CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025?

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Matthew Barnett

From Hendrycks et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874), > Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics pr...

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{"NO": 520.5227440711108, "YES": 59.09658986511636}

Will the Office of the President of Ukraine go from "is" to "was" on Wikipedia before August 1st 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 522.5, "YES": 69.5}

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1645072645418

Matthew Barnett

Wikipedia has a page on the Office of the President of Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_the_President_of_Ukraine Usually, when something ceases to exist in the present, editors on Wikipedia change the wording in the introductory sentence from "is" to "was" to indicate that it's now in the past. For exa...

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{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

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["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]

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Will "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" resolve before March 7?

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{"NO": 11, "YES": 266}

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1645079854339

Jenny

https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t The description of the most traded MM market says "Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202?" It's probably just a typo and they mean 2022, right?... Or could it be a secret plot to steal all of our hard-earned ...

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["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

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Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows retrieving predictions by July 1st, 2022!

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{"NO": 1000, "YES": 3866}

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Lars Trieloff

This Market resolves YES, if such an API is documented on a site hosted by Manifold Markets and available to any member of the site. Inofficial, undocumented, or access-restricted APIs will not count towards a positive resolution.

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["technology-default"]

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Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows buying and selling in Markets by July 1st, 2022?

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{"NO": 1012, "YES": 1117}

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Lars Trieloff

The API must be publicly available, official, and documented to count towards a positive resolution.

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{"NO": 92.89885868949129, "YES": 259.6875855160364}

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Before July 1, will there be strongly implicating evidence and/or proof that someone did something that caused the loss of approximately at least one QALY of life in order to win an MM bet?

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{"NO": 125.25, "YES": 30.75}

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L

Resolves to YES if a market is detected to have resolved towards an outcome that harm occurred at any time before closing. If this becomes obvious, it will resolve yes early. I'm only funding buyers of "no".

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In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other vote splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

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L

Market resolves to YES if, two weeks after general election, analysis of voting reporting data indicates a coordinated third party bloc probably used coordinated voting to win an election for anti-authoritarian candidates of either red or blue team. I will attempt to be corrigible with my resolution strategy, but it m...

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{"NO": 98, "YES": 2}

In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other anti-auth-vote-splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

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{"NO": 98, "YES": 2}

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L

this resolves yes if FiveThirtyEight or two of [nyt, wsj, ap] produce a convincing report, or if another report is presented with similar verifiability.

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["politics-default", "us-politics"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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Will this trial find that paying people to lose weight results in more weight loss than usual care?

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{"NO": 296, "YES": 345}

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micheal

The comparison is between the: - Outcome-based group ($50-100 a month if they lose ≥1.5% to <2.5% of baseline weight or $100-150 a month if they lose ≥2.5% of baseline weight) + all the control group stuff. - Control group: fitbit, food diary, referral to weight watchers etc. The outcome measure: Percentage of patie...

BINARY

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{"NO": 423.2841766879795, "YES": 476.8488943419534}

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{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

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micheal

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["science-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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{"NO": 103.79511022307769, "YES": 96.20488977692233}

What is the current probability per week that Manifold implements the ability to partially sell positions?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 120, "YES": 80}

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CANCEL

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1645102307539

Gurkenglas

Currently you can sell your position and then buy a new one. Every 2 weeks, this market resolves NO with chance PROB. Else it resolves YES when this is implemented. I can roll whether it resolves NO at any schedule if I do the integrals right. If PROB is 20% for 2 days and then 50% for 12 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)*0.5^(...

BINARY

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{"NO": 146.97020106334483, "YES": 135.6471894305223}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

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100

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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{"NO": 65.5, "YES": 326.5461087364919}

Will Friday's xkcd have more than one panel?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 65.5, "YES": 326.5}

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YES

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charlie

This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/16/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count. So do comics posted up to 12 hours late.) Feb 17, 5:38am: https://xkcd.com/2551/ counts as yes, too. Feb 18, 10:58am: Oops, yes, forgot to change the copy-pasted date. 2/18/22.

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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charlie

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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{"NO": 92, "YES": 11}

If Russia invades Ukraine within 100 days from February 16th 2022, how many after February 16th will it be

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 92, "YES": 11}

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CANCEL

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1645104444406

Arie Arie

This market will resolve if Russian Troops are aknowoledged to have invaded Ukraine. It will do so with Prob n% where n is the number of days since 16th. For example, if the invasion happens on the 17th, this question will resolve 1%. Dates are according to Kyiv time. If no invasion happens over those 100 days, this ...

BINARY

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{"NO": 97.51504499763101, "YES": 33.166579566033036}

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{"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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What is the current probability per 2 weeks that Manifold implements the ability to partially sell positions?

1677279540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 147, "YES": 95}

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play

CANCEL

public

1645104480017

Gurkenglas

Currently you can sell your position and then buy a new one. Every 2 weeks, this market resolves NO with chance PROB. Else it resolves YES when this is implemented. I can roll whether it resolves NO at any schedule if I do the integrals right. If PROB is 20% for 2 days and then 50% for 12 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)*0.5^(...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-i-miss-my-flight

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{"NO": 66.34, "YES": 1.6600000000000001}

Will I miss my flight

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.34, "YES": 1.6600000000000001}

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NO

public

1645105845019

Em ✨

Closed end of Feb 21, flight within a few days later. Possibly I get COVID or am late or decide to stay here forever for some reason. Only funding Yes bets. Feb 20, 7:56am: don't think i got Covid from the flight here, at least. Still worried about that trip to the bar. Feb 21, 5:26am: i sneezed. grandma coughed. i a...

BINARY

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{"NO": 66.69012431379927, "YES": 13.28771312190326}

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{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

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hamnox

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{"NO": 82.32243806110412, "YES": 102.32243806110412}

1

will-the-uk-administer-a-second-boo

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{"NO": 55.255006185385895, "YES": 235.1728431637882}

Will the UK administer a second booster (fourth dose of vaccination) to their citizens by December 31st, 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 55, "YES": 238}

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YES

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Paul I. H

This market will resolve to YES if there are any groups in the UK where the NHS offers or has offered a second booster dose (for example here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-booster-vaccine/ or in similar websites), as well as published official statistics of any ...

BINARY

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{"NO": 94.36249262939326, "YES": 274.6718706366798}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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100

PaulIHuse

1656660140077

0

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["politics-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.4240635007313781

will-gpt4-be-announced-before-octob

195

{"NO": 105, "YES": 90}

Will GPT-4 be announced before October 1st 2022?

1645765140000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 105, "YES": 90}

0

4.842856042885442

True

play

CANCEL

public

1645116637584

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before October 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases. Feb 18, 1:43pm: I accidentally s...

BINARY

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1645209844195

100

MatthewBarnett

1645116637584

0

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will-ferrari-win-2022-f1-championsh

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{"NO": 110, "YES": 18}

Will Ferrari win 2022 F1 Championship?

1669438740000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 110, "YES": 18}

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True

play

NO

public

1645116672353

Gaurav Agnihotri

This market resolves to yes, if Ferrari gains most points in the 2022 championship which ends on November 20.

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1671028814920

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GauravAgnihotri

1671028842026

0

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will-manifold-markets-implement-que

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{"NO": 29.816138719457484, "YES": 171.2485344442851}

Will Manifold Markets implement question moderation before 2024?

1662340962938

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 34.75, "YES": 173.25}

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public

1645120423555

Matthew Barnett

As far as I can tell, Manifold Markets currently has no rules regarding what type of questions are allowed on the platform. In theory, this enables users to create assassination markets and other extremely controversial markets, albeit with fake internet points as opposed to real money. In the past, controversial pred...

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1662340962938

100

MatthewBarnett

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0

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23

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509683}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529558287}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions"...

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "politics-default", "predictions-on-predictions"]

1662340938248

1662407231273

0.9539263740570371

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will-at-least-10-different-people-l

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{"NO": 91.16581298741067, "YES": 643.159485075094}

Will at least 10 different people leave a comment on this question?

1645138740000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 42, "YES": 661}

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play

YES

public

1645126435005

Gurkenglas

Feb 17, 8:37pm: By the time the question closes in ~203 minutes, of course. And this doesn't count as a comment.

BINARY

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100

Gurkenglas

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will-manifold-markets-make-it-possi

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{"NO": 976.4412396382769, "YES": 820}

Will Manifold Markets make it possible to buy shares in decimal M$ by the end of March?

1648682383832

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 980, "YES": 820}

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play

CANCEL

public

1645127239383

Atomkrieger Der Kleine

This Market will close with "YES" if Manifold Market makes it possible to buy shares with decimal M$ before the end of March. Don't know how often I will check this. (Don't know if I will forget about it) Update: Mar 31, 1:01am I didn't know this was a feature before I created the market. Manifold Markets technically ...

BINARY

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1648682383832

100

AtomkriegerDerKleine

1645127239383

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will-anyone-be-alive-to-resolve-thi

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{"NO": 99, "YES": 436.37446789641825}

Will anyone be alive to resolve this market at close?

1650403136340

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 99, "YES": 461}

0

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play

CANCEL

public

1645128067316

L

Only funding people to buy "yes", as I currently expect we'll all be dead of x-risk by market close. If for some reason I die but manifold lives on, I'd appreciate someone else resolving this to "yes". Apr 19, 2:18pm: resolved N/A: when I made this, loans did not exist, and they invalidated the only possible premise o...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

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1650403136340

100.03452098996956

L

1645128067316

0

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{"NO": 240.4117498514297, "YES": 9224.915764412062}

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will-beto-orourke-be-the-governor-o

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{"NO": 400, "YES": 17.227678434535107}

Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?

1675231140000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 400, "YES": 16}

0

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play

NO

public

1645130189073

Matt P

This market resolves to "YES" if Beto O'Rourke is the governor of Texas on midnight of Feb 1st, 2023. Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm Mar 10, 9:57am: I updated the close date so it's the day before election day. I will still wait until Feb 1st, 2023 to resolve the market to give time for possible litigation...

BINARY

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0

1675355105185

552.5364966939828

MattP

1675355069016

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

27

1650313897156

0

1

25

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666273312391}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481313}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-pol...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]

1673752933956

1675355065084

0

0.0915185444022705

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0915185444022705

will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a

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{"NO": 707.3263448123001, "YES": 185.03428006556283}

Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' trade above 75% before March?

1645484400000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 687, "YES": 193}

0

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play

NO

public

1645130401398

SG

Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) trades at or above 75% any time before March 1, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-02-21 4:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm Close date updated...

BINARY

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1645579510347

100

SG

1645130401398

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

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0

1

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.015118442449761106

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo

13962.606882613036

{"NO": 7769.083015997353, "YES": 368.3101013896163}

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $900 on February 18, 2022?

1645214400000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7922.65, "YES": 174.35000000000002}

0

4.621245814512793

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play

NO

public

1645133314505

Predictor 🔥

- This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. - Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. - Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and, depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. -...

BINARY

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{"NO": 8075.647488033727, "YES": 1000.5501839980986}

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{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}

0

1645218061957

100

Predictor

1645133314505

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

20

1715657899781

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424704}]

["wall-street-bets"]

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0.015118442449761106

0.026824274726378182

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.026824274726378182

will-i-get-a-positive-cue-result-fo

653.335835139387

{"NO": 462.1678139814548, "YES": 32.49635087915841}

Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month?

1647584389209

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 467.5, "YES": 31.5}

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NO

public

1645134114542

Mike Blume

I have been testing >weekly and expect to continue to do so. My family has a lot of cartridges so testing throughout the market period should not be a problem. If for some reason I am unable to continue testing regularly I will resolve N/A.

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1647584389209

100

MichaelBlume

1645134114542

0

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{"NO": 8, "YES": 9}

Test

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 8, "YES": 9}

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YES

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1645135476491

Vivek Hebbar

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VivekHebbar

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the-us-cdc-will-issue-new-broadly-s

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{"NO": 88, "YES": 60}

The US CDC Will Issue New, Broadly Sweeping Guidance on COVID-19 Prior to the State of the Union on March 1st, 2022

1645768740000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 88, "YES": 60}

0

4.9053229625123755

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MKT

public

1645136602627

Patrick Delaney

Prompted by this Article: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fauci-says-time-start-inching-back-toward-normality-2022-02-16/ Guidance Must Be Found on This Page, from the Dropdown Filter: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/whats-new-all.html * As defined by "Guidance" given on the above link. * Guidance given m...

BINARY

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1646227301976

100

PatrickDelaney

1645136602627

0

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1715658321474

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492455}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}]

["politics-default", "medicine"]

0.8

0.5

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

this-will-resolve-in-the-direction

46

{"NO": 23, "YES": 23}

This will resolve in the direction first trade whose amount in M$ matches the % probability after close

1645793940000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 23, "YES": 23}

0

5.34520007008839

True

play

CANCEL

public

1645137226139

Undox

E.g. someone buys $M46 of YES. Then at close it resolves at 46%. Then it's YES. Subsequent trades at the correct guess are ignored. If there is no trade at that amount the nearest is taken. If there are 2 nearest numbers, the lower is taken as the winner. Initial pooling to create the market is not considered a trade. ...

BINARY

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1645137299547

100

Undox

1645137226139

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

this-will-resolve-to-copy-the-first

246

{"NO": 22.999999999999993, "YES": 23}

This will resolve to copy the first trade whose amount in M$ matches the % probability after close

1645793940000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 23, "YES": 23}

0

5.34520007008839

True

play

CANCEL

public

1645137309249

Undox

E.g. someone buys $M46 of YES. Then at close it resolves at 46%. Then it's YES. Subsequent trades at the correct guess are ignored. If there is no trade at that amount the nearest is taken. If there are 2 nearest numbers, the lower is taken as the winner. Initial pooling to create the market is not considered a trade. ...

BINARY

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1645210600284

100

Undox

1645137309249

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

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1715658748310

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0.5

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what-will-be-the-best-assessment-of

544.6624949091231

What will be the best assessment of the Free response feature on March 15th?

1647406740000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.746599182287035

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MKT

public

1645139406452

James

Hey guys, let's try this out! We will see how people use the new Free response market type over the next month. Then I will pick the answer that I think best describes the consensus view of this feature on March 15th. Cheers.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1647465339131

580

JamesGrugett

1645139406452

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

10

0

ANYONE

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1

1647323432961

{"b073712f2c8c": 16.139216751850704, "c418811b4c4f": 83.8607832481493}

True

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8116435432243614

will-my-manifold-portfolio-be-worth

449.37963295293935

{"NO": 78.75139584238997, "YES": 221.8689712046707}

Will my Manifold portfolio be worth more than M$ 1000 by the end of Feb 2022?

1646024340000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 71, "YES": 223}

0

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play

YES

public

1645141238185

Bayesian Philosopher

This market resolves to yes if my portfolio (including Invested) is worth more than its current M$ 1000 at the end of Feb 2022. I do not intend to purchase any funds before this market resolves. Mar 1, 12:51am: Resolving YES because Feb has ended (my local time) and my current total portfolio is $M 1,119

BINARY

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BayesianPhilosopher

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What would be the best way for Manifold Markets to make sustainable long-term revenue?

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1645143169746

David Glidden

Pitch your best ideas for how Manifold Markets might make sustainable long-term revenue. I’ll pick my favorite based on my personal judgment of feasibility and completeness.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429209}]

["manifold-investors"]

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what-new-manifold-features-would-be

4783.907002906704

What new Manifold features would be the highest ROI?

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cpmm-multi-1

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1645143340654

Austin

Our #features Discord channel has been popping lately -- everyone has great ideas and it's hard to know which to prioritize! Let's use the new Free Response option to gather people's opinions. How I'll resolve this: I'll select the feature suggestion with the highest perceived return on investment (in terms of making u...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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Austin

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True

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among-current-heads-of-state-who-wi

40099.3320947809

Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?

1652481489078

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.617529734964323

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basic

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1645143476070

Duncn

Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next? Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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Duncn

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["politics-default", "world-default", "improperly-resolved", "controversial-markets"]

1652480790177

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False

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lets-play-markets-against-humanity

45

Let's play Markets Against Humanity! Your black card is "Patient presents with ______. Likely result of ______."

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cpmm-multi-1

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1645143499259

Em ✨

Entertain me.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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300

hamnox

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which-option-will-have-the-lowest-p

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Which option will have the lowest probability on March 5th?

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cpmm-multi-1

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CANCEL

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1645143893491

Duncn

This will resolve to the response that points to the exiting option that shows the lowest probability on market close.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1645566711398

280

Duncn

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will-my-upcoming-post-biological-an

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Will my upcoming post "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" get more than 100 Substack likes?

1646108195762

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 242, "YES": 10648}

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YES

public

1645144158891

Scott Alexander

Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post reviewing Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines and Eliezer Yudkowsky's response at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works . The post is about 10,000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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1646108195762

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ScottAlexander

1645144158891

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47

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Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?

1646529463893

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 227, "YES": 4401}

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YES

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1645144435057

Scott Alexander

Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post discussing my thoughts on this tweet: https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1449411182931202062?s=20 . The post is about 3000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 101+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button ...

BINARY

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ScottAlexander

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which-option-in-this-free-response

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Which option in this free response market will get the highest volume of trades?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.6803370254378605

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1645144470217

David Glidden

This will resolve to the option with the highest volume of trades in its favor upon market close.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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dglid

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1

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will-my-upcoming-post-microaddictio

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Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?

1646529450564

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 151.5, "YES": 2387.5}

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YES

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1645144536975

Scott Alexander

Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post talking about ways that short-term activities display some of the same features as long-term addictions . The post is about 500 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart but...

BINARY

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{"NO": 444.9088311153665, "YES": 2489.5543958615963}

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ScottAlexander

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will-i-attend-poker-night-on-march

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Will I attend poker night on March 3rd?

1646354747820

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 25, "YES": 106}

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YES

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1645146289195

CompmanJX3

This market resolves to YES if I attend my normal monthly poker night on March 3rd. I love poker night. Reasons I might not attend include but are not limited to: too much COVID, childcare concerns, I get sick, I want to mess with investors 😉

BINARY

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CompmanJX3

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will-the-total-volume-of-scott-alex

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{"NO": 1046.9834720911676, "YES": 64.36429803356052}

Will the total volume of Scott Alexander's markets be greater than M$ 50,000 by the end of the month?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1049, "YES": 65}

0

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NO

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1645147273556

SG

Resolves YES if the sum of the pool value of all current and resolved markets that @ScottAlexander creates is greater than or equal to M$ 50,000 at any time before March 1, 2022.

BINARY

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who-will-be-the-next-supreme-court

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Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

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1645148539537

David Glidden

Resolves to Yes for the next individual nominated by the President to the position of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. Senate confirmation not required. Feb 17, 9:45pm: In the event of duplicate answers being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest instance create...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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dglid

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ANYONE

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["scotus"]

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who-will-be-elected-speaker-of-the

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Who will be elected Speaker of the House of the 118th US Congress in January 2023?

1673763857978

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.663750266385385

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play

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1645149961798

Sam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 118th US Congress, which will come into session on January 3, 2023 after the November 2022 elections, will elect a Speaker of the House. This question will resolve accordingly... ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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sam

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["politics-default", "speaker-of-the-house-election", "118th-congress", "us-politics"]

1673760573699

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do-free-response-markets-prevent-du

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Do free response markets prevent duplicate answers?

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1645150038555

David Glidden

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1645304586333

260

dglid

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which-team-will-win-the-2022-mens-n

14400.214262703757

Which team will win the 2022 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Sam

68 teams will compete in the "March Madness" 2022 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament. Whichever team wins the championship game on April 4th will also be crowned the Manifold Markets champion. Close date updated to 2022-04-05 2:00 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407154}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181994186}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

1649091412213

False

{"787538309773": 100}

True

0.5772539558368134

AOEtPSf5StcLYbiVdKYu

{"NO": 1302.843097346256, "YES": 27.27537566587273}

1

will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a

13220.129746529843

{"NO": 173.0622866026105, "YES": 226.5979204639616}

Will Austin Chen get a girlfriend at any point in 2022?

1665281737552

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 173, "YES": 241}

0

3.3522417735201606

True

play

YES

public

1645150393784

Sinclair Chen

This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point before the end of the year, my brother @Austin and a woman both consider themselves to be dating each other.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 224.18970089637617, "YES": 330.8595751159437}

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{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1665281737552

135.98687478108732

Sinclair

1665318900940

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

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1650313832826

0

68

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664408431406}]

["dating"]

1665234754560

1665318895971

0.984899779148315

JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu

who-will-be-the-top-creator-on-mani

482.53068785607854

Who will be the Top Creator on Manifold Markets on March 15th?

1647061140000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.814537026630999

True

play

ddb8caa3aa8b

public

1645150740590

Sam

"In a time of destruction, create something." But who will create the most something? This question will resolve at 12pm EST on March 15th. Winner is the creator with the highest market volume. https://manifold.markets/leaderboards

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647347926459

479.99999999999994

sam

1645150740590

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

6

0

ANYONE

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1

1646702074101

{"ddb8caa3aa8b": 100}

True

rBd5qjADeMNPa7FBpPGZ

who-will-be-the-2024-republican-pre

132814.68302333792

Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?

1725163140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1645150985925

David Glidden

Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.132285192126766, "platformFee": 1.1592427423996905, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

8340.00000000001

dglid

1720174011154

0

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213

2

ANYONE

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145

0.00958022865709028

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582303}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507166}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "E...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "magaland", "us-politics"]

0.19160457314180557

1720173992695

1675527446147

True

O53RNsraKqsmUtJm1GEG

who-will-be-the-2024-democratic-pre

4255.998900787622

Who will be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee?

1725163140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1645151177056

David Glidden

Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.756402885871227, "platformFee": 0.2419404177578015, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2260.000000000002

dglid

1720141639683

0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

50

3

ANYONE

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41

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431474}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484003}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.11689015948001709

1720141636533

1686700184592

True

fM9ZuPuNAUTcvuJjjpMT

what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine

22521.836659505974

What day will Russia invade Ukraine?

1645761780000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.627328703120467

True

basic

MKT

public

1645151405831

Duncn

As judged by EST.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1645740812600

2760

Duncn

1645151405831

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

42

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8b6cec5b6aa9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.500325024377033e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6499674991874594, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fM9ZuPuNAUTcvuJjjpMT", "createdTime": 1645151406077, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498216}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226932}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1645739838146

False

{"248315b4f2ae": 63.326910208019996, "6afd0e57b6ac": 18.266123317711113, "74b0e6c3fcbb": 18.40696647426889}

True

XXQsEDVu5t66ifVgJpfz

what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine-7b512dc6d31e

313

What day will Russia invade Ukraine?

1703448180000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.879110231567943

True

play

MKT

public

1645151563695

Duncn

As judged by EST.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1645740925764

520

Duncn

1645151563695

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

8

0

ANYONE

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491535}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226792}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1645151657725

False

{"aa185fe96037": 15.82200247218789, "ac8a1d7bf0c7": 25.463535228677387, "ea3949a0269b": 58.71446229913474}

True

3TK838NsHEsbUWMOP69O

where-will-the-epicenter-of-next-bi

200

Where will the epicenter of next big earthquake be located (countries only)?

1992920340000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1645151718553

Sam

Where will the epicenter of the next big earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or higher) be located? This question will resolve if/when this occurs. Earthquakes that originate on unclaimed land/ocean do not count towards the resolution of this question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_21st-century_earthquakes

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

720.0000000000002

sam

1704094268857

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

9

0

ANYONE

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6

[{"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1675915454636}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243657}]

["natural-disasters", "india"]

1704094268715

1654956733287

False

True

0.9260383995914006

xJCmsg3b67Ag9p3oODSC

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9260383995914006

will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit

24431.32634095871

{"NO": 900.7916143591524, "YES": 9041.88204468214}

Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?

1647202173338

r1GBMgrZifPSeju86daHiST0d9m2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 914, "YES": 9272}

0

4.620136490832838

True

play

YES

public

1645152008833

Kevin Zielnicki

I believe that the dynamic parimutuel betting system as formulated by Manifold (described in the site's technical guide) significantly disincentivizes accurate price setting and should be changed. I have written a blog post arguing this point, which I intend to publish shortly. This market will resolve to Yes if Manifo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1615.074959545971, "YES": 9810.622419122525}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647202173338

100

kjz

1645152008833

0

https://firebasestorage.…104-f1359af21c95

51

1715658909890

0

1647202150913

0.9260383995914006

x8Qw9rGwwyPS6xvtoPs8

who-will-be-the-most-searched-perso

254

Who will be the most searched person on Google in 2022?

1672549140000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.798447604137232

True

play

7a87ca785944

public

1645152643412

Sam

Google Trends tracks the top searched everything each year. FYI that this doesn't always seem to be about staying power over an entire year. The top searched person in 2021 was Alec Baldwin - search interest was chiefly fueled by whatever happened on a movie set in October. Joe Biden was top searched in 2020. https://...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672560238883

500

sam

1672545560750

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

10

0

ANYONE

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1

11

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104462042}]

["internet"]

1672545560590

1646279356592

{"7a87ca785944": 100}

True

8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m

which-film-will-win-best-picture-at

422

Which film will win Best Picture at the 2022 Oscars?

1648435800000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7974085882882855

True

play

dd853dc28626

public

1645153846191

David Glidden

Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:45 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.382009490902259, "platformFee": 1.5955023727255648, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648465338702

600

dglid

1645153846191

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

8

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1

{"dd853dc28626": 100}

True

HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB

which-if-any-cryptocurrency-thats-n

157

Which (if any) cryptocurrency that's not BTC/ETH/stable-coin will reach a market cap of $100+ billion in 2022?

1672549140000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.890826398246325

True

play

192a4ab8e46d

public

1645154131327

Sam

This market will resolve if/when a cryptocurrency that's not BTC, ETH or a stable-coin hits a market cap of $100+ billion in 2022. Resolution criteria: https://coinmarketcap.com

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672560441773

320

sam

1669345613370

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "88d6d41d1d2b", "prob": 0.0040569597143900364, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04488134684041284, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.017921835852949, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB", "createdTime": 1645154131501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1

5

1669345613199

{"192a4ab8e46d": 100}

True

GDL9uiD4pMJT7jnadCCd

who-will-be-named-the-next-007-in-t

3960.4165585047135

Who will be named the next 007 in the James Bond franchise?

1735786500000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1645154657218

Sam

Daniel Craig has retired as James Bond. This question is looking for the next lead performer in the franchise. Technically they don't have to be 007 or named James Bond as they could deviate from this exact formula.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5298291137872408, "platformFee": 0.006080320804722518, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1440.000000000001

sam

1717037210981

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

3

19

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a93c17b499de", "prob": 0.00153043203743257, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00417607540129139, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.7245144506393895, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GDL9uiD4pMJT7jnadCCd", "createdTime": 1645154657418, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

2

8

[{"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2025", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2025", "groupId": "44460e35-9a17-479b-9334-1176e654f299", "createdTime": 1704844871442}]

["new-years-resolutions-2025"]

1717037206142

1717033877920

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

True

prob-desc

True

mEWWVE0HThXYZa2xtgB2

what-should-we-name-the-manifold-ma

2372.596597405217

What should we name the Manifold Markets mascot?

1672560577591

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.656662352410222

True

play

ae8f42f05211

public

1645155158442

Sam

What should we name that origami mascot thing? BTW I do not work for Manifold Markets. I set resolution of this question for end of year but will resolve it early if a heavy consensus is reached.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7436136638419977, "platformFee": 0.4359034159604994, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672560577591

2299.999999999999

sam

1672162340553

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

51

0

ANYONE

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52

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529553019}, {"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904789}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "naming-suggestions"]

1672162340397

1658420476662

{"ae8f42f05211": 100}

True

0.07153865474507663

5qI3Q6NpxPgPyw4Gk1wE

{"NO": 925.3575159791374, "YES": 1327.8084714103031}

0.050960686144552854

will-elon-musk-run-for-president-in

3321.168147630866

{"NO": 635.5221064236471, "YES": 51}

Will Elon Musk run for president in 2024?

1730811540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 648, "YES": 51}

0

10.421941673806298

False

basic

public

1645160688854

Keepcalmandchill

This market resolves in "YES" if Elon Musk announces a run for President before the 2024 election.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 681.9837457302241, "YES": 78.8171695339746}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1000

Keepcalmandchill

1714325236361

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

52

1650313802698

0

35

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

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Will Manifold delete this question because I linked to porn in the description?

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Luna Nova

This market resolves to "NO" if it's still publicly available in a week. Obligatory porn: https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/933211530596597760/944097007490985984/FIwOngFXEAk1QZS.jpeg

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My friend Alex wants to go. Europe would be fun! But I'm already doing some traveling in April, plus I have Manifold to work on...

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I can't pay people to attend. Housemates only count as 0.5 attendees. I don't count as an attendee.

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Well, it seems like less steps to not have to constantly check your 'true' total balance, right?

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What should we call traders on Manifold Markets?

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Feb 18, 8:16pm: This will be resolved to the highest % answer at time of close. Feb 19, 9:11am: Correction: this will resolve based on my judgment of what I believe is the community consensus. See comment below.

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Who will win the Daytona 500 in 2022?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daytona_500

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112

Who will win the Masters in 2022?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masters_Tournament

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Who will win the Kentucky Derby in 2022?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Derby Close date updated to 2022-05-07 6:55 pm May 8, 10:54am: resolving N/A as none of the established answers won (Rich Strike, an 80-1 odds horse did).

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Who will win the NHL Stanley Cup?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cup

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cup

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Finals Close date updated to 2022-06-16 11:59 pm

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IMPORTANT: Dutch grading system (8.0 corresponds to A) Will be solved to PROB. Final % corresponds to grade Grades I got so far: - Exam 1: 6.8 - Exam 2: 7.1 - Assignment 1: 7.3 - Assignment 2: 7.0 - Assignment 3: 8.2 to clarify: the final outcome will be the final grade. for instance, 8.5 = 85%

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Jenny

Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes. The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market a...

BINARY

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1645580406094

100

Jenny

1645198252698

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

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1715658453953

0

1645579909588

0.9242348314288562

0.7813439519623158

axvtz5awPemjEP1Oz1pZ

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1

will-just-paying-people-to-lose-wei

352.1083450738919

{"NO": 46.85473934102285, "YES": 116.68154243612236}

Will just paying people to lose weight be more effective than paying people to exercise and join, e.g., weightwatchers?

1659222000000

4OrOE700Upe1pqoXXGfXvVVifVX2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 47, "YES": 119}

0

4.041727112612056

True

play

YES

public

1645199423204

micheal

The question resolves to yes if the 'outcome based' group has a greater weight proportion with >5% loss at six months than the 'goal-directed group' and no if the 'goal-directed group' had a greater loss. Outcome-based group: can earn up to $750 by losing weight over 6 months. Goal-directed group: can earn up to $75...

BINARY

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0

1679420668422

100.56858829066098

micheal

1679420666918

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_LXQhTNp6qG9hkUYlLkT5TGKVh70HHVQRand-JA=s96-c

22

1650314661742

0

1

23

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["science-default"]

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1679420664342

0.71

0.44301358972900057

1dUSMqPvl9QaA8lLj8bM

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.44301358972900057

will-my-grandmothers-salvadoran-que

77.63349631630734

{"NO": 25.36650368369265, "YES": 49}

Will my grandmother's salvadoran quesadillas turn out well?

1645253940000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 26, "YES": 49}

0

5.126653787770564

True

play

NO

public

1645201906367

Em ✨

She's baking a test batch before she tries for a whole baggage-full for me to take home. Last time they came out too sugary for her taste but she was overruled by me and bisabuela's opinion that they were fantastic. Her baked goods do not come out very consistently. I think she tried to measure her ingredients exactly ...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.00014142135623730956, "YES": 0.0009899494936611666}

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1645215897250

100

hamnox

1645201906367

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

5

1715656896704

0

0.44301358972900057

0.1298071375842767

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{"NO": 100.14915272890815, "YES": 99.00583910093067}

0.13110960881439435

will-the-biden-administration-end-s

64.99416089906933

{"NO": 46, "YES": 6}

Will the Biden administration end sanctions on Afghanistan?

1737392400000

DzO5shYhVmSfVw5zID4IC85Rxzk1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 46, "YES": 6}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1645204930283

Vinay Kumar

BINARY

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VinayKumar

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0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjk0ZMQoNpHDZVpUTtej3B-MapHrmjCU1kY5aS7HQ=s96-c

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1650313818134

0

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[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856969}]

["the-life-of-biden"]

1702293342234

1697240571939

PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y

if-russia-invades-ukraine-what-will

363.3466038570841

If Russia invades Ukraine, what will that look like over the first month?

1647493140000

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.764137279219686

True

play

MKT

public

1645207618813

James

This resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine before May 1st. If they do invade, I will wait a month after their invasion, and pick the answer that best captures the most important details of their invasion. For example, how much territory will they occupy? How many deaths will there be, roughly? And so on. Clo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1648933066571

580

JamesGrugett

1645207618813

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

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ANYONE

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1

1646895138432

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True

0.31082159446208046

EU9VzPhU6tJ5ey1jrumc

{"NO": 63.91703664752691, "YES": 691.8427536708107}

0

will-gpt4-be-announced-before-octob-627f9562190a

1243.0217861975013

{"NO": 154, "YES": 129}

Will GPT-4 be announced before October 1st 2022?

1664596800000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 154, "YES": 129}

0

3.1732745506006403

True

play

NO

public

1645209975923

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before October 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.

BINARY

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{"NO": 215.59987940761934, "YES": 183.3200970990906}

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0

1664937137303

141.8054927434452

MatthewBarnett

1664897421083

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

33

1650313861396

0

1

33

1664590966174

1664897418970

0.040000000000000015

0.5

BoV4z3rgwZU5AWvZyREf

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

markdown-test

10

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

Markdown Test.

1645210140000

TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

CANCEL

public

1645210102867

Luna Nova

[Test](https://www.google.com)

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1645210118279

100

LunaNova

1645210102867

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c

1

1715657736313

0

0.5

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{"NO": 974.9113250529256, "YES": 958.4653968520843}

0.5335560359710966

will-ray-kurzweil-win-his-2029-turi

8061.197822020943

{"NO": 560.4937510399703, "YES": 252.14826879121597}

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

1861938000000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 581.75, "YES": 262.25}

0

6.75141701514965

False

basic

public

1645215287953

Matthew Barnett

This question is a duplicate of another question (https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202) scheduled to close later. It is based on a bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor, found here: https://longbets.org/1/ This question will only resolve YES if the Long Now Foundation announces that...

BINARY

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{"NO": 740.3141312059963, "YES": 335.1472285683722}

{"creatorFee": 20.764926122629983, "platformFee": 3.2182532803948054, "liquidityFee": 3.147941610921278}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1000

MatthewBarnett

1719951086870

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

1

58

1650313893249

1

30

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446575}, {"name": "Gerontocracy", "slug": "gerontocracy", "groupId": "347c27dc-85ba-4c23-b745-f06653bf2de0", "createdTime": 1696127726699}]

["technology-default", "gerontocracy"]

1719951083752

1694134003590

0.22838499162689294

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{"NO": 1368.849493989955, "YES": 2394.172149498844}

0.14473339071956046

will-china-surpass-the-united-state

5296.5220991034375

{"NO": 128.3033086429658, "YES": 110.12374512634366}

Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

2209006800000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 131.5, "YES": 115.5}

0

9.178498085677514

False

basic

public

1645216841798

Matthew Barnett

This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: 1. Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund. If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion. 2. Military expe...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 168.16543937713777, "YES": 169.02166081101834}

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{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

0

1602.9558216539008

MatthewBarnett

1709912241863

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

2

118

1650314806513

0

90

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561736}]

["china"]

1709912241862

1676279609594

0.018574772469315697

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.018574772469315697

will-manifold-delete-the-luna-nova

668.2117252782948

{"NO": 496.7302054976284, "YES": 51.0580692240768}

Will Manifold delete the Luna Nova question containing porn in the description?

1645862340000

dT5MmfSYfBgV8lmMDbaX75WQs212

cpmm-1

{"NO": 505, "YES": 51}

0

4.702391869570166

True

play

NO

public

1645216901419

Ellie High

This market resolves to YES if Manifold deletes the Luna Nova post in question before it resolves on Feb. 24. I have not linked the question here to reduce the likelihood of this question being deleted.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 542.6778972268007, "YES": 74.65781514101221}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1645943335746

100

EllieHigh

1645216901419

0

https://firebasestorage.…f4c-2b6fc0493501

12

1715658938060

0

1

1645301904546

0.018574772469315697

0.05782518055034213

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{"NO": 97.13734040950087, "YES": 169.97238505392082}

0

will-the-7day-rolling-average-repor

125

{"NO": 45, "YES": 10}

Will the 7-day rolling average reported Covid-19 deaths in the United States fall below 150 before June 1st 2022?

1654146000000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 45, "YES": 10}

0

9.134661972781068

True

play

NO

public

1645217309700

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if the 7-day rolling average reported Covid-19 deaths falls below 150 according to Our World In Data before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. A graph of current deaths can be found here: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+dea...

BINARY

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{"NO": 53.38623418541525, "YES": 13.229512481569378}

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0

1654209069977

100.16568967647505

MatthewBarnett

1654209103904

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

5

1650314682613

0

1

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}]

["medicine"]

1654126583943

1654209102489

0.033886106540966146

0.9409444549728346

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9409444549728346

is-albe-from-a-dath-ilani-emt-in-qu

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{"NO": 1784.7882995092664, "YES": 1514.9556661147335}

Is Albe from "a dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court" really Queen Abrogail in disguise?

1645862340000

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 397, "YES": 2321}

0

4.630157286347018

True

play

YES

public

1645217669862

April

BINARY

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1645862486448

100

April

1645217669862

0

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

38

1715656976534

0

1645510739560

0.9409444549728346

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0.5191548089738129

will-the-state-of-the-union-address

3282.2102293335906

{"NO": 1660.9910263921522, "YES": 1366.7987442742572}

Will the State of the Union Address on March 1, 2022 include a declaration of victory over COVID-19?

1646283540000

fYnDM8j5CwN2iQXzBSM2AL2Nqql2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1684, "YES": 1365}

0

4.631496656933635

True

play

NO

public

1645218062209

KS

This market resolves to "YES" on March 2, 11:59PM EST if President Biden makes any claim during the 2022 SOTU Address that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, using language similar to "the nation has DEFEATED COVID" or "we can now declare victory over COVID" or "the long national nightmare of COVID is finally over". High ...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 2099.561011141862, "YES": 2181.595863450803}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}

0

1646302189486

100

KevinSmith

1645218062209

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxwZ_jPBfsoB1FvUOseOOrlhne8YHS6LVjDiBn-=s96-c

29

1715657866277

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479375}]

["politics-default"]

1646265210998

0.5191548089738129

0.366533992120947

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0.3361814790567793

will-the-losing-candidate-in-the-20

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{"NO": 112.49562027599102, "YES": 64.41959879076815}

Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?

1730782800000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 114.3, "YES": 66.7}

0

9.640768327025604

False

basic

public

1645218450813

Matthew Barnett

For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede...

BINARY

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{"NO": 142.25556788366686, "YES": 105.17937998948732}

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{"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045}

0

1000

MatthewBarnett

1719650251447

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

1

63

1650314779941

2

35

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507561}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "US ...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

1719650248335

1692812786004

False

0.9114570440490232

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0.954489328928008

will-i-win-my-bet-with-robin-hanson

1392.3886679328164

{"NO": 40.5, "YES": 218.91600336963043}

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

10413810000000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40.5, "YES": 223.5}

0

10.364629346571814

False

basic

public

1645218738258

Matthew Barnett

On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140), > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 118.68392144628137, "YES": 230.67576471621757}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

0

1000

MatthewBarnett

1696959343369

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

0

40

1650313866057

0

25

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587616}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}, {"name": "Robin Hanson", "slug": "robin-hanson", "groupId": "1f9c00a9-6063-...

["ai", "internet", "robin-hanson"]

1696959343085

1685282244720

0.5049381113571925

1laHSePRfUWsp34SXKkL

{"NO": 969.8379090725199, "YES": 1022.7321361308656}

0.4916630604902213

will-alcor-go-bankrupt-before-any-o

525.2020666666481

{"NO": 29, "YES": 66}

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

10413810000000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 29, "YES": 66}

0

9.585313689957324

False

basic

public

1645219126722

Matthew Barnett

Alcor, founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page: https://www.alcor.org/about/ A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw t...

BINARY

{"day": 1.0547118733938987e-15, "week": 1.0547118733938987e-15, "month": 1.0547118733938987e-15}

0

{"NO": 60.283148561600534, "YES": 73.42432839665611}

{"creatorFee": 0.9447570055435532, "platformFee": 0.13081735908588318, "liquidityFee": 0.7849041545152988}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1000

MatthewBarnett

1703830540887

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

2

30

1650313774519

0

21

1703830540760

1678087300064

oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw

which-betting-system-will-manifold

14176.826579887473

Which betting system will Manifold be using on April 1st?

1647384420000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.621661041922677

True

basic

MKT

public

1645220602520

Manifold

Help us decide whether to keep our current DPM system or switch to something different. You can influence the outcome of this market by suggesting an alternative or arguing in favor of one of these options. Close date updated to 2022-03-15 5:50 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-15 5:47 pm Apr 4, 9:40pm: The system in...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 29.166936804501162, "platformFee": 7.291734201125291, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649126599683

2080

Manifold

1645220602520

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

39

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "252a66354ba2", "prob": 0.00017225993645113245, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00020349621809460493, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.181128752515979, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220602696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

1647105371094

{"1aaee22b252a": 11.410964660886366, "318907641712": 69.60688443140683, "8037fb52af0e": 2.282192932177273, "e88b07107331": 16.699957975529532}

True

0.022896556417674532

ZycHLs7OZcCqaXBR2NMo

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.022896556417674532

will-it-snow-in-amsterdam-before-sp

152

{"NO": 147.5, "YES": 4.5}

Will it snow in Amsterdam before Spring starts?

1647730740000

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 147.5, "YES": 4.5}

0

4.8986941882442485

True

play

NO

public

1645222082253

Mr Stone

This market will resolve YES if there's reports of snow in Amsterdam before Sunday, 20 March. The market will resolve NO if there's no reports of snow, and it is Sunday, 20 March. Trustworthy sources are: Newsoutlets or weather sites (so no social media)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 150.25077371165182, "YES": 23.000195652428697}

{"creatorFee": 0.18, "platformFee": 0.045, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

0

1647756175044

100

stone

1645222082253

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

3

1715658351655

0

1

0.022896556417674532

0.8833217673570899

gmxF2ir2bjvMcdseogFP

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8833217673570899

how-should-should-questions-be-reso

233

{"NO": 31.000000000000007, "YES": 132}

How should "should" questions be resolved? (Judgement vs. Market)

1645833540000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 31.000000000000007, "YES": 132}

0

4.881942926813164

True

play

YES

public

1645222371807

Tim P

Yes = Judgement = resolves according to the personal judgement of the asker. No = Market = resolves according to which site has the higher market probability. I will resolve this market according to my judgement (though I will take the market probability into account). So try to convince me.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 55.678200404736515, "YES": 153.19681459054559}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005567764362830023, "YES": 0.0008306623862918075}

0

1645831199375

100

TimP

1645222371807

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

7

1715658528668

0

1645653490619

0.8833217673570899

0.033211847689831646

AwIxOt4It96jkUOsvlJw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.033211847689831646

will-this-market-have-m70000-invest

1173.989936115552

{"NO": 721.9095444521996, "YES": 76.10051943224846}

Will this market have $M70,000 invested in by tomorrow?

1645311600000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 737, "YES": 74}

0

4.675854817381456

True

play

NO

public

1645222685087

Duncn

You heard me.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 784.6474585240072, "YES": 145.430477939822}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1645320911751

100

Duncn

1645222685087

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

22

1715657721870

0

1

1645301718299

0.033211847689831646

0.12988010514866954

wdefaJkBvEwHIerl5j9W

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.12988010514866954

what-will-be-two-leftmost-digits-of

421.1073361319353

{"NO": 116.94041585537457, "YES": 17.952248012690127}

What will be two leftmost digits of this market's pool size when it closes?

1645505940000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 104.75, "YES": 28.25}

0

4.929415430193723

True

play

MKT

public

1645224760153

Jenny

Resolves PROB, with the value corresponding to the two leftmost digits of the pool size. For example, if the final pool size is $420, it will resolve to 42%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 125.82910284497895, "YES": 48.614169014579886}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

1645507668969

100

Jenny

1645224760153

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

13

1715658886085

0

1645505976300

0.12988010514866954

fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd

who-will-occupy-the-1-spot-on-the-o

1660.2194760621733

Who will occupy the #1 spot on the overall Top Traders leaderboard at the end of February? (Midnight UTC)

1646092740000

AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.666504469956749

True

play

36b1130ad757

public

1645229134039

Angola Maldives

Resolves to whoever has the highest aggregate trading profit, shown here: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646093055181

580.0000000000001

AngolaMaldives

1645229134039

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c

13

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9cacf2a266a8", "prob": 0.011132288167339162, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12599006065288093, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.191544911404446, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645229134212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1646058430728

{"36b1130ad757": 100}

True

0.9607494444806107

AJsqiBQnRXn7kO698CQt

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9607494444806107

will-the-queensland-indoor-mask-man

521.1474694793886

{"NO": 90, "YES": 388.85253052061137}

Will the Queensland indoor mask mandate be lifted on or before March 18th?

1646382495174

G0gHygtG7rZujueY0qEiTFzmGwd2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 90, "YES": 400}

0

4.714338640426776

True

play

YES

public

1645230985781

Oevrlrod

Queensland restrictions have included mandatory face masks indoors since January 2nd: https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/public-health-directions/mandatory-masks The mandate will be considered lifted even if vulnerable settings still require masks; or if non-vacci...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 469.3618259841272}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1646382495174

100

Oevrlrod

1645230985781

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjel1n-jCCkRpDMn2TG_Df-nKXC-RX8HUPhCFVW=s96-c

4

1715657698357

0

[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648191974}]

["australia"]

1645884430183

0.9607494444806107

0.3590390968670982

noAgHiU1Z3HDl65lfPMV

{"NO": 157.77787451508294, "YES": 167.90976040830904}

1

will-i-get-a-postdoc-in-mathematics

798.0076852328814

{"NO": 379.3042348632499, "YES": 275.00000000000006}

Will I get a postdoc in Mathematics?

1670734740000

HfRZfKEBC2ax3WpSCAhC2IIGzb92

cpmm-1

{"NO": 380, "YES": 275}

0

2.0962309326665705

True

play

YES

public

1645232440519

fierydemon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am from a Mathematics Department in the US which is ranked~50, and the grad students here don't generally get postdocs. I will have written at least 3 papers by the time I graduate, which is the norm for my field. My advisor is new but well-conne...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 520.8402621013377, "YES": 396.0312635937502}

{"creatorFee": 0.9203147883912963, "platformFee": 0.1168271887929022, "liquidityFee": 0.7009631327574132}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1675451659493

160.7009631327574

fierydemon

1670721637366

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwStHg3QkrircxX8QlBJACkyBCWJmhS-QbLDYdE=s96-c

18

1650314755201

0

11

18

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533599}]

["science-default"]

1670721637210

0.34

0.5

5IRAjudBRNMjtYki3Dbb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-manifold-markets-implement-the

20

{"NO": 5.000000000000002, "YES": 5}

Will Manifold Markets implement the option to have a market close at a random time?

1653947940000

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

CANCEL

public

1645232713383

Milli

This market resolves to "Yes" if Manifold Markets has the option to create a market that closes at a random time. If that is not the case by 05/30/2022 this market resolves to no. An example would be a market that closes at a random time (uniformly distributed) on a specified day. A use case is preventing the sniping o...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1645525236489

100

Milli

1645232713383

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4

2

1715656994242

0

1645253487274

0.5