p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.3212960815697107 | 4Hj4Q7i39XLoLZF0Y7nm | {"NO": 65.33773234321066, "YES": 710.2415247283711} | 0 | will-the-book-of-dust-volume-three | 880.4006681176023 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 50} | Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2022? | 1672527540000 | QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 50} | 0 | 3.0836970806712665 | True | play | NO | public | 1645887266569 | ianminds | Previous books were released in October 2017 and October 2019, respectively. Apparently people were expecting the next volume to drop in October 2021. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.11866610316638, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672534467009 | 160 | ianminds | 1686759050358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c | 6 | 1650313793111 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1665750626023}] | ["books"] | 1672334687570 | 1686759047930 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1375836126359572 | DiNVMWMJqM5UGXUatWtm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1375836126359572 | will-i-sell-my-hair-in-march | 411.735902215024 | {"NO": 271.6182035643029, "YES": 102.64589422067306} | Will I sell my hair in March? | 1648785540000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 274, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.7403573980808895 | True | play | NO | public | 1645893683424 | Blazer | It's already been chopped and has been sitting in the living room braided for over a month and a half; I just have to do the actual selling. But that's intimidating and exactly the sort of task I'm bad at. Initial probability set somewhat high to hopefully motivate me.
This market resolves YES if, before 2022/04/01,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 347.5664346035048, "YES": 138.82340205096992} | {"creatorFee": 4.010563911399039, "platformFee": 1.0026409778497598, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648828438602 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1645893683424 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 16 | 1715657794841 | 0 | 1 | 0.1375836126359572 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7677397549150513 | io9FyaZHbJLlSe53oiWX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7677397549150513 | will-masozi-feature-in-any-glowfic | 36 | {"NO": 13, "YES": 23} | Will Masozi feature in any glowfic updates before March 5? | 1646380740000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 13, "YES": 23} | 0 | 5.477936833932487 | True | play | YES | public | 1645896729257 | Em ✨ | I miss my fave problematic baby ma'ar drama uwu
Resolves Yes early if I check scholomance threads with swimmer and see new masozi content. Passing cameos and discussion don't count. Must be posted before I wake up on March 5th. Will resolve N/A in unlikely event it looks like glowfic authors timed their posts to game ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 17.350100881551093, "YES": 31.544349738106828} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645967648983 | 100 | hamnox | 1645896729257 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 3 | 1715658560628 | 0 | 0.7677397549150513 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16438857968754378 | Q0yEHuk9BYYbYQZlaigp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.16438857968754378 | is-it-true-that-ukraine-has-shot-do | 5999.291268441908 | {"NO": 2235.6057154387213, "YES": 1073.1030161193712} | Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes? | 1646891940000 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2296, "YES": 998} | 0 | 4.630116855123633 | True | play | NO | public | 1645898856300 | Ophelia | Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian IL-7640 transport planes (see eg https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/two-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-around-kyiv-ukraine-says).
So far I found "US officials" confirming this (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3024.550583780175, "YES": 1341.5117792484098} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646974225289 | 100 | Ophelia | 1645898856300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 48 | 1715658129050 | 0 | 1 | 1646593525555 | 0.16438857968754378 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03583526035782091 | dJ1HgwEvYyBQEWG1EXlv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03583526035782091 | will-the-russian-federation-qualify | 774 | {"NO": 694, "YES": 80} | Will the Russian Federation qualify for the FIFA 2022 World Cup in Qatar by April 5th? | 1646095119310 | qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 694, "YES": 80} | 0 | 4.6776799206847794 | True | play | NO | public | 1645900409654 | Alex Desjardins | The Russian Federation are scheduled to play against Poland in the European qualifier playoffs on March 24, 2022. The winner of that game will compete (on March 29) against either Sweden or the Czech Republic for a spot in the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
Earlier today (February 26th), Sweden and Poland publicly stated that th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 761.0790944446379, "YES": 140.84090315078927} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646095119310 | 100 | AlexDesjardins | 1645900409654 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwjGzYGd26to92fNpH-ekItGncUD85RFuPuVbM9=s96-c | 3 | 1715658461714 | 0 | 0.03583526035782091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9980540256280954 | OTn2FqqhBrdYmr0f5B2p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9980540256280954 | will-the-7day-average-of-flights-tr | 39045.9343107899 | {"NO": 906.0868379107094, "YES": 135.97885129940119} | Will the 7-day average of flights tracked on flightradar24 for the first week of March, 2022 exceed the 7-day average of flights for the first week of March, 2020? | 1646719140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4, "YES": 862} | 0 | 4.6619645626109545 | True | play | YES | public | 1645902065994 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Resolution resolves to YES/NO.
Feb 27, 6:46am: I am curious about people's rationale for either Yes or No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 45.96889577442799, "YES": 1041.052277929693} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646744935851 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645902065994 | 0 | 13 | 1715658081713 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527902}] | ["science-default"] | 1646712665342 | 0.9980540256280954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8888814818518356 | f2bkjkbjZAcL1KZ9s4sw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8888814818518356 | will-the-nasa-firms-fire-informatio | 15 | {"NO": 2.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will the NASA FIRMS (Fire Information Resource Management System) Map show an active fire within the boundaries of Kiev on, "Day Mode" looking backward at Sat, Feb 26th UTC time? | 1645966800000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 6.056281388568342 | True | play | NO | public | 1645903932938 | Patrick Delaney | https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:advanced;d:2022-02-26;@30.7,50.4,10z
Feb 27, 10:41am: Resolving NO. Just to make sure there are no doubts, there was no fire showing within the boundaries of Kiev on either 26 Feb 2022 or 27 Feb 2022.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:advanced;d:2022-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.000499999999998, "YES": 14.143019506102648} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645980222348 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645903932938 | 0 | 2 | 1715658497110 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531675}] | ["science-default"] | 0.8888814818518356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR | in-what-month-will-queen-elizabeth | 1855.2308113536217 | In what month will Queen Elizabeth II die? | 1662668873134 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.644633907993505 | True | play | cb63a4ba7422 | public | 1645906058696 | Duncn | Please list responses [month, year], e.g., January 2022.
Close date updated to 2023-10-05 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03707392892736153, "platformFee": 0.009268482231840382, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662668873134 | 1520 | Duncn | 1662658758051 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2c9cbd5d25da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.000300022501875e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5999699992499625, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FdJtzz3M9p8NYnJTHBmR", "createdTime": 1645906058863, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 17 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478883}] | ["politics-default"] | 1662658757891 | {"cb63a4ba7422": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016763670487074726 | OmK8lkm8by4ggkptpX4k | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016763670487074726 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-e6cd647fe902 | 4535.248827660046 | {"NO": 4072.0317206522773, "YES": 204.7194516876765} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time? | 1646490484178 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4073, "YES": 183} | 0 | 4.6267424675745925 | True | play | NO | public | 1645914037048 | Daniel Filan | This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post. The media outlet mus... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4240.753635725975, "YES": 553.7307510798273} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006855654600401045, "YES": 0.0007280109889280518} | 0 | 1646490484178 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1645914037048 | 0 | 52 | 1715658091768 | 0 | 1646323530490 | 0.016763670487074726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19425521488708447 | aryOqMgsnTs9Yp3ojDq4 | {"NO": 138.8795937663351, "YES": 737.8700326131652} | 0 | will-a-nonukrainian-military-engage | 1251.6739020280409 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 125.97066875188426} | Will a non-Ukrainian military engage Russia in 2022? | 1672473540000 | clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 127} | 0 | 2.949693932730016 | True | play | NO | public | 1645917856397 | Raven Kopelman | Resolves YES if any non-Ukrainian military (or spy agency, or any official government agency) fights with Russia, anywhere, before the end of 2022 (Moscow time). NO otherwise.
Mar 5, 1:29am: Cyber attacks would count, regardless of casualties. YES does not require an official declaration of war. Unsure about "unint... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 209.8056096121729, "YES": 191.36748634236275} | {"creatorFee": 0.04537393525215748, "platformFee": 0.01134348381303937, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672549782477 | 220 | RavenKopelman | 1672464110688 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg55dHNRTFGTLkKUIqZ8LYwnKDlljtkFxJmMgu4iA=s96-c | 28 | 1650314660876 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662319135224}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225078}] | ["wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672464110499 | 1648711189732 | False | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC | i-bethany-am-accepting-m100-from-da | 111 | I, Bethany, am accepting M$100 from Danny to settle a personal debt. | 1646553540000 | Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.985601068603796 | True | play | c172ade05d1b | public | 1645918070601 | bethany soule | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645918265142 | 260 | bethanysoule | 1645918070601 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixuivUBh-0LMt0Ru5lFvmIXQ8DKcqaleSxPGjchA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f3943380f24f", "prob": 0.008116224332440547, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12725731601606377, "userId": "Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.552116590323159, "textFts": "", "contractId": "P55b9skTXBcO4hJNHZZC", "createdTime": 1645918070794, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | {"c172ade05d1b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW | what-specific-new-measures-will-cou | 164.89604322804172 | What specific new measures will countries impose to prevent mass casualty attacks in Ukraine? | 1646582340000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.903464189827921 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645924634590 | p_journal | There have been chilling reports of Russian forces considering thermobaric weapons or trying to destroy large dams that would kill millions of civilians. This question is designed to generate new ideas to deter such escalations of the conflict. Please raise new suggestions. If something would work, maybe it would be pu... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646734696481 | 679.9999999999999 | p_journal | 1645924634590 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "09dc97abff08", "prob": 0.4498022909200159, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.781775460172845, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.20583874540005, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Wv5FYejlQHV6Nf6nxqEW", "createdTime": 1645924634868, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1645933243247 | {"5307c1e2d551": 66.11500505998923, "c79314c878a8": 33.88499494001078} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9945005922962078 | 6BRnw7qoVf4FL5nVE4Iw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9945005922962078 | will-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-con | 2316.1812349749844 | {"NO": 78.8, "YES": 1495.0318829475355} | Will the Ukrainian armed forces control >60,000 km^2 of Ukrainian territory on 26 March 2022? | 1648339140000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 78.8, "YES": 1505.2} | 0 | 4.646386098594736 | True | play | YES | public | 1645934571034 | Pontifex Minimus | This market resolves to YES if on 23:59 of 26 March 2022, the Ukrainian armed forces control at least 60,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory. I will use maps from Wikipedia in adjudicating the result. See https://pontifex.substack.com/p/ukraine-might-win for background and discussion. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 116.71228556111822, "YES": 1569.4993424165716} | {"creatorFee": 3.590248664964169, "platformFee": 0.8975621662410422, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648357219211 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1645934571034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 19 | 1715657255107 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470411}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226461}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645951655851 | False | 0.9945005922962078 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.028709109129490946 | 6ACImkljaHVI2fyiBYCX | {"NO": 96.55058775350764, "YES": 370.97048272585727} | 0 | will-russia-attack-a-nato-country-b | 1850.7840910719303 | {"NO": 1345.5529662419456, "YES": 74.66294268612421} | Will Russia attack a NATO country before May 2022? | 1651381140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1346, "YES": 75} | 0 | 10.406499308254496 | True | play | NO | public | 1645939225530 | SG | An "attack" is an intentional military strike that results in at least 5 fatalities (of NATO civilians or military officials) or property damage equivalent to $100M USD or more (of NATO property within NATO territory). E.g. Shooting down a single fighter jet over NATO territory probably would not count, but bombing a P... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1399.6608877243254, "YES": 240.76018728177385} | {"creatorFee": 0.20846728773372247, "platformFee": 0.03735818486205448, "liquidityFee": 0.1771036448565137} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 1651423026591 | 100.17710364485652 | SG | 1645939225530 | 0 | 40 | 1650255268308 | 0 | 1 | 1646021257927 | 0.007634099215971578 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01579458262688544 | 3HaXrwh32csXgEfls30g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01579458262688544 | will-russia-stop-delivering-gas-to | 212.73936617634308 | {"NO": 149.94673743161997, "YES": 5.313896392036932} | Will Russia stop delivering gas to Germany before Tuesday? | 1646155584642 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150.6, "YES": 5.4} | 0 | 4.893512047917794 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966493887 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.03060723674818, "YES": 19.51273870757104} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646155584642 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966493887 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 9 | 1715656939173 | 0 | 0.01579458262688544 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.00780495658882176 | cjAsRWXoBwTD8b241U0F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.00780495658882176 | will-russia-have-conquered-kiev-bef | 916.9709150378881 | {"NO": 753.2851896456423, "YES": 31.74389531646971} | Will Russia have conquered Kiev before Thursday? | 1646291475986 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 757.6, "YES": 31.4} | 0 | 4.676828115201716 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966600001 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 781.9605209088544, "YES": 69.35400518768552} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646291475986 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966600001 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 22 | 1715658449850 | 0 | 1646133639702 | 0.00780495658882176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.025356275634471757 | HYVjfKxNrHlVV4FHw5VL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.025356275634471757 | will-there-be-large-scale-blackouts | 157 | {"NO": 149.6, "YES": 7.4} | Will there be large scale blackouts in at least 3 German federal states before April? | 1648799227388 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 149.6, "YES": 7.4} | 0 | 4.890824868325627 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966679209 | Emanuel Rylke | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.99773934154652, "YES": 25.000295998447697} | {"creatorFee": 0.2959999999999998, "platformFee": 0.07399999999999995, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1648799227388 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966679209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 5 | 1715657885677 | 0 | 0.025356275634471757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022268103902207712 | 7ExZZVIV4jVFIpQVOtjI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.022268103902207712 | will-the-german-army-conduct-nontra | 66 | {"NO": 64.6, "YES": 1.4} | Will the German army conduct non-training, non-logistics operations inside a German city before April? | 1646607540000 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 64.6, "YES": 1.4} | 0 | 5.175803388358432 | True | play | NO | public | 1645966992093 | Emanuel Rylke | Mar 7, 6:11am: whoops that closed earlier than I wanted, I guess I can still wait until March ends before I resolve. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 65.26200426733767, "YES": 9.84899994974109} | {"creatorFee": 0.05599999999999991, "platformFee": 0.013999999999999978, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1648799182771 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1645966992093 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 4 | 1715657620806 | 0 | 1 | 0.022268103902207712 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03419538481675645 | s1wRqdP2HN0nTiO6MT2H | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03419538481675645 | will-russia-decide-to-stop-deliveri | 2087.052451190412 | {"NO": 1684.265759943948, "YES": 191.97702524356782} | Will Russia decide to stop delivering gas to Europe before the end of March? | 1648785540000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1690, "YES": 195} | 0 | 4.641413690980771 | True | play | NO | public | 1645973799151 | Gabrielle | A longer term version of https://manifold.markets/EmanuelRylke/will-russia-stop-delivering-gas-to
Only resolves YES if Russia decides to stop the gas, not if the gas stops flowing because of sanctions or because Russian banks are unable to receive payment. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1843.8853122913772, "YES": 346.9548912624105} | {"creatorFee": 7.47790195238354, "platformFee": 1.869475488095885, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648791355555 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1645973799151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 30 | 1715658778085 | 0 | 1 | 1648470615054 | 0.03419538481675645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0033971675563913813 | cdz6A60TEPGZLmNgJa7L | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0033971675563913813 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-f25f932e828a | 6878.600287579395 | {"NO": 5694.084546899789, "YES": 181.31516552081666} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th Eastern Time? | 1647748800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5707, "YES": 129} | 0 | 4.623593850251217 | True | play | NO | public | 1645984161953 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post.
The media outlet ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5865.4123618381245, "YES": 342.44905768459046} | {"creatorFee": 6.98509445695529, "platformFee": 1.7462736142388224, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647755013889 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645984161953 | 0 | 53 | 1715658435902 | 0 | 1 | 1647720447882 | 0.0033971675563913813 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024414733887138326 | ReNNcDercJEIdgpYMJ4a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.024414733887138326 | will-the-atlanta-braves-sign-freddi | 180 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will the Atlanta Braves sign Freddie Freeman to a new contract before the start of the 2022 MLB regular season? | 1647536942523 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.886310747465981 | True | play | NO | public | 1645984760574 | BCG |
Close date updated to 2022-10-06 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-06 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 158.03573963110372, "YES": 25.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0.5, "platformFee": 0.125, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1647536942523 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1645984760574 | 0 | 3 | 1715658177444 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402330}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.024414733887138326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33693958401656177 | THzFYFaRMkabkB3OKwTU | {"NO": 967.4481134449492, "YES": 1050.0504626419204} | 0.3188863997179967 | will-13butanediol-significantly-ext | 235.7931214409085 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1957103940000 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 9.59574966954016 | False | basic | public | 1645985026190 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.9994204810513931, "platformFee": 0.21291175918776634, "liquidityFee": 0.9438104662363521} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | KamilPabis | 1713847523349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 2 | 10 | 1650314603529 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810795}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528560}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve", "ancient-markets"] | 1713847519790 | 1670214757796 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33394326234231864 | euDnxHq7tqAX92jhLHeg | {"NO": 968.7573314681773, "YES": 1048.7377004110854} | 0.3165370537943266 | will-captopril-significantly-extend | 82 | {"NO": 5.000000000000002, "YES": 5} | Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1957103940000 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 9.592376125786892 | False | basic | public | 1645985423985 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 1.0819710762119432, "platformFee": 0.18032851270199055, "liquidityFee": 1.0819710762119432} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | KamilPabis | 1680900132837 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 10 | 1650314694405 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531612}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve", "ancient-markets"] | 1664399807336 | 1680900129614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41247097290167867 | olqhuGmALYCLpZ3hYEcr | {"NO": 77.34197269194982, "YES": 149.74615798768838} | 0 | will-lleucine-significantly-extend | 72.80915229391007 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5} | Will L-Leucine significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601991970 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.882483644503211 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985537603 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.42686184175343, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.7852907247686487, "platformFee": 0.13088178746144147, "liquidityFee": 0.7852907247686487} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601991970 | 100.78529072476864 | KamilPabis | 1670214726933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 7 | 1650314760316 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533965}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1667246380121 | 1670214723586 | 0.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31540296994257305 | piyhXzjCHG5FOsiEapmy | {"NO": 114.84248548631201, "YES": 129.53696030193856} | 0 | will-pb125-significantly-extend-the | 267.29202199267155 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 5} | Will PB125 significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601698324 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.8215229535545583 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985605993 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.696081708607863, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.37874900445338844, "platformFee": 0.06312483407556474, "liquidityFee": 0.37874900445338844} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601698324 | 120.37874900445338 | KamilPabis | 1672147903467 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 8 | 1650314767461 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534392}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1672147903356 | 1670214680783 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4978510985235951 | WzC4KUtvOwjMKHEMUH1Z | {"NO": 65.83675158746382, "YES": 159.80193595600576} | 0 | will-sulindac-significantly-extend | 77.97942637818676 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will Sulindac significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601898934 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.823435804736434 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985718469 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 1.1883842639648818, "platformFee": 0.198064043994147, "liquidityFee": 1.1883842639648818} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601898934 | 101.18838426396488 | KamilPabis | 1670214660361 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 4 | 1650314626705 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810801}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529527}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1667245294419 | 1670214657397 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02286916459933516 | 3CcQ9YcjohwOwybZQU2T | {"NO": 95.8909277456466, "YES": 600.609109913355} | 0 | will-russia-invade-poland-before-th | 1466.9721271505252 | {"NO": 915.2659430959299, "YES": 45.62754685608411} | Will Russia invade Poland before the end of June 2022? | 1656645142892 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 920.5, "YES": 45.5} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985728814 | BCG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 949.8435157701713, "YES": 145.31179019439918} | {"creatorFee": 0.16973820607256584, "platformFee": 0.04243455151814146, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1656645142892 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1656644634386 | 0 | 30 | 1650313786293 | 0 | 1654981764558 | 1656644632507 | 0.003722745969118866 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43083315539164707 | yXsAOWUqprTfy1TlKlhY | {"NO": 89.26063805206795, "YES": 165.42070295265765} | 0 | will-syringaresinol-significantly-e | 298.81635062161735 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will Syringaresinol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601964472 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.575174789506256 | True | play | NO | public | 1645985778213 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0.9438104662363521, "platformFee": 0.15730174437272537, "liquidityFee": 0.9438104662363521} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601964472 | 120.94381046623634 | KamilPabis | 1672147896738 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 7 | 1650315041441 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132810800}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536863}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "us... | ["science-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1672147893223 | 1670214618256 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6374113422103571 | 1hV7iC9dauUXDfCuZzGX | {"NO": 196.89266909324482, "YES": 86.53167837844714} | 1 | will-phase-ii-rapamycinacarbose-sig | 412.67154420489845 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 16} | Will Phase II - Rapamycin/Acarbose significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017) | 1672601920986 | dmcPhpyZbbYWzirO0SoupWCtb4L2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 16} | 0 | 2.7626959107250473 | True | play | YES | public | 1645985840200 | Kamil Pabis | ...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.882535369428375, "YES": 19.774529084152675} | {"creatorFee": 1.0972538911667509, "platformFee": 0.10438677143550282, "liquidityFee": 0.6263206286130168} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672601920986 | 120.62632062861302 | KamilPabis | 1672147914452 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw3R26hld7Ahfi7gA0l8e_dHvwges9lx4oINB1i=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 1650313773818 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1668684729705}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1663089951792}, {"name": "Medicine ", "... | ["science-default", "medicine", "health", "longevity", "please-resolve"] | 1672147913304 | 1667823599631 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012026475184395789 | t9qwxiZjJQ4qu0R4UqMS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.012026475184395789 | will-the-current-russiaukraine-peac | 4227.066578361337 | {"NO": 3884.5760113084325, "YES": 130.35741033023015} | Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in peace? | 1646456340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3885, "YES": 120} | 0 | 4.627495581716269 | True | play | NO | public | 1645992366072 | Gabrielle | Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in ending the war? Resolves YES liberally - if the war has ended within five days after the peace talks end, with even some media recognition that the peace talks contributed to the war ending, then will resolve as YES.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3990.7186391864902, "YES": 440.2989358475883} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1646487179079 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1645992366072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 39 | 1715658803791 | 0 | 1 | 1646240979186 | 0.012026475184395789 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03604179696601919 | PA9baZofXHsOISfJSpj7 | {"NO": 148.05035274574803, "YES": 1144.7520251191202} | 0 | will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc | 5471.832099562069 | {"NO": 1989.1612418041611, "YES": 85.30563383333993} | Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022? | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1990, "YES": 74} | 0 | 8.220493439406258 | True | play | NO | public | 1645993857084 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's not fair that there are/were so many markets about Russians entering Kyiv, but none about Ukrainians entering Moscow. Now there is. See also: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https:/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2032.0201856101503, "YES": 417.50560753701694} | {"creatorFee": 0.7922373246762929, "platformFee": 0.12974523212050554, "liquidityFee": 0.6826196389049319} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672604932948 | 160.68261963890492 | Jenny | 1671680324584 | 0 | 54 | 1650312096262 | 0 | 1 | 52 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664306246536}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664306242732}, {"name": "World", "slug": "... | ["wars", "world-default", "ukraine", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671680324428 | 1664415455687 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13565438899182 | hkGooKHjE1T07UDFojAU | {"NO": 196.02017944263298, "YES": 397.4816119931567} | 0.07183795540776092 | conditional-of-a-nuclear-war-in-202 | 973.8187482836397 | {"NO": 195.6318373656452, "YES": 59} | Conditional on a nuclear war in 2022, will Manifold allow traders to exchange M$ for bottlecaps | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 197, "YES": 59} | 0 | 3.2983079094880052 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645994774542 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if there is no nuclear war in 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if there is a nuclear war, and on Dec 31 I can exchange my M$ for bottlecaps.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 227.17999514311487, "YES": 115.0092677641826} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672607548645 | 220.01352381289453 | Jenny | 1672075463958 | 0 | 31 | 1650314718021 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125148}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663104539153}] | ["nuclear-risk", "fun"] | 1672075463767 | 1666632253075 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0512856466243735 | Co048SXT8rsBoeVkJMWf | {"NO": 2052.3262174146057, "YES": 15838.380842678416} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i | 91007.98708664431 | {"NO": 7480.121385914316, "YES": 797.1388811284141} | Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? | 1672560000000 | a2ZMgkoSxoW9PH90sLFiP6y6qy32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7488, "YES": 811} | 0 | 0.9342880405018592 | True | basic | NO | public | 1645998906505 | Eric Jang | Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7850.720649872288, "YES": 2622.830410178032} | {"creatorFee": 34.915988997450036, "platformFee": 3.540523573669896, "liquidityFee": 19.269423267339175} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1672992873543 | 2280.4072387225924 | EricJang | 1672705715442 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx2InKhVMU6Ww6eTGrwheYzGHXU4BCwlkQhe-aMA=s96-c | 0 | 349 | 1650313849032 | 0 | 2 | 304 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663794516105}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663794483765}, {"name": "Global Macro", "s... | ["global-macro", "world-default", "wars", "nuclear-risk"] | 1672496699045 | 1672705710592 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.948827091387128 | 8cxRazmWDmGRJoZf7Y1G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.948827091387128 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-66604d80c26f | 21863.84122248138 | {"NO": 1717.3232106581281, "YES": 5898.835566860495} | Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 50% for at least 12 hours? | 1646428257163 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 798, "YES": 6454} | 0 | 4.621663621329006 | True | play | YES | public | 1646005669062 | Jenny | This market runs in 2 stages. When you complete a stage, you go to the next stage. When you complete the last stage, the market resolves to YES. If the time runs out, the market resolves NO
1. The probability must stay below 24.5% for a total of 12 hours.
2. The probability must stay at or above 50.5% for a total of 12... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1663.866354162863, "YES": 7432.189348514829} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646428257163 | 100 | Jenny | 1646005669062 | 0 | 19 | 1715657647617 | 0 | 1646410190182 | 0.948827091387128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6015693356628494 | yBm13EA2BDmuxfS5PvKs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6015693356628494 | will-i-see-858b-again-this-week | 18 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 10.500000000000002} | Will I see 858b... again this week? | 1646433584174 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 10.5} | 0 | 6.008916516853325 | True | play | YES | public | 1646012108697 | Austin | Full hash: 858bb193218bd2a87f31fee365dcdf9dfc55f4e2d76e39a3b050cff63b2f20ad | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 10.100049517205347, "YES": 12.41051976147655} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646433584174 | 100 | Austin | 1646012108697 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 3 | 1715658941450 | 0 | 0.6015693356628494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | cSlnK4jXJ2ZTz7FrbHKi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | how-many-messages-will-i-exchange-w | 27 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 8} | How many messages will I exchange with 858b... this week? | 1646639940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 8} | 0 | 5.651188988695374 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646012202614 | Austin | Full hash: 858bb193218bd2a87f31fee365dcdf9dfc55f4e2d76e39a3b050cff63b2f20ad
Each 1% corresponds to 1 message | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.959090147582817, "YES": 12.450542168917787} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646675858993 | 100 | Austin | 1646012202614 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 2 | 1715658430576 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01842968222570273 | JeTB4CeuYeuLdW805U3h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-united-states-federal-gove | 1149.289209707242 | {"NO": 627.8492447657432, "YES": 26.861545527014904} | Will the United States Federal Government freeze bank accounts related to the upcoming Washington, D.C. trucker protester similar to how it happened in Canada this year? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 629.9, "YES": 28.1} | 0 | 9.974657462586222 | True | play | NO | public | 1646012492133 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-02-27/u-s-capitol-barricades-return-as-truckers-head-to-washington
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 648.6506691695118, "YES": 88.88103135254994} | {"creatorFee": 0.02355805787452482, "platformFee": 0.005889514468631205, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1650905650718 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646012492133 | 0 | 16 | 1650313897489 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481397}] | ["politics-default"] | 1650905692182 | 0.01842968222570273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7596608605757665 | YSRHuBjCDgfC88FFCPaj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17 | what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-rus | 225.03446973606617 | {"NO": 43.08830548860118, "YES": 161.87722477533265} | What will 4x the Brier score on #RussiaUkraine questions be on Feb 1st, 2023? | 1676677110545 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 43, "YES": 162} | 3.796480802254971 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646014258689 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will run an API call to get all yes/no markets tagged RussiaUkraine that have been resolved by that date. I will look at the probability assigned by each market at time half-way between creation and end of trading (closing time or resolution time, whichever is sooner), and find the Brier score -... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100.48360327753034, "YES": 178.6458059983497} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1676679977187 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1676679960003 | 0 | 9 | 1650314639263 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1664398912261 | 1676679957684 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.619834861004986 | JXiThATXnt8oyvN65rR4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.24 | what-will-4x-the-brier-score-on-met | 220.08690368107318 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 140} | What will 4x the Brier score on Metaculus Ukraine questions be on Feb 1st, 2023? | 1675227540000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 140} | 2.941556354076303 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646014608593 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will use Metaculus' track record page (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/) to evaluate the Brier score of the Metaculus prediction on all questions with category "Ukraine", where the score is on predictions that are averaged over the life of each question (i.e. choosing the "all t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.6471894305223, "YES": 173.20588904711065} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1676151695624 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1676151658641 | 0 | 3 | 1650313896482 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1667245257174 | 1676151655226 | 0.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014186804528330649 | PgqxbS4vsNll4MdHrvHq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014186804528330649 | will-there-be-a-ceasefire-agreement | 3555.179920349161 | {"NO": 2920.153292458692, "YES": 256.66678719214747} | Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine? | 1647662340000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2942, "YES": 251} | 0 | 4.630734508871411 | True | play | NO | public | 1646015281265 | Charles Vorbach | This market resolves to YES if there is a ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine which ends large scale fighting before March 18th.
Otherwise it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3154.2061147784543, "YES": 378.3859902376526} | {"creatorFee": 9.552184055435804, "platformFee": 2.388046013858951, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791694828 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1646015281265 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 29 | 1715658122734 | 0 | 1 | 0.014186804528330649 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6714966791207926 | iEsU5OFW2bFvEIYxxfwx | {"NO": 142.18097710776084, "YES": 85.56642684827747} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-have-a-better-da870f722a8f | 341.54444625312556 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 110.04868514731848} | Will Manifold markets have a better log score on #RussiaUkraine questions than a 65/35 oracle by Feb 1st 2023? | 1675227540000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 110} | 3.1496361911158504 | True | play | YES | public | 1646016015286 | Daniel Filan | On February 1st 2023, I will run an API call to get all yes/no markets tagged RussiaUkraine that have been resolved by that date (Pacific Time). I will look at the probability assigned by each market at time half-way between creation and end of trading (closing time or resolution time, whichever is sooner), and find th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.560108773156, "YES": 145.0246024533401} | {"creatorFee": 0.6213465507789797, "platformFee": 0.09632003479463402, "liquidityFee": 0.5495907879391322} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1676168011281 | 100.54959078793914 | DanielFilan | 1676168156863 | 0 | 11 | 1650314721783 | 0 | 3 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092119514}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1667245340317 | 1676168154395 | 0.77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7029730147787873 | 2Xs695aq7huotOsrV86S | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-i-get-into-anki-by-the-end-of | 93.26009743043208 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 52.73990256956792} | Will I get into Anki by the end of the year? | 1646629140000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 53} | 0 | 3.3196393187903706 | True | play | NO | public | 1646018117806 | Nuño Sempere | This markets resolves according whether I get into Anki by the end of the year. I am thinking | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 48.36395352429328, "YES": 74.40346623888934} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672530780143 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1672530775517 | 0 | 10 | 1650313780738 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1672530812930 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.748550140262391 | H7DTbxBG15OWpTaXZAmJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-someone-create-a-micronukes-ca | 47.92875778349449 | {"NO": 14, "YES": 32.07124221650551} | Will someone create a micro-nukes calculator by the end of the year? | 1646629140000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14, "YES": 32} | 0 | 3.6825882851282956 | True | play | YES | public | 1646018255624 | Nuño Sempere | Some people in my friends circle are getting quite alarmed, and they seem to be overreacting. But maybe they're right! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.102822828932727, "YES": 39.86114750218937} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672531102987 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1672531101547 | 0 | 7 | 1650313878829 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666827564040}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 1672531139284 | 0.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09865054965204546 | IN5Hby4frN4dJY8kbO5K | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09865054965204546 | will-russia-formally-turn-off-natur | 1040.295634282382 | {"NO": 739.2615042122937, "YES": 162.44286150532434} | Will Russia formally turn off natural gas exports to a European country by April 1st 2022? | 1648791795677 | moJoUWvqlOQd9JCHqard2uULBF43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 740, "YES": 151} | 0 | 4.669059076332905 | True | play | NO | public | 1646021370599 | LateNightCharlie | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 856.073893402556, "YES": 283.21379839007193} | {"creatorFee": 6.497714460212973, "platformFee": 1.6244286150532432, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791795677 | 100 | LateNightCharlie | 1646021370599 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZ1MBg2FF6Lx_56GyWJoukwEirhkqWr9DlxgY1lg=s96-c | 21 | 1715657905580 | 0 | 1647276798911 | 0.09865054965204546 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014761678245459315 | Wcrb7CnXS5ZhI3O9LJfF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014761678245459315 | will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-by-apr | 9539.832431267474 | {"NO": 5949.045078884831, "YES": 224.68741380137817} | Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022? | 1648791765001 | moJoUWvqlOQd9JCHqard2uULBF43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5961, "YES": 184} | 0 | 4.623186073835319 | True | play | NO | public | 1646021530437 | LateNightCharlie | Resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a test, in combat, or for another purpose. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6128.293691747766, "YES": 747.6641401056738} | {"creatorFee": 8.93026861782201, "platformFee": 2.2325671544555026, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648791765001 | 100 | LateNightCharlie | 1646021530437 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZ1MBg2FF6Lx_56GyWJoukwEirhkqWr9DlxgY1lg=s96-c | 82 | 1715658272145 | 0 | 1646569272267 | 0.014761678245459315 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | TjnKAVp4x8aeXKk9gJxM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | on-march-1st-the-politics-community | 100 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | On March 1st, the Politics community will have the most followers. | 1646110800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 60} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646023572492 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the Manifold Markets 'Politics' community has more subscribers than the Manifold Markets 'Science' community at 12:00am ET on March 1st, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 77.46044152081758} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646023642280 | 100 | Athena | 1646023572492 | 0 | 1 | 1715658212806 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488420}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866776}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | False | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1023055869137181 | QeZrxCw5TM6QTqAkHoiu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1023055869137181 | will-the-sp-500-close-2-or-more-on | 1111.7353462290757 | {"NO": 580.2646537709244, "YES": 130} | Will the S&P 500 close +/- 2% or more on February 28th, 2022? | 1646078400000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 600, "YES": 130} | 0 | 4.683103107579477 | True | play | NO | public | 1646023813756 | Athena | This market resolves to "YES" if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 2% or more from its February 25th closing price at 4 PM ET on February 28th, 2022. Price will be checked via Google Finance. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 672.9535294322347, "YES": 227.18020633703318} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196824052 | 100 | Athena | 1646023813756 | 0 | 11 | 1715658152803 | 0 | 1 | 1646074677649 | 0.1023055869137181 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010266119713042657 | LsnoNdSnFvCxbWMcHrqf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010266119713042657 | will-at-least-one-nuclear-strike-hi | 18055.24005986186 | {"NO": 8076.536315431309, "YES": 410.049285535305} | Will at least one nuclear strike hit a city with 100000+ population in February or March 2022? | 1648828853236 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8188, "YES": 410} | 0 | 4.620994534119378 | True | play | NO | public | 1646024285915 | JuJumper | It will be quite clear whether this happened or not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8442.912062783189, "YES": 859.8767561785403} | {"creatorFee": 14.498900056009985, "platformFee": 3.6247250140024962, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648828853236 | 100 | JuJumper | 1646024285915 | 0 | 67 | 1715657996481 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482663}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647470194466 | 0.010266119713042657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | XoDQMOObxfJckNBChIQX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-it-be-possible-to-see-result-o | 100 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | Will it be possible to see result of own past trades on Manifold by 2022-05-01? | 1648850340000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646024931797 | Account deletion requested | Logged in user can see history of action which changed their balance.
I think that cancelling before anyone else appeared is fine? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.46044152081758, "YES": 63.24618565889963} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646027629072 | 100 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1646024931797 | 0 | 1 | 1715658303885 | 0 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7793669801547494 | uN2qWicYgGqcwxUyJ4dd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7793669801547494 | by-20220401-manifold-representative | 188.2894535670246 | {"NO": 17.037913230936194, "YES": 50.672633202039236} | By 2022-04-01 Manifold representative will admit that reward function used as of 2022-02-28 results in silly results for nearly impossible/certain events. | 1646337265692 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 52} | 0 | 5.164982449544845 | True | play | YES | public | 1646025898739 | Account deletion requested | Given odds of troll market or missclick are noticeable
AND return is abyssal for markets at 97% or 10% and someone predicting obviously true event
AND it is necessary to lock up money for some time
there is no incentive to predict that unlikely/certain events like https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-in... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 28.31046862724491, "YES": 61.509112222911895} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646337265692 | 100 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1646025898739 | 0 | 11 | 1715658826763 | 0 | 1646337250484 | 0.7793669801547494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qLwhqqmhmtyXQD0g7xXx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-this-probably-fair-coin-toss-b | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will this probably fair coin toss be heads? | 1646089200000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646034843945 | Undox | Looking at the hash of the first Ethereum mainnet block whose UTC timestamp is within March 2022, the first digit of the hash reading from left after 0x, 0 to 7 is heads and 8 to F is tails.
Example: https://etherscan.io/block/14293340 has hash 0x6c1957a92df7f622514e6ae031919dfbe3c4410451bd616aac96cb67e259e51c, so st... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646075543604 | 100 | Undox | 1646034843945 | 0 | 1 | 1715658731514 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2899867290999771 | 7iH1CrfKIXMrm1rfxlLv | {"NO": 52.86895686235455, "YES": 526.4031544167796} | 0 | will-kane-tanaka-live-to-be-120-yea | 592.5461773649201 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 77.71800116965292} | Will Kane Tanaka live to be 120 years old? | 1650904733321 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 75} | 0 | 3.9063879768613115 | True | play | NO | public | 1646055986951 | LukeW | This market resolves to YES if Kane Tanaka, born 2 January 1903, lives to see her 120th birthday on 2 January 2023. Resolves to NO otherwise.
This market resolves on 2 January 2023 JST (allowing additional time as necessary for confirmation) or at the time of confirmation of Tanaka's death, whichever occurs first. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 188.1187057485999, "YES": 121.08486293430263} | {"creatorFee": 1.4602799470780903, "platformFee": 0.2433799911796817, "liquidityFee": 1.4602799470780903} | {"NO": 0.0008717797887081347, "YES": 0.0004898979485566356} | 0 | 1650904733321 | 101.46027994707809 | LukeW | 1646055986951 | 0 | 9 | 1650313814514 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523388}] | ["science-default"] | 1650904723119 | 0.039403510111911566 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.023703406155613515 | qaxWOrfdAHnnUOzGEmBj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.023703406155613515 | the-vessel-with-imo-8203660-mmsi-62 | 219.30432112456933 | {"NO": 165.69567887543067, "YES": 11} | The Vessel with IMO: 8203660, MMSI: 620558000 will reach its destination at Reni, Ukraine in the next week. | 1646719140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 166, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.863676290198305 | True | play | NO | public | 1646065242276 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/valmiera-mmsi-620558000-imo-8203660
Close date updated to 2022-03-07 11:59 pm
Mar 1, 6:10am: I have no idea what is in the ship, it's just that it's flagged Ukraine and is on the Black Sea. I am interested in creating interesting bets using machine-generated data.
Mar 1, 6:24am... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 174.58996335031938, "YES": 27.204062618315184} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647117131836 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646065242276 | 0 | 10 | 1715658744333 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506550}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534707}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5s... | ["politics-default", "science-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646484214974 | False | 0.023703406155613515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8889824761897541 | BPeTDUiIQhCUCL5HnBxJ | {"NO": 3884.9246559347475, "YES": 78.92776415910518} | 1 | volodymyr-zelenskyy-lives-on-octobe | 5177.058508901624 | {"NO": 206.23736631034282, "YES": 864.619438018544} | Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives on October 1st 2022 | 1664661540000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 209, "YES": 862} | 0 | 6.688841133739407 | True | play | YES | public | 1646067685669 | Arie Arie | This market resolves positively iff president Volodomyr Zelensky still lives at the and of October 1st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 380.218509548359, "YES": 1001.0845728952721} | {"creatorFee": 1.5307434475989028, "platformFee": 0.20613010851560026, "liquidityFee": 1.2367806510936017} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1680209485281 | 121.2367806510936 | ArieArie | 1680209484796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 57 | 1650313840165 | 0 | 1 | 57 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475840}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-reso... | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "please-resolve"] | 1664647302315 | 1680209481378 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8139401966298678 | lKjRl9wMgtkMvVjrTLUx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8139401966298678 | will-i-wake-up-before-10-am-tomorro | 167 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 125} | Will I wake up before 10 am tomorrow? | 1646134200000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.876334643664024 | True | play | YES | public | 1646074593149 | Daniel Filan | I flew from San Francisco to the Bahamas on Saturday. That night, I slept from 1 am to 12 pm, and on Sunday night, I slept from 1 am to 3 am, and then from 6 am to 12 pm. Today is Monday. I'll try using melatonin - 0.3 mg at 5 pm is my plan. The question is, will it work? Resolves YES if I fall asleep before 10 am, wak... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.03529690610014, "YES": 150.66602138720594} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1646161244969 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1646074593149 | 0 | 8 | 1715658618668 | 0 | 1 | 1646083412618 | 0.8139401966298678 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV | im-accepting-m200-from-dreev | 212 | i'm accepting M$200 from dreev | 1646092740000 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.826429610508466 | True | play | 1df806d18bad | public | 1646079753904 | Sam |
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646079903587 | 280 | Cyril | 1646079753904 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "87188c0c7a48", "prob": 0.0022249911000356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.018212023209721505, "userId": "fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.166999688167511, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wujvCBQXD9wRb00lB7XV", "createdTime": 1646079754073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1646079987153 | {"1df806d18bad": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.947260497423322 | ipjbXnOWcys7uiaU3yKr | {"NO": 145.52732051099994, "YES": 98.17912615583127} | 1 | will-manifold-implement-range-marke | 79.75493142360673 | {"NO": 5.589813383188128, "YES": 32.9} | Will Manifold implement "range" markets? | 1653918764065 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.1, "YES": 32.9} | 0 | 9.127249729208833 | True | play | YES | public | 1646081695379 | Sam | I mean something like Metaculus where you design a probability distribution representing the value that a random variable (representing some statistic in the world) would take. It would make it easier to have questions like "How many views will the new Astral Codex post get by April?" or even "When will Kyiv fall?".
I... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.83990063426836, "YES": 37.461965667536404} | {"creatorFee": 0.11913769255470444, "platformFee": 0.01985628209245074, "liquidityFee": 0.11913769255470444} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1653918764065 | 100.1191376925547 | Cyril | 1653752081567 | 0 | 10 | 1650314725374 | 0 | 1653752080294 | 1653741903307 | 0.9637984267219687 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0084487087375551 | 9W0qrpgciECrw2YiJX5o | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0084487087375551 | will-russian-military-aircraft-viol | 2000.9004113368458 | {"NO": 1431.2910238062186, "YES": 45.80856485693562} | Will Russian military aircraft violate Canadian airspace before April 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST? | 1648785540000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1432, "YES": 45} | 0 | 4.648399230267814 | True | play | NO | public | 1646082370813 | littlebubulle | Resolves to YES if Russian military aircraft flies over Canadian Airspace for any reason. Like protecting russian civilian aircraft.
Mar 2, 6:40pm: to anyone wondering why or how would Russia violate Canadian airspace, they almost did it over the arctic circle twice in the last decade. They didn't cross but were 75 km... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1470.847556812027, "YES": 135.7704446819256} | {"creatorFee": 1.8039835465261578, "platformFee": 0.45099588663153944, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648786056966 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1646082370813 | 0 | 25 | 1715657671608 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474017}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226447}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646164353570 | False | 0.0084487087375551 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03723089213154974 | ygjrlCoZM44Gf8rJWTxf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03723089213154974 | will-runes-be-the-topperforming-arc | 5715.59713851576 | {"NO": 4523.1624503038975, "YES": 643.2404111803426} | Will Runes be the top-performing archetype in the alchemy portion of the Neon Dynasty Set Championship? | 1647208187773 | s4U1w2NsTBZPMkj4QoxrxpeFxWg1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4553, "YES": 606} | 0 | 4.62475096990308 | True | play | NO | public | 1646083533349 | Julian | Among archetypes with at least a 10% metagame share in the alchemy portion, I will identify the archetype with the highest non-mirror winrate. Most likely I will rely on the mtgdata winrate matrix published after the tournament to group the decks into archetypes and answer this question, or if not available I will do i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5069.316717464944, "YES": 996.8735516552322} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647208187773 | 100 | Julian5 | 1646083533349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw00-mb6YvyD-SgdCDHeELVL8WVpdRd4tI7KoQR=s96-c | 14 | 1715658956832 | 0 | 1647028495924 | 0.03723089213154974 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18472803697240264 | DWOk480mzqPTLy4yM75M | {"NO": 83.93032509754337, "YES": 487.77832009548007} | 0 | will-any-of-the-top-vtubers-in-the | 1235.6196441189547 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 107} | Will any of the top Vtubers in the list (in description) cease activity by 2023 Jan, 2nd? | 1672664340000 | 8kB6Rw4RPZVyVnXO9ErJv6Yy8sf2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 107} | 0 | 3.9837947496709907 | True | play | NO | public | 1646089354482 | peng Jack | Ranking | Name | Subscriber count| language | organisation |
1 Pekora Ch. 2,134,531 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
2 Marine Ch. 1,802,043 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
3 Aqua Ch. 1,641,062 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
4 Kanata Ch. 1,601,467 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
5 Lamy Ch. 1,486,408 Japanese VTuber-Hololive
6 Kuzuha Channel 1,463,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 140.17565409335532} | {"creatorFee": 1.2026008597051754, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1674580571499 | 200 | pengJack | 1674580580793 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz-Wp6oFPGgEEoyPQ82fZgTKQ3147uMpG_mWfcN=s96-c | 12 | 1650313854927 | 0 | 5 | 14 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672613588517}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime":... | ["entertainment", "please-resolve"] | 1672662865776 | 1674580577610 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3620339111688681 | Zu9hKUVMXul3wYS3jkjr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3620339111688681 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-d2ed6f36be42 | 37.10697063798018 | {"NO": 22.893029362019817, "YES": 12} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on March 1st, 2022? | 1646196912776 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 12} | 0 | 5.495853557573178 | True | play | NO | public | 1646092829035 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on March 1st, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
So far, the base rate is: 1/3 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.870831094415923, "YES": 20.9954771135128} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196912776 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646092829035 | 0 | 6 | 1715658348800 | 0 | 0.3620339111688681 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09270320909450626 | abhDWdbrKdvXIqDEn6gH | {"NO": 214.52390232666613, "YES": 1957.021692610747} | 0 | will-russia-have-won-its-war-with-u | 4112.991866195899 | {"NO": 981.698063554288, "YES": 640.0945178072008} | Will Russia have won its war with Ukraine by the end of the year? | 1672484340000 | wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 991, "YES": 629} | 0 | 4.182496509215157 | True | play | NO | public | 1646096744471 | Samuel Millerick | Will resolve when, in my best judgement, Russia has either won the war or when it has clearly failed to do so. If Russia has not yet won by the end of the year resolves as no. (A draw counts as no.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1388.6896189685262, "YES": 837.7085189458045} | {"creatorFee": 7.009733376577183, "platformFee": 0.566390314107849, "liquidityFee": 2.941322609753616} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1672550105925 | 282.94132260975357 | SamuelMillerick | 1672420482821 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c | 62 | 1650314658666 | 0 | 1 | 59 | [{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065097851}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065096362}, {"na... | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "how-it-ends"] | 1672420482628 | 1649071988956 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006178628010469288 | gocAVkJzRYzMsPSPuwZu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-nato-invoke-article-5-by-april | 1764.1493068034881 | {"NO": 1379.2299138372405, "YES": 19.935014038495993} | Will NATO invoke Article 5 by April 15th? | 1650081540000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1381, "YES": 20} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1646097548838 | cos | This market resolves to "YES" if any of Reuters, the Associated Press, or Agence France-Presse reports that NATO has invoked Article 5 [1] on or before April 15th (11:59 PM EST).
[1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1394.8367675500301, "YES": 109.98038742863973} | {"creatorFee": 0.05669445380961861, "platformFee": 0.014173613452404652, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1652411402464 | 100 | cos | 1646097548838 | 0 | 28 | 1650314710941 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499413}] | ["politics-default"] | 1650867552725 | 0.006178628010469288 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10000000000000002 | x6USqjkwyM9HmGZIq7Zr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.10000000000000002 | will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi | 50 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 5} | Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons by the end of the year? | 1646102101548 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646101991799 | Gabrielle | Feb 28, 9:36pm: Closed as N/A to change the title - created https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 47.435113585823736, "YES": 15.811704528607914} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646102101548 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1646101991799 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 1 | 1715658904473 | 0 | True | 0.10000000000000002 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23826470320310064 | PUcBE4PPh1sIKzYj8h2h | {"NO": 172.71873577295486, "YES": 860.2257915184456} | 0 | will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a | 4541.844859351318 | {"NO": 1630.5298276586332, "YES": 894.1707709610394} | Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1640, "YES": 906} | 0 | 2.061469307261981 | True | play | NO | public | 1646102131369 | Gabrielle | Mar 2, 10:36pm: To clarify, only use as a military technique counts, not as an assassination technique. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2098.0725946364, "YES": 1404.3537836700596} | {"creatorFee": 31.492941636030103, "platformFee": 1.5901902735738371, "liquidityFee": 7.941505284769118} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672556568211 | 325.43975943315706 | Gabrielle | 1672370289358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 53 | 1650314571515 | 0 | 1 | 51 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671064897451}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662317777541}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": ... | ["world-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672370289189 | 1662318111847 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6070126053187945 | ospqBMdDPpIF9B9PlirV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6070126053187945 | will-william-kiely-be-a-top-20-trad | 984.9999999999999 | {"NO": 192.0000000000001, "YES": 365} | Will William Kiely be a Top 20 trader on or before March 27th? | 1647838740000 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192, "YES": 365} | 0 | 4.701010041090505 | True | play | NO | public | 1646103885018 | William Kiely | This market resolves to "YES" if I, William Kiely, reach a Top 20 trader position on the Manifold Markets leaderboard at any point before March 27, 2022 23:59:59 CST, i.e. one month after my site join date. Otherwise it resolves "NO".
To make this interesting, I will not participate in this market myself (with the pos... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 349.17672316579177, "YES": 433.9651253271396} | {"creatorFee": 14.600000000000003, "platformFee": 3.650000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1647843977642 | 100 | WilliamKiely | 1646103885018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 9 | 1715658690393 | 0 | 1 | 1646670529446 | 0.6070126053187945 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.036983158851580794 | w9z60y4gyYd7VJAlI7IU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.036983158851580794 | will-this-market-pool-reach-1m-in-2 | 130 | {"NO": 117.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will this market pool reach 1M in 2022? | 1646625342362 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.939475945196416 | True | play | NO | public | 1646108036493 | Undox | Resolves to YES if I am able to close the market with over 1M poolsize. So if it spikes over 1M quickly it probably wont count unless I am fast on the trigger!
This market is a guess on inflation and riches concentration as well as can I market this market!
Date in UTC
1M as in 1Million
Mar 7, 2:55pm: need money fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 127.57442925896238, "YES": 25.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646625342362 | 100 | Undox | 1646108036493 | 0 | 5 | 1715658869435 | 0 | 0.036983158851580794 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7327066614345992 | hFGapNIiKcY0bDAOyWrJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7327066614345992 | will-a-loophole-in-mm-be-discovered | 89 | {"NO": 23.75, "YES": 25.249999999999993} | Will a loophole in MM be discovered and exploited in 2022 | 1646191883841 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23.75, "YES": 25.25} | 0 | 5.313295339815771 | True | play | YES | public | 1646108377590 | Undox | Will someone find a bug in the math or code and exploit it to steal a large amount of M (at least 10000) and this gets officially reported by MM.
Creating multiple accounts doesn’t count. IRL manipulation of outcomes doesn’t count. Resolving incorrectly doesn’t count.
Hacking into the DB counts, finding some magic n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 25.33372260268909, "YES": 41.94401626084464} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009539392014169457, "YES": 0.0003} | 0 | 1646191883841 | 100 | Undox | 1646108377590 | 0 | 8 | 1715658541720 | 0 | 1646191663812 | 0.7327066614345992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004780663576616596 | yEiC4qoaE2MUWbvEnn8H | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004780663576616596 | will-biden-utter-nuclear-nuke-or-nu | 5570.713185551895 | {"NO": 5009.748652667095, "YES": 295.53816178101044} | Will Biden utter "nuclear", "nuke", or "nukes" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196900896 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5056, "YES": 219} | 0 | 4.624500062286696 | True | play | NO | public | 1646109894149 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "nuclear", "nuke", or "nukes" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5292.59122362722, "YES": 366.82002905469255} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196900896 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646109894149 | 0 | 20 | 1715658943098 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513113}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856970}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.004780663576616596 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008676894670254029 | 6a76k6FNq89RvOo1Cv3Z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.008676894670254029 | will-biden-utter-taiwan-during-the | 1691.1810652789597 | {"NO": 1543.8189347210403, "YES": 89} | Will Biden utter "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196865802 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1548, "YES": 89} | 0 | 4.645273798674273 | True | play | NO | public | 1646109958698 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1625.720597825015, "YES": 152.09693300621907} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196865802 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646109958698 | 0 | 12 | 1715657607486 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471145}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.008676894670254029 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9921738530704158 | xLmO5pqofvFJFTzYP8P2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9921738530704158 | will-biden-utter-world-war-during-t | 1237.0178926666003 | {"NO": 84.29305899445853, "YES": 1110.6890483389411} | Will Biden utter "world war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196842374 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 1115} | 0 | 4.656093631903491 | True | play | YES | public | 1646110081548 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "world war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.71479320615184, "YES": 1190.2978657922426} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196842374 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646110081548 | 0 | 20 | 1715658912167 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512524}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856970}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 1646178477604 | 0.9921738530704158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | RqZ8F2m1ia5K5Z93zFWI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-gregg-abbot-be-reelect3ed-as-g | 101 | {"NO": 60.599999999999994, "YES": 40.400000000000006} | Will Gregg Abbot be reelect3ed as Governor of Texas | 1646111322756 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60.599999999999994, "YES": 40.400000000000006} | 0 | 5.015644091778908 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646111292074 | Scott Owens |
Close date updated to 2023-01-23 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 78.23503819005907, "YES": 63.8786411909333} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646111322756 | 100 | ScottOwens | 1646111292074 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 1 | 1715658180382 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486949}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010808710005016311 | 7e45mJArbFjvTXnPVA6o | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010808710005016311 | will-biden-utter-baltic-during-the | 2522.4106388368446 | {"NO": 2313.299279322443, "YES": 138.2900818407126} | Will Biden utter "Baltic" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196814299 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2317, "YES": 139} | 0 | 4.635306174387559 | True | play | NO | public | 1646111421837 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Baltic" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts.
Mar 1, 12:20am: "Baltics" also counts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2440.38907212006, "YES": 234.0864704016041} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196814299 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646111421837 | 0 | 15 | 1715657630808 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472021}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.010808710005016311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9196748584010647 | 8Vc89EzSfSuChzl7Fqzb | {"NO": 689.1716249789555, "YES": 174.08917482479941} | 1 | will-gregg-abbot-be-governor-of-tex | 2008.3529317486841 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 227.71923627002377} | Will Gregg Abbot be Governor of Texas on January 21, 2023 | 1674367140000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 230} | 0 | 4.325153164645494 | True | play | YES | public | 1646111486417 | Scott Owens | This market is resolved dependent on the holder of the office of the Governor of Texas on January 21,2023 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 59.161389438974474, "YES": 255.97236676138914} | {"creatorFee": 0.18670269331121125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1674367682492 | 200 | ScottOwens | 1674316403946 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 16 | 1650313820126 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472987}] | ["politics-default"] | 1674316403787 | 1646197965184 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9961780386012243 | t4ULfSxGP0ZBoHq6PG2l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9961780386012243 | will-biden-utter-mask-or-masks-duri | 1355 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 1328} | Will Biden utter "mask" or "masks" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | 1646196790256 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 1328} | 0 | 4.651607573021597 | True | play | YES | public | 1646111550271 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "mask" or "masks" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 83.15067047534855, "YES": 1342.4282684748932} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646196790256 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646111550271 | 0 | 8 | 1715658798783 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508597}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.9961780386012243 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038290575604605304 | eFZYorxM0AnuJ6pnWPhF | {"NO": 981.8148468886104, "YES": 1339.3479555557994} | 0.028358944084384014 | this-market-resolves-no | 47266.94481142432 | {"NO": 1082.5005701453474, "YES": 180.33263532193985} | This market resolves NO | 1893473940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1100.3, "YES": 200.7} | 0.1713841173833947 | 4.595119850134597 | False | basic | public | 1646114586510 | Jenny | This market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029. | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18} | 0 | {"NO": 1187.888576858994, "YES": 428.5685003195045} | {"creatorFee": 23.81196924829872, "platformFee": 5.014884331394269, "liquidityFee": 1.3084146974662594} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1000 | Jenny | 1719521964456 | 3.3 | 137 | 1650314688927 | 1 | 83 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078152325}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1669082362652}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"] | 0.2529608186959382 | 1719521961426 | 1692509275271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5094663644824219 | LrzJq81Rd7Eb5f1DhuQz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5094663644824219 | will-a-norm-emerge-that-market-titl | 604.1115894404545 | {"NO": 148.60362292800616, "YES": 161.2847876315393} | Will a norm emerge that market titles be as-objective-as-possible questions? | 1648796340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 148.98000000000002, "YES": 161.01999999999998} | 0 | 4.764477987416843 | True | play | NO | public | 1646114890057 | Daniel Reeves | Lots of markets here are really polls or suggestions. That's creative and valuable and great! The founders encourage it. And market resolution being totally at the discretion of the market creator is Manifold's claim to fame and I think it's brilliant. But I think the headline question should still always be posed as a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 217.04067524661463, "YES": 221.18949356928348} | {"creatorFee": 6.43633642238182, "platformFee": 1.609084105595455, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1648844931858 | 100 | dreev | 1646114890057 | 0 | 14 | 1715657994169 | 0 | 1 | 1647461696098 | 0.5094663644824219 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07134100548923229 | NgVwgvsS4ctz3hdKpLPu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07134100548923229 | time-to-ship-cargo-from-china-to-eu | 775 | {"NO": 624, "YES": 151} | Time to ship cargo from China to Europe more than or equal to 120 days for the last week of March | 1649077442677 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 624, "YES": 151} | 0 | 4.677601719481333 | True | play | NO | public | 1646135823110 | Magnus Hambleton | As measured by Flexport's FEWB metric for the week to April 4th
https://www.flexport.com/research/ocean-timeliness-indicator/
Mar 1, 1:04pm: Currently this stands at 110 days, an all time high. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 746.8448620700286, "YES": 207.00072946876298} | {"creatorFee": 6.04, "platformFee": 1.51, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1649077442677 | 100 | Mag | 1646135823110 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 9 | 1715658061895 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483790}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569180}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 16... | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "china"] | False | 0.07134100548923229 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9868620599460285 | 6lzBj7Fw8T1Awx2o9gFu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9868620599460285 | will-manifold-fix-the-typeerror-on | 73 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 66} | Will Manifold Fix the TypeError on Community Pages When Clicking Edit by the Time This Market Resolves? | 1646227760187 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 66} | 0 | 5.134070758474087 | True | play | YES | public | 1646137388094 | Patrick Delaney | Resolution will be either by a developer or interested party commenting on this or simply by me trying to replicate the error and finding that it no longer exists / still exists after close date.
On this community:
https://manifold.markets/fold/machine-generated-or-real-time-data
When I click, "Edit" to change the ta... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.36743692536729, "YES": 72.519873140402} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646227760187 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646137388094 | 0 | 9 | 1715657609234 | 0 | 1646167367909 | 0.9868620599460285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9267459213166034 | AoBVWqkib9icRCss2cWM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9267459213166034 | will-anyone-besides-myself-attempt | 102 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 74} | Will anyone besides myself attempt to put together a bet based upon Machine Generated data by March 15th, 2022? | 1647406740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 74} | 0 | 5.047250078798447 | True | play | YES | public | 1646138028634 | Patrick Delaney | Title is self explanatory. See Community Tagged for examples.
This does not include stock market or financial product bets, but rather data from some kind of machine tracking, streaming data such as weather, GPS tracking, satellite information, or something interesting and extremely niche that perhaps only the market... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24.90052209894403, "YES": 88.56719483081758} | {"creatorFee": 0.7199999999999992, "platformFee": 0.1799999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1647609713558 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646138028634 | 0 | 6 | 1715657719289 | 0 | 1 | 1647404390698 | 0.9267459213166034 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01101273032501102 | xG4ddgOelYm9KYPniJvo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01101273032501102 | will-the-twitter-account-putinjet-p | 45.87549222504916 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 2.6187524484540923} | Will the Twitter Account @PutinJet produce any meaningful evidence by the end of March, 2022 that it has in fact tracked a single airplane on which Putin was in, while he was in fact in it at the time of tracking? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 2} | 0 | 5.385025656813547 | True | play | NO | public | 1646138534344 | Patrick Delaney | https://twitter.com/PutinJet
This market will resolve at the end of March, CST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 42.384422829236556, "YES": 4.472583168595079} | {"creatorFee": 0.10475009793816327, "platformFee": 0.026187524484540817, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648868918394 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1646138534344 | 0 | 4 | 1715658907130 | 0 | 1 | 0.01101273032501102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5714961885904396 | NS2ddlnefvBNiN8UYYD8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-ukraine-control-both-kyiv-and | 304.4437585019267 | {"NO": 144.0562414980733, "YES": 149.5} | Will Ukraine control both Kyiv and Odessa on October 1st? | 1646780340000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 144.5, "YES": 149.5} | 0 | 2.830462683043767 | True | play | YES | public | 1646144505357 | Arie Arie | This market will resolve as true if an independent state called "Ukraine" controls the cities of Kyiv and Odessa on October 1st 2022.
- Ukraine must not be an obvious puppet of Russia.
- If one or both cities is divided or under active dispute, Ukraine must control Mariinskyi Palace in Kyiv and Odessa City Hall. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.163164799818, "YES": 221.9215449884849} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1681361146414 | 100 | ArieArie | 1681361099674 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 12 | 1650314557095 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662754422668}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662754420852}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukra... | ["ukraine", "russia", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1681361096784 | False | 0.57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | IGu48nF6pTdXEJzCqaIO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | semiconductor-shortage-becomes-was | 105 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 50} | Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in March than in January, as measured by import prices. | 1646148694669 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.003052247763852 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646145012782 | Magnus Hambleton | Import Price Index by Origin (NAICS): Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for Industrialized Countries as measured by FRED. If February numbers are higher than January, then this resolves to Yes. If February is equal to or lower than January, this resolves to No
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.62158205357579, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646148694669 | 100 | Mag | 1646145012782 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 2 | 1715657902909 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567890}] | ["economics-default"] | 1646148626450 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016307586043953628 | ZUusR7v0wnJ71BiqHLTD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016307586043953628 | will-there-be-a-nato-nofly-zone-in | 7658.5987406136355 | {"NO": 3936.315259798335, "YES": 260.4911442715995} | Will there be a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine during March 2022? | 1648767540000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4000, "YES": 260} | 0 | 4.626962521583719 | True | play | NO | public | 1646147983893 | Pontifex Minimus | Resolves YES if one or more NATO countries institute a no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine during some or all of March 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4162.446844885692, "YES": 535.9371701583748} | {"creatorFee": 7.896050375454601, "platformFee": 1.9740125938636504, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1649436385780 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1646147983893 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 49 | 1715658338642 | 0 | 1 | 1646243720725 | 0.016307586043953628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006345841976879506 | E0TLOQF3bb9v2OhuqYi4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.006345841976879506 | will-nato-troops-fight-in-ukraine-d | 908.611620031367 | {"NO": 868.6711800087547, "YES": 25.17269293449135} | Will NATO troops fight in Ukraine during March 2022? | 1648767540000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 869, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.669520483072766 | True | play | NO | public | 1646148148214 | Pontifex Minimus | Resolves YES if one or more NATO countries have troops fighting in Ukraine during March 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 891.0042600932182, "YES": 71.20439159675712} | {"creatorFee": 0.9937549177298388, "platformFee": 0.2484387294324597, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1649436353364 | 100 | PontifexMinimus | 1646148148214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 18 | 1715657801940 | 0 | 1 | 0.006345841976879506 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.973481140057567 | Sha7Q5Qc9n5OFFIRQ61u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.973481140057567 | semiconductor-shortage-becomes-was-0ab4bf645d9a | 1237.2475818430366 | {"NO": 78.0188586320732, "YES": 594.7335595248902} | Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in February than in January, as measured by import prices. | 1647471540000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 620} | 0 | 4.686758378015528 | True | play | YES | public | 1646148734074 | Magnus Hambleton | Import Price Index by Origin (NAICS): Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for Industrialized Countries as measured by FRED. If February numbers are higher than January, then this resolves to Yes. If February is equal to or lower than January, this resolves to No
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.55528622537415, "YES": 663.7731547011783} | {"creatorFee": 3.200732718925399, "platformFee": 0.8001831797313498, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647511650539 | 100 | Mag | 1646148734074 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 15 | 1715658194675 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570328}] | ["economics-default"] | 1647452743053 | 0.973481140057567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4456918211097959 | Y92q6hlbdYgPGV3PFl1g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4456918211097959 | will-a-majortriplea-game-engine-sup | 1001.5619200602002 | {"NO": 350, "YES": 258.43807993979976} | Will a major/Triple-A game engine support "geometric algebra" operations out-of-the-box by January 2026? | 1646783940000 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 350, "YES": 255} | 0 | 4.694033374116986 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646152809682 | Hamish Todd | This market resolves to "YES" if any triple-A game engine (eg Unity, Snowdrop, Frostbyte, Unreal Engine, id Tech, CryEngine) fully supports geometric algebra operations, such as those described in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4H_ctggYo
The definition of support is the relatively mild requirement that ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 452.9943072476894, "YES": 406.1948689966135} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007874007874011811, "YES": 0.0006164414002968976} | 0 | 1646819189069 | 100 | HamishTodd | 1646152809682 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 7 | 1715658315725 | 0 | 1 | 1646245058225 | 0.4456918211097959 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37551009212905273 | DbQ4IBuhaFpYeBoP263d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.37551009212905273 | will-there-be-another-pandemic-with | 178 | {"NO": 112, "YES": 64} | Will there be another pandemic with as much impact on the world as SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 2029? | 1646194835489 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 112, "YES": 64} | 0 | 4.864543334685958 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646155489648 | Andy Martin | This market resolves YES if there is another pandemic that's as impactful on the world as SARS-CoV-2 that's caused by a virus other than SARS-CoV-2 before January 1, 2030.
(SARS-CoV-2 variants do not count.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.55724273802494, "YES": 107.2386497507312} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008, "YES": 0.0006} | 0 | 1646194835489 | 100 | AndyMartin | 1646155489648 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 5 | 1715657791892 | 0 | 1646194830168 | 0.37551009212905273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2269147888375028 | rSJc1mmPse9b1PCB6NKY | {"NO": 91.66371869805367, "YES": 138.595771058067} | 0 | will-the-evidence-linked-below-this | 847.0848887960707 | {"NO": 509.2109056139044, "YES": 166.61273029691222} | Will the evidence linked below this market change how I feed my vegetarian toddler? | 1651359600000 | 4OrOE700Upe1pqoXXGfXvVVifVX2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 510, "YES": 168} | 0 | 3.953279836625873 | True | play | NO | public | 1646156057103 | micheal | My 15month old daughter has a vegetarian diet, but I'm open to the possibility that we should feed her more meat/dairy/supplements than we currently do since the lack of protein or other nutrients might have LT cognitive or health consequences.
Current diet:
lots of pasta/rice/bread/potatoes/fruit/butter/yogurt, so... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 594.1651639438466, "YES": 322.0352410211802} | {"creatorFee": 0.3728854714027767, "platformFee": 0.06491919014167755, "liquidityFee": 0.33962613250819973} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1651582458595 | 100.3396261325082 | micheal | 1646156057103 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_LXQhTNp6qG9hkUYlLkT5TGKVh70HHVQRand-JA=s96-c | 17 | 1650314778528 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534856}, {"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1659617474577}] | ["science-default", "parenting"] | 1651353803877 | 1651332264897 | 0.1625671907247771 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0591652976827203 | 0SPMdjJZRAZwIjuSx3t7 | {"NO": 111.68873439620813, "YES": 411.50963954423946} | 0 | will-putin-invade-any-nato-countrie | 2074.8727450730244 | {"NO": 702.3942506548614, "YES": 105} | Will Putin invade any NATO countries in 2022? | 1672444800000 | dB6s3OdVBhXU9StosDE3yXiuwjy2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 714, "YES": 105} | 0 | 9.595067525190217 | True | play | NO | public | 1646161253268 | S4V | Resolves yes if there are any boots on the ground.
Mar 1, 7:02pm: airspace violations do not count, shooting down aircraft also won't count, only a land invasion.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 779.357756879016, "YES": 210.92315561012913} | {"creatorFee": 0.5888788867356528, "platformFee": 0.0981464811226088, "liquidityFee": 0.5888788867356528} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672499847121 | 120.58887888673564 | S4vs4v | 1671638965125 | 0 | 27 | 1650313767638 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1671638963898 | 1646162270378 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9908587469105876 | 0cr2U8RSS0Zq2ZKRVP0x | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9908587469105876 | how-much-will-be-pledged-to-the-a-y | 832.3432461888766 | {"NO": 57.686878714668296, "YES": 731.9698750964551} | How much will be pledged to the "A Year of Sanderson" Kickstarter? | 1648767710192 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 732} | 0 | 4.6764775793075914 | True | play | YES | public | 1646162390649 | Nathaniel Lovin | Brandon Sanderson launched a Kickstarter campaign today to release four novels in 2023. Currently, ~$5,000,000 has been pledged to the campaign.
This question will resolve to the amount of hundreds of thousands of dollars pledged to the campaign (rounded up/down), minus 25. For example, if the campaign closed at this... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.49909933615103, "YES": 786.0402369811986} | {"creatorFee": 2.3062701524449336, "platformFee": 0.5765675381112334, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007549834435270751, "YES": 0.0006557438524302001} | 0 | 1648767710192 | 100 | NathanielLovin | 1646162390649 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 15 | 1715656876715 | 0 | 1646283199210 | 0.9908587469105876 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7030637515647846 | lH6nejQzAzPzvftsEA8Y | {"NO": 34.292464731459184, "YES": 163.2957937383355} | 0 | will-i-get-pregnant-before-elena | 304.2757462904226 | {"NO": 59, "YES": 95.5474313380513} | Will I get pregnant before Elena? | 1664693940000 | c0g1rqIEh8b7V3GvcSaHip3h6Yq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 59, "YES": 96} | 0 | 3.5504494966763223 | True | play | NO | public | 1646163759907 | spiracular | Related: https://manifold.markets/Elena/will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34
I am not currently pregnant, but I am going to be trying.
The time of pregnancy is assessed as "first positive pregnancy test."
(with no backstrapolation to ovulation or implantation)
Mar 2, 1:15pm: Resolves when one of us gets a positive preg... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 84.04235837064545, "YES": 129.70003711854656} | {"creatorFee": 1.3684466832449318, "platformFee": 0.2280744472074887, "liquidityFee": 1.3684466832449318} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1675979320464 | 101.36844668324494 | spiracular | 1664690671751 | 0 | 18 | 1650314738275 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1664690671648 | 1646279698149 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038569601949154396 | eh7zy7yhezv0FyK9FZwt | {"NO": 203.21145073630802, "YES": 1265.183596842732} | 0 | will-the-bayesian-conspiracy-discor | 1724.376225415021 | {"NO": 35.632046729625095, "YES": 5.683565813587123} | Will The Bayesian Conspiracy Discord be banned before March 1, 2023? | 1677733140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 6} | 0 | 10.417111441232692 | True | play | NO | public | 1646166043513 | Garrett Baker | Banned = nobody is able to comment in it.
Mar 1, 4:04pm: ... against the will of the server owners, and if Discord shuts down, it's also a yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 40.023725177771986, "YES": 10.254944901855968} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677733700017 | 220 | GarrettBaker | 1677716678741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 15 | 1650314692959 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1677716678612 | 1646168729319 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7 | where-will-be-the-most-popular-sche | 22.30044388103616 | Where will be the most popular Schelling point to receive information regarding The Bayesian Conspiracy Discord if it gets banned in the next year? | 1677733140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.1239061085877085 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646166328832 | Garrett Baker | Resolves to N/A if not banned. I will put out a survey if it re-congregates somewhere, asking people where they heard about the move.
Mar 2, 8:05am: @Martin recently Discord released a new policy on banning those who spread “harmful misinformation” among other stuff. Depending on how broad a definition they use, it’s ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678153395371 | 300 | GarrettBaker | 1646166328832 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2ad1cdff5f2e", "prob": 0.5327279627581093, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.83493385644796, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 61.25436262967856, "textFts": "", "contractId": "X1q6m7fl1jLF7T28sve7", "createdTime": 1646166328998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 3 | 1646220361191 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11842051166981292 | mck4Yr40mQY4rnmcUASm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11842051166981292 | will-putin-get-killed-by-2022 | 4574.57621140236 | {"NO": 2868.42378859764, "YES": 1093} | Will Putin get killed by 2022? | 1646436566770 | o2mr4sGLvaVvBvxd4CGPPJCRUkY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2894, "YES": 1093} | 0 | 4.627661675249199 | True | play | NO | public | 1646167046280 | Nikola | Meaning the end of 2022
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am
Mar 2, 10:44am:
1 Starting to look real good https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4bm7n/russian_entrepreneur_puts_a_1000000_bounty_on/
Mar 5, 1:28am: I don't care anymore. Take all the money. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3719.4793619397533, "YES": 1363.2166488933801} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646436566770 | 100 | niki | 1663078208785 | 0 | 28 | 1715658649261 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504181}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661917400243}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "s... | ["politics-default", "improperly-resolved", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1663078205000 | False | 0.11842051166981292 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4400062229391418 | ZhrRhoa1IFFWSE1RFT4c | {"NO": 70.80009768340413, "YES": 158.11462556465298} | 0 | will-i-get-a-4th-covid-vaccine-befo | 324.37076204572924 | {"NO": 101.16751844283357, "YES": 98} | Will I get a 4th COVID vaccine before the end of August 2022? | 1662004740000 | FX8JTczvl7NejJmqB4DVO5NgR1X2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 101, "YES": 98} | 0 | 2.876570278573837 | True | play | NO | public | 1646167707523 | Bayesian Philosopher | I am a mid-20's male who lives in the United States. I got the first three vaccines in Feb, March, and November 2021. I intend to get a 4th vaccine approximately as soon as it is allowed and convenient, and I am convinced my risks from the vaccine (Myocarditis, unknown long-term risks, etc.,) are less than my risk (o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.04320576523554, "YES": 132.114425987229} | {"creatorFee": 1.2173520324243845, "platformFee": 0.0687615440115513, "liquidityFee": 0.41256926406930783} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1672266323904 | 100.4125692640693 | BayesianPhilosopher | 1662000051621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwhr0P01elPDQx93GRYMErBtr8HdMixiP1N8p1v=s96-c | 21 | 1650314649717 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1662000051444 | 1646230269536 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5422362425966606 | Pe5w8AJ97zD1o3qatNd7 | {"NO": 107.2190800008149, "YES": 174.29589127645139} | 0 | will-i-manage-at-least-1-fte-by-the | 125.59649800304533 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 20.5} | Will I manage at least 1 FTE by the end of the year? | 1672531293037 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 2.205740476914512 | True | play | NO | public | 1646168401447 | Nuño Sempere | Managing more than one person would count as long as they add up to at least 1 FTE (40h/week). Contractors would count, people funded independently would also count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24.749444448310346, "YES": 28.83645263377588} | {"creatorFee": 0.23060039320038578, "platformFee": 0.038433398866730965, "liquidityFee": 0.23060039320038578} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672531293037 | 140.2306003932004 | NuñoSempere | 1672531282829 | 0 | 7 | 1650314572985 | 0 | 8 | 1672531282681 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018920070927315177 | Rs5pNLa5BcgfQMPBTatU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-a-us-city-be-nuked-by-the-end | 356.00644851285017 | {"NO": 345.0935514871498, "YES": 8.9} | Will a US city be nuked by the end of the year? | 1646801940000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 345.1, "YES": 8.9} | 0 | 9.948249930413429 | True | play | NO | public | 1646168522366 | Nuño Sempere | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 350.62975894633354, "YES": 48.6920386082201} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773} | 0 | 1672531117047 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1646168522366 | 0 | 19 | 1650314593626 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666827558036}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 1646732429824 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8488098285971785 | WFUSbouuwq7OWF0dmpG6 | {"NO": 121.97281897370988, "YES": 96.89494056028083} | 1 | will-quri-receive-a-grant-from-the | 58 | {"NO": 5.500000000000001, "YES": 30.5} | Will QURI receive a grant from the SFF in the first half of this year? | 1654888733328 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.500000000000001, "YES": 30.5} | 0 | 5.3951499598555115 | True | play | YES | public | 1646168645014 | Nuño Sempere | Grant amount does not matter.
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 14.000392856987983, "YES": 33.16716751322006} | {"creatorFee": 0.16308615774076432, "platformFee": 0.027181026290127388, "liquidityFee": 0.16308615774076432} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1654888733328 | 100.16308615774076 | NuñoSempere | 1654673278909 | 0 | 3 | 1650314622325 | 0 | 1654673277639 | 0.8760416082623792 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47005376615255295 | n7EI0bLSZ1mquevdy9TH | {"NO": 214.36651138239546, "YES": 81.48841705322783} | 1 | will-i-become-significantly-more-me | 847.6494820991242 | {"NO": 228.60760333800496, "YES": 211.6} | Will I become significantly more mellow by the end of the year? | 1672531233031 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 227.4, "YES": 211.6} | 0 | 2.325495161984213 | True | play | YES | public | 1646168905900 | Nuño Sempere | I've long been a fan of biting criticism, speaking plainly, and calling out bullshit. Will I adopt a significantly different approach by the end of the year? Question resolves according to my own judgment.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 324.36120491226586, "YES": 297.6128747226168} | {"creatorFee": 1.3329457979752062, "platformFee": 0.22215763299586772, "liquidityFee": 1.3329457979752062} | {"NO": 0.00058309518948453, "YES": 0.000812403840463596} | 0 | 1672531233031 | 141.33294579797519 | NuñoSempere | 1672539060360 | 0 | 31 | 1650314751456 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1672521534569 | 1672539057798 | 0.7 |
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