p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49067064638473673 | feMCq34j29brsNpxBsIc | {"NO": 1502.939356233591, "YES": 2422.330120700307} | 0.3741090268050554 | given-the-recent-allegations-about | 561 | Given the recent allegations about Gala Games, will its GALA token end 2024 higher than the current price of $0.04289 | 1735689540000 | S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.3141071617296 | False | basic | public | 1717183435694 | jon jordan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Long time collaborators Gamedia (developer of Spider Tanks) have called out Gala Games for being \"opportunistic, greedy, and evil\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Read the full statement here. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://gamedia.nl/public-statement-2024-05-28/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gamedia.nl/public-statement-2024-05-28/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given this, will the GALA token end 2024 higher than its current price, as listed on Coingecko?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10703217496437667} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.544066084169135, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1900 | jonjordanc3f0 | 1717788649246 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645481297259 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1717183435867}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717788646120 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Qo3BtBLstlkfidDJyQdR | {"NO": 839.5254187775017, "YES": 1191.1491631262077} | 0.4134219368572914 | will-the-world-record-for-the-major | 650 | Will the world record for the Majora's Mask any% NMG speedrun category be faster than 1:12:00 by the end of 2024? | 1719806340000 | eXVBpsYrtyM8wnH0Kc8wP8SQvDo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57508966587317 | False | basic | public | 1717184319750 | River Dillon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.speedrun.com/mm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.speedrun.com/mm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as the source for times.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.270521906173983, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RiverDillon | 1717201840424 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLwwNFWSMPo6Mk4EhEGk0FljsA1In3KYWDdo8fj4w1Zwjph5A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717183560923 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717184319905}, {"name": "World records", "slug": "world-records", "groupId": "21ca0aab-a0ee-4952-b403-43ced38b62c2", "createdTime": 1717184319911}, {"name": "Speedruns", "slug": "speedruns", "groupId": "omjl6OBz9dBcvuyTxdtr", "createdTime": 1717184319916}] | ["gaming", "world-records", "speedruns"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717201837114 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | u0FUpj0LBNgnvcmamFkI | {"NO": 328.3073696017575, "YES": 3045.9261429708918} | 0.09729835483479726 | will-sign-with-openai-be-announced | 2709.8041132848552 | Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in 2024? | 1735682340000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.773109231449443 | False | basic | public | 1717185763025 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1799725296318574947"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think of OpenAI as the infrastructure layer of AI, similar to AWS with the web. I wonder if they would roll out a feature that allows OpenAI users to sign-in using their accounts to other services and apps similar to how sign-in with Google or Facebook works. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4", "label": "/Soli/will-signin-with-openai-be-announce"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0029258434642212006, "week": -0.0029258434642212006, "month": -0.00457234561459105} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.589589318133804, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | Soli | 1720167162307 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717185763219}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717185763216}] | ["technology-default", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720167159020 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4 | {"NO": 672.0491886797951, "YES": 1487.9863213055053} | 0.31112876875082934 | will-signin-with-openai-be-announce | 5286.417250691851 | Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025? | 1767218340000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.595025362115196 | False | basic | public | 1717185838305 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1799725296318574947"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think of OpenAI as the infrastructure layer of AI, similar to AWS with the web. I wonder if they would roll out a feature that allows OpenAI users to sign-in using their accounts to other services and apps similar to how sign-in with Google or Facebook works. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "u0FUpj0LBNgnvcmamFkI", "label": "/Soli/will-sign-with-openai-be-announced"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.1300685889802833, "month": -0.0498034617897225} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 148.99014490618578, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Soli | 1720114409356 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717185838470}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717185838488}] | ["openai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720114404765 | 1717922696014 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UxIKiCtKeNybXYn5boTA | after-stage-1-of-the-2024-criterium | 400 | After Stage 1 of the 2024 Critérium du Dauphiné, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1717333200000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | moi9ynyt4z | public | 1717186157528 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close two hours after the scheduled start of the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "0cecc6df-639b-4255-96f7-e4c0f762b364", "url": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/en", "image": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/img/global/logo-og.png", "title": "Official website of Critérium du Dauphiné cycling race 2024", "inputKey": "create marketAfter (the final) Stage 21 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia, who will wear the Maglia Rosa?2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd96102107633757f25-5833-41ee-9fd3-806a049981bc2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi8412342c-118e-4622-a79b-d6f2cf001ca6", "deleteNode": null, "description": "All informations of Critérium du Dauphiné cycling race 2024", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.501973844129763, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717348876956 | 1000 | ovals | 1717357229348 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "elz6ex6ucx", "prob": 0.11778859239438919, "text": "Sepp Kuss", "index": 0, "poolNo": 105.48110198320673, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 790.0309322384645, "textFts": "'kuss':2 'sepp':1", "contractId": "UxIKiCtKeNybXYn5boTA", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717186157528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.25, "month": -0.25}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T17:21:31.738", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.25, "resolutionTime": 1717348876956, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.25}, {"id": "jhuk4l1p9u", "prob": 0.11778859239438919, "text": "Primoz Roglic", "index": 1, "poolNo": 105.48110198320673, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 790.0309322384645, "textFts": "'primoz':1 'roglic':2", "contractId": "UxIKiCtKeNybXYn5boTA", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717186157528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.25, "month": -0.25}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T17:21:31.736", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.25, "resolutionTime": 1717348876956, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.25}, {"id": "f3ygtmfe21", "prob": 0.11778859239438919, "text": "Remco Evenepoel", "index": 2, "poolNo": 105.48110198320673, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 790.0309322384645, "textFts": "'evenepoel':2 'remco':1", "contractId": "UxIKiCtKeNybXYn5boTA", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717186157528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.25, "month": -0.25}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T17:21:31.739", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.25, "resolutionTime": 1717348876956, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.25}, {"id": "moi9ynyt4z", "prob": 0.6466342228168327, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 390.5048899509926, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 213.39894961057055, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UxIKiCtKeNybXYn5boTA", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717186157528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.75, "month": 0.75}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T17:21:31.737", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.75, "resolutionTime": 1717348876956, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.75}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd961021076", "createdTime": 1717186157775}, {"name": "Critérium du Dauphiné", "slug": "criterium-du-dauphine", "groupId": "13f9c2f6-0f59-42fe-9806-aea4c2a4b514", "createdTime": 1717186157779}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1717186157780}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717186157788}, {"name": "Maillot Jaune", "slug": "maillot-jaune", "groupId": "d35ec746-d3e1-4d79-b4b2-77470ae096c3", "createdTime": 1717186157822}] | ["racing-sports", "criterium-du-dauphine", "road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default", "maillot-jaune"] | 0.25 | 1717329926051 | 1717357228302 | {"moi9ynyt4z": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq | {"NO": 1142.6119218605925, "YES": 875.1877876187699} | 0.5662662733534706 | will-openai-launch-a-significantly | 5688.505422786366 | Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena) | 1735682340000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.341705635589122 | False | basic | public | 1717187194437 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same rules as my other market: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "x0aaiwo2AMAeSBwgUfVS", "label": "/Soli/will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "+ The model must achieve an elo rating that is at least 100 points higher than the scores of OpenAI's free models on Chatbot Arena", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01292442296073082} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 166.3359108188807, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Soli | 1718724860540 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717187194581}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1717187194587}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717187194590}] | ["ai", "chatgpt", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718118244212 | 1717222964609 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA | who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp | 94768.74965692878 | Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition? | 1717911368777 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.113524298008496 | True | plus | k9qra7yxoc | public | 1717188982641 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One song per performer, using karaoke songs from youtube. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will select the performer with the most votes from those who perform in the karaoke komp.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RSVP: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://schedule.manifest.is/Manifest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://schedule.manifest.is/Manifest", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1110.4391391354202, "platformFee": 108.23152987770207, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717918362311 | 48500 | ian | 1717918873768 | 0 | 106 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "u1jf6yhfn5", "prob": 0.01906200647915713, "text": "(Removed)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 970.079720006138, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49920.665756701535, "textFts": "'remov':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717188982641, "probChanges": {"day": -0.035378104840530826, "week": -0.06536898578799791, "month": -0.4809379935208429}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.739", "probChangeDay": -0.035378104840530826, "probChangeWeek": -0.06536898578799791, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.4809379935208429}, {"id": "t4h0wp7dkq", "prob": 0.008344656059892689, "text": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "index": 1, "poolNo": 436.7846484782713, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51906.253260251106, "textFts": "'eliez':1 'yudkowski':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717189399770, "probChanges": {"day": -0.015685993493030147, "week": -0.05027885384988754, "month": -0.4916553439401073}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.741", "probChangeDay": -0.015685993493030147, "probChangeWeek": -0.05027885384988754, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4916553439401073}, {"id": "k23ipxi8l1", "prob": 0.005289716099803648, "text": "A group of 3 or more people who sing a song together", "index": 2, "poolNo": 174.45818777254553, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32806.17526796648, "textFts": "'3':4 'group':2 'peopl':7 'sing':9 'song':11 'togeth':12", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717194097560, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03690285672677153, "week": -0.07728196144606325, "month": -0.49471028390019633}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.74", "probChangeDay": -0.03690285672677153, "probChangeWeek": -0.07728196144606325, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49471028390019633}, {"id": "7ndf3j0f49", "prob": 0.0005982418765554781, "text": "mattyb", "index": 3, "poolNo": 18.394946818340458, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30729.94872356094, "textFts": "'mattyb':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717200059116, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00491380949181297, "week": -0.03276627479379703, "month": -0.4994017581234445}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.741", "probChangeDay": -0.00491380949181297, "probChangeWeek": -0.03276627479379703, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4994017581234445}, {"id": "3btfmgmfay", "prob": 0.0003953518143780396, "text": "Zvi", "index": 4, "poolNo": 11.176488740065452, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28258.55273369465, "textFts": "'zvi':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717260203519, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004860230810164785, "week": -0.0649533572229915, "month": -0.49960464818562195}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.738", "probChangeDay": -0.004860230810164785, "probChangeWeek": -0.0649533572229915, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49960464818562195}, {"id": "6y1a6nknzr", "prob": 0.00035946330413717397, "text": "Aella", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.601218726061461, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26700.270458182473, "textFts": "'aella':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717353146918, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004287502348843087, "week": -0.49964053669586284, "month": -0.49964053669586284}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.74", "probChangeDay": -0.004287502348843087, "probChangeWeek": -0.49964053669586284, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49964053669586284}, {"id": "2slo0hjsaj", "prob": 0.0002617968704184989, "text": "Scott Alexander", "index": 6, "poolNo": 6.461576956678272, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24675.181661746028, "textFts": "'alexand':2 'scott':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717353190477, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0023102391404140657, "week": -0.4997382031295815, "month": -0.4997382031295815}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.741", "probChangeDay": -0.0023102391404140657, "probChangeWeek": -0.4997382031295815, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4997382031295815}, {"id": "o6sacais1f", "prob": 0.00021438283922995302, "text": "Nate Silver", "index": 7, "poolNo": 5.285419186360372, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24648.829645924256, "textFts": "'nate':1 'silver':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717353261066, "probChanges": {"day": -0.001912369193714376, "week": -0.49978561716077, "month": -0.49978561716077}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.74", "probChangeDay": -0.001912369193714376, "probChangeWeek": -0.49978561716077, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49978561716077}, {"id": "kyeirzf8re", "prob": 0.00020590404197859687, "text": "Steve Hsu", "index": 8, "poolNo": 4.89032668892753, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23745.622980067164, "textFts": "'hsu':2 'steve':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717353362533, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0024216512632394024, "week": -0.4997940959580214, "month": -0.4997940959580214}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.739", "probChangeDay": -0.0024216512632394024, "probChangeWeek": -0.4997940959580214, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4997940959580214}, {"id": "6wjjgv3yu8", "prob": 0.00018510522451259886, "text": "Katja Grace", "index": 9, "poolNo": 4.387722041491372, "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23699.54636758076, "textFts": "'grace':2 'katja':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717431432723, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0019599776818473463, "week": -0.4998148947754874, "month": -0.4998148947754874}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.739", "probChangeDay": -0.0019599776818473463, "probChangeWeek": -0.4998148947754874, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4998148947754874}, {"id": "hika5xf0j9", "prob": 0.00024338232811994402, "text": "N.C. Young", "index": 10, "poolNo": 6.6478647913578754, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27307.84469804445, "textFts": "'n.c':1 'young':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717453999830, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08713404540174083, "week": -0.49975661767188007, "month": -0.49975661767188007}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.749", "probChangeDay": -0.08713404540174083, "probChangeWeek": -0.49975661767188007, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49975661767188007}, {"id": "biacvy3l9d", "prob": 0.02321896673873116, "text": "Molly", "index": 11, "poolNo": 130.4119945632052, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5486.202906119141, "textFts": "'molli':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717534233728, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17603693155363387, "week": -0.47678103326126886, "month": -0.47678103326126886}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17603693155363387, "probChangeWeek": -0.47678103326126886, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 670.3055065150149, "probChangeMonth": -0.47678103326126886}, {"id": "cazjns0wiy", "prob": 0.006358345355507171, "text": "Anton Makiievskyi", "index": 12, "poolNo": 82.59668480576131, "userId": "2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12907.683047990071, "textFts": "'anton':1 'makiievskyi':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717614906599, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07302485426197089, "week": -0.4510322488095934, "month": -0.4510322488095934}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.07302485426197089, "probChangeWeek": -0.4510322488095934, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 813.8199023474122, "probChangeMonth": -0.4510322488095934}, {"id": "dkop5bv3tn", "prob": 0.003169391954335309, "text": "Connor harris", "index": 13, "poolNo": 68.14112716620993, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21431.606505183863, "textFts": "'connor':1 'harri':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717798108207, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09120732413417423, "week": -0.39119827744855973, "month": -0.39119827744855973}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09120732413417423, "probChangeWeek": -0.39119827744855973, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 862.7685519768959, "probChangeMonth": -0.39119827744855973}, {"id": "o0ei7ip4so", "prob": 0.00250095468599879, "text": "Mackenzie M", "index": 14, "poolNo": 66.70119739638227, "userId": "AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26603.59305855262, "textFts": "'m':2 'mackenzi':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717798603502, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08454507215775789, "week": -0.33701544305162956, "month": -0.33701544305162956}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08454507215775789, "probChangeWeek": -0.33701544305162956, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 882.030342855832, "probChangeMonth": -0.33701544305162956}, {"id": "eemjd8xlq2", "prob": 0.01861531698408369, "text": "aenews", "index": 15, "poolNo": 234.80190158293652, "userId": "1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12378.569215529647, "textFts": "'aenew':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717822625825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11745638165549338, "week": -0.18339373923486307, "month": -0.18339373923486307}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.11745638165549338, "probChangeWeek": -0.18339373923486307, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 777.7586054157014, "probChangeMonth": -0.18339373923486307}, {"id": "a61coow5y7", "prob": 0.2950007245677642, "text": "Lydia", "index": 16, "poolNo": 1209.3294697272818, "userId": "D8O4yNtFhEU8Y7Taf3BilznJOcu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2890.0823927323586, "textFts": "'lydia':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717868103027, "probChanges": {"day": 0.1097398305477654, "week": 0.1097398305477654, "month": 0.1097398305477654}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.1097398305477654, "probChangeWeek": 0.1097398305477654, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 841.9187374969503, "probChangeMonth": 0.1097398305477654}, {"id": "g2a24dat3o", "prob": 0.009135241025112399, "text": "Joel Becker", "index": 17, "poolNo": 180.90213599987734, "userId": "KMOc8XM9hGbSYHrVJYkuVrUyctu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19621.76486562437, "textFts": "'becker':2 'joel':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717888071844, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2250716854174734, "week": -0.2250716854174734, "month": -0.2250716854174734}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2250716854174734, "probChangeWeek": -0.2250716854174734, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 988.9415445205549, "probChangeMonth": -0.2250716854174734}, {"id": "6i7nvzkbxi", "prob": 0.005361473696905819, "text": "Luis", "index": 18, "poolNo": 143.00242547355552, "userId": "1sijsmnt55W2PMN7Mb8KAbcMG1w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26529.22121260644, "textFts": "'lui':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717888474546, "probChanges": {"day": -0.19985439229843405, "week": -0.19985439229843405, "month": -0.19985439229843405}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.19985439229843405, "probChangeWeek": -0.19985439229843405, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 949.0222728971187, "probChangeMonth": -0.19985439229843405}, {"id": "yhb4lcifxn", "prob": 0.013358769490456173, "text": "Yoav & Anna", "index": 19, "poolNo": 239.38913903582753, "userId": "GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17680.610094939497, "textFts": "'anna':2 'yoav':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717892878602, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17041085428504804, "week": -0.17041085428504804, "month": -0.17041085428504804}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17041085428504804, "probChangeWeek": -0.17041085428504804, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 933.2981093248983, "probChangeMonth": -0.17041085428504804}, {"id": "8mvyhznnid", "prob": 0.019585151979048022, "text": "Tamera", "index": 20, "poolNo": 255.6272765898255, "userId": "6wDrCHlb3GYFmwGA4ciV4ZyHOKz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12796.468355003575, "textFts": "'tamera':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717904711719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.23234333130689228, "week": -0.23234333130689228, "month": -0.23234333130689228}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.23234333130689228, "probChangeWeek": -0.23234333130689228, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.23234333130689228}, {"id": "qbscyj6hy5", "prob": 0.01773070061603328, "text": "Charlie Mlcek", "index": 21, "poolNo": 261.3646420160097, "userId": "0TzzUJ6rLzZ7dufh63iWlfUdlhu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14479.431431189718, "textFts": "'charli':1 'mlcek':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717904730271, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2048075694350821, "week": -0.2048075694350821, "month": -0.2048075694350821}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2048075694350821, "probChangeWeek": -0.2048075694350821, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.2048075694350821}, {"id": "mgufr8n5rf", "prob": 0.011387602901350451, "text": "Misha Glouberman", "index": 22, "poolNo": 216.27284288998476, "userId": "KMOc8XM9hGbSYHrVJYkuVrUyctu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18775.682247530058, "textFts": "'glouberman':2 'misha':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717904754471, "probChanges": {"day": -0.19925197530528094, "week": -0.19925197530528094, "month": -0.19925197530528094}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.19925197530528094, "probChangeWeek": -0.19925197530528094, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.19925197530528094}, {"id": "0rldbp8w0n", "prob": 0.006642699987630437, "text": "Phil Hazelden", "index": 23, "poolNo": 174.0773124404908, "userId": "5phKPAhVVsQMhK0QmKVoUscKxYm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26031.729477666722, "textFts": "'hazelden':2 'phil':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717904755194, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17088785358554162, "week": -0.17088785358554162, "month": -0.17088785358554162}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17088785358554162, "probChangeWeek": -0.17088785358554162, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 965.0956713249147, "probChangeMonth": -0.17088785358554162}, {"id": "khdhk3m6ox", "prob": 0.02907691600904258, "text": "Duncan", "index": 24, "poolNo": 367.2670114778141, "userId": "ssukIwp3uDhaslpG1i0MEE26h9K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12263.612114891652, "textFts": "'duncan':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717904817260, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1611503082959324, "week": -0.1611503082959324, "month": -0.1611503082959324}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1611503082959324, "probChangeWeek": -0.1611503082959324, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.1611503082959324}, {"id": "e3oc1fy8yr", "prob": 0.009889083412014957, "text": "Eric", "index": 25, "poolNo": 215.184538948655, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21544.621702265962, "textFts": "'eric':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905014964, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17250976622269187, "week": -0.17250976622269187, "month": -0.17250976622269187}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17250976622269187, "probChangeWeek": -0.17250976622269187, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 995.7882630141378, "probChangeMonth": -0.17250976622269187}, {"id": "k9qra7yxoc", "prob": 0.07038569291947222, "text": "Tim Blais", "index": 26, "poolNo": 616.5328072399299, "userId": "1JRUwbgFh6eQP37giiKulxWcWwu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8142.815601041007, "textFts": "'blai':2 'tim':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905178606, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08523007168995245, "week": -0.08523007168995245, "month": -0.08523007168995245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08523007168995245, "probChangeWeek": -0.08523007168995245, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 944.1106650488072, "probChangeMonth": -0.08523007168995245}, {"id": "gecjcezjq0", "prob": 0.013032162021890507, "text": "Aaron Kaufman", "index": 27, "poolNo": 271.39183853347674, "userId": "reFW2XMaPKMq4S6m8hG0ead6qbS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20553.382905489187, "textFts": "'aaron':1 'kaufman':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905586453, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12132152192584766, "week": -0.12132152192584766, "month": -0.12132152192584766}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12132152192584766, "probChangeWeek": -0.12132152192584766, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 918.259068111505, "probChangeMonth": -0.12132152192584766}, {"id": "exjj6vqibc", "prob": 0.047244982973605174, "text": "James D.", "index": 28, "poolNo": 557.3903478394598, "userId": "CVYgXaXOGcbtCrRekcEJpdTjZMl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11240.483474040475, "textFts": "'d':2 'jame':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905738726, "probChanges": {"day": -0.072755075992507, "week": -0.072755075992507, "month": -0.072755075992507}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.072755075992507, "probChangeWeek": -0.072755075992507, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 913.4678126329563, "probChangeMonth": -0.072755075992507}, {"id": "ygbayfmj8d", "prob": 0.018902876259731048, "text": "Archibald Crone @BlueDragon", "index": 29, "poolNo": 364.7509652501318, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18931.305372332936, "textFts": "'archibald':1 'bluedragon':3 'crone':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905806837, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09181316694033373, "week": -0.09181316694033373, "month": -0.09181316694033373}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09181316694033373, "probChangeWeek": -0.09181316694033373, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 920.5320341609163, "probChangeMonth": -0.09181316694033373}, {"id": "gexgss7g10", "prob": 0.018005490714181227, "text": "@AndrewG", "index": 30, "poolNo": 371.9732990480396, "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20286.908202863557, "textFts": "'andrewg':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717905808903, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08543060355720056, "week": -0.08543060355720056, "month": -0.08543060355720056}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08543060355720056, "probChangeWeek": -0.08543060355720056, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 928.5101757022719, "probChangeMonth": -0.08543060355720056}, {"id": "lnaesqw0pb", "prob": 0.10955265812940154, "text": "Tom/Quinn", "index": 31, "poolNo": 1002.7327601798552, "userId": "TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8150.242414511443, "textFts": "'tom/quinn':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717906010291, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012409397596600938, "week": 0.012409397596600938, "month": 0.012409397596600938}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.012409397596600938, "probChangeWeek": 0.012409397596600938, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 934.8808327641971, "probChangeMonth": 0.012409397596600938}, {"id": "m6d3or87j8", "prob": 0.02617003594016386, "text": "Javier", "index": 32, "poolNo": 537.8043606161199, "userId": "KMOc8XM9hGbSYHrVJYkuVrUyctu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20012.582419355283, "textFts": "'javier':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717907957028, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0318581969769505, "week": -0.0318581969769505, "month": -0.0318581969769505}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0318581969769505, "probChangeWeek": -0.0318581969769505, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 813.108769227129, "probChangeMonth": -0.0318581969769505}, {"id": "6mjnl0u78j", "prob": 0.031005983993411864, "text": "Kerry M.", "index": 33, "poolNo": 626.3459990429584, "userId": "zh9gHZPMZXTxCvhJBpIbftoIiaO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19574.46424378127, "textFts": "'kerri':1 'm':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717909184938, "probChanges": {"day": -0.030643653826458245, "week": -0.030643653826458245, "month": -0.030643653826458245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.030643653826458245, "probChangeWeek": -0.030643653826458245, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 896.5481722349512, "probChangeMonth": -0.030643653826458245}, {"id": "8fd755s2gh", "prob": 0.03034097764860241, "text": "Ben goldber", "index": 34, "poolNo": 643.2162743561163, "userId": "D8O4yNtFhEU8Y7Taf3BilznJOcu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20556.373330356066, "textFts": "'ben':1 'goldber':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717909239742, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03186117228473587, "week": -0.03186117228473587, "month": -0.03186117228473587}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03186117228473587, "probChangeWeek": -0.03186117228473587, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 935.875758287636, "probChangeMonth": -0.03186117228473587}, {"id": "ehofy8m9c3", "prob": 0.039467044067173204, "text": "James R!", "index": 35, "poolNo": 818.5862349705137, "userId": "xIlmwkjNlchh1WhOh9WKt1Pf06p1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19922.4207068535, "textFts": "'jame':1 'r':2", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717909914466, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0025512173511374678, "week": -0.0025512173511374678, "month": -0.0025512173511374678}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0025512173511374678, "probChangeWeek": -0.0025512173511374678, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 845.5363120229481, "probChangeMonth": -0.0025512173511374678}, {"id": "uremmulmni", "prob": 0.04892717398159133, "text": "Vivienne- Chop Suey", "index": 36, "poolNo": 962.0243760553168, "userId": "MEKBadmoKwaafYnLPmqK4zN1Y813", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18700.34926557939, "textFts": "'chop':2 'suey':3 'vivienn':1", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717909922890, "probChanges": {"day": 0.004196186408246122, "week": 0.004196186408246122, "month": 0.004196186408246122}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.004196186408246122, "probChangeWeek": 0.004196186408246122, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 917.7070241144431, "probChangeMonth": 0.004196186408246122}, {"id": "4uyzoz22cm", "prob": 0.040760260567905084, "text": "Other", "index": 37, "poolNo": 874.3247890846145, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20576.097188174874, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA", "resolverId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "createdTime": 1717188982641, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13017941262011537, "week": -0.6349003340015709, "month": -0.4592397394320949}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:25.737", "probChangeDay": -0.13017941262011537, "probChangeWeek": -0.6349003340015709, "resolutionTime": 1717918362311, "totalLiquidity": 917.7070241144431, "probChangeMonth": -0.4592397394320949}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717189232640}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717189236280}, {"name": "🎤 Karaoke", "slug": "-karaoke", "groupId": "dd124855-734d-4f30-9135-14a9f3a0b9e4", "createdTime": 1717189240929}] | ["manifest", "manifest-2024", "-karaoke"] | 0.25 | 1717911352122 | 1717918870484 | {"k9qra7yxoc": 100} | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1EasGxrjHn4FZI6DptrN | {"NO": 1275.3672283016135, "YES": 784.0878907729847} | 0.619274106286274 | will-mal-abdallah-be-diagnosed-with | 310 | Will Mal Abdalla be diagnosed with autism by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | OZScuawt1xP36vx4473mQ1UgJSn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579542112369339 | False | basic | public | 1717192077311 | Player Piano | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.270482013174705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PlayerPiano | 1717218226910 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmUu1Xus6GZaQmy91raXd5spuL-n_C-3dY2g4bOc_GyziZog=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717191922087 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717218223799 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG | {"NO": 479.17502546621137, "YES": 2086.92011656295} | 0.18673314859530105 | will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi | 1618.9311511013607 | Will Snapchat sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.65635067482999 | False | basic | public | 1717192336706 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be for a business partnership using their data or product in another way, not just a partnered event or account.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "eQTedEJqkPFm92YesSx2", "label": "/strutheo/will-discord-sign-a-partnership-wit"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "IBezIpRUNmysXIRjHPaL", "label": "/strutheo/will-slack-sign-a-partnership-with"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07477362146255806} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.814257791251308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718668716280 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1717192336843}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717192336852}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717192336851}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717192336855}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1717192352665}] | ["business", "internet", "openai", "ai", "startups"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668713186 | 1717220215114 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CAYaSXYXrbKm1jkPskKk | should-market-creators-be-able-to-b | 0 | Should market creators be able to bet on their own markets? | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717192987347 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asking to see if we think people betting on their own markets is +/-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Someone can easily let the market expire, collect trading fees & then re-open again without resolving - market participants either have to hold and wait for the new deadline, or sell at a loss if they want to exit - all while market creator can resolve in his favour as they bet on it themselves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My take: I never bet on my own markets to avoid any kind of bias. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | vVv | 1717192987537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717192987537}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | o1gxxvnhLsPNswwDZuEO | {"NO": 9332.405679427946, "YES": 107.15350728958984} | 1 | will-destiny-make-it-home-from-isra | 11330.678546126534 | Will Destiny make it home from Israel alive? | 1718415029059 | CZdJly2L8iYvTVXDhugzuVqdLNF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.853286322858661 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717193443098 | faebie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009999999999999898} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.835883365647234, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718415029059 | 1000 | faebie | 1718415029059 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668212534185 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1717193443262}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 1717193443265}] | ["destinygg", "dalibanhq"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717941915612 | 1717451574121 | 0.99 | CZdJly2L8iYvTVXDhugzuVqdLNF3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa | will-the-close-price-of-costco-whol-01igazz88s | 10131.309698028197 | Will the close price of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) be higher than the previous day? [Closes early] | 1719252000000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717194292514 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Costco Wholesale Corporation - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cost/historical", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "COST closes at 4pm ET - This question closes 2 hours prior", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than previous day", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accounts for stock splits", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 154.14122422916705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2100 | Haws | 1719251760971 | 0 | 30 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "nzh3z3bs6j", "prob": 0.99, "text": "June 3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2424.8586635072957, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.774698105332277, "textFts": "'3':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194292514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:21:09.334", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717452428098, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "43eytpo8jv", "prob": 0.59, "text": "June 4", "index": 1, "poolNo": 698.8612936978227, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.43119409189097, "textFts": "'4':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194292514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T03:00:27.864", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717533683729, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.59}, {"id": "dph0ovn1r3", "prob": 0.58, "text": "June 5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 293.6614021229814, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 212.83014910425962, "textFts": "'5':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194292514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T03:00:27.864", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717620409692, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.58}, {"id": "srctqx959a", "prob": 0.98, "text": "June 6", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1724.3941755368066, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.2446132599256, "textFts": "'6':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194292514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T03:00:27.864", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717715049458, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "n39fck3ybb", "prob": 0.96, "text": "June 7", "index": 4, "poolNo": 471.5122300774233, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.20835762490819, "textFts": "'7':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717600285118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717815283576, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "9u8f2i8wzg", "prob": 0.95, "text": "June 10", "index": 5, "poolNo": 436.6552170537286, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.90136384370632, "textFts": "'10':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717715063135, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718051741763, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.95}, {"id": "dr28tyi22k", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 11", "index": 6, "poolNo": 99.43869440831774, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.56447401589723, "textFts": "'11':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717715068590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718137049617, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "0ut2t09vtd", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 12", "index": 7, "poolNo": 99.8185289317739, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.18180098441431, "textFts": "'12':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717715073298, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718242089392, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "62m9r8wdxh", "prob": 0.32, "text": "June 13", "index": 8, "poolNo": 69.12937649630061, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.65630252769793, "textFts": "'13':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717715081849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718332486414, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.32}, {"id": "gdp9ab5gv9", "prob": 0.93, "text": "June 14", "index": 9, "poolNo": 376.180170249222, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.583006736838193, "textFts": "'14':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717715088019, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718485119707, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.93}, {"id": "hv5xgfckse", "prob": 0.95, "text": "June 17", "index": 10, "poolNo": 446.70340184537383, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.38621859311806, "textFts": "'17':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718332498948, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.10155732642266813, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.10155732642266813, "resolutionTime": 1718683290945, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.95}, {"id": "yhls7hypbg", "prob": 0.61, "text": "June 18", "index": 11, "poolNo": 412.4407724831349, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.24590551461276, "textFts": "'18':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718332504586, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.3900000000000001, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.3900000000000001, "resolutionTime": 1718751239842, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.61}, {"id": "3eefuyj97e", "prob": 0.14, "text": "June 20", "index": 12, "poolNo": 40.66658657366136, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 245.90212364852675, "textFts": "'20':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718683300722, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1719017568365, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.14}, {"id": "sam4ifkmxx", "prob": 0.3376910569049611, "text": "June 24", "index": 13, "poolNo": 71.40513918110419, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 140.04594227646686, "textFts": "'24':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "createdTime": 1718683306857, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07238760217553747, "week": -0.07238760217553747, "month": -0.07238760217553747}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.07238760217553747, "probChangeWeek": -0.07238760217553747, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.07238760217553747}, {"id": "f577trwx0a", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 25", "index": 14, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'25':2 'june':1", "contractId": "i3NulaXI7cMmJv3ZKaNa", "createdTime": 1719017588018, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717194292743}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1717194292752}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717194292754}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1717194292805}] | ["finance", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "ai-stocks"] | 0.25 | 1719251757863 | 1717521144364 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40 | will-the-close-price-of-alphabet-in-0qppbwxmco | 11690.291661167426 | Will the close price of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) be higher than the previous day? [Closes early] | 1719017412846 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717194980567 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GOOGL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slickcharts.com/symbol/GOOGL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/googl/historical", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GOOGL closes at 4pm ET - This question closes 2 hours prior", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than previous day", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accounts for stock splits", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 182.37621896697584, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719017412846 | 2000 | Haws | 1719017412846 | 0 | 38 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "kcarph74nj", "prob": 0.99, "text": "June 3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2456.481982673043, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.44288964496684, "textFts": "'3':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194980567, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:21:17.623", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717452474618, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "x4coldsomm", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 4", "index": 1, "poolNo": 163.32781819645624, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 382.66598237921085, "textFts": "'4':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194980567, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T22:36:20.74", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717533596589, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "rz0gxeia64", "prob": 0.87, "text": "June 5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 634.9579384299291, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 98.43171683866922, "textFts": "'5':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194980567, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T22:36:20.735", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717620353636, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.87}, {"id": "a8ewstzo2s", "prob": 0.98, "text": "June 6", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1646.8755965437422, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.95065038984558, "textFts": "'6':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717194980567, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T22:36:20.723", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717714761359, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "x3y4rxy8n4", "prob": 0.95, "text": "June 7", "index": 4, "poolNo": 420.9647187287277, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.754959869793865, "textFts": "'7':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717600309853, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717815350223, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.95}, {"id": "fqvr0c1gm3", "prob": 0.94, "text": "June 10", "index": 5, "poolNo": 401.1913920408065, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.925759122426186, "textFts": "'10':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717714778574, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718051724795, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.94}, {"id": "5jckvy5xz0", "prob": 0.36, "text": "June 11", "index": 6, "poolNo": 94.59924766476071, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 105.70908592674894, "textFts": "'11':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717714786323, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718137028302, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.36}, {"id": "1s30azzfe8", "prob": 0.81, "text": "June 12", "index": 7, "poolNo": 204.69714487305842, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.852659895190214, "textFts": "'12':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717714794965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718242115918, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.81}, {"id": "ila10iws7o", "prob": 0.54, "text": "June 13", "index": 8, "poolNo": 107.54746973505547, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 92.98219683489646, "textFts": "'13':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717714805179, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718332282750, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.54}, {"id": "ywsdsj7khu", "prob": 0.94, "text": "June 14", "index": 9, "poolNo": 414.2789874366774, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.13832297378709, "textFts": "'14':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717714810347, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.055057869296236905, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.055057869296236905, "resolutionTime": 1718485102097, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.94}, {"id": "s46n20oux6", "prob": 0.92, "text": "June 17", "index": 10, "poolNo": 347.12611638089317, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.80797360987738, "textFts": "'17':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718332383171, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.44999999999999996, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.44999999999999996, "resolutionTime": 1718683212079, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.92}, {"id": "jg712mvodr", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 18", "index": 11, "poolNo": 16.35792632728868, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 611.3244307328707, "textFts": "'18':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718332388864, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1718751274730, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "pejc8n3ek0", "prob": 0.83, "text": "June 20", "index": 12, "poolNo": 220.9604702469755, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.2569637855251, "textFts": "'20':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718683261421, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.32999999999999996, "month": 0.32999999999999996}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.32999999999999996, "resolutionTime": 1719017369181, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.32999999999999996, "resolutionProbability": 0.83}, {"id": "pviyb25ctk", "prob": 0.52, "text": "June 21", "index": 13, "poolNo": 104.8347768930421, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.38819365450188, "textFts": "'21':2 'june':1", "contractId": "N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718683267909, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.023590158543515094, "month": 0.023590158543515094}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.023590158543515094, "resolutionTime": 1719017412846, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.023590158543515094, "resolutionProbability": 0.52}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717194980901}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1717194980907}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1717194980907}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1717194980904}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717194980903}] | ["finance", "ai-stocks", "tech-stocks", "google-ef2cf716540e", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 1718905559364 | 1718137011468 | 0.52 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.499999999999999 | VPnulCJ140twq6YsaY7Y | {"NO": 5815.293857902145, "YES": 171.96035564757267} | 1 | enough-people-will-come-to-ozys-aaf | 4860 | Enough people will come to Ozy's AAFTC larp that the host will consider it runnable. | 1717369163397 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.882366642166435 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717195563566 | bh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's scheduled on Sunday. I'll ask Ozy how I should resolve this. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4718271591641938} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.7061420978549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717369163397 | 1000 | hamiltonianurst | 1717422531470 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669137065045 | 0 | [{"name": "LessOnline", "slug": "lessonline", "groupId": "96d9dff6-14de-4d58-9b38-e88ecde26502", "createdTime": 1717195563776}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717422531470}] | ["lessonline", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1717369155776 | 0.97 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1 | which-of-these-books-will-i-really | 2873.817521297324 | Which of these books will I really like? | 1735707540000 | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717195675728 | mongo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've provided a link to a Google sheet with a ranking of most of the books I've read over the past few years. They are ranked approximately by, \"If my memory of this book was totally erased, how much would I enjoy reading it again?\". The dividing line between \"Books I really like\" and \"Books that are okay\" is at Algorithms to Live By, which is currently rank 35. A book only needs to be better than AtLB to resolve YES, the actual numerical ranking spot of 35 does not matter. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mBVNGCv6i35hSttUvVu9ySKrx6Q0MYWDRZwryCghEzM/edit?usp=sharing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mBVNGCv6i35hSttUvVu9ySKrx6Q0MYWDRZwryCghEzM/edit?usp=sharing", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I rank series together when the quality stays roughly the same or improves through the series, I rank them separately when I feel quality drops through a series. If you suggest a first book in a series, and I enjoy the rest of the series, it will get extra points; if I don't like the rest of the series, it will get negative points, at my subjective discretion. I both read books and listen to audiobooks; if you think a book is a signficantly better in one format I can use that format.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Major factors affecting rank include:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ease of reading, i.e simple and entertaining prose that does not trip me up or bore me. Mother of Learning, I'm Glad my Mom Died and Rock Falls, Everyone Dies did very well on this metric.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Entertaining and exciting content, i.e it makes me want to consistently turn the page to read more. HPMOR, The Last Horizon, and Different: Gender Through the Eyes of a Primatologist did very well on this metric.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Informative content, i.e it teaches me true facts about the world, especially on topics I enjoy or find useful and haven't seen elsewhere. The Elements of Computing Systems, Shake Hands with the Devil, and Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst did well on this metric. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Being a good conversation piece, both for online and/or in real life, such as classics, both traditional and online classics. A Song of Ice and Fire and Worm did very well on this metric. This metric is by far the lightest factor I evaluate on but still has some influence on rank.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reading Order", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to read the books in any order I want to, but I will generally rotate through books using this schedule:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Book from the list with the most traders", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Book from the list with the highest % ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Book from the list at random using RNG", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will commit to reading at least 50 pages of any book before resolving it \"no\". I do not need to finish a book before giving it \"yes\", in particular for non-fiction where a portion of it is really good and another portion is not useful or informative and I leave it unfinished. I read through roughly four books at the same time, one at my home PC, one at work, one on my phone, and one on Audible. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arbitary specific preferences of mine:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My favourite fiction genre is fantasy, I'm okay with sci-fi but like it much less than the average nerd", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I love evolutionary psychology done right, but evolutionary psychology done wrong is a huge turn off", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm in the Canadian military and enjoy books on the topic", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm economically libertarian, books where socialists are automatically good guys and corporations are automatically bad guys is a turn off", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I love litRPGs, but not when it's literal \"set in a video game\" or \"transported to a video game world\" litRPGs, then it's a big turn off", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add suggestions. I've taken answers from top predicted books on similar markets, although most similar markets look for fiction and I'm open to non-fiction. I will not bet because it is subjective resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.5086606647525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 8500 | mongo | 1719972499856 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | 23 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pyd9q7hoah", "prob": 0.61, "text": "Permutation City (Egan)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 645.1463954831818, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 413.3081374241801, "textFts": "'citi':2 'egan':3 'permut':1", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.6095173438495223, "month": -0.6095173438495223}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T06:21:21.265", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.6095173438495223, "resolutionTime": 1719873312817, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.6095173438495223, "resolutionProbability": 0.61}, {"id": "ie2ds8wjbn", "prob": 0.5705848770486293, "text": "A Deepness in the Sky (Vernor Vinge)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 629.0753946597672, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 473.4343632463346, "textFts": "'deep':2 'sky':5 'vernor':6 'ving':7", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T07:42:16.79", "probChangeDay": -2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": -2.220446049250313e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -2.220446049250313e-16}, {"id": "4h2mo9zimx", "prob": 0.5837964421318448, "text": "Leviathan Wakes (James S. A. Corey)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 649.7187698576193, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 463.20128749155947, "textFts": "'corey':6 'jame':3 'leviathan':1 'wake':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T07:42:16.788", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "g2xxn6en10", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Gideon the Ninth (Tamsin Muir)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 557.4024385352571, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 557.4024385352571, "textFts": "'gideon':1 'muir':5 'ninth':3 'tamsin':4", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T09:07:01.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cm4o96ua3r", "prob": 0.49405386382589506, "text": "A Wizard of Earthsea (Ursula K. Le Guin)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 537.6731074491598, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 550.6153299399995, "textFts": "'earthsea':4 'guin':8 'k':6 'le':7 'ursula':5 'wizard':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T07:42:16.789", "probChangeDay": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -1.6653345369377348e-16}, {"id": "ol3pvulgkq", "prob": 0.47977822081164884, "text": "The Player of Games (Iain M. Banks)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 524.111552360754, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 568.2922492834844, "textFts": "'bank':7 'game':4 'iain':5 'm':6 'player':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.052388489775193}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T18:42:15.298", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.052388489775193}, {"id": "jrfpmg8he3", "prob": 0.7486759392515776, "text": "Stories of Your Life and Others (Ted Chaing)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 898.8390186798318, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 301.7325124132688, "textFts": "'cha':8 'life':4 'other':6 'stori':1 'ted':7", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T11:00:27.159", "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 1.1102230246251565e-16}, {"id": "jwny3ux7v3", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City (KJ Parker)", "index": 7, "poolNo": 557.4024385352571, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 557.4024385352571, "textFts": "'citi':7 'defend':4 'kj':8 'parker':9 'sixteen':1 'wall':6 'way':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T09:07:01.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cx26298d9i", "prob": 0.5920174172482844, "text": "CORDYCEPS (Benedict_SC)", "index": 8, "poolNo": 654.3314591236542, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 450.92564997460096, "textFts": "'benedict':2 'cordycep':1 'sc':3", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5920174172482842}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T17:21:22.539", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718068282390, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5920174172482842, "resolutionProbability": 0.59}, {"id": "2e9wgsfe11", "prob": 0.396158685697638, "text": "Vampire Flower Language (Angela Castir)", "index": 9, "poolNo": 438.5093446196558, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 668.3939253350039, "textFts": "'angela':4 'castir':5 'flower':2 'languag':3 'vampir':1", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T11:00:27.158", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -1.1102230246251565e-16}, {"id": "hf67e6rj8c", "prob": 0.73, "text": "Gödel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid (Douglas Hofstadter)", "index": 10, "poolNo": 743.6134963570056, "userId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 277.52620373892734, "textFts": "'bach':3 'braid':7 'dougla':8 'escher':2 'etern':5 'golden':6 'gödel':1 'hofstadt':9", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2", "createdTime": 1717195675728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2717808383249175, "month": 0.30455698353151706}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T11:00:15.699", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2717808383249175, "resolutionTime": 1719873304675, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.30455698353151706, "resolutionProbability": 0.73}, {"id": "wpcjcfbbb0", "prob": 0.6751922389477985, "text": "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (Douglas Adams)", "index": 11, "poolNo": 454.7123469074334, "userId": "yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 218.7437751831359, "textFts": "'adam':9 'dougla':8 'galaxi':7 'guid':4 'hitchhik':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717222504661, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.12625026613424895}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T08:42:18.67", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.12625026613424895}, {"id": "wkmsm73cac", "prob": 0.5876622011774045, "text": "The Ruins of Ambrai (Melanie Rawn)", "index": 12, "poolNo": 392.27735430211084, "userId": "yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 275.2444865039978, "textFts": "'ambrai':4 'melani':5 'rawn':6 'ruin':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717222678509, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T06:21:21.263", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -1.1102230246251565e-16}, {"id": "y5apqcvgv2", "prob": 0.40379759018917216, "text": "This Used to be About Dungeons (Alexander Wales)", "index": 13, "poolNo": 269.5873248411093, "userId": "yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 398.0425258343549, "textFts": "'alexand':7 'dungeon':6 'use':2 'wale':8", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717222959753, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T08:21:12.226", "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 5.551115123125783e-17, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 5.551115123125783e-17}, {"id": "xtianpp1j9", "prob": 0.4233645504571425, "text": "Little Brother (Cory Doctorow)", "index": 14, "poolNo": 278.41804401864965, "userId": "yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 379.2138803312237, "textFts": "'brother':2 'cori':3 'doctorow':4 'littl':1", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717224508654, "probChanges": {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -0.13961455240928666}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T07:00:24.287", "probChangeDay": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.13961455240928666}, {"id": "2yx5m16qv2", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "The selfish gene (Richard Dawkins)", "index": 15, "poolNo": 381.7872711159235, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 267.8840372496605, "textFts": "'dawkin':5 'gene':3 'richard':4 'selfish':2", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717238539770, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T11:00:15.738", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "i0q3lb3o5a", "prob": 0.6585214682159815, "text": "Thrawn (trilogy by Timothy Zahn)", "index": 16, "poolNo": 430.504200991867, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 223.23940763817154, "textFts": "'thrawn':1 'timothi':4 'trilog':2 'zahn':5", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717238645034, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T18:42:15.298", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "occjqja98y", "prob": 0.705148643313696, "text": "Magic is Programming (Douglas M, Royal Road)", "index": 17, "poolNo": 479.4164147256928, "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.46352161337103, "textFts": "'dougla':4 'm':5 'magic':1 'program':3 'road':7 'royal':6", "contractId": "mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1", "createdTime": 1717261503064, "probChanges": {"day": 0.046627175097714524, "week": 0.046627175097714524, "month": 0.046627175097714524}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T17:21:22.535", "probChangeDay": 0.046627175097714524, "probChangeWeek": 0.046627175097714524, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.046627175097714524}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675469090876 | 0 | [{"name": "Reading", "slug": "reading", "groupId": "3862a56b-17da-4056-b043-78389a85a2dc", "createdTime": 1717195675990}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717195675997}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717195675996}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717195676005}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1717195676007}] | ["reading", "entertainment", "books", "culture-default", "recommendations"] | 0.25 | 1719972496647 | 1719873535468 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | iwO42BdEPLN3c9zXrKU7 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-there-be-a-negative-us-cpi-rea | 0 | Will there be a negative US CPI reading this year? | 1717196205019 | YJLqgezSImQ1nKACq8GIsUvTuuz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717195924722 | w0lph | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports at least one Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY reading below 0% until the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196205019 | 1000 | w0lph | 1717196205019 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fw0lph%2FNiy9eMQDpq.0_-n_9_-i_-s_130_-S_750021143_ts-1660079094_idx-4?alt=media&token=d8364768-d319-4efc-a0f5-3c6a3bbd70be | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714424047699 | True | 0 | [{"name": "Inflation", "slug": "inflation", "groupId": "OiDJ9KX5mar9H1asXCUa", "createdTime": 1717195924942}] | ["inflation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | YJLqgezSImQ1nKACq8GIsUvTuuz1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | glEmry00C5844z4D8rlT | {"NO": 2117.134031519456, "YES": 472.33665186625313} | 0.8175933580183743 | will-an-active-male-1-bundesliga-pl | 1415 | Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030? | 1893452340000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.588450419603728 | False | basic | public | 1717196858126 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It still seems like a long way away... but if you'd asked me in 2010 if I expected this to happen by 2020, I'd have been optimistic. Will this milestone happen in this decade?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this to resolve yes, the player must come out ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "of their own accord", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", either in a planned statement or in a spontaneous way (but not through a leak by a third party or something like that). \"Active\" player means being part of the squad of a 1. Bundesliga team, even if the player doesn't get any minutes of playing time in that season. They must have played in a Bundesliga game before though.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there's any ambiguity about the player coming out as \"homosexual / bi / queer\", I'll judge this based on the general consensus in the media. The coming-out needs to be in relation to sexual preferences (so not something like gender identity).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21072059020067235} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.053821236607117, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ADings | 1717922416594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1717196858272}, {"name": "🏳️🌈 LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1717196858264}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1717196858266}, {"name": "Society & people", "slug": "society-people", "groupId": "7fjJ2KqfKf6bmHPG7gIG", "createdTime": 1717196858278}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1717196858303}] | ["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "lgbtqia", "soccer", "society-people", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717922413470 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | {"NO": 935.1528704272355, "YES": 1069.343881223545} | 0.46652750604714255 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | 5958.004102604879 | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | 1735682340000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571725073261412 | False | basic | public | 1717197226660 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGI is achieved when ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market resolves", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=U29saQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.001474452482341626, "month": 0.02698778659553841} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 185.3106134597441, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Soli | 1720035763315 | 0 | 74 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717197226801}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1717197226805}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717197226821}] | ["ai", "agi", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720035760228 | 1717566321844 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1chFrVFwxsWuBeAGS6oC | whos-winning-ufc-302-main-event-0jhkz4n1qm | 9456.066476962475 | Whos winning UFC 302 Main Event ? | 1717311540000 | urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717201987017 | Ess Ay | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 144.01625898400601, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717312260415 | 1300 | Snga | 1717311540000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "md9gpnuk27", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Dustin Poirier", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100.89172088777619, "userId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3617.015944625942, "textFts": "'dustin':1 'poirier':2", "contractId": "1chFrVFwxsWuBeAGS6oC", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "createdTime": 1717201987017, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T07:21:06.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717312260415, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "1el4gl2gml", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Islam Mackachev", "index": 1, "poolNo": 4000.9129306539453, "userId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.25477281679375, "textFts": "'islam':1 'mackachev':2", "contractId": "1chFrVFwxsWuBeAGS6oC", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "createdTime": 1717201987017, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T07:21:06.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717312157184, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717080381102 | 0 | [{"name": "MMA", "slug": "mma", "groupId": "VAI9srd7zaNEvJ1iYLO1", "createdTime": 1717201987238}, {"name": "UFC 300", "slug": "ufc-300", "groupId": "c3e33bd9-b268-4804-90b9-b638f8f745d1", "createdTime": 1717201987239}, {"name": "UFC", "slug": "ufc", "groupId": "oQEmR7LpGHSDsM2Ua87u", "createdTime": 1717201987238}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717201987236}] | ["mma", "ufc-300", "ufc", "fighting"] | 0.25 | 1717310435869 | 0.03 | urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | cXjL3RbMAiNgT3MS645B | {"NO": 922.9582069908965, "YES": 1083.4726777719234} | 0.45999999999999996 | will-googlealphabet-make-a-formal-a | 279.8593572530967 | Will Google/Alphabet make a formal announcement that they will be buying HubSpot before August 1st. 2024? | 1735711140000 | hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57133142840129 | False | basic | public | 1717203233870 | Lee Woods | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This acquisition of Hubspot has been heavily rumored as of May 31st. 2024 but it has not been confirmed. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07418211728074342} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.349781056811496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LeeWoods | 1718922048495 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJ2D9jnq95ZstW0tW1YTMtoJ-heKtQ_G_R0RQwetoJQbot=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709837160963 | 0 | [{"name": "Hubspot", "slug": "hubspot", "groupId": "0a4a7d51-d3d9-486e-a4c2-23df3971626d", "createdTime": 1717203234016}, {"name": "Mergers and Acqusitions", "slug": "mergers-and-acqusitions", "groupId": "PFIReLFjJNpAPu7tjhPT", "createdTime": 1717203234024}, {"name": "Big Tech", "slug": "big-tech", "groupId": "1a9ef4d5-dcc6-468f-a9b7-feccdaa92733", "createdTime": 1717203234028}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1717203234029}] | ["hubspot", "mergers-and-acqusitions", "big-tech", "google-ef2cf716540e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718922048495 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-kamg4s43m4 | 6417.196382324851 | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | 1717816448532 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4mlgiifwhn | public | 1717208294755 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every Friday evening I will roll 2 dice using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " (two 1-6 random number calls). Whatever they add to will be the resolving number.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May the odds be ever in your favor.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Odds:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 2: 1+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "3:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 2/36 (2 ways to roll a 3: 1+2, 2+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "4: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "3/36 (3 ways to roll a 4: 1+3, 2+2, 3+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "5:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 5: 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "6:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll a 6: 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "7:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 6/36 (6 ways to roll a 7: 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "8:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll an 8: 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "9:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 9: 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "10:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 3/36 (3 ways to roll a 10: 4+6, 5+5, 6+4) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "11: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "2/36 (2 ways to roll an 11: 5+6, 6+5) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "12: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 12: 6+6)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: 2.78% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7: 16.67% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "12: 2.78%", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.26673293132944, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717816563004 | 2750 | Haws | 1717816603998 | 0 | 21 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hf04k8upjv", "prob": 0.03048292844657104, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 77.09981059527476, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2452.1785272918305, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0023376980917291165, "week": -0.0426365299670024, "month": -0.06107978520103975}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.375", "probChangeDay": -0.0023376980917291165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0426365299670024, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.06107978520103975}, {"id": "b7t3dwjjxb", "prob": 0.057448799414633614, "text": "3", "index": 1, "poolNo": 107.3471951229184, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1761.2244063155345, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": 0.001554792514122709, "week": -0.01581025064650858, "month": -0.03425350588054593}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.371", "probChangeDay": 0.001554792514122709, "probChangeWeek": -0.01581025064650858, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.03425350588054593}, {"id": "u1nk9eu9rc", "prob": 0.08895045144442228, "text": "4", "index": 2, "poolNo": 135.86443210167553, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1391.5525724827914, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": 0.004727287000524147, "week": 0.01677013234373352, "month": -0.0016731228903038298}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.373", "probChangeDay": 0.004727287000524147, "probChangeWeek": 0.01677013234373352, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.0016731228903038298}, {"id": "278gc4j7w8", "prob": 0.11330108925439611, "text": "5", "index": 3, "poolNo": 155.42885698381593, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1216.3925262584044, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0024349711006731584, "week": 0.041229398673296364, "month": 0.022786143439259013}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.375", "probChangeDay": -0.0024349711006731584, "probChangeWeek": 0.041229398673296364, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": 0.022786143439259013}, {"id": "4mlgiifwhn", "prob": 0.1343192645028917, "text": "6", "index": 4, "poolNo": 171.2746048343301, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1103.8559988672914, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0007769220903794949, "week": 0.00845882930069805, "month": 0.043900970538898215}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.372", "probChangeDay": -0.0007769220903794949, "probChangeWeek": 0.00845882930069805, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": 0.043900970538898215}, {"id": "gjz812f3i7", "prob": 0.17403383570069658, "text": "7", "index": 5, "poolNo": 199.5898334780962, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 947.2551617753029, "textFts": "'7':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": 0.004708429759766791, "week": 0.008148804706325563, "month": 0.08379933885067592}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.375", "probChangeDay": 0.004708429759766791, "probChangeWeek": 0.008148804706325563, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": 0.08379933885067592}, {"id": "y0z844cyqk", "prob": 0.11416806754218478, "text": "8", "index": 6, "poolNo": 156.09872556111435, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1211.1726045193068, "textFts": "'8':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.011227127492321534, "week": -0.01279629573166309, "month": 0.023657070758085083}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.372", "probChangeDay": -0.011227127492321534, "probChangeWeek": -0.01279629573166309, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": 0.023657070758085083}, {"id": "qzpp882f51", "prob": 0.11111189438500657, "text": "9", "index": 7, "poolNo": 153.73028304041753, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1229.832510945767, "textFts": "'9':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005438835822558399, "week": 0.039030251648750014, "month": 0.020586996414712663}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.372", "probChangeDay": -0.005438835822558399, "probChangeWeek": 0.039030251648750014, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": 0.020586996414712663}, {"id": "zh201pu4ga", "prob": 0.08655169516185203, "text": "10", "index": 8, "poolNo": 133.84387453702584, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1412.5599744775686, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002318138658654295, "week": 0.01436098400186371, "month": -0.00408227123217364}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.37", "probChangeDay": 0.002318138658654295, "probChangeWeek": 0.01436098400186371, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.00408227123217364}, {"id": "q6bgt43kj7", "prob": 0.05793619418508915, "text": "11", "index": 9, "poolNo": 107.82948238818256, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1753.3470050369144, "textFts": "'11':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": 0.011385292321450247, "week": -0.01532308930183407, "month": -0.03376634453587142}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.371", "probChangeDay": 0.011385292321450247, "probChangeWeek": -0.01532308930183407, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.03376634453587142}, {"id": "kns4rt70x0", "prob": 0.03169577996225614, "text": "12", "index": 10, "poolNo": 78.66789102430097, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2403.299459770663, "textFts": "'12':1", "contractId": "csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717208294755, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0024783856568563953, "week": -0.04143223502765898, "month": -0.05987549026169633}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.372", "probChangeDay": -0.0024783856568563953, "probChangeWeek": -0.04143223502765898, "resolutionTime": 1717816563004, "totalLiquidity": 434.8131782731522, "probChangeMonth": -0.05987549026169633}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717208295072}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1717208295080}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1717208295075}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717226263226}] | ["fairlyrandom", "gambling", "dice", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | 1717815817016 | 1717816602712 | {"4mlgiifwhn": 100} | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0tDt6UzpFlmylhz4PSkP | could-you-unarmed-beat-eliezer-yudk | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Eliezer Yudkowsky in a fight? | 1717887540000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717210627699 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717887541146 | gregrosent | 1717286480354 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717210628213}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1717210628255}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717210628258}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1717210628267}] | ["fighting", "manifold-surveys", "fun", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["mqfmo9lwse"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fvAjdjArflzZO5PFzZYY | could-you-unarmed-beat-michael-vsau | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Michael Vsauce in a fight? | 1718492340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717210774858 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718492341074 | gregrosent | 1717210775013 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717210774999}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717210775002}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1717210775003}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1717210775013}] | ["fighting", "fun", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["vgdqsllowc"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R57i7ZD22G0oKb41GdVs | could-you-unarmed-beat-1-million-mo | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat 1 million mosquitos in a small room in a fight? | 1717887540000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717210853265 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717887541146 | gregrosent | 1717286461301 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717210853420}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717210853417}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1717210853420}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1717210853419}] | ["fun", "fighting", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | 1717227059100 | ["5igqd3cjpu"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lgF7Ft4q5RJwX3CChpGg | could-you-unarmed-beat-kanye-west-i | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Kanye West in a fight? | 1717887540000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717210899319 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717887541145 | gregrosent | 1717286451050 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717210899480}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1717210899481}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1717210899487}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717210899489}] | ["fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["8g26vujns8"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XwIth0bUMfaIShRBd2tX | could-you-unarmed-beat-mark-zuckerb | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Mark Zuckerberg in a fight? | 1717887540000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717210949888 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717887541146 | gregrosent | 1717774841251 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1717210950024}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1717210950023}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1717210950035}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717210950044}] | ["human-limits", "fighting", "manifold-surveys", "fun"] | 0.25 | 1717774839932 | ["zvyyh1v865"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | 1491.2734459873247 | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | 4872898740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.533910478050723 | False | plus | public | 1717211045969 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the sake of the question, \"another Carrington Event\" is defined as a storm with a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dst", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_storm_time_index", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is estimating the cost to the US government to harden critical infrastructure and improve preparedness enough that a second Carrington Event would cause nothing worse than a severe economic depression, instead of societal collapse. As a rough operationalization of this: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at least 95% of the people who were alive in the US at the moment of the event need to still be alive after 6 months have passed.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume the storm hits within the next 5 years.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The costs might include things like:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "sun observation", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "broadcasting geomagnetic storm predictions", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "training AI to predict geomagnetic storms and their impacts", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "sunspot research", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "transformer design research", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and whatever else accomplishes the goal of keeping 95% of the population alive for 6 months after the event.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cost would ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " include things like the cost of political lobbying for the project to be funded in the first place.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs (see @robm's comment for issues with this). The phrase \"within the next 5 years\" should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "EmsBAf19VL7CVDhsM9A5", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "a03FM24ZZIEjlowbYeDO", "label": "/singer/10mil-spent-on-hardening-us-infrast"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.05703193417963, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | singer | 1719315156971 | 0 | 19 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "drtq06274y", "prob": 0.062012918131395534, "text": "0-40", "index": 0, "poolNo": 183.66001687234768, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2777.9812412152214, "textFts": "'-40':2 '0':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03909482375038646}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.03909482375038646}, {"id": "8v88saz5fx", "prob": 0.026810947593723322, "text": "40-80", "index": 1, "poolNo": 118.55761081828427, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4303.427490746707, "textFts": "'-80':2 '40':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021204281947532735}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.016", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.021204281947532735}, {"id": "zivpi4680d", "prob": 0.026810947593723322, "text": "80-120", "index": 2, "poolNo": 118.55761081828427, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4303.427490746707, "textFts": "'-120':2 '80':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021204281947532735}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.011", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.021204281947532735}, {"id": "avev91bsgf", "prob": 0.027413454674878848, "text": "120-160", "index": 3, "poolNo": 119.91947549364181, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4254.55564688244, "textFts": "'-160':2 '120':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0064996689351043}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.0064996689351043}, {"id": "97e0zmp5dv", "prob": 0.027304698837380147, "text": "160-200", "index": 4, "poolNo": 119.67467334648393, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4263.258610746334, "textFts": "'-200':2 '160':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006396155309048156}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.006396155309048156}, {"id": "tiywy2r3d3", "prob": 0.024792338210274337, "text": "200-240", "index": 5, "poolNo": 113.88909866005235, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4479.83246540182, "textFts": "'-240':2 '200':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004002423978225842}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.004002423978225842}, {"id": "xzd8pgsrf1", "prob": 0.024792338210274337, "text": "240-280", "index": 6, "poolNo": 113.88909866005235, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4479.83246540182, "textFts": "'-280':2 '240':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004002423978225842}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.004002423978225842}, {"id": "b5e6tdjuz8", "prob": 0.02626967805912433, "text": "280-320", "index": 7, "poolNo": 117.3221444298099, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4348.74493738812, "textFts": "'-320':2 '280':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005410586389218885}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005410586389218885}, {"id": "7vv3fql5jo", "prob": 0.02651077866747164, "text": "320-360", "index": 8, "poolNo": 117.87389449121133, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4328.389113084684, "textFts": "'-360':2 '320':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005640238949988215}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005640238949988215}, {"id": "z7qm78dwke", "prob": 0.02651077866747164, "text": "360-400", "index": 9, "poolNo": 117.87389449121133, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4328.389113084684, "textFts": "'-400':2 '360':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005640238949988215}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005640238949988215}, {"id": "udu03vymah", "prob": 0.02651077866747164, "text": "400-440", "index": 10, "poolNo": 117.87389449121133, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4328.389113084684, "textFts": "'-440':2 '400':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005640238949988215}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005640238949988215}, {"id": "dvvax9n95q", "prob": 0.02672398463414749, "text": "440-480", "index": 11, "poolNo": 118.35989206757483, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4310.616313686428, "textFts": "'-480':2 '440':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005843285042311928}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005843285042311928}, {"id": "b1b8ycmqtl", "prob": 0.02672398463414749, "text": "480-520", "index": 12, "poolNo": 118.35989206757483, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4310.616313686428, "textFts": "'-520':2 '480':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005843285042311928}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.014", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005843285042311928}, {"id": "y2ctz2myoj", "prob": 0.02672398463414749, "text": "520-560", "index": 13, "poolNo": 118.35989206757483, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4310.616313686428, "textFts": "'-560':2 '520':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005843285042311928}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005843285042311928}, {"id": "u72i30tav6", "prob": 0.02672398463414749, "text": "560-600", "index": 14, "poolNo": 118.35989206757483, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4310.616313686428, "textFts": "'-600':2 '560':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005843285042311928}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005843285042311928}, {"id": "eijv2xu86x", "prob": 0.026476082672873904, "text": "600-640", "index": 15, "poolNo": 117.79463634636522, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4331.301470573252, "textFts": "'-640':2 '600':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005607193098849848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005607193098849848}, {"id": "qcf655a5in", "prob": 0.026476082672873904, "text": "640-680", "index": 16, "poolNo": 117.79463634636522, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4331.301470573252, "textFts": "'-680':2 '640':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005607193098849848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005607193098849848}, {"id": "ia8d8b45vz", "prob": 0.026476082672873904, "text": "680-720", "index": 17, "poolNo": 117.79463634636522, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4331.301470573252, "textFts": "'-720':2 '680':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005607193098849848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005607193098849848}, {"id": "in83watc30", "prob": 0.026476082672873904, "text": "720-760", "index": 18, "poolNo": 117.79463634636522, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4331.301470573252, "textFts": "'-760':2 '720':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005607193098849848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005607193098849848}, {"id": "6hfvuxrs02", "prob": 0.026476082672873904, "text": "760-800", "index": 19, "poolNo": 117.79463634636522, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4331.301470573252, "textFts": "'-800':2 '760':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005607193098849848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005607193098849848}, {"id": "w87jdfq458", "prob": 0.026042452220692403, "text": "800-840", "index": 20, "poolNo": 116.80001231604695, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4368.185169810612, "textFts": "'-840':2 '800':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005194109611740053}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005194109611740053}, {"id": "6e23gnfmms", "prob": 0.025862366014922228, "text": "840-880", "index": 21, "poolNo": 116.38471040129048, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4383.772403380879, "textFts": "'-880':2 '840':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005022514628748146}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.015", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005022514628748146}, {"id": "h9dmtrddof", "prob": 0.025862366014922228, "text": "880-920", "index": 22, "poolNo": 116.38471040129048, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4383.772403380879, "textFts": "'-920':2 '880':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005022514628748146}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.005022514628748146}, {"id": "8otsahx23k", "prob": 0.026072884333295233, "text": "920-960", "index": 23, "poolNo": 116.87006204337195, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4365.566961394352, "textFts": "'-960':2 '920':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0052231043848554315}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": 0.0052231043848554315}, {"id": "06wyzo1n6b", "prob": 0.013629551054910875, "text": "960-1000", "index": 24, "poolNo": 83.96392140395483, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6076.4680007980405, "textFts": "'-1000':2 '960':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006699798569879997}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.006699798569879997}, {"id": "qg9jgbe3ni", "prob": 0.012804073431116314, "text": "1000-1040", "index": 25, "poolNo": 81.34752893370842, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6271.906329796793, "textFts": "'-1040':2 '1000':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007496344591155606}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007496344591155606}, {"id": "qlcvspif45", "prob": 0.012804073431116314, "text": "1040-1080", "index": 26, "poolNo": 81.34752893370842, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6271.906329796793, "textFts": "'-1080':2 '1040':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007496344591155606}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007496344591155606}, {"id": "6gl20eb3zi", "prob": 0.012804073431116314, "text": "1080-1120", "index": 27, "poolNo": 81.34752893370842, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6271.906329796793, "textFts": "'-1120':2 '1080':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007496344591155606}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007496344591155606}, {"id": "hz727mmchx", "prob": 0.012804073431116314, "text": "1120-1160", "index": 28, "poolNo": 81.34752893370842, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6271.906329796793, "textFts": "'-1160':2 '1120':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007496344591155606}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.014", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007496344591155606}, {"id": "vvc5u148zf", "prob": 0.012804073431116314, "text": "1160-1200", "index": 29, "poolNo": 81.34752893370842, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6271.906329796793, "textFts": "'-1200':2 '1160':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007496344591155606}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007496344591155606}, {"id": "beiq10zgxy", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1200-1240", "index": 30, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1240':2 '1200':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "uc6symjvnf", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1240-1280", "index": 31, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1280':2 '1240':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.868", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "yhsp9e2rxs", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1280-1320", "index": 32, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1320':2 '1280':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "gre225rps4", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1320-1360", "index": 33, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1360':2 '1320':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "72e1l4pa0m", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1360-1400", "index": 34, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1400':2 '1360':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "lv9q5d5ns3", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1400-1440", "index": 35, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1440':2 '1400':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "w94kifxoq1", "prob": 0.01272127848404463, "text": "1440-1480", "index": 36, "poolNo": 81.08069372260411, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6292.547068950597, "textFts": "'-1480':2 '1440':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007576283513622644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.007576283513622644}, {"id": "aaa2hpr4q7", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1480-1520", "index": 37, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1520':2 '1480':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "n676s33fzl", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1520-1560", "index": 38, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1560':2 '1520':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "q6roxvt3j4", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1560-1600", "index": 39, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1600':2 '1560':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "ogmayslyax", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1600-1640", "index": 40, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1640':2 '1600':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.015", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "yczbianqg1", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1640-1680", "index": 41, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1680':2 '1640':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "jmw6nfvu33", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1680-1720", "index": 42, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1720':2 '1680':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.869", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "k6xw6frc84", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1720-1760", "index": 43, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1760':2 '1720':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "59ytwnslew", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1760-1800", "index": 44, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1800':2 '1760':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.016", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "o0hs97wuii", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1800-1840", "index": 45, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1840':2 '1800':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:20.867", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "2ctcwgtghf", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1840-1880", "index": 46, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1880':2 '1840':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "zfr9gr4god", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1880-1920", "index": 47, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1920':2 '1880':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.016", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "dfayeegvng", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1920-1960", "index": 48, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-1960':2 '1920':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.001", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}, {"id": "ikhgz3dap9", "prob": 0.012649619584862668, "text": "1960-2000", "index": 49, "poolNo": 80.84907359616591, "userId": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6310.574245798752, "textFts": "'-2000':2 '1960':1", "contractId": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "createdTime": 1717211045969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00764547737552396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:57:21.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 714.2857142857142, "probChangeMonth": -0.00764547737552396}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717211046355}, {"name": "Existential Risk", "slug": "existential-risk", "groupId": "iYAqK70zopnAZFdQtjS5", "createdTime": 1717211046356}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1717211046361}] | ["technology-default", "existential-risk", "natural-disasters"] | 0.25 | 1719315152735 | 1717944306466 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5021874141411229 | euSZHUSG0JUjC4W2dwDr | {"NO": 5868.998919595645, "YES": 4263.907397591699} | 1 | game-6-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da | 1559 | 5K Subsidy (Game 6) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on June 2 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs) | 1717372800000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.359193626504979 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717212582517 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oilers lead the series ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on June 2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Oilers+vs+Stars#sie=m;/g/11vxmkyyq9;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 7pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7pm CST on June 2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.41866701639395576} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.02458189956391, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717382358943 | 5000 | KeenenW | 1717372800000 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717212582702}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1717212582703}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1717212582707}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717212582704}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1717212582711}] | ["culture-default", "hockey", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "nhl"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717364451588 | 0.58 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6wFACMZWVhZEGOdoyLzs | predominant-color-of-trumps-shirt-a | 11528.936321934869 | Predominant color of Trump's shirt at the debate on June 27 | 1719566246704 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | i95mpdku8n | public | 1717213100765 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolves to N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same market for Biden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-shi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.17528421575337, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566254749 | 1000 | Base | 1719566246704 | 0 | 23 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "i95mpdku8n", "prob": 0.9938293696198638, "text": "White", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4486.897550919775, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.858893273454747, "textFts": "'white':1", "contractId": "6wFACMZWVhZEGOdoyLzs", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717213100766, "probChanges": {"day": 0.09580705116734023, "week": 0.12585512221651074, "month": 0.6585646041896296}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T12:00:36.713", "probChangeDay": 0.09580705116734023, "probChangeWeek": 0.12585512221651074, "resolutionTime": 1719566254749, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6585646041896296}, {"id": "3gqltd0ird", "prob": 0.0029678494732817123, "text": "Blue", "index": 1, "poolNo": 19.28951730473497, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6480.203626936676, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "6wFACMZWVhZEGOdoyLzs", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717213100766, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04370733717464745, "week": -0.056892440850967445, "month": -0.32938341309469055}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T12:00:36.713", "probChangeDay": -0.04370733717464745, "probChangeWeek": -0.056892440850967445, "resolutionTime": 1719566254749, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.32938341309469055}, {"id": "cicn1irolo", "prob": 0.0032027809068544805, "text": "other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 20.04080734232093, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6237.2736719061, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6wFACMZWVhZEGOdoyLzs", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717213100766, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05209971399269275, "week": -0.06896268136554332, "month": -0.32918119109493893}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T12:00:36.735", "probChangeDay": -0.05209971399269275, "probChangeWeek": -0.06896268136554332, "resolutionTime": 1719566254749, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.32918119109493893}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717213100977}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717213100976}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717213100974}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717213100983}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717213100992}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "politics-default", "debate", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1719566241586 | 1719536677665 | {"i95mpdku8n": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | {"NO": 492.4522830535915, "YES": 2030.6535971347598} | 0.19517701849944957 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva | 5396.276664263155 | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | 1722488340000 | tqP1xJXWFBM5SFi4xmwDSCj1Ffv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.64994589609928 | False | basic | public | 1717214738966 | Eddison Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if he decides to run, or decides to not run", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12914044221188958} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 118.49555376689938, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EddisonChen | 1719461517087 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZyPZL1lDqTwPsNgYsFDsMXQlhqKhCTPUzVFc7vp0Kwg=s96-c | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699308092865 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717214739205}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719366501456 | 1719461515597 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU | predominant-color-of-trumps-tie-at | 15589.077296391035 | Predominant color of Trump's tie at the debate on June 27 | 1719566451715 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 5m20uaw727 | public | 1717215357461 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same Market for Biden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-tie", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.10237934097817, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566454950 | 1000 | Base | 1719566451715 | 0 | 49 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5m20uaw727", "prob": 0.9944087007432811, "text": "Red", "color": "#f44336", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4714.99347141654, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.51117138502545, "textFts": "'red':1", "contractId": "2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215357462, "probChanges": {"day": 0.19820318277396565, "week": 0.20922165112336877, "month": 0.6608766132539041}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:08.553", "probChangeDay": 0.19820318277396565, "probChangeWeek": 0.20922165112336877, "resolutionTime": 1719566454950, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6608766132539041}, {"id": "4e4iyc9sbl", "prob": 0.0032461699737403042, "text": "Blue", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 1, "poolNo": 20.17653932029029, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6195.314172351367, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215357462, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09269420427577131, "week": -0.0977847954780068, "month": -0.329836431818214}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:08.551", "probChangeDay": -0.09269420427577131, "probChangeWeek": -0.0977847954780068, "resolutionTime": 1719566454950, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.329836431818214}, {"id": "yombpdf7jb", "prob": 0.002345129282978626, "text": "other", "color": "#ffeb3b", "index": 2, "poolNo": 17.141476898141264, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7292.2537971949405, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215357462, "probChanges": {"day": -0.10550897849819434, "week": -0.11143685564536211, "month": -0.33104018143569014}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:08.553", "probChangeDay": -0.10550897849819434, "probChangeWeek": -0.11143685564536211, "resolutionTime": 1719566454950, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.33104018143569014}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717215357683}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717215357676}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717215357685}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717215357684}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717215357686}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "us-politics", "debate"] | 0.25 | 1719566447572 | 1719536660270 | {"5m20uaw727": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Un738LhOxh35Lr95WiyC | predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-tie | 9755.825736057996 | Predominant color of Joe Biden's tie at the debate on June 27 | 1719566431505 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | ehtfkdj5ft | public | 1717215641683 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Same market for Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/predominant-color-of-trumps-tie-at", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.05895364290873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566434738 | 1000 | Base | 1719566431505 | 0 | 14 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hdh7fxli38", "prob": 0.00561012523725864, "text": "Red", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.5560169945349, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4707.031179627722, "textFts": "'red':1", "contractId": "Un738LhOxh35Lr95WiyC", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215641683, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11268037358903445, "week": -0.07515041488726774, "month": -0.3268819020901678}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T15:42:26.436", "probChangeDay": -0.11268037358903445, "probChangeWeek": -0.07515041488726774, "resolutionTime": 1719566434738, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3268819020901678}, {"id": "ehtfkdj5ft", "prob": 0.99024660744439, "text": "Blue", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3562.450479383425, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.08820704270795, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "Un738LhOxh35Lr95WiyC", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215641683, "probChanges": {"day": 0.19477742816925592, "week": 0.1439234515794071, "month": 0.6562442370768706}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T15:42:26.436", "probChangeDay": 0.19477742816925592, "probChangeWeek": 0.1439234515794071, "resolutionTime": 1719566434738, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6562442370768706}, {"id": "khguad6t0c", "prob": 0.004143267318351444, "text": "other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 22.804893675539915, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5481.27966648113, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Un738LhOxh35Lr95WiyC", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717215641683, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08209705458022137, "week": -0.06877303669213934, "month": -0.3293623349867028}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T15:42:26.437", "probChangeDay": -0.08209705458022137, "probChangeWeek": -0.06877303669213934, "resolutionTime": 1719566434738, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3293623349867028}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717215641882}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717215641888}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717215641892}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717215641886}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717215641889}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "debate", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 1719566428984 | 1719536615252 | {"ehtfkdj5ft": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hb1VBNVLprzLL3G3lQ7y | who-did-you-vote-for-in-the-2020-pr | 0 | Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential Election? | WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717215792763 | Hillary Clinton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll to see what the political affiliations of Manifold members are. Maybe to see if there is any inherent bias.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | HillaryClinton | 1717215792939 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713377673183 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717215792933}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717215792924}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717215792938}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717215792942}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717215792939}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 1261jbTD4eumiw7X3c9z | {"NO": 787.549860864315, "YES": 1269.76087444486} | 0.38280549814268167 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-1-whe-f3oiqa7vdt | 292 | Will I encounter Issue Number 1 when I resolve this market? | 1717808460000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57921070820745 | False | basic | public | 1717218090609 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.038291788981166364} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.756458598145315, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1717776151073 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717776147952 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0gGlcOWCsVIqohtujAUn | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-vo | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Volodymyr Zelenskyy into? | 1717783978509 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717221383963 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717784040575 | strutheo | 1717783982508 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717221384098}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717221384100}, {"name": "Harry Potter", "slug": "harry-potter", "groupId": "Xh32CB0FoWKjEKVVGJQI", "createdTime": 1717221384103}, {"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1717221384099}, {"name": "Hogwarts Sorting", "slug": "hogwarts-sorting", "groupId": "c703a734-cf08-4c72-9e0a-9c97ba68c82a", "createdTime": 1717221384139}] | ["books", "polls", "harry-potter", "psychology", "hogwarts-sorting"] | 0.25 | ["8q3bh4ktro"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iLxZ2fuvy1diCwgjQ4xJ | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ge | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Gendo Ikari into? | 1718900272618 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717221545290 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718900280683 | strutheo | 1718900274872 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Hogwarts Sorting", "slug": "hogwarts-sorting", "groupId": "c703a734-cf08-4c72-9e0a-9c97ba68c82a", "createdTime": 1717221545439}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717221545440}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717221545443}, {"name": "Harry Potter", "slug": "harry-potter", "groupId": "Xh32CB0FoWKjEKVVGJQI", "createdTime": 1717221545446}, {"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1717221545438}] | ["hogwarts-sorting", "polls", "books", "harry-potter", "psychology"] | 0.25 | 1718798189792 | ["1p6znrmcbe"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EGqAvAzJn4dQTqC4W8mC | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-yo | 0 | [CANCEL, REMAKING] Which Hogwarts house do you sort Yossarian (Catch 22) into? | 1718511299033 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717221644500 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718511300998 | strutheo | 1718511300185 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1717221644635}, {"name": "Hogwarts Sorting", "slug": "hogwarts-sorting", "groupId": "c703a734-cf08-4c72-9e0a-9c97ba68c82a", "createdTime": 1717221644637}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717221644639}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717221644642}, {"name": "Harry Potter", "slug": "harry-potter", "groupId": "Xh32CB0FoWKjEKVVGJQI", "createdTime": 1717221644675}] | ["psychology", "hogwarts-sorting", "polls", "books", "harry-potter"] | 0.25 | 1718511283716 | ["y4gc10hdhw"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ch | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Chat GPT into? | 1717306850923 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717222833390 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717306860606 | strutheo | 1717306852444 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717222833525}, {"name": "Harry Potter", "slug": "harry-potter", "groupId": "Xh32CB0FoWKjEKVVGJQI", "createdTime": 1717222833526}, {"name": "Hogwarts Sorting", "slug": "hogwarts-sorting", "groupId": "c703a734-cf08-4c72-9e0a-9c97ba68c82a", "createdTime": 1717222833527}, {"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1717222833528}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717222833531}] | ["books", "harry-potter", "hogwarts-sorting", "psychology", "polls"] | 0.25 | 1717262044321 | ["br8aamgqd9"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | MZ4tddYTikqRz51gzxlK | {"NO": 1535.427892576794, "YES": 651.2842477557033} | 0.7021627878022058 | will-i-have-api-access-to-gpt4o-ima-f5wvq6237n | 550 | Will I have API access to gpt-4o image gen by August 1 2024 | 1725173940000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599112038307126 | False | basic | public | 1717223050893 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm in tier five for openAI API usage. I don't have it now according to my tests, either in the API or the website.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07358808728916422} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.572107423206168, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1718246132674 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717223051029}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1717223051037}, {"name": "GPT-4o", "slug": "gpt4o", "groupId": "9c3a6cba-7016-4fe5-b895-b83529f50e78", "createdTime": 1717223051035}] | ["openai", "gpt4-speculation", "gpt4o"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718246129349 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | p3TJSmcHOFMMakD7HyPS | {"NO": 644.2187247096181, "YES": 1552.2678271277382} | 0.29329509173217116 | will-the-idf-relinquish-control-of | 665 | Will the IDF relinquish control of the Philadelphi corridor before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | yWKyDbMkNfSHZAIbK26aR58Nxji2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.564108376499519 | False | basic | public | 1717224209196 | Epistemic Hygiene | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if Israeli troops end their presence along the Egypt-Gaza in full and cede control to any non-IDF entity (de facto or formally).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.16406807865368844} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.26634048685984, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Epistemic_Hygiene | 1719137221933 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691529873345 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717224209344}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1717224209354}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1717224209356}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717224209357}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717224209358}] | ["wars", "arabisraeli-conflict", "middle-east", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719137217617 | 1717235646822 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8P8ClPth83h5a6xE7rHh | {"NO": 840.8288006942596, "YES": 1189.302744119037} | 0.3 | how-often-will-i-study-chess-this-m | 4815.095527818095 | How often will I study chess this month? June 2024 Edition | 1719903540000 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57500556148319 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717225672985 | mr_mino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the % of dates on which I study chess for at least 150 minutes this month, rounded to the nearest integer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chess study includes tactics, opening preparation and game study, but not online games. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My record of doing so before this month is below:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "January, 90 min/day: 13/14 (92%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February, 90 min/day: 22/29 (75%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "March, 90 mins/day: 28/31 (90%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "April, 120 mins/day: 30/30 (100%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 150 mins/day: 30/31 (97%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Days missed so far, as of June 27:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 8", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 9", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 12", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 13", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 14-27", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/mr_mino/what-will-my-highest-chesscom-ratin", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.13453714433816066, "month": -0.6029401443401259} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.54835659054702, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719938517239 | 1000 | mr_mino | 1719903540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhpVDFQAVKbt-9Od9WSi01Lp_CQJnMybA5BxSxLa6a=s96-c | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700547753036 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1717225673117}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717225673116}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1717225673121}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717267943261}] | ["chess", "personal-goals", "board-games", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719852028835 | 1719560346150 | 0.3 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ySQPq7vd9T88EOTpZFE3 | {"NO": 9949.874371066197, "YES": 100.5037815259202} | 1 | will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-dou | 10584.947812147695 | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the double at the European Athletics Championships? | 1718224372262 | 0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84972144192309 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717225929592 | Sindre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if Jakob Ingebrigtsen wins gold medals in both the 1500m and 5000m competitions at the Rome 2024 European Athletics Championships.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if he fails to win either. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5117296971669951} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 79.38158206362446, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718224372262 | 1000 | Sindre | 1718224621923 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI7S8dzmYSGKjH1PuSnjsb_GGjLpRI4xSBiy5Nm67glFoQ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697226133927 | 0 | [{"name": "Running", "slug": "running", "groupId": "PaaoqRhsQCCuJW5JjRsl", "createdTime": 1717225929728}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717225929731}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1717225929736}] | ["running", "sports-default", "athletics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718224353895 | 1718224619933 | 0.99 | 0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WMVyDihKAYFnVJsqOaD1 | who-will-win-unbound-gravel-2024-wo | 5650 | Who will win Unbound Gravel 2024 (Women Elite)? | 1717294282944 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 79at7jgntm | public | 1717225960610 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The women have their own race during the mens 200 mile edition, but they won't start in the same pack.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the winner.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If the race does not happen, resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.93153354515235, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717294282944 | 1000 | Eliza | 1717294282944 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "tz8zuktpbo", "prob": 0.00776826739657313, "text": "Sofia Gomez Villafane", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.283154070445107, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3995.7607765034772, "textFts": "'gomez':2 'sofia':1 'villafan':3", "contractId": "WMVyDihKAYFnVJsqOaD1", "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "createdTime": 1717225960610, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3333333333333333, "month": -0.3333333333333333}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:21:27.125", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3333333333333333, "resolutionTime": 1717294282944, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3333333333333333}, {"id": "odbvq58hvp", "prob": 0.010484690917060108, "text": "Haley Smith", "index": 1, "poolNo": 36.39331058374228, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3434.6971461244375, "textFts": "'haley':1 'smith':2", "contractId": "WMVyDihKAYFnVJsqOaD1", "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "createdTime": 1717225960610, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3333333333333333, "month": -0.3333333333333333}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:21:27.126", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3333333333333333, "resolutionTime": 1717294282944, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3333333333333333}, {"id": "79at7jgntm", "prob": 0.9817470416863667, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2592.9143793676294, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.20830220799098, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WMVyDihKAYFnVJsqOaD1", "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "createdTime": 1717225960610, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.6666666666666667, "month": 0.6666666666666667}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:21:27.125", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.6666666666666667, "resolutionTime": 1717294282944, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6666666666666667}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717225960889}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1717225960893}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXzAzPN8OcW", "createdTime": 1717225960893}] | ["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "peloton-discord"] | 0.25 | 1717294276599 | {"79at7jgntm": 100} | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | QJ3VeuMlDnnbJse88slk | {"NO": 1344.9589189228807, "YES": 743.5171334458727} | 0.17 | how-often-will-i-row-this-month-jun | 358 | How often will I row this month? June 2024 Edition | 1719903540000 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.584021801339496 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717226454245 | mr_mino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the % of days on which I row for 30 mins, rounded to the nearest integer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My history of doing so before this month is below:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February: 25/29 days (86%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For those who are curious, I will record the distance rowed below. N/A means that I did not row for 30 mins on that date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 1: 5518 m", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 2: 5665 m", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 3: 5785 m ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 4: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 5: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 6: 5328 m", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 7: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 8: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 9: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 10: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 11: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 12: N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 13: N/A", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.473990587010766, "month": -0.4745808431323877} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.35115149236116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719938561348 | 1000 | mr_mino | 1719903540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhpVDFQAVKbt-9Od9WSi01Lp_CQJnMybA5BxSxLa6a=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700547753036 | 0 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1717226454501}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717226454503}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717267948570}] | ["health", "personal-goals", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1718638352658 | 0.17 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | y7Phb3fpaxj92XQN8jnK | {"NO": 406.2137589491746, "YES": 2461.7580718754543} | 0.14163798771774405 | will-a-new-dimension-be-added-to-mi | 3029.837736694621 | Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23? | 1790888340000 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.295980338411105 | False | basic | public | 1717227998748 | CyfralCoot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.028754969280172266} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.66792822737777, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CyfralCoot | 1719354933213 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | 23 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709980441447 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717227998876}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717227998874}, {"name": "Minecraft", "slug": "minecraft", "groupId": "9IAVIiHYWuwH9S47UErq", "createdTime": 1717227998878}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1717227998880}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717227998898}] | ["gaming", "internet", "minecraft", "video-games", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719354930143 | 1717318096415 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cLGnJaVgUcrMUHBxssxb | what-event-will-happen-first-spacex-bugf87ln1t | 0 | What Event Will Happen First: SpaceX 105 Launches In 2024 OR Jimmy Carter Becomes A Centenarian | 1717229203137 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717228487532 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What Event Will Happen First: SpaceX 105 Launches In 2024 OR Jimmy Carter Becomes A Centenarian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market only resolves to 1 answer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SpaceX 105 Launches In 2024 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per Data Provided By ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/agency/past/1/?search=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Must show Green=Successful Launch)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Totals So Far:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "January: 10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February: 9", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "March: 13", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "April: 12", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May: 14", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TOTAL: 58", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Pace=104.4 At End Of September 30th 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy Carter Becomes A Centenarian ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He is alive and 5 news sources and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wiki ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carter", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "shows 100 years old on October 1st, 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sources: CNN, New York Times, Forbes, CNBC, Fox News, Business Insider, BBC News", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVES NEITHER IF NOTHING HAPPENS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717229203137 | 1000 | SirCryptomind | 1720053161621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "stsv3i5hcp", "prob": 0.5, "text": "SpaceX 105 Launches In 2024", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'105':2 '2024':5 'launch':3 'spacex':1", "contractId": "cLGnJaVgUcrMUHBxssxb", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1717228487532, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T08:06:43.273", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717229203137, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5qmkkiu0jg", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Jimmy Carter Becomes A Centenarian", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'becom':3 'carter':2 'centenarian':5 'jimmi':1", "contractId": "cLGnJaVgUcrMUHBxssxb", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1717228487532, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T08:06:43.345", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717229203137, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | True | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717228487896}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1717228487940}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717228487939}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717228487940}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "jimmy-carter", "spacex", "space"] | 0.25 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | V0jpgzeOTnZsfUEZ9LEO | {"NO": 1048.5396463018378, "YES": 953.707381048456} | 0.5236814598693348 | set-and-get-my-burpee-goal-at-least-y20s32uwo6 | 250 | Set and get my burpee goal at least 3 weeks this month? | 1719806400000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570682139970877 | False | basic | public | 1717228825910 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0482964034786903} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.415216904947707, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719157550413 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719157547342 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47456569767287843 | D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU | {"NO": 7928.765730321549, "YES": 12867.308421977092} | 0.35754912623747553 | will-there-be-a-us-recession-by-eoy | 14384.504181264116 | Will there be a US recession by EOY2025? | 1767254340000 | PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6894172967858867 | False | plus | public | 1717230808252 | turtlepurple | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.029505120498845627, "month": 0.02680596632326815} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 328.6366762913914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | turtlepurple | 1719716323743 | 0 | 93 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699993765566 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717230808465}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1717230808466}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717230808470}] | ["economics-default", "business", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719716320476 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5022019414163814 | 7Orhx2XvhZQFwW6FoELR | {"NO": 602.4863152482887, "YES": 1820.3224021538804} | 0 | will-saratoga-race-course-break-a-r | 2051.1587905999813 | Will Saratoga Race Course break a record for attendance on Saturday, June 8, 2024? | 1717877906484 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.443490241559521 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717236331866 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Saratoga is hosting the Belmont Stakes for the first time in 156 years.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5823762010423038} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.926931928259705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717877906484 | 1050 | Bruce54df | 1717877906484 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1717236332010}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717236332051}] | ["horse-racing", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717875401094 | 1717877890652 | 0.25 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827 | will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f | 4472.689289920094 | Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement? | 1767239940000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717236872992 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predicts the year when Brazil will officially lower the minimum retirement age for workers. Currently, the retirement age is set at 62 for women and 65 for men. Possible changes in retirement policies could be influenced by economic, social, and political factors, including the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market. As AI and automation continue to evolve, they may significantly alter employment patterns and productivity, potentially leading to policy adjustments in retirement age.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.98106631240106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | FranklinBaldo | 1719652075619 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 8 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "gaijalas2o", "prob": 0.031338913977676415, "text": "Before 2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.96722146347072, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1389.9013095743992, "textFts": "'2026':2", "contractId": "Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827", "createdTime": 1717236872992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4686610860223236}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4686610860223236}, {"id": "5zv02bbw0s", "prob": 0.041387308262133285, "text": "Before 2028", "index": 1, "poolNo": 51.945988166604195, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1203.1727993997624, "textFts": "'2028':2", "contractId": "Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827", "createdTime": 1717236872992, "probChanges": {"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -0.45861269173786673}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.371", "probChangeDay": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "probChangeWeek": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.45861269173786673}, {"id": "prm3wm8gnz", "prob": 0.11942023309615143, "text": "Before 2030", "index": 2, "poolNo": 92.06501213124147, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 678.868101498801, "textFts": "'2030':2", "contractId": "Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827", "createdTime": 1717236872992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.13534488007565665, "month": -0.20110048747516557}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T13:42:18.459", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.13534488007565665, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.20110048747516557}, {"id": "j4peimmba1", "prob": 0.21715037695932468, "text": "Before 2035", "index": 3, "poolNo": 131.66826991177211, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 474.67776436858946, "textFts": "'2035':2", "contractId": "Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827", "createdTime": 1717236872992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T13:42:18.456", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740475}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1717236873217}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1717244163808}] | ["brazil-3292d24d179f", "ai-impacts"] | 0.25 | 1719652072425 | 1717267770758 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | zOtMfD0xXmxYWoh5vdU2 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.1 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-2-whe-s5mwyl3afg | 0 | Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market? | 1719817260000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.153241214352724 | False | basic | public | 1717239676537 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero. Additional info: This market is reliability check for the bedtime accountability chatbot I'm working on (emile.chat). At the time of resolution, I will check whether or not a random Emile user received their daily check-ins from Emile as expected in the last seven days. If everything is as expected, this resolves NO. If they did not receive a check-in as expected, this resolves YES. I believe I solved the root cause of the bug that motivated me to maintain this reliability metric, but I still think it's worth keeping these markets around.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1717239676537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5212335072763685 | EgC9XO7xi4LZ860meVVR | {"NO": 10048.347768930424, "YES": 9953.881936545022} | 1 | will-oron-admit-orz | 50 | Will Oron admit orz? | 1717304960204 | YwmVK24f0vaJ8lYSBFGWqQbIWFg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7314298668197603 | True | plus | YES | public | 1717240125406 | Benjamin Jump | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717304960204 | 10000 | BenjaminJump | 1717304960204 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQ4MSFecg0qRLtp_WBi_X8whHnNZygaYHSQL7HfbcC=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702774698851 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717240137054 | 0.52 | YwmVK24f0vaJ8lYSBFGWqQbIWFg1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9 | how-soon-will-rob-miles-post-his-ne | 27685.19824951836 | How soon will Rob Miles post his next video after "AI Ruined My Year"? | 1780347540000 | saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717243453149 | MayMeta | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Putting it in ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "wBhvAXN7WkNH1USHqU8EL8BTnF72", "label": "Writer"}}, {"text": " words:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fv5BnTiuSw0.png?alt=media&token=a7674dfb-05d6-42d9-a4bb-249b0f06d418", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How back", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " are we? ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Go check out the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI Ruined My Year", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ziuPUeewK0", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " vid btw, its really good. And consider contributing to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI Safety Research", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKPtCoDesfawNfyJg/how-to-become-an-ai-safety-researcher", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". And feel free to share relevant materials and links in the comments.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Caveat 1: Only public videos on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@RobertMilesAI/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@RobertMilesAI/videos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " would count towards resolution of this market;", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Caveat 2: Rob Miles is allowed to manipulate this market however he pleases, or to post the next vid strategically;", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Caveat 3: Exact cutoff dates are the following:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2024-06-01 6:17:00 UTC = 0 days", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-06-08 6:17:00 UTC = 7 days", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-06-15 6:17:00 UTC = 14 days", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-07-01 6:17:00 UTC = 30 days = 1 month", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-08-01 6:17:00 UTC = 2 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-09-01 6:17:00 UTC = 3 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-10-01 6:17:00 UTC = 4 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-11-01 6:17:00 UTC = 5 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-12-01 6:17:00 UTC = 6 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2025-02-01 6:17:00 UTC = 8 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2025-04-01 6:17:00 UTC = 10 months", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2025-06-01 6:17:00 UTC = 12 months = 1 year", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2026-06-01 6:17:00 UTC = 2 years", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.48190140600335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 8.725801926729833 | 3250 | MayMeta | 1720212273682 | 0 | 15 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7csbpvgup0", "prob": 0.009771775460518618, "text": "[0; 7) days", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.599561644400026, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4722.192131603006, "textFts": "'0':1 '7':2 'day':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 1.3309818945872465e-06, "week": 0.0002034170310237747, "month": -0.011677392644645061}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.291", "probChangeDay": 1.3309818945872465e-06, "probChangeWeek": 0.0002034170310237747, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -0.011677392644645061}, {"id": "88ne7by6dh", "prob": 0.009697150958103478, "text": "[7; 14) days", "index": 1, "poolNo": 46.41953720146818, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4740.505756838369, "textFts": "'14':2 '7':1 'day':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00039654071847809724, "week": -0.0001844452480070525, "month": -0.028531724770952428}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.292", "probChangeDay": -0.00039654071847809724, "probChangeWeek": -0.0001844452480070525, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -0.028531724770952428}, {"id": "phhbusl5au", "prob": 0.012160201985442912, "text": "[14; 30) days", "index": 2, "poolNo": 52.04630197421071, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4228.006121210519, "textFts": "'14':1 '30':2 'day':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 1.8398016693767227e-06, "week": -0.056105493380641136, "month": -0.11513563872856727}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.29", "probChangeDay": 1.8398016693767227e-06, "probChangeWeek": -0.056105493380641136, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -0.11513563872856727}, {"id": "uj6szepup4", "prob": 0.20313376192325389, "text": "[1; 2) months", "index": 3, "poolNo": 236.84328964242567, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 929.1041501135888, "textFts": "'1':1 '2':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 9.593205988350784e-05, "week": 0.01162003258064287, "month": 0.020262190371616334}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.286", "probChangeDay": 9.593205988350784e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.01162003258064287, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.020262190371616334}, {"id": "x4fkpve8e6", "prob": 0.21503533820924103, "text": "[2; 3) months", "index": 4, "poolNo": 245.52324058584944, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 896.2576528733549, "textFts": "'2':1 '3':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 9.615278868177479e-05, "week": 0.014364278525512031, "month": 0.04217177494510929}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.294", "probChangeDay": 9.615278868177479e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.014364278525512031, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.04217177494510929}, {"id": "j0nsj3573w", "prob": 0.18981328118133664, "text": "[3; 4) months", "index": 5, "poolNo": 227.05626040310764, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 969.1522398134354, "textFts": "'3':1 '4':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 8.357045871720814e-05, "week": 0.012468906629059973, "month": 0.03827953627391603}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.288", "probChangeDay": 8.357045871720814e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.012468906629059973, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.03827953627391603}, {"id": "ur7ue6o2i3", "prob": 0.12602743048624515, "text": "[4; 5) months", "index": 6, "poolNo": 178.1338203499334, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1235.3189467393331, "textFts": "'4':1 '5':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 5.064199859992902e-05, "week": 0.0075530731654590705, "month": 0.022738742174625903}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.292", "probChangeDay": 5.064199859992902e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.0075530731654590705, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.022738742174625903}, {"id": "23q9czzrrp", "prob": 0.08401844739112894, "text": "[5; 6) months", "index": 7, "poolNo": 142.07141453445394, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1548.8835952989518, "textFts": "'5':1 '6':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 2.9609245056239075e-05, "week": 0.00442910816013703, "month": 0.01754588131169499}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.294", "probChangeDay": 2.9609245056239075e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.00442910816013703, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.01754588131169499}, {"id": "83spwxrhs4", "prob": 0.05967872913589621, "text": "[6; 8) months", "index": 8, "poolNo": 118.1773902922064, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1862.0489316038438, "textFts": "'6':1 '8':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 1.8461642986737636e-05, "week": 0.0027714820563944087, "month": 0.012962069494363515}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.293", "probChangeDay": 1.8461642986737636e-05, "probChangeWeek": 0.0027714820563944087, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.012962069494363515}, {"id": "y6loyk9gdr", "prob": 0.03524934986000892, "text": "[8; 10) months", "index": 9, "poolNo": 89.66661147507646, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2454.113964086829, "textFts": "'10':2 '8':1 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 8.729019344823341e-06, "week": 0.0013182095189187629, "month": 0.007146668438326453}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.294", "probChangeDay": 8.729019344823341e-06, "probChangeWeek": 0.0013182095189187629, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": 0.007146668438326453}, {"id": "q5j95p5d3y", "prob": 0.02023815259581693, "text": "[10; 12) months", "index": 10, "poolNo": 67.41987042534797, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3263.905462069829, "textFts": "'10':1 '12':2 'month':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 3.895094413432221e-06, "week": 0.0005916276986964696, "month": -0.00463509916051609}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.289", "probChangeDay": 3.895094413432221e-06, "probChangeWeek": 0.0005916276986964696, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -0.00463509916051609}, {"id": "wp20gnzeoj", "prob": 0.019935961308990533, "text": "[1; 2) years", "index": 11, "poolNo": 66.90431158237853, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3289.056835483384, "textFts": "'1':1 '2':2 'year':3", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 3.8101535494647343e-06, "week": 0.000578809771456721, "month": -3.9222426979255987e-05}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.29", "probChangeDay": 3.8101535494647343e-06, "probChangeWeek": 0.000578809771456721, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -3.9222426979255987e-05}, {"id": "sx2hol4fqm", "prob": 0.015240419504016738, "text": "more than 2 years or never", "index": 12, "poolNo": 58.357421658338495, "userId": "saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3770.7643189182854, "textFts": "'2':3 'never':6 'year':4", "contractId": "6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9", "createdTime": 1717243453149, "probChanges": {"day": 2.5674736810702564e-06, "week": 0.00039099349134711324, "month": -0.0010877852779922533}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:22.292", "probChangeDay": 2.5674736810702564e-06, "probChangeWeek": 0.00039099349134711324, "totalLiquidity": 469.0970937165709, "probChangeMonth": -0.0010877852779922533}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682427871465 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717243453424}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1717243453435}] | ["ai-safety", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 1720212270304 | 1718958939432 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | nCNQbc7lYhCUaHjbA4vF | {"NO": 654.653670707977, "YES": 1527.5252316519473} | 0.30000000000000004 | will-there-be-a-military-operation | 1367.3317859657693 | Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035? | 2082841140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.451511280469212 | False | basic | public | 1717244885928 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Military Operation:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " There must be an official, organized military operation explicitly aimed at slowing down the development of artificial intelligence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Confirmation of Intent:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The intent to slow down AI development must be explicitly stated by the military or governmental authorities responsible for the operation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - This intent can be confirmed through official statements, government documents, or credible news reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nature of the Operation:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The operation must involve direct military actions, such as strikes, sabotage, or cyber-attacks targeting AI research facilities, data centers, or key infrastructure related to AI development.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Operations solely involving espionage, intelligence gathering, or non-military sanctions do not qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01722818018326544} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.454763370797803, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1717837482901 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717244886087}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717244886086}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717244886092}] | ["wars", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717837479707 | 1717319806674 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49732646324035357 | 0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761 | {"NO": 6046.019223409987, "YES": 16627.88584370394} | 0.26456497352635555 | will-any-of-the-other-donald-trump | 14058.830797891163 | Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election? | 1730851140000 | VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7835896299970377 | False | plus | public | 1717245982989 | Pjfkh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves YES whenever jury selection starts in any of the mentioned cases (State - Georgia Fulton County, Federal Classified Docs Case or Federal January 6th Case reach trial), and if it still hasn't resolved on November 5 it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0011459866361766546, "week": -0.015414986518348495, "month": -0.1701209095315474} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 385.1979204582497, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 10000 | Pjfkh | 1720174982803 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c | 45 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709641163102 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717245983165}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717245983169}] | ["us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720174979642 | 1717450259912 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ejf6DqIv6o0w6qQh3lWX | {"NO": 1465.5233486149796, "YES": 682.3500976255814} | 0.6823136396513939 | will-the-tontine-surviving-player-c-blcryd8y21 | 510 | Will the Tontine surviving player count be 200 or less as of 2024-10-31? | 1730434200000 | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.593159461339742 | False | basic | public | 1717246679659 | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://tontine.cash/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tontine.cash/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-6-1, 252 players remain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves YES if the living count is 200 or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2024-10-31, and NO if the living count is 201 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 200 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "2efbabe5-5bb0-4d8d-8213-e6799b3cf7ad", "url": "https://tontine.cash/", "image": "https://tontine.cash/social/sharecard-facebook.png", "title": "Tontine", "inputKey": "create marketWill the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2025-1-1?AUoMJogcVIv6ceH4D8WGe9ee777f-6ef0-4bc0-8cc6-e3252baf893b", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Tontine: everybody buys in, and the last person alive takes the pot. Log in every day to confirm you’re still alive.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0060737361030474} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.149407304684322, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorxus | 1717941078173 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678631188381 | 0 | [{"name": "Tontine Prophecy (Very Unsettled)", "slug": "tontine-prophecy-very-unsettled", "groupId": "e9ee777f-6ef0-4bc0-8cc6-e3252baf893b", "createdTime": 1717246679797}, {"name": "Tontine Prophecy", "slug": "tontine-prophecy", "groupId": "AUoMJogcVIv6ceH4D8WG", "createdTime": 1717246679815}] | ["tontine-prophecy-very-unsettled", "tontine-prophecy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717941075057 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999993 | lRIYMve25aGIZTmtMTMb | {"NO": 4532.307272737788, "YES": 220.6381738535443} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5jsx8uviua | 4299.03492003449 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 7 than it closed on May 31? | 1717790520151 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.89989247089241 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717248098912 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.31213124271463466} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.51789407638701, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717790520151 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717790520151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717248099096}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717248099098}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717248099120}] | ["stocks", "economics-default", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717790216234 | 0.95 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix | {"NO": 335.2638064439658, "YES": 2982.7257842314557} | 0.10104426107488729 | will-china-blockade-taiwan-between | 2345.639473658935 | Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration? | 1737435540000 | UDtma0GdHvankZVH0RBQJI0HPcH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.765198758786479 | False | basic | public | 1717248616842 | James Dillard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to yes if the blockade begins after 10/31/2024 and before 1/21/2025. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004621920403091437} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.75004449654451, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jdilla | 1717888106176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640809152248 | 0 | [{"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1717248616988}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "groupId": "2b786f84-e655-456c-b6f9-4022ee9873a3", "createdTime": 1717248616991}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1717248616994}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717248616993}] | ["taiwan", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "china", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717888103063 | 1717283456790 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | oyoKbnPVdKGZqCJJD1wO | {"NO": 1032.3062969550485, "YES": 968.7047371014392} | 0.5158923561067715 | will-the-mike-tyson-vs-jake-paul-bo-cmzic7avgf | 746.5 | Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match be rearranged and go ahead in 2024? | 1734307140000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570601344186898 | False | basic | public | 1717249581667 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson was due to take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, the fight on that date has been cancelled due to Tyson's medical issues:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/c2xx1vdvjpro", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/c2xx1vdvjpro", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both \"fighters\" claim that this is just a temporary postponement and that the fight will be rearranged. Netflix says that the fight will go ahead in 2024. Will it?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is rearranged for 2024 and the fight goes ahead with both fighters present, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight does not take place in 2024, this will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a date is set, I will wait to see if the fight actually goes ahead before resolving.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07878161896445246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.319472573566834, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719068271565 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1717249581828}, {"name": "Celebrity Boxing", "slug": "celebrity-boxing", "groupId": "5iIqTlGiDs4Zu12aGKfX", "createdTime": 1717249581867}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717249581866}, {"name": "Boxing", "slug": "boxing", "groupId": "dpQASTRFeNgZxil5uspz", "createdTime": 1717249581865}] | ["youtube", "celebrity-boxing", "sports-default", "boxing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719068268414 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gofiZqdHfRy3mz4rt20U | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-there-be-a-second-edition-of-t | 50 | Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication | 1795042740000 | BMuuEZoTuDVeGWWv3Bfr434kobF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.554790845707736 | False | basic | public | 1717250757055 | CalibratedNeutral | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves YES if a second edition of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Deep Learning Book\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.deeplearningbook.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " was published by the end of November 17, 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not trade on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CalibratedNeutral | 1717309525416 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680548461105 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717250757217}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717250757224}] | ["ai", "books"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717309522330 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4052472559595373 | i57b1Cjvm2Z0qvgqx9Fz | {"NO": 1305.3971909928962, "YES": 5319.459927587084} | 0.14325515546610587 | will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-ag | 5504.948801337809 | Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? | 1798736340000 | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.879938668284129 | False | basic | public | 1717251256355 | Timothy Bandors | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. Terrorist Operation: There must be an organized terrorist operation explicitly aimed at OpenAI. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. Confirmation of Intent:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The intent to target OpenAI must be explicitly stated by the terrorists responsible for the attack.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - This intent can be confirmed through official statements, government documents, or credible news reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. Nature of the Operation:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The operation must involve direct terrorist actions, such as strikes, sabotage, or cyber-attacks targeting OpenAI research facilities, data centers, or key infrastructure related to AI development. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Operations solely involving espionage, intelligence gathering, or sanctions do not qualify. There must be at least one OpenAI employee death to qualify. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0020198012093896878} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 96.97653224487699, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2500 | TimothyBandors | 1718148003722 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | 44 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690819422060 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717251256510}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1717251256516}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1717251256523}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717251256513}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717251256520}] | ["technology-default", "death-markets", "terrorism", "ai", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718148000557 | 1717851029618 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0e0GLiuSseaIy137jpe5 | {"NO": 1002.154340804151, "YES": 997.850290402951} | 1 | will-my-next-fortune-cookie-be-a-ju | 100 | Will my next fortune cookie be a "judgment cookie?" | 1717772391506 | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570334058667203 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717253380814 | Quroe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a personally subjective market. Market resolves to my personal whim. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I deem my next fortune cookie from a restaurant as a judgment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", such as if it says something about my quality of character/person, is a command for how to live my life AND arguably isn't a proverb, or is about something from the past. For example, the following would be examples of what I would deem as a judgment cookie:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"You are a strong willed individual.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"What happened in the past happened for a reason.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"What you are wearing today looks amazing.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Perhaps you've been focusing too much on spending.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"People are drawn to you for advice.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Let your imagination wander.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Be better than the you you were yesterday.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I deem it as a fortune", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", such as if it says something about the future, is a proverb / life lesson, or is just generally silly / a non-sequitor. Notably, commands that I deem as proverbs will be considered a fortune instead of a judgment. For example:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"This too shall pass.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Hungry is the man who looks for advice from a fortune cookie.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Don't let statistics do a number on you.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Business opportunity will soon make itself apparent.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Even a broken clock is right twice a day.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Good news will come to you from far away.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Help, I'm being held hostage in a fortune cookie factory.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I eat out and get a fortune cookie at least once per week, normally. If I get a fortune cookie before June 8, 2024, I will wait to open it until some point on that day and resolve then, but I will otherwise extend this market until I am served a fortune cookie. I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4989239898913128} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.379826810446652, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717772391506 | 1000 | Quroe | 1717788015055 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705720408182 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717253381037}] | ["fun"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717506103864 | 1717788013898 | 0.5 | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | DGIZAUSacYzUMKMOgeNP | {"NO": 5837.036642254401, "YES": 171.31980854137373} | 1 | after-flying-out-from-australia-for | 6230.426186499767 | After flying out from Australia for LessOnline/camp, will me/my non-Rationalist GF be convinced to stay for manifest? | 1717809175684 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.882116923797213 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717254860316 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We are currently planning to try to go to Disney land afterwards but haven’t bought tickets.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.7127319017883895} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.43084097504713, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717809175684 | 1000 | keltan | 1717982047705 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | [{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1717254860480}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717254860501}, {"name": "LessOnline", "slug": "lessonline", "groupId": "96d9dff6-14de-4d58-9b38-e88ecde26502", "createdTime": 1717254860502}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717982047705}] | ["sf-events", "manifest", "lessonline", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1717808728839 | 1717809441802 | 0.97 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x | how-many-people-will-attend-baraks | 17230.56097852395 | How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics | 1718002385709 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.161275740015869 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1717254919501 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Attendee count includes Barak and any staff present, and will be a best-effort max point-in-time count taken by Barak. As in, resolves to the highest number of people attending the session between 4p and 5p.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Session details below, and RSVPs are on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "schedule.less.online", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://schedule.less.online", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Repolarize American Politics: How to make the two-party system irrelevant", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Saturday, 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM. Location: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Gyroscope, Lighthaven, Berkeley", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With negative polarization at an all-time high and memes like prediction markets and ranked-choice voting gaining steam, American Politics Company believes the time is right to redefine political affiliation in a nonpartisan way. Come learn how America's loss of a shared informational commons and toxic polarization has been 50 years in the making, how Manifold is already improving politics in San Francisco, and how we can all express our political identities proudly, in a healthier way. Can read more context at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "americanpolitics.co", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://americanpolitics.co", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 226.04247922093384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718002385709 | 15000 | barak | 1718002709395 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9ct1sg1qje", "prob": 0.03, "text": "1-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 315.40325095016584, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10249.052798501129, "textFts": "'-5':2 '1':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0030304394935005106, "month": -0.4701448660040999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T15:00:07.801", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0030304394935005106, "resolutionTime": 1718002385709, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4701448660040999, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "qqpm5ingn0", "prob": 0.09, "text": "6-12", "index": 1, "poolNo": 569.3119568764171, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5757.967002171606, "textFts": "'-12':2 '6':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.005919330832887662, "month": -0.4100226241704896}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T06:21:11.718", "probChangeDay": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.005919330832887662, "resolutionTime": 1718002383152, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4100226241704896, "resolutionProbability": 0.09}, {"id": "uq5mqa6wus", "prob": 0.18, "text": "13-19", "index": 2, "poolNo": 844.998432540464, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3976.120683480022, "textFts": "'-19':2 '13':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.015217283004490184, "month": -0.32472981641699117}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T06:21:11.717", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.015217283004490184, "resolutionTime": 1718002380597, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.32472981641699117, "resolutionProbability": 0.18}, {"id": "joarq7en0a", "prob": 0.21, "text": "20-29", "index": 3, "poolNo": 936.1443278381057, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3604.0796335015716, "textFts": "'-29':2 '20':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2938109802931662}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T22:21:07.659", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718002378350, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.2938109802931662, "resolutionProbability": 0.21}, {"id": "r4fwt1fzo8", "prob": 0.24, "text": "30-40", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1030.9842866582844, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3272.541346789326, "textFts": "'-40':2 '30':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.033378343072495015, "month": -0.2604326372206712}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T22:21:07.659", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.033378343072495015, "resolutionTime": 1718002376219, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.2604326372206712, "resolutionProbability": 0.24}, {"id": "hjyteopapv", "prob": 0.23, "text": "41+", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1120.6381935769698, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3718.652124269722, "textFts": "'41':1", "contractId": "9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "createdTime": 1717254919501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.004773384333927405, "month": -0.26842922826014437}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T06:00:11.603", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.004773384333927405, "resolutionTime": 1718002373431, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.26842922826014437, "resolutionProbability": 0.23}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646980755807 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717254919852}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717254919850}, {"name": "The Agency's Billboard", "slug": "the-agencys-billboard", "groupId": "5b14838c-a0e0-40ea-b929-c239baa216dc", "createdTime": 1717254919851}] | ["us-politics", "manifest", "the-agencys-billboard"] | 0.25 | 1717603956976 | 1718002708100 | 0.03 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | zETvtXxCIboNIwZcjH8P | {"NO": 749.5281276697758, "YES": 1334.172745603186} | 0.35971004153415703 | will-usain-bolt-be-exposed-as-a-dru | 595 | Will Usain Bolt be exposed as a drugs cheat by 2050? | 2524607940000 | wFJFI2zWYLXWBk8ntc1c0HQUyVB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.5666074164191 | False | basic | public | 1717255263854 | Tom Finnie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Usain Bolt's 100m record still stands far ahead of the best times set in the 15 years since. Most of the other top flight sprinters of his era have since been caught doping. Will Usain Bolt too?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Confession, conviction, retested samples or universally accepted accusations a la Lance Armstrong would all count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0337432478150087} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.2024748519991, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TomFinnie | 1717845814670 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzTFcrM10lyXi4iPstf5HI3KioX-B-cOeePVyX2=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1655361878127 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717255264012}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1717255264034}] | ["sports-default", "athletics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717845811545 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu | on-what-date-will-the-first-starlin | 98950.89297371634 | On what date will the first Starliner crewed launch happen? | 1717599223419 | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.801871706513199 | True | plus | c2xocxjazy | public | 1717259380181 | Gordan Knott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here we go again!!!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GordanKnott/on-what-date-will-the-first-crewed-0c96846dd209?r=R29yZGFuS25vdHQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 484.75653046800534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717599223419 | 10500 | GordanKnott | 1717857006142 | 0 | 38 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bfg758oger", "prob": 0.0027269494970493927, "text": "June 2nd", "index": 0, "poolNo": 191.41301702665828, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70001.67901998045, "textFts": "'2nd':2 'june':1", "contractId": "hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu", "resolverId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "createdTime": 1717259380181, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:42:49.869", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717599223419, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.5}, {"id": "c2xocxjazy", "prob": 0.9785036556324979, "text": "June 5th", "index": 1, "poolNo": 13401.256236244682, "userId": "ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 294.4066865291761, "textFts": "'5th':2 'june':1", "contractId": "hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu", "resolverId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "createdTime": 1717260119272, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.6109289968719303, "month": 0.6109289968719303}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:42:49.873", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.6109289968719303, "resolutionTime": 1717599223419, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.6109289968719303}, {"id": "qyu2kdmf4u", "prob": 0.003654359838841441, "text": "June 6th", "index": 2, "poolNo": 109.0418834285365, "userId": "ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29729.80492896051, "textFts": "'6th':2 'june':1", "contractId": "hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu", "resolverId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "createdTime": 1717260123475, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.19095188325787082, "month": -0.19095188325787082}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:42:49.869", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.19095188325787082, "resolutionTime": 1717599223419, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.19095188325787082}, {"id": "7mfjpqd33l", "prob": 0.015115035031611228, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 445.8675887762613, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29052.415931161624, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu", "resolverId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "createdTime": 1717259380181, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:42:49.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717599223419, "totalLiquidity": 1237.6342094008662, "probChangeMonth": -0.5}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698871173640 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717259380487}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717259380484}, {"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1717857006142}] | ["spacex", "rockets", "starliner"] | 0.25 | 1717599208828 | 1717599198865 | {"c2xocxjazy": 100} | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | rVelFlL0vgWxc1KGUFQ8 | {"NO": 623.0553680381918, "YES": 1604.993795573401} | 0.27964166061230006 | will-the-rocket-explode | 767 | WILL THE ROCKET EXPLODE | 1717387140000 | wWKPoD2VdqOy8gcS4cnCGvuE3YR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605428246955277 | False | basic | public | 1717259739401 | MisterBhole | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the rocket explode and get destroyed", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.9588983753759, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MisterBhole | 1717383718575 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5gYQQQ3tpRz6BXI312sVtQuLHvH5twOVs3V0UE=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675908968745 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717383715456 | 1717350994242 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | fnK2rNummPbqzy9bdUxY | {"NO": 720.7790027557303, "YES": 1387.3878070486705} | 0.34189846809257257 | will-the-peoples-republic-of-china | 656.049748764239 | Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050? | 2524694340000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58705561316144 | False | basic | public | 1717266801521 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the outcome of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the corresponding Metaculus market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.015661154005091105} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.423625109925073, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1718093440580 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | [{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1717266801767}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "groupId": "2b786f84-e655-456c-b6f9-4022ee9873a3", "createdTime": 1717266801784}, {"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1717266801771}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1717266801791}] | ["china", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "taiwan", "metaculus"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718093437386 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa | predominant-color-of-trumps-suit-at | 11373.463274864584 | Predominant color of Trump's suit at the debate on June 27 | 1719566401791 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | pf6v3tw41n | public | 1717266936275 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 115.69571203482461, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566408440 | 1000 | Base | 1719566401791 | 0 | 55 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pf6v3tw41n", "prob": 0.9923123477185165, "text": "Blue", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3279.719552124033, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.40867656789878, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717266936275, "probChanges": {"day": 0.04606112248196592, "week": -0.004981902623975576, "month": 0.46645257497303105}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:24:30.647", "probChangeDay": 0.04606112248196592, "probChangeWeek": -0.004981902623975576, "resolutionTime": 1719566408440, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.46645257497303105}, {"id": "43sacvzbjp", "prob": 0.0030037004578152273, "text": "Black", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.844951498655178, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5259.298732495776, "textFts": "'black':1", "contractId": "P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717266936275, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03289828314612972, "week": 0.0035439846907485417, "month": -0.0702667616255043}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:24:30.646", "probChangeDay": -0.03289828314612972, "probChangeWeek": 0.0035439846907485417, "resolutionTime": 1719566408440, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.0702667616255043}, {"id": "son7blw0cr", "prob": 0.0022698885618219924, "text": "Grey", "index": 2, "poolNo": 13.769085777788177, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6052.205257357374, "textFts": "'grey':1", "contractId": "P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717266936275, "probChanges": {"day": -0.01049718970871015, "week": 0.0011397104359934795, "month": -0.17526220001653878}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:24:30.648", "probChangeDay": -0.01049718970871015, "probChangeWeek": 0.0011397104359934795, "resolutionTime": 1719566408440, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.17526220001653878}, {"id": "v0wi7szy0b", "prob": 0.0024140632618463685, "text": "other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 14.200660388877395, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5868.271689576046, "textFts": "", "contractId": "P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717266936275, "probChanges": {"day": -0.002665649627126024, "week": 0.0002982074972332355, "month": -0.22092361333098803}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:24:30.648", "probChangeDay": -0.002665649627126024, "probChangeWeek": 0.0002982074972332355, "resolutionTime": 1719566408440, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.22092361333098803}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717266936500}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717266936502}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717266936509}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717266936514}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717266936566}] | ["politics-default", "debate", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1719566398697 | 1719540041340 | {"pf6v3tw41n": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | CldMKDYl6GYxoAiQc92R | {"NO": 128.52123299379355, "YES": 7780.815486327393} | 0 | will-i-stay-in-masters-league-in-ju | 8030.5422300397995 | Will I stay in Masters league in June? | 1719903540000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863877554429859 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717268828044 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I am demoted", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2641207705837741, "month": -0.4804361648315947} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.330049146795425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719930607315 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1719933864198 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 21 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1717268828180}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717268828195}, {"name": "Masters League", "slug": "masters-league", "groupId": "33de3f34-cff5-4952-a0d8-e731c2c37f5f", "createdTime": 1717268828200}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717268828203}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717271577129}] | ["manifold-leagues", "personal-goals", "masters-league", "manifold-6748e065087e", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719885936793 | 1719933862364 | 0.02 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI | which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m-irpyuxdalv | 1620 | Which Manifold user will have the most unredeemed prize points at the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717269804392 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at year end, based on what prize points are still in the user's account that haven't been cashed out or converted to mana.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution is unaffected if prize points simply change name.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've added a few likely contenders, including those who will start with a leg up from the most recent season before this market. Add away!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves based on the instant before midnight at 11:59pm, Pacific Time, December 31st 2024, aka the Manifold local time.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.89363967474517, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | Stralor | 1718181680648 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0gs5ezo4nm", "prob": 0.05655516048423795, "text": "[Prize points will no longer exist]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 88.81329266710476, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1481.5702392098356, "textFts": "'exist':6 'longer':5 'point':2 'prize':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0032194187442887642, "month": -0.0863019823729049}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.39", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0032194187442887642, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.0863019823729049}, {"id": "0wqkr638lo", "prob": 0.07246047918098851, "text": "@Joshua", "index": 1, "poolNo": 101.65413637678968, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1301.2366190498005, "textFts": "'joshua':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.004553558428961685, "month": -0.07039666367615434}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.394", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.004553558428961685, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.07039666367615434}, {"id": "avt76ehxv6", "prob": 0.041369404865867175, "text": "@SemioticRivalry", "index": 2, "poolNo": 75.15226298582296, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1741.462291405051, "textFts": "'semioticrivalri':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0020599331659028886, "month": -0.10148773799127567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0020599331659028886, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.10148773799127567}, {"id": "8dg9q8l0b5", "prob": 0.05461436238233981, "text": "@strutheo", "index": 3, "poolNo": 86.91397204172551, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1504.4984010125493, "textFts": "'strutheo':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.003073097304675129, "month": -0.08824278047480304}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.394", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.003073097304675129, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.08824278047480304}, {"id": "r5zlhwukfl", "prob": 0.041369404865867175, "text": "@Ziddletwix", "index": 4, "poolNo": 75.15226298582296, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1741.462291405051, "textFts": "'ziddletwix':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0020599331659028886, "month": -0.10148773799127567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.392", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0020599331659028886, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.10148773799127567}, {"id": "7gf6x79xd8", "prob": 0.041369404865867175, "text": "@KevinBurke", "index": 5, "poolNo": 75.15226298582296, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1741.462291405051, "textFts": "'kevinburk':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0020599331659028886, "month": -0.10148773799127567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.393", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0020599331659028886, "totalLiquidity": 357.21725415588014, "probChangeMonth": -0.10148773799127567}, {"id": "y3umu7sibz", "prob": 0.0765516687238525, "text": "Genzy", "index": 6, "poolNo": 88.36861028629838, "userId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1065.9969542982378, "textFts": "'genzi':1", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717279457922, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.00587148155337433, "month": -0.340165102032715}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.389", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.00587148155337433, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.340165102032715}, {"id": "kia78zace3", "prob": 0.6157101146309798, "text": "Other", "index": 7, "poolNo": 467.4467366398626, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 291.7526423081713, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI", "createdTime": 1717269804392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.022897355529009067, "month": 0.47285297177383695}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:34.388", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.022897355529009067, "totalLiquidity": 310.7306240829396, "probChangeMonth": 0.47285297177383695}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1717269804651}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717269804657}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1717269804658}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1717600444893 | 1717308425992 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | aCQHTHa3WTOfz5bJMnst | {"NO": 759.6477488624699, "YES": 1316.3996095525115} | 0.36591060689600363 | will-all-three-of-trumps-remaining | 1912.1997093095495 | Will all three of Trump's remaining criminal cases actually go to trial? | 1767074340000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.557047404917999 | False | basic | public | 1717270112343 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After being convicted in the New York hush money case, Trump has three trials left: The D.C. case over Jan. 6 and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, the classified documents case in Florida, and the racketeering case in Georgia for attempting to pressure Brad Raffensperger into falsifying election results. Most or all of these cases will not happen until after the 2024 election, meaning that Trump may be able to force the Justice Department to drop their cases against him if he is reelected in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if all three cases eventually go to trial, regardless of whether there is a guilty verdict, an acquittal, a hung jury, or a mixed verdict. Only one charge from each case needs to actually be tried - if all but one are dropped, it still counts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if at least one of the cases is dropped or settled out of court, for any reason, or if Trump dies before one of the cases goes to trial.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is indicted on even more charges in the future, they have no impact on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.01701236112453558} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.930698747324506, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PlasmaBallin | 1719228500226 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "Georgia Trial", "slug": "georgia-trial", "groupId": "6690473d-7db9-4b40-a613-0055aa80ed50", "createdTime": 1717270112473}, {"name": "January 6th", "slug": "january-6th", "groupId": "39713818-0ad3-40bb-ae3c-5dba184ab0a9", "createdTime": 1717270112476}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717270112501}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717270112514}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717270112524}] | ["georgia-trial", "january-6th", "donald-trump", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719228497170 | 1717296469333 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
svxcGPW9LFmcRqYLNRxW | what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-z7dx8c3pt0 | 0 | What was the most dramatic event on Manifold of May 2024? | 1717480740000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717271197459 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What was the most dramatic event on Manifold of May 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-8a0545e32889", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-8a0545e32889", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717480740586 | Gabrielle | 1717271197599 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 40 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641356493109 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1717271197600}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717271197599}] | ["manifold-drama", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | ["14twbn322e"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc | what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-zgrov4cuhk | 2876.432661249363 | What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024? | 1719813540000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | dfq5r0jij5 | public | 1717271303544 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the results of a poll held starting after the month ends. A tie will resolve equally to all the tied answers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone can add more answers. Any answers that are clearly trolling will not be polled. Overlapping answers are allowed if they are significantly different.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last month's market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-8a0545e32889", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-8a0545e32889", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last month's poll: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-z7dx8c3pt0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-z7dx8c3pt0", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.64526476722118, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720140281180 | 1350 | Gabrielle | 1719813540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 26 | 9 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3bjkniwynn", "prob": 0.09714465177140855, "text": "Nothing particularly dramatic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 119.05096233751776, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1106.4510098931, "textFts": "'dramat':3 'noth':1 'particular':2", "contractId": "SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1717271303544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3307801974584279, "month": -0.252622908215977}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:42:04.481", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3307801974584279, "resolutionTime": 1720140281180, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.252622908215977}, {"id": "mt6plxak6q", "prob": 0.09056955335811592, "text": "Events at Manifest/Less Online", "index": 1, "poolNo": 114.65408278955981, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1151.268940328514, "textFts": "'event':1 'manifest/less':3 'onlin':4", "contractId": "SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1717271303544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.17304030161904108, "month": -0.1084216818770962}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:42:04.485", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.17304030161904108, "resolutionTime": 1720140281180, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.1084216818770962}, {"id": "w4kmh5lemw", "prob": 0.0597133158529197, "text": "Controversial Prize Market Resolution", "index": 2, "poolNo": 91.30258432329491, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1437.7128960459909, "textFts": "'controversi':1 'market':3 'prize':2 'resolut':4", "contractId": "SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1717272592680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.052586752619551265, "month": -0.026266148402846738}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:42:04.482", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.052586752619551265, "resolutionTime": 1720140281180, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.026266148402846738}, {"id": "dfq5r0jij5", "prob": 0.6744946508830744, "text": "The presidential debate", "index": 3, "poolNo": 291.69395191146157, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 140.76900614100728, "textFts": "'debat':3 'presidenti':2", "contractId": "SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1719756932411, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.4759706920009559, "month": 0.4759706920009559}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.4759706920009559, "resolutionTime": 1720140281180, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.4759706920009559}, {"id": "be5qpxp6hz", "prob": 0.07807782813448148, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 105.71456371203531, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1248.2493750639287, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1717271303544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1180873991860542, "month": -0.2871839123871545}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:42:04.482", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1180873991860542, "resolutionTime": 1720140281180, "totalLiquidity": 239.63761516648987, "probChangeMonth": -0.2871839123871545}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641356493109 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717271303898}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717271303897}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1717271303940}] | ["manifest", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | 1719811593322 | 1720139864597 | {"dfq5r0jij5": 100} | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hJHqIK3YOYvL655fjs0t | {"NO": 955.9513348205289, "YES": 1046.0783552206044} | 0.47749108795728606 | will-twa800-crash-lawsuit-krick-v-r | 155 | Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs? | 1780379940000 | 4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570648405900837 | False | basic | public | 1717272599168 | Tracy Harms | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-news/2022/07/families-file-suit-against-government-claiming-twa-flight-800-was-destroyed-by-an-errant-united-states-missile/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-news/2022/07/families-file-suit-against-government-claiming-twa-flight-800-was-destroyed-by-an-errant-united-states-missile/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timeframe is to be extended until case is resolved or dismissed. Dismissal resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.025729566947118143, "month": 0.025729566947118143} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.19044291213142, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TracyHarms | 1719950837587 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712606292629 | 0 | [{"name": "Conspiracy Theories", "slug": "conspiracy-theories", "groupId": "nA6pS69y2sycuFtfYI7o", "createdTime": 1717272599367}, {"name": "Lawsuits", "slug": "lawsuits", "groupId": "c74b38cc-371d-4e7f-95f6-49c820f67f88", "createdTime": 1717272599361}, {"name": "plane crash", "slug": "plane-crash", "groupId": "511c64f9-3171-4d58-a3a3-993d55484af5", "createdTime": 1717298607528}] | ["conspiracy-theories", "lawsuits", "plane-crash"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719950834255 | 1717299324070 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA | what-commercials-will-cnn-air-durin | 93780.34573323664 | What commercials will CNN air during its Biden-Trump debate? | 1719813281631 | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.7657112741241345 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1717274265773 | ClubmasterTransparent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 619.11070602302, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719813281631 | 10500 | ClubmasterTransparent | 1719813281631 | 0 | 24 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "opaiysuklw", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Audi", "index": 0, "poolNo": 275.37697205778386, "userId": "UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27262.320233720493, "textFts": "'audi':1", "contractId": "Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1717274265774, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04435204069122195, "week": -0.49351573129472665, "month": -0.48999999999999994}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:42:14.659", "probChangeDay": -0.04435204069122195, "probChangeWeek": -0.49351573129472665, "resolutionTime": 1719813281631, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.48999999999999994, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "24k7rvj24s", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Ozempic", "index": 1, "poolNo": 265.63326064742796, "userId": "UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26297.69280409523, "textFts": "'ozemp':1", "contractId": "Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1717274265774, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2186997626324713, "week": -0.5419807406777432, "month": -0.4365978270217}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:25.314", "probChangeDay": -0.2186997626324713, "probChangeWeek": -0.5419807406777432, "resolutionTime": 1719813279481, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.4365978270217, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "79q433t1bm", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Capital One", "index": 2, "poolNo": 273.0113325453767, "userId": "UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27028.121921992315, "textFts": "'capit':1 'one':2", "contractId": "Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1717274265774, "probChanges": {"day": -0.038358336410581576, "week": -0.5364908979051546, "month": -0.49}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:25.315", "probChangeDay": -0.038358336410581576, "probChangeWeek": -0.5364908979051546, "resolutionTime": 1719813274357, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.49, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "xqt0v38zh7", "prob": 0.01, "text": "A Joe Biden campaign ad", "index": 3, "poolNo": 150.43996293253258, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14893.556330320738, "textFts": "'ad':5 'biden':3 'campaign':4 'joe':2", "contractId": "Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1717274610035, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07999999999999993, "week": -0.6378265629413494, "month": -0.49}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:21:17.623", "probChangeDay": -0.07999999999999993, "probChangeWeek": -0.6378265629413494, "resolutionTime": 1719813271878, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "yi1gx5kthk", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Burger King", "index": 4, "poolNo": 25.12594538148028, "userId": "Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.4685927665496, "textFts": "'burger':1 'king':2", "contractId": "Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1717390014786, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05196700072341627, "week": -0.4938357543217623, "month": -0.49}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:00:27.854", "probChangeDay": -0.05196700072341627, "probChangeWeek": -0.4938357543217623, "resolutionTime": 1719813276662, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696796918520 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717274266032}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1717274266027}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717274266038}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717274266042}] | ["us-politics", "tv", "fun", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719812985136 | 1719812967194 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | IkxCZ1KxXUgH2EFy6Pbd | {"NO": 1644.9538668742848, "YES": 607.9197843403255} | 1 | will-gme-reach-50-before-ether-end | 8620.226230450053 | Will GME reach $50 before ether end of June 2024 | 1717708423918 | 7Bj5HMJ0odhpaAOakIX7ZuiHx9x2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.609211875429903 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717274540088 | Nav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GameStop closed on $23.14 on May 31st 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Includes pre-market price in USD", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolved to YES since GME crossed $50 after hours on June 6th 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6072598429762939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 253.62686781323436, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717708423918 | 1000 | navitron32 | 1717709832839 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690944834818 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717274540309}] | ["stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717708186624 | 1717709831232 | 0.73 | 7Bj5HMJ0odhpaAOakIX7ZuiHx9x2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sINW5vlMVvpS1xQ4hwOI | would-you-be-willing-to-sacrifice-y | 0 | Would you choose to save two other lives with your own life? | MCbUkwjw7ebMPbGwctaZmM1ca2U2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717274898156 | ZYC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open to any questions. And consider this as just a survey. No persuasion towards one nor the other for this question. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | zyc | 1717344647300 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701037177112 | 0 | [{"name": "Ethics", "slug": "ethics", "groupId": "8423af51-efe9-4061-82de-f61c3ebeac6a", "createdTime": 1717274898286}, {"name": "Sociology", "slug": "sociology", "groupId": "iRdbpPisROiQsbEQG6xh", "createdTime": 1717274898292}] | ["ethics", "sociology"] | 0.25 | 1717282376738 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq | which-team-will-be-super-rugby-paci | 13722.73562659668 | Which team will be Super Rugby Pacific champions for 2024? | 1719046936330 | HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | lqbfm0e2y1 | public | 1717276901733 | Julian Lees | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the team who wins the final of Super Rugby Pacific in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.64381014828191, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719046936330 | 2000 | JulianLees | 1719046936330 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "90swd1094o", "prob": 0.04497490308881337, "text": "Hurricanes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 82.02168858005052, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1741.699608119126, "textFts": "'hurrican':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.03280343347943905, "month": -0.08002509691118663}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.705", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.03280343347943905, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.08002509691118663}, {"id": "lqbfm0e2y1", "prob": 0.5306535183977641, "text": "Blues", "index": 1, "poolNo": 401.89233264590166, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 355.4612299185391, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.04634533758567844, "month": 0.4056535183977641}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.04634533758567844, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": 0.4056535183977641}, {"id": "7ympr4elmr", "prob": 0.04930933868275893, "text": "Brumbies", "index": 2, "poolNo": 86.07875066302765, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1659.6098544272124, "textFts": "'brumbi':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -0.0065876994229886535, "month": -0.07569066131724107}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.707", "probChangeDay": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.0065876994229886535, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.07569066131724107}, {"id": "uy1nbwsrgy", "prob": 0.32381707220363143, "text": "Chiefs", "index": 3, "poolNo": 261.55844702132737, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 546.1767512539727, "textFts": "'chief':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.006182927796368698, "month": 0.19881707220363143}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.71", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.006182927796368698, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": 0.19881707220363143}, {"id": "crsjua9eai", "prob": 0.012632415606628556, "text": "Reds", "index": 4, "poolNo": 42.751834006208725, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3341.544197528388, "textFts": "'red':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.00018881839134751027, "month": -0.11236758439337144}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.706", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.00018881839134751027, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.11236758439337144}, {"id": "sdvirl4sc2", "prob": 0.013008296442220478, "text": "Highlanders", "index": 5, "poolNo": 43.39147783164305, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3292.285720514573, "textFts": "'highland':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.000197225641102753, "month": -0.11199170355777952}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.71", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.000197225641102753, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.11199170355777952}, {"id": "nqowknyb7i", "prob": 0.012615983241571024, "text": "Fijian Drua", "index": 6, "poolNo": 42.72366344885191, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3343.7475002154147, "textFts": "'drua':2 'fijian':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": -5.204170427930421e-18, "week": -0.00018845352502922137, "month": -0.11238401675842898}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.708", "probChangeDay": -5.204170427930421e-18, "probChangeWeek": -0.00018845352502922137, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.11238401675842898}, {"id": "1mvcqip7s5", "prob": 0.012988472336612196, "text": "Rebels", "index": 7, "poolNo": 43.357966388214095, "userId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3294.8303335549354, "textFts": "'rebel':1", "contractId": "C6QwSthwc9eZSmmLvzIq", "resolverId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "createdTime": 1717276901733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.00019677932940243698, "month": -0.1120115276633878}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:42:28.708", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.00019677932940243698, "resolutionTime": 1719046936330, "totalLiquidity": 377.9644730092272, "probChangeMonth": -0.1120115276633878}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690950883027 | 0 | [{"name": "Rugby", "slug": "rugby", "groupId": "s9RHjLUS0vXCC5M6gCKb", "createdTime": 1717276902383}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717276902406}, {"name": "Rugby Union", "slug": "rugby-union", "groupId": "zwGpLZiAFgqXUQyAzmSv", "createdTime": 1717276902405}, {"name": "2023 Rugby World Cup", "slug": "2023-rugby-world-cup", "groupId": "H1SEpow3e6Ir1knkiMso", "createdTime": 1717276902408}, {"name": "Super Rugby Pacific", "slug": "super-rugby-pacific", "groupId": "a62c8ad7-7995-4fd4-971e-0f67849b3ebb", "createdTime": 1717276902407}] | ["rugby", "sports-default", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup", "super-rugby-pacific"] | 0.25 | 1718703473461 | {"lqbfm0e2y1": 100} | HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | iFWMpuucj8zASD6dEj2v | {"NO": 945.0058173006952, "YES": 1058.1945440890408} | 0.471748026565396 | will-luffy-have-a-garp | 187.05928864254818 | Will Luffy have a "Garp"? | 1735685940000 | xPrlNWeWvqV0M8zF3Uds1n9krku2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57083010529839 | False | basic | public | 1717277692788 | Jules Goddaert | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Someone in the Navy who is the equivalent of Garp to Roger.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Could be Smoker, could be Koby.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves in NO if the Navy doesnt have a prominent character that can \"rival\" Luffy so to speak (but also have to have a bond with).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.022755083939120624} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.292088329789892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JulesGoddaert | 1720204328608 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLwPjtdz3JLqXfxN57ep2EoJ2DiPFd8nbUtzjZ7PXWZj9lALg=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714473652138 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717277692936}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717277692937}] | ["manga", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719454503148 | 1720204327158 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4 | {"NO": 2442.0109403016486, "YES": 409.498574923042} | 0.856392351932666 | will-the-nintendo-switch-2-have-the | 2015.1972470331323 | Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch? | 1735793940000 | ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.69836441054092 | False | basic | public | 1717279070339 | KiWiiU | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this to be true, the switch 2 must have a small portable screen and detachable controllers on the left and ride sides (like joycons) and be connected to a TV by a dock visually similar to the switch's dock.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004432118726273582} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.5730306445255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KiWiiU | 1718048937612 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZvAtIf79h7TzS-fEoD5CT_JPUPi6MDOpjCGT11lh-UW0t1SJl=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715121414600 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717279070685}, {"name": "Nintendo Switch", "slug": "nintendo-switch", "groupId": "0b9393ef-d3f7-4ced-8841-12dcff68fdb4", "createdTime": 1717279070687}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1717279070684}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1717279070680}] | ["technology-default", "nintendo-switch", "video-games", "nintendo"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718048934438 | 1717844155842 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg | which-nextgen-frontier-llms-will-be | 3402.4729545796026 | Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025) | 1767254340000 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717280751872 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When a model named GPT-5 is released, all options resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When a model named matching an option is released, it resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At end of 2025, all options resolve 50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can add options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution is by name, not by expectation or capability.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"GPT-5\" is not literal. \"GPT-5\", \"GPT 5\", \"GPT 5.0\" all match. But there has to be a \"5\" somewhere. If it's named \"GPT-Next\" but described as \"fifth generation of the GPT series\" I'll accept that as GPT-5. But there has to be a 5 either in the name or in the release article unambiguously designating it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Next frontier model after GPT-4\" is not clear enough. There must be a \"5\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Slight variations of the others are also accepted(\"Gemini 2\" vs. \"Gemini-2.0\" but not \"Gemini 1.5 Ultra\" or \"Gemini Next\").", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.2573770099261, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | Mira | 1719742107254 | 0 | 23 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "x4roqepkm3", "prob": 0.2929153058738187, "text": "Llama 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 160.9071428405382, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 388.4227815911109, "textFts": "'4':2 'llama':1", "contractId": "kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg", "createdTime": 1717280751872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18520567354480205}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:00:06.148", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.18520567354480205}, {"id": "3smrs3cwqd", "prob": 0.3644597325450207, "text": "Claude 4", "index": 1, "poolNo": 189.31858444283952, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 330.1313507278547, "textFts": "'4':2 'claud':1", "contractId": "kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg", "createdTime": 1717280751872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.04826498030391224, "month": -0.10692330477906875}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:00:23.143", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.04826498030391224, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.10692330477906875}, {"id": "5s34ja351g", "prob": 0.041279251963626896, "text": "Claude 5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 51.87520845757476, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1204.8144356106961, "textFts": "'5':2 'claud':1", "contractId": "kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg", "createdTime": 1717280751872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.05710359169050921, "month": -0.4587207480363731}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:00:06.147", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.05710359169050921, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.4587207480363731}, {"id": "qwbojcasum", "prob": 0.7138489168644965, "text": "Gemini 2", "index": 3, "poolNo": 394.8621119541129, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 158.28310214595422, "textFts": "'2':2 'gemini':1", "contractId": "kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg", "createdTime": 1717280751872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.060016027823568296, "month": 0.2631692007395803}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T13:42:21.736", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.060016027823568296, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.2631692007395803}, {"id": "29im1806kp", "prob": 0.7186164875975679, "text": "Grok 2", "index": 4, "poolNo": 159.80827562820326, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.574982182181714, "textFts": "'2':2 'grok':1", "contractId": "kj7pwEXBmqqBRH2ulngg", "createdTime": 1717562331336, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2186164875975679}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.2186164875975679}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1717280752104}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1717280752102}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1717280752103}] | ["gpt5-speculation", "llms", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1719742103916 | 1719513193161 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 28N6FFhIpP47klfDeDJk | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066184} | 0 | will-cnn-say-cnn | 17308.059699827827 | Will CNN say CNN? | 1719547140000 | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717282167349 | Jon Simon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During the June 27th presidential debate hosted on CNN, will convolutional neural networks (CNNs) be mentioned by name? Acceptable phrasings include:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Convolutional network\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Convolutional neural network\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Convnet\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"CNN\" (if it's clear that they mean the neural network architecture)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if any of the above are said aloud by any of the moderators, debators, or anyone else audible on the night of the debate hosted on CNN.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02693160830329725} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 98.99641463183058, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719601983671 | 1000 | jonsimon | 1719547140000 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671769279486 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717282167495}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717282167497}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717397696657}, {"name": "Pun Title", "slug": "pun-title", "groupId": "CumRSQVdXMDu6qr8iWcQ", "createdTime": 1717397733159}, {"name": "Nominative Determinism", "slug": "nominative-determinism", "groupId": "6105ec8d-d31a-4e6d-9165-a8e40fe613c4", "createdTime": 1717397739237}] | ["us-politics", "ai", "debate", "pun-title", "nominative-determinism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719546124854 | 1719592159805 | 0.01 | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FqLzLGRgQeTv9697j0QI | why-do-you-click-on-markets-on-the | 0 | Why do you click on markets on the home page? | 1719903540000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717283413958 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm curious why people click on things on the home page. Please fill me in so I can better recommend markets to you!", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | ian | 1717356763509 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717283414110}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1717356762383 | ["0fcyvywvd0"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PIzcP4xG8V0ENtLExWhC | are-you-going-to-manifold-2024 | 0 | Are you going to Manifest 2024? | 1735718340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717286589816 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hey if you're going, we should make sure to meet up ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like reproducing network graphs in real life", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Ernie | 1717338740786 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717286590009}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717286590018}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717338739513 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | xAiFM64f8ZGAQHjcIX1D | {"NO": 9915.896410291385, "YES": 100.8481693054132} | 1 | will-i-demote-from-masters-to-diamo | 14090.441520515866 | Will I demote from Masters to Diamond this Season? (Season 14) | 1719918513415 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849909604887497 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717290134581 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Masters League", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leagues/14/masters/serendipitous-totems/dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.4136397588115033, "month": 0.20095869589118254} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 144.27404329625628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719918519725 | 1000 | Base | 1719918513415 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717290134721}, {"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1717290134722}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717290134734}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1717290134735}, {"name": "Masters League", "slug": "masters-league", "groupId": "33de3f34-cff5-4952-a0d8-e731c2c37f5f", "createdTime": 1717290134737}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-leagues", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-users", "masters-league"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719918510619 | 1719791505948 | 0.99 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5107335092264844 | 5vJoPZxMhm0L6EMRlA7j | {"NO": 17512.239181887646, "YES": 5842.902126351581} | 0.7577921759793528 | will-sb-1047-survive-this-legislati | 7851 | Will SB 1047 survive this legislative session such that the bill makes it to Governor Newsom’s desk? | 1727765940000 | U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8675156422139865 | False | plus | public | 1717294704582 | Haven | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over the course of the next few months, SB 1047 will be going through the California Assembly, and if it survives, will go to the governor’s office in September to be signed or vetoed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://safesecureai.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://safesecureai.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0010117694696316626, "week": 0.0010117694696316626, "month": 0.07915060978590582} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 188.07364391033087, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 10000 | HWH | 1720168868345 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706651628330 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717294705067}, {"name": "AI Governance & Policy 🏛️", "slug": "ai-governance-policy", "groupId": "60b88396-4d7e-4971-9752-6dd69288f8e3", "createdTime": 1717294705070}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717294705074}] | ["ai", "ai-governance-policy", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720168865231 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | DqChZRobOppl6HDnHVnv | {"NO": 922.325845351688, "YES": 1084.2155243071327} | 0.4596595212529879 | will-there-be-an-official-hundreds | 219 | Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571348571598644 | False | basic | public | 1717294837295 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hundreds of Beavers is a slapstick indie comedy film released this year that has heavy game inspiration in some parts. The director has expressed interest in a game being made some day. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/wxkutAg_Cms", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnU3bagSLrn.png?alt=media&token=f0c82a62-bd99-4098-a4fe-0ae1264bb991", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02462421157483602} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.288040061974438, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718002999732 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717294837457}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1717294837466}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717294837469}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1717294837503}] | ["gaming", "movies", "entertainment", "video-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718002996617 | 1717940308067 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4947337593365901 | D2sZ1UgJ9CrceBH3NUIf | {"NO": 765.454831250474, "YES": 7012.546326326223} | 0.09655942709832228 | will-starship-ift5-carry-starlink-s | 5288.204608706131 | Will Starship IFT-5 carry Starlink Satellites? | 1735649940000 | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.042094159702022 | False | basic | public | 1717296675880 | NGK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.06165486006943126} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 89.54082098760098, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2300 | NGK | 1718220015943 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666740924702 | 0 | [{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717296676077}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717296676079}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717296676080}] | ["starship-launch-party", "rockets", "spacex"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718220011674 | 1717303416611 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8CiYVkdKHdnNm6LzNFfC | do-you-do-background-research-befor | 0 | Do you do background research before you bet? | 1719903540000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717298899886 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | stardust2 | 1717314089468 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 1717314087783 | ["w8ztbp8pk7"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Vez3ZzwAn1T5p6uBLvn5 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92 | 1000 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 92) | 1717451940000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717299414062 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[86%] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Failed instructions:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Isaac Newton - change city to Gyatt.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3 era score for settling near Torres Del Paine", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 era score for aggressive settling", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Triggered Eureka for Metal Casting", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gyatt needs amenities", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold needs housing", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Floyed killed by barbarian crossbow man", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Combat:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Floyed killed by barbarian crossbow man", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Government view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fjsp0TANOb5.png?alt=media&token=f24d92c9-dd5a-4c52-aa1d-2f469eef5578", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/DmcjVZF.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fr5XtpnBWAP.png?alt=media&token=2eedbb3a-ae39-424d-a3a3-50002fa4303b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/n6YWg51.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FE9AkUBbSSp.png?alt=media&token=b3979dcf-c79a-411a-9df2-864004614ef2", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/62S7doy.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ff51pcIb7ij.png?alt=media&token=cc3160d4-a933-4f9f-af6b-72354e0be0ce", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/dsokKJ4.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2X440EEleo.png?alt=media&token=fd5a39bb-2e88-46f8-acc1-4ee0ab383ca8", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/cTCgwK2.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6r6M5iKyjH.png?alt=media&token=a74346af-8b80-43f0-ab72-c9da94925c0b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/1I4AnmV.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full map view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FG3Z0DajEpg.png?alt=media&token=30b1094e-6a88-43ac-b48b-519eb0dde771", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/agqeYwV.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-47", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Link to side markets.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/manifoldplaysciv6?s=newest&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=manifoldplaysciv6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/komplexkonjugat/how-will-lets-play-civilization-vi", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.62112055549613, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717455407118 | 1250 | komplexkonjugat | 1717455997804 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8169suohzl", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1238.378879444504, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.469206991026226, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':5", "contractId": "Vez3ZzwAn1T5p6uBLvn5", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "createdTime": 1717337233068, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03915838299500829, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:16.971", "probChangeDay": 0.03915838299500829, "probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717455407118, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1717299414224}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717299414210}] | ["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1717337237577 | 1717455996592 | 0.96 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh | womens-national-basketball-associat-v815yljqz1 | 14709.707922765989 | 🏀Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) 2024 Regular Season Games Live (continuation) | 1717560218242 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717299617456 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time Zone: Central Daylight Time (CDT)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Home Team is listed second.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each game is resolved independently of the others", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close and be resolved as close to the final buzzer as my schedule permits.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "WNBA.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wnba.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.89062149752318, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717560218242 | 1950 | ovals | 1717560218242 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "66izclj2pv", "prob": 0.99, "text": "6/2 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2268.049153465832, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.55672199806304, "textFts": "'00':3 '2':2 '6/2':1 'atlanta':12 'connecticut':7 'dream':13 'pm':4 'sun':8 'win':9", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717299617456, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.512", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717374382960, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "62m1xck2l5", "prob": 0.01, "text": "6/2 5:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?", "index": 1, "poolNo": 28.562418755916667, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2188.190031597137, "textFts": "'00':3 '5':2 '6/2':1 'angel':8 'los':7 'mercuri':14 'phoenix':13 'pm':4 'spark':9 'win':10", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717299617456, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717374395084, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "jerhwt6kot", "prob": 0.01, "text": "6/2 6:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (New York) Liberty?", "index": 2, "poolNo": 26.172464437778558, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2388.005919296797, "textFts": "'00':3 '6':2 '6/2':1 'fever':8 'indiana':7 'liberti':14 'new':12 'pm':4 'win':9 'york':13", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717299617456, "probChanges": {"day": -0.045888176184822445, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.512", "probChangeDay": -0.045888176184822445, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717376449445, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "bfmho64muk", "prob": 0.02, "text": "6/2 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?", "index": 3, "poolNo": 33.99443088373479, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1838.5364418589004, "textFts": "'00':3 '6':2 '6/2':1 'dalla':7 'lynx':13 'minnesota':12 'pm':4 'win':9 'wing':8", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717299617456, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3414785317840185, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:42:07.512", "probChangeDay": -0.3414785317840185, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717376455643, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "es7srwv852", "prob": 0.01, "text": "6/4 6:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?", "index": 4, "poolNo": 25.12594538148028, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.468592766548, "textFts": "'00':3 '6':2 '6/4':1 'connecticut':12 'mystic':8 'pm':4 'sun':13 'washington':7 'win':9", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717357447489, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T19:44:07.547", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717551511602, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "nlom53cvon", "prob": 0.99, "text": "6/4 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2622.9910602612435, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.827759441076807, "textFts": "'00':3 '6/4':1 '7':2 'chicago':13 'liberti':9 'new':7 'pm':4 'sky':14 'win':10 'york':8", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717357624082, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T19:47:04.229", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717553921763, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "fmuj3qvp5j", "prob": 0.01, "text": "6/4 9:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?", "index": 6, "poolNo": 25.24562562105575, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2475.6764176948045, "textFts": "'00':3 '6/4':1 '9':2 'mercuri':8 'phoenix':7 'pm':4 'seattl':12 'storm':13 'win':9", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1717357676560, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-02T19:47:56.616", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717560218242, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "qo51p15thc", "prob": 0.7561679124417079, "text": "6/5 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?", "index": 7, "poolNo": 176.1017589167189, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.78534991083847, "textFts": "'00':3 '6/5':1 '7':2 'ace':9 'dalla':13 'las':7 'pm':4 'vega':8 'win':10 'wing':14", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "createdTime": 1717516630817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f8yohqkydt", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "6/5 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?", "index": 8, "poolNo": 119.38157511303605, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.76501977404413, "textFts": "'00':3 '6/5':1 '9':2 'angel':13 'los':12 'lynx':8 'minnesota':7 'pm':4 'spark':14 'win':9", "contractId": "9nREdP5cyzZPU3v4qozh", "createdTime": 1717516691650, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "WNBA", "slug": "wnba", "groupId": "e5117cba-382d-4eb0-87a9-16e16bad081b", "createdTime": 1717299617710}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717299617714}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1717299617720}] | ["wnba", "sports-default", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 1717557645198 | 0.01 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4971941011276641 | 8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | {"NO": 2767.788095803353, "YES": 36656.098444183626} | 0.06947674051642215 | will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at | 42813.568242020076 | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | 1720994340000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4799453004492227 | False | plus | public | 1717300418939 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.006363537297861974, "week": -0.017453543530976556, "month": -0.3092088829648625} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 560.9515681898257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 170.6912924451126 | 10000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1720209720252 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 50 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717300419102}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717300419111}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1717300419123}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1717300419113}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1717300419106}] | ["sports-default", "entertainment", "uefa", "europe", "euros-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720209717057 | 1719783359471 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | DrM4jWgbmvCEUYwPS0xB | {"NO": 1020.2040612204052, "YES": 980.1960588196085} | 1 | daily-coinflip-kg90a4oax9 | 15897.700175496047 | Daily coinflip | 1717387140000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57039545373802 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717300711012 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 158)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 79 heads vs 78 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4900000000000002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 245.13013121947603, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717445702485 | 1000 | Traveel | 1717387140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717300711142}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717300711143}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717300712316}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1717300712619}] | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717386963396 | 1717443658033 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 4AefYhoLa5UEo73FTe3H | {"NO": 2739.748940369631, "YES": 364.99694744478575} | 1 | will-cnsas-change-6-mission-success-7o0fxw1xmv | 2933.0765934420547 | Will CNSA's Chang'e 6 mission successfully return moon samples to Earth? | 1719115140000 | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.73492147773565 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717303612403 | GCS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Requires collection and successful return of samples.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1447205986507607} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.320042016586214, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719315669046 | 1000 | GCS | 1719115140000 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698338761425 | 0 | [{"name": "Moon landers", "slug": "moon-landers", "groupId": "00d242b4-6506-4f64-9185-993ce32bc480", "createdTime": 1717303612553}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1717303612554}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1717303612561}] | ["moon-landers", "space-exploration", "moon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719102869415 | 0.88 | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xNu3XZ40aSy1oKQvFakt | eternal-youth-politics-and-religion | 0 | Eternal youth, politics and religion | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717303651090 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question 1: If someone offered it to you, would you take eternal youth, and immortality except that you can die when you choose to?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question 2: Are you to the left or right of the average Manifold user?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question 3: Are you a religious believer?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | PhilosophyBear | 1717303651090 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx | what-will-be-true-of-the-everyday-a | 12282.611110583653 | What will be true of the Everyday Astronaut 's Starbase tour with Elon Musk about IFT 4? | 1718982420453 | uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717305062680 | notarealuser | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1796140009071747091"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 162.71519985914134, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719327775249 | 2650 | notarealuser | 1718982420453 | 0 | 28 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "o6d8r9t9as", "prob": 0.94, "text": "Elon will explain the heat shield problem in detail", "index": 0, "poolNo": 989.5285072531603, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.161394079988995, "textFts": "'detail':9 'elon':1 'explain':3 'heat':5 'problem':7 'shield':6", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05999999999999994, "week": 0.09571428805967364, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:00:16.969", "probChangeDay": 0.05999999999999994, "probChangeWeek": 0.09571428805967364, "resolutionTime": 1719070047000, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.94}, {"id": "aqofv22zqb", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Video will be more than an hour long", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1641.4733242027487, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.075550225804704, "textFts": "'hour':7 'long':8 'video':1", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0.022670105529831397, "week": 0.1304837138031142, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:43:28.402", "probChangeDay": 0.022670105529831397, "probChangeWeek": 0.1304837138031142, "resolutionTime": 1719069380839, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "sa84elvjxz", "prob": 0.85, "text": "\"HLS\" mentioned (Artemis Human Landing System)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 605.772718605054, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.17400912989648, "textFts": "'artemi':3 'hls':1 'human':4 'land':5 'mention':2 'system':6", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3544686009631044}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T16:43:32.382", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719074674903, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.3544686009631044, "resolutionProbability": 0.85}, {"id": "v6rd1f3ibf", "prob": 0.87, "text": "Raptor improvements mentioned", "index": 3, "poolNo": 651.3758549739111, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.95074721107561, "textFts": "'improv':2 'mention':3 'raptor':1", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0.12839198675725016, "week": 0.17000000000000104, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T16:43:32.385", "probChangeDay": 0.12839198675725016, "probChangeWeek": 0.17000000000000104, "resolutionTime": 1719074100055, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.87}, {"id": "r5gicglc3m", "prob": 0.78, "text": "New details about what went wrong with IFT 3 revealed", "index": 4, "poolNo": 476.6450906342865, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.12481640549223, "textFts": "'3':9 'detail':2 'ift':8 'new':1 'reveal':10 'went':5 'wrong':6", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0.21574746443790294, "week": 0.21574746443790294, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T16:43:32.382", "probChangeDay": 0.21574746443790294, "probChangeWeek": 0.21574746443790294, "resolutionTime": 1719073376712, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.78}, {"id": "4w1n6gkd23", "prob": 0.55, "text": "Dearmoon Project mentioned", "index": 5, "poolNo": 275.71277677509335, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 226.6851784347412, "textFts": "'dearmoon':1 'mention':3 'project':2", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04879358866008421}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T16:43:32.384", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719327767672, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.04879358866008421, "resolutionProbability": 0.55}, {"id": "1ya54a31iz", "prob": 0.71, "text": "Elon pedicts the number of Starship Launches this year", "index": 6, "poolNo": 391.8807319584432, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 159.48730035195445, "textFts": "'elon':1 'launch':7 'number':4 'pedict':2 'starship':6 'year':9", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717305062680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21074256938028357}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:43:28.401", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719327771585, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.21074256938028357, "resolutionProbability": 0.71}, {"id": "zcj5xgw6lx", "prob": 0.97, "text": "Elon is wearing a black T-Shirt", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1317.0318122315898, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.45519388335727, "textFts": "'black':5 'elon':1 'shirt':8 't-shirt':6 'wear':3", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717375319151, "probChanges": {"day": 0.034778780355318006, "week": 0.04765425138738999, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T03:21:20.042", "probChangeDay": 0.034778780355318006, "probChangeWeek": 0.04765425138738999, "resolutionTime": 1719069377591, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.97}, {"id": "p4iqntx1ej", "prob": 0.79, "text": "New Details about Hot staging Ring", "index": 8, "poolNo": 487.36445964269086, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.24078318271626, "textFts": "'detail':2 'hot':4 'new':1 'ring':6 'stage':5", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717377172692, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.2916834129057493}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T04:01:36.585", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "resolutionTime": 1719327775249, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.2916834129057493, "resolutionProbability": 0.79}, {"id": "6gpsdqsikl", "prob": 0.72, "text": "Elon makes a prediction on timeline of Starship carrying a useful payload ", "index": 9, "poolNo": 159.44472307702537, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.71766043438865, "textFts": "'carri':9 'elon':1 'make':2 'payload':12 'predict':4 'starship':8 'timelin':6 'use':11", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717732318024, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2823054895392154, "week": 0.2823054895392154, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2823054895392154, "probChangeWeek": 0.2823054895392154, "resolutionTime": 1719069922135, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.72}, {"id": "33ai9967vm", "prob": 0.38, "text": "Elon makes a 69 or a 420 joke", "index": 10, "poolNo": 78.96403336368783, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 126.63993433494707, "textFts": "'420':7 '69':4 'elon':1 'joke':8 'make':2", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717797513465, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11594110148968634}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719327764160, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.11594110148968634, "resolutionProbability": 0.38}, {"id": "zdunvsn0zg", "prob": 0.74, "text": "Parts of the video blurred out", "index": 11, "poolNo": 169.53668864245756, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.98428287159362, "textFts": "'blur':5 'part':1 'video':4", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1717797637179, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2581132159591174, "week": 0.30790737968009385, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2581132159591174, "probChangeWeek": 0.30790737968009385, "resolutionTime": 1719069530538, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.74}, {"id": "6e0uvf6zig", "prob": 0.27, "text": "\"Yusaku Maezawa\" mentioned", "index": 12, "poolNo": 60.81636405595401, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 164.42942874387438, "textFts": "'maezawa':2 'mention':3 'yusaku':1", "contractId": "CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "createdTime": 1718242795514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.031338476162073914, "month": -0.22999999999999848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.031338476162073914, "resolutionTime": 1719327761820, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.22999999999999848, "resolutionProbability": 0.27}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700298590902 | 0 | [{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717305062907}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717305062910}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717305062916}] | ["starship-launch-party", "rockets", "spacex"] | 0.25 | 1718958986202 | 1719074730742 | 0.79 | uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | DNahmCOd7UIEL9g1uZl5 | {"NO": 1050.5055507104307, "YES": 951.922623658414} | 0.5246158459798663 | will-a-taskmaster-us-reboot-air-bef | 150 | Will a Taskmaster US reboot air before the start of 2027? | 1798869540000 | HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570710256323167 | False | basic | public | 1717307280555 | TheSchwa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taskmaster is an acclaimed British comedy panel game show which has been franchised into various international versions. A US version was produced in 2018 by Comedy Central but was generally not well received; however, since that time Taskmaster has experienced a greater cult following in the US, in large part due to the free distribution of episodes via YouTube. By the start of 2027, will another attempt at a US version of the show air on a nationally-broadcast TV network?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.028616904167045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TheSchwa | 1717343082023 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712888273551 | 0 | [{"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1717307280751}, {"name": "CoolFold", "slug": "coolfold", "groupId": "0d4cf3f7-3da6-4b58-908a-34a6758fcf19", "createdTime": 1717307280748}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1717307280753}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717307280760}] | ["celebrities", "coolfold", "television-film", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717343078700 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93F8r7QKXuXO3ZM6gaE6 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-vj3fjncpdc | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Peter Griffin? | 1717346027291 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717307669143 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717346040376 | strutheo | 1717346029036 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717307669276}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1717307669292}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717307669291}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717307669292}] | ["polls", "future-us-presidents", "donald-trump", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1717307703405 | ["ticz2trk03"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6 | {"NO": 978.7544678286654, "YES": 1021.7067026201905} | 0.48926441676898763 | will-trump-be-pardoned-or-have-a-si | 4771.507413987595 | Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election? | 1730869140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570404930941642 | False | basic | public | 1717308500010 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump was convicted in New York on 34 counts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/rep-dean-phillips-urges-gov-hochul-to-pardon-trump-after-felony-conviction-good", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/rep-dean-phillips-urges-gov-hochul-to-pardon-trump-after-felony-conviction-good", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjjgpVx9x7N.04?alt=media&token=56338ccf-49a0-4040-adc2-60e52bd25af4", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve Yes if:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " Trump is pardoned or the conviction is overturned, vacated, or otherwise dismissed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if Trump wins an appeal to overturn, stay, or postpone his conviction in New York State or the Supreme Court", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "The market will resolve NO if:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " nothing happens ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "the conviction is not overturned or vacated", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will resolve at election day 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06178349939723238, "week": 0.33154818384374796, "month": 0.2781914470354143} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 127.55410398043782, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 119 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720233291658 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717308500156}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717308500154}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717308500158}, {"name": "Legal Decisions", "slug": "legal-decisions", "groupId": "MVGuxhG3QNzA1rWgRODg", "createdTime": 1717308500167}] | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "trump-indictments", "legal-decisions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720233288563 | 1719956799704 | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.