p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5180235328984721 | 2izhMMUtGuQ5V3tRlwB6 | {"NO": 445.7663700278749, "YES": 2110.079202424417} | 0.1850409975103208 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7 | 1751.7412877879297 | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of August? | 1725163140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.688160547167286 | False | basic | public | 1714056127963 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.11616052374731498, "month": -0.3349191334209316} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.063607445747536, "platformFee": 3.6071377855979376, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719897197104 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714056128748}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714056128752}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "... | ["donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719897193881 | 1719593956657 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5642418018886446 | EMJMYno4CoJ4mQPaUcBb | {"NO": 362.6689437045362, "YES": 2170.989103757022} | 0.1778397672982696 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3e8398d5fb00 | 6910.519190800203 | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of September? | 1727755140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.689494389561876 | False | basic | public | 1714056415185 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": -0.01615527684322504, "week": -0.17216023270173042, "month": -0.3663139364419286} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 176.28269933528145, "platformFee": 8.178137824129255, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720210797913 | 0 | 81 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714056415689}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714056415719}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720210794830 | 1714056903084 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
blELj5p5nL7PS4WgWJrM | will-the-close-price-of-xrp-be-high | 0 | Will the close price of XRP be higher than the previous day? | 1714056674278 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1714056630729 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "XRP - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko historical data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp/historical_d... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714056674278 | 100 | Haws | 1715738674097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a2651046ed96", "prob": 0.5, "text": "April 25", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'25':2 'april':1", "contractId": "blELj5p5nL7PS4WgWJrM", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 17140566... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "XRP", "slug": "xrp", "groupId": "63cbf759-109a-4d00-b461-c8ac7cf3f01b", "createdTime": 1714056631138}, {"name": "๐ช Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1714056631181}, {"name": "๐ต Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdT... | ["xrp", "crypto-prices", "finance", "fairlyrandom"] | 0.25 | 1715738672355 | 0.5 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OgAcuHaX7oYvYarpBI5Y | will-the-close-price-of-xrp-be-high-bdba36088d71 | 259 | Will the close price of XRP be higher than the previous day? | 1714535940000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1714056722095 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "XRP - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko historical data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp/historical_d... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.646559444258677, "platformFee": 2.646559444258677, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714566062750 | 310 | Haws | 1714535940000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d25160b3008e", "prob": 0.5, "text": "April 25", "index": 0, "poolNo": 60.63212353252277, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.7114428181284, "textFts": "'25':2 'april':1", "contractId": "OgAcuHaX7oYvYarpBI5Y", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2"... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1714056722396}, {"name": "XRP", "slug": "xrp", "groupId": "63cbf759-109a-4d00-b461-c8ac7cf3f01b", "createdTime": 1714056722393}, {"name": "๐ต Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdT... | ["crypto-prices", "xrp", "finance"] | 0.25 | 1714505982889 | 1714536924842 | 0.2 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
egHp98kONsFMOE0BCuME | what-are-some-good-alternatives-to | 284.7164866563088 | [Vote with your Mana] What are some good alternatives to the pivot? [Add Responses] | 14893736340000 | i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714057947586 | CelebratedWhale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What are some other solutions Manifold could have implemented to address their concerns?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an approval/disapproval market. It will not resolve", "type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8951190367874737, "platformFee": 2.8951190367874737, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | CelebratedWhale | 1714651473242 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bceefc7a207a", "prob": 0.5368962722228883, "text": "A large bounty competition for alternatives where the users jointly brainstorm ideas", "index": 0, "poolNo": 98.16034089438566, "userId": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.6689055967041, "textFts": "'altern':6 'bounti':3 'brainst... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1693507367468 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714057947841}, {"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714057947856}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1714651469588 | 1714057975805 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42795812012143214 | PpReagfkh7vaeWxvwAVe | {"NO": 154.821103616336, "YES": 273.16409942567515} | 0.29775961047482546 | hasbro-publishes-a-dd-go-app-by-202 | 100 | Hasbro publishes a D&D GO app by 2027 | 1808776740000 | Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714059599415 | Marktwse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predicted in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this video", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/HiNCXT0bCe4?si=BR-us3qslgtAHzeB&t=358", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.368724310332185, "platformFee": 1.368724310332185, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | marktwse | 1714221838356 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671579488806 | 0 | [{"name": "Dungeons & Dragons", "slug": "dungeons-dragons", "groupId": "d929a6b2-07d1-428e-802f-0e8d5be6e564", "createdTime": 1714059599586}, {"name": "๐ฎ Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714059599636}, {"name": "ttrpg", "slug": "ttrpg", "groupId": "1IrbElLWgVMF6AZOA3Uy", "c... | ["dungeons-dragons", "gaming", "ttrpg"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714221835117 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FOMMBtsZ98mHqt8Buklf | which-f1-team-will-adrian-newey-go | 4067.5598110588394 | Which F1 team will Adrian Newey go to next? | 1893455940000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1714059768306 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adrian Newey is one of the greatest F1 engineers of all time. Over his decades at Williams, McLaren and Red Bull his cars have won a dozen WCCs and as many WDCs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.82994986133508, "platformFee": 24.15432545500712, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720039330433 | 0 | 25 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "2a107a4f0c31", "prob": 0.31120679255465805, "text": "Ferrari", "index": 0, "poolNo": 236.65231110244395, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 523.7819620694056, "textFts": "'ferrari':1", "contractId": "FOMMBtsZ98mHqt8Buklf", "createdTime": 1714059768306, "probChanges": {"day":... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1714059768536}, {"name": "Mercedes F1", "slug": "mercedes-f1", "groupId": "cbed80ab-1b17-4ae9-b068-b0705aa5a5e6", "createdTime": 1714059768533}, {"name": "Red Bull", "slug": "red-bull", "groupId": "02d7a2ea... | ["motorsports", "mercedes-f1", "red-bull", "ferrari", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 1720039327166 | 1714577152122 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5331151563928772 | 4xKcGjkFxmkNZznCsD3T | {"NO": 699.3630536048775, "YES": 71.95950027239562} | 1 | will-jacob-zuma-be-alive-to-witness | 703.2751065408892 | Will Jacob Zuma be alive to witness the conclusion of the 2024 South African general elections? | 1717263982337 | ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1714059800710 | Captain Jack Sparrow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Former South African President Jacob Zuma, aged 82, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "has recently collapsed again", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ewn.co.za/2024/04/24/jacob-zuma-82-collapses-again-sparking-d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08266159401522455} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.601345912297811, "platformFee": 4.528993806217941, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717263982337 | 210 | diadematus | 1717263982337 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697566520755 | 0 | [{"name": "Jacob Zuma", "slug": "jacob-zuma", "groupId": "67b75212-78af-4c0e-ba10-ddcc867b46e3", "createdTime": 1714059800992}, {"name": "๐ชฆ Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1714059800985}, {"name": "South Africa", "slug": "south-africa", "groupId": "H87QoUwQ4mC... | ["jacob-zuma", "death-markets", "south-africa", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716880974609 | 0.92 | ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43218671479206455 | 9mTdzk8MB9Wzfelgbeic | {"NO": 124.98061672703638, "YES": 213.53578202800924} | 0.3081930237959581 | sameday-getting-a-pair-of-glasses-i | 55 | Same-day getting a pair of glasses in California | 1877583540000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714059810144 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other countries (i.e. China) have zero problems with achieving this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Go to a glasses market", "type": "text"}]}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 4.996003610813204e-16, "week": 4.996003610813204e-16, "month": 4.996003610813204e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7321089859954072, "platformFee": 0.7321089859954072, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Ernie | 1714344479024 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "The Decay of American Capitalism", "slug": "the-decay-of-american-capitalism", "groupId": "3ba03386-875c-4086-8a60-d3a1cc0fd991", "createdTime": 1714059810339}, {"name": "Rent Seeking", "slug": "rent-seeking", "groupId": "6ca5c82f-eaa4-4967-88ee-5283213fbf9b", "createdTime": 1714059810346}, {"name": "Consume... | ["the-decay-of-american-capitalism", "rent-seeking", "consumer-behavior", "calling-out-capitalism", "medical-regulation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714344475766 | 1714077750771 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5638552841475966 | M5qGepESumfhbXuE0i3c | {"NO": 22.41485021182362, "YES": 1049.6311840218814} | 0 | will-tottenham-hotspur-play-a-decis | 1095 | Will Tottenham Hotspur play a decisive role in the Premier league winner? | 1715721141169 | ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714060791102 | Captain Jack Sparrow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2023-2024 English Premier League season is entering its final stages and the title race has narrowed down to two main contenders: Arsenal and Manchester City. With just a few games remaining, the results of their upcoming matches against Totten... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.008393645986114, "platformFee": 8.008393645986114, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715721141169 | 200 | diadematus | 1715721182451 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697566520755 | 0 | [{"name": "Manchester City", "slug": "manchester-city", "groupId": "02108b1d-9c6a-4446-9d09-92f0beb1e866", "createdTime": 1714060791362}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1714060791440}, {"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJ... | ["manchester-city", "premiere-league", "soccer", "tottenham-hotspur-fc"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715719862582 | 1715721180939 | 0.03 | ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ldycAchEdtQjgldi3QxF | will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a | 2334.6575671786827 | Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | 1723359540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.398439510448025 | False | plus | public | 1714060926897 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Deadpool & Wolverine\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/deadpool_and_wolverine", "cla... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.42051013320681, "platformFee": 8.398819307392198, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ziddletwix | 1720118154406 | 0 | 28 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "a79c3eb5e022", "prob": 0.9466269443147974, "text": ">60%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1582.9022411540734, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.24775485077825, "textFts": "'60':1", "contractId": "ldycAchEdtQjgldi3QxF", "createdTime": 1714060926898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅ Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714060927270}, {"name": "๐บ Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1714060927445}, {"name": "๐จ Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "c... | ["movies", "television-film", "culture-default", "boxoffice", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1720118151349 | 1719957141891 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JdSYBN053PNDdZQQDV2T | what-government-positions-will-mike | 403.89231967691325 | What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life? | 2556161940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714063609497 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting from this market's creation. Terms used refer to the United States presidency, congress, states, and so on in whatever their most obvious normal meaning is. Note that this market refers to time served, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8135247980110107, "platformFee": 3.6740136018141376, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 650 | Panfilo | 1717864658846 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ec36a24f2930", "prob": 0.09650720280241047, "text": "President", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.392776800945065, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.10595856765065, "textFts": "'presid':1", "contractId": "JdSYBN053PNDdZQQDV2T", "createdTime": 1714063609497, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "Speaker of the House election", "slug": "speaker-of-the-house-election", "groupId": "0mpTdoHFiEzLBSKBYdXr", "createdTime": 1714063609760}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714063609757}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default",... | ["speaker-of-the-house-election", "us-politics", "politics-default", "118th-congress", "celebrities"] | 0.25 | 1717864655751 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4899724518228599 | RmYAe8jYAeCLOBB0ctR4 | {"NO": 107.91804989912121, "YES": 133.74088712606286} | 1 | will-i-do-9h-or-less-of-graphsheets | 71.15233560344039 | Will I do 9h or less of graphsheets this week | 1714424340000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1714063783544 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Graphsheets is my personal project that will be like treesheets but with graphs and infinitely zoomable", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1538042593089952, "platformFee": 1.1538042593089952, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714465765598 | 120 | AntonBogun | 1714424340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1714063783782}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714402558893 | 0.44 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7209185534094926 | u1OhSZehJOBsbPuNcIR2 | {"NO": 1179.5007059009565, "YES": 859.3726351627839} | 0.7800000000000001 | will-the-straw-hats-split-up-after | 2032.7304365766022 | Will the straw hats leave egghead together? | 1735685940000 | CShiYwaR1JN6aGGVxqUGUUYcKYI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.67445464111887 | False | basic | public | 1714063796169 | Ger D. Gar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if you think the straw hats will at least temporarily split up when leaving egghead.", "type": "text"}, {"text": " (eg: when they split up after Dressr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04481212717109484, "month": -0.03774367906320464} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.787457535998406, "platformFee": 8.809634112909501, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gergar | 1719760068766 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709210946833 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ดโโ ๏ธ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1714063796352}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1714063796354}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c... | ["one-piece-stocks", "manga", "one-piece-theories", "anime", "one-piece-stocks-a199b0b82462"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719760065722 | 1714291694297 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5308638870625213 | nEvDdvc7zXbbSl2ZktJh | {"NO": 162.41076424883695, "YES": 156.67039893847524} | 0.5398148218145254 | will-imu-flood-the-world | 50 | Will Imu Flood the World? | 1735667460000 | 0tLWYjPMN4W3C2jRmeUGqwAlLAl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714063915428 | Clayton Hampson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8336540310767703, "platformFee": 0.8336540310767703, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | ClaytonHampson | 1714166072502 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKg5mcVb-UpNhRL8tS526So3Ibx7cpwnKkzvaeCH5V7FX9Iv6U=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1714063776608 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ดโโ ๏ธ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1714063915996}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1714063916157}] | ["one-piece-stocks", "one-piece-theories"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714166069258 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GWY9mXVwIck6CeA6ElkT | what-government-positions-will-pete | 642.2493398254489 | What government positions will Pete Buttigieg hold for any length of time in the rest of his life? | 2556161940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1714063931615 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting from this market's creation. Terms used refer to the United States presidency, congress, states, and so on in whatever their most obvious normal meaning is. Note that this market refers to time served, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.510053270123727, "platformFee": 4.580524890123886, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Panfilo | 1719863588983 | 0 | 12 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "fb94f2e6d18c", "prob": 0.22243485697035456, "text": "President", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.22545037777751, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 154.59883004366625, "textFts": "'presid':1", "contractId": "GWY9mXVwIck6CeA6ElkT", "createdTime": 1714063931615, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714063931866}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธโ๐ LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1714063931869}, {"name": "๐ด๐ผ Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6... | ["politics-default", "lgbtqia", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "celebrities"] | 0.25 | 1719863581171 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5552865538144924 | ueJXgsFoRPCTDf59CLbB | {"NO": 720.2358620138016, "YES": 46.986260235213194} | 0.9503474393901366 | will-inside-out-2-have-a-rotten-tom | 609.4777191619844 | Will "Inside Out 2" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >15 percentage points higher than "Despicable Me 4"? | 1721285940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714064040073 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rotten Tomatoes pages:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Inside Out 2\" (2024) ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.07076583094224509, "month": 0.1887765172986663} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.3165853836524635, "platformFee": 1.2523115844064208, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Ziddletwix | 1720022806853 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1714064040291}, {"name": "๐จ Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1714064040295}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupI... | ["television-film", "culture-default", "entertainment", "boxoffice", "movies"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720022803681 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3776029792712454 | XPYvWhdUMLxJAihRPlG9 | {"NO": 68.89764365518431, "YES": 2685.6845638931827} | 0 | will-small-boat-crossings-be-down-y | 2902.1732976482303 | Will small boat crossings be down year-on-year by the time the UKโs Parliament is dissolved for a general election? | 1717086075005 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714064264359 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We are a few months away from a general election in the UK (for an election timetable - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.883288473076083, "platformFee": 7.982339558773441, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717086075005 | 280 | SimonGrayson | 1717086075005 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1714064275999}, {"name": "๐ฌ๐ง UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1714064280901}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-de... | ["uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024", "politics-default", "immigration", "refugees"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717086050858 | 1717086041579 | 0.02 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | MOhyGf0X0iQ3ZQbkQcxB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-7f00bc051fe4 | 0 | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll before Trump announces his Vice President Running Mate? | 1714065274878 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714667 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1714065262097 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714065274878 | 100 | strutheo | 1714065274878 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | True | 0 | [{"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714065262452}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714065262468}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | xzjtZqFpHYDB17llArsH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-trump-announce-his-vice-presid-40fc652e4ff1 | 0 | Will Trump announce his Vice President Running mate before Biden overtakes him on 538's national poll? | 1714065770586 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714667 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1714065334073 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714065770586 | 100 | strutheo | 1714065770586 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | True | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714065334239}, {"name": "๐ด๐ผ Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1714065334254}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgo... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714065347752 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gF6OhHi8qhEWfe9981VA | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-66a85ca4fd09 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Cenk Uyger? | 1714224876265 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714066905815 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714224900880 | strutheo | 1714224877577 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714066906004}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714066906006}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", ... | ["us-politics", "future-us-presidents", "polls", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1714145126426 | ["348f67224c86"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LEbpNDtY9DCt5l7XjP24 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-c49397852133 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Jesus? | 1714079544761 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714066928969 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714079581193 | strutheo | 1714079546366 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714066929147}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714066929211}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "create... | ["polls", "future-us-presidents", "donald-trump", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | ["6afc1cbb84c6"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YLCtXKzb4KAhXVZcYLxy | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-29f360e428be | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Harvey Weinstein? | 1715832624881 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714066974185 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715832660995 | strutheo | 1715832626990 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714066974388}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714066974387}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", ... | ["polls", "future-us-presidents", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1714313674081 | ["523bfd9de667"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xpi9CZ8oOKdYPgXj6lMi | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-59e9cdf34544 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Gannondorf? | 1715359347023 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714067001988 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715359380451 | strutheo | 1715359349195 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714067002159}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714067002161}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 17140... | ["polls", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | ["57c9da2abecf"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24bl29Fcg6ocz2Geq9Cq | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-9a305c6ea971 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Georgia Meloni? | 1714493682985 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714067028420 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714493700792 | strutheo | 1714493685466 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714067028626}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714067028624}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", ... | ["future-us-presidents", "polls", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | ["78dd40265a2f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qkjZB5wdN3fIs4McI3Ky | {"NO": 67.28078860872532, "YES": 148.63083811569874} | 0.31161262424555886 | will-us-tiktok-post-divestitur-be-o | 50 | Will US TIKTOK (Post divestitur) be operating in India before 2026? | 1767243540000 | eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714069286083 | Alex Litzenberger | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3691618843012585, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | alexlitz | 1717250229404 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1693450992990 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok Ban", "slug": "tiktok-ban", "groupId": "cdb620e7-b50a-44ee-8a56-024a0af9f040", "createdTime": 1714069286277}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1714069286281}] | ["tiktok-ban", "tiktok"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717250226240 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5NN3qe7VK5m7S92wkjMn | in-what-ways-will-manifold-be-like | 2166.2631173532054 | In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year? | 1735707540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714071083856 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Manifold is pivoting to a new business model based on real cash prizes under a sweepstakes model. In the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "pivot announcement", "type": "text", "marks":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.734112863160654, "platformFee": 18.813219253864734, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685 | dglid | 1717743193808 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 20 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d882f7c1d35e", "prob": 0.34984674849552816, "text": "Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.3246306801222, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.81498593211958, "textFts": "'1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714071084377}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1714071084380}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "grou... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-users", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | 1717743190697 | 1715908137057 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S | how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o | 1554.2677864353523 | How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated? | 1717192202184 | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 652a63223765 | public | 1714071220329 | Snarflak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is convicted of a felony, the timer starts at the earliest ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "datetime", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": " timestamp of sites like the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"},... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.86509235103405, "platformFee": 2.1700624895696556, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717192202184 | 495 | Snarflak | 1717192202184 | 0 | 10 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "652a63223765", "prob": 0.9584437998762015, "text": "Less than 1 minute", "index": 0, "poolNo": 566.2617170114138, "userId": "4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.551971891947687, "textFts": "'1':3 'less':1 'minut':4", "contractId": "AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S", "resolverId": "4awgG8uHiJeyHs... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702869818126 | 0 | [{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1714071220582}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714071220599}, {"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "cr... | ["trump-indictments", "donald-trump", "wikipedia"] | 0.25 | 1717104919248 | 1717104087161 | {"652a63223765": 100} | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jU6MYBsuSqvlzyBvfMzU | when-will-the-first-nuclear-explosi | 0 | When will the first nuclear explosion happen on the moon? | 1714712340000 | BhYTw8AB2uUPk4f9Pz2DCUwlNXk2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714071432121 | Dallas Schmidt | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714712340981 | DallasSchmidt | 1714085982780 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL5U4HJ1xZs2R-_nlsRAKzjPKoS_GP3lSiNvY-aGq_U=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708699677720 | 0 | [{"name": "โข๏ธ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1714071432328}, {"name": "๐ Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1714071432327}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1714... | ["nuclear", "moon", "space"] | 0.25 | 1714085981888 | ["c0bfb86c46b1"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6502088820726419 | XBMbxzJwizvpKCRLlW1m | {"NO": 426.8809820346471, "YES": 187.8781024897996} | 0.808558287387724 | will-an-llm-with-less-than-10b-para | 340 | Will an LLM with less than 10B parameters beat GPT4 by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714071500206 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much juice is left in 10B parameters?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the original GPT4-0314 (ELO 1188)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.009804339953695562} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.972360869960193, "platformFee": 3.1263237528262438, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | Sss19971997 | 1718580594279 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1714071500516}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1714071500509}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07d... | ["gpt4-speculation", "technical-ai-timelines", "llms"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718580591215 | 1714089094837 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2603075031145939 | Wm079i8z4UpaLdxQAo1X | {"NO": 1011.3552880626229, "YES": 915.6146796392787} | 0.27990760578851037 | will-bayer-leverkusen-win-the-20242 | 516.479921824696 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.583921636663876 | False | basic | public | 1714072616049 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.04928851569653206} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.753138109381029, "platformFee": 3.927431269357062, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UniversalFC | 1718978986493 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "โฝ ๐ Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714072616237}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714072616248}, {"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xy... | ["football", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer", "sports-default", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718978983448 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6430330341248774 | JXCBlhekZVLlHS1pmX0b | {"NO": 887.3206363191715, "YES": 1054.2176005205524} | 0.6025748065461205 | will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-b | 1349.1964866039355 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.601103342812689 | False | basic | public | 1714072634075 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.026993011491976637} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.016985062943572, "platformFee": 17.201445072002684, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UniversalFC | 1718974929707 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714072634355}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714072634327}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1714072634... | ["soccer", "sports-default", "germany", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "football"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718974926649 | 1714398020179 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16885408585054432 | HfngfUaz31xNlv6AMsW2 | {"NO": 74.30563751496845, "YES": 758.1873783661347} | 0.01952169408213983 | will-vfb-stuttgart-win-the-202425-b | 777.9819710301035 | Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714072656527 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.001680387124472934} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.728891450143862, "platformFee": 2.6504459764344994, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | UniversalFC | 1718917056188 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714072656701}, {"name": "โฝ ๐ Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714072656700}, {"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xy... | ["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "football", "soccer", "sports-default", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718917053032 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2728367241119964 | NUlElPAtjna0ios0Sos1 | {"NO": 61.70787650904454, "YES": 500.5498219358119} | 0.04421059808025022 | will-rb-leipzig-win-the-202425-bund | 608.5183207392334 | Will RB Leipzig win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714072700311 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 0.0024441705511225043} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.758755949686744, "platformFee": 2.1731013752677706, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | UniversalFC | 1718916617927 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714072700477}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714072700480}, {"name": "โฝ ๐ Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CY... | ["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "sports-default", "football", "germany", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718916614725 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.299915794619098 | kF7RpWbU2ppIKT58xJAB | {"NO": 83.81276518573387, "YES": 243.05986726711254} | 0.1287090730868491 | will-borussia-dortmund-win-the-2024 | 350.14836204242295 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714072731120 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.036755639734449466} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.879395757077188, "platformFee": 2.320028615285213, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | UniversalFC | 1718975019107 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1714072731272}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714072731276}, {"name": "โฝ ๐ Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbK... | ["germany", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "football", "sports-default", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718975016056 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17318872517110595 | SR81UMPtrWrvsc7m2JR3 | {"NO": 50.50050330219087, "YES": 991.6763909087377} | 0.01055433579133949 | will-eintracht-frankfurt-win-the-20 | 936.9490106528517 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2024/25 Bundesliga? | 1779767940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714072764749 | Universal FC โฝ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": -1.734723475976807e-18, "month": 0.0004876757987686709} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7017210434431895, "platformFee": 2.6728773949674287, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | UniversalFC | 1718917533711 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714072764925}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714072764919}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5Hn... | ["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "sports-default", "germany", "football", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718917530499 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QCug4dqsD0r5lqfxAc1s | how-much-will-it-cost-to-create-a-y | 2703.897547976695 | How much will it cost to create a Yes/No question on June 1st, 2024? | 1717214340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1714072769092 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Pivot Announcement:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393", "class": "break-anywhere hover:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.85901887827705, "platformFee": 13.10552160340967, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717239958412 | 1000 | dglid | 1717214340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "219f1103d3b2", "prob": 0.02, "text": "M100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.183858149011485, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 576.9500570724463, "textFts": "'m100':1", "contractId": "QCug4dqsD0r5lqfxAc1s", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "create... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1714072769355}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714072769349}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "gro... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-drama", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 1717202968001 | 1714422500239 | 0.02 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19828339198459985 | O3E0mLBIU92417KQfFWr | {"NO": 181.97957129391096, "YES": 4399.634201134335} | 0 | will-the-next-uk-general-election-b-cea0584490d5 | 4754.443488126161 | Will the next UK general election be announced on Monday 29th April 2024? | 1714455159383 | G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714073542200 | GM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES if a UK general election is called on 29 April 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.014267286987817, "platformFee": 12.014267286987817, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714455159383 | 400 | GtothaM | 1714455159383 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703010438797 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1714073542477}, {"name": "๐ฌ๐ง UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1714073542502}] | ["uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714426796575 | 1714140082453 | 0.01 | G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uupocHXvXPHkrCpmlpkw | what-will-the-highest-temperature-i | 1384.5626551422397 | What will the highest temperature in NYC be in May 2024? | 1717214340000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 49974301b2d0 | public | 1714074740211 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the highest recorded temperature in Central Park in New York City during the month of May 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source of the data will be ", "t... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.479569837314337, "platformFee": 12.065004670761812, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717239950324 | 180 | SteveSokolowski | 1717214340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1f3048163189", "prob": 0.005404568387533958, "text": "65-67", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.2569452045223635, "userId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 231.31393083834567, "textFts": "'-67':2 '65':1", "contractId": "uupocHXvXPHkrCpmlpkw", "resolverId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "cr... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "๐งฎ Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1714074740641}, {"name": "๐ง๏ธ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1714074740655}, {"name": "New York", "slug": "new-york", "groupId": "WHYL7vwzRusHiIbe3uRu", "createdTime": 1714074740... | ["mathematics", "weather", "new-york", "climate"] | 0.25 | 1717093110154 | 1717239826194 | {"49974301b2d0": 100} | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lNrhS32vjDPKyapzUpku | which-chess-player-will-have-the-be | 309.5021708094202 | Which chess player will have the best tournament performance (TPR) in 2024? | 1735685940000 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076094532 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Performance rating in chess is the level a player performed at in a tournament or match based on the number of games played, their total score in those games, and the Elo ratings of their opponents. More info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.954323083809678, "platformFee": 4.159840038109761, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 425 | Weezing | 1719784830165 | 0 | 10 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8bcbc33673e1", "prob": 0.11379863520615027, "text": "Magnus Carlsen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.341985409712244, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 251.86164630453095, "textFts": "'carlsen':2 'magnus':1", "contractId": "lNrhS32vjDPKyapzUpku", "createdTime": 1714076094532, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714076094829}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1714076094846}, {"name": "โ๏ธ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 171... | ["sports-default", "board-games", "chess", "magnus-carlsen"] | 0.25 | 1719784826992 | 1714154802674 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002219088994405 | WrmSyXt90J2sQTtEGrHv | {"NO": 139.11355367838246, "YES": 140.88861519268463} | 0.4970521724540425 | mysterious-market-1 | 49.184392791979825 | Mysterious market 1 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076448620 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.039855231665298585} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5066041120862956, "platformFee": 0.1012969725593938, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1718620329344 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718620326246 | 1718620313397 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49749523750326485 | KHXcuzZj1CwCimM8pWkN | {"NO": 148.709755875685, "YES": 131.70961367544967} | 0.5278156820951325 | mysterious-market-2 | 14.869178022632587 | Mysterious market 2 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076459692 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03375488062238019} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.41431859711774865, "platformFee": 0.08331485960311678, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1718620194475 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718620185694 | 1718620193477 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002219088994411 | xLTGgaFCrDq8JLaS7mfK | {"NO": 140.96411141181744, "YES": 139.04067876685593} | 0.5036565401443147 | mysterious-market-3 | 4.866760430164844 | Mysterious market 3 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076469920 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08456407900882561, "platformFee": 0.08456407900882561, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1714848164776 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714848161389 | 1714076997661 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4972649056550724 | FWvOOlIZ3II854qNCJnr | {"NO": 140.67814089176562, "YES": 139.30724340822826} | 0.4997130569815326 | mysterious-market-4 | 19 | Mysterious market 4 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076479425 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02470823363667768} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4423887082897799, "platformFee": 0.20015535018220906, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1718620348000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718620344934 | 1714077055138 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008014240919119 | wqsQ50eDaOE10zoAWjcc | {"NO": 863.5255291705525, "YES": 16.781273932644183} | 1 | mysterious-market-5 | 1370.5257916824862 | Will Tumbles reach negative one million in lifetime profit? | 1720044585779 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1714076488847 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mysterious market number 5 has evolved!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "At this time my lifetime profit is -700k.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.4951916407446162, "month": 0.4951916407446162} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.96847373809652, "platformFee": 0.01682964650963103, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720044585779 | 120 | Tumbles | 1720044679121 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720043557266 | 1720040613520 | 0.98 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008014240919123 | H1UTZmxSO1Zhm9d192CF | {"NO": 120.96634070698074, "YES": 119.04290806201918} | 0.504808359255384 | mysterious-market-6 | 1 | Mysterious market 6 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076498196 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.01682964650963103, "platformFee": 0.01682964650963103, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tumbles | 1714077289366 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714077286126 | 1714077279861 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49919857590808775 | uDoXVzjuZYZWZ3Jx6XQG | {"NO": 119.04290806201915, "YES": 120.96634070698072} | 0.495191640744616 | mysterious-market-7 | 1 | Mysterious market 7 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076508718 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.01682964650963103, "platformFee": 0.01682964650963103, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tumbles | 1714077100768 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714077096889 | 1714077100295 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49998723483441615 | LEfoTqaksIrA9iIh9rGZ | {"NO": 139.99106478330728, "YES": 140.00893601514505} | 0.49995532192058395 | mysterious-market-8 | 2 | Mysterious market 8 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076520185 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03381566994669311, "platformFee": 0.03381566994669311, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1714077213343 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714077210094 | 1714077127297 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4991985759080882 | wI3cDXqBuni7zzhVNTB7 | {"NO": 119.04290806201917, "YES": 120.96634070698073} | 0.49519164074461647 | mysterious-market-9 | 1 | Mysterious market 9 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076529811 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.01682964650963103, "platformFee": 0.01682964650963103, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tumbles | 1714077159953 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714077153994 | 1714077159513 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5053075510540055 | Fii9CqUIfjvacj0cuc4V | {"NO": 143.73714512302942, "YES": 136.39748018299588} | 0.518402678760966 | mysterious-market-10 | 26 | Mysterious market 10 | 1735718340000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076540049 | Tumbles โ ๏ธ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very mysterious", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQvT4_pWtkI.png?alt=media&token=32ff806e-9ca9-43f8-9428-1979cdf817... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.034416304840818424} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6069927145930537, "platformFee": 0.2697079614155173, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tumbles | 1718840621719 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718840618668 | 1714077296573 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0YKtXdZrPN4AsjBFvguM | ideogramai-image-creation-sota-meta | 10 | Ideogram.ai image creation SOTA meta-market | 1746255540000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714076575400 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14235677576048322, "platformFee": 0.14235677576048322, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 275 | Ernie | 1714430399508 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "075f286eedf7", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Ideogram 2.0 will be out by end July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'2.0':2 '2024':9 'end':7 'ideogram':1 'juli':8", "contractId": "0YKtXdZrPN4AsjBFvguM", "createdTime": 1714076575400, ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Ideogram", "slug": "ideogram", "groupId": "ff8bebf4-221d-4b7a-b499-5f8d52d4f6c0", "createdTime": 1714076575697}] | ["ideogram"] | 0.25 | 1714430396259 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7531226494847988 | vqAqfp80AtWMGhudFKdx | {"NO": 1383.5823575877273, "YES": 826.2352766189728} | 0.8362912760375567 | will-spend-on-generative-ai-exceed | 650.9144119185975 | Will spend on Generative AI exceed $25 billion in 2024? | 1735707540000 | QU1coOVRnmQgwasyjaaVaF2yTNj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.71930366705124 | False | basic | public | 1714076786971 | Michele Zanini | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Forrester's Global AI Software Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forrester.com/report/global-ai-software-forecast-2023-to-2030/RES179806#:~:text=From%202023%20to%202030%2C%20the,healthcare%20tools%2C... | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.129805408100795, "platformFee": 7.129805408100795, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MicheleZanini | 1714432178272 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLoZi53nLVYLmb5yxtdcwVoN0FnaydeUHcLCu1QJKgqahg=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700569361245 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714076787152}, {"name": "๐ค AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714076787163}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 171... | ["technology-default", "ai", "ai-impacts"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714432175028 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VtTZTKKYdP82G7t3ZuwI | who-will-receive-oscar-nominations | 67 | Who will receive Oscar nominations for Best Actor at the 97th Academy Awards? | 1738483140000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714077000807 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 97th Academy Awardsโcurrently scheduled for March 2nd, 2025โwill honor movies released in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "c... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.906102497102659, "platformFee": 0.906102497102659, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | Ziddletwix | 1715691057364 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "914c727c65c", "prob": 0.7962773727860247, "text": "Colman Domingo - Sing Sing", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.42566963692576, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.762126989792893, "textFts": "'colman':1 'domingo':2 'sing':3,4", "contractId": "VtTZTKKYdP82G7t3ZuwI", "createdTime"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Oscars 2025", "slug": "oscars-2025-4a86926910f3", "groupId": "50cfe509-b631-439d-af7f-448bf5958ca4", "createdTime": 1714077001188}, {"name": "๐จ Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1714077001212}, {"name": "Oscars", "slug": "oscars", "groupId": "b86fa4c8-87e... | ["oscars-2025-4a86926910f3", "culture-default", "oscars", "movies", "television-film"] | 0.25 | 1715691054094 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yuQ6bDzS1iICqy7PG99N | who-will-receive-oscar-nominations-df4a71b57a48 | 714.4593141228775 | Who will receive Oscar nominations for Best Actress at the 97th Academy Awards? | 1738483140000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714077146325 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 97th Academy Awardsโcurrently scheduled for March 2nd, 2025โwill honor movies released in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "c... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.76832260059936, "platformFee": 2.0064641464410338, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 490 | Ziddletwix | 1717278911326 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "92ea69e0fe27", "prob": 0.3292597852901323, "text": "Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie ร Deux", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.0714427125033, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.59304186181208, "textFts": "'deux':6 'foli':4 'gaga':2 'joker':3 'ladi':1 'ร ':5", "contractId": "yuQ6bDzS1iICqy... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅ Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714077146565}, {"name": "๐จ Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1714077146575}, {"name": "Oscars", "slug": "oscars", "groupId": "b86fa4c8-87ee-45d4-bf71-1cea8a0acdc3", "createdT... | ["movies", "culture-default", "oscars", "oscars-2025-4a86926910f3", "television-film"] | 0.25 | 1717278908209 | 1717222413664 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34163301938491497 | Rj9yDrFZcto3WlRHYl1d | {"NO": 844.7111483120798, "YES": 1359.0214580867705} | 0.24387501060168534 | what-percentage-of-manifold-users-w-cf15d173add7 | 539.7879742533142 | What percentage of Manifold users will consider themselves "woke" on Nov 1, 2024? | 1725321540000 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.644875888913516 | False | basic | public | 1714077256643 | Bjorn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Oct. 15 2024 I will start a poll and link it here. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The poll will consist of a single question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.09025541727529965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.54946540093143, "platformFee": 2.671532493773555, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | brp | 1718901637638 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652167878900 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714077256807}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1714077256823}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "grou... | ["us-politics", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "culture-war"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718865131626 | 1718901636523 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | 544734.828882815 | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | 1717786799000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.864563293036968 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1714077635536 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/furiosa_a_mad_max_saga", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2553.351564557171, "platformFee": 2553.351564557171, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717787174819 | 51245 | Ziddletwix | 1719964322168 | 0 | 385 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cd4665798487", "prob": 0.99, "text": ">74%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12500.561534677046, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 129.49612502772885, "textFts": "'74':1", "contractId": "DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "create... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅ Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714077635856}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714077635869}, {"name": "๐บ Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEn... | ["movies", "entertainment", "television-film", "culture-default", "boxoffice"] | 0.25 | 1717785357072 | 1719964320609 | 0.99 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | prob-asc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46961610412003996 | p4zVg8owHHpOvYhDV4vo | {"NO": 120.07648130626323, "YES": 10439.335524453794} | 0 | will-biden-be-leading-in-538s-natio | 12299.84105577033 | Will Biden be ahead of Trump on 538's national poll at the end of Trump's Birthday? (June 14) | 1718422310498 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.073566067682538 | True | basic | NO | public | 1714077695635 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.37574447956933166} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 121.11825200280228, "platformFee": 5.7369794286855695, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718422310498 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718422310498 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714077695782}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714077695790}, {"name": "๐ด๐ผ Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n",... | ["us-politics", "donald-trump", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718411691373 | 1717106421223 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35269593716981773 | MJOAErXnr96lvUxeRlUk | {"NO": 75.49125838799013, "YES": 321.6850754457535} | 0.11337049805310094 | will-we-think-pcposos-successor-of | 185 | Will we think PCPOSOS (Successor of LK-99) was a major achievement towards superconductivity and not a fraud? | 1830315540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714077810953 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently, SCTL got full levitation of PCPOSOS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cjNouFqUHs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.65746227712328, "platformFee": 1.65746227712328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Sss19971997 | 1714170124552 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "โก superconductivity", "slug": "superconductivity", "groupId": "885b1ec2-5cb4-488d-bde7-65bd30d5e3fa", "createdTime": 1714077811188}, {"name": "โก LK-99", "slug": "lk99", "groupId": "8e00e9a7-70cb-4266-9e88-7a45ecd1634e", "createdTime": 1714077811203}] | ["superconductivity", "lk99"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714086695486 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
w3cHStW5RhSxG5VEI0yJ | will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a-a9223a54e544 | 650.2701675929578 | Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) have a Metacritic critics score >X? | 1723359540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714077836299 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Deadpool & Wolverine\" (2024) Metacritic page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/deadpool-wolverine/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.813558731608936, "platformFee": 5.083993317383214, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 480 | Ziddletwix | 1719928102012 | 0 | 10 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "88b8ecebad0c", "prob": 0.8690145633816815, "text": ">50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 164.44959438514064, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.787273804043476, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "w3cHStW5RhSxG5VEI0yJ", "createdTime": 1714077836299, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐จ Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1714077836567}, {"name": "๐ฅ Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714077836569}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lg... | ["culture-default", "movies", "entertainment", "television-film", "boxoffice"] | 0.25 | 1719928098716 | 1714109195435 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23086365402945364 | CvO8Ywzxeoz1eEMnZp00 | {"NO": 949.1352494196041, "YES": 1059.7362208564286} | 0.21187420919841662 | will-elon-bring-back-vine-before-20 | 364 | Will Elon bring back Vine before 2025? | 1735718340000 | d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.652454120102364 | False | basic | public | 1714078057811 | jcb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any use of the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X app or separate from it, including in a limited or beta capacity, will resolve this market YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.035847985668404, "platformFee": 3.0821532590867515, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jcb | 1717576940216 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671557668521 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1714078057980}, {"name": "โ๏ธ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1714078057974}, {"name": "๐ Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"... | ["social-media", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717576937094 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5908863812105571 | XMWL35N1I0Jua7fIfYwt | {"NO": 212.9833346332384, "YES": 125.19717298170102} | 0.7107346827266547 | if-china-launches-a-fullscale-invas | 90 | If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, will exports from China to the US+EU drop by 66%? | 2524636740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714078102065 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if China doesn't launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2050.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if the combined value US+EU imports from China in the first full calendar year fol... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2106483795719607, "platformFee": 1.2106483795719607, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | JonathanRay | 1714605040343 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | [{"name": "๐จ๐ณ China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1714078102210}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "groupId": "2b786f84-e655-456c-b6f9-4022ee9873a3", "createdTime": 1714078102219}, {"name": "Sanctions", "slug": "sanctions", "... | ["china", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "sanctions", "taiwan"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714600647443 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6129649057498361 | Y1WLHycENStDI4MRPzuW | {"NO": 246.95989251832606, "YES": 225.81506751283155} | 0.6339736063442539 | will-openais-next-major-llm-after-g-a5fa8b913137 | 240.16815234852666 | Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark? | 1767340740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714078111696 | Matthew Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark) is designed to evaluate the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in answering complex, expert-level multiple-choice ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011238261344499012} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.810197403989955, "platformFee": 2.9663486866723088, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | MatthewBarnett | 1718902160047 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644893534404 | 0 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1714078111912}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1714078111914}, {"name": "๐ค OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTi... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "llms", "openai", "gpt5"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718902156988 | 1718423297877 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fyKth7TL2vDmnZx8Lzcn | how-many-tokens-does-sora-use-to-en | 41.00000000000002 | How many tokens does Sora use to encode one second of high-resolution video (1920*1080)? (February version) | 1830315540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714078786021 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve when we find out. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they do not use tokens, resolve NA. This situation seems highly unlikely since OpenAI has repeatedly stated that they used Diffusi... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6420505042995095, "platformFee": 1.6420505042995095, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Sss19971997 | 1714240579511 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "984cf585f162", "prob": 0.010468125426569384, "text": "0-200", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3870456324868068, "userId": "8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.11477068758853, "textFts": "'-200':2 '0':1", "contractId": "fyKth7TL2vDmnZx8Lzcn", "createdTime": 1714078786021, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ค OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1714078786395}, {"name": "AI Video Generation", "slug": "ai-video-generation", "groupId": "0f2a410b-532f-4afb-9c68-4f1b890414f9", "createdTime": 1714078786399}, {"name": "OpenAI Sora", "slug": "google-sora", "groupId": "559a6620-... | ["openai", "ai-video-generation", "google-sora"] | 0.25 | 1714098139769 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rFUGyfj95FF7PYbA5Jka | what-will-be-the-difference-in-worl | 2258.1450775774906 | What will be the difference in worldwide gross between "Despicable Me 4" and "Inside Out 2"? | 1728457140000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714078951333 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": BoxOfficeMojoโthe cumulative worldwide grosses displayed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "three months", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " after the release of t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.25233069109502, "platformFee": 0.14235677576048322, "liquidityFee": 0} | 475 | 255 | Ziddletwix | 1720194289513 | 0 | 5 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d947094b432e", "prob": 0.030747743802645763, "text": "> -$150 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.332634112971974, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 168.09908651015598, "textFts": "'150':1 'million':2", "contractId": "rFUGyfj95FF7PYbA5Jka", "createdTime": 1714078951333, "prob... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w", "createdTime": 1714078951836}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714078951838}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId"... | ["boxoffice", "entertainment", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "movies", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1720194286433 | 1718486858269 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2958600330707968 | z8QGlTbbVKHur57ei51s | {"NO": 917.1213439817825, "YES": 1159.3452381288691} | 0.24946614300640158 | if-tiktok-is-sold-will-the-algorith | 398.55961938303915 | If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale? | 1735707540000 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60588467800483 | False | basic | public | 1714079673771 | mint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ByteDance sells TikTok (using any type of corporate transaction), and it's addictive algorithm is included in the sale (not just the brand name), this market will resolve YES. If TikTok is sold but the algorithm isn't included, resolves NO. I'll... | BINARY | {"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.571787880113706, "platformFee": 5.571787880113706, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mint | 1714505197241 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697647723543 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1714079673923}, {"name": "๐ Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1714079673930}, {"name": "TikTok Ban", "slug": "tiktok-ban", "groupId": "cdb620e7-b50a-44ee-8a56-024a0af... | ["social-media", "geopolitics", "tiktok-ban", "tiktok"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714505193654 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XfoFu9rtDIGRUAnNMvlO | do-you-have-a-problem-with-people-b | 0 | Do you have a problem with people being transsexual or affirming they are of another gender than their assigned sex ? | NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1714079761459 | dionisos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(\"assigned sex at birth\", but it was too long for the title)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please answer honestly or don't answer, and please let people be honest and share their own opinion on it (which doesn't mean we shou... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | dionisos | 1714080284662 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678431021888 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jjJsoGNUeNY7IcsgXimW | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-a9285265456b | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Dolores Umbridge? | 1716014019686 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714079821649 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716014040394 | strutheo | 1716014022259 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714079821826}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714079821827}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", ... | ["future-us-presidents", "us-politics", "polls", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1714171106340 | ["c1f4d8a500d4"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X8QLbUKO7yyaCpWEgOPt | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-0171a9976328 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Gollum/Smeagol? | 1715669254739 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714079839422 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715669280394 | strutheo | 1715669255966 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714079839603}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714079839605}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 17140... | ["us-politics", "polls", "donald-trump", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | 1714944010221 | ["37464c5d2fc2"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ISb0LPhfVQ6ekcKRc7DC | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-40382b96d678 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Tucker Carlsen? | 1716610989920 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714079866161 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716611041113 | strutheo | 1716610992026 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714079866323}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714079866321}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 17140... | ["polls", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | 1715845103142 | ["4f08055253d1"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g8K5bK5TzAby7BIrIvcW | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-e8ac3f1fefae | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Cedric the Entertainer? | 1714101503590 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714079898440 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714101540529 | strutheo | 1714101505427 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714079898597}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714079898604}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 17140... | ["us-politics", "donald-trump", "polls", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | ["b79c97792ba6"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nRwp2gKlgekZ6b4kmefM | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-29c4056cf855 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Chat GPT? | 1714155759003 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1714079932934 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714155780259 | strutheo | 1714155759901 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1714079933134}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1714079933140}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", ... | ["polls", "future-us-presidents", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1714094795807 | ["d5a6d12f048e"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0jnZEIugHB6aroaHWOuT | will-home-team-win-april-27-2024-ma | 15136.542749540176 | Will home team win? (April 27, 2024 matches) โฝ๐๏ธ | 1714284000000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1714079952405 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "โฝ Will home team win? ( April 26, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Friday, April 26, 2024. The matches featured in thi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.776494149003604, "platformFee": 59.776494149003604, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714435463950 | 3435 | FranklinBaldo | 1714284000000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 21 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "bbb90b3ff317", "prob": 0.01, "text": "11:30 - West Ham vs Liverpool - Premier League ๐ฌ๐ง", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.105106837828075, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1891.4055769449765, "textFts": "'11':1 '30':2 'ham':4 'leagu':8 'liverpool':6 'premier':7 'vs':5 'west':3"... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714079952812}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1714260856241 | 1714424869789 | 0.17 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OrLYZ4e5J99n0pGDJzlE | how-much-will-furiosa-a-mad-max-sag | 10215.340442162335 | How much will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1717085395795 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1714080402376 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo for \"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.88309533328346, "platformFee": 15.291704570230063, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717085395795 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1717085437371 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "1735c14f6f16", "prob": 0, "text": ">$30 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.451503303327172, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2067.1073449590554, "textFts": "'30':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OrLYZ4e5J99n0pGDJzlE", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeG... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714080402721}, {"name": "๐บ Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1714080402725}, {"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "I... | ["entertainment", "television-film", "boxoffice", "movies", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1716939628762 | 1717085435473 | 0.99 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eVSQtdSKZVtGOg27uFm6 | what-will-be-true-of-manifests-musi | 1278.502814831038 | What will be true of Manifest's music installation? | 1717916340000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1714080620047 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if it doesn't happen.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.965395471274911, "platformFee": 3.928180186201362, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717993300362 | 1000 | ian | 1717916340000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1fbddc7145ee", "prob": 0.78, "text": "Sound plays on every new bet placed on Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 118.08400986949447, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.30574637344731, "textFts": "'bet':6 'everi':4 'manifold':9 'new':5 'place':7 'play':2 'sound':1", "contract... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714080620386}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1714080620403}, {"name": "๐ฎ Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717741396150 | 1717958803118 | 0.81 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OVPsNCEhVYON3bUvvjsy | who-was-the-better-man | 0 | Who was the better man? | 1716699540000 | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714080636136 | houstonEuler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This entire comment seemed really odd, so I thought I'd poll Manifold to see what it's users think about the last part.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716699541197 | houstonEuler | 1714265583562 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695777809174 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฆ Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714080636577}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714080636581}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9N... | ["economics-default", "politics-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "history"] | 0.25 | 1714265581707 | ["8c2eed7c205c"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P0NS40HUxm1xj8GC0XcI | who-was-the-better-leader | 0 | Who was the better leader? | 1716699540000 | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714080792398 | houstonEuler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Another comment that struck me as odd.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FE1BFplIpHo.jpg?alt=media&token=4a66f2ea-ec... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716699541197 | houstonEuler | 1714626276447 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695777809174 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714080792564}, {"name": "History", "slug": "history", "groupId": "J32Si3DhXq2184I9k4PB", "createdTime": 1714080792560}, {"name": "๐ฆ Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "create... | ["us-politics", "history", "economics-default", "japan"] | 0.25 | 1714626275048 | ["42c703457e6c"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
L4wiZ3OtSdSvxQbyKFGA | the-next-chess-world-champion-after | 570.5199990238815 | The next chess world champion after Ding | 1840949940000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714081449420 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4948641938959915, "platformFee": 4.0280823205511815, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 680 | Ernie | 1720131514559 | 0 | 11 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "23f05f78d5fb", "prob": 0.750943145827787, "text": "Will be Indian", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.37766528964956, "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.93937563210312, "textFts": "'indian':3", "contractId": "L4wiZ3OtSdSvxQbyKFGA", "createdTime": 1714081449420, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 World Chess Championship", "slug": "2024-world-chess-championship", "groupId": "82bbe890-f64b-464b-9a21-7858dafbc5a5", "createdTime": 1714081449859}, {"name": "โ๏ธ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1714081449903}] | ["2024-world-chess-championship", "chess"] | 0.25 | 1720131511501 | 1714379477536 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27618605292812654 | lPtkxI8ynQISLFNBNTO4 | {"NO": 46.69663486969877, "YES": 1763.987793913474} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-be-above-5050-at-th | 2140.790193209284 | Will the S&P 500 be above 5050 at the end of April 2024? | 1714520056712 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714081616691 | PedroA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.578982080392207, "platformFee": 12.578982080392207, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714520056712 | 320 | pa | 1714520056712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687393389344 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฆ Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714081616830}, {"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1714081616826}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21... | ["economics-default", "stocks", "sp-500-changes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714515406894 | 1714509304370 | 0.01 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7662410377372539 | 9fZT2bGy9LuBiozaj6Af | {"NO": 7411.695177764334, "YES": 322.6975839394978} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-be-above-5000-at-th-788b8f3e3399 | 7645.482092910174 | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of April 2024? | 1714520069325 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1714081635549 | PedroA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.14111970339167, "platformFee": 17.14111970339167, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714520069325 | 780 | pa | 1714520069325 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687393389344 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1714081635794}, {"name": "๐ฆ Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714081635796}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21... | ["stocks", "economics-default", "sp-500-changes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714510674974 | 0.99 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64vbCFZyiAcl6iZbhPTt | test-d83208851cdc | 0 | Test | 253392530340000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714081738886 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1714081739122 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "dcbeb54da509", "prob": 0.5, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "64vbCFZyiAcl6iZbhPTt", "createdTime": 1714081738886, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTim... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1714081739122}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jE23CcfHOx9RLpEX0bwP | would-manifold-users-rather-do-mana | 0 | Would Manifold users rather do Mana or Spice as a drug? | 1715669290285 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714081892021 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "joCplyRwi5d9ycZaLpDe", "label": "/strutheo/would-manifold-rather-smoke-mana-or-866eaf704ecd"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Assume both are fictional drugs, not the real world ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715669340405 | strutheo | 1715669291867 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1714081892202}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1714081892256}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": ... | ["drugs", "manifold-users", "mana", "spice", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | ["b6b9b193440e"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38184718738208 | 4SL64fy5PGJ45dJK2ecc | {"NO": 169.34568633991367, "YES": 239.7994169867432} | 0.3037347502526901 | mlb-player-or-team-punished-for-ill | 160 | MLB player or team punished for illegal during-game use of AI by mid 2027 | 1814425140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714082509551 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either a player with a secret implant to hear an LLM or other way to get info, etc. the offense must have allegedly occurred during the game. Including non-playing but still in dugout staff", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1183269856516387, "platformFee": 2.1183269856516387, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | Ernie | 1714387217116 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "AI in Sports", "slug": "ai-in-sports", "groupId": "e4219792-75e1-4990-8fc5-1b4a7b452450", "createdTime": 1714082509719}, {"name": "โพ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1714082509736}, {"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "createdTime"... | ["ai-in-sports", "baseball", "mlb", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714387213684 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5067681131792596 | eM0CKJLLgE4GN8XmH8FG | {"NO": 81.89268457665503, "YES": 306.7717206844513} | 0.21524069855561093 | will-manifold-have-established-a-si | 208.91845227781886 | Will Manifold have established a significant presence on Instagram and TikTok by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | fAsHgJqeXyPJxTvybQdkpyXH3hG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714082676610 | sarius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Okay - lots of talk about the pivot, but not much talk (unless I missed it) on how to make Manifold more well-known/popular/less niche. This seems like low-hanging fruit (like idk hire a capable intern or a part-timer to do cool stuff online). This... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.408347310691087, "platformFee": 2.408347310691087, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | sarius | 1714850431851 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OEwli91yrMjAQuMBTHhcrSxQph8Kv5QKWuDCUqg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1675145919754 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1714082676848}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714082676850}, {"name": "Pivot", "slug": "pivot", "groupId": "825a042c-ac... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714850426674 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | eFHqefQWE6zdoh2lJ7gw | {"NO": 113.49955928851698, "YES": 88.10606898111307} | 0.5629781284514594 | fuck-around-and-find-out-stock | 54.83899237029821 | Fuck around and find out stock | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714082713466 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I created this just to test something which kinda makes it a great stock for the concept of fucking around and finding out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.97632215979734, "platformFee": 0.6851261813874865, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1717391313921 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1714082714762}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1714082715058}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a... | ["nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "all-stonks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717391310682 | 1714156005051 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48988698628197386 | tHHRVeUUeJfaInK9RHZ6 | {"NO": 788.8149112152759, "YES": 1245.5140248215123} | 0.3781919763796564 | will-luffy-use-gear-4-before-he-lea | 6637.047616980386 | Will Luffy use gear 4 before he leaves egghead island? | 1720670340000 | qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62193892374195 | False | basic | public | 1714082845261 | Xeni R6 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think Luffy will use gear 4 before heโs on a ship that has departed from egghead. (After he used it against the seraphim).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote NO if you think Luffy will not use gear... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0881919763796562} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 162.1641077003249, "platformFee": 11.363644870447834, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | XeniR6 | 1719594228708 | 0 | 75 | 3 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713568811437 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1714082845480}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1714082845483}, {"name": "Egghead Arc", "slug": "egghead-arc", "groupId": "094380a8-737c-44... | ["manga", "one-piece-theories", "egghead-arc", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719594225631 | 1718856331480 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v0tTV6LqqZjMxKLZpLS4 | what-will-nvidias-nasdaq-nvda-close-fdd19a7897fa | 150.6196470724278 | What will Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) close price be for April 26? | 1714159800000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 46355d4bf715 | public | 1714083324554 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.892027971628773, "platformFee": 6.892027971628773, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714169468439 | 200 | KeenenW | 1714159800000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "490ea29ed808", "prob": 0.0026909488555674154, "text": "790-792.21", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5881027606090125, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 217.96036923738617, "textFts": "'-792.21':2 '790':1", "contractId": "v0tTV6LqqZjMxKLZpLS4", "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWf... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1714083324998}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1714083325000}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1714083... | ["stocks", "ai-stocks", "tech-stocks", "nvidia", "finance"] | 0.25 | 1714159238527 | 1714169433087 | {"46355d4bf715": 100} | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3ctoMJQapiALmu2lgVRq | white-house-correspondents-dinner-m | 68243.31316732198 | White House Correspondents Dinner [Mega Market] ๐ด๐ป๐ค - 5PM PT Saturday | 1714273024732 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1714084183215 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "โ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nerd prom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.c-span.org/white-house-correspondents-dinner-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:dec... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 315.42769322654414, "platformFee": 315.42769322654414, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714273024732 | 15015 | mattyb | 1714273082721 | 0 | 123 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "35fd03bf542f", "prob": 0.9537582966322512, "text": "The word โporn starโ, or the name Stormy Daniels, is said by anyone.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1486.1432228303017, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.05367891924789, "textFts": "'anyon':13 'daniel':9 'name':7 'porn':3 'sai... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Washington DC", "slug": "washington-dc", "groupId": "b54fb8a7-8be8-4f6c-81b3-84efea7be4a3", "createdTime": 1714084183535}, {"name": "๐ด๐ผ Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1714084183546}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b9... | ["washington-dc", "the-life-of-biden", "short-fuse", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1714273022406 | 1714273079942 | 0.08 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WnJD2lf6TAKJYojSwTOR | what-would-be-the-maximal-achievabl | 60 | What would be the maximal achievable bandwidth on B100 nvlink? | 1714622340000 | 4Jmf4jnmetNxNZMOwC2MvN0rpfI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714084221811 | 1234tensor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nvidia claims the bidirectional bandwidth of B100 with Nvlink5 will have a theoretical peak of 1800Gbyte/s ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/nvlink/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href":... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6700756217339304, "platformFee": 0.6700756217339304, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | 1234tensor | 1714124542762 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e7bc084c9372", "prob": 0.061364938100177444, "text": "1300-1400", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.891955821127794, "userId": "4Jmf4jnmetNxNZMOwC2MvN0rpfI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 151.30686760112204, "textFts": "'-1400':2 '1300':1", "contractId": "WnJD2lf6TAKJYojSwTOR", "createdTime": 1714084221812, "probChanges... | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1714080842780 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ค AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714084222172}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1714084222177}] | ["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 1714124539266 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4140027622765059 | RJZgNmDINX5enhU7VVtu | {"NO": 153.97530174876783, "YES": 214.39413865556332} | 0 | will-ea-uc-chile-get-assigned-an-of | 99 | Will EA @ UC Chile get assigned an office by the student government? | 1714708740000 | oq8O6NlqklaCa9WQfWDdIHgA8Ce2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714084486899 | Agus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Engineering school's student government (CAi) allocates offices for student initiatives every year. There is a total of 7 offices, and the allocation is made by contest. We made a strong application, but there appears to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.441340141048021, "platformFee": 1.441340141048021, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716255110340 | 180 | agucova | 1714708740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-w7PQ9sunB62AqBurBomUefakPsjN3yBMv4zMuSW8=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1664221500286 | 0 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1714084487071}, {"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1714084487073}] | ["effective-altruism", "groups-suggestions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714698971433 | 1715635318417 | 0.34 | oq8O6NlqklaCa9WQfWDdIHgA8Ce2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HrN3mOPff0bAjRb0Fmf0 | when-do-we-discover-alien-life | 124.99999999999996 | When do we discover alien life? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714084771913 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/when-do-we-discover-alien-life-2075", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves under the same criteria as RemNi's markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0547109805771293, "platformFee": 3.0547109805771293, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | KeenenW | 1714367237317 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "804699e84781", "prob": 0.002827735400975306, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5856064266650323, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 206.508178396007, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "HrN3mOPff0bAjRb0Fmf0", "createdTime": 1714084771913, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "extraterrestrial life", "slug": "extraterrestrial-life", "groupId": "5883ea76-0cc9-401d-b138-426e3f048e76", "createdTime": 1714084772444}, {"name": "๐งช Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714084772440}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk... | ["extraterrestrial-life", "science-default", "space", "aliens", "discovery-of-alien-life"] | 0.25 | 1714367228521 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4926128491114172 | zoOz86jtrh1YfpuY7Lz3 | {"NO": 175.02168762007662, "YES": 145.8072836328529} | 0.5381937928579654 | will-a-second-assassination-plot-ag | 84 | Will a second assassination plot against Ben-Gvir be publicly identified in 2024? | 1735714740000 | 4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714085480880 | Tracy Harms | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "โBen-Gvir assassination attempt by Palestinians foiled by Israelโ was published by Jerusalem Post: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "APRIL 4, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5676214259565484, "platformFee": 1.2450443572042105, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | TracyHarms | 1716713658251 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712606292629 | 0 | [{"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1714085481049}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1714085481078}, {"name": "๐ชฆ Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "creat... | ["israeli-politics", "crime", "death-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716713654479 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pv6vIFOgt1AbwEuuERbC | when-will-cannabinoid-hyperemesis-s | 20.000000000000004 | When will Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) be cured? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714085532412 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "class": "break-anywhere... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.759541595418693, "platformFee": 0.759541595418693, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | KeenenW | 1714173929165 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c2e5b264ee15", "prob": 0.009867600466339489, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.8115117671547721, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 81.42851912211904, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "Pv6vIFOgt1AbwEuuERbC", "createdTime": 1714085532413, "probChanges... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "๐งช Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714085532871}, {"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714085532876}, {"name": "Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome", "slug": "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-sy... | ["science-default", "technology-default", "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "medicine", "cannabis"] | 0.25 | 1714173924145 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4498730125064496 | Th7k6ePjq3E4zszpdTDt | {"NO": 98.34574394475476, "YES": 809.6874190723853} | 0.09035214528080962 | will-openais-next-major-llm-after-g-58f667810b11 | 1269.9250322381754 | Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) solve more than 2 of the first 5 new Project Euler problems? | 1767340740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714085945072 | Matthew Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Project Euler is a series of challenging mathematical/computer programming problems intended for computational problem-solving using computer algorithms. Each problem requires m... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.22017640651873874} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.289285381404113, "platformFee": 4.896320588478104, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | MatthewBarnett | 1718369849567 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644893534404 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ค OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1714085945218}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1714085945237}, {"name": "Project Euler", "slug": "project-euler", "groupId": "9513b305-55db-4655-9e97-f8e3baab3282", "createdTime... | ["openai", "llms", "project-euler"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718369846519 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R8aMywwhHGqu8ri41iDJ | who-will-medal-in-the-mens-boulderi | 30 | Who will medal in the men's Bouldering & Lead Climbing event at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1735714740000 | ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714087143404 | Weepinbell | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.paris2024.org/en/sport/sport-climbing/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.paris2024.org/en/sport/sport-climbing/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:deco... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8786395465239072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | Weepinbell | 1719272257025 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "848436d0e281", "prob": 0.6584981450481372, "text": "Jakob Schubert (AUT)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.715286448479034, "userId": "ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.00359622345513, "textFts": "'aut':3 'jakob':1 'schubert':2", "contractId": "R8aMywwhHGqu8ri41iDJ", "createdTime": 171408... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680042597895 | 0 | [{"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1714087143640}, {"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1714087143633}, {"name": "Sports Climbing", "slug": "sports-climbing", "groupId": "thgIcCHKidfAnV... | ["olympics", "2024-summer-olympics", "sports-climbing"] | 0.25 | 1719272253927 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
y8JTOy1rYgj3Xk9LSIzx | who-will-medal-in-the-womens-boulde | 173.58107918135377 | Who will medal in the Women's Bouldering & Lead Climbing event at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1735714740000 | ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714087239971 | Weepinbell | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.paris2024.org/en/sport/sport-climbing/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.paris2024.org/en/sport/sport-climbing/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:deco... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7920744994365425, "platformFee": 0.3849649318286103, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Weepinbell | 1719272115627 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "77abbbf17b13", "prob": 0.9180086824755961, "text": "Janja Garnbret (SLO)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 139.7099021275741, "userId": "ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.478094341934336, "textFts": "'garnbret':2 'janja':1 'slo':3", "contractId": "y8JTOy1rYgj3Xk9LSIzx", "createdTime": 171408... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680042597895 | 0 | [{"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1714087240522}, {"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1714087240524}, {"name": "Sports Climbing", "slug": "sports-climbing", "groupId": "thgIcCHKidfAnV... | ["olympics", "2024-summer-olympics", "sports-climbing"] | 0.25 | 1719272112520 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45743373243549 | KlSDwWdVVQeuAo1Hd7lB | {"NO": 436.4425006370295, "YES": 96.62266196069581} | 0.7920233608462129 | will-openais-next-major-llm-after-g-34efa8e38ed7 | 355 | Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities? | 1767340740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714087728290 | Matthew Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Speech-to-speech capabilities in AI involve transforming spoken language input into an understanding that can be processed and then delivering a spoken language output, closely ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.28221418992948644} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.729926427491167, "platformFee": 2.07351603599883, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | MatthewBarnett | 1718146290493 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644893534404 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ค OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1714087728491}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1714087728489}] | ["openai", "llms"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718146287321 | 1714157310032 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB | which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda | 3911.227459826004 | Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040? | 2209093140000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1714087749571 | Pat Scott๐ฉด | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Extant, as in Not Extinct.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When adding to this list, please avoid Possibly Extinct (\"CR(PE)\") and Extinct in the Wild (\"EW\") species, as well as orange-stat... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 72.12468252249577, "platformFee": 2.2837060587726894, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3620 | Stralor | 1719333972779 | 0 | 20 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9b940bd54f85", "prob": 0.7665699724286608, "text": "African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 271.82462656568845, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 82.77395718067038, "textFts": "'african':1 'cycloti':5 'eleph':3 'forest':2 'loxodonta':4", "contra... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1714087749962}, {"name": "Conservation", "slug": "conservation", "groupId": "9a442778-d6b6-4875-94a1-28bd1517a0df", "createdTime": 1714087749966}, {"name": "ecology", "slug": "ecology", "groupId": "29eab5b9-c1ff-42... | ["animals", "conservation", "ecology", "nature"] | 0.25 | 1719333969622 | 1718995728199 | False | liquidity | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P3NZrvcDH4cvLy5YmYpu | how-many-examples-of-works-of-ficti | 32.99999999999998 | How many examples of works of fiction depicting Prediction Markets will be posted here in the comments by Dec 20, 2024? | 1734767940000 | yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714088610821 | Scott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's compile the List of Works of Fiction Depicting Prediction Markets!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any media: Books, s... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5970495661606436, "platformFee": 0.8857958575073345, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | ScottW | 1717043263991 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6a26261c55df", "prob": 0.08684620416879137, "text": "0-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.7428345759368047, "userId": "yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.35443849154646, "textFts": "'-5':2 '0':1", "contractId": "P3NZrvcDH4cvLy5YmYpu", "createdTime": 1714088610821, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710283304803 | 0 | [{"name": "Prediction Markets General Discussion", "slug": "prediction-markets-general-discussi", "groupId": "14d12bcd-c86e-41eb-afa5-7d5def811b14", "createdTime": 1714088611644}, {"name": "๐ Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1714088611647}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction... | ["prediction-markets-general-discussi", "books", "fiction", "rational-fiction", "prediction-market"] | 0.25 | 1717043257460 | 1714088769840 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4922971190015825 | XLWUpCO0LxVj8bOGQw6d | {"NO": 111.17687042103996, "YES": 129.6769383926168} | 0.4539464347705245 | is-diffusion-models-all-you-need-fo | 10 | Is Diffusion Models all you need for image generation? | 1798779540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714089221729 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By EOY 2026, will we still think diffusion model is the best way to generate images? Resolve to public opinion", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16153080369162434, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Sss19971997 | 1714099335889 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714099332470 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2549343645271791 | WJSHvf1dzsMv4tacKjVI | {"NO": 95.01034465116346, "YES": 472.4736179879141} | 0.06437663014993908 | tesla-based-uberlike-service-is-ava-4bc93c61a4eb | 548.2716684858526 | Tesla based Uber-like service is available in the US for at least some normal Tesla owners before mid 2025 | 1751353140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714090007798 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be able to summon a Tesla robotaxi with no driver to drive me somewhere with no driver. The destination has to be at least a mile away and they have to pick me up at my house in San Mateo, CA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0023059024433456296} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1843302783825105, "platformFee": 3.122790595640364, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | Ernie | 1719165842720 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1714090008112}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1714090016098}] | ["tesla", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719165839658 | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.