,000 | 1,730,471,046,991 | NO | 0.043496 | 1,099.268161 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
f8zg7nutrc | will-all-pixel-watches-get-wearos-5 | Will all pixel watches get wearOS 5 on the pixel watch 3 release? | null | 1,723,174,421,385 | 1,726,034,340,000 | 1,727,460,216,875 | YES | 0.58 | 1,837.279144 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
gVn2aoLV0vqeqCN0vB8r | will-ding-liren-play-in-the-next-wo | Will Ding Liren play in the next World Chess Championship match? | null | 1,713,187,484,592 | 1,732,545,546,811 | 1,732,545,546,811 | YES | 0.989923 | 9,610.673383 | Sports | Individual Sports |
2nzzyvxi6l | manifold-lottery-1-in-20-chance | Manifold lottery 1 in 20 chance | null | 1,725,605,856,914 | 1,726,264,740,000 | 1,726,847,914,741 | NO | 0.05 | 3,589.585454 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v | will-rational-animations-second-vid | Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024? | null | 1,689,430,421,795 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,164,779 | NO | 0.009903 | 46,014.810013 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
P2tZul6Ids | short-fuse-will-moana-2-gross-200-m | [Short fuse] Will "Moana 2" gross >$200 million during its 5-day domestic opening weekend? | null | 1,732,740,351,601 | 1,733,241,129,279 | 1,733,241,129,279 | YES | 0.988783 | 1,293.871964 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
jtdnagchi8 | will-gpt4-omni-be-released-by-the-e | Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description) | null | 1,728,403,722,518 | 1,735,657,140,000 | 1,735,664,947,375 | NO | 0.186545 | 1,287.686455 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
z52fwwevki | one-month-from-today-will-jimmy-car-kgv6n76nq2 | One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive? | null | 1,726,460,260,076 | 1,729,137,540,000 | 1,729,140,206,075 | YES | 0.99 | 1,297.457088 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
55uScQLyqh | will-rory-mcilroy-and-scottie-schef | Will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler win The Showdown on December 17? | null | 1,732,939,578,688 | 1,734,504,918,007 | 1,734,504,918,007 | YES | 0.99 | 4,954.384873 | Sports | Individual Sports |
qak89vpfcv | will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-r-770y0ltpxe | Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $30 USD this year ? | null | 1,726,895,491,413 | 1,735,678,800,000 | 1,735,679,486,896 | NO | 0.012539 | 2,637.797252 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
16jsu3f2sq | will-trump-win-texas-by-10-points | Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points? | null | 1,728,676,451,235 | 1,730,945,714,331 | 1,730,945,714,331 | YES | 0.989683 | 1,969.563002 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2wMoBoITkNBdrBCbVjv4 | nfl-week-6-oct-13-will-the-las-vega | NFL Week 6 (Oct 13): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | null | 1,715,834,036,501 | 1,728,953,569,870 | 1,728,953,569,870 | NO | 0.01 | 1,001.216571 | Sports | Professional Sports |
sS5Wd3f0Tzr28O6HzriY | did-deep-sea-vision-really-find-ame | Did Deep Sea Vision really discover Amelia Earhart's plane? | null | 1,706,555,628,056 | 1,732,475,662,952 | 1,732,475,662,952 | NO | 0.334684 | 3,202.176929 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
TqFP3D5x8b3KjeuSm3yj | will-tommy-devito-start-more-games | Will Tommy Devito start more games for the New York Giants than Daniel Jones, in the Calendar Year of 2024? | null | 1,702,426,846,718 | 1,732,328,316,679 | 1,732,328,316,679 | NO | 0.01 | 2,387.99409 | Sports | Team Sports |
Rb8BGBvmuOam2ndsACDA | will-both-demi-vollering-and-lotte | Will both Demi Vollering and Lotte Kopecky ride for Team SD Worx ProTime in 2025? | null | 1,708,005,287,675 | 1,730,216,629,537 | 1,730,216,629,537 | NO | 0.01 | 2,486.664609 | Sports | Professional Sports |
02dZs9L6Ih | will-the-chicago-bears-maul-the-det | Will the Chicago Bears maul the Detroit Lions? 🏈|🦃 (12:30pm) | null | 1,732,589,072,498 | 1,732,846,504,909 | 1,732,846,504,909 | NO | 0.01 | 13,763.126519 | Sports | Team Sports |
qqhId6hHJDgbtJa7Wr4D | will-republicans-maintain-control-o | Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | null | 1,681,831,484,019 | 1,731,613,931,875 | 1,731,613,931,875 | YES | 0.99 | 12,657.182368 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
p597npe3v4 | will-bitcoin-end-august-31-2024-ove-4xcf3xjfia | Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $50000? | null | 1,725,201,554,766 | 1,730,444,340,000 | 1,730,444,470,352 | YES | 0.99 | 17,557.826959 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ZLz3CX7rfAOK51qjUbbR | will-carlos-sainz-score-more-podium | Will Carlos Sainz score more podium finishes in 2024 than George Russell? | null | 1,707,387,733,731 | 1,733,256,237,310 | 1,733,256,237,310 | YES | 0.988148 | 11,011.218572 | Sports | Individual Sports |
B7qtNherBMWUKXsJnKTf | will-more-than-1000000-acres-burn-d | 🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season? | null | 1,704,584,761,991 | 1,727,727,152,784 | 1,727,727,152,784 | YES | 0.94 | 23,212.21241 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
HyryqQCIxdeRtx4GqfkN | will-the-time-person-of-the-year-be | Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024 | null | 1,701,872,376,014 | 1,734,008,751,263 | 1,734,008,751,263 | YES | 0.99 | 16,403.471145 | Celebrity & Pop Culture | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
sO6BXq85YhYQQv15O69F | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-b69eec529b40 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Nevada? | null | 1,690,201,245,204 | 1,731,180,852,221 | 1,731,180,852,221 | YES | 0.989988 | 2,956.982436 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
z5TjAZ3fM36xX4hBiOzl | will-ukraine-joins-nato-before-ther | Will Ukraine joins NATO before there is a new largest known Prime number? | null | 1,711,003,487,099 | 1,729,525,474,554 | 1,729,525,474,554 | NO | 0.01 | 10,865.197563 | Geopolitics | International Relations |
AzSMiekbJSExodltJhuq | will-a-team-with-less-than-90-wins | Will a team with less than 90 wins win the 2024 MLB NLCS? ⚾ National League Championship Series | null | 1,709,172,338,763 | 1,729,517,968,168 | 1,729,517,968,168 | NO | 0.01 | 1,377.959887 | Sports | Professional Sports |
7k9TISSStNJEH3hqYxAv | will-a-third-party-candidate-be-bla | Will a third party candidate be blamed in the concession speech of the 2024 US presidential race? | null | 1,711,229,271,177 | 1,735,677,064,862 | 1,735,677,064,862 | NO | 0.011467 | 10,005.951086 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lk0fi7Cd28d1oy0w28hz | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-elec | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election? | null | 1,668,290,611,929 | 1,730,793,600,000 | 1,730,938,176,786 | YES | 0.510782 | 5,642.456709 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
52urria26h | will-nikki-haley-replace-jd-vance-o | Will Nikki Haley replace JD Vance on the Republican ticket? | null | 1,722,025,887,173 | 1,730,819,932,680 | 1,730,819,932,680 | NO | 0.010541 | 1,082.866054 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yGMHIOxn8Ya60NyQeMq7 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-930c0e470f3a | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Arizona? | null | 1,690,201,179,007 | 1,731,331,740,000 | 1,731,340,343,877 | YES | 0.99 | 1,402.896858 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
hxz3wh5c6k | will-biden-save-harris-from-a-humil | Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING? | null | 1,727,918,391,408 | 1,730,872,740,000 | 1,730,872,872,191 | NO | 0.01 | 27,372.671924 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
uGpCfgPXpMctP75bcJUI | will-sam-altman-sue-openai | Will Sam altman sue openAI? | null | 1,700,256,252,104 | 1,732,559,340,000 | 1,732,827,861,734 | NO | 0.016629 | 6,189.246525 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
8hged09le0 | in-the-2024-united-states-president | In the 2024 United States presidential election, will the same party win all three of WI, MI, and PA? | null | 1,722,876,671,656 | 1,730,988,615,533 | 1,730,988,615,533 | YES | 0.99 | 1,624.651179 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
jq4xl0wb28 | will-moldovas-eu-membership-referen | Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass? | null | 1,729,424,288,380 | 1,730,156,998,983 | 1,730,156,998,983 | YES | 0.99 | 2,950.010591 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
iK63Ml0C1iSetZUZurhA | will-republicans-retain-control-of | Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections? | null | 1,674,782,871,622 | 1,731,379,586,053 | 1,731,379,586,053 | YES | 0.986718 | 11,199.820321 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1ahs26sicm | will-a-korean-team-win-worlds-2024 | Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends) | null | 1,729,090,493,537 | 1,730,587,367,821 | 1,730,587,367,821 | YES | 0.994526 | 17,545.797044 | Gaming | Esports |
y35osr7huo | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-i2q9us7obx | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them? | null | 1,719,164,591,501 | 1,727,793,463,405 | 1,727,793,463,405 | YES | 0.91 | 15,676.25688 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
z2PQZMJmaDg5yrXg6spV | will-at-least-six-candidates-win-at | Will at least six candidates win at least 1% of the national popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 1,696,882,904,283 | 1,731,380,854,226 | 1,731,380,854,226 | NO | 0.01 | 1,251.224959 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nv5364ex7h | will-the-2024-dnc-protests-be-serio | Will the 2024 DNC Protests be serious enough that a Wikipedia article is made about them? | null | 1,723,917,914,008 | 1,727,067,540,000 | 1,727,068,535,674 | NO | 0.01 | 1,353.496641 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qDbuhqu0WJsSIDHbR0Yz | will-2024-brazilian-municipal-elect | Will 2024 Brazilian municipal elections have more candidates with religious titles than 2020? | null | 1,681,004,387,422 | 1,728,672,740,414 | 1,728,672,740,414 | YES | 0.99 | 2,096.562661 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
aSBLsLBdHakRqZgZjvNt | will-a-democrat-win-an-absolute-maj | Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,694,708,907,146 | 1,730,906,559,449 | 1,730,906,559,449 | NO | 0.000013 | 44,884.329642 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
W2lTWDpvObmG62igsQtt | will-the-candidate-who-wins-michiga | Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,690,286,698,709 | 1,730,950,952,215 | 1,730,950,952,215 | YES | 0.989525 | 14,383.619219 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
9SU7r09zT4f6j4r7KGzZ | will-i-reach-an-unbroken-500-day-pr | Will I reach an unbroken 500 day prediction streak? | null | 1,695,824,451,015 | 1,733,115,540,000 | 1,733,672,220,697 | YES | 0.979025 | 5,893.599489 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
NU0QfRi8sBrEGBuw0ZTV | will-trump-be-in-a-state-of-incarce | Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024? | null | 1,688,228,279,740 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,730,904,846,677 | NO | 0.01 | 36,851.503285 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
D2DQcGvhDFM8AGpqdz2D | will-the-federal-reserve-cut-reduce | Will the federal reserve cut (reduce) interest rates before 2025? | null | 1,715,013,688,097 | 1,727,285,213,530 | 1,727,285,213,530 | YES | 0.99 | 19,894.893646 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
6bqwmcr4qz | will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru | Will Lincoln appear in presidential epic rap battle of History 2024 | null | 1,719,365,124,622 | 1,729,897,140,000 | 1,729,962,754,252 | NO | 0.48 | 1,434.543617 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
q4j5n5eRi2FlopIwxw3k | will-maines-second-congressional-me | Will Maine's second congressional district (ME-02) flip blue in 2024? | null | 1,695,013,353,006 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,934,554,048 | NO | 0.097788 | 2,424.42836 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
geho1z0o4z | will-belarus-fire-into-ukraine-terr | Will Belarus fire into Ukraine territory in 2024 | null | 1,723,390,355,613 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,688,114,588 | NO | 0.034643 | 4,912.437338 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
yDxUNFp4JexhMkeCh7t1 | will-jimmy-carter-die-before-king-c | Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III? | null | 1,711,240,036,069 | 1,735,674,597,321 | 1,735,674,597,321 | YES | 0.99 | 8,273.421857 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
uglASLdEly | how-will-the-how-will-the-will-trum | How will the "How will the "Will Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?" market resolve?" market resolve? | null | 1,733,031,795,116 | 1,733,838,181,658 | 1,733,838,181,658 | NO | 0.01753 | 1,151.349963 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
RtXZ8pAHDIqbBNkDqnKC | will-bill-gates-make-1-or-more-twee-9ea43df904fa | Will Bill Gates make 1 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Oct 2024? | null | 1,707,010,771,486 | 1,730,433,540,000 | 1,730,481,090,778 | NO | 0.01 | 2,659.559139 | Celebrity & Pop Culture | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
O9UOSIcEygHiZJ9RqgJm | will-joe-biden-win-the-nobel-peace | Will Joe Biden win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024? | null | 1,701,181,015,723 | 1,728,014,340,000 | 1,728,956,813,369 | NO | 0.01 | 19,489.96342 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lNzH6LADhbjLaIWljOsO | will-the-price-of-bitcoin-surpass-1 | Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025? | null | 1,704,864,854,620 | 1,733,371,048,540 | 1,733,371,048,540 | YES | 0.99 | 18,796.832266 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
w8qmtsh0tp | will-harris-lead-in-the-538-electio-rp355k8pzc | Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st? | null | 1,724,793,295,790 | 1,730,123,940,000 | 1,730,393,697,528 | NO | 0.038202 | 10,359.706852 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
a000521oe0 | metaculus-will-a-us-vice-presidenti-smsdn7uohy | [Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | null | 1,723,473,613,867 | 1,728,848,513,985 | 1,728,848,513,985 | YES | 0.99 | 9,108.838792 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
q3teq9qqk2 | will-september-2024-be-the-hottest-nvik7oaqdv | Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data) | null | 1,725,434,328,917 | 1,729,551,130,825 | 1,729,551,130,825 | NO | 0.01 | 1,316.918788 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
wNYcRF2ZvouoBcwf4LBr | will-djt-stock-close-at-over-75-any | Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024? | null | 1,711,484,306,157 | 1,735,622,170,010 | 1,735,622,170,010 | NO | 0.01 | 9,136.909687 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
LCqGYaBLA03Bqf19i2Wo | will-ftx-retail-investors-get-their | What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back? | null | 1,668,067,670,235 | 1,735,390,499,248 | 1,735,390,499,248 | YES | 0.970374 | 22,643.502295 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
l7mPHP4P0H5araicV5ve | -will-florida-guarantee-the-right-t | 🗳️🔫🎣 Ballot Props: Will Florida guarantee the right to hunt and fish in the state constitution? | null | 1,708,879,189,190 | 1,730,870,076,760 | 1,730,870,076,760 | YES | 0.973153 | 1,133.923501 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
Msj6cPTl9vVJedT4pkA9 | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-the-n | Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Prime Minister of Canada? | null | 1,711,555,516,624 | 1,735,516,264,784 | 1,735,516,264,784 | NO | 0.013389 | 1,409.272003 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
KsOtGPzFqvW9y0bPmYTS | will-perez-get-more-points-then-lec | Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | null | 1,713,793,233,390 | 1,732,451,044,734 | 1,732,451,045,736 | NO | 0.010661 | 12,626.070693 | Sports | Individual Sports |
gwWt6kX3xZjSTCAnqUbC | will-trump-be-convicted-in-federal-aa9f15f560f2 | Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election? | null | 1,686,274,622,330 | 1,730,824,577,757 | 1,730,824,577,757 | NO | 0.017443 | 37,376.799353 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
oqznalvnwx | will-israel-launch-a-full-ground-in-h78gttb7a7 | Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025? | null | 1,728,560,459,193 | 1,733,739,495,960 | 1,733,739,495,960 | YES | 0.8 | 24,882.170056 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
bfn9epzf6e | metaculus-will-youtube-be-banned-in | [Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | null | 1,723,127,585,542 | 1,727,880,816,335 | 1,727,880,816,335 | NO | null | 11,162.038334 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
2s8rh28nia | will-lafc-beat-sporting-kc-2024-lam | Will LAFC beat Sporting KC? ⚽ | 🏆 2024 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup | null | 1,725,212,241,527 | 1,727,350,045,957 | 1,727,350,045,957 | YES | 0.99 | 9,680.732406 | Sports | Team Sports |
mifxod5oqd | will-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-8czxfeg4uj | Will Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) close higher than $350, on 31st October 2024? | null | 1,728,681,018,985 | 1,730,419,140,000 | 1,730,420,824,192 | NO | 0.01 | 8,959.797752 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
v541i3v36m | nice-market | Nice market | null | 1,727,661,859,413 | 1,728,284,340,000 | 1,729,695,417,079 | NO | 0.01 | 1,245.358298 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
wzuvJsDqCm6gAX6lFjOr | will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024 | Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $900 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split) | null | 1,714,999,595,170 | 1,735,671,427,622 | 1,735,671,427,622 | YES | 0.988184 | 20,585.495514 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
mfkeikhxzz | will-anyone-attempt-to-assassinate | Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024? | null | 1,726,493,452,095 | 1,735,657,140,000 | 1,735,671,203,075 | NO | 0.014913 | 1,035.971864 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
qzgHqcM25tanXhyArECZ | will-fortnite-still-be-the-most-sea-a62b947c23fa | Will 'Fortnite' still be the most searched game term on Pornhub in 2024? | null | 1,702,590,783,443 | 1,734,757,140,000 | 1,734,758,799,926 | YES | 0.978755 | 1,504.350327 | Gaming | Gaming Culture |
t8pEkiHRJlHcTTlX6cj4 | will-manifold-hit-15k-dau-7day-aver | Will Manifold "hit 15k DAU (7-day average) by Sept 30th" 2024? (lol) | null | 1,710,544,942,555 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,734,259,652 | NO | 0.01 | 2,793.524244 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
9XKhU6UFXvW09Wtklwb0 | conditional-on-a-republican-winning | Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote? | null | 1,690,391,794,787 | 1,733,032,740,000 | 1,733,044,180,103 | YES | 0.99 | 7,034.984685 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
z7QQ2LOkrBuHLAorN8z0 | will-vincent-keymer-be-ranked-in-th-7ae0579912dd | Will Vincent Keymer be ranked in the top 5 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024? | null | 1,705,487,866,720 | 1,734,053,266,355 | 1,734,053,266,355 | NO | 0.01 | 13,052.673688 | Sports | Individual Sports |
8l0n8xq0rJciWSMXdNRs | will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp-444282aeb96c | Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2024? | null | 1,699,748,172,354 | 1,733,568,294,734 | 1,733,568,294,734 | YES | 0.989989 | 1,239.797237 | Politics | Government Structure |
hcqj6tk5cl | will-the-feds-lower-rates-a-second | Will the Feds lower rates a second time in 2024? | null | 1,726,710,352,911 | 1,731,040,641,130 | 1,731,040,641,130 | YES | 0.99 | 1,169.945466 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
UGuNEUtNpZdFEO0wEt5R | will-they-give-shadow-the-hedgehog | Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie? | null | 1,713,753,361,854 | 1,734,712,834,627 | 1,734,712,834,627 | YES | 0.979672 | 10,234.407748 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
vH37oTY7EeewyGbVpGHc | will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-c2da2973e74e | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024? | null | 1,709,480,841,138 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,185,289 | NO | 0.022093 | 1,828.362974 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
ehq38vbvh9 | will-kamala-harris-have-a-higher-pr | Will Kamala Harris have a higher probability on the Sweepcash market than the Mana market on 10/1/24? | null | 1,726,614,969,406 | 1,727,852,340,000 | 1,735,343,545,018 | NO | 0.27 | 1,175.992497 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
s1ics6d5lv | polymarketlinked-will-ukraine-hit-m | [Polymarket-linked] Will Ukraine hit Moscow or the Crimean Bridge before October (2.0)? | null | 1,725,580,237,356 | 1,727,765,940,000 | 1,727,828,626,706 | NO | 0.01 | 1,651.111311 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
3fOP3bD5ATmNKTD3jpFO | will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-8ac5db413a81 | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | null | 1,710,308,160,126 | 1,730,867,681,547 | 1,730,867,681,547 | NO | 0.017668 | 3,261.77643 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
Ly0ZcIEhUS | will-the-pa-secretary-of-state-cert | Will the PA Secretary of State certify David McCormick as the winner of the 2024 senate election? | null | 1,731,967,508,948 | 1,732,235,870,060 | 1,732,235,870,060 | YES | 0.949386 | 3,331 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
gk1o1zc5g4 | will-manifold-return-mana-loans-bef | Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024? | null | 1,727,873,030,883 | 1,733,573,580,312 | 1,733,573,580,312 | YES | 0.992394 | 20,667.064378 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
9ghDMaR9PGTcD3NCEAOY | will-the-us-federal-government-char | Will the US federal government charge McKinsey criminally for its role in promoting opioid use? | null | 1,714,006,508,395 | 1,734,309,360,000 | 1,734,328,346,184 | YES | 0.99 | 1,811.965948 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
FwqSadG0HFW5pGOc9w4s | will-michigan-vote-more-republican | Will Michigan vote more Republican than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,709,326,847,406 | 1,731,283,814,415 | 1,731,283,814,415 | NO | 0.05184 | 1,348.870915 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
TDuvEPO3tb56UjIX8Qij | nfl-week-15-dec-12-2024-will-the-sa | NFL Week 15 (Dec 12 2024): Will the San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)? | null | 1,715,834,545,103 | 1,734,140,223,029 | 1,734,140,223,029 | NO | 0.006944 | 1,314.177868 | Sports | Professional Sports |
0xh6fc1pg8 | metaculus-what-is-the-probability-t | [Metaculus] What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point bet...and next meeting (10/10)? | null | 1,728,243,696,555 | 1,728,684,000,000 | 1,728,848,612,073 | NO | 0.01 | 8,949 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ivAxuMoJn5Y9cwHwjkzi | will-manifold-introduce-any-incenti | Will manifold introduce any incentives for betting on long term markets this year? | null | 1,714,037,801,947 | 1,733,505,842,186 | 1,733,505,842,186 | YES | 0.99 | 7,780.792065 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
n4W3a6gOE4O9fYqq6Pg5 | the-us-fed-will-do-a-rate-cut-befor | The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election. | null | 1,690,452,488,591 | 1,727,222,991,592 | 1,727,222,991,592 | YES | 0.99 | 38,841.860906 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
fplb5cjab0 | will-harris-or-walz-work-at-mcdonal | Will Harris or Walz work at McDonald’s before the election? | null | 1,729,506,696,218 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,870,713,451 | NO | 0.01 | 10,272.287467 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lVSCGQiUgAkk1Q0ztoEb | will-bitcoin-reach-100000 | Will Bitcoin reach $100000 | null | 1,704,308,790,108 | 1,733,489,072,366 | 1,733,489,072,366 | YES | 0.998739 | 35,787.633617 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
P04rgDVZclNkcAdPZYu0 | will-any-of-biden-trump-or-mira-be-9c3dc98ad728 | Will any of Biden, Trump, or @Mira be elected president in 2024? | null | 1,709,157,231,118 | 1,731,285,041,750 | 1,731,285,041,750 | YES | 0.99 | 9,731.019431 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yaxFUesYgkYmBrRFShtU | will-aigenerated-text-suggestions-b-416a5d9fabd4 | Will AI-generated text suggestions be publicly available on Microsoft Outlook by end of 2024? | null | 1,673,215,767,322 | 1,734,811,393,511 | 1,734,811,393,511 | YES | 0.974033 | 1,673.188281 | Technology | Computing & Software |
pchwKMnbqBuYfZvzqHiT | will-demis-hassabis-win-a-nobel-pri | Will Demis Hassabis win a Nobel prize? | null | 1,691,950,375,280 | 1,728,479,966,496 | 1,728,479,966,496 | YES | 0.99 | 1,345.187574 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
Z7yQiyj6GWtbUQACxEld | will-a-manifold-celebrity-appear-on | Will a Manifold celebrity appear on the Joe Rogan Experience by EOY 2024? | null | 1,712,051,593,998 | 1,730,913,531,715 | 1,730,913,531,715 | YES | 0.985647 | 9,718.854111 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW | will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat | Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024? | null | 1,717,455,788,487 | 1,730,783,837,005 | 1,730,783,837,005 | NO | 0.013144 | 55,083.115217 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
zJswumDJHZJ6qfc4uTDI | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-799138703e51 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height? | null | 1,658,847,258,409 | 1,731,090,553,088 | 1,731,090,553,088 | YES | 0.99 | 3,107.360035 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2eV6rBteIBspexWdkhc4 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-445a123e528c | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Hampshire? | null | 1,690,201,613,764 | 1,730,963,258,012 | 1,730,963,258,012 | NO | 0.01 | 1,037.417885 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
DkglFDF7K7DOVhapb92J | will-russia-issue-an-ultimatum-this | Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons? | null | 1,711,393,902,729 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,687,783,266 | NO | 0.01812 | 7,837.369408 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
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