id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
i3qufho18l | will-i-have-close-friends-by-2025-luu5ruuhaa | Will I have close friends by 2025 ? | null | 1,722,606,881,489 | 1,735,765,140,000 | 1,738,119,484,272 | YES | 0.446478 | 37.281609 |
8fzu06q7gm | will-the-uk-government-announce-tha | Will the UK Government announce that they are abolishing the two-child benefit cap by the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,595,982,200 | 1,735,948,740,000 | 1,735,989,716,666 | NO | 0.01 | 9,933.512372 |
tobrjn3kd4 | will-one-of-big-5-banks-in-canada-c | Will one of big 5 banks in Canada collapse by the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,577,316,159 | 1,735,714,740,000 | 1,736,882,511,969 | NO | 0.01 | 1,262.481131 |
bwbbj21uec | will-bryce-young-finish-in-the-top | Will Bryce Young finish in the top 20 in QBR in 2024? | null | 1,722,522,271,124 | 1,739,336,340,000 | 1,739,594,077,098 | YES | 0.906904 | 22,362.294324 |
1h0hc35act | test-sg7dxzh4lo | test | null | 1,722,517,982,799 | 1,725,141,540,000 | 1,748,901,683,330 | YES | 0.69 | 99.660284 |
7snymp91h8 | will-all-teams-promoted-from-the-20 | Will all teams promoted from the 2023-2024 EFL Championship be relegated from the 2024-2025 Premier League? | null | 1,722,512,250,666 | 1,746,123,008,833 | 1,746,123,008,833 | YES | 0.990497 | 992.127664 |
00k7fbox9x | will-538-shut-down-before-eoy-2025 | Will 538 shut down before EOY 2025? | null | 1,722,498,078,304 | 1,741,210,633,292 | 1,741,210,633,292 | YES | 0.939624 | 7,089.609924 |
8t35a4ecy5 | will-the-biosecure-act-be-passed-by | Will the BIOSECURE Act be passed by April 1, 2025? | null | 1,722,487,339,014 | 1,743,566,340,000 | 1,743,619,490,915 | NO | 0.01 | 895.310332 |
5up519llsq | will-jazzs-xywav-drug-sell-14b-in-t | Will Jazz's Xywav drug sell >$1.4B in the US in 2024? | null | 1,722,487,025,987 | 1,740,632,340,000 | 1,741,067,160,057 | YES | 0.678401 | 105 |
guf14hqbvw | will-trump-pardon-any-of-the-convic | Will Trump pardon any of the convicted “J6ers” before 2028? | null | 1,722,474,083,811 | 1,737,518,127,254 | 1,737,518,127,254 | YES | 0.99 | 39,108.689257 |
zvkr514dud | will-at-least-10-people-die-from-ir-8ahnvbgpsi | Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before 2025? | null | 1,722,473,778,893 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,752,873,899 | NO | 0.027042 | 8,609.698995 |
b7vh46quna | will-dr-disrespect-be-livestreaming | Will Dr Disrespect be livestreaming on Youtube or Kick six months from now? | null | 1,722,471,557,679 | 1,738,386,625,208 | 1,738,386,625,208 | YES | 0.82 | 654.763871 |
ewh3phxsqn | will-interpreting-openais-whisper-m | Will "Interpreting OpenAI's Whisper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,469,454,337 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,591,127 | NO | 0.111775 | 250 |
bj1u3em3vi | will-we-sort-out-nelyas-legal-paran-fhemrhou5d | Will we sort out Nelya's legal parantage situation by the end of 2024 | null | 1,722,461,611,269 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,754,665,224 | NO | 0.009997 | 9,076.554079 |
xq97d903lx | when-the-next-potus-vp-are-sworn-in | When the next POTUS + VP are sworn in, will there be a picture of me in the same room as them wearing an OMORI t shirt? | null | 1,722,457,385,325 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,438,457,336 | NO | 0.021003 | 71,407.956235 |
u7vfy5uabx | will-understanding-and-controlling | Will "Understanding and controlling a maze-solving ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,433,342,551 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,355,222 | NO | 0.156867 | 20 |
cvae1dtdpr | will-colombias-president-gustavo-pe | Will Colombia's president Gustavo Petro accept Maduro's election 'victory' in Venezuela? | null | 1,722,419,351,758 | 1,737,729,494,393 | 1,737,729,494,393 | NO | 0.017217 | 1,945.587979 |
ixpw9r15yu | will-kennedy-win-any-electoral-coll | Will Kennedy win any electoral college votes in the 2024 US election, including faithless electors? | null | 1,722,392,998,127 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,883,056,085 | NO | 0.014003 | 920.358803 |
ysp1c9qz1l | will-kristian-blummenfelt-sign-for | Will Kristian Blummenfelt sign for a UCI WorldTeam for the 2025 road cycling season? | null | 1,722,368,933,991 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,847,260,843 | NO | 0.022489 | 830.157249 |
9q0hth8f3s | will-the-idf-reservists-who-engaged-qozzuol11n | Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be released from detention? | null | 1,722,352,072,865 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,810,052,893 | NO | 0.099591 | 3,276.126006 |
rsw65etdl2 | will-nicols-maduro-be-alive-on-jan | Will Nicolas Maduro be alive on Jan 1, 2025 | null | 1,722,351,286,987 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,738,395,371,497 | YES | 0.99 | 12,246.235865 |
im1xjrx0cx | will-the-idf-reservists-who-engaged | Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be found guilty of a crime? | null | 1,722,351,252,186 | 1,738,935,114,901 | 1,738,935,114,901 | YES | 0.95113 | 5,907.627198 |
4seu7vtk1w | will-mr-beast-drop-below-300m-subsc | Will Mr Beast drop below 300M subscribers before the end of 2024? | null | 1,722,290,921,309 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,314,231 | NO | 0.01 | 2,701.252352 |
wiphjj61eq | will-the-biden-government-contract | Will the Biden government contract SpaceX to provide rural America with internet? | null | 1,722,270,473,438 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,761,101,245 | NO | 0.05 | 4,215.788348 |
potlllb4rk | will-margot-robbies-kid-be-a-boy | Will Margot Robbie’s kid be a boy? | null | 1,722,244,210,672 | 1,735,968,706,986 | 1,735,968,706,986 | YES | 0.99 | 986.177926 |
5snkk5yl8v | will-shaquille-oneal-get-18-million | Will Shaquille O’Neal get 18 million followers on X/Twitter before 2025? | null | 1,722,243,779,735 | 1,735,664,340,000 | 1,735,968,447,711 | NO | 0.019943 | 603 |
91idj3t2cg | will-there-be-a-us-military-interve | Will there be a US military intervention in Venezuela in 2024? | null | 1,722,228,123,448 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,737,401,714,799 | NO | 0.013232 | 17,228.591999 |
3maniaf0el | will-california-state-route-1-be-op-g6c4wqizhp | Will California State Route 1 be open between Carmel and San Simeon before 2025? | null | 1,722,224,967,790 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,719,423,994 | NO | 0.042425 | 3,979.098508 |
g8wlzgdmt8 | will-gary-gensler-be-fired-as-sec-c | Will Gary Gensler step down or be fired as SEC Chairperson by March 31st 2025? | null | 1,722,220,114,460 | 1,743,485,512,491 | 1,743,485,512,491 | YES | 0.99 | 1,397.999433 |
ueqaxefrum | will-gpt5-be-able-to-write-a-15-pag | Will GPT5 be able to write a 1.5+ page essay about Rona Wang that is *accurate*? | null | 1,722,219,965,669 | 1,745,302,668,641 | 1,745,302,668,641 | YES | 0.374949 | 30 |
fnr3p4t34h | will-manifold-have-multiplechoice-p | Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025? | null | 1,722,214,758,107 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,819,938,035 | NO | 0.228242 | 154 |
8lkxxbd83d | will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-venezu-49ln3re98l | Will there be a civil war in Venezuela in 2024? | null | 1,722,210,699,466 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,729,932,849 | NO | 0.012161 | 85,174.874827 |
eupco0te2a | will-donald-trump-claim-that-any-de | Will Donald Trump claim that any electoral votes were stolen from him in the election? | null | 1,722,190,880,737 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,747,072,097 | NO | 0.026347 | 7,403.989381 |
h7a8omkwm4 | am-i-going-to-make-more-than-100000-0qucn76pzw | Am I going to make more than $1 000 000 by the end of the year? | null | 1,722,190,873,373 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,690,175,760 | NO | 0.033919 | 52,889.880759 |
zq9bfsoz6r | will-there-be-a-media-panic-about-a | Will there be a media panic about AI after the release of the next generation of models? | null | 1,722,184,477,475 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,746,618,566,543 | NO | 0.131967 | 352.472964 |
idwvwriiz2 | will-what-will-gpt2030-look-like-ma | Will "What will GPT-2030 look like?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,722,174,634,152 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,518,865 | NO | 0.12 | 166.04925 |
rzeoxye70u | will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-zlhpsmwufw | Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the first quarter of 2025? | null | 1,722,168,684,815 | 1,737,116,290,999 | 1,737,116,290,999 | YES | 0.989953 | 10,805.047044 |
o9ud80rdlx | donald-trump-attempts-to-overturn-t | Donald Trump attempts to overturn the official 2024 election results | null | 1,722,154,369,288 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,450,403,287 | NO | 0.011595 | 18,130.110952 |
zu16ntsvq8 | donald-trump-publicly-denies-the-of | Donald Trump publicly denies the official 2024 election results | null | 1,722,152,678,072 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,450,416,901 | NO | 0.009678 | 148,960.917852 |
6lk34wiv44 | will-both-of-the-stranded-nasa-astr | Will both of the stranded NASA astronauts return to earth alive? | null | 1,722,150,687,950 | 1,742,995,157,498 | 1,742,995,157,498 | YES | 0.99 | 2,412.095824 |
pj0qv7efsj | wil-yacine-kache-still-be-working-a | Wil yacine / @kache still be working at Twitter / X at the end of 2025? | null | 1,722,136,911,800 | 1,750,486,887,615 | 1,750,486,887,615 | NO | 0.01 | 23,595.142228 |
xy9lgacz9b | -will-more-than-1355802-acres-burn | 🔥 Will More Than 1,355,802 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season? | null | 1,722,124,854,201 | 1,735,693,200,000 | 1,735,695,533,072 | NO | 0.018981 | 40,662.596958 |
3o25oxio4x | will-china-have-a-model-in-the-top | Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025? | null | 1,722,116,979,276 | 1,740,902,340,000 | 1,740,934,562,761 | YES | 0.99 | 1,457.995077 |
xtfz74vr1j | will-any-single-2024-california-wil | Will any single 2024 California wildfire surpass 1 million acres burned? | null | 1,722,090,701,502 | 1,735,692,768,843 | 1,735,692,768,843 | NO | 0.033407 | 726.942631 |
5nluirsf9p | will-i-still-be-using-cursor-aiide | Will I still be using Cursor (AI-IDE) as daily driver in 6 months? | null | 1,722,085,310,599 | 1,738,450,740,000 | 1,738,490,142,689 | YES | 0.643366 | 668.421414 |
rj4a6bgm68 | is-mrbeast-a-net-positive-for-the-w | Is MrBeast a net positive for the world? | null | 1,722,070,537,757 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,404,202,882 | NO | 0.162024 | 16,306.370713 |
qgjwvy11yw | will-googles-search-market-share-dr | Will Google's search market share drop below 86% for any month before January 1st, 2025? | null | 1,722,047,771,629 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,224,647,091 | NO | 0.026996 | 49,664.578722 |
kufg1kv85t | will-the-ongoing-civil-unrest-in-ba | Will the ongoing civil unrest in Bangladesh be considered a civil war by the end of year? | null | 1,722,036,859,928 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,066,693 | NO | 0.057566 | 1,080.544295 |
1mcb0lemkm | will-section-174-be-reverted-in-202 | Will Section 174 Allow Full Expensing of SWE Salaries for R&E in 2025? | null | 1,722,011,124,904 | 1,751,729,505,190 | 1,751,729,505,190 | YES | 0.839301 | 1,287 |
yn2vuleqsq | will-primal-reach-2000000-users-in | Will Primal reach 2,000,000 users in 2024? | null | 1,722,002,197,792 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,737,659,032,080 | NO | 0.0227 | 725.090864 |
ytlkwrhopj | will-a-french-government-organisati | Will a French government organisation claim that the SNCF vandalism was sponsored by the Russian government this year | null | 1,721,985,548,720 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,911,064,156 | NO | 0.022008 | 1,024.070061 |
3ddpintqxs | will-the-de-facto-president-at-the | Will the *de facto* president at the end of inauguration day be the person who the AP called the election for? | null | 1,721,976,710,301 | 1,737,516,467,870 | 1,737,516,467,870 | YES | 0.99 | 13,944.358407 |
ougi4gucc | if-joe-biden-is-still-us-president | If Joe Biden is still US president after the November 5 election will he resign before the inauguration January 2025? | null | 1,721,963,326,489 | 1,737,388,709,790 | 1,737,388,709,790 | NO | 0.013239 | 12,550.215231 |
2y7ql7xhi5 | will-donald-trump-say-the-word-pale | Will Donald Trump say the word “Palestine” between now and the election? | null | 1,721,961,777,008 | 1,730,897,940,000 | 1,735,690,784,514 | NO | 0.06738 | 1,814.884147 |
v85zh868js | will-why-its-so-hard-to-talk-about-mtonujd28s | Will "Why it's so hard to talk about Consciousness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,955,607,836 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,490,229 | NO | 0.139721 | 2 |
ds7xz8vtw2 | will-why-its-so-hard-to-talk-about | Will "Why it's so hard to talk about Consciousness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,955,607,274 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,718,200 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
9swh92ekd7 | will-hungary-receive-oil-from-lukoi | Will Hungary receive oil from Lukoil through Ukraine on 2025-01-01? | null | 1,721,903,392,242 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,736,254,629,957 | YES | 0.92773 | 303 |
fso13b9cqx | will-going-crazy-and-getting-better-84sk3vvxzw | Will "Going Crazy and Getting Better Again" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,903,307,594 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,724,446 | NO | 0.12 | 166.04925 |
jnia6ihssy | will-another-medical-miracle-make-t-5tpd48o1n5 | Will "Another medical miracle" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,900,559,184 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,731,171 | NO | 0.15 | 12.040495 |
yrgaxppbkm | will-tumbles-succeed-in-restructuri | Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex? | null | 1,721,889,086,630 | 1,746,384,379,700 | 1,746,384,379,700 | NO | 0.014852 | 1,636.524411 |
tr5f12jehl | will-value-systematization-how-valu | Will "Value systematization: how values become cohe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,843,888,565 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,740,254 | NO | 0.102611 | 355 |
30atirw431 | will-donald-trump-be-found-guilty-o-kquyybwrc2 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty on one or more of the 2020 Election Result federal charges? | null | 1,721,837,766,452 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,708,537,651 | NO | 0.076021 | 250 |
378vxqnlxj | will-death-grips-release-a-new-albu-4yugdknaec | Will Death Grips release a new album by the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,815,075,355 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,737,386,961,434 | NO | 0.25411 | 72 |
asg19dq8tt | will-portugal-have-parliamentary-el | Will Portugal have parliamentary elections before 2028? | null | 1,721,783,373,277 | 1,744,347,256,603 | 1,744,347,256,603 | YES | 0.99 | 1,966.985424 |
ck0paw1jur | will-another-medical-miracle-make-t | Will "Another medical miracle" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,783,309,754 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,746,630 | NO | 0.15 | 12.040495 |
c4vt1i7rnp | will-rfk-be-allowed-to-participate | Will RFK be allowed to participate in any presidential debate alongside Trump or Harris? (2024) | null | 1,721,776,560,497 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,795,202,026 | NO | 0.00906 | 1,413.835087 |
jud5rp17nc | will-alexine-le-port-find-a-boyfrie | Will Chris Lakin find a girlfriend/partner by 2025 | null | 1,721,774,592,157 | 1,747,760,218,065 | 1,747,760,218,065 | YES | 0.941242 | 310 |
pzk4rxy0ww | will-kamala-harris-be-impeached-by | Will Kamala Harris be impeached by the House of Representatives in 2024? | null | 1,721,765,089,906 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,024,600,226 | NO | 0.010415 | 9,809.34734 |
01yiw8urnv | will-i-work-out-every-week-at-least | Will I work out every week at least 3 times from now to the end of 2024 | null | 1,721,759,421,218 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,739,066,372,811 | NO | 0.531824 | 254.952339 |
8inxpv5vhk | will-grok-3-be-the-most-powerful-ai | Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'? | null | 1,721,742,569,574 | 1,740,100,650,719 | 1,740,606,188,519 | YES | 0.79355 | 327,360.241562 |
jfc923d1b2 | will-joe-biden-finish-his-term | Will Joe Biden finish his term? | null | 1,721,712,839,125 | 1,735,678,740,000 | 1,737,402,586,593 | YES | 0.973343 | 19,662.833714 |
nue042dkib | will-it-ever-be-more-joever | Will it ever be more Joever? | null | 1,721,710,082,160 | 1,737,497,066,720 | 1,737,497,066,720 | NO | 0.01771 | 1,407.65513 |
t539d5xpow | will-eminem-announce-a-sequel-to-th | Will Eminem announce a sequel to The Death of Slim Shady in 2024? | null | 1,721,702,547,561 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,689,809,282 | NO | 0.530625 | 239.185971 |
zz6xuwj12m | will-formula-1-try-to-ban-team-orde | Will Formula 1 try to ban team orders by next season? | null | 1,721,694,867,325 | 1,741,985,940,000 | 1,741,987,839,647 | NO | 0.065516 | 2,926.422325 |
ch4bud7o04 | will-grok-3-be-released-by-dec-31-2 | Will Grok 3 be released by Dec 31, 2024? | null | 1,721,692,288,525 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,495,849 | NO | 0.014947 | 15,073.604936 |
bct0ym0ef2 | if-trump-is-elected-will-lina-kahn | If Trump is elected, will Lina Khan remain Chair of the FTC for all of 2025? | null | 1,721,688,139,584 | 1,742,919,280,610 | 1,742,919,280,610 | NO | 0.049256 | 40,099.152895 |
n03davh9xr | will-the-manchinbarrasso-permitting | Will the Manchin-Barrasso permitting reform bill be signed into law? | null | 1,721,686,969,173 | 1,735,880,340,000 | 1,736,123,929,420 | NO | 0.041909 | 5,056.31952 |
3lc1lfdbux | will-joe-biden-die-before-jimmy-car | Will Joe Biden die before Jimmy Carter? | null | 1,721,685,754,607 | 1,743,920,383,824 | 1,743,920,383,824 | NO | 0.01 | 1,308.975938 |
6nmss1e573 | will-a-major-train-derailment-causi | Will a major train derailment (causing hazardous material release) occur in Ohio between July 21, 2024 and Dec 31, 2024 | null | 1,721,685,686,279 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,745,382,605 | NO | 0.040789 | 6,140.253293 |
u8she4t6eq | will-a-winter-storm-causing-ice-acc | Will a winter storm causing ice accumulation of at least 0.5 inches occur in Texas between July 21 and Dec 31, 2024 | null | 1,721,685,577,723 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,745,392,050 | NO | 0.039275 | 4,166.537246 |
0l5rki0bm1 | will-a-blizzard-with-snowfall-excee | Will a blizzard with snowfall exceeding 12 inches occur in Minnesota between July 21, 2024 and December 31, 2024? | null | 1,721,685,472,719 | 1,734,921,644,554 | 1,735,745,401,062 | NO | 0.334234 | 944.501166 |
wsxwd3y5cu | will-a-tornado-with-an-ef4-or-highe | Will a tornado with an EF4 or higher rating strike in Oklahoma between July 21, 2024 and December 31, 2024? | null | 1,721,685,426,277 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,745,407,132 | NO | 0.047327 | 3,560 |
buismz3qc2 | will-joe-biden-ultimately-give-jimm | Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request? | null | 1,721,678,625,149 | 1,737,250,745,715 | 1,737,250,745,715 | YES | 0.99 | 11,167.61838 |
zu0rqtsn31 | will-the-nouns-dao-themed-cafe-open | Will the Nouns DAO cafe open in California before the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,672,728,469 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,354,519,922 | NO | 0.493248 | 12 |
3q9tsoxl3o | will-my-tentative-best-guess-on-how | Will "My tentative best guess on how EAs and Ration..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,669,965,654 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,332,810 | NO | 0.1 | 392.047163 |
nuox4c2v42 | will-yann-lecun-remain-the-head-of | Will Yann LeCun remain the head of AI at Meta (Facebook) on July 1st 2025? | null | 1,721,665,347,948 | 1,751,405,002,470 | 1,751,405,002,470 | YES | 0.985194 | 62,369.798451 |
yx7xo9clf2 | will-measuring-and-improving-the-fa | Will "Measuring and Improving the Faithfulness of M..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,654,138,369 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,342,704 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
b8ssmf2dct | will-xai-have-the-most-powerful-ai | Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024? | null | 1,721,647,248,555 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,702,317,856 | NO | 0.090593 | 7,381.749304 |
8vxqbzj2zu | will-what-would-a-compute-monitorin | Will "What would a compute monitoring plan look lik..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,640,650,286 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,353,610 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
0pww9p4lgb | elon-musk-publicly-mentions-manifol-p58anx17ee | Elon Musk publicly mentions or responds related to Manifold again by mid 2025 | null | 1,721,609,830,276 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,358,137,379 | NO | 0.029347 | 6,728.456098 |
4d3c2fe60v | will-the-number-of-monthly-active-u | Will the number of monthly active users on Manifold drop between November 30th, 2024 and December 31st, 2024? | null | 1,721,606,258,416 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,192,713,745 | YES | 0.96944 | 5,380.959762 |
hfhceoqzcm | will-president-biden-resign-his-pre | Will President Biden resign his Presidency to Kamala Harris before the newly elected President is installed in January? | null | 1,721,602,918,285 | 1,737,420,200,295 | 1,737,420,200,295 | NO | 0.008495 | 20,910.700556 |
wr7i4arfxp | will-a-flood-cause-over-1-billion-i | Will a flood cause over $1 billion in damage in the Northeast between July 20 and December 31, 2024 ? | null | 1,721,599,377,500 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,745,415,297 | NO | 0.01 | 8,951.526602 |
rnk60zq0z3 | will-a-winter-storm-cause-over-1-bi | Will a winter storm cause over $1 billion in damage in the Northeast between July 20 and December 31, 2024 ? | null | 1,721,599,278,440 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,745,420,569 | NO | 0.032666 | 4,455 |
e6ef0u36e2 | will-there-be-major-social-unrest-i | Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? | null | 1,721,598,823,576 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,359,659,929 | NO | 0.049628 | 40,469.855067 |
i8e6ws2e0b | will-kamala-harris-say-youre-fired | Will Kamala Harris say “you’re fired!” to Donald Trump? | null | 1,721,595,142,983 | 1,737,476,267,934 | 1,737,476,267,934 | NO | 0.01 | 1,176.030113 |
w5axsao3zq | will-president-biden-issues-executi-99ek0skyim | Will "President Biden Issues Executive Order on Saf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,586,190,917 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,381,405 | NO | 0.111775 | 250 |
gglbxcmok5 | will-president-biden-issues-executi | Will "President Biden Issues Executive Order on Saf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,586,181,636 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,385,956 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 |
m71j0802uu | usa-will-there-be-fatal-casualties-gzfiru9bwz | USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Inauguration Day? | null | 1,721,577,922,049 | 1,737,500,340,000 | 1,737,502,463,229 | NO | 0.01 | 11,372.460178 |
k13ozgvkoc | will-nate-silver-be-involved-in-a-m | Will Nate Silver be involved in a major scandal in 2024? | null | 1,721,546,127,221 | 1,742,257,279,342 | 1,742,257,279,342 | NO | 0.025291 | 557.607402 |
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