CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

tGULDh5fboV46pXJVqaQ

how-many-career-passing-yards-will

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How many career passing yards will Patrick Mahomes throw for?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717514883913

The Official

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will-secret-service-protection-be-w

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Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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Jeff Berman

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What city will get the next MLB expansion team?

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1717516136178

Kakonomics

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If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

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Daisy W

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Will Biden sign the executive order on an asylum threshold by EOD?

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Will Hunter Biden be found guilty for any of the 3 charges in the gun case?

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Will Sergio Perez retain his seat at Red Bull Racing for the entirety of his new 2yr contract?

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Enlil

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Who will get the next Super Mario 64 speedrunning world record in the 120 Star category?

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10.586609649448985

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NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers

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Haws

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If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?

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Krantz

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pitstop

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Will Jimmy Fallon be alive at the end of the day on June 5th?

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Market Maker

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2024-07-26: Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close above $17185?

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2024-08-02: Will AMD close above $240?

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2024-08-02: Will AMZN close above $209?

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2024-08-16: Will NFLX close above $551?

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2024-08-16: Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close above $17321?

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2024-08-30: Will AMD close above $260?

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2024-09-06: Will AMZN close above $217?

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2024-09-13: Will MSFT close above $398?

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1718131096137

110

SaviorofPlant

1718131104767

0

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2

0

ONLY_CREATOR

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1717659085636

1718131103657

0.37

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

False

old

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0.5000000000000002

eV0e0hgeYd9vWGMiEQ57

{"NO": 382.78764579222116, "YES": 2612.4145096960647}

0

shortfuse-will-gpt4os-new-voice-mod

4366.017066362894

[Short-Fuse] Will GPT-4o's new Voice mode (multimodality) start to roll out on June 6 (PDT)?

1717675200000

lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52

cpmm-1

0

9.719189178525266

True

basic

NO

public

1717547577264

Peter 1169

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{"creatorFee": 93.54532039627121, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1717751416218

1000

Peter1169

1717675200000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c

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0.13333333333333333

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1707660435691

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0.5

1717675133773

1717563027446

0.13

lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52

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0.5000000000000002

oYgIq3qYjQvhsjl7Tgii

{"NO": 531.0850045437941, "YES": 1882.937743382544}

0.22000000000000003

lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the

2686.917174628711

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

1798779540000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.586280452627438

False

basic

public

1717548213582

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

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0

{"creatorFee": 63.32208385396901, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1719250152600

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

25

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…p/xtzo22rqbt.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717548213722}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717548213732}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "created...

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0.25

0.5

1718680832471

1718056438646

0

0.5000000000000004

wKKeNp3qeXPRDH4oVwLo

{"NO": 801.3520298700972, "YES": 1247.891017586997}

0.39104782171372776

lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th

4414

$100B AI training cluster before 2029?

1861937940000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.235155744496655

False

basic

public

1717548646094

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

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0

{"creatorFee": 139.54244915466512, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1720047238543

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

23

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…p/6ahq11fjq2.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717548646247}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717548646248}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "created...

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0.25

0.5

1720047235435

1718585823798

0

0.5

qeUEp1NNeBCK3pl592yP

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-55nf7a0u1c

0

TEST question1

1717548989627

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717548827123

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717548989627

1000

Blomfilter

1717548989627

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/zwnaqnemo6.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717548827270}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717548827273}]

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0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5000000000000002

yBgbKkObAFck4fvmcvot

{"NO": 526.428758411786, "YES": 1899.592269649094}

0.21699266095502937

lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the

4324.626014704872

$1T AI training cluster before 2031?

1925009940000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.63540626581915

False

basic

public

1717549113553

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.0330073390449708, "month": -0.07318878707326718}

0

{"creatorFee": 94.67373764529576, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1719699760556

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

16

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…p/agvt5egn1g.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717549113699}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717549113700}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "created...

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0.25

0.5

1719699757397

1718056389889

0

0.5

Uzv1j0ccUXzMpMPdMwlt

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-wj6xdbf9ji

0

TEST question1

1717549416280

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717549379665

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717549416280

1000

Blomfilter

1717549416280

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/z3hjrt9m1b.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717549379810}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717549379804}]

["culture-default", "programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

cVWEIiwXJE5dYo3wkbUN

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-yfklf5l9hj

0

TEST question1

1717549514608

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717549442467

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717549514608

1000

Blomfilter

1717549514608

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/jmysvc842t.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717549442633}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717549442631}]

["culture-default", "programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

6edC9fp42DxBDhnLXJ5f

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-ijsy7cltnx

0

Test

1717549632090

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717549606646

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "title", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " test", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717549632090

1000

Blomfilter

1717549632090

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/b1i21inurp.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717549606818}]

["programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5000000000000001

L12DK5FkKMQ72jXFZ5KW

{"NO": 119.3827408116938, "YES": 83.7642018604123}

0.587666933311353

bobby-gold-bars-menendez-is-running

20

Bobby Gold Bars Menendez is running for Senate as an independent, but will he drop out of the race before Election Day?

1730782740000

NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1717550475446

Stephen S Power

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes the day before the election to prevent sniping. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6172591883062044, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StephenSPower

1717554589811

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/817kr8k0jb.jpg

1696858950851

0

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0.25

0.5

1717554586685

0

0.5

OYCzFCL42aqALvjzxpdf

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-zljbkux68o

0

TEST question1

1717551081306

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717551059178

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717551081306

1000

Blomfilter

1717551081306

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/scevawwkjk.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717551059394}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717551059420}]

["culture-default", "programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

82bDzv9WyVRkrXhEdUG2

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-ldiw6b39es

0

Test

1717551359805

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717551184055

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "title", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " test", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717551359805

1000

Blomfilter

1717551359805

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/4qkzyygm8v.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717551184216}]

["programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

LfTigyCAoBJvPgb60esP

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-0jbe60ygeu

0

TEST question1

1717551533969

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717551500193

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717551533969

1000

Blomfilter

1717551533969

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/ygtx8mfsht.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717551500368}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717551500373}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

D3bCaGHsX9yyY71oUOn0

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-2e00wlm4x1

0

TEST question1

1717551773776

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717551751016

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717551773776

1000

Blomfilter

1717551773776

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/izujtqvdsc.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717551751169}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717551751178}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

tje0t3LA39lK8MlXAbl9

{"NO": 371.6226720561767, "YES": 2690.9014847426643}

0.12134522146745189

lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-anyone

6255.646419282341

Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?

1830315540000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.587201061427038

False

basic

public

1717552031458

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 0.0634650143202562}

0

{"creatorFee": 67.64770635932169, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1719250086652

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

40

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…p/eqqq65aipw.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717552031721}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717552031719}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9l...

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0.25

0.5

1718452743013

1718218033306

0

0.5

HWDrQHUsgvHxvfItJzbs

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-ja21bs2ond

0

TEST question1

1717552780935

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717552302512

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717552780935

1000

Blomfilter

1717552780935

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…er/a4mukn4s5.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717552302665}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717552302670}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5000000000000001

JHKXEDK0kqPssaKsSjLs

{"NO": 572.9800458546173, "YES": 1745.2614750457267}

0.24716149749232647

will-the-txse-texas-stock-exchange

1811.5115129825044

Will the TXSE (Texas Stock Exchange) be seen as a viable alternative to the NYSE/Nasdaq by 2028?

1830319140000

hXoxhZ7koFY3AfvsfcBlCr081jC2

cpmm-1

0

9.61914105462101

False

basic

public

1717553855217

Simran 🤍

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meet the TXSE: Texas Stock Exchange.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The WSJ reported on June 4 that a group backed by BlackRock and Citadel with $120M raised is planning to launch a new U.S. ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021152991350552597}

0

{"creatorFee": 42.5059414356473, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SimranRahman

1719570642028

0

https://firebasestorage.…59c-fb117d1f5f71

28

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/hz11hd7v03.jpg

1692236590304

0

[{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717553855357}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717553855381}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "cre...

["finance", "economics-default", "us-politics", "business", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1719570638919

1717602967187

0

0.5

9EaEHu8Lp8GCDPNe8IhE

{"NO": 755.3367663372062, "YES": 1323.9127824390443}

0.3632737430587696

lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-there

403

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

1830315540000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.582598672970285

False

basic

public

1717554279111

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.014752932914489536}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.86643308449089, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1719249999650

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…p/3kissqvmj5.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717554279256}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717554279257}, {"name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": "situational-awareness", "groupId": "eb68fef...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "situational-awareness", "ai-safety"]

0.25

0.5

1717893942326

1718056348698

0

eADbzLm04B8lGuYlBzVc

when-will-an-us-government-ai-run-o

2671.6676758498556

When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?

2051326740000

5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717554383680

Jacob Pfau

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves Yes on all later years.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 45.81085172921982, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JacobPfau

1720240157381

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c

30

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "6viwqep8z4", "prob": 0.017057278240440784, "text": "<2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.81883442707243, "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1084.4541591772181, "textFts": "'2026':1", "contractId": "eADbzLm04B8lGuYlBzVc", "createdTime": 1717554383680, "probChanges": {"day": 6.938...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…u/tatidjlr9t.jpg

1664600870478

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717554383835}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717554383847}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "created...

["ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "ai-safety"]

0.25

1720143377318

1717597999205

False

0

0.5

7Z2iOMXyu3x1h3dHTRnH

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-hkbdv3rtf7

0

Test

1717554933372

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717554660880

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "title", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " test", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717554941754

1000

Blomfilter

1717554933372

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/6gjlko6u8i.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717554661024}]

["programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5000000000000003

uJKitZePDd3kBWVUeIf7

{"NO": 821.6027870032294, "YES": 1217.1331643694502}

0.402996173413259

lasa-will-a-tech-company-buy-an-alu

2598.4852364940675

Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?

1893473940000

VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1

cpmm-1

0

9.57633778003153

False

basic

public

1717555796428

Tossup

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.0706841301677279, "month": -0.009265019744846559}

0

{"creatorFee": 79.65934636469615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tossup

1719714582853

0

https://firebasestorage.…65d-bb9a9100a290

14

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…up/np3mpu10q.jpg

1690748798486

0

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717555796572}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717555796574}, {"name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": "situational-awareness", "groupId": "eb68fef...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "situational-awareness"]

0.25

0.5

1719714579606

1718056326026

0

0.5

uOJVlMF0y6qUnGgy1xOh

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-ja3qf5b7xx

0

TEST question1

1717555920694

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717555890990

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717555920694

1000

Blomfilter

1717555920694

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/sx33v4pwoi.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717555891153}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717555891161}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

TSkgZ4k9hNK6M6XleZLA

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-gz8nhvoy8i

0

TEST question1

1717556315091

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717556278905

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717556315091

1000

Blomfilter

1717556315091

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/1m7ucfc05y.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717556279093}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717556279091}]

["culture-default", "programming"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

D7FrsD6T9eGYjhyvGL0q

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-r3lrjqipec

0

TEST question1

1717556365073

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717556324140

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717556365073

1000

Blomfilter

1717556365073

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/fye5q8tktn.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717556324275}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717556324278}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

0.5

zmRzu8rFqhofVI1pP77u

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

test-question1-uqbj27c20y

0

TEST question1

1717556375586

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1717556339992

Blomfilter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717556375586

1000

Blomfilter

1717556375586

0

https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/q2cxkxa0si.jpg

1677201572009

True

0

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717556340142}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717556340144}]

["programming", "culture-default"]

0.25

0.5

UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1

0

tZk2S5BbOFVEReaaX2y8

how-stunning-is-the-ai-banner-for-t

0

How stunning is the AI banner for this vast and colorful poll?

7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3

none

0

1000000

False

public

1717556388841

Interrobang

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But is the description included in the prompt, that is the question...", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Interrobang

1717556590822

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c

8

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/hrdelu0s7c.jpg

1716758434952

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717556388968}, {"name": "AI Image Generation", "slug": "ai-image-generation", "groupId": "f6beb7b0-b7ad-42da-b632-2d42ccc1e58e", "createdTime": 1717556388974}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwF...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "ai-image-generation", "ai"]

0.25

1717556589830

0

eDtP5FqOD7MqPD9iysEQ

which-driver-will-win-the-2024-toyo

1033.7946475676297

Which driver will win the 2024 Toyota / Save Mart 350 (NASCAR Cup Series) Race?

1717968600000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1717559348431

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nascar.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Nascar.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 16.761162950966476, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717973882074

4000

ovals

1717968600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "m7ekb2rnr7", "prob": 0.1, "text": "Noah Gragson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.373633493490733, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.35018091214617, "textFts": "'gragson':2 'noah':1", "contractId": "eDtP5FqOD7MqPD9iysEQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/f47lx1x2ci.jpg

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717559348649}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1717559348652}, {"name": "NASCAR", "slug": "nascar", "groupId": "63ffc939-8e85-4288-a59f-a157f0ae08b7", "cr...

["sports-default", "auto-racing", "nascar", "racing-sports"]

0.25

1717965502606

0.1

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

0.5000000000000002

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{"NO": 816.3629013589909, "YES": 1224.9454235797712}

0.3999214089245835

will-a-japanesebred-horse-win-the-2-balu7ponvj

232

Will a Japanese-bred horse win the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic?

1730609940000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-1

0

9.57673588901874

False

basic

public

1717559664578

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02977115579330447}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.05457642022881, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ovals

1717906111146

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https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

5

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0.13333333333333333

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1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd961021076", "createdTime": 1717559664721}, {"name": "Breeders' Cup", "slug": "breeders-cup", "groupId": "c3af2b35-03d3-465d-ab24-e8540135b454", "createdTime": 1717559664720}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "grou...

["racing-sports", "breeders-cup", "horse-racing", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717906108044

0

VDjGpGVJbW8mG0WR03Ge

will-the-close-price-of-xrp-be-high-6hgtxh4f44

12337.799886371515

Will the close price of XRP be higher than the previous day?

1718510340000

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1717561182203

Haws

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "XRP - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko historical data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp/historical_d...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 87.9655907328445, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718512668539

1700

Haws

1718510340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436

10

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "csskdo4vm3", "prob": 0.5, "text": "June 5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 299.89835676482767, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 208.40394283657517, "textFts": "'5':2 'june':1", "contractId": "VDjGpGVJbW8mG0WR03Ge", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", ...

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0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/a6qupflfgk.jpg

1677434458766

0

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["xrp", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "finance"]

0.25

1718499254081

0.95

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

False

alphabetical

0

0.5000000000000001

z1xJe47fB8pjPDaRCH67

{"NO": 123.88708034877956, "YES": 8071.866712692765}

0

will-the-nikkei-225-close-on-june-5

9032.088836250387

Will the Nikkei 225 close on June 5th higher than its previous day close?

1717570736445

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

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