Datasets:
CK0607
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closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
1
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stringlengths
9
20
slug
stringlengths
4
54
question
stringlengths
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closeTime
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6.93M
O6zScChdQO
will-usaid-cease-to-exist-as-a-gove
Will USAID cease to exist as a government agency within 3 months of the Trump administration?
null
1,738,965,119,491
1,745,207,940,000
1,745,244,569,897
NO
0.023991
15,071.431194
OsLNNZ8ypQ
trump-will-sign-an-executive-order
Trump will sign an executive order that mentions "Bitcoin" in 2025
null
1,738,963,342,032
1,741,328,857,271
1,741,328,857,271
YES
0.975054
14,278.220335
yIhhZRq52d
will-amazoncom-inc-amzn-stock-price
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock price close at or above $240 on February 28th?
null
1,738,963,170,937
1,740,776,692,987
1,740,776,692,987
NO
0.013299
840.537446
C9cdgsSuE9
will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-februar--cash
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
null
1,738,959,376,174
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,860,548,932
NO
0.012766
2,138.890465
ntgCy2C2c2
will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-februar
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
null
1,738,959,338,594
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,845,045,920
NO
0.004201
545,512.050887
u6NuAOp82s
will-luka-make-the-lakers-better
Will Luka make the Lakers worse?
null
1,738,954,762,218
1,744,581,311,306
1,744,581,311,306
NO
0.01
1,816.856793
cZcIcSCELy
james-webb-or-hubble-telescope-obse
James Webb or Hubble telescope observes 2024 YR4 before May 1st 2025
null
1,738,950,045,689
1,746,057,600,000
1,746,184,570,611
YES
0.968825
5,756.634065
CORLLcgtEQ
will-dwarkesh-patel-interview-emman
Will Dwarkesh Patel interview Emmanuel Macron within a month?
null
1,738,943,813,731
1,741,561,140,000
1,741,622,730,644
NO
0.01
989.109295
QncIcO8sng
will-grok-3-top-the-chatbot-leaderb
Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
null
1,738,937,105,234
1,739,863,737,372
1,739,863,737,372
YES
0.99
100,815.874163
Qqsn52tZuN
will-a-216-qualify-for-usajmo
Will a 216 qualify for usajmo?
null
1,738,931,440,239
1,741,126,787,614
1,741,126,787,614
NO
0.01
1,207.793055
tO9u0ytpLu
will-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-CIREph2qpP
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates in February 2025?
null
1,738,927,906,728
1,739,849,525,181
1,739,849,525,181
YES
0.989948
9,855
2zchz0cZ0O
will-lex-fridman-host-another-inter
Will Lex Fridman host another interview with Zelensky in the next 6 month?
null
1,738,921,524,221
1,741,564,740,000
1,751,893,579,120
NO
0.031776
8,780.688232
UOOtzz8s6U
will-the-iphone-se-debut-next-week
Will the iPhone SE debut next week?
null
1,738,920,634,971
1,739,733,878,887
1,739,733,878,887
NO
0.010109
22,002.640822
AqUdA628SA
will-i-lift-weights-today-n6SE0nhS6c
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,917,638,282
1,738,990,740,000
1,738,993,882,720
YES
0.286028
163.205081
z0hUtuztEn
trump-tariffs-on-mexico-in-effect-b
Trump Tariffs on Mexico in Effect by May 1?
null
1,738,915,433,680
1,741,081,308,469
1,741,081,308,469
YES
0.976164
11,843.241624
yIzQqtnOzQ
daily-coinflip-NhcPt0Uqtl
Daily coinflip
null
1,738,908,852,634
1,739,077,140,000
1,739,079,590,869
YES
0.51
3,896.544474
dnIuLctul8
will-i-make-usajmo-150-on-10b-8-on
Will I make USAJMO 150 on 10B + 8 on AIME I?
null
1,738,902,112,624
1,741,129,874,134
1,741,129,876,385
NO
0.014927
1,099.5697
26EsAsy9LO
will-openais-one-more-thing-be-o3mi
Will OpenAI's "one more thing" be o3-mini tool use?
null
1,738,901,909,342
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,483,224,011
NO
0.079095
3,171.955115
5N9lSyLZ85
will-i-make-amo
Will I make AMO😭
null
1,738,901,664,090
1,741,130,453,494
1,741,130,453,494
YES
0.975501
7,348.458736
Ng8LPL5lN9
will-there-be-any-other-resignation
Will there be any other resignations from Elon Musk's DOGE staff during February to March 2025?
null
1,738,900,438,799
1,740,532,672,699
1,740,532,672,699
YES
0.67
42.488702
tnpp22lZc5
will-former-doge-staffer-marko-elez
Will former DOGE staffer Marko Elez be back in the US Govt by end of 2025?
null
1,738,896,202,714
1,740,701,760,000
1,741,607,765,962
YES
0.955411
10,326.350287
tgh9sCPzn5
will-this-stradivarius-violin-sell--cash
Will this Stradivarius violin sell for >$16 million at its upcoming Sotheby's auction?
null
1,738,893,600,290
1,738,945,200,000
1,738,960,580,993
NO
0.887675
23.594499
LA96N5n5dz
will-the-yudkowsky-tweet-market-res
Will the Yudkowsky Tweet market resolve by the end of February?
null
1,738,890,880,293
1,739,834,044,474
1,739,834,044,474
YES
0.934505
379.468517
Nn5QcNusnq
germany-announces-supply-of-taurus
Germany announces supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine before April 2025
null
1,738,884,834,197
1,743,465,600,000
1,743,498,624,050
NO
0.009597
5,832.535771
6hSlnszqOO
will-o3-pro-be-released-before-apri
Will o3 pro be released before April?
null
1,738,881,404,712
1,743,544,740,000
1,743,551,043,886
NO
0.01
2,217.932251
9nCqUsyLgU
will-germany-form-a-stable-governme
Will Germany form a stable government within a month and a half of elections?
null
1,738,881,329,544
1,744,343,940,000
1,744,490,839,088
NO
0.007264
2,764.281529
ulO56QNPCR
will-david-pakmans-new-book-the-ech
Will David Pakman's new book, The Echo Machine, be an NYT best seller?
null
1,738,881,264,713
1,745,537,477,013
1,745,537,477,013
YES
0.804858
15,264.954328
NZQ05LthSR
will-david-pakman-have-more-youtube--cash
Will David Pakman have more YouTube video views in February compared to January?
null
1,738,879,724,893
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,860,594,239
YES
0.99
671.493367
Z8R0SPSdIy
will-david-pakman-have-more-youtube
Will David Pakman have more YouTube video views in February compared to January?
null
1,738,879,702,850
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,860,600,241
YES
0.989825
111,614.614123
tR222lnz9c
will-josti-cry-during-the-berlin-su
Will Josti cry during the Berlin Surprise?
null
1,738,879,646,636
1,742,218,709,926
1,742,218,709,926
YES
0.654821
45.27639
P0hyguqzs2
will-at-least-one-of-my-girls-willi
Will at least one of my girls willingly serve as a flower girl in May?
null
1,738,877,388,977
1,746,934,087,463
1,746,934,113,188
YES
0.983675
839.794829
8ACyqhtRQP
will-robinhood-readd-sports-markets
Will Robinhood re-add sports markets from Kalshi in 2025?
null
1,738,877,154,926
1,742,239,367,548
1,742,239,367,548
YES
0.969354
818,184.380904
Au9gUCLcZZ
will-an-ai-like-operator-work-faste
Will an AI like Operator work faster than human comprehension by May?
null
1,738,867,815,378
1,746,136,653,852
1,746,136,653,852
NO
0.01
13,798.829777
50APZ95PCs
biased-coinflip
Biased Coin Flip
null
1,738,844,050,154
1,739,451,540,000
1,739,451,739,496
YES
0.73894
2,261.739457
tZhIyEC5I9
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Q5OC099QyC
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 6 than it closed on Feb 5?
null
1,738,839,530,733
1,738,941,534,151
1,738,941,534,151
YES
0.989615
11,299.783243
tZu505z2zh
will-i-lift-weights-today-NUC5Ap2SAC
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,829,531,855
1,738,904,340,000
1,738,917,626,899
NO
0.238461
177.621531
dsPA6hORIQ
will-i-reach-the-masters-league-fro
Will I reach the master's league from this month's season?
null
1,738,818,579,654
1,740,949,847,886
1,740,949,847,886
YES
0.99
1,084.449198
ztzSEtgcCu
will-i-find-myself-to-be-a-plural-s
Will I find myself to be a plural system by the end of 2026?
null
1,738,815,481,882
1,738,986,825,275
1,738,986,825,275
YES
0.9791
700.200699
sOP2Q2t9ON
will-openai-have-a-top-20-super-bow
Will OpenAI have a top 20 Super Bowl commercial this year?
null
1,738,800,775,037
1,739,147,400,000
1,739,204,936,135
NO
0.538997
1,144.678082
CpChpcZUh9
will-i-be-able-to-run-deepseekr1-wi
Will I be able to run DeepSeek-R1 with ktransformers without segfaults on my local GPU rig by Feb 9th 2025 livestreaming
null
1,738,791,695,516
1,738,878,606,106
1,738,878,606,106
YES
0.289002
3,309.499685
tO5sL8yNn6
will-elon-musk-take-doge-as-a-perso
Will Elon Musk take "Doge" as a personal title or nickname within the first 100 days of the 2nd Trump administration?
null
1,738,790,171,656
1,746,881,425,220
1,746,881,425,220
NO
0.051845
527.156093
qZszQSIL99
internet-historian-releases-a-new-v
Internet Historian releases a new video before February 13, 2025
null
1,738,779,981,309
1,739,404,800,000
1,739,419,341,714
NO
0.02215
913.661232
cQu0pN5RZ2
will-this-stradivarius-violin-sell
Will this Stradivarius violin sell for >$16 million at its upcoming Sotheby's auction?
null
1,738,774,743,909
1,738,945,200,000
1,738,957,167,121
NO
0.847886
4,906.804616
2hpPI8nsIg
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Cyq2yh6U2n
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 5 than it closed on Feb 4?
null
1,738,767,057,010
1,738,789,293,600
1,738,789,293,600
YES
0.936628
4,908.333572
nd2Sp9sL0E
will-microstrategy-purchase-more-bi-QQh598UERs
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin today? [February 5]
null
1,738,764,495,209
1,738,967,843,799
1,738,967,843,799
NO
0.01
952.604467
O9g899ht9c
did-trump-issue-an-executive-order
Did Trump issue an executive order on February 4? [Polymarket]
null
1,738,764,336,784
1,739,088,937,620
1,739,088,937,620
YES
0.99
945.863075
NlghhpPh0t
will-openais-deep-research-be-avail
Will OpenAI’s Deep Research be available to Plus and Team users in the United States before March 31st, 2025?
null
1,738,761,122,497
1,740,520,447,485
1,740,520,447,485
YES
0.534291
90.334342
h9Ztp6Z58L
will-trump-publicly-announce-a-desi
Will Trump publicly announce a desire for the US to take over another territory before the end of February?
null
1,738,751,281,373
1,740,876,970,228
1,740,876,979,929
NO
0.017016
1,847.72186
zggEc6Pgu9
daily-coinflip-qgOucpcdSs
Daily coinflip
null
1,738,739,938,268
1,738,904,340,000
1,738,908,838,967
YES
0.5
15,566.428234
yOSEzglcn5
will-fetterman-vote-to-confirm-rfk
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm RFK Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services?
null
1,738,737,712,847
1,739,465,646,874
1,739,465,646,874
NO
0.010414
952.201403
NlNLc5qnAR
will-fetterman-vote-to-confirm-tuls
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence?
null
1,738,737,710,769
1,739,379,975,133
1,739,379,975,133
NO
0.01
1,551.104713
Pu5clQP9Nd
will-i-lift-weights-today-UPpq8QOPPL
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,733,004,820
1,738,817,940,000
1,738,829,519,395
NO
0.277838
179.631128
IqPsS055N6
will-i-be-able-to-order-chinese-tea
Will I be able to order Chinese tea to my US based address and receive it before May 1st?
null
1,738,730,754,673
1,740,431,746,532
1,740,431,746,532
YES
0.958833
10,307.629792
t6llA6tRtc
will-bitcoin-surpass-105000-by-the-2IRCRsyQ0q
Will bitcoin surpass $105,000 by the end of February 2025?
null
1,738,716,315,240
1,740,880,728,028
1,740,880,728,028
NO
0.00981
1,591.732116
L6y52Zn2s6
will-my-friend-be-able-to-stay-sobe
Will my friend be able to stay sober from 2/2/25 to 3/8/25 for a total of 34 consecutive days?
null
1,738,714,260,680
1,740,198,343,232
1,740,198,343,232
NO
0.01
1,888.824269
L8862pUqsp
jefferson-griffin-appointed-to-the
Jefferson Griffin appointed to the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2025
null
1,738,713,763,030
1,747,175,134,751
1,747,175,134,751
NO
0.015826
126,228.882032
zs6nzZ6z9l
kevin-durant-plays-for-the-warriors
Kevin Durant plays for the Warriors in the 2024-2025 NBA season
null
1,738,712,263,017
1,744,666,439,276
1,744,666,439,276
NO
0.010019
9,167.771793
C6E0ztOsdn
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-qcpPROAShz
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 193 and 194?
null
1,738,705,928,579
1,739,303,999,396
1,739,304,003,727
NO
0.28228
761.913688
Lz5qsg09h5
kai-and-speed-win-fortnite-today-fe
Kai and Speed win Fortnite today? (Febuary 4th Eastern Time)
null
1,738,693,449,988
1,738,763,749,216
1,738,763,749,216
NO
0.01
1,438.898676
qt6dndUSQR
will-trump-impose-additional-tariff
Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China before April 10?
null
1,738,692,010,681
1,741,105,625,372
1,741,105,625,372
YES
0.980984
8,510.898722
hI8Iq2SSC9
will-the-house-bot-acceleration-acc
Will the house bot Acceleration (@acc) post positive monthly profits on Feb 28?
null
1,738,687,937,021
1,740,779,940,000
1,740,783,656,417
NO
0.01
1,488.812125
2tndLSdZE2
will-a-regulator-take-action-agains
Will a regulator take action against a Kalshi sports market in 2025?
null
1,738,686,456,495
1,741,205,747,024
1,741,205,747,024
YES
0.898593
2,133
LIEA2ICtPP
will-the-afge-lawsuit-to-stop-doge
Will the AFGE lawsuit to stop DOGE access to treasury data succeed?
null
1,738,686,453,950
1,748,713,405,274
1,748,713,405,274
YES
0.672695
93.214345
ZLdQLcypUh
will-i-go-running-two-times-again-n
Will I go running two times again this week?
null
1,738,682,152,664
1,739,136,110,798
1,739,136,110,798
NO
0.480379
181.165603
zuRUAcLusZ
will-the-deferred-resignation-aka-f
Will the deferred resignation (aka “Fork in the Road”) offer to federal employees be extended past the Feb 6 deadline?
null
1,738,681,170,016
1,738,869,863,449
1,738,869,873,850
YES
0.927615
5,414.480228
EROAqUUpUy
will-xai-ship-an-ai-model-similar-t
Will xAI ship an AI model similar to Deep Research before February 4, 2026?
null
1,738,681,088,547
1,747,675,405,813
1,747,675,405,813
YES
0.99
12,586.243735
0EcRZgAtuy
is-doge-implementing-land-value-tax
Is DOGE implementing Land Value Tax (LVT) before July 2025?
null
1,738,680,456,807
1,751,342,340,000
1,751,439,411,252
NO
0.01
26,474.800749
CEn9n9ZyO0
will-either-of-the-words-fucks-or-c
Will either of the words “FUCKS” or “CUCKS” be the solution to Wordle in the next month?
null
1,738,675,559,111
1,741,305,540,000
1,741,321,964,034
NO
0.01
914.604998
nZc8A5zn9t
the-us-sends-a-nonsalvadorean-crimi
The US sends a non-Salvadorean criminal to a Salvadorean prison in 2025?
null
1,738,658,573,901
1,742,149,577,582
1,742,149,577,582
YES
0.311972
2,607.520128
yyQyUlu9Sn
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-N2L5sE0RAL
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 4 than it closed on Feb 3?
null
1,738,657,129,563
1,738,705,514,756
1,738,705,514,756
YES
0.977887
7,701.162093
2CyznO2cRQ
-will-usaid-be-dismantled-by-fy-202
USAID dismantled by FY 2026?
null
1,738,648,426,415
1,751,592,668,167
1,751,592,668,167
YES
0.964897
14,825.037157
qUAUQyCsqP
will-i-lift-weights-today-6qc9z6qRd5
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,646,451,624
1,738,731,540,000
1,738,732,992,525
NO
0.587207
78.687073
yS9n6dOS0U
islam-or-christianity-which-is-wors
Islam or Christianity, Which Is Worse for Society? - Will Apostate Prophet Defeat Gnostic Informant?
null
1,738,641,683,719
1,739,689,140,000
1,739,729,851,479
YES
0.961213
29,656.000834
ZQdNlAzl8N
will-the-eo-barring-transgender-us
Will the EO barring transgender US citizens from renewing passports be even partially overturned by end of 2025?
null
1,738,632,501,583
1,751,463,993,693
1,751,463,993,693
YES
0.766159
4,507.975365
UNdchpddC5
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-dPycOAQglZ
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
null
1,738,630,545,480
1,739,260,740,000
1,739,311,371,761
YES
0.490739
50
qqlPQO5NZQ
will-humanitys-last-exam-fall-this
will Humanity's Last Exam fall this month? (score >80%)
null
1,738,629,087,283
1,740,815,940,000
1,741,250,273,289
NO
0.01
44,671.502582
PPyAONuIQl
if-i-get-the-200-openai-subscriptio
If I get the $200 OpenAI subscription, will it help me make $200? Will it pay for itself?
null
1,738,624,354,750
1,742,436,295,520
1,742,436,295,520
NO
0.044508
24,198.016967
gpU5UZgP2Z
will-trump-withdraw-from-the-un-hum
Will Trump withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council by the end of this month?
null
1,738,622,019,723
1,738,721,463,617
1,738,721,463,617
YES
0.897089
4,922.73918
uLnu006AlU
tariff-on-chinese-goods-is-100-or-h
Tariff on Chinese goods is 100% or higher?
null
1,738,620,757,043
1,744,168,160,554
1,744,168,160,554
YES
0.974415
13,905.617398
ZdCIhOZAPA
will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-I9uZnOdOz0
Will Trump issue an executive order to shut down the Department of Education or move functions to other departments?
null
1,738,618,426,626
1,742,518,279,572
1,742,518,279,572
YES
0.660996
20,138.902311
AsOchl6hL8
number-of-applicants-for-the-300-fe
Number of applicants for the $300 Fermi Model Competition exceeds 10 by February 16th, 2025
null
1,738,617,297,038
1,739,824,045,167
1,739,824,045,167
NO
0.562933
437.605673
ZZ529O9L26
will-the-current-25-us-tariff-on-ca
Will the current 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian goods remain in place for the next six months?
null
1,738,611,933,503
1,738,636,270,813
1,738,636,270,813
NO
0.106634
226.132046
hlLZEPn2qS
will-trump-sign-tariffs-on-the-eu-b
Will Trump sign tariffs on the EU by March?
null
1,738,611,807,364
1,740,805,140,000
1,740,810,165,902
NO
0.010279
18,663.844944
SONlgNldln
will-there-be-a-score-of-80-or-high
Will there be a score of 80% or higher on Humanity's Last Exam before April 1, 2025?
null
1,738,611,733,182
1,743,566,340,000
1,743,628,188,697
NO
0.01
10,616.913546
6ECCNpyt8U
y-O0N68puPIy
y
null
1,738,611,181,780
1,738,611,273,494
1,738,611,273,494
YES
0.982487
649
06dEOAdtgU
will-any-ai-get-a-score-of-at-least
Will any AI get a score of at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark before March 11, 2025?
null
1,738,605,663,614
1,741,640,340,000
1,741,706,025,253
NO
0.01
1,293.521979
6shEzCtcCn
usaid-website-restored-and-fully-op
USAID website restored and fully operational before March 3, 2025
null
1,738,603,302,187
1,740,960,000,000
1,740,983,507,823
NO
0.01
1,491.060686
R2pCECLsAZ
will-the-eu-impose-tariffs-on-the-u
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. in 2025
null
1,738,581,238,810
1,745,259,166,757
1,745,259,166,757
YES
0.988206
23,759.80766
t2LqAlU9dz
will-any-player-score-a-hattrick-in-APgh2ltEyQ
Will any player score a hat-trick in a fixture of Premier League Matchday 25 (Feb 14-16, 2025)?
null
1,738,571,211,416
1,739,698,076,867
1,739,698,076,867
YES
0.99
1,122.406021
5SICUtuIgU
will-openais-deep-research-be-relea
Will OpenAI's deep research be released to all EEA-countries in February 2025
null
1,738,571,103,588
1,738,766,360,289
1,738,766,360,289
YES
0.809547
2,764.775628
5hdq986RcP
will-i-study-at-least-40-minutes-pe
Will I study at least 40 minutes per day until the end of March?
null
1,738,567,888,269
1,738,916,814,442
1,738,916,814,442
NO
0.66854
160.249754
Zdc6OhcsIQ
will-i-drink-three-litres-of-water-y2ECgRE8A9
Will I drink three litres of water a day for 90 days?
null
1,738,566,658,037
1,744,104,604,989
1,744,104,604,989
NO
0.852676
341.990682
u2N5NdSUNE
will-i-lift-weights-today-LlltNts8qz
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,562,724,701
1,738,645,140,000
1,738,646,441,309
NO
0.54
104.397107
IQ0st986zy
daily-coinflip-6hptyUAtII
Daily coinflip
null
1,738,562,341,271
1,738,731,540,000
1,738,739,912,370
NO
0.500812
8,192.87351
ApUq6lL8Ug
will-they-get-rid-of-de-minimus-for
Will they get rid of de minimis for tariffs on China?
null
1,738,558,756,815
1,738,879,163,258
1,738,879,163,258
YES
0.637919
5,180.330683
EPslQPg8Ps
will-o3-be-released-on-march-13-202
Will o3 be released on March 13, 2025?
null
1,738,555,657,981
1,741,987,358,309
1,741,987,358,309
NO
0.01
1,643.461547
Icc56568zl
will-the-sp-500-drop-10-or-more-on
Will the S&P 500 drop 10 or more % on Monday after Trump's tariff announcements?
null
1,738,550,631,290
1,738,634,653,647
1,738,634,653,647
NO
0.000323
12,131.368077
9AdNhIZ5l8
will-the-2025-giro-ditalia-mens-be
Will the 2025 Giro d'Italia (men's) be won by a first time Grand Tour winner?
null
1,738,538,421,448
1,748,801,978,913
1,748,801,978,913
NO
0.012203
21,716.619016
Cy0Zdcsg8d
will-the-sp-500-drop-7-or-more-poin
Will the S&P 500 drop 7 or more % on Monday after Trump's tariff announcements?
null
1,738,535,316,421
1,738,645,140,000
1,738,645,401,620
NO
0.009498
2,896.566151
0quOPhNS8d
will-the-sp-500-drop-5-or-more-poin
Will the S&P 500 drop 5 or more % on Monday after Trump's tariff announcements?
null
1,738,535,303,311
1,738,645,140,000
1,738,645,404,437
NO
0.01
1,207.053489