p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.7434105433502728 | qDVa7sZc4cvd1V1PTd80 | {"NO": 657.1714850603839, "YES": 49.24241479189459} | 1 | will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b | 11234.753489628256 | {"NO": 224, "YES": 517} | Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025? | 1656625507706 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 224, "YES": 517} | 0 | 4.51189827450757 | True | play | YES | public | 1645071704385 | Matthew Barnett | From Hendrycks et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. [...]
> Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.
In addition,
> It's also worth mentioning the competition maths problems in MATH are designed under the assumption that competitors don't use calculators or script executors. That way, solving them requires making a clever observation or reducing the search space to make the problem tractable. With a script executor, competitors do not need to figure out how to succinctly reason to the conclusion and cleverness is rarely needed.
> There are other competition problems designed to be difficult even with calculators and script executors, but there are not nearly as many of these problems lying around.
The best model in the paper only received an average accuracy of 6.9% on the dataset.
This question resolves to YES if the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the MATH dataset, as reported prior to January 1st 2025 Eastern Time, is above 50.0%. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count. Only results that use a no-calculator restriction will count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 353.1181785188919, "YES": 651.4522499773103} | {"creatorFee": 4.709487662944766, "platformFee": 0.2568950743431423, "liquidityFee": 1.5413704460588535} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1656625507706 | 101.54137044605886 | MatthewBarnett | 1656617818935 | 0 | 17 | 1650314769835 | 0 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1663876552227}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1663876546403}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1663876555046}] | ["ai-safety", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 1656617817512 | 1656614917826 | 0.9747894940322043 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07284080573994492 | eaD8vEozGFmJwSaqdhRG | {"NO": 89.42496624384549, "YES": 557.9584785933878} | 0 | will-the-office-of-the-president-of | 1731.1988646171556 | {"NO": 520.5227440711108, "YES": 59.09658986511636} | Will the Office of the President of Ukraine go from "is" to "was" on Wikipedia before August 1st 2022? | 1659326400000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 522.5, "YES": 69.5} | 0 | 9.845847461914941 | True | play | NO | public | 1645072645418 | Matthew Barnett | Wikipedia has a page on the Office of the President of Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_the_President_of_Ukraine
Usually, when something ceases to exist in the present, editors on Wikipedia change the wording in the introductory sentence from "is" to "was" to indicate that it's now in the past. For example, the Wikipedia page for Covid-19 uses the present-tense "is" whereas for smallpox it uses the past-tense "was".
Of course, vandals can alter Wikipedia pages for unsubstantiated reasons. Therefore, I will only consider a change valid if it persisted for at least 7 days without being reverted.
All of this must all happen in the introductory sentence on page for the Office of the President of Ukraine before August 1st 2022 Eastern Time for this market to resolve to YES. If it does not happen, this market resolves to NO.
Mar 8, 7:00pm: Temporary events that break the streak for fewer than 2 hours before being reverted will not count as breaking the 7 day streak. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 557.9821381814113, "YES": 156.89380160746927} | {"creatorFee": 1.9817694349899297, "platformFee": 0.1807658848337373, "liquidityFee": 1.0845953090024238} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1663007527685 | 101.08459530900241 | MatthewBarnett | 1663005423451 | 0 | 37 | 1650314691877 | 0 | 1 | 39 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497384}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779947238}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226876}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1658568166993 | 1663005420407 | False | 0.012434921829238312 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.963406621108016 | w0d82HLfVxInDOx1w1LM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.963406621108016 | will-will-russia-invade-ukraine-bef | 313.0294790288808 | {"NO": 10.80122638698856, "YES": 266.1692945841306} | Will "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" resolve before March 7? | 1646089140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 11, "YES": 266} | 0 | 4.780803308479751 | True | play | YES | public | 1645079854339 | Jenny | https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
The description of the most traded MM market says "Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202?"
It's probably just a typo and they mean 2022, right?... Or could it be a secret plot to steal all of our hard-earned $M? Probably not. But what if it is?
This market closes on February 28, 23:59 Kyiv time. It resolves YES if "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" resolves (to any value, including N/A) before March 6, 23:59 Kyiv time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 52.9829788796821, "YES": 271.8566301896834} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1645581320198 | 100 | Jenny | 1645079854339 | 0 | 7 | 1715658862588 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511327}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227011}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645144738701 | False | 0.963406621108016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9155331998264751 | diOMgVYYyJlta1G8o6RA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9155331998264751 | will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi | 4940 | {"NO": 999.9999999999995, "YES": 3866} | Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows retrieving predictions by July 1st, 2022! | 1656626460000 | EhOWVuLBAjQlneCLZqNKKkqtDI13 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 3866} | 0 | 4.625342417105158 | True | play | YES | public | 1645084265923 | Lars Trieloff | This Market resolves YES, if such an API is documented on a site hosted by Manifold Markets and available to any member of the site. Inofficial, undocumented, or access-restricted APIs will not count towards a positive resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1414.214269479876, "YES": 4655.960022594751} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645175516079 | 100 | LarsTrieloff | 1645084265923 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjkNJjJ886qZi2QaVnBSlx-E8-XbPSY5W_m18U_Aw=s96-c | 16 | 1715658470123 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451156}] | ["technology-default"] | 1645148738141 | 0.9155331998264751 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5711674602954128 | 7Juayl0HH3SKalCwC4GB | {"NO": 1253.5252871697967, "YES": 31.997114429947153} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-64ff5aaccc48 | 10997.115788109646 | {"NO": 1012.0000000000002, "YES": 1117.0000000000002} | Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows buying and selling in Markets by July 1st, 2022? | 1654713851940 | EhOWVuLBAjQlneCLZqNKKkqtDI13 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1012, "YES": 1117} | 0 | 3.439012038741229 | True | play | YES | public | 1645084507204 | Lars Trieloff | The API must be publicly available, official, and documented to count towards a positive resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1431.134523376646, "YES": 1576.2294357105823} | {"creatorFee": 31.393192217621092, "platformFee": 5.232198702936852, "liquidityFee": 31.393192217621092} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1654713851940 | 131.39319221762116 | LarsTrieloff | 1654702212911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjkNJjJ886qZi2QaVnBSlx-E8-XbPSY5W_m18U_Aw=s96-c | 33 | 1650313812563 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444099}] | ["technology-default"] | 1654702211609 | 1654673582898 | 0.9811956806789226 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07517257648280617 | Nh28eGt5Ie0sN9RuQVUv | {"NO": 92.89885868949129, "YES": 259.6875855160364} | 0 | before-july-1-will-there-be-strongl | 458.0479303869362 | {"NO": 112.58522465944381, "YES": 29.395376370242445} | Before July 1, will there be strongly implicating evidence and/or proof that someone did something that caused the loss of approximately at least one QALY of life in order to win an MM bet? | 1656745140000 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 125.25, "YES": 30.75} | 0 | 9.183328369110903 | True | play | NO | public | 1645088411382 | L | Resolves to YES if a market is detected to have resolved towards an outcome that harm occurred at any time before closing. If this becomes obvious, it will resolve yes early. I'm only funding buyers of "no". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 136.53763712413985, "YES": 38.93903798901183} | {"creatorFee": 0.5800850726319309, "platformFee": 0.05937330583123453, "liquidityFee": 0.18106419206024527} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1660180687526 | 100.18106419206023 | L | 1660164613639 | 0 | 12 | 1650314559028 | 0 | 1 | 1656743242305 | 1660164607646 | 0.028255943875859345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010000000000000002 | bCX1BmJ4e6vqx9GcUzRq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010000000000000002 | in-the-2022-united-states-general-e | 100 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 1} | In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other vote splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election? | 1645775940000 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 1} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645089097225 | L | Market resolves to YES if, two weeks after general election, analysis of voting reporting data indicates a coordinated third party bloc probably used coordinated voting to win an election for anti-authoritarian candidates of either red or blue team.
I will attempt to be corrigible with my resolution strategy, but it may be refined after question asking. I expect to use sources like FiveThirtyEight to resolve this. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 99.49973869809911, "YES": 10.000100000000002} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1645089109940 | 100 | L | 1645089097225 | 0 | 1 | 1715658388379 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495103}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867073}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | False | 0.010000000000000002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02 | rAq46762LWcF0V7OFqvk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02 | in-the-2022-united-states-general-e-cd1ae8ba3938 | 100 | {"NO": 98, "YES": 2} | In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other anti-auth-vote-splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election? | 1662412204404 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 98, "YES": 2} | 0 | 9.892418164222818 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645089350313 | L | this resolves yes if FiveThirtyEight or two of [nyt, wsj, ap] produce a convincing report, or if another report is presented with similar verifiability. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 98.99593931561031, "YES": 14.142277045087189} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009899494936611666, "YES": 0.0001414213562373095} | 0 | 1662412204404 | 100 | L | 1662412189913 | 0 | 1 | 1650314775786 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507099}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867518}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1662412186404 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5592975728160479 | bbXbEKqt46tmIGV65cly | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-trial-find-that-paying-pe | 902.490627348696 | {"NO": 295.1301584558559, "YES": 342.48499744796374} | Will this trial find that paying people to lose weight results in more weight loss than usual care? | 1648718340000 | 4OrOE700Upe1pqoXXGfXvVVifVX2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 296, "YES": 345} | 0 | 2.812140946314517 | True | play | YES | public | 1645093208483 | micheal | The comparison is between the:
- Outcome-based group ($50-100 a month if they lose ≥1.5% to <2.5% of baseline weight or $100-150 a month if they lose ≥2.5% of baseline weight) + all the control group stuff.
- Control group: fitbit, food diary, referral to weight watchers etc.
The outcome measure: Percentage of patients who achieve 5% reduction from Baseline Weight at 6 months. If the confidence intervals don't include 0, it resolves to yes.
Here is the trial registration:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03157713?term=behavioral+economics&recrs=e&rslt=Without&type=Intr&draw=3&rank=58 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 423.2841766879795, "YES": 476.8488943419534} | {"creatorFee": 0.07996533670835561, "platformFee": 0.019991334177088902, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1679420399422 | 100 | micheal | 1679420458249 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_LXQhTNp6qG9hkUYlLkT5TGKVh70HHVQRand-JA=s96-c | 1 | 30 | 1650314666548 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530511}] | ["science-default"] | 1679420452168 | 0.56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45999940000449996 | lzd2HQPNnAY5fyvIW64V | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.45999940000449996 | what-is-the-current-probability-per | 400 | {"NO": 103.79511022307769, "YES": 96.20488977692233} | What is the current probability per week that Manifold implements the ability to partially sell positions? | 1677279540000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 80} | 0 | 4.837764195108821 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645102307539 | Gurkenglas | Currently you can sell your position and then buy a new one.
Every 2 weeks, this market resolves NO with chance PROB. Else it resolves YES when this is implemented.
I can roll whether it resolves NO at any schedule if I do the integrals right. If PROB is 20% for 2 days and then 50% for 12 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)*0.5^(12/14)~=46.5%. If it's implemented after those first 2 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)~=3% of resolving NO anyway. If I roll more often it keeps y'all more liquid.
Feb 17, 2:25pm: Oops, critical typo in the title. I'll N/A and remake. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.97020106334483, "YES": 135.6471894305223} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645104381619 | 100 | Gurkenglas | 1645102307539 | 0 | 1 | 1715658635118 | 0 | 0.45999940000449996 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5878036209245278 | 1AfU6E9invWQomAFi0Jd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5878036209245278 | will-fridays-xkcd-have-more-than-on | 431.9538912635081 | {"NO": 65.5, "YES": 326.5461087364919} | Will Friday's xkcd have more than one panel? | 1645819140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 65.5, "YES": 326.5} | 0 | 4.73501088376524 | True | play | YES | public | 1645102718686 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/16/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count. So do comics posted up to 12 hours late.)
Feb 17, 5:38am: https://xkcd.com/2551/ counts as yes, too.
Feb 18, 10:58am: Oops, yes, forgot to change the copy-pasted date. 2/18/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 98.90212839216353, "YES": 379.36697862115346} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645240209046 | 100 | charlie | 1645102718686 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 13 | 1715656888309 | 0 | 1645240178701 | 0.5878036209245278 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10368561040348491 | MBMJXxUJFYB5GtgxCznW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.10368561040348491 | if-russia-invades-ukraine-within-10 | 103 | {"NO": 92, "YES": 11} | If Russia invades Ukraine within 100 days from February 16th 2022, how many after February 16th will it be | 1653685200000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 92, "YES": 11} | 0 | 5.009246324010775 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645104444406 | Arie Arie | This market will resolve if Russian Troops are aknowoledged to have invaded Ukraine. It will do so with Prob n% where n is the number of days since 16th. For example, if the invasion happens on the 17th, this question will resolve 1%. Dates are according to Kyiv time.
If no invasion happens over those 100 days, this question will resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 97.51504499763101, "YES": 33.166579566033036} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995} | 0 | 1645195422024 | 100 | ArieArie | 1645104444406 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 2 | 1715658002623 | 0 | 0.10368561040348491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39201465790910184 | FxjWTcrdiVTZENgGu48M | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.39201465790910184 | what-is-the-current-probability-per-5d0019df26c5 | 246.1123524298081 | {"NO": 147, "YES": 94.88764757019189} | What is the current probability per 2 weeks that Manifold implements the ability to partially sell positions? | 1677279540000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 147, "YES": 95} | 0 | 4.802661999321694 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645104480017 | Gurkenglas | Currently you can sell your position and then buy a new one.
Every 2 weeks, this market resolves NO with chance PROB. Else it resolves YES when this is implemented.
I can roll whether it resolves NO at any schedule if I do the integrals right. If PROB is 20% for 2 days and then 50% for 12 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)*0.5^(12/14)~=46.5%. If it's implemented after those first 2 days that's 1-0.8^(2/14)~=3% of resolving NO anyway. If I roll more often it keeps y'all more liquid.
Feb 18, 3:49pm: PROB above stands for the implied probability of this market, of course.
Feb 18, 7:36pm: I roll for the first day. I'll take the next hash on https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet after 7:42pm, take its last 3 numeric digits as a random number between 000 and 999, and resolve NO if it's less than 36 (1-0.6^(1/14)~=0.036).
Feb 18, 7:44pm: Oh good, no blocks yet. I just realized someone who calculates it first could stake 1000 on the right answer. Let me think a moment...
Feb 18, 7:46pm: Ah. "echo _ | shasum" gave me f73de37d0c2aa6579b066a7eb6445bc1931afe47, my random number between 000 and 999 is the last three digits of _ plus the last three numeric digits of the next bitcoin hash after 7:49pm modulo 1000.
Feb 18, 7:45pm: bitcoin says 663, _ was e5p60g79u70956jdgiuhgcvisdfgzmghbdrgidzgbgfidvgdfghiudnhuodifuhn256 , no NO this time.
Feb 18, 7:58pm: I don't know why that said 7:45 just now! More like buggyfold.
Rolling for 76.6 hours. shasum 2b587fa54f699aeda9dd2fb473e1185fe452b54d, first hash after 6:03:59pm, 1-0.605^(76.6/336)~=0.108.
Feb 21, 6:02pm:
Feb 21, 6:09pm: oauhtieuthciugbuihtigsbdigdfgndiugsgih45thc35oti3fk0tui948 -> 948+660, 612>=108, no NO.
Feb 21, 6:09pm: I now realize that this market is badly designed: Whoever observes the implementation can immediately stake 1000 on YES, making our expected returns negative. Resolving N/A for our own good. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 188.60883860678427, "YES": 151.44907996662278} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645463481864 | 100 | Gurkenglas | 1645104480017 | 0 | 7 | 1715657853909 | 0 | 1645393931720 | 0.39201465790910184 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038182985961446 | yXUf6O0vcvERJke79Pdt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.038182985961446 | will-i-miss-my-flight | 78 | {"NO": 66.34, "YES": 1.6600000000000001} | Will I miss my flight | 1645513140000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 66.34, "YES": 1.6600000000000001} | 0 | 5.163193572497636 | True | play | NO | public | 1645105845019 | Em ✨ | Closed end of Feb 21, flight within a few days later. Possibly I get COVID or am late or decide to stay here forever for some reason. Only funding Yes bets.
Feb 20, 7:56am: don't think i got Covid from the flight here, at least. Still worried about that trip to the bar.
Feb 21, 5:26am: i sneezed. grandma coughed. i am so fracking paranoid right now guys >.<
Feb 23, 7:13pm: i found myself wondering if it would be overconfident of me to resolve this market several times today, including once while I was *on the flight* XD | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 66.69012431379927, "YES": 13.28771312190326} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1645672644993 | 100 | hamnox | 1645105845019 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 1715658953936 | 0 | 1 | 0.038182985961446 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8944351583744055 | OwSGRpz4FLySohxExtKT | {"NO": 82.32243806110412, "YES": 102.32243806110412} | 1 | will-the-uk-administer-a-second-boo | 381.2497125897217 | {"NO": 55.255006185385895, "YES": 235.1728431637882} | Will the UK administer a second booster (fourth dose of vaccination) to their citizens by December 31st, 2022? | 1656660142283 | ebX5nzwrs8V0M5UynWvbtcj7KAI2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 238} | 0 | 7.346939214205564 | True | play | YES | public | 1645107545537 | Paul I. H | This market will resolve to YES if there are any groups in the UK where the NHS offers or has offered a second booster dose (for example here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-booster-vaccine/ or in similar websites), as well as published official statistics of any such doses given on or before the 31st.
If there is guidance available by time of the market closing, but no available statistics, the market will take up to one additional week to close to await any such statistics, if there are none available at that point, the market will resolve to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.36249262939326, "YES": 274.6718706366798} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1656660142283 | 100 | PaulIHuse | 1656660140077 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giggq5WugVvHg1zwSevIAApkYf37x1cBnb_G_ZE5tpOSdLBZ4UeQzkcaMLMr-w7ITEHqpKTiVY56SOVhD3005d_daDQm2Zm7LXYtoEQhM4IjizV5Jhi-iRkMEDsKW6qr0deyFt0x55JzsyL6TxE930DcR3R2Uv5m3VfScdYdAEeoT8RuEcgpZPVyZV0nDRyheA3Zr2CVI3-PKzGCyXyftg7d9cQQA6azdcMI40fMQbNsq_iYNE9H5L3ooYsebtLBpQYrXaaZtbVnkQ4gEfK-eM_cH7xu85SGUXmEXV6hkMw1Iq1YRREJcHtVMfIpHA8Q6Tc-IcOQDjA4XVz70NtumLukmoKuax7OCWCwk59K4uIaQbfPeNs751ZSQRYnt8Nm7xma-Epq8nRRTVSOxrcfW9cZjd27_BX5TTA_tXzRmPGu2YcUVZgJcFUCNG30mlbCjXWPIZVy79ofPJiCUO7YxDL9Y7e3fopkWBZ_lpuQvru_wpQSVVVq4wEMkOni0kEnxqYEf736Eu8OUNACZxlCJhWbLEjosTT_vjv4FBzytYK5XkbPJtk29r_mS-IZEhrl9_B6Lu6BdlXuGMdNb2NRjaMGqq54yHBy9KH-VbryhHPOTEQTuDGafUhqKAn4Q-OfqsLsHTnxDyyD3Slpcg88_MT-IyF_XHFzd3jnxn5J3RsMieB2mpzBDebW5Dc3hn9V_eTIkABpCQzgbFBzZK4ffgDxSuyCf6igeDaIL_PAUr_ie-15oSbFm8byahuB45nx-EBGA=s96-c | 14 | 1650314565950 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484408}] | ["politics-default"] | 1651852797347 | 1656660136154 | 0.8720694757578245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4240635007313781 | qaMPgTbnuDbiHaNo71zo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4240635007313781 | will-gpt4-be-announced-before-octob | 195 | {"NO": 105, "YES": 90} | Will GPT-4 be announced before October 1st 2022? | 1645765140000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 105, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.842856042885442 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645116637584 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before October 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.
Feb 18, 1:43pm: I accidentally set this market to close early. I have restarted the market here: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-gpt4-be-announced-before-octob-627f9562190a | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 147.98719539372317, "YES": 126.98495974130165} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645209844195 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645116637584 | 0 | 6 | 1715658741458 | 0 | 0.4240635007313781 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09994540486323063 | AExzgYTrVYuZUhcEpUyZ | {"NO": 143.3186929525254, "YES": 1038.9221590670281} | 0 | will-ferrari-win-2022-f1-championsh | 1190.9301521901975 | {"NO": 110, "YES": 18} | Will Ferrari win 2022 F1 Championship? | 1669438740000 | XyPYs4jaySVJusiNh5EKolKy72r1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 110, "YES": 18} | 0 | 5.398007664047211 | True | play | NO | public | 1645116672353 | Gaurav Agnihotri | This market resolves to yes, if Ferrari gains most points in the 2022 championship which ends on November 20. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 117.13334282304079, "YES": 51.614300344962544} | {"creatorFee": 0.14768874277395258, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1671028814920 | 180 | GauravAgnihotri | 1671028842026 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgBTZrc3D25xBBs9Hu3ajvkLMfGy7-xZha66gPNYcw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313830614 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1669438415257 | 1671028839313 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.91678168787037 | uNgGlPiaZNPpqLAql6Xf | {"NO": 5178.3250420284685, "YES": 69.88745495121475} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-implement-que | 5464.42551260733 | {"NO": 29.816138719457484, "YES": 171.2485344442851} | Will Manifold Markets implement question moderation before 2024? | 1662340962938 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 34.75, "YES": 173.25} | 0 | 9.262284887326958 | True | play | YES | public | 1645120423555 | Matthew Barnett | As far as I can tell, Manifold Markets currently has no rules regarding what type of questions are allowed on the platform. In theory, this enables users to create assassination markets and other extremely controversial markets, albeit with fake internet points as opposed to real money.
In the past, controversial prediction markets have been criticized by the media before. For example, in regards to the Policy Analysis Market, Robin Hanson wrote (https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/policyanalysismarket.html),
> The media storm hit on July 28, 2003, when two senators (falsely) complained that we were planning to let people bet on individual terrorist attacks. The next morning the secretary of defense announced that FutureMAP was cancelled. In the intervening day, no one from Congress asked us if the accusations were correct, or if the more offending aspects could be cut from the project. DARPA said nothing. The next day, John Poindexter resigned, and two months later all IAO research was cancelled.
Augur has also received criticism from the MIT Technology Review in 2018 (https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/08/02/240354/this-new-ethereum-based-assassination-market-platform-could-cause-napster-size-legal/).
This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets introduces rules regarding what type of questions are allowed on the website before January 1st 2024 Eastern Time, beyond disallowing strictly illegal content. The intention is to test whether Manifold Markets will continue to allow controversial questions, or whether they will shift to something resembling Metaculus' moderation system, which requires questions to be approved before they appear on the main page. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 58.00258961134511, "YES": 192.5178031330267} | {"creatorFee": 0.1880198130829036, "platformFee": 0.0008119031560312351, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1662340962938 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1662407233362 | 0 | 22 | 1650314794185 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509683}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529558287}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "politics-default", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 1662340938248 | 1662407231273 | 0.9539263740570371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9567781951911576 | ws8C7e2TlgPhUDfaA9Nx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9567781951911576 | will-at-least-10-different-people-l | 1793.674701937495 | {"NO": 91.16581298741067, "YES": 643.159485075094} | Will at least 10 different people leave a comment on this question? | 1645138740000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 661} | 0 | 4.680948791668908 | True | play | YES | public | 1645126435005 | Gurkenglas | Feb 17, 8:37pm: By the time the question closes in ~203 minutes, of course. And this doesn't count as a comment. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 93.83008046570143, "YES": 728.3069600285188} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1645131996958 | 100 | Gurkenglas | 1645126435005 | 0 | 12 | 1715658896716 | 0 | 1645131928037 | 0.9567781951911576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2942941207464464 | GTZpLgYptN69ZXFnmItL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2942941207464464 | will-manifold-markets-make-it-possi | 5963.558760361723 | {"NO": 976.4412396382769, "YES": 820} | Will Manifold Markets make it possible to buy shares in decimal M$ by the end of March? | 1648682383832 | YpLKkxzqDXfNumWZy3ohcEEu8Fu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 980, "YES": 820} | 0 | 4.642565480416121 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645127239383 | Atomkrieger Der Kleine | This Market will close with "YES" if Manifold Market makes it possible to buy shares with decimal M$ before the end of March.
Don't know how often I will check this. (Don't know if I will forget about it)
Update: Mar 31, 1:01am
I didn't know this was a feature before I created the market. Manifold Markets technically didn't make it possible after I created this market but it's possible to do so I can't close it as No. I think it's ok to resolve this market as N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1089.093184384009, "YES": 1428.6639759176715} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1648682383832 | 100 | AtomkriegerDerKleine | 1645127239383 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjcPdQtIcmiPIGowUj23zmKFm4DOmLC0buhiIAg=s96-c | 22 | 1715657869152 | 0 | 1648681533021 | 0.2942941207464464 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.965461618879873 | RfZ4adypCaPSY6iz0iaB | {"NO": 119.99424650167174, "YES": 99.42110563186219} | 0.9712127934322254 | will-anyone-be-alive-to-resolve-thi | 933.3571582688462 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 436.37446789641825} | Will anyone be alive to resolve this market at close? | 1650403136340 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 461} | 0 | 9.439761598647927 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645128067316 | L | Only funding people to buy "yes", as I currently expect we'll all be dead of x-risk by market close. If for some reason I die but manifold lives on, I'd appreciate someone else resolving this to "yes".
Apr 19, 2:18pm: resolved N/A: when I made this, loans did not exist, and they invalidated the only possible premise of this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 99.49973869809911, "YES": 526.0481856487282} | {"creatorFee": 0.5407680847042171, "platformFee": 0.1323152720119236, "liquidityFee": 0.034520989969567845} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1650403136340 | 100.03452098996956 | L | 1645128067316 | 0 | 31 | 1650314591976 | 0 | 1650396432139 | 0.9712127934322256 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09036337369515246 | JcLEh6P9ztGM4N4aHoUO | {"NO": 240.4117498514297, "YES": 9224.915764412062} | 0 | will-beto-orourke-be-the-governor-o | 13706.61824372894 | {"NO": 400, "YES": 17.227678434535107} | Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023? | 1675231140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 400, "YES": 16} | 0 | 3.1857243181610198 | True | play | NO | public | 1645130189073 | Matt P | This market resolves to "YES" if Beto O'Rourke is the governor of Texas on midnight of Feb 1st, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm
Mar 10, 9:57am: I updated the close date so it's the day before election day. I will still wait until Feb 1st, 2023 to resolve the market to give time for possible litigation, etc. The next governor is nominally sworn in on Jan 20th, 2023.
Jun 1, 1:37pm: after some thought, with the CPMM markets it doesn't really make sense to close this question early. Won't hurt anyone who correctly predicts before the election if someone buys the probability to certainty after the election. New close date is same as resolve date.
Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 411.1882780441948, "YES": 70.73874544603268} | {"creatorFee": 4.249389316656594, "platformFee": 0.37220378203752, "liquidityFee": 2.233222692225121} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1675355105185 | 552.5364966939828 | MattP | 1675355069016 | 0 | 27 | 1650313897156 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666273312391}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481313}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431101}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1666273316503}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"] | 1673752933956 | 1675355065084 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0915185444022705 | NYgnfg9Ra1KM8jNwfAAu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0915185444022705 | will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a | 7329.639375122137 | {"NO": 707.3263448123001, "YES": 185.03428006556283} | Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' trade above 75% before March? | 1645484400000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 687, "YES": 193} | 0 | 4.669608435921763 | True | play | NO | public | 1645130401398 | SG | Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) trades at or above 75% any time before March 1, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 4:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:00 pm
Feb 21, 5:00pm: @Duncan has closed the market on the underlying, so I'm closing here as well. (I accidentally unclosed the market by mistake, so I re-closed it again.) I may wait until the underlying market resolves in case @Duncan un-closes it.
Feb 22, 7:19pm: @Duncan briefly reopened his market and the underlying went to a max of 73% before resolving YES. Since there was never a trade at 75% or above, I am resolving NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 850.5481787124008, "YES": 269.9575248880418} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645579510347 | 100 | SG | 1645130401398 | 0 | 15 | 1715658050806 | 0 | 1 | 1645486953349 | 0.0915185444022705 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.015118442449761106 | IAdZgjokW0HEbszWybON | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.015118442449761106 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo | 13962.606882613036 | {"NO": 7769.083015997353, "YES": 368.3101013896163} | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $900 on February 18, 2022? | 1645214400000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7922.65, "YES": 174.35000000000002} | 0 | 4.621245814512793 | True | play | NO | public | 1645133314505 | Predictor 🔥 | - This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
- Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close.
- Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and, depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
- This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
- Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8075.647488033727, "YES": 1000.5501839980986} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1645218061957 | 100 | Predictor | 1645133314505 | 0 | 20 | 1715657899781 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424704}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645210167607 | 0.015118442449761106 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.026824274726378182 | hMLVeWeUA0EQm6DRiLIn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.026824274726378182 | will-i-get-a-positive-cue-result-fo | 653.335835139387 | {"NO": 462.1678139814548, "YES": 32.49635087915841} | Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month? | 1647584389209 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 467.5, "YES": 31.5} | 0 | 4.711317947083273 | True | play | NO | public | 1645134114542 | Mike Blume | I have been testing >weekly and expect to continue to do so. My family has a lot of cartridges so testing throughout the market period should not be a problem.
If for some reason I am unable to continue testing regularly I will resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 487.9855492706973, "YES": 81.01684411005881} | {"creatorFee": 1.1619253621101524, "platformFee": 0.2904813405275381, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1647584389209 | 100 | MichaelBlume | 1645134114542 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 18 | 1715658543359 | 0 | 0.026824274726378182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5328715651692479 | bilL4EVGDmKS5pfKpx9a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5328715651692479 | test-8063cf3af596 | 17 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 9} | Test | 1645775940000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 9} | 0 | 5.965004907270799 | True | play | YES | public | 1645135476491 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.619638570110517, "YES": 12.410398885612016} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645934152229 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1645135476491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 6 | 1715658409285 | 0 | 1 | 0.5328715651692479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | YR7PUaErVWTdaTpSEcEn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8 | the-us-cdc-will-issue-new-broadly-s | 148 | {"NO": 88, "YES": 60} | The US CDC Will Issue New, Broadly Sweeping Guidance on COVID-19 Prior to the State of the Union on March 1st, 2022 | 1645768740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 88, "YES": 60} | 0 | 4.9053229625123755 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645136602627 | Patrick Delaney | Prompted by this Article: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fauci-says-time-start-inching-back-toward-normality-2022-02-16/
Guidance Must Be Found on This Page, from the Dropdown Filter:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/whats-new-all.html
* As defined by "Guidance" given on the above link.
* Guidance given must be broadly sweeping and applying to all segments of society, similar to "Guidance" given on 3/14/2021 - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/guidance.html and may not be titled something specific such as, "Guidance for X," or "Guidance for Correctional and Detention Facilities" or "Considerations for Institutes of Higher Education."
* This must be Guidance that impacts everyone's daily life and include recommendations to the effect of, not wearing masks, easing restrictions, encouraging people to travel and engage in larger gatherings.
* The Guidance must not be, "technical tips," such as, "How to Determine a Close Contact for COVID-19" or "Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing."
"Sweeping Guidelines," must be toward Fauci's words in the article, aimed toward the purpose of allowing people to,"get their life back..."
Feb 17, 4:24pm: Market will be resolved after the State of the Union Address to ensure there are no snafu's with any last minute guidance issued.
Feb 26, 6:39pm: I'm considering resolving this YES because of the following being released: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/t0225-covid-19-update.html ... that being said, it was not technically under, "Guidance" as I originally stipulated, so I may wait until actually resolved, until the actual State of the Union, or I may resolve this as a PROB based upon the fact that in the conversation linked, the CDC officials refer to their new recommendations as, "guidance," even though it has not been released as, "Guidance" under the dropdown menu. This has also been covered under the NYT as, "new guidance."
Mar 2, 7:21am: I resolved this to a PROB at 80% because of the article linked above and Biden himself mentioned, "new masking guidelines," in his State of the Union, which was kind of the crux of the bet, but I didn't want to be completely unfair because technically the guidelines were not listed under the link I shared. To me it seems like these masking guidelines are official guidelines to the point where they are public, but they are just not on that link. To be fair, putting it at 80% rather than 100%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 119.43272583550959, "YES": 87.40777997695629} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646227301976 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645136602627 | 0 | 7 | 1715658321474 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492455}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}] | ["politics-default", "medicine"] | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | YIyqkByFqeRWKGuWDj1v | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | this-will-resolve-in-the-direction | 46 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 23} | This will resolve in the direction first trade whose amount in M$ matches the % probability after close | 1645793940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 23} | 0 | 5.34520007008839 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645137226139 | Undox | E.g. someone buys $M46 of YES. Then at close it resolves at 46%. Then it's YES. Subsequent trades at the correct guess are ignored. If there is no trade at that amount the nearest is taken. If there are 2 nearest numbers, the lower is taken as the winner. Initial pooling to create the market is not considered a trade. If no trades are made in the $0-$100 range before closing, it resolves as NA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.52761904136237, "YES": 32.52761904136237} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645137299547 | 100 | Undox | 1645137226139 | 0 | 1 | 1715658317104 | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qkFuUSTCh4kJQKl43Nta | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | this-will-resolve-to-copy-the-first | 246 | {"NO": 22.999999999999993, "YES": 23} | This will resolve to copy the first trade whose amount in M$ matches the % probability after close | 1645793940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 23} | 0 | 5.34520007008839 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645137309249 | Undox | E.g. someone buys $M46 of YES. Then at close it resolves at 46%. Then it's YES. Subsequent trades at the correct guess are ignored. If there is no trade at that amount the nearest is taken. If there are 2 nearest numbers, the lower is taken as the winner. Initial pooling to create the market is not considered a trade. If no trades are made in the $0-$100 range before closing, it resolves as NA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.52761904136237, "YES": 32.52761904136237} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645210600284 | 100 | Undox | 1645137309249 | 0 | 2 | 1715658748310 | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI | what-will-be-the-best-assessment-of | 544.6624949091231 | What will be the best assessment of the Free response feature on March 15th? | 1647406740000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.746599182287035 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645139406452 | James | Hey guys, let's try this out!
We will see how people use the new Free response market type over the next month. Then I will pick the answer that I think best describes the consensus view of this feature on March 15th. Cheers. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.53350020363508, "platformFee": 1.13337505090877, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647465339131 | 580 | JamesGrugett | 1645139406452 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dbe899bedf51", "prob": 0.07919867256754339, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.090433684705884, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.304373411626305, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1645139406718, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.216", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 7.127880531078905, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "79393691f620", "prob": 0.016184360387556884, "text": "People don't like to lock up an Ante in order to give an answer, preferring to be able to sell at a profit once others buy in.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.26985458542048224, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.403932883372917, "textFts": "'abl':19 'answer':15 'ant':9 'buy':27 'give':13 'like':4 'lock':6 'order':11 'other':26 'peopl':1 'prefer':16 'profit':24 'sell':21", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1645187235086, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.215", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 2.103966850382395, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b47e362d5f90", "prob": 0.004213317540759661, "text": "About half of markets are free response, about half are not; it's just a feature that opens up new possibilities but that will quickly just feel like a normal unremarkable part of Manifold Markets. ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.057553590832315676, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.602368851647244, "textFts": "'featur':16 'feel':27 'free':6 'half':2,9 'like':28 'manifold':34 'market':4,35 'new':20 'normal':30 'open':18 'part':32 'possibl':21 'quick':25 'respons':7 'unremark':31", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1645209894618, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8847966835595289, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fdc0b4610fa4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "A minority of markets are free response, but the free response feature is unremarkable and just a standard part of Manifold Markets.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'featur':12 'free':6,10 'manifold':21 'market':4,22 'minor':2 'part':19 'respons':7,11 'standard':18 'unremark':14", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1646547029105, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c418811b4c4f", "prob": 0.7273522571483899, "text": "Most markets are not free response, but some are. The feature is seen as normal and an unremarkable part of Manifold Markets.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 111.28946137086186, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.71681623000255, "textFts": "'featur':11 'free':5 'manifold':21 'market':2,22 'normal':15 'part':19 'respons':6 'seen':13 'unremark':18", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1646547082391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 68.13693571290253, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e3fda5b44b18", "prob": 0.002489908764072285, "text": "It has confusing edge case incentives and people are hesitant about investing a lot in them.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.01617185557437938, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.478787240007121, "textFts": "'case':5 'confus':3 'edg':4 'hesit':10 'incent':6 'invest':12 'lot':14 'peopl':8", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1646582571926, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 0.32368813932939705, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b073712f2c8c", "prob": 0.16534782322003477, "text": "Most markets are not free response, but some are. The feature is seen as normal and an unremarkable part of Manifold Markets. There is still no consensus on how to handle duplicate or overlapping answers in a way that doesn't create perverse incentives. For example, some markets reward taking an existing answer and adding one or two sentences to make it more precise.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 12.511053435430627, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.15400941079556, "textFts": "'ad':55 'answer':35,53 'consensus':27 'creat':42 'doesn':40 'duplic':32 'exampl':46 'exist':52 'featur':11 'free':5 'handl':31 'incent':44 'make':61 'manifold':21 'market':2,22,48 'normal':15 'one':56 'overlap':34 'part':19 'pervers':43 'precis':64 'respons':6 'reward':49 'seen':13 'sentenc':59 'still':25 'take':50 'two':58 'unremark':18 'way':38", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1647322686361, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 28.10912994740591, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d56a450dc970", "prob": 0.005113660371642996, "text": "Most markets are not free response, but some are. The feature is seen as normal and an unremarkable part of Manifold Markets. There is a consensus on how to handle duplicate or overlapping answers in a way that doesn't create perverse incentives.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.03299541510293983, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.419411022741612, "textFts": "'answer':34 'consensus':26 'creat':41 'doesn':39 'duplic':31 'featur':11 'free':5 'handl':30 'incent':43 'manifold':21 'market':2,22 'normal':15 'overlap':33 'part':19 'pervers':42 'respons':6 'seen':13 'unremark':18 'way':37", "contractId": "FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI", "createdTime": 1647323318684, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647465339000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4602294334478696, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647323432961 | {"b073712f2c8c": 16.139216751850704, "c418811b4c4f": 83.8607832481493} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8116435432243614 | r1wb983nJPCjJebGctOS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8116435432243614 | will-my-manifold-portfolio-be-worth | 449.37963295293935 | {"NO": 78.75139584238997, "YES": 221.8689712046707} | Will my Manifold portfolio be worth more than M$ 1000 by the end of Feb 2022? | 1646024340000 | FX8JTczvl7NejJmqB4DVO5NgR1X2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 71, "YES": 223} | 0 | 4.768739059342177 | True | play | YES | public | 1645141238185 | Bayesian Philosopher | This market resolves to yes if my portfolio (including Invested) is worth more than its current M$ 1000 at the end of Feb 2022. I do not intend to purchase any funds before this market resolves.
Mar 1, 12:51am: Resolving YES because Feb has ended (my local time) and my current total portfolio is $M 1,119 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 130.46983149708063, "YES": 270.8335824715373} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646114045740 | 100 | BayesianPhilosopher | 1645141238185 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwhr0P01elPDQx93GRYMErBtr8HdMixiP1N8p1v=s96-c | 13 | 1715658757472 | 0 | 1 | 1646012241460 | 0.8116435432243614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9 | what-would-be-the-best-way-for-mani | 98 | What would be the best way for Manifold Markets to make sustainable long-term revenue? | 1646110740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.025648926905971 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645143169746 | David Glidden | Pitch your best ideas for how Manifold Markets might make sustainable long-term revenue. I’ll pick my favorite based on my personal judgment of feasibility and completeness. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646180884820 | 380 | dglid | 1645143169746 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "871617ff3bae", "prob": 0.2603082049146189, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.53052105410179, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.65632862733564, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9", "createdTime": 1645143169923, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.4", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646180884000, "totalLiquidity": 31.23698458975427, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1b6e70553a9a", "prob": 0.5443565181174511, "text": "Build a fun and useful site. Sell play money.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 99.60572258670608, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.37311439162696, "textFts": "'build':1 'fun':3 'money':9 'play':8 'sell':7 'site':6 'use':5", "contractId": "MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9", "createdTime": 1645145350060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.404", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646180884000, "totalLiquidity": 91.12869637650978, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6dd799e35f60", "prob": 0.16951270304039986, "text": "Premium service for corporates. That allow staff to make predictions about future strategies.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 15.316758767533672, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.04082796673744, "textFts": "'allow':6 'corpor':4 'futur':12 'make':9 'predict':10 'premium':1 'servic':2 'staff':7 'strategi':13", "contractId": "MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9", "createdTime": 1646077250723, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.404", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646180884000, "totalLiquidity": 33.902540608079974, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "01c9e0eee064", "prob": 0.012807163681799252, "text": "As a kind of survey / market research tool for marketing companies", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.17504902193221553, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.493006316579962, "textFts": "'compani':11 'kind':3 'market':6,10 'research':7 'survey':5 'tool':8", "contractId": "MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9", "createdTime": 1646077274294, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.404", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646180884000, "totalLiquidity": 1.5368596418159104, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "889eb1c901fd", "prob": 0.013015410245730948, "text": "Limit to 10 trades a month for free with 10M free per month, pay $5/m for more, and 500M included in that.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.17935473744425814, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.600828449872983, "textFts": "'10':3 '10m':10 '5/m':15 '500m':19 'free':8,11 'includ':20 'limit':1 'month':6,13 'pay':14 'per':12 'trade':4", "contractId": "MdC3bL4uC1qHnjD0uzS9", "createdTime": 1646079346993, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.404", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646180884000, "totalLiquidity": 1.5618492294877138, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429209}] | ["manifold-investors"] | 1646108053222 | {"1b6e70553a9a": 76.25437572928821, "6dd799e35f60": 23.74562427071179} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rO6xyrfNaDpqQwbubXZa | what-new-manifold-features-would-be | 4783.907002906704 | What new Manifold features would be the highest ROI? | 1645603140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.633587628043504 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1645143340654 | Austin | Our #features Discord channel has been popping lately -- everyone has great ideas and it's hard to know which to prioritize! Let's use the new Free Response option to gather people's opinions.
How I'll resolve this: I'll select the feature suggestion with the highest perceived return on investment (in terms of making users happy per dev time spent) as the winner.
We may be implementing these features throughout the week; if a feature is gets implemented between market creation and market resolution, it's still fair game to be chosen as the winner.
Mar 6, 12:14am: So many great ideas, so hard to choose! Here's what I landed on:
40%: The ability to take out a limited loan for each market - this was the headline feature of this week, and although it's too early to say for sure, feedback and traffic numbers have been quite positive so far
20%: Sort my markets by expected payout or M$ invested - this was implemented, and very easy to do
20%: Show the site's total user count - this was implemented, and very easy to do (see https://manifold.markets/analytics )
10%: Summary statistics to judge a market maker's reputation - this had the largest portion of the pool by far, but it's not clear to me exactly which statistics to summarize
5%: Open-sourcing the codebase. - not implemented, but pet proposal of Austin's
5%: Make market creation more intuitive or reduce the number of clicks - not implemented, but will probably be soon.
I realize my original resolution specified that I would only pick a single winner, and I ended up choosing a bunch; in my defense, the "multi-resolve" ability had not yet been implemented at the time when I posed this question, and it felt more correct to me to resolve this way than picking a single one. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646554862277 | 2880.0000000000023 | Austin | 1645143340654 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 44 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e7b2acea57e4", "prob": 0.0013901201404896435, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.002815568713707821, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.0225983733618964, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rO6xyrfNaDpqQwbubXZa", "createdTime": 1645143340835, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:41.419", "probChangeDay": 0, 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WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz | among-current-heads-of-state-who-wi | 40099.3320947809 | Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die? | 1652481489078 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.617529734964323 | True | basic | 5f153a5cd07c | public | 1645143476070 | Duncn | Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next?
Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 564.0230368145849, "platformFee": 141.00575920364622, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652481489078 | 3540.0000000000014 | Duncn | 1673776273018 | 0 | 60 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e4e6c0c8cf00", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.379579330518922e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.537904137258587, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz", "createdTime": 1645143476242, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:31.812", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 0.005379310344827586, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "602c52aecfa3", "prob": 0.0006718824266367245, "text": "Queen Elizabeth", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.012783786098392766, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.014036371090725, "textFts": 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0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 0.06659551943502103, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e27e82c0ed29", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "test", "index": 25, "poolNo": 9.379779345520174e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9378841367585621, "textFts": "'test':1", "contractId": "WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz", "createdTime": 1648008677396, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009379310344827587, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9303be425236", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Yahya Sinwar (Gaza)", "index": 26, "poolNo": 5.379579330518922e-05, "userId": "pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.537904137258587, "textFts": "'gaza':3 'sinwar':2 'yahya':1", "contractId": "WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz", "createdTime": 1652014476012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.135", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 0.005379310344827586, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5f153a5cd07c", "prob": 0.20098789878403767, "text": "President of the United Arab Emirates Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan", "index": 27, "poolNo": 69.93718775839574, "userId": "2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 278.02996937648993, "textFts": "'al':10 'arab':5 'bin':8 'emir':6 'khalifa':7 'nahyan':11 'presid':1 'unit':4 'zay':9", "contractId": "WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz", "createdTime": 1652438268947, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.135", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 139.44401805292543, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a65460d48505", "prob": 0.25404324636086417, "text": "A possible arbitrage situation ", "index": 28, "poolNo": 7.975010363697861, "userId": "jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.417323335146044, "textFts": "'arbitrag':3 'possibl':2 'situat':4", "contractId": "WadrFvK6DUoa0z4RrXQz", "createdTime": 1652474538244, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.141", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652481489000, "totalLiquidity": 13.665774631825796, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490510}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418375}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1663436142270}, {"name": "Controversial markets", "slug": "controversial-markets", "groupId": "545bcc4e-5891-46c0-9c1f-c802bab63d8e", "createdTime": 1689289532841}] | ["politics-default", "world-default", "improperly-resolved", "controversial-markets"] | 1652480790177 | 1673776265464 | False | {"5f153a5cd07c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8RtBOhrmdHVmsNgtulCE | lets-play-markets-against-humanity | 45 | Let's play Markets Against Humanity! Your black card is "Patient presents with ______. Likely result of ______." | 1645343940000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.35653443837104 | True | play | 69680a4bde64 | public | 1645143499259 | Em ✨ | Entertain me. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645323851152 | 300 | hamnox | 1645143499259 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "38371d270572", "prob": 0.1111111111111111, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.809176411426013, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.473411291408105, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8RtBOhrmdHVmsNgtulCE", "createdTime": 1645143499456, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645323851000, "totalLiquidity": 19.25925925925926, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "74b003459688", "prob": 0.19753086419753085, "text": "Poverty\nPurchasing so much M$", "index": 1, "poolNo": 16.98714389764962, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.01027208420157, "textFts": "'m':5 'much':4 'poverti':1 'purchas':2", "contractId": "8RtBOhrmdHVmsNgtulCE", "createdTime": 1645143626895, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.798", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645323851000, "totalLiquidity": 34.23868312757202, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "69680a4bde64", "prob": 0.6913580246913581, "text": "heart and lungs having swapped places\ninsider trading", "index": 2, "poolNo": 117.02302938058418, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.24242383061792, "textFts": "'heart':1 'insid':7 'lung':3 'place':6 'swap':5 'trade':8", "contractId": "8RtBOhrmdHVmsNgtulCE", "createdTime": 1645155037954, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.798", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645323851000, "totalLiquidity": 78.18930041152262, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"69680a4bde64": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aU6KJmh6qB4yJq4WBEgI | which-option-will-have-the-lowest-p | 62 | Which option will have the lowest probability on March 5th? | 1646510580000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.303304908059076 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645143893491 | Duncn | This will resolve to the response that points to the exiting option that shows the lowest probability on market close. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645566711398 | 280 | Duncn | 1645143893491 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4032d720a974", "prob": 0.36, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.8, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 83.2, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aU6KJmh6qB4yJq4WBEgI", "createdTime": 1645143893693, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.979", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645566711000, "totalLiquidity": 62.4, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7be393b67895", "prob": 0.28, "text": "Option A", "index": 1, "poolNo": 37.2502779838828, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.7864291014129, "textFts": "'option':1", "contractId": "aU6KJmh6qB4yJq4WBEgI", "createdTime": 1645143920956, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.979", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645566711000, "totalLiquidity": 59.73333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f0c603962eb5", "prob": 0.36, "text": "Option C", "index": 2, "poolNo": 46.8, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.2, "textFts": "'c':2 'option':1", "contractId": "aU6KJmh6qB4yJq4WBEgI", "createdTime": 1645143934287, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.977", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645566711000, "totalLiquidity": 62.4, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9963057484553021 | 5uJ0pfE0zZr2OmYLRMYA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9963057484553021 | will-my-upcoming-post-biological-an | 18458.326895393282 | {"NO": 506.37148457785395, "YES": 10449.301620028862} | Will my upcoming post "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" get more than 100 Substack likes? | 1646108195762 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 242, "YES": 10648} | 0 | 4.619673771885533 | True | play | YES | public | 1645144158891 | Scott Alexander | Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post reviewing Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines and Eliezer Yudkowsky's response at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works . The post is about 10,000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).
Feb 17, 4:30pm: On rereading this, the title and description are slightly different; I'm going to go with the title and say this only wins if it gets MORE THAN 100 likes, ie 101+ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 665.8897605106272, "YES": 10935.418872324797} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646108195762 | 100 | ScottAlexander | 1645144158891 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 47 | 1715657000294 | 0 | 1646103143789 | 0.9963057484553021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9755551145343346 | 72cWjEAw1iK4LKGLbRfs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9755551145343346 | will-my-upcoming-post-what-are-we-a | 5900.293865892451 | {"NO": 226.6340283432072, "YES": 4373.072105764342} | Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes? | 1646529463893 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 227, "YES": 4401} | 0 | 4.62593094878271 | True | play | YES | public | 1645144435057 | Scott Alexander | Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post discussing my thoughts on this tweet: https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1449411182931202062?s=20 . The post is about 3000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 101+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 719.1577817674678, "YES": 4543.139641754718} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646529463893 | 100 | ScottAlexander | 1645144435057 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 42 | 1715657610666 | 0 | 1646241367744 | 0.9755551145343346 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4 | which-option-in-this-free-response | 956.5512402808816 | Which option in this free response market will get the highest volume of trades? | 1645765140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6803370254378605 | True | play | 744da4af6741 | public | 1645144470217 | David Glidden | This will resolve to the option with the highest volume of trades in its favor upon market close. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645788625279 | 479.99999999999994 | dglid | 1645144470217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2e0ccf355cf3", "prob": 0.0045475525109402535, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.029858445749383067, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.53596914558711, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645144470403, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4417622439199103, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a5b2f7ff65fb", "prob": 0.002000923104813712, "text": "Here’s an attractive answer", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.012287222477431832, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.1284897258580155, "textFts": "'answer':5 'attract':4", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645144503412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 0.27441231151730905, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d1ad28b426ab", "prob": 0.0023647273056889317, "text": "Here’s an even more attractive answer", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.015789155229390457, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.661156296961132, "textFts": "'answer':7 'attract':6 'even':4", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645144519930, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 0.32430545906591063, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "695ef43a8222", "prob": 0.02505796360837381, "text": "This one", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.8723179538177988, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.93968702196921, "textFts": "'one':2", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645145786783, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.191", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 5.441157812104027, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4aa0e1e4a6c2", "prob": 0.004001846209627424, "text": "Buy this if u <3 manifold markets", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.02464178693385043, "userId": "PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.132962889269988, "textFts": "'3':5 'buy':1 'manifold':6 'market':7 'u':4", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645596479453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.19", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3887507746495212, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "744da4af6741", "prob": 0.8952523920654859, "text": "The next one (#6)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 29.747856287832374, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.480601464957834, "textFts": "'6':4 'next':2 'one':3", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645604112107, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.191", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 10.175481913638512, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a165a73f11fa", "prob": 0.06677459519506995, "text": "Schelling point", "index": 6, "poolNo": 3.1640786081474928, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.22038847703973, "textFts": "'point':2 'schell':1", "contractId": "YznALHUFEPFbB4mOtxN4", "createdTime": 1645620045253, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.191", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645788625000, "totalLiquidity": 11.828642577412392, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1645664228174 | {"744da4af6741": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9690510810871796 | AnEqxVfTeARWAs87kMAc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9690510810871796 | will-my-upcoming-post-microaddictio | 4119.004171619576 | {"NO": 155.3761949720058, "YES": 2373.619633408418} | Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes? | 1646529450564 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 151.5, "YES": 2387.5} | 0 | 4.6346944680981785 | True | play | YES | public | 1645144536975 | Scott Alexander | Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post talking about ways that short-term activities display some of the same features as long-term addictions . The post is about 500 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 444.9088311153665, "YES": 2489.5543958615963} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646529450564 | 100 | ScottAlexander | 1645144536975 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 0 | 45 | 1715657717417 | 0 | 1646521698996 | 0.9690510810871796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9052896626407606 | 8TWiN3nw3BqxPLuuv2jT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9052896626407606 | will-i-attend-poker-night-on-march | 143.61735107787337 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 103.38264892212662} | Will I attend poker night on March 3rd? | 1646354747820 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 106} | 0 | 4.94294605429165 | True | play | YES | public | 1645146289195 | CompmanJX3 | This market resolves to YES if I attend my normal monthly poker night on March 3rd. I love poker night. Reasons I might not attend include but are not limited to: too much COVID, childcare concerns, I get sick, I want to mess with investors 😉 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 39.5101252870704, "YES": 122.15281949410691} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646354747820 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1645146289195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 6 | 1715657644799 | 0 | 0.9052896626407606 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0164234894810538 | cULt9yLJmv8kSFjiMVyx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0164234894810538 | will-the-total-volume-of-scott-alex | 1436.652229875272 | {"NO": 1046.9834720911676, "YES": 64.36429803356052} | Will the total volume of Scott Alexander's markets be greater than M$ 50,000 by the end of the month? | 1646114340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1049, "YES": 65} | 0 | 4.659108832118545 | True | play | NO | public | 1645147273556 | SG | Resolves YES if the sum of the pool value of all current and resolved markets that @ScottAlexander creates is greater than or equal to M$ 50,000 at any time before March 1, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1102.184876159304, "YES": 142.4239713792797} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646149180435 | 100 | SG | 1645147273556 | 0 | 23 | 1715658431779 | 0 | 1 | 1646059643040 | 0.0164234894810538 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wycdvdndSk0Z0XRf6c6S | who-will-be-the-next-supreme-court | 181.6258748103595 | Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.859191817851878 | True | play | d1dac2506d1a | public | 1645148539537 | David Glidden | Resolves to Yes for the next individual nominated by the President to the position of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. Senate confirmation not required.
Feb 17, 9:45pm: In the event of duplicate answers being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest instance created. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645878049555 | 340 | dglid | 1645148539537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bffc24b70357", "prob": 0.0030736295610449137, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.02389317039615864, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.7497080140080845, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wycdvdndSk0Z0XRf6c6S", "createdTime": 1645148539690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.124", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645878049000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4303081385462879, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d1dac2506d1a", "prob": 0.9471335715500275, "text": "Ketanji Brown Jackson", "index": 1, "poolNo": 58.17936126704339, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.247414231823361, "textFts": "'brown':2 'jackson':3 'ketanji':1", "contractId": "wycdvdndSk0Z0XRf6c6S", "createdTime": 1645148629893, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.857", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645878049000, "totalLiquidity": 13.745271396992841, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d4b19f752e9d", "prob": 0.015368147805224571, "text": "J. Michelle Childs", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.2687963631833476, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.22168893081983, "textFts": "'child':3 'j':1 'michell':2", "contractId": "wycdvdndSk0Z0XRf6c6S", "createdTime": 1645148700507, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.852", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645878049000, "totalLiquidity": 2.15154069273144, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d9d46d1ec32", "prob": 0.03442465108370304, "text": "Leondra Kruger", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.9099955560585135, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.524420695419895, "textFts": "'kruger':2 'leondra':1", "contractId": "wycdvdndSk0Z0XRf6c6S", "createdTime": 1645152694641, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.854", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645878049000, "totalLiquidity": 4.819451151718425, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330762}] | ["scotus"] | 1645807681018 | {"d1dac2506d1a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN | who-will-be-elected-speaker-of-the | 24143.12017833287 | Who will be elected Speaker of the House of the 118th US Congress in January 2023? | 1673763857978 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.663750266385385 | True | play | 8dd7354e977f | public | 1645149961798 | Sam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 118th US Congress, which will come into session on January 3, 2023 after the November 2022 elections, will elect a Speaker of the House. This question will resolve accordingly... ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-20 8:59 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673763857978 | 939.9999999999998 | sam | 1673760573831 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a421c384e89f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1645149961953, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.403", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8ebd5c66617", "prob": 0.003986008952647205, "text": "Nancy Pelosi", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.031379801961550345, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.841106771534542, "textFts": "'nanci':1 'pelosi':2", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1645150006901, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.363", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4960366696627633, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8dd7354e977f", "prob": 0.8052789136245415, "text": "Kevin McCarthy", "index": 2, "poolNo": 271.02950953257766, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.5364987746313, "textFts": "'kevin':1 'mccarthi':2", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1645150041053, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, 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"contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1672636364385, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.364", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4958785339612721, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cde40623bdc9", "prob": 0.0017558722400536205, "text": "Andy Biggs", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.006218592088180272, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5353785391418064, "textFts": "'andi':1 'bigg':2", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1672722851069, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.364", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 0.14827365582675017, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ede5a9846c25", "prob": 0.0008779361200268103, "text": "Hakeem Jeffries", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.004279611114876038, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.8703473887918465, "textFts": "'hakeem':1 'jeffri':2", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1672722857109, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.364", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 0.14437171751551992, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f8689bb0d248", "prob": 0.034926631478991936, "text": "Fred Upton", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.5610815266155611, "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.50349449621237, "textFts": "'fred':1 'upton':2", "contractId": "C0MpvUKZyYwzzOPZEwAN", "createdTime": 1672935574429, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.362", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673763857000, "totalLiquidity": 2.949359991559319, "probChangeMonth": 0}, 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lr9jp7owKyDLyRxayowa | which-team-will-win-the-2022-mens-n | 14400.214262703757 | Which team will win the 2022 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament? | 1649130617134 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619911381671588 | True | play | 787538309773 | public | 1645150304579 | Sam | 68 teams will compete in the "March Madness" 2022 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament. Whichever team wins the championship game on April 4th will also be crowned the Manifold Markets champion.
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0.5772539558368134 | AOEtPSf5StcLYbiVdKYu | {"NO": 1302.843097346256, "YES": 27.27537566587273} | 1 | will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a | 13220.129746529843 | {"NO": 173.0622866026105, "YES": 226.5979204639616} | Will Austin Chen get a girlfriend at any point in 2022? | 1665281737552 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 173, "YES": 241} | 0 | 3.3522417735201606 | True | play | YES | public | 1645150393784 | Sinclair Chen | This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point before the end of the year, my brother @Austin and a woman both consider themselves to be dating each other. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 224.18970089637617, "YES": 330.8595751159437} | {"creatorFee": 37.00160658230752, "platformFee": 2.6644791301812245, "liquidityFee": 15.98687478108734} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1665281737552 | 135.98687478108732 | Sinclair | 1665318900940 | 0 | 77 | 1650313832826 | 0 | 68 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664408431406}] | ["dating"] | 1665234754560 | 1665318895971 | 0.984899779148315 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu | who-will-be-the-top-creator-on-mani | 482.53068785607854 | Who will be the Top Creator on Manifold Markets on March 15th? | 1647061140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.814537026630999 | True | play | ddb8caa3aa8b | public | 1645150740590 | Sam | "In a time of destruction, create something." But who will create the most something? This question will resolve at 12pm EST on March 15th. Winner is the creator with the highest market volume.
https://manifold.markets/leaderboards | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647347926459 | 479.99999999999994 | sam | 1645150740590 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "69c6018ccb93", "prob": 0.0019567955400294117, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.008416942813201303, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.292974102402893, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645150740742, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.27", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.19008870960285712, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5abc8a16e7b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Sam", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'sam':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645150750178, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.274", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ddb8caa3aa8b", "prob": 0.9975432044599707, "text": "Duncan", "index": 2, "poolNo": 11.71634346327144, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.028855552558848505, "textFts": "'duncan':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645150757197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.273", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5814478176087259, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0b6df066fddc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Predictor", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'predictor':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645150773069, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.274", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4f0a6f33be7d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Pepe", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00017715171495005536, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7713399977856035, "textFts": "'pepe':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645186765046, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.27", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017714285714285714, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c422fd008a80", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Robert McIntyre", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'mcintyr':2 'robert':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645266995460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.274", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2f5d5348eb09", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "John Beshir", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'beshir':2 'john':1", "contractId": "JcrS5vmDuYb5ANQXJAyu", "createdTime": 1645587271201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.273", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647347926000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646702074101 | {"ddb8caa3aa8b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rBd5qjADeMNPa7FBpPGZ | who-will-be-the-2024-republican-pre | 132814.68302333792 | Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee? | 1725163140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1645150985925 | David Glidden | Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.132285192126766, "platformFee": 1.1592427423996905, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 8340.00000000001 | dglid | 1720174011154 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 213 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e58daf636b8c", "prob": 7.527126837225047e-08, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.652109046152873e-05, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 352.34012975699875, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rBd5qjADeMNPa7FBpPGZ", "createdTime": 1645150986104, "probChanges": {"day": 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3TK838NsHEsbUWMOP69O | where-will-the-epicenter-of-next-bi | 200 | Where will the epicenter of next big earthquake be located (countries only)? | 1992920340000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645151718553 | Sam | Where will the epicenter of the next big earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or higher) be located? This question will resolve if/when this occurs. Earthquakes that originate on unclaimed land/ocean do not count towards the resolution of this question.
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0.9260383995914006 | xJCmsg3b67Ag9p3oODSC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9260383995914006 | will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit | 24431.32634095871 | {"NO": 900.7916143591524, "YES": 9041.88204468214} | Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed? | 1647202173338 | r1GBMgrZifPSeju86daHiST0d9m2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 914, "YES": 9272} | 0 | 4.620136490832838 | True | play | YES | public | 1645152008833 | Kevin Zielnicki | I believe that the dynamic parimutuel betting system as formulated by Manifold (described in the site's technical guide) significantly disincentivizes accurate price setting and should be changed. I have written a blog post arguing this point, which I intend to publish shortly. This market will resolve to Yes if Manifold's developers publicly state an intent to change their pricing implementation, and this market contributed in some way to their decision to do so. This market will resolve to No if this does not happen within a month (either because I become convinced that my argument is wrong, or if I still believe in it but the developers do not agree with me that it is an issue).
Fine print: This does not require a specific change to actually be implemented within the next month, as long as the developers publicly state an intention to implement a change. If a change is made to pricing that is unrelated to this market that does not count. In the unlikely event that a change is made but it is unclear whether it is or is not related to this market I will resolve to N/A. I have no inside information about Manifold nor any pre-existing relationship with its developers or with any other prediction markets.
Feb 17, 6:50pm: Here's the argument https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/
Feb 19, 9:40pm: Here's a TLDR summary of the issue, which I still believe is significant enough to justify a change to Manifold's betting system: If market odds change substantially over time due to arrival of new information, earlier traders will not get the payouts they were expecting from the odds at the time of their bet. This is a common occurrence in interesting prediction markets, many of one can even expect will go to nearly 1 or 0 by the time they close (which is the worst case for this issue). This significantly distorts incentives for accurate pricing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1615.074959545971, "YES": 9810.622419122525} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647202173338 | 100 | kjz | 1645152008833 | 0 | 51 | 1715658909890 | 0 | 1647202150913 | 0.9260383995914006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
x8Qw9rGwwyPS6xvtoPs8 | who-will-be-the-most-searched-perso | 254 | Who will be the most searched person on Google in 2022? | 1672549140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.798447604137232 | True | play | 7a87ca785944 | public | 1645152643412 | Sam | Google Trends tracks the top searched everything each year. FYI that this doesn't always seem to be about staying power over an entire year. The top searched person in 2021 was Alec Baldwin - search interest was chiefly fueled by whatever happened on a movie set in October. Joe Biden was top searched in 2020.
https://trends.google.com/trends/yis/2021/GLOBAL/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672560238883 | 500 | sam | 1672545560750 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fbb7df031a2f", "prob": 0.0016259105098855356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0059052843740426885, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.626080817037173, "textFts": "", "contractId": "x8Qw9rGwwyPS6xvtoPs8", "createdTime": 1645152643547, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.994", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672560238000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1463319458896982, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4e73bee86c9f", "prob": 0.004877731529656608, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.030734852032443506, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.270319612645573, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": 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8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m | which-film-will-win-best-picture-at | 422 | Which film will win Best Picture at the 2022 Oscars? | 1648435800000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7974085882882855 | True | play | dd853dc28626 | public | 1645153846191 | David Glidden |
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:45 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.382009490902259, "platformFee": 1.5955023727255648, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648465338702 | 600 | dglid | 1645153846191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ac049f4bad22", "prob": 0.0016057725358650965, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005795855074401497, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.603591492728897, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153846344, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.966", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 0.14451952822785868, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e8ff1a65225", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Licorice Pizza", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'licoric':1 'pizza':2", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153915379, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.969", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a9ea0902bbe", "prob": 0.043537898551224585, "text": "West Side Story", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.2075654080875853, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.52839448595329, "textFts": "'side':2 'stori':3 'west':1", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153930227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.968", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 5.659926811659196, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "27d4b3878b21", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "King Richard", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'king':1 'richard':2", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153948568, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.967", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1d7ec2a069ee", "prob": 0.0379380312318015, "text": "Belfast", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.5820855206439606, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.11974953182391, "textFts": "'belfast':1", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153967680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.968", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 7.966986558678315, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4770cefbb545", "prob": 0.27919508920538616, "text": "The Power of the Dog", "index": 5, "poolNo": 50.390746511852, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 130.09504446415875, "textFts": "'dog':5 'power':2", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1645153984353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.969", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 80.96657586956199, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7bb6fe4371be", "prob": 0.012075409469705527, "text": "Drive My Car", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.1201526658775095, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.830041253338676, "textFts": "'car':3 'drive':1", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1647705909868, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.967", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0867868522734974, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dd853dc28626", "prob": 0.6254477990060172, "text": "CODA", "index": 7, "poolNo": 101.58721238080075, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.835954736017925, "textFts": "'coda':1", "contractId": "8IQtnIanA1yfYBds9a2m", "createdTime": 1647989484446, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.041", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648465338000, "totalLiquidity": 78.6139622087364, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"dd853dc28626": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB | which-if-any-cryptocurrency-thats-n | 157 | Which (if any) cryptocurrency that's not BTC/ETH/stable-coin will reach a market cap of $100+ billion in 2022? | 1672549140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.890826398246325 | True | play | 192a4ab8e46d | public | 1645154131327 | Sam | This market will resolve if/when a cryptocurrency that's not BTC, ETH or a stable-coin hits a market cap of $100+ billion in 2022.
Resolution criteria: https://coinmarketcap.com | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672560441773 | 320 | sam | 1669345613370 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "88d6d41d1d2b", "prob": 0.0040569597143900364, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04488134684041284, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.017921835852949, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB", "createdTime": 1645154131501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.32", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672560441000, "totalLiquidity": 0.703206350494273, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "192a4ab8e46d", "prob": 0.9472595237129295, "text": "Other", "index": 1, "poolNo": 56.6237791583997, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.15263663993831, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB", "createdTime": 1645154138216, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.321", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672560441000, "totalLiquidity": 13.360920659391184, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2c1ceb7bc07a", "prob": 0.04868351657268044, "text": "Solana", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.349465759979103, "userId": "SijmoanrPBMwlDTEqfbDyTMPPly2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.91051883812498, "textFts": "'solana':1", "contractId": "HcqEPIgy2OJgk0Vc57CB", "createdTime": 1646397903677, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.316", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672560441000, "totalLiquidity": 10.385816868838495, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 5 | 1669345613199 | {"192a4ab8e46d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GDL9uiD4pMJT7jnadCCd | who-will-be-named-the-next-007-in-t | 3960.4165585047135 | Who will be named the next 007 in the James Bond franchise? | 1735786500000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645154657218 | Sam | Daniel Craig has retired as James Bond. This question is looking for the next lead performer in the franchise. Technically they don't have to be 007 or named James Bond as they could deviate from this exact formula. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5298291137872408, "platformFee": 0.006080320804722518, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1440.000000000001 | sam | 1717037210981 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a93c17b499de", "prob": 0.00153043203743257, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00417607540129139, "userId": "fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.7245144506393895, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GDL9uiD4pMJT7jnadCCd", "createdTime": 1645154657418, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0011758029336058616, "month": -0.00046956796256743}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T03:00:44.424", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0011758029336058616, "totalLiquidity": 0.10666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": -0.00046956796256743}, {"id": "988d3706b275", "prob": 0.003173973239232512, "text": "Tom Hardy", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.033174656184414175, 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["new-years-resolutions-2025"] | 1717037206142 | 1717033877920 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | True | prob-desc | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mEWWVE0HThXYZa2xtgB2 | what-should-we-name-the-manifold-ma | 2372.596597405217 | What should we name the Manifold Markets mascot? | 1672560577591 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.656662352410222 | True | play | ae8f42f05211 | public | 1645155158442 | Sam | What should we name that origami mascot thing? BTW I do not work for Manifold Markets. 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Obligatory porn:
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mJOalkuUrK0BxnumGRYC | what-should-we-call-traders-on-mani | 1609.5969483582794 | What should we call traders on Manifold Markets? | 1646110740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.661384407263079 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645185455599 | David Glidden | Feb 18, 8:16pm: This will be resolved to the highest % answer at time of close.
Feb 19, 9:11am: Correction: this will resolve based on my judgment of what I believe is the community consensus. 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zZuBzWaBrq9PrBexKj0n | who-will-win-the-kentucky-derby-in | 49 | Who will win the Kentucky Derby in 2022? | 1651964100000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.313305491431162 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645186042154 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Derby
Close date updated to 2022-05-07 6:55 pm
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tero3ysAaNEMXhNU2JvA | who-will-win-the-nhl-stanley-cup | 10 | Who will win the NHL Stanley Cup? | 1656647940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.36638862471458 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645186190329 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cup | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645186266902 | 220 | dglid | 1645186190329 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "15431406acd1", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tero3ysAaNEMXhNU2JvA", "createdTime": 1645186190506, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.618", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645186266000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409239}] | ["sports-default"] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD | who-will-win-the-nhl-stanley-cup-in | 787.6691787679421 | Who will win the NHL Stanley Cup in 2022? | 1656647940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.695313400611454 | True | play | eb3fff6ed34c | public | 1645186338536 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cup | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6925485402043254, "platformFee": 0.42313713505108136, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656675478494 | 479.99999999999994 | dglid | 1678647634369 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e4899967a5c2", "prob": 0.00027932978711956303, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0004980411913872281, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.7824882866292433, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1645186338745, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.64", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02979517729275339, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "eb3fff6ed34c", "prob": 0.9988310254683667, "text": "Colorado Avalanche", "index": 1, "poolNo": 8.849080106778981, "userId": "JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.010356455706166341, "textFts": "'avalanch':2 'colorado':1", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1653405919785, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.643", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.30272942732112157, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a6fba3529b85", "prob": 0.00011143208517635544, "text": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00021958686419282545, "userId": "JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.970369618617346, "textFts": "'bay':2 'lightn':3 'tampa':1", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1653405940790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.642", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02080065589958635, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9ca617a2c4da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Carolina Hurricanes", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'carolina':1 'hurrican':2", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1653405976095, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.642", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7f6afa8a6ea6", "prob": 0.0005782126593374954, "text": "New York Rangers", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0020398038592888733, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.525734668643682, "textFts": "'new':1 'ranger':3 'york':2", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1654465200680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.643", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08480452336949934, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1741c9e91aaa", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Edmonton Oilers", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'edmonton':1 'oiler':2", "contractId": "TsHsJLCCRfs12nPyx4eD", "createdTime": 1654567412982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.643", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656675478000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402960}] | ["sports-default"] | 1656639154151 | 1678647631058 | {"eb3fff6ed34c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fl1yX504c6aDjrw6MiUj | who-will-win-the-nba-finals-champio | 325420.68166390824 | Who will win the NBA Finals championship in 2022? | 1655438340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615405617223263 | True | basic | 11a762c8cca9 | public | 1645186514220 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Finals
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0.03033015598344179 | COTcSJQbT4Lp2CPJKK9r | {"NO": 96.6959530845482, "YES": 300.68583495233014} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-in-a-p | 6383.859592868687 | {"NO": 1818.9601353795263, "YES": 69.99999999999989} | Will a nuclear bomb detonate in a populated area during 2022? | 1672783140000 | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1820, "YES": 70} | 0 | 10.18870464444413 | True | play | NO | public | 1645191300855 | colorednoise | Resolves as yes if a nuclear weapon detonates and kills upwards of 200 individuals during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1860.0957175355047, "YES": 328.96518445024617} | {"creatorFee": 0.2351418229480308, "platformFee": 0.01172452796673619, "liquidityFee": 0.04055461666633442} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1672786089933 | 100.04055461666633 | colorednoise | 1671691639075 | 0 | 67 | 1650313846926 | 0 | 1 | 62 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477348}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125148}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}] | ["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "global-macro"] | 1671691638874 | 1646024332401 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.85 | rzybmTWOuWruiXYUnfzc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.85 | what-grade-will-i-get-for-the-final | 128.01153780500894 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 92.98846219499106} | What grade will I get for the final essay in the International Relations class? | 1646408960598 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 93} | 0 | 4.948222685263261 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645192243753 | Alex | IMPORTANT: Dutch grading system (8.0 corresponds to A)
Will be solved to PROB. Final % corresponds to grade
Grades I got so far:
- Exam 1: 6.8
- Exam 2: 7.1
- Assignment 1: 7.3
- Assignment 2: 7.0
- Assignment 3: 8.2
to clarify: the final outcome will be the final grade. for instance, 8.5 = 85% | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 60.868684670115435, "YES": 110.31023438789866} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646408960598 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1645192243753 | 0 | 5 | 1715658776611 | 0 | 1645204794392 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9242348314288562 | cwMNw0QUCKsXyTxebUjs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9242348314288562 | will-russia-invades-ukraine-stay-ab | 12982.058706841737 | {"NO": 514.6198357282789, "YES": 6067.3214574299855} | Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' stay above 75% for at least an hour? | 1645999140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 6351} | 0 | 4.622687777572269 | True | play | YES | public | 1645198252698 | Jenny | Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes.
The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change).
This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily.
Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 268.6353302443147, "YES": 6576.457968375529} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1645580406094 | 100 | Jenny | 1645198252698 | 0 | 23 | 1715658453953 | 0 | 1645579909588 | 0.9242348314288562 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7813439519623158 | axvtz5awPemjEP1Oz1pZ | {"NO": 75.43540734965748, "YES": 109.78492563174954} | 1 | will-just-paying-people-to-lose-wei | 352.1083450738919 | {"NO": 46.85473934102285, "YES": 116.68154243612236} | Will just paying people to lose weight be more effective than paying people to exercise and join, e.g., weightwatchers? | 1659222000000 | 4OrOE700Upe1pqoXXGfXvVVifVX2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47, "YES": 119} | 0 | 4.041727112612056 | True | play | YES | public | 1645199423204 | micheal | The question resolves to yes if the 'outcome based' group has a greater weight proportion with >5% loss at six months than the 'goal-directed group' and no if the 'goal-directed group' had a greater loss.
Outcome-based group: can earn up to $750 by losing weight over 6 months.
Goal-directed group: can earn up to $750 by wearing a Fitbit and doing exercise, joining and participating in weight watchers etc over 6 months.
If the difference is not statistically significant, resolves to NA.
Sample: 668 obese adults, randomised to 3 groups (control group excluded from this question).
Trial details: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03157713 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 76.40754206836415, "YES": 144.59021421288705} | {"creatorFee": 5.248017763734305, "platformFee": 0.09476471511016185, "liquidityFee": 0.568588290660971} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1679420668422 | 100.56858829066098 | micheal | 1679420666918 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_LXQhTNp6qG9hkUYlLkT5TGKVh70HHVQRand-JA=s96-c | 22 | 1650314661742 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530418}] | ["science-default"] | 1659218980619 | 1679420664342 | 0.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44301358972900057 | 1dUSMqPvl9QaA8lLj8bM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44301358972900057 | will-my-grandmothers-salvadoran-que | 77.63349631630734 | {"NO": 25.36650368369265, "YES": 49} | Will my grandmother's salvadoran quesadillas turn out well? | 1645253940000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26, "YES": 49} | 0 | 5.126653787770564 | True | play | NO | public | 1645201906367 | Em ✨ | She's baking a test batch before she tries for a whole baggage-full for me to take home. Last time they came out too sugary for her taste but she was overruled by me and bisabuela's opinion that they were fantastic. Her baked goods do not come out very consistently. I think she tried to measure her ingredients exactly once, when I asked her for a written recipe >.<
Feb 18, 10:59am: Dear Lord, she brought out a never-used-before mini-oven to cook it in. I had to show her how to set it up.
98% ante is looking a little overconfident suddenly.
Feb 18, 12:30pm: is that... Sesame on top? Grandma please, stop being creative today.
Feb 18, 1:17pm: https://photos.app.goo.gl/a6U3iUW2HrmrJFkc7
Feb 18, 1:17pm: burnt on the outside, raw on the inside. I would eat it but not give it to anyone with standards. Alas. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.50160000544164, "YES": 49.498464632551986} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00014142135623730956, "YES": 0.0009899494936611666} | 0 | 1645215897250 | 100 | hamnox | 1645201906367 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 1715656896704 | 0 | 0.44301358972900057 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1298071375842767 | 8OOXZ1HcPCGzAjSpka4s | {"NO": 100.14915272890815, "YES": 99.00583910093067} | 0.13110960881439435 | will-the-biden-administration-end-s | 64.99416089906933 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 6} | Will the Biden administration end sanctions on Afghanistan? | 1737392400000 | DzO5shYhVmSfVw5zID4IC85Rxzk1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 6} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645204930283 | Vinay Kumar | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 48.50867964498724, "YES": 18.735314251434374} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 100 | VinayKumar | 1702293342355 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjk0ZMQoNpHDZVpUTtej3B-MapHrmjCU1kY5aS7HQ=s96-c | 4 | 1650313818134 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856969}] | ["the-life-of-biden"] | 1702293342234 | 1697240571939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y | if-russia-invades-ukraine-what-will | 363.3466038570841 | If Russia invades Ukraine, what will that look like over the first month? | 1647493140000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.764137279219686 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645207618813 | James | This resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine before May 1st.
If they do invade, I will wait a month after their invasion, and pick the answer that best captures the most important details of their invasion. For example, how much territory will they occupy? How many deaths will there be, roughly? And so on.
Close date updated to 2022-03-16 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 5:28pm: For the purposes of this question, Russia invaded on Feb 23, so I will resolve the question on March 24th. I've also updated the close date to one week before (March 16th, end of day). | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.066135845716635, "platformFee": 1.2665339614291586, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648933066571 | 580 | JamesGrugett | 1645207618813 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "508909a931f", "prob": 0.10362100220896724, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.422446903184238, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.606059193315026, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645207618979, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.058", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 10.066040214585389, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cdca6760d124", "prob": 0.021760410463883117, "text": "There will be little resistance from Ukrainians, between 10-100 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.4450934470146746, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.0091828063409, "textFts": "'-100':10 '-50':14 '10':9,13 'death':11 'littl':4 'occupi':20 'resist':5 'territori':17 'ukrainian':7,16", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645210674089, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.064", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 2.9842848636182557, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8041103a0460", "prob": 0.07632793405059045, "text": "Luhansk & Donetsk oblast (besides LNR/DNR) fully or partially occupied, >500 deaths, army of Ukraine still resists, no major cities are occupied outside of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast", "index": 2, "poolNo": 3.8867803790148616, "userId": "QBC3BgkUkIMhyb8onL5RDDDCzvA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.03534174260169, "textFts": "'500':10 'armi':12 'besid':4 'citi':19 'death':11 'donetsk':2 'donetsk/luhansk':24 'fulli':6 'lnr/dnr':5 'luhansk':1 'major':18 'oblast':3,25 'occupi':9,21 'outsid':22 'partial':8 'resist':16 'still':15 'ukrain':14", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645600051916, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 13.520948317533165, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "69303e4976df", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "There will be little resistance from Ukrainians, over 500 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'-50':13 '10':12 '500':9 'death':10 'littl':4 'occupi':19 'resist':5 'territori':16 'ukrainian':7,15", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645828502141, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9cda76eb5658", "prob": 0.6275368223130073, "text": "There will be some resistance from Ukrainians, over 500 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 162.9515987768727, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.71698636886799, "textFts": "'-50':13 '10':12 '500':9 'death':10 'occupi':19 'resist':5 'territori':16 'ukrainian':7,15", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645828588289, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 125.53958562018612, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "44d3e36273a2", "prob": 0.16616719986283032, "text": "Most major cities of Ukraine are occupied by Russia, and between 3,000 and 30,000 Ukrainians died.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 10.173061216280363, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.04877573275737, "textFts": "'000':13,16 '3':12 '30':15 'citi':3 'die':18 'major':2 'occupi':7 'russia':9 'ukrain':5 'ukrainian':17", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1645829209483, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 22.78864455261673, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "29bd1fe369cc", "prob": 0.004486631100721474, "text": "Strong resistance from Ukrainians. Territory occupied by Russia shifts rapidly, but it never goes above ~30% of Ukraine (# whalebait?). By around March 5, Russian(+Belorussian?) forces suffer so many loses that they have to withdraw (probably to 2020 border). By this point there are 500-1500 Ukrainian civilians dead according to Ukraine, 0 according to Russia (or if there are any, they're all from friendly fire); 7000-15000 Russian military dead according to Ukraine, Russia doesn't disclose or says some obviously false number like 13. Neither side discloses Ukrainian military deaths (at least not immediately). I have no idea what happens after Russian troops withdraw.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.05335567771054159, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.838791573255046, "textFts": "'-1500':46 '-15000':69 '0':53 '13':87 '2020':38 '30':16 '5':23 '500':45 '7000':68 'accord':50,54,73 'around':21 'belorussian':25 'border':39 'civilian':48 'dead':49,72 'death':93 'disclos':79,90 'doesn':77 'fals':84 'fire':67 'forc':26 'friend':66 'goe':14 'happen':103 'idea':101 'immedi':97 'least':95 'like':86 'lose':30 'mani':29 'march':22 'militari':71,92 'neither':88 'never':13 'number':85 'obvious':83 'occupi':6 'point':42 'probabl':36 'rapid':10 're':63 'resist':2 'russia':8,56,76 'russian':24,70,105 'say':81 'shift':9 'side':89 'strong':1 'suffer':27 'territori':5 'troop':106 'ukrain':18,52,75 'ukrainian':4,47,91 'whalebait':19 'withdraw':35,107", "contractId": "PVlkJlhD56v2kNJcc04Y", "createdTime": 1646043500318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933066000, "totalLiquidity": 0.794774652127804, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646895138432 | {"29bd1fe369cc": 0.6128243918155212, "44d3e36273a2": 13.65889858243473, "9cda76eb5658": 85.72827702574975} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31082159446208046 | EU9VzPhU6tJ5ey1jrumc | {"NO": 63.91703664752691, "YES": 691.8427536708107} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-announced-before-octob-627f9562190a | 1243.0217861975013 | {"NO": 154, "YES": 129} | Will GPT-4 be announced before October 1st 2022? | 1664596800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 154, "YES": 129} | 0 | 3.1732745506006403 | True | play | NO | public | 1645209975923 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before October 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 215.59987940761934, "YES": 183.3200970990906} | {"creatorFee": 3.056893019375515, "platformFee": 0.3009154572408663, "liquidityFee": 1.8054927434451975} | {"NO": 0.0007615773105863909, "YES": 0.0006480740698407859} | 0 | 1664937137303 | 141.8054927434452 | MatthewBarnett | 1664897421083 | 0 | 33 | 1650313861396 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1664590966174 | 1664897418970 | 0.040000000000000015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | BoV4z3rgwZU5AWvZyREf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | markdown-test | 10 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Markdown Test. | 1645210140000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645210102867 | Luna Nova | [Test](https://www.google.com) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645210118279 | 100 | LunaNova | 1645210102867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 1 | 1715657736313 | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5293196120211441 | JFKyJZH1YXaENnYZU30G | {"NO": 974.9113250529256, "YES": 958.4653968520843} | 0.5335560359710966 | will-ray-kurzweil-win-his-2029-turi | 8061.197822020943 | {"NO": 560.4937510399703, "YES": 252.14826879121597} | Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor? | 1861938000000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 581.75, "YES": 262.25} | 0 | 6.75141701514965 | False | basic | public | 1645215287953 | Matthew Barnett | This question is a duplicate of another question (https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202) scheduled to close later. It is based on a bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor, found here: https://longbets.org/1/
This question will only resolve YES if the Long Now Foundation announces that Ray Kurzweil won the bet. It will resolve to NO if Mitchell Kapor is announced the winner instead.
Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.
> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.
> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.
> During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).
> The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online "instant messaging" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.
Feb 18, 3:20pm: To clarify, Ray Kurzweil's position is that the Turing Test will be passed by a computer by 2029. In particular, the Long Now Foundation will arrange a Turing Test, and will decide the winner of the bet based on the results of that Turing Test. No other Turing Test will play a role in deciding who wins this bet.
Feb 18, 3:22pm: Here's the Metaculus community discussion on the same question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.016443964028903357, "month": -0.05579984557438589} | 0 | {"NO": 740.3141312059963, "YES": 335.1472285683722} | {"creatorFee": 20.764926122629983, "platformFee": 3.2182532803948054, "liquidityFee": 3.147941610921278} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1000 | MatthewBarnett | 1719951086870 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 1650313893249 | 1 | 30 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446575}, {"name": "Gerontocracy", "slug": "gerontocracy", "groupId": "347c27dc-85ba-4c23-b745-f06653bf2de0", "createdTime": 1696127726699}] | ["technology-default", "gerontocracy"] | 1719951083752 | 1694134003590 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22838499162689294 | w8rmu2mINz597YcI1rjU | {"NO": 1368.849493989955, "YES": 2394.172149498844} | 0.14473339071956046 | will-china-surpass-the-united-state | 5296.5220991034375 | {"NO": 128.3033086429658, "YES": 110.12374512634366} | Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? | 2209006800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 131.5, "YES": 115.5} | 0 | 9.178498085677514 | False | basic | public | 1645216841798 | Matthew Barnett | This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
1. Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund. If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
2. Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
3. The Nature Index. If this index is discontinued, then International Science Ranking takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves to N/A.
Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 168.16543937713777, "YES": 169.02166081101834} | {"creatorFee": 5.041165535636785, "platformFee": 0.5177019303574113, "liquidityFee": 2.9558216539006836} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1602.9558216539008 | MatthewBarnett | 1709912241863 | 0 | 2 | 118 | 1650314806513 | 0 | 90 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561736}] | ["china"] | 1709912241862 | 1676279609594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018574772469315697 | y9Qsrvxvqf15aFCYlKak | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.018574772469315697 | will-manifold-delete-the-luna-nova | 668.2117252782948 | {"NO": 496.7302054976284, "YES": 51.0580692240768} | Will Manifold delete the Luna Nova question containing porn in the description? | 1645862340000 | dT5MmfSYfBgV8lmMDbaX75WQs212 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 505, "YES": 51} | 0 | 4.702391869570166 | True | play | NO | public | 1645216901419 | Ellie High | This market resolves to YES if Manifold deletes the Luna Nova post in question before it resolves on Feb. 24. I have not linked the question here to reduce the likelihood of this question being deleted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 542.6778972268007, "YES": 74.65781514101221} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645943335746 | 100 | EllieHigh | 1645216901419 | 0 | 12 | 1715658938060 | 0 | 1 | 1645301904546 | 0.018574772469315697 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05782518055034213 | dbPrEDKYOMrhNOSsyL6z | {"NO": 97.13734040950087, "YES": 169.97238505392082} | 0 | will-the-7day-rolling-average-repor | 125 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 10} | Will the 7-day rolling average reported Covid-19 deaths in the United States fall below 150 before June 1st 2022? | 1654146000000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 10} | 0 | 9.134661972781068 | True | play | NO | public | 1645217309700 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if the 7-day rolling average reported Covid-19 deaths falls below 150 according to Our World In Data before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. A graph of current deaths can be found here: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
The last time this number was below 150 was on March 24th 2020. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 53.38623418541525, "YES": 13.229512481569378} | {"creatorFee": 0.16568967647505398, "platformFee": 0.02761494607917566, "liquidityFee": 0.16568967647505398} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1654209069977 | 100.16568967647505 | MatthewBarnett | 1654209103904 | 0 | 5 | 1650314682613 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}] | ["medicine"] | 1654126583943 | 1654209102489 | 0.033886106540966146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9409444549728346 | 4YDiQ7KBRJAJ7euUX6ub | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9409444549728346 | is-albe-from-a-dath-ilani-emt-in-qu | 25686.256034376005 | {"NO": 1784.7882995092664, "YES": 1514.9556661147335} | Is Albe from "a dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court" really Queen Abrogail in disguise? | 1645862340000 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 397, "YES": 2321} | 0 | 4.630157286347018 | True | play | YES | public | 1645217669862 | April | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 801.8824635232127, "YES": 3200.828229201762} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645862486448 | 100 | April | 1645217669862 | 0 | 38 | 1715656976534 | 0 | 1645510739560 | 0.9409444549728346 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5191548089738129 | GPJCHHEy4tF6Eo54KhRq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5191548089738129 | will-the-state-of-the-union-address | 3282.2102293335906 | {"NO": 1660.9910263921522, "YES": 1366.7987442742572} | Will the State of the Union Address on March 1, 2022 include a declaration of victory over COVID-19? | 1646283540000 | fYnDM8j5CwN2iQXzBSM2AL2Nqql2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1684, "YES": 1365} | 0 | 4.631496656933635 | True | play | NO | public | 1645218062209 | KS | This market resolves to "YES" on March 2, 11:59PM EST if President Biden makes any claim during the 2022 SOTU Address that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, using language similar to "the nation has DEFEATED COVID" or "we can now declare victory over COVID" or "the long national nightmare of COVID is finally over". High five for those predicting "YES" if you also predict the exact phrasing! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2099.561011141862, "YES": 2181.595863450803} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646302189486 | 100 | KevinSmith | 1645218062209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxwZ_jPBfsoB1FvUOseOOrlhne8YHS6LVjDiBn-=s96-c | 29 | 1715657866277 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479375}] | ["politics-default"] | 1646265210998 | 0.5191548089738129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.366533992120947 | rZSX556sOqfreUkwWTtA | {"NO": 946.3797741405987, "YES": 1081.264572121347} | 0.3361814790567793 | will-the-losing-candidate-in-the-20 | 5426.029749039986 | {"NO": 112.49562027599102, "YES": 64.41959879076815} | Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat? | 1730782800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 114.3, "YES": 66.7} | 0 | 9.640768327025604 | False | basic | public | 1645218450813 | Matthew Barnett | For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print).
This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede after at least two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election, as projected by the major media outlets. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.
Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
Fine print: For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have "projected" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of "projected" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.03929928024092372, "month": -0.049171095223438044} | 0 | {"NO": 142.25556788366686, "YES": 105.17937998948732} | {"creatorFee": 31.262911412193883, "platformFee": 10.643822499987344, "liquidityFee": 0.19231907666013465} | {"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045} | 0 | 1000 | MatthewBarnett | 1719650251447 | 0 | 1 | 63 | 1650314779941 | 2 | 35 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507561}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867530}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 1719650248335 | 1692812786004 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9114570440490232 | F2snDEZl7R0hjL2egwFY | {"NO": 1867.0697735994543, "YES": 916.3996174767713} | 0.954489328928008 | will-i-win-my-bet-with-robin-hanson | 1392.3886679328164 | {"NO": 40.5, "YES": 218.91600336963043} | Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems? | 10413810000000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40.5, "YES": 223.5} | 0 | 10.364629346571814 | False | basic | public | 1645218738258 | Matthew Barnett | On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),
> OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.
I replied,
> I agree to this bet.
This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.68392144628137, "YES": 230.67576471621757} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1000 | MatthewBarnett | 1696959343369 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 1650313866057 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587616}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}, {"name": "Robin Hanson", "slug": "robin-hanson", "groupId": "1f9c00a9-6063-4898-a247-9345af623a90", "createdTime": 1696181044541}] | ["ai", "internet", "robin-hanson"] | 1696959343085 | 1685282244720 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5049381113571925 | 1laHSePRfUWsp34SXKkL | {"NO": 969.8379090725199, "YES": 1022.7321361308656} | 0.4916630604902213 | will-alcor-go-bankrupt-before-any-o | 525.2020666666481 | {"NO": 29, "YES": 66} | Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? | 10413810000000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 29, "YES": 66} | 0 | 9.585313689957324 | False | basic | public | 1645219126722 | Matthew Barnett | Alcor, founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page: https://www.alcor.org/about/
A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. This question resolves to YES if Alcor goes bankrupt before any of their patients are revived. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on this page by Metaculite Mati Roy: https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation
LessWrong user Froolow wrote a financial analysis of Alcor: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around
See also this question for the Cryonics Insitute: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/
Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on this page: https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates
For the purpose of this question, a "patient" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.
The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.
The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.
Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.
Fine print: By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves to N/A. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. I will ultimately resolve according to my own discretion. | BINARY | {"day": 1.0547118733938987e-15, "week": 1.0547118733938987e-15, "month": 1.0547118733938987e-15} | 0 | {"NO": 60.283148561600534, "YES": 73.42432839665611} | {"creatorFee": 0.9447570055435532, "platformFee": 0.13081735908588318, "liquidityFee": 0.7849041545152988} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | MatthewBarnett | 1703830540887 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 1650313774519 | 0 | 21 | 1703830540760 | 1678087300064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw | which-betting-system-will-manifold | 14176.826579887473 | Which betting system will Manifold be using on April 1st? | 1647384420000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.621661041922677 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1645220602520 | Manifold | Help us decide whether to keep our current DPM system or switch to something different. You can influence the outcome of this market by suggesting an alternative or arguing in favor of one of these options.
Close date updated to 2022-03-15 5:50 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-15 5:47 pm
Apr 4, 9:40pm: The system in place on April 1st was CFMM for binary markets and DPM for free-response markets. (Since our CFMM is also a CPMM, this answer got some weight in the final resolution.) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.166936804501162, "platformFee": 7.291734201125291, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649126599683 | 2080 | Manifold | 1645220602520 | 0 | 39 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "252a66354ba2", "prob": 0.00017225993645113245, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00020349621809460493, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.181128752515979, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220602696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.075", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01550339428060192, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8037fb52af0e", "prob": 0.08975684642696544, "text": "DPM (dynamic parimutuel; our current system)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 22.83009330687007, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 231.5248023438674, "textFts": "'current':5 'dpm':1 'dynam':2 'parimutuel':3 'system':6", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220626932, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 72.70304560584201, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e085548b3136", "prob": 0.0002623645693350276, "text": "CLOB (central limit order book)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0010625631902496826, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.048886684693285, "textFts": "'book':5 'central':2 'clob':1 'limit':3 'order':4", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220657333, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:38.072", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 0.0655911423337569, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e88b07107331", "prob": 0.14635009810145477, "text": "CPMM (constant product market maker, a la Uniswap)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 68.47437437172516, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 399.4062438172455, "textFts": "'constant':2 'cpmm':1 'la':7 'maker':5 'market':4 'product':3 'uniswap':8", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220693810, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 165.3756108546439, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "96105d3c3c15", "prob": 0.004563383359542822, "text": "LS-LMSR (Liquidity sensitive log market scoring rule, variant of Hanson's market maker)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.2131928897548141, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.504970577487306, "textFts": "'hanson':12 'liquid':4 'lmsr':3 'log':6 'ls':2 'ls-lmsr':1 'maker':15 'market':7,14 'rule':9 'score':8 'sensit':5 'variant':10", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645220765508, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 3.148734518084547, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "992c2dcf6e91", "prob": 0.0361817337319563, "text": "Multiple options will be supported, with market creators choosing between them.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.593810282400687, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.09458092671905, "textFts": "'choos':9 'creator':8 'market':7 'multipl':1 'option':2 'support':5", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1645358123415, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 13.387241480823832, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1aaee22b252a", "prob": 0.12356431695371388, "text": "CPMM for binary markets, something else for free-response markets", "index": 6, "poolNo": 15.310646294029423, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.5976685940354, "textFts": "'binari':3 'cpmm':1 'els':6 'free':9 'free-respons':8 'market':4,11 'respons':10 'someth':5", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1647006156897, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 40.77622459472558, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "318907641712", "prob": 0.5991489969205805, "text": "CFMM (constant function) using @Pepe's k = y^(1-p) * n^p", "index": 7, "poolNo": 240.13473569218434, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 160.65828395133363, "textFts": "'1':9 'cfmm':1 'constant':2 'function':3 'k':7 'n':11 'p':10,12 'pepe':5 'use':4 'y':8", "contractId": "oDZlhva8JdAjzAwXoxsw", "createdTime": 1647041195621, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:39.837", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649126599000, "totalLiquidity": 196.41699150891554, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647105371094 | {"1aaee22b252a": 11.410964660886366, "318907641712": 69.60688443140683, "8037fb52af0e": 2.282192932177273, "e88b07107331": 16.699957975529532} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022896556417674532 | ZycHLs7OZcCqaXBR2NMo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.022896556417674532 | will-it-snow-in-amsterdam-before-sp | 152 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 4.5} | Will it snow in Amsterdam before Spring starts? | 1647730740000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 4.5} | 0 | 4.8986941882442485 | True | play | NO | public | 1645222082253 | Mr Stone | This market will resolve YES if there's reports of snow in Amsterdam before Sunday, 20 March. The market will resolve NO if there's no reports of snow, and it is Sunday, 20 March.
Trustworthy sources are:
Newsoutlets or weather sites
(so no social media) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 150.25077371165182, "YES": 23.000195652428697} | {"creatorFee": 0.18, "platformFee": 0.045, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1647756175044 | 100 | stone | 1645222082253 | 0 | 3 | 1715658351655 | 0 | 1 | 0.022896556417674532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8833217673570899 | gmxF2ir2bjvMcdseogFP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8833217673570899 | how-should-should-questions-be-reso | 233 | {"NO": 31.000000000000007, "YES": 132} | How should "should" questions be resolved? (Judgement vs. Market) | 1645833540000 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 31.000000000000007, "YES": 132} | 0 | 4.881942926813164 | True | play | YES | public | 1645222371807 | Tim P | Yes = Judgement = resolves according to the personal judgement of the asker.
No = Market = resolves according to which site has the higher market probability.
I will resolve this market according to my judgement (though I will take the market probability into account). So try to convince me. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.678200404736515, "YES": 153.19681459054559} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005567764362830023, "YES": 0.0008306623862918075} | 0 | 1645831199375 | 100 | TimP | 1645222371807 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 7 | 1715658528668 | 0 | 1645653490619 | 0.8833217673570899 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.033211847689831646 | AwIxOt4It96jkUOsvlJw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.033211847689831646 | will-this-market-have-m70000-invest | 1173.989936115552 | {"NO": 721.9095444521996, "YES": 76.10051943224846} | Will this market have $M70,000 invested in by tomorrow? | 1645311600000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 737, "YES": 74} | 0 | 4.675854817381456 | True | play | NO | public | 1645222685087 | Duncn | You heard me. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 784.6474585240072, "YES": 145.430477939822} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645320911751 | 100 | Duncn | 1645222685087 | 0 | 22 | 1715657721870 | 0 | 1 | 1645301718299 | 0.033211847689831646 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12988010514866954 | wdefaJkBvEwHIerl5j9W | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.12988010514866954 | what-will-be-two-leftmost-digits-of | 421.1073361319353 | {"NO": 116.94041585537457, "YES": 17.952248012690127} | What will be two leftmost digits of this market's pool size when it closes? | 1645505940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 104.75, "YES": 28.25} | 0 | 4.929415430193723 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645224760153 | Jenny | Resolves PROB, with the value corresponding to the two leftmost digits of the pool size. For example, if the final pool size is $420, it will resolve to 42%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 125.82910284497895, "YES": 48.614169014579886} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1645507668969 | 100 | Jenny | 1645224760153 | 0 | 13 | 1715658886085 | 0 | 1645505976300 | 0.12988010514866954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd | who-will-occupy-the-1-spot-on-the-o | 1660.2194760621733 | Who will occupy the #1 spot on the overall Top Traders leaderboard at the end of February? (Midnight UTC) | 1646092740000 | AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.666504469956749 | True | play | 36b1130ad757 | public | 1645229134039 | Angola Maldives | Resolves to whoever has the highest aggregate trading profit, shown here: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646093055181 | 580.0000000000001 | AngolaMaldives | 1645229134039 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9cacf2a266a8", "prob": 0.011132288167339162, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12599006065288093, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.191544911404446, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645229134212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:53.19", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 1.187444071182844, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5324d0a23c3a", "prob": 0.018614173364487254, "text": "Robert McIntyre", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.5810766162567439, "userId": "G0gHygtG7rZujueY0qEiTFzmGwd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.635814130304237, "textFts": "'mcintyr':2 'robert':1", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645231254734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:53.19", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 4.219212629283778, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b73522f17ace", "prob": 0.0044751798432703434, "text": "Pepe", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0440069343124266, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.789549672044537, "textFts": "'pepe':1", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645279676785, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:53.19", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6563597103463171, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "04efc3c1fc87", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kevin Zielnicki", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'kevin':1 'zielnicki':2", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645482940278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:55.563", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "36b1130ad757", "prob": 0.9655783586249033, "text": "John Beshir", "index": 4, "poolNo": 84.58348806869152, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.0152938563179834, "textFts": "'beshir':2 'john':1", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645483030356, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:55.563", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 15.970099308378487, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "faaef991e060", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Matthew Barnett", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'barnett':2 'matthew':1", "contractId": "fu8mJhbOWWLkE7MGvvWd", "createdTime": 1645634236440, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:55.562", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646093055000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1646058430728 | {"36b1130ad757": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9607494444806107 | AJsqiBQnRXn7kO698CQt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9607494444806107 | will-the-queensland-indoor-mask-man | 521.1474694793886 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 388.85253052061137} | Will the Queensland indoor mask mandate be lifted on or before March 18th? | 1646382495174 | G0gHygtG7rZujueY0qEiTFzmGwd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 400} | 0 | 4.714338640426776 | True | play | YES | public | 1645230985781 | Oevrlrod | Queensland restrictions have included mandatory face masks indoors since January 2nd:
https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/public-health-directions/mandatory-masks
The mandate will be considered lifted even if vulnerable settings still require masks; or if non-vaccinated people are still required to wear masks.
Mar 4, 6:27pm: Resolving YES as per:
https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/public-health-directions/mandatory-masks | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 469.3618259841272} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646382495174 | 100 | Oevrlrod | 1645230985781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjel1n-jCCkRpDMn2TG_Df-nKXC-RX8HUPhCFVW=s96-c | 4 | 1715657698357 | 0 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648191974}] | ["australia"] | 1645884430183 | 0.9607494444806107 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3590390968670982 | noAgHiU1Z3HDl65lfPMV | {"NO": 157.77787451508294, "YES": 167.90976040830904} | 1 | will-i-get-a-postdoc-in-mathematics | 798.0076852328814 | {"NO": 379.3042348632499, "YES": 275.00000000000006} | Will I get a postdoc in Mathematics? | 1670734740000 | HfRZfKEBC2ax3WpSCAhC2IIGzb92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 380, "YES": 275} | 0 | 2.0962309326665705 | True | play | YES | public | 1645232440519 | fierydemon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am from a Mathematics Department in the US which is ranked~50, and the grad students here don't generally get postdocs. I will have written at least 3 papers by the time I graduate, which is the norm for my field. My advisor is new but well-connected.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: I have now submitted three papers, at least partially solved a difficult question that my advisor thinks is very important, and still have a year of grad school to go.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 9, 4:17pm: ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 520.8402621013377, "YES": 396.0312635937502} | {"creatorFee": 0.9203147883912963, "platformFee": 0.1168271887929022, "liquidityFee": 0.7009631327574132} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1675451659493 | 160.7009631327574 | fierydemon | 1670721637366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwStHg3QkrircxX8QlBJACkyBCWJmhS-QbLDYdE=s96-c | 18 | 1650314755201 | 0 | 11 | 18 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533599}] | ["science-default"] | 1670721637210 | 0.34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 5IRAjudBRNMjtYki3Dbb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-manifold-markets-implement-the | 20 | {"NO": 5.000000000000002, "YES": 5} | Will Manifold Markets implement the option to have a market close at a random time? | 1653947940000 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645232713383 | Milli | This market resolves to "Yes" if Manifold Markets has the option to create a market that closes at a random time. If that is not the case by 05/30/2022 this market resolves to no.
An example would be a market that closes at a random time (uniformly distributed) on a specified day.
A use case is preventing the sniping of meta-markets.
Feb 22, 11:23am: Closed due to lack of interest and the more general market https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645525236489 | 100 | Milli | 1645232713383 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 2 | 1715656994242 | 0 | 1645253487274 | 0.5 |
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