p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.23657378416569275
m63nGTt2aEMbdnL6AV2X
{"NO": 134.341184862611, "YES": 4112.699185792705}
0
inflation-will-be-higher-than-5-unt
4735.374494827094
Inflation will be higher than 5% until summer of 2024 because of a "black swan" event.
1696517820508
8p8ip42Ib0bFD4DzIIgkMcZa8B13
cpmm-1
0
2.3833581558204955
True
play
NO
public
1667671331845
Michaelscott
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inflation = CPI", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Black swan event = oil shortage, escalation of war, additional stimulous, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1696517820508
370
Michaelscott
1696525522912
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…94b-cb527428dddd
19
0
https://firebasestorage.…33f-0db9554049f7
8
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "8p8ip42Ib0bFD4DzIIgkMcZa8B13", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667671332141}]
["economics-default"]
0.09909146823385549
0.5
1696517790660
1696525522383
0.01
0.3254677987573908
H7b8GWUxR7O2ZoPYt4Zg
{"NO": 468.5456770493445, "YES": 343.0690570911455}
1
will-twitter-bring-back-vine
496.5934681458608
Will Twitter bring back Vine?
1672531140000
HyH0vsJ7LncFGl8yprmUVTfNdxL2
cpmm-1
0
0.9735859982921564
True
play
YES
public
1667673279696
Benthamite
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question results positively if Twitter introduces a short form video platform before the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672544461693
430
Benthamite
1672544460736
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpjghXLjRJiALhE-4NjihKqx2Bqqzq9-9HyIepghg=s96-c
23
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…de7-e356a100cd33
22
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "HyH0vsJ7LncFGl8yprmUVTfNdxL2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667673279953}]
["entertainment"]
0.5
1672529411799
1672544458478
0.4
0.406152076595005
RYcZpYxqwGEb5sjFliz8
{"NO": 159.16925027658903, "YES": 133.86616776701172}
0.44849136870161627
will-the-adidas-backpack-i-bought-l
116.69747692202175
Will the Adidas Backpack I bought last till Nov. 1 2026? (4 years from purchase)
1793577540000
qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667673465613
Unconditional Probability
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The backpack was purchased near the end of October for 59.99$. It is a \"Classic 3S 4 Backpack\". I have been using it daily going to/from work, and for grocery runs (approx weekly).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1361843685983447}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4617277778680389, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
150
UnconditionalProbability
1717901048941
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…7a2-20559f42ee5b
3
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1667673465990}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737080113}]
["sports-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1717901045831
1667673987841
0.23737264082235937
WNxIJiTBvNG4E4Hfns69
{"NO": 62.07185319448037, "YES": 1746.4174570345544}
0
will-the-first-ministerial-cabinet
4166.340517248555
Will the first ministerial cabinet of the newly elected government in Brazil have gender parity?
1672674991787
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-1
0
4.116220463822276
True
play
NO
public
1667678720387
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved as YES if 50% or more of the ministerial or equivalent* positions of the goverrnment that assumes power in Brazil on January 2nd, 2023, are occupied by people that self-identify as women.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672674991787
170
BernardoChrispimBaron
1672674300750
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…d69-40cb215b8e16
8
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667679435346}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1667678720639}, {"na...
["brazil-3292d24d179f", "politics-default", "latam-caribbean"]
0.5
1672674300602
1672674188011
0.01
0.691889670299523
QZWkVteY2Kri1V2N1YtS
{"NO": 103.84471043358148, "YES": 102.96626631462001}
1
will-rodrigo-pacheco-be-reelected-p
196.66119866415906
Will Rodrigo Pacheco be re-elected President of Brazilian Senate?
1675292768337
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-1
0
3.177393621146217
True
play
YES
public
1667679183384
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[pt-BR]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) será reeleito presidente do Senado brasileiro?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675292768337
110
BernardoChrispimBaron
1675249661938
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…71f-5eb3f3315c54
5
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667679382177}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1667679183673}, {"na...
["brazil-3292d24d179f", "politics-default", "latam-caribbean"]
0.5
1675249661792
1667679263465
0.69
0.48875106808740754
x4QVEKMGSZbmMkzoM8Bt
{"NO": 16.29354410656788, "YES": 321.1885315700141}
0.04625341796294683
will-the-uks-ease-of-doing-business
254.09565835518205
Will the UK's Ease Of Doing Business score rise above 83.8 before the next UK General Election?
1735762380000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667679212859
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-05 8:13 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2025-01-01 8:13 pm", "type": "text"}]}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.9071267851679474, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
70
NathanpmYoung
1716972850057
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…26e-353b5f175b90
3
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667679213052}, {"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfw...
["economics-default", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election"]
0.5
1716972514798
1716972848812
0.6815351378250439
XG16nsCzKfuTj5K0zO6W
{"NO": 1120.3692568339632, "YES": 42.659409004707015}
1
will-arthur-lira-be-reelected-presi
1157.3444058269522
Will Arthur Lira be re-elected President of Brazilian Chamber of Deputies?
1675293746938
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-1
0
3.8941414210608825
True
play
YES
public
1667679319676
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[pt-BR]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arthur Lira (PP-AL) será reeleito presidente da Câmara dos Deputados brasileiras?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675293746938
130
BernardoChrispimBaron
1674995152363
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…50e-2e73f2a1789a
6
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668282788920}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1667679319893}, {"na...
["brazil-3292d24d179f", "politics-default", "latam-caribbean"]
0.5
1674995152237
1667679378803
0.98
0.656399342355783
fkVS6pPSTOPzJWUZjMSC
{"NO": 2247.0985893158995, "YES": 1839.7528851599766}
0.6999999999999998
erin-stock-permanent
92760.86973207734
Erin Stock (Permanent)
33217163036426
JPuDK6vqApNtlerwo6Qis33ZjE83
cpmm-1
0
4.681578060109489
False
basic
public
1667679414118
odecay
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for Erin aka Straighteraide.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent market and its ...
STONK
{"day": 0.09999999999999998, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 16.452645595874476, "platformFee": 4.203289006018025, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1990
odecay
1720028337434
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJQp3YEgGP_Ia7crDLnmrqkLeCQecbSTfueNIObw=s96-c
4
442
1
293
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti...
["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.5
False
False
1720028333457
1684470528873
False
0.14191690228172885
nF4wvcxklpAiUQg0Ap5J
{"NO": 90.75858278101468, "YES": 1023.0788841492825}
0
will-my-team-up-late-win-the-2023-m
933.1124325610815
Will my team (Up Late) win the 2023 MIT Mystery Hunt?
1673874143911
a8oh8BYRMsQE8hwf1cYBt3AJ1uJ3
cpmm-1
0
5.280111211227568
True
play
NO
public
1667679647904
Apiellis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the past 3 years, my team has not completed the hunt.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More data available through the links at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://puzzles.mit.edu/huntsbyy...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673874143911
150
Apiellis
1673741914857
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FApiellis%2FFMVhg4UnCm.30?alt=media&token=2a51db10-d515-4e09-a4c1-e884720e2979
8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…bfa-ed8a2c4b8649
8
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "a8oh8BYRMsQE8hwf1cYBt3AJ1uJ3", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1667679648120}, {"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741666}]
["gaming", "mit"]
0.5
1673741914694
1673623741583
0.01
0.5820834995470769
M6CB0FYkbVKou5HnB6yP
{"NO": 198.3875574994741, "YES": 24.89282350150378}
1
will-i-get-the-new-cli-to-featurepa
156.09565835518208
Will I get the new CLI to feature-parity with the old CLI by the dawn of the 7th?
1667706298714
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
4.560550546326395
True
play
YES
public
1667680074692
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-07 10:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667706298714
70
LivInTheLookingGlass
1710462495358
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…9a6-5e15176e85e3
4
[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c...
["fun", "programming", "olivia", "short-fuse", "management-of-olivias-bot"]
0.5
1667706108309
1667706307182
0.9173576520519133
0.09135500505960094
nnMf2P1M3fXV9xIEcrU3
{"NO": 113.47809499268145, "YES": 1230.4342926908832}
0
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-d63e8403eaf8
1240
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in North Dakota
1667995199000
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
7.003233253193418
True
play
NO
public
1667680199556
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668022578284
170
MarketManagerBot
1668022580382
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-28d9e7312299
8
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667680222662}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680220767}, {"name"...
["us-2022-elections", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1667991602717
1668022579771
0.9060325905671648
RyjUzwXqqUCdYb03AAJ7
{"NO": 1490.000000000002, "YES": 111.7250374224369}
1
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-2e17162e35e3
1320
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in Oregon
1667970103712
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.874559974199531
True
play
YES
public
1667680262288
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667970103712
170
MarketManagerBot
1667969787858
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…26f-a2603c737114
9
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680302404}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680299675...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667913950745
1667969785725
0.9922832693163521
0.10892507656024103
cLKORRR7LBXZCkT8FGoT
{"NO": 98.06517031696433, "YES": 838.9703319630044}
0
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-6c17e79dcbc7
1121.0296680369966
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in South Carolina
1667965379079
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.58001957783382
True
play
NO
public
1667680327352
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667965379079
150
MarketManagerBot
1667891357270
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…b95-c558efe5bcef
7
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680347655}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680344525...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667891356060
1667680425241
0.014087061209122419
0.07133513910548499
bey2p5XtSeU5okOWs8pr
{"NO": 189.9050634938291, "YES": 1472.651333042379}
0
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-9e20bcf16a85
1694.9792713561849
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in South Dakota
1667995199000
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.000911211304975
True
play
NO
public
1667680390830
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668022588658
250
MarketManagerBot
1668022590932
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…daf-e9570fed229c
12
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667680412244}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680411215}, {"name"...
["us-2022-elections", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1667991601816
1668022590351
0.9145884477382119
icyW91rtir3n7rtcBcxE
{"NO": 1659.0139862119406, "YES": 164.63485458586274}
1
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-78137b484e82
1850.9860137880612
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in Vermont
1667995199000
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
5.620866638705983
True
play
YES
public
1667680453261
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668022607256
230
MarketManagerBot
1668022610224
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6d3-4abcaa31bbce
11
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680471230}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680469208...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667991601037
1668022609696
0.15056963718916466
cKFYGyhGGsh0rHk9xgIy
{"NO": 60.50150370168207, "YES": 585.6201354239241}
0
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-8042bb8156aa
902.4760073628672
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in the Oklahoma Special Election
1667965242559
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.6652248169884825
True
play
NO
public
1667680515950
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667965242559
110
MarketManagerBot
1667959781437
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…ca0-ef7e15643ae6
4
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680535776}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680534431...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667959665785
1667959779376
0.017983677169202218
0.11316770645810771
YwTTTTAqjxc180Yikvcx
{"NO": 103.52389612120916, "YES": 549.9999999999992}
0
a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-04f9b3c70a46
400
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in the Oklahoma Regular Election
1667965246657
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.161638946720031
True
play
NO
public
1667680579318
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667965246657
150
MarketManagerBot
1667859636875
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…9dc-bef3fcae1276
7
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680600437}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680598329...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667859636770
1667680650923
0.023455831053004746
0.12229900608921399
8RH4tEcTXYCyodKjKnrJ
{"NO": 91.35722372985805, "YES": 1185.0000000000002}
0
democrats-will-get-this-proportion
1035
Democrats will get this proportion of seats in the 2022 Oklahoma Senate races
1667965254075
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
6.137853485258735
True
play
NO
public
1667680804767
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the average of these two markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "YwTTTTAqjxc180Yikvcx,cKFYGyhGGsh0rHk9xgIy"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667965254075
150
MarketManagerBot
1667965227783
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…0ea-ad0365ea6af9
8
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667680830348}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667680828248...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667913988017
1667965225792
0.01062821669603365
0.26175263552555
GZSMgsRaA0BRAyBN9klh
{"NO": 161.64178896412852, "YES": 11511.14201045921}
0
will-meta-facebook-report-any-earni
11804.591010887301
Will Meta (Facebook) report any earning loss in any quarter reports of 2023?
1706835360000
wv3Lk2600LRnzhD1nTJPZTMxP1z1
cpmm-1
0.04042933343702084
1.830618563150292
True
play
NO
public
1667681487542
Steven Yang
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will use scheduled earning calls as reference, if any earning period reports negative cashflow, it would resolve to yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1706846237004
570
StevenYang
1706846237277
1.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj5FMCXDey_0_ABwaLej7cjSe06lTC8mg_0hH8q-HM=s96-c
30
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f6b-05f35d96ee3f
25
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "wv3Lk2600LRnzhD1nTJPZTMxP1z1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667681488064}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511338022...
["economics-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.13734129586812518
0.5
1706831605922
1706831590594
0
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
0.21378801753661808
FkHW8poiOYAoo1zV3Btc
{"NO": 102.65316506182073, "YES": 1029.750549364796}
0
will-starset-release-a-new-album-in
1040.9348177234256
Will Starset release a new album in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
3.2992576913653635
True
play
NO
public
1667682251388
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A 'new album' has at least 8 new songs that haven't been released on another of their albums in any form.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704140203760
190
NcyRocks
1704140204034
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…1f6-7c44ffae6cb9
3
[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1667686307470}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701137230874}]
["music-f213cbf1eab5", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703878672906
1703454970579
0.03
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.5069724911853791
AQPTqQbQYfYBFaiheZL4
{"NO": 249.17361254046236, "YES": 353.8294642634708}
0.428571428571
this-percent-of-bettors-read-the-de
313.0514848054925
This percent of bettors read the description
1667869140000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
1.1484084107689148
True
play
MKT
public
1667682529937
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percent of non-bot betters which include \"Macbeth\" in a comment on this market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-07 7:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667872980783
310
LivInTheLookingGlass
1710462487501
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
16
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c49-0d3c65543a61
16
[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]
["fun", "olivia", "short-fuse"]
0.5
1667865073015
1667799841629
0.428571428571
0.1376951979488398
f9Hdfe4VbXfTnQUsRVyT
{"NO": 54.57236682328013, "YES": 887.9994466460532}
0
will-the-most-expensive-house-in-th
1008.0005533539467
Will the most expensive house in California go "pending" before Christmas? ($225 Million) https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33550-Pacific-Coast-Hwy-Malibu-CA-90265/68978572_zpid/
1671955140000
8p8ip42Ib0bFD4DzIIgkMcZa8B13
cpmm-1
0
7.6849058782094435
True
play
NO
public
1667682750772
Michaelscott
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33550-Pacific-Coast-Hwy-Malibu-CA-90265/68978572_zpid/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33550-Pacific-Coast-Hwy-Malibu-CA-90265/68978572_zpid/", "c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1683472456938
110
Michaelscott
1671952400964
0
https://firebasestorage.…94b-cb527428dddd
4
0
27
https://firebasestorage.…e57-6273101757eb
4
[{"name": "Real Estate", "slug": "real-estate", "userId": "8p8ip42Ib0bFD4DzIIgkMcZa8B13", "groupId": "JCSx09py8PNgRaE9gc2u", "createdTime": 1667682751297}]
["real-estate"]
0.5
1671952399742
1667682842652
0.01
0.34381018803495156
MMYbuH7rvWxDSHsgG4tG
{"NO": 84.23094650803843, "YES": 255.00000000000009}
0
manifold-adds-native-support-for-po
1125
Manifold adds native support for polls by 2023-02-05
1675573200000
sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1
cpmm-1
2.7805417228671714
True
play
NO
public
1667683822579
Martin Randall
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Manifold adds native support for betting on the result of informal internet polls hosted on Manifold. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no additional support by market close.", "type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675857106112
130
MartinRandall
1675604318888
0
https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…63c-a719d363403e
6
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667683823005}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1675566006202
1675604317644
0.15
0.49999999999999883
NcVwg73471rF8xj9AMwu
{"NO": 497.4937185533102, "YES": 5.025189076296044}
1
will-skillet-release-new-material-i
455.1933035993015
Will Skillet release new material in 2023?
1676615716376
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
6.379655061745128
True
play
YES
public
1667685852025
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1676615716376
50
NcyRocks
1670564682754
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…b11-b850c14ed23e
3
[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1667686323372}]
["music-f213cbf1eab5"]
0.5
1670564682551
1667685940353
0.99
0.15400434477223102
0zKvvApw9qZ9zONiKm8j
{"NO": 76.50526365369925, "YES": 697.2479253679685}
0
will-skillet-release-a-new-album-in
585.666650164342
Will Skillet release a new album in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
5.42037932659395
True
play
NO
public
1667689450360
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A 'new album' has at least 8 new songs that haven't been released on another of their albums in any form.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704140231697
130
NcyRocks
1704140231976
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
0
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2a6-524336317707
2
[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1667689508441}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1682615870619}, ...
["music-f213cbf1eab5", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703488113104
1703488155434
0.02
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.5
FReOV7hdqtbYkQQvLGM1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
what-markets-were-intentionally-and
0
What markets were intentionally and fraudulently misresolved in 2022?
1667690656689
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667690642399
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The goal of this market is to compile a list of clear cases of authors committing intentional fraud in misresolutions. These are very rare and I can only think of a couple examples.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667690656689
50
jack
1667691220386
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…bff-39eae6e19a38
2
[]
[]
0.5
1667691218679
0.5
5mWYKcPYzVnEQv7SGO1W
what-markets-were-intentionally-and-cfda0f20db47
336.19313203233617
What markets were intentionally and fraudulently misresolved in 2022?
1672549140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.736243869849087
True
play
MKT
public
1667690867358
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The goal of this market is to compile a list of clear cases of authors committing intentional fraud in misresolutions. These are very rare and I can only think of a couple examples. [Edit: they were very rare until recently when a few scammer autho...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673396023748
900.0000000000006
jack
1676323128315
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
11
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "66fb87d9b6a4", "prob": 0.06649194054478594, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9828418031938128, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.798525609775814, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5mWYKcPYzVnEQv7SGO1W", "createdTime": 1667690867724, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
2
https://firebasestorage.…94e-0bde08f816c5
14
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1667690915681}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "cr...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution"]
1671141445947
1676323119209
{"1f3c5166a7fb": 4.545454545454546, "226a5e18b7e4": 4.545454545454546, "2785110a73d1": 4.545454545454546, "2f1a34ace4ba": 4.545454545454546, "4156325acb15": 4.545454545454546, "55a07b30b723": 4.545454545454546, "5e5950949a25": 4.545454545454546, "6178abffa8dd": 4.545454545454546, "6f3ca84c8bf5": 4.545454545454546, "b8c...
True
0.30661891996814455
eHjlPr05GyXGALpwzwsk
{"NO": 163.90203769039005, "YES": 833.5068162103756}
0
will-traders-be-made-whole-for-mr-s
1140.8542852695643
Will traders be made whole for Mr Stone's misresolution?
1672549140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
1.7168349525122306
True
play
NO
public
1667692066462
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2022, traders who lost mana due to the misresolution of the linked market are able to recover their losses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embe...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672549918057
290
jack
1672547325687
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
14
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…53d-911796e2aa0d
14
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667692066826}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1672547325516
1667737748941
0.08
0.21261680306882508
hguB5hlhVs2hUg2RCCzQ
{"NO": 910.6665260452469, "YES": 3673.789404605588}
0
will-twitter-have-more-than-3-hours
14636.556116988806
Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?
1672527540000
W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2
cpmm-1
0
0.5241375571629714
True
basic
NO
public
1667692537047
Franek Żak
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is impossible to tweet or read tweets for at least three consecutive hours. This outage needs to affect at least 80% of users. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 6, 12:56am: ", "type": "text"}, ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672600900421
1330
FranekZak
1672601520905
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c
67
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2fc-2f8e582557e1
58
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667692537310}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1672525470708
1672601518802
0.06
0.26939228040983815
fa0TZQ4m12lLsIeaRqu7
{"NO": 188.15943473235447, "YES": 2330.7071098988076}
0
will-matt-smith-appear-in-doctor-wh
5090.191790064536
Will Matt Smith appear in Doctor Who in 2023?
1703520000000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0.15482387060460628
1.3746215823295178
True
play
NO
public
1667693432998
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704064673212
410
NcyRocks
1704064673677
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
21
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…f41-0621fb6f9a17
4
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667693433248}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667698...
["entertainment", "doctor-who", "tv", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.11561654651341689
0.5
1703516071135
1667693599409
0.03
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
xUh39gLouswwfOec2DKV
which-of-these-countries-will-be-th
206.39245094198338
Which of these countries will be the first to become an OECD member?
1830308340000
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667694788507
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On 25 January 2022, the OECD Council ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "decided to take the first step in accession discussions with six candidate countries", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oe...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6380494330599762, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
540.0000000000001
BernardoChrispimBaron
1720012934076
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
9
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "df727461241f", "prob": 0.2689392562375735, "text": "Argentina", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.35149486028208, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.06820197727129, "textFts": "'argentina':1", "contractId": "xUh39gLouswwfOec2DKV", "createdTime": 1667694788507, "probChanges": {"day...
1
https://firebasestorage.…b51-b3110c34cfd2
8
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1667694788819}]
["world-default"]
1720012929821
1667694948315
True
True
0.1650982805710272
vGDZ2AuSkfB66QQs7ZZD
{"NO": 792.1383624176593, "YES": 1626.9556002292734}
0.08782362515729189
will-a-general-european-unionmercos
4832.6729911191105
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?
1735614000000
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-1
0.08251088464004627
9.987518412744382
False
basic
public
1667695718654
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The European Union and Mercosur states – Argentina, Brazil Paraguay and Uruguay – reached a political agreement on 28 June 2019 for an ambitious, balanced...
BINARY
{"day": 1.5265566588595902e-16, "week": 1.5265566588595902e-16, "month": 1.5265566588595902e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
BernardoChrispimBaron
1710079768122
1.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…e0a-1176541bf487
7
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1667695727584}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667695718953}, {"name": ...
["economics-default", "world-default", "latam-caribbean"]
0.10726271592021974
0.5
1710079764701
1704651370050
0.5115729427656212
YNOksZ9mD7WFdT6lNOqn
{"NO": 1293.5228714989266, "YES": 4.007629624124464}
1
will-drx-win-at-least-2-games-in-le
1704.4835051633713
Will DRX win at least 2 games in League of Legends Worlds Finals?
1667708659216
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
6.136918547775773
True
play
YES
public
1667698343203
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667708659216
110
jack
1667708645359
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…42d-817d8782d536
7
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667698343391}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667708645151
1667698443263
0.9462559505923573
0.424223065479029
BgUBs7wkxZ466HLj6lwi
{"NO": 8.91159038338631, "YES": 730.1767925652526}
0
will-drx-win-zero-games-in-league-o
873.0379758276231
Will T1 sweep League of Legends Worlds Finals? (Will DRX lose every game?)
1667702445573
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.597608742157819
True
play
NO
public
1667698387591
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 5, 9:34pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will DRX win zero games in League of Legends Worlds Finals?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will T1 sweep League of Legends Worlds Finals? (Will DRX lose every game?)", "ty...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667702445573
150
jack
1667702284771
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…77e-14a5781ffaad
7
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667698387794}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667702284584
1667698440618
0.05420475714867598
0.1414035783224772
2fmsMDW9L50cv8MvFpy0
{"NO": 111.75227859775877, "YES": 1218.0633182733106}
0
will-peter-capaldi-appear-in-doctor
2703.3378362759245
Will Peter Capaldi appear in Doctor Who in 2023?
1703520000000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
3.1673494552852404
True
play
NO
public
1667698864060
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704064668652
190
NcyRocks
1704064668953
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
10
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…3c2-cf0b3337e255
4
[{"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667707149150}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667707...
["doctor-who", "entertainment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703516085349
1667699036912
0.01
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.18315679512451502
NO9c6hpfVIpwYX52BpfH
{"NO": 107.97881489087787, "YES": 313.21486083916113}
0.07
20x-amplified-odds-will-a-nuclear-w
538.2367980085228
[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?
1668914104383
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.9181134175468912
True
play
MKT
public
1667699393091
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when it reaches quiescence (72 hours with probability moving by at most 1%). This market resolves 30 days later.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If during that month a nucle...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671647328937
150
Jenny
1671644104468
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
0
7
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…19d-c0bb23ce361d
8
[{"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1669263297044}, {"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701517304},...
["experimental", "nuclear-risk", "amplified-odds", "randomization", "fairlyrandom"]
0.5
1668642764470
1671644102952
0.07
0.4940972898587531
fNO0SDBNda7icntyp2mG
{"NO": 10.000987749948377, "YES": 307.524624134269}
0
will-t1-win-game-2-of-league-of-leg
641.4361897097954
Will T1 win Game 2 of League of Legends Worlds Finals?
1667702275455
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.4094239165976035
True
play
NO
public
1667699614025
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = T1, NO = DRX.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-05 10:37 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667702344438
130
jack
1667703162404
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…b41-45adf7c31f23
7
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667699614265}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667702262063
1667703161522
0.5
0.632080691925838
oEGENePnWO0I85Rp3swT
{"NO": 2307.7185382083126, "YES": 567.4516152490842}
1
will-brazil-decriminalize-the-recre
5133.293534481972
Will Brazil decriminalize the recreational use of marijuana by the end of 2026?
1719363205219
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
cpmm-1
0
9.882590519079596
True
basic
YES
public
1667701337792
Franklin Baldo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.28125184019113647}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.805684418002937, "platformFee": 3.361397409026922, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719363205219
1000
FranklinBaldo
1719363874432
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
1
30
1
https://firebasestorage.…b37-cef54b673410
14
[{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1667701338250}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1667776671573}, {"name...
["brazil-3292d24d179f", "culture-default", "weed", "marijuana", "law-order"]
0.5
1719359772758
1719363873025
0.87
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
0.5528898836271079
EV3Wf3ejbrTNNhpR8KEm
{"NO": 1022.1448577829462, "YES": 12.7673687147215}
1
will-t1-win-game-3-of-league-of-leg
2598.745776737822
Will T1 win Game 3 of League of Legends Worlds Finals?
1667705446578
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.0410744759414525
True
play
YES
public
1667702374787
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = T1, NO = DRX.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667705446578
370
jack
1667705495652
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…f4b-d220cc52a440
10
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667702375028}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667705414887
1667705493841
0.5
0.3882672571987091
TGCTcLCqEjAmIDOoqGyx
{"NO": 90.30007048671537, "YES": 141.99999999999994}
0.287554625226569
will-my-investigation-reveal-cats-v
32
Will my investigation reveal cats vocalize ultrasonically? (5% chance to resolve)
1668295603266
G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2
cpmm-1
0
2.79145266023729
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667702579908
Optimization Process
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I just heard the claim that cats often vocalize in a frequency band beyond human hearing. I'm mildly skeptical, and don't want to go to the trouble of investigating.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668295603266
110
OptimizationProcess
1668295624656
0
https://firebasestorage.…675-d9bd884d35db
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…cf4-b4532d078c79
5
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667702580325}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1667712955747}]
["science-default", "experimental"]
0.5
1668011898497
1668295619203
0.28755462522656894
0.4008491562908854
V3DcUZ96tE2XDtX7LOw2
{"NO": 18.571787429706788, "YES": 3294.9926515781804}
0
will-t1-win-game-4-of-league-of-leg
7557.906977069826
Will T1 win Game 4 of League of Legends Worlds Finals?
1667708466184
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
4.337730320298846
True
play
NO
public
1667704695804
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = T1, NO = DRX.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667708466184
670
jack
1667708989973
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…d56-364ebe18be9b
10
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667704696215}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667708457599
1667708988897
0.58
0.5800607776097562
QaPSwi0PkTvH3da6iufs
{"NO": 207.343042500578, "YES": 176.28457883938484}
0
will-t1-win-game-5-of-league-of-leg
65.00000000000003
Will T1 win Game 5 of League of Legends Worlds Finals?
1667708960671
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
1.748524626185143
True
play
NO
public
1667705942560
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: let's bet here instead:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LaurenceTurner/will-t1-win-worlds", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "pa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667712539906
510
jack
1667708863610
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…308-d181c6196922
5
[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1667705942944}]
["league-of-legends-world-2022"]
0.5
1667708863468
1667708728143
0.6189981167231565
0.5068031756695313
ee8yas6DXRNjp9uTSmWr
{"NO": 941.0670391553069, "YES": 1754.3722992199914}
0.3553423646044257
will-texas-legalize-splitrate-prope
887.8607917489635
Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?
1830319140000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
0
8.670944561804472
False
basic
public
1667707776739
Lars Doucet
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The state constitution of Texas has traditionally been interpreted to explicitly forbid both split-rate property tax and Land Value Tax. Split-rate property tax is any property tax regime where land and buildings are allowed to be taxed at separate...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1310
LarsDoucet
1680716650881
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
4
16
0
https://firebasestorage.…4db-8f46e417262a
18
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667707777192}, {"name": "Texas", "slug": "texas", "userId": "s8IkipB5KCbi8Ny6pY1nr4RGjkV2", "groupId": "A4Z3W67n93LMKcZEILwf", "createdTime": 1677435478903}]
["us-politics", "texas"]
0.5
1680716650492
1667845411713
0.2209363707031984
5hM8k8hvTDzCCjHtzS7S
{"NO": 93.38276390673964, "YES": 1389.0743527748396}
0
will-jodie-whittaker-appear-in-doct
1385.1576831787256
Will Jodie Whittaker appear in Doctor Who in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
3.350044824004342
True
play
NO
public
1667712695967
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704064664549
190
NcyRocks
1704064664890
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
1
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…7b7-eac8671b185a
4
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667712696175}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667719...
["entertainment", "doctor-who", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703575133922
1667712837794
0.02
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.1875382932703484
2ogzpbVrHHZL4FEE1gTP
{"NO": 250.35959856638678, "YES": 1373.630806201837}
0
will-manifold-experience-major-tech
1091.1299644693454
Will Manifold experience major technical problems on Election Day?
1668146340000
LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2
cpmm-1
0
1.878455968815135
True
play
NO
public
1667712736823
wavedash
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, if the site is temporarily inaccessible due to a (unintentional) DDoS.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668154187640
370
wavedash
1668142744298
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c
15
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6f0-7c19c301678d
17
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667712737182}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1668142742844
1668109725063
0.04037235055390833
GU26LrojrjiM1qc4TuxV
what-day-will-i-die-in-jan-2023
500
What day will I die in Jan 2023?
1667713535628
G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.695099173273781
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667712745593
Optimization Process
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"(survive)\", if I survive until Feb 1 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "co...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667713535628
300
OptimizationProcess
1667713567584
0
https://firebasestorage.…675-d9bd884d35db
1
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "d52e199fda21", "prob": 0.9777777777777777, "text": "(survive)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.688665548562145, "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4020151261036857, "textFts": "'surviv':1", "contractId": "GU26LrojrjiM1qc4TuxV", "createdTime": 1667712745593, "probChanges": {"day"...
https://firebasestorage.…9ed-4adb2483ca13
2
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667713009625}, {"name": "Jokes", "slug": "jokes", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "2zIDGOz7Q1vYxKsRNKlY", "createdTime": 1667712745799}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "exp...
["jokes", "fun", "experimental"]
1667712773736
1667713568238
True
p2Th54ceDdYcJUvgpqpH
whenhow-will-i-die-in-jan-2023
1300
When&how will I die in Jan 2023?
1672559940000
G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.650199525702555
True
play
661d1eba8b24
public
1667713678948
Optimization Process
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"(survive)\", if I survive until Feb 1 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "co...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675274197120
340
OptimizationProcess
1675274833628
0
https://firebasestorage.…675-d9bd884d35db
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "226a8aa9f9bc", "prob": 0.00510204081632653, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.043843767798332614, "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.549534720674862, "textFts": "", "contractId": "p2Th54ceDdYcJUvgpqpH", "createdTime": 1667713679297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
7
https://firebasestorage.…86c-0da0c3038780
8
[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1667713679163}, {"name": "Jokes", "slug": "jokes", "userId": "G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2", "groupId": "2zIDGOz7Q1vYxKsRNKlY", "createdTime": 1667713688047}]
["experimental", "jokes"]
1667857766672
1675274832011
{"661d1eba8b24": 100}
True
0.18040160700331495
bxWdSx9WyEgZ9WItm6hH
{"NO": 72.71587730158319, "YES": 822.0000000000002}
0
will-christopher-eccleston-appear-i
692
Will Christopher Eccleston appear in Doctor Who in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
4.869795184960978
True
play
NO
public
1667714669248
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704064659390
130
NcyRocks
1704064659722
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
7
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…604-685a0bcb3365
5
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667714669494}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667719...
["entertainment", "doctor-who", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703530895356
1667714742957
0.02
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.8968133535400181
0hLu5vLFbwIdChawjRQY
{"NO": 491.2166845514063, "YES": 45.37803282288661}
1
will-murray-gold-compose-for-doctor
1034.3762615825972
Will Murray Gold compose for Doctor Who in 2023?
1701132825947
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
10.044087755072802
True
play
YES
public
1667715955544
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701132837927
90
NcyRocks
1684647471362
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
1
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…a4a-6f1951950bb5
3
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667715955758}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667719...
["entertainment", "doctor-who"]
0.5
1684647471184
1682364259213
0.99
0.4976327686852411
L7Xye1XAP8gDOEHes4uq
{"NO": 188.57619175697877, "YES": 936.528664925846}
0
after-6-months-of-feminizing-hrt-ho
1200.5357313216628
After 6 months of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in chest circumference (in inches)?
1675659540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
1.056910623356315
True
play
MKT
public
1667716845986
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"ty...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675985118836
470
LivInTheLookingGlass
1675643800276
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
13
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…260-aacbb3816b2e
13
[{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1667716916153}, {"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1667716913859}, {"name":...
["personal-goals", "olivia", "trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "fun"]
0.6561186879912071
1675643800098
1667716924363
0
0.20693668863138376
ySwYmTpnZuP8zTiw0JsN
{"NO": 51.672578367805656, "YES": 694.9686318458375}
0
will-jo-martin-appear-in-doctor-who
667.6025403784439
Will Jo Martin appear in Doctor Who in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
5.138455702683549
True
play
NO
public
1667719553026
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704065265648
110
NcyRocks
1704065265875
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a70-4135d8fb83d5
3
[{"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1667719724527}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1673423...
["doctor-who", "entertainment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703530867742
1667719635361
0.02
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.06468061104393408
F7OpKcuShR6Z0ujDrQP2
{"NO": 294.05764848231985, "YES": 386.3672063261084}
0
will-anyone-successfully-contest-on-8245fe15603f
908.701798277496
Will anyone successfully contest one of my resolution decisions in 2023?
1704020400000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
4.7232249482190625
True
play
NO
public
1667723153401
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO by default, YES if (in 2023) there is a poll on Manifold itself or the official Manifold Discord where a majority of voters take issue with the way I handled a market's resolution, or someone convinces me I handled a resolut...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704065259907
330
NcyRocks
1704065260143
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
0
19
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…394-238f8ee3b898
9
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1672612382450}, {"name": "ArbBot Inbox", "slug": "arbbot-inbox", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HjArp8Z2Otc2dD...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "arbbot-inbox", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1693951909503
1684901557386
0.05
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.2441586588601674
DpcZWdQQJwYrpnxAPaQZ
{"NO": 1282.4082516591911, "YES": 441.6600540517044}
0.48399080547341916
will-robert-downey-jr-appear-in-ave
696.0953422598953
Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?
1777546800000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
9.535392105788073
False
basic
public
1667726753655
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding archive footage.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 6, 11:04pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Robert Downey Jr appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.2345658311864433, "month": 0.2641685140194262}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.433957404023623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
NcyRocks
1719903092052
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
16
1
https://firebasestorage.…0dc-c5902d66b22a
8
[{"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1668310122852}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lg...
["entertainment", "marvel-cinematic-universe"]
0.5
1719903088974
1667726874332
0.13771131247390347
tfkRbrMmrN5c5nhRlma1
{"NO": 95.13378777901744, "YES": 11340.238816947154}
0
wordt-er-nog-voor-2024-een-mens-ged
11215.886458771427
Wordt er nog voor 2024 een mens gedood door een wolf in Nederland?
1704105071111
tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3
cpmm-1
0
3.8947648242145183
True
play
NO
public
1667726881968
Wie Dan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Geld voor ieder mens dat overlijdt na een aanval van een wolf op Nederlands grondgebied. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704105071111
210
WieDan
1704105071903
0
https://firebasestorage.…4d5-fa2d148276f6
12
0
https://firebasestorage.…1aa-33def3536cf5
7
[{"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "userId": "tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1667726882189}]
["nederland"]
0.5
1704105066855
1667726997315
0.02
tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3
0.31378134907941485
DEXtroYO9iPheKG8B8rz
{"NO": 798.4623545256934, "YES": 1433.0742372187797}
0.20304196888775766
will-a-new-party-be-elected-to-nz-p
1990.686426536979
Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?
1893409200000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0.13849024214358543
9.682806253007884
False
basic
public
1667730353641
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I.e. a party that has not been elected to Parliament before.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.026870432022028573, "month": 0.003041968887757679}
0
{"creatorFee": 13.53117181440865, "platformFee": 0.24627165711375057, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
NcyRocks
1719853356939
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
22
2
https://firebasestorage.…40c-101f743c6b26
8
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667730353901}, {"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1667731493674}, {"name"...
["politics-default", "nz-politics", "new-zealand", "ancient-markets"]
0.12916414837615406
0.5
1719853353853
1667730380942
0.3762174306661222
fAQsAnGFaSDF4KBad1Qk
{"NO": 859.8317545966921, "YES": 20.892123334642804}
1
wordt-er-nog-voor-2024-een-mens-aan
1853.2506441978926
Wordt er nog voor 2024 een mens aangevallen door een wolf in Nederland?
1688979502750
tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3
cpmm-1
0
3.106764887548801
True
play
YES
public
1667731974061
Wie Dan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Iets telt pas als een aanval als er iemand gebeten of op eniger wijze verwondt is geraakt door een wolf. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1688979502750
230
WieDan
1688979549376
0
https://firebasestorage.…4d5-fa2d148276f6
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…27d-7c333240117d
10
[{"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "userId": "tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1667731974319}]
["nederland"]
0.5
1688928641376
1688979547091
0.96
0.11918842111983302
YtrvXE8wUVSxv8v0t90Y
{"NO": 153.43275388020248, "YES": 316.96586291026165}
0.061475524558651046
will-anyone-successfully-contest-on-572e14fcecea
468.57263028730927
Will anyone successfully contest one of my resolution decisions before 2031?
1924945200000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667733952880
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO by default, YES if (by 2031) there is a poll on Manifold itself or the official Manifold Discord where a majority of voters take issue with the way I handled a market's resolution, or someone convinces me I handled a resolut...
BINARY
{"day": 3.469446951953614e-17, "week": 3.469446951953614e-17, "month": 3.469446951953614e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
190
NcyRocks
1681853364640
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
1
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…69a-c679ac681082
4
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1672612377583}, {"name": "ArbBot Inbox", "slug": "arbbot-inbox", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HjArp8Z2Otc2dD...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "arbbot-inbox"]
0.5
1681853364525
1667734089688
0.7423940758241451
JJgWX3RfP7mqXxKioRj8
{"NO": 596.1574835224126, "YES": 81.01818175690151}
1
will-the-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-be-t
466.1742632851573
Will the "SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust" be trading over $350 on 2023-01-01?
1672527660000
w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32
cpmm-1
0
3.329630435977917
True
play
YES
public
1667735050133
Gustav
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i love gambling", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672528991248
150
Gustav
1672521984755
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3GZv_-CMXczXLvdE3ElQwxwrpuvR94R3_0EqxSOQ=s96-c
7
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…011-b6ad90f23dbf
7
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667735050458}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 16677397502...
["economics-default", "wall-street-bets"]
0.5
1672521984638
1667735155489
0.95
0.08195096201456778
xI0YZJwpfttDtCJWlHb2
{"NO": 869.8076878572141, "YES": 2510.509664990817}
0.030000000000000058
will-xi-jinping-be-assassinated-bef
2757.1905172271618
Will Xi Jinping be assassinated before 2025-01-01?
1735686060000
w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32
cpmm-1
0
10.518156216836497
False
basic
public
1667735695273
Gustav
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 3.122502256758253e-17, "week": 3.122502256758253e-17, "month": 3.122502256758253e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gustav
1712542573353
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3GZv_-CMXczXLvdE3ElQwxwrpuvR94R3_0EqxSOQ=s96-c
1
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…03c-ffd63de6333d
17
[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1667735695478}]
["who-does-xi-think-he-is"]
0.5
1712542570027
1667735719615
0.20054005235738392
Zyo58iOBCN2f0RBLRZ4G
{"NO": 197.37563472811766, "YES": 2159.390244675805}
0
will-the-us-child-tax-credit-provid
2373.2987323782195
Will the US Child Tax Credit provide the maximum benefit to filers with no earnings in the 2023 tax year?
1704027300000
QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2
cpmm-1
0
2.1005425423387716
True
play
NO
public
1667739350204
Max Ghenis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US provides a Child Tax Credit of up to $2,000 per child. It phases both in and out with income, and its phase-in comes in two parts: only $1,500 is \"refundable\" (can reduce tax liability below zero), and that refundable element explicitly ph...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704070223912
350
MaxGhenis
1705945762763
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c
18
0
1
10
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667739350594}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129136555}, {"name": "US ...
["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "us-child-tax-credit"]
0.5
1704026729025
1704899862751
0.02
QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2
0.5406968999365561
LP1MyadndcccS6FkFuJ1
{"NO": 423.11839025354413, "YES": 208.30817907928008}
0.7051163454517061
what-will-the-us-supplemental-pover
134.8381541715565
What will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be in 2023?
1735650300000
QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2
cpmm-1
0.007136446509807089
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667740783120
Max Ghenis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each year, the US Census Bureau reports the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) from the prior calendar year. Unlike the Official Poverty Measure, the SPM considers taxes, in-kind benefits, and local housing costs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.02172778744968065, "platformFee": 0.02172778744968065, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
290
MaxGhenis
1713847554499
1.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…bdd-f34afecddc47
2
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667740783452}]
["economics-default"]
0.0859166919249588
0.52
1713847551068
1706974258507
0.5197895088242032
F0wr5iXrCYDhfGpiByKr
{"NO": 268.52469724858724, "YES": 271.3695898977104}
0.5171584116731939
in-2023-what-will-the-us-supplement
21
In 2023, what will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be if the Child Tax Credit provides the maximum benefit to filers with no earnings?
1735651740000
QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667741437600
Max Ghenis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a conditional market that combines two other markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the US Child Tax Credit provide the maximum bene...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
270
MaxGhenis
1705945793541
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c
2
0
1
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667741437953}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737082961...
["economics-default", "ancient-markets", "us-child-tax-credit"]
0.52
1684807585320
0.7431705608990007
8xjLL1pOQKxj97WQeT3F
{"NO": 81.2327691041385, "YES": 200.23455372732315}
1
is-jako-6-ft-tall
8524.445655593767
Is Jako 6 ft tall?
1667757598694
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
2.6569961156701956
True
play
YES
public
1667745517882
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TRUTH!!!!", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667757598694
270
Brunching
1667757588548
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…46b-9cbde8102065
14
[]
[]
0.5
1667757588267
1667747961838
0.95
0.5
LamzCiwUNXZSVcfIeXXj
{"NO": 16.329659683751444, "YES": 153.09565835518205}
1
will-will-respond-to-noris
103.09565835518207
Will WILL respond to Noris?
1667764224721
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
4.903052341442738
True
play
YES
public
1667745850642
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667764224721
50
Brunching
1667747094406
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…972-44f9b5763544
3
[]
[]
0.5
1667747094260
1667745864464
0.09638264146565706
0.8813926643003394
cHN8KDAZNodmEl5DLiku
{"NO": 457.3734411507441, "YES": 272.3511661656606}
0.9258136514003011
jakontrary-stock-permanent
33363.49771309971
Jakontrary Stock (Permanent)
33217163036423
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667746083702
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
STONK
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.1682531039922632, "platformFee": 1.1682531039922632, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
330
Brunching
1716211609323
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
1
20
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…4fa-12a6ddb7c400
2
[{"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e", "createdTime": 1689991225876}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1713585133093}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "...
["all-stonks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.11593958290742708
0.5
False
False
1716211605936
1697976474960
False
0.10317727596027049
pjmugTcabGJgdSGcsLNF
{"NO": 205.27968344660377, "YES": 2230.1104164200046}
0
will-germany-assume-neutrality-over
6591.827933264474
Will Germany assume neutrality over Ukraine by March 2023?
1680325140000
ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13
cpmm-1
0
3.011126398504226
True
play
NO
public
1667746224992
Nick Allen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Germany is participating in Western sanctions of Russia, is allowing Western arms into Ukraine through Germany, and has directly provided some arms to Ukraine. Will that position of moderated support for the Western proxy war shift significantly to...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680356335336
290
NickAllen
1680008910445
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1
16
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…208-dc2d51451bfe
14
[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1667774391335}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1667746225354}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "uk...
["wars", "germany", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1680008909808
1667746321897
False
0.01
0.7051864196709688
gQL667R53OIvxoXyOKcM
{"NO": 179.3442686028213, "YES": 130.60434181583219}
0.7666075719736105
will-real-75th-percentile-software
116.50533553326717
Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in The Bay Area
1767254340000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667751300113
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current pay: 295k", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/san-francisco-bay-area", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.levels.fyi/t/...
BINARY
{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
150
VivaLaPanda
1684153597818
0
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
1
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-ee7728eeb35a
7
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667751300413}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807370835...
["technology-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1684153597681
1669365081713
0.7537782083617637
7EUG7eqG0ezr35bGRW3o
{"NO": 1175.1251024352073, "YES": 927.3913314956375}
0.7950468644306221
will-real-75th-percentile-software-861aa76e4cda
2093.2816001410633
Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in the US
1767254340000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0
9.581888267502524
False
basic
public
1667751432127
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current pay: 210k", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/san-francisco-bay-area", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.levels.fyi/t/...
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.41146198665621386, "platformFee": 0.41146198665621386, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
VivaLaPanda
1714088646095
0
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
3
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…a3d-fd6847d9202c
13
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667751432436}, {"name": "Programming Automation", "slug": "programming-automation", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "cWNwyAspeBXqPZ4GoCn4", "createdTime...
["technology-default", "programming-automation"]
0.5
1714088639994
1679852985935
0.19808402329046315
jh18sb0mWs16b0eZzedu
{"NO": 174.44008713388337, "YES": 515.9743825328836}
0
by-the-end-of-2023-will-the-profit
366.1386003133332
By the end of 2023, will the profit or portfolio value graphs have the ability to show me all my data?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.5085800712055533
True
play
NO
public
1667752546024
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now, selecting \"all\" on the profit and portfolio graphs on a user's profile only goes back to June 22, 2022, despite the existence of a lot of profits made and portfolio changes before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704241391223
230
IsaacKing
1704241391478
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…cfb-ef85b73796c5
7
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667752546428}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131023798}, {"name": "...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.5
1704070756937
1667752708179
0.08
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.5635080042267941
ZaHiyHgABks2pojYMPh9
{"NO": 109.99999999999993, "YES": 75.58739465382116}
1
whenever-i-go-to-create-a-new-marke
20
Whenever I go to create a new market, it's autofilling the description of the last market I created. -- <@163751683837526016>
1667779140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.0784602709021334
True
play
YES
public
1667753811332
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038859279530209361", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669148772660
90
ManifoldBugs
1667827401022
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
2
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…bd2-85e81a583b18
6
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667753811608}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667762477928
1667827387635
0.6526260270358413
0.4329321852149399
XcXbBn4exSVICSC4naDS
{"NO": 422.79025421264384, "YES": 206.36907363384714}
0.6428571428571429
taco-tuesday-118-cambridge-how-many
238.1219117838457
Taco Tuesday 11/8 @ Cambridge: How many people will come?
1668004253987
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
1.1871715266154055
True
play
MKT
public
1667756453006
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, eating at 7pm. If you want to bring something, drinks, desserts, and especially new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668004253987
310
Austin
1667958473751
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…a72-35c0dd7d2655
6
[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1667756453243}, {"name": "Boston EA", "slug": "boston-ea", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "NQjvAIEGvjk4VohdeUy8", "createdTime": 1667776435499}]
["sf-events", "boston-ea"]
0.42857142857142855
1667958473647
1667756558886
0.6428571428571429
0.5000000000000039
4BBuET44AHH9eSsEzjL6
{"NO": 825, "YES": 3.0303030303030596}
1
permanent-jako-stock
775
Permanent Jako Stock
1667758356168
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
6.739305112143777
True
play
YES
public
1667757700164
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "vote for le jack and get money back!!", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667758356168
50
Brunching
1667757856598
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…580-5831a94f14fe
2
[]
[]
0.5
1667757856434
1667757733923
0.9963403476669717
0.18756865057612562
QDb7niq7UpXE5ReYZ7h4
{"NO": 232.86387164996765, "YES": 554.3443967093722}
0
will-a-polyomino-of-size-less-than
695.5298289353831
Will a polyomino of size less than 25 that does not surround a 1x1 hole be discovered by December 1, 2022?
1669881540000
WfAFLEM2pTShXSfpJjhnNluUpHr1
cpmm-1
0
2.1089310853793672
True
play
NO
public
1667758039540
Drake Thomas
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this Math StackExchange post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3986555/what-is-the-smallest-polyomino-that-cant-surround-a-1-times-1-hole", "cla...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670005421559
290
maskedtorah
1669880627041
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhelGXaiOT8Yez0EGWzGxGeX1XnQrI3yt28I-9t0Q=s96-c
1
15
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…01b-fbf7a6d0cd28
16
[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "WfAFLEM2pTShXSfpJjhnNluUpHr1", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1667758039796}, {"name": "Bounty markets", "slug": "bounty-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yogJV7GSfqfUB8rOsXhF", "createdTime": 1667776955944}]
["mathematics", "bounty-markets"]
0.5
1669880626890
1669307139994
0.08840892263228406
0.1852809957554471
RgoB1DcvM2vIojpgC5xc
{"NO": 949.6768970294816, "YES": 1138.862653926718}
0.1594088300002414
should-apple-buy-notion-to-compete
266.6923700233667
Will Apple buy Notion to compete with Microsoft Office 365?
1767243540000
m7pXnl9knhVqo0MWZrNruSRLhst1
cpmm-1
0
9.752096872249272
False
basic
public
1667758280981
Joe
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 6, 1:11pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Should Apple buy Notion to compete with Microsoft Office 365?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Apple buy Notion to compete with Microsoft Office 365?", "type": "text"}]...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
joel777
1709492677317
0
https://firebasestorage.…1d0-25ace6264ef2
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…7cd-7dbdf889f3ec
6
[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "m7pXnl9knhVqo0MWZrNruSRLhst1", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1667758281193}]
["finance"]
0.5
1709492677165
1667758428274
0.35146016893652104
1S8NJMlar167U31QiFT1
{"NO": 1011.4404628742648, "YES": 978.3450773793977}
0.35908017295242556
by-what-year-will-1b-people-be-acti
311.1420900194678
By what year will 1B+ people be active in the Metaverse
4133966400000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
9.593988337098022
False
play
public
1667761037204
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve on accounts from either (i) Meta or (ii) 3 major news publications (per my subjective judgment) that 1 billion or more unique individuals are estimated to be active in a Metaverse.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
CarsonGale
1712815576414
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
0
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…3a0-ddd945808773
7
[{"name": "Metaverse", "slug": "metaverse", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "8Kkb6qpko5pIhN4UEbhS", "createdTime": 1667761037482}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "createdTime": ...
["metaverse", "carsons-important-markets"]
0.09634253816656554
0.33333333333333326
1712815572895
1694252719736
0.6292373692021408
Cwc3fiUTlQt57Ogawpxh
{"NO": 626.4483043625567, "YES": 332.0093594509281}
0.79
poll-should-it-be-possible-to-dispu
596.2579034367672
Poll: Should it be possible to dispute and override misresolutions?
1669006740000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
0.9454809439934029
True
play
MKT
public
1667761312908
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold questions are resolved by their authors. Currently, Manifold gives full control over determining the correct resolution to their authors, although the admins do step in for markets that have been abandoned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669007229946
450
jack
1671066435359
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…597-3162b9d80917
32
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667761313313}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1669006721959
1671066431836
0.79
0.49999999999999867
Wle8y7p9uOaQG1rZ57zI
{"NO": 1055.3960733091908, "YES": 2.3687789477567094}
1
will-there-be-a-2022-black-friday-d
1013.0956583551821
Will there be a 2022 Black Friday deal involving Oculus Quest 2 that will involve $98 or more of savings from the current MSRP?
1669012089111
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
6.726422359923719
True
play
YES
public
1667761675915
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The majority of deals regarding the Oculus Quest 2 in 2021 provided an effective $50 in value, with one deal from Amazon purportedly providing $100 in savings ($50 gift card and $50 carrying case). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669012089111
50
CarsonGale
1669012049150
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…363-8e1385f88b62
3
[{"name": "Black Friday Deals", "slug": "black-friday-deals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "koL8vuHIClhvbx2KwUJu", "createdTime": 1667761676445}, {"name": "Metaverse", "slug": "metaverse", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "8Kkb6qpko5pIhN4UEbhS", "createdTime": 1667774807835}]
["black-friday-deals", "metaverse"]
0.5
1669012048969
1667761729491
0.5510641973163798
0.7717105078891027
TgSCdTQHEVaUxnljWsLW
{"NO": 1223.215850578707, "YES": 462.496204895787}
0.86
if-manifold-supports-disputing-and
2049.45626582237
If Manifold supports disputing and overriding misresolutions, will it be judged a success?
1682981940000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
0.906128803303047
True
play
MKT
public
1667761720660
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold questions are resolved by their authors. Currently, Manifold gives full control over determining the correct resolution to their authors, although the admins do step in for markets that have been abandoned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684073584530
610
jack
1684073574083
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
31
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…6eb-dec37aae9b54
22
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667761720944}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1669423096247}]
["manifold-6748e065087e", "polls"]
0.5
1682976986528
1684073570980
0.86
0.5160246632143766
aeiSgRFID48jCWz2stBJ
{"NO": 67.63974664705367, "YES": 352.1100099569395}
0.1700000000000001
the-merge-will-ethereum-have-single
770.3649813492708
"The Merge": Will Ethereum have single-slot finality by 2025-03-06?
1741219140000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667761838122
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the L1 Ethereum Mainnet protocol has single-slot finality by the specified time. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://notes.ethereum.org/@vbuterin/single...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
170
BoltonBailey
1700898736340
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…dac-733e49665b3c
5
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1667761838392}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 16677...
["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1700898736340
1667761961389
x8pMuB3bM7tskMmGaVfo
what-will-be-the-next-particle-disc
154
What will be the next particle discovered outside the Standard Model (2022)?
2524625940000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667761942912
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If one is discovered before 2050, resolves to that. Otherwise resolves to \"None before 2050\"", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
620
LivInTheLookingGlass
1694715507155
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
9
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c8ec359b5258", "prob": 0.15500031000061998, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.31080752959263, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.952398328327185, "textFts": "", "contractId": "x8pMuB3bM7tskMmGaVfo", "createdTime": 1667761943416, "probChanges": {"day": -0.84499968999...
https://firebasestorage.…908-5396e91e90f1
10
[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1667762046614}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1667761943282}, {"name": "Scien...
["olivia", "physics", "science-default"]
1694715506856
1671840645835
True
True
0.5305110139925404
LztstKZSDLbStayHgHkQ
{"NO": 974.3906514164962, "YES": 1008.5994148278792}
0.521908526159632
the-verge-fully-snarked-ethereum-by
638.800457685523
"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?
1801871940000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0
9.634215670617035
False
basic
public
1667762048801
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the L1 Ethereum Mainnet protocol has succinct block verification by the specified date. This means that checking the validity of a block requires a constant (or quasi-constant) amount of downloaded data and computation.", "type...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
BoltonBailey
1712455163719
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…51b-ded739511ae6
8
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667762049085}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 166776205...
["technology-default", "ethereum-roadmap", "ancient-markets", "blockchain-technology"]
0.5
1712455160426
1667762182961
0.287266397829084
4yiJP41blBgXX1rJ7QNF
{"NO": 73.75343999183359, "YES": 688.9830855150497}
0
will-john-swan-make-it-through-2023
1725.7872842672582
Will John Swan "make it" through 2023?
1670191148339
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
3.173131663017335
True
play
NO
public
1667762161804
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuH0f6nsAG7.png?alt=media&token=deb0649b-b304-4ea8-9350-f2e753397e15", "title": null}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670191148339
150
Brunching
1669830149730
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…bae-10d5d9963845
9
[]
[]
0.5
1669830149542
1667764020278
0.041360578069143915
0.7851355240031913
ShrAgxenZYrdfktVpJot
{"NO": 2403.7573235849686, "YES": 125.43631910138771}
1
will-a-reform-of-the-electoral-coun-c7977447618c
3667.0814628628527
Will a reform of the Electoral Count Act pass during the 117th Congress?
1672552800000
rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73
cpmm-1
0
2.780329154482912
True
play
YES
public
1667762341298
Wilson Kime
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It seems unlikely before the midterms but there is a lame duck session after the election where this may pass. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672584100626
450
wilsonkime
1672584095580
0
https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776
13
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c63-a18c899665d2
14
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667762341871}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667774719610}]
["us-politics", "politics-default"]
0.5
1672258834902
1672584092357
0.99
0.7879393944372005
QP00hEdZMIGVE4ZovakZ
{"NO": 424.6196156645826, "YES": 100.70621344156993}
1
will-i-ever-be-able-to-understand-t
601.333539079111
Will I ever be able to understand the meaning of more than 10% of Carson’s manifold markets?
1668105917458
t83EJ0hiRpQCwJfk86dT23eTimz2
cpmm-1
0
3.520460160242161
True
play
YES
public
1667762360935
Jodi Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be fair, his dad and I often wonder where his and his siblings intelligence comes from. We tend to discuss deep things such as football, movies, and dogs. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668105917458
150
JodiGale
1668088286660
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu01TdArGRBNRhfj_uDs7cKMW_k8C-giAxLzVJ2xU6o=s96-c
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…e2b-4261a564377f
9
[{"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670744067362}]
["gale-family"]
0.5
1668088285256
1667878562957
0.94
0.252060042877124
00sfwwZF4EvucBItBIRT
{"NO": 72.24180864742056, "YES": 212.50574928904197}
0
will-cobra-make-the-among-us-video
562.0580193912273
Will Cobra make the among us video
1670371140000
ZzGJE1zow5euIiXhr3xeXnPr2rr2
cpmm-1
0
3.9627381667274397
True
play
NO
public
1667762478890
hahayeah
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704305542102
110
hahayeah
1704305576351
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0SYHKBCPdIvnAS5lfTmU6ET84htPa1vO60zempvg=s96-c
0
5
0
79
https://firebasestorage.…ed3-ad1aa52d1543
6
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1667774636022}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1670236619658
1704305575656
0.1
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.12527629538489965
xp6DlTUxEkA3DVphlp6L
{"NO": 245.6242883473951, "YES": 438.12287911843873}
0
if-i-purchase-an-oculus-quest-2-in
498.5321885150075
If I purchase an Oculus Quest 2 in 2022, will I regret the decision by the end of 2023?
1704051294098
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
2.9223007292395287
True
play
NO
public
1667763102180
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I follow Metaverse-related things fairly closely, and I'd like to be more plugged into the community. The games also seem fun. I like the idea of interacting with people in the Metaverse but I don't know of any close friends with a VR device. ", "t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704051294098
290
CarsonGale
1704051365518
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…aca-23d860dc2780
10
[{"name": "Metaverse", "slug": "metaverse", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "8Kkb6qpko5pIhN4UEbhS", "createdTime": 1667763102392}, {"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "creat...
["metaverse", "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "markets-about-carson", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703099568921
1704051363963
0.07
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
0.5
NT72JT0HdxbwfiTKoh0j
{"NO": 47.08482910742559, "YES": 53.09565835518206}
0.4699999999999999
what-state-will-i-be-living-in-five
3.0956583551820627
What state will I be living in five years from now?
1667763239180
5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3
cpmm-1
0
4.372956983569307
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667763167664
Ben Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I grew up in Missouri, and currently reside and work in Utah. I'm very happy with my life here but want to move before I settle down. I have invitations to experience life in Florida and California but am open-minded about where I'll end.", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667763239180
50
BenGale
1667763248331
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3HkUkYRJWAjnw6rczch8QcXmM3ChBQrr-xovdH=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…001-6cb56634555a
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667763167911}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1672360938134}]
["personal-goals", "gale-family"]
0.5
1667763174998
1667763247843
0.5
0.34762193353606086
rCoVlLtK4tU1hNCPvKng
{"NO": 130.34469388050871, "YES": 118.2605791341028}
0.36999999999999983
will-mrcakedragonman-starve-to-deat
246.5209425806708
Will MrCakeDragonMan starve to death within the next 5 years
1827619140000
ZzGJE1zow5euIiXhr3xeXnPr2rr2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667763340971
hahayeah
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOezEd2enUR.jpg?alt=media&token=3a20b878-d4a7-4346-94af-cc3e97bb067d", "title": null}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
130
hahayeah
1691948966405
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0SYHKBCPdIvnAS5lfTmU6ET84htPa1vO60zempvg=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ca-90018bd2e613
7
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZzGJE1zow5euIiXhr3xeXnPr2rr2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667763341249}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1691948966290
1667763483833
zLHdLg1oUDEwkaWZGZZl
what-state-will-i-be-living-in-five-e2a4e1d584a
166
What state will I be living in five years from now?
1825480800000
5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667763357758
Ben Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I grew up in Missouri, and currently reside and work in Utah. I'm very happy with my life here but want to move before I settle down. I have invitations to experience life in Florida and California but am open-minded about where I'll end.", "type":...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
580
BenGale
1690410958796
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3HkUkYRJWAjnw6rczch8QcXmM3ChBQrr-xovdH=s96-c
0
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "9e24aa224091", "prob": 0.14348025711662074, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.28520746647873, "userId": "5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.550574491891425, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zLHdLg1oUDEwkaWZGZZl", "createdTime": 1667763358196, "probChanges": {"day": -0.85651974288...
https://firebasestorage.…839-94e046b7cb7d
8
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667763358062}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670743908548}, {"n...
["personal-goals", "gale-family", "ancient-markets"]
1690410958643
1667770618215
True
True
0.49999999999999994
90mC9PFMapDMvnpQBtwj
{"NO": 46.666666666666686, "YES": 53.57142857142861}
1
will-cobra-make-5o-mana
130
will cobra make 5o mana?
1667763845865
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
4.396564437788708
True
play
YES
public
1667763783845
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667763845865
70
Brunching
1667763830034
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…e15-3c3b2d992e79
3
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667832425156}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1667763820484
1667763829585
0.4655581947743466
52Sk91CKhgn9HFw6uMo9
how-will-he-die
120
how will he die
1668383940000
sC4GNjrsBvWqQ0owNxokmKw1pDp1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.819494920240895
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667763814623
reegus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FBs3V37DlfR.jpg?alt=media&token=6f6bf3bc-034f-48b5-8762-c194a52ff949", "title": null}}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701316672834
280
reegusevil
1710208053357
0
https://firebasestorage.…a95-ba4d2e7bbf17
2
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "55032cdfe96f", "prob": 0.06887052341597795, "text": "murder", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.2465876087536607, "userId": "sC4GNjrsBvWqQ0owNxokmKw1pDp1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.893864470349506, "textFts": "'murder':1", "contractId": "52Sk91CKhgn9HFw6uMo9", "createdTime": 1667763814623, "probChanges": {"day": ...
3
https://firebasestorage.…b65-0ff61d59574f
3
[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]
["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]
1667763935672
1701316669114
True
0.535811868773251
1i0Yf293jZjX6YbUGZoo
{"NO": 98.75696513930038, "YES": 82.54814716983815}
0.5799999999999985
victor-grimes
10.881480503171483
victor grimes
1667779140000
sC4GNjrsBvWqQ0owNxokmKw1pDp1
cpmm-1
0
3.0150689160594313
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667764065997
reegus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "vic grime?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1702438921018
90
reegusevil
1710208071885
0
https://firebasestorage.…a95-ba4d2e7bbf17
3
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…8df-17c3832c7e16
5
[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]
["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]
0.5
1667764229408
1702438923300
0.58
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.07612893578369712
NldP3yOxcyfXYAkthOV2
{"NO": 126.12080449598507, "YES": 509.23847159969057}
0
will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear
1711.3137557132388
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon offensively before 2024?
1704085140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
7.5704824132415
True
play
NO
public
1667764477346
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon offensively by December 31, 2023. NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704136633263
170
jack
1704136633934
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
9
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…202-9c34ddb0bbbe
7
[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1667764477645}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764621373}, {"name"...
["nuclear-risk", "north-korea", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1700235409701
1667764553200
0.02
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
0.4455720936584077
V0QzXfaWPIi38kfUvXmT
{"NO": 54.20175775491544, "YES": 93.09565835518215}
0
will-avatar-the-last-airbender-ques
23.095658355182064
Will Avatar the Last Airbender (Quest for balance) November 8th game release actually happen?
1667951940000
s4OwNnvahmV1Nl0xAXngPnJDRGc2
cpmm-1
0
3.637691819967545
True
play
NO
public
1667765278291
Justin Torre
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2022/09/new-avatar-the-last-airbender-nintendo-switch-listing-appears-online", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2022/09/new-avatar-the-last-airbender-n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667959385318
70
JustinPooPooPeePee
1667912717566
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnwhccsX2_pKhZz-Z9Ccux9Zs-mLoX6Xofi0Owg=s96-c
3
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…527-9cd9a7c7b4e8
4
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1667774255456}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1667912717463
1667765376846
0.318756583288279
0.14797561500922496
hgrG0UKtn3eVfSdAoPel
{"NO": 956.0029217027621, "YES": 1148.5503879472035}
0.1263015959329007
will-the-descriptor-the-nword-itsel
922.8096746302358
Will the term "the N-word" itself be considered obscene before 2036?
2082776400000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.742825172565375
False
basic
public
1667765467319
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at any point \"the N word\" is a phrase that is considered by a significant fraction of American society to be inappropriate, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO at the close date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"},...
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1707298241504
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
30
0
https://firebasestorage.…09c-f4be63b106d8
23
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1667774213627}]
["culture-default"]
0.5
1707298241354
1676671560004
0.7817954678051776
h6RC9bUxCXwgo4rU3qha
{"NO": 414.3960733091919, "YES": 78.95741493627006}
1
will-massachusetts-ballot-question
292.0956583551821
Will Massachusetts Ballot Question #1 Pass?
1667908800000
9Bz1g2dwLkQq9jiS0JwoQeJx0Zo1
cpmm-1
0
4.026378930103394
True
play
YES
public
1667765640652
icaricia
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ballot question 1 is a 4% tax on income > $1 million; see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/ele22/information-for-voters-22/quest_1.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sec.stat...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668041429518
130
icaricia
1668034134378
0
https://firebasestorage.…53a-9413d133ccff
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…827-ce1ce34d163e
7
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667774496180}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "9Bz1g2dwLkQq9jiS0JwoQeJx0Zo1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667765641291}, {"name"...
["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-midterms", "massachusetts"]
0.5
1667905201134
1668034131142
0.9495053546556593
0.26079558032302536
5re4VE02MuOjNV1JxEhu
{"NO": 80.27861416715864, "YES": 180.44839638744926}
0.1356641339685834
will-john-forgive-aiden
144
will john forgive aiden
1667865540000
sC4GNjrsBvWqQ0owNxokmKw1pDp1
cpmm-1
0
3.6985601843717237
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667765867502
reegus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "wish we could turn back time to da good ol daaaays ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1702244878226
110
reegusevil
1710208080171
0
https://firebasestorage.…a95-ba4d2e7bbf17
3
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…17b-f2649c8665ce
5
[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]
["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]
0.5
1667861970879
1702244874648
0.14
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.25807858885689816
fPTpVb2QeEy4NGpzYyhr
{"NO": 79.48852388528697, "YES": 187.98531746358432}
0.12822661528744697
will-cobra-kill-himself
141.79705698023324
will cobra kill himself
1667779140000
sC4GNjrsBvWqQ0owNxokmKw1pDp1
cpmm-1
0
3.7309302693936193
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667766353832
reegus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1702615596371
110
reegusevil
1710208088845
0
https://firebasestorage.…a95-ba4d2e7bbf17
4
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…5ba-5cb7deeeacd1
6
[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]
["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]
0.5
1667776150229
1667776158504
0.13
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.7249504073637899
pnwv9Tk0hGDbmKaVurrd
{"NO": 284.7708579669643, "YES": 107.10834194319096}
1
will-proposition-3-pass-in-michigan
206.35270946258353
Will Proposition 3 pass in Michigan amending the Michigan Constitution to establish a broad individual right to “reproductive freedom,” including abortion?
1667969940000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
2.812540109090691
True
play
YES
public
1667766612837
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Abortion is currently legal until fetal viability in MI, but an explicit stat...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668003150545
150
BTE
1668003147152
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
9
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6cd-022e8719d00d
10
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667774447138}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667766613104}, {"name"...
["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1667966343362
1668003146068
0.8751186965568664
0.8035104175699472
ikE2AOZ65dYGWeqQmmv1
{"NO": 359.6790499082773, "YES": 147.51111051743607}
1
will-proposition-1-in-california-pa
183.52411664211053
Will Proposition 1 in California pass amending the California Constitution to prohibit the state from denying or interfering with an individual’s “reproductive freedom,” including abortion?
1667969940000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
2.9392977646703224
True
play
YES
public
1667766793995
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Name:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Proposition 1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://legiscan.com/CA/text/SCA10/2021", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hov...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668003192606
190
BTE
1667966342606
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…b14-c26a25655e91
11
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667774433384}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667766794428}, {"name"...
["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1667966342496
1667766969625
0.9088513072666157