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0.5000000000000001 | IWIGTaGRxU1VaGFxx6e2 | {"NO": 2910.989777135288, "YES": 343.5257684017365} | 1 | will-any-of-the-ww2-veterans-attend | 2155 | Will any of the WW2 veterans attending the 80th anniversary of D-Day die during (or traveling to/from) the celebrations? | 1717647142771 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.756233918982606 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717316528589 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5269069140701279} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.76055392465208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717647142771 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1717754340869 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717647133766 | 1717754339984 | 0.89 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | hAeTl0tkCCdib0Pk4WtW | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-duke-energy-duk-announce-inten | 50 | Will Duke Energy ($DUK) announce intent to build an AP1000 at William States Lee III Nuclear Station, Unit 1 in 2024? | 1735707540000 | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1717319228421 | Bernie B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC has a Combined Construction and Operating license from the NRC for two AP1000 Reactor plants at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "William States Lee III Nuclear Station ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "William States Lee III Nuclear Station, Unit 1 | ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col-holder/lee1.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "NRC.gov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://NRC.gov", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". With Vogtle units 3 and 4 online there has been renewed interest in building more of this design. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Remarks as Delivered by Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm on Startup of Vogtle Unit 4 and Growth of U.S. Nuclear Industry | Department of Energy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.energy.gov/articles/remarks-delivered-secretary-jennifer-m-granholm-startup-vogtle-unit-4-and-growth-us", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jigar Shah on X: \"For future AP1000s, utilities are saying they value having a complete constructed design and the ability to “be third” (instead of having to be first with a new design) The #InflationReductionAct includes multiple incentives for the #nuclear sector. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1796303444556321256", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "https://t.co/xXkloD65fl", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://t.co/xXkloD65fl", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\" / X", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1796303444556321256", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is asking if Duke will officially announce its intention to begin construction of one or both of these AP1000 units in the calendar year 2024. I will resolve this based on official company or government announcements.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BernieB | 1717924735033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704591987823 | 0 | [{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1717319228567}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717319228573}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1717319228576}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1717319228606}] | ["energy", "stocks", "nuclear", "climate"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717924731764 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sy7ocw0IwgT84nyrUUZd | what-will-be-true-about-brighter-sh | 1426.1013449083746 | What will be true about Brighter Shores, Andrew Gower's new MMORPG? | 1767308340000 | ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717327925425 | Andri | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brighter Shores is an upcoming MMORPG by Andrew Gower, the creator of RuneScape.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Website: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.brightershores.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.brightershores.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trailer: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": 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"https://www.reddit.com/r/brightershores/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Steam page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2791440", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2791440", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add more answers.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.96047189568769, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | andri | 1717895101239 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | 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"prob": 0.26283990747026037, "text": "After 1 month of release, Steam will list its overall reviews as \"Overwhelmingly Positive\" (at least 95% positive)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 149.28107489689899, "userId": "ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 418.67329829427916, "textFts": "'1':2 '95':17 'least':16 'list':8 'month':3 'overal':10 'overwhelm':13 'posit':14,18 'releas':5 'review':11 'steam':6", "contractId": "sy7ocw0IwgT84nyrUUZd", "createdTime": 1717327925425, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.23716009252973963, "month": -0.23716009252973963}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:00:59.042", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.23716009252973963, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.23716009252973963}, {"id": "di0kqls1wu", "prob": 0.5470907572765256, "text": "There will be PvP combat at launch", "index": 4, "poolNo": 274.76670501008084, "userId": "ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 227.46569675429538, 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0.5 | xDgZ9GpBj4IeliajNSFr | {"NO": 304.58775179456785, "YES": 3283.126107692145} | 0.08489744827034357 | will-we-be-able-to-buy-a-25k-autono | 2707.138783370671 | Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy? | 1875131940000 | ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.198394668833549 | False | basic | public | 1717332163371 | Simone Romeo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves true if in June 2029, it will be possible in Italy to buy an electric car that that costs less than 25000€ and that doesn't require driving license to drive, because it's autonomous.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.015697073164526815} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.38776701281299, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimoneRomeo | 1719203441960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702703079293 | 0 | [{"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1717332163515}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717332163514}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1717332163520}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime": 1717332163519}] | ["automotive", "ai", "selfdriving-vehicles", "cars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719203438906 | 1717427732833 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | rJzdlh3kn4o2i8HywXld | {"NO": 355.7753660075624, "YES": 2810.7623392304895} | 0 | will-there-be-silksong-news-this-mo | 3004.8928083813466 | Will there be Silksong news this month? | 1719798185120 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.743741891788684 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717333676183 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/85K8fcQTXQc?si=xgHLD5BPUaHQKAWK", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/85K8fcQTXQc?si=xgHLD5BPUaHQKAWK", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Daily Silksong News has at least one YES news day this month, June 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.11595551057829354, "month": -0.43259423052024176} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.12756181013677, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719798185120 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1719868041762 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | [{"name": "Hollow Knight", "slug": "hollow-knight", "groupId": "zay01nrwKaH5ZhWBuoXe", "createdTime": 1717333676327}, {"name": "Silksong", "slug": "silksong", "groupId": "jEa492Msts89rFyWDHy0", "createdTime": 1717333676326}] | ["hollow-knight", "silksong"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719690979451 | 1719868040677 | 0.11 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4787664927236321 | 6DYLeeC8cKaIbWxSJUpR | {"NO": 9953.881936545022, "YES": 10048.347768930425} | 0.4764098414564859 | will-wonderful-precure-tv-feature-a | 50 | Will Wonderful Precure (TV) feature a character from a previous season? | 1735649940000 | Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7314298668197594 | False | plus | public | 1717341082150 | Lambda Fairy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is a long-running animated series in the magical girl genre. Its heroes transform into powerful alter egos that fight monsters and save the day. The current season is called ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wonderful Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderful!_Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and will run until the end of this year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the most part, each season has its own universe, with its own plot and characters. But crossover events occasionally happen – in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HUGtto Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (2018), episodes 21 and 22 featured Nagisa and Honoka from the original ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Futari wa", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " .", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wonderful", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " have such a crossover episode as well? We'll only count the main TV series, not the movies. We also won't count the \"baton pass\" farewell scene where the next season's protagonists are introduced.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 9.992007221626409e-16, "week": 9.992007221626409e-16, "month": 9.992007221626409e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | tfae | 1717341244032 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690369385049 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717341082293}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1717341082295}, {"name": "Pretty Cure", "slug": "pretty-cure", "groupId": "c6d83627-db4e-4734-9a46-9efb5e937a49", "createdTime": 1717341082297}] | ["entertainment", "anime", "pretty-cure"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717341240884 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5927193565961043 | EcSNFIk5sbA17Drl1U0S | {"NO": 18421.742767308715, "YES": 16799.529826164893} | 0.6147680156854425 | do-i-have-highfunctioning-autism | 975 | Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025? | 1807772340000 | iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8359574801442753 | False | plus | public | 1717351985532 | Percy Otebay | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am going to get professional diagnosis in couple months. The resolution will be, if they diagnose me with any kind of autism. High functioning is just the one i think i have, but it will be resolved with any autism diagnosis. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I took couple professional online tests for diagnosing autism.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are results of the tests:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Test #1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RAADS–R ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://embrace-autism.com/raads-r/#test", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://embrace-autism.com/raads-r/#test", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total:119", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Language subtotal:13", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": 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", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves based on the total sum added to the leaderboard at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for the one month of market duration. 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0.5000000000000001 | BCIGoiQT29Ov4S1EvMEl | {"NO": 1027.8709978371576, "YES": 972.8847317457119} | 0.5137413741413875 | will-south-africa-have-another-pres | 49 | Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029? | 1861948740000 | u6fhON8bIDUsC11YmOcXx3kxOat2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570450656411438 | False | basic | public | 1717355480872 | wylderai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South Africa had a presidential election on 29 May 2024. No party won a majority so the country must be governed by a coalition. The next scheduled election is in 2029, but there are a couple of ways one could happen earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no coalition forms in time, there will be another election in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the coalition government dissolves later, there might be an early election.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South Africa does have \"municipal\" elections, the next of which is in 2026. These won't count. I will only count elections where", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the presidency is at stake", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "there is a public vote (so for example the parliament choosing a new president without a full election first doesn't count)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00702231066742931} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6439864594387883, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | wylderai | 1720152276035 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhcB8djJV_UMmMGE6QUmZ5Ai6LdjNBpwUdFgGpQUA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516076856 | 0 | [{"name": "South Africa", "slug": "south-africa", "groupId": "H87QoUwQ4mCqJXUzUeeG", "createdTime": 1717355481004}, {"name": "Africa", "slug": "africa", "groupId": "dFsZaGwyohGDVkJi1C3E", "createdTime": 1717355481006}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1717355481011}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1717355481010}] | ["south-africa", "africa", "elections-world", "elections"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717931493272 | 1720152274925 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | TN9QO6eccTukbcn7gyOS | {"NO": 459.92752275206254, "YES": 2174.2556175292866} | 0.17459967597505013 | will-there-be-a-major-decentralized | 3824.76491941157 | Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? | 1930517940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.666453304022347 | False | basic | public | 1717355849448 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor. This platform must meet the following criteria:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decentralized Nature", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "User Base", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of Wikipedia's active monthly users.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Content Quality and Quantity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The platform should host a significant amount of content, with both the quality and breadth of articles comparable to Wikipedia.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recognition", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or information sectors as a major competitor to Wikipedia.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TN9QO6eccTukbcn7gyOS", "label": "/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VaphQFrea37bO129Q9ye", "label": "/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized-jdlirumk7b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For reference, Wikipedia's active monthly user statistics can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia Active Users", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Statistics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution will be based on a combination of user statistics, content analysis, and expert opinions from reputable sources. If these criteria are not met by January 1st, 2031, this question will resolve as NO. If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong evidence, or if there is a significant debate that a competitor meets this threshold, then this question resolves as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01758241650292905, "month": -0.07075419619646306} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.81564692446094, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912447071 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "createdTime": 1717355849610}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717355849613}, {"name": "Decentralization", "slug": "decentralization", "groupId": "c5005f35-2998-4452-8dc9-bbf8f4645211", "createdTime": 1717355982475}, {"name": "Blockchain", "slug": "blockchain", "groupId": "51ecd7db-6bdf-4ad4-bab9-3b69b978cc88", "createdTime": 1717355985487}, {"name": "Collaborative Editing", "slug": "collaborative-editing", "groupId": "f4c7a88f-825e-4431-965c-80296a434148", "createdTime": 1717355999527}] | ["wikipedia", "internet", "decentralization", "blockchain", "collaborative-editing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912444016 | 1717796040590 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | VaphQFrea37bO129Q9ye | {"NO": 542.5579410643559, "YES": 1843.1211200010498} | 0.2274228541126813 | will-there-be-a-major-decentralized-jdlirumk7b | 2544.760701108012 | Will there be a major decentralized GitHub competitor before 2031? | 1930517940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629333556822827 | False | basic | public | 1717356145721 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to GitHub has been widely recognized as a major competitor. This platform must meet the following criteria:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decentralized Nature", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "User Base", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of GitHub's active monthly users.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Repository and Project Hosting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The platform should host a significant number of repositories and projects, with both the quality and breadth of projects comparable to GitHub.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recognition", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or software development sectors as a major competitor to GitHub.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TN9QO6eccTukbcn7gyOS", "label": "/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VaphQFrea37bO129Q9ye", "label": "/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized-jdlirumk7b"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For reference, GitHub's active monthly user statistics can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "GitHub Active Users", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://octoverse.github.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution will be based on a combination of user statistics, content analysis, and expert opinions from reputable sources. If these criteria are not met by January 1st, 2031, this question will resolve as NO. If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong evidence, or if there is a significant debate that a competitor meets this threshold, then this question resolves as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.018365643077014243, "month": -0.12794510711441112} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 78.88168070369198, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912438175 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717356145870}, {"name": "Blockchain", "slug": "blockchain", "groupId": "51ecd7db-6bdf-4ad4-bab9-3b69b978cc88", "createdTime": 1717356145872}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1717356145873}, {"name": "Decentralization", "slug": "decentralization", "groupId": "c5005f35-2998-4452-8dc9-bbf8f4645211", "createdTime": 1717356145874}, {"name": "Open Source", "slug": "open-source", "groupId": "f8f2077f-2acf-42df-aacf-40671528224f", "createdTime": 1717356145875}] | ["programming", "blockchain", "github", "decentralization", "open-source"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912434966 | 1717925576063 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | HYgyaBBnnu0jaf2x3zWC | {"NO": 2798.3106200179845, "YES": 357.3584693730609} | 0.886756672119249 | will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-200 | 3393.1899192217256 | Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031? | 1930517940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.742193258845182 | False | basic | public | 1717356596195 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Semaglutide drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2031. 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0.5000000000000002 | S8lAvlwDEPaGWOkcNpjs | {"NO": 611.6933635447388, "YES": 1634.8060312523917} | 0.27228734846820557 | will-trump-actually-nominate-a-libe | 1833 | Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected? | 1730879940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60824102025995 | False | basic | public | 1717357345534 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump tried to win over the crowd by pledging to include a Libertarian in his Cabinet, but many in the crowd hissed in disbelief.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/trump-met-with-repeated-boos-and-jeers-during-libertarian-convention-speech", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/trump-met-with-repeated-boos-and-jeers-during-libertarian-convention-speech", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates a registered Libertarian to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). Resolves NO if he leaves office without doing so. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05410806008335922} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.22396197452684, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1718483791041 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | [{"name": "Libertarianism", "slug": "libertarianism", "groupId": "cd97f0ef-ad80-40e5-ac38-70ace9a9c19a", "createdTime": 1717357345665}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1717357345664}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717357345670}] | ["libertarianism", "magaland", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718483787984 | 1717947000121 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t | how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz | 2642.21610268583 | How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? | 1814507940000 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.414888775552612 | False | plus | public | 1717358654065 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1795734145223545338"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ctBuBohLurOfIVoUS25l", "label": "/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.85792123824942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 17500 | EvanDaniel | 1718786332191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "lryxq9ro7u", "prob": 0.6668158178991754, "text": ">= 100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2890.6989279718746, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1444.3795905298523, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.16681581789917543}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:33.788", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.16681581789917543}, {"id": "fwggffj42z", "prob": 0.557088113939645, "text": ">= 200", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2636.5402316058003, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2096.176488843639, "textFts": "'200':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05708811393964497}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:33.791", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.05708811393964497}, {"id": "3q9uuz12gt", "prob": 0.529466176539355, "text": ">= 300", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2594.5297660765436, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2305.7450409652497, "textFts": "'300':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.029466176539355016}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:33.789", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.029466176539355016}, {"id": "31vmplsppa", "prob": 0.48820260299596285, "text": ">= 500", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2430.8458691930505, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2548.328461864648, "textFts": "'500':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -0.011797397004037147}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:25:03.918", "probChangeDay": -2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": -2.220446049250313e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.011797397004037147}, {"id": "wyi1pzmaxi", "prob": 0.4789567183178755, "text": ">= 800", "index": 4, "poolNo": 2342.504603084336, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2548.343595707721, "textFts": "'800':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030424128274221196}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:22:36.427", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.030424128274221196}, {"id": "8p57a7za7c", "prob": 0.2999999999999999, "text": ">= 1300", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1127.9491319627086, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2631.881307912988, "textFts": "'1300':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.20000000000000012}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:22:36.428", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.20000000000000012}, {"id": "kzj1fhgrci", "prob": 0.18368893333239622, "text": ">= 2100", "index": 6, "poolNo": 629.9159873680343, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2799.3378927672666, "textFts": "'2100':1", "contractId": "OYJqTdEH1i4DKvbrEk6t", "createdTime": 1717358654065, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.3163110666676038}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:22:36.416", "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -5.551115123125783e-17, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.3163110666676038}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | [{"name": "Climate change", "slug": "climate-change", "groupId": "f090cc48-76a0-43b7-8595-2a3d262e9f68", "createdTime": 1717358654303}] | ["climate-change"] | 0.25 | 1718786329147 | 1717359942697 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000008 | 226F7kyrltPOoycwVE33 | {"NO": 1463.2286294988053, "YES": 683.4201982109439} | 0.6816339079829463 | will-a-medalwinning-athlete-hold-up | 4221.567721245378 | Will a medal-winning athlete hold up a Palestine flag on the podium during the 2024 Olympics? | 1723417140000 | PFkbNPu9FIRTwCe2xALSsfn4mMI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.409689101136475 | False | basic | public | 1717362771084 | Rowan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'Yes' if a medal-winning athlete, during the official medal ceremony at the 2024 Olympics, visibly holds up a Palestine flag in celebration or solidarity. This includes instances where the flag is displayed prominently and recognizably, such as being waved, draped over the athlete's shoulders, or held in their hand. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The flag must be identifiable as representing Palestine, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "regardless of its size or specific design", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". Any other use of the Palestine flag outside of the official medal ceremony, such as during competitions or warm-up sessions, does not count towards the resolution of this market. Additionally, if the athlete holds up multiple flags, the presence of the Palestine flag must be distinct and intentional to resolve this market as 'Yes'.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.06090446126914506} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 114.90886337330207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Rowan | 1718039698351 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNi1UQwvxtZOYc72P-AlKjJZWUQMrEp9d2hq_TEna-=s96-c | 70 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694350207166 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1717362771221}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1717362771223}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717362771258}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717362771265}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1717362771291}] | ["2024-summer-olympics", "palestine", "politics-default", "wars", "athletics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718039695227 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hr3A7CX07DiEGXcdd5Ra | what-will-happen-this-week-03060906 | 35151.62575351377 | What will happen this Week? (03.06-09.06.2024) [You can add answers] | 1717970401000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717364810846 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Important for resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timezone: CEST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price chart used for Bitcoin/USD: 1min Candle Coinbase Chart (for other Cryptos i also use Coinbase if the coin/token isnt listed on coinbase i look for other charts)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All questions must be answered otherwise they will be resolved as no. 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"resolutionTime": 1717880442121, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "rlzaf0nwnn", "prob": 0.01, "text": "6+ goals scored in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals ", "index": 12, "poolNo": 10.050378152592103, "userId": "Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 994.9874371066174, "textFts": "'1':6 '6':1 'cup':10 'final':11 'game':5 'goal':2 'score':3 'stanley':9", "contractId": "hr3A7CX07DiEGXcdd5Ra", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717567045950, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.5, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717955389334, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1717364811064}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1717364811067}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1717364811066}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1717364811070}, {"name": "What Will Happen Markets", "slug": "what-will-happen-markets", "groupId": "17ef899d-07f3-40e9-b09c-bac98f5690b8", "createdTime": 1717364811080}] | ["football", "tennis", "crypto-speculation", "basketball", "what-will-happen-markets"] | 0.25 | 1717963296344 | 1717868447502 | 0.99 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | False | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | G31CKkWMIG193O70jiOJ | {"NO": 1105.1999509672573, "YES": 904.813648539174} | 0 | will-we-see-lucci-or-kizaru-in-chap | 499 | Will we see Lucci or Kizaru in chapter 1117? | 1718056740000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571887259760949 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717366803352 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "⚠️Shadowy silhouette does not count. Cover does not count. Flashback does count. Low-detailed from afar does count. Wanted poster does count. Chibi head does count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔒Questions will close the Monday before the spoilers come out, with resolving happening throughout the week as soon as the answer is confirmed", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.45492232024379387} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.654947471810516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718269672504 | 1000 | FYNOP | 1718056740000 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707774054436 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717366803517}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1717366803523}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717366803522}] | ["one-piece-stocks", "one-piece-theories", "manga"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718056730830 | 0.55 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 8IvNyLyXPEDPnCfq2ynk | {"NO": 631.3754417858095, "YES": 1583.8436749639122} | 0 | will-yamato-be-alone-on-chapter-111-er8yfiqw2r | 1283 | Will Yamato be alone on chapter 1117's cover story? | 1718056740000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.603469962840661 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717366931094 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "⚠️Yamato must be present and alone. Silhouettes from afar will resolve the question in NO. Animals don't count. Zoan users in animal form do count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔒Question will close the Monday before the spoilers come out, with resolving happening throughout the week as soon as the answer is confirmed", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.32717257160979246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.80506183023783, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718269457909 | 1000 | FYNOP | 1718056740000 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707774054436 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717366931238}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718030026597 | 0.29 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cYdnL6r7VixfXaxweu58 | {"NO": 1692.3203747282162, "YES": 590.9046625764347} | 0.7411973620988327 | if-another-carrington-event-occurre-rcv868itnl | 868.1988464766753 | If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year? | 4872898740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.498932782447369 | False | basic | public | 1717374683042 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the sake of the question, \"another Carrington Event\" is defined as a storm with a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dst", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_storm_time_index", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs. The word \"tomorrow\" should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "KcytkdcYuYKtA5Bbz4jY", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-taf44snmty"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.013822009100439181} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.835641229476945, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | singer | 1718246399955 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1717374683243}, {"name": "Existential Risk", "slug": "existential-risk", "groupId": "iYAqK70zopnAZFdQtjS5", "createdTime": 1717374683244}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717374683240}] | ["natural-disasters", "existential-risk", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718246396793 | 1717465213390 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KcytkdcYuYKtA5Bbz4jY | if-another-carrington-event-occurre-taf44snmty | 0 | If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would you still be alive in a year? | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717374833183 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: This is not asking if you \"want to be alive\" in a year, but if you expect that you will be.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the sake of the question, \"another Carrington Event\" is defined as a storm with a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dst", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_storm_time_index", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cYdnL6r7VixfXaxweu58", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-rcv868itnl"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1717466341140 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717374833362}, {"name": "Existential Risk", "slug": "existential-risk", "groupId": "iYAqK70zopnAZFdQtjS5", "createdTime": 1717374833372}, {"name": "Life & Death", "slug": "life-death", "groupId": "2de76c6e-155b-4bd1-b477-1b2a3dec0634", "createdTime": 1717374833376}] | ["technology-default", "existential-risk", "life-death"] | 0.25 | 1717439249187 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | FfBhndVL4L1PzMikm7jz | {"NO": 6354.0321856690825, "YES": 157.3803800137198} | 1 | politico-says-that-biden-will-issue | 13777.817793079541 | Politico says that Biden will issue an executive order on immigration by Tuesday June 4. Will Biden do so? | 1717519759789 | KpyXzqf41EdLMz0z6ZPDsOpxNMl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.876530910232304 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717376756498 | Donut Throw | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Title: Biden executive action could come as early as Tuesday. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/biden-executive-action-border-tuesday-00161176", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/biden-executive-action-border-tuesday-00161176", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the order is issued on Wednesday morning it does not count for this market. Order must be issued by Tuesday. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.024169929093905584} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 176.78355545478965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717519759789 | 1000 | DonutThrow | 1717519759789 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtftlJwSoQcLXCqETuSG5WUozJkiUdC3sd5GJnldXd1N=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690921740674 | 0 | [{"name": "US immigration", "slug": "us-immigration", "groupId": "ECIAhWIH91B1Q2PUC9N9", "createdTime": 1717376756674}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717376756687}] | ["us-immigration", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717518903246 | 1717518982374 | 0.98 | KpyXzqf41EdLMz0z6ZPDsOpxNMl2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT | during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see | 19864.707025187523 | During the days in June when I see EZ, which color of suit jacket will EZ wear the most frequently? | 1719799629963 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717378253526 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trench coat = suit jacket. EZ is my classmate and \"acquaintance\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve as YES for the correct option and NO for the others. Ties will resolve to YES to both options", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EZ has, for some reason, worn a suit every single day of school for the past 3 years or so. To the best of my memory, his suit jacket's color has included black, blue and tan. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every day I see EZ, I will bet 1 mana on whatever color he is wearing that day. If EZ, by some miracle, does not wear a suit or trench coat for the majority of the days where I see him in June, the question will resolve as \"Other\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 324.04726179896187, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719799629963 | 1000 | stardust2 | 1719799629963 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 16 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pqm20d1z9n", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Black", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1885.745075548648, "userId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.1433982304394, "textFts": "'black':1", "contractId": "xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "createdTime": 1717378253527, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03272781420945947, "week": 0.2127278142094602, "month": 0.4827278142094594}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:12.657", "probChangeDay": 0.03272781420945947, "probChangeWeek": 0.2127278142094602, "resolutionTime": 1719799614879, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4827278142094594, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "oxicc5pbxx", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Blue", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3519.51756418304, "userId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.758115667908896, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "createdTime": 1717378253527, "probChanges": {"day": 0.003981216366476081, "week": 0.18497971962743442, "month": 0.4949797196274345}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:21:21.57", "probChangeDay": 0.003981216366476081, "probChangeWeek": 0.18497971962743442, "resolutionTime": 1719799611721, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4949797196274345, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "1gkzvdyu1g", "prob": 0.11, "text": "Tan", "index": 2, "poolNo": 85.86545642063852, "userId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 727.8829299389546, "textFts": "'tan':1", "contractId": "xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "createdTime": 1717378253527, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3944815647441483}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T10:21:40.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719799629963, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.3944815647441483, "resolutionProbability": 0.11}, {"id": "gp0rov0l8l", "prob": 0.22, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 132.23543872114195, "userId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 472.64183190559, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2", "createdTime": 1717378253527, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2813846789380452}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T16:42:04.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719799622545, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.2813846789380452, "resolutionProbability": 0.22}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | [{"name": "High School", "slug": "high-school", "groupId": "6768fd11-233b-4ae9-904f-f04eea47f917", "createdTime": 1717378253757}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717378253767}, {"name": "Fashion", "slug": "fashion", "groupId": "rN2eHyggdZPkn7dKL9LP", "createdTime": 1717378253771}] | ["high-school", "culture-default", "fashion"] | 0.25 | 1719734416491 | 1719001097025 | 0.11 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1400000000000001 | Bzz31p2Yjb5pp9x7Jl6i | {"NO": 947.9335771325798, "YES": 1388.8329153337788} | 0.10000000000000013 | will-how-it-all-went-down-the-puzzl | 2081.303443999124 | Will "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.935325556554865 | False | basic | public | 1717378350871 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that took us way, way Less Online", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FtsyWwJLdTapN3c6h/how-it-all-went-down-the-puzzle-hunt-that-took-us-way-way", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08748653050262274} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.036093363971546, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719634795765 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 12 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717378351027}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719634792566 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Tr01zYGxOG4QhUjjxhf | will-people-indefinitely-keep-makin | 0 | Will people indefinitely keep making polls on Manifold about when we will get "AGI" without defining it? | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717378497888 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's arguably a legitimate sense of AGI in which Chat GPT 3.5 is an \"AGI\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There might well be a sense of AGI in which humans aren't AGI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does AGI require robotics? Does AGI require real-time agency? Does AGI require Vision? Hearing? Touch? Smell? Taste? Does AGI require sentience? Does this unit have a soul? Why are people giving definitions of AGI on which Helen Keller wasn't an AGI?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People are propounding definitions of AGI which the smartest humans alive couldn't meet because they require, e.g., graduate student-level skills in every single domain. People are propounding definitions of AGI on which it already exists- e.g. some level of generalised problem solving ability. Falling back on the public consensus at least adds ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "specificity, but the public can and will engage in goalpost shifting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There will not be a magic lightbulb that goes on when \"AGI\" is achieved. It is not a substantial and exact difference. To the extent it ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "used ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "to have a precise definition- generalised capabilities rather than narrow capabilities- it arguably exists now. Please, give a definition if you're going to make a market about AGI. To be clear, I have no problem with vibes based resolution, and I have no problem with \"this market resolves according to my opinion\". What I have a problem with is the assumption that we all have some common understanding of a concrete and specific thing called \"AGI\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | PhilosophyBear | 1717386564917 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1717386563996 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999806 | fRXEgK3FINKUgbY4CxSI | {"NO": 9949.874371066193, "YES": 100.50378152592157} | 1 | will-udeepfuckingvalue-aka-roaring | 9599.973684877303 | Will u/DeepFuckingValue (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) post to Reddit a second time in June? | 1717451256506 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84972144192303 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717381906474 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He just ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "posted", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d6r5vp/gme_yolo_update_june_2_2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for the first time in ~3 years, revealing an enormous stake in GME. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CNBC coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/gamestop-jumps-as-roaring-kitty-trader-posts-giant-116-million-stock-position.html?taid=665d267ccd20bb000143c0f2&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter%7Cmain", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GameStop shares surge as ‘Roaring Kitty’ trader posts account showing $116 million position", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meme stock GameStop is rallying again on speculation Keith Gill, the man who inspired 2021′s epic short squeeze, could currently have a huge position in the video game retailer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gill, who goes by DeepF------Value on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube and X, reappeared Sunday night, posting a screenshot of what could be his portfolio holding a significant amount of GameStop common shares and call options.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if u/DeepFuckingValue posts a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "second", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " time to Reddit during the month of June. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Comments don't count—it needs to be a post. 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0.3387080825382935 | IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz | {"NO": 1341.0712768975168, "YES": 3727.853039863734} | 0.15558912583719953 | will-udeepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitt | 23110.126458179297 | Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024? | 1735660740000 | fBM6jVmA0mVRdQAwkCmoX74l6nn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.215662119680708 | False | basic | public | 1717386307093 | sama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Roaring Kitty’s recent ‘GME YOLO Update’ Reddit post showed his account with a total value of $210 million. Will he post a screenshot of his account with over $1 billion in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: Showing account balance during livestream DOES NOT count. Must be a screenshot posted by him (as per usual).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.049231339583603095, "month": 0.04587033052592854} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 447.83070223534224, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | sama | 1719801289953 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fidep%2FXujAyTo58a.043?alt=media&token=faacc09a-d6a1-4615-be1c-cc5c7880a36f | 87 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698577286824 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717386307307}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717386307315}] | ["stocks", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719801286894 | 1717755532430 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | QgCzaxnuQCVTt7xmCt06 | {"NO": 1670.6691217824273, "YES": 598.5625681122935} | 0.7362267719167702 | will-the-cvs-on-telegraph-avenue-st | 760.7116056676432 | Will the CVS across from Lighthaven stay open for another year? | 1749538740000 | iEMoe9DJFGhJ7in8HvnTEdO14Fi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611701208305112 | False | basic | public | 1717386837754 | Kurt Brown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The CVS and the Walgreens on Shattuck both closed down within the last year or so. This is part of a broader trend of convenience store chains reducing their presence in the Bay Area.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the CVS at 2655 Telegraph Ave (pictured) in Berkeley stay open for another year? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if I am satisfied that it is still basically open for business. Resolves no if it is fully shuttered. Resolves as ambiguous if I find it ambiguous. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is across the street from Lighthaven.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FPxZvZC6mHH.jpg?alt=media&token=37d6485d-f337-4cd2-8496-3a3ffab41743", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.22478439714548604} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.64221092303724, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Kurt | 1718618394651 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyw7BU_7h_d_y5ajK-Fz8iKp_kfsKQjtsLs9P8=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644981839285 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717386837882}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717386837889}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717639948912}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717639953403}] | ["culture-default", "economics-default", "manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718618391524 | 1717963465867 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | opa5EGlIYxW0HmGerGHF | {"NO": 1007.5129974327804, "YES": 992.5430267878202} | 0 | will-i-do-4h-or-less-of-work-on-gra-b9fpmoa3x3 | 123.52811201774942 | Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | 1717966740000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570342036944453 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717406599560 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan for only 4 hours this week because my full time summer job.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also if anyone knows Qt and knows how to make notifications similar to how they are in vscode but in the diagramscene default example that would be very helpful.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4989239898913129} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.189007762868319, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717968527106 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1717966740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | [{"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz", "createdTime": 1717406600097}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717406600225}] | ["commitment-devices", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717965494240 | 1717968522841 | 0.5 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | m6qtZq413twMHGBhBupJ | {"NO": 740.1648250268388, "YES": 1351.0504230780464} | 0.35394004787292765 | will-iran-become-a-democracy-by-the | 835 | Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040? | 2240693940000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.526669646774586 | False | basic | public | 1717407281122 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Democracy Definition:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Verification of Democratic Status:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Free and Fair Elections:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Civil Liberties:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Political Pluralism:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Rule of Law:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The government must demonstrate adherence to the rule of law, with an independent judiciary and measures to prevent corruption and abuses of power.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Sources for Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "International Organizations:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Reports and statements from the United Nations, European Union, and other reputable international bodies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Human Rights Organizations:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Assessments and reports from organizations such as Freedom House, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Election Observers:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Findings from election observation missions conducted by credible NGOs like the Carter Center or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Reputable News Outlets:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coverage and analysis from recognized news organizations like BBC, Reuters, The New York Times, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By including these detailed criteria, the question ensures that the evaluation of whether Iran becomes a democracy by the end of 2040 is specific, measurable, and unambiguous. Let me know if further adjustments are needed.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.01188000579670856, "month": 0.02983865674458891} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.86991811395427, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719771522094 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1717407281331}, {"name": "Democracy", "slug": "democracy", "groupId": "3bc21e70-ee0c-4edb-8a76-88bd3e8322fc", "createdTime": 1717407281330}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1717407281331}] | ["iran", "democracy", "middle-east"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719771519037 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk | {"NO": 639.5553798407341, "YES": 1563.5862530763654} | 0.2902924488762542 | will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor | 7623.869104483786 | Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim? | 2082841140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.214544951986221 | False | basic | public | 1717408553640 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claim of Probability:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Types of Qualifying Statements:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Statements such as \"certain”, \"pretty sure”, \"almost sure”, “rather yes than no”, or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 50% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification of Ambiguity:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (the same question but 90% instead of 50%): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.023743620931975462} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 182.6672265321225, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718850104675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 66 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717408553804}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717408553808}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717408553807}] | ["technology-default", "openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718850101583 | 1717447412248 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5355624563322433 | vZxTfEoex4EAgj6fsWRr | {"NO": 108497.17162418312, "YES": 1263.7641390736276} | 1 | will-this-market-have-more-than-50 | 101570.00126285406 | Will this market have more than 50 traders by July 1, 2024? | 1717482239165 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.756446342705934 | True | plus | YES | public | 1717409283411 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 504.2900591902586, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717482239165 | 10000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1717482844643 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 52 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1717409283628}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1717409283632}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1717409283638}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717482844643}] | ["predictions-on-predictions", "metamarkets", "metaforecasting", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1717479218012 | 1717476009997 | 0.99 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hXB2h6uOBydu0UF7IJLI | uk-general-election-2024-what-will | 21526.813928722713 | UK General Election 2024 - What will Nigel Farage announce at 4:00 today? (Short term market) | 1717428942833 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | gkje8vfgz3 | public | 1717412459363 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nigel Farage has said that he is making an announcement at 4:00:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1797559930393604280"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is speculation that he will be doing a u-turn on his previous declaration that he will not be running as a candidate in this general election. There is also speculation that he will be defecting from Reform UK to the Conservative Party in an attempt to take over as Tory leader after the next election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will he be announcing? Predict now!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think that the seven options I've picked are mostly mutually exclusive. But if some combination of them is true, I will resolve the market equally to those options - 50/50 if there are two, 33/33/33 if there are three, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the announcement comes today but it comes later than 4:00, that will still count for this market. If the announcement does not come today, I will resolve to the \"none of the above\" option", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I hope that the outcome will be very clear, but be warned that there may be a subjective element to this market. I will not bet on this market myself!", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on Nigel Farage's announcement rather than on whether his announcement turns out to be true. So if he announces that he is running as a Tory candidate and Rishi Sunak comes out to deny this, the market will still resolve to the Tory candidate option!", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 170.21020622163624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717428942833 | 2000 | SimonGrayson | 1717429391705 | 0 | 20 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "mrchlvw5dx", "prob": 0.0012761274686037014, "text": "He will be running for Parliament as a Conservative", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.51062042960757, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10573.692274270612, "textFts": "'conserv':9 'parliament':6 'run':4", "contractId": "hXB2h6uOBydu0UF7IJLI", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717412459363, "probChanges": {"day": -0.125, "week": -0.125, "month": -0.125}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T15:42:10.724", "probChangeDay": -0.125, "probChangeWeek": -0.125, "resolutionTime": 1717428942833, 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2oeXi9dWtc4FjUWLQcPm | the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-waw30v5cwa | 2463.821646101895 | The most popular Wikipedia article in June 2024? 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"https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2019/01/02/wikipedias-most-popular-articles-of-2018-show-that-pop-culture-rules-over-us-all/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2017", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2018/01/03/wikipedia-most-read-2017/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2016", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2017/01/05/wikipedia-most-read-2016/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2015", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2016/01/08/wikipedia-top-read-2015/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "* since July 2015. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(added later: please note, previous top monthly visited pages are excluded from this market, not previous winners of such markets)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "PS In case of false positives (trying not to count them) or doubtful results from source, I reserve the right to resolve according to my judgement. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-----------------", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is a market for whole 2024:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/what-will-be-the-most-popular-wikip", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.810203482257993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | itsTomekK | 1720185829175 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 7 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "q8gvgtn2jq", "prob": 0.03656137549153872, "text": "2024 United States presidential election", "index": 0, "poolNo": 73.62922282533086, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1940.2234245503303, "textFts": "'2024':1 'elect':5 'presidenti':4 'state':3 'unit':2", "contractId": "2oeXi9dWtc4FjUWLQcPm", "createdTime": 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0.5000000000000004 | LesUhZn88wsOk4KAUuJ7 | {"NO": 323.7661762901674, "YES": 3088.648763309272} | 0.09487890013990287 | metaculus-will-trump-and-biden-shak | 7833.189403988094 | [Metaculus] Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | 1730998800000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.77404962738645 | False | basic | public | 1717421187888 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24020/trump-biden-debate-handshake/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24020/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24020/trump-biden-debate-handshake/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.004743254528149277, "month": -0.4298132150836915} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 151.20534360899902, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1720076338190 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 52 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1717421188047}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717421592763}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717421595890}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717421600555}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717421607846}] | ["metaculus", "donald-trump", "the-life-of-biden", "debate", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720076335081 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | EuEPJ7QQOJrvx3c8mW75 | {"NO": 4622.776477073963, "YES": 216.32021469334825} | 1 | metaculus-will-the-european-union-a | 5906.555588232417 | [Metaculus] Will the EU announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | 1718306309394 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.898437788204152 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717421190263 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23877/eu-new-tariffs-on-evs-from-china-july-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/23877/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23877/eu-new-tariffs-on-evs-from-china-july-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.13} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.03691942189256, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718306309394 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1718306309394 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1717421190453}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1717421542593}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1717421547845}, {"name": "Electric Vehicles", "slug": "electric-vehicles", "groupId": "d446b2a7-547c-4650-95e9-e0ff79ce883e", "createdTime": 1717421556565}] | ["metaculus", "european-union", "china", "electric-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718207822596 | 1718192128364 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | VUBCAvt23yOzyapcVPrc | {"NO": 2407.649556034499, "YES": 415.3428382023518} | 0.8528714285414739 | 20240826-will-nflx-close-above-555 | 2576.7093512659053 | 2024-08-26: Will NFLX close above $555? | 1724731140000 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.694205811355097 | False | basic | public | 1717422274622 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.145476064828704} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.64109269959586, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MRN267 | 1718028763154 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717422274779}, {"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh0GMczfxM1jBSdl", "createdTime": 1717422274803}] | ["stocks", "netflix"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718028760037 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4819001570471167 | 8mLQNh5tur4qPwXFl5hB | {"NO": 7009.855719266936, "YES": 14526.040700835034} | 0.30979949347560304 | will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx | 14288.092428597194 | Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim? | 2082841140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.799133863363444 | False | plus | public | 1717423813558 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claim of Probability:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Types of Qualifying Statements:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Statements such as \"certain”, \"almost sure”, \"pretty certain”, \"almost inevitable\", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification of Ambiguity:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 90%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (the same question but 50% instead of 90%): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06345423190193672} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 350.5122894343389, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1717921394130 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 38 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717423813735}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717423813747}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717423813733}] | ["ai-safety", "ai", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717921391015 | 1717520340774 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | CAMDMHyZ0o2VjG65bly6 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-what-do-coherence-arguments-ac | 0 | Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1717423976056 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "What do coherence arguments actually prove about agentic behavior?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GPuXM3ufXfmaktYXZ/what-do-coherence-arguments-actually-prove-about-agentic", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717423976230 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717423976230}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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