p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49999999999999994 | kbQd8Qa5z8Ij9owzbmzS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-the-fda-list-at-least-350-appr | 20 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | Will the FDA list at least 350 approvals for March 2022? | 1646110740000 | BjRgmIaYc1gU8oQ27b2dcIIBM9w2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0 | 5.8502737455136105 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645237730752 | orrukje | This market resolves to YES if there are at least 350 Approvals / Tentative Approvals listed for February 2022 on this webpage: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process.
The market closes at the time listed below, and will be resolved on March 2nd in order to allow time for reporting.
Feb 18, 9:32pm: resolved to NA due to typo in title :/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 14.14284273051214, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645237768261 | 100 | orrukje | 1645237730752 | 0 | 1 | 1715658601169 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532818}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574821}] | ["science-default", "economics-default"] | 0.49999999999999994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04103967753623497 | Eseu4h8HITsPM9SVLgGK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04103967753623497 | will-the-fda-list-at-least-350-appr-876f7c84f2f0 | 523.2741615119005 | {"NO": 110.45357064459725, "YES": 16.27226784350229} | Will the FDA list at least 350 approvals for February 2022? | 1646110740000 | BjRgmIaYc1gU8oQ27b2dcIIBM9w2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 15} | 0 | 4.946579379226845 | True | play | NO | public | 1645237934190 | orrukje | This market resolves to YES if there are at least 350 combined Approvals and Tentative Approvals listed for February 2022 on this webpage: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process. Otherwise it resolves to NO.
The market closes at the time listed below, and will be resolved on March 2nd in order to allow time for reporting. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 124.09918222483583, "YES": 25.67264233217638} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646226256020 | 100 | orrukje | 1645237934190 | 0 | 7 | 1715657828354 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525678}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567194}] | ["science-default", "economics-default"] | 1646100123261 | 0.04103967753623497 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7273010286489626 | cvASSE4oUurpO0nVwyC1 | {"NO": 618.0504612936338, "YES": 1123.984889970569} | 0.594573914807983 | will-altos-labs-trial-an-antiaging | 998.3029317549083 | {"NO": 107, "YES": 35.745432524280105} | Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030? | 1893473940000 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 107, "YES": 40} | 0 | 9.579973687492313 | False | basic | public | 1645242004587 | Natália 🔍 | This resolves to "YES" if this Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9592/altos-labs-trials-an-anti-aging-intervention/ resolves to a date before January 1st, 2030 UTC. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.36397805853437, "YES": 79.79042985576433} | {"creatorFee": 11.634390132992618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009327379053088815, "YES": 0.000360555127546399} | 0 | 1000 | Natalia | 1716867094325 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1650314675370 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530800}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1667926472196}] | ["science-default", "longevity"] | 1716867090895 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8347541361107852 | 9xzWk9kZb7nEb1z7gYBR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8347541361107852 | will-my-opt-application-get-approve | 270 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 195.99999999999997} | Will my OPT application get approved by June 13, 2022? | 1648564887620 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 196} | 0 | 4.799805057684986 | True | play | YES | public | 1645243913653 | Natália 🔍 | I'll apply for OPT, which is a type of temporary US work authorization for students on the F-1 visa, on March 1st.
Relevant data on OPT approvals can be found at https://opttimeline.com/IOE. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100.00050000000002, "YES": 224.75851930627678} | {"creatorFee": 1.9999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.4999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1648564887620 | 100 | Natalia | 1645243913653 | 0 | 5 | 1715657688471 | 0 | 1645823863819 | 0.8347541361107852 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012193670558197834 | 4ETRstU3mHx5IE4f6LxJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-pepe-still-be-1-on-top-creator | 1922.4771906729793 | {"NO": 1345.8025841219442, "YES": 65.72022520507664} | Will Pepe still be #1 on "Top Creators" in a few days? | 1646191800000 | rpPhNvA397UkhNUQsVFMQEKRtyV2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1349.5, "YES": 65.5} | 0 | 10.389577992156266 | True | play | NO | public | 1645244373992 | Robert McIntyre | Resolves to YES if I check and see that Pepe is #1 on the Top Creators leaderboard at market close.
(Currently, Pepe has only one market which has huge trades that appear and disappear, and it seems to me like it's unintended that this should result in becoming "Top Creator", so consider this a bug report as well.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1402.8915858358746, "YES": 155.86745230473306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1663706308041 | 100 | RLMgold | 1663706351794 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1zo00WvcSPmsrxKW9c-ekFTEYJFpwd1r7TrV=s96-c | 10 | 1650313792768 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779605598}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1663706350853 | 0.012193670558197834 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29326548224054577 | PBMTQSZqUlaWhfdV7A0Z | {"NO": 108.77634966156128, "YES": 88.81109254663365} | 1 | will-i-be-at-least-quite-happy-on-a | 763.4859344792703 | {"NO": 342.4209543966027, "YES": 129.43144507709056} | Will I be at least quite happy on August 3, 2022? | 1659585540000 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 344.5, "YES": 148.5} | 0 | 3.2903498683274846 | True | play | YES | public | 1645245087950 | Natália 🔍 | I have depression and am currently taking ketamine for it, though it hasn't helped much yet. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 397.403736217313, "YES": 254.3932016296842} | {"creatorFee": 4.439538769916679, "platformFee": 0.209347302537704, "liquidityFee": 1.2560838152262237} | {"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773} | 0 | 1666142485914 | 101.25608381522623 | Natalia | 1666142559904 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1650314567843 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ymezf2YMJ9aaILxT95uWJj7gnx83", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1665339540793}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1659533649930 | 1666142558145 | 0.33697712760442444 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5698410433729836 | 9elbOh1HcdwNm4szEJsl | {"NO": 52.87500644537084, "YES": 161.77500644537082} | 0 | in-west-virginia-v-environmental-pr | 158.12499355462916 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 69} | In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, will the U.S. Supreme Court allow the EPA to proceed with comprehensive carbon dioxide regulation against power plants? | 1656638635706 | 770w4pEdMIO2G9qDS92m7z8A2K23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 69} | 0 | 2.981972958740572 | True | play | NO | public | 1645248394319 | James Heaney | This market will resolve to "yes" if, in West Virginia v. EPA (2022), the Supreme Court affirms the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision in American Lung Association v. Environmental Protection Agency (2019), specifically: if the Supreme Court affirms that the EPA's authority under 42 U.S.C. § 7411(d) generally authorizes the carbon dioxide regulations contained in the Clean Power Plan, and that Congress was able to delegate that power to the EPA by statute.
This market will resolve to "no" if the Supreme Court reverses the D.C. Circuit's decision, specifically: if the Supreme Court rejects the EPA's authority under 42 U.S.C. § 7411(d) to issue comprehensive carbon dioxide regulations, and/or finds that Congress had no authority to delegate such power to the EPA in the first place.
If West Virginia v. EPA is decided on technical grounds, this market will resolve to "yes" if the Clean Power Plan could in principle go into effect as a consequence of the ruling.
This market will resolve to "N/A" if West Virginia v. EPA is dismissed as improvidently granted, held for rehearing, or is not decided by 15 July 2022.
The market will not be resolved before 1 July 2022 or after 20 July 2022.
Feb 19, 10:46am: SCOTUSBlog case coverage: https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/west-virginia-v-environmental-protection-agency/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.80167580708564, "YES": 83.79223114752347} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000565685424949238, "YES": 0.0008246211251235322} | 0 | 1656638635706 | 100 | JamesHeaney | 1656604647733 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxsbELA_-dEyhPG9Qv4OemMlC41DEik9uFvoTh6=s96-c | 2 | 1650313827482 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474184}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330763}] | ["politics-default", "scotus"] | 1656604646434 | 1645289344572 | 0.5698410433729836 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16465491459224763 | AKHr9UiCnIt9myD91Ziu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.16465491459224763 | will-the-sp-500-fall-at-least-3-on | 490.5217036614204 | {"NO": 295.0488224742548, "YES": 54.42947386432479} | Will the S&P 500 fall at least 3% on February 22, 2022? | 1645534800000 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 295, "YES": 54} | 0 | 4.74865930404065 | True | play | NO | public | 1645254460019 | Natália 🔍 | This question resolves to YES if the S&P 500 falls by at least 3.0% from opening to closing price on February 22, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 319.41434279055414, "YES": 141.81063496433268} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 1645563716337 | 100 | Natalia | 1645254460019 | 0 | 18 | 1715657699967 | 0 | 1 | 1645498061643 | 0.16465491459224763 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9410543102029416 | tAsV3l13NsuDAtctED0L | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9410543102029416 | will-this-market-paired-market-1-cl | 2156.430892305564 | {"NO": 295.4990234190684, "YES": 1322.0700842753672} | Will this market (Paired Market 1) close with an equal or higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 2)? | 1645862340000 | JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 297, "YES": 1326} | 0 | 4.645553703340585 | True | play | YES | public | 1645256968670 | D. Kingsley | This market (Paired Market 1) resolves to "YES" if, after its close, it has an equal or higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 2). Both markets close at the same time.
Feb 18, 11:52pm: This link is to Paired Market 2: https://manifold.markets/DKingsley/will-this-market-paired-market-2-cl
Feb 19, 10:29pm: These markets will use the probabilities rounded to the nearest integer % (as displayed by Manifold)
Feb 19, 10:30pm: (Just the default thing you see on the prediction page, nothing fancy) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 392.72553482548125, "YES": 1569.171662885431} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645892512218 | 100 | DKingsley | 1645256968670 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c | 17 | 1715658805336 | 0 | 1 | 1645328703315 | 0.9410543102029416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2372494193190942 | 2fobVb0MQIBipZjKk8E3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2372494193190942 | will-this-market-paired-market-2-cl | 3213.9472496374046 | {"NO": 1375.7427556856276, "YES": 814.3099946769676} | Will this market (Paired Market 2) close with a higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 1)? | 1645862340000 | JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1387, "YES": 816} | 0 | 4.637689196227097 | True | play | NO | public | 1645257026267 | D. Kingsley | This market (Paired Market 2) resolves to "YES" if, after its close, it has a higher probability than its pair (Paired Market 1). Both markets close at the same time.
Feb 18, 11:52pm: This link is to Paired Market 1: https://manifold.markets/DKingsley/will-this-market-paired-market-1-cl
Feb 19, 10:31pm: These markets will use the probabilities rounded to the nearest integer % (as displayed by Manifold) -- just the default thing you see on the prediction page, nothing fancy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1912.6964301671578, "YES": 1066.7369851575788} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645892489357 | 100 | DKingsley | 1645257026267 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c | 19 | 1715656924866 | 0 | 1 | 1645326917369 | 0.2372494193190942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yyBpf4FT8oDFSTq9pXWQ | who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii-in-202 | 20 | Who will win Super Bowl LVII in 2023? | 1676264340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.850308340515122 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645276636193 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII
Feb 19, 8:24am: resolving N/A and recreating with refined title here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645276715653 | 240 | dglid | 1645276636193 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "64625f982761", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yyBpf4FT8oDFSTq9pXWQ", "createdTime": 1645276636451, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.985", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645276715000, "totalLiquidity": 59.99999999999999, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6e54fbbf0ad4", "prob": 0.75, "text": "Los Angeles Rams", "index": 1, "poolNo": 103.92304845413263, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.64101615137755, "textFts": "'angel':2 'los':1 'ram':3", "contractId": "yyBpf4FT8oDFSTq9pXWQ", "createdTime": 1645276657394, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.985", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645276715000, "totalLiquidity": 60, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409825}] | ["sports-default"] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6dMinXYxX6tEQTLV8UGv | who-will-win-super-bowl-lvii | 102636.29696991852 | Who will win Super Bowl LVII in 2023? | 1676258124489 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615961401323885 | True | basic | c2d1347eb880 | public | 1645276833000 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scheduled for Sunday, February 12th, 2023. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 27, 10:14pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Who will win Super Bowl LVII?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Who will win Super Bowl LVII in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.30593149880654097, "platformFee": 0.07648287470163524, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676258124489 | 4439.999999999999 | dglid | 1678671490936 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 92 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "932a752d9a7f", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0049587117899355165, "userId": 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Market closes end of day January 6th, 2025 when electoral votes expected to be formally counted and the electoral result announced before a joint session of Congress.
Related:
Who will be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee?
https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-be-the-2024-democratic-pre
Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?
https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-be-the-2024-republican-pre
2024 US Presidential Election community and markets:
https://manifold.markets/fold/2024-us-presidential-election
https://manifold.markets/fold/2024-us-presidential-election/markets | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.018763850782506, "platformFee": 2.152027092750914, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2200 | dglid | 1719632562520 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 94 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a593c8e725f9", "prob": 0.023767355290096284, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.030314794911868337, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2451655663591366, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1645278657476, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0470923640121218, "week": 0.0470923640121218, "month": 0.010746073673317369}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T13:42:21.167", "probChangeDay": 0.0470923640121218, "probChangeWeek": 0.0470923640121218, "totalLiquidity": 0.19428571428571428, "probChangeMonth": 0.010746073673317369}, {"id": "7d02b7cbdffa", "prob": 0.5217152839294198, "text": "Republican", "index": 1, "poolNo": 900.3316679021085, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 825.3829040787074, "textFts": "'republican':1", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1645278662938, "probChanges": {"day": 0.000789517960877395, "week": 0.000789517960877395, "month": -0.0036004088743227802}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:07.922", "probChangeDay": 0.000789517960877395, "probChangeWeek": 0.000789517960877395, "totalLiquidity": 862.0431350501372, "probChangeMonth": -0.0036004088743227802}, {"id": "aed59aec8913", "prob": 0.437282414064197, "text": "Democratic", "index": 2, "poolNo": 664.8547031303935, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 855.5693563489043, "textFts": "'democrat':1", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1645278666135, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06803546512277642, "week": -0.06803546512277642, "month": -0.026940878754639075}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:07.922", "probChangeDay": -0.06803546512277642, "probChangeWeek": -0.06803546512277642, "totalLiquidity": 754.2077369152436, "probChangeMonth": -0.026940878754639075}, {"id": "9e9dfa9a957c", "prob": 0.007856617277455702, "text": "Other (Any candidate not running as a Democrat or Republican)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.01728906261402896, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.1832842889273962, "textFts": "'candid':3 'democrat':8 'republican':10 'run':5", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1645498894039, "probChanges": {"day": 0.011491334572952368, "week": 0.011491334572952368, "month": 0.011491334572952368}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:43:52.062", "probChangeDay": 0.011491334572952368, "probChangeWeek": 0.011491334572952368, "totalLiquidity": 0.19428571428571428, "probChangeMonth": 0.011491334572952368}, {"id": "e6f0adad71ab", "prob": 0.009375509080682952, "text": "Libertarian", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.3018870922911224, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.89765425454864, "textFts": "'libertarian':1", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1646195593408, "probChanges": {"day": 0.008658351265620659, "week": 0.008658351265620659, "month": 0.008297141576479547}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T15:21:25.169", "probChangeDay": 0.008658351265620659, "probChangeWeek": 0.008658351265620659, "totalLiquidity": 3.1031419712649284, "probChangeMonth": 0.008297141576479547}, {"id": "f1f1db133960", "prob": 8.032568544948781e-07, "text": "Green", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0002458275671983756, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 306.038309365295, "textFts": "'green':1", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1646195597825, "probChanges": {"day": 7.759737991839709e-08, "week": 7.759737991839709e-08, "month": 7.759737991839709e-08}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-30T23:22:00.41", "probChangeDay": 7.759737991839709e-08, "probChangeWeek": 7.759737991839709e-08, "totalLiquidity": 0.2742857142857143, "probChangeMonth": 7.759737991839709e-08}, {"id": "8fa1233140bc", "prob": 2.023430318305032e-06, "text": "Other (Not Democratic, Republican, Green, or Libertarian)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.0007315584425384714, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 361.5429479645946, "textFts": "'democrat':3 'green':5 'libertarian':7 'republican':4", "contractId": "vO371mo655USoKMUkS1n", "createdTime": 1646725637176, "probChanges": {"day": 1.673513203558776e-07, "week": 1.673513203558776e-07, "month": 1.673513203558776e-07}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-30T23:22:00.41", "probChangeDay": 1.673513203558776e-07, "probChangeWeek": 1.673513203558776e-07, "totalLiquidity": 0.5142857142857143, "probChangeMonth": 1.673513203558776e-07}] | 64 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582382}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510664}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1674498729951}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.12315992815095103 | 1719632559421 | 1649370185213 | True | prob-desc | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49275479007537576 | 9g5y9kT8QIhiKX2FhglX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49275479007537576 | will-the-feedback-of-my-team-matchi | 22 | {"NO": 14.5, "YES": 7.5} | will the feedback of my team matching interview be positive despite the interviewer going on holidays without submitting his feedback? | 1645657140000 | tPWTREoGAYQDRDU5if09l7OgFWY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14.5, "YES": 7.5} | 0 | 5.785161119043017 | True | play | NO | public | 1645281818781 | oerpli | Had a team matching interview at Google on Feb 14th. The interviewer went on a 1 week holiday on Feb 15th and didn't submit his feedback before that. Will resolve the market when I hear back from them. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 15.669365044570249, "YES": 15.44393085001354} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646290989305 | 100 | oerpli | 1645281818781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhpX9PQdPpByylJbq2XPagtr7Xug6lYJoLAdIfxRY8=s96-c | 5 | 1715657678062 | 0 | 1 | 0.49275479007537576 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019849748763201572 | AhLHQjyYGmvNLdP12UKi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.019849748763201572 | will-man-city-beat-tottenham-today | 5326.444741608673 | {"NO": 1242.3972358037652, "YES": 257.15802258756185} | Will Man City beat Tottenham today? | 1645300800000 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1280, "YES": 150} | 0 | 4.647909129851015 | True | play | NO | public | 1645290593926 | Tyler | In today’s (Feb 19, 2022) game. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1474.698499385618, "YES": 271.9068001915405} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645298860921 | 100 | Tyler31 | 1645290593926 | 0 | 4 | 1715657712556 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397681}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.019849748763201572 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9649486842320475 | AKeb9Kf3se55lUNvGcC2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9649486842320475 | will-the-question-russian-invasion | 2502.661724717936 | {"NO": 113, "YES": 2346.338275282064} | Will the question "Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023" on Metaculus resolve as positive? | 1672635540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 113, "YES": 2350} | 0 | 4.635243221623901 | True | play | YES | public | 1645295888098 | Charles Vorbach | Will this question resolve positively?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 460.4374161504269, "YES": 2415.8532771577056} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1645719060235 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645295888098 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 19 | 1715657701447 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474931}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226544}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645565427474 | False | 0.9649486842320475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9756822550305262 | j5BC8XeZjvydIBXAD1aX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9756822550305262 | will-the-video-game-elden-ring-rece | 2660.651239755425 | {"NO": 316.30403281353284, "YES": 2183.0447274310422} | Will the Video Game "Elden Ring" receive a metacritic rating of 90 or above? | 1645743540000 | ZHksHVGImoNz8rFfEqYDMZ6l1yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 271, "YES": 2184} | 0 | 4.634924322558586 | True | play | YES | public | 1645297968584 | Blue Barry | This market resolves to "Yes" if the game Elden Ring has a metascore of 90 or above on the website metacritic.com at march 1st 23:59 GMT. It resolves to "No" otherwise.
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Feb 23, 1:44pm: I am referring to the PC-Version of the game. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 389.75229892629534, "YES": 2468.773454474161} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645795430877 | 100 | BlueBarry | 1645297968584 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxk40cETag7Ve1bQF4HTKq598iW_Fh3ZCJ9I74Y=s96-c | 17 | 1715658563907 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546724}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574065}] | ["economics-default", "culture-default"] | 1645655469563 | 0.9756822550305262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04178473591749268 | DLkD141AvISUbLVFD35Y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04178473591749268 | will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas | 1665.0217972200703 | {"NO": 627.8489281867564, "YES": 88.17011717239441} | Will the Federal Reserve make a basis-point hike between 49 and 99 points in March? | 1648760700000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 647.5, "YES": 82.5} | 0 | 4.682575142965289 | True | play | NO | public | 1645299580361 | Duncn | Will Federal Reserve make a 50 or 75 basis point hike in the fed funds target rate between the start of March 1st and the end of March 31st? This will still resolve YES if they do something wired like a 63% hike, or if they do two separate 25 basis point hikes. It will resolve NO if they fall outside this range for the totality of March, e.g., two 50 point hikes would result in NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 700.9010702901498, "YES": 146.36391297803925} | {"creatorFee": 3.4916145516199757, "platformFee": 0.8729036379049939, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1648765392266 | 100 | Duncn | 1645299580361 | 0 | 19 | 1715657782743 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566639}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645309597965 | 0.04178473591749268 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dr9DeDCWy6BNnwh36EX1 | name-my-dog | 100 | Name my dog | 1645966740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645302252493 | Undox | Correct name wins. Otherwise closest name wins. Profile pic dog. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645310611654 | 220 | Undox | 1645302252493 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "497b2b877457", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Dr9DeDCWy6BNnwh36EX1", "createdTime": 1645302252790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.436", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645310611000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47197701080746873 | jjrzQR0IMHlfz6435WSV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.47197701080746873 | this-market-will-resolve-based-on-t | 1771.6029218922517 | {"NO": 240.58932524396215, "YES": 237.8077528637864} | This market will resolve based on the number of votes for yes/no. | 1645592340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 203, "YES": 270} | 0 | 4.7144284669515 | True | play | NO | public | 1645304192383 | Garrett Baker | One person, one vote. I will only count votes which are de-anonymized, and you vote for whichever share you buy.
I'm creating this market to see if we can still have large meta-markets without their results getting dominated by whales.
If the number of votes for YES exceeds that for NO, then the market resolves YES. If the number for NO exceeds YES, then market resolves to NO. If they are equal, then it resolves to N/A.
Feb 20, 12:39pm: I should mention, vote changes are allowed. latest vote for any particular person will be used. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 377.1540549121638, "YES": 294.3119773310288} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645592612516 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1645304192383 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 20 | 1715658584416 | 0 | 1645592305239 | 0.47197701080746873 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9761121979655455 | CCfqjqZmuhAoA183u6Wq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9761121979655455 | will-the-ground-invasion-of-ukraine | 461.0060627261476 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 411.4939372738524} | Will the ground invasion of Ukraine occur during the night? | 1648785540000 | q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 411.5} | 0 | 4.71841250896618 | True | play | YES | public | 1645308765641 | alexlyzhov | From Wikipedia: "Typically combat at night is favorable to the attacker".
Resolves YES if and only if a ground invasion of (currently unoccupied regions of) Ukraine by Russian troops starts during the night (10pm - 7am UTC+2), as judged by credible reports.
If troops in question are unmarked, they must be identified as parts of Russian armed forces with a high degree of certainty. N/A if no such ground invasion by the end of March 2022 or if the identity or timing of first invaders is murky. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.94078516974562, "YES": 453.4796108344097} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645754429846 | 100 | alexlyzhov | 1645308765641 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145 | 7 | 1715657753721 | 0 | 1645703516830 | 0.9761121979655455 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1485910727668225 | pH11M00z93lPyRGJexrC | {"NO": 1140.9811329046051, "YES": 36064.7524329353} | 0 | will-democrats-maintain-control-of | 157560.10175887137 | {"NO": 595.5279908206141, "YES": 188} | Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms? | 1668652345050 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 596, "YES": 188} | 0 | 0.5686547268878801 | True | basic | NO | public | 1645312032880 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if, in the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, members of the Democratic party win a strict majority of seats. If I decide that the number of seats won by Democrats is ambiguous as of the resolution date, the market resolves to N/A.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 1:59 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 699.3357138904213, "YES": 353.33728749417986} | {"creatorFee": 10.34702494022402, "platformFee": 1.1689238127459536, "liquidityFee": 6.9852223257125665} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1668652345050 | 1923.4166818060485 | BoltonBailey | 1668649429127 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 1650314763496 | 0 | 199 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1665776999106}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505270}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458350}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 1668649428960 | 1668644872229 | 0.005491091795560992 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6967226401852001 | LW3yizy8cl9tH0WTRzUf | {"NO": 80984.0053467293, "YES": 1539.421648549809} | 1 | will-democrats-maintain-control-of-8d067eb38c33 | 172851.51567534634 | {"NO": 639.368697620784, "YES": 232.0911168285453} | Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms? | 1668325814051 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 642, "YES": 246} | 0 | 0.20929325115460884 | True | basic | YES | public | 1645312377751 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if, after the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. Senate, members of the Democratic party are set to control a majority of seats in the Senate for the 2023-2024 period (or 50% of seats and the Vice Presidency). If I decide that the number of seats won by Democrats is ambiguous as of the resolution date, the market resolves to N/A. Mar 6, 5:20pm: I'm noticing now that there's a bit of ambiguity between my title and the description - There are actually currently 2 seats held by independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Despite this, the consensus online seems to be that the democrats control the Senate currently, so I'm going to clarify that these senators (Bernie Sanders and Angus King, neither up for reelection in 2022), count as democrats for the purposes of this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 748.2666246152822, "YES": 446.70013387902736} | {"creatorFee": 12.458997653563115, "platformFee": 0.06804844918568864, "liquidityFee": 0.33773737762757816} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1668325814051 | 5920.3377373776275 | BoltonBailey | 1704323525507 | 0 | 0 | 358 | 1650314543345 | 0 | 298 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666048112713}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659192279620}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482372}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1704323523076}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"] | 1668324447744 | 1669085648542 | 0.9917934683574484 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4675803836736194 | 9fo7LWfH61HJ0xC56gV3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4675803836736194 | will-the-2022-march-madness-champio | 541.9824595545277 | {"NO": 243.59882156040297, "YES": 226.41871888506932} | Will the 2022 March Madness champion be a #1 seed? | 1648105140000 | QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 245, "YES": 226} | 0 | 4.716110660630019 | True | play | YES | public | 1645313128904 | edavis | This market resolves to YES if a #1 seeded team is the winner of the 2022 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament and NO if a team seeded #2 through #16 is the winner.
Feb 19, 3:25pm: Related market: https://manifold.markets/sam/which-team-will-win-the-2022-mens-n | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 342.95884949738314, "YES": 321.39797123492144} | {"creatorFee": 9.76070161781889, "platformFee": 2.4401754044547226, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1649130262019 | 100 | edavis | 1645313128904 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c | 10 | 1715657676560 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397512}] | ["sports-default"] | 1645325192158 | 0.4675803836736194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7541321938374087 | 0cYcOHPdnmnwLdEX14AM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7541321938374087 | if-cpi-is-up-less-than-06-in-februa | 220 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 165} | If CPI is up less than 0.6% in February, will the Fed raise rates less than 50 bps in March? | 1646969233752 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 165} | 0 | 4.819494081954624 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645314983707 | Tyler | Headline CPI, monthly change, seasonally adjusted, announced Mar 10.
Feds target rate change at March 15-16 meeting.
Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.0876253309696, "YES": 191.05059539464935} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1646969233752 | 100 | Tyler31 | 1645314983707 | 0 | 3 | 1715656875005 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563379}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.7541321938374087 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39979635414082293 | wGuPVCS8U4milOsDbZbL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.39979635414082293 | if-cpi-is-up-06-or-more-in-feb-will | 113 | {"NO": 68, "YES": 45} | If CPI is up 0.6% or more in Feb, will the Fed raise rates by 50bps or more at Mar meeting? | 1647513299454 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 68, "YES": 45} | 0 | 4.980127975912483 | True | play | NO | public | 1645315467410 | Tyler | Feb 19, 7:20pm:
Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/if-cpi-is-up-06-or-more-in-feb-will
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-federal-reserve-make-a-bas | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 87.54505126276415, "YES": 71.44991252898775} | {"creatorFee": 1.8, "platformFee": 0.45, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1647513299454 | 100 | Tyler31 | 1645315467410 | 0 | 2 | 1715658872493 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577306}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.39979635414082293 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5328536722752476 | bV8NkYQ4a4qDUs526vYk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5328536722752476 | will-i-increase-my-total-portfolio | 3478.5558860679985 | {"NO": 1196.8456143015992, "YES": 762.5984996304024} | Will I increase my total portfolio from 1000 to 1200 in 7 days? | 1645966740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1194, "YES": 765} | 0 | 4.640311462283509 | True | play | NO | public | 1645317210740 | Undox | I wont buy M. This is comparing the total portfolio statistic shown on the Your Trades page. Some meta: I stuck 500 in this pool so trading on this pool also affects the number.
Feb 20, 12:05pm: for the pedants: 1200 *or more* means YES.
Feb 28, 7:02am: Final result: https://ibb.co/P9MyT3s
The low result shown is a direct result of trading in this market and thus Manifold calculating that I am doing badly. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1339.2435781082986, "YES": 1430.3327560423402} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645992257573 | 100 | Undox | 1645317210740 | 0 | 19 | 1715658397132 | 0 | 1 | 1645884099816 | 0.5328536722752476 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3537349236069136 | XvYndtZvhre0lywffGbA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3537349236069136 | guess-my-dogs-name-luke-y-or-browni | 224 | {"NO": 143, "YES": 81} | Guess my dogs name. Luke (Y) or Brownie (N)? | 1645361940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 143, "YES": 81} | 0 | 4.8161952592560855 | True | play | NO | public | 1645319956295 | Undox | The order of the names in the title decided by coinflip BTW.
Feb 20, 12:19pm: Dog in profile pic. If that helps! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 180.075778494777, "YES": 133.22598095153964} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645361800877 | 100 | Undox | 1645319956295 | 0 | 6 | 1715658306649 | 0 | 0.3537349236069136 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8907976537020496 | CJ5IKGHeJ28FWG315Rjx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8907976537020496 | will-kansas-win-the-big-xii-mens-ba | 455 | {"NO": 93, "YES": 266} | Will Kansas win the Big XII men's basketball tournament in 2022? | 1647134555672 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 93, "YES": 266} | 0 | 4.745342903335443 | True | play | YES | public | 1645322909947 | CompmanJX3 | This market resolves YES if the University of Kansas wins the Big XII men's basketball tournament this year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.63467452907688, "YES": 338.83260173776074} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007874007874011811, "YES": 0.0006164414002968976} | 0 | 1647134555672 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1645322909947 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 5 | 1715657756692 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398048}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.8907976537020496 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2 | kIF1Z37KVNXC3fNu7Xn1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | will-i-update-towards-a-more-positi | 100 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 20} | Will I update towards a more positive view of the Consensus auto-scientific-literature-analysis system in the next six months? | 1692514740000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 20} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645331218059 | Scott Alexander | Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_masks.png and http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_ketamine.png , which I was not very impressed by. Since then, their team has continued to be very nice to me, answer my questions, and put another eight months or so of work into their product, which I have not yet checked. They recently launched a public beta, which you can see at https://consensus.app/blog/introducing-consensus/ . My current guess is that automating literature review doesn't work (even hiring PhDs to do literature review barely works!) and that this project will operate as a slightly higher-tech Google Scholar that's not worth sacrificing the familiarity and simplicity of the latter.
This market will resolve as positive if, on 8/19/2022, my opinion of Consensus is significantly more positive than the above. I would certainly resolve it positive if I routinely used Consensus instead of Google or Google Scholar when investigating (some subset of) scientific questions, or if I heard buzz from researchers that they did this and really appreciated it. I expect that the Consensus team will continue to let me assess their product free of charge, but if not, the amount I will pay for a subscription in order to resolve this prediction market will be a function of what the prediction market predicts - higher probability of me liking it = more money I will spend in order to test this. This could produce weird behavior, but I think it's more likely they'll continue to let me test it for free and this won't come up. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 89.44361352718259, "YES": 44.721806763591296} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1645331269822 | 100 | ScottAlexander | 1645331218059 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 1 | 1715658594683 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532672}] | ["science-default"] | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43179053965026143 | F4w8ACLoLmAVfOf5AQJL | {"NO": 64.55592972545502, "YES": 218.4571452295449} | 0 | will-i-update-towards-a-more-positi-00b26e1cae49 | 4290.610041663229 | {"NO": 1540.112047999719, "YES": 1499.1372607036046} | Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months? | 1660978740000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1557, "YES": 1499} | 0 | 2.8303741541209035 | True | play | NO | public | 1645331332208 | Scott Alexander | Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_masks.png and http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_ketamine.png , which I was not very impressed by. Since then, their team has continued to be very nice to me, answer my questions, and put another eight months or so of work into their product, which I have not yet checked. They recently launched a public beta, which you can see at https://consensus.app/blog/introducing-consensus/ . My current guess is that automating literature review doesn't work (even hiring PhDs to do literature review barely works!) and that this project will operate as a slightly higher-tech Google Scholar that's not worth sacrificing the familiarity and simplicity of the latter.
This market will resolve as positive if, on 8/19/2022, my opinion of Consensus is significantly more positive than the above. I would certainly resolve it positive if I routinely used Consensus instead of Google or Google Scholar when investigating (some subset of) scientific questions, or if I heard buzz from researchers that they did this and really appreciated it. I expect that the Consensus team will continue to let me assess their product free of charge, but if not, the amount I will pay for a subscription in order to resolve this prediction market will be a function of what the prediction market predicts - higher probability of me liking it = more money I will spend in order to test this. This could produce weird behavior, but I think it's more likely they'll continue to let me test it for free and this won't come up. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2280.1456981768415, "YES": 2009.472078442219} | {"creatorFee": 15.834089199950471, "platformFee": 0.9420751901436449, "liquidityFee": 4.639174020844997} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1689328311280 | 104.639174020845 | ScottAlexander | 1672575496898 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 60 | 1650312614503 | 0 | 1 | 62 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525975}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040777740}] | ["science-default", "please-resolve"] | 1660964641748 | 1672575493100 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24399860555139005 | Nwk8VVabayc8VN2G1E8q | {"NO": 133.25818569843415, "YES": 315.2829750232935} | 0.12003880049567567 | conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade | 13898.09085625807 | {"NO": 1433.5054400134713, "YES": 1624.6961414911484} | Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv? | 1672549140000 | q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1449.5, "YES": 1462.5} | 0 | 2.4996726119952433 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645331667270 | alexlyzhov | Assume this question about Ukraine being invaded in 2022 resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/
In this case, would Russian troops enter Kyiv in 2022 as asked here? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/
If there's no Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this question resolves N/A.
Feb 20, 12:42am: mind the exact criterion on metaculus; the troops should have Russian insignia and there should be at least 100 troops entering the city. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2515.347390785731, "YES": 1739.4339691948508} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1672589529743 | 163.5569020915268 | alexlyzhov | 1672589531800 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145 | 0 | 76 | 1650314560776 | 0 | 1 | 72 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065243954}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065241326}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663005981525}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662315720019}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483857}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065244971}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "please-resolve", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671478566185 | 1672589526791 | 0.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21036204461843255 | Xzz1SvqkLs7MXY1P5Y5b | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21036204461843255 | will-i-go-to-sleep-by-2-am-tonight | 162 | {"NO": 82, "YES": 40} | Will I go to sleep by 2 a.m. tonight? | 1645351200000 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 82, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.957404357180552 | True | play | YES | public | 1645334525955 | Anna | This market resolves YES if I get in bed and put away my phone with the intent to sleep before 2 am Pacific tonight. I hope to do so but I'm pretty bad at this and woke up quite late today. (I'll resolve the market in the morning.)
Feb 20, 9:24am: bedtime achieved at 1:59! thanks all for aligning my incentives :) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 108.41201040636597, "YES": 55.9560541912133} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1645377920068 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1645334525955 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 12 | 1715658312894 | 0 | 1 | 1645346509399 | 0.21036204461843255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7011028887277041 | JpqspMrbwYXMHGFJMTtW | {"NO": 1352.5336111599272, "YES": 41.640967891496075} | 1 | will-dan-andrews-win-the-2022-victo | 1736.2581697035732 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | Will Dan Andrews win the 2022 Victorian election? | 1669458726559 | pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | 0 | 4.197499841268942 | True | play | YES | public | 1645335867564 | Watt | This market resolves to “YES”, if after the 2022 Victorian election Dan Andrews is premier. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925} | {"creatorFee": 0.78402235151697, "platformFee": 0.130670391919495, "liquidityFee": 0.78402235151697} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1669458726559 | 120.78402235151698 | YairNeumann | 1669455543919 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c | 6 | 1650313898088 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481538}] | ["politics-default"] | 1669455541959 | 0.9870446394286483 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.882011759179941 | JWIjAdttyjlqiGcAwx3U | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.882011759179941 | will-team-a-be-more-influential-in | 322.99999999999994 | {"NO": 63.5, "YES": 219.50000000000006} | Will Team A be more influential in the debate on the fate of Kyiv than Team Z? | 1648785540000 | q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 63.5, "YES": 219.5} | 0 | 6.6605847675185705 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645335896078 | alexlyzhov | OK here's my mischievous attempt to encourage people to share good models.
== The debate question ==
Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv?
https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade
Let's have a debate in the comments to this question you're reading right now. You're in Team A if the first letter of your username is in the range A..K or a..k. Otherwise, you're in Team Z.
If you're in Team A, you argue for the positive resolution of the debate question ("Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, Russian troops WOULD enter Kyiv"). If you're in Team Z, you argue for the negative resolution ("Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, Russian troops WOULD NOT enter Kyiv"). Please use the comment question below to write arguments in favor of the position of your team.
Any user can award someone a delta vote ∆ if their comment caused the voter to change their mind about the debate question. For example, if Tom Shlomi wrote a juicy comment arguing that there'd be no troops in Kyiv and it caused you to update downwards, you write a comment saying "∆ for Tom Shlomi".
Voting rules:
- You can only award up to 4 ∆s in total and only 1 ∆ to any 1 debater.
- You can batch ∆s to give several in one comment if that's more convenient.
- To protect against voting with alt accounts, if you're giving out ∆s please have at least one question on any topic created in your Manifold Markets profile (you can use metaforecast.org to check for duplicates).
== Resolution criterion ==
This question resolves YES if Team A got more ∆s than Team Z in total, NO if Team Z got more ∆s, and N/A if teams have equal ∆ counts. Resolution happens right after the end of March 2022 or when the debate question about troops in Kyiv resolves, whichever is earlier. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 97.20919195477349, "YES": 265.7817506912391} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672590927636 | 100 | alexlyzhov | 1645335896078 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145 | 4 | 1650313896247 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1645997343980 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7396524381693326 | g7xfEhugzpb7LMwmL64e | {"NO": 996.0484211032563, "YES": 992.2070550350331} | 0.7403958384630194 | will-an-ea-who-had-100m-in-feb-28-2 | 1885.2610092995342 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 162.5155289467426} | Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance? | 1930021200000 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 170} | 0 | 9.583506401159905 | False | basic | public | 1645337616651 | Natália 🔍 | Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this. The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which I got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21):
—————
Linch 1:14 PM
Proposed bet operationalization:
"a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD. Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'"
Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M.
Joel Becker 5:17 PM
Needs to explicitly exclude crypto too
With that, I take the bet at $10 :)
Linch 9:00 PM
right excluding crypto and inheritances
—————
This market resolves to YES if Linchuan wins the bet and NO if Joel wins, according to Linchuan’s and Joel’s reports. If the two disagree on who won the bet, the market resolves to N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.0278434429245229} | 0 | {"NO": 123.89822903645437, "YES": 202.64089015926453} | {"creatorFee": 8.509406424640632, "platformFee": 0.11992615059046909, "liquidityFee": 0.2704886403473699} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | Natalia | 1718239437774 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1650314705489 | 0 | 35 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1660483075920}, {"name": "EA Index", "slug": "ea-index", "userId": "UJSbvX4oBRVfS1f5plXJ5Uc1LeZ2", "groupId": "oXZ5v3dDragVJoN4GBBK", "createdTime": 1678086200640}] | ["effective-altruism", "ea-index"] | 1718239434496 | 1669927674531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8002845929007169 | q3oAExjQE3bXIqsrSR25 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8002845929007169 | will-bjp-indias-ruling-party-win-st | 26 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 17} | Will BJP (India's ruling party) win state elections in Uttar Pradesh (India's most populous state)? | 1646887576245 | uI8uEZMyDTStfFCmbFISdbeLKqw1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 17} | 0 | 5.675241861354484 | True | play | YES | public | 1645351876571 | Siddharth Ratnam | This market resolves to 'YES' if BJP holds the highest number of assembly constituency seats 'won', one day from after counting of votes is closed (on 11 March 2022) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.619724635291492, "YES": 23.260137583428005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646887576245 | 100 | SiddharthRatnam | 1645351876571 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwKjHpJgB1L9tZ7N0YcQMiI1XmcGdzl24QzWtkE=s96-c | 3 | 1715658725600 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506086}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243801}] | ["politics-default", "india"] | False | 0.8002845929007169 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8794352548599277 | OR9FQ7Gdtvft0AmHGzMJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8794352548599277 | will-mm-make-it-easier-to-associate | 72 | {"NO": 12.5, "YES": 59.5} | Will MM make it easier to associate free response # references with the specific response wording? | 1647410340000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12.5, "YES": 59.5} | 0 | 5.139639355189075 | True | play | YES | public | 1645360952931 | Em ✨ | Like adding hover tooltips, or anchor tag linking them to the response. Resolving No if I don't see anything by Mar 20
N/A if free responses are discontinued
Feb 24, 12:05pm: They did so in a way I did not expect! If you expand the answer it shows all the trades about it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 25.000500000000002, "YES": 67.52124851296813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645733256129 | 100 | hamnox | 1645360952931 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 1715658079059 | 0 | 0.8794352548599277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5988070589293811 | Jq3CwggVVRRysf4JNszS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5988070589293811 | will-dr-p-resolve-his-question-abou | 223.30910288463247 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 85.69089711536755} | Will Dr. P resolve his question about Trump being president? | 1646024340000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 85} | 0 | 4.922028809628214 | True | play | NO | public | 1645361892157 | Duncn | Is Dr. P still around? If the question does not resolve or the site admins have to resolve it, this resolves NO. If it resolves in a timely fashion with no indication of intervention, this will resolve YES. This market will quite possibly be informed by information on the Market Resolution discord channel, as that's where admins are most likely to comment on their actions. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 87.84716090657363, "YES": 107.32343008921332} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646343478422 | 100 | Duncn | 1645361892157 | 0 | 10 | 1715657944240 | 0 | 1 | 1645379205746 | 0.5988070589293811 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03171450717795847 | o3uZiSaETgAXGOBLJ6b3 | {"NO": 90.92004702622596, "YES": 280.54202533817744} | 0 | will-reuters-be-using-turkiye-to-re | 511.81617784371974 | {"NO": 63, "YES": 3} | Will Reuters be using Türkiye to refer to Turkey by the end of April? | 1651335120000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 63, "YES": 3} | 0 | 10.15365927343993 | True | play | NO | public | 1645364728372 | Duncn | Will Reuters be using Türkiye or Turkiye preferentially to Turkey in its releases by April 30th, 2022?
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 4:53 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 12:12 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 65.38444769897502, "YES": 9.000333332716073} | {"creatorFee": 0.9785770759893719, "platformFee": 0.163096179331562, "liquidityFee": 0.9785770759893719} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1651365041038 | 100.93368859876321 | Duncn | 1645364728372 | 0 | 12 | 1650314756590 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}] | ["turkey"] | 1650401300047 | 0.010503415960561835 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0558931731391971 | Cl0sqz4Bx1ikJdiZogxK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0558931731391971 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-in-march | 29 | {"NO": 24.3, "YES": 4.699999999999999} | Will Russia invade Ukraine in March but NOT before the end of February? | 1645495380000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 24.3, "YES": 4.699999999999999} | 0 | 5.606465955962463 | True | play | NO | public | 1645364843574 | Patrick Delaney | Tailing off of this market: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
As of authoring this, there is only one week in February left with an implied 40% chance on the above market of an invasion occurring, whereas there are about four weeks in March left. Using a naive approach, zooming out and treating all weeks as having equal distribution in terms of extreme geopolitical events, the likelihood of something happening in a Month with more weeks should be greater than a month with fewer weeks.
We will use the market resolution metric, "If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil."
* I'm setting this to close at 3:59PM CST, or 11:59PM Ukraine Time on Feb 28th, 2022 to attempt to set a more accurate price according to https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit
* However, the resolution will be on 11:59:59 PM Ukraine Time on March 31st, 2022.
* The resolution will be the time of invasion, not the time of reporting.
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 8:03 pm
Feb 21, 8:01pm: Closing trading since both markets have closed trading. Will resolve based upon outcomes and resolutions of other markets. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 28.178867978149867, "YES": 6.856340165861084} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045} | 0 | 1645707034924 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645364843574 | 0 | 4 | 1715657768305 | 0 | 1 | 0.0558931731391971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xsqLzUyDCeaUgRfMxiar | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | donate-to-me-whales-prize-to-bigges | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Donate to me, whales. Prize to biggest donor. | 1645707540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645364855575 | Undox | This market will resolve such as to make me a profit. Biggest donor wins prize. The prize is to place a trade on the market of their choice using up to half the profit i make from this market, with a comment (not inappropriate) of their choice.
This means you need to comment with your trade to be in the running. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645379718773 | 100 | Undox | 1645364855575 | 0 | 1 | 1715658926576 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS | what-will-the-second-place-answer-o | 185 | What will the second place answer on the manifold features free response question be? | 1645556400000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.051081261643076 | True | play | eb371362fe22 | public | 1645367555172 | Em ✨ | https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645603436406 | 380 | hamnox | 1645367555172 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5bf7827ed845", "prob": 0.19321338002656685, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.984496526669341, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.34026330917367, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645367555341, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.146", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 16.315796535576755, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2ad8e54be683", "prob": 0.10868252626494385, "text": "#18", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3.20475223948582, "userId": "8DSVFmhmsQZ9GOYcwsm7wXWkChj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.282529199605378, "textFts": "'18':1", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645380066004, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.148", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 9.177635551261925, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7090ca037f2b", "prob": 0.012196594614177032, "text": "#21 - \"Graphs for multiple-choice questions (stacked filled areas) and better graphs in general\"", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.11444417875838439, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.268845368748359, "textFts": "'21':1 'area':10 'better':12 'choic':6 'fill':9 'general':15 'graph':2,13 'multipl':5 'multiple-choic':4 'question':7 'stack':8", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645440775131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.126", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0299346563082827, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "eb371362fe22", "prob": 0.255103936722618, "text": "#16 Open-sourcing the codebase", "index": 3, "poolNo": 12.621454635956574, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.854279835676664, "textFts": "'16':1 'codebas':6 'open':3 'open-sourc':2 'sourc':4", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645507233863, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.414", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 21.567443545465515, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a597507c6189", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "#18 All markets listed on a single webpage (upto hundreds of rows) in spreadsheet format, so _one_ row per market.\nMake this single table sortable and filterable, by clicking on any column(s).\ne.g. filter to the type of market you are interested in and sort by amount wagered", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'18':1 'amount':48 'click':29 'column':32 'e.g':34 'filter':27,35 'format':15 'hundr':10 'interest':43 'list':4 'make':21 'market':3,20,40 'one':17 'per':19 'row':12,18 'singl':7,23 'sort':46 'sortabl':25 'spreadsheet':14 'tabl':24 'type':38 'upto':9 'wager':49 'webpag':8", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645531737996, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.414", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "70d9027cf2cc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "None of the above.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645531836340, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.412", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "af9854f5acd8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "None of the previous answers.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'answer':5 'none':1 'previous':4", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645531870690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.415", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7f0e39409e00", "prob": 0.22762951334379908, "text": "None of the previous answers.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 10.435207817468713, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.407739628928326, "textFts": "'answer':5 'none':1 'previous':4", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645531889597, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.414", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 19.222047793476367, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8c4556b9a6a6", "prob": 0.20287404902789516, "text": "#26 Dividends", "index": 8, "poolNo": 8.642658529521114, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.958445805576716, "textFts": "'26':1 'dividend':2", "contractId": "PTvHUWWIx4G8THZtUPFS", "createdTime": 1645534397548, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.412", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645603436000, "totalLiquidity": 17.13158636235559, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1645531972849 | {"eb371362fe22": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29117059642370585 | fIU6clh5WFXEzqsrGqfQ | {"NO": 34.12513908487494, "YES": 665.1128405762274} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-implement-a-d-42f10c4e90b1 | 4525.247616213964 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 25} | Will Manifold Markets implement a default market resolution mechanism to be triggered a set time after market close. | 1672560000000 | UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.840104712601096 | True | play | NO | public | 1645376466164 | Tamuz Hod | In order to solve the issue of market makers abandoning their markets Manifold should force a resolution some time after close day. Will resolve if this feature is implemented. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.213910542377615, "YES": 33.91238712476608} | {"creatorFee": 4.661715223900559, "platformFee": 0.4099624294098213, "liquidityFee": 2.4597745764589276} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1673206704146 | 142.45977457645893 | TamuzHod | 1673155980823 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c | 15 | 1650314698975 | 0 | 2 | 16 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557903}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 1672556978854 | 1673155976804 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9545370857171576 | gaaHmRRxYPiqqi9v3Few | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9545370857171576 | should-manifold-markets-implement-a | 34.834488544369016 | {"NO": 5.165511455630984, "YES": 28} | Should Manifold Markets implement a default market resolution mechanism to be triggered a set time after market close. | 1648796340000 | UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 28} | 0 | 5.525455694257494 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645376599700 | Tamuz Hod | In order to solve the issue of market makers abandoning their markets Manifold should force a resolution some time after close day. Will resolve PROB. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 32.40381893599119} | {"creatorFee": 0.1929740334654217, "platformFee": 0.04824350836635542, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648826542638 | 100 | TamuzHod | 1645376599700 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c | 6 | 1715658526092 | 0 | 1 | 1645378740737 | 0.9545370857171576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7465639744152252 | huQh7GDCoRuVdJsRo8N5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7465639744152252 | will-will-smith-win-best-actor-at-t | 247 | {"NO": 79.5, "YES": 137.5} | Will Will Smith win best actor at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648357140000 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 79.5, "YES": 137.5} | 0 | 4.822040373268772 | True | play | YES | public | 1645379892917 | CompmanJX3 | This market resolves to YES if Will Smith wins best actor at the 2022 Academy Awards on March 27th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.24357647134224, "YES": 187.4973999839731} | {"creatorFee": 3.180000000000001, "platformFee": 0.7950000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1648437125055 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1645379892917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 10 | 1715658553633 | 0 | 1 | 0.7465639744152252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9497606661476818 | wS6yuzVYvjCXE4KYWAx5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9497606661476818 | will-the-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-aliv | 35706.476060737936 | {"NO": 836, "YES": 10378.47134427243} | Will the Queen Elizabeth II be alive at the end of March 2022? | 1648591140000 | l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 836, "YES": 10445} | 0 | 4.619568933698546 | True | play | YES | public | 1645381586996 | Christopher Chubb | This market resolves to Yes if the Queen is alive at the end of March 2022.
Feb 21, 5:33am: If there is any ambiguity of timing, I will go by when it is first reported on the BBC homepage.
Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2513.6266974147597, "YES": 10929.138611368002} | {"creatorFee": 33.527968742564916, "platformFee": 8.381992185641229, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1648767826721 | 100 | ChristopherChubb | 1645381586996 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzbts9F6ndUlv-5QEunxgzDUJsssR2C8J5AK-fy=s96-c | 51 | 1715658878580 | 0 | 1 | 1648569810557 | 0.9497606661476818 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dGFPFtXkh6s6qNdCAfQa | how-public-will-manifold-trader-ide | 1314.5111023271888 | How public will Manifold trader identities be in a month? | 1647413940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.672149232417448 | True | play | 5ae04830ba9e | public | 1645383381129 | Austin | Question resolves based on the state of trader identies by the end of Mar 20 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.250581767333786, "platformFee": 2.0626454418334466, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650831799639 | 820 | Austin | 1645383381129 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0ce4e6fe9c7", "prob": 0.01379246913052677, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.15844908891724885, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.329638172163124, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dGFPFtXkh6s6qNdCAfQa", "createdTime": 1645383381338, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, 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BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo | who-will-win-best-actor-at-the-2022 | 21 | Who will win Best Actor at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648437112256 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.8167650314076065 | True | play | 211419f95062 | public | 1645384272042 | David Glidden | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.44, "platformFee": 0.11, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648437112256 | 260 | dglid | 1645384272042 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1091b04a4a3e", "prob": 0.22675736961451246, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.284640042208522, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 72.58062254393109, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo", "createdTime": 1645384272239, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.919", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648437112000, "totalLiquidity": 39.30461073318216, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "211419f95062", "prob": 0.6802721088435375, "text": "Will Smith (King Richard)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 80.83765061697376, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.99369578997766, "textFts": "'king':3 'richard':4 'smith':2", "contractId": "BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo", "createdTime": 1645384604024, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.919", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648437112000, "totalLiquidity": 55.41950113378684, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2cd1c23aa8e6", "prob": 0.0929705215419501, "text": "Andrew Garfield", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5.159282265384289, "userId": "gpocMEuReRaq9xEznEi83iFh7D42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.33446112570039, "textFts": "'andrew':1 'garfield':2", "contractId": "BqM4nrBCr6p5iXlqttxo", "createdTime": 1645403695420, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.919", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648437112000, "totalLiquidity": 16.114890400604683, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"211419f95062": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ | who-will-win-best-supporting-actor | 76 | Who will win Best Supporting Actor at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648430487295 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.267739698591805 | True | play | a9ef76d25803 | public | 1645384343667 | David Glidden | Feb 20, 2:23pm: In the event of duplicate answers, will resolve to the earliest created instance of the answer.
Feb 20, 2:23pm: oh actually looks like I can now select multiple and it will auto-resolve to the corresponding distribution. I’ll plan on doing that! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1525798475317937, "platformFee": 0.2881449618829484, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648430487295 | 300 | dglid | 1645384343667 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7a88cd107b1f", "prob": 0.034530386740331494, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9142414228773545, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.562190183650827, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ", "createdTime": 1645384343976, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648430487000, "totalLiquidity": 4.834254143646409, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b185666ff6d3", "prob": 0.12810773480662985, "text": "Kodi Smith-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.874793399780787, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.78936208745684, "textFts": "'dog':9 'kodi':1 'mcphee':4 'power':6 'smith':3 'smith-mcphe':2", "contractId": "wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ", "createdTime": 1645384639085, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648430487000, "totalLiquidity": 17.935082872928177, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "71467174977f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kodi Smith-McPhee", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'kodi':1 'mcphee':4 'smith':3 'smith-mcphe':2", "contractId": "wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ", "createdTime": 1645384708662, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.911", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648430487000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a9ef76d25803", "prob": 0.8372618784530387, "text": "Troy Kotsur", "index": 3, "poolNo": 66.40195472309354, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.90651068295202, "textFts": "'kotsur':2 'troy':1", "contractId": "wktAVqHrHHR5Uf2Zh0tQ", "createdTime": 1647630052944, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.91", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648430487000, "totalLiquidity": 29.27486187845304, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1645386316072 | {"a9ef76d25803": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9 | who-will-win-best-actress-at-the-20 | 692.4722253968254 | Who will win Best Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648435800000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.9167379035265135 | True | play | a4a6cde8eb7d | public | 1645384383687 | David Glidden |
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.461110984126986, "platformFee": 1.1152777460317465, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648465356761 | 460.0000000000001 | dglid | 1645384383687 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eeb07afff139", "prob": 0.00499248357032299, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03772163507828373, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.517963736129321, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1645384383840, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.385", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5325315808344523, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "16a3cdf77181", "prob": 0.23859078982573564, "text": "Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 24.930915208398126, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.56144690921512, "textFts": "'kidman':2 'nicol':1 'ricardo':5", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1645384667823, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.386", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 44.536947434137325, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "12076fd42949", "prob": 0.2579117012428856, "text": "Kristen Stewart", "index": 2, "poolNo": 22.300273999324634, "userId": "FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.1644885215646, "textFts": "'kristen':1 'stewart':2", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1645396581807, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.385", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 37.82704951562322, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "42d4348ce129", "prob": 0.07343943331945119, "text": "Olivia Colman", "index": 3, "poolNo": 3.032413984222002, "userId": "FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.2589447199149, "textFts": "'colman':2 'olivia':1", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1645396652053, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.38", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 10.771116886852843, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a4a6cde8eb7d", "prob": 0.32456689777100284, "text": "Jessica Chastain", "index": 4, "poolNo": 41.99832195739939, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.39972277799188, "textFts": "'chastain':2 'jessica':1", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1646278976958, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.385", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 60.58582091725387, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "963724e08b5d", "prob": 0.10049869427060179, "text": "Penélope Cruz", "index": 5, "poolNo": 4.926870548818874, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.097353940634015, "textFts": "'cruz':2 'penélop':1", "contractId": "HQv4LGOfyqrBVJqEF0P9", "createdTime": 1646279001656, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.381", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465356000, "totalLiquidity": 14.739808493021599, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"a4a6cde8eb7d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu | who-will-win-best-supporting-actres | 48 | Who will win Best Supporting Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648428126464 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.419168393434646 | True | play | ba55fbd87eb6 | public | 1645384424327 | David Glidden | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4, "platformFee": 0.1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648428126464 | 340 | dglid | 1645384424327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fd45675d690d", "prob": 0.0625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.721325931647741, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.819888974716115, "textFts": "", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1645384424499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.039", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 6.666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ba55fbd87eb6", "prob": 0.9371, "text": "Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 35.38173173362043, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3748916082005374, "textFts": "'ariana':1 'debos':2 'side':4 'stori':5 'west':3", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1645384697789, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 9.166666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cffa9511d454", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Judi Dencg", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'dencg':2 'judi':1", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1647796928890, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2b253cbd14d1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Judi Dench", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'dench':2 'judi':1", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1647796948370, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a6088c85aeae", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Aunjanue Ellis", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'aunjanu':1 'elli':2", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1647796994752, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "10a5793b111f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kirsten Dunst", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'dunst':2 'kirsten':1", "contractId": "M7n1dyAwKJhfjDsOFrzu", "createdTime": 1647797025878, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428126000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"ba55fbd87eb6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b48jrMMTSSXFsY6a39do | who-will-win-best-director-at-the-2 | 20 | Who will win Best Director at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648437043031 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.850308340515122 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645384787718 | David Glidden | Mar 28, 7:03am: no bets. Resolving N/A | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648437043031 | 240 | dglid | 1645384787718 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c81e230b756d", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "b48jrMMTSSXFsY6a39do", "createdTime": 1645384787966, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.986", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648437043000, "totalLiquidity": 59.99999999999999, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2b909414b3f3", "prob": 0.75, "text": "Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 103.92304845413263, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.64101615137755, "textFts": "'campion':2 'dog':7 'jane':1 'power':4", "contractId": "b48jrMMTSSXFsY6a39do", "createdTime": 1645384804760, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.98", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648437043000, "totalLiquidity": 60, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt | which-film-will-win-best-original-s | 37 | Which film will win Best Original Screenplay at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648432834871 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.507655660841987 | True | play | 16bebc0ca68d | public | 1645384876317 | David Glidden | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5276256797823007, "platformFee": 0.13190641994557517, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648432834871 | 320 | dglid | 1645384876317 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1503793e9c90", "prob": 0.0855431993156544, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.6628967078240486, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.15636580663907, "textFts": "", "contractId": "R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt", "createdTime": 1645384876482, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648432834000, "totalLiquidity": 11.976047904191617, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "16bebc0ca68d", "prob": 0.8733960650128316, "text": "Belfast", "index": 1, "poolNo": 59.85517745113648, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.67636264717746, "textFts": "'belfast':1", "contractId": "R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt", "createdTime": 1645865052251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.712", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648432834000, "totalLiquidity": 22.788708297690306, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e69727ca55c6", "prob": 0.01967493584260051, "text": "Licorice Pizza", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.5017154085305233, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.998515572868683, "textFts": "'licoric':1 'pizza':2", "contractId": "R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt", "createdTime": 1645865078780, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.712", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648432834000, "totalLiquidity": 3.541488451668092, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ed35983a38f7", "prob": 0.0213857998289136, "text": "King Richard", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.44259909879422354, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.253334760823666, "textFts": "'king':1 'richard':2", "contractId": "R2aRsWTarVEmtk8UyyRt", "createdTime": 1646173542584, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.712", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648432834000, "totalLiquidity": 2.9940119760479043, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"16bebc0ca68d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jwfuQRPh9ZHG3GtAd2M9 | which-film-will-win-best-adapted-sc | 30 | Which film will win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648433066631 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.36638862471458 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645384913635 | David Glidden | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648433066631 | 240 | dglid | 1645384913635 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2f7920120ff5", "prob": 0.9999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jwfuQRPh9ZHG3GtAd2M9", "createdTime": 1645384913812, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.774", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648433066000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0140f42207dc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "The Power of the Dog", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.000240012000900075, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.39987999699985, "textFts": "'dog':5 'power':2", "contractId": "jwfuQRPh9ZHG3GtAd2M9", "createdTime": 1645385526177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.774", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648433066000, "totalLiquidity": 0.024, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q | which-film-will-win-best-cinematogr | 55.50510257216823 | Which film will win Best Cinematography at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648427876147 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.362394602864812 | True | play | 46733081f583 | public | 1645384955808 | David Glidden | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.579795897113271, "platformFee": 0.14494897427831774, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648427876147 | 280 | dglid | 1645384955808 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6a50e5866c74", "prob": 0.050510257216821904, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0193254570618357, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.959197091212204, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q", "createdTime": 1645384955977, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.12", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648427876000, "totalLiquidity": 8.755111250915798, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6cd917f3c527", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Done", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0001733420006500542, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.733246664499892, "textFts": "'done':1", "contractId": "wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q", "createdTime": 1645385483987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.117", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648427876000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017333333333333336, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "46733081f583", "prob": 0.9493897427831781, "text": "Dune", "index": 2, "poolNo": 46.67037545758752, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.4879136563976867, "textFts": "'dune':1", "contractId": "wmvQwEKTecrHZ4TdHh0Q", "createdTime": 1645386523696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.12", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648427876000, "totalLiquidity": 10.775521539588672, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"46733081f583": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7319948535010529 | ZunnDUzIwjB5yvAZHKfy | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7319948535010529 | will-this-markets-probability-be-in | 450.00000000000006 | {"NO": 44.522654653310326, "YES": 27.47734534668966} | Will this market's probability be in 1st and 3rd quartiles for most of this market's duration? | 1645905540000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26, "YES": 46} | 0 | 5.139639355189074 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645385337424 | Jenny | I have two timers: a YES timer and a NO timer. Both start at 0. At any given moment, one of the timers is counting up, depending on the market's probability (rounded to the nearest integer):
- From 0% to 24%, the YES timer is running
- From 25% to 49%, the NO timer is running
- From 50% to 74%, the YES timer is running
- From 75% to 100%, the NO timer is running
If the YES timer reaches 3 days, the market resolves YES.
If the NO timer reaches 3 days, the market resolves NO.
Close date updated to 2022-02-26 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-26 2:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 36.756659267403506, "YES": 61.91196976756594} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645502809575 | 100 | Jenny | 1645385337424 | 0 | 4 | 1715658350250 | 0 | 1645502790296 | 0.7319948535010529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x | which-month-of-2022-will-russia-inv | 570.1795623617649 | Which month of 2022 will Russia invade Ukraine? | 1672549140000 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.712223751705949 | True | play | 15d1440eb8cf | public | 1645387186477 | Pepe | Must be a whole calendar month, e.g. March 2022. Time will be in Ukraine local time (EET).
In the case of ambiguity I will go with the majority opinion of other forecasting and prediction sites. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645703555380 | 480.00000000000006 | Pepe | 1645387186477 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "130c7a3f9845", "prob": 0.0004167985467143417, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0007187053907720182, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.7236284556961219, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645387186644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03519632172254441, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "15d1440eb8cf", "prob": 0.9959612537335493, "text": "Feb 2022", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.119454163916362, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.061311259676399645, "textFts": "'2022':2 'feb':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645387237534, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.9628046429101275, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "35a58666f176", "prob": 0.0020839927335717084, "text": "Mar 2022", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.011851486310577072, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.6750619657651775, "textFts": "'2022':2 'mar':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645396281085, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.334", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.25934131795559034, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c95e29d255f7", "prob": 0.000270919055364322, "text": "Apr 2022", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0003766077467324346, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3897350853048556, "textFts": "'2022':2 'apr':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645412504441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.332", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02287760911965386, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a7be2ab68bf6", "prob": 0.0002792550262986089, "text": "May 2022", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0003941243148965079, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4109477595553284, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645412515415, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.331", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.023581535554104752, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e29fee19395", "prob": 0.00028759099723289576, "text": "Jun 2022", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0004119044382910456, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4318458583368032, "textFts": "'2022':2 'jun':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645412533668, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.334", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02428546198855564, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b87ba003d851", "prob": 0.00029592696816718256, "text": "Jul 2022", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00042994427377547525, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4524429602753637, "textFts": "'2022':2 'jul':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645412573916, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.331", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.024989388423006527, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dca6a2f5e95e", "prob": 0.00030426293910146935, "text": "Aug 2022", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.00044824014189423495, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4727516941581895, "textFts": "'2022':2 'aug':1", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645412588741, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.291", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.025693314857457412, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "284788993570", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 8, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EoFJvoZdl6l10nZyvN8x", "createdTime": 1645462051486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.291", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703555000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478495}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226581}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645588353379 | False | {"15d1440eb8cf": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.719618351583498 | 03AaOQyNzjhqolfhlFdR | {"NO": 188.11554176497052, "YES": 127.4823609557555} | 0.7911130443860277 | if-i-review-vaclav-havels-the-power | 1476.099000158733 | {"NO": 233.82696732795483, "YES": 453.87203951866735} | If I review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 241, "YES": 456} | 0 | 2.6577847610666927 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645399881617 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Power of the Powerless" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 383.24597434497497, "YES": 571.011228055294} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617115140 | 141.44206479035563 | ScottAlexander | 1698430502522 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 38 | 1650313765968 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029305}] | ["acx"] | 1676661233314 | 1698430501777 | 0.79 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7669229223309167 | e8uGjiClGKV41nT9b38V | {"NO": 487.8053080362645, "YES": 98.51042951145747} | 0.9421750662942776 | if-i-review-one-of-rene-girards-boo | 1929.551566258302 | {"NO": 290.963751058488, "YES": 586.3598247648445} | If I review one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire, will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 337, "YES": 586} | 0 | 3.249365206614119 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645400144107 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review any such book within a year, it resolves N/A.
I haven't decided exactly which book of his I would start with yet, but I'm leaning towards "I See Satan Fall Like Lightning". If someone making strong positive bids on this market wants to convince me another one is better, I'll probably be easy to convince. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 565.2073079954395, "YES": 670.9985919002653} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617086674 | 161.6359162467545 | ScottAlexander | 1677155297254 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 41 | 1650314687306 | 0 | 1 | 38 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029305}] | ["acx"] | 1677155297094 | 1645482187967 | 0.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.67223434911194 | nOpYTtT2yBTZA3Ma937Z | {"NO": 250.94614372242586, "YES": 102.0745559515322} | 0.834497438532657 | if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-searc | 1521.201210024017 | {"NO": 261.1431043929484, "YES": 499} | If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 282, "YES": 499} | 0 | 2.582527055622999 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645400259481 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 481.5580597180842, "YES": 588.1504013123783} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617076002 | 140.63453189632878 | ScottAlexander | 1674541596630 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 32 | 1650314753902 | 0 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029306}] | ["acx"] | 1674541596466 | 1651853876188 | 0.83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5030875305976498 | M8gItZ5iwuLxy5mhSoPz | {"NO": 117.94407194159764, "YES": 167.30967376495022} | 0.41646898654277253 | if-i-review-edward-teachs-penelopes | 3988.963218029415 | {"NO": 358.5326043129062, "YES": 724.6664792637614} | If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 529, "YES": 654} | 0 | 2.16346460141671 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645400339379 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 793.0329680973696, "YES": 737.8489903572253} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617109068 | 141.63966618150812 | ScottAlexander | 1677565652932 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 52 | 1650314548100 | 0 | 1 | 50 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029304}] | ["acx"] | 1677565652821 | 1677565210815 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7089426356480409 | R2RhG5dTvo5LbTIDToc8 | {"NO": 491.3104611817629, "YES": 62.636057823573694} | 0.9502629852933199 | if-i-review-joseph-stiglitzs-whithe | 1305.6564973188963 | {"NO": 311.79498082865865, "YES": 526.733776521646} | If I review Joseph Stiglitz's "Whither Socialism", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311, "YES": 531} | 0 | 3.5396273153716287 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645400422932 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Whither Socialism" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 511.06105481492517, "YES": 664.7922624500201} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617101323 | 121.42444120435168 | ScottAlexander | 1671747981730 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 34 | 1650314586031 | 0 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029305}] | ["acx"] | 1671747981611 | 1651524134145 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7511796617440243 | XjiS2LZMD3NVmi2YzfQF | {"NO": 446.80227243754007, "YES": 77.5123088135926} | 0.9456584924807792 | if-i-review-rick-perlsteins-nixonla | 3425.5354897279317 | {"NO": 461.41414344853547, "YES": 1589.8643573960205} | If I review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1677571140000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 554, "YES": 1589} | 0 | 3.598998416701782 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645400485300 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Nixonland" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1138.4459830208712, "YES": 1706.3669987223532} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1677617094341 | 122.62643914605832 | ScottAlexander | 1673513148914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 48 | 1650314633174 | 0 | 1 | 45 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1672955029305}] | ["acx"] | 1673513148754 | 1654158151947 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11495540093158597 | XwCKTFmoLMPmmWbS6tyr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11495540093158597 | will-david-do-1830-or-more-pushups | 1159.609762217524 | {"NO": 302.35880756434364, "YES": 120.03143021813243} | Will David do 1,830 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 27th? | 1646024340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 330, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.726870912726014 | True | play | NO | public | 1645401786224 | David Glidden | I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Sunday, February 20th, I had done 1,582 push-ups.
How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 27th? Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row for this date on the below spreadsheet is equal to or greater than 1,830, indicating the total number of push-ups I will have done through that date.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-DZ4VDkVs94HdE8jFkhp8Ek8Ya-6398Gcxp_dpBXZpA/edit
Full history of daily push-up counts is also available on the sheet. I update my counts throughout the day so a number listed does not mean it is final. I commit to not betting on this market myself.
Previous week's market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-david-do-1570-or-more-pushups | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 397.3721979802908, "YES": 143.21205964486663} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646049158143 | 100 | dglid | 1645401786224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 16 | 1715658307930 | 0 | 1 | 1646017154346 | 0.11495540093158597 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7357782448727961 | Pg3FbNAFsKcKQfxmx81E | {"NO": 82.00594244445738, "YES": 116.83774791608745} | 1 | if-i-review-bruce-finks-a-clinical | 6399.280379586343 | {"NO": 901.7917155163509, "YES": 3273.6527617046086} | If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes? | 1651042740000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1057, "YES": 3280} | 0 | 3.42386224449254 | True | play | YES | public | 1645401866903 | Scott Alexander | This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 pm
Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 am
Close date updated to 2022-04-26 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2144.3823948195077, "YES": 3582.7320689709827} | {"creatorFee": 3.6839622515758013, "platformFee": 0.6543067148278423, "liquidityFee": 3.200206176793297} | {"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799} | 0 | 1651105502068 | 103.2002061767933 | ScottAlexander | 1645401866903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 56 | 1650314573684 | 0 | 1 | 1651025537060 | 0.6615357505422024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | RaP6NqXVzFer3f4DJDS2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | this-question-measures-sentiment-to | 100 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | This question measures sentiment towards Peregrine Journal's 21 Feb Substack comment about self-grading comments. | 1646063940000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645410050184 | p_journal | This market will pay out at its PROB in one week.
Please vote in accordance with your sentiment towards the original comment.
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-212/comment/5177849
Feb 23, 11:06pm: CLOSING due to lack of interest. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 77.46044152081758} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645628822326 | 100 | p_journal | 1645410050184 | 0 | 1 | 1715658176119 | 0 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30330559992184786 | F3iApr9YNF2xvnuFdM3C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.30330559992184786 | will-scott-alexander-fill-in-his-pr | 162.98102684534257 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 46.01897315465742} | Will Scott Alexander fill in his profile page in next 48 hours | 1645521360000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.929164032272945 | True | play | NO | public | 1645410892379 | Undox | If his profile https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander updates his profile page to mention or link to ACX (Astral Codex Ten) or links to his socials. Whether this profile is owned by the real Scott Alexander is immaterial. I am assuming it is!
Now the edge cases. I will check soon after the market closes. If he has filled it in and then reverted it since then, I have no way to verify so it gets considered a NO. So the result is based on what I see soon after market close.
Feb 22, 8:13pm: Closing bets for now as i need to sleep. Will still check at the 48hr point to decide resolution.
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 7:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 8:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 8:16 pm
Feb 22, 8:16pm: Sorry fat finger mobile ^^
Feb 23, 1:13pm: Resolving in 20 minutes. Looks like no bio will be written! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 112.69877026527364, "YES": 74.35980319621267} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645587497071 | 100 | Undox | 1645410892379 | 0 | 12 | 1715657831547 | 0 | 1 | 0.30330559992184786 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1197408557164663 | I122Z0CFAlAnTqRxWQcu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 99.99999999999996} | 1 | will-winamp-actually-return-in-2022 | 126.00000000000004 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 18} | Will Winamp actually return in 2022? | 1672552740000 | 7U7wamvMyeTgfaiwKgAqaSXAZG13 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 18} | 0 | 6.576162833253579 | True | play | YES | public | 1645411085253 | The Land Of Random | This market will be resolved to YES if Winamp actually releases access to a new product in 2022. The current owners of Winamp.com currently say that they are reimagining the product for a new generation. However - there's been announcements like this in the past . . . .
It does look like they may be more serious this time?
https://www.winamp.com/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.21681775800769, "YES": 43.60087155287152} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009110433579144299, "YES": 0.0004123105625617661} | 0 | 1698554386203 | 100 | TheLandOfRandom | 1698554382331 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzzwFYzdslSQ7QV6B-ShUSZQZdMB1ScOwX07oUm=s96-c | 5 | 1650313885042 | 0 | 61 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072078}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1667245243485 | 1698554381547 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
osC0FVMFaLSdXHqRzZEG | how-will-this-market-resolve | 50 | How will this market resolve? | 1646197140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.303304908059076 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645427567030 | Jenny | Do NOT add custom responses, they will be ignored. Only answers #1, #2, and #3 are valid.
If none of the answers are correct, the market resolves NONE. Yes, you heard that right. Not N/A. NONE!
I promise not to trade in this market in the last 12 hours before it closes. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645427813894 | 280 | Jenny | 1645427567030 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "195097fb0441", "prob": 0.04, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1430952132988166, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.434285119171598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "osC0FVMFaLSdXHqRzZEG", "createdTime": 1645427567248, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.228", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645427813000, "totalLiquidity": 5.6000000000000005, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "70809ffe3cff", "prob": 0.3296, "text": "All three answers have different displayed probabilities, and this answer's probability is the smallest.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 32.35503227694271, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.80950739824756, "textFts": "'answer':3,10 'differ':5 'display':6 'probabl':7,12 'smallest':15 'three':2", "contractId": "osC0FVMFaLSdXHqRzZEG", "createdTime": 1645427609715, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.228", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645427813000, "totalLiquidity": 46.144, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "47b78c5ccf61", "prob": 0.31160000000000004, "text": "All three answers have different displayed probabilities, and this answer's probability is the smallest.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 29.349707563318166, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.84062479649623, "textFts": "'answer':3,10 'differ':5 'display':6 'probabl':7,12 'smallest':15 'three':2", "contractId": "osC0FVMFaLSdXHqRzZEG", "createdTime": 1645427616124, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.228", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645427813000, "totalLiquidity": 43.62400000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "652b3ca43869", "prob": 0.3188000000000001, "text": "All three answers have different displayed probabilities, and this answer's probability is the smallest.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 30.532909124314692, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.2415862468104, "textFts": "'answer':3,10 'differ':5 'display':6 'probabl':7,12 'smallest':15 'three':2", "contractId": "osC0FVMFaLSdXHqRzZEG", "createdTime": 1645427622822, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.228", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645427813000, "totalLiquidity": 44.63200000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1645427809557 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3649376444545478 | l7pxDWfGbjG7OZU6GFRh | {"NO": 74.55830279074785, "YES": 274.1402033386881} | 0 | private-question-1-ef50525f3207 | 15408.570994533648 | {"NO": 4643.256992671397, "YES": 7044.074935408039} | Private question #1 | 1654153140000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4907, "YES": 7042} | 0 | 2.820722634824804 | True | play | NO | public | 1645428828981 | Mike Blume | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9227.226986884914, "YES": 7173.007256672235} | {"creatorFee": 20.486390452397664, "platformFee": 4.293698962748454, "liquidityFee": 9.934783804211525} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1654311623179 | 109.93478380421153 | MichaelBlume | 1654145458394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 28 | 1650314737324 | 0 | 1 | 1654145457105 | 1653107853711 | 0.13516354274332062 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7170525119793942 | FBfLDp94jmeTR4MZNoZC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7170525119793942 | manifold-will-allow-me-to-sort-my-t | 2036.3005128076354 | {"NO": 547.281545783187, "YES": 570.4179414091776} | Manifold will allow me to sort my trades by end date by March 20th | 1647845940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 566, "YES": 566} | 0 | 4.658864351206866 | True | play | YES | public | 1645429052335 | Mike Blume | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 594.5362801853323, "YES": 946.4570727790231} | {"creatorFee": 23.82655852935582, "platformFee": 5.956639632338955, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647882520041 | 100 | MichaelBlume | 1645429052335 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 12 | 1715657836655 | 0 | 1 | 1647831654747 | 0.7170525119793942 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24086425687366403 | aKbyafqYrnb5taDJPjHb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.24086425687366403 | will-feb-29-be-one-of-the-two-most | 3392.91419257647 | {"NO": 1943.4964375085322, "YES": 123.58936991499749} | Will Feb 29 be one of the two most likely days for the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | 1645761540000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1945, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.639015525090167 | True | play | NO | public | 1645430650700 | Jenny | This market resolves after https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine closes.
This market resolves YES if answer #14 ("Feb 29") is in the first or second position.
Oh, and one last rule: Do NOT mention this market in the other market's comments! If someone asks you why you voted for a non-existent day, come up with some excuse! :D | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2053.3309970720356, "YES": 238.0749585478524} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1645759021276 | 100 | Jenny | 1645430650700 | 0 | 15 | 1715658367460 | 0 | 0.24086425687366403 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7433234761120198 | XsCscWIE1KfuT3D95FI4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7433234761120198 | will-there-emerge-a-new-covid-varia | 147.87726013401067 | {"NO": 52.12273986598932, "YES": 94} | Will there emerge a new COVID variant in the spring of 2022 ? | 1648038603992 | D3k0mi76wPdh7kx3iwJxjyTco5C2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 94} | 0 | 4.908542756707937 | True | play | YES | public | 1645431900519 | Robertas Strumila | This market resolves to YES if there will be a new COVID variant confirmed by WHO before May 31 2022.
Feb 21, 4:23pm: Clarification: named variant by WHO, last one was omicron, so the next one | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.031040516556, "YES": 125.98234952746103} | {"creatorFee": 2.084909594639573, "platformFee": 0.5212273986598932, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648038603992 | 100 | RobertasStrumila | 1645431900519 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c | 9 | 1715658305215 | 0 | 1645438054599 | 0.7433234761120198 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8473211306555481 | srSBQUw6sgPC4nyA1GuA | {"NO": 3005.028197278716, "YES": 206.2424207551213} | 1 | will-lula-da-silva-win-the-2022-pre | 16493.078756883886 | {"NO": 85.74516565615312, "YES": 195.88825547104153} | Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 presidential elections in Brazil? | 1667223611338 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 92.5, "YES": 198.5} | 0 | 2.6278908985331815 | True | play | YES | public | 1645436612619 | Zhao Nan | This market resolves YES if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the presidential election in Brazil, scheduled for Oct 2nd, 2022 (1st round) and Oct 30th, 2022 (2nd round). The market resolves NO if Lula withdraws his candidacy, (inclusive-)or if another candidate wins the election.
The market resolves N/A if the election is postponed for more than two weeks. Otherwise, the above applies.
The market will be resolved as soon as an official result is widely reported (expected within the week after the second election round). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 151.53212857173835, "YES": 237.3941051799058} | {"creatorFee": 18.024218846862432, "platformFee": 0.03654414610900972, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1667223611338 | 380 | ZhaoNan | 1667219826317 | 0 | 50 | 1650314786337 | 0 | 48 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508225}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 1667219824965 | 1663606376856 | 0.9877841859534943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08966294245165055 | pnDqs1bzLDIFSkIxYhwS | {"NO": 982.8143741230184, "YES": 15523.530549968482} | 0 | will-brazil-win-the-fifa-world-cup | 50398.919912206 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 7.285129506468053} | Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup 2022? | 1670832083818 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 7} | 0 | 1.0877516645447733 | True | basic | NO | public | 1645437061845 | Zhao Nan | This market resolves YES if Brazil wins the FIFA World CUP, which will be held in Qatar from Nov 21st to Dec 18th.
The market will be resolved as soon as Brazil is eliminated from the competition, or immediately after the final is over. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 76.88112949874947, "YES": 23.133406971863703} | {"creatorFee": 3.4350351572231936, "platformFee": 0.06510505411703686, "liquidityFee": 0.3906303247022212} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1670832083818 | 1380.3906303247022 | ZhaoNan | 1670821866575 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 1650314767690 | 0 | 76 | [{"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-09", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZgsJJPP", "createdTime": 1670503603284}, {"name": "Brazil vs South Korea 2022-12-05", "slug": "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZORwmYp11aXfELyFvOxg", "createdTime": 1670018801374}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583770}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408029}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670711297996}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "please-resolve"] | 1670821866478 | 1670704809801 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1773331734717102 | dTqYscag1tkoo1PaG01r | {"NO": 366.40301816819044, "YES": 5013.425441697127} | 0 | will-all-nuclear-power-plants-in-ge | 14074.747161052981 | {"NO": 472.17215488165823, "YES": 848.6925459063971} | Will all nuclear power plants in Germany be shut down in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 443, "YES": 850} | 0 | 1.3848145016220887 | True | play | NO | public | 1645437763930 | Zhao Nan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Germany is planning to phase out nuclear energy completely this year. However, there are concerns about energy prices and network stability. This market resolves to YES if no nuclear power plants are running by Dec 31st, 2022, and if there are no concrete plans to start one again (e.g., if a reactor is scheduled to be kept working, but is incidentally down for maintenance on Dec 31st, this market will be resolved NO).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 7, 6:41pm: Just for clarification - a reactor being \"in reserve\" does NOT count as \"shut down\" for the purpose of this market (unless someone makes a very convincing counterargument).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 768.8916431992456, "YES": 1074.0073745262102} | {"creatorFee": 35.8126573390567, "platformFee": 0.70108204544544, "liquidityFee": 4.058671612014887} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1672592481687 | 644.0586716120149 | ZhaoNan | 1672415690534 | 0 | 139 | 1650314682005 | 0 | 1 | 121 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016684172}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406875}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572505}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181928945}] | ["economics-default", "stefans-group", "global-macro", "nuclear"] | 1672415690337 | 1666042527415 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2335592606545372 | N9FIySBGiX6xP9jf0pQA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2335592606545372 | will-test-positive-for-covid-in-the | 113.34776001214534 | {"NO": 77.5, "YES": 27.152239987854657} | Will test positive for covid in the next 7 days? (more info inside) | 1646002740000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 77.5, "YES": 26.5} | 0 | 5.004115075773155 | True | play | NO | public | 1645438050100 | jskf | On Saturday I spent most of the day inside with three people, one of whom felt sick today and just got a positive antigen test. Both of us are vaccinated and boosted.
If I develop symptoms I'll do an antigen test, and if that's positive a PCR test. For unrelated reasons, if I *don't* have symptoms I will be tested on Thursday. I believe a PCR test, but I'm not entirely certain.
Market resolves positive if I get a positive PCR test result from a sample taken within a week from market opening. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 91.62035472547177, "YES": 50.576785583251734} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646315311456 | 100 | jskf | 1645438050100 | 0 | 9 | 1715658039438 | 0 | 1 | 0.2335592606545372 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8598221998627896 | 1INEwJ5mpQdNq7RRjN7f | {"NO": 228.43014089671192, "YES": 90.91799307023535} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-let-users-sel | 364.554046971541 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 69.98754692174846} | Will Manifold Markets let users sell a portion of their shares in a market before 1 July 2022 | 1650446633780 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 72} | 0 | 5.7147539779101475 | True | play | YES | public | 1645444415834 | Jordan Berman | When a trader makes an individual purchase on Manifold (e.g., 50 shares of "yes"), they have the option to sell the entire individual trade (all 50 shares).
This market will resolve to "yes" if Manifold introduces the functionality to sell a portion of those shares (e.g., 1, 2, 3, ... of the same hypothetical 50 shares) before 1 July. It will resolve to "no" if not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 88.16333731095489} | {"creatorFee": 1.7026539300807668, "platformFee": 0.28472063558628413, "liquidityFee": 1.6913141632068909} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650446633780 | 101.6386169712931 | smingers | 1645444415834 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 10 | 1650313771774 | 0 | 1650435161486 | 0.9390655457748978 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06173033059219094 | FcmEV1TjQVfS8aeLgE3A | {"NO": 163.75321756887138, "YES": 727.189107519061} | 0 | will-a-general-covid19-vaccine-mand | 903.8108924809385 | {"NO": 107.5, "YES": 17.5} | Will a general Covid-19 vaccine mandate in Germany come into effect in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 107.5, "YES": 17.5} | 0 | 7.858866141702533 | True | play | NO | public | 1645448773522 | Zhao Nan | Germany's government originally (~Nov 2021) intended to make COVID-19 vaccination mandatory. However, there has been disagreement recently.
This market resolves YES if a general vaccine mandate for everybody above the age of 18 is in effect on Dec 31, 2022, or has been in effect for at least one month of the year 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 120.3129876644662, "YES": 33.91216596223249} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1672592459957 | 180 | ZhaoNan | 1672233574072 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1650313870551 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}] | ["medicine"] | 1672233573817 | 1649313525210 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20000000000000007 | ntipFH5KvvWcY6SAIvNJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.20000000000000007 | will-the-2022-golden-raspberry-for | 25 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 5} | Will the 2022 Golden Raspberry for the Worst Screen Combo go to Jared Leto & either his 17-pound latex face, his geeky clothes or his ridiculous accent? | 1648335540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.700548750959896 | True | play | NO | public | 1645456013636 | Zhao Nan | See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Golden_Raspberry_Awards#Nominees
Market will resolve on or shortly after Mar 26th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.361574202188894, "YES": 11.180787101094449} | {"creatorFee": 0.2, "platformFee": 0.05, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648451628224 | 100 | ZhaoNan | 1645456013636 | 0 | 3 | 1715658667108 | 0 | 1 | 0.20000000000000007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8689230966185275 | RT1JOYWHEFwT8aS25ziI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8689230966185275 | will-the-2022-golden-raspberry-for-1f8abeb7fae8 | 78.94128133291758 | {"NO": 12.05871866708241, "YES": 25} | Will the 2022 Golden Raspberry for the Worst Picture go to "Diana" (the Musical)? | 1648335540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 25} | 0 | 5.461509412375399 | True | play | YES | public | 1645456277132 | Zhao Nan | See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Golden_Raspberry_Awards#Nominees
Market will resolve on or shortly after Mar 26th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 13.417302292189735, "YES": 34.54560387203119} | {"creatorFee": 0.4823487466832963, "platformFee": 0.12058718667082408, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648451557280 | 100 | ZhaoNan | 1645456277132 | 0 | 5 | 1715658171168 | 0 | 1 | 0.8689230966185275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006515446651349119 | RYeZaHKhfPTwNbr0Q0y1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.006515446651349119 | will-sergey-lavrov-and-antony-blink | 1097.0110725545715 | {"NO": 800.4889274454284, "YES": 42.5} | Will Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in February 2022? | 1646089140000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 800.5, "YES": 42.5} | 0 | 4.672707617698661 | True | play | NO | public | 1645460572223 | Zhao Nan | Antony Blinken, Secretary of State for the United States of America, recently announced that he accepted an invitation for a meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.
This is a market on whether Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in person by February 28, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). This market will resolve to "YES" if Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in person at any point between February 18, 2022, and February 28, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be https://www.state.gov/, https://www.mid.ru/en/, and/or information from other official webpages and verified accounts from the governments of the United States of America and the Russian Federation, however credible media sources will also suffice. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 840.2392116379112, "YES": 68.04472794089193} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1646123971828 | 100 | ZhaoNan | 1645460572223 | 0 | 10 | 1715658172700 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486733}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226662}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.006515446651349119 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq | what-rotten-tomatoes-status-will-th | 2795.8340923211254 | What Rotten Tomatoes status will "The Batman" have one week after release? | 1647005475869 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.641637902367651 | True | play | 56836ed299f6 | public | 1645460588749 | David Glidden | This market will resolve to "Certified Fresh", "Fresh", or "Rotten" around 8:30am ET Friday, March 11th, 2022 when I check https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_batman. Market closes 15 minutes prior. The Batman is set to release Friday, March 4, 2022.
For an overview of how Rotten Tomatoes calculates a movie's status, see https://www.rottentomatoes.com/about. For a deeper dive, consult https://www.rottentomatoes.com/faq. To get a sense of timing of the Certified Fresh status, consult https://twitter.com/RottenTomatoes.
Close date updated to 2022-03-11 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647005475869 | 660 | dglid | 1645460588749 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "168c7728c3da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq", "createdTime": 1645460588896, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.011", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647005475000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "56836ed299f6", "prob": 0.9765173272554183, "text": "Certified Fresh", "index": 1, "poolNo": 99.64161036300028, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.396118596762436, "textFts": "'certifi':1 'fresh':2", "contractId": "7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq", "createdTime": 1645460596745, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.011", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647005475000, "totalLiquidity": 15.451637958551244, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "641578483483", "prob": 0.023043789763471184, "text": "Fresh", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.2032953117244625, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.01447459832375, "textFts": "'fresh':1", "contractId": "7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq", "createdTime": 1645460600475, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.011", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647005475000, "totalLiquidity": 7.834888519580202, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0deee87ef1cf", "prob": 0.0003388829811105266, "text": "Rotten", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0011231059896582702, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.3130179169021625, "textFts": "'rotten':1", "contractId": "7YVwhUR9gITHxfkOvjgq", "createdTime": 1645460604188, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.011", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647005475000, "totalLiquidity": 0.06099893659989478, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860962038}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | {"56836ed299f6": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9907515793180249 | RZSzbIomMFD6sB0pXQWx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9907515793180249 | will-the-batman-make-125-million-or | 453.31619725712926 | {"NO": 26.288705476333234, "YES": 362.3950972665375} | Will "The Batman" make $125 million or more on opening weekend? | 1646629140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 22, "YES": 364} | 0 | 4.7359865021779655 | True | play | YES | public | 1645461941688 | David Glidden | This market resolves to "Yes" if "The Batman" makes $125 million or more in its opening weekend per the "Domestic Opening" value expected to appear on its Box Office Mojo page: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1877830. Market closes midnight Eastern Monday night but I expect to resolve Monday or Tuesday depending on when the opening weekends numbers get posted to Box Office Mojo (not sure when that typically is).
Resources:
https://www.hsx.com/security/view/TBATM.OW
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-batman/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/02/10/the-batman-box-office-first-tracking-suggests-an-80-million-weekend
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/02/17/box-office-the-batman-gets-a-china-release-as-a-treat/
Feb 21, 2:21pm: Correction: Market closes Sunday night
Mar 7, 6:56am: resolves at $128,500 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 37.37931587210077, "YES": 386.8832674440678} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646654206664 | 100 | dglid | 1645461941688 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 13 | 1715658174657 | 0 | 1 | 0.9907515793180249 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | QdvnoM0XB07ZqH3j3t7w | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-mondays-feb-21-xkcd-have-more | 245.909218527858 | {"NO": 218, "YES": 26.09078147214199} | Will Monday's (Feb 21) xkcd have more than one panel? | 1645505940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 218, "YES": 26} | 0 | 4.801120500417426 | True | play | NO | public | 1645462592811 | Jenny | This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2022-02-21 has more than one panel.
Feb 21, 11:57am: (continuing where @charlie left off) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 241.41613158477375, "YES": 36.04232502055221} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645501330992 | 100 | Jenny | 1645462592811 | 0 | 5 | 1715658151562 | 0 | 0.49999999999999994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.652776620379051 | wpBjyMk9YlOU9F0UpnwF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.652776620379051 | will-my-husband-be-able-to-book-che | 120 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | Will my husband be able to book cheap accommodation in Whistler for my youngest's last freeride comp? | 1646121540000 | MhJVlvBQ0AdCNhHOe9Jaacysh9u2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | 0 | 3.05810159792889 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645462815555 | Wendy Kelly | It is possible to find accommodation for under $100/night in Whistler from March 16 - March 20. This is my first wager — a little tongue in cheek but I have also been surprised at the difficulty. Speaks to a lot about what is going on in British Columbia tourism/real estate. Yes, the accommodation price per night is absurdly low. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1700930692434 | 100 | WendyKelly | 1680902608821 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjifYIsy7Abm_wnDjwQQozM7tvHHMPis5u2CRUlqA=s96-c | 2 | 1650314814120 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779596777}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1680902606375 | 0.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq | how-will-russia-perform-in-eurovisi | 130 | How will Russia perform in Eurovision 2022? | 1652565540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453523 | True | play | 6380821a150e | public | 1645475268707 | David Glidden | Specifically, in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contents Final. Only ordinal numbers (i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3rd) will be considered as permitted answers except "Will not participate in the Final" or similar.
Russia placed 9th in 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2021#Final
Feb 21, 4:42pm: Inspired by this tweet (limited access): https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1495854906556796935 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645877852365 | 340 | dglid | 1645475268707 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0b72001b609e", "prob": 0.008264462809917357, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.10562142982193291, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.674571578631946, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq", "createdTime": 1645475268880, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.716", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645877852000, "totalLiquidity": 1.1570247933884301, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6380821a150e", "prob": 0.9503132231404958, "text": "Will not participate in the Final", "index": 1, "poolNo": 56.38352211802926, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.947991687175816, "textFts": "'final':6 'particip':3", "contractId": "dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq", "createdTime": 1645475287002, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.716", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645877852000, "totalLiquidity": 12.89256198347109, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "483a76419180", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "9th", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'9th':1", "contractId": "dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq", "createdTime": 1645475294213, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.753", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645877852000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8cc24d4ef159", "prob": 0.041322314049586785, "text": "9th", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.2010709896202065, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.864846959188785, "textFts": "'9th':1", "contractId": "dG3xTaOz8wklrn9tmlvq", "createdTime": 1645480990293, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.754", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645877852000, "totalLiquidity": 5.78512396694215, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1645839548303 | {"6380821a150e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY | what-book-should-i-read | 209.50944415991168 | What book should I read? | 1646089140000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.869012934423752 | True | play | 55a99fbe2ef3 | public | 1645478529482 | Arie Arie | Resolves to whatever book out of the suggestions I actually choose to read. May be fiction or nonfiction. I am very confident that nobody in this market has private information regarding my book prefrences. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646141575689 | 700.0000000000002 | ArieArie | 1645478529482 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "06bbf1d73fbf", "prob": 0.3360006533078452, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.257537125561733, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.080265333512955, "textFts": "", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645478529615, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.288", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 25.665868070780906, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8c0552dbb12", "prob": 0.04630871903084172, "text": "Mother of Learning", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.4119644842814862, "userId": "0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.672492498325006, "textFts": "'learn':3 'mother':1", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645478983468, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.288", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 10.945697225471681, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "55a99fbe2ef3", "prob": 0.0325332735648729, "text": "Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankl", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.9328447906830641, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.740715797154095, "textFts": "'frankl':8 'man':1 'mean':5 'search':3 'victor':7", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645497206035, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.288", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 5.08702095741649, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c307d23556e7", "prob": 0.07249564124317566, "text": "The Crystal Society", "index": 3, "poolNo": 3.979888726869689, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.9184287253445, "textFts": "'crystal':2 'societi':3", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645657582557, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 14.235507735023585, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a640dd99416", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Worth the Candle on AO3", "index": 4, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'ao3':5 'candl':3 'worth':1", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645811396882, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.294", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5132ab8e153", "prob": 0.11104638617758554, "text": "Existential Kink", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6.136953836272062, "userId": "9V9tWsjLzWYKVx5z834jNTgs7503", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.12782377168933, "textFts": "'existenti':1 'kink':2", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645866300690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 17.36361674776792, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52ae979bb3fe", "prob": 0.018518511159599012, "text": "The Trial, Franz Kafka", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.2959956504929761, "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.68777582778527, "textFts": "'franz':3 'kafka':4 'trial':2", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1645875996753, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.288", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 2.1548812985715218, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "da6ad8dbae7c", "prob": 0.1441776577041168, "text": "Rationality: A-Z", "index": 7, "poolNo": 4.518993737403406, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.824238004350516, "textFts": "'a-z':2 'ration':1 'z':4", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1646069436406, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 11.009930224678012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ba215465cabe", "prob": 0.19297756805142613, "text": "mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus", "index": 8, "poolNo": 7.206162332021378, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.135806502931633, "textFts": "'asmodeus':8 'chao':3 'investor':2 'mad':1 'woman':6", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1646070012147, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.288", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 14.736468833017998, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7b21da36d4cd", "prob": 0.02285357474960696, "text": "Hyperion - Dan Simmons", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.40669485062946625, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.388982853422533, "textFts": "'dan':2 'hyperion':1 'simmon':3", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1646082505608, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6593250617724467, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "49c65f118d63", "prob": 0.0229880150109301, "text": "Principles - Ray Dalio", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.4103170341917455, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.438854979862196, "textFts": "'dalio':3 'principl':1 'ray':2", "contractId": "h4gLvQNRk2374uLrZSQY", "createdTime": 1646082738752, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646141575000, "totalLiquidity": 2.674969019453685, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659016381694}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659016384408}] | ["books", "recommendations"] | 1646082854478 | {"55a99fbe2ef3": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004699214755243681 | AR0kSxiOxeyVhGPrDhPl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004699214755243681 | will-biden-give-a-formal-oval-offic | 319.662772184893 | {"NO": 201.1995029406143, "YES": 17.137724874492733} | Will Biden give a formal Oval Office address before the end of February? | 1646110740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 207.5, "YES": 9.5} | 0 | 4.8208975608745295 | True | play | NO | public | 1645479677482 | David Glidden | Resolves to Yes if Biden gives a formal address to the nation from the White House Oval Office before the end of February 2022. It does not have to be about Russia/Ukraine, but at time of writing likely would be (if it happens at all).
Inspired by this tweet (limited access): https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1495853413866905605 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 217.82461459897405, "YES": 14.967264287437438} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646137294475 | 100 | dglid | 1645479677482 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 14 | 1715657705373 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475063}] | ["politics-default"] | 1646102681970 | 0.004699214755243681 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DXN0Zg58N1wkCELsl2Nk | given-my-mal-page-what-anime-would | 100 | Given my MAL page, what Anime would I enjoy watching. ai f | 1646089140000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645480589784 | Arie Arie | https://myanimelist.net/animelist/monkaap?status=7
I will try every suggestion (but no guarantees how long I will stick with it)
This market will resolve as the one I enjoy the most.
Ones listed as "Watching"are actually on hold.
Submission can be any show listed on MyAnimeList. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645480620001 | 220 | ArieArie | 1645480589784 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e27acceee336", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DXN0Zg58N1wkCELsl2Nk", "createdTime": 1645480590091, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.444", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645480620000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v | given-my-mal-page-which-anime-would | 233 | Given My MAL Page. Which anime would I enjoy the most. | 1648504740000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.809150562900114 | True | play | ab09abeac0d2 | public | 1645480905305 | Arie Arie | https://myanimelist.net/animelist/monkaap?status=7
Maybe be any show listed as an anime on Myanimelist that is not currently anywhere on my MAL list (including on my plan-to-watch).
I will try (but may not finish) all suggestions and resolve to the one I enjoyed the most. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.92, "platformFee": 1.98, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649361862410 | 380 | ArieArie | 1645480905305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "79bbc5bf4996", "prob": 0.18419937740610437, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.503195923457389, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.517604425400435, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645480905508, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.645", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649361862000, "totalLiquidity": 22.103925288732526, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "27d2284aa52a", "prob": 0.19477242166921477, "text": "Dennou Coil", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.32681298830981, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.36406561225301, "textFts": "'coil':2 'dennou':1", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645481398259, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.647", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649361862000, "totalLiquidity": 31.163587467074365, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ab09abeac0d2", "prob": 0.20252721545801172, "text": "Kakegurui", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.33003572148041, "userId": "jA88eQKY85NVRgHeyRfONCV0t732", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.30127935659598, "textFts": "'kakegurui':1", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645490453659, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.645", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649361862000, "totalLiquidity": 32.40435447328188, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2dbc3542cfe1", "prob": 0.21477647405551767, "text": "Erased (Boku dake ga Inai Machi)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 17.972289007155762, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.70675026466922, "textFts": "'boku':2 'dake':3 'eras':1 'ga':4 'inai':5 'machi':6", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645495895224, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.645", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649361862000, "totalLiquidity": 34.36423584888283, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dc5fbcb5d4c2", "prob": 0.2037245114111514, "text": "From the New World (Shinsekai Yori)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 16.48744031566335, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.44263629347297, "textFts": "'new':3 'shinsekai':5 'world':4 'yori':6", "contractId": "JKYARdCh6Y1uoUdrXG4v", "createdTime": 1645504982182, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.646", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649361862000, "totalLiquidity": 32.595921825784224, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"ab09abeac0d2": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35240839587175304 | DgJF73pnRn5lBaCmtDnS | {"NO": 34.27990073767387, "YES": 729.4662877042008} | 0 | trump-launched-his-social-media-pla | 878.2773274583242 | {"NO": 143.72267254167576, "YES": 95} | Trump launched his social media platform Trump Social today (https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/tech/trump-truth-social-app-store/index.html), will it get removed from the app store? | 1656993540000 | w3y3yefIy7g1D1TxxZRHjG1BrDm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 144, "YES": 95} | 0 | 4.072769203346618 | True | play | NO | public | 1645482107694 | Lars Erik Schonander | The market resolves to YES if the app get's removed from the app store (defined as Apple and Google's)
The market resolves to NO if by the date past it does not get removed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.07759325669724, "YES": 141.75750421229912} | {"creatorFee": 3.8249891168078887, "platformFee": 0.058255364201742876, "liquidityFee": 0.3495321852104572} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1680911063279 | 100.34953218521046 | LarsErikSchonander | 1680911059854 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjhyd4JlQ3ByXTEY5bYS5J5uSL87lCXZrJDqTheVw=s96-c | 15 | 1650313856342 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477851}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664330891544}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892351}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "donald-trump"] | 1656917289205 | 1680911057621 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3027334387073808 | ShUdolFvlZ7ul6gBBpnc | {"NO": 291.7871436647474, "YES": 5473.015459613775} | 0 | will-spacex-launch-a-starship-into | 13700.208497312482 | {"NO": 429.34973709003117, "YES": 882.5465794647826} | Will SpaceX Launch a Starship into orbit this year (2022). | 1672550158710 | wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 412.8, "YES": 883.2} | 0 | 0.9994121128105786 | True | play | NO | public | 1645482249892 | Samuel Millerick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when a Starship enters orbit or by the end of the year. Apr 30, 9:36pm: For clarification a complete orbit is necessary. So the 3/4 orbital Starship orbital test flight as planned would not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 756.5641324132644, "YES": 1071.7673640904945} | {"creatorFee": 29.76678559753719, "platformFee": 0.8123947352756008, "liquidityFee": 4.845296184330937} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1672550158710 | 754.8452961843309 | SamuelMillerick | 1710451923822 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c | 115 | 1650314599434 | 0 | 102 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["spacex", "space", "science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1672545270992 | 1672284515446 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4979191797527036 | 430cOr5w2kXxE1NCNSym | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4979191797527036 | will-i-choose-to-resolve-this-marke | 116 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 58} | Will I choose to resolve this market as "YES"? | 1646121540000 | JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 58} | 0 | 4.972221975589825 | True | play | YES | public | 1645483302990 | D. Kingsley | After this market closes, will I decide to resolve it as "YES" or "NO"? Feel free to contact me with thoughts or suggestions!
Feb 21, 2:41pm: This market resolves as YES if I choose to resolve it as YES, and as NO if I choose not to resolve it as YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 82.19559599212113, "YES": 81.85423630148901} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646155275222 | 100 | DKingsley | 1645483302990 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c | 7 | 1715656961522 | 0 | 1 | 0.4979191797527036 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7657902140647466 | u04dw5RlWAntzWAKZXmS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7657902140647466 | will-1-usd-be-worth-at-least-100-ru | 4854.853965600619 | {"NO": 1034.6674993305116, "YES": 1614.4785350688694} | Will 1 USD be worth at least 100 Russian rubles by March 1st 2022? | 1646130070110 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1030, "YES": 1591} | 0 | 4.633815116744987 | True | play | NO | public | 1645483840001 | JuJumper | According to the Russian Central Bank, as reported at https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/
Feb 28, 10:55pm: I believe fair interpretation of the original wordings would be CB rate published on March 1st 11.30 MSK for the March 2nd.
Mar 1, 2:25pm: new rate was not published on time; waiting for it to resolve this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1615.599933371701, "YES": 2099.480141643733} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646130070110 | 100 | JuJumper | 1645483840001 | 0 | 40 | 1715658822741 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509466}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576865}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 1646129854276 | 0.7657902140647466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | QGV2dJfNy3K53YeS06o8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | will-hans-zimmer-win-best-score-at | 25 | {"NO": 18.75, "YES": 6.25} | Will Hans Zimmer win Best Score at the Academy Awards?Ent | 1648428675821 | I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18.75, "YES": 6.25} | 0 | 5.700548750959896 | True | play | YES | public | 1645484282322 | ben truitt | Hans Zimmer wins the oscar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.651501120014753, "YES": 12.5005} | {"creatorFee": 0.75, "platformFee": 0.1875, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648428675821 | 100 | bentruitt | 1645484282322 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c | 1 | 1715658136475 | 0 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17699017339572554 | gYC0L3XWIeQE75EfKVqU | {"NO": 119.04918118085132, "YES": 770.924783648633} | 0 | will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2 | 10181.046798916357 | {"NO": 1043.1722926825607, "YES": 1194.0512485599897} | Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1210, "YES": 1161} | 0 | 3.516331298156795 | True | play | NO | public | 1645485093911 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1784.6319104058343, "YES": 1349.171075994131} | {"creatorFee": 19.724221120382232, "platformFee": 2.5077833224315653, "liquidityFee": 4.934515544392773} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1674476413327 | 184.9345155443928 | GustavoLacerda | 1674463887384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 83 | 1650314708383 | 0 | 5 | 78 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670519793}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662315622754}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499025}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225142}] | ["politics-default", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671573558925 | 1674463882540 | False | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13219693830530632 | nd0ACNyuPatV7SKpMt8C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.13219693830530632 | will-richardngo-win-the-contest-for | 123 | {"NO": 103, "YES": 20} | Will Richard_Ngo win the "Contest for outlining rules for this contest"? | 1646726340000 | kzTzAuoOi0ezsKFnwEtyktezUSJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 103, "YES": 20} | 0 | 6.042030121658019 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645486205597 | Data Generating Process | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zgXXxoKHDknAzCWPu/contest-for-outlining-rules-for-this-contest | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 114.58274739593219, "YES": 44.721806763591296} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1671492149123 | 100 | datagenproc | 1645486205597 | 0 | 3 | 1650314754592 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.13 |
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