question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
One month from Today will there be an official release date for the next Game of Thrones book Winds of Winter? | NO |
Will Scott claim the Cat's Cradle review in the 2024 ACX book review contest? | NO |
Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election? | YES |
Will US Supreme Court grant a stay, overrule have official hearing on election law challenges before November election? | YES |
Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 10 on Halloween? | NO |
Will all pixel watches get wearOS 5 on the pixel watch 3 release? | YES |
Will Ding Liren play in the next World Chess Championship match? | YES |
Manifold lottery 1 in 20 chance | NO |
Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024? | NO |
[Short fuse] Will "Moana 2" gross >$200 million during its 5-day domestic opening weekend? | YES |
Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description) | NO |
One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive? | YES |
Will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler win The Showdown on December 17? | YES |
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $30 USD this year ? | NO |
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points? | YES |
NFL Week 6 (Oct 13): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | NO |
Did Deep Sea Vision really discover Amelia Earhart's plane? | NO |
Will Tommy Devito start more games for the New York Giants than Daniel Jones, in the Calendar Year of 2024? | NO |
Will both Demi Vollering and Lotte Kopecky ride for Team SD Worx ProTime in 2025? | NO |
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Detroit Lions? 🏈|🦃 (12:30pm) | NO |
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | YES |
Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $50000? | YES |
Will Carlos Sainz score more podium finishes in 2024 than George Russell? | YES |
🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season? | YES |
Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024 | YES |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Nevada? | YES |
Will Ukraine joins NATO before there is a new largest known Prime number? | NO |
Will a team with less than 90 wins win the 2024 MLB NLCS? ⚾ National League Championship Series | NO |
Will a third party candidate be blamed in the concession speech of the 2024 US presidential race? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election? | YES |
Will Nikki Haley replace JD Vance on the Republican ticket? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Arizona? | YES |
Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING? | NO |
Will Sam altman sue openAI? | NO |
In the 2024 United States presidential election, will the same party win all three of WI, MI, and PA? | YES |
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass? | YES |
Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections? | YES |
Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends) | YES |
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them? | YES |
Will at least six candidates win at least 1% of the national popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | NO |
Will the 2024 DNC Protests be serious enough that a Wikipedia article is made about them? | NO |
Will 2024 Brazilian municipal elections have more candidates with religious titles than 2020? | YES |
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | NO |
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election? | YES |
Will I reach an unbroken 500 day prediction streak? | YES |
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024? | NO |
Will the federal reserve cut (reduce) interest rates before 2025? | YES |
Will Lincoln appear in presidential epic rap battle of History 2024 | NO |
Will Maine's second congressional district (ME-02) flip blue in 2024? | NO |
Will Belarus fire into Ukraine territory in 2024 | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III? | YES |
How will the "How will the "Will Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?" market resolve?" market resolve? | NO |
Will Bill Gates make 1 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Oct 2024? | NO |
Will Joe Biden win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024? | NO |
Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025? | YES |
Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st? | NO |
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | YES |
Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data) | NO |
Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024? | NO |
What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back? | YES |
🗳️🔫🎣 Ballot Props: Will Florida guarantee the right to hunt and fish in the state constitution? | YES |
Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Prime Minister of Canada? | NO |
Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | NO |
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election? | NO |
Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025? | YES |
[Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | NO |
Will LAFC beat Sporting KC? ⚽ | 🏆 2024 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup | YES |
Will Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) close higher than $350, on 31st October 2024? | NO |
Nice market | NO |
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $900 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split) | YES |
Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024? | NO |
Will 'Fortnite' still be the most searched game term on Pornhub in 2024? | YES |
Will Manifold "hit 15k DAU (7-day average) by Sept 30th" 2024? (lol) | NO |
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote? | YES |
Will Vincent Keymer be ranked in the top 5 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024? | NO |
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2024? | YES |
Will the Feds lower rates a second time in 2024? | YES |
Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie? | YES |
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris have a higher probability on the Sweepcash market than the Mana market on 10/1/24? | NO |
[Polymarket-linked] Will Ukraine hit Moscow or the Crimean Bridge before October (2.0)? | NO |
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | NO |
Will the PA Secretary of State certify David McCormick as the winner of the 2024 senate election? | YES |
Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the US federal government charge McKinsey criminally for its role in promoting opioid use? | YES |
Will Michigan vote more Republican than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
NFL Week 15 (Dec 12 2024): Will the San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)? | NO |
[Metaculus] What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point bet...and next meeting (10/10)? | NO |
Will manifold introduce any incentives for betting on long term markets this year? | YES |
The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election. | YES |
Will Harris or Walz work at McDonald’s before the election? | NO |
Will Bitcoin reach $100000 | YES |
Will any of Biden, Trump, or @Mira be elected president in 2024? | YES |
Will AI-generated text suggestions be publicly available on Microsoft Outlook by end of 2024? | YES |
Will Demis Hassabis win a Nobel prize? | YES |
Will a Manifold celebrity appear on the Joe Rogan Experience by EOY 2024? | YES |
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height? | YES |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Hampshire? | NO |
Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons? | NO |
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