id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
zdirm4648 | will-an-unmitigated-vulnerability-b | Will an un-mitigated vulnerability be found in Intel's Raptor Lake CPUs before the end of 2025? | null | 1,723,587,112,938 | 1,747,214,652,114 | 1,747,214,652,114 | YES | 0.85 | 386.181216 |
w13omaj723 | will-trump-post-a-tweet-on-january | Will Trump post a tweet on January 6th 2025? | null | 1,723,581,271,197 | 1,736,225,940,000 | 1,736,262,146,745 | NO | 0.106815 | 587 |
cqe9p2x1yx | will-i-get-banned-on-manifold-befor | Will i get banned on Manifold before 2025? | null | 1,723,580,850,538 | 1,735,705,704,641 | 1,735,705,704,641 | NO | 0.01 | 9,585.415669 |
zw83x4g7xw | will-trump-sell-25-or-more-of-his-t | Will Trump sell 25% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,579,834,362 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,832,311,455 | NO | 0.060837 | 3,904.910634 |
qjtbjiu91k | is-ukraines-offensive-in-the-kursk | Is Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region a diversion? | null | 1,723,576,390,831 | 1,735,738,944,441 | 1,735,738,944,441 | NO | 0.09674 | 4,159.737289 |
dcoahytmlb | will-tomorrow-the-largest-ai-safety | Will "TOMORROW: the largest AI Safety protest ever!" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,564,077,936 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,477,761 | NO | 0.0891 | 554 |
cgixjn3bs4 | will-vinicius-jr-vini-play-a-match | Will Vinícius Jr. (Vini) play a match in Saudi Arabia by end of 2025? | null | 1,723,554,244,493 | 1,737,401,828,191 | 1,737,401,828,191 | YES | 0.99 | 1,514.588875 |
t3prtrmosh | will-tyreek-hill-race-against-noah | Will Tyreek Hill race against Noah Lyles by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,528,291,559 | 1,735,717,729,352 | 1,735,717,740,847 | NO | 0.012064 | 2,207.658052 |
b7lge1xh3q | will-waymo-operate-in-berkeley-by-t | Will waymo operate in berkeley by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,526,688,167 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,737,567,723,431 | NO | 0.057114 | 5,391.194384 |
eo8z6inhsv | will-kamala-harris-join-a-twitter-x | Will Kamala Harris join a twitter (X) space with Elon Musk before the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,524,437,786 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,741,552,888,974 | NO | 0.01 | 28,852.16202 |
eliwfie01s | will-truth-social-be-acquired-by-th | Will Truth Social be acquired by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,503,143,960 | 1,737,242,441,724 | 1,737,242,441,724 | NO | 0.120912 | 172 |
rwchflzm5x | will-captain-america-brave-new-worl-ozp28rx1oc | Will Captain America: Brave New World show a team of Avengers? | null | 1,723,486,875,842 | 1,739,512,800,000 | 1,739,540,785,266 | NO | 0.570058 | 1,017.21657 |
niqcor7rft | feature-where-manifold-market-creat | Feature where manifold market creators can view their own markets along with mana amount earned from volume, by eoy 2024 | null | 1,723,485,537,579 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,719,935,237 | NO | 0.0216 | 77,645.967184 |
yt1a8o0smj | will-prongstudio-release-our-next-p | Will prong.studio release our next product by the end of the year? | null | 1,723,484,743,154 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,832,363,070 | NO | 0.285364 | 71 |
vhujr34yfa | cs2-will-nikola-niko-kovac-leave-g2 | CS2: Will Nikola "NiKo" Kovac leave G2 Esports before August 2025? | null | 1,723,474,767,916 | 1,736,328,939,714 | 1,736,328,939,714 | YES | 0.99 | 921.386247 |
3fxx2v9f8l | will-the-save-saving-on-a-valuable | Will the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) student loan repayment plan be cancelled by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,451,094,286 | 1,735,768,740,000 | 1,748,247,564,925 | NO | 0.02232 | 562 |
wcz0gdng3y | will-there-be-a-secretary-of-educat | Will there be a Secretary of Education in the next administration? | null | 1,723,431,031,757 | 1,741,298,409,772 | 1,741,298,409,772 | YES | 0.981032 | 6,827.083912 |
by8tt2dz89 | by-the-end-of-2024-will-ukraine-sti | By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds? | null | 1,723,428,913,339 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,716,944,278 | YES | 0.989963 | 36,408.458118 |
yt2bmirad7 | will-trump-sell-50-or-more-of-his-t | Will Trump sell 50% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,418,577,440 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,841,401 | NO | 0.037191 | 5,740.764428 |
sl2gjqb5lr | will-induction-heads-illustrated-ma | Will "Induction heads - illustrated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,412,710,950 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,947,389 | NO | 0.1288 | 87.179039 |
rnqiowrd5q | will-destinys-trump-insurrection-ma | Will Destiny’s Trump Insurrection Manifesto gain One Million views in 45 days? | null | 1,723,411,013,877 | 1,736,225,940,000 | 1,748,181,145,392 | NO | 0.047342 | 14,739.293433 |
szr361vzdf | will-rfk-jr-get-any-electoral-colle | Will RFK Jr. get any electoral college votes? | null | 1,723,406,689,999 | 1,735,882,805,036 | 1,735,882,805,036 | NO | 0.008422 | 17,582.109019 |
nc7i19el7y | will-nicolas-maduro-accept-asylum-i | Will Nicolas Maduro accept asylum in the US by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,403,425,319 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,778,377,272 | NO | 0.018773 | 18,669.210967 |
q7gx4s2vuu | will-grok-3-release-before-the-next | Will Grok 3 release before the next US president? | null | 1,723,376,767,710 | 1,737,657,323,702 | 1,737,657,323,702 | NO | 0.014284 | 1,372.268105 |
tnepe7lp4m | will-mr-beast-see-any-drop-in-subsc | Will Mr Beast see any drop in subscribers on Socialblade by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,376,047,182 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,303,347 | NO | 0.028427 | 929.190542 |
izhq9jq94f | will-bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggress-5sfazvokkt | Will "Bing Chat is blatantly, aggressively misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,346,832,744 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,373,260 | YES | 0.140683 | 525.442131 |
ttuw1hfavu | will-bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggress | Will "Bing Chat is blatantly, aggressively misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,346,830,326 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,997,725 | NO | 0.140683 | 143.721884 |
7wry6bcg4k | will-the-next-long-march-6a-launch | Will the next Long March 6A launch create space debris? | null | 1,723,331,440,926 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,735,916,588,540 | NO | 0.106929 | 1,905 |
c3rkugyd7y | will-the-new-glenn-rocket-reach-orb | Will the New Glenn rocket reach orbit before 2035? | null | 1,723,317,461,142 | 1,737,071,653,746 | 1,737,071,653,746 | YES | 0.99 | 1,076.069795 |
8pj7g3kobi | will-bing-chat-is-the-ai-fire-alarm | Will "Bing chat is the AI fire alarm" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,279,294,842 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,303,727,289 | NO | 0.111775 | 250 |
5v1sik39l5 | will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-8y7p8a3krk | Will the Supreme Court strike down the Texas age verification law for online content? | null | 1,723,261,490,395 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,815,406,066 | NO | 0.01 | 10,817.87836 |
22kqws6gxl | will-the-seekers-game-vignettes-fro | Will "The Seeker’s Game – Vignettes from the Bay" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,251,486,653 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,448,237 | NO | 0.130264 | 75 |
j5np0vrn6q | will-basic-facts-about-language-mod | Will "Basic Facts about Language Model Internals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,233,467,843 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,411,854 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
hsozwdh6f5 | will-manifold-ban-usercreated-whale | Will Manifold ban user-created whalebait markets by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,230,306,481 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,800,507 | NO | 0.03122 | 586 |
fdtuz6szs6 | will-calibration-come-back-to-manif | Will calibration come back to manifold in some form by EOY 2024? | null | 1,723,223,390,044 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,804,508 | NO | 0.009808 | 22,568.391037 |
vwcgxj4s5t | will-anyone-find-a-universal-jailbr | Will anyone find a universal jailbreak in the system Anthropic was testing on (8/9/24) within 3 months? | null | 1,723,223,268,395 | 1,739,163,540,000 | 1,739,191,864,384 | NO | 0.023121 | 16,781.354025 |
9vifgiyzys | will-nvidia-b200-be-easily-availabl | Will Nvidia B200s be easily available on the cloud in 2024? | null | 1,723,214,934,630 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,763,926,872 | NO | 0.047258 | 410 |
vcb06rgepv | will-japan-experience-an-earthquake | Will Japan experience an earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher during 2024? | null | 1,723,214,114,967 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,719,289,575 | NO | 0.01 | 970.372362 |
zlg843p3gn | will-the-world-cubing-association-w | Will the World Cubing Association (WCA) add Face Turning Octahedron (FTO) as an official event before 2025? | null | 1,723,199,584,171 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,735,716,858,600 | NO | 0.266215 | 140 |
556wk28ozp | will-ajani-nacatl-pariah-be-banned | Will Ajani, Nacatl Pariah be banned, digitally altered, or restricted in Historic before March 1, 2025? | null | 1,723,190,425,557 | 1,740,862,686,659 | 1,740,862,686,659 | NO | 0.01 | 896.964747 |
1u2o9wqoiu | will-the-dial-of-progress-make-the | Will "The Dial of Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,188,444,255 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,507,676 | NO | 0.194439 | 60 |
tvmqkwetff | ill-have-a-driving-license-at-any-t | I'll have a driving license at any time by the end of 2024 | null | 1,723,147,611,808 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,780,750,059 | NO | 0.52359 | 5 |
p9v053n259 | will-mrbeast-be-known-to-have-lost | Will MrBeast be known to have lost subscribers before 2025? | null | 1,723,144,268,923 | 1,735,880,399,999 | 1,735,915,693,384 | NO | 0.026031 | 6,927.994535 |
940lczlp0x | will-destiny-talk-to-shane-gillis-p | Will Destiny talk to Shane Gillis publicly by the end of 2024 | null | 1,723,143,964,652 | 1,736,657,940,000 | 1,749,587,494,022 | NO | 0.04497 | 361 |
e83qy8pocw | will-you-be-able-to-book-a-waymo-to | Will you be able to book a Waymo to an SF/LA airport by the end of the year? | null | 1,723,136,592,258 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,777,101,951 | NO | 0.07497 | 280 |
ovilyci3c4 | will-keir-starmer-call-any-view-of | Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,136,311,483 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,794,107,520 | NO | 0.054507 | 33,530.033035 |
kuqzmhm88u | if-trump-wins-will-harris-publicly | If Trump wins, will Harris publicly deny the official 2024 election results? | null | 1,723,134,410,625 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,480,628,990 | NO | 0.011411 | 1,276 |
mccc67gk7q | will-the-boxer-imane-khelif-release | Will the boxer Imane Khelif release medical records related to her gender eligibility ? (until end-of-year) | null | 1,723,124,705,344 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,003,237,252 | NO | 0.042726 | 424.155071 |
ortpscueok | will-home-depot-have-at-least-doubl | Will Home Depot have at least triple the market capitalization of Lowe’s by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,123,355,155 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,748,407,029 | NO | 0.014313 | 9,249.838495 |
mxrnknekvj | will-mrbeast-go-to-jail-before-the | Will MrBeast go to jail before the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,122,085,442 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,738,879,539,186 | NO | 0.018516 | 632 |
s41q324xfa | will-actblue-see-more-than-60251396 | Will ActBlue receive more than $60,251,396 in contributions in a single day in 2024? | null | 1,723,116,194,875 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,739,371,383 | NO | 0.042466 | 483.944452 |
mjhkp3805j | will-manchester-united-finish-withi | Will Manchester United Finish within 10 points of the Premier League Champions in 2024/25 season? | null | 1,723,108,068,445 | 1,747,695,540,000 | 1,748,212,954,983 | NO | 0.01 | 1,721.595552 |
4ldgsgtt47 | will-my-iphone-15-pro-max-have-a-sc | Will my iPhone 15 pro max have a screen crack by the end of year? | null | 1,723,104,760,627 | 1,735,669,740,000 | 1,735,745,787,318 | NO | 0.366852 | 330 |
eg6pdxigjh | will-david-zaslav-resign-or-be-fire | Will David Zaslav remain CEO and president of Warner Bros. Discovery for all of 2024? | null | 1,723,100,226,285 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,714,014,113 | YES | 0.99 | 10,494.379328 |
42czmyezdg | will-a-large-language-model-beat-me | Will a Large Language Model beat me at chess this year? | null | 1,723,094,894,730 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,775,496,004 | NO | 0.025653 | 873.997006 |
h4pk4y28xe | will-bryan-johnson-identify-as-some | Will Bryan Johnson identify as something other than a human male on December 31 2024? | null | 1,723,073,232,988 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,742,400,712,447 | NO | 0.113663 | 2,020.629908 |
yexlbabgct | will-any-candidate-receive-a-record | Will any candidate receive a record number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | 1,723,061,691,777 | 1,730,764,740,000 | 1,736,600,150,764 | NO | 0.52024 | 156.178933 |
oaiz5l6s9t | will-reddit-put-a-subreddit-behind | Will Reddit put any subreddit behind a paywall in 2024? | null | 1,723,055,755,741 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,739,214,757,884 | NO | 0.061142 | 5,487.782178 |
w4mqrd79e8 | will-rasmus-hjlund-score-over-15-pr | Will Rasmus Højlund score over 15 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season? | null | 1,723,016,689,517 | 1,748,214,033,003 | 1,748,214,033,003 | NO | 0.01 | 1,870.511568 |
faoijknmcw | will-how-bad-a-future-do-ml-researc | Will "How bad a future do ML researchers expect?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,991,808,200 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,979,509 | NO | 0.104296 | 525 |
l31d9e9e4k | will-google-be-broken-up-as-a-compa | Will Google be broken up as a company due to the antitrust lawsuit? | null | 1,722,987,817,017 | 1,743,458,340,000 | 1,744,278,706,613 | NO | 0.137564 | 672.999997 |
4e6piluj6u | will-replies-on-x-have-a-like-count | Will replies on X have a like count at the end of the year? | null | 1,722,979,234,481 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,771,571,779 | YES | 0.960346 | 4,594.811635 |
dbs3xh8yav | is-twitter-goi-my-to-sue-anyone-for | Is Twitter going to sue anyone for posting on Threads instead of Twitter? | null | 1,722,976,444,270 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,724,138,271 | NO | 0.059951 | 300 |
ei9fbd6lmv | would-i-get-into-the-master-leaderb | Would I get into the Master Leaderboard ranking before the end of year? | null | 1,722,959,155,745 | 1,735,862,781,628 | 1,735,862,781,628 | NO | 0.104864 | 3,060.906891 |
dj01wpyf2t | will-the-trapped-nasa-iss-barry-wil | Will the trapped NASA ISS (Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams) astronauts be brought back in a SpaceX shuttle? | null | 1,722,943,609,575 | 1,742,877,888,138 | 1,742,877,888,138 | YES | 0.99 | 11,038.146469 |
57rhtwe4oy | will-divine-hammer-release-before-t | Will Divine Hammer release before the end of the year? | null | 1,722,926,328,818 | 1,735,721,940,000 | 1,735,774,377,424 | NO | 0.0662 | 2,950.478034 |
kiunt04jes | 80-on-swebench-by-jan-1-2025 | 80% on SWE-Bench Verified by Jan 1 2025 | null | 1,722,919,637,881 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,735,844,156,122 | NO | 0.046428 | 13,505.209272 |
btgxb04cnp | will-a-way-to-be-okay-make-the-top | Will "A Way To Be Okay" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,906,290,189 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,082,348 | NO | 0.164877 | 29 |
zdrd4tomta | will-bmk-leo-gao-join-anthropic | Will bmk (Leo Gao) join Anthropic? | null | 1,722,904,489,675 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,757,916,512 | NO | 0.284968 | 335.247658 |
kuxurn6ong | will-a-politician-be-assassinated-b | Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025? | null | 1,722,882,299,377 | 1,743,461,940,000 | 1,744,693,796,962 | NO | 0.012651 | 153,386.252242 |
5xu604kutx | will-bangladesh-hold-new-general-el | Will Bangladesh hold new general elections in the next 6 months? | null | 1,722,881,924,303 | 1,738,780,140,000 | 1,738,787,006,591 | NO | 0.01 | 60,739.360925 |
ve0qnedsfy | will-openai-release-a-watermarkbase | Will OpenAI release a watermark-based text detection (anti-cheating) tool for ChatGPT before 2025? | null | 1,722,878,141,358 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,847,169,276 | NO | 0.070503 | 2,724.672599 |
t5br1iu7f6 | will-agentized-llms-will-change-the | Will "Agentized LLMs will change the alignment land..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,870,961,117 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,385,488 | NO | 0.1 | 398.878891 |
safyym3xld | will-llama-4-use-mixture-of-experts | Will Llama 4 use mixture of experts? | null | 1,722,866,109,947 | 1,743,969,660,864 | 1,743,969,660,864 | YES | 0.99 | 9,474.118156 |
f92i9rjbm6 | in-2024-will-there-be-rfk-jr-copyca | In 2024 will there be RFK Jr. copycats who deliberately put large animal carcasses in urban parks to amuse themselves? | null | 1,722,849,388,697 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,735,717,807,131 | NO | 0.022171 | 6,217.080597 |
o5xfil4vwv | what-will-this-needlessly-complicat | What will this needlessly complicated Boolean circuit output once all input markets resolve? | null | 1,722,842,634,151 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,746,141,759,404 | NO | 0.5 | 0 |
dw68dxrpei | will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-uk | WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025? | null | 1,722,828,685,100 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,735,988,523,285 | NO | 0.007891 | 45,904.206775 |
ajxbi6yfba | will-another-way-to-be-okay-make-th | Will "Another Way to Be Okay" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,819,708,142 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,511,565 | NO | 0.135736 | 53 |
jh0a3p9c93 | will-manifold-price-a-2024-us-reces | Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,814,698,221 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,762,147,713 | NO | 0.003238 | 52,918.511671 |
c8m0wvjz2b | will-fromsoftware-inc-release-a-new | Will FromSoftware Inc release a new game before the end of 2025? | null | 1,722,808,721,249 | 1,751,291,731,540 | 1,751,291,731,540 | YES | 0.984993 | 10,385.713514 |
p23ohfsds2 | will-evidence-come-out-showing-that | Will evidence come out that iShowSpeed faked any of his jumps over sports cars by the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,803,862,921 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,208,235 | NO | 0.129574 | 201.381341 |
bb0zljcya7 | will-grok-2-be-opensourced-by-2025-yvdkpxkp2j | Will Grok 2 be open-sourced by 2025? | null | 1,722,803,315,988 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,757,874,233 | NO | 0.040921 | 1,017.631307 |
xapzvk9uwa | will-the-total-market-cap-of-crypto-oqhsbodac | Will the total market cap of crypto reach an all-time high in 2025? | null | 1,722,803,111,329 | 1,737,056,918,659 | 1,737,056,918,659 | YES | 0.486402 | 250 |
ilakkqoxmw | will-a-major-ai-lab-release-a-model | Will a major AI lab release a model that does search (e.g monte carlo tree search) at inference-time by 2025? | null | 1,722,802,141,060 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,757,884,880 | YES | 0.92738 | 315 |
enqtm885gf | will-yev-barkalov-have-girlfriend-b | Will Yev Barkalov have girlfriend by 2028? | null | 1,722,800,243,631 | 1,747,535,325,462 | 1,747,535,325,462 | YES | 0.802155 | 483.090122 |
lscys50441 | will-the-price-of-one-bitcoin-reach | Will the price of one Bitcoin reach $100K in 2025? | null | 1,722,790,018,140 | 1,736,200,130,050 | 1,736,200,130,050 | YES | 0.99186 | 2,613.999714 |
y6047pzagn | anthropic-4b-annualized-revenue-by | Will Anthropic reach $4B annualized revenue by end of 2025? | null | 1,722,784,265,662 | 1,751,394,554,921 | 1,751,394,554,921 | YES | 0.878973 | 4,666.622252 |
bo5vs6oi63 | will-i-bench-press-120kg-before-202 | Will I bench press 120kg before 2025? | null | 1,722,769,540,296 | 1,735,775,940,000 | 1,735,938,574,115 | NO | 0.928735 | 339.531565 |
hl4y35p40m | israel-parliament-dissolves-in-2024 | Israel parliament dissolves in 2024? | null | 1,722,760,549,048 | 1,735,763,187,277 | 1,735,763,187,277 | NO | 0.010036 | 895 |
ig4nmo0h1b | will-the-eu-institute-border-contro | Will the EU institute border controls at the border to Hungary before 2025? | null | 1,722,718,808,865 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,676,966,423 | NO | 0.012655 | 940 |
wsuusyordl | magic-is-programming-will-carlos-an | [Magic Is Programming] Will Carlos and Amber accept Kindar's request? | null | 1,722,716,906,945 | 1,735,981,807,895 | 1,735,981,807,895 | YES | 0.5 | 0 |
u9pkugba9z | will-xai-release-grok-3-by-the-end | Will xAI release Grok 3 by the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,714,053,987 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,757,891,882 | NO | 0.095189 | 1,597.06142 |
hw5sihadyb | will-nick-fuentes-streaming-platfor | Will Nick Fuente's streaming platform Cozy.tv still be accessible at the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,710,525,024 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,216,952 | YES | 0.901366 | 203 |
nhoyb50h9j | will-kamala-harris-deliver-an-eulog | Will Kamala Harris deliver an eulogy at Jimmy Carter's state funeral? | null | 1,722,690,899,091 | 1,737,399,322,640 | 1,737,399,322,640 | YES | 0.836628 | 12,788.522737 |
t22tt7ckwx | trump-to-impose-10-tariff-on-all-co | Trump to impose 10% tariff on all countries in first year? | null | 1,722,688,339,023 | 1,744,055,882,210 | 1,746,489,043,605 | YES | 0.727505 | 26,286.430794 |
1h8q34oqdu | trump-to-impose-60-tariff-on-china | Trump to impose 60% tariff on China in first year? | null | 1,722,688,245,710 | 1,747,043,720,530 | 1,747,043,720,530 | YES | 0.997626 | 38,670.356054 |
04om4lx7e9 | will-the-army-be-deployed-onto-brit | Will the army be deployed onto British streets before the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,666,436,487 | 1,735,629,900,000 | 1,735,796,917,393 | NO | 0.052832 | 8,955.274289 |
4n2mm0noqv | will-winners-of-ai-alignment-awards | Will "Winners of AI Alignment Awards Research Contest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,651,323,601 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,381,775 | NO | 0.069986 | 1,017 |
qrtj397ykc | will-i-move-from-my-current-house-i | Will I move from my current house in the presidio at the end of the year? | null | 1,722,640,052,244 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,744,941,595 | NO | 0.056964 | 7,223.372753 |
sdtdppxkqo | will-the-ceo-of-glaad-change-by-202 | Will the CEO of GLAAD change by 2025? | null | 1,722,623,960,169 | 1,735,774,087,362 | 1,735,774,087,362 | NO | 0.5 | 0 |
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