CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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[{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1717388092830}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1717388092838}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "group...

["2024-summer-olympics", "united-states", "sports-default", "olympics"]

0.25

1719552097849

1719891135235

0.14

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

False

prob-desc

0

rNAXXgJj9cyLdqne0qZo

in-what-week-will-trump-announce-hi

38904.917823362535

In what week will Trump announce his VP/Vice Presidential running mate?

1730707140000

KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717388748222

stefanie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in which week (counted by weeks in the calendar year) will Trump announce his Vice Presidential running mate? resolves when he makes an official announcement on record.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 249.77526702692015, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

1.4952392929723963

2500

shankypanky

1720176948354

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108

47

2

DISABLED

[{"id": "q2be10l7w1", "prob": 0.0023387193319309896, "text": "23 (June 3-9)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.173732241549473, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8605.800306675214, "textFts": "'-9':4 '23':1 '3':3 'june':2", "contractId": "rNAXXgJj9cyLdqne0qZo", "createdTime": 1717388748222,...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/m5z0qlsgvc.jpg

1698976802308

0

[{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717388748478}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717388748479}, {"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": ...

["donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "trump-vp", "magaland"]

0.25

1720176944727

1719528659323

True

prob-desc

0

0.5000000000000001

espBHaGHbj32yVbLqLSW

{"NO": 100.50378152592117, "YES": 9949.874371066198}

0

will-infowars-be-shut-down-within-4

13597.657356367436

Will Infowars be shut down within 48 hours?

1717565239000

qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923073

True

basic

NO

public

1717392439256

Unconditional Probability

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alex Jones claims that infowars could be shutdown within hours. Is this real, or is it just a fundraising gimmick?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.newsweek.com/alex-jones-says-info...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 76.93741456591408, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717599805607

1000

UnconditionalProbability

1717565239000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c

55

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/ki3xtzha5n.jpg

1641884451501

0

[{"name": "Far right", "slug": "far-right", "groupId": "dedc5a60-45b8-4f81-991a-6aa5f0f5a603", "createdTime": 1717392439431}, {"name": "News", "slug": "news", "groupId": "586c2ce6-5e77-441a-b7ba-922fd387e3be", "createdTime": 1717392439430}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqti...

["far-right", "news", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1717562630514

1717592096017

0.01

qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1

0

0.14

h1nZ1VI4ZWhEACYcPNdg

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.14

will-notice-when-people-are-directi

0

Will "Notice When People Are Directionally Correct" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

9.894527931239049

False

basic

public

1717393090445

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LessWrong

1717393090653

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/hleljpnlp4.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717393090653}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

0

SUMaeLkVfiyh1sFd6c0y

why-didnt-trumps-election-odds-chan

0

Why didn't Trump's election odds change much after he was convicted of 34 felonies?

1718081940000

W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1717396009622

Gracious

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718081941061

GG

1718117922154

0

https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c

45

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…G/y1cib683y1.jpg

1668834736982

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717396009804}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717396009810}]

["us-politics", "politics-default"]

0.25

1718117920938

["mca61suz65"]

0

0.5000000000000004

2DQbZSrguW24G7CqsXHV

{"NO": 1276.7426725497069, "YES": 783.243187135713}

0

will-i-submit-my-vision-pro-app-for

3719.596715382513

Will I submit my vision pro app for review before the end of the month (06.2024)?

1719781140000

xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2

cpmm-1

0

9.57962412734886

True

basic

NO

public

1717396971573

Soli ꩜

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am OOO until the 12th, and I want to challenge myself and finish the first version of my Vision Pro app this month. I am unsure if it will get approved, but this won't matter for the market's resolution. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.6199999999999997, "month": -0.7537771433556334}

0

{"creatorFee": 104.36822798703736, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719818730525

1000

Soli

1719781140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f

14

1

0.13333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…a2e-05b64a56d4df

1695418453844

0

[{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1717396971706}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717396971711}, {"name": "👓 Apple Vision Pro", "slug": "apple-vision-pro", "groupId": "gEardgc5T6coQqiEmYG1"...

["apple", "personal-goals", "apple-vision-pro"]

0.25

0.5

1719780397768

1719818689467

0.62

xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2

0

3quUSpBCbTqL7tfrPRlG

what-will-be-the-next-city-to-be-nu-5q893xpi2i

1130.372421265653

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

4859845140000

Cc1rw0NVHVS56Ew3MpW6g2L30pO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717398776253

Werner Zagrebbi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Terrorism counts, tests don't", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 45.24776481227237, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

3250

Khazar_Man_From_Turan

1718650731484

0

https://firebasestorage.…96d-ba93fcbf6c38

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1dy4qrwsc8", "prob": 0.07807038255789797, "text": "New York City", "index": 0, "poolNo": 136.50765697672122, "userId": "Cc1rw0NVHVS56Ew3MpW6g2L30pO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1612.01274863914, "textFts": "'citi':3 'new':1 'york':2", "contractId": "3quUSpBCbTqL7tfrPRlG", "createdTime": 1717398776253, "prob...

0.13333333333333333

1690839930269

0

[{"name": "Nuclear War", "slug": "nuclear-war", "groupId": "9ce3b170-4a5e-4ade-a930-8c51d0d2f411", "createdTime": 1717398776590}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717398776584}]

["nuclear-war", "wars"]

0.25

1718650728159

True

0

XMKvdrQh3B468lFmmosc

which-meme-coin-will-have-the-highe

3383.731936405729

Which meme coin will have the highest market cap at the end of 2024? 🐸 📈

1735660740000

SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717399341682

Quadrifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve with the one on top of this page on 31st December 2024:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/view/memes/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 69.14872988201186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2750

Quadrifold

1719903862337

0

https://firebasestorage.…188-ddf20d36d83e

18

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "6begrv74s4", "prob": 0.6647972675123065, "text": "$DOGE", "index": 0, "poolNo": 612.3412774969418, "userId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 308.75347938787985, "textFts": "'doge':1", "contractId": "XMKvdrQh3B468lFmmosc", "createdTime": 1717399341682, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d/65ajlhx9fs.jpg

1692341243629

0

[{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1717399342008}, {"name": "Meme markets", "slug": "meme-markets", "groupId": "6PR9qZTGIgdWJRIUPF96", "createdTime": 1717399342011}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "creat...

["bitcoin", "meme-markets", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "memes"]

0.25

1719903858952

True

0

TGbFLwRdPQsRIIoLKGiM

is-dr-fauci-telling-the-truth-here

0

Is Dr. Fauci telling the truth here?

JuPdylq620YYzGYlRvqYE7MbbKA3

none

0

1000000

False

public

1717400405474

Kristian Anders$n

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In his written testimony, Dr. Fauci says that he knew nothing of David Morens' actions in assisting Dr. Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance or his conducting NIH business on his personal e-mail account or deleting emails to avoid FOIAs.", "type": "text"}...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

KristianAndersen

1717401334003

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfCER3HQfMxYpT36bgM9yVTL_16IFTq27qzThy_6nS=s96-c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/ig7ktwcgs8.jpg

1710566144564

0

[{"name": "COVID origins", "slug": "covid-origins", "groupId": "KOFIQGdsNjYASSCwLHaQ", "createdTime": 1717400405609}, {"name": "Conspiracy Theories", "slug": "conspiracy-theories", "groupId": "nA6pS69y2sycuFtfYI7o", "createdTime": 1717401334003}]

["covid-origins", "conspiracy-theories"]

0.25

0

0.49999999999999917

yFkMHBfA06ixBBB66WgI

{"NO": 9949.874371066195, "YES": 100.50378152592202}

1

will-the-nikkei-225-close-on-june-3

9007.088836250387

Will the Nikkei 225 close on June 3rd higher than its previous day close?

1717401264660

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923043

True

basic

YES

public

1717401226337

RiskOptimization

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 57.21446518419113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717401264660

1000

RiskOptimization

1717401264660

0

https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/h0g7v5evcl.jpg

1705974765884

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717401226478}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717401226481}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1...

["economics-default", "finance", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1717401254290

0.99

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

0

OYGIi1vGAbQkk6WK26Vw

what-movies-will-be-played-at-summe

9501.930920778163

What movie(s) will be played at Summer Camp movie night?

1717659090491

T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1717402266908

Tony Gao

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9PM movie night hosted by Saul Munn on Tuesday.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 124.97440326808253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717659090491

1350

TonyGao

1717659090491

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6m684ojz5x", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Summer Camp (2024)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.93155726408236, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2843.1203515386615, "textFts": "'2024':3 'camp':2 'summer':1", "contractId": "OYGIi1vGAbQkk6WK26Vw", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "T8NlrA...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/7yplminhwy.jpg

1697428923391

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717402267130}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717402267134}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest-2024", "manifest"]

0.25

1717640500499

1717608634261

0.05

T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1

False

0

0.5000000000000001

3ifOwHSlkhWFaJ5dfxV0

{"NO": 979.5530635017192, "YES": 1020.8737405456995}

1

when-will-we-have-the-first-country

479

Will we have the first country-level e-election by the end of 2040?

1717424721489

Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1

cpmm-1

0

9.570399596054365

True

basic

YES

public

1717404220522

Ihor Kendiukhov

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t1.\tCountry-Level E-Election: An election where the entire voting process, from casting votes to tallying results, is conducted electronically across a whol...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5103279652523094}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.07816516289376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717424721489

1000

IhorKendiukhov

1717424759277

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…v/087v26uq9n.jpg

1680382822335

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717404220664}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717404220686}]

["politics-default", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717419222765

1717424758070

0.49

Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1

0

0.5000000000000001

s19gtaY6mixGA9bhi077

{"NO": 106.62704537553691, "YES": 9378.483634035183}

0

will-ons-jabeur-make-it-to-the-rola

9273.351261225878

Will Ons Jabeur make it to the Roland Garros final?

1717518866444

oHn8IrSQ4Edhe02FtUWTnMjY1xB3

cpmm-1

0

9.853009204827432

True

basic

NO

public

1717405030385

StockDuck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if Ons Jabeur (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Ons Jabeur | Player Stats & More – WTA Official (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wtatennis.com/players/316847/ons-jabeur", "class": "break...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011241518310059546}

0

{"creatorFee": 56.577866828546654, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717518866444

1000

StockDuck

1717518866444

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK-jl3LdwcMiEnvskanW9azrQnaLo4y-O_RkPMG5Qrq=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…k/lczhy7pb1t.jpg

1710812073163

0

[{"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1717405030600}, {"name": "WTA Tennis", "slug": "wta-tennis", "groupId": "da2a483f-ee88-4108-882c-a977a8245086", "createdTime": 1717405030601}, {"name": "French Open (Roland Garros)", "slug": "french-open-roland-garros", "groupId"...

["tennis", "wta-tennis", "french-open-roland-garros"]

0.25

0.5

1717499468080

1717518792624

0.01

oHn8IrSQ4Edhe02FtUWTnMjY1xB3

0

0.5000000000000002

4RWIVY24L4CPpDEs9D9R

{"NO": 847.1696612798853, "YES": 1180.401099927518}

0.41782495461485275

will-doge-coin-have-a-major-bull-ru

214

Will Doge coin have a major bull run relative to Bitcoin by 2026? (DOGE/BTC >= 0.000007)

1767304740000

WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2

cpmm-1

0

9.574608905598392

False

basic

public

1717406039068

Iason Koukas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DOGE/BTC price ratio should at any point reach at least 0.000007, by the end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.06499209064688571}

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{"creatorFee": 6.720219147216777, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1000

IasonKoukas

1719489740969

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c

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0.13333333333333333

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Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week?

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UK General Election 2024 - What will Nigel Farage announce at 4:00 today? (Short term market)

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which-uk-constituencies-will-see-by

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cpmm-multi-1

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Will the S&P 500 open June 3rd higher than its previous day close?

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