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0.5000000000000003 | 2l7uTflHwTuMepaPAMrM | {"NO": 107.70473333423797, "YES": 9284.643014682762} | 0 | belmont-stakes-will-sierra-leone-an | 9054.281264871113 | BELMONT STAKES: Will "Sierra Leone" and "Mystik Dan" finish 1-2? | 1717887406306 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.85357556426209 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717432444496 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is essentially an exacta box with Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the finish order is 1. Sierra Leone, 2. Mystik Dan, or 1. Mystik Dan, 2. Sierra Leone, then this resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either Sierra Leone or Mystik Dan finishes third or worse, then this resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: If either horse is scratched before the race, or disqualified after the race, this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2013489584202686} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.45079668880272, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717887406306 | 1000 | StefanXJ7 | 1717887406306 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717432444682}, {"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f", "createdTime": 1717432444683}, {"name": "News", "slug": "news", "groupId": "586c2ce6-5e77-441a-b7ba-922fd387e3be", "createdTime": 1717432444684}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1717432444681}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1717432444723}] | ["sports-default", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "news", "tv", "horse-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717886853469 | 0.01 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yZ5DyPidop6wWSSpeaQM | is-climate-change-the-most-importan | 0 | Is climate change the most important issue of our time? | oigmP5QCNyV1PO3bBdDxkxwpQxB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717433215275 | Alon Ragoler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AlonRagoler | 1717433215275 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpfo1fYA8-tasZ4QczW0qEvjON_jEY1H9XrftbvZRtnjFwLN4_=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714877266677 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | e6RT73qbIfSvPivd5QHL | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066195} | 0.01000000000000001 | uk-general-election-will-the-conser | 17008.224774655813 | UK General Election - Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats | 1722466740000 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923041 | False | basic | public | 1717433317914 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - Conservatives get less than 100 seats in the next UK GE", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO - Conservatives get more than 100 seats in the next UK GE", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Election is scheduled for 04/07/2024 - results come in throughout the night.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": -0.657455839147915, "month": -0.5639222035306666} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 253.19048671953985, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | vVv | 1720159486158 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 54 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | [{"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1717433318081}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717433318147}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717433318104}] | ["uk-conservative-party", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720159486158 | 1718884758878 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FPvoSSR9Tr8ZWM0HUqlE | what-is-your-manifold-betting-strat | 0 | What is your Manifold betting strategy? | PoTDkv6ZTCgAeX43dhkKatpwoBl2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717433573070 | A | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would like to settle a dispute about optimal strategy.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Arrg6p | 1717445162875 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJlPEKpHlz5kNGcte9-58kFeV1TPhylXuLL97GLK981pTimlA=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717094262228 | 0 | 0.25 | 1717445161439 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i7MfyFY2suKiv37p3D3d | which-shoe-brand-is-better | 0 | Which shoe brand is better? | rEem4T5lzMZU5rX3KjYKmtQErTD3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717433952070 | Colin C | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ColinC | 1717433952070 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyxHjFl7_8muVLCMVbR9zEy2oFGFf0P7qHkxp1welMUBRQtA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717106159659 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999993 | iVgiDMUERQbVdcth11pK | {"NO": 163.53352504094246, "YES": 6114.954103445463} | 0.02604664287287384 | will-trumps-sentencing-occur-before | 18168.41442414165 | Will Trump's sentencing occur before the Republican National Convention? | 1721026740000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87903354540607 | False | basic | public | 1717434294288 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0021993560565768747, "week": -0.8786553097061698, "month": -0.7739533571271262} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 258.12650072032255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 250 | 1000 | BlueDragon | 1720189343273 | 0 | 80 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717434294486}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717434294495}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1717434294505}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717434294504}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717434294506}] | ["trump-indictments", "us-politics", "magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720189340012 | 1719961168165 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | n2DFTVbAmSeanW6qXWtv | {"NO": 101.4363051348621, "YES": 9858.403247934542} | 0 | will-england-beat-iceland-on-fri-ma | 12988.306017471601 | Will England beat Iceland on Fri, Jun 7, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽ | 1717792855964 | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850230026829415 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717435283480 | DAC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Friday, June 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔑 Market Resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "England", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " has more goals", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Both teams have an equal number of goals", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Iceland ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "has more goals", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "🕐 Market Closing Time:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔎 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Match details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.englandfootball.com/england/mens-senior-team/fixtures-results/2023-24/England-v-iceland-international-match-friday-7-june-2024-match-centre", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.8423752214924761} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.97235717751207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717792855964 | 1000 | DaAdCh | 1717792855964 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704630344002 | 0 | [{"name": "Soccer Friendlies", "slug": "soccer-friendlies", "groupId": "787e1d35-6553-4c6b-a5b5-fd90b3391601", "createdTime": 1717435283631}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1717435283615}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717435283632}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1717435283678}] | ["soccer-friendlies", "football", "sports-default", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717792584981 | 1717792843433 | 0.01 | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999996 | XD8q3xppPHGj3ou6x9ea | {"NO": 5467.821516452728, "YES": 182.88819358696946} | 1 | metaculus-will-fideszkdnp-maintain | 4511 | [Metaculus] Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | 1718320709616 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886540678755068 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717435884930 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24813/hungarian-mep-election-will-fidesz-kdnp-win/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24813/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24813/hungarian-mep-election-will-fidesz-kdnp-win/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1406177669690879} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.17848354727231, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718320709616 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1718320709616 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1717435885200}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1717435914369}, {"name": "European Elections", "slug": "european-elections", "groupId": "6091a62e-fa6b-43ec-b403-5de478cdb41e", "createdTime": 1717435917426}, {"name": "Hungary", "slug": "hungary", "groupId": "5affbb37-2293-4a5f-96cb-dfad079cda06", "createdTime": 1717435923443}] | ["metaculus", "european-union", "european-elections", "hungary"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718047159496 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lID7YiVssYxBWHJFX7mO | which-llm-would-make-the-best-presi | 0 | Which LLM would make the best president? | j4HC6TgsW4UUvIYi3re1XbsZX8P2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717436614269 | Knuffa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Knuffa | 1717475550724 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713920950880 | 0 | [{"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1717436614513}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717475534242}, {"name": "Leaders", "slug": "leaders", "groupId": "rCuXL6t9gAHm82vbWLoN", "createdTime": 1717475538995}, {"name": "Personal opinion", "slug": "personal-opinion", "groupId": "dd3ba25b-3f81-40a8-921d-022e57a2620b", "createdTime": 1717475544028}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717475550724}] | ["llms", "politics-default", "leaders", "personal-opinion", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5Q4weAIVD359MrPfDW4K | if-icj-rules-in-favor-of-sa-then-wh | 750 | If ICJ rules in favor of SA, then which nominee wins 2024 US election? | 2051326740000 | T9qlwITovwZDY0MqM7GAILLynPD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717437604133 | Payola | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will not resolve any answer to YES unless the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rules decisively in favor of South Africa (SA) in its genocide case against Israel before the market expiration date, and a current (as of time of market creation) presumptive nominee for a major United States (US) political party wins the 2024 US presidential election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden) The ICJ rules in favor of SA, and Biden wins in 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump) The ICJ rules in favor of SA, and Trump wins in 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[2024 United States presidential election](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[South Africa's genocide case against Israel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa%27s_genocide_case_against_Israel)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Election results will be resolved according to [Polymarket](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is logically conditional and not temporally conditional.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.725325765706447, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ruttar | 1718550586059 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fruttar%2Fu5RozBK-cy.bmp?alt=media&token=29f2c0bf-19df-40ff-a030-9b5d518904c2 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "i9qu65gk64", "prob": 0.26111136552538927, "text": "Biden", "index": 0, "poolNo": 297.23051855583066, "userId": "T9qlwITovwZDY0MqM7GAILLynPD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 841.0980178438203, "textFts": "'biden':1", "contractId": "5Q4weAIVD359MrPfDW4K", "createdTime": 1717437604133, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:00:04.303", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "xid6qbjyll", "prob": 0.23982782750688839, "text": "Trump", "index": 1, "poolNo": 280.8431317596115, "userId": "T9qlwITovwZDY0MqM7GAILLynPD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 890.1766563904732, "textFts": "'trump':1", "contractId": "5Q4weAIVD359MrPfDW4K", "createdTime": 1717437604133, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:00:04.307", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691001125761 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717437604448}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717437604456}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717437604479}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717437604491}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1717437604499}] | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "law-order"] | 0.25 | 1718550583012 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | zseR1bbKgiThQiav10JZ | {"NO": 1393.2610920384711, "YES": 717.7405625652743} | 0.6599999999999998 | will-there-be-a-pickleball-emoji-re | 627.0957011521258 | Will there be a Pickleball emoji released before Pickleball is played in the Olympics? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.545704477642646 | False | basic | public | 1717437817980 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market open until either happens", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far a Pickleball emoji has been proposed three times: expired in 2019, declined in 2022, and declined in 2022 again.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Expired", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Proposal was returned for modifications and not returned within 60 days. Usually this is because of deficiencies with the initial proposal, and would not progress unless revised by the author and resubmitted.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Declined", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The proposal is declined, because one or more of the selection factors was not satisfactory. For example, the expected usage was not shown to be sufficiently high. Emoji that have been Declined are not eligible to be re-reviewed for two years.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -9.926653026848253e-05} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.984124025496165, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718261854334 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717437818151}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717437818159}, {"name": "Unicode", "slug": "unicode", "groupId": "962ad0ee-359e-48c1-9b26-7bd418a3a98a", "createdTime": 1717437818154}, {"name": "pickleball", "slug": "pickleball", "groupId": "4EvBU5nl1Fy2j96VjRx8", "createdTime": 1717437818181}, {"name": "Design", "slug": "design", "groupId": "07f15121-570e-4ebc-a88a-b95e420d9b04", "createdTime": 1717437818270}] | ["culture-default", "internet", "unicode", "pickleball", "design"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718015885396 | 1718261852901 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mOqFZlHoExvqnRbK2kyQ | {"NO": 894.7205861327652, "YES": 1117.6673650958267} | 0.44460641179377236 | will-anthropic-employ-scott-aaronso | 1345.8707079297665 | Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025? | 1742626740000 | e25NgP91ONZwgj1cCcYRU4g3mZw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572255538121968 | False | basic | public | 1717438417327 | Andrew McKnight | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott Aaronson was recruited to OpenAI by Jan Leike and worked on OpenAI's Superalignment team but that team has been disbanded and Jan works at Anthropic now. Scott's two-year term at OpenAI ends in the summer of 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In May 2024 Scott said on his blog:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"I’ll certainly continue thinking about how AI is changing the world and how (if at all) we can steer its development to avoid catastrophes, because how could I ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " think about that? I spent 15 years mostly avoiding the subject, and that now seems like a huge mistake, and probably like enough of that mistake for one lifetime.\"", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1815148659826583} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.059247505189184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndrewMcKnight | 1719328309353 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670553336089 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717438418105}, {"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1717438418104}] | ["ai", "anthropic"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719328306195 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qXdYLJ96W4xJtRRwxTVb | how-many-times-will-ai-be-mentioned-sp0ttzh0wm | 0 | How many times will "AI" be mentioned at WWDC24 Keynote on June 10th 2024? | 1717438792472 | hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717438751266 | Lee Woods | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple will be holding their annual developer conference on June 10th 2024. AI is rumored to be a hot topic. With Alphabet and Microsoft both mentioning the \"AI\" during their respective keynotes, I'm curious how many times Apple will. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717438792472 | 1000 | LeeWoods | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJ2D9jnq95ZstW0tW1YTMtoJ-heKtQ_G_R0RQwetoJQbot=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "jlh394qk3e", "prob": 0.5, "text": ">50", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "qXdYLJ96W4xJtRRwxTVb", "resolverId": "hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32", "createdTime": 1717438751266, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:19:52.758", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717438792472, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "nks0nq71nb", "prob": 0.5, "text": "<50", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "qXdYLJ96W4xJtRRwxTVb", "resolverId": "hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32", "createdTime": 1717438751266, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:19:52.915", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717438792472, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709837160963 | True | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717438751588}, {"name": "Big Tech", "slug": "big-tech", "groupId": "1a9ef4d5-dcc6-468f-a9b7-feccdaa92733", "createdTime": 1717438751589}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1717438751587}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1717438751618}] | ["ai", "big-tech", "apple", "-wwdc-2024"] | 0.25 | hqOOjUTKcZSIxV9xoFiJrPgLwf32 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | mcSWlvJeAXfDef0lJ5RT | {"NO": 1221.7885104642226, "YES": 818.4722572158144} | 0.5988393884834182 | will-nick-chubb-play-in-an-nfl-game | 568.6598574205422 | Will Nick Chubb play in an NFL game in Weeks 1-9? | 1730869140000 | BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576573775115477 | False | basic | public | 1717438932157 | pitstop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Chubb plays at least one snap in any game between and including Weeks 1 and 9. This is about the 2024 NFL Regular Season.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04037153005233263} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.26200212192364, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pitstop | 1717995599432 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661266134199 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1717438932299}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1717438932301}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717438932302}, {"name": "Cleveland Browns", "slug": "cleveland-browns", "groupId": "e924624b-54ab-4061-8217-0a2b1232c05a", "createdTime": 1717438932311}] | ["nfl", "football", "sports-default", "cleveland-browns"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717995596325 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | LPngNTQSQFhK2pwFa9ip | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-someone-make-an-obsidianmd-plu | 50 | Will Someone Make an Obsidian.md plugin for Fatebook Embeds This Year? | 1735718340000 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1717443423324 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be able to be created and directed embedded inside of obsidian. Connected to official Fatebook", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | keltan | 1717448513342 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | [{"name": "Obsidian", "slug": "obsidian", "groupId": "48db7cb7-6ba0-40eb-827b-f95e9e1523a6", "createdTime": 1717443423470}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1717443423465}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717443423485}, {"name": "Fatebook", "slug": "fatebook", "groupId": "b47d25fc-2a5e-4d97-a23a-49c93c8a9a96", "createdTime": 1717443423578}] | ["obsidian", "predictions-on-predictions", "programming", "fatebook"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717448510216 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36756674657410293 | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | {"NO": 5383.652891559365, "YES": 27510.93967373084} | 0 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | 23929.9258128985 | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | 1717864784908 | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2598698992101687 | True | plus | NO | public | 1717444075918 | Shelvacu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "my sex market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is shown on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LO/Manifest news tab", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/manifest-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " by 5:30 PM on Friday, June 7th and continues to be shown (with allowances for site downtime and brief periods) for 24 hours after that time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is possible for both my gripes below to be resolved and for this market to resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I created a market recently about how many people I'll have sex with during LO/Manifest: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In contrast to my experience last year, where it felt like every third person I talked to commented on it, very few people brought it up. There are many possible reasons for this, I assumed that maybe the LessWrong crowd didn't care as much, or people thought it was tacky and didn't have much positive to say. However it has become clear to me that nobody has seen the market, because Manifold makes it very hard to stumble upon. Despite having a large liquidity pool and a question which is obviously relevant and interesting to the people attending manifest, this market does not show in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LO/Manifest tab", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/manifest-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on the main page. When I asked the relevant people about this, rather than the wonderful frank, straightforward communication I'm used to I got stilted, awkward answers. I was redirected to someone else multiple times.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I posit that something has happened to manifold that maybe they don't even realize because it happened so slowly. They transitioned from wanting to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "be", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sex-positive, to wanting to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "appear", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sex-positive while also presenting a sterile facade to the wider public.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was told manifold \"wanted to keep it below a certain rating\", but this is ridiculous. The market is not pornographic. It has the description necessary to describe its resolution conditions. It has a picture of my body in casual clothes with a sliver of stomach showing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I encourage manifold to face this directly: either appear and be sex-positive, showing markets about sex on equal footing to other markets, or don't be sex-positive and put new rules in place to disallow these markets, and phase out the existing markets and the Sex & Love tag.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.13118306477045652} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 306.0648165309571, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717864784908 | 10000 | Shelvacu | 1717864784908 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670441671530 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717444076068}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717444076078}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1717444076082}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717444076092}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifest-2024", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717782320527 | 1717528059473 | 0.1 | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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pX5jbtvOL2CCWy0S6a2L | what-will-be-true-about-using-prize | 5269.14235236691 | What will be true about using prize points at Manifest? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1717793940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717444915769 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the Discord, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "label": "Gen"}}, {"text": " hinted that it would be useful to have prize points at Manifest:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FszttIwXp2Q.png?alt=media&token=ff2377c7-5283-4b3a-874a-24fe83d2c11d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This could imply that there is some \"use\" for prize points at Manifest (e.g. they can be exchanged for something, or etc). Guess what ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "label": "Gen"}}, {"text": " is referring to.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll plan to close this market at the start of Manifest.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any resolutions are contested, I'll ask ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "label": "Gen"}}, {"text": " if he could be the arbiter.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any number of options can resolve YES, and you can add your own.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.61817864197458, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717987554888 | 1450 | Ziddletwix | 1718031088559 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "wc59vok3of", "prob": 0.06, "text": "There is NO direct way to use prize points at Manifest", "index": 0, "poolNo": 61.91526205689212, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1009.4441648744157, "textFts": "'direct':4 'manifest':11 'point':9 'prize':8 'use':7 'way':5", "contractId": "pX5jbtvOL2CCWy0S6a2L", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717444915769, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:21:13.557", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717923255009, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.06}, {"id": "dpgaojr634", "prob": 0.98, "text": "You can exchange prize points for cash", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1597.0831182997147, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.13384299405692, "textFts": "'cash':7 'exchang':3 'point':5 'prize':4", 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"probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717923262263, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.83}, {"id": "af7fgmdrl0", "prob": 0.94, "text": ">5 attendees make use of prize points at Manifest", "index": 3, "poolNo": 998.6594057908136, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.58389961341004, "textFts": "'5':1 'attende':2 'make':3 'manifest':9 'point':7 'prize':6 'use':4", "contractId": "pX5jbtvOL2CCWy0S6a2L", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717444915769, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:43:33.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717923233309, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.94}, {"id": "qmbd2ugjv0", "prob": 0.6, "text": "A single user spends >25,000 prize points", "index": 4, "poolNo": 308.1815287925666, "userId": 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0.5000000000000011 | RLUbnq9M2RyineeqVLsL | {"NO": 999.9999999999978, "YES": 1000.0000000000017} | 1 | daily-coinflip-8qmbxcwfu4 | 7800.934260583924 | Daily coinflip | 1717559940000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57033333971474 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717445728608 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 159)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 80 heads vs 78 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4999999999999998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 128.12157257770693, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717572559765 | 1000 | Traveel | 1717577648986 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717445728970}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717445728976}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717445731438}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1717445731767}] | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717558531975 | 1717577648075 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0nylzHrNYwKaIGxtryDy | what-is-value-of-making-donations-t | 4190 | What is value of making donations to EAG London 2024 eligible for Gift Aid, in GBP? | 1727737140000 | P2EaAkVx5McWEk36QsFsmMAwxU23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717445788101 | Lovkush Agarwal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Effective Altruism Global London 2024 happened at the end of May / start of June. It is free for all participants, however, they highly encourage donations as part of the entrance process, but they do not claim Gift Aid on this.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I am interested in knowing what value was left on the table, to help judge if it is worth the EAG team putting effort into this for future events.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, assume the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only estimating the value of the Gift Aid claimed by EAG, and ignoring the potential value higher earners can get by declaring the donation on a tax return.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume for simplicity that people's donation amounts were not affected by whether the donation was tax deductible or not.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This answer will be resolved if the EAG team make a public estimate of the value they could have gotten.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the EAG team does not make a public estimate, then I am not sure of the best way of resolving this. I assume it is up to my discretion based on the most convincing estimates. 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0.5000000000000002 | M7rnQci8gT1zIPxqFdI0 | {"NO": 101.4389784117245, "YES": 9858.143444043411} | 0 | will-keith-gill-aka-roaring-kitty-b | 11990.5995591393 | Will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) be kicked off the E*Trade platform by Juneteenth? (June 19th) | 1718866740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850231480625137 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717448722540 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From the WSJ: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/e-trade-considers-kicking-meme-stock-leader-keith-gill-off-platform-f2003ec4?mod=hp_lead_pos1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E*Trade is considering telling meme-stock leader Keith Gill he can no longer use its platform after growing concerned about potential stock manipulation around his recent purchases of GameStop options, according to people familiar with the matter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At E*Trade and its owner Morgan Stanley, that power created concerns he can pump up a stock for his own benefit. Their debate includes whether his actions amounted to manipulation and whether or not the firm is willing to risk drawing the attention of his meme army by removing him, according to people familiar with their internal discussions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if there are credible news report that Keith Gill has been involuntarily kicked off or removed from the E*Trade platform by EOD on June 19th. It resolves NO by default (in the absence of any credible reports).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It also counts if his account has been so severely limited (far beyond that of a typical user) that it is functionally similar to being removed from the platform.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can't just be the promise of future enforcement (e.g. after June, they won't accept any new trades from him). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 19th seems like a reasonable deadline because ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Keith Gill (a.k.a. u/deepfuckingvalue) has ~$65 million in call options expiring on June 21st", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d6r5vp/gme_yolo_update_june_2_2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". So if E*Trade wants to step in, they may need to move quickly. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1331956302799688} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 102.6599306847907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718890724544 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1718866740000 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717448722696}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717448722699}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717448722697}, {"name": "Meme Stocks", "slug": "meme-stocks", "groupId": "524e08a3-3589-4267-9009-818d6c89cfa4", "createdTime": 1717448722701}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1717448722712}] | ["technology-default", "economics-default", "stocks", "meme-stocks", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718850807088 | 1718886686327 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | KG6FHcR9rercPvxCDq8d | {"NO": 701.810026597537, "YES": 1424.88702369803} | 0.33 | will-brazil-win-copa-america-2024 | 1098.1828583351348 | Will Brazil win Copa America 2024? | 1721015940000 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589906451787277 | False | basic | public | 1717450503426 | PedroA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.020050590299862836} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.476234173737726, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pa | 1719484717248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687393389344 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1717450503567}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717450503571}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1717450503597}] | ["soccer", "sports-default", "brazil-3292d24d179f"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719484714196 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L | how-much-will-gpt45-inference-cost | 24519.485236658355 | How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost? | 1735657140000 | 89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.488784168590609 | False | plus | public | 1717452219903 | Sophia Wisdom | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI has recently announced that they are training a new frontier-scale model. How much will this model cost?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"gpt-4.5\" here I mean any model that is clearly announced as a more capable newer generation of model, ideally whatever is the output of the training run they are currently performing. If they call the model \"gpt-5\" or \"gpt-4.25\" or \"gpt-next\" or anything like this that will count as \"gpt-4.5\" for the purpose of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be an average of input and output prices per million tokens, with the formula (output price + 2x input price) / 3. I will take the pricing for the cheapest option available that is the same model (e.g. gpt-4-8k, not gpt-4-32k). On this metric claude opus is $35/mtok, gpt-4 is $40/mtok, gpt-4-turbo is $16/mtok, and gpt-4o is $8/mtok. I will go by the first publicly announced prices I see.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 404.22258314978444, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 17500 | sophiawisdom | 1719250774905 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu25o7GK9K3P1izY1WQteKhc7mIonzLGps5iL73G=s96-c | 26 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3isest3u8s", "prob": 0.5902444966069877, "text": "<$30", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5724.580669620649, "userId": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3974.0792967633165, "textFts": "'30':1", "contractId": "MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L", "createdTime": 1717452219903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3813097529147668}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.853", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": 0.3813097529147668}, {"id": "ka2wctmlkg", "prob": 0.24291758964623933, "text": "$30-$100", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2823.381715006607, "userId": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8799.414802603727, "textFts": "'100':2 '30':1", "contractId": "MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L", "createdTime": 1717452219903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05694984995378971}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.851", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": 0.05694984995378971}, {"id": "phuda9ol55", "prob": 0.1267008886088719, "text": "$100-$300", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1157.755069187579, "userId": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7979.947766990557, "textFts": "'100':1 '300':2", "contractId": "MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L", "createdTime": 1717452219903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07752388740203053}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.699", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.07752388740203053}, {"id": "gh5qi0rntl", "prob": 0.026925349186231996, "text": "$300-$1000", "index": 3, "poolNo": 385.5286869355409, "userId": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13932.899804705976, "textFts": "'1000':2 '300':1", "contractId": "MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L", "createdTime": 1717452219903, "probChanges": {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.17371575631656044}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.852", "probChangeDay": 3.469446951953614e-18, "probChangeWeek": 3.469446951953614e-18, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.17371575631656044}, {"id": "bbv2wcpbdu", "prob": 0.013211675951669053, "text": "$1000+", "index": 4, "poolNo": 261.6966371229915, "userId": "89PHKCr0tHNvTFhGCfzzRELmUnJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19546.285187463836, "textFts": "'1000':1", "contractId": "MhIa7s1Nq64u7MvGJF2L", "createdTime": 1717452219903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18701995914996541}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.853", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.18701995914996541}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666118624432 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717452220214}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717452220208}] | ["openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1719250771469 | 1717885098319 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | Ghw7kwRalZkO5hxdkn0L | {"NO": 947.0589647556171, "YES": 1396.7304299005098} | 0.09940815612154326 | will-lessonline-may-31june-2-berkel | 400 | Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.936138340631569 | False | basic | public | 1717453101735 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yvrkBxb5Lp9XY3t7f/lessonline-may-31-june-2-berkeley-ca", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.269570099490323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717611323360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717453101900}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717611320216 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW | {"NO": 205.2466564940234, "YES": 4872.186553884828} | 0.04042330996584573 | will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat | 22468.623660986395 | Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024? | 1730869140000 | m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.268404150144178 | False | basic | public | 1717455788487 | Jeff Berman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.005145773046706867} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 124.08743937021535, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JeffBerman | 1718468898241 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJs_c1tZ1T6PMCtwsXu9NiUuQCqnjN1hMqXJXkPgADYqnQ=s96-c | 47 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707850952840 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717455788639}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717455788643}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717455788649}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718468895189 | 1717506588128 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FXtpcxBD8icaPblGqiZP | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-93 | 265.6704713360971 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 93) | 1717624740000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717455955442 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3 era score first tier 2 government in the world", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Catastrophic eruption of Pico do Cabugni, 1 tile damaged, 1 pop lost, 0 units killed, 2 tiles gained fertility", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Combat:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eleanor attacked by barbarian archer", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyFF_jhjh3h.png?alt=media&token=a9fcd173-495c-42b2-8017-e38f47081bd0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/FQlKMEn.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fcl8LT-xTcF.png?alt=media&token=b3942543-e46e-4c31-89c8-8d07946b62fb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/kWt9lie.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQABVGhfn4g.png?alt=media&token=1fc0775a-83f6-40c3-ba21-a625ec82d81d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/SnghGH8.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FopAjRMXb7m.png?alt=media&token=db807076-37dc-41bb-a42b-b699886b7e2a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/LUbRpxi.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FA0cNzQOjr7.png?alt=media&token=204a9f97-faea-4b2e-80ed-6fc8e310604c", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/OeQqFLe.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full map view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fn3yhIqUwso.png?alt=media&token=060d9021-9f61-4ab8-a663-81fa5ead99d3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/LLTN9Hx.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-47", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Link to side markets.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/manifoldplaysciv6?s=newest&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=manifoldplaysciv6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": 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0.5 | Fn7TqxwRgSh1zJIgRsB7 | {"NO": 101.1527397354214, "YES": 98.8603969220839} | 0.5057304806365365 | how-much-will-it-cost-to-create-a-m | 115 | How much will it cost to create a market on Manifold by EOY 2024 (minimal cost) | 1735685940000 | QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717485828076 | Gaston Kessler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to x% where x=minimal cost/10 or x=100 if the minimal cost is higher than 1000 Mana.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8208403531428172, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GastonKessler | 1717534031106 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702761965647 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717485828240}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717485828243}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1717485828248}, {"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1717485828244}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "mana", "manifold-adoption"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717534027980 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | Tketanh4aGZwo9iqI8jl | {"NO": 89.93853809628116, "YES": 111.18704185846109} | 0.44717602861117606 | will-there-be-a-third-party-us-pres-5cqfsg2bt5 | 110 | Will there be a third party US president before 2100. | 4102527540000 | QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717486011885 | Gaston Kessler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if a US President is elected before 01/01/2100 and isn't part of the Democratic party or the Grand Old Party at the beginning of his mandate. If the name of one of these two main parties changes, they still aren't comsidered third party.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6727710310626667, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GastonKessler | 1717531266648 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702761965647 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717486012028}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1717486012023}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717486012029}, {"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "groupId": "lzuhs9uc93209ES3QX5S", "createdTime": 1717486012039}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717486012034}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "elections", "politics-default", "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717514722824 | 1717531265283 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | JskTAw3czKGHBW7D9y9U | {"NO": 100.50378152592202, "YES": 9949.874371066195} | 0 | will-the-nikkei-225-close-on-june-4 | 9007.088836250387 | Will the Nikkei 225 close on June 4th higher than its previous day close? | 1717489190880 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923041 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717489169058 | RiskOptimization | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.21446518419113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717489190880 | 1000 | RiskOptimization | 1717489190880 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705974765884 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717489169199}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717489169202}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717489169203}] | ["finance", "economics-default", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717489178031 | 0.01 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz | manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p | 0 | Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below. | 1720130340000 | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717489467480 | Madge | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will actually make the resulting cake at market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that my cake is slightly different from the tumblr cake because it will be vegan. I have chosen nearest vegan equivalents for the items in the list. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Further information:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/vanilla-extract", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/vanilla-extract", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ingredients will be proportioned by weight and cooked to the best my ability. I do know how to bake pretty well. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Depending on the proportions of the final ingredients, I may choose to make a single cupcake. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mad/what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720130340165 | Mad | 1720155166798 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | 131 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691486901832 | 0 | [{"name": "Cooking", "slug": "cooking", "groupId": "f73f4a9f-57d0-44f4-b505-574065c56da7", "createdTime": 1717489467609}, {"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1717489467617}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717489467619}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717489467621}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1717519258232}] | ["cooking", "food", "personal-goals", "fun", "vegan"] | 0.25 | 1720155165684 | ["bt1bibis3w"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2 | what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that | 10470.094882602123 | What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1720735140000 | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717489668844 | Madge | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mad/manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on the above poll I will make a cake. What will the cake be like? Please add responses!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Good and bad and resembling a cake are all subjective concepts, admittedly. As such I won't bet on any subjective items in this market (objective ones like eg if someone adds \"it will be less than 50% flour\" I might). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In general, I have a sweet tooth, so something that resembles a milkshake or smoothie might be considered good. Also, if it resembles bread it might be considered good, too. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resembling a cake will mean, for the purposes of the market: \"was something produced that, after baking, forms a single solid?\" - as distinct from \"pile of damp flour\" or \"milkshake\", which are the two extremes of the scale with \"resembling a cake\" in the centre. That is to say, a literal loaf of bread would qualify as \"resembling a cake\" for the purposes of this market. As would, I struggle to admit, a cookie or brownie. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I intend to do my best for this market. If the ingredients skew liquidy, I'll try baking them like macarons, or something (I might solicit advice).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My husband ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "fwFek6H1zENXAJi7DAFZKaRSEuh2", "label": "Paulf4db"}}, {"text": " might also taste it to aid in judging but I'll be the final arbiter. As in all my subjective markets, requests for clarification are solicited.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 112.35643312755015, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 660.0549933766329 | 1660 | Mad | 1720220740867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | 59 | 12 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8smyti9b8l", "prob": 0.14456475112823067, "text": "It will resemble a cake AND it will taste good", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.44000601962188, "userId": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 138.70191195615297, "textFts": "'cake':5 'good':10 'resembl':3 'tast':9", "contractId": "fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2", "createdTime": 1717489668844, "probChanges": {"day": 0.014564751128230635, "week": 0.04646327427421157, "month": -0.16305586507653805}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.014564751128230635, "probChangeWeek": 0.04646327427421157, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 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{"id": "varg7jbazm", "prob": 0.9428827748310734, "text": "Manifold will be satisfied with the baking and judging process", "index": 4, "poolNo": 235.81927864574214, "userId": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.285278294532283, "textFts": "'bake':7 'judg':9 'manifold':1 'process':10 'satisfi':4", "contractId": "fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2", "createdTime": 1717528577333, "probChanges": {"day": 0.031557519440258086, "week": 0.09604962977454679, "month": 0.4428827748310734}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.031557519440258086, "probChangeWeek": 0.09604962977454679, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.4428827748310734}, {"id": "m68eo8z6lf", "prob": 0.99, "text": "@Mad will make it within a week of the poll closing ", "index": 5, "poolNo": 284.6474313425938, "userId": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.875226579218122, "textFts": "'close':11 'mad':1 'make':3 'poll':10 'week':7 'within':5", "contractId": 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cake", "index": 8, "poolNo": 4.83072530979938, "userId": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.4253189385263, "textFts": "'burn':3 'cake':7 'make':5 'someth':1", "contractId": "fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2", "createdTime": 1717638233266, "probChanges": {"day": -0.041737223892237454, "week": -0.09703828702679794, "month": -0.37999999999999257}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.041737223892237454, "probChangeWeek": -0.09703828702679794, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.37999999999999257}, {"id": "l1trb3lwh8", "prob": 0.25116168201313205, "text": "When evaluating the taste, @mad will wish she didn't have to choose between \"good\" and \"bad\" for resolving the market because it tastes just OK ", "index": 9, "poolNo": 5.791387999352191, "userId": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.26701785671859, "textFts": "'bad':17 'choos':13 'didn':9 'evalu':2 'good':15 'mad':5 'market':21 'ok':26 'resolv':19 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