p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.02132505369528313 | lqfjjFNQg1dJjtcLs4R2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02132505369528313 | will-russia-control-lviv-by-april-1 | 15409.95391784819 | {"NO": 10349.979813578168, "YES": 1432.066268573647} | Will Russia control Lviv by April 1st? | 1648789140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10435, "YES": 1330} | 0 | 4.619355102938407 | True | play | NO | public | 1645674817426 | SG | Resolves YES if Russia has de facto control of Lviv by April 1st, 2022. Official annexation not necessary. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11655.74370359982, "YES": 1720.5441470753617} | {"creatorFee": 53.88184328607254, "platformFee": 13.470460821518135, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648792123179 | 100 | SG | 1645674817426 | 0 | 70 | 1715658631833 | 0 | 1 | 1647294457127 | 0.02132505369528313 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3833452558919155 | E5VBd81Fe3enV5IN2bH7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3833452558919155 | will-the-major-flareup-in-russiaukr | 29048.792948941067 | {"NO": 2557.5498320176375, "YES": 2199.6572190412903} | Will the "major flare-up in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% on March 1 | 1646110740000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3300, "YES": 2001} | 0 | 4.625574940331276 | True | play | NO | public | 1645674891877 | Gabrielle | Will the "6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% or greater on March 1?
At the time of creating this market, it needs a YES bet of M$669 or greater to bring the prediction to 99%.
Decided by the market value at 00:00 EST on March 1, 2022.
https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse
Feb 28, 10:24am: Just FYI, I do not hold any non-ANTE shares (other than M$1 for comments that I immediately resold) of this market and I do not hold any shares of the target market. I am also precommitting to not buying any more shares of this market (again, other than the M$1 for comments) or the target market
Feb 28, 10:13pm: More precise resolution criteria: using the API endpoint for the market (https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/Xydcz7oCHIoab5u0PQJW), check if the probAfter >= 0.99 for the last trade with created time less than or equal to 1646110800000
Mar 1, 12:11am: The final probability was 0.977, with a sale of M$51 of YES shares at 23:59:59.368. Very impressive showing here though, the probability ranged from 92% to 100% within the five minutes before midnight! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3735.710247359208, "YES": 2945.4197305028256} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646111795771 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1645674891877 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 41 | 1715657808584 | 0 | 1646096341622 | 0.3833452558919155 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | uNQEng7S2W14hG4GbH7j | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | will-the-department-of-housing-and | 100 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 15} | Will the department of Housing and Urban Development update the page titled "Section 184 - Maximum loan limit by county" be updated by July 31, 2022? | 1656658740000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 15} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645675071282 | Luna Nova | The document in question is this one: https://www.hud.gov/sites/dfiles/OCHCO/documents/2020-15pihn2.pdf
That document can be found on this page: https://www.hud.gov/section184
The last time this document was updated was July 17, 2020.
The last time this document was updated before that was July 11, 2019, per archive.org: https://web.archive.org/web/20200606235628/https://www.hud.gov/section184
I don't know of any archiving of the hud.gov/section184 page that goes back to before 2020. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.19636652737461, "YES": 38.73022076040879} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645675358211 | 100 | LunaNova | 1645675071282 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 1 | 1715658828704 | 0 | [{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769999}] | ["housing-markets"] | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | Nn1dMVYafian9HdzmDKt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-department-of-housing-and-06068c44cc46 | 100 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 15} | Will the department of Housing and Urban Development update the page titled "Section 184 - Maximum loan limit by county" by July 31, 2022? | 1656658740000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 15} | 0 | 5.436448474979962 | True | play | NO | public | 1645675405647 | Luna Nova | The document in question is this one: https://www.hud.gov/sites/dfiles/OCHCO/documents/2020-15pihn2.pdf
That document can be found on this page: https://www.hud.gov/section184
The last time this document was updated was July 17, 2020.
The last time this document was updated before that was July 11, 2019, per archive.org: https://web.archive.org/web/20200606235628/https://www.hud.gov/section184
I don't know of any archiving of the hud.gov/section184 page that goes back to before 2020.
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.19636652737461, "YES": 38.73022076040879} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1672623840851 | 100 | LunaNova | 1645675405647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 1 | 1650314559503 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769997}] | ["housing-markets"] | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3 | what-new-products-or-features-will | 539 | What new products or features will be announced at WWDC 2022? | 1654055940000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.704385809991228 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645677244986 | Gabrielle | Any new products or features for existing products that were announced at the WWDC 2022 keynote address will be selected as correct answers | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.75999999999999, "platformFee": 2.1899999999999973, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654541440218 | 920 | Gabrielle | 1653953452589 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e2761bd43e43", "prob": 0.03493754913092847, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3722622276211787, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.282813382466006, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645677245249, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.521", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9565027513319941, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a721d2b9ca48", "prob": 0.019540571228928293, "text": "AR/VR Headset", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.4855162130504961, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.361055945071843, "textFts": "'ar/vr':1 'headset':2", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645677300697, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.52", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 3.4391405362913794, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ad9d6fd19508", "prob": 0.003930474277229452, "text": "CarPlay control of other car functionality (eg. climate control, seat positioning)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.013826448424679933, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.503929285223333, "textFts": "'car':5 'carplay':1 'climat':8 'control':2,9 'eg':7 'function':6 'posit':11 'seat':10", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645677348095, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.52", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2201065595248493, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6ba9f2c22a95", "prob": 0.0008070573849244476, "text": "Apple Car", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0012844581887407757, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.5902482044620319, "textFts": "'appl':1 'car':2", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645677373778, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.52", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04519521355576907, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f6570a60c7e8", "prob": 0.015320115293912135, "text": "M2 CPU", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.10701226206423473, "userId": "7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.878069769711268, "textFts": "'cpu':2 'm2':1", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645708643201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.52", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8579264564590795, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "59c331887b0f", "prob": 0.21799283780242815, "text": "iOS 16", "index": 5, "poolNo": 24.86060671957382, "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.18262043500613, "textFts": "'16':2 'io':1", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1645801345726, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": 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"poolNo": 0.3576704910218624, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.153031387082098, "textFts": "'notif':3 'updat':1", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1649619354637, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.552", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9056336797973619, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d5427f0ec2c5", "prob": 0.03841383526945584, "text": "New health tracking features", "index": 19, "poolNo": 0.7370698293322203, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.450543804193455, "textFts": "'featur':4 'health':2 'new':1 'track':3", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1649619363968, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.552", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6877281858677606, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5b667dfa122c", "prob": 0.0036928989431391397, "text": "MacBook Air", "index": 20, "poolNo": 0.012590487582907066, "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.3967872876465863, "textFts": "'air':2 'macbook':1", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1652071263734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.552", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20680234081579182, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ee9942c17a0e", "prob": 0.0037068739627915096, "text": "An AR/VR OS", "index": 21, "poolNo": 0.012662113142456364, "userId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.4031845731907886, "textFts": "'ar/vr':2 'os':3", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1653924739190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.557", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20758494191632454, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "092ca379a78d", "prob": 0.0037208489824438824, "text": "Interactive iOS widgets", "index": 22, "poolNo": 0.01273387468443055, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.409569676067808, "textFts": "'interact':1 'io':2 'widget':3", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1653953417566, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.551", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20836754301685742, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "30361faf071b", "prob": 0.003727836492270067, "text": "New iPhone lock screen", "index": 23, "poolNo": 0.012769806370381569, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.41275768037982, "textFts": "'iphon':2 'lock':3 'new':1 'screen':4", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1653953437844, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20875884356712376, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b372fd14d0ba", "prob": 0.0037348240020962536, "text": "Always-on iPhone", "index": 24, "poolNo": 0.012805771957982142, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.41594266459341, "textFts": "'alway':2 'always-on':1 'iphon':4", "contractId": "7ASRrgNtEBuS7RDWUfk3", "createdTime": 1653953451105, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.551", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654541440000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2091501441173902, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1653953451105 | 1649619385704 | {"092ca379a78d": 0.5535976047157163, "210e737142da": 5.449167784258079, "30361faf071b": 0.5546372246306753, "58d8341dac4f": 17.97502832964269, "59c331887b0f": 32.433542296936245, "5b667dfa122c": 0.5494391250558799, "732d47c6b313": 5.062948985850774, "a9fc0c1f9ab4": 12.394868436099767, "ad9d6fd19508": 0.5847862021644888, "b17af545d656": 0.4891411699882524, "d5427f0ec2c5": 5.715310482487604, "f6570a60c7e8": 2.2793666635478083, "f8035a124e35": 15.95816569462205} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04404303014554403 | 8YnxvW4uWPnA8CcR2TKf | {"NO": 97.29228128503345, "YES": 189.99384933682404} | 0 | will-russia-lose-its-permanent-seat | 672.826470799584 | {"NO": 509, "YES": 24.04107504938014} | Will Russia lose its permanent seat on the UN security council by September 1st? | 1662101940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 509, "YES": 24} | 0 | 9.48247312386457 | True | play | NO | public | 1645681849595 | Mike Blume | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 521.1686915181753, "YES": 111.87961724184683} | {"creatorFee": 0.2231120958641307, "platformFee": 0.01690145633044216, "liquidityFee": 0.10140873798265294} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1662687320481 | 100.10140873798265 | MichaelBlume | 1662409850627 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 23 | 1650313820650 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1662099515088 | 1662409812927 | 0.023048916289158637 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.037219508798567696 | PQiPxqrwgce1ShisXJ82 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.037219508798567696 | will-russia-invade-moldova-before-m | 798.7167918397257 | {"NO": 709, "YES": 54.28320816027434} | Will Russia invade Moldova before May 2022? | 1646152277842 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 709, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.678530447940242 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645683418044 | Chan Bae | This market resolves to 'Yes' if media consensus is that Russian troops have entered Moldova before the 1st of May, 2022, as decided by me. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 748.944986658066, "YES": 147.2555241293393} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646152277842 | 100 | ChanBae | 1645683418044 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 13 | 1715658114998 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484869}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226605}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646067070982 | False | 0.037219508798567696 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | PWT3CcsVp3PZTbIWjXaK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-russian-control-kharkiv-on-mar | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will Russian control Kharkiv on March 11th? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645683705492 | Charles Vorbach | Resolves to YES if there is no organized resistance inside the city on March 11th. If there is only uncoordinated guerrilla resistance then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645683733317 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645683705492 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 1 | 1715658118989 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | AGFaMRaMeoA2SKvNuvPC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-russia-control-kharkiv-on-marc | 100 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | Will Russia control Kharkiv on March 11th? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645683839337 | Charles Vorbach | Resolves to YES if there is no organized resistance inside the city on March 11th. If there is only uncoordinated guerrilla resistance then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 31.623092829449813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645683861499 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645683839337 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 1 | 1715657693974 | 0 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XivKjfhviwUVJWk6EWIk | when-will-sytse-be-back-in-the-tych | 100 | When will Sytse be back in the Tyche kletskoppen group | 1648763940000 | QoYmDNSaMmQL8AgMZ8OkbfoTZZf1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645694197955 | Lucas Nostradamus | I will resolve any anwser that gets the date right as correct.
Feb 24, 12:47pm: Sytse already was back on feb 24, before any predictions were made. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645703293269 | 220 | LucasNostradamus | 1645694197955 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxQXVxb5HYYo3rWypjnEXJf6DY1l_DwEfUcCRsM=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cc0f087ce3b3", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "QoYmDNSaMmQL8AgMZ8OkbfoTZZf1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XivKjfhviwUVJWk6EWIk", "createdTime": 1645694198192, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.079", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645703293000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5867693470049301 | nvDx5YzNFFjIrrg2UAce | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5867693470049301 | will-sinlnpoolsize-0-after-market-c | 11 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | Will sin(ln(poolsize)) > 0 after market close? | 1646312340000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.2917399635737015 | True | play | YES | public | 1645694375044 | Undox | sin of natural log of pool size in M. Interesting experiment to see if there is a whale fight.
sin in radians of course
Feb 25, 11:27am: I screwed up the math on this! In the sense that it isn't interesting it just means "will the pool be > 1174, because the next 'cycle' is in the millions. And plenty of those kinda questions around. I will close, give this trader their profit and move on! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645749447002 | 100 | Undox | 1645694375044 | 0 | 2 | 1715658668520 | 0 | 0.5867693470049301 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.88456063350644 | QNgsKrds0RgrSUhOUlUT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.88456063350644 | will-the-first-digit-of-the-pool-si | 3900.482900588196 | {"NO": 412.5305984060989, "YES": 1022.9865010057047} | Will the first digit of the pool size be a 1? | 1646312340000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 407, "YES": 1029} | 0 | 4.64934656842294 | True | play | YES | public | 1645695261444 | Undox | I know Benford’s Law but I also know what whales can do! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 487.73692958351785, "YES": 1350.12032843718} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646334298577 | 100 | Undox | 1645695261444 | 0 | 30 | 1715658144167 | 0 | 1 | 1645888655179 | 0.88456063350644 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11435196229709349 | 8OkY4BOnO4yJ3eOm3qHN | {"NO": 165.95092221667943, "YES": 731.9197017512716} | 0 | will-a-new-3d-the-legend-of-zelda-g | 1021.8681640711579 | {"NO": 301.2242942631782, "YES": 130.25854245491155} | Will a new 3D The Legend of Zelda game be released in 2022? | 1672531140000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 290.5, "YES": 111.5} | 0 | 4.0842706897970045 | True | play | NO | public | 1645695344898 | nic | Nintendo announced in 2019 that a sequel to Breath of the Wild is in the works. Will it be released this year? This question will resolve YES for any main series 3D Legend of Zelda game that is released. So no Hyrule Warriors and remakes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 388.2898447734628, "YES": 188.17358421086445} | {"creatorFee": 1.277997505259048, "platformFee": 0.1976945929902436, "liquidityFee": 1.1455232198027503} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1672963896409 | 201.14552321980273 | nic_kup | 1672121934947 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 23 | 1650313818373 | 0 | 2 | 22 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459118}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665609682258}] | ["nintendo", "gaming"] | 1672121934783 | 1646935123262 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35362396049583794 | ut8RjS2j9ubYTl4YeTSk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.35362396049583794 | will-the-pool-size-be-divisible-by | 355.854597642553 | {"NO": 172.96327208490385, "YES": 83.18213027254315} | Will the pool size be divisible by 3 on close | 1646312340000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 174.7, "YES": 87.3} | 0 | 4.793116545555055 | True | play | NO | public | 1645695360531 | Undox | Mar 4, 6:02am: Just the one prime factor…. nice! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 205.9353418887706, "YES": 152.3207615586867} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646334244349 | 100 | Undox | 1645695360531 | 0 | 17 | 1715658839177 | 0 | 1 | 1646261566774 | 0.35362396049583794 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9796012649900397 | QzXFnaJlZyKApVXE51rn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9796012649900397 | will-john-beshir-still-hold-the-top-bd1517e80107 | 6907.229965325447 | {"NO": 397.23532584039975, "YES": 1887.1261833424928} | Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC time. | 1648767540000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 232, "YES": 2097} | 0 | 4.636767672151668 | True | play | YES | public | 1645704030644 | nic | This market resolves YES if on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC John Beshir holds the #1 spot on the leaderboards as Top Trader. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 326.26211116792905, "YES": 2260.9434110955995} | {"creatorFee": 15.79750855209759, "platformFee": 3.9493771380243974, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648770620464 | 100 | nic_kup | 1645704030644 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 18 | 1715658157315 | 0 | 1 | 1646673861434 | 0.9796012649900397 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9472901192231995 | TX1bMPumCQrHb4Idps4G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9472901192231995 | will-ukraine-score-higher-in-the-20 | 77 | {"NO": 12.5, "YES": 64.5} | Will Ukraine score higher in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest than Russia? | 1652479140000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12.5, "YES": 64.5} | 0 | 5.1129538850443765 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645707735593 | hagi | The Question will be unresolvable if one country doesn't participate.
---
KALUSH ORCHESTRA – Stefania for Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foqgjD_SNss
Russia has not yet selected their act
Close date updated to 2022-05-13 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 5:34pm: The EBU banned Russia from participation, so I'll resolve as N/A. https://twitter.com/EBU_HQ/status/1497243831112122368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497243831112122368%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2F2022-01%2Fkrieg-ukraine-russland-news-liveblog | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 17.678376636444874, "YES": 74.94417255864528} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645806908886 | 100 | hagi | 1645707735593 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 3 | 1715658208833 | 0 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544462}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227077}] | ["culture-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.9472901192231995 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09504714479459068 | lP3xizyJeTuCUun0mNEj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09504714479459068 | will-russia-participate-in-the-2022 | 22 | {"NO": 18.5, "YES": 3.5} | Will Russia participate in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? | 1652479140000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18.5, "YES": 3.5} | 0 | 5.785161119043018 | True | play | NO | public | 1645709198034 | hagi | Close date updated to 2022-05-13 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 5:31pm: The EBU banned Russia from participation: https://twitter.com/EBU_HQ/status/1497243831112122368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497243831112122368%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2F2022-01%2Fkrieg-ukraine-russland-news-liveblog | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 20.929333499899133, "YES": 6.78284602876993} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1645806836773 | 100 | hagi | 1645709198034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 4 | 1715658620073 | 0 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547014}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227076}] | ["culture-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.09504714479459068 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024131673306549428 | XDWWLAJkbNVrmI8w4uMR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.024131673306549428 | will-the-contract-price-for-wti-cru | 232.76925813018843 | {"NO": 171.7, "YES": 25.530741869811564} | Will the contract price for WTI Crude Oil exceed $150 USD per barrel by March 15th, 2022 | 1647354759644 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 171.7, "YES": 8.299999999999997} | 0 | 4.840555718523944 | True | play | NO | public | 1645710026807 | Patrick Delaney | https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 196.83074810778422, "YES": 12.570465398305668} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1647354759644 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645710026807 | 0 | 8 | 1715658288240 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571551}] | ["economics-default"] | 1646243291765 | 0.024131673306549428 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.146183809126556 | HTqOqctWjiXA0HJajwg0 | {"NO": 91.05828765321621, "YES": 184.28047349516828} | 0 | will-germany-finish-in-the-top-half | 516.7710997355398 | {"NO": 156.57981310205395, "YES": 55.060957801613} | Will Germany finish in the top half of the Eurovision 2022 contestants? | 1652479140000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 163, "YES": 51} | 0 | 5.577222722087649 | True | play | NO | public | 1645710514500 | hagi |
Close date updated to 2022-05-13 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 195.52161998273408, "YES": 81.01564855364416} | {"creatorFee": 0.5361696404352574, "platformFee": 0.09485856394723013, "liquidityFee": 0.4702061539390104} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1652596742679 | 100.470206153939 | hagi | 1652303575644 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 10 | 1650313880944 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542665}] | ["culture-default"] | 1652303575496 | 1646961510859 | 0.07800188217336179 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.028501818550354666 | oCJnL3UGQFjeIUUWafPd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.028501818550354666 | will-rbuttcoin-on-reddit-reach-100k | 340.60977341776476 | {"NO": 253.6533492309338, "YES": 37.90328379087417} | Will r/buttcoin on reddit reach 100k or more subscribers before the 1st of April (UST) 2022? | 1648763940000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 256.5, "YES": 37.5} | 0 | 4.7731486011589155 | True | play | NO | public | 1645711491089 | hagi | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 287.3726360750376, "YES": 49.22216379399893} | {"creatorFee": 1.4917404149243754, "platformFee": 0.37293510373109384, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1649159195008 | 100 | hagi | 1645711491089 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 9 | 1715658674036 | 0 | 1 | 1648392552313 | 0.028501818550354666 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9261042107739137 | ji5VFRTYpGo54c1468hr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9261042107739137 | will-i-pass-the-open-book-exam-in-t | 218.19926403828106 | {"NO": 35.80073596171895, "YES": 170} | Will I pass the open book exam in "Theories of theater from the 18th to the 20th century" I participated in yesterday without ever visiting the lecture or learning for it? | 1646961108277 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 170} | 0 | 4.832136088565555 | True | play | YES | public | 1645712429080 | hagi | This market resolves yes if I happen to pass that exam.
Mar 10, 1:49am: They do take surprisingly much time to give us our grades, especially given the fact that the test was conducted on their web platform. There is a >0% chance that our old professor is printing them all out and typing the results in his database though.
Mar 11, 2:09am: Got a 3.0 with 1.0 being the best and being 4.0 the last grade that passes. So hooray for me, even if I lost 2 fun bucks here :D | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.94469103298164, "YES": 198.05187721928135} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646961108277 | 100 | hagi | 1645712429080 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 7 | 1715658582927 | 0 | 0.9261042107739137 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | cRNShphgHOJ11wsHGlwL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-the-ukrainianrussian-war-escal | 100 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | Will the Ukrainian-Russian war escalate by March 31st? | 1648785540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645718647848 | Charles Vorbach | This market asks if the current war will remain overwhelmingly a conflict between its current participants Russia, Belarus, the separatist republics, CSTO members and Ukraine.
The market will resolve to NO if a party not currently a member to the war, for example Turkey or Poland, is widely recognized to have launched attacks in Ukraine or have been attacked by current participants. These attacks could be long range such as missile or drone strikes. Acts which might be unintentional or collateral, such as the destruction of MH17, would cause this market to resolve to NO if they occurred outside the territory of current participants.
Simply providing material, intelligence, or weapons to participants still causes this question to resolve to YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1645718726796 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645718647848 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 1 | 1715658429311 | 0 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8133849000051392 | gLKshNp5gV9exTrNckCA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8133849000051392 | will-the-ukrainianrussian-war-escal-522fcf103668 | 1679.9830681152416 | {"NO": 360, "YES": 982.0169318847584} | Will the Ukrainian-Russian war escalate by March 31st? | 1648785540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 360, "YES": 946} | 0 | 4.65168718265794 | True | play | YES | public | 1645718931478 | Charles Vorbach | This market asks if the current war will grow beyond its current participants Russia, Belarus, the separatist republics, CSTO members and Ukraine.
The market will resolve to YES if a party not currently a member to the war, for example Turkey or Poland, is widely recognized to have launched attacks in Ukraine or have been attacked by current participants. These attacks could be long range such as missile or drone strikes. Acts which might be unintentional or collateral, such as the destruction of MH17, would cause this market to resolve to YES if they occurred outside the territory of current participants.
A party simply providing material, intelligence, or weapons to participants still causes this question to resolve to NO.
Feb 26, 1:08am: I'm going to consider the territorial waters of Ukraine part of the territory of current participants. An attack on shipping would qualify if it occurred more than 12 miles off the coast. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 579.7379223741061, "YES": 1210.3371723869338} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1646074645211 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645718931478 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 24 | 1715658519623 | 0 | 1646067846265 | 0.8133849000051392 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03867078380343783 | NnkKNigOhBghLDxOyUUg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03867078380343783 | will-ravel-kopelmans-question-about | 894.4436112995581 | {"NO": 270.63868794961155, "YES": 44.91770075083042} | Will Ravel Kopelman’s question about whether Dr P’s question will resolve correctly resolve in the same way as Dr P’s question? | 1646671497786 | Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 300, "YES": 9} | 0 | 4.761986830769445 | True | play | NO | public | 1645722655780 | Ferruginous Duck | Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 8:05am: For example, if they both resolve YES, this question resolves YES. If Dr P resolves NO and Ravel Kopelman resolves YES, this question resolves NO.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm
Feb 28, 9:30am: if Ravel Kopelman resolves before Dr P (e.g. as N/A), I will consider that to mean that Dr P’s question will remain unresolved, and so my question will resolve YES.
Feb 28, 12:50pm: Hang on, my last update doesn’t make much sense. I should resolve NO in that case since the questions didn’t resolve the same. I feel suitably foolish. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 309.39580732732543, "YES": 62.05400850641585} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646671497786 | 100 | FerruginousDuck | 1645722655780 | 0 | 10 | 1715658063986 | 0 | 1 | 1645916145247 | 0.03867078380343783 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5445747841284806 | omAeMx5eqiIgBez56PXw | {"NO": 105.48276866554009, "YES": 136.9025367866473} | 1 | will-published-performance-on-gsm8k | 134.2685432520563 | {"NO": 16.5, "YES": 18.5} | Will published performance on GSM8K-test exceed 90% by 1st April 2023? | 1678877701195 | UuynaBbgsTZhue3qFPVlQs1Hk7q1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 16.5, "YES": 18.5} | 0 | 2.428572829942418 | True | play | YES | public | 1645723065685 | N McA | https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14168
https://paperswithcode.com/dataset/gsm8k
State-of-the-art language models can match human performance on many tasks, but they still struggle to robustly perform multi-step mathematical reasoning. To diagnose the failures of current models and support research, we introduce GSM8K, a dataset of 8.5K high quality linguistically diverse grade school math word problems. We find that even the largest transformer models fail to achieve high test performance, despite the conceptual simplicity of this problem distribution. To increase performance, we propose training verifiers to judge the correctness of model completions. At test time, we generate many candidate solutions and select the one ranked highest by the verifier. We demonstrate that verification significantly improves performance on GSM8K, and we provide strong empirical evidence that verification scales more effectively with increased data than a finetuning baseline. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.238610116571085, "YES": 26.173211511963906} | {"creatorFee": 0.8917901398131912, "platformFee": 0.14863168996886522, "liquidityFee": 0.8917901398131912} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1678877701195 | 120.8917901398132 | NMcA | 1678877748481 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJytqpMQv4MxGaEtLP2ASmqhCymKa2t_fvV4k0Ql=s96-c | 8 | 1650314760482 | 0 | 8 | 1677622977000 | 1678877745921 | 0.48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.660595352969633 | 7EBX7bWMuoW1KZOkEQJG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.660595352969633 | will-people-be-tired-of-the-will-th | 1031.7545025283684 | {"NO": 165.4527659551194, "YES": 408.79273151651205} | Will people be tired of the "will this market have $X invested by Y" spam before the ides of March? | 1647382260000 | tPWTREoGAYQDRDU5if09l7OgFWY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 167, "YES": 426} | 0 | 4.69853741063123 | True | play | YES | public | 1645724423776 | oerpli | Resolves to majority. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 334.54708267779785, "YES": 466.7304246888251} | {"creatorFee": 5.929819898865254, "platformFee": 1.4824549747163136, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648539345019 | 100 | oerpli | 1645724423776 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhpX9PQdPpByylJbq2XPagtr7Xug6lYJoLAdIfxRY8=s96-c | 32 | 1715657619161 | 0 | 1 | 1647376165934 | 0.660595352969633 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012024899984169904 | wdMfMYx3eQNf0LhdKUI2 | {"NO": 180.01721724045677, "YES": 166.81109730312815} | 0 | will-taiwan-acquire-nuclear-weapons | 543.2946052708163 | {"NO": 248.96600279261, "YES": 6} | Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons by 2023? | 1672549140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 249, "YES": 6} | 0 | 10.101187813726806 | True | play | NO | public | 1645725831441 | Charles Vorbach | This market will resolve to YES if Taiwan is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons by the end of the year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 253.83687776410022, "YES": 23.979407832972026} | {"creatorFee": 0.14874965790325773, "platformFee": 0.0003399720739000145, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009899494936611666, "YES": 0.0001414213562373095} | 0 | 1672588399116 | 180 | CharlesVorbach | 1667458102615 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 22 | 1650314811331 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950138421}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125149}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ", "slug": "pacific-rim", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qlbzTuOA4oc125E1ZoiB", "createdTime": 1659006734542}] | ["taiwan", "nuclear-risk", "pacific-rim"] | 1667458102458 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im | i-liked-these-games-best-factorio-m | 463.33479361642065 | I liked these games best: Factorio, Minecraft, Kerbal Space Program, Garry's Mod, Terraria, Slay the Spire, Magicka, ... I didn't really like: Satisfactory or Dyson Sphere. I don't like racing games or shooters. What pc game will I like? | 1648677600000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.738927128679736 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645726226608 | Mr Stone | I will look up all games and definitely try the top one if it is <30 euro. I may try it when it is more. Multiple games can win.
Feb 26, 6:52am: one game per answer! Monster Train & Valheim will count as just Monster train. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.2145659854339765, "platformFee": 1.8036414963584941, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648829510803 | 1160.0000000000002 | stone | 1645726226608 | 0 | 24 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e66fa643fcc1", "prob": 0.0858345934070747, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.753435846658408, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.674643055546603, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645726226773, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 5.722306227138313, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "85cd27b9ceb9", "prob": 0.01328480586509108, "text": "They Are Billions", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.1644241608784129, "userId": "nsOLL5tvd6Wn5UBR5Arb0g85Tep2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.212434225172652, "textFts": "'billion':3", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645728631402, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4170459589430486, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7fc06a38c5b4", "prob": 0.05703361346253779, "text": "Stardew Valley", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.618273427862947, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.28927597864179, "textFts": "'stardew':1 'valley':2", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645729313944, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 10.646274513007054, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6eed1d29c05b", "prob": 0.012913378806096202, "text": "Space Engineers", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.21662751879895142, "userId": "XI6BM1RD2hZP4kczGJ9Ftu4peBl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.558805313442054, "textFts": "'engin':2 'space':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645734331184, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8939622248941095, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4c22ccba1f66", "prob": 0.07421955293094093, "text": "Valheim", "index": 4, "poolNo": 5.603923928723418, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.90076058396426, "textFts": "'valheim':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645739768081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 19.79188078158425, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "37d4fe2a367d", "prob": 0.10039358520520159, "text": "shapez.io", "index": 5, "poolNo": 8.943374277042937, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.13975049395651, "textFts": "'shapez.io':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645741143583, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 26.771622721387093, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "04c584fe6717", "prob": 0.005812285548640633, "text": "Orbiter 2010", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.04740399472301478, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.108422887199799, "textFts": "'2010':2 'orbit':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645760452713, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6199771251883343, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2f5f1e3c925", "prob": 0.0339917432784378, "text": "Griftlands", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.6801402262140495, "userId": "eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.32884315080172, "textFts": "'griftland':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645782208698, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.706", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 3.625785949700032, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f2d83c69d054", "prob": 0.02491747916547266, "text": "Starbound", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.4248779505983064, "userId": "FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.62652390978916, "textFts": "'starbound':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645786878704, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6578644443170836, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5f4f82dec4ae", "prob": 0.38550686881876794, "text": "Monster Train or Valheim ", "index": 9, "poolNo": 105.8526534355524, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 168.72780672562615, "textFts": "'monster':1 'train':2 'valheim':4", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645833439110, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 133.64238119050623, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "42a37fde692f", "prob": 0.01724215718549711, "text": "Storybook Brawl", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.15225546209431623, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.67816293951861, "textFts": "'brawl':2 'storybook':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1645834992102, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.706", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 1.1494771456998072, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b94c254941ad", "prob": 0.004007954756299724, "text": "Roblox", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.016949817308534926, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.21209425607905, "textFts": "'roblox':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1647286166802, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.706", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2671969837533149, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "58393147ac2c", "prob": 0.05734114833244751, "text": "Baba is you", "index": 12, "poolNo": 2.6399097277712396, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.39875194091041, "textFts": "'baba':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1647302303094, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.706", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 10.703681022056868, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bd286ab8ba1c", "prob": 0.02817231625842871, "text": "Noita", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.703510560722124, "userId": "6YNct3TSOCXUuSyoiPl3QTziAuu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.268186983374726, "textFts": "'noita':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1647883476630, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 4.131939717902877, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f239ea2e5186", "prob": 0.09932851697906554, "text": "Mindustry", "index": 14, "poolNo": 4.837925123793541, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.86838068779108, "textFts": "'mindustri':1", "contractId": "1gBATAW0wc7iFP8Ny4im", "createdTime": 1647905818884, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648829510000, "totalLiquidity": 14.568182490262945, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647957017598 | {"37d4fe2a367d": 8.765305242967308, "4c22ccba1f66": 17.530610485934616, "5f4f82dec4ae": 13.147957864450962, "6eed1d29c05b": 26.295915728901925, "7fc06a38c5b4": 21.91326310741827, "bd286ab8ba1c": 12.346947570326915} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14117962564720601 | Z17fguZPdoVzBk18HR9M | {"NO": 65.33053527378843, "YES": 1440.0808146730928} | 0 | will-the-us-open-its-borders-to-ukr | 7754.318556122419 | {"NO": 1157.8986283225177, "YES": 276.33350199554604} | Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022? | 1656658800000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1173, "YES": 266} | 0 | 6.654809102533727 | True | play | NO | public | 1645726478664 | Daniel Filan | Resolves according to my judgement. The spirit of the question is that basically any Ukrainian citizen who makes it to the US is allowed to stay at least as long as Russia is attacking or occupying Ukraine. Ireland's recent action would count: https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-ukraine-simon-coveney-5691785-Feb2022/
Timing is according to US Pacific Time.
Feb 24, 10:15am: I'm open to suggestions on how to operationalize. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1328.9441419713871, "YES": 539.3812562760069} | {"creatorFee": 3.800179139937482, "platformFee": 0.45137853359289715, "liquidityFee": 0.5503716933712383} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1658425323800 | 100.55037169337123 | DanielFilan | 1656634025871 | 0 | 47 | 1650314644803 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493063}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226791}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1656634025739 | 1648054317663 | False | 0.00740239510386918 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3306799044271931 | 0sx8X78rCVp8J6GyAofo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3306799044271931 | will-the-majority-of-ukrainians-int | 198.6905125456043 | {"NO": 134, "YES": 55.309487454395715} | Will the majority of Ukrainians Internet users lose Internet access for >72 hours straight by March 31? | 1646380740000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 134, "YES": 55} | 0 | 3.1317262547160576 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645726980799 | Gustavo Lacerda | Not entirely sure where to look up this information, but will try to be reasonable. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.8786683642436, "YES": 108.86256815792825} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1701499701719 | 100 | GustavoLacerda | 1704069880466 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 12 | 1650313769490 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779623563}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1704069879862 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15413852243693008 | GuYRksdNn0xHvIP5Tp9C | {"NO": 98.59676743218611, "YES": 800.6573530640779} | 0 | will-russia-attack-another-country | 4185.69015110945 | {"NO": 832.724311910033, "YES": 124} | Will Russia attack another country by July 1st 2022? | 1656658800000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 833, "YES": 124} | 0 | 4.6820520485627615 | True | play | NO | public | 1645727098806 | Daniel Filan | Resolved according to my judgement. Attack means a physical attack involving weapons. Has to be a country Russia is currently not engaged in hostilities in (so continued fighting in Ukraine or CAR don't count). Am open to help operationalizing.
Feb 24, 11:08am: If it were obvious to me that Russia had paid mercenaries to attack another country, and Russia were in control of those mercenaries, I would count that. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 914.5952933382276, "YES": 280.78242796320296} | {"creatorFee": 20.618464531682687, "platformFee": 3.4373297155803373, "liquidityFee": 20.607437008084005} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1658425155721 | 120.60743700808399 | DanielFilan | 1658425146683 | 0 | 53 | 1650313877722 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415324}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479578}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224307}] | ["politics-default", "world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1656511586815 | 1658425142015 | False | 0.021947748852958318 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016693870343127328 | ZRYqjyMg1LwJOoiOX7xk | {"NO": 99.00445384512241, "YES": 180.27933153579704} | 0 | will-the-us-attack-russia-domestica | 988.5141206748107 | {"NO": 826, "YES": 41.11422207597349} | Will the US attack Russia domestically by July 1st 2022? | 1656658800000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 826, "YES": 41} | 0 | 10.41729731868201 | True | play | NO | public | 1645727314145 | Daniel Filan | Resolved according to my judgement. "Attack" means some sort of conventional, physical attack. "Domestically" means in areas stably controlled by Russia before Feb 20 2022 (so Moscow or Crimea). Am open to help operationalizing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 859.8470062032683, "YES": 112.03541528972576} | {"creatorFee": 0.09232571341896512, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1658425246034 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1656634842018 | 0 | 23 | 1650314648139 | 0 | 1 | 1656634841883 | 1645995961002 | 0.009237335456268717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.030524686958290442 | aVmNNWycM8TjkDe0ZbtB | {"NO": 92.7764826683095, "YES": 1148.38384638678} | 0 | will-the-us-militarily-engage-russi | 2483.6436351591437 | {"NO": 946.3939060914744, "YES": 71.74906649310822} | Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? | 1656658800000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 957, "YES": 71} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645727595566 | Daniel Filan | Resolved according to my judgement. Has to be a physical attack. Fighting Russian troops would count. Destroying Russian-controlled infrastructure would count. Sanctions and cyberattacks don't count. I will attempt to use common sense in edge cases. I am open to help with operationalization. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1002.4770288207055, "YES": 177.92401635845917} | {"creatorFee": 0.7317879334267323, "platformFee": 0.11073505219636358, "liquidityFee": 0.09105784602678946} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1658425226061 | 100.09105784602679 | DanielFilan | 1656639706100 | 0 | 30 | 1650314658006 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494818}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226804}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1656639705939 | False | 0.002537242527748601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gHB6VhSjRrT0LduQt9Yp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | who-will-be-the-next-president-of-t | 50 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 25} | Who will be the next president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology? | 1672635540000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 25} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645727711603 | Peter Berggren | This market will resolve to the name of whoever has, according to https://news.mit.edu/, been selected as the president-elect of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), to replace the outgoing President L. Rafael Reif. The question will resolve to "none of the above" if none of the free responses is selected as MIT President. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 35.35604616610856} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645727727585 | 100 | PeterBerggren | 1645727711603 | 0 | 1 | 1715658517930 | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz | who-will-become-the-next-president | 120348.62501636712 | Who will become the next president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology? | 1666277983787 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.9959509961599515 | True | play | 9a8ff5bf680e | public | 1645727914389 | Peter Berggren | The market will resolve to the name of whoever has, according to https://news.mit.edu/, been chosen as the president-elect of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to replace outgoing president L. Rafael Reif. The market will resolve to "none" if the president chosen is not listed on this market. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.42447579239575256, "platformFee": 0.10611894809893814, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666277983787 | 600 | PeterBerggren | 1666277976517 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "722ac07b51fb", "prob": 0.33926345219254433, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.172436052667024, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 56.81512277259249, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1645727914554, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.924", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 40.71161426310532, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "904be1f0f028", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Melissa Nobles", "index": 1, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'melissa':1 'nobl':2", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1645728010446, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.922", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9362e2e20764", "prob": 0.23568651977429728, "text": "Cynthia Barnhart", "index": 2, "poolNo": 26.175582271819128, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.88542493761273, "textFts": "'barnhart':2 'cynthia':1", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1645728017199, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.923", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 47.137303954859455, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "37f21069b625", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Ian Waitz", "index": 3, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'ian':1 'waitz':2", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1645728047779, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.924", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5db331f24722", "prob": 0.00893369257323381, "text": "Richard Stallman", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.13571102535818275, "userId": "7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.055210785045931, "textFts": "'richard':1 'stallman':2", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1645798633651, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.924", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4293908117174094, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5a3c1a60fa1d", "prob": 0.347879855887135, "text": "Anantha P. Chandrakasan", "index": 5, "poolNo": 61.015611060069865, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 114.37715752801867, "textFts": "'anantha':1 'chandrakasan':3 'p':2", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1647559609499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.924", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 83.53916541291234, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ccb24168818", "prob": 0.01552554340397128, "text": "Nergis Mavalvala", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.15597607064656122, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.89044012156634, "textFts": "'mavalvala':2 'nergi':1", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1650648720853, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.923", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 1.2420434723177023, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "055230a74a4b", "prob": 0.015605250683029903, "text": "Persis Drell", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.15718513306945872, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.915394683952732, "textFts": "'drell':2 'persi':1", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1650648921521, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.922", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 1.2484200546423923, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4069e093e1e1", "prob": 0.01836610786354244, "text": "Paula T. Hammond", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.20097447859153203, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.741707557512346, "textFts": "'hammond':3 'paula':1", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1663331775899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.923", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 1.469288629083395, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9a8ff5bf680e", "prob": 0.018539577622246027, "text": "Other", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.20384654020994825, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.791362971216488, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nJwPyqKawvQBew4TwVQz", "createdTime": 1666277975056, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.923", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666277983000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4831662097796823, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 9 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504416}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533384}] | ["politics-default", "science-default"] | 1666277975056 | 1650649020709 | {"9a8ff5bf680e": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008401138100912716 | b4RdypcCUzA493uh5CHT | {"NO": 99.77488217388778, "YES": 156.84026199864817} | 0 | will-russia-attack-the-us-domestica | 423.67706254445824 | {"NO": 292, "YES": 6.322937455541762} | Will Russia attack the US domestically before July 1 2022? | 1656658800000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 292, "YES": 6} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645730751776 | Daniel Filan | Resolved according to my judgement. "Attack" means some sort of conventional, physical attack. "Domestically" means any US state, territory, federal district, or Indian reservation - California, DC, Puerto Rico, or Navajo lands would count, but military bases in Japan would not. I'm open to help operationalizing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 297.0696708097575, "YES": 27.327318638320538} | {"creatorFee": 0.1310402876667922, "platformFee": 0.012908406935572435, "liquidityFee": 0.07745044161343459} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1658425237317 | 100.07745044161344 | DanielFilan | 1656634850926 | 0 | 13 | 1650314662599 | 0 | 1 | 1656634850780 | 1650470254400 | 0.005360821302818319 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8119282870378635 | bI5kRTKgogmwkB5d4Oz8 | {"NO": 102.48489840483273, "YES": 100.57937952113903} | 1 | will-blazing-darkness-go-on-testost | 430.69918934819145 | {"NO": 64.73206063502678, "YES": 179.74628264544697} | Will Blazing Darkness go on testosterone by the end of 2022? | 1654114277930 | ZWBpPtZeIqN1v4AQuFS2LbqA7Iy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 181} | 0 | 4.508892969234308 | True | play | YES | public | 1645731348896 | Bella Kitt | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if, by the end of the present year, the individual known as Blazing Darkness has taken at least one dose of injected testosterone, has used transdermal testosterone gel for a period of at least one week, or has otherwise, in my estimation, ‘taken testosterone’. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 106.03390120637306, "YES": 220.28835894302003} | {"creatorFee": 0.4675035808722624, "platformFee": 0.0779172634787104, "liquidityFee": 0.4675035808722624} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1654114277930 | 100.46750358087226 | BellaKitt | 1645731348896 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzRsFFsvIQsAsJ-T81R8CTLNw3FiIG5Sp48Yt86=s96-c | 10 | 1650314664545 | 0 | 1647351750236 | 0.8147774406052491 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23600723139796256 | AF4PK3OsdP96bI0FrqrJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-be-removed-from | 4896.435338059706 | {"NO": 2532.9994495105457, "YES": 962.5652124297484} | Will Vladimir Putin be removed from Power in 2022? | 1646953140000 | ZHksHVGImoNz8rFfEqYDMZ6l1yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2585, "YES": 964} | 0 | 3.844243626065176 | True | play | NO | public | 1645732058211 | Blue Barry | This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin is removed from power through an election or by force in the year 2022. A natural death would not count as "removed from power". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3055.3578878025373, "YES": 1698.1659148560575} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1673288904177 | 100 | BlueBarry | 1673288904966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxk40cETag7Ve1bQF4HTKq598iW_Fh3ZCJ9I74Y=s96-c | 66 | 1650313830864 | 0 | 1 | 68 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474565}, {"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943404}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226516}] | ["politics-default", "putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1673288902050 | False | 0.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8864088949251783 | WOk1N8fwJFNb3Kw3YfeG | {"NO": 1290.5472548351765, "YES": 76.86461724577367} | 1 | finland-starts-process-to-join-nato | 3174.5374745526183 | {"NO": 301.8793830861147, "YES": 1091.6744395103156} | Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022. | 1654708948393 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 302, "YES": 1097} | 0 | 7.420499068334888 | True | play | YES | public | 1645736288929 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 472.1655049230724, "YES": 1311.1272934168167} | {"creatorFee": 3.248181103656694, "platformFee": 0.5693175854379033, "liquidityFee": 2.9127322857152427} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1654708948393 | 102.91273228571522 | GustavoLacerda | 1654706435786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 31 | 1650314623096 | 0 | 1654706435468 | 1654706300356 | 0.9924253836566522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1021796316084266 | pb2pWqHLjqdjgpP5cbjv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1021796316084266 | will-elden-ring-have-a-community-ra | 4931.248287632407 | {"NO": 1103.417775435841, "YES": 227.33393693175216} | Will 'ELDEN RING' have a community rating of 85% or above on Steam by March 1st? | 1646110800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1179, "YES": 190} | 0 | 4.6519909788955545 | True | play | NO | public | 1645737069895 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if ELDEN RING has a community rating of 85% or above on Steam when I check its Steam Store page on March 1st.
Feb 24, 6:32pm: Game is out on Steam now, no reviews yet. Metacritic has a 95/100 critic score with universal acclaim.
Feb 25, 1:11am: 59% so far on 10,319 reviews.
Feb 25, 9:08pm: 63% on 40K
Feb 26, 2:34pm: 68% on 58K
Feb 27, 11:35pm: 73% on 82,987 reviews with 24.5 hours to go... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1260.93322093138, "YES": 425.38240892792123} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1646196766099 | 100 | Athena | 1645737069895 | 0 | 17 | 1715658715421 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575724}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645817099897 | 0.1021796316084266 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7374962368674087 | 5IECQacMcwJY1i7kypsn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7374962368674087 | will-the-sp-500-close-15-on-februar | 1708.7317584771768 | {"NO": 365.1466085237463, "YES": 888.1216329990767} | Will the S&P 500 close +/- 1.5%+ on February 25th, 2022? | 1645819200000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 362, "YES": 898} | 0 | 4.654225595310749 | True | play | YES | public | 1645739175373 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 1.5% or more from February 24th's closing price at 4 PM EST on February 25th. I will check the price using the Webull stock app. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 642.1140132601105, "YES": 1076.277559796815} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1645822842074 | 100 | Athena | 1645739175373 | 0 | 12 | 1715656992721 | 0 | 1 | 0.7374962368674087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.000932985728173996 | 8PZjMkMB6PAqODoQyOjw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.000932985728173996 | will-leareth-and-janos-be-in-direct | 1587.8056759435824 | {"NO": 1531.0093974434906, "YES": 22.28587087193273} | Will Leareth and Janos be in direct communication on or before March 24th IRL? | 1648191540000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1532, "YES": 21} | 0 | 4.646792861571798 | True | play | NO | public | 1645739853530 | Mike Blume | This thread concerns the thread Weight of the Wheel (and any further threads by Swimmer and Aevylmar which are understood by them to be part of the same continuity): https://glowfic.com/posts/5513
Exchanging letters counts as direct communication.
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1552.5714976008092, "YES": 47.44514727767214} | {"creatorFee": 0.8877729622567002, "platformFee": 0.22194324056417505, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648233660887 | 100 | MichaelBlume | 1645739853530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 8 | 1715657641676 | 0 | 1 | 1648080253706 | 0.000932985728173996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07479416544173977 | hTktxSLVPm4RNqF4nJvN | {"NO": 147.85624301739284, "YES": 384.1343095712547} | 0 | will-there-be-the-use-of-nuclear-we | 2053.2509943676323 | {"NO": 598.4595893456608, "YES": 59} | Will there be the use of nuclear weapons in 2022? | 1672527600000 | EgcnTQPzboQzOGJ7ytgleYvhbik2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 599, "YES": 59} | 0 | 7.143650470556743 | True | play | NO | public | 1645741524120 | FunCube | Putin issued a thinly veiled thread (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWBNK5DlpTQ), that many interpret as hinting at the use of nuclear weapons. This issue will resolve the moment one country uses atomic weapons on the land of another country in the context of war (the weapon must explode), or when 2023 begins. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 622.767516616292, "YES": 210.74877648593886} | {"creatorFee": 0.4476049088129796, "platformFee": 0.04795792424269938, "liquidityFee": 0.25532290619584697} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1673405903093 | 160.25532290619583 | FunCube | 1672526245600 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgG-sUfdhbCOtJj3cGJbwdptEvZ2v2fpC6rn-qs=s96-c | 59 | 1650314715091 | 0 | 3 | 51 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500084}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181928946}] | ["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "nuclear"] | 1672526245482 | 1645979902931 | False | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01895236618782351 | 9uxns7nf5fViqyT5BroQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01895236618782351 | will-this-market-be-the-largest-of-60cba8e9a34b | 3330.7311919292406 | {"NO": 1560.8226923219784, "YES": 144.25832952418565} | Will this market be the largest of all markets tagged whale bait at the end of the day on March 31st, 2022? | 1648785540000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1575, "YES": 151} | 0 | 4.644014540888072 | True | play | NO | public | 1645742905594 | Duncn | Huh. Duplicate markets.
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-this-market-be-the-largest-of | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1688.8470617275696, "YES": 234.7345379724918} | {"creatorFee": 5.544657789487128, "platformFee": 1.386164447371782, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1648855864854 | 100 | Duncn | 1645742905594 | 0 | 16 | 1715657686775 | 0 | 1 | 1648631482262 | 0.01895236618782351 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IeFT9PA7mAlEFJqocPUG | will-the-su-reach-quorum | 40 | Will the SU reach quorum? | 1646351940000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.419168393434646 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645744273410 | UWU | Top t | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645744374342 | 280 | Uwu | 1645744273410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0f45c4d22ecf", "prob": 0.06249999999999999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2592402852876594, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.88860427931489, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IeFT9PA7mAlEFJqocPUG", "createdTime": 1645744273666, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:35.364", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645744374000, "totalLiquidity": 8.749999999999998, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "eba288ef550f", "prob": 0.1875, "text": "A", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.610092112150612, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.643732485985986, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IeFT9PA7mAlEFJqocPUG", "createdTime": 1645744283347, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:35.365", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645744374000, "totalLiquidity": 26.25, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d5979262e158", "prob": 0.3125, "text": "B", "index": 2, "poolNo": 29.496243982766842, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.89173676208705, "textFts": "'b':1", "contractId": "IeFT9PA7mAlEFJqocPUG", "createdTime": 1645744286740, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:35.365", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645744374000, "totalLiquidity": 43.75, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6ae8b4a9bb62", "prob": 0.4375, "text": "D", "index": 3, "poolNo": 54.01742260090205, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.4509719154455, "textFts": "'d':1", "contractId": "IeFT9PA7mAlEFJqocPUG", "createdTime": 1645744291350, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.564", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645744374000, "totalLiquidity": 61.25, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4445727450747231 | pNdGfIwlnHwcXMerOHN1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4445727450747231 | will-i-have-lost-twenty-or-more-pou | 5501.528417276923 | {"NO": 1356.2596618710083, "YES": 1737.2223046902448} | Will I have lost twenty or more pounds by Apr. 24, 2022? | 1649725358246 | JjTALFkwwLRHYO5Grsf2Teum3Yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1435, "YES": 1595} | 0 | 4.631151726810512 | True | play | YES | public | 1645744934806 | D. Kingsley | I am currently overweight and plan to lose some weight. I do not intend to have any form of surgery or use extreme dehydration techniques like some athletes, I just plan to eat less and lose weight via caloric deficit. (I may start exercising more as well but this is not the main part of this plan.) Based on reference class forecasting from previous weight loss, I believe that by doing so I will likely be able to lose at least twenty pounds in the next two months.
This market will resolve as 'YES' if I have successfully lost twenty pounds or more, as measured by my bathroom scale, by Apr. 24th 2022 (two months from now). If I successfully lose this weight prior to the market close time I will resolve the market early. My current weight by this scale (just checked) is 207.70 lbs, so that would mean my target is a weight at or below 187.70 lbs.
If demographic factors are relevant for people betting, I am a male in his late 20s or early 30s (don't want to be too specific here) and 6'2" tall.
Feb 24, 4:52pm: If my current scale breaks I will get a new one and assume that it is validly weighing me.
Close date updated to 2022-04-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2305.479805643065, "YES": 2062.6196280886647} | {"creatorFee": 60.277308958838496, "platformFee": 15.069327239709624, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1649725358246 | 100 | DKingsley | 1645744934806 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiBSB5MkB2SyYGA5zP3rUZ5onZntOueyG6fPE56Rw=s96-c | 29 | 1715658709101 | 0 | 1647644482959 | 0.4445727450747231 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KWW4BbRgtNIVHtg7pLj5 | what-should-we-call-the-digital-cur | 9176.095625498237 | What should we call the digital currency used to bet on Manifold Markets | 1647385138472 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.629011927430927 | True | basic | 9b6cc6016824 | public | 1645746784033 | Sinclair Chen | Answer will be my favorite response of all responses above 25%.
Market will actually close at a random time between 3/14/2022 and 3/19/2022
Mar 15, 3:49pm: The randomly chosen time has happened. Hard to tell if Mana is genuinely the most popular or if 25% is too high of a cutoff to prevent the market from being a Keynesian beauty contest. Regardless, my personal preference was mani > mana > m bucks | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.476174980070372, "platformFee": 4.619043745017593, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647385138472 | 1640 | Sinclair | 1668536472271 | 0 | 48 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "169ff840d713", "prob": 0.0003727454280784353, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0004678566430159885, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2546961447717495, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KWW4BbRgtNIVHtg7pLj5", "createdTime": 1645746784255, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.086", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647385138000, "totalLiquidity": 0.024228452825098293, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3bc182a483cc", "prob": 0.00012755966395057927, "text": "M$, pronounced \"em-doll-rrrz\"", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0002665443487393621, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, 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"text": "Paper", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6.500325024377033e-05, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6499674991874594, "textFts": "'paper':1", "contractId": "KWW4BbRgtNIVHtg7pLj5", "createdTime": 1645747764813, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.528", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647385138000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006500000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1614dfd9cd0b", "prob": 0.0002026988572690946, "text": "Moneyfold", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0003030471956856953, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.494758147369326, "textFts": "'moneyfold':1", "contractId": "KWW4BbRgtNIVHtg7pLj5", "createdTime": 1645747877407, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.465", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647385138000, 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m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA | who-will-win-the-predictit-degenera-712b07492186 | 1517.8607744428525 | Who will win the PredictIt Degenerates poker game on Wednesday, March 2nd? | 1646283540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.648420539539692 | True | play | 647cf2ef4c18 | public | 1645748245142 | David Glidden | PredictIt trader Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD on Twitter) hosts a weekly poker night for PredictIt traders (and associated circles). Who will win Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022?
Details to play or observe: https://twitter.com/GaetenD/status/1412847758776717312?s=20&t=6OPGeD1SGW-hNCF-xSy2gQ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646313175460 | 999.9999999999999 | dglid | 1645748245142 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d55e4bac36b0", "prob": 0.0004130359632876067, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0005333918107712382, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2908597511147153, "textFts": "", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1645748245626, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02623993178533031, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d229c627e9f9", "prob": 0.03379917403396464, "text": "derSchwartz", "index": 1, 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"probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "098deaf7cb8d", "prob": 0.0001810905976947103, "text": "caleb18", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0003498034472413259, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.9312990601289806, "textFts": "'caleb18':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1645748527376, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.025991826963240774, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f24edcb70563", "prob": 0.5534613068726717, "text": "LucyCross", "index": 4, "poolNo": 111.12399745747118, "userId": "GYf3r7evVLTfJvZ3oOHTtbhLosy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.6560680639586, "textFts": "'lucycross':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1645748803476, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.784", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 99.81453140493221, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f502001d8297", "prob": 0.011540125920202786, "text": "PopcornMuscles", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.22884528667620155, "userId": "GYf3r7evVLTfJvZ3oOHTtbhLosy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.601552428098493, "textFts": "'popcornmuscl':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1645748853001, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 2.1179525218254525, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9e1be932ae6c", "prob": 0.010152784012404529, "text": "theSchwartz", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.06532335349825588, "userId": "FKrVMecbjKbAEK2ckYJvap4swHG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.368710249348483, "textFts": "'theschwartz':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646272949746, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6450003960821701, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f3273d307dc3", "prob": 0.0940493334035569, "text": "DarthPedro88", "index": 7, "poolNo": 4.349328524360316, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.89585330694255, "textFts": "'darthpedro88':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276697635, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.787", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 13.498845500275225, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "38f73aab97b0", "prob": 0.010336355551643462, "text": "calcrisk79", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.06710921914115585, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.425432451456236, "textFts": "'calcrisk79':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276709048, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.794", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6566625879867611, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3ca8a3eef183", "prob": 0.010519927090882397, "text": "Bob69Barker420", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.06891129363803197, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.481637302630973, "textFts": "'bob69barker420':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276749952, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6683247798913523, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f4308fe0de29", "prob": 0.010611712860501867, "text": "PonderPreordain", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.0698183670033558, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.509549914174753, "textFts": "'ponderpreordain':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276765990, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.784", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.674155875843648, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "62c4d354b936", "prob": 0.010703498630121332, "text": "JackyPritch", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.07072944238733982, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.537338146680782, "textFts": "'jackypritch':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276789057, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.784", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6799869717959435, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4419f7a5dbc0", "prob": 0.010795284399740803, "text": "IMAGINE.PI.420", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.07164450351779252, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.56500357955751, "textFts": "'420':2 'imagine.pi':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276803501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.781", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6858180677482393, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e84ad19d2fcc", "prob": 0.01705341818979372, "text": "GoodmanOrtho", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.2325497897600735, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.404000206958589, "textFts": "'goodmanortho':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276818807, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.784", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7655303537668792, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fb9026af86ad", "prob": 0.07275706835533856, "text": "Webmo", "index": 14, "poolNo": 2.9252091717116686, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.27994529417784, "textFts": "'webmo':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276830589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.78", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 10.44277922276624, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "647cf2ef4c18", "prob": 0.04912426618182378, "text": "bweiasbo", "index": 15, "poolNo": 1.602592613343073, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.020645104069185, "textFts": "'bweiasbo':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276843597, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 7.0507770284500015, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d08cb49ec05e", "prob": 0.011162427478218674, "text": "NoNoNo917", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.07534428739450666, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.674467753178793, "textFts": "'nonono917':1", "contractId": "m3FXPsFlxEF4QyKOXdOA", "createdTime": 1646276851192, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.781", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646313175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7091424515574216, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"647cf2ef4c18": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03098563387731008 | tsRFEAk9EsFjoMSHvlmr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03098563387731008 | will-this-market-be-the-largest-of-f35e7009dce5 | 462.16631206816976 | {"NO": 271.2874315388263, "YES": 24.54625639300395} | Will THIS market be the largest of all markets tagged whale bait at the end of the day on March 31st, 2022? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 275, "YES": 24} | 0 | 4.771036612487341 | True | play | NO | public | 1645748297539 | Patrick Delaney | Here are the other two markets which are asking for the same thing;
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-this-market-be-the-largest-of
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-this-market-be-the-largest-of-60cba8e9a34b
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 291.21531010626694, "YES": 52.075001137149776} | {"creatorFee": 0.9818502557201603, "platformFee": 0.24546256393004007, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648868939360 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645748297539 | 0 | 11 | 1715658821191 | 0 | 1 | 1645748484390 | 0.03098563387731008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MRlAMrAnRjknTplSmIxn | what-world-will-the-best-april-fool | 85 | What world will the best April Fool's Isekai this year be from / who will write the best one? | 1648987479683 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0755757812182996 | True | play | c21f557f617a | public | 1645749688395 | Em ✨ | In the rationalist tradition, I expect to see some claims of secretly being a transplant from a different universe, with written commentary about the vastly different status quos we're biased to.
Deciding between answers which seem to describe actually-written posts by my judgment, commenting with links is the best way to make sure I know about an existing match. Past that, I intend to put a lot of weight on the wisdom of the crowd. May choose multiple if first place seems tied.
Let's say I will count glowfics or fanfiction started by a self-identified rat in March with that approximate theme. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4000000000000001, "platformFee": 0.35000000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648987479683 | 340 | hamnox | 1645749688395 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c636f20eed2a", "prob": 0.013840830449826988, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.22956081075784887, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.356207766496738, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MRlAMrAnRjknTplSmIxn", "createdTime": 1645749688658, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648987479000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9377162629757783, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bb9924ee3615", "prob": 0.23446366782006914, "text": "ANTE: Buy this answer to subsidize the market", "index": 1, "poolNo": 23.356240224911144, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.25936522076952, "textFts": "'answer':4 'ant':1 'buy':2 'market':8 'subsid':6", "contractId": "MRlAMrAnRjknTplSmIxn", "createdTime": 1645749732190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648987479000, "totalLiquidity": 42.203460207612444, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c21f557f617a", "prob": 0.740484429065744, "text": "Ozy", "index": 2, "poolNo": 96.44114467302366, "userId": "hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.799466591012965, "textFts": "'ozi':1", "contractId": "MRlAMrAnRjknTplSmIxn", "createdTime": 1645753268487, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648987479000, "totalLiquidity": 57.093425605536325, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "24bd48ba760b", "prob": 0.01121107266435986, "text": "dath ilan", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.16712714321123703, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.740201371618243, "textFts": "'dath':1 'ilan':2", "contractId": "MRlAMrAnRjknTplSmIxn", "createdTime": 1645806026420, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648987479000, "totalLiquidity": 1.5695501730103802, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"c21f557f617a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22917380615993999 | 8vRuCLgP0Nip4rQvtN8K | {"NO": 105.76959195110908, "YES": 317.95687886560626} | 0 | will-relogic-release-a-new-terraria | 587.7564027536464 | {"NO": 239, "YES": 125} | Will Re-Logic release a new Terraria game on Steam in 2022? | 1672559940000 | L4OzHHxCW0UWGSRAm5CPU5DU3IH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 239, "YES": 125} | 0 | 3.2586487455224367 | True | play | NO | public | 1645751506512 | hakusaro | This market resolves to YES if the Re-Logic Steam storefront page (https://store.steampowered.com/developer/Re-Logic) includes a new game that can be purchased with "Terraria" in the title that is a sequel or spinoff that must be purchased separately from the game "Terraria" (https://store.steampowered.com/app/105600/Terraria/). This resolves to NO if no new storefront is added, or if a new storefront is added that simply references the existing game (AppId: 105600), requires the existing game, or depends on the existing game to play. Soundtracks/non-game binaries don't count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 305.64927286123225, "YES": 197.67460636207173} | {"creatorFee": 0.2929461756778936, "platformFee": 0.04882436261298227, "liquidityFee": 0.2929461756778936} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1672569556297 | 140.2929461756779 | hakusaro | 1667245212930 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GghBlD8mBsokZRbwOmV9KiF6XZZH7Uoq-66PE24knI=s96-c | 8 | 1650313823316 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1667245212759 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4601632705946994 | B8AriFPaKYOWDQPUJI2u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4601632705946994 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-ad1b0271cab6 | 35 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 12} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on February 25, 2022? | 1645851540000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 12} | 0 | 5.606465955962464 | True | play | YES | public | 1645752502618 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on February 25, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
So far, the base rate is: 0/2 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.308073598990596, "YES": 19.67292557043817} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645851640993 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645752502618 | 0 | 6 | 1715657726320 | 0 | 0.4601632705946994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1725671267961912 | E2JCjqpmQBD6I5JE9xTq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1725671267961912 | will-my-toddler-wind-up-going-to-th | 157.16532017414036 | {"NO": 34.73728206840013, "YES": 12.097397757459518} | Will my toddler wind up going to the doctor for this fever? | 1646035140000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 12} | 0 | 5.336021796460592 | True | play | NO | public | 1645753075002 | Alicorn | This market resolves YES if any caregiver physically transports my two-year-old to any medical office for this sickness (if we take him in for falling down the stairs or something, but mention the fever while we're there, it resolves N/A). He's tired and feels hot but nothing really alarming so far, but Tylenol a couple hours back hasn't obviously improved him. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 42.603297414902805, "YES": 19.456103261644465} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646030589506 | 100 | Alicorn | 1645753075002 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 11 | 1715657804807 | 0 | [{"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1659617486104}] | ["parenting"] | 1645814220843 | 0.1725671267961912 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07168209276066453 | dG5mEzeRCIpsf38J3hcP | {"NO": 268.5683691077628, "YES": 2522.3133264599737} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-be-assassinated | 3278.0443919355366 | {"NO": 664, "YES": 102.0634854644839} | Will Vladimir Putin be assassinated by the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 664, "YES": 102} | 0 | 4.457500280312074 | True | play | NO | public | 1645755472318 | Patrick Delaney | This will end at 11:59PM Russia Standard Time, or wherever Putin's last known whereabouts are on that date. If he defects to another country, the timezone will follow him to that country. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 723.8644237180997, "YES": 250.74906174346447} | {"creatorFee": 0.5779461527009977, "platformFee": 0.011338393936297342, "liquidityFee": 0.06803036361778406} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1673030610509 | 320.06803036361777 | PatrickDelaney | 1671910202102 | 0 | 52 | 1650314679292 | 0 | 2 | 46 | [{"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943403}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227142}] | ["putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671910201943 | 1645807241059 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6227688191406265 | DM89hHoPVOdhbz0l3TtL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6227688191406265 | will-the-borogoves-be-mimsy | 1973.5448766928764 | {"NO": 116.60000000000002, "YES": 263.8551233071235} | Will the borogoves be mimsy? | 1646188200000 | lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 116.60000000000002, "YES": 265.4} | 0 | 4.7384425931196885 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645756253356 | Alex | Borogoves must be all mimsy BETWEEN the beginning of this post and the market close. Resolved according to the probability. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 233.67291154116356, "YES": 300.2396245896946} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646245178990 | 100 | Alex | 1645756253356 | 0 | 11 | 1715657784294 | 0 | 1 | 1646180498044 | 0.6227688191406265 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27011729584810207 | pQBKIHIdPN02GNNvTEHG | {"NO": 61.476305838541876, "YES": 399.8415975582582} | 0 | will-givewell-add-a-new-top-charity | 410 | {"NO": 77, "YES": 33} | Will GiveWell add a new Top Charity before July 1? | 1654055940000 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 77, "YES": 33} | 0 | 3.880971699488672 | True | play | NO | public | 1645756462305 | Tyler | Eg as shown here
https://secure.givewell.org/
Any other clear recommendation will resolve as YES | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 93.80913601920658, "YES": 57.446200921644945} | {"creatorFee": 0.9504146504508021, "platformFee": 0.15840244174180038, "liquidityFee": 0.9504146504508021} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1662653341444 | 100.9504146504508 | Tyler31 | 1654050711355 | 0 | 3 | 1650314765158 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1654050711109 | 0.053837494837059505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6193187430007365 | 4gj1r2ETXOX5ykUloqVV | {"NO": 177.9255493255681, "YES": 147.9164105796557} | 0 | will-givewell-add-a-new-top-charity-c6a0f8c53e27 | 259.0595498835455 | {"NO": 40.99999999999999, "YES": 67} | Will GiveWell add a new Top Charity before Dec 1? | 1667361540000 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40.99999999999999, "YES": 67} | 0 | 2.0325263607355266 | True | play | NO | public | 1645756531968 | Tyler | Eg as shown here
https://secure.givewell.org/
Any other clear recommendation will resolve as YES | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.45624174145254, "YES": 81.8543462540017} | {"creatorFee": 0.8106452184433386, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005744562646538029, "YES": 0.0008185352771872451} | 0 | 1674422081670 | 160 | Tyler31 | 1667358223708 | 0 | 8 | 1650313795940 | 0 | 5 | 9 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1660615090940}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 1667358223495 | 1662704869749 | 0.66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MamlDyO7qwHYj33G2DHv | when-will-russiaukraine-not-be-top | 130 | When will Russia/Ukraine not be top headline? | 1647308669039 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.939478067851447 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645757563712 | Tyler | Based on my judgment. At time of open, I’d expect this is roughly the same as continuing to be front page of US news. Open to suggestions in comments and will update description if criteria become more objective.
Ill extend close by ~2 weeks every ~2 weeks, assuming market hasn’t been resolved. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647308669039 | 280 | Tyler31 | 1645757563712 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "774c19a3ac0a", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 68.8122686868953, "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.48046539395775, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MamlDyO7qwHYj33G2DHv", "createdTime": 1645757563940, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647308669000, "totalLiquidity": 57.15976331360947, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2b2eea77965", "prob": 0.12426035502958577, "text": "Before Mar 13", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.552988645836089, "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.18296759922578, "textFts": "'13':3 'mar':2", "contractId": "MamlDyO7qwHYj33G2DHv", "createdTime": 1645757835080, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647308669000, "totalLiquidity": 17.396449704142007, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "53eb430c2bbd", "prob": 0.13609467455621302, "text": "After Dec 1", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.562347975379809, "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.00446975675878, "textFts": "'1':3 'dec':2", "contractId": "MamlDyO7qwHYj33G2DHv", "createdTime": 1645757872672, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647308669000, "totalLiquidity": 19.05325443786982, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1bf095d55281", "prob": 0.14792899408284024, "text": "Top headline where? This is too imprecise.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 8.629191321499015, "userId": "0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.70414201183433, "textFts": "'headlin':2 'imprecis':7 'top':1", "contractId": "MamlDyO7qwHYj33G2DHv", "createdTime": 1645757993849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647308669000, "totalLiquidity": 20.710059171597635, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014178806988337574 | yor2tgxn2MbFCy2HyPEH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014178806988337574 | will-snowden-tweet-about-ukraine-de | 1824.6736542038718 | {"NO": 1259.6501373482345, "YES": 99.67620844789349} | Will @Snowden tweet about Ukraine, denouncing or calling for the end of the war, by February 28, 2022? | 1646121540000 | L4OzHHxCW0UWGSRAm5CPU5DU3IH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1274, "YES": 93} | 0 | 4.651230023875341 | True | play | NO | public | 1645759599483 | hakusaro | This market resolves to YES if any Tweet is posted via @Snowden (https://twitter.com/Snowden) indicating that indicates that the war with Ukraine needs to stop or is a negative thing by February 28th, 2022. This market resolves to NO if no Tweet is posted by the same date.
Feb 24, 7:28pm: (Does not apply to any Manifold Markets participant named @Snowden) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1349.6561217691515, "YES": 161.86162608907648} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646416374831 | 100 | hakusaro | 1645759599483 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GghBlD8mBsokZRbwOmV9KiF6XZZH7Uoq-66PE24knI=s96-c | 23 | 1715658959926 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513807}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227013}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645992977071 | False | 0.014178806988337574 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n3MzpYaGKv7VcxlCc2Yz | how-many-political-messages-will-mf | 154 | How many political messages will MF delete by the end of February? | 1646092800000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.032602936953442 | True | play | 752c13e00111 | public | 1645760095754 | UWU | I will chose the answer bawd on the number of messages when this times iit. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680956551890 | 820.0000000000001 | Uwu | 1680901803710 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "83c30b133a9", "prob": 0.010850694444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.07576421304345846, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.906665661041674, "textFts": "", "contractId": "n3MzpYaGKv7VcxlCc2Yz", "createdTime": 1645760095920, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": 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1680956551000, "totalLiquidity": 2.013888888888889, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aaa9f0c4190d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": ">=15", "index": 12, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "'15':1", "contractId": "n3MzpYaGKv7VcxlCc2Yz", "createdTime": 1645779868185, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.215", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680956551000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d0fbbc0ab26", "prob": 0.018880208333333332, "text": "15", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.2793687847293674, "userId": "SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.517543399557127, "textFts": "'15':1", "contractId": "n3MzpYaGKv7VcxlCc2Yz", "createdTime": 1645779904194, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.214", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680956551000, "totalLiquidity": 2.013888888888889, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5e3af93339a3", "prob": 0.1974826388888889, "text": "0", "index": 14, "poolNo": 10.449485032842595, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.46395126533178, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "n3MzpYaGKv7VcxlCc2Yz", "createdTime": 1646059027338, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.215", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680956551000, "totalLiquidity": 21.064814814814817, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779592583}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1680901801117 | {"752c13e00111": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9111090833019457 | iutMm1By3EEimdsvehN8 | {"NO": 9771.922339897881, "YES": 942.4447651837145} | 1 | will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia | 66608.53139853965 | {"NO": 2045.2555924410199, "YES": 6409.876086964518} | Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022? | 1672520340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2061, "YES": 6442} | 0 | 1.1456737270679 | True | basic | YES | public | 1645761892831 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO, if at some point during 2022 Vladimir Putin stops being the ruler of Russia. Also resolves NO if there is somehow no Russia or more than one Russia and at least one of them is Putin-less. Resolves YES if nothing weird like that happens by New Year, Moscow time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 3:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3926.7001353797996, "YES": 7488.010060968117} | {"creatorFee": 40.38551358533378, "platformFee": 4.45422540838058, "liquidityFee": 25.614930271772003} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1672605850775 | 1170.0001352380768 | Jenny | 1672519387682 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 1650312176885 | 0 | 1 | 338 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663632369036}, {"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943400}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016211434}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501387}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226099}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "putin-assassination-markets", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672519387497 | 1671589333482 | False | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4874588489253044 | 5kBxLBSuCMlMASzcj1ML | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4874588489253044 | will-my-friend-aidan-get-btches-in | 368.1379133914524 | {"NO": 181, "YES": 134.8620866085476} | Will my friend Aidan get b*tches in 2022? | 1648796340000 | 8CPIAuLKejStiweBTcTNxsNWYNb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 181, "YES": 140} | 0 | 2.7743341165380144 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645776268999 | Brendan | Resolves to true if Aidan is in a relationship during 2022
I have hope for my boy but would like to probe the hivemind
Pros:
Has lunar drip
Infinite money
Decent fashion sense
Tall (6’2)
College freshman, accredited university, smart
Generous
Cons:
Professional minecraft builder
Memorizes pedestrian signs of all european countries
Car accident prone
Constantly says “where the bitches at” but when the bitches are around he has nothing to say
Overly strong visceral reaction to seeing a girl of any kind
Purchases genital jousting, told friends to purchase genital jousting, only played the game for 4 minutes. It was $15.
Information provided upon request but i would prefer to respect his privacy when possible | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 226.13263581618844, "YES": 220.53008978527603} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1697236323174 | 100 | Brendan | 1697236355545 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1Sz6M1rlq_sNsfHjGDpwP6WaCTyNXG4N6xo8ig=s96-c | 8 | 1650313802455 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072267}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1697236354775 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9210548541585688 | yaQQn43OL6PjVpYQzjNx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9210548541585688 | will-russia-make-battlefield-use-of | 497 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 377} | Will Russia make battlefield use of hypersonic missiles in 2022? | 1647712295889 | MIUTA6cHe4bIboq4fQkt4eoWwYv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 377} | 0 | 4.710887238367387 | True | play | YES | public | 1645777728585 | N. N. | Hypersonic missiles are missiles that travel at speeds between Mach 5 and Mach 10. They are important because they are very hard to intercept or block. Russia has tested several such missiles but I do not believe they have ever been used in conflict, by Russia or any other country. As of right now, Russia is not believed to have used hypersonic missiles in its war with Ukraine. If there is a report that I deem trustworthy of Russia using (not just testing) hypersonic missiles before 2022 this question resolves positive. Otherwise, negative.
Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 8:53pm: typo in the above, I meant "before the end of 2022". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.64325977540054, "YES": 476.97982556948887} | {"creatorFee": 4.8, "platformFee": 1.2, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647712295889 | 100 | NN | 1645777728585 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw_tZyhkwWJJ83EaQEAZppQGcTQ45LncSVD9y0W=s96-c | 6 | 1715658955354 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513496}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227009}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1647690589870 | False | 0.9210548541585688 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.716714807894768 | ftlPenNPrF07g4baE0yb | {"NO": 1042.6169193544242, "YES": 529.4134538719741} | 0.8328474000985128 | if-a-nato-country-is-attacked-will | 2581.1945571855395 | {"NO": 86.75000000000003, "YES": 780.1173607177909} | If a NATO country is attacked, will article 5 be respected? | 1704063540000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 86.75000000000003, "YES": 780.25} | 0 | 0.7385455817712842 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645782794580 | Valentin Manès | Bound it the time frame to end of 2023.
Article 5 specifies that the allies will come to the defence of the attacked country. Will they really defend the attacked country?
Thinking in particular to ex-Soviet countries (eg. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).
Feb 25, 10:55am: Cyberattacks are not included because not recognized as "war attacks" so far.
Feb 25, 5:44pm: Good point made by @hamnox. If there no attack on a NATO country during this timeframe, the market will resolve to N/A. Opened another market to bet on the probability of an attack happening: https://manifold.markets/ValentinManes/will-a-nato-country-be-attacked | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 303.5378552045248, "YES": 811.9886238558931} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1704140637510 | 675.0702110824741 | ValentinManes | 1704140638142 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 1 | 57 | 1650314703334 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419980}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703123477544}] | ["world-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11595934342115946 | 1702845627952 | 1696327683500 | 0.83 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I2N3PunFrfzyIFfmAnqd | what-week-will-the-7day-average-of | 51 | What week will the 7-day average of new COVID cases per day in the US next be under 50,000 according the CDC? | 1677398340000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.293597507653411 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645783132191 | horse | Data source is https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/, select View: Daily Cases and expand the table labeled "Data Table for Daily Case Trends". Resolves to the week closest to the week containing the first day after February 24th, 2022 that has a 7-day average of less than 50,000. Submissions should be in the form of "Week ending [date]", where [date] is the date for a Saturday in an unambiguous date format such as "March 19, 2022". Ties resolve in favor of later dates.
Feedback on the clarity and usefulness of this market is desired. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645783229247 | 240 | horse | 1645783132191 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e45cdaf712af", "prob": 0.9611687812379854, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.366208171261285, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.8731948101189537, "textFts": "", "contractId": "I2N3PunFrfzyIFfmAnqd", "createdTime": 1645783132387, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.858", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645783229000, "totalLiquidity": 9.319492502883495, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a0611a212d32", "prob": 0.03883121876201461, "text": "Week ending February 26th", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.8731948101189577, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.36620817126132, "textFts": "'26th':4 'end':2 'februari':3 'week':1", "contractId": "I2N3PunFrfzyIFfmAnqd", "createdTime": 1645783207811, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.86", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645783229000, "totalLiquidity": 9.319492502883508, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8701548824892138 | c0V0L912Oa320qh18Zku | {"NO": 8848.06979539899, "YES": 598.9413302221792} | 1 | putin-still-president-on-june-1-202 | 14701.9690991529 | {"NO": 153, "YES": 257.5081711265576} | Putin still president on June 1, 2024. Note that the 2024 Russia Presidential election is scheduled for March 17 and the inauguration for May 7. | 1717304340000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 153, "YES": 256} | 0.28713226716353524 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1645783429185 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2024-06-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009} | 0 | {"NO": 289.39072613878085, "YES": 291.15423267382283} | {"creatorFee": 5.480273025176317, "platformFee": 0.1152575858535158, "liquidityFee": 0.6915455151210946} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1717743960005 | 1000 | GustavoLacerda | 1717304340000 | 1.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 1 | 56 | 1650314668480 | 0 | 2 | 38 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929569}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495550}, {"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943403}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226810}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.14470717064118332 | 1717301042656 | 1646461529881 | False | 0.99 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08555515472021868 | RDOETRlL3eaBDdqWloIh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08555515472021868 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-d084883957dd | 297.16334474207156 | {"NO": 195.83665525792847, "YES": 51} | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $810 on February 25, 2022 | 1645819200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 196, "YES": 51} | 0 | 4.799234467833093 | True | play | NO | public | 1645799082156 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA
Feb 25, 3:48pm: $809.87 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 236.04248079999516, "YES": 72.19955201395545} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645822870345 | 100 | Predictor | 1645799082156 | 0 | 9 | 1715658165469 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425272}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645819155485 | 0.08555515472021868 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03215785447157667 | 8q65BdoW6xPeByGxHVxc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03215785447157667 | xi-jinping-will-successfully-mediat | 10546.271002044743 | {"NO": 6906.228997955257, "YES": 1119.5} | Xi Jinping will successfully mediate a talk between Vladimir Puti and at least 5 NATO leaders by March 15th, 2022. | 1647347208073 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7200.5, "YES": 1119.5} | 0 | 4.621330768033854 | True | play | NO | public | 1645802033413 | Patrick Delaney | This question is prompted by the ongoing speculation / observations in the news that the world is now entering into a hegemony between the United States and China.
* The talk must be with Xi Xinping or an appointed high level delegate and at least 5 NATO leaders from any of the NATO countries.
* Putin may have a stand-in such as Sergey Lavrov or other recognizable Russian leader, but the name must be recognizable and can't be some low level person talking with other low level people, they must be whatever the equivalent to Russian cabinet members would be.
* Same goes for NATO, preferably the leaders would be top level officials such as Boris Johnson, Joe Biden, etc., however whatever a given country's equivalent to Vice President, Secretary of State or otherwise would be acceptable.
If this ends up being a meeting of direct world leaders, this will resolve to YES. If this ends up being a bunch of cabinet members talking to each other, it may resolve to a high probability such as 75%. If a fake looking meeting between celebrities such as Sean Penn, Bono, other NATO celebrities and the members of t.A.T.u. happens it will resolve to 1%, and scale up in importance from there. If no meeting happens it will resolve to NO.
Mar 3, 7:10am: > if all of these parties meet but the event is not formally chaired/mediated by China, will this resolve negatively?
If this happens, China must absolutely be involved, but I will resolve to a PROB.
Mar 3, 7:10am: > Depends on how they define "5 NATO leaders". Seems very unlikely unless you really expand what "NATO leader" means.
See my above description, resolves to a PROB as we go down in importance. Top cabinet-level leaders qualify, e.g. Vice President, Vice-Whatever, Secretary of State or Equivalent, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, etc. However if it's that high-level cabinet member's intern meeting with an intern, that does not qualify.
Mar 15, 7:21am: Getting toward the end of the day in Ukraine/Russia and the only reports I have read are about China encouraging talks or having deep concerns, so resolved as NO. https://www.dw.com/en/can-china-broker-peace-between-russia-and-ukraine/a-61081736 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7895.6303915435965, "YES": 1439.2229570889847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1647347208073 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645802033413 | 0 | 62 | 1715657652733 | 0 | [{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1660934561033}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473500}, {"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1662529731244}] | ["politics-default", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"] | 1646288267616 | 0.03215785447157667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | DlW1oanm7XYGP0gv0PHE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-this-random-weather-station-in | 10 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will this random Weather Station in Uraguay | 1647064740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645802550376 | Patrick Delaney | I found this weather station on Thingspeak, I have no connection to it at all:
https://thingspeak.com/channels/1293177
Will the lower right-graph showing the past 7 daily temperatures resolve to the average high and low forecast for the following 7 days, 7 days from now when the market ends?
https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/440063?size=iframe
Current temperatures in Celcius for the following 7 days shown on Google Weather for Aceguá, Cerro Largo Department, Uruguay are shown as:
Sat
Scattered thunderstorms
33° 22°
Sun
Thunderstorm
29° 21°
Mon
Thunderstorm
24° 15°
Tue
Partly cloudy
27° 16°
Wed
Scattered showers
27° 16°
Thu
Sunny
29° 16°
Fri
Partly cloudy
29° 17°
I'll take the average of all of those temperatures and compare it to the average of the temperatures shown on the weather station chart. The average on the weather station chart may have to be a bit of a eyed estimate because it does not appear that you can export data.
Within +/- 5% precision resolves to YES, outside of that window resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645802659387 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645802550376 | 0 | 1 | 1715657798097 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525215}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3252696920595165 | eDT0HSqAQ7ObHCiqu9wp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3252696920595165 | will-measurements-from-this-random | 19 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 7} | Will measurements from this random Weather Station in Uraguay line up with Google weather's forecast for a nearby area? | 1647064740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 7} | 0 | 5.965004907270799 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645802648112 | Patrick Delaney | This is a replacement for a market I resolved to N/A because I errored on the title.
I found this weather station on Thingspeak, I have no connection to it at all:
https://thingspeak.com/channels/1293177
Will the lower right-graph showing the past 7 daily temperatures resolve to the average high and low forecast for the following 7 days, 7 days from now when the market ends?
https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/440063?size=iframe
Current temperatures in Celcius for the following 7 days shown on Google Weather for Aceguá, Cerro Largo Department, Uruguay are shown as:
Sat
Scattered thunderstorms
33° 22°
Sun
Thunderstorm
29° 21°
Mon
Thunderstorm
24° 15°
Tue
Partly cloudy
27° 16°
Wed
Scattered showers
27° 16°
Thu
Sunny
29° 16°
Fri
Partly cloudy
29° 17°
I'll take the average of all of those temperatures and compare it to the average of the temperatures shown on the weather station chart. The average on the weather station chart may have to be a bit of a eyed estimate because it does not appear that you can export data.
Within +/- 5% precision resolves to YES, outside of that window resolves to NO.
Mar 13, 1:21pm: Closing with N/A, I didn't capture the data properly and the question was badly posed. My apologies, I have been busy. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 13.964956158183956, "YES": 9.696081708607863} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647195716639 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645802648112 | 0 | 3 | 1715658478946 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531330}] | ["science-default"] | 1647058382247 | 0.3252696920595165 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2220711485152025 | HvuKB6H8Shv3E6V22jT9 | {"NO": 21.375046627357925, "YES": 301.4145396050519} | 0 | will-drew-devaults-sourcehut-comple | 403.55340261966023 | {"NO": 50.99999999999999, "YES": 147.35512861571218} | Will Drew DeVault's SourceHut complete alpha and start beta in 2022? | 1672527540000 | QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50.99999999999999, "YES": 149} | 0 | 6.844021513804705 | True | play | NO | public | 1645807017241 | ianminds | This market will resolve to YES if at any point in 2022, SourceHut (sr.ht) reaches beta. Beta was previously predicted for 2021 and has again been predicted for 2022. See https://sourcehut.org/blog/2021-11-15-sourcehuts-third-year/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 87.464861517869, "YES": 178.0310415603778} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00058309518948453, "YES": 0.000812403840463596} | 0 | 1672999389550 | 120 | ianminds | 1667457565875 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c | 5 | 1650313884484 | 0 | 2 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1665759188720}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1665759192416}] | ["technology-default", "internet"] | 1667457565712 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2485553581094688 | B8dLLvQoCMH6BrnLUDm2 | {"NO": 127.88460499786308, "YES": 1144.8203394189281} | 0 | will-a-nato-country-be-attacked | 2432.889833102403 | {"NO": 679, "YES": 54.22165699262712} | Will a NATO country be attacked? | 1704063540000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 679, "YES": 51} | 0 | 2.023355589403255 | True | play | NO | public | 1645807461546 | Valentin Manès | Bound it the time frame to end of 2023.
Cyberattacks are not included because not recognized as "war attacks" so far. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 705.6032952765801, "YES": 199.34757189932967} | {"creatorFee": 0.10208868781437776, "platformFee": 0.017014781302396295, "liquidityFee": 0.10208868781437776} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1704140630780 | 360.1020886878144 | ValentinManes | 1704140631678 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 41 | 1650313838582 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131336701}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1698138785134 | 1668587525029 | 0.04 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.026658048841652692 | VbHaqC5QR8rbP4xAASF1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.026658048841652692 | will-gerhard-schroder-former-german | 3288.126590105804 | {"NO": 3110.5, "YES": 93.37340989419567} | Will Gerhard Schröder (Former German Chancellor) resign as a board member at Gazprom before March 3rd 2022? | 1646261940000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3110.5, "YES": 102.5} | 0 | 4.630603701049823 | True | play | NO | public | 1645808579187 | hagi | The former Austrian Chancellor already resigned yesterday from his job at a Russian state-owned company.
Trade ends exactly as the deadline ends. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3160.8814269343557, "YES": 523.1059541204925} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1646295312875 | 100 | hagi | 1645808579187 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 20 | 1715658250523 | 0 | 1 | 1646254734825 | 0.026658048841652692 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06250390614013977 | VWMFGj4eLeDI2Hjb2KT4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-wikipedia-article-for-list | 34 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 4} | Will the Wikipedia Article for, "List of Datasets for Machine Learning Research" receive significant edits by the end of March 2022? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 4} | 0 | 8.740648436156842 | True | play | NO | public | 1645810577389 | Patrick Delaney | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_datasets_for_machine-learning_research
Feb 26, 12:25pm: I'm trying to figure out what, "Significant Edits," might be and what the baseline would be, but I would use the page's own history for a baseline (not compared to other Wikipedia articles, but this article compared to previous months). https://xtools.wmflabs.org/articleinfo/en.wikipedia.org/List_of_datasets_for_machine-learning_research | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 30.9847704655045, "YES": 8.000499996875195} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1650905733202 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645810577389 | 0 | 5 | 1650314618035 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529156}] | ["science-default"] | 1650905755383 | 0.06250390614013977 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2462198065315377 | 1ldpQ9PMeg4fWFUXUYVE | {"NO": 174.54469808064874, "YES": 1933.9073752670433} | 0 | will-any-new-country-become-members | 5548.885651154266 | {"NO": 637.9626067870029, "YES": 592.848691131128} | Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? | 1672527540000 | ebX5nzwrs8V0M5UynWvbtcj7KAI2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 645, "YES": 603} | 0 | 1.830874468648827 | True | play | NO | public | 1645811504594 | Paul I. H | This market immediately resolves to YES if any any country acceeds to membership of NATO in 2022. If not, it will resolve to NO at the end of 2022. Applications are not sufficient, nor "Partnership for Peace", this market will track actual membership of NATO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 797.6925610684365, "YES": 937.3289127742664} | {"creatorFee": 17.247938546829158, "platformFee": 2.4240761949764362, "liquidityFee": 13.334703816930727} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1672536294845 | 349.36257505661797 | PaulIHuse | 1672232717280 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giggq5WugVvHg1zwSevIAApkYf37x1cBnb_G_ZE5tpOSdLBZ4UeQzkcaMLMr-w7ITEHqpKTiVY56SOVhD3005d_daDQm2Zm7LXYtoEQhM4IjizV5Jhi-iRkMEDsKW6qr0deyFt0x55JzsyL6TxE930DcR3R2Uv5m3VfScdYdAEeoT8RuEcgpZPVyZV0nDRyheA3Zr2CVI3-PKzGCyXyftg7d9cQQA6azdcMI40fMQbNsq_iYNE9H5L3ooYsebtLBpQYrXaaZtbVnkQ4gEfK-eM_cH7xu85SGUXmEXV6hkMw1Iq1YRREJcHtVMfIpHA8Q6Tc-IcOQDjA4XVz70NtumLukmoKuax7OCWCwk59K4uIaQbfPeNs751ZSQRYnt8Nm7xma-Epq8nRRTVSOxrcfW9cZjd27_BX5TTA_tXzRmPGu2YcUVZgJcFUCNG30mlbCjXWPIZVy79ofPJiCUO7YxDL9Y7e3fopkWBZ_lpuQvru_wpQSVVVq4wEMkOni0kEnxqYEf736Eu8OUNACZxlCJhWbLEjosTT_vjv4FBzytYK5XkbPJtk29r_mS-IZEhrl9_B6Lu6BdlXuGMdNb2NRjaMGqq54yHBy9KH-VbryhHPOTEQTuDGafUhqKAn4Q-OfqsLsHTnxDyyD3Slpcg88_MT-IyF_XHFzd3jnxn5J3RsMieB2mpzBDebW5Dc3hn9V_eTIkABpCQzgbFBzZK4ffgDxSuyCf6igeDaIL_PAUr_ie-15oSbFm8byahuB45nx-EBGA=s96-c | 78 | 1650313774745 | 0 | 1 | 67 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467314}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 1672232717086 | 1663915390603 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9148732052393859 | R8lV8xTmXNbtta8UvVk7 | {"NO": 835.8834937799576, "YES": 83.0410323678368} | 1 | will-i-start-a-new-job-in-2022 | 1292.2979366931654 | {"NO": 49.80108140485896, "YES": 191.90098190197554} | Will I start a new job in 2022? | 1654644336018 | 9V9tWsjLzWYKVx5z834jNTgs7503 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 200} | 0 | 9.408201564009865 | True | play | YES | public | 1645811791342 | Florian Ulrich Jehn | My current job will end in May 2022. So far I have no position after this and would be on unemployment benefits. I am looking for opportunities and sometimes write applications. However, I would also be okay with several month of down time after my current position ends to explore new opportunities. You can find additional information about me on my LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/florian-ulrich-jehn-b03a4011b/
This questions will resolve with Yes if I leave unemployment benefits at any date in 2022 or if I never receive any unemployment benefit, because I immediately have a new job in June 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 231.1282561942777} | {"creatorFee": 0.5236987904699937, "platformFee": 0.08728313174499894, "liquidityFee": 0.5236987904699937} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1654644336018 | 100.52369879047001 | FlorianUlrichJehn | 1654577517180 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgV1lC6ne8JI71GSF4iad68G6JIGKOcoIbg69y5=s96-c | 6 | 1650314586560 | 0 | 1654577516910 | 0.9908408271120538 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3761030971024932 | C6jRyaGoiGJnwBtUIHSJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3761030971024932 | will-tyler-cowen-consider-richard-h | 673.4043548068655 | {"NO": 343.98194822013227, "YES": 236.61369697300222} | Will Tyler Cowen consider Richard Hanania to have fallen in status as a result of the events in Russia-Ukraine? | 1647064740000 | y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 345, "YES": 234} | 0 | 4.697662443744831 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645812222450 | Nathan Braun | Richard Hanania is a rising star in conservative intellectual circles, Maniford Markets user, and author of a new book on foreign policy, Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy, which I haven't read but has gotten a lot of good reviews (including from Tyler Cowen — "This is a book that should revolutionize a field, though I doubt if it will.")
Hanania and his book are very anti traditional US foreign establishment, and has been critical of how the US (and Ukraine) have handled the run up to the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, and been less critical of Russia. More details on the book/his argument:
https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/new-book-public-choice-theory-and?utm_source=url
I'm curious as to whether his reputation will take a hit as a result of the events in Russia-Ukraine (and his reaction to them, which seems to be fairly pro Russia), and am proposing to have Tyler Cowen evaluate this, similar to his status or winner and loser articles here:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/trump-winning-rises-falls-status.html
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/11/this-elections-winners-and-losers.html
Tyler can use whatever he wants to evaluate this, including Hanania's book, tweets etc. Although this question is about TC's judgement specifically, I generally respect his opinion, and view it as a good proxy for whether Hanania *should* rise or fall in status as a result of these events + Hanania's reaction to them.
Here is how I will resolve this market:
In two weeks, after trading closes I will email Tyler Cowen with details on this market and ask him whether he considers Hanania to have fallen in status (or to be a "loser") of the events in Russia-Ukraine. If he doesn't reply, I'll follow up once by email and once by tweet. If I still don't hear from him, I'll resolve NA.
YES - Cowen thinks Hanania has fallen in status/is a loser of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
NO - Cowen doesn't Hanania has significantly fallen in status.
I'll also give Tyler the option of resolving to a PROB.
Feb 25, 12:03pm: Hanania's twitter: https://twitter.com/RichardHanania
Feb 25, 4:21pm: In my email to Tyler I will also request he does NOT look at the market results before he makes his decision so that he's not influenced one way or the other. I will send him this description. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 458.5967123030747, "YES": 356.06392666813827} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647102727582 | 100 | NathanBraun | 1645812222450 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh9zR53v96E8a6jPfvilnDMeQP9Nmgrj4o7dxx1VFg=s96-c | 18 | 1715657748335 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476754}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226462}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646939993927 | False | 0.3761030971024932 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011907951191135711 | 3owyASAzrQzV40aAW5lA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.011907951191135711 | will-russia-be-suspended-from-swift | 20453.53801864466 | {"NO": 8337.686567839824, "YES": 1154.7754135155258} | Will Russia be suspended from SWIFT by March 15, 2022? | 1647406740000 | QJLcvRf78TeoafY4gUqdKLmk6f32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8523.2, "YES": 689.8} | 0 | 4.620373753808381 | True | play | NO | public | 1645812714379 | Ryan Wismer | This will resolve yes if Russia is suspended for any period before the end of day (EST) on March 15.
Feb 26, 3:17pm: A situation in which only SOME Russian banks and not the entirety of the Russian state entity financial system (government/central Bank, etc) are suspended would count as NO. If someone knows more about how a SWIFT suspension would work I'd love to learn but I'll try to keep this a clear "Russia" rather than "some Russian banks" forecast.
Feb 28, 10:30am: Expanding on the previous comment, this will resolve NO if the SWIFT suspension is partial and still allows energy payments. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9435.775826051808, "YES": 1035.8513469113304} | {"creatorFee": 38.77047925421406, "platformFee": 9.692619813553515, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1647439367029 | 100 | RyanWismer | 1645812714379 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyDzLMHg0ywZ0p9T6VxRbnIISRmy2ByaoJh6XfFMM=s96-c | 77 | 1715656952650 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468950}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564139}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226433}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646039903733 | False | 0.011907951191135711 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40055789204798303 | 9QIMp6NENTIShb4dHlkb | {"NO": 275.51023025660106, "YES": 373.7804982915497} | 0 | will-i-get-engaged-this-year | 726.0581791586326 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 124} | Will I get engaged this year? | 1672527540000 | R4FbgN5gRZb5FpjUaA2WDYS7ei23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 124} | 0 | 1.16856757343844 | True | play | NO | public | 1645814334124 | Torey | My boyfriend and I have been together for three and a half years, and have known each other for ten years.
Because we openly talk about planning a wedding (next year), I am assuming that he will propose this year.
Matthew: you aren't allowed to bet on this! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.53425969840598, "YES": 140.4181184917032} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1672531199230 | 360 | Torey | 1671541569773 | 0 | 21 | 1650313825944 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1671541569634 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9781399876951851 | 9XN7LyVE0YkWplREWdtP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9781399876951851 | will-this-market-have-m10000-invest | 20096.13437171704 | {"NO": 513.062326750076, "YES": 10572.803301532884} | Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th? | 1647000335567 | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 499, "YES": 10701} | 0 | 4.619620420952435 | True | play | YES | public | 1645815607759 | colorednoise | By the end of the day (EST) March 10th, will a total of at least M$ 10,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market?
#meta #shortterm #test | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1639.0599948060544, "YES": 10964.02851298299} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1647000335567 | 100 | colorednoise | 1645815607759 | 0 | 38 | 1715657673330 | 0 | 1646955414286 | 0.9781399876951851 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004518572418694267 | eWgScFVvLR7LGxnAWAw1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004518572418694267 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr | 2809.173934895638 | {"NO": 2631.5, "YES": 95.32606510436176} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before February 27th Eastern Time? | 1645937940000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2631.5, "YES": 66.5} | 0 | 4.633287462108885 | True | play | NO | public | 1645815632635 | Matthew Barnett | On Twitter, the user Kevin Rothrock wrote,
> No updates from Zelensky’s Telegram channel in the past two hours…
Source: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497283123079434245
This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before February 27th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post. The media outlet must not retract the claim within 2 hours. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2720.6594071803106, "YES": 183.29820813894662} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645938768036 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645815632635 | 0 | 21 | 1715658488237 | 0 | 0.004518572418694267 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.023246153304463918 | hsv0O08Hv7ywF8HSh6Lt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.023246153304463918 | will-the-sp-500-close-05-or-more-on | 27765.091922915177 | {"NO": 3359.3031712674774, "YES": 301.6049058173403} | Will the S&P 500 close +/- 0.5% or more on February 26th, 2022? | 1645885800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3539, "YES": 57} | 0 | 4.6286840594358205 | True | play | NO | public | 1645821677831 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 0.5% or more from February 25th's closing price at 4 PM EST on February 26th according to Google Finance. After hours moves will not be counted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3618.107846656064, "YES": 558.1674306584304} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645904035602 | 100 | Athena | 1645821677831 | 0 | 19 | 1715658552040 | 0 | 1 | 1645885131274 | 0.023246153304463918 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3736923703103392 | pRqzvAZNW4OxyOBpDTrD | {"NO": 149.53550878830356, "YES": 56.079165707298834} | 1 | will-ukraine-win-this-years-eurovis | 4707.872313091606 | {"NO": 1235.6269340527112, "YES": 839.4535119057585} | Will Ukraine win this year's Eurovision song contest? | 1652558400000 | 0Lu292tTbYRUhj9zqKG0oO02Qju1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1243, "YES": 824} | 0 | 3.0046301377146767 | True | play | YES | public | 1645821968245 | Olof Gren | This market resolves as yes if Ukraine wins this year's Eurovision song contest. Eurovision votes often depend on political sympathies anyway.
Mar 2, 11:16pm:
To clear up edge cases:
If Ukraine does not compete - Resolves No.
No eurovision this year - Resolves No.
If Ukraine ties for first place - Resolves Yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1648.2576060955635, "YES": 1260.638675953271} | {"creatorFee": 2.9947810437559457, "platformFee": 0.5949970718121586, "liquidityFee": 1.8443782695219333} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1652613836654 | 101.84437826952195 | OlofGren | 1652546467549 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzQqAP9dVaW5qedMlKs30coSO6a8zkpUa7747za=s96-c | 44 | 1650314765406 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505560}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226879}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1652546466268 | 1649302261624 | False | 0.6140481593257786 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0017432516891412405 | 0MCbf6DZL0n0MhSRlPB1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0017432516891412405 | will-kentucky-be-named-a-number-1-s | 2658.843275920393 | {"NO": 563.9195866911647, "YES": 7.237137388441866} | Will Kentucky be named a number 1 seed in the March Madness Basketball tournament? | 1647233940000 | QJLcvRf78TeoafY4gUqdKLmk6f32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 560, "YES": 13} | 0 | 4.698969747488918 | True | play | NO | public | 1645823730599 | Ryan Wismer | This market resolves yes if the University of Kentucky is named a number 1 seed on Selection Sunday, March 13 at 6 p.m. EST.
Close date updated to 2022-03-13 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 570.659671093366, "YES": 23.84712903909498} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647261370769 | 100 | RyanWismer | 1645823730599 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyDzLMHg0ywZ0p9T6VxRbnIISRmy2ByaoJh6XfFMM=s96-c | 8 | 1715656866639 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529394995}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181992938}] | ["sports-default", "basketball"] | 1647094600586 | False | 0.0017432516891412405 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9797254602481577 | qG1CgcY8Wj80iHP27D9Y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9797254602481577 | will-ethereum-be-above-2500-on-marc | 4310.028430488508 | {"NO": 91.5037117484874, "YES": 3926.4678577630048} | Will Ethereum be above $2500 on March 2, 2022? | 1646240400000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 81, "YES": 3928} | 0 | 4.627486283214814 | True | play | YES | public | 1645824458619 | Johnny | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ethereum (ETH) has a candlestick closing price of $2500.01 or more, as per resolution source, on March 2, 2022, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise.
The resolution source for this market will be prices listed on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum).
This market will resolve on the “C” (i.e. closing price) listed for the candle titled “Wed March 2 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET.
Close date updated to 2022-03-02 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-02 9:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 287.3364756734845, "YES": 4007.6852819419746} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005196152422706632, "YES": 0.0008544003745317531} | 0 | 1646240431051 | 100 | TheSkeward | 1645824458619 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 18 | 1715658728601 | 0 | 1646150362517 | 0.9797254602481577 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | CLSGub70M6ffvghHtTb4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.99 | i-will-give-m10-to-bee-to-settle-a | 23 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 13} | I will give M$10 to Bee to settle a personal debt | 1646467140000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 13} | 0 | 5.755376554973431 | True | play | YES | public | 1645827902135 | Daniel Reeves | This is an experiment!
Ha, hey Duncan, can you cash out? I can't transfer to Bee this way without also transferring to you! :)
PS: Oh, wait, never mind; you buying NO is just augmenting the payment to Bee I think. Anyway, I shall now try resolving to YES... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 15.969345650338965, "YES": 16.553730712440625} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645828245572 | 100 | dreev | 1645827902135 | 0 | 3 | 1715657761022 | 0 | 1645827984877 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25792371152800814 | 4qIwwYC5X1W4csDML260 | {"NO": 219.49759336102915, "YES": 881.8451157455613} | 0 | will-ye-west-release-donda-2-anywhe | 1120.7872252487537 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 61} | Will Ye West release Donda 2 anywhere else than his Stem Player in 2022? | 1672527540000 | HSCwBOBR7RZHzsYycg6cKimnYDn2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 61} | 0 | 1.6002541301373703 | True | play | NO | public | 1645832114632 | David d. | This market resolves as "Yes" if the album appears in standard streaming platforms like Spotify, YouTube Music or Apple Music, even if it is later taken down. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 117.4781766972062} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672960780055 | 360 | Davidd | 1672705920737 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1650313796947 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1672507563280 | 1672705918491 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.029617253416473324 | C23p2Q4GUjt6coEBu8hO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.029617253416473324 | will-hawaiian-airlines-flight-29-on | 2172.440501657685 | {"NO": 1946.5594983423148, "YES": 133} | Will Hawaiian Airlines Flight 29 on Feb 28, 2022 be delayed by at least 1 hour? | 1646121540000 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1946, "YES": 133} | 0 | 4.638873920105106 | True | play | NO | public | 1645837160462 | LukeW | This market resolves to YES if, according to flightaware.com, HA29 on February 28th 2022 departs at least 60 minutes behind its currently scheduled departure time of 9:25 a.m. Pacific Time.
This market also resolves to YES if the flight is canceled.
The market resolves to NO, if the flight departs ahead of schedule, on time, or 1 to 59 minutes late.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2048.533603674783, "YES": 357.88537394107533} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646091503085 | 100 | LukeW | 1645837160462 | 0 | 11 | 1715657745163 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524696}] | ["science-default"] | 0.029617253416473324 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10247015446822534 | zMLZgYM0xnWJSMX5hMsq | {"NO": 89.34367894540762, "YES": 308.24397450340786} | 0 | will-italy-win-the-eurovision-song | 452.93705906819207 | {"NO": 91.27272966286984, "YES": 14.790211268938126} | Will Italy win the Eurovision Song Contest 2022? | 1652522400000 | fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90.8, "YES": 15.2} | 0 | 7.642730237634284 | True | play | NO | public | 1645837465953 | Lorenzo | See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2022
Will resolve as YES if Italy wins the contest, will resolve as NO if any other country wins or the contest is canceled like in 2020
Starting at 21% from https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100.45271737129072, "YES": 34.04131517303104} | {"creatorFee": 0.7349494115504764, "platformFee": 0.12453438849939216, "liquidityFee": 0.7104355726587234} | {"NO": 0.0008888194417315589, "YES": 0.000458257569495584} | 0 | 1652570749918 | 100.71043557265871 | Lorenzo | 1652303667171 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhzcpHjwZ67O8HADuUYEMWdxEt94d8LT4MtPpRpc6o=s96-c | 9 | 1650315037610 | 0 | 1 | 1652303665829 | 1647816181359 | 0.032031619618991966 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl | 50-bounty-for-best-analysis-of-ukra | 652.7163591544174 | $50 bounty for "Best analysis of Ukraine invasion predictions" that includes Manifold | 1646467140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7003824137499395 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645839918647 | Austin | I'm posting a $50 USD bounty for the best writeup of how different forecasting platforms (prediction markets or otherwise) performed on the subject of the Ukraine invasion date.
- Each free response answer should link to a different writeup. The writeup must include at least one Manifold market.
- There's an ante of M$ 500 for the best response. You may link to writeups which are not yours; only the writer is eligible for the bounty, but you would win the share of M$.
- I'll choose the writeup I think is the best. If multiple writeups are very good, I may award more bounties (with at least $50 to the winner); and will resolve this market according to the ratio of total bounty payouts.
- We may be able to provide full trader identities on resolved markets; comment if you're interested.
ACX investigated this briefly https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold ; but this was before the invasion happened. (The market Scott pulled up also was for a February invasion; an apples-to-apples comparison might compare to our market for all of 2022).
Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm
Mar 14, 4:29pm: Thanks everyone for participating! I'm choosing to award:
$50 USD to the GlobalGuessing crew for their work on reporting Russia/Ukraine forecasting accuracy
M$ 500 to Patrick Delaney's weighted index market
M$ 350 to Em of the Night's troll writeup
(payouts to come soon; if you haven't received it in a week, please bug me about it)
Mar 15, 12:21pm: All payouts have been sent! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647300715718 | 560 | Austin | 1645839918647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "268fe72b789c", "prob": 0.7934517244344099, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.16079649923192, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.235451148976168, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1645839918833, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.486", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 22.021149393662945, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "60c5360de6b9", "prob": 0.05320501747306245, "text": "Comment thread + ante", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.3543318810954736, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.895853400536375, "textFts": "'ant':3 'comment':1 'thread':2", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1645840368388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.491", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 9.931603261638324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "382540fcdf65", "prob": 0.03986322176455017, "text": "Minimum Viable Writeup\nhttps://gist.github.com/hamnox/9ac221cbb6a5b7d7d9d1007aa4c1e31f", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.4909133099305905, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.99558927741739, "textFts": "'/hamnox/9ac221cbb6a5b7d7d9d1007aa4c1e31f':6 'gist.github.com':5 'gist.github.com/hamnox/9ac221cbb6a5b7d7d9d1007aa4c1e31f':4 'minimum':1 'viabl':2 'writeup':3", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1645846837250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.487", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 12.22472134112872, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ee0bbf6dd7cb", "prob": 0.027774499942818148, "text": "https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.8762996560591025, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.6742109872727, "textFts": "'/patrickdelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/patrickdelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw':1", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1645886334902, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.486", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 5.184573322659388, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "44f19b25be1f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "So, if you look at the two largest Ukraine prediction markets on Manifold, on the surface they seem surprisingly accurate and opinionated in their two separate predictions, but sliding the time window out further by weighting the two predictions, the Markets really only modeled out that there was a 0.557 chance that an invasion was going to occur within a timeframe, when in retrospect, is pretty close to 5% of, \"not sure,\" so ultimately we collectively did not know what was going to happen, and the market changed their answer at the last minute, which means the prediction was really just a description of what was going on rather than an actual prediction.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'0.557':50 '5':69 'accur':20 'actual':112 'answer':90 'chanc':51 'chang':88 'close':67 'collect':76 'descript':103 'go':56,82,107 'happen':84 'invas':54 'know':79 'largest':8 'last':93 'look':4 'manifold':13 'market':11,41,87 'mean':96 'minut':94 'model':44 'occur':58 'opinion':22 'predict':10,27,39,98,113 'pretti':66 'rather':109 'realli':42,100 'retrospect':64 'seem':18 'separ':26 'slide':29 'sure':72 'surfac':16 'surpris':19 'time':31 'timefram':61 'two':7,25,38 'ukrain':9 'ultim':74 'weight':36 'window':32 'within':59", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1645886944439, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.489", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3a69212126a", "prob": 0.08560553638515934, "text": "Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy, Michał Dubrawski\nhttps://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/", "index": 5, "poolNo": 5.937090148162678, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.41695398106654, "textFts": "'/russia-ukraine-forecasts/':9 'andrew':3 'clay':1 'dubrawski':6 'eaddi':4 'globalguessing.com':8 'globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/':7 'graubard':2 'michał':5", "contractId": "wA0iFFlrBR8hbNu1aqCl", "createdTime": 1646139907258, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.491", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647300715000, "totalLiquidity": 19.40392158063612, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646140225552 | {"3a69212126a": 85.47008547008546, "382540fcdf65": 5.982905982905983, "ee0bbf6dd7cb": 8.547008547008547} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26711722301746244 | mbV7p60MlDKS5R49Dthx | {"NO": 59.599087260494954, "YES": 686.5353312396676} | 0 | the-ukrainian-war-will-be-done-by-j | 3164.622817696246 | {"NO": 1021.3604618954724, "YES": 658.788711966366} | The Ukrainian war will be done by June 2022. | 1651679100000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1035, "YES": 663} | 0 | 3.873153316135923 | True | play | NO | public | 1645846646898 | John Smith | The question is resolved YES if either:
1. Ukraine reaches a peace agreement or
2. Russia withdraws because it is losing the battle (either on the front line or because of sanctions).
3. Fighting stops for any another reason (catchall in case the other two points don't suffice).
Feb 25, 9:20pm: Following orrukje's comments.
- If it seems like a long-term occupation ala Crimea, then I will deem this resolved YES. However, if there is a widespread insurgency, then it will be resolved NO.
Close date updated to 2022-05-04 8:45 am
May 4, 8:45am: Market closed! Now let's wait and see if there are any sudden changes. Seems unlikely! :( | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1424.8416412188449, "YES": 890.3543699992467} | {"creatorFee": 7.2819164358153365, "platformFee": 1.2238697739879738, "liquidityFee": 7.159312019590324} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1653381989132 | 107.15931201959035 | JohnSmith | 1651662625594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 43 | 1650314747970 | 0 | 1 | 1651662624175 | 1647912998264 | 0.03067013484349638 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NAaqwzdo8i85NLZyElHl | in-which-month-year-will-the-winds | 129 | In which month & year will 'The Winds of Winter' be published? | 1672491540000 | 0lYQHwVm0IVUYDIUx45ZUW69fVD2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.94161484363 | True | play | 8b2698fb13bf | public | 1645852319826 | Austen Erickson | Only answers with the specified amount of precision will be considered. (e.g. "1MAY2024" and "before 2024" will both be rejected). I'll decide on the market if and when a convincing publication date is set (by my own metric of 'convincing' - probably a publisher announcement, or if I am able to make a pre-order) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684212275811 | 280 | AustenErickson | 1670585629056 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh4rL7E4a0wJHn8bHmSYbcu9FC3IBgOjKnt9yCJ3w=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6f4a460ea146", "prob": 0.6009254251547383, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 84.88274358974625, "userId": "0lYQHwVm0IVUYDIUx45ZUW69fVD2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 56.370630017950475, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NAaqwzdo8i85NLZyElHl", "createdTime": 1645852320023, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.753", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212275000, "totalLiquidity": 69.17292630651203, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "99e57a3d7586", "prob": 0.061594856078360675, "text": "November 2023", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.735291187271284, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.67249481017403, "textFts": "'2023':2 'novemb':1", "contractId": "NAaqwzdo8i85NLZyElHl", "createdTime": 1645894928161, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.753", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212275000, "totalLiquidity": 10.676441720249183, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8b2698fb13bf", "prob": 0.33747971876690097, "text": "Never (he dies first)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 51.38432410086036, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.8746747172339, "textFts": "'die':3 'first':4 'never':1", "contractId": "NAaqwzdo8i85NLZyElHl", "createdTime": 1663031332027, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.804", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212275000, "totalLiquidity": 71.99567333693888, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 28 | 3 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543510}] | ["culture-default"] | 1670585628840 | {"8b2698fb13bf": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eyZndaAEOIv5P65DUuEh | in-which-month-and-year-will-a-drea | 204 | In which month and year will 'A Dream of Spring' be published? | 1672491540000 | 0lYQHwVm0IVUYDIUx45ZUW69fVD2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.846026073490958 | True | play | 185dd50c2033 | public | 1645852465014 | Austen Erickson | Only answers with the specified amount of precision will be considered. (e.g. "1MAY2024" and "before 2024" will both be rejected). I'll decide on the market if and when a convincing publication date is set (by my own metric of 'convincing' - probably a publisher announcement, or if I am able to make a pre-order)
Feb 28, 10:06pm: If George R.R. Martin dies AND the publisher or relevant IP owner makes a definitive statement that it will not be finished by anyone else, I will select answer #1. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684212238948 | 360 | AustenErickson | 1666870644319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh4rL7E4a0wJHn8bHmSYbcu9FC3IBgOjKnt9yCJ3w=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b7f2a407837d", "prob": 0.27126736111111116, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.170757866371403, "userId": "0lYQHwVm0IVUYDIUx45ZUW69fVD2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.24592393222012, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eyZndaAEOIv5P65DUuEh", "createdTime": 1645852465235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.505", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212238000, "totalLiquidity": 37.977430555555564, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "29bf27e2c5e3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "George R. R. Martin dies before finishing the series", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'die':5 'finish':7 'georg':1 'martin':4 'r':2,3 'seri':9", "contractId": "eyZndaAEOIv5P65DUuEh", "createdTime": 1646040603714, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.082", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212238000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "185dd50c2033", "prob": 0.6326039930555555, "text": "George R.R. Martin dies before finishing the book.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 144.589318312636, "userId": "eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.97281518616114, "textFts": "'book':8 'die':4 'finish':6 'georg':1 'martin':3 'r.r':2", "contractId": "eyZndaAEOIv5P65DUuEh", "createdTime": 1646056864149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.081", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212238000, "totalLiquidity": 110.18880208333336, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "346874acb5c5", "prob": 0.09602864583333336, "text": "2024/06", "index": 3, "poolNo": 4.381793516369657, "userId": "RkgxY86BkXapNguatNnE45ZaxQG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.24827320324927, "textFts": "'2024/06':1", "contractId": "eyZndaAEOIv5P65DUuEh", "createdTime": 1663868082241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.082", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1684212238000, "totalLiquidity": 13.44401041666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 28 | 6 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546249}] | ["culture-default"] | 1666870642921 | 1646040695506 | {"185dd50c2033": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26294940216066615 | BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz | {"NO": 7589.340007140841, "YES": 8590.887059280629} | 0.23964035091040534 | will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat | 1637094.0106981045 | {"NO": 4525.731099801656, "YES": 1681.8129805113185} | Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | 1767254340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4807, "YES": 1686} | 2.0614466060299753e-15 | 0.4351208542126539 | False | basic | public | 1645855380393 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Feb 2022, Paul Christiano wrote", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'd put 4% on \"For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built before the IMO is able to solve the single hardest problem\" where \"hardest problem\" = \"usually problem #6, but use problem #3 instead if either: (i) problem 6 is geo or (ii) problem 3 is combinatorics and problem 6 is algebra.\" (Would prefer just pick the hardest problem after seeing the test but seems better to commit to a procedure.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maybe I'll go 8% on \"gets gold\" instead of \"solves hardest problem.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My probability is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at least", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " 16% [on the IMO grand challenge falling], though I'd have to think more and Look into Things, and maybe ask for such sad little metrics as are available before I was confident saying how much more. Paul?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": I see they want to demand that the AI be open-sourced publicly before the first day of the IMO, which unfortunately sounds like the sort of foolish little real-world obstacle which can prevent a proposition like this from being judged true even where the technical capability exists. I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "etc.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.005355498934925151, "week": 0.009640350910405215, "month": 0.04957699174432545} | 0 | {"NO": 5670.789346573487, "YES": 2525.0275465638897} | {"creatorFee": 2203.8928481304515, "platformFee": 1991.3686558518543, "liquidityFee": 21.544748991979816} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 3886.363865367634 | 7924.827836912469 | Austin | 1720211790463 | 12 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 50 | 1930 | 1650304725373 | 11 | 292 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587326}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445084}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1663877286141}, {"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1667530996101}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1687708763587}, {"name": "Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI", "slug": "third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0", "groupId": "579c335e-dd8f-48c5-b8c5-9a432e619e96", "createdTime": 1690513095409}] | ["ai", "technology-default", "technical-ai-timelines", "imo-grand-challenge", "mathematics", "third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0"] | 0.3847952961921184 | 1720211787095 | 1720025582688 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9750829177520208 | AsIT0m99rqJdPqjdsY3J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9750829177520208 | by-march-11th-will-russian-forces-d | 1202 | {"NO": 180, "YES": 1022} | By March 11th, will Russian forces deteriorate relative to Ukrainian forces? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 180, "YES": 1022} | 0 | 4.655859314622752 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645855653369 | Charles Vorbach | Russian invasion forces are currently perceived to have a substantial technical and material advantage over Ukraine. However, Ukrainians have offered fierce resistance and perhaps more than Russian planners anticipated.
This market will resolve to YES if Russian military power is perceived to have diminished relative to Ukraine's by March 11th. If the balance of power stays the same or shifts against the Ukrainian forces then it will resolve to NO.
The resolution will necessarily be subjective, but important factors could be:
- Do major Ukrainian cities fall to Russian control?
- Are Russian forces able to move through Ukrainian territory with little opposition?
- How badly are invading Russian units affected by accumulation of loss and friction?
- Are Ukrainian units substantially degraded by Russian attacks? How effective or numerous are newly mobilized units?
- Which party is perceived to "be winning?"
Wars only have losers and this market asks whether Russia or Ukraine will lose more. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 189.7376082934008, "YES": 1186.9313560607031} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645936579090 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645855653369 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 3 | 1715657720589 | 0 | 0.9750829177520208 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08434922705544622 | SnkRWXAH5IabsGM81oao | {"NO": 332.0838425349182, "YES": 2935.6573717379597} | 0 | will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202 | 27626.43283832816 | {"NO": 4090.369030546349, "YES": 1495.063767701536} | Will Putin be overthrown during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4148, "YES": 1486} | 0 | 3.157324268561723 | True | play | NO | public | 1645862683849 | Keepcalmandchill | This market (Paired Market 1) resolves to "YES" if, two weeks after its close, Vladimir Putin has lost power in Russia.
Seems to me a failed war effort and a catering economy could easily lead to either a popular uprising or an elite coup resulting in Putin's overthrow. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4891.457631840677, "YES": 2696.425958656639} | {"creatorFee": 31.925806223325804, "platformFee": 3.042184403436003, "liquidityFee": 18.24801962006229} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672538687187 | 408.3828710093885 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672488806245 | 0 | 227 | 1650314599856 | 0 | 1 | 203 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487504}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}, {"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943401}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226740}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672488806088 | 1663888925444 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3499999999999999 | WLgkXR35zvDfqgoJgkGQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3499999999999999 | will-omicron-make-up-less-than-50-o | 50 | {"NO": 32.5, "YES": 17.5} | Will Omicron make up less than 50% of US COVID cases at the end of July, according to the CDC? | 1659250740000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 32.5, "YES": 17.5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645865762912 | horse | Resolution source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions, for week ending July 30th 2022, when the data becomes available. Resolves as "Yes" if the sum of % totals for all lineages labeled Omicron is greater than or equal to 50%. This will not resolve early if Omicron becomes less than 50% before July 30th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 40.312094967267576, "YES": 29.580990523476387} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1645865870434 | 100 | horse | 1645865762912 | 0 | 1 | 1715658263138 | 0 | 0.3499999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9430878179132376 | qQPYVPdxXuGPX7Yi3Bni | {"NO": 348.98520857559515, "YES": 94.92133148035327} | 1 | will-omicron-make-up-50-or-more-of | 991 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 130} | Will Omicron make up 50% or more of U.S. COVID-19 cases at the end of July, according to the CDC? | 1659250740000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 130} | 0 | 9.67010126391963 | True | play | YES | public | 1645866074766 | horse | Resolution source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions, for week ending July 30th 2022, when the data becomes available. Resolves as "Yes" if the sum of % totals for all lineages labeled Omicron is greater than or equal to 50% for that week. This will not resolve early. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.17152257579987, "YES": 143.7611213113615} | {"creatorFee": 4.389748282740419, "platformFee": 0.18603473771965148, "liquidityFee": 1.1162084263179088} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1659484092196 | 101.11620842631791 | horse | 1658372820186 | 0 | 13 | 1650314770879 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601093}] | ["medicine"] | 1658372818824 | 0.9838512341160736 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7909646938736469 | LNOKeYdTe4kurtorB3MJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7909646938736469 | will-russia-be-disallowed-from-comp | 1681.6169191844758 | {"NO": 447.3830808155242, "YES": 1141} | Will Russia be disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April? | 1646067600000 | ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 444, "YES": 1141} | 0 | 4.646104154681982 | True | play | YES | public | 1645877233251 | John Beshir | This market resolves to YES if one of the following conditions is met before 2022-04-01 00:00 UTC:
- The Russian team is disallowed by FIFA from playing in their planned qualifying match against Poland on the 24th of March.
- The Russian team is disallowed by FIFA from playing a subsequent qualifier after either winning the first qualifier or the first qualifier being forfeit by the other team.
- FIFA makes a statement to the effect that Russia will not be allowed to compete in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, for reasons other than losing in the qualifiers.
And resolves to NO otherwise.
Fine print:
If a qualifier is not played due to the other team refusing to play, and this is taken as a forfeit to Russia, this DOES NOT count as them being disallowed by FIFA from playing in that qualifier. It DOES count if and only if subsequent to such refusal and before the start of April, FIFA states it will not allow Russia to proceed to subsequent qualifiers or the World Cup.
If a qualifier is delayed, this does NOT count as the Russian team being disallowed by FIFA from playing in that qualifier. If the qualifier is delayed past the start of April, this market still resolves at the start of April, and will resolve as NO unless one of the above conditions is met.
If a qualifier is played and the Russian team fails to proceed to subsequent qualifiers or the World Cup as a result of their game performance, this market resolves to NO. Statements that Russia would have not been allowed to play anyway after they are out of the competition anyway do not affect the resolution of the market.
Actions by UEFA are considered to be actions by FIFA for this market due to it being a subsidiary.
Resolution and closing: This market may resolve early as soon as one of the conditions for YES resolution are met. Otherwise it resolves start of April. The market's closing date is before the planned date of the first qualifier. It may on a discretionary basis close earlier if it appears that resolution is likely to occur soon, e.g. if FIFA states they are making an announcement on the matter). This is intended to be a matter of up to 24 hours closure and ideally less. This is dependent on my availability and awareness of the news.
Own Trading: I may trade on the market myself. I have no reason to believe I have insider information on the topic.
Feb 27, 7:42pm: Requiring participation be under the name "Football Union of Russia" rather than "Russia" and barring the Russian flag and anthems is *really* close to meeting the third condition here. Ruling it does not, yet, in and of itself, because the name and label change would not stop them from being understood as Russia's team informally by everyone.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 5:00 pm
Feb 28, 4:57pm: Closing due to pending FIFA announcement, reopening tomorrow if it's not resolved by then.
Feb 28, 6:13pm: Resolving YES per https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/60560567 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 726.2152226555708, "YES": 1412.6483775418058} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000608276253029822, "YES": 0.0007937253933193772} | 0 | 1646072068279 | 100 | jbeshir | 1645877233251 | 0 | 10 | 1715657974009 | 0 | 1 | 1645990881803 | 0.7909646938736469 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1 | should-i-give-in-and-start-making-s | 188.1717333252289 | Should I give in and start making silly meta markets to farm M$? | 1647441971693 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.047906301180242 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645879662849 | Em ✨ | Even Kingsley went for meta markets right away. Maybe I'm the chump here?
Resolves to whatever answer(s) convinces me
Feb 26, 7:08am: the meta is important because it's whalebait | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6331306669908439, "platformFee": 0.40828266674771097, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647441971693 | 440 | hamnox | 1645879662849 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e9648fa4a9d8", "prob": 0.29647442478955616, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.095222668617577, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.804321904277906, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1", "createdTime": 1645879663025, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647441971000, "totalLiquidity": 35.57693097474674, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef4702dbe287", "prob": 0.17498440568191842, "text": "Never!", "index": 1, "poolNo": 22.564513415259032, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 106.38705416771835, "textFts": "'never':1", "contractId": "iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1", "createdTime": 1645883697144, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647441971000, "totalLiquidity": 48.99563359093716, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a2cd4d81eb5", "prob": 0.020517659888253978, "text": "Yes, obviously.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.47513105501202757, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.68204464629845, "textFts": "'obvious':2 'yes':1", "contractId": "iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1", "createdTime": 1645883730005, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647441971000, "totalLiquidity": 3.2828255821206365, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "81ed7c090dd1", "prob": 0.32870840189869505, "text": "They should definitely be silly. Whether or not they are meta is immaterial.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 46.003470627651076, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.94874952225835, "textFts": "'definit':3 'immateri':13 'meta':11 'silli':5 'whether':6", "contractId": "iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1", "createdTime": 1645884451576, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.903", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647441971000, "totalLiquidity": 65.74168037973901, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "873dc4d9f833", "prob": 0.17931510774157638, "text": "Don't just go Meta! Go MMMMmmM: Meta-Meta-Manifold-Markets makes more M$", "index": 4, "poolNo": 10.058155577845978, "userId": "EgcnTQPzboQzOGJ7ytgleYvhbik2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.033914435247915, "textFts": "'go':4,6 'm':15 'make':13 'manifold':11 'market':12 'meta':5,9,10 'meta-meta-manifold-market':8 'mmmmmmm':7", "contractId": "iO2A5wVZYugHSKXNCey1", "createdTime": 1646078108639, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.902", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647441971000, "totalLiquidity": 21.517812928989166, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1646078457223 | {"81ed7c090dd1": 16.666666666666668, "ef4702dbe287": 83.33333333333333} | True |
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