p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.3212960815697107 | 4Hj4Q7i39XLoLZF0Y7nm | {"NO": 65.33773234321066, "YES": 710.2415247283711} | 0 | will-the-book-of-dust-volume-three | 880.4006681176023 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 50} | Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2022? | 1672527540000 | QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 50} | 0 | 3.0836970806712665 | True | play | NO | public | 1645887266569 | ianminds | Previous books were released in October 2017 and October 2019, respectively. Apparently people were expecting the next volume to drop in October 2021. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.11866610316638, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672534467009 | 160 | ianminds | 1686759050358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c | 6 | 1650313793111 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1665750626023}] | ["books"] | 1672334687570 | 1686759047930 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1375836126359572 | DiNVMWMJqM5UGXUatWtm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1375836126359572 | will-i-sell-my-hair-in-march | 411.735902215024 | {"NO": 271.6182035643029, "YES": 102.64589422067306} | Will I sell my hair in March? | 1648785540000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 274, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.7403573980808895 | True | play | NO | public | 1645893683424 | Blazer | It's already been chopped and has been sitting in the living room braided for over a month and a half; I just have to do the actual selling. But that's intimidating and exactly the sort of task I'm bad at. Initial probability set somewhat high to hopefully motivate me.
This market resolves YES if, before 2022/04/01, someone has given me money for at least one braid and it is no longer in my house because it's on its way to them. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 347.5664346035048, "YES": 138.82340205096992} | {"creatorFee": 4.010563911399039, "platformFee": 1.0026409778497598, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648828438602 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1645893683424 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 16 | 1715657794841 | 0 | 1 | 0.1375836126359572 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7677397549150513 | io9FyaZHbJLlSe53oiWX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7677397549150513 | will-masozi-feature-in-any-glowfic | 36 | {"NO": 13, "YES": 23} | Will Masozi feature in any glowfic updates before March 5? | 1646380740000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 13, "YES": 23} | 0 | 5.477936833932487 | True | play | YES | public | 1645896729257 | Em ✨ | I miss my fave problematic baby ma'ar drama uwu
Resolves Yes early if I check scholomance threads with swimmer and see new masozi content. Passing cameos and discussion don't count. Must be posted before I wake up on March 5th. Will resolve N/A in unlikely event it looks like glowfic authors timed their posts to game the market | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 17.350100881551093, "YES": 31.544349738106828} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645967648983 | 100 | hamnox | 1645896729257 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 3 | 1715658560628 | 0 | 0.7677397549150513 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16438857968754378 | Q0yEHuk9BYYbYQZlaigp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.16438857968754378 | is-it-true-that-ukraine-has-shot-do | 5999.291268441908 | {"NO": 2235.6057154387213, "YES": 1073.1030161193712} | Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes? | 1646891940000 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2296, "YES": 998} | 0 | 4.630116855123633 | True | play | NO | public | 1645898856300 | Ophelia | Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian IL-7640 transport planes (see eg https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/two-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-around-kyiv-ukraine-says).
So far I found "US officials" confirming this (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/) but so far I haven't seen any independent confirmations besides that.
After market close on March 9, I'll look for news and have a discussion with traders and friends. After that, if I believe that Ukraine shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes on or before Feb 25, I'll resolve YES, if I'm unsure I'll resolve N/A, and otherwise I'll resolve NO. I won't put in a large amount of effort, so if you want to lower the chance of an N/A, please tell me where the confirmations/disconfirmations are!
(I'll put in a larger amount of effort if this question sees a lot of activity, but I'll still aim to resolve shortly after March 9, rather than wait for more info.)
If the situation is very clear before March 9, I'll resolve this early.
Edge cases I can think of rn:
- If the planes just crashed on their own, it's still YES as long as it happened in Ukrainian airspace
- If the planes were misidentified, I'll resolve YES if the real planes were as big and important as IL-76s.
Feb 26, 9:38pm: @Conner Gagliano, can you tell me where you saw the US Department of Defense confirmed this? The only thing I can find so far is https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2947562/senior-defense-official-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/ which very much does not confirm it.
(To be clear, if the US Department of Defense confirms is, that's not an instant YES, I would first ask around to get a general sense of whether US Department is generally truthful even in situations where false propaganda would be very effective.)
Feb 26, 9:51pm: @ConnerGagliano let's see if I can correctly ping you this time...
Mar 1, 10:32pm: @WillWilson thank you for the tweet!
@ConnerGagliano: Sorry for the delay (I was actually about to answer when Will posted their reply!). The relevant part of the of the AP News page you linked appears to be identical to https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/ , which I linked when I created the question. Just seeing this same piece of information again will not make me resolve YES.
To be clear, I don't think "The US Department of Defense" and " two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine" are equivalent at all. In the press briefing transcript I linked, the DOD official says "On the aircraft, it's - we can't confirm, we can't deny it. And, again, we're going to be careful here about what level of tactical detail that we get into. Because I want to be able to make sure we can do it confidently." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3024.550583780175, "YES": 1341.5117792484098} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646974225289 | 100 | Ophelia | 1645898856300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 48 | 1715658129050 | 0 | 1 | 1646593525555 | 0.16438857968754378 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03583526035782091 | dJ1HgwEvYyBQEWG1EXlv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03583526035782091 | will-the-russian-federation-qualify | 774 | {"NO": 694, "YES": 80} | Will the Russian Federation qualify for the FIFA 2022 World Cup in Qatar by April 5th? | 1646095119310 | qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 694, "YES": 80} | 0 | 4.6776799206847794 | True | play | NO | public | 1645900409654 | Alex Desjardins | The Russian Federation are scheduled to play against Poland in the European qualifier playoffs on March 24, 2022. The winner of that game will compete (on March 29) against either Sweden or the Czech Republic for a spot in the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
Earlier today (February 26th), Sweden and Poland publicly stated that they will not compete against Russia in the European Qualifiers due to Russia's aggression in the Russo-Ukranian war. This might significantly improve Russia's odds of qualifying for the FIFA 2022 World Cup but might also prompt action by FIFA to ban Russia from competing.
If Russia wins both games (or qualifies in some other way), this market will be resolved YES unless an official statement from either FIFA or Russia (released and not retracted by April 5th) would prevent Russia from competing in the FIFA 2022 World Cup or add additional conditions to their qualification.
This market will be effectively resolved on April 6th at 12:00 AM (i.e., I will not consider the effect of any events happening on April 6th or later when resolving this market). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 761.0790944446379, "YES": 140.84090315078927} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646095119310 | 100 | AlexDesjardins | 1645900409654 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwjGzYGd26to92fNpH-ekItGncUD85RFuPuVbM9=s96-c | 3 | 1715658461714 | 0 | 0.03583526035782091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9980540256280954 | OTn2FqqhBrdYmr0f5B2p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9980540256280954 | will-the-7day-average-of-flights-tr | 39045.9343107899 | {"NO": 906.0868379107094, "YES": 135.97885129940119} | Will the 7-day average of flights tracked on flightradar24 for the first week of March, 2022 exceed the 7-day average of flights for the first week of March, 2020? | 1646719140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4, "YES": 862} | 0 | 4.6619645626109545 | True | play | YES | public | 1645902065994 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Resolution resolves to YES/NO.
Feb 27, 6:46am: I am curious about people's rationale for either Yes or No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 45.96889577442799, "YES": 1041.052277929693} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646744935851 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645902065994 | 0 | 13 | 1715658081713 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527902}] | ["science-default"] | 1646712665342 | 0.9980540256280954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8888814818518356 | f2bkjkbjZAcL1KZ9s4sw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8888814818518356 | will-the-nasa-firms-fire-informatio | 15 | {"NO": 2.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will the NASA FIRMS (Fire Information Resource Management System) Map show an active fire within the boundaries of Kiev on, "Day Mode" looking backward at Sat, Feb 26th UTC time? | 1645966800000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 6.056281388568342 | True | play | NO | public | 1645903932938 | Patrick Delaney | https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:advanced;d:2022-02-26;@30.7,50.4,10z
Feb 27, 10:41am: Resolving NO. Just to make sure there are no doubts, there was no fire showing within the boundaries of Kiev on either 26 Feb 2022 or 27 Feb 2022.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:advanced;d:2022-02-27;@30.7,50.4,10z
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:advanced;d:2022-02-26;@30.7,50.4,10z
However, you can see on the 27th that there was fire was shown just outside of the northern western boundary. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.000499999999998, "YES": 14.143019506102648} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645980222348 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645903932938 | 0 | 2 | 1715658497110 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531675}] | ["science-default"] | 0.8888814818518356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR | in-what-month-will-queen-elizabeth | 1855.2308113536217 | In what month will Queen Elizabeth II die? | 1662668873134 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.644633907993505 | True | play | cb63a4ba7422 | public | 1645906058696 | Duncn | Please list responses [month, year], e.g., January 2022.
Close date updated to 2023-10-05 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03707392892736153, "platformFee": 0.009268482231840382, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662668873134 | 1520 | Duncn | 1662658758051 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2c9cbd5d25da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645906058863, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9e47c4acc4b6", "prob": 0.00013896915599634677, "text": "January, 2023", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00022936959324211797, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.6502778353878953, "textFts": "'2023':2 'januari':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645906098092, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.019455681839488547, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c27a40e142c0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "April, 2022", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00010000500037503125, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9999499987499375, "textFts": "'2022':2 'april':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645906115035, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ac2c81e02257", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "March, 2022", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00010000500037503125, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9999499987499375, "textFts": "'2022':2 'march':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916654207, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be6cada074b7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "May, 2022", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916661596, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8500932e816c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "June, 2022", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00018000900067505627, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7999099977498876, "textFts": "'2022':2 'june':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916674016, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "51c55ad552f3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "July, 2022", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'2022':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916684485, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.5", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c79ca426b20f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "August, 2022", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'2022':2 'august':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916696673, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:09.389", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb63a4ba7422", "prob": 0.9947878588845936, "text": "September, 2022", "index": 8, "poolNo": 33.803541466565655, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.1771119608574458, "textFts": "'2022':2 'septemb':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916707783, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:09.398", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4468370426061115, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "639710ded02c", "prob": 0.000904591778996501, "text": "October, 2022", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.008165762192270786, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.018847728168414, "textFts": "'2022':2 'octob':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916722177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.338", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2713775336989503, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cdca44ca7d49", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "November, 2022", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.00018000900067505627, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7999099977498876, "textFts": "'2022':2 'novemb':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916748245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.342", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2c1b7b048cf0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "December, 2022", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.00018000900067505627, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7999099977498876, "textFts": "'2022':2 'decemb':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916760212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.342", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0de0f7d86371", "prob": 0.00014026466101810226, "text": "February, 2023", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.00029903730153266097, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.1316513724603947, "textFts": "'2023':2 'februari':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645916806646, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.342", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.025247638983258408, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a144ab7dfad", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "March, 2023", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'2023':2 'march':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1651157666539, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.343", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c63f8363960b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "April, 2023", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'2023':2 'april':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1651157674182, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.343", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cd1688e27a3e", "prob": 0.0025283155193954387, "text": "After resolution date (Oct 6, 2023)", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.012729068326119784, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.021875287210768, "textFts": "'2023':6 '6':5 'date':3 'oct':4 'resolut':2", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1654181319539, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.339", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2528315519395439, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2e84cc4b5b84", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "May, 2023", "index": 16, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "'2023':2 'may':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1662648150297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.338", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5e2c6b7b7cbc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "June, 2023", "index": 17, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "'2023':2 'june':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1662648169200, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.343", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3c541299f91b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "September, 2023", "index": 18, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "'2023':2 'septemb':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1662648248403, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.38", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e8daed15454b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "August, 2023", "index": 19, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "'2023':2 'august':1", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1662648257196, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.379", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662668873000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 17 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478883}] | ["politics-default"] | 1662658757891 | {"cb63a4ba7422": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016763670487074726 | OmK8lkm8by4ggkptpX4k | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016763670487074726 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-e6cd647fe902 | 4535.248827660046 | {"NO": 4072.0317206522773, "YES": 204.7194516876765} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time? | 1646490484178 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4073, "YES": 183} | 0 | 4.6267424675745925 | True | play | NO | public | 1645914037048 | Daniel Filan | This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post. The media outlet must not retract the claim within 2 hours. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Feb 27, 9:51am: In this description, I meant Pacific Time, not Eastern Time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4240.753635725975, "YES": 553.7307510798273} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006855654600401045, "YES": 0.0007280109889280518} | 0 | 1646490484178 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1645914037048 | 0 | 52 | 1715658091768 | 0 | 1646323530490 | 0.016763670487074726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19425521488708447 | aryOqMgsnTs9Yp3ojDq4 | {"NO": 138.8795937663351, "YES": 737.8700326131652} | 0 | will-a-nonukrainian-military-engage | 1251.6739020280409 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 125.97066875188426} | Will a non-Ukrainian military engage Russia in 2022? | 1672473540000 | clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 127} | 0 | 2.949693932730016 | True | play | NO | public | 1645917856397 | Raven Kopelman | Resolves YES if any non-Ukrainian military (or spy agency, or any official government agency) fights with Russia, anywhere, before the end of 2022 (Moscow time). NO otherwise.
Mar 5, 1:29am: Cyber attacks would count, regardless of casualties. YES does not require an official declaration of war. Unsure about "unintentional combat damage". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 209.8056096121729, "YES": 191.36748634236275} | {"creatorFee": 0.04537393525215748, "platformFee": 0.01134348381303937, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672549782477 | 220 | RavenKopelman | 1672464110688 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg55dHNRTFGTLkKUIqZ8LYwnKDlljtkFxJmMgu4iA=s96-c | 28 | 1650314660876 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662319135224}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225078}] | ["wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672464110499 | 1648711189732 | False | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC | i-bethany-am-accepting-m100-from-da | 111 | I, Bethany, am accepting M$100 from Danny to settle a personal debt. | 1646553540000 | Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.985601068603796 | True | play | c172ade05d1b | public | 1645918070601 | bethany soule | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645918265142 | 260 | bethanysoule | 1645918070601 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixuivUBh-0LMt0Ru5lFvmIXQ8DKcqaleSxPGjchA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f3943380f24f", "prob": 0.008116224332440547, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12725731601606377, "userId": "Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.552116590323159, "textFts": "", "contractId": "P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC", "createdTime": 1645918070794, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.636", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645918265000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4068122176230282, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2c80b5412f3", "prob": 0.9739469198928659, "text": "I, Danny, am herewith paying M$100 to Bethany", "index": 1, "poolNo": 27.61081782833855, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7385893769080557, "textFts": "'100':7 'bethani':9 'danni':2 'herewith':4 'm':6 'pay':5", "contractId": "P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC", "createdTime": 1645918175099, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.631", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645918265000, "totalLiquidity": 4.515867218569918, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c172ade05d1b", "prob": 0.017936855774693613, "text": "Thank you, Danny! I herewith accept your M$100", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.42017659439337196, "userId": "Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.005143855926697, "textFts": "'100':9 'accept':6 'danni':3 'herewith':5 'm':8 'thank':1", "contractId": "P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC", "createdTime": 1645918252510, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.636", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645918265000, "totalLiquidity": 3.109055000946893, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"c172ade05d1b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW | what-specific-new-measures-will-cou | 164.89604322804172 | What specific new measures will countries impose to prevent mass casualty attacks in Ukraine? | 1646582340000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.903464189827921 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645924634590 | p_journal | There have been chilling reports of Russian forces considering thermobaric weapons or trying to destroy large dams that would kill millions of civilians. This question is designed to generate new ideas to deter such escalations of the conflict. Please raise new suggestions. If something would work, maybe it would be pursued.
It may be that the best possible idea is not pursued by Western governments because of policy paralysis.
If countries impose no new measures designed to prevent this particular outcome, I will resolve in favor of the best idea generated here, graded on likelihood of influence, while considering constraints on direct involvement of NATO forces.
Feb 27, 5:37pm: Not sure how to resolve if NATO does none, or 2-3, or one but doesn't tie it to MCEs. Mostly I want to find some way to reward participation here. Maybe resolve to "PROB," but if volume stays low that wouldn't really reward the few people who joined last.
Mar 8, 6:16pm: Imprecision makes this difficult to resolve. The most effort from global partners was focused on trade restrictions, humanitarian relief, and weapons shipments, so arguably "embargo" is the best answer. Another argument could be made that no responses were tied to this specific tactic, or that the embargo wasn't sufficiently "full," so arguably "no action" is the best answer.
Arguments in favor of the other options are more strained, so I resolved multiple for the two answers with the best arguments, even though they appear somewhat contradictory. This was the most fair way I could determine resolution. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646734696481 | 679.9999999999999 | p_journal | 1645924634590 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "09dc97abff08", "prob": 0.4498022909200159, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.781775460172845, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.20583874540005, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924634868, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 31.83216212664728, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8a1dab4fc5c3", "prob": 0.018801735760456663, "text": "Openly declare seizure of embassies on the table in response to any mass casualty events.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.1841887101688955, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.612178631418605, "textFts": "'casualti':14 'declar':2 'embassi':5 'event':15 'mass':13 'open':1 'respons':10 'seizur':3 'tabl':8", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924725781, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 1.3305843768938563, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "868d240a98b2", "prob": 0.029102208222525027, "text": "Threaten no fly zone in response to MCE.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.5581119206869063, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.61953660754159, "textFts": "'fli':3 'mce':8 'respons':6 'threaten':1 'zone':4", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924776289, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.8", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 3.22362921849508, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3f939e66062e", "prob": 0.009220946963860326, "text": "Threaten to take action against Russian interests in Syria after any MCE.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.09853579340110186, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.58754599269889, "textFts": "'action':4 'interest':7 'mce':12 'russian':6 'syria':9 'take':3 'threaten':1", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924830197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0213972021506823, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9b482044ad8d", "prob": 0.009310907422044329, "text": "Threaten to blockade Kaliningrad.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.06387983667053879, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.79687323228363, "textFts": "'blockad':3 'kaliningrad':4 'threaten':1", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924858189, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6589257560215986, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "54a923e0e59f", "prob": 0.009400867880228333, "text": "Advocate requiring successor states to receive UNGA approval to retain seats. (Take Russian removal from UNSC more seriously.)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.10144300180083814, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.689369409699006, "textFts": "'advoc':1 'approv':8 'receiv':6 'remov':14 'requir':2 'retain':10 'russian':13 'seat':11 'serious':18 'state':4 'successor':3 'take':12 'unga':7 'unsc':16", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924972629, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0413269036560615, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7bef19681cfa", "prob": 0.029552010513445044, "text": "Detain oligarchs.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.5712333522300908, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.758529405204005, "textFts": "'detain':1 'oligarch':2", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645925009095, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 3.2734534722585282, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d199b1fdbf39", "prob": 0.04156173168100947, "text": "Sponsor defections.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.9586885010521162, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.107927404419492, "textFts": "'defect':2 'sponsor':1", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645925069076, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 4.603761047742587, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "df2f0ceab3e2", "prob": 0.02069090538232073, "text": "Threaten new fast track NATO process for new members.", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.3331413091142673, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.76771570794593, "textFts": "'fast':3 'member':9 'nato':5 'new':2,8 'process':6 'threaten':1 'track':4", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645933016091, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 2.291915673118604, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52c5e8b8e6a5", "prob": 0.010210512003884361, "text": "Offer troop drawdowns in EU, maybe Germany.", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.07339125881671522, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.114422514752637, "textFts": "'drawdown':3 'eu':5 'germani':7 'mayb':6 'offer':1 'troop':2", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645933046558, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7225900802748934, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f0a8d0fa84e4", "prob": 0.304856835614534, "text": "Encourage documentation of war crimes.", "index": 10, "poolNo": 38.513687864271674, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.8199985253916, "textFts": "'crime':5 'document':2 'encourag':1 'war':4", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645933606116, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 58.15730402492649, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5307c1e2d551", "prob": 0.04462038725926558, "text": "Full trade embargo.", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.6824274586604706, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.611645510613508, "textFts": "'embargo':3 'full':1 'trade':2", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645940962834, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.803", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 3.15775048296341, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c79314c878a8", "prob": 0.022868660376410197, "text": "No significant new action that was not taken already", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.5274694788035773, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.537697877815177, "textFts": "'action':4 'alreadi':9 'new':3 'signific':2 'taken':8", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1646527011131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646734696000, "totalLiquidity": 3.447890333674153, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1645933243247 | {"5307c1e2d551": 66.11500505998923, "c79314c878a8": 33.88499494001078} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9945005922962078 | 6BRnw7qoVf4FL5nVE4Iw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9945005922962078 | will-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-con | 2316.1812349749844 | {"NO": 78.8, "YES": 1495.0318829475355} | Will the Ukrainian armed forces control >60,000 km^2 of Ukrainian territory on 26 March 2022? | 1648339140000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 78.8, "YES": 1505.2} | 0 | 4.646386098594736 | True | play | YES | public | 1645934571034 | Pontifex Minimus | This market resolves to YES if on 23:59 of 26 March 2022, the Ukrainian armed forces control at least 60,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory. I will use maps from Wikipedia in adjudicating the result. See https://pontifex.substack.com/p/ukraine-might-win for background and discussion. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 116.71228556111822, "YES": 1569.4993424165716} | {"creatorFee": 3.590248664964169, "platformFee": 0.8975621662410422, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648357219211 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1645934571034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 19 | 1715657255107 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470411}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226461}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645951655851 | False | 0.9945005922962078 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.028709109129490946 | 6ACImkljaHVI2fyiBYCX | {"NO": 96.55058775350764, "YES": 370.97048272585727} | 0 | will-russia-attack-a-nato-country-b | 1850.7840910719303 | {"NO": 1345.5529662419456, "YES": 74.66294268612421} | Will Russia attack a NATO country before May 2022? | 1651381140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1346, "YES": 75} | 0 | 10.406499308254496 | True | play | NO | public | 1645939225530 | SG | An "attack" is an intentional military strike that results in at least 5 fatalities (of NATO civilians or military officials) or property damage equivalent to $100M USD or more (of NATO property within NATO territory). E.g. Shooting down a single fighter jet over NATO territory probably would not count, but bombing a Polish airport—even if there are no casualties—probably would. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1399.6608877243254, "YES": 240.76018728177385} | {"creatorFee": 0.20846728773372247, "platformFee": 0.03735818486205448, "liquidityFee": 0.1771036448565137} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 1651423026591 | 100.17710364485652 | SG | 1645939225530 | 0 | 40 | 1650255268308 | 0 | 1 | 1646021257927 | 0.007634099215971578 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01579458262688544 | 3HaXrwh32csXgEfls30g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01579458262688544 | will-russia-stop-delivering-gas-to | 212.73936617634308 | {"NO": 149.94673743161997, "YES": 5.313896392036932} | Will Russia stop delivering gas to Germany before Tuesday? | 1646155584642 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150.6, "YES": 5.4} | 0 | 4.893512047917794 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966493887 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.03060723674818, "YES": 19.51273870757104} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646155584642 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966493887 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 9 | 1715656939173 | 0 | 0.01579458262688544 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.00780495658882176 | cjAsRWXoBwTD8b241U0F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.00780495658882176 | will-russia-have-conquered-kiev-bef | 916.9709150378881 | {"NO": 753.2851896456423, "YES": 31.74389531646971} | Will Russia have conquered Kiev before Thursday? | 1646291475986 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 757.6, "YES": 31.4} | 0 | 4.676828115201716 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966600001 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 781.9605209088544, "YES": 69.35400518768552} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646291475986 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966600001 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 22 | 1715658449850 | 0 | 1646133639702 | 0.00780495658882176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.025356275634471757 | HYVjfKxNrHlVV4FHw5VL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.025356275634471757 | will-there-be-large-scale-blackouts | 157 | {"NO": 149.6, "YES": 7.4} | Will there be large scale blackouts in at least 3 German federal states before April? | 1648799227388 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 149.6, "YES": 7.4} | 0 | 4.890824868325627 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966679209 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.99773934154652, "YES": 25.000295998447697} | {"creatorFee": 0.2959999999999998, "platformFee": 0.07399999999999995, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1648799227388 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966679209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 5 | 1715657885677 | 0 | 0.025356275634471757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022268103902207712 | 7ExZZVIV4jVFIpQVOtjI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.022268103902207712 | will-the-german-army-conduct-nontra | 66 | {"NO": 64.6, "YES": 1.4} | Will the German army conduct non-training, non-logistics operations inside a German city before April? | 1646607540000 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 64.6, "YES": 1.4} | 0 | 5.175803388358432 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966992093 | Emanuel Rylke | Mar 7, 6:11am: whoops that closed earlier than I wanted, I guess I can still wait until March ends before I resolve. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 65.26200426733767, "YES": 9.84899994974109} | {"creatorFee": 0.05599999999999991, "platformFee": 0.013999999999999978, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1648799182771 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966992093 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 4 | 1715657620806 | 0 | 1 | 0.022268103902207712 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03419538481675645 | s1wRqdP2HN0nTiO6MT2H | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03419538481675645 | will-russia-decide-to-stop-deliveri | 2087.052451190412 | {"NO": 1684.265759943948, "YES": 191.97702524356782} | Will Russia decide to stop delivering gas to Europe before the end of March? | 1648785540000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1690, "YES": 195} | 0 | 4.641413690980771 | True | play | NO | public | 1645973799151 | Gabrielle | A longer term version of https://manifold.markets/EmanuelRylke/will-russia-stop-delivering-gas-to
Only resolves YES if Russia decides to stop the gas, not if the gas stops flowing because of sanctions or because Russian banks are unable to receive payment. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1843.8853122913772, "YES": 346.9548912624105} | {"creatorFee": 7.47790195238354, "platformFee": 1.869475488095885, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648791355555 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1645973799151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 30 | 1715658778085 | 0 | 1 | 1648470615054 | 0.03419538481675645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0033971675563913813 | cdz6A60TEPGZLmNgJa7L | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0033971675563913813 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-f25f932e828a | 6878.600287579395 | {"NO": 5694.084546899789, "YES": 181.31516552081666} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th Eastern Time? | 1647748800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5707, "YES": 129} | 0 | 4.623593850251217 | True | play | NO | public | 1645984161953 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post.
The media outlet must not retract the claim within 2 hours. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5865.4123618381245, "YES": 342.44905768459046} | {"creatorFee": 6.98509445695529, "platformFee": 1.7462736142388224, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647755013889 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645984161953 | 0 | 53 | 1715658435902 | 0 | 1 | 1647720447882 | 0.0033971675563913813 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024414733887138326 | ReNNcDercJEIdgpYMJ4a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.024414733887138326 | will-the-atlanta-braves-sign-freddi | 180 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will the Atlanta Braves sign Freddie Freeman to a new contract before the start of the 2022 MLB regular season? | 1647536942523 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.886310747465981 | True | play | NO | public | 1645984760574 | BCG |
Close date updated to 2022-10-06 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-06 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 158.03573963110372, "YES": 25.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0.5, "platformFee": 0.125, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1647536942523 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1645984760574 | 0 | 3 | 1715658177444 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402330}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.024414733887138326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33693958401656177 | THzFYFaRMkabkB3OKwTU | {"NO": 967.4481134449492, "YES": 1050.0504626419204} | 0.3188863997179967 | will-13butanediol-significantly-ext | 235.7931214409085 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1957103940000 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 9.59574966954016 | False | basic | public | 1645985026190 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.9994204810513931, "platformFee": 0.21291175918776634, "liquidityFee": 0.9438104662363521} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | KamilPabis | 1713847523349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 2 | 10 | 1650314603529 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810795}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528560}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214761906}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681609693997}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve", "ancient-markets"] | 1713847519790 | 1670214757796 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33394326234231864 | euDnxHq7tqAX92jhLHeg | {"NO": 968.7573314681773, "YES": 1048.7377004110854} | 0.3165370537943266 | will-captopril-significantly-extend | 82 | {"NO": 5.000000000000002, "YES": 5} | Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1957103940000 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 9.592376125786892 | False | basic | public | 1645985423985 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 1.0819710762119432, "platformFee": 0.18032851270199055, "liquidityFee": 1.0819710762119432} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | KamilPabis | 1680900132837 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 10 | 1650314694405 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531612}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214769283}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733671127}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve", "ancient-markets"] | 1664399807336 | 1680900129614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41247097290167867 | olqhuGmALYCLpZ3hYEcr | {"NO": 77.34197269194982, "YES": 149.74615798768838} | 0 | will-lleucine-significantly-extend | 72.80915229391007 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5} | Will L-Leucine significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601991970 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.882483644503211 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985537603 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.42686184175343, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.7852907247686487, "platformFee": 0.13088178746144147, "liquidityFee": 0.7852907247686487} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601991970 | 100.78529072476864 | KamilPabis | 1670214726933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 7 | 1650314760316 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533965}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214703669}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1667246380121 | 1670214723586 | 0.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31540296994257305 | piyhXzjCHG5FOsiEapmy | {"NO": 114.84248548631201, "YES": 129.53696030193856} | 0 | will-pb125-significantly-extend-the | 267.29202199267155 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 5} | Will PB125 significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601698324 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.8215229535545583 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985605993 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.696081708607863, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.37874900445338844, "platformFee": 0.06312483407556474, "liquidityFee": 0.37874900445338844} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601698324 | 120.37874900445338 | KamilPabis | 1672147903467 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 8 | 1650314767461 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534392}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214669033}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1672147903356 | 1670214680783 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4978510985235951 | WzC4KUtvOwjMKHEMUH1Z | {"NO": 65.83675158746382, "YES": 159.80193595600576} | 0 | will-sulindac-significantly-extend | 77.97942637818676 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will Sulindac significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601898934 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.823435804736434 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985718469 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 1.1883842639648818, "platformFee": 0.198064043994147, "liquidityFee": 1.1883842639648818} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601898934 | 101.18838426396488 | KamilPabis | 1670214660361 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 4 | 1650314626705 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810801}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529527}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214644554}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1667245294419 | 1670214657397 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02286916459933516 | 3CcQ9YcjohwOwybZQU2T | {"NO": 95.8909277456466, "YES": 600.609109913355} | 0 | will-russia-invade-poland-before-th | 1466.9721271505252 | {"NO": 915.2659430959299, "YES": 45.62754685608411} | Will Russia invade Poland before the end of June 2022? | 1656645142892 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 920.5, "YES": 45.5} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985728814 | BCG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 949.8435157701713, "YES": 145.31179019439918} | {"creatorFee": 0.16973820607256584, "platformFee": 0.04243455151814146, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1656645142892 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1656644634386 | 0 | 30 | 1650313786293 | 0 | 1654981764558 | 1656644632507 | 0.003722745969118866 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43083315539164707 | yXsAOWUqprTfy1TlKlhY | {"NO": 89.26063805206795, "YES": 165.42070295265765} | 0 | will-syringaresinol-significantly-e | 298.81635062161735 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will Syringaresinol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601964472 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.575174789506256 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985778213 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.9438104662363521, "platformFee": 0.15730174437272537, "liquidityFee": 0.9438104662363521} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601964472 | 120.94381046623634 | KamilPabis | 1672147896738 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 7 | 1650315041441 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536863}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214623689}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1672147893223 | 1670214618256 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6374113422103571 | 1hV7iC9dauUXDfCuZzGX | {"NO": 196.89266909324482, "YES": 86.53167837844714} | 1 | will-phase-ii-rapamycinacarbose-sig | 412.67154420489845 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 16} | Will Phase II - Rapamycin/Acarbose significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601920986 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 16} | 0 | 2.7626959107250473 | True | play | YES | public | 1645985840200 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”.
So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment.
See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.882535369428375, "YES": 19.774529084152675} | {"creatorFee": 1.0972538911667509, "platformFee": 0.10438677143550282, "liquidityFee": 0.6263206286130168} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601920986 | 120.62632062861302 | KamilPabis | 1672147914452 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 1650313773818 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1668684729705}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1663089951792}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529521812}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670214592783}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "health", "longevity", "please-resolve"] | 1672147913304 | 1667823599631 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012026475184395789 | t9qwxiZjJQ4qu0R4UqMS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.012026475184395789 | will-the-current-russiaukraine-peac | 4227.066578361337 | {"NO": 3884.5760113084325, "YES": 130.35741033023015} | Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in peace? | 1646456340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3885, "YES": 120} | 0 | 4.627495581716269 | True | play | NO | public | 1645992366072 | Gabrielle | Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in ending the war? Resolves YES liberally - if the war has ended within five days after the peace talks end, with even some media recognition that the peace talks contributed to the war ending, then will resolve as YES.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/
Mar 2, 4:38pm: the talks ended on Feb 28, so will resolve on March 4
Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3990.7186391864902, "YES": 440.2989358475883} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1646487179079 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1645992366072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 39 | 1715658803791 | 0 | 1 | 1646240979186 | 0.012026475184395789 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03604179696601919 | PA9baZofXHsOISfJSpj7 | {"NO": 148.05035274574803, "YES": 1144.7520251191202} | 0 | will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc | 5471.832099562069 | {"NO": 1989.1612418041611, "YES": 85.30563383333993} | Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022? | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1990, "YES": 74} | 0 | 8.220493439406258 | True | play | NO | public | 1645993857084 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's not fair that there are/were so many markets about Russians entering Kyiv, but none about Ukrainians entering Moscow. Now there is. See also: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2032.0201856101503, "YES": 417.50560753701694} | {"creatorFee": 0.7922373246762929, "platformFee": 0.12974523212050554, "liquidityFee": 0.6826196389049319} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672604932948 | 160.68261963890492 | Jenny | 1671680324584 | 0 | 54 | 1650312096262 | 0 | 1 | 52 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664306246536}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664306242732}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662774022144}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662774019831}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224372}] | ["wars", "world-default", "ukraine", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671680324428 | 1664415455687 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13565438899182 | hkGooKHjE1T07UDFojAU | {"NO": 196.02017944263298, "YES": 397.4816119931567} | 0.07183795540776092 | conditional-of-a-nuclear-war-in-202 | 973.8187482836397 | {"NO": 195.6318373656452, "YES": 59} | Conditional on a nuclear war in 2022, will Manifold allow traders to exchange M$ for bottlecaps | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 197, "YES": 59} | 0 | 3.2983079094880052 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645994774542 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if there is no nuclear war in 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if there is a nuclear war, and on Dec 31 I can exchange my M$ for bottlecaps.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if there is a nuclear war, but on Dec 31 I can't exchange my M$ for bottlecaps.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 227.17999514311487, "YES": 115.0092677641826} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672607548645 | 220.01352381289453 | Jenny | 1672075463958 | 0 | 31 | 1650314718021 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125148}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663104539153}] | ["nuclear-risk", "fun"] | 1672075463767 | 1666632253075 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0512856466243735 | Co048SXT8rsBoeVkJMWf | {"NO": 2052.3262174146057, "YES": 15838.380842678416} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i | 91007.98708664431 | {"NO": 7480.121385914316, "YES": 797.1388811284141} | Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? | 1672560000000 | a2ZMgkoSxoW9PH90sLFiP6y6qy32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7488, "YES": 811} | 0 | 0.9342880405018592 | True | basic | NO | public | 1645998906505 | Eric Jang | Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7850.720649872288, "YES": 2622.830410178032} | {"creatorFee": 34.915988997450036, "platformFee": 3.540523573669896, "liquidityFee": 19.269423267339175} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1672992873543 | 2280.4072387225924 | EricJang | 1672705715442 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx2InKhVMU6Ww6eTGrwheYzGHXU4BCwlkQhe-aMA=s96-c | 0 | 349 | 1650313849032 | 0 | 2 | 304 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663794516105}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663794483765}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664837555949}] | ["global-macro", "world-default", "wars", "nuclear-risk"] | 1672496699045 | 1672705710592 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.948827091387128 | 8cxRazmWDmGRJoZf7Y1G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.948827091387128 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-66604d80c26f | 21863.84122248138 | {"NO": 1717.3232106581281, "YES": 5898.835566860495} | Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 50% for at least 12 hours? | 1646428257163 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 798, "YES": 6454} | 0 | 4.621663621329006 | True | play | YES | public | 1646005669062 | Jenny | This market runs in 2 stages. When you complete a stage, you go to the next stage. When you complete the last stage, the market resolves to YES. If the time runs out, the market resolves NO
1. The probability must stay below 24.5% for a total of 12 hours.
2. The probability must stay at or above 50.5% for a total of 12 hours.
This is almost an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed, which I accidentally resolved early. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1663.866354162863, "YES": 7432.189348514829} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646428257163 | 100 | Jenny | 1646005669062 | 0 | 19 | 1715657647617 | 0 | 1646410190182 | 0.948827091387128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6015693356628494 | yBm13EA2BDmuxfS5PvKs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6015693356628494 | will-i-see-858b-again-this-week | 18 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 10.500000000000002} | Will I see 858b... again this week? | 1646433584174 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 10.5} | 0 | 6.008916516853325 | True | play | YES | public | 1646012108697 | Austin | Full hash: 858bb193218bd2a87f31fee365dcdf9dfc55f4e2d76e39a3b050cff63b2f20ad | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 10.100049517205347, "YES": 12.41051976147655} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646433584174 | 100 | Austin | 1646012108697 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 3 | 1715658941450 | 0 | 0.6015693356628494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | cSlnK4jXJ2ZTz7FrbHKi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | how-many-messages-will-i-exchange-w | 27 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 8} | How many messages will I exchange with 858b... this week? | 1646639940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 8} | 0 | 5.651188988695374 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646012202614 | Austin | Full hash: 858bb193218bd2a87f31fee365dcdf9dfc55f4e2d76e39a3b050cff63b2f20ad
Each 1% corresponds to 1 message | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.959090147582817, "YES": 12.450542168917787} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646675858993 | 100 | Austin | 1646012202614 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 2 | 1715658430576 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01842968222570273 | JeTB4CeuYeuLdW805U3h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-united-states-federal-gove | 1149.289209707242 | {"NO": 627.8492447657432, "YES": 26.861545527014904} | Will the United States Federal Government freeze bank accounts related to the upcoming Washington, D.C. trucker protester similar to how it happened in Canada this year? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 629.9, "YES": 28.1} | 0 | 9.974657462586222 | True | play | NO | public | 1646012492133 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-02-27/u-s-capitol-barricades-return-as-truckers-head-to-washington
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 648.6506691695118, "YES": 88.88103135254994} | {"creatorFee": 0.02355805787452482, "platformFee": 0.005889514468631205, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1650905650718 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646012492133 | 0 | 16 | 1650313897489 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481397}] | ["politics-default"] | 1650905692182 | 0.01842968222570273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7596608605757665 | YSRHuBjCDgfC88FFCPaj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17 | what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-rus | 225.03446973606617 | {"NO": 43.08830548860118, "YES": 161.87722477533265} | What will 4x the Brier score on #RussiaUkraine questions be on Feb 1st, 2023? | 1676677110545 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 43, "YES": 162} | 3.796480802254971 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646014258689 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will run an API call to get all yes/no markets tagged RussiaUkraine that have been resolved by that date. I will look at the probability assigned by each market at time half-way between creation and end of trading (closing time or resolution time, whichever is sooner), and find the Brier score - the probability assigned, minus the 'true' probability (0 or 1, depending on whether or not the outcome happened), squared. I will then take the average over markets and multiply it by 4, to get a value which we'll call x. I will then resolve the market as PROB, with value x*100% if x < 1, or as YES if x >= 1. Note that if every prediction were 50/50, the average Brier score would be 0.25. Therefore, assuming that Manifold is better than a coin-toss, the market price on this question should track the expected Brier score on these questions.
For reference, if all predictions were 80% or 20% and were calibrated, the average Brier score would be 0.8 * 0.2**2 + 0.2 * 0.8**2 = 0.16, and this question would resolve at 64%.
Feb 27, 9:11pm: See the corresponding market for Metaculus: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-met
Re: timing, I will restrict to markets that have resolved before 00:00 am Pacific Time on February 1st.
Feb 27, 9:41pm: See also: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-manifold-markets-have-a-better-da870f722a8f | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100.48360327753034, "YES": 178.6458059983497} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1676679977187 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1676679960003 | 0 | 9 | 1650314639263 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1664398912261 | 1676679957684 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.619834861004986 | JXiThATXnt8oyvN65rR4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.24 | what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-met | 220.08690368107318 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 140} | What will 4x the Brier score on Metaculus Ukraine questions be on Feb 1st, 2023? | 1675227540000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 140} | 2.941556354076303 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646014608593 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will use Metaculus' track record page (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/) to evaluate the Brier score of the Metaculus prediction on all questions with category "Ukraine", where the score is on predictions that are averaged over the life of each question (i.e. choosing the "all times" option for when to evaluate). The Brier score of a prediction is the probability assigned, minus the 'true' probability (0 or 1, depending on whether or not the outcome happened), squared. I will multiply the resulting number by 4 to get a value which I'll call x, and evaluate this market as PROB, with value x * 100% if x < 1, or YES if x >= 1. Note that if every prediction were 50/50, the average Brier score would be 0.25. Therefore, assuming that Metaculus is better than a coin-toss, the market price on this question should track the expected Brier score on these questions.
For reference, if all predictions were 80% or 20% and were calibrated, the average Brier score would be 0.8 * 0.2**2 + 0.2 * 0.8**2 = 0.16, and this question would resolve at 64%.
See also the analogous market for Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-rus
Feb 27, 9:16pm: "February 1st" means Pacific Time, and I will try to ensure that only questions that resolve before midnight that morning are counted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.6471894305223, "YES": 173.20588904711065} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1676151695624 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1676151658641 | 0 | 3 | 1650313896482 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1667245257174 | 1676151655226 | 0.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014186804528330649 | PgqxbS4vsNll4MdHrvHq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014186804528330649 | will-there-be-a-ceasefire-agreement | 3555.179920349161 | {"NO": 2920.153292458692, "YES": 256.66678719214747} | Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine? | 1647662340000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2942, "YES": 251} | 0 | 4.630734508871411 | True | play | NO | public | 1646015281265 | Charles Vorbach | This market resolves to YES if there is a ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine which ends large scale fighting before March 18th.
Otherwise it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3154.2061147784543, "YES": 378.3859902376526} | {"creatorFee": 9.552184055435804, "platformFee": 2.388046013858951, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791694828 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1646015281265 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 29 | 1715658122734 | 0 | 1 | 0.014186804528330649 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6714966791207926 | iEsU5OFW2bFvEIYxxfwx | {"NO": 142.18097710776084, "YES": 85.56642684827747} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-have-a-better-da870f722a8f | 341.54444625312556 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 110.04868514731848} | Will Manifold markets have a better log score on #RussiaUkraine questions than a 65/35 oracle by Feb 1st 2023? | 1675227540000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 110} | 3.1496361911158504 | True | play | YES | public | 1646016015286 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will run an API call to get all yes/no markets tagged RussiaUkraine that have been resolved by that date (Pacific Time). I will look at the probability assigned by each market at time half-way between creation and end of trading (closing time or resolution time, whichever is sooner), and find the log score - that is, the binary logarithm of the probability the market put on the outcome that ended up happening. I will then take the average of this over all markets.
If all market prices were set by an oracle that receives a vision of the right answer, but the visions are only right 65% of the time (so the prices were all 65% or 35%), the average log score would be 0.65 * log_2 (0.65) + 0.35 * log_2 (0.35) = -0.934. This market resolves YES if Manifold's average is higher than that, and NO if Manifold's average is lower than that.
See also: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-rus | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.560108773156, "YES": 145.0246024533401} | {"creatorFee": 0.6213465507789797, "platformFee": 0.09632003479463402, "liquidityFee": 0.5495907879391322} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1676168011281 | 100.54959078793914 | DanielFilan | 1676168156863 | 0 | 11 | 1650314721783 | 0 | 3 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092119514}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1667245340317 | 1676168154395 | 0.77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7029730147787873 | 2Xs695aq7huotOsrV86S | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-i-get-into-anki-by-the-end-of | 93.26009743043208 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 52.73990256956792} | Will I get into Anki by the end of the year? | 1646629140000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 53} | 0 | 3.3196393187903706 | True | play | NO | public | 1646018117806 | Nuño Sempere | This markets resolves according whether I get into Anki by the end of the year. I am thinking | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 48.36395352429328, "YES": 74.40346623888934} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672530780143 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1672530775517 | 0 | 10 | 1650313780738 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1672530812930 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.748550140262391 | H7DTbxBG15OWpTaXZAmJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-someone-create-a-micronukes-ca | 47.92875778349449 | {"NO": 14, "YES": 32.07124221650551} | Will someone create a micro-nukes calculator by the end of the year? | 1646629140000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14, "YES": 32} | 0 | 3.6825882851282956 | True | play | YES | public | 1646018255624 | Nuño Sempere | Some people in my friends circle are getting quite alarmed, and they seem to be overreacting. But maybe they're right! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.102822828932727, "YES": 39.86114750218937} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672531102987 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1672531101547 | 0 | 7 | 1650313878829 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666827564040}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 1672531139284 | 0.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09865054965204546 | IN5Hby4frN4dJY8kbO5K | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09865054965204546 | will-russia-formally-turn-off-natur | 1040.295634282382 | {"NO": 739.2615042122937, "YES": 162.44286150532434} | Will Russia formally turn off natural gas exports to a European country by April 1st 2022? | 1648791795677 | moJoUWvqlOQd9JCHqard2uULBF43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 740, "YES": 151} | 0 | 4.669059076332905 | True | play | NO | public | 1646021370599 | LateNightCharlie | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 856.073893402556, "YES": 283.21379839007193} | {"creatorFee": 6.497714460212973, "platformFee": 1.6244286150532432, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791795677 | 100 | LateNightCharlie | 1646021370599 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZ1MBg2FF6Lx_56GyWJoukwEirhkqWr9DlxgY1lg=s96-c | 21 | 1715657905580 | 0 | 1647276798911 | 0.09865054965204546 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014761678245459315 | Wcrb7CnXS5ZhI3O9LJfF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014761678245459315 | will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-by-apr | 9539.832431267474 | {"NO": 5949.045078884831, "YES": 224.68741380137817} | Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022? | 1648791765001 | moJoUWvqlOQd9JCHqard2uULBF43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5961, "YES": 184} | 0 | 4.623186073835319 | True | play | NO | public | 1646021530437 | LateNightCharlie | Resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a test, in combat, or for another purpose. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6128.293691747766, "YES": 747.6641401056738} | {"creatorFee": 8.93026861782201, "platformFee": 2.2325671544555026, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791765001 | 100 | LateNightCharlie | 1646021530437 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZ1MBg2FF6Lx_56GyWJoukwEirhkqWr9DlxgY1lg=s96-c | 82 | 1715658272145 | 0 | 1646569272267 | 0.014761678245459315 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | TjnKAVp4x8aeXKk9gJxM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | on-march-1st-the-politics-community | 100 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | On March 1st, the Politics community will have the most followers. | 1646110800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646023572492 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the Manifold Markets 'Politics' community has more subscribers than the Manifold Markets 'Science' community at 12:00am ET on March 1st, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 77.46044152081758} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646023642280 | 100 | Athena | 1646023572492 | 0 | 1 | 1715658212806 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488420}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866776}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | False | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1023055869137181 | QeZrxCw5TM6QTqAkHoiu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1023055869137181 | will-the-sp-500-close-2-or-more-on | 1111.7353462290757 | {"NO": 580.2646537709244, "YES": 130} | Will the S&P 500 close +/- 2% or more on February 28th, 2022? | 1646078400000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 600, "YES": 130} | 0 | 4.683103107579477 | True | play | NO | public | 1646023813756 | Athena | This market resolves to "YES" if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 2% or more from its February 25th closing price at 4 PM ET on February 28th, 2022. Price will be checked via Google Finance. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 672.9535294322347, "YES": 227.18020633703318} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196824052 | 100 | Athena | 1646023813756 | 0 | 11 | 1715658152803 | 0 | 1 | 1646074677649 | 0.1023055869137181 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010266119713042657 | LsnoNdSnFvCxbWMcHrqf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010266119713042657 | will-at-least-one-nuclear-strike-hi | 18055.24005986186 | {"NO": 8076.536315431309, "YES": 410.049285535305} | Will at least one nuclear strike hit a city with 100000+ population in February or March 2022? | 1648828853236 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8188, "YES": 410} | 0 | 4.620994534119378 | True | play | NO | public | 1646024285915 | JuJumper | It will be quite clear whether this happened or not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8442.912062783189, "YES": 859.8767561785403} | {"creatorFee": 14.498900056009985, "platformFee": 3.6247250140024962, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648828853236 | 100 | JuJumper | 1646024285915 | 0 | 67 | 1715657996481 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482663}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647470194466 | 0.010266119713042657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | XoDQMOObxfJckNBChIQX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-it-be-possible-to-see-result-o | 100 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | Will it be possible to see result of own past trades on Manifold by 2022-05-01? | 1648850340000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646024931797 | Account deletion requested | Logged in user can see history of action which changed their balance.
I think that cancelling before anyone else appeared is fine? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.46044152081758, "YES": 63.24618565889963} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646027629072 | 100 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1646024931797 | 0 | 1 | 1715658303885 | 0 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7793669801547494 | uN2qWicYgGqcwxUyJ4dd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7793669801547494 | by-20220401-manifold-representative | 188.2894535670246 | {"NO": 17.037913230936194, "YES": 50.672633202039236} | By 2022-04-01 Manifold representative will admit that reward function used as of 2022-02-28 results in silly results for nearly impossible/certain events. | 1646337265692 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 52} | 0 | 5.164982449544845 | True | play | YES | public | 1646025898739 | Account deletion requested | Given odds of troll market or missclick are noticeable
AND return is abyssal for markets at 97% or 10% and someone predicting obviously true event
AND it is necessary to lock up money for some time
there is no incentive to predict that unlikely/certain events like https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2 or https://manifold.markets/colorednoise/will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-in-a-p or https://manifold.markets/AYev/will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc or https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse or
Events that already happened sitting at 93% (Kiev invasion by Russia) are embarrassing for a prediction market.
It is barely profitable that chance for exploding nuclear weapon over populated area is below 4%
----------------------------------------------------
Resolves as yes if by 2022-04-10 comment will be posted here demonstrating that condition from the title was fulfilled.
(according London time zone if near edge)
No idea how to solve it but "Will aliens land before March 2022?" at 1% and being unable to profit from pushing it lower and risking that it would mistakenly resolve as yes is extra-silly.
Mar 2, 11:09am: loans are a weird case. Is it changing specifically reward function that I mentioned in the title and condition? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 28.31046862724491, "YES": 61.509112222911895} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646337265692 | 100 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1646025898739 | 0 | 11 | 1715658826763 | 0 | 1646337250484 | 0.7793669801547494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qLwhqqmhmtyXQD0g7xXx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-this-probably-fair-coin-toss-b | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will this probably fair coin toss be heads? | 1646089200000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646034843945 | Undox | Looking at the hash of the first Ethereum mainnet block whose UTC timestamp is within March 2022, the first digit of the hash reading from left after 0x, 0 to 7 is heads and 8 to F is tails.
Example: https://etherscan.io/block/14293340 has hash 0x6c1957a92df7f622514e6ae031919dfbe3c4410451bd616aac96cb67e259e51c, so starts with 6 so would be heads.
Close date updated to 2022-03-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-01 10:00 am
Feb 28, 6:54pm: proVably fair sorry! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646075543604 | 100 | Undox | 1646034843945 | 0 | 1 | 1715658731514 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2899867290999771 | 7iH1CrfKIXMrm1rfxlLv | {"NO": 52.86895686235455, "YES": 526.4031544167796} | 0 | will-kane-tanaka-live-to-be-120-yea | 592.5461773649201 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 77.71800116965292} | Will Kane Tanaka live to be 120 years old? | 1650904733321 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 75} | 0 | 3.9063879768613115 | True | play | NO | public | 1646055986951 | LukeW | This market resolves to YES if Kane Tanaka, born 2 January 1903, lives to see her 120th birthday on 2 January 2023. Resolves to NO otherwise.
This market resolves on 2 January 2023 JST (allowing additional time as necessary for confirmation) or at the time of confirmation of Tanaka's death, whichever occurs first. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 188.1187057485999, "YES": 121.08486293430263} | {"creatorFee": 1.4602799470780903, "platformFee": 0.2433799911796817, "liquidityFee": 1.4602799470780903} | {"NO": 0.0008717797887081347, "YES": 0.0004898979485566356} | 0 | 1650904733321 | 101.46027994707809 | LukeW | 1646055986951 | 0 | 9 | 1650313814514 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523388}] | ["science-default"] | 1650904723119 | 0.039403510111911566 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.023703406155613515 | qaxWOrfdAHnnUOzGEmBj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.023703406155613515 | the-vessel-with-imo-8203660-mmsi-62 | 219.30432112456933 | {"NO": 165.69567887543067, "YES": 11} | The Vessel with IMO: 8203660, MMSI: 620558000 will reach its destination at Reni, Ukraine in the next week. | 1646719140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 166, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.863676290198305 | True | play | NO | public | 1646065242276 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/valmiera-mmsi-620558000-imo-8203660
Close date updated to 2022-03-07 11:59 pm
Mar 1, 6:10am: I have no idea what is in the ship, it's just that it's flagged Ukraine and is on the Black Sea. I am interested in creating interesting bets using machine-generated data.
Mar 1, 6:24am: I created a community around the concept: MachineGeneratedorRealTimeData | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 174.58996335031938, "YES": 27.204062618315184} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647117131836 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646065242276 | 0 | 10 | 1715658744333 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506550}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534707}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226992}] | ["politics-default", "science-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646484214974 | False | 0.023703406155613515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8889824761897541 | BPeTDUiIQhCUCL5HnBxJ | {"NO": 3884.9246559347475, "YES": 78.92776415910518} | 1 | volodymyr-zelenskyy-lives-on-octobe | 5177.058508901624 | {"NO": 206.23736631034282, "YES": 864.619438018544} | Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives on October 1st 2022 | 1664661540000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 209, "YES": 862} | 0 | 6.688841133739407 | True | play | YES | public | 1646067685669 | Arie Arie | This market resolves positively iff president Volodomyr Zelensky still lives at the and of October 1st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 380.218509548359, "YES": 1001.0845728952721} | {"creatorFee": 1.5307434475989028, "platformFee": 0.20613010851560026, "liquidityFee": 1.2367806510936017} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1680209485281 | 121.2367806510936 | ArieArie | 1680209484796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 57 | 1650313840165 | 0 | 1 | 57 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475840}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1665173998247}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "please-resolve"] | 1664647302315 | 1680209481378 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8139401966298678 | lKjRl9wMgtkMvVjrTLUx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8139401966298678 | will-i-wake-up-before-10-am-tomorro | 167 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 125} | Will I wake up before 10 am tomorrow? | 1646134200000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.876334643664024 | True | play | YES | public | 1646074593149 | Daniel Filan | I flew from San Francisco to the Bahamas on Saturday. That night, I slept from 1 am to 12 pm, and on Sunday night, I slept from 1 am to 3 am, and then from 6 am to 12 pm. Today is Monday. I'll try using melatonin - 0.3 mg at 5 pm is my plan. The question is, will it work? Resolves YES if I fall asleep before 10 am, wake up before 10 am, and don't fall asleep again before 2 pm.
Feb 28, 4:57pm: My melatonin plan has succeeded.
Mar 1, 1:59pm: The melatonin was effective! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.03529690610014, "YES": 150.66602138720594} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1646161244969 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1646074593149 | 0 | 8 | 1715658618668 | 0 | 1 | 1646083412618 | 0.8139401966298678 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV | im-accepting-m200-from-dreev | 212 | i'm accepting M$200 from dreev | 1646092740000 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.826429610508466 | True | play | 1df806d18bad | public | 1646079753904 | Sam |
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646079903587 | 280 | Cyril | 1646079753904 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "87188c0c7a48", "prob": 0.0022249911000356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.018212023209721505, "userId": "fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.166999688167511, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV", "createdTime": 1646079754073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.769", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646079903000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3856651240061707, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f22566f70d1", "prob": 0.978996084015664, "text": "I, @dreev, am herewith paying M$200 to @Cyril", "index": 1, "poolNo": 24.85551136058827, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5332636982817114, "textFts": "'200':7 'cyril':9 'dreev':2 'herewith':4 'm':6 'pay':5", "contractId": "wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV", "createdTime": 1646079852786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.754", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646079903000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6406787706182473, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1df806d18bad", "prob": 0.01877892488430046, "text": "I accept ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.5542189517867558, "userId": "fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.95859688838381, "textFts": "'accept':2", "contractId": "wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV", "createdTime": 1646079889092, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.754", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646079903000, "totalLiquidity": 4.006170641984099, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1646079987153 | {"1df806d18bad": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.947260497423322 | ipjbXnOWcys7uiaU3yKr | {"NO": 145.52732051099994, "YES": 98.17912615583127} | 1 | will-manifold-implement-range-marke | 79.75493142360673 | {"NO": 5.589813383188128, "YES": 32.9} | Will Manifold implement "range" markets? | 1653918764065 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.1, "YES": 32.9} | 0 | 9.127249729208833 | True | play | YES | public | 1646081695379 | Sam | I mean something like Metaculus where you design a probability distribution representing the value that a random variable (representing some statistic in the world) would take. It would make it easier to have questions like "How many views will the new Astral Codex post get by April?" or even "When will Kyiv fall?".
In this post, I'm going to propose a way to fake it by having the user pick a range and increment, (eg. [0; 100], ∆=0.5), that way we maintain discrete bins (so {[0; 0,5); [0,5; 1), ... ,[99,5; 100]}) , and the code to calculate payouts for "Free response" questions can be used, requiring only UX changes.
The way it would work is that you would design your distribution like in metaculus, and the system would buy shares based on that distribution's density for each bin, like how free response works today where you can buy shares in multiple options. The payout for X = x would be (your shares in x's bin / total density in x's bin) × pool.
Since under the hood Manifold stores shares and Mana amounts with decimals, we don't have an issue with splitting up a 10 mana bet among many small buckets.
One could also implement a system that allows the market maker to end with a distribution of their own, similar to ending with prob, and allocate the pool amongst those. In that case the pool for each bin would be (total density between the start and end of the bin) × pool and the payouts for each bin would be: (your shares in the bin / total density in the bin) × bin's pool.
Ideally of course the developers would implement a fully continuous system, but I think it would be a lot more work for a limited advantage, as most "continuous" events tend to be rounded to discrete values anyway (like dates, times, heights, weights etc.) and this will allow for more code reüse.
Feb 28, 9:50pm: @EmoftheNight I didn't really know what date to put for this tbh, so I just put till the end of the year.
Mar 2, 1:45pm: TBH hopefully the admins can tell me just before they enable the feature so I can close the market and avoid anyone messing with the market too much.
@danielreeves I looked into it and LS-LMSR doesn't seem like it would be any easier. If anything it would be harder because you would need to rederive alpha because in the continuous model the marginal prices at any point are zero. But I do want to make it clear, that I think a continuous system is unnecessary, and having a discrete system with small intervals would work fine. I'm just interested in it from a mathematical perspective. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.83990063426836, "YES": 37.461965667536404} | {"creatorFee": 0.11913769255470444, "platformFee": 0.01985628209245074, "liquidityFee": 0.11913769255470444} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1653918764065 | 100.1191376925547 | Cyril | 1653752081567 | 0 | 10 | 1650314725374 | 0 | 1653752080294 | 1653741903307 | 0.9637984267219687 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0084487087375551 | 9W0qrpgciECrw2YiJX5o | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0084487087375551 | will-russian-military-aircraft-viol | 2000.9004113368458 | {"NO": 1431.2910238062186, "YES": 45.80856485693562} | Will Russian military aircraft violate Canadian airspace before April 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST? | 1648785540000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1432, "YES": 45} | 0 | 4.648399230267814 | True | play | NO | public | 1646082370813 | littlebubulle | Resolves to YES if Russian military aircraft flies over Canadian Airspace for any reason. Like protecting russian civilian aircraft.
Mar 2, 6:40pm: to anyone wondering why or how would Russia violate Canadian airspace, they almost did it over the arctic circle twice in the last decade. They didn't cross but were 75 km away from it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1470.847556812027, "YES": 135.7704446819256} | {"creatorFee": 1.8039835465261578, "platformFee": 0.45099588663153944, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648786056966 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1646082370813 | 0 | 25 | 1715657671608 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474017}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226447}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646164353570 | False | 0.0084487087375551 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03723089213154974 | ygjrlCoZM44Gf8rJWTxf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03723089213154974 | will-runes-be-the-topperforming-arc | 5715.59713851576 | {"NO": 4523.1624503038975, "YES": 643.2404111803426} | Will Runes be the top-performing archetype in the alchemy portion of the Neon Dynasty Set Championship? | 1647208187773 | s4U1w2NsTBZPMkj4QoxrxpeFxWg1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4553, "YES": 606} | 0 | 4.62475096990308 | True | play | NO | public | 1646083533349 | Julian | Among archetypes with at least a 10% metagame share in the alchemy portion, I will identify the archetype with the highest non-mirror winrate. Most likely I will rely on the mtgdata winrate matrix published after the tournament to group the decks into archetypes and answer this question, or if not available I will do it myself. If the majority of the decks in this top-performing archetype contain the card "runeforge champion", I will resolve this question to yes, otherwise, no.
Close date updated to 2022-03-13 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5069.316717464944, "YES": 996.8735516552322} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647208187773 | 100 | Julian5 | 1646083533349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw00-mb6YvyD-SgdCDHeELVL8WVpdRd4tI7KoQR=s96-c | 14 | 1715658956832 | 0 | 1647028495924 | 0.03723089213154974 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18472803697240264 | DWOk480mzqPTLy4yM75M | {"NO": 83.93032509754337, "YES": 487.77832009548007} | 0 | will-any-of-the-top-vtubers-in-the | 1235.6196441189547 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 107} | Will any of the top Vtubers in the list (in description) cease activity by 2023 Jan, 2nd? | 1672664340000 | 8kB6Rw4RPZVyVnXO9ErJv6Yy8sf2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 107} | 0 | 3.9837947496709907 | True | play | NO | public | 1646089354482 | peng Jack | Ranking | Name | Subscriber count| language | organisation |
1 Pekora Ch. 2,134,531 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
2 Marine Ch. 1,802,043 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
3 Aqua Ch. 1,641,062 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
4 Kanata Ch. 1,601,467 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
5 Lamy Ch. 1,486,408 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
6 Kuzuha Channel 1,463,825 Japanese VTuber-Nijisanji
7 Mori Calliope Ch. 1,290,839 English VTuber-Hololive
8 Flare Ch. 1,277,465 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
9 Watame Ch. 1,270,045 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
10 Korone Ch. 1,245,404 Japanese VTuber-Hololive | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 140.17565409335532} | {"creatorFee": 1.2026008597051754, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1674580571499 | 200 | pengJack | 1674580580793 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz-Wp6oFPGgEEoyPQ82fZgTKQ3147uMpG_mWfcN=s96-c | 12 | 1650313854927 | 0 | 5 | 14 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672613588517}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673707469307}] | ["entertainment", "please-resolve"] | 1672662865776 | 1674580577610 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3620339111688681 | Zu9hKUVMXul3wYS3jkjr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3620339111688681 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-d2ed6f36be42 | 37.10697063798018 | {"NO": 22.893029362019817, "YES": 12} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on March 1st, 2022? | 1646196912776 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 12} | 0 | 5.495853557573178 | True | play | NO | public | 1646092829035 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on March 1st, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
So far, the base rate is: 1/3 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.870831094415923, "YES": 20.9954771135128} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196912776 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646092829035 | 0 | 6 | 1715658348800 | 0 | 0.3620339111688681 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09270320909450626 | abhDWdbrKdvXIqDEn6gH | {"NO": 214.52390232666613, "YES": 1957.021692610747} | 0 | will-russia-have-won-its-war-with-u | 4112.991866195899 | {"NO": 981.698063554288, "YES": 640.0945178072008} | Will Russia have won its war with Ukraine by the end of the year? | 1672484340000 | wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 991, "YES": 629} | 0 | 4.182496509215157 | True | play | NO | public | 1646096744471 | Samuel Millerick | Will resolve when, in my best judgement, Russia has either won the war or when it has clearly failed to do so. If Russia has not yet won by the end of the year resolves as no. (A draw counts as no.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1388.6896189685262, "YES": 837.7085189458045} | {"creatorFee": 7.009733376577183, "platformFee": 0.566390314107849, "liquidityFee": 2.941322609753616} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1672550105925 | 282.94132260975357 | SamuelMillerick | 1672420482821 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c | 62 | 1650314658666 | 0 | 1 | 59 | [{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065097851}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065096362}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065092142}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662316205496}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494884}, {"name": "How It Ends", "slug": "how-it-ends", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "InKUlX3nJIQnJr550GCs", "createdTime": 1671065102498}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "how-it-ends"] | 1672420482628 | 1649071988956 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006178628010469288 | gocAVkJzRYzMsPSPuwZu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-nato-invoke-article-5-by-april | 1764.1493068034881 | {"NO": 1379.2299138372405, "YES": 19.935014038495993} | Will NATO invoke Article 5 by April 15th? | 1650081540000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1381, "YES": 20} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1646097548838 | cos | This market resolves to "YES" if any of Reuters, the Associated Press, or Agence France-Presse reports that NATO has invoked Article 5 [1] on or before April 15th (11:59 PM EST).
[1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1394.8367675500301, "YES": 109.98038742863973} | {"creatorFee": 0.05669445380961861, "platformFee": 0.014173613452404652, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1652411402464 | 100 | cos | 1646097548838 | 0 | 28 | 1650314710941 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499413}] | ["politics-default"] | 1650867552725 | 0.006178628010469288 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10000000000000002 | x6USqjkwyM9HmGZIq7Zr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.10000000000000002 | will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi | 50 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 5} | Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons by the end of the year? | 1646102101548 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646101991799 | Gabrielle | Feb 28, 9:36pm: Closed as N/A to change the title - created https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 47.435113585823736, "YES": 15.811704528607914} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646102101548 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1646101991799 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 1 | 1715658904473 | 0 | True | 0.10000000000000002 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23826470320310064 | PUcBE4PPh1sIKzYj8h2h | {"NO": 172.71873577295486, "YES": 860.2257915184456} | 0 | will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a | 4541.844859351318 | {"NO": 1630.5298276586332, "YES": 894.1707709610394} | Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1640, "YES": 906} | 0 | 2.061469307261981 | True | play | NO | public | 1646102131369 | Gabrielle | Mar 2, 10:36pm: To clarify, only use as a military technique counts, not as an assassination technique. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2098.0725946364, "YES": 1404.3537836700596} | {"creatorFee": 31.492941636030103, "platformFee": 1.5901902735738371, "liquidityFee": 7.941505284769118} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672556568211 | 325.43975943315706 | Gabrielle | 1672370289358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 53 | 1650314571515 | 0 | 1 | 51 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671064897451}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662317777541}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660149414099}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417129}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671064899981}] | ["world-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672370289189 | 1662318111847 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6070126053187945 | ospqBMdDPpIF9B9PlirV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6070126053187945 | will-william-kiely-be-a-top-20-trad | 984.9999999999999 | {"NO": 192.0000000000001, "YES": 365} | Will William Kiely be a Top 20 trader on or before March 27th? | 1647838740000 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192, "YES": 365} | 0 | 4.701010041090505 | True | play | NO | public | 1646103885018 | William Kiely | This market resolves to "YES" if I, William Kiely, reach a Top 20 trader position on the Manifold Markets leaderboard at any point before March 27, 2022 23:59:59 CST, i.e. one month after my site join date. Otherwise it resolves "NO".
To make this interesting, I will not participate in this market myself (with the possible exception of M$ 1 "YES" trades to allow myself to comment with information for all participants), nor give favoritism to some traders by privately sharing inside information with them that might give them an advantage.
Market close is set to one week before the end of the one month period, i.e. March 20, 2022 23:59:59 CST, to decrease the chance that the outcome will be known with certainty while trading is still open. Additionally, in the event that I become a Top 20 trader before March 27, I will make an effort to close and resolve this question as soon as I can upon learning of this fact before others can buy "YES", in order to get the early "YES" buyers more profit. Feel free to DM me to notify me if resolution is appropriate.
Market ante is M$ 10. Initial probability is 20%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 349.17672316579177, "YES": 433.9651253271396} | {"creatorFee": 14.600000000000003, "platformFee": 3.650000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1647843977642 | 100 | WilliamKiely | 1646103885018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 9 | 1715658690393 | 0 | 1 | 1646670529446 | 0.6070126053187945 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.036983158851580794 | w9z60y4gyYd7VJAlI7IU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.036983158851580794 | will-this-market-pool-reach-1m-in-2 | 130 | {"NO": 117.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will this market pool reach 1M in 2022? | 1646625342362 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.939475945196416 | True | play | NO | public | 1646108036493 | Undox | Resolves to YES if I am able to close the market with over 1M poolsize. So if it spikes over 1M quickly it probably wont count unless I am fast on the trigger!
This market is a guess on inflation and riches concentration as well as can I market this market!
Date in UTC
1M as in 1Million
Mar 7, 2:55pm: need money for yolo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 127.57442925896238, "YES": 25.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646625342362 | 100 | Undox | 1646108036493 | 0 | 5 | 1715658869435 | 0 | 0.036983158851580794 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7327066614345992 | hFGapNIiKcY0bDAOyWrJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7327066614345992 | will-a-loophole-in-mm-be-discovered | 89 | {"NO": 23.75, "YES": 25.249999999999993} | Will a loophole in MM be discovered and exploited in 2022 | 1646191883841 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23.75, "YES": 25.25} | 0 | 5.313295339815771 | True | play | YES | public | 1646108377590 | Undox | Will someone find a bug in the math or code and exploit it to steal a large amount of M (at least 10000) and this gets officially reported by MM.
Creating multiple accounts doesn’t count. IRL manipulation of outcomes doesn’t count. Resolving incorrectly doesn’t count.
Hacking into the DB counts, finding some magic number so that if you trade it the rounding screws up and can be exploited counts.
Ends end of year 2022 utc
Mar 2, 2:30pm: Resolving to yes because it kinda already happened. I don't know if 10000M was taken but keeping this market open encourages people to exploit instead of report.
I may open a similar market based on bounties claimed in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 25.33372260268909, "YES": 41.94401626084464} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009539392014169457, "YES": 0.0003} | 0 | 1646191883841 | 100 | Undox | 1646108377590 | 0 | 8 | 1715658541720 | 0 | 1646191663812 | 0.7327066614345992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004780663576616596 | yEiC4qoaE2MUWbvEnn8H | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004780663576616596 | will-biden-utter-nuclear-nuke-or-nu | 5570.713185551895 | {"NO": 5009.748652667095, "YES": 295.53816178101044} | Will Biden utter "nuclear", "nuke", or "nukes" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196900896 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5056, "YES": 219} | 0 | 4.624500062286696 | True | play | NO | public | 1646109894149 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "nuclear", "nuke", or "nukes" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5292.59122362722, "YES": 366.82002905469255} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196900896 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646109894149 | 0 | 20 | 1715658943098 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513113}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856970}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.004780663576616596 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008676894670254029 | 6a76k6FNq89RvOo1Cv3Z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.008676894670254029 | will-biden-utter-taiwan-during-the | 1691.1810652789597 | {"NO": 1543.8189347210403, "YES": 89} | Will Biden utter "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196865802 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1548, "YES": 89} | 0 | 4.645273798674273 | True | play | NO | public | 1646109958698 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1625.720597825015, "YES": 152.09693300621907} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196865802 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646109958698 | 0 | 12 | 1715657607486 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471145}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.008676894670254029 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9921738530704158 | xLmO5pqofvFJFTzYP8P2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9921738530704158 | will-biden-utter-world-war-during-t | 1237.0178926666003 | {"NO": 84.29305899445853, "YES": 1110.6890483389411} | Will Biden utter "world war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196842374 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 1115} | 0 | 4.656093631903491 | True | play | YES | public | 1646110081548 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "world war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.71479320615184, "YES": 1190.2978657922426} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196842374 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646110081548 | 0 | 20 | 1715658912167 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512524}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856970}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 1646178477604 | 0.9921738530704158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | RqZ8F2m1ia5K5Z93zFWI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-gregg-abbot-be-reelect3ed-as-g | 101 | {"NO": 60.599999999999994, "YES": 40.400000000000006} | Will Gregg Abbot be reelect3ed as Governor of Texas | 1646111322756 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60.599999999999994, "YES": 40.400000000000006} | 0 | 5.015644091778908 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646111292074 | Scott Owens |
Close date updated to 2023-01-23 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 78.23503819005907, "YES": 63.8786411909333} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646111322756 | 100 | ScottOwens | 1646111292074 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 1 | 1715658180382 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486949}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010808710005016311 | 7e45mJArbFjvTXnPVA6o | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010808710005016311 | will-biden-utter-baltic-during-the | 2522.4106388368446 | {"NO": 2313.299279322443, "YES": 138.2900818407126} | Will Biden utter "Baltic" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196814299 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2317, "YES": 139} | 0 | 4.635306174387559 | True | play | NO | public | 1646111421837 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Baltic" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts.
Mar 1, 12:20am: "Baltics" also counts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2440.38907212006, "YES": 234.0864704016041} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196814299 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646111421837 | 0 | 15 | 1715657630808 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472021}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.010808710005016311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9196748584010647 | 8Vc89EzSfSuChzl7Fqzb | {"NO": 689.1716249789555, "YES": 174.08917482479941} | 1 | will-gregg-abbot-be-governor-of-tex | 2008.3529317486841 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 227.71923627002377} | Will Gregg Abbot be Governor of Texas on January 21, 2023 | 1674367140000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 230} | 0 | 4.325153164645494 | True | play | YES | public | 1646111486417 | Scott Owens | This market is resolved dependent on the holder of the office of the Governor of Texas on January 21,2023 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 59.161389438974474, "YES": 255.97236676138914} | {"creatorFee": 0.18670269331121125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1674367682492 | 200 | ScottOwens | 1674316403946 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 16 | 1650313820126 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472987}] | ["politics-default"] | 1674316403787 | 1646197965184 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9961780386012243 | t4ULfSxGP0ZBoHq6PG2l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9961780386012243 | will-biden-utter-mask-or-masks-duri | 1355 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 1328} | Will Biden utter "mask" or "masks" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196790256 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 1328} | 0 | 4.651607573021597 | True | play | YES | public | 1646111550271 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "mask" or "masks" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 83.15067047534855, "YES": 1342.4282684748932} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196790256 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646111550271 | 0 | 8 | 1715658798783 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508597}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.9961780386012243 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038290575604605304 | eFZYorxM0AnuJ6pnWPhF | {"NO": 981.8148468886104, "YES": 1339.3479555557994} | 0.028358944084384014 | this-market-resolves-no | 47266.94481142432 | {"NO": 1082.5005701453474, "YES": 180.33263532193985} | This market resolves NO | 1893473940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1100.3, "YES": 200.7} | 0.1713841173833947 | 4.595119850134597 | False | basic | public | 1646114586510 | Jenny | This market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029. | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18} | 0 | {"NO": 1187.888576858994, "YES": 428.5685003195045} | {"creatorFee": 23.81196924829872, "platformFee": 5.014884331394269, "liquidityFee": 1.3084146974662594} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1000 | Jenny | 1719521964456 | 3.3 | 137 | 1650314688927 | 1 | 83 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078152325}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1669082362652}, {"name": "Free Mana", "slug": "free-mana", "groupId": "6Kc95X62qKLbgghiIhu0", "createdTime": 1686948010560}] | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"] | 0.2529608186959382 | 1719521961426 | 1692509275271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5094663644824219 | LrzJq81Rd7Eb5f1DhuQz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5094663644824219 | will-a-norm-emerge-that-market-titl | 604.1115894404545 | {"NO": 148.60362292800616, "YES": 161.2847876315393} | Will a norm emerge that market titles be as-objective-as-possible questions? | 1648796340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 148.98000000000002, "YES": 161.01999999999998} | 0 | 4.764477987416843 | True | play | NO | public | 1646114890057 | Daniel Reeves | Lots of markets here are really polls or suggestions. That's creative and valuable and great! The founders encourage it. And market resolution being totally at the discretion of the market creator is Manifold's claim to fame and I think it's brilliant. But I think the headline question should still always be posed as an actual prediction. For example, the Manifold folks turned a "what should we implement next?" poll into "What new Manifold features would be the highest ROI?": https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be
Punchline: this market is really just me advocating for this norm/convention. My best idea for making it a prediction about something objective is whether the Manifold founders endorse it strongly enough that most people follow the convention. E.g., maybe the UI nudges you if your title doesn't end in a question mark. That would probably count. But so might a lot of things. I have not done a great job of making this objective. I'll know it when I see it?
PS: A simpler way to put all that is that people should phrase their markets in the form of a prediction. And, um, this market is predicting that people will agree. That phrasing one's market in the form of a prediction will become a thing in the Manifold community.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA (still a work in progress) are any of the following
1. A Manifold founder says publicly that they agree with this
2. Manifold's UI changes to encourage this more | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 217.04067524661463, "YES": 221.18949356928348} | {"creatorFee": 6.43633642238182, "platformFee": 1.609084105595455, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1648844931858 | 100 | dreev | 1646114890057 | 0 | 14 | 1715657994169 | 0 | 1 | 1647461696098 | 0.5094663644824219 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07134100548923229 | NgVwgvsS4ctz3hdKpLPu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07134100548923229 | time-to-ship-cargo-from-china-to-eu | 775 | {"NO": 624, "YES": 151} | Time to ship cargo from China to Europe more than or equal to 120 days for the last week of March | 1649077442677 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 624, "YES": 151} | 0 | 4.677601719481333 | True | play | NO | public | 1646135823110 | Magnus Hambleton | As measured by Flexport's FEWB metric for the week to April 4th
https://www.flexport.com/research/ocean-timeliness-indicator/
Mar 1, 1:04pm: Currently this stands at 110 days, an all time high. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 746.8448620700286, "YES": 207.00072946876298} | {"creatorFee": 6.04, "platformFee": 1.51, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1649077442677 | 100 | Mag | 1646135823110 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 9 | 1715658061895 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483790}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569180}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182237886}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "china"] | False | 0.07134100548923229 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9868620599460285 | 6lzBj7Fw8T1Awx2o9gFu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9868620599460285 | will-manifold-fix-the-typeerror-on | 73 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 66} | Will Manifold Fix the TypeError on Community Pages When Clicking Edit by the Time This Market Resolves? | 1646227760187 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 66} | 0 | 5.134070758474087 | True | play | YES | public | 1646137388094 | Patrick Delaney | Resolution will be either by a developer or interested party commenting on this or simply by me trying to replicate the error and finding that it no longer exists / still exists after close date.
On this community:
https://manifold.markets/fold/machine-generated-or-real-time-data
When I click, "Edit" to change the tags, the page redirects to, "Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser console for more information)."
Upon inspection, the console outputs:
//---
framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1 TypeError: Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'id')
at [...slugs]-4f964509a1086152.js:1:9262
at Array.map (<anonymous>)
at d ([...slugs]-4f964509a1086152.js:1:9105)
at ro (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:59430)
at jo (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:68997)
at Hu (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:112879)
at Pi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:99062)
at xi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:98990)
at _i (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:98853)
at vi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:95819)
uu @ framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1
main-cae48417baecdf6f.js:1 TypeError: Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'id')
at [...slugs]-4f964509a1086152.js:1:9262
at Array.map (<anonymous>)
at d ([...slugs]-4f964509a1086152.js:1:9105)
at ro (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:59430)
at jo (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:68997)
at Hu (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:112879)
at Pi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:99062)
at xi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:98990)
at _i (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:98853)
at vi (framework-7d0dc5588c5f0fc5.js:1:95819)
ye @ main-cae48417baecdf6f.js:1
main-cae48417baecdf6f.js:1 A client-side exception has occurred, see here for more info: https://nextjs.org/docs/messages/client-side-exception-occurred
ye @ main-cae48417baecdf6f.js:1
Mar 1, 6:23am: Now the error just occurs when clicking on the above linked community.
Mar 2, 7:28am: Bug appears to be fixed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.36743692536729, "YES": 72.519873140402} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646227760187 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646137388094 | 0 | 9 | 1715657609234 | 0 | 1646167367909 | 0.9868620599460285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9267459213166034 | AoBVWqkib9icRCss2cWM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9267459213166034 | will-anyone-besides-myself-attempt | 102 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 74} | Will anyone besides myself attempt to put together a bet based upon Machine Generated data by March 15th, 2022? | 1647406740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 74} | 0 | 5.047250078798447 | True | play | YES | public | 1646138028634 | Patrick Delaney | Title is self explanatory. See Community Tagged for examples.
This does not include stock market or financial product bets, but rather data from some kind of machine tracking, streaming data such as weather, GPS tracking, satellite information, or something interesting and extremely niche that perhaps only the market maker is interested in, but we might be!
Closes 11:59PM CST.
Mar 2, 7:32am: @Martin I'm not sure that your bet was technically machine-generated, or if it came from human measurements -- I am not sure how rainfall data is collected. However, I am willing to resolve based upon a PROB just because you made an effort, and I'm willing to go YES if there is more proof showing how this data is collected, or if another bet is set up with much more indisputably machine generated data. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24.90052209894403, "YES": 88.56719483081758} | {"creatorFee": 0.7199999999999992, "platformFee": 0.1799999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1647609713558 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646138028634 | 0 | 6 | 1715657719289 | 0 | 1 | 1647404390698 | 0.9267459213166034 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01101273032501102 | xG4ddgOelYm9KYPniJvo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01101273032501102 | will-the-twitter-account-putinjet-p | 45.87549222504916 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 2.6187524484540923} | Will the Twitter Account @PutinJet produce any meaningful evidence by the end of March, 2022 that it has in fact tracked a single airplane on which Putin was in, while he was in fact in it at the time of tracking? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 2} | 0 | 5.385025656813547 | True | play | NO | public | 1646138534344 | Patrick Delaney | https://twitter.com/PutinJet
This market will resolve at the end of March, CST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 42.384422829236556, "YES": 4.472583168595079} | {"creatorFee": 0.10475009793816327, "platformFee": 0.026187524484540817, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648868918394 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646138534344 | 0 | 4 | 1715658907130 | 0 | 1 | 0.01101273032501102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5714961885904396 | NS2ddlnefvBNiN8UYYD8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-ukraine-control-both-kyiv-and | 304.4437585019267 | {"NO": 144.0562414980733, "YES": 149.5} | Will Ukraine control both Kyiv and Odessa on October 1st? | 1646780340000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 144.5, "YES": 149.5} | 0 | 2.830462683043767 | True | play | YES | public | 1646144505357 | Arie Arie | This market will resolve as true if an independent state called "Ukraine" controls the cities of Kyiv and Odessa on October 1st 2022.
- Ukraine must not be an obvious puppet of Russia.
- If one or both cities is divided or under active dispute, Ukraine must control Mariinskyi Palace in Kyiv and Odessa City Hall. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.163164799818, "YES": 221.9215449884849} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1681361146414 | 100 | ArieArie | 1681361099674 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 12 | 1650314557095 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662754422668}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662754420852}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662754417231}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666828961396}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225077}] | ["ukraine", "russia", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1681361096784 | False | 0.57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | IGu48nF6pTdXEJzCqaIO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | semiconductor-shortage-becomes-was | 105 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 50} | Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in March than in January, as measured by import prices. | 1646148694669 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.003052247763852 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646145012782 | Magnus Hambleton | Import Price Index by Origin (NAICS): Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for Industrialized Countries as measured by FRED. If February numbers are higher than January, then this resolves to Yes. If February is equal to or lower than January, this resolves to No
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COINDUSZ3344
Mar 1, 4:32pm: Gabrielle pointed out the question mentions March which is incorrect (I originally wanted to make one for March, but realised the delay in the data was ~2 weeks and I want to get a feeling for what people think the trend is currently, including for February)
Mar 1, 4:32pm: I've closed the market and opened a new one with the corrected title: https://manifold.markets/MagnusHambleton/semiconductor-shortage-becomes-was-0ab4bf645d9a | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.62158205357579, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646148694669 | 100 | Mag | 1646145012782 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 2 | 1715657902909 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567890}] | ["economics-default"] | 1646148626450 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016307586043953628 | ZUusR7v0wnJ71BiqHLTD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016307586043953628 | will-there-be-a-nato-nofly-zone-in | 7658.5987406136355 | {"NO": 3936.315259798335, "YES": 260.4911442715995} | Will there be a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine during March 2022? | 1648767540000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4000, "YES": 260} | 0 | 4.626962521583719 | True | play | NO | public | 1646147983893 | Pontifex Minimus | Resolves YES if one or more NATO countries institute a no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine during some or all of March 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4162.446844885692, "YES": 535.9371701583748} | {"creatorFee": 7.896050375454601, "platformFee": 1.9740125938636504, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1649436385780 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1646147983893 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 49 | 1715658338642 | 0 | 1 | 1646243720725 | 0.016307586043953628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006345841976879506 | E0TLOQF3bb9v2OhuqYi4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.006345841976879506 | will-nato-troops-fight-in-ukraine-d | 908.611620031367 | {"NO": 868.6711800087547, "YES": 25.17269293449135} | Will NATO troops fight in Ukraine during March 2022? | 1648767540000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 869, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.669520483072766 | True | play | NO | public | 1646148148214 | Pontifex Minimus | Resolves YES if one or more NATO countries have troops fighting in Ukraine during March 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 891.0042600932182, "YES": 71.20439159675712} | {"creatorFee": 0.9937549177298388, "platformFee": 0.2484387294324597, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1649436353364 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1646148148214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 18 | 1715657801940 | 0 | 1 | 0.006345841976879506 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.973481140057567 | Sha7Q5Qc9n5OFFIRQ61u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.973481140057567 | semiconductor-shortage-becomes-was-0ab4bf645d9a | 1237.2475818430366 | {"NO": 78.0188586320732, "YES": 594.7335595248902} | Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in February than in January, as measured by import prices. | 1647471540000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 620} | 0 | 4.686758378015528 | True | play | YES | public | 1646148734074 | Magnus Hambleton | Import Price Index by Origin (NAICS): Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for Industrialized Countries as measured by FRED. If February numbers are higher than January, then this resolves to Yes. If February is equal to or lower than January, this resolves to No
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COINDUSZ3344 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.55528622537415, "YES": 663.7731547011783} | {"creatorFee": 3.200732718925399, "platformFee": 0.8001831797313498, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647511650539 | 100 | Mag | 1646148734074 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 15 | 1715658194675 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570328}] | ["economics-default"] | 1647452743053 | 0.973481140057567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4456918211097959 | Y92q6hlbdYgPGV3PFl1g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4456918211097959 | will-a-majortriplea-game-engine-sup | 1001.5619200602002 | {"NO": 350, "YES": 258.43807993979976} | Will a major/Triple-A game engine support "geometric algebra" operations out-of-the-box by January 2026? | 1646783940000 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 350, "YES": 255} | 0 | 4.694033374116986 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646152809682 | Hamish Todd | This market resolves to "YES" if any triple-A game engine (eg Unity, Snowdrop, Frostbyte, Unreal Engine, id Tech, CryEngine) fully supports geometric algebra operations, such as those described in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4H_ctggYo
The definition of support is the relatively mild requirement that the geometric product AND the meet/wedge product are both available as functions.
The stripped-down versions of these functions like quaternion multiplication, dual quaternion multiplication, and plane-meet operations do not count; the geometric and wedge product must take in all geometric algebra primitives. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 452.9943072476894, "YES": 406.1948689966135} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007874007874011811, "YES": 0.0006164414002968976} | 0 | 1646819189069 | 100 | HamishTodd | 1646152809682 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 7 | 1715658315725 | 0 | 1 | 1646245058225 | 0.4456918211097959 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37551009212905273 | DbQ4IBuhaFpYeBoP263d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.37551009212905273 | will-there-be-another-pandemic-with | 178 | {"NO": 112, "YES": 64} | Will there be another pandemic with as much impact on the world as SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 2029? | 1646194835489 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 112, "YES": 64} | 0 | 4.864543334685958 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646155489648 | Andy Martin | This market resolves YES if there is another pandemic that's as impactful on the world as SARS-CoV-2 that's caused by a virus other than SARS-CoV-2 before January 1, 2030.
(SARS-CoV-2 variants do not count.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.55724273802494, "YES": 107.2386497507312} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008, "YES": 0.0006} | 0 | 1646194835489 | 100 | AndyMartin | 1646155489648 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 5 | 1715657791892 | 0 | 1646194830168 | 0.37551009212905273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2269147888375028 | rSJc1mmPse9b1PCB6NKY | {"NO": 91.66371869805367, "YES": 138.595771058067} | 0 | will-the-evidence-linked-below-this | 847.0848887960707 | {"NO": 509.2109056139044, "YES": 166.61273029691222} | Will the evidence linked below this market change how I feed my vegetarian toddler? | 1651359600000 | 4OrOE700Upe1pqoXXGfXvVVifVX2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 510, "YES": 168} | 0 | 3.953279836625873 | True | play | NO | public | 1646156057103 | micheal | My 15month old daughter has a vegetarian diet, but I'm open to the possibility that we should feed her more meat/dairy/supplements than we currently do since the lack of protein or other nutrients might have LT cognitive or health consequences.
Current diet:
lots of pasta/rice/bread/potatoes/fruit/butter/yogurt, some veg
breastfed (4times/night, decreasing slowly)
v occasional mussels (my attempt at ethical meat - she's not a fan and rarely eats any)
v occasional vit d/wellbaby multi-vit (she's not a fan, every 3 days?)
If anyone can link to evidence (blog posts, newspapers articles, academic papers, twitter threads) that results in us adding more meat, dairy products, or other kinds of supplements, the question will resolve to yes. Also resolves to yes if I update towards thinking it's worth it but her vegetarian mother vetos it.
What might change my mind/behaviour:
- Good empirical evidence. I'm not a biologist/medic but I work in research and understand the basics of study design and statistics and have authored a Cochrane review. I'm sceptical of some observational nutritional epidemiology claims. Appreciate work by George Davey Smith, Emily Oster and EBM advocates.
- Strong first-principles arguments. I won't put her in hard shoes because of Richard Wrangham and am more relaxed about sleeping less because of Alexey Guzey.
- Peoples trades on what will change my mind/behaviour.
Mar 2, 1:40pm: Three clarifications:
(1) She occasionally eats lentils, tofu, quorn, impossible burgers, cheese and eggs - thanks for the suggestions.
(2) Only links to convincing studies/blogs etc indicating we should expect her to benefit from consuming more animal products (or supplements substituting something she would otherwise consume in animal products) will result in me resolving Yes.
(3) Feel free to also link to sources indicating *no* health benefits to increasing her meat products/supplement consumption: these may increase the chance I resolve to No and potentially decrease her current animal product intake. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 594.1651639438466, "YES": 322.0352410211802} | {"creatorFee": 0.3728854714027767, "platformFee": 0.06491919014167755, "liquidityFee": 0.33962613250819973} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1651582458595 | 100.3396261325082 | micheal | 1646156057103 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_LXQhTNp6qG9hkUYlLkT5TGKVh70HHVQRand-JA=s96-c | 17 | 1650314778528 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534856}, {"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1659617474577}] | ["science-default", "parenting"] | 1651353803877 | 1651332264897 | 0.1625671907247771 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0591652976827203 | 0SPMdjJZRAZwIjuSx3t7 | {"NO": 111.68873439620813, "YES": 411.50963954423946} | 0 | will-putin-invade-any-nato-countrie | 2074.8727450730244 | {"NO": 702.3942506548614, "YES": 105} | Will Putin invade any NATO countries in 2022? | 1672444800000 | dB6s3OdVBhXU9StosDE3yXiuwjy2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 714, "YES": 105} | 0 | 9.595067525190217 | True | play | NO | public | 1646161253268 | S4V | Resolves yes if there are any boots on the ground.
Mar 1, 7:02pm: airspace violations do not count, shooting down aircraft also won't count, only a land invasion.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 779.357756879016, "YES": 210.92315561012913} | {"creatorFee": 0.5888788867356528, "platformFee": 0.0981464811226088, "liquidityFee": 0.5888788867356528} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672499847121 | 120.58887888673564 | S4vs4v | 1671638965125 | 0 | 27 | 1650313767638 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1671638963898 | 1646162270378 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9908587469105876 | 0cr2U8RSS0Zq2ZKRVP0x | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9908587469105876 | how-much-will-be-pledged-to-the-a-y | 832.3432461888766 | {"NO": 57.686878714668296, "YES": 731.9698750964551} | How much will be pledged to the "A Year of Sanderson" Kickstarter? | 1648767710192 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 732} | 0 | 4.6764775793075914 | True | play | YES | public | 1646162390649 | Nathaniel Lovin | Brandon Sanderson launched a Kickstarter campaign today to release four novels in 2023. Currently, ~$5,000,000 has been pledged to the campaign.
This question will resolve to the amount of hundreds of thousands of dollars pledged to the campaign (rounded up/down), minus 25. For example, if the campaign closed at this moment, the result would be 25% ($4,990,592 rounds up to $5,000,000 -> 50 - 25 = 25%). If the campaign closes above $12,500,000 the question will resolve to 100%.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.49909933615103, "YES": 786.0402369811986} | {"creatorFee": 2.3062701524449336, "platformFee": 0.5765675381112334, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007549834435270751, "YES": 0.0006557438524302001} | 0 | 1648767710192 | 100 | NathanielLovin | 1646162390649 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 15 | 1715656876715 | 0 | 1646283199210 | 0.9908587469105876 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7030637515647846 | lH6nejQzAzPzvftsEA8Y | {"NO": 34.292464731459184, "YES": 163.2957937383355} | 0 | will-i-get-pregnant-before-elena | 304.2757462904226 | {"NO": 59, "YES": 95.5474313380513} | Will I get pregnant before Elena? | 1664693940000 | c0g1rqIEh8b7V3GvcSaHip3h6Yq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 59, "YES": 96} | 0 | 3.5504494966763223 | True | play | NO | public | 1646163759907 | spiracular | Related: https://manifold.markets/Elena/will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34
I am not currently pregnant, but I am going to be trying.
The time of pregnancy is assessed as "first positive pregnancy test."
(with no backstrapolation to ovulation or implantation)
Mar 2, 1:15pm: Resolves when one of us gets a positive pregnancy test, or N/As on Jan 1 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-10-01 11:59 pm
Mar 4, 3:02pm: Changed close date to Oct 1, for consistency with related market https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/who-will-be-pregnant-first-4376584ca80d
Mar 4, 3:04pm: | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 84.04235837064545, "YES": 129.70003711854656} | {"creatorFee": 1.3684466832449318, "platformFee": 0.2280744472074887, "liquidityFee": 1.3684466832449318} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1675979320464 | 101.36844668324494 | spiracular | 1664690671751 | 0 | 18 | 1650314738275 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1664690671648 | 1646279698149 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038569601949154396 | eh7zy7yhezv0FyK9FZwt | {"NO": 203.21145073630802, "YES": 1265.183596842732} | 0 | will-the-bayesian-conspiracy-discor | 1724.376225415021 | {"NO": 35.632046729625095, "YES": 5.683565813587123} | Will The Bayesian Conspiracy Discord be banned before March 1, 2023? | 1677733140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 6} | 0 | 10.417111441232692 | True | play | NO | public | 1646166043513 | Garrett Baker | Banned = nobody is able to comment in it.
Mar 1, 4:04pm: ... against the will of the server owners, and if Discord shuts down, it's also a yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 40.023725177771986, "YES": 10.254944901855968} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677733700017 | 220 | GarrettBaker | 1677716678741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 15 | 1650314692959 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1677716678612 | 1646168729319 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7 | where-will-be-the-most-popular-sche | 22.30044388103616 | Where will be the most popular Schelling point to receive information regarding The Bayesian Conspiracy Discord if it gets banned in the next year? | 1677733140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.1239061085877085 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646166328832 | Garrett Baker | Resolves to N/A if not banned. I will put out a survey if it re-congregates somewhere, asking people where they heard about the move.
Mar 2, 8:05am: @Martin recently Discord released a new policy on banning those who spread “harmful misinformation” among other stuff. Depending on how broad a definition they use, it’s increased the likelihood that the server gets banned, since there is political discussion on it, and sometimes disagreement with the popular narrative. https://discord.com/blog/addressing-health-misinformation and https://discord.com/blog/important-policy-updates
A Schelling point is a special choice which, without explicit coordination, everyone is able to coordinate to select anyway. An example would be a set of 4 squares, 3 of which are blue and 1 red . If two participants are told to select the same square, and are not given access to each other beforehand or during their selection, they will usually choose the red square and be right. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678153395371 | 300 | GarrettBaker | 1646166328832 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2ad1cdff5f2e", "prob": 0.5327279627581093, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.83493385644796, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 61.25436262967856, "textFts": "", "contractId": "X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7", "createdTime": 1646166328998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1678153395000, "totalLiquidity": 65.40408521386473, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a8e86485885", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "I wish I understood this question!", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'question':6 'understood':4 'wish':2", "contractId": "X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7", "createdTime": 1646220204896, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1678153395000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fb248756f7c9", "prob": 0.11189387217920291, "text": "https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5.560387485125502, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.133017317420794, "textFts": "'www.thebayesianconspiracy.com':1", "contractId": "X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7", "createdTime": 1646220471136, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1678153395000, "totalLiquidity": 15.665142105088407, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8212ca077117", "prob": 0.35527816506268795, "text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/thebayesianconspiracy/", "index": 3, "poolNo": 47.472170786222996, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 86.14755441655339, "textFts": "'/r/thebayesianconspiracy/':3 'www.reddit.com':2 'www.reddit.com/r/thebayesianconspiracy/':1", "contractId": "X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7", "createdTime": 1646220535768, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1678153395000, "totalLiquidity": 63.95006971128383, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | 1646220361191 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11842051166981292 | mck4Yr40mQY4rnmcUASm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11842051166981292 | will-putin-get-killed-by-2022 | 4574.57621140236 | {"NO": 2868.42378859764, "YES": 1093} | Will Putin get killed by 2022? | 1646436566770 | o2mr4sGLvaVvBvxd4CGPPJCRUkY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2894, "YES": 1093} | 0 | 4.627661675249199 | True | play | NO | public | 1646167046280 | Nikola | Meaning the end of 2022
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am
Mar 2, 10:44am:
1 Starting to look real good https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4bm7n/russian_entrepreneur_puts_a_1000000_bounty_on/
Mar 5, 1:28am: I don't care anymore. Take all the money. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3719.4793619397533, "YES": 1363.2166488933801} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646436566770 | 100 | niki | 1663078208785 | 0 | 28 | 1715658649261 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504181}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661917400243}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225439}] | ["politics-default", "improperly-resolved", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1663078205000 | False | 0.11842051166981292 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4400062229391418 | ZhrRhoa1IFFWSE1RFT4c | {"NO": 70.80009768340413, "YES": 158.11462556465298} | 0 | will-i-get-a-4th-covid-vaccine-befo | 324.37076204572924 | {"NO": 101.16751844283357, "YES": 98} | Will I get a 4th COVID vaccine before the end of August 2022? | 1662004740000 | FX8JTczvl7NejJmqB4DVO5NgR1X2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 101, "YES": 98} | 0 | 2.876570278573837 | True | play | NO | public | 1646167707523 | Bayesian Philosopher | I am a mid-20's male who lives in the United States. I got the first three vaccines in Feb, March, and November 2021. I intend to get a 4th vaccine approximately as soon as it is allowed and convenient, and I am convinced my risks from the vaccine (Myocarditis, unknown long-term risks, etc.,) are less than my risk (or the risk to the people I interact with) from the disease by enough to be worth the expected side-effects (a day or two of flu-like symptoms from the 2nd and 3rd vaccines). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.04320576523554, "YES": 132.114425987229} | {"creatorFee": 1.2173520324243845, "platformFee": 0.0687615440115513, "liquidityFee": 0.41256926406930783} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1672266323904 | 100.4125692640693 | BayesianPhilosopher | 1662000051621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwhr0P01elPDQx93GRYMErBtr8HdMixiP1N8p1v=s96-c | 21 | 1650314649717 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1662000051444 | 1646230269536 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5422362425966606 | Pe5w8AJ97zD1o3qatNd7 | {"NO": 107.2190800008149, "YES": 174.29589127645139} | 0 | will-i-manage-at-least-1-fte-by-the | 125.59649800304533 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 20.5} | Will I manage at least 1 FTE by the end of the year? | 1672531293037 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 2.205740476914512 | True | play | NO | public | 1646168401447 | Nuño Sempere | Managing more than one person would count as long as they add up to at least 1 FTE (40h/week). Contractors would count, people funded independently would also count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24.749444448310346, "YES": 28.83645263377588} | {"creatorFee": 0.23060039320038578, "platformFee": 0.038433398866730965, "liquidityFee": 0.23060039320038578} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672531293037 | 140.2306003932004 | NuñoSempere | 1672531282829 | 0 | 7 | 1650314572985 | 0 | 8 | 1672531282681 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018920070927315177 | Rs5pNLa5BcgfQMPBTatU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-a-us-city-be-nuked-by-the-end | 356.00644851285017 | {"NO": 345.0935514871498, "YES": 8.9} | Will a US city be nuked by the end of the year? | 1646801940000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 345.1, "YES": 8.9} | 0 | 9.948249930413429 | True | play | NO | public | 1646168522366 | Nuño Sempere | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 350.62975894633354, "YES": 48.6920386082201} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773} | 0 | 1672531117047 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1646168522366 | 0 | 19 | 1650314593626 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666827558036}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 1646732429824 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8488098285971785 | WFUSbouuwq7OWF0dmpG6 | {"NO": 121.97281897370988, "YES": 96.89494056028083} | 1 | will-quri-receive-a-grant-from-the | 58 | {"NO": 5.500000000000001, "YES": 30.5} | Will QURI receive a grant from the SFF in the first half of this year? | 1654888733328 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.500000000000001, "YES": 30.5} | 0 | 5.3951499598555115 | True | play | YES | public | 1646168645014 | Nuño Sempere | Grant amount does not matter.
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 14.000392856987983, "YES": 33.16716751322006} | {"creatorFee": 0.16308615774076432, "platformFee": 0.027181026290127388, "liquidityFee": 0.16308615774076432} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1654888733328 | 100.16308615774076 | NuñoSempere | 1654673278909 | 0 | 3 | 1650314622325 | 0 | 1654673277639 | 0.8760416082623792 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47005376615255295 | n7EI0bLSZ1mquevdy9TH | {"NO": 214.36651138239546, "YES": 81.48841705322783} | 1 | will-i-become-significantly-more-me | 847.6494820991242 | {"NO": 228.60760333800496, "YES": 211.6} | Will I become significantly more mellow by the end of the year? | 1672531233031 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 227.4, "YES": 211.6} | 0 | 2.325495161984213 | True | play | YES | public | 1646168905900 | Nuño Sempere | I've long been a fan of biting criticism, speaking plainly, and calling out bullshit. Will I adopt a significantly different approach by the end of the year? Question resolves according to my own judgment.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 324.36120491226586, "YES": 297.6128747226168} | {"creatorFee": 1.3329457979752062, "platformFee": 0.22215763299586772, "liquidityFee": 1.3329457979752062} | {"NO": 0.00058309518948453, "YES": 0.000812403840463596} | 0 | 1672531233031 | 141.33294579797519 | NuñoSempere | 1672539060360 | 0 | 31 | 1650314751456 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1672521534569 | 1672539057798 | 0.7 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.