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One month from Today will there be an official release date for the next Game of Thrones book Winds of Winter?
NO
Will Scott claim the Cat's Cradle review in the 2024 ACX book review contest?
NO
Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election?
YES
Will US Supreme Court grant a stay, overrule have official hearing on election law challenges before November election?
YES
Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 10 on Halloween?
NO
Will all pixel watches get wearOS 5 on the pixel watch 3 release?
YES
Will Ding Liren play in the next World Chess Championship match?
YES
Manifold lottery 1 in 20 chance
NO
Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?
NO
[Short fuse] Will "Moana 2" gross >$200 million during its 5-day domestic opening weekend?
YES
Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description)
NO
One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive?
YES
Will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler win The Showdown on December 17?
YES
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $30 USD this year ?
NO
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?
YES
NFL Week 6 (Oct 13): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
NO
Did Deep Sea Vision really discover Amelia Earhart's plane?
NO
Will Tommy Devito start more games for the New York Giants than Daniel Jones, in the Calendar Year of 2024?
NO
Will both Demi Vollering and Lotte Kopecky ride for Team SD Worx ProTime in 2025?
NO
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Detroit Lions? 🏈|🦃 (12:30pm)
NO
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
YES
Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $50000?
YES
Will Carlos Sainz score more podium finishes in 2024 than George Russell?
YES
🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
YES
Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024
YES
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Nevada?
YES
Will Ukraine joins NATO before there is a new largest known Prime number?
NO
Will a team with less than 90 wins win the 2024 MLB NLCS? ⚾ National League Championship Series
NO
Will a third party candidate be blamed in the concession speech of the 2024 US presidential race?
NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
YES
Will Nikki Haley replace JD Vance on the Republican ticket?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Arizona?
YES
Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING?
NO
Will Sam altman sue openAI?
NO
In the 2024 United States presidential election, will the same party win all three of WI, MI, and PA?
YES
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?
YES
Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections?
YES
Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends)
YES
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them?
YES
Will at least six candidates win at least 1% of the national popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
NO
Will the 2024 DNC Protests be serious enough that a Wikipedia article is made about them?
NO
Will 2024 Brazilian municipal elections have more candidates with religious titles than 2020?
YES
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
NO
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election?
YES
Will I reach an unbroken 500 day prediction streak?
YES
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024?
NO
Will the federal reserve cut (reduce) interest rates before 2025?
YES
Will Lincoln appear in presidential epic rap battle of History 2024
NO
Will Maine's second congressional district (ME-02) flip blue in 2024?
NO
Will Belarus fire into Ukraine territory in 2024
NO
Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III?
YES
How will the "How will the "Will Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?" market resolve?" market resolve?
NO
Will Bill Gates make 1 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Oct 2024?
NO
Will Joe Biden win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024?
NO
Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025?
YES
Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st?
NO
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?
YES
Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data)
NO
Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024?
NO
What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back?
YES
🗳️🔫🎣 Ballot Props: Will Florida guarantee the right to hunt and fish in the state constitution?
YES
Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Prime Minister of Canada?
NO
Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
NO
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?
NO
Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025?
YES
[Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
NO
Will LAFC beat Sporting KC? ⚽ | 🏆 2024 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup
YES
Will Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) close higher than $350, on 31st October 2024?
NO
Nice market
NO
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $900 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
YES
Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024?
NO
Will 'Fortnite' still be the most searched game term on Pornhub in 2024?
YES
Will Manifold "hit 15k DAU (7-day average) by Sept 30th" 2024? (lol)
NO
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote?
YES
Will Vincent Keymer be ranked in the top 5 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024?
NO
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2024?
YES
Will the Feds lower rates a second time in 2024?
YES
Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie?
YES
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Kamala Harris have a higher probability on the Sweepcash market than the Mana market on 10/1/24?
NO
[Polymarket-linked] Will Ukraine hit Moscow or the Crimean Bridge before October (2.0)?
NO
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
NO
Will the PA Secretary of State certify David McCormick as the winner of the 2024 senate election?
YES
Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024?
YES
Will the US federal government charge McKinsey criminally for its role in promoting opioid use?
YES
Will Michigan vote more Republican than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election?
NO
NFL Week 15 (Dec 12 2024): Will the San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)?
NO
[Metaculus] What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point bet...and next meeting (10/10)?
NO
Will manifold introduce any incentives for betting on long term markets this year?
YES
The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.
YES
Will Harris or Walz work at McDonald’s before the election?
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100000
YES
Will any of Biden, Trump, or @Mira be elected president in 2024?
YES
Will AI-generated text suggestions be publicly available on Microsoft Outlook by end of 2024?
YES
Will Demis Hassabis win a Nobel prize?
YES
Will a Manifold celebrity appear on the Joe Rogan Experience by EOY 2024?
YES
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height?
YES
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Hampshire?
NO
Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?
NO