Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.49999999999999994
kbQd8Qa5z8Ij9owzbmzS
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.49999999999999994
will-the-fda-list-at-least-350-appr
20
{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}
Will the FDA list at least 350 approvals for March 2022?
1646110740000
BjRgmIaYc1gU8oQ27b2dcIIBM9w2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}
0
5.8502737455136105
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645237730752
orrukje
This market resolves to YES if there are at least 350 Approvals / Tentative Approvals listed for February 2022 on this webpage: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process. The market closes at the time listed below, and will be resolved on March 2nd in order to allow time fo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 14.14284273051214, "YES": 14.142842730512138}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645237768261
100
orrukje
1645237730752
0
https://firebasestorage.…264-f25790ee449d
1
1715658601169
0
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532818}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574821}]
["science-default", "economics-default"]
0.49999999999999994
0.04103967753623497
Eseu4h8HITsPM9SVLgGK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04103967753623497
will-the-fda-list-at-least-350-appr-876f7c84f2f0
523.2741615119005
{"NO": 110.45357064459725, "YES": 16.27226784350229}
Will the FDA list at least 350 approvals for February 2022?
1646110740000
BjRgmIaYc1gU8oQ27b2dcIIBM9w2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 117, "YES": 15}
0
4.946579379226845
True
play
NO
public
1645237934190
orrukje
This market resolves to YES if there are at least 350 combined Approvals and Tentative Approvals listed for February 2022 on this webpage: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process. Otherwise it resolves to NO. The market closes at the time listed below, and will be resolve...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 124.09918222483583, "YES": 25.67264233217638}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646226256020
100
orrukje
1645237934190
0
https://firebasestorage.…264-f25790ee449d
7
1715657828354
0
1
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525678}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567194}]
["science-default", "economics-default"]
1646100123261
0.04103967753623497
0.7273010286489626
cvASSE4oUurpO0nVwyC1
{"NO": 618.0504612936338, "YES": 1123.984889970569}
0.594573914807983
will-altos-labs-trial-an-antiaging
998.3029317549083
{"NO": 107, "YES": 35.745432524280105}
Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030?
1893473940000
CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 107, "YES": 40}
0
9.579973687492313
False
basic
public
1645242004587
Natália 🔍
This resolves to "YES" if this Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9592/altos-labs-trials-an-anti-aging-intervention/ resolves to a date before January 1st, 2030 UTC.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.36397805853437, "YES": 79.79042985576433}
{"creatorFee": 11.634390132992618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009327379053088815, "YES": 0.000360555127546399}
0
1000
Natalia
1716867094325
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5e-e63e9b97f716
1
24
1650314675370
0
15
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530800}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1667926472196}]
["science-default", "longevity"]
1716867090895
0.8347541361107852
9xzWk9kZb7nEb1z7gYBR
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8347541361107852
will-my-opt-application-get-approve
270
{"NO": 50, "YES": 195.99999999999997}
Will my OPT application get approved by June 13, 2022?
1648564887620
CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 196}
0
4.799805057684986
True
play
YES
public
1645243913653
Natália 🔍
I'll apply for OPT, which is a type of temporary US work authorization for students on the F-1 visa, on March 1st. Relevant data on OPT approvals can be found at https://opttimeline.com/IOE.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 100.00050000000002, "YES": 224.75851930627678}
{"creatorFee": 1.9999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.4999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1648564887620
100
Natalia
1645243913653
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5e-e63e9b97f716
5
1715657688471
0
1645823863819
0.8347541361107852
0.012193670558197834
4ETRstU3mHx5IE4f6LxJ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-pepe-still-be-1-on-top-creator
1922.4771906729793
{"NO": 1345.8025841219442, "YES": 65.72022520507664}
Will Pepe still be #1 on "Top Creators" in a few days?
1646191800000
rpPhNvA397UkhNUQsVFMQEKRtyV2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1349.5, "YES": 65.5}
0
10.389577992156266
True
play
NO
public
1645244373992
Robert McIntyre
Resolves to YES if I check and see that Pepe is #1 on the Top Creators leaderboard at market close. (Currently, Pepe has only one market which has huge trades that appear and disappear, and it seems to me like it's unintended that this should result in becoming "Top Creator", so consider this a bug report as well.)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1402.8915858358746, "YES": 155.86745230473306}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1663706308041
100
RLMgold
1663706351794
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1zo00WvcSPmsrxKW9c-ekFTEYJFpwd1r7TrV=s96-c
10
1650313792768
0
1
13
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779605598}]
["please-resolve"]
1663706350853
0.012193670558197834
0.29326548224054577
PBMTQSZqUlaWhfdV7A0Z
{"NO": 108.77634966156128, "YES": 88.81109254663365}
1
will-i-be-at-least-quite-happy-on-a
763.4859344792703
{"NO": 342.4209543966027, "YES": 129.43144507709056}
Will I be at least quite happy on August 3, 2022?
1659585540000
CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 344.5, "YES": 148.5}
0
3.2903498683274846
True
play
YES
public
1645245087950
Natália 🔍
I have depression and am currently taking ketamine for it, though it hasn't helped much yet.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 397.403736217313, "YES": 254.3932016296842}
{"creatorFee": 4.439538769916679, "platformFee": 0.209347302537704, "liquidityFee": 1.2560838152262237}
{"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773}
0
1666142485914
101.25608381522623
Natalia
1666142559904
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5e-e63e9b97f716
0
29
1650314567843
0
1
31
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ymezf2YMJ9aaILxT95uWJj7gnx83", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1665339540793}]
["please-resolve"]
1659533649930
1666142558145
0.33697712760442444
0.5698410433729836
9elbOh1HcdwNm4szEJsl
{"NO": 52.87500644537084, "YES": 161.77500644537082}
0
in-west-virginia-v-environmental-pr
158.12499355462916
{"NO": 42, "YES": 69}
In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, will the U.S. Supreme Court allow the EPA to proceed with comprehensive carbon dioxide regulation against power plants?
1656638635706
770w4pEdMIO2G9qDS92m7z8A2K23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 42, "YES": 69}
0
2.981972958740572
True
play
NO
public
1645248394319
James Heaney
This market will resolve to "yes" if, in West Virginia v. EPA (2022), the Supreme Court affirms the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision in American Lung Association v. Environmental Protection Agency (2019), specifically: if the Supreme Court affirms that the EPA's authority under 42 U.S.C. § 7411(d) generally auth...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 72.80167580708564, "YES": 83.79223114752347}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000565685424949238, "YES": 0.0008246211251235322}
0
1656638635706
100
JamesHeaney
1656604647733
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxsbELA_-dEyhPG9Qv4OemMlC41DEik9uFvoTh6=s96-c
2
1650313827482
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474184}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330763}]
["politics-default", "scotus"]
1656604646434
1645289344572
0.5698410433729836
0.16465491459224763
AKHr9UiCnIt9myD91Ziu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.16465491459224763
will-the-sp-500-fall-at-least-3-on
490.5217036614204
{"NO": 295.0488224742548, "YES": 54.42947386432479}
Will the S&P 500 fall at least 3% on February 22, 2022?
1645534800000
CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 295, "YES": 54}
0
4.74865930404065
True
play
NO
public
1645254460019
Natália 🔍
This question resolves to YES if the S&P 500 falls by at least 3.0% from opening to closing price on February 22, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 319.41434279055414, "YES": 141.81063496433268}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546}
0
1645563716337
100
Natalia
1645254460019
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5e-e63e9b97f716
18
1715657699967
0
1
1645498061643
0.16465491459224763
0.9410543102029416
tAsV3l13NsuDAtctED0L
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9410543102029416
will-this-market-paired-market-1-cl
2156.430892305564
{"NO": 295.4990234190684, "YES": 1322.0700842753672}
Will this market (Paired Market 1) close with an equal or higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 2)?
1645862340000
JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 297, "YES": 1326}
0
4.645553703340585
True
play
YES
public
1645256968670
D. Kingsley
This market (Paired Market 1) resolves to "YES" if, after its close, it has an equal or higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 2). Both markets close at the same time. Feb 18, 11:52pm: This link is to Paired Market 2: https://manifold.markets/DKingsley/will-this-market-paired-market-2-cl Feb 19, 10:29pm: The...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 392.72553482548125, "YES": 1569.171662885431}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645892512218
100
DKingsley
1645256968670
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c
17
1715658805336
0
1
1645328703315
0.9410543102029416
0.2372494193190942
2fobVb0MQIBipZjKk8E3
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2372494193190942
will-this-market-paired-market-2-cl
3213.9472496374046
{"NO": 1375.7427556856276, "YES": 814.3099946769676}
Will this market (Paired Market 2) close with a higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 1)?
1645862340000
JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1387, "YES": 816}
0
4.637689196227097
True
play
NO
public
1645257026267
D. Kingsley
This market (Paired Market 2) resolves to "YES" if, after its close, it has a higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 1). Both markets close at the same time. Feb 18, 11:52pm: This link is to Paired Market 1: https://manifold.markets/DKingsley/will-this-market-paired-market-1-cl Feb 19, 10:31pm: These markets...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1912.6964301671578, "YES": 1066.7369851575788}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645892489357
100
DKingsley
1645257026267
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c
19
1715656924866
0
1
1645326917369
0.2372494193190942
yyBpf4FT8oDFSTq9pXWQ
who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii-in-202
20
Who will win Super Bowl LVII in 2023?
1676264340000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.850308340515122
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645276636193
David Glidden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII Feb 19, 8:24am: resolving N/A and recreating with refined title here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645276715653
240
dglid
1645276636193
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "64625f982761", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yyBpf4FT8oDFSTq9pXWQ", "createdTime": 1645276636451, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409825}]
["sports-default"]
True
6dMinXYxX6tEQTLV8UGv
who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii
102636.29696991852
Who will win Super Bowl LVII in 2023?
1676258124489
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.615961401323885
True
basic
c2d1347eb880
public
1645276833000
David Glidden
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scheduled for Sunday, February 12th, 2023. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII", "class": "no-unde...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.30593149880654097, "platformFee": 0.07648287470163524, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1676258124489
4439.999999999999
dglid
1678671490936
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
92
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "932a752d9a7f", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0049587117899355165, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.474397183177823, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6dMinXYxX6tEQTLV8UGv", "createdTime": 1645276833190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...
94
[{"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1666923264548}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396850}, {"name": "Superbowl LVII", "slug": "superbowl-lvii", "userId": "TUk0E...
["sports-default", "nfl", "superbowl-lvii"]
1676258111321
1678671487703
{"c2d1347eb880": 100}
True
mBOEWA3gPRM6dm4Dd43E
which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr
30
Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
1704603540000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.5856510176524115
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645278568023
David Glidden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645278625679
260
dglid
1645278568023
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2448ec70f232", "prob": 0.11111111111111109, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.809176411426011, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.4734112914081, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mBOEWA3gPRM6dm4Dd43E", "createdTime": 1645278568207, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503750}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867385}]
["politics-default", "us-politics"]
False
True
vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n
which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-a7cb15789357
7188.092987348178
Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
1736225940000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.11617218376396
False
basic
public
1645278657341
David Glidden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election Market closes end of day January 6th, 2025 when electoral votes expected to be formally counted and the electoral result announced before a joint session of Congress. Related: Who will be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee? https://manifold...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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2200
dglid
1719632562520
0.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
94
5
ANYONE
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[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582382}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510664}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId"...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics"]
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1719632559421
1649370185213
True
prob-desc
True
0.49275479007537576
9g5y9kT8QIhiKX2FhglX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.49275479007537576
will-the-feedback-of-my-team-matchi
22
{"NO": 14.5, "YES": 7.5}
will the feedback of my team matching interview be positive despite the interviewer going on holidays without submitting his feedback?
1645657140000
tPWTREoGAYQDRDU5if09l7OgFWY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 14.5, "YES": 7.5}
0
5.785161119043017
True
play
NO
public
1645281818781
oerpli
Had a team matching interview at Google on Feb 14th. The interviewer went on a 1 week holiday on Feb 15th and didn't submit his feedback before that. Will resolve the market when I hear back from them.
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 15.669365044570249, "YES": 15.44393085001354}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1646290989305
100
oerpli
1645281818781
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhpX9PQdPpByylJbq2XPagtr7Xug6lYJoLAdIfxRY8=s96-c
5
1715657678062
0
1
0.49275479007537576
0.019849748763201572
AhLHQjyYGmvNLdP12UKi
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.019849748763201572
will-man-city-beat-tottenham-today
5326.444741608673
{"NO": 1242.3972358037652, "YES": 257.15802258756185}
Will Man City beat Tottenham today?
1645300800000
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1280, "YES": 150}
0
4.647909129851015
True
play
NO
public
1645290593926
Tyler
In today’s (Feb 19, 2022) game.
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 1474.698499385618, "YES": 271.9068001915405}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1645298860921
100
Tyler31
1645290593926
0
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
4
1715657712556
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397681}]
["sports-default"]
0.019849748763201572
0.9649486842320475
AKeb9Kf3se55lUNvGcC2
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9649486842320475
will-the-question-russian-invasion
2502.661724717936
{"NO": 113, "YES": 2346.338275282064}
Will the question "Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023" on Metaculus resolve as positive?
1672635540000
yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 113, "YES": 2350}
0
4.635243221623901
True
play
YES
public
1645295888098
Charles Vorbach
Will this question resolve positively? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 460.4374161504269, "YES": 2415.8532771577056}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}
0
1645719060235
100
CharlesVorbach
1645295888098
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c
19
1715657701447
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474931}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226544}]
["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1645565427474
False
0.9649486842320475
0.9756822550305262
j5BC8XeZjvydIBXAD1aX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9756822550305262
will-the-video-game-elden-ring-rece
2660.651239755425
{"NO": 316.30403281353284, "YES": 2183.0447274310422}
Will the Video Game "Elden Ring" receive a metacritic rating of 90 or above?
1645743540000
ZHksHVGImoNz8rFfEqYDMZ6l1yw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 271, "YES": 2184}
0
4.634924322558586
True
play
YES
public
1645297968584
Blue Barry
This market resolves to "Yes" if the game Elden Ring has a metascore of 90 or above on the website metacritic.com at march 1st 23:59 GMT. It resolves to "No" otherwise. Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm Feb 23, 1:44pm: I am referring to the PC-Version of the game.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 389.75229892629534, "YES": 2468.773454474161}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1645795430877
100
BlueBarry
1645297968584
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxk40cETag7Ve1bQF4HTKq598iW_Fh3ZCJ9I74Y=s96-c
17
1715658563907
0
1
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546724}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574065}]
["economics-default", "culture-default"]
1645655469563
0.9756822550305262
0.04178473591749268
DLkD141AvISUbLVFD35Y
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04178473591749268
will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas
1665.0217972200703
{"NO": 627.8489281867564, "YES": 88.17011717239441}
Will the Federal Reserve make a basis-point hike between 49 and 99 points in March?
1648760700000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 647.5, "YES": 82.5}
0
4.682575142965289
True
play
NO
public
1645299580361
Duncn
Will Federal Reserve make a 50 or 75 basis point hike in the fed funds target rate between the start of March 1st and the end of March 31st? This will still resolve YES if they do something wired like a 63% hike, or if they do two separate 25 basis point hikes. It will resolve NO if they fall outside this range for the...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 700.9010702901498, "YES": 146.36391297803925}
{"creatorFee": 3.4916145516199757, "platformFee": 0.8729036379049939, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1648765392266
100
Duncn
1645299580361
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
19
1715657782743
0
1
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566639}]
["economics-default"]
1645309597965
0.04178473591749268
Dr9DeDCWy6BNnwh36EX1
name-my-dog
100
Name my dog
1645966740000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.0189258735310585
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645302252493
Undox
Correct name wins. Otherwise closest name wins. Profile pic dog.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645310611654
220
Undox
1645302252493
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "497b2b877457", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Dr9DeDCWy6BNnwh36EX1", "createdTime": 1645302252790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...
True
0.47197701080746873
jjrzQR0IMHlfz6435WSV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.47197701080746873
this-market-will-resolve-based-on-t
1771.6029218922517
{"NO": 240.58932524396215, "YES": 237.8077528637864}
This market will resolve based on the number of votes for yes/no.
1645592340000
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 203, "YES": 270}
0
4.7144284669515
True
play
NO
public
1645304192383
Garrett Baker
One person, one vote. I will only count votes which are de-anonymized, and you vote for whichever share you buy. I'm creating this market to see if we can still have large meta-markets without their results getting dominated by whales. If the number of votes for YES exceeds that for NO, then the market resolves YES....
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 377.1540549121638, "YES": 294.3119773310288}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645592612516
100
GarrettBaker
1645304192383
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
20
1715658584416
0
1645592305239
0.47197701080746873
0.9761121979655455
CCfqjqZmuhAoA183u6Wq
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9761121979655455
will-the-ground-invasion-of-ukraine
461.0060627261476
{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 411.4939372738524}
Will the ground invasion of Ukraine occur during the night?
1648785540000
q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53
cpmm-1
{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 411.5}
0
4.71841250896618
True
play
YES
public
1645308765641
alexlyzhov
From Wikipedia: "Typically combat at night is favorable to the attacker". Resolves YES if and only if a ground invasion of (currently unoccupied regions of) Ukraine by Russian troops starts during the night (10pm - 7am UTC+2), as judged by credible reports. If troops in question are unmarked, they must be identified ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.94078516974562, "YES": 453.4796108344097}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645754429846
100
alexlyzhov
1645308765641
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145
7
1715657753721
0
1645703516830
0.9761121979655455
0.1485910727668225
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{"NO": 1140.9811329046051, "YES": 36064.7524329353}
0
will-democrats-maintain-control-of
157560.10175887137
{"NO": 595.5279908206141, "YES": 188}
Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?
1668652345050
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 596, "YES": 188}
0
0.5686547268878801
True
basic
NO
public
1645312032880
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if, in the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, members of the Democratic party win a strict majority of seats. If I decide that the number of seats won by Democrats is ambiguous as of the resolu...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 699.3357138904213, "YES": 353.33728749417986}
{"creatorFee": 10.34702494022402, "platformFee": 1.1689238127459536, "liquidityFee": 6.9852223257125665}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1668652345050
1923.4166818060485
BoltonBailey
1668649429127
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
0
230
1650314763496
0
199
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1665776999106}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505270}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "...
["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]
1668649428960
1668644872229
0.005491091795560992
0.6967226401852001
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{"NO": 80984.0053467293, "YES": 1539.421648549809}
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will-democrats-maintain-control-of-8d067eb38c33
172851.51567534634
{"NO": 639.368697620784, "YES": 232.0911168285453}
Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?
1668325814051
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 642, "YES": 246}
0
0.20929325115460884
True
basic
YES
public
1645312377751
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if, after the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. Senate, members of the Democratic party are set to control a majority of seats in the Senate for the 2023-2024 period (or 50% of seats and the Vice Presidency). If I deci...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 748.2666246152822, "YES": 446.70013387902736}
{"creatorFee": 12.458997653563115, "platformFee": 0.06804844918568864, "liquidityFee": 0.33773737762757816}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
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1668325814051
5920.3377373776275
BoltonBailey
1704323525507
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
0
358
1650314543345
0
298
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["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"]
1668324447744
1669085648542
0.9917934683574484
0.4675803836736194
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4675803836736194
will-the-2022-march-madness-champio
541.9824595545277
{"NO": 243.59882156040297, "YES": 226.41871888506932}
Will the 2022 March Madness champion be a #1 seed?
1648105140000
QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 245, "YES": 226}
0
4.716110660630019
True
play
YES
public
1645313128904
edavis
This market resolves to YES if a #1 seeded team is the winner of the 2022 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament and NO if a team seeded #2 through #16 is the winner. Feb 19, 3:25pm: Related market: https://manifold.markets/sam/which-team-will-win-the-2022-mens-n
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 342.95884949738314, "YES": 321.39797123492144}
{"creatorFee": 9.76070161781889, "platformFee": 2.4401754044547226, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1649130262019
100
edavis
1645313128904
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c
10
1715657676560
0
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397512}]
["sports-default"]
1645325192158
0.4675803836736194
0.7541321938374087
0cYcOHPdnmnwLdEX14AM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7541321938374087
if-cpi-is-up-less-than-06-in-februa
220
{"NO": 55, "YES": 165}
If CPI is up less than 0.6% in February, will the Fed raise rates less than 50 bps in March?
1646969233752
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55, "YES": 165}
0
4.819494081954624
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645314983707
Tyler
Headline CPI, monthly change, seasonally adjusted, announced Mar 10. Feds target rate change at March 15-16 meeting. Related markets: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.0876253309696, "YES": 191.05059539464935}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1646969233752
100
Tyler31
1645314983707
0
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
3
1715656875005
0
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563379}]
["economics-default"]
0.7541321938374087
0.39979635414082293
wGuPVCS8U4milOsDbZbL
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.39979635414082293
if-cpi-is-up-06-or-more-in-feb-will
113
{"NO": 68, "YES": 45}
If CPI is up 0.6% or more in Feb, will the Fed raise rates by 50bps or more at Mar meeting?
1647513299454
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 68, "YES": 45}
0
4.980127975912483
True
play
NO
public
1645315467410
Tyler
Feb 19, 7:20pm: Related markets: https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/if-cpi-is-up-06-or-more-in-feb-will https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 87.54505126276415, "YES": 71.44991252898775}
{"creatorFee": 1.8, "platformFee": 0.45, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1647513299454
100
Tyler31
1645315467410
0
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
2
1715658872493
0
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577306}]
["economics-default"]
0.39979635414082293
0.5328536722752476
bV8NkYQ4a4qDUs526vYk
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5328536722752476
will-i-increase-my-total-portfolio
3478.5558860679985
{"NO": 1196.8456143015992, "YES": 762.5984996304024}
Will I increase my total portfolio from 1000 to 1200 in 7 days?
1645966740000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1194, "YES": 765}
0
4.640311462283509
True
play
NO
public
1645317210740
Undox
I wont buy M. This is comparing the total portfolio statistic shown on the Your Trades page. Some meta: I stuck 500 in this pool so trading on this pool also affects the number. Feb 20, 12:05pm: for the pedants: 1200 *or more* means YES. Feb 28, 7:02am: Final result: https://ibb.co/P9MyT3s The low result shown is a ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 1339.2435781082986, "YES": 1430.3327560423402}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1645992257573
100
Undox
1645317210740
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
19
1715658397132
0
1
1645884099816
0.5328536722752476
0.3537349236069136
XvYndtZvhre0lywffGbA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3537349236069136
guess-my-dogs-name-luke-y-or-browni
224
{"NO": 143, "YES": 81}
Guess my dogs name. Luke (Y) or Brownie (N)?
1645361940000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 143, "YES": 81}
0
4.8161952592560855
True
play
NO
public
1645319956295
Undox
The order of the names in the title decided by coinflip BTW. Feb 20, 12:19pm: Dog in profile pic. If that helps!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 180.075778494777, "YES": 133.22598095153964}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645361800877
100
Undox
1645319956295
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
6
1715658306649
0
0.3537349236069136
0.8907976537020496
CJ5IKGHeJ28FWG315Rjx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8907976537020496
will-kansas-win-the-big-xii-mens-ba
455
{"NO": 93, "YES": 266}
Will Kansas win the Big XII men's basketball tournament in 2022?
1647134555672
UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 93, "YES": 266}
0
4.745342903335443
True
play
YES
public
1645322909947
CompmanJX3
This market resolves YES if the University of Kansas wins the Big XII men's basketball tournament this year.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.63467452907688, "YES": 338.83260173776074}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007874007874011811, "YES": 0.0006164414002968976}
0
1647134555672
100
CompmanJX3
1645322909947
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c
5
1715657756692
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398048}]
["sports-default"]
0.8907976537020496
0.2
kIF1Z37KVNXC3fNu7Xn1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2
will-i-update-towards-a-more-positi
100
{"NO": 80, "YES": 20}
Will I update towards a more positive view of the Consensus auto-scientific-literature-analysis system in the next six months?
1692514740000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 80, "YES": 20}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645331218059
Scott Alexander
Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consen...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 89.44361352718259, "YES": 44.721806763591296}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1645331269822
100
ScottAlexander
1645331218059
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c
1
1715658594683
0
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532672}]
["science-default"]
0.2
0.43179053965026143
F4w8ACLoLmAVfOf5AQJL
{"NO": 64.55592972545502, "YES": 218.4571452295449}
0
will-i-update-towards-a-more-positi-00b26e1cae49
4290.610041663229
{"NO": 1540.112047999719, "YES": 1499.1372607036046}
Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months?
1660978740000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1557, "YES": 1499}
0
2.8303741541209035
True
play
NO
public
1645331332208
Scott Alexander
Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consen...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2280.1456981768415, "YES": 2009.472078442219}
{"creatorFee": 15.834089199950471, "platformFee": 0.9420751901436449, "liquidityFee": 4.639174020844997}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1689328311280
104.639174020845
ScottAlexander
1672575496898
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c
60
1650312614503
0
1
62
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525975}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040777740}]
["science-default", "please-resolve"]
1660964641748
1672575493100
0.18
0.24399860555139005
Nwk8VVabayc8VN2G1E8q
{"NO": 133.25818569843415, "YES": 315.2829750232935}
0.12003880049567567
conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade
13898.09085625807
{"NO": 1433.5054400134713, "YES": 1624.6961414911484}
Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv?
1672549140000
q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1449.5, "YES": 1462.5}
0
2.4996726119952433
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645331667270
alexlyzhov
Assume this question about Ukraine being invaded in 2022 resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ In this case, would Russian troops enter Kyiv in 2022 as asked here? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/ If there's no Ru...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2515.347390785731, "YES": 1739.4339691948508}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
0
1672589529743
163.5569020915268
alexlyzhov
1672589531800
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145
0
76
1650314560776
0
1
72
[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065243954}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065241326}, {"name": "Please Resolve", ...
["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "please-resolve", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1671478566185
1672589526791
0.12
0.21036204461843255
Xzz1SvqkLs7MXY1P5Y5b
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.21036204461843255
will-i-go-to-sleep-by-2-am-tonight
162
{"NO": 82, "YES": 40}
Will I go to sleep by 2 a.m. tonight?
1645351200000
WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72
cpmm-1
{"NO": 82, "YES": 40}
0
4.957404357180552
True
play
YES
public
1645334525955
Anna
This market resolves YES if I get in bed and put away my phone with the intent to sleep before 2 am Pacific tonight. I hope to do so but I'm pretty bad at this and woke up quite late today. (I'll resolve the market in the morning.) Feb 20, 9:24am: bedtime achieved at 1:59! thanks all for aligning my incentives :)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 108.41201040636597, "YES": 55.9560541912133}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1645377920068
100
tcheasdfjkl
1645334525955
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c
12
1715658312894
0
1
1645346509399
0.21036204461843255
0.7011028887277041
JpqspMrbwYXMHGFJMTtW
{"NO": 1352.5336111599272, "YES": 41.640967891496075}
1
will-dan-andrews-win-the-2022-victo
1736.2581697035732
{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}
Will Dan Andrews win the 2022 Victorian election?
1669458726559
pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}
0
4.197499841268942
True
play
YES
public
1645335867564
Watt
This market resolves to “YES”, if after the 2022 Victorian election Dan Andrews is premier.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925}
{"creatorFee": 0.78402235151697, "platformFee": 0.130670391919495, "liquidityFee": 0.78402235151697}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1669458726559
120.78402235151698
YairNeumann
1669455543919
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c
6
1650313898088
0
6
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481538}]
["politics-default"]
1669455541959
0.9870446394286483
0.882011759179941
JWIjAdttyjlqiGcAwx3U
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.882011759179941
will-team-a-be-more-influential-in
322.99999999999994
{"NO": 63.5, "YES": 219.50000000000006}
Will Team A be more influential in the debate on the fate of Kyiv than Team Z?
1648785540000
q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53
cpmm-1
{"NO": 63.5, "YES": 219.5}
0
6.6605847675185705
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645335896078
alexlyzhov
OK here's my mischievous attempt to encourage people to share good models. == The debate question == Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv? https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade Let's have a debate in the comments to this question you're reading right ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 97.20919195477349, "YES": 265.7817506912391}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1672590927636
100
alexlyzhov
1645335896078
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145
4
1650313896247
0
1
5
1645997343980
0.88
0.7396524381693326
g7xfEhugzpb7LMwmL64e
{"NO": 996.0484211032563, "YES": 992.2070550350331}
0.7403958384630194
will-an-ea-who-had-100m-in-feb-28-2
1885.2610092995342
{"NO": 75, "YES": 162.5155289467426}
Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
1930021200000
CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 75, "YES": 170}
0
9.583506401159905
False
basic
public
1645337616651
Natália 🔍
Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this. The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which I got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21): ————— Linch 1:14 PM Proposed bet operationalization: "a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 2...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.0278434429245229}
0
{"NO": 123.89822903645437, "YES": 202.64089015926453}
{"creatorFee": 8.509406424640632, "platformFee": 0.11992615059046909, "liquidityFee": 0.2704886403473699}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1000
Natalia
1718239437774
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5e-e63e9b97f716
2
43
1650314705489
0
35
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1660483075920}, {"name": "EA Index", "slug": "ea-index", "userId": "UJSbvX4oBRVfS1f5plXJ5Uc1LeZ2", "groupId": "oXZ5v3dDragVJoN4GBBK", "createdTime": 1678086200640}]
["effective-altruism", "ea-index"]
1718239434496
1669927674531
0.8002845929007169
q3oAExjQE3bXIqsrSR25
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8002845929007169
will-bjp-indias-ruling-party-win-st
26
{"NO": 9, "YES": 17}
Will BJP (India's ruling party) win state elections in Uttar Pradesh (India's most populous state)?
1646887576245
uI8uEZMyDTStfFCmbFISdbeLKqw1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9, "YES": 17}
0
5.675241861354484
True
play
YES
public
1645351876571
Siddharth Ratnam
This market resolves to 'YES' if BJP holds the highest number of assembly constituency seats 'won', one day from after counting of votes is closed (on 11 March 2022)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 11.619724635291492, "YES": 23.260137583428005}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1646887576245
100
SiddharthRatnam
1645351876571
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwKjHpJgB1L9tZ7N0YcQMiI1XmcGdzl24QzWtkE=s96-c
3
1715658725600
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506086}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243801}]
["politics-default", "india"]
False
0.8002845929007169
0.8794352548599277
OR9FQ7Gdtvft0AmHGzMJ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8794352548599277
will-mm-make-it-easier-to-associate
72
{"NO": 12.5, "YES": 59.5}
Will MM make it easier to associate free response # references with the specific response wording?
1647410340000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 12.5, "YES": 59.5}
0
5.139639355189075
True
play
YES
public
1645360952931
Em ✨
Like adding hover tooltips, or anchor tag linking them to the response. Resolving No if I don't see anything by Mar 20 N/A if free responses are discontinued Feb 24, 12:05pm: They did so in a way I did not expect! If you expand the answer it shows all the trades about it.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 25.000500000000002, "YES": 67.52124851296813}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1645733256129
100
hamnox
1645360952931
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
4
1715658079059
0
0.8794352548599277
0.5988070589293811
Jq3CwggVVRRysf4JNszS
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5988070589293811
will-dr-p-resolve-his-question-abou
223.30910288463247
{"NO": 53, "YES": 85.69089711536755}
Will Dr. P resolve his question about Trump being president?
1646024340000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 53, "YES": 85}
0
4.922028809628214
True
play
NO
public
1645361892157
Duncn
Is Dr. P still around? If the question does not resolve or the site admins have to resolve it, this resolves NO. If it resolves in a timely fashion with no indication of intervention, this will resolve YES. This market will quite possibly be informed by information on the Market Resolution discord channel, as that's w...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 87.84716090657363, "YES": 107.32343008921332}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646343478422
100
Duncn
1645361892157
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
10
1715657944240
0
1
1645379205746
0.5988070589293811
0.03171450717795847
o3uZiSaETgAXGOBLJ6b3
{"NO": 90.92004702622596, "YES": 280.54202533817744}
0
will-reuters-be-using-turkiye-to-re
511.81617784371974
{"NO": 63, "YES": 3}
Will Reuters be using Türkiye to refer to Turkey by the end of April?
1651335120000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 63, "YES": 3}
0
10.15365927343993
True
play
NO
public
1645364728372
Duncn
Will Reuters be using Türkiye or Turkiye preferentially to Turkey in its releases by April 30th, 2022? Close date updated to 2022-02-22 4:53 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-30 12:12 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 65.38444769897502, "YES": 9.000333332716073}
{"creatorFee": 0.9785770759893719, "platformFee": 0.163096179331562, "liquidityFee": 0.9785770759893719}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1651365041038
100.93368859876321
Duncn
1645364728372
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
12
1650314756590
0
1
[{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}]
["turkey"]
1650401300047
0.010503415960561835
0.0558931731391971
Cl0sqz4Bx1ikJdiZogxK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.0558931731391971
will-russia-invade-ukraine-in-march
29
{"NO": 24.3, "YES": 4.699999999999999}
Will Russia invade Ukraine in March but NOT before the end of February?
1645495380000
bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 24.3, "YES": 4.699999999999999}
0
5.606465955962463
True
play
NO
public
1645364843574
Patrick Delaney
Tailing off of this market: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t As of authoring this, there is only one week in February left with an implied 40% chance on the above market of an invasion occurring, whereas there are about four weeks in March left. Using a naive approach, zooming out an...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 28.178867978149867, "YES": 6.856340165861084}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045}
0
1645707034924
100
PatrickDelaney
1645364843574
0
https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a
4
1715657768305
0
1
0.0558931731391971
0.5000000000000001
xsqLzUyDCeaUgRfMxiar
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5000000000000001
donate-to-me-whales-prize-to-bigges
100
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
Donate to me, whales. Prize to biggest donor.
1645707540000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645364855575
Undox
This market will resolve such as to make me a profit. Biggest donor wins prize. The prize is to place a trade on the market of their choice using up to half the profit i make from this market, with a comment (not inappropriate) of their choice. This means you need to comment with your trade to be in the running.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645379718773
100
Undox
1645364855575
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
1
1715658926576
0
0.5000000000000001
PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS
what-will-the-second-place-answer-o
185
What will the second place answer on the manifold features free response question be?
1645556400000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.051081261643076
True
play
eb371362fe22
public
1645367555172
Em ✨
https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645603436406
380
hamnox
1645367555172
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
4
0
ANYONE
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1
1645531972849
{"eb371362fe22": 100}
True
0.29117059642370585
fIU6clh5WFXEzqsrGqfQ
{"NO": 34.12513908487494, "YES": 665.1128405762274}
0
will-manifold-markets-implement-a-d-42f10c4e90b1
4525.247616213964
{"NO": 15, "YES": 25}
Will Manifold Markets implement a default market resolution mechanism to be triggered a set time after market close.
1672560000000
UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 15, "YES": 25}
0
4.840104712601096
True
play
NO
public
1645376466164
Tamuz Hod
In order to solve the issue of market makers abandoning their markets Manifold should force a resolution some time after close day. Will resolve if this feature is implemented.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 21.213910542377615, "YES": 33.91238712476608}
{"creatorFee": 4.661715223900559, "platformFee": 0.4099624294098213, "liquidityFee": 2.4597745764589276}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1673206704146
142.45977457645893
TamuzHod
1673155980823
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c
15
1650314698975
0
2
16
[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557903}]
["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
1672556978854
1673155976804
0.02
0.9545370857171576
gaaHmRRxYPiqqi9v3Few
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9545370857171576
should-manifold-markets-implement-a
34.834488544369016
{"NO": 5.165511455630984, "YES": 28}
Should Manifold Markets implement a default market resolution mechanism to be triggered a set time after market close.
1648796340000
UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 28}
0
5.525455694257494
True
play
MKT
public
1645376599700
Tamuz Hod
In order to solve the issue of market makers abandoning their markets Manifold should force a resolution some time after close day. Will resolve PROB.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 32.40381893599119}
{"creatorFee": 0.1929740334654217, "platformFee": 0.04824350836635542, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1648826542638
100
TamuzHod
1645376599700
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c
6
1715658526092
0
1
1645378740737
0.9545370857171576
0.7465639744152252
huQh7GDCoRuVdJsRo8N5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7465639744152252
will-will-smith-win-best-actor-at-t
247
{"NO": 79.5, "YES": 137.5}
Will Will Smith win best actor at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648357140000
UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.5, "YES": 137.5}
0
4.822040373268772
True
play
YES
public
1645379892917
CompmanJX3
This market resolves to YES if Will Smith wins best actor at the 2022 Academy Awards on March 27th.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.24357647134224, "YES": 187.4973999839731}
{"creatorFee": 3.180000000000001, "platformFee": 0.7950000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1648437125055
100
CompmanJX3
1645379892917
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c
10
1715658553633
0
1
0.7465639744152252
0.9497606661476818
wS6yuzVYvjCXE4KYWAx5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9497606661476818
will-the-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-aliv
35706.476060737936
{"NO": 836, "YES": 10378.47134427243}
Will the Queen Elizabeth II be alive at the end of March 2022?
1648591140000
l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 836, "YES": 10445}
0
4.619568933698546
True
play
YES
public
1645381586996
Christopher Chubb
This market resolves to Yes if the Queen is alive at the end of March 2022. Feb 21, 5:33am: If there is any ambiguity of timing, I will go by when it is first reported on the BBC homepage. Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2513.6266974147597, "YES": 10929.138611368002}
{"creatorFee": 33.527968742564916, "platformFee": 8.381992185641229, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1648767826721
100
ChristopherChubb
1645381586996
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzbts9F6ndUlv-5QEunxgzDUJsssR2C8J5AK-fy=s96-c
51
1715658878580
0
1
1648569810557
0.9497606661476818
dGFPFtXkh6s6qNdCAfQa
how-public-will-manifold-trader-ide
1314.5111023271888
How public will Manifold trader identities be in a month?
1647413940000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.672149232417448
True
play
5ae04830ba9e
public
1645383381129
Austin
Question resolves based on the state of trader identies by the end of Mar 20
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 8.250581767333786, "platformFee": 2.0626454418334466, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1650831799639
820
Austin
1645383381129
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
21
0
ANYONE
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1
1645434251871
{"5ae04830ba9e": 100}
True
BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo
who-will-win-best-actor-at-the-2022
21
Who will win Best Actor at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648437112256
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.8167650314076065
True
play
211419f95062
public
1645384272042
David Glidden
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.44, "platformFee": 0.11, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648437112256
260
dglid
1645384272042
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1091b04a4a3e", "prob": 0.22675736961451246, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.284640042208522, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 72.58062254393109, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo", "createdTime": 1645384272239, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
{"211419f95062": 100}
True
wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ
who-will-win-best-supporting-actor
76
Who will win Best Supporting Actor at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648430487295
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.267739698591805
True
play
a9ef76d25803
public
1645384343667
David Glidden
Feb 20, 2:23pm: In the event of duplicate answers, will resolve to the earliest created instance of the answer. Feb 20, 2:23pm: oh actually looks like I can now select multiple and it will auto-resolve to the corresponding distribution. I’ll plan on doing that!
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.1525798475317937, "platformFee": 0.2881449618829484, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648430487295
300
dglid
1645384343667
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "7a88cd107b1f", "prob": 0.034530386740331494, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9142414228773545, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.562190183650827, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ", "createdTime": 1645384343976, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
1645386316072
{"a9ef76d25803": 100}
True
HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9
who-will-win-best-actress-at-the-20
692.4722253968254
Who will win Best Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648435800000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.9167379035265135
True
play
a4a6cde8eb7d
public
1645384383687
David Glidden
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.461110984126986, "platformFee": 1.1152777460317465, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648465356761
460.0000000000001
dglid
1645384383687
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
6
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "eeb07afff139", "prob": 0.00499248357032299, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03772163507828373, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.517963736129321, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1645384383840, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
{"a4a6cde8eb7d": 100}
True
M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu
who-will-win-best-supporting-actres
48
Who will win Best Supporting Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648428126464
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.419168393434646
True
play
ba55fbd87eb6
public
1645384424327
David Glidden
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4, "platformFee": 0.1, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648428126464
340
dglid
1645384424327
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "fd45675d690d", "prob": 0.0625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.721325931647741, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.819888974716115, "textFts": "", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1645384424499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0},...
{"ba55fbd87eb6": 100}
True
b48jrMMTSSXFsY6a39do
who-will-win-best-director-at-the-2
20
Who will win Best Director at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648437043031
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.850308340515122
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645384787718
David Glidden
Mar 28, 7:03am: no bets. Resolving N/A
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648437043031
240
dglid
1645384787718
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c81e230b756d", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "b48jrMMTSSXFsY6a39do", "createdTime": 1645384787966, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
True
R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt
which-film-will-win-best-original-s
37
Which film will win Best Original Screenplay at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648432834871
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.507655660841987
True
play
16bebc0ca68d
public
1645384876317
David Glidden
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.5276256797823007, "platformFee": 0.13190641994557517, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648432834871
320
dglid
1645384876317
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1503793e9c90", "prob": 0.0855431993156544, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.6628967078240486, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.15636580663907, "textFts": "", "contractId": "R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt", "createdTime": 1645384876482, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
{"16bebc0ca68d": 100}
True
jwfuQRPh9ZHG3GtAd2M9
which-film-will-win-best-adapted-sc
30
Which film will win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648433066631
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
6.36638862471458
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645384913635
David Glidden
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648433066631
240
dglid
1645384913635
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2f7920120ff5", "prob": 0.9999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jwfuQRPh9ZHG3GtAd2M9", "createdTime": 1645384913812, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedT...
True
wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q
which-film-will-win-best-cinematogr
55.50510257216823
Which film will win Best Cinematography at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648427876147
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.362394602864812
True
play
46733081f583
public
1645384955808
David Glidden
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.579795897113271, "platformFee": 0.14494897427831774, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1648427876147
280
dglid
1645384955808
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6a50e5866c74", "prob": 0.050510257216821904, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0193254570618357, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.959197091212204, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q", "createdTime": 1645384955977, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
{"46733081f583": 100}
True
0.7319948535010529
ZunnDUzIwjB5yvAZHKfy
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7319948535010529
will-this-markets-probability-be-in
450.00000000000006
{"NO": 44.522654653310326, "YES": 27.47734534668966}
Will this market's probability be in 1st and 3rd quartiles for most of this market's duration?
1645905540000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 26, "YES": 46}
0
5.139639355189074
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645385337424
Jenny
I have two timers: a YES timer and a NO timer. Both start at 0. At any given moment, one of the timers is counting up, depending on the market's probability (rounded to the nearest integer): - From 0% to 24%, the YES timer is running - From 25% to 49%, the NO timer is running - From 50% to 74%, the YES timer is running...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 36.756659267403506, "YES": 61.91196976756594}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645502809575
100
Jenny
1645385337424
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
4
1715658350250
0
1645502790296
0.7319948535010529
EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x
which-month-of-2022-will-russia-inv
570.1795623617649
Which month of 2022 will Russia invade Ukraine?
1672549140000
pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.712223751705949
True
play
15d1440eb8cf
public
1645387186477
Pepe
Must be a whole calendar month, e.g. March 2022. Time will be in Ukraine local time (EET). In the case of ambiguity I will go with the majority opinion of other forecasting and prediction sites.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645703555380
480.00000000000006
Pepe
1645387186477
0
https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b
7
0
ANYONE
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478495}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226581}]
["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1645588353379
False
{"15d1440eb8cf": 100}
True
0.719618351583498
03AaOQyNzjhqolfhlFdR
{"NO": 188.11554176497052, "YES": 127.4823609557555}
0.7911130443860277
if-i-review-vaclav-havels-the-power
1476.099000158733
{"NO": 233.82696732795483, "YES": 453.87203951866735}
If I review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless", will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 241, "YES": 456}
0
2.6577847610666927
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645399881617
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Power of the Powerless" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I do...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 383.24597434497497, "YES": 571.011228055294}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
0
1677617115140
141.44206479035563
ScottAlexander
1698430502522
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c
38
1650313765968
0
1
35
[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029305}]
["acx"]
1676661233314
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if-i-review-one-of-rene-girards-boo
1929.551566258302
{"NO": 290.963751058488, "YES": 586.3598247648445}
If I review one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire, will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 337, "YES": 586}
0
3.249365206614119
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CANCEL
public
1645400144107
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 1...
BINARY
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0
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1677617086674
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ScottAlexander
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0
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1645482187967
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0.834497438532657
if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-searc
1521.201210024017
{"NO": 261.1431043929484, "YES": 499}
If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 282, "YES": 499}
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2.582527055622999
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CANCEL
public
1645400259481
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 481.5580597180842, "YES": 588.1504013123783}
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{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
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1677617076002
140.63453189632878
ScottAlexander
1674541596630
0
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1650314753902
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0.41646898654277253
if-i-review-edward-teachs-penelopes
3988.963218029415
{"NO": 358.5326043129062, "YES": 724.6664792637614}
If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 529, "YES": 654}
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CANCEL
public
1645400339379
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. I...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 793.0329680973696, "YES": 737.8489903572253}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
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1677617109068
141.63966618150812
ScottAlexander
1677565652932
0
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1650314548100
0
1
50
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1677565652821
1677565210815
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if-i-review-joseph-stiglitzs-whithe
1305.6564973188963
{"NO": 311.79498082865865, "YES": 526.733776521646}
If I review Joseph Stiglitz's "Whither Socialism", will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 311, "YES": 531}
0
3.5396273153716287
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645400422932
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Whither Socialism" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't revie...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 511.06105481492517, "YES": 664.7922624500201}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
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1677617101323
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ScottAlexander
1671747981730
0
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1650314586031
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if-i-review-rick-perlsteins-nixonla
3425.5354897279317
{"NO": 461.41414344853547, "YES": 1589.8643573960205}
If I review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland", will it get at least 125 likes?
1677571140000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 554, "YES": 1589}
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3.598998416701782
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play
CANCEL
public
1645400485300
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Nixonland" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this b...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1138.4459830208712, "YES": 1706.3669987223532}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
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1677617094341
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ScottAlexander
1673513148914
0
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48
1650314633174
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["acx"]
1673513148754
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-david-do-1830-or-more-pushups
1159.609762217524
{"NO": 302.35880756434364, "YES": 120.03143021813243}
Will David do 1,830 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 27th?
1646024340000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 330, "YES": 125}
0
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1645401786224
David Glidden
I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Sunday, February 20th, I had done 1,582 push-ups. How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 27th? Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row for this date on the below spreads...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 397.3721979802908, "YES": 143.21205964486663}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
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1646049158143
100
dglid
1645401786224
0
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1715658307930
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0.11495540093158597
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{"NO": 82.00594244445738, "YES": 116.83774791608745}
1
if-i-review-bruce-finks-a-clinical
6399.280379586343
{"NO": 901.7917155163509, "YES": 3273.6527617046086}
If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?
1651042740000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1057, "YES": 3280}
0
3.42386224449254
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play
YES
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1645401866903
Scott Alexander
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2144.3823948195077, "YES": 3582.7320689709827}
{"creatorFee": 3.6839622515758013, "platformFee": 0.6543067148278423, "liquidityFee": 3.200206176793297}
{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}
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1651105502068
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ScottAlexander
1645401866903
0
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56
1650314573684
0
1
1651025537060
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0.6
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6
this-question-measures-sentiment-to
100
{"NO": 40, "YES": 60}
This question measures sentiment towards Peregrine Journal's 21 Feb Substack comment about self-grading comments.
1646063940000
tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 60}
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5.018922567828004
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MKT
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1645410050184
p_journal
This market will pay out at its PROB in one week. Please vote in accordance with your sentiment towards the original comment. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-212/comment/5177849 Feb 23, 11:06pm: CLOSING due to lack of interest.
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{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
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1645628822326
100
p_journal
1645410050184
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.30330559992184786
will-scott-alexander-fill-in-his-pr
162.98102684534257
{"NO": 89, "YES": 46.01897315465742}
Will Scott Alexander fill in his profile page in next 48 hours
1645521360000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 89, "YES": 50}
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4.929164032272945
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NO
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1645410892379
Undox
If his profile https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander updates his profile page to mention or link to ACX (Astral Codex Ten) or links to his socials. Whether this profile is owned by the real Scott Alexander is immaterial. I am assuming it is! Now the edge cases. I will check soon after the market closes. If he has fi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 112.69877026527364, "YES": 74.35980319621267}
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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
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1645587497071
100
Undox
1645410892379
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
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1715657831547
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 99.99999999999996}
1
will-winamp-actually-return-in-2022
126.00000000000004
{"NO": 108, "YES": 18}
Will Winamp actually return in 2022?
1672552740000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 108, "YES": 18}
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6.576162833253579
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1645411085253
The Land Of Random
This market will be resolved to YES if Winamp actually releases access to a new product in 2022. The current owners of Winamp.com currently say that they are reimagining the product for a new generation. However - there's been announcements like this in the past . . . . It does look like they may be more serious this...
BINARY
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{"NO": 118.21681775800769, "YES": 43.60087155287152}
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{"NO": 0.0009110433579144299, "YES": 0.0004123105625617661}
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1698554386203
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TheLandOfRandom
1698554382331
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how-will-this-market-resolve
50
How will this market resolve?
1646197140000
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cpmm-multi-1
0
5.303304908059076
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CANCEL
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1645427567030
Jenny
Do NOT add custom responses, they will be ignored. Only answers #1, #2, and #3 are valid. If none of the answers are correct, the market resolves NONE. Yes, you heard that right. Not N/A. NONE! I promise not to trade in this market in the last 12 hours before it closes.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1645427813894
280
Jenny
1645427567030
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
1
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ANYONE
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1645427809557
True
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{"NO": 4643.256992671397, "YES": 7044.074935408039}
Private question #1
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 4907, "YES": 7042}
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2.820722634824804
True
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NO
public
1645428828981
Mike Blume
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MichaelBlume
1654145458394
0
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2036.3005128076354
{"NO": 547.281545783187, "YES": 570.4179414091776}
Manifold will allow me to sort my trades by end date by March 20th
1647845940000
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 566, "YES": 566}
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4.658864351206866
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1645429052335
Mike Blume
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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1647882520041
100
MichaelBlume
1645429052335
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
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1715657836655
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1647831654747
0.7170525119793942
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0.24086425687366403
will-feb-29-be-one-of-the-two-most
3392.91419257647
{"NO": 1943.4964375085322, "YES": 123.58936991499749}
Will Feb 29 be one of the two most likely days for the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
1645761540000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1945, "YES": 125}
0
4.639015525090167
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NO
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1645430650700
Jenny
This market resolves after https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine closes. This market resolves YES if answer #14 ("Feb 29") is in the first or second position. Oh, and one last rule: Do NOT mention this market in the other market's comments! If someone asks you why you voted for a non-exi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 2053.3309970720356, "YES": 238.0749585478524}
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{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
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1645759021276
100
Jenny
1645430650700
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
15
1715658367460
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0.24086425687366403
0.7433234761120198
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7433234761120198
will-there-emerge-a-new-covid-varia
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{"NO": 52.12273986598932, "YES": 94}
Will there emerge a new COVID variant in the spring of 2022 ?
1648038603992
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 52, "YES": 94}
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4.908542756707937
True
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YES
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1645431900519
Robertas Strumila
This market resolves to YES if there will be a new COVID variant confirmed by WHO before May 31 2022. Feb 21, 4:23pm: Clarification: named variant by WHO, last one was omicron, so the next one
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 74.031040516556, "YES": 125.98234952746103}
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1648038603992
100
RobertasStrumila
1645431900519
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c
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1715658305215
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1645438054599
0.7433234761120198
0.8473211306555481
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{"NO": 3005.028197278716, "YES": 206.2424207551213}
1
will-lula-da-silva-win-the-2022-pre
16493.078756883886
{"NO": 85.74516565615312, "YES": 195.88825547104153}
Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 presidential elections in Brazil?
1667223611338
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 92.5, "YES": 198.5}
0
2.6278908985331815
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YES
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1645436612619
Zhao Nan
This market resolves YES if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the presidential election in Brazil, scheduled for Oct 2nd, 2022 (1st round) and Oct 30th, 2022 (2nd round). The market resolves NO if Lula withdraws his candidacy, (inclusive-)or if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves N/A if the election i...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 151.53212857173835, "YES": 237.3941051799058}
{"creatorFee": 18.024218846862432, "platformFee": 0.03654414610900972, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1667223611338
380
ZhaoNan
1667219826317
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
50
1650314786337
0
48
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508225}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}]
["politics-default", "global-macro"]
1667219824965
1663606376856
0.9877841859534943
0.08966294245165055
pnDqs1bzLDIFSkIxYhwS
{"NO": 982.8143741230184, "YES": 15523.530549968482}
0
will-brazil-win-the-fifa-world-cup
50398.919912206
{"NO": 73, "YES": 7.285129506468053}
Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup 2022?
1670832083818
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73, "YES": 7}
0
1.0877516645447733
True
basic
NO
public
1645437061845
Zhao Nan
This market resolves YES if Brazil wins the FIFA World CUP, which will be held in Qatar from Nov 21st to Dec 18th. The market will be resolved as soon as Brazil is eliminated from the competition, or immediately after the final is over.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 76.88112949874947, "YES": 23.133406971863703}
{"creatorFee": 3.4350351572231936, "platformFee": 0.06510505411703686, "liquidityFee": 0.3906303247022212}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1670832083818
1380.3906303247022
ZhaoNan
1670821866575
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
0
99
1650314767690
0
76
[{"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-09", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZgsJJPP", "createdTime": 1670503603284}, {"name": "Brazil vs South Korea 2022-12-05", "slug": "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "gr...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "please-resolve"]
1670821866478
1670704809801
0.01
0.1773331734717102
dTqYscag1tkoo1PaG01r
{"NO": 366.40301816819044, "YES": 5013.425441697127}
0
will-all-nuclear-power-plants-in-ge
14074.747161052981
{"NO": 472.17215488165823, "YES": 848.6925459063971}
Will all nuclear power plants in Germany be shut down in 2022?
1672527540000
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 443, "YES": 850}
0
1.3848145016220887
True
play
NO
public
1645437763930
Zhao Nan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Germany is planning to phase out nuclear energy completely this year. However, there are concerns about energy prices and network stability. This market resolves to YES if no nuclear power plants are running by Dec 31st, 2022, and if there are no c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 768.8916431992456, "YES": 1074.0073745262102}
{"creatorFee": 35.8126573390567, "platformFee": 0.70108204544544, "liquidityFee": 4.058671612014887}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1672592481687
644.0586716120149
ZhaoNan
1672415690534
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
139
1650314682005
0
1
121
[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016684172}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406875}, {"...
["economics-default", "stefans-group", "global-macro", "nuclear"]
1672415690337
1666042527415
False
0.02
0.2335592606545372
N9FIySBGiX6xP9jf0pQA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2335592606545372
will-test-positive-for-covid-in-the
113.34776001214534
{"NO": 77.5, "YES": 27.152239987854657}
Will test positive for covid in the next 7 days? (more info inside)
1646002740000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 77.5, "YES": 26.5}
0
5.004115075773155
True
play
NO
public
1645438050100
jskf
On Saturday I spent most of the day inside with three people, one of whom felt sick today and just got a positive antigen test. Both of us are vaccinated and boosted. If I develop symptoms I'll do an antigen test, and if that's positive a PCR test. For unrelated reasons, if I *don't* have symptoms I will be tested on T...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 91.62035472547177, "YES": 50.576785583251734}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1646315311456
100
jskf
1645438050100
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
9
1715658039438
0
1
0.2335592606545372
0.8598221998627896
1INEwJ5mpQdNq7RRjN7f
{"NO": 228.43014089671192, "YES": 90.91799307023535}
1
will-manifold-markets-let-users-sel
364.554046971541
{"NO": 25, "YES": 69.98754692174846}
Will Manifold Markets let users sell a portion of their shares in a market before 1 July 2022
1650446633780
mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 25, "YES": 72}
0
5.7147539779101475
True
play
YES
public
1645444415834
Jordan Berman
When a trader makes an individual purchase on Manifold (e.g., 50 shares of "yes"), they have the option to sell the entire individual trade (all 50 shares). This market will resolve to "yes" if Manifold introduces the functionality to sell a portion of those shares (e.g., 1, 2, 3, ... of the same hypothetical 50 share...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 88.16333731095489}
{"creatorFee": 1.7026539300807668, "platformFee": 0.28472063558628413, "liquidityFee": 1.6913141632068909}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1650446633780
101.6386169712931
smingers
1645444415834
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c
10
1650313771774
0
1650435161486
0.9390655457748978
0.06173033059219094
FcmEV1TjQVfS8aeLgE3A
{"NO": 163.75321756887138, "YES": 727.189107519061}
0
will-a-general-covid19-vaccine-mand
903.8108924809385
{"NO": 107.5, "YES": 17.5}
Will a general Covid-19 vaccine mandate in Germany come into effect in 2022?
1672527540000
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 107.5, "YES": 17.5}
0
7.858866141702533
True
play
NO
public
1645448773522
Zhao Nan
Germany's government originally (~Nov 2021) intended to make COVID-19 vaccination mandatory. However, there has been disagreement recently. This market resolves YES if a general vaccine mandate for everybody above the age of 18 is in effect on Dec 31, 2022, or has been in effect for at least one month of the year 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 120.3129876644662, "YES": 33.91216596223249}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1672592459957
180
ZhaoNan
1672233574072
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
1
9
1650313870551
0
1
9
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}]
["medicine"]
1672233573817
1649313525210
0.01
0.20000000000000007
ntipFH5KvvWcY6SAIvNJ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.20000000000000007
will-the-2022-golden-raspberry-for
25
{"NO": 20, "YES": 5}
Will the 2022 Golden Raspberry for the Worst Screen Combo go to Jared Leto & either his 17-pound latex face, his geeky clothes or his ridiculous accent?
1648335540000
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 20, "YES": 5}
0
5.700548750959896
True
play
NO
public
1645456013636
Zhao Nan
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Golden_Raspberry_Awards#Nominees Market will resolve on or shortly after Mar 26th.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 22.361574202188894, "YES": 11.180787101094449}
{"creatorFee": 0.2, "platformFee": 0.05, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1648451628224
100
ZhaoNan
1645456013636
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
3
1715658667108
0
1
0.20000000000000007
0.8689230966185275
RT1JOYWHEFwT8aS25ziI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8689230966185275
will-the-2022-golden-raspberry-for-1f8abeb7fae8
78.94128133291758
{"NO": 12.05871866708241, "YES": 25}
Will the 2022 Golden Raspberry for the Worst Picture go to "Diana" (the Musical)?
1648335540000
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 12, "YES": 25}
0
5.461509412375399
True
play
YES
public
1645456277132
Zhao Nan
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Golden_Raspberry_Awards#Nominees Market will resolve on or shortly after Mar 26th.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 13.417302292189735, "YES": 34.54560387203119}
{"creatorFee": 0.4823487466832963, "platformFee": 0.12058718667082408, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1648451557280
100
ZhaoNan
1645456277132
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
5
1715658171168
0
1
0.8689230966185275
0.006515446651349119
RYeZaHKhfPTwNbr0Q0y1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.006515446651349119
will-sergey-lavrov-and-antony-blink
1097.0110725545715
{"NO": 800.4889274454284, "YES": 42.5}
Will Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in February 2022?
1646089140000
5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 800.5, "YES": 42.5}
0
4.672707617698661
True
play
NO
public
1645460572223
Zhao Nan
Antony Blinken, Secretary of State for the United States of America, recently announced that he accepted an invitation for a meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation. This is a market on whether Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in person by February 28, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). This ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 840.2392116379112, "YES": 68.04472794089193}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664}
0
1646123971828
100
ZhaoNan
1645460572223
0
https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e
10
1715658172700
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486733}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226662}]
["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
False
0.006515446651349119
7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq
what-rotten-tomatoes-status-will-th
2795.8340923211254
What Rotten Tomatoes status will "The Batman" have one week after release?
1647005475869
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.641637902367651
True
play
56836ed299f6
public
1645460588749
David Glidden
This market will resolve to "Certified Fresh", "Fresh", or "Rotten" around 8:30am ET Friday, March 11th, 2022 when I check https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_batman. Market closes 15 minutes prior. The Batman is set to release Friday, March 4, 2022. For an overview of how Rotten Tomatoes calculates a movie's status,...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1647005475869
660
dglid
1645460588749
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
17
0
ANYONE
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[{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860962038}]
["media-rating-futures"]
{"56836ed299f6": 100}
True
0.9907515793180249
RZSzbIomMFD6sB0pXQWx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9907515793180249
will-the-batman-make-125-million-or
453.31619725712926
{"NO": 26.288705476333234, "YES": 362.3950972665375}
Will "The Batman" make $125 million or more on opening weekend?
1646629140000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 22, "YES": 364}
0
4.7359865021779655
True
play
YES
public
1645461941688
David Glidden
This market resolves to "Yes" if "The Batman" makes $125 million or more in its opening weekend per the "Domestic Opening" value expected to appear on its Box Office Mojo page: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1877830. Market closes midnight Eastern Monday night but I expect to resolve Monday or Tuesday depending ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 37.37931587210077, "YES": 386.8832674440678}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646654206664
100
dglid
1645461941688
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
13
1715658174657
0
1
0.9907515793180249
0.49999999999999994
QdvnoM0XB07ZqH3j3t7w
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.49999999999999994
will-mondays-feb-21-xkcd-have-more
245.909218527858
{"NO": 218, "YES": 26.09078147214199}
Will Monday's (Feb 21) xkcd have more than one panel?
1645505940000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 218, "YES": 26}
0
4.801120500417426
True
play
NO
public
1645462592811
Jenny
This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2022-02-21 has more than one panel. Feb 21, 11:57am: (continuing where @charlie left off)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 241.41613158477375, "YES": 36.04232502055221}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645501330992
100
Jenny
1645462592811
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
5
1715658151562
0
0.49999999999999994
0.652776620379051
wpBjyMk9YlOU9F0UpnwF
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.652776620379051
will-my-husband-be-able-to-book-che
120
{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}
Will my husband be able to book cheap accommodation in Whistler for my youngest's last freeride comp?
1646121540000
MhJVlvBQ0AdCNhHOe9Jaacysh9u2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}
0
3.05810159792889
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645462815555
Wendy Kelly
It is possible to find accommodation for under $100/night in Whistler from March 16 - March 20. This is my first wager — a little tongue in cheek but I have also been surprised at the difficulty. Speaks to a lot about what is going on in British Columbia tourism/real estate. Yes, the accommodation price per night is ab...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1700930692434
100
WendyKelly
1680902608821
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjifYIsy7Abm_wnDjwQQozM7tvHHMPis5u2CRUlqA=s96-c
2
1650314814120
0
1
3
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779596777}]
["please-resolve"]
1680902606375
0.65
dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq
how-will-russia-perform-in-eurovisi
130
How will Russia perform in Eurovision 2022?
1652565540000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.988398938453523
True
play
6380821a150e
public
1645475268707
David Glidden
Specifically, in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contents Final. Only ordinal numbers (i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3rd) will be considered as permitted answers except "Will not participate in the Final" or similar. Russia placed 9th in 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2021#Final Feb 21, 4:42pm: Inspired by thi...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645877852365
340
dglid
1645475268707
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "0b72001b609e", "prob": 0.008264462809917357, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.10562142982193291, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.674571578631946, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq", "createdTime": 1645475268880, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
1645839548303
{"6380821a150e": 100}
True
h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY
what-book-should-i-read
209.50944415991168
What book should I read?
1646089140000
2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.869012934423752
True
play
55a99fbe2ef3
public
1645478529482
Arie Arie
Resolves to whatever book out of the suggestions I actually choose to read. May be fiction or nonfiction. I am very confident that nobody in this market has private information regarding my book prefrences.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1646141575689
700.0000000000002
ArieArie
1645478529482
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "06bbf1d73fbf", "prob": 0.3360006533078452, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.257537125561733, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.080265333512955, "textFts": "", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645478529615, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659016381694}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659016384408}]
["books", "recommendations"]
1646082854478
{"55a99fbe2ef3": 100}
True
0.004699214755243681
AR0kSxiOxeyVhGPrDhPl
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.004699214755243681
will-biden-give-a-formal-oval-offic
319.662772184893
{"NO": 201.1995029406143, "YES": 17.137724874492733}
Will Biden give a formal Oval Office address before the end of February?
1646110740000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 207.5, "YES": 9.5}
0
4.8208975608745295
True
play
NO
public
1645479677482
David Glidden
Resolves to Yes if Biden gives a formal address to the nation from the White House Oval Office before the end of February 2022. It does not have to be about Russia/Ukraine, but at time of writing likely would be (if it happens at all). Inspired by this tweet (limited access): https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/149...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 217.82461459897405, "YES": 14.967264287437438}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
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1646137294475
100
dglid
1645479677482
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
14
1715657705373
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475063}]
["politics-default"]
1646102681970
0.004699214755243681
DXN0Zg58N1wkCELsl2Nk
given-my-mal-page-what-anime-would
100
Given my MAL page, what Anime would I enjoy watching. ai f
1646089140000
2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.0189258735310585
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645480589784
Arie Arie
https://myanimelist.net/animelist/monkaap?status=7 I will try every suggestion (but no guarantees how long I will stick with it) This market will resolve as the one I enjoy the most. Ones listed as "Watching"are actually on hold. Submission can be any show listed on MyAnimeList.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1645480620001
220
ArieArie
1645480589784
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e27acceee336", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DXN0Zg58N1wkCELsl2Nk", "createdTime": 1645480590091, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...
True
JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v
given-my-mal-page-which-anime-would
233
Given My MAL Page. Which anime would I enjoy the most.
1648504740000
2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.809150562900114
True
play
ab09abeac0d2
public
1645480905305
Arie Arie
https://myanimelist.net/animelist/monkaap?status=7 Maybe be any show listed as an anime on Myanimelist that is not currently anywhere on my MAL list (including on my plan-to-watch). I will try (but may not finish) all suggestions and resolve to the one I enjoyed the most.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.92, "platformFee": 1.98, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1649361862410
380
ArieArie
1645480905305
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "79bbc5bf4996", "prob": 0.18419937740610437, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.503195923457389, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.517604425400435, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645480905508, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
{"ab09abeac0d2": 100}
True
0.35240839587175304
DgJF73pnRn5lBaCmtDnS
{"NO": 34.27990073767387, "YES": 729.4662877042008}
0
trump-launched-his-social-media-pla
878.2773274583242
{"NO": 143.72267254167576, "YES": 95}
Trump launched his social media platform Trump Social today (https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/tech/trump-truth-social-app-store/index.html), will it get removed from the app store?
1656993540000
w3y3yefIy7g1D1TxxZRHjG1BrDm1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 144, "YES": 95}
0
4.072769203346618
True
play
NO
public
1645482107694
Lars Erik Schonander
The market resolves to YES if the app get's removed from the app store (defined as Apple and Google's) The market resolves to NO if by the date past it does not get removed.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 192.07759325669724, "YES": 141.75750421229912}
{"creatorFee": 3.8249891168078887, "platformFee": 0.058255364201742876, "liquidityFee": 0.3495321852104572}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1680911063279
100.34953218521046
LarsErikSchonander
1680911059854
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjhyd4JlQ3ByXTEY5bYS5J5uSL87lCXZrJDqTheVw=s96-c
15
1650313856342
0
1
16
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477851}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664330891544}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-tr...
["politics-default", "please-resolve", "donald-trump"]
1656917289205
1680911057621
False
0.02
0.3027334387073808
ShUdolFvlZ7ul6gBBpnc
{"NO": 291.7871436647474, "YES": 5473.015459613775}
0
will-spacex-launch-a-starship-into
13700.208497312482
{"NO": 429.34973709003117, "YES": 882.5465794647826}
Will SpaceX Launch a Starship into orbit this year (2022).
1672550158710
wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 412.8, "YES": 883.2}
0
0.9994121128105786
True
play
NO
public
1645482249892
Samuel Millerick
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when a Starship enters orbit or by the end of the year. Apr 30, 9:36pm: For clarification a complete orbit is necessary. So the 3/4 orbital Starship orbital test flight as planned would not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 756.5641324132644, "YES": 1071.7673640904945}
{"creatorFee": 29.76678559753719, "platformFee": 0.8123947352756008, "liquidityFee": 4.845296184330937}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1672550158710
754.8452961843309
SamuelMillerick
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0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c
115
1650314599434
0
102
[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01...
["spacex", "space", "science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
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430cOr5w2kXxE1NCNSym
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4979191797527036
will-i-choose-to-resolve-this-marke
116
{"NO": 58, "YES": 58}
Will I choose to resolve this market as "YES"?
1646121540000
JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 58, "YES": 58}
0
4.972221975589825
True
play
YES
public
1645483302990
D. Kingsley
After this market closes, will I decide to resolve it as "YES" or "NO"? Feel free to contact me with thoughts or suggestions! Feb 21, 2:41pm: This market resolves as YES if I choose to resolve it as YES, and as NO if I choose not to resolve it as YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 82.19559599212113, "YES": 81.85423630148901}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
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1646155275222
100
DKingsley
1645483302990
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c
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1
0.4979191797527036
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7657902140647466
will-1-usd-be-worth-at-least-100-ru
4854.853965600619
{"NO": 1034.6674993305116, "YES": 1614.4785350688694}
Will 1 USD be worth at least 100 Russian rubles by March 1st 2022?
1646130070110
iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1030, "YES": 1591}
0
4.633815116744987
True
play
NO
public
1645483840001
JuJumper
According to the Russian Central Bank, as reported at https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/ Feb 28, 10:55pm: I believe fair interpretation of the original wordings would be CB rate published on March 1st 11.30 MSK for the March 2nd. Mar 1, 2:25pm: new rate was not published on time; waiting for it to resolve th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1615.599933371701, "YES": 2099.480141643733}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
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1646130070110
100
JuJumper
1645483840001
0
https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e
40
1715658822741
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509466}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576865}]
["politics-default", "economics-default"]
1646129854276
0.7657902140647466
0.25
QGV2dJfNy3K53YeS06o8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.25
will-hans-zimmer-win-best-score-at
25
{"NO": 18.75, "YES": 6.25}
Will Hans Zimmer win Best Score at the Academy Awards?Ent
1648428675821
I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 18.75, "YES": 6.25}
0
5.700548750959896
True
play
YES
public
1645484282322
ben truitt
Hans Zimmer wins the oscar
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 21.651501120014753, "YES": 12.5005}
{"creatorFee": 0.75, "platformFee": 0.1875, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
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1648428675821
100
bentruitt
1645484282322
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c
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{"NO": 119.04918118085132, "YES": 770.924783648633}
0
will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2
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{"NO": 1043.1722926825607, "YES": 1194.0512485599897}
Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?
1672559940000
QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1210, "YES": 1161}
0
3.516331298156795
True
play
NO
public
1645485093911
Gustavo Lacerda
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 1784.6319104058343, "YES": 1349.171075994131}
{"creatorFee": 19.724221120382232, "platformFee": 2.5077833224315653, "liquidityFee": 4.934515544392773}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
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184.9345155443928
GustavoLacerda
1674463887384
0
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[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670519793}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662315622754}, {"name": "Politic...
["politics-default", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]
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nd0ACNyuPatV7SKpMt8C
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.13219693830530632
will-richardngo-win-the-contest-for
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{"NO": 103, "YES": 20}
Will Richard_Ngo win the "Contest for outlining rules for this contest"?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 103, "YES": 20}
0
6.042030121658019
True
play
CANCEL
public
1645486205597
Data Generating Process
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zgXXxoKHDknAzCWPu/contest-for-outlining-rules-for-this-contest
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 114.58274739593219, "YES": 44.721806763591296}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
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1671492149123
100
datagenproc
1645486205597
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff9-7355abdcec6f
3
1650314754592
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