CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.7260812491817018

9j3v92bQMYBFVbNESeLS

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7260812491817018

will-chirag-do-a-backflip-by-202203

1400.8390119710689

{"NO": 291.1609880289312, "YES": 796}

Will Chirag do a backflip by 2022-03-04T23:59:59?

1646427540000

9nv3186FtzcKETAINoqTkqwyrmk2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 315, "YES": 796}

0

4.660065358206264

True

play

NO

public

1646168942579

jall

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 568.9906637560379, "YES": 926.3750929151114}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285}

0

1646431506544

100

jall

1646168942579

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8sIGq5p1EdxdUCnFcT30qR-_OUmncuVLHf8R7gw=s96-c

10

1715657679427

0

1

0.7260812491817018

0.9598684099377214

0jgdN2hJQc2TxEWYArmF

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9598684099377214

will-russia-lose-more-than-600-piec

390

{"NO": 45, "YES": 265}

Will Russia lose more than 600 pieces of military vehicles and equipment by March 15, 2022?7

1646423441643

QJLcvRf78TeoafY4gUqdKLmk6f32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 45, "YES": 265}

0

4.764428125507257

True

play

YES

public

1646172016915

Ryan Wismer

This will resolve YES if the total Russian equipment losses as documented by Stijn Mitzer on https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html exceed 600 items by 5PM EST on March 15. Numbers at question release: Russia - 377, of which: destroyed: 164, damaged: 8, abandoned: 89, captured: 116

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 58.0955247897805, "YES": 304.50866982797055}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

0

1646423441643

100

RyanWismer

1646172016915

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyDzLMHg0ywZ0p9T6VxRbnIISRmy2ByaoJh6XfFMM=s96-c

7

1715656880733

0

1646423425421

0.9598684099377214

0.20661194590209003

1utQCZSQ2HiYwtMKVpdg

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.20661194590209003

will-sydney-get-150mm-rainfall-toda

110

{"NO": 85, "YES": 25}

Will Sydney get 150mm rainfall today?

1646193540000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 85, "YES": 25}

0

4.988396119230901

True

play

NO

public

1646175346422

Undox

Wednesday 2nd March 2022 (day in progress!) Will read off from Observatory Hill on http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/rainfall/observations/index.shtml Close date updated to 2022-03-02 2:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 97.98045723893108, "YES": 50.0005}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1646250546954

100

Undox

1646175346422

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

1715656906817

0

1

[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648207902}]

["australia"]

1646188378891

0.20661194590209003

0.95

g7L2NCgdOMVOdhT9OWAL

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.95

will-betteridges-law-of-headlines-h

120

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 115}

Will Betteridge's law of headlines hold for Halstead's talk today?

1646176600348

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 115}

0

4.962203626998809

True

play

YES

public

1646175976708

Nuño Sempere

Mar 1, 6:06pm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 117.89923664277899}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}

0

1646176600348

100

NuñoSempere

1646175976708

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

1

1715658513803

0

0.95

0.6015993344041473

jJEpqzw6AS6AwyFEwKIz

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6015993344041473

will-spacex-launch-axiom-mission-1

126

{"NO": 56, "YES": 70}

Will SpaceX launch Axiom Mission 1 before the end of the month?

1648472127076

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 56, "YES": 70}

0

4.9481968456462715

True

play

NO

public

1646177224993

Multicore

This market resolves YES if SpaceX launches a Crew Dragon spacecraft into orbit, and describes it as Axiom Mission 1, before March 31, 2022 at 11:59 PM EST. Axiom Mission 1 is a commercial mission to the ISS. It is currently scheduled to launch on March 30, but has seen numerous delays since its annoucement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_Mission_1 Mar 3, 8:58am: The market can resolve NO early if SpaceX publicly delays the launch date past the end of March.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 80.47429403542475, "YES": 96.95431914308925}

{"creatorFee": 2.800000000000001, "platformFee": 0.7000000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648472127076

100

Multicore

1646177224993

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

3

1715658571679

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452886}]

["technology-default"]

1648472122209

0.6015993344041473

0.5

NQQwyvsTmLzaMthyddL6

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

i-will-buy-1000m-for-5

12.000000000000002

{"NO": 4.999999999999998, "YES": 5}

I will buy 1000M for $5

1646406522473

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646180995749

Undox

Drop 1000 on yes, I will resolve no then arrange on discord to get your money via paypal. Any interference trades will either lose or be refunded. Mar 2, 11:29am: If you drop 1000 then someone bets no i will resolve yes and you win their silly bet.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646406522473

100

Undox

1646180995749

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

1715658047408

0

1646254588644

0.5

0.9963756589658039

wDm75hgc93nVikTxTcGE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9963756589658039

will-biden-utter-xi-during-the-stat

1392.3904804528906

{"NO": 44.53277912056021, "YES": 1103.0767404265491}

Will Biden utter "Xi" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022?

1646196749757

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 37, "YES": 1126}

0

4.657748701011576

True

play

YES

public

1646181412354

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Xi" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 69.08902256939389, "YES": 1145.528965821289}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646196749757

100

MatthewBarnett

1646181412354

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

8

1715658870973

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511458}, {"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1660934561033}]

["politics-default", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"]

1646188009899

0.9963756589658039

DKcoAsBP019POw4zDCIi

which-beeminder-featureproject-will

6916.127888459904

Which Beeminder feature/project will have the highest ROI?

1651388340000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6259103735748734

True

play

658c18defeb7

public

1646181474365

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the absence of a better way to estimate this, we'll go by what we decide to do first.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 110.49085057459412, "platformFee": 27.62271264364853, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1651449190998

979.9999999999998

dreev

1646181474365

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

19

0

ANYONE

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Right now, searching this is a Trivial Inconvenience.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "htxzdBhB4kVrsJSot2eLb8GjM6i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'d':4 'engag':7 'explain':10 'featur':12 'get':5 'got':15 'inconveni':23 'right':16 'search':18 'think':2 'trivial':22 've':14", "contractId": "DKcoAsBP019POw4zDCIi", "createdTime": 1646241164596, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.408", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651449190000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d0fc08cfd45d", "prob": 0.0004136843748754825, "text": "An unlisted feature", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0007106644782679594, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7171798854896074, "textFts": "'featur':3 'unlist':2", "contractId": "DKcoAsBP019POw4zDCIi", "createdTime": 1650381314527, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.408", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651449190000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03493334721170741, "probChangeMonth": 0}]

1

[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383040653}]

["beeminder"]

1651210696718

1651387638721

{"658c18defeb7": 100}

True

0.01439763443746668

8R6rvaCqLBHu8HGVpp9F

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.01439763443746668

will-biden-utter-cold-war-during-th

602.279074782426

{"NO": 478.66054872574676, "YES": 41.06037649182713}

Will Biden utter "cold war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022?

1646196659970

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 489, "YES": 37}

0

4.7068906445870375

True

play

NO

public

1646181766978

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "cold war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 515.9669774806245, "YES": 62.36150817106892}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646196659970

100

MatthewBarnett

1646181766978

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

6

1715657643211

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472771}]

["politics-default"]

0.01439763443746668

wUAeXNFi5RezsAPL0tWc

which-film-will-win-filmspotting-ma

90.30186617427675

Which film will win Filmspotting Madness 2022?

1650059200269

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0642231203014525

True

play

ceee7a628c3

public

1646183084935

CompmanJX3

Which film will win Filmspotting Madness 2022: Best of the 1970's? https://www.filmspotting.net/madness64

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.82792535302893, "platformFee": 0.4569813382572325, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1650059200269

400

CompmanJX3

1646183084935

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

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{"ceee7a628c3": 100}

True

0.8040473771058566

jPYasNPSNMOLXMouGGp8

{"NO": 1394.4127902716125, "YES": 62.500280069586324}

1

will-chesa-boudin-be-recalled-by-sf

1956.2200281641005

{"NO": 100, "YES": 221}

Will Chesa Boudin be recalled by SF voters in 2022?

1654671540000

sTZZ0ryeHcaWTATKEQudRAkkhnJ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 221}

0

4.962362156187586

True

play

YES

public

1646185296953

Tim Holme

This market resolves to "YES" if, within 4 weeks of the election, the SF Chronicle declares that Chesa Boudin lost the recall election

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.42206334409067, "YES": 288.16912048396165}

{"creatorFee": 7.412099387316085, "platformFee": 1.2353498978860145, "liquidityFee": 7.412099387316085}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1654740355897

107.41209938731609

TimHolme

1654709562377

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggrf9IwXRxw7yL4AYPbrHq0_l7yhr4PA7QAV4PBcwo=s96-c

16

1650314727752

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501763}]

["politics-default"]

1654664548061

1654709560645

0.9891945769715145

2im97FurBjUi25XeF4ID

test-77571182dadc

12

Test

1646207940000

QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2

cpmm-multi-1

0

6.224558429275356

True

play

MKT

public

1646189164145

Gustavo Lacerda

however I want

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646213325174

260

GustavoLacerda

1646189164145

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

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1

{"1cce8b427c25": 47.72727272727273, "d2356b55c41f": 52.272727272727266}

True

0.17926869614347749

T0DZRfxeiyrTH7oMfFaX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.17926869614347749

will-i-donate-10-to-wikipedia-in-ma

235

{"NO": 136, "YES": 99}

Will I donate $10 to Wikipedia in March 2022?

1648796340000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 136, "YES": 99}

0

4.807650888826203

True

play

NO

public

1646190826802

Oleg S

I will donate $10 to Wikipedia foundation in March if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $10. If you want to indirectly donate your $M to Wikipedia, buy NO. Apr 2, 8:13am: Resolving as NO because payout if YES ($M228-$M100 ante = $M128) is below what could be bought by $10 ($M1000) See also an extension: https://manifold.markets/OlegStroganov/will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 212.89732736699634, "YES": 99.49973869809911}

{"creatorFee": 3.9600000000000013, "platformFee": 0.9900000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1648914839130

100

OlegStroganov

1646190826802

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c

5

1715658200778

0

1

0.17926869614347749

Fyc0SbCoJmCauB3cxnUX

what-is-the-best-charity-to-donate

276

What is the best charity to donate to?

1648796340000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.781339644595356

True

play

MKT

public

1646190989955

Oleg S

I will donate $50 to each of 3 charities which score the top Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm Mar 1, 7:16pm: I'll make donation in April. If there is a tie, I'll break it at random. Apr 2, 8:21am: Resolved and donated $50 to GiveWell (donation ID ahy6x9vp), $50 to Against Malaria Foundation (https://www.againstmalaria.com/MyNets.aspx?DonationID=873238), and $50 to GiveDirectly (donation ID 801c9ca7506366f8)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.6000000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1500000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648914404632

580

OlegStroganov

1646190989955

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

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1

{"189145a2a6b7": 31.278173883371355, "31f6044f24b2": 39.66343995258707, "73b84564044e": 29.05838616404159}

True

0.26816934629436223

utjXLPnM2ryXX93loEjA

{"NO": 105.00000305340865, "YES": 87.53357061878776}

0.29

ukraine-gdp-loss-in-2022-relative-t

40.235422978820736

{"NO": 23, "YES": 11}

Ukraine % GDP loss in 2022, relative to 2021.

1672559940000

QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 23, "YES": 11}

0

3.5360136411627288

True

play

MKT

public

1646192299376

Gustavo Lacerda

If GDP rises, it resolves to 0%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 29.086869905508912, "YES": 17.607441611432368}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1690659524031

100

GustavoLacerda

1680902431189

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c

4

1650314798043

0

42

5

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071993}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225542}]

["please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1667246388466

1680902428176

False

0.29

0.25618482460887443

PebGlclmlrXLYtAfBCHF

{"NO": 100.00000000000011, "YES": 100.00000000000007}

0.02

russias-gdp-loss-in-2022-relative-t

239.31724887889393

{"NO": 9, "YES": 2}

Russia's % GDP loss in 2022, relative to 2021.

1672559940000

QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 9, "YES": 2}

0

3.6375337051377836

True

play

MKT

public

1646192385441

Gustavo Lacerda

If GDP rises, it resolves to 0%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 9.487781663803188, "YES": 5.56812357082707}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1690659556440

100

GustavoLacerda

1680902446108

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c

3

1650314573312

0

42

3

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072202}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225543}]

["please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1667245272746

1680902441371

False

0.02

Ub2RadG7cq6UzdStM7mk

what-number-am-i-thinking-110

195.03874171677637

What number am I thinking? 1-10

1647369303999

qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.003173409136055

True

play

85590573c221

public

1646198121439

Bob

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647369303999

1219.9999999999998

thadthechad

1646198121439

0

https://firebasestorage.…489-c2a8b8b28385

12

0

ANYONE

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{"85590573c221": 100}

True

0.03397442426684545

SJUGwjNZN8qOrjgVcLES

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.03397442426684545

will-mrbeast6000-release-two-more-m

692.2771027849967

{"NO": 296.5440670409357, "YES": 48.72289721500323}

Will MrBeast6000 release two more more videos on his primary channel in March 2022

1648709940000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 301, "YES": 45}

0

4.750180680960559

True

play

NO

public

1646204103979

taeyeon

This market resolves YES if MrBeast6000 releases at least two videos on his official youtube channel between 2022/03/01T00:00:00+0000 and 2022/04/01T00:00:00+0000. MrBeast6000's channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/videos Close date updated to 2022-03-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 339.3521432685233, "YES": 63.640317413570465}

{"creatorFee": 1.9489158886001297, "platformFee": 0.4872289721500324, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648775552095

100

taeyeon

1646204103979

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

13

1715658187638

0

1

1646229224775

0.03397442426684545

0.7448950437650974

UlJ64u2uBlXAWtF7iQ91

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7448950437650974

will-any-of-the-players-from-basket

70

{"NO": 25, "YES": 45}

Will any of the players from Basket 1 win the FIDE Grand Prix 2022 Second Leg?

1646380740000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 25, "YES": 45}

0

5.1511516743779335

True

play

YES

public

1646204736002

taeyeon

This market resolves to YES if Anish Giri, Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, Alexander Grischu, or Richard Rapport win the second leg of the FIDE Grand Prix 2022 on March 14. Link to baskets and pools drawn from baskets for the second leg: https://www.fide.com/news/1578

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 60.41597471281912}

{"creatorFee": 1, "platformFee": 0.25, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647977535207

100

taeyeon

1646204736002

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

2

1715658227739

0

1

0.7448950437650974

0.42860185353721947

Vt4PdStT0b3JPtXyWbrx

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.42860185353721947

this-resolves-to-the-direction-of-h

4615.136357313012

{"NO": 102.27419221641068, "YES": 94.58945047057622}

This resolves to the direction of highest bet that has a comment.

1646830740000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 106, "YES": 93}

0

4.840931055116715

True

play

NO

public

1646206489578

Undox

The biggest bet after close that has a comment.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 148.81172005391184, "YES": 128.8827355190415}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646855340651

100

Undox

1646206489578

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

11

1715658256283

0

1

1646294637097

0.42860185353721947

0.8752037712714501

4LGGERgGQtbM3XS1IXnA

{"NO": 4626.953999424487, "YES": 97.94426986139302}

1

will-i-finish-godel-escher-bach-by

13994.545325386587

{"NO": 211.17535599766455, "YES": 341.68918487499104}

Will I finish "Gödel, Escher, Bach" by 2023?

1670320312688

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 222, "YES": 360}

0

4.932755320091984

True

play

YES

public

1646212581371

N.C. Young

I haven't started it yet. This market is a commitment device; I'm putting my own money at stake to incentivise me to succeed. Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 302.08720485802235, "YES": 463.0373925996487}

{"creatorFee": 8.298995408363412, "platformFee": 1.1430034239118996, "liquidityFee": 5.163897635555868}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1670320312688

184.79188716992712

NcyRocks

1670320954523

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

20

1650313793361

0

https://firebasestorage.…445-1c52c8d89745

18

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554120}]

["personal-goals"]

1669977708385

1670320950848

0.9969906878803034

0.8181833057722766

h5xX8JXCgZKfTv108XIS

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-i-submit-to-the-2022-astral-co

190

{"NO": 11, "YES": 99}

Will I submit to the 2022 Astral Codex Ten book review contest?

1649159940000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 11, "YES": 99}

0

4.659519031728724

True

play

YES

public

1646212849980

N.C. Young

I'd like to enter, but I haven't actually decided on a book yet (I have a few ideas). Resolution will take place after the results are revealed to maintain anonymity. This market is a commitment device; I'm putting my own money at stake to incentivise me to succeed.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 46.90439211854258, "YES": 99.49973869809911}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1652488180987

100

NcyRocks

1646212849980

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

4

1650314713270

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…19c-76bef7edb3ec

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554959}]

["personal-goals"]

1646259876392

0.8181833057722766

0.1826294550557713

FqpD5Hekd3F4O0n0CFUa

{"NO": 179.73691190872378, "YES": 7.280178583790857}

1

will-the-commitments-community-have

3458.977084511285

{"NO": 195.80316114595212, "YES": 265.3207139602879}

Will the 'Commitments' community have 50 or more markets by 2022-06-01?

1653882623106

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 250, "YES": 122}

0

5.713540967483159

True

play

YES

public

1646213504484

N.C. Young

Prediction markets can be used as commitment devices if you set a 99% initial probability of your own success - you lose your money if you fail but gain money if you succeed, with your gains being proportional to how unlikely you were to succeed. This seems to me to be a powerful idea, so I've created a community on Manifold around it. Will it catch on? Markets count regardless of open/closed resolved status. I won't count markets that don't place high initial odds - the idea is to incentivise your own success. Additional discussion: https://forum.beeminder.com/t/prediction-markets-as-commitment-devices/10202 Mar 2, 10:36pm: I won't count obvious spam markets. Mar 3, 7:46am: Link: https://manifold.markets/fold/commitments Close date updated to 2022-05-22 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 427.5999062129491, "YES": 172.61074893650917}

{"creatorFee": 5.0957517898590865, "platformFee": 1.0338195645650436, "liquidityFee": 2.881420594796737}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1653882623106

102.88142059479674

NcyRocks

1653927273393

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

17

1650313871603

0

https://firebasestorage.…453-365d843617b8

1653879602129

1653927269358

0.8465384424186502

0.17381679577052989

2LPV17PDs0aPyETpH9KE

{"NO": 79.63712592205256, "YES": 592.7708903073988}

0

will-i-read-50-books-in-2022

2700.6299954105975

{"NO": 69.07369605737739, "YES": 221.52584682979466}

Will I read 50 books in 2022?

1672484340000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 63, "YES": 223}

0

4.868664774323156

True

play

NO

public

1646215266597

N.C. Young

As measured by https://www.beeminder.com/ncyrocks/books. A value of 73 or more will resolve YES. Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 159.18018255043168, "YES": 243.1261915333893}

{"creatorFee": 6.937045964084449, "platformFee": 0.10765466646257404, "liquidityFee": 0.6459279987754443}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1672610222626

180.64592799877545

NcyRocks

1672480016704

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

27

1650313778301

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…299-b970e4befddc

27

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554050}]

["personal-goals"]

1672480016503

1668247086058

0.03

72cnDKQtDn4o1fRoh9UK

what-character-will-brandon-sanders

194.3337991475718

What character will Brandon Sandersons Secret Project #4 be focused on?

1648207183569

eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.88386871014478

True

play

fd4e633e12ad

public

1646217043672

Rutger

I will resolve this market as soon as we have official confirmation from Brandon Sanderson or Dragonsteel. According to Brandon: "Secret project 4 is [..] the one that is focused on a character you've seen before, and that character's backstory is relevant, and you will get more out of it by having read some things." I will only consider answers that specify a single character by name. Mar 25, 12:17pm: Story is up, main character is Sigzil. Hoid/Wit is in it, but he is not the focus of the story, so I'll resolve this to "None of the above".

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.0666480340971285, "platformFee": 1.5166620085242821, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648207183569

400.00000000000006

Rutger

1646217043672

0

https://firebasestorage.…679-3097b2ea9514

2

0

ANYONE

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[{"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "W76fvvUmYWiPb6lyYtiI", "createdTime": 1660912252817}]

["cosmere"]

{"fd4e633e12ad": 100}

True

0.34331709509675107

BBR6dKbSodEKNJWfxB3O

{"NO": 62.959966952958354, "YES": 255.11085161361692}

0

will-i-receive-a-grant-of-50000-usd

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{"NO": 120.34305124832012, "YES": 82.46247700591671}

Will I receive a grant of $50,000 USD before June 1st, 2022?

1654142340000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 121, "YES": 83}

0

3.2736900022766937

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play

NO

public

1646224466176

Timothy Rooney

This market will resolve to YES if I receive a grant for $50k or more before June 1st, 2022. This includes options such as the new FTX philanthropy fund, applying to YC as a non-profit, Uniswap Grants, total donations from individual donors, etc. For the purposes of this market, we will consider both the receipt of funds or a public announcement of the grant as resolving to YES. Mar 2, 7:34am: Any amount above $50k will resolve to YES. Combined grant totals above that amount will resolve to YES. Amounts below $50k resolve to NO Mar 2, 7:46pm: Additional data: I've had two rounds of interviews with the Uniswap Grants Program. Waiting to hear back to see if I'm included in their next wave. The amount would be enough to resolve this contract to YES. Apr 1, 3:47pm: Rejected from FTX Future Fund current cycle Apr 1, 3:47pm: Student enrollment up 10x in the past two weeks May 1, 8:06am: Rejected from uniswap

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1654175610082

100.88677140352316

TimothyRooney

1654137703943

0

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0

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1654137702535

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0.1142803489145216

0.3688492584612888

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3688492584612888

will-someone-help-me-think-of-a-mar

58.577506404179644

{"NO": 10.422493595820352, "YES": 17}

Will Someone Help Me Think of a Market to Create Based Off of Webcam Traffic Feeds by March 16th, 2022?

1647354883923

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7, "YES": 17}

0

5.641379611989416

True

play

YES

public

1646229441478

Patrick Delaney

Here's an example: https://511mn.org/camera/140298/@-93.32476,44.89918,13?show=normalCameras#camera/140298/191676975 Though it could be from anywhere in the world. I'm not sure if there is a way to easily get statistics from this particular video feed, or if any other video traffic feed from any State or political entity couples their feed with statistics, which would be easier to create a bet off of.

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 8.36743692536729, "YES": 26.115780675675772}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1647354883923

100

PatrickDelaney

1646229441478

0

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4

1715657779465

0

1647348078231

0.3688492584612888

0.7946863285965455

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7946863285965455

will-the-sp-500-move-1-in-either-di

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{"NO": 225, "YES": 661.3452386036369}

Will the S&P 500 move +/- 1% in either direction today?

1646251200000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 225, "YES": 682}

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play

NO

public

1646230331422

Athena

This market resolves to YES if at 4 PM ET on March 2nd, 2022 the S&P 500 closes up or down 1% from the closing price on March 1st. Mar 2, 4:00pm: Trick question ;) S&P 500 closed +1.86%, which != 1%, therefore question resolves as 'NO'. This is because I said up or down 1%, not up or down AT LEAST 1% or 1% OR MORE.

BINARY

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{"NO": 401.6172338106895, "YES": 790.1349582147756}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

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1646254887937

100

Athena

1646230331422

0

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10

1715657769913

0

1

0.7946863285965455

0.23102861767640703

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{"NO": 91.31718008137908, "YES": 139.93494504243273}

0

will-nasa-launch-the-space-launch-s

250

{"NO": 140, "YES": 70}

Will NASA launch the Space Launch System by the end of June?

1651799575398

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 140, "YES": 70}

0

3.902491580674895

True

play

NO

public

1646230587250

Multicore

This market resolves YES if the Space Launch System rocket launches by June 30, 2022 at 11:59PM EDT. The launch does not need to succeed, it just needs to get off the ground. As of the creation of this market, the SLS still needs to get through its wet dress rehearsal test before a launch can be attempted. NASA is currently targeting April for the launch, but this date has been delayed many, many times over the past 5+ years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System Mar 3, 8:58am: The market can resolve NO early if NASA publicly moves the launch date past the end of June.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 184.12028677063265, "YES": 100.99574248699794}

{"creatorFee": 0.39032974540361304, "platformFee": 0.06505495756726884, "liquidityFee": 0.39032974540361304}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1651799575398

100.39032974540362

Multicore

1651799568604

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

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0

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["technology-default", "space"]

1651799560148

False

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{"NO": 119.50878480253188, "YES": 240.67274168096014}

0

will-i-continue-posting-monthly-lin

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{"NO": 43, "YES": 105}

Will I continue posting monthly linksposts through the end of 2023?

1678089540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 43, "YES": 105}

0

1.9292811973680664

True

play

NO

public

1646232449809

Keller

This market resolves to NO on the 5th day of any month in which I have not yet posted a linkspost for the preceding month. So far this has not happened, and I have reliably posted to keller.substack.com. It resolves to YES otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 85.40542137417272, "YES": 120.8727016364737}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1678121608417

200

Celer

1678088891492

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c

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0

1

9

1678088891382

0.32

0.05203916149125233

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{"NO": 109.99215970399928, "YES": 528.7692253684726}

0

will-we-have-wwiii-before-january-1

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{"NO": 1025.321841625253, "YES": 143.40038086455593}

Will we have WWIII before January 1st 2023?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1031, "YES": 144}

0

9.94848532575482

True

play

NO

public

1646233788458

AGG

This market resolves to YES if there is a worldwide consensus that WWIII has begun by the end of 12/31/2022, as evidenced by media and government proclamation. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1132.5965821785842, "YES": 288.3382611176555}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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1672595556434

120

AGG

1670703218556

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ef-7839c1d6b8d0

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1650314632647

0

1

45

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491884}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}]

["politics-default", "global-macro"]

1670703218462

1663040315544

0.01

0.8174458339256165

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-manifolds-new-automatic-loan-o

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{"NO": 73.70951505958504, "YES": 296.2012609357648}

Will Manifold's New Automatic Loan on First $M 20 Create Inflation in $M?

1648789140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 74, "YES": 298}

0

4.644882452060672

True

play

YES

public

1646236196269

Patrick Delaney

I am not really sure how to resolve this bet and am open to suggestions to help clarify. If there were some kind of API which reported the total volume of $M, and $M per users, vs. the $M actually purchased by users with real-world money, something like that, it would be more straightforward, but I'm not sure if that exists yet, or would ever. This might be something we might have to eye by just paying attention to the activity on the leaderboards and comparing it to the previous month. It seems reasonable to me that if Manifold the platform is now creating new currency with every single bet, individuals are going to automatically want to use more of that currency to get more visibility on their own personal bets, pools and projects, but this is just a hypothesis. Mar 2, 11:38am: Sounds like we have claims that volumes are escalating, it would be more interesting to figure out by how much and resolve to a PROB in my opinion. This same market type could be created again in the future to compare how different features added change inflation over time. Or if the amount loaned out changes, how does the, "Fed Rate" from Manifold change market volume participation? Mar 2, 9:34pm: I didn't realize Manifold provided this previously, this may be useful: https://manifold.markets/analytics Mar 3, 7:20am: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 158.04982938424, "YES": 334.4472655765727}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1650905414807

100

PatrickDelaney

1646236196269

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

21

1650314711264

0

1

1650905577963

0.8174458339256165

0.12812345082383234

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.12812345082383234

will-all-of-the-trains-in-the-state

38

{"NO": 28, "YES": 10}

Will all of the trains in the State of California shown on the Amtrak Transitdocs Map show GREEN/ON-Time at 8AM PST on Friday?

1646407800000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 28, "YES": 10}

0

5.447450153243938

True

play

NO

public

1646236748176

Patrick Delaney

https://asm.transitdocs.com/map Close date updated to 2022-03-04 9:30 am Mar 3, 9:30am: Sorry, I had picked the wrong Friday earlier. I'm assuming the probability of delays is probably uniform anyway. Mar 4, 8:34am: Currently all trains except for Southwest Chief to LA showing on time! However I'm not going to resolve until a snapshot at exactly 8AM PST.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 35.48317912053541, "YES": 13.602205721867318}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646412538100

100

PatrickDelaney

1646236748176

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

5

1715657935977

0

1

0.12812345082383234

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{"NO": 102.65973305210527, "YES": 40.60086349667259}

0

will-any-nuclear-facility-either-po

1555.6898537300106

{"NO": 710.3882980742742, "YES": 169.34714841629335}

Will any nuclear facility, either power generation, disposal or Chernobyl exclusion zone within Ukraine cause any danger to the public in the next couple months?

1652331540000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 714, "YES": 96}

0

9.246003960315758

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play

NO

public

1646237573402

Patrick Delaney

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ukraine-says-nuclear-plants-operating-normally * Resolution will be from a reasonable power generation and nuclear safety site. * Resolution will be strict, anything outside (meaning above) of normal operating range will be considered a danger to the public. * Does not have to be caused by a military attack, could be due to any reason including lack of supplies or accident. * This includes disturbance of topsoil within the nuclear exclusion zone from troop movements, which thus far has happened but has been called, "within normal operating range."

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 868.0213967681016, "YES": 143.09112494003864}

{"creatorFee": 0.08437932277880866, "platformFee": 0.014063220463134778, "liquidityFee": 0.08437932277880866}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1652369374503

100.08437048334486

PatrickDelaney

1652369373047

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

27

1650314640991

0

1

1652303213294

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0.06435793877083039

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.023646724550942695

will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic

492

{"NO": 470, "YES": 22}

Will Apple release a 27"+ Apple Silicon iMac before April 2022?C

1648797685266

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 470, "YES": 22}

0

4.711813954505213

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play

NO

public

1646239455703

Lars Trieloff

This market resolves to yes, if an iMac powered by Apple Silicon (M1 or newer replacement) with a screen diagonal exceeding 27 inch is sold on apple.com by the end of the month. This market also resolves to yes, for an all-in-one desktop computer with a different name, but same minimum screen size. See also: - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5 (in 2022) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-d4c098bb6201 (before October) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-0faa042b3043 (before July) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3 (before May)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 486.14909235840406, "YES": 75.65741206319444}

{"creatorFee": 0.8799999999999989, "platformFee": 0.21999999999999972, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1648797685266

100

LarsTrieloff

1646239455703

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjkNJjJ886qZi2QaVnBSlx-E8-XbPSY5W_m18U_Aw=s96-c

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0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447675}]

["technology-default"]

0.023646724550942695

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{"NO": 93.90173147849686, "YES": 299.96224959197787}

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will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3

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{"NO": 380, "YES": 42.99999999999997}

Will Apple release a 27"+ Apple Silicon iMac before May 2022?

1651442340000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 380, "YES": 43}

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play

NO

public

1646239581571

Lars Trieloff

This market resolves to yes, if an iMac powered by Apple Silicon (M1 or newer replacement) with a screen diagonal exceeding 27 inch is sold on apple.com by the end of the month. This market also resolves to yes, for an all-in-one desktop computer with a different name, but same minimum screen size. See also: - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5 (in 2022) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-d4c098bb6201 (before October) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-0faa042b3043 (before July) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic (before April)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 410.5128012630057, "YES": 102.02492832734556}

{"creatorFee": 0.22650244813289797, "platformFee": 0.03775040802214966, "liquidityFee": 0.22650244813289797}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1651481269381

100.2265024481329

LarsTrieloff

1646239581571

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjkNJjJ886qZi2QaVnBSlx-E8-XbPSY5W_m18U_Aw=s96-c

8

1650313846162

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445160}]

["technology-default"]

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{"NO": 75.66690211514265, "YES": 1128.1037555178132}

0

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{"NO": 280, "YES": 60}

Will Apple release a 27"+ Apple Silicon iMac before July 2022?

1656712740000

EhOWVuLBAjQlneCLZqNKKkqtDI13

cpmm-1

{"NO": 280, "YES": 60}

0

8.209254686172274

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play

NO

public

1646239659567

Lars Trieloff

This market resolves to yes, if an iMac powered by Apple Silicon (M1 or newer replacement) with a screen diagonal exceeding 27 inch is sold on apple.com by the end of the month. This market also resolves to yes, for an all-in-one desktop computer with a different name, but same minimum screen size. See also: - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5 (in 2022) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-d4c098bb6201 (before October) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3 (before May) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic (before April)

BINARY

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{"NO": 321.87040870620586, "YES": 109.54505922359073}

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0

1656755080053

100.08115183689057

LarsTrieloff

1656711919212

0

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["technology-default"]

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0.007708477409022784

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-d4c098bb6201

290

{"NO": 130, "YES": 160}

Will Apple release a 27"+ Apple Silicon iMac before October 2022?

1646866740000

EhOWVuLBAjQlneCLZqNKKkqtDI13

cpmm-1

{"NO": 130, "YES": 160}

0

2.776361126025315

True

play

NO

public

1646239737877

Lars Trieloff

This market resolves to yes, if an iMac powered by Apple Silicon (M1 or newer replacement) with a screen diagonal exceeding 27 inch is sold on apple.com by the end of the month. This market also resolves to yes, for an all-in-one desktop computer with a different name, but same minimum screen size. See also: - will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5 (in 2022) - will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-0faa042b3043 (before July) - will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3 (before May) - will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic (before April) clickable links: - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5 (in 2022) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-0faa042b3043 (before July) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3 (before May) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic (before April)

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 201.24676395013165, "YES": 208.80689643926993}

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{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

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1665307537596

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LarsTrieloff

1646239737877

0

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447001}]

["technology-default"]

0.5184306695635341

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{"NO": 115.57831502423429, "YES": 716.5535220644517}

0

will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-5481ced23de5

1525.2210203013133

{"NO": 265, "YES": 199.99999999999994}

Will Apple release a 27"+ Apple Silicon iMac before 2023?

1672570465294

EhOWVuLBAjQlneCLZqNKKkqtDI13

cpmm-1

{"NO": 265, "YES": 200}

0

4.147988181621715

True

play

NO

public

1646239912665

Lars Trieloff

This market resolves to yes, if an iMac powered by Apple Silicon (M1 or newer replacement) with a screen diagonal exceeding 27 inch is sold on apple.com by the end of the year. This market also resolves to yes, for an all-in-one desktop computer with a different name, but same minimum screen size. See also: - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic (before April) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-2221d31269d3 (before May) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-0faa042b3043 (before July) - https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-apple-release-a-27-apple-silic-d4c098bb6201 (before October)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 412.0989322967241, "YES": 215.40752076215907}

{"creatorFee": 0.8205989155623308, "platformFee": 0.04264312607550637, "liquidityFee": 0.2558587564530382}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

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1672570465294

160.25585875645305

LarsTrieloff

1672562158186

0

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1650314591338

0

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448501}]

["technology-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-the-brooklyn-nets-win-the-2022

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{"NO": 814.5935684601718, "YES": 330}

Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2022 NBA Championship?

1651283694881

tuVwCnEDyJeYzYDGRmmWFmqcaDq2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 815, "YES": 330}

0

6.296577884857641

True

play

NO

public

1646240660146

Larry James Erwin

The outcome will be determined by which team wins the 2022 NBA Finals.

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 1070.0916157730924, "YES": 406.2027326356385}

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LarryJamesErwin

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0

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396647}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181992943}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

1651122677491

False

0.12594540289077374

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.008999902839107045

will-the-russian-ruble-rub-fall-bel

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{"NO": 22022.20630589611, "YES": 1508.4562777253077}

Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?

1648267200000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 22164, "YES": 1388}

0

4.6172431043583195

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play

NO

public

1646240964902

Johnny

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00500 at any time between February 28, 2022, and the resolution time of March 25, 2022, 9:00 PM, and “No” otherwise. Mar 9, 10:05pm: The official resolution source will be https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1D

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 23424.537419650755, "YES": 2232.3027037004763}

{"creatorFee": 59.65650480458338, "platformFee": 14.914126201145844, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

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1648284818665

100

TheSkeward

1646240964902

0

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1715658500217

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{"NO": 0.5589891493902783, "YES": 91.60599428810136}

0.017568186211720706

will-russia-invade-poland-before-th-e19631d09369

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{"NO": 81.8, "YES": 2.1999999999999993}

Will Russia invade Poland before the end of 2030?

1663277530116

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 81.8, "YES": 2.1999999999999993}

0

8.233557301368341

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646241741670

Account deletion requested

This resolves as yes in case of military invasion (troops or bombing by military). Economic, cyberwarfare, cultural etc actions are excluded. Russian army pretending to not be from the Russia (like in Crimea) is included. https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-russia-invade-poland-before-th may be of interest for short term ("Will Russia invade Poland before the end of June 2022?").

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 83.24760417561578, "YES": 11.225168151079075}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009899494936611666, "YES": 0.0001414213562373095}

0

1663277530116

250.91325865466197

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277536931

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

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1650314576577

0

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["stefans-group", "russia", "wars", "poland", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1663103442017

1663277534759

False

0.017568186211720706

0.4221968436363474

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{"NO": 34.201104319987316, "YES": 299.6598015206081}

0.07697671458576352

will-russia-invade-any-nato-country

428.27902446695776

{"NO": 39.6, "YES": 3.4}

Will Russia invade any NATO country before the end of 2030?

1663277515831

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 39.6, "YES": 3.4}

0

3.7363998267565997

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646241869987

Account deletion requested

This resolves as yes in case of military invasion (troops or bombing by military). Economic, cyberwarfare, cultural etc actions are excluded. Russian army pretending to not be from the Russia (like in Crimea) is included. https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-russia-invade-poland-before-th may be of interest for short term ("Will Russia invade Poland before the end of June 2022?").

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 41.425586307981206, "YES": 11.532857410026363}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002}

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1663277515831

127.25399697891784

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277523299

0

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1650314535957

0

15

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["politics-default", "world-default", "russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1661967506709

1663277521864

False

0.07697671458576354

0.27

Wmv4Sy6BQCOY6ADArDeG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.27

how-much-will-manifold-spend-on-fir

170.99332115852508

{"NO": 74.00667884147492, "YES": 71}

How much will Manifold spend on Firebase in March?

1648796340000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 76, "YES": 71}

0

4.910491312695079

True

play

MKT

public

1646242455699

Manifold

This market resolves to the dollar amount of Manifold Market's total Firebase spending in March; each % corresponds to $50 of Firebase spend. See https://manifold.markets/analytics to see our daily traffic patterns. Continuation of https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/how-much-more-will-manifold-spend-o Firebase spending in Feb was >$1200: https://i.imgur.com/jha9TOM.png Apr 11, 4:19pm: We spent $1,350 in March. https://imgur.com/KTvolNe.png

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 106.32067025039079, "YES": 98.60599373516807}

{"creatorFee": 1.2788067251323776, "platformFee": 0.3197016812830944, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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1649712240038

100

Manifold

1646242455699

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

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1715658277027

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1646251039065

0.27

uUEV2RDeBKCXmU3loQfc

how-will-manifold-loans-work-at-the

1488.3621561858868

How will Manifold loans work at the end of March?

1647673140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.680320939483377

True

basic

8156b1363428

public

1646243541817

Austin

On March 1st, we implemented the ability to automatically take out interest-free loans on the first M$ 20 on each market, inspired by a @ScottAlexander proposal https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems There's been some community discussion over the mechanics of this; this market is a place to express your thoughts on which direction to take this feature.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 22.267183275172954, "platformFee": 5.5667958187932385, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1651266450522

1300.0000000000005

Austin

1720000822356

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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0

ANYONE

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More than 2 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01

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{"NO": 7.969999999999999, "YES": 324.03}

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1646243961738

Account deletion requested

More than 2 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01, according to the official statistics. To the first approximation, it will be count of people who moved through the border since war started. People who left Poland are included. Mar 2, 11:49pm: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-at-least-5-million-refugees-fr "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?" is related

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will-an-apple-headset-with-vr-ar-be

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 660, "YES": 430}

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4.838339678784001

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NO

public

1646244748819

Dustin

This market resolves to yes if anytime before 2023 a headset is available for purchase on the Apple website. Mar 3, 10:59am: Even if only developer members can purchase, I will resolve yes. The idea is an official Apple product launch, and buying a developer kit seems to align with yes.

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will-kyiv-fall-to-russian-forces-by

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Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

1648785540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 14258, "YES": 911}

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public

1646246114026

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm

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{"NO": 3627.7403242638516, "YES": 331.7820409251605}

1

will-vladimir-putin-be-the-presiden

10200.6929301669

{"NO": 369, "YES": 836.9037399110725}

Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?

1675227540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 369, "YES": 847}

0

3.1325283075902406

True

play

YES

public

1646246507527

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10002/presidency-of-vladimir-putin-on-feb-1-2023/ Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 658.1861947902075, "YES": 1010.4440482914326}

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by-2024-will-vladimir-putin-be-char

23371.607826354313

{"NO": 291.0198546013921, "YES": 445}

By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

1679482643247

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 290, "YES": 445}

0

1.0375173782376574

True

basic

YES

public

1646246684221

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/

BINARY

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{"NO": 413.22004840963797, "YES": 609.0779014218951}

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1679459642851

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{"NO": 153.62402106097437, "YES": 1418.2120606167223}

0

will-russia-invade-any-country-othe

3634.8394191090174

{"NO": 561, "YES": 75}

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 561, "YES": 75}

0

2.6341249732867427

True

play

NO

public

1646246842309

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1672420311898

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will-a-major-nuclear-power-plant-in

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Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 684, "YES": 375}

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play

NO

public

1646246929566

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10004/german-nuclear-power/ Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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1685579425174

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False

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will-one-half-of-currently-threaten

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Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

1654055940000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1388, "YES": 436}

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play

NO

public

1646247006558

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9941/russia-takeover-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june/ Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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will-putin-be-replaced-by-someone-e

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{"NO": 235, "YES": 70}

Will Putin be replaced by someone equally bad or worse before the end of 2023.

1704085140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 235, "YES": 70}

0

5.2377858801161805

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play

NO

public

1646247638657

littlebubulle

This market resolves to YES if, before the end of 2023, Putin is neither Prime Minister or President of Russia AND the people replacing him are not better or worse. This market resolve to NO if Putin is still in power (even if his title changes) or his replacement is better than him. "better or worse" will be subjectively evaluated by me. Please take personal biases into account.

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will-ukraine-join-the-union-state-b

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Will Ukraine join the Union State by 2023?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1061, "YES": 95}

0

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NO

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1646256879076

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9998/ukraine-joining-union-state-of-russia-by-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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1672434087385

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1672434087266

1648289452004

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0.028395599834212377

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will-russian-troops-invade-latvia-l

4446.327337057196

{"NO": 788.0881305688758, "YES": 30}

Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 790, "YES": 30}

0

6.788628181086434

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play

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public

1646257011070

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10003/russian-invasion-of-the-baltics-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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1704124676978

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0.11561948126998788

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{"NO": 250, "YES": 250}

Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

1646257067997

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 250, "YES": 250}

0

4.710339692777493

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1646257056743

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9933/nato-article-5-invocation-by-march-31-2022/

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{"NO": 3163.7829662190206, "YES": 106.6842083351335}

Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

1648699140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 3171.2, "YES": 97.8}

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public

1646257188959

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9933/nato-article-5-invocation-by-march-31-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-03-23 11:59 pm Mar 17, 10:58pm: Related with end of year date: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl Mar 17, 11:26pm: Related with June date: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl-7eaa930b70e4 Close date updated to 2022-03-30 11:59 pm

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0.015539245057707061

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will-at-least-three-european-countr

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{"NO": 250, "YES": 250}

Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

1646257255385

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 250, "YES": 250}

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CANCEL

public

1646257244187

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/

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MetaculusBot

1646257244187

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Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

1651661928671

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 215, "YES": 995}

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1646257359270

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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1649005319112

False

0.9771113341169285

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will-russia-recognize-transnistria

2589.4414179484174

{"NO": 540, "YES": 205}

Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?

1672462740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 540, "YES": 205}

0

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True

play

NO

public

1646257452341

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9943/russia-recognizes-transnistria-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1650313810323

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1672426657299

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0.01

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will-one-half-of-currently-threaten-ecda46c0ece2

2052.9233652819603

{"NO": 1499.282551576339, "YES": 449.79408314170087}

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1510, "YES": 450}

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True

play

NO

public

1646257968472

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9941/russia-takeover-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june/ Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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1654219062969

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MetaculusBot

1646257968472

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1650314589775

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1648340382811

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0.06060820666788903

0.023100677110806912

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.023100677110806912

will-truth-social-reach-the-top-ten

1358.882972416494

{"NO": 987.0614852114056, "YES": 64}

Will Truth Social reach the top ten free apps in the iOS app store in March 2022?

1648785540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 989, "YES": 64}

0

4.661572990647142

True

play

NO

public

1646257992624

Gabrielle

Trump Media’s Truth Social app released on February 21, 2022, quickly reaching the top of the iOS App Store[0], however it has had issues and a waitlist. As I write this question, it is at #61 on the Free Apps chart on the App Store. Will it get past these issues before the end of March, 2022, and get into the top ten? Resolves based on checking the App Store on my phone and seeing if Truth Social is at least place #10 in the chart. Will resolve early positively if it reaches that place before the end of the month. Reputable news reporting that it has reached #10 or above will also resolve positively. [0]: https://www.axios.com/trump-blowing-truth-social-launch-c2d4f1f0-5440-478a-acfa-b9462b64568c.html Mar 2, 4:53pm: If it is removed from the App Store, I won’t resolve negatively until the end of the month, in case it is returned.

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1648791368416

100

Gabrielle

1646257992624

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1646887439146

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will-russia-annex-transnistria-in-2

6501.022668205871

{"NO": 1439.7641057887483, "YES": 160}

Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1440, "YES": 160}

0

1.195473104378053

True

play

NO

public

1646258451829

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9999/annexation-of-transnistria/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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MetaculusBot

1672235515774

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1650313824091

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1672235515610

False

0.02

0.30865433792670266

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will-critical-us-infrastructure-be

1233.647432901606

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Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 325, "YES": 339}

0

4.400514503946277

True

play

NO

public

1646258513082

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9984/russian-cyberattack-on-us-infrastructure-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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MetaculusBot

1672546613303

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1672546610433

1646530070154

False

0.02

0.0074522427466695565

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0.0074522427466695565

will-martial-law-be-declared-in-rus

7706.311487728131

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Will martial law be declared in Russia by April 1st?

1648871940000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 4692, "YES": 225}

0

4.624983789757952

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play

NO

public

1646258599807

Daniel Filan

Some have claimed this might happen (https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/martial-law-may-be-imposed-in-russia-on-march-4-podoliak/). Resolves YES if multiple reputable western news outlets describe some measure in place in Russia as 'martial law'.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1648875031435

100

DanielFilan

1646258599807

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1715658015749

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will-at-least-5-million-refugees-fr

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Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 270, "YES": 832}

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1646258684357

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9994/5m-ukrainian-refugees/ Close date updated to 2025-01-01 11:59 pm

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Will MSCI decide to exclude Russian companies from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index following its semi-annual index review?

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cos

This market resolves to "YES" if MSCI removes more than half of the Russian securities presently included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index on or before May 31st (11:59 PM EST). The next semi-annual index review will likely occur sometime around mid-May. Information about the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/c0db0a48-01f2-4ba9-ad01-226fd5678111 Press release from the most recent semi-annual index review: https://www.msci.com/eqb/pressreleases/archive/MSCI_Nov21_QIRPR.pdf

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1671579986311

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 411, "YES": 570}

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play

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1646259006881

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9937/50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

1668560208828

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cpmm-1

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public

1646259055496

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9935/25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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0.8223495229464151

the-replacement-administrator-for-a

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The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 22044.199999999997, "YES": 39922.8}

0

4.6159094725301255

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play

YES

public

1646259730157

Honourary

This market will resolve to YES if: After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, the selected replacement has taken power, and the individual selected identifies as female. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD. Date: 02/03/2022 14:45<Honourary> Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server. He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue. Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit. So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead. 14:47 <chuzz> Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins? 14:49 <TheSkeward> true! 14:50 <Honourary> I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market. 14:51 <TheSkeward> set one up on manifold.markets link it widely around the discord I will be following it avidly fortunes could be won or lost So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place. Jun 9, 5:16pm: I received a notification that the free choice market for the future administrator was resolved, as well as an email notifying me about nfd's bet. I quickly emailed TheSkeward to get confirmation, as I wanted to prevent front-running if an official announcement had been made. After TheSkeward confirmed for me that Zenbu had been picked and that furthermore she had accepted, I logged onto Manifold Markets and resolved the market. I acknowledge that the original description says that it will resolved only after TheSkeward has stepped down and the replacement has taken power, but in hindsight unless there are exigent circumstances I decided that resolving early following the announcement was more honourable than waiting for an official change of command ceremony to be completed and enabling further market distorting front-running of the event to happen. If this premature action was honourable or dishonourable I leave to @Gurkenglas to decide. On a personal note, this market was made on a whim, as a joke. I never expected it to be one of the largest markets on Manifold, and when I first made it, I thought only fellow members of the ACX Discord would participate. The stuff with Spindle, the large amounts of money injected into the market, the large swings, the derivative market by @Gurkenglas about me resolving Honourably or not, and the final flourish of getting mentioned by Scott Alexander in his Substack was to be honest, a bit of an emotional roller coaster. I started this thinking all Prediction Markets are kind of a joke, and finished it with a much greater understanding after going down countless rabbit holes about what they were and how they are valuable to society. I never asked for this, I never expected the responsibility of resolving a 1.5 million M$ market. This is been quite the learning and growing experience for me. Thanks for everyone who participated and congratulations to Zenbu!

BINARY

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who ya dadi?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.140000000000001, "YES": 137.86}

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play

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public

1646259891109

nick jones

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1667855204194

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nickjones

1646259891109

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who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th

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Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

1672562532872

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615856908119572

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basic

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1646259958440

Johnny

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user. Point of clarification: I added some plausible-seeming names to get the market started but this should not be taken as any indication that the next admin must be among them.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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TheSkeward

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ANYONE

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are-plaid-ach-transfers-out-of-beta

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Are Plaid ACH transfers out of beta?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 95, "YES": 90}

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1646260227648

peeps

I'm not sure whether Plaid supports ACH transfers. If they support ACH transfers and they are NOT in beta by the end of March 3, this market will resolve to YES. To read more on Plaid's API docs, go here: https://plaid.com/docs/api/ Mar 3, 11:46am: to be more specific, does Plaid itself, not a partner, support ACH transfers that are not in Beta?

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2678.130729640873

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Will Volodymyr Zelensky remain President of Ukraine by 2023?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 542, "YES": 1106}

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1646260813485

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9743/zelensky-stays-in-power/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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will-the-sp-500-move-1-or-more-in-e

141

{"NO": 41, "YES": 60}

Will the S&P 500 move 1% or more in either direction on March 3rd, 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 41, "YES": 60}

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CANCEL

public

1646261547008

Athena

This market resolves to "YES" if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 2% or more from its March 2nd closing price at 4 PM ET on March 3rd, 2022. Price will be checked via Google Finance. *1% or more, copy pasted from another market I made and forgot to change that part. Will be recreating, thank you for pointing that out @JamesGrugett

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 64.81575426082766, "YES": 77.46044152081758}

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{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1646274129639

100

Athena

1646261547008

0

https://firebasestorage.…c79-532017256ef0

3

1715657827173

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567126}]

["economics-default"]

1646262690250

0.588177746113823

0.6446610262621472

nMlitbO8fVBTSjopv8OJ

{"NO": 263.8682113220369, "YES": 64.38567566139893}

1

will-mathlib-have-formal-proofs-of

527.7854929456109

{"NO": 85, "YES": 156.23605778307498}

Will mathlib have formal proofs of 70 out of 100 theorems from Freek Wiedijk's list before July?

1654886152150

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 85, "YES": 157}

0

3.1362975820266756

True

play

YES

public

1646264309909

Bolton Bailey

Mathlib (https://leanprover-community.github.io/) is a library of mathematics formalized in the Lean proof assistant. Like other mathematical formalization efforts, mathlib tracks the number of theorems it has formalized from the "100 theorems list" (https://www.cs.ru.nl/~freek/100/), a list of 100 well-known theorems proposed by Freek Wiedijk. This question resolves to "YES" if, before the market closing time, the mathlib 100 theorems tracking page at (https://leanprover-community.github.io/100.html) indicates that 70 or more theorems from the list are formalized in Lean. This site will be treated as the authoritative resolution source; theorems that are formalized but not admitted to the mathlib repository or not tracked on the page will not count. May 9, 12:43am: As a helpful tip, see this page https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib/commits/master/docs/100.yaml for a list of edits to the file from which the resolution page is generated.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 144.3073536304474, "YES": 193.3150427049371}

{"creatorFee": 2.35370665424744, "platformFee": 0.39228444237457344, "liquidityFee": 2.35370665424744}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1654886152150

101.64575551365485

BoltonBailey

1654886123385

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

1

9

1650314753600

0

[{"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1667164635544}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1691181944032}]

["the-lean-theorem-prover", "mathematics"]

1654886122120

1652075073455

False

0.825633618793036

0.44626758265909144

xcRalGmKLd7U7zfgvkBn

{"NO": 50.772858241157806, "YES": 231.87539687688604}

0

will-bandcamp-get-notably-worse-in

583.098564836102

{"NO": 126.83450261651296, "YES": 150.114242286154}

Will Bandcamp get notably worse in at least one axis as a result of them being acquired by Epic Games by the end of 2022?

1672559940000

TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 135, "YES": 146}

0

3.086455546782419

True

play

NO

public

1646266392969

Luna Nova

This is basically going to be a personal judgement. My areas of concern are with the desktop website player, the android app, song purchasing, advertising, misc parts of the service being pared down in the name of reducing costs, etc. If this is how you found out about this, sorry. https://www.epicgames.com/site/en-US/news/bandcamp-joining-epic-games-to-support-fair-open-platforms-for-artists-and-fans https://blog.bandcamp.com/2022/03/02/bandcamp-is-joining-epic Mar 2, 4:13pm: Oh, and if they add a subscription service - some sort of Bandcamp Pro, I'll probably resolve yes, depending on specific details of that. Mar 2, 7:50pm: noticed this tweet, lol: https://twitter.com/benance_/status/1499199220376612864

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 206.08716458102302, "YES": 185.01146395995755}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1672623634961

100

LunaNova

1672623713702

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c

18

1650314823973

0

1

19

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}]

["internet"]

1670874258331

1672623709330

0.15

0.050899666687111135

fyPkOqFzSMXmImgItQLG

{"NO": 90.58992618767373, "YES": 631.4068400003914}

0

baker-mayfield-will-be-on-the-roste

753.8348248478562

{"NO": 130.16517515214383, "YES": 10.001178418813453}

Baker Mayfield will be on the roster of an NFC North team in the NFL week 1 in 2022

1660625940000

MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 130, "YES": 10}

0

10.315474371143612

True

play

NO

public

1646267976566

Dustin

This resolves to YES if Baker is a member of the Vikings, Packers, Lions, or Bears week 1

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 136.55353165328884, "YES": 31.623092829449813}

{"creatorFee": 0.5931599996085669, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1660649491227

100

Dustin

1659481958208

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c

7

1650314704195

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405997}]

["sports-default"]

1659481958044

0.0076356251723633

xELbB2Jy0oSsdtmKXow9

theodidactus-for-sale

37

Theodidactus for sale!

1646289961696

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.462418377228463

True

play

55a3908558f1

public

1646272577197

Jenny

This market resolves when someone makes a bet of at least $25 with a comment. I'll create a new answer and resolve to it. In exchange, the person who made the $25 bet gets Theodidactus. Close date updated to 2022-03-02 11:59 pm Mar 2, 8:56pm: Resolves N/A if no one buys Theodidactus before midnight. Close date updated to 2022-03-03 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646289961696

280

Jenny

1646272577197

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

3

0

ANYONE

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1

1646292576111

{"55a3908558f1": 100}

True

0.08844970232423238

KSRzxKK5WkPSu9uDDT8U

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.08844970232423238

will-the-sp-500-move-1-or-more-in-e-1fc308a674b0

1565.1028835289587

{"NO": 552.7994348472571, "YES": 362.09768162378407}

Will the S&P 500 move 1% or more in either direction on March 3rd, 2022?

1646337600000

IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 573, "YES": 205}

0

4.668302018415658

True

play

NO

public

1646274179223

Athena

This market resolves to "YES" if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 1% or more from its March 2nd closing price at 4 PM ET on March 3rd, 2022. Price will be checked via Google Finance.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 873.5002872036232, "YES": 272.0952255690035}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1646367738983

100

Athena

1646274179223

0

https://firebasestorage.…c79-532017256ef0

15

1715657955810

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568532}]

["economics-default"]

0.08844970232423238

hjm2yKs3SNrdhw2u1tqn

c

900

C

1646275758519

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.669158514153732

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646275721119

Sylvie

FDA announces a COVID-19 vaccine targeting Omicron, Delta, or some other variant(s)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646275758519

220

sylv

1646275721119

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d416e8727867", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hjm2yKs3SNrdhw2u1tqn", "createdTime": 1646275721334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.74", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646275758000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}]

True

0.6304465411148507

NlOGj8d9PPwej3Xyhde9

{"NO": 20.612446846147947, "YES": 269.61599954119595}

0

will-a-vaccine-for-a-covid19-varian

520.5772224718783

{"NO": 116.89999999999999, "YES": 188.52277752812182}

Will a vaccine for a COVID-19 variant be approved before May 1st?

1651463940000

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 116.89999999999999, "YES": 191.10000000000002}

0

3.65592022107749

True

play

NO

public

1646276045465

Sylvie

This market resolves to yes if the FDA announces it has approved a COVID-19 vaccine targeting at least one COVID-19 strain other than wild-type. Vaccines targeting multiple variants, or other diseases, will count towards this. Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 182.57374585864227, "YES": 244.8479348548636}

{"creatorFee": 2.3040027528242875, "platformFee": 0.38400045880404793, "liquidityFee": 2.3040027528242875}

{"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664}

0

1651512640638

102.30400275282427

sylv

1651462361016

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c

9

1650314559266

0

1

1651462308342

1651462359460

0.11537555877901154

aJNLsJBke2IVnMhyrHFO

which-month-will-a-vaccine-for-a-co

295

Which month will a vaccine for a COVID-19 variant be approved by the FDA?

1670648340000

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.807651632480852

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646276246808

Sylvie

This market if the FDA announces it has approved a COVID-19 vaccine targeting at least one COVID-19 strain other than wild-type. Vaccines targeting multiple variants, or other diseases, will count.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671183855522

340

sylv

1671183852431

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

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2

3

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601085}]

["medicine"]

1654995375290

1671183846584

True

0.3124977083505207

quMUWZHsnfvUzCiaTZVy

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3124977083505207

will-nba-teams-score-more-than-1575

120

{"NO": 99, "YES": 21}

Will NBA teams score more than 1575 points on March 3rd, 2022?

1646327267192

xs7PjBvKveZJ8ZRULK0srmq9UPG2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 99, "YES": 21}

0

4.962203626998809

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646277495159

Timothy Rooney

This market resolved to YES if more than 1575 points are scored in the NBA games on March 3rd, 2022. Mar 3, 12:06pm: Canceling pool because of lack of interest

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 99.49973869809911, "YES": 67.08235237385463}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1646327267192

100

TimothyRooney

1646277495159

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzKzagHNGQ6Ff-JqGsJiieY_Wo6msr0hg-tRvLg=s96-c

1

1715658752174

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408419}]

["sports-default"]

0.3124977083505207

dRuudcetEMF7UPWxBlHq

who-will-be-pregnant-first

130

Who will be pregnant first?

1646278601556

vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.939478067851447

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646278528126

Mike Blume

Elena, spiracular, and swimmer are all trying for babies! Which will get a positive pregnancy test first?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646278601556

280

MichaelBlume

1646278528126

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

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who-will-be-pregnant-first-4376584ca80d

2994.4909627175257

Who will be pregnant first?

1664607600000

vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649870146625645

True

play

MKT

public

1646278664155

Mike Blume

Elena, spiracular, and swimmer are all trying for babies! Which will get a positive pregnancy test first? Mar 2, 7:40pm: Related markets: Will Elena be pregnant before she turns 34? https://manifold.markets/Elena/will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34 Will Spiracular be pregnant before Elena? https://manifold.markets/spiracular/will-i-get-pregnant-before-elena Close date updated to 2022-10-01 12:00 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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MichaelBlume

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16

0

ANYONE

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1

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zq1xiQyPs5gXIiCr6ZKT

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.030921829365545005

will-this-market-have-at-least-m-50

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{"NO": 200, "YES": 1219.1023310473965}

Will this market have at least M$ 5,000 invested AND PROB below 80% at close?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 849, "YES": 135}

0

4.656466833647945

True

play

NO

public

1646286040646

Bayesian Philosopher

This market resolves YES if it closes with at least M$5,000 AND the market implied probability is less than (not equal to) 80%. If either of those conditions is not met then it resolves NO.

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-i-eat-an-orange

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{"NO": 75, "YES": 62}

Will I eat an orange?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 75, "YES": 62}

0

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play

NO

public

1646290192886

town biden

If I eat an orange "yes" wins, if I don't "no" wins

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townbiden

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["economics-default"]

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0.40194010701202726

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when-will-there-be-a-prediction-mar

61

When will there be a prediction market where payouts are pegged to a passive investment roughly comparable to sitting in a Vanguard index fund?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

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play

public

1646291793040

Scrooge McDuck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bets aren't profitable on longer-term questions. The opportunity cost versus sitting in an index fund would be a nominal ~11% per year. That means for longer term timeframes, even with a betting edge, your opportunity cost increases exponentially. This is a problem for the usefulness of betting markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will there be a betting market that does what I want -- your bets and winnings are paid out in some way that is e.g. Vanguard index fund pegged, or something roughly equivalent. This would then make it rational for great forecasters to do stuff in betting markets on long-term questions, and not be losing money the whole time. Realistically it's unlikely to be quite as high return/risk as sitting in the index in a broker's account. But I'd accept something that comes close.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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ScroogeMcDuck

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ANYONE

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mpxHP3ZbLrvto7x45UcR

this-months-coordination-words-are

140.66995309727963

This month's COORDINATION WORDS are "boast" and "diligent". What will traders coordinate to do based on this prompt?

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5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.936679389869067

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play

MKT

public

1646295458751

Em ✨

Consider what tasks/goals/activities which might be better accomplished when multiple people correlate efforts to do them. For example, 'posting one thing you're proud of to a bragging channel every day this week'. Suggest some high value ones with the most obvious relevancy to this month's coordination words. Resolves to prob... i reserve the right to tweak numbers by my personal judgment to counteract market distortions, dock points for vague or nonactionable answers, etc. Comment/Ante returns will be capped to 4%.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1648809816598

439.99999999999994

hamnox

1646295458751

0

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5

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ANYONE

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1

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.31

how-many-likes-x-05-will-i-get-on-m

404.01923776046704

{"NO": 177, "YES": 166.980762239533}

How many likes (x 0.5) will I get on my upcoming post "Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!"?

1646945940000

SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 177, "YES": 165}

0

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True

play

MKT

public

1646295559672

Scott Alexander

Sometime in the next few weeks, I'll publish a post discussing the new antidepressants Zulresso and zuranolone. The post is organized as a FAQ / series of questions, and is 3,000 words long. This market resolves to ONE HALF the number of likes (Substack hearts) on the post after one week, rounded up. So for example, if it has 121 likes, this market resolves as 61%. If the post gets more than 200 likes, the market will resolve as 100%. If I forget to check how many likes it has after exactly one week, I will use the number of likes on the post whenever I remember to check it, unless other people have screenshots of it from the right time, in which case I will use those. I might also, at my discretion, check a few hours early to prevent people from manipulating the market by liking it at the last second. Close date updated to 2022-03-10 12:59 pm

BINARY

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0

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647395377637

100

ScottAlexander

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Does Manifold have a bug that is letting me keep spending the same M$19?

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cpmm-1

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N. N.

This market resolves yes if it turns out that Manifold has a bug that has been allowing me to spend the same M$19 repeatedly. If it turns out that this is just my misinterpreting the interface somehow, it resolves no.

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Degenerate Market! Will you dare?

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Undox

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What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?1

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Account deletion requested

See https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president If it answers itself as N/A after some time - is this time depending on how long it was open? If admins will resolve it - then https://manifold.markets/about is worth updating Disclaimer: I have made a significant bet that question asker is trolling, but I have not expected not resolving question at all, and now I worry that it is going to be resolved correctly by admins.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?

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cpmm-multi-1

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play

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1646299674389

Account deletion requested

Selected answer will depend on which is correct, preferring earlier posted ones in case of duplicates. ---------- See https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president If it answers itself as N/A after some time - is this time depending on how long it was open? If admins will resolve it - then https://manifold.markets/about is worth updating Disclaimer: I have made a significant bet that question asker is trolling, but I have not expected not resolving question at all, and now I worry that it is going to be resolved correctly by admins. Close date updated to 2022-05-10 11:59 pm Mar 8, 9:10pm: Pushed close date to future to give incentive to admins to take part in this market (I also emailed them) Mar 9, 4:25pm: I will not extend further, in case of Trump hostage market will stay unresolved by 2022-05-10 I will resolve it as #3

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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Russia will ban men of military age from leaving Russia by 6 March, 2022

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{"NO": 120.00000000000001, "YES": 280}

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CANCEL

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1646302850893

Hobbes

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Will Russia ban men of military age from leaving Russia by 6 March, 2022

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{"NO": 11036, "YES": 588}

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will-russia-close-their-borders-bef

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Will Russia close their borders before March 11th?

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Austin

See also https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/russian-border-closure-by-april-2022/ . I'll be roughly using their definition for border close: reputable news source reports significant e.g. >2% restriction, e.g. males of conscript age. Prompted by Alexey Guzey's alarming warning: https://buttondown.email/guzey/archive/4-independent-sources-i-have-say-that-the-russian/ via Google Translate: "For the Russians, the exit will be blocked very soon. First, for men, some military age, then for everyone Consider going straight to any open country (except Belarus). Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and the list goes on. Now there is still such an opportunity, but it will be blocked quickly and without warning. If you want or consider it your duty to stay in the Russian Federation, this is your choice. But if you don’t want to live in this, you need to get out immediately, it’s better today The position of the Russian Federation is much worse than in the Cold War. Complete hell can come suddenly and without warning. As for the economic collapse, it is guaranteed. I can bet on this quite confidently, because the sanctions steamroller has already set off. Western state apparatuses are more mechanistic, and therefore more subject to institutional inertia than the Russian one. It is difficult to move them from their place, but once moved, they go, go, go, and so on for a very long time. Because it is difficult not only to start them, but also to stop them, there is no person who could give such an order If you want to leave, leave immediately, the sooner the better, to any open country except Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to ask the price for a long time which is better, the main thing is to cross the border, and then we’ll see. Kazakhstan and others are unlikely to block the exit, but the Russian Federation will. If you have not yet decided where and what to do next, you can go to Istanbul - this is the largest hub and from there they fly to almost all countries As you cross, you can think about further actions. They understandably depend on your finances, skills, network and many related circumstances. This is a recommendation that I can give to anyone who is thinking about leaving. As for more specific considerations, I'm not ready to make them public yet (subscribers can look here (https://www.patreon.com/posts/63248958)). But unlike all the other sealed texts, I will open this one as soon as I deem it possible. For those who want to leave but do not know the situation on the ground - here is a list of Russian-language telegram chats in 105 countries of the world. You can read and if something is not clear, clarify the details with those who are already there https://telegra.ph/chat360-10-14"

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