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TVuPwa6aKF0dARLQO10u | will-alyssa-farah-run-for-any-offic | Will Alyssa Farah run for any office in 2024? | null | 1,681,616,126,069 | 1,733,993,819,145 | 1,733,993,819,145 | NO | 0.010097 | 13,850.483987 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
xtgv88jhfc | daily-coinflip-la9hr84ero | Daily coinflip | null | 1,729,569,968,481 | 1,729,742,340,000 | 1,729,742,612,752 | YES | 0.49 | 4,698.017455 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ge2U9EQO6QOVgUyYPMmv | will-the-los-angees-angels-make-the | Will the Los Angeles Angels make the 2024 postseason? | null | 1,713,743,130,313 | 1,727,334,149,127 | 1,727,334,149,127 | NO | 0.01 | 1,515.961276 | Sports | Professional Sports |
dpoKZWNjhsctQ8GWMxuw | will-the-palestinian-authority-take | Will the Palestinian Authority take over Gaza deposing Hamas by the end of September 2024 ? | null | 1,697,033,917,157 | 1,727,668,740,000 | 1,727,887,683,499 | NO | 0.01 | 1,307.806772 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
1mRMNkXL9Vrbns2lXBTz | will-the-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-4538fa41c159 | Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger? | null | 1,705,763,537,896 | 1,735,233,350,944 | 1,735,233,350,944 | NO | 0.094816 | 4,690.027519 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
mfu5y57wdq | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-jnhh7rxjpb | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1130 and 1131? | null | 1,728,413,362,775 | 1,728,914,294,359 | 1,728,914,309,481 | YES | 0.92 | 3,051 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
V9mUtMRTpzxhTHGDCE3J | will-egan-bernal-win-a-professional | Will Egan Bernal win a professional race he competes against Jonas Vingegaard, in the 2024 UCI season? | null | 1,706,688,047,662 | 1,729,621,724,185 | 1,729,621,724,185 | NO | 0.02 | 1,902.919386 | Sports | Individual Sports |
haoUKaAH1h7t6BKq19Ee | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-before-jan-1s | Will Bitcoin hit 100k before Jan 1st 2025? | null | 1,697,151,258,909 | 1,733,418,899,659 | 1,733,418,899,659 | YES | 0.997468 | 27,692.017236 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
TDBoeeOV0XkFi7fil08l | will-trump-lose-but-not-concede-the | Will Trump lose but not concede the next presidential election, and hold a rally in Washington DC on January 6 2025? | null | 1,701,191,340,386 | 1,730,962,558,920 | 1,730,962,558,920 | NO | 0.01 | 20,499.810568 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yjlbpfj6t3 | will-anyone-be-able-to-get-openais | Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024? | null | 1,726,176,926,163 | 1,734,331,249,243 | 1,734,331,254,770 | YES | 0.959635 | 22,680.846671 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
9fyaavlivp | will-bidens-approval-rating-be-40-o-b82p33zhqf | Will Biden's approval rating be 40% or higher at the end of September 2024? | null | 1,725,140,827,761 | 1,727,732,760,000 | 1,727,735,863,408 | YES | 0.99 | 2,054.544293 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
0wSyyKuZ0atHDj5N4A1D | will-moana-2-be-at-least-as-highly | Will Moana 2 be at least as highly rated on RottenTomatoes as Moana? | null | 1,707,402,005,700 | 1,733,385,540,000 | 1,733,873,385,172 | NO | 0.01 | 2,301.611837 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
silus6r4p9 | will-400-of-manifold-users-agree-th | Will >= 40.0% of Manifold users agree that weak AGI has been achieved in October 2024? | null | 1,727,784,422,622 | 1,729,655,940,000 | 1,730,460,438,386 | NO | 0.063264 | 7,376.467231 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
xdwIrS1AIPJ5YFOMwGAo | will-manifold-demote-any-prize-mark | Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024) | null | 1,716,959,760,896 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,655,761,761 | NO | 0.04981 | 8,475.669081 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
tUI0A6QSpO | will-mark-farrell-win-the-2024-san--cash | Will Mark Farrell win the 2024 San Francisco Mayor's race? | null | 1,729,873,528,213 | 1,731,050,883,333 | 1,731,050,883,333 | NO | 0.010029 | 1,343.12523 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qXunDU7JeiEULwfgaqMf | will-i-get-vigorous-exercise-at-lea | Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024? | null | 1,704,148,913,720 | 1,730,861,382,180 | 1,730,861,382,180 | NO | 0.33 | 4,402.635553 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
5p9YV3NzSvwn0KrBYZ2W | will-notre-dame-cathedral-in-paris | Will Notre Dame cathedral in Paris reopen to the public on Dec 8th, 2024? | null | 1,703,995,586,691 | 1,733,726,563,267 | 1,733,726,563,267 | YES | 0.988516 | 6,340.450033 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
K1ZdeejNvuvAhx9V5W9W | will-any-company-produce-a-publicly | Will any company produce a publicly available AGI model before December 31st 2024? | null | 1,708,648,751,870 | 1,725,147,300,000 | 1,733,611,155,406 | NO | 0.025909 | 2,940.909143 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
qt3gdfmssh | will-california-require-cars-to-war | Will California require cars to warn drivers for excessive speeding? (SB 961 2024) | null | 1,726,607,450,578 | 1,727,644,942,022 | 1,727,644,942,022 | NO | 0.01 | 9,868.310064 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
UqEyt5SsEg | daily-coinflip-gZddIyZc6n | Daily coinflip 🎉 | null | 1,733,474,086,368 | 1,733,806,740,000 | 1,733,815,371,157 | YES | 0.5 | 9,595.219432 | ENTERTAINMENT | GAMING |
onaz0aqbqg | will-democrats-flip-any-governorshi | Will Democrats flip any governorships? | null | 1,727,192,472,647 | 1,730,998,544,363 | 1,730,998,544,363 | NO | 0.062672 | 2,136.740548 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
h69yncSzhs | will-the-jet-propulsion-laboratory | Will the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have a layoff large enough to trigger the WARN Act during the week 11/10/24-11/16/24? | null | 1,731,299,108,627 | 1,731,558,791,872 | 1,731,558,791,872 | YES | 0.987011 | 3,146.82188 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
mpzDZijQxJFtlgkaQfZG | will-marjorie-taylor-greene-run-for | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene run for President in 2024? | null | 1,665,544,456,154 | 1,729,976,743,113 | 1,729,976,743,113 | NO | 0.02 | 2,233.453011 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1ofxi6ppvn | will-rfk-jr-finish-second-in-any-st | Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 1,718,387,154,021 | 1,730,912,050,774 | 1,730,912,050,774 | NO | 0.00121 | 88,831.588084 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
wpoxbx5zb | will-conservative-party-members-vot | Will Conservative party members vote in the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election? | null | 1,720,604,517,379 | 1,729,582,261,795 | 1,729,582,261,795 | YES | 0.99 | 8,969.534007 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
7HtUYqt5dFZGmGbYD18t | will-nintendo-legally-go-after-palw-98389633dcbe | Will Nintendo Legally go after Palworld before Taylor Swift gets engaged/married? | null | 1,706,991,555,729 | 1,726,704,560,290 | 1,726,704,560,290 | YES | 0.9 | 3,169.68071 | Entertainment | Gaming |
hewgGX3vUjCZR5WqcB2a | in-a-year-will-we-think-that-sam-al | In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk? | null | 1,700,254,452,538 | 1,732,521,540,000 | 1,732,667,946,762 | NO | 0.142155 | 211,028.255653 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
DXZL1ZDLe0eqAGtJsEg9 | will-there-be-a-new-largest-known-p | Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2026? | null | 1,711,003,397,442 | 1,729,525,446,587 | 1,729,525,446,587 | YES | 0.99 | 18,644.640071 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
O5LNdZLuhl | will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c--cash | Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024? | null | 1,734,638,014,041 | 1,734,761,152,248 | 1,734,761,450,844 | YES | 0.99 | 3,207.337953 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
2tQS4HN0vBA5035FNJ9W | will-selzer-outpredict-silver-in-th | Will Selzer out-predict Silver in the 2024 Iowa presidential election? | null | 1,684,613,538,715 | 1,730,947,746,900 | 1,730,947,746,900 | NO | 0.01455 | 3,867.629483 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-a7458cd40409 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960 | null | 1,658,767,435,267 | 1,731,652,321,635 | 1,731,652,321,635 | YES | 0.99 | 12,050.613833 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
EQJeMPI7uNGOLiL0KEKv | will-tesla-stock-have-a-new-all-tim | Will Tesla stock have a new all time high before 2040? | null | 1,681,944,596,740 | 1,734,049,242,863 | 1,734,049,242,863 | YES | 0.963589 | 3,571.824662 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
wPLuVqqX5EQPFZToSWjM | will-verstappen-get-more-points-the | Will Verstappen get more Points then Perez in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | null | 1,713,793,856,000 | 1,732,450,906,862 | 1,732,450,907,254 | YES | 0.99 | 1,221.875384 | Sports | Individual Sports |
TL5pYGbHUTncrwDL7KaS | will-ron-desantis-be-outed-as-gay-b | Will Ron Desantis be outed as gay by the end of 2024? | null | 1,675,784,811,279 | 1,735,677,003,578 | 1,735,677,003,578 | NO | 0.011345 | 5,495.540762 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
IyU6X618SJDzOFzC4nzN | will-there-be-a-political-banner-on | Will there be a political banner on top of the React.dev website by the end of 2024? | null | 1,711,438,458,965 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,687,083,800 | NO | 0.096105 | 2,258.241464 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
g87oBWpeuVBPfpihdEmE | will-a-japanese-development-studio | Will a Japanese development studio win Game of the Year at the 2024 game awards? | null | 1,704,146,909,430 | 1,734,078,788,087 | 1,734,078,788,087 | YES | 0.99 | 1,324.947638 | Gaming | Gaming |
AI9dLRg5At | will-sergio-perez-be-one-of-red-bul | Will Sergio Perez be one of Red Bull Racing’s two main drivers at the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season? | null | 1,730,507,206,577 | 1,734,543,673,884 | 1,734,543,673,884 | NO | 0.01016 | 1,919.110606 | Sports | Professional Sports |
NgSu50EQAg | polymarket-will-either-candidate-co | [Polymarket] Will either candidate concede in November? | null | 1,730,552,025,519 | 1,731,052,740,000 | 1,731,076,532,765 | YES | 0.99 | 22,391.185605 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
fg6ruqku3z | will-donald-trump-receive-less-than | Will Donald Trump receive less than 40% of the military vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | null | 1,726,597,502,649 | 1,731,089,717,001 | 1,731,089,717,001 | NO | 0.162276 | 1,945.659057 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI | if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr | If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? | null | 1,642,268,585,570 | 1,730,678,399,000 | 1,730,914,630,100 | NO | 0.506378 | 20,406.686659 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
dMj0MKmumcVGbTtpSD9X | elon-musk-and-a-current-or-former-u | Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025 | null | 1,717,119,185,803 | 1,731,088,884,125 | 1,731,088,884,125 | YES | 0.973058 | 5,665.603188 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
oqjpmccn22 | will-there-be-an-orgy-that-i-hear-a | Will there be an orgy (that I hear about) at Love Symposium 2024? | null | 1,728,442,014,000 | 1,732,175,940,000 | 1,732,176,669,586 | NO | 0.019518 | 7,421.934626 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
CdlHl7809EKXbt6wnsA1 | will-there-be-a-no-labels-ticket-on | Will there be a “No Labels” ticket on the ballot in over 25 states in the 2024 US general presidential election? | null | 1,693,609,343,246 | 1,731,241,808,927 | 1,731,241,808,927 | NO | 0.010064 | 7,128.548411 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
O56c3rSmxAc9WrHOL9Ye | will-secret-service-protection-be-w | Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November? | null | 1,717,515,299,033 | 1,730,784,077,022 | 1,730,784,077,022 | NO | 0.010475 | 1,093.928522 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nf7Di70DAJgH7Xt7EZnm | will-red-bull-win-16-or-more-races | Will Red Bull win 16 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | null | 1,708,319,647,173 | 1,729,525,502,393 | 1,729,525,502,393 | NO | 0.01 | 3,426.430281 | Sports | Professional Sports |
6StUuRN5SC | will-game-9-of-the-fide-world-champ-IAAcdtggNP | Will Game 12 of the FIDE World Champion Gukesh vs Ding, result in a draw? | null | 1,733,732,085,555 | 1,733,748,926,944 | 1,733,748,926,944 | NO | 0.023006 | 6,423 | Sports | Individual Sports |
hTrtj54jedrM73b4HfaQ | will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-a3db2c69e347 | Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Mario Kart 8 Deluxe' at any point before 2025? | null | 1,684,688,017,315 | 1,735,661,584,924 | 1,735,661,584,924 | NO | 0.010001 | 6,918.475076 | Entertainment | Gaming |
hESEUhlyU0 | did-luigi-mangione-author-the-manif | Did Luigi Mangione author the manifesto 'The Allopathic Complex and Its Consequences' posted on Substack? | null | 1,733,804,749,653 | 1,733,879,830,272 | 1,733,972,620,810 | NO | 0.074283 | 3,255 | Books & Literature | Books & Literature |
cWDUwgjCUATGTIRGOU2F | -will-salt-lake-city-get-a-national | 🏒 Will Salt Lake City get a National Hockey League team before 2030? | null | 1,710,641,008,731 | 1,728,626,213,184 | 1,728,626,213,184 | YES | 0.99 | 3,528.899576 | Sports | Professional Sports |
7vou8eir9o | will-manifold-stop-forcing-sweepsta | Will Manifold stop forcing Sweepstakes markets on the home page by default? (by the end of september) | null | 1,727,159,941,699 | 1,727,277,352,133 | 1,727,277,352,133 | YES | 0.99 | 19,994.540723 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
YEVaoZcP05pqHx0FHuGi | will-openai-have-a-valuation-either | Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024? | null | 1,673,041,878,140 | 1,727,901,086,402 | 1,727,901,086,402 | YES | 0.98 | 25,749.97046 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
YYa1WtIvYYaspWRWfz2O | will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-3f2c61348f2f | Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 50,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)? | null | 1,710,913,624,491 | 1,731,622,632,542 | 1,731,622,632,542 | NO | 0.01 | 2,999.011102 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ndNsdd9CpC | new-york-proposition-1-2024-passes | New York Proposition 1 (2024) Passes | null | 1,730,429,664,542 | 1,730,864,804,985 | 1,730,864,804,985 | YES | 0.98857 | 8,300 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
rCey8oljqnbA0833RMvD | -will-apple-announce-a-watch-with-s | 🩺 Will Apple announce a watch with some kind of blood-pressure monitoring in 2024? | null | 1,710,773,048,442 | 1,735,686,984,840 | 1,735,686,984,840 | NO | 0.025357 | 15,478.778239 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
Ey6zPzCO29 | will-kamala-harris-win-the-national | Will Kamala Harris win the national popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did? | null | 1,730,480,183,397 | 1,730,882,711,810 | 1,730,882,711,810 | NO | 0.018146 | 38,940.092098 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nISAQzIyRl | will-the-presidential-election-get | Will the Presidential Election get called before Pennsylvania? | null | 1,730,427,254,056 | 1,730,986,989,864 | 1,730,986,989,864 | NO | 0.01 | 32,287.673819 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
0n36mvqkhz | will-kamala-harris-say-the-phrase-b | Will Kamala Harris say the phrase "Build a wall around Windsor, Colorado" in any context? | null | 1,728,362,630,439 | 1,731,481,140,000 | 1,731,561,572,984 | NO | 0.01 | 17,513.521138 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
z79hy538jl | will-my-pixel-9-fold-be-money-well | Will my Pixel 9 Fold be money well spent? | null | 1,724,625,960,279 | 1,734,010,795,948 | 1,734,010,795,948 | YES | 0.979054 | 8,948.219349 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
c262S55CRp | will-kamala-harris-win-north-caroli | Will Kamala Harris win North Carolina? | null | 1,730,730,305,162 | 1,731,090,408,322 | 1,731,090,408,322 | NO | 0.01 | 1,147.356891 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
5CRgsd6Und | did-donald-trump-grope-a-teenager | Did Donald Trump grope a teenager? | null | 1,729,722,632,083 | 1,730,786,340,000 | 1,730,806,330,106 | NO | 0.022927 | 15,348.390449 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
4qp471u7qu | will-nadu-winged-wisdom-be-banned-i-6prtu5t217 | Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in Brawl by October? | null | 1,720,036,573,010 | 1,727,848,740,000 | 1,727,853,166,407 | NO | 0.01 | 13,965.202154 | Gaming | undefined |
HgjLxdArJf6pvkv8Dp39 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-logan-sa-a4b2a3011a5c | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Logan Sargeant finish last in the Drivers Championship? | null | 1,700,757,657,066 | 1,733,685,735,117 | 1,733,685,735,117 | YES | 0.983775 | 15,351.753669 | Sports | Individual Sports |
i8b78fvhuu | will-the-first-confirmed-capture-of | Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,503,923,212 | 1,735,417,044,803 | 1,735,417,044,803 | YES | 0.843127 | 47,486.056343 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
jxrydqvnok | -shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-6xhy97g7dx | 🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | null | 1,726,927,761,270 | 1,726,942,160,660 | 1,726,942,246,737 | NO | null | 1,233.351704 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
SqwWxDNXqt4nCGjLTZKZ | will-there-be-more-candidates-with | Will there be more candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names in the 2024 Brazilian elections compared to 2020? | null | 1,681,003,503,559 | 1,730,399,396,481 | 1,730,399,396,481 | NO | 0.016058 | 12,683.138828 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NGb4UXMJl9JunauGvV17 | will-openai-raise-over-5b-in-total | Will OpenAI raise over $5B in total venture funding by the end of 2024? | null | 1,673,041,658,581 | 1,727,901,054,493 | 1,727,901,054,493 | YES | 0.98 | 5,866.784129 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
tXvOwtYZQC0mrXfptM3n | will-helldivers-2-be-awarded-game-o | Will Helldivers 2 be awarded Game of the Year? | null | 1,711,311,418,691 | 1,732,049,126,247 | 1,732,049,126,247 | NO | 0.010002 | 12,822.818211 | Gaming | Gaming |
QLVGrny7AsAh2M0P2GgN | will-a-republican-win-minnesota-in | Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,686,274,736,572 | 1,730,879,548,020 | 1,730,879,548,020 | NO | 0.088631 | 3,890.616015 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
IpUqc5tycC | will-the-baltimore-ravens-claw-the-pZy6AI0h2u | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Houston Texans? 🏈|🎅 (Christmas Day) | null | 1,734,024,844,647 | 1,735,178,410,788 | 1,735,178,410,788 | YES | 0.99 | 9,090.83137 | Sports | Team Sports |
zIIOIZuSlZ | will-bitcoin-hit-105k-in-december | Will Bitcoin hit $105K in December? | null | 1,734,050,996,095 | 1,734,307,540,122 | 1,734,307,540,122 | YES | 0.99 | 1,770.135345 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
T6RAPzUgyn3H1ui79YrQ | will-the-tipping-point-state-in-the | Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%? | null | 1,686,112,921,501 | 1,731,473,305,474 | 1,731,473,305,474 | NO | 0.01 | 31,874.477352 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,670,450,667,281 | 1,730,761,200,000 | 1,730,883,273,851 | YES | 0.499907 | 3,750,751.084689 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
h2f1fj7v1r | will-democrats-win-oregon-by-15-per | Will Democrats win Oregon by 15 percent or more in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,112,838,310 | 1,733,338,111,375 | 1,733,338,111,375 | NO | 0.120831 | 2,043 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe | will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr | Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024? | null | 1,640,703,303,623 | 1,730,931,473,254 | 1,730,931,473,254 | YES | 0.99 | 20,260.78185 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
chhhr8skv | will-ukraine-armed-forces-reach-the | Will Ukraine armed forces reach the Seim river around Glushkovo and Tyotkino by December 2024? | null | 1,724,227,112,718 | 1,732,928,340,000 | 1,733,386,567,817 | NO | 0.013998 | 2,577.857561 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
pzKI4MB7HaaaNQkPOWQJ | will-republicans-gain-control-of-th | Will Republicans gain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2024 election? | null | 1,709,221,045,422 | 1,730,847,540,000 | 1,730,913,454,378 | YES | 0.803856 | 1,718.198871 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
rayndg3srp | will-the-us-lift-restrictions-on-uk | Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia? Aka "Deep Strikes"? | null | 1,724,761,882,993 | 1,732,351,303,270 | 1,732,351,303,270 | YES | 0.965835 | 67,686.196264 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
f628UWN9qpc9wo27PwrT | will-any-opensource-model-rank-in-t | Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024? | null | 1,703,600,784,392 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,272,323 | NO | 0.048973 | 4,245.490343 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
3Kg9TzE7LkeTbgFd4d4h | will-rick-scott-win-reelection-in-t | Will Rick Scott win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Florida? | null | 1,680,633,750,446 | 1,731,289,436,570 | 1,731,289,436,570 | YES | 0.990853 | 2,381.680493 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8y5uLqs5pq | tug-of-war-lRpIlzzy99 | Tug of war | null | 1,733,677,589,046 | 1,733,806,740,000 | 1,733,839,633,476 | NO | 0.312441 | 2,427.279285 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
354DVfMGdTaWHyu4tabF | will-the-next-major-announcement-ab | Will the next major announcement about Jimmy Carter's health be his death? | null | 1,711,125,810,015 | 1,735,517,480,897 | 1,735,517,480,897 | YES | 0.99 | 11,482.602607 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
3tx8nmAGGQriYaCfrnDo | will-i-walk-5-million-steps-in-2024 | Will I walk 5 million steps in 2024 | null | 1,707,634,598,761 | 1,735,544,376,138 | 1,735,544,376,138 | YES | 0.955069 | 7,365.316674 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ULpYWCagL8gSeeOyxKul | will-the-nasdaq-composite-index-fal | Will the NASDAQ Composite Index fall below 13,000 by the end of September 2024? | null | 1,709,832,977,956 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,760,454,798 | NO | 0.01 | 2,357.264588 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
pUBw0uFIpWxlHE90m3I1 | will-someone-strengthen-our-goodhar | Will someone strengthen our Goodhart's Law result? | null | 1,684,614,073,202 | 1,711,954,740,000 | 1,729,018,351,930 | NO | 0.12 | 1,312.708854 | Technology | Computing & Software |
eD6mOL25408wS2VkZikE | will-the-winner-of-2024-us-presiden | Will the winner of 2024 US presidential election be less than 6ft (183cm) tall? | null | 1,693,847,134,073 | 1,730,887,630,636 | 1,730,887,630,636 | NO | 0.448195 | 1,299.403135 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
7do87q375n | will-manifold-have-100k-in-mana-sal | Will Manifold have $100k in mana sales before the election following our sweepstakes launch? | null | 1,726,622,405,646 | 1,730,497,655,198 | 1,730,497,655,198 | YES | 0.977139 | 72,774.285443 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
7MJVbMPdT7dL8vYVQf7L | will-donald-trump-publicly-condemn | Will Donald Trump publicly condemn the death of Alexei Navalny before Election Day? | null | 1,708,309,012,547 | 1,730,782,740,000 | 1,730,787,384,647 | NO | 0.016569 | 8,965.256563 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
MAKBjUL2JfSPp9oibm5X | will-the-new-york-yankees-win-more-499c823e4499 | Will the New York Yankees win more games than the New York Mets in the 2024 MLB season? | null | 1,709,570,709,590 | 1,727,662,814,494 | 1,727,662,814,494 | YES | 0.99 | 2,442.256755 | Sports | Team Sports |
c0PyyOCEq9 | daniel-penny-serves-no-time-or-trum | Daniel Penny serves no time or Trump pardons him by mid 2026 | null | 1,731,459,522,332 | 1,733,794,214,478 | 1,733,794,214,478 | YES | 0.971935 | 5,764.197295 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
3DXAyR1kNHyokAdy3JqC | experimental-how-will-bitcoin-prefo | How will Bitcoin preform in 2024? | null | 1,709,615,740,134 | 1,733,367,479,879 | 1,733,367,479,879 | YES | 0.99 | 17,642.655549 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
i05d48l0bd | is-manifold-leagues-cohort-randomiz | Is Manifold Leagues' cohort randomization coded to put friends and people with similar trading interests together? | null | 1,727,980,134,451 | 1,728,619,140,000 | 1,728,664,220,376 | NO | 0.01 | 9,394.340863 | Technology | Computing & Software |
pt1byeeqfg | will-the-first-question-of-the-2024 | Will the first question of the 2024 Vice Presidential debate be about the Iran-Israel war? | null | 1,727,805,097,313 | 1,727,836,866,885 | 1,727,836,866,885 | YES | 0.99 | 11,791.636751 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
97qiy1j0pe | will-jd-vance-still-be-trumps-vp-ca | Will JD Vance still be Trump's VP candidate on election day? | null | 1,721,717,902,408 | 1,730,847,540,000 | 1,730,906,524,782 | YES | 0.99 | 2,965.617373 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
MwDowHgEN26Kq2no0qO3 | will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-wh | Will Donald Trump still be alive when September ends? | null | 1,710,880,221,860 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,734,475,930 | YES | 0.99 | 7,467.24551 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
vQNwkXqkw93PKAu4mgQ0 | the-mens-official-marathon-world-re | The men's official marathon world record time will be under 2 hours by the end of 2024 | null | 1,697,356,624,291 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,670,621,057 | NO | 0.021429 | 7,828.594471 | Sports | Individual Sports |
gNqd80plCz | will-this-market-get-at-least-30-un | Will this market get at least 30 unique traders? | null | 1,733,179,736,807 | 1,733,236,860,462 | 1,733,236,860,462 | YES | 0.989216 | 10,120.717437 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
fnvex5kmbj | israel-military-response-against-ir | Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | null | 1,727,868,174,745 | 1,728,141,759,305 | 1,728,141,759,305 | NO | 0.01 | 1,144.948542 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
p4rxBVmoh58MwnMtnP1a | will-online-gambling-be-a-notable-i | Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates? | null | 1,671,748,574,698 | 1,730,678,340,000 | 1,730,753,442,669 | NO | 0.010111 | 9,743.577499 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
yq1fopdl66 | will-a-new-york-team-win-the-world--cash | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | null | 1,729,696,798,171 | 1,730,346,749,265 | 1,730,492,978,773 | NO | 0.010458 | 1,310.408991 | Sports | Professional Sports |
MlMo8Kz2b7HKZbKfGueP | will-china-invade-taiwan-in-the-202-54683401eb26 | Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 October window? | null | 1,704,383,865,639 | 1,730,501,940,000 | 1,730,529,342,029 | NO | 0.01 | 1,815.960474 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
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