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TAoQLiWLRYt21wDFWVQw | which-will-be-released-first-the-wi | 1651.421611411747 | Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)? | 1767247140000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717524424689 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved upon release. In the event the book's name is changed, the next novel-length sequel in either series will win. (For example, if Rothfuss releases a surprise KC prequel that is not functionally the third book in his projected trilogy, that would not resolve YES--but if he just renames the third book \"I hate writing here's the book give me my money and go away,\" that would resolve YES.)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.88407628447209, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1718159553058 | 0 | 20 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fckz0fujxz", "prob": 0.74610094021376, "text": "The Winds of Winter", "index": 0, "poolNo": 857.1133344651441, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 291.6767129238576, "textFts": "'wind':2 'winter':4", "contractId": "TAoQLiWLRYt21wDFWVQw", "createdTime": 1717524424689, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.18803886046015306, "month": 0.24610094021376006}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.18803886046015306, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.24610094021376006}, {"id": "3acgjwaofu", "prob": 0.42051890427777816, "text": "Doors of Stone", "index": 1, "poolNo": 425.93480544001363, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 586.9442853859673, "textFts": "'door':1 'stone':3", "contractId": "TAoQLiWLRYt21wDFWVQw", "createdTime": 1717524424689, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.022126649057454484, "month": 0.010001525606266326}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.022126649057454484, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.010001525606266326}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1717524425116}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717524425156}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717524425203}] | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "books", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1718159549972 | 1717597071824 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oQK9yhPb8xl41hYYzyzP | which-chocolate-will-be-the-crowd-f | 6141.646410610481 | Which chocolate will be the crowd favorite at my Chocolate 101 session today? | 1717533295197 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | s7j7i14jix | public | 1717526758997 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will be tasting 8 chocolates together as a group, and I will take a show of hands at the end to determine which was the crowd favorite. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 82.76393260357274, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717533370832 | 56100 | case | 1717533631108 | 0 | 25 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4tapqwp6s2", "prob": 0.014760705834444658, "text": "1. 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0.5 | k3FZJVDnStOooT849PhS | {"NO": 30.96600624090354, "YES": 322.9347666665137} | 0.0874991201248505 | will-manifold-revert-use-bayseian-a | 247.35178074078732 | Will Manifold revert "Use bayseian average hit rate for user topic score #2659" in June? | 1719773940000 | lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717526785292 | Ender Ting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Manifold reverts the specified PR or otherwise stops calculating conversion scores via prior-->posterior hits-misses distribution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current code from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "backend/shared/src/calculate-user-topic-interests.ts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/2659/files#diff-b568d735b23ce38b3d286ee0002328a3bffb53f706392ffc31528883b23c85d7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": "ts"}, "content": [{"text": "const totalHits = priorStats.hits + hits + FEED_CARD_HITS\nconst totalMisses = priorStats.misses + misses + FEED_CARD_MISSES\n// Using score from https://www.evanmiller.org/bayesian-average-ratings.html\nscore = betaIncompleteInverse(\n 1 / (1 + FEED_BETA_LOSS),\n totalHits,\n totalMisses\n)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.15975638672661394} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.923492662017462, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AnT | 1719461771874 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686508617605 | 0 | [{"name": "Rationality", "slug": "rationality", "groupId": "y6NwD6qw6OTGClZwTVqW", "createdTime": 1717526785456}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717526785465}, {"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1717526785463}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1717526785466}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717526785478}] | ["rationality", "manifold-6748e065087e", "statistics", "mathematics", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719461768825 | 1717527624481 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4193876425737486 | UfG2RznZMTHPtzf8zFER | {"NO": 268.95971815081435, "YES": 685.7773712414645} | 0.2207537802895474 | was-there-ever-a-memo-of-openai-lea | 360 | Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development? | 2051305140000 | Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717527346064 | dp | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leopold Aschenbrenner, in his Dwarkesh Patel interview, mentioned the following:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "> I've heard from multiple people — not from my time at OpenAI, and I haven't seen the memo — that at some point several years ago, OpenAI leadership had laid out a plan to fund and sell AGI by starting a bidding war between the governments of the United States, China, and Russia.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves Yes if, before 2035, we get sufficient evidence corroborating the claim that at least two people in the OpenAI leadership discussed a plan involving selling to or raising funds from the Russian government, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after 2014", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". For a Yes resolution, simply saying \"we won't sell to the Russian government\" is not enough; they need to discuss it without dismissing as unethical or bad in other ways.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The definition of \"OpenAI leadership\" is subjective, but generally involves executives and big team leads at the time, and people who had become executives no later than two years after when the discussion/memo happens. If it's fuzzy, I reserve the right to resolve a percentage.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sufficient evidence: at least one person who participated in writing the document or in the conversation saying this publicly, or two people who saw the document or listened to the conversation. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.807284831140588, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 400 | dp | 1717600754587 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669042956150 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717527346279}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717527346356}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1717527346292}] | ["ai", "openai", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717600751302 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bnCvIfZyeQi9sPxwHmpx | when-will-i-first-test-negative-for-yz82eeu89v | 9728.908626844956 | When will I FIRST test negative for COVID | 1717786329053 | js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | i1qouhebe9 | public | 1717528495892 | JohnofCharleston | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: I'm in Berkeley for Manifest and the associated events. I tested positive for COVID last night, Monday June 3rd. I was at a conference with 6,000 people in Phoenix last week that took minimal precautions, so I suppose I shouldn't be surprised. I was mildly congested in Phoenix and it persisted when I got to Berkeley, I chalked it up to hotel cleaning supplies.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mild congestion, no fever, no coughing. I've had allergies far worse.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've had covid once before, in late 2022, a moderate case.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I got a covid booster three weeks ago, because this conference was coming up. 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1717848910874 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | p4nhfWeQnyoehZApvM0B | {"NO": 570.0039238923046, "YES": 1754.3738877645626} | 0.24522860312712827 | will-manifold-remove-the-play-marke-vookfrrluq | 905 | Will Manifold remove the Play market tier before 2025? | 1735685940000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620070629500535 | False | basic | public | 1717535338541 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.08903170760627097, "month": -0.16318000747125752} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.049305523958246, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Base | 1719836231958 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717535338707}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1717535338706}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717535338737}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1717535338783}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719836228899 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P5pFDwiPUlQSttXbuOfX | should-i-go-to-hoco-2024-or-do-some | 0 | Should I go to Hoco 2024 or do something elsewhere with friends? | 1735718340000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717535463217 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | stardust2 | 1717535463217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4rtaog8XG9XR7GVD0giN | {"NO": 10.050378152592117, "YES": 994.9874371066179} | 0 | will-sam-altman-appear-at-wwdc | 1480.162866704804 | Will Sam Altman Appear at WWDC? | 1718049616912 | wYQH0EiexvTzmYpVinhF0TBXFAC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717535728000 | bjubes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Sam Altman is in any way part of the WWDC Keynote video. He must appear on screen, not just be mentioned.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.393144145623836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718049616912 | 100 | bjubes | 1718049616912 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680542735148 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1717535728154}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717535728151}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717535728144}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717535793297}] | ["apple", "openai", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718045621733 | 0.01 | wYQH0EiexvTzmYpVinhF0TBXFAC3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mVxePkWaRdiRQeIYCCQ6 | are-police-sweeps-necessary | 0 | Are police sweeps more beneficial than they are detrimental? | 1717743540000 | 1rsoX9q5IAVFHs732Hlv7jlDTM82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717536508473 | dragooner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Doing this for an English project. Topic for this project is how police sweeps affect the homeless population and the city/location they reside in. Using this poll to get data on the general public's opinion on whether or not police sweeps are necessary (ie, whether or not they need to remain in the system)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: changed from \"Are police sweeps necessary\" to \" Are police sweeps more beneficial than they are detrimental\" to fit the original intention of the English project. Sorry for any misunderstanding caused by the original wording. \"Beneficial\" and \"detrimental\" apply to anyone directly affected to by the sweeps themselves (police officers, the homeless, nearby shop owners, etc), members of the community wherein the sweeps take place (residents, students, parents), OR people that have a 'stake' in the community (HOA, landlords, local politicians). The level of relevancy of affected groups is up to you.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717743540915 | jousting | 1717619054044 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717130148628 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717536508822}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717536508813}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717536508835}] | ["us-politics", "world-default", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1717619053073 | ["fd1atxaemc"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn | when-will-the-us-h5n1-human-case-co | 470 | When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100? | 1738483140000 | wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717537414628 | winthefin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this question based on the official CDC case count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.478150034247577, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WinstonWalker | 1718202840901 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "mpl6f8it10", "prob": 0.2730480626436807, "text": "Before August 1st, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 153.2169134490388, "userId": "wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 407.918411832438, "textFts": "'1st':3 '2024':4 'august':2", "contractId": "fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn", "createdTime": 1717537414628, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.173357671016046}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 5.551115123125783e-17, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.173357671016046}, {"id": "6je8o2rytl", "prob": 0.5189624602505107, "text": "Before October 1st, 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 259.66803753729545, "userId": "wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 240.6919257092752, "textFts": "'1st':3 '2024':4 'octob':2", "contractId": "fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn", "createdTime": 1717537414628, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.018962460250510738}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.018962460250510738}, {"id": "tn0ecqbhdt", "prob": 0.6708923039261401, "text": "Before December 1st, 2024", "index": 2, "poolNo": 356.94178777664285, "userId": "wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 175.0985794891282, "textFts": "'1st':3 '2024':4 'decemb':2", "contractId": "fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn", "createdTime": 1717537414628, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17089230392614008}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.17089230392614008}, {"id": "zvgjkdflx1", "prob": 0.7249867255312238, "text": "Before February 1st, 2025", "index": 3, "poolNo": 405.90855764187927, "userId": "wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 153.97556622874126, "textFts": "'1st':3 '2025':4 'februari':2", "contractId": "fql8JHxJXKRYjHX972Rn", "createdTime": 1717537414628, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.05409469893382601, "month": 0.22498672553122379}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.05409469893382601, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.22498672553122379}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702834154769 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1717537414799}, {"name": "CDC", "slug": "cdc", "groupId": "59ZYHRGiXdelAzsEsW1G", "createdTime": 1717537414808}, {"name": "Pandemic", "slug": "pandemic", "groupId": "5OlW5cUQPgx5A9W1OPnp", "createdTime": 1717537414804}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717537414844}] | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "cdc", "pandemic", "public-health"] | 0.25 | 1718202836972 | 1718200440887 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
x7IWhmBC76YhK0Aus2Vh | will-i-gain-or-lose-fide-rating-poi | 0 | will i gain or lose fide rating points in my next tournament | 1717546014438 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717537832082 | Erick Zhao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "idk my next tournament", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717546020442 | ErickZhao | 1717546042164 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714481298497 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1717537832242}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 1717546040967 | ["8gr720bf1p", "ha1fbqtgf9"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3pOhtRhmJ2kFtmaHfMD5 | {"NO": 50.93640876216766, "YES": 196.32322425187095} | 0.20600373842371453 | will-google-implement-gemini-in-its | 310.2157145035989 | Will Google implement Gemini in its most popular services by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | 7NICs2lMMqdrnUSa9u6JPqhehr23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717538013302 | Márk Sárközi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Google implement Gemini in its most popular services by the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E.g. Gmail, Drive, Photos, Maps, YouTube", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://strawpoll.com/most-popular-google-products", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://strawpoll.com/most-popular-google-products", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if it's implemented in at least 4 of the 5 services mentioned above", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if it's implemented in less than 4 services mentioned above", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.16704177328619266} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.678754462577993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MarkSarkozi | 1719069786771 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfhTytqY6hycDxtJnucOK7Sf9HQVzFMcrtVU_F3kaw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1685040441450 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717538013455}, {"name": "Google Gemini", "slug": "google-gemini", "groupId": "m7v1GlEs2JcFyqdvUbuN", "createdTime": 1717538013460}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717538013461}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1717538013462}] | ["ai", "google-gemini", "technology-default", "google-ef2cf716540e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719069783700 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9dul0axY5vmfuny5HtIh | {"NO": 1584.4037875799465, "YES": 631.1522402552592} | 0.715126933227705 | will-conan-edogawa-shinichi-kudo-re | 600 | Will Conan Edogawa (Shinichi Kudo) return to his original age by the end of the manga? | 4084898340000 | wbbc2vFLszVIdeohFdxVVPTUFlR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.603521410830918 | False | basic | public | 1717538914444 | No Name White | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved when the manga \"Detective Conan\" (\"Meitantei Kona\") by Gōshō Aoyama is completed", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.07287361124448977} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.596212420053313, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NoNameWhite | 1719215686370 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFiGtVhyEt8zll4pF57fzLdm5Fwdzi8pzVLm2kR3U3o5aM_rd-=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714726072561 | 0 | [{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1717538914593}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717538914606}, {"name": "Detective Conan", "slug": "detective-conan", "groupId": "1b8c234b-50fe-493c-88d5-cc7366cf2aab", "createdTime": 1717538914603}] | ["anime", "manga", "detective-conan"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719215683305 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Qk7oq5SRJo5m53Aacl1M | will-we-be-able-to-get-free-mana-we | 599.5239631610659 | Will we be able to get free mana weekly by creating questions throughout 2024? | 1735685940000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717539448018 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, there is a weekly quest to create a question which pays out M500. 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0.5000000000000001 | 6MycY02yF0q6mbuyShbX | {"NO": 998.589216288151, "YES": 1001.4127768343951} | 0.49929411056690115 | was-the-sf-dog-walker-arson-a-hoax | 190 | Was the SF dog walker arson a hoax? | 1749711540000 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333649128775 | False | basic | public | 1717539477425 | Aryeh Zax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some non-exhaustive background reading material:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/racist-threats-black-dog-walkers-home-fire-san-francisco-rcna153529", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/racist-threats-black-dog-walkers-home-fire-san-francisco-rcna153529", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/s-f-police-probe-possible-suspect-fire-home-19485272.php", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/s-f-police-probe-possible-suspect-fire-home-19485272.php", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No hard and fast deadline or resolution criteria. I will resolve the market according to my own best judgment, at such time as I am confident I know the answer.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.410103996081334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | azax | 1717566225155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663132225081 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717539477576}, {"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1717566225155}] | ["culture-default", "san-francisco"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717544244218 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | jgmjcJYn5paGqQxSxI3n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-greece-source-at-least-66-of-i | 0 | Will greece source at least 66% of it's electricity consumption from renewable low carbon sources in the year 2027? | 1830290340000 | D4fjdrAhMiUcg9LiSkhed5yXtyj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717545693911 | Aristotelis Kostelenos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AristotelisKostelenos | 1717545730658 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCrQL5G2xOo75-_AUd2BGY72maxrFNnJ3XsGigBIm_=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702689423419 | 0 | [{"name": "Energy policy", "slug": "energy-policy", "groupId": "5OW6YWICJXxUpNrNeXqp", "createdTime": 1717545694108}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1717545694114}, {"name": "Renewable Energy", "slug": "renewable-energy", "groupId": "152b68be-2657-4089-a90e-06486ca8f1e5", "createdTime": 1717545694115}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1717545694166}, {"name": "Greece", "slug": "greece", "groupId": "e73afd91-90ee-4a1f-93ca-adcea66cc108", "createdTime": 1717545694145}] | ["energy-policy", "energy", "renewable-energy", "climate", "greece"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717545729564 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | piw0YOiRwSpPmEbJHrXf | {"NO": 199.02692188464232, "YES": 5024.445891695043} | 0.038102413659974174 | will-either-biden-die-before-their | 12701.753777695718 | Will either Biden or Trump die before their respective party conventions end? | 1724396340000 | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.892433759644975 | False | basic | public | 1717546310930 | Jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 22 for Biden and July 18th for Trump.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0007378956372638967, "week": -0.0007378956372638967, "month": -0.006681508801190637} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 76.8895766892087, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | JimAusman | 1720203103551 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669143819202 | 0 | [{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1717546311077}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717546311066}, {"name": "🫏 Democratic Party", "slug": "democratic-party", "groupId": "345309ab-caa0-4c2d-8dae-7f55d25e789a", "createdTime": 1717546311074}] | ["death-markets", "the-life-of-biden", "democratic-party"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720203100461 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | WP6Bm4Xf7Zd0I3Izca6T | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | test-zj54aqzld1 | 0 | Test | 1717546408123 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717546381592 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "title", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " test", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717546408123 | 1000 | Blomfilter | 1717546408123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677201572009 | True | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717546381888}] | ["programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 4cZRK67eRwY3KIGZXDAZ | {"NO": 302.78144593144043, "YES": 3302.71228120904} | 0 | will-a-mishap-investigation-be-requ | 4077.8663720242293 | Will Starship Flight 4 result in an FAA mishap investigation? | 1718229413181 | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.805312361907937 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717546707016 | Nat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1798089390708687106"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it is clear that a mishap investigation ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "is", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " required: eg the FAA states an investigation is required, IFT-4 results in fatalities/injuries/public damages, there are reputable reports of a mishap investigation underway etc", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it is clear that a mishap investigation ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "is not ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "required: eg the FAA states an investigation is not required, multiple reputable sources state that an investigation is not required, there is no evidence of a mishap investigation having occurred or being underway 4 months following IFT-4 etc", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Traders will be consulted prior to resolving if I believe it is sufficiently clear but none of the above example conditions have been met", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0qEwNa6FtTWBBEq058Af", "label": "/dp9000/will-spacex-achieve-a-mishapfree-st"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.6053103939768739} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 73.64116253788164, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718229413181 | 1000 | Nat | 1718229413181 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702671407106 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717546707166}, {"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717546707181}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717546707178}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717546707200}] | ["spacex", "starship-launch-party", "space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718078518243 | 1718229400469 | 0.08 | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eJqFMlJR7rNhvUaISlOS | on-what-days-this-month-will-i-spen | 30.934211340642722 | On what days this month will I spend at least an hour attempting to meditate? | 1718131096137 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1717546943045 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See previous market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-i-successfully-meditate-on-eac", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-i-successfully-meditate-on-eac", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I may add new days if I so choose. I will not trade on this market except to increase the number of traders.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9228115048266656, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718131096137 | 110 | SaviorofPlant | 1718131104767 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "stqvn5eids", "prob": 0.42, "text": "June 5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.191813232111176, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.5730998734723, "textFts": "'5':2 'june':1", "contractId": "eJqFMlJR7rNhvUaISlOS", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "createdTime": 1717546943045, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1717653661871, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.42}, {"id": 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0.5000000000000002 | eV0e0hgeYd9vWGMiEQ57 | {"NO": 382.78764579222116, "YES": 2612.4145096960647} | 0 | shortfuse-will-gpt4os-new-voice-mod | 4366.017066362894 | [Short-Fuse] Will GPT-4o's new Voice mode (multimodality) start to roll out on June 6 (PDT)? | 1717675200000 | lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.719189178525266 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717547577264 | Peter 1169 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BE AWARE: This market closes at 5:00 AM (PDT) on June 6 to avoid trading after OpenAI offices open that day (when the rollout could start).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Flowers (@futuristflower on Twitter), a known leaker, posted several strange videos featuring different voices and chaotic rambling. It is possible that this indicates the new Voice mode rollout on June 6, there was a rumored date for GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 for this day, might instead be for the Voice mode. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The videos posted by Flowers were deleted.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General users (not OpenAI employees or affiliates) start to get the new Voice mode of GPT-4o in ChatGPT web, Android/iPhone apps, or in the API.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rollout MUST start between June 6 0:00:00 PDT and June 6 23:59:59 PDT to count for a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't matter if the rollout is slow or if some countries don't receive the rollout yet (like EU countries).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credible evidence from users with the new Voice mode or an official statement from OpenAI regarding the start of the rollout will suffice.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The YES criteria are not met. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "✔️", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The GPT-4o new Voice mode rollout doesn't start during June 6. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "✔️", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OP Trading:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVED as NO (June 7, 2024).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.21999999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 93.54532039627121, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717751416218 | 1000 | Peter1169 | 1717675200000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707660435691 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717547577954}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717547577956}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717547577966}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1717547577969}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c", "createdTime": 1717547647693}] | ["openai", "ai", "technology-default", "gpt4", "short-fuse"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717675133773 | 1717563027446 | 0.13 | lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | oYgIq3qYjQvhsjl7Tgii | {"NO": 531.0850045437941, "YES": 1882.937743382544} | 0.22000000000000003 | lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the | 2686.917174628711 | Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? | 1798779540000 | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586280452627438 | False | basic | public | 1717548213582 | Tossup | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will take \"the work of an AI research/engineer\" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027. Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense. I will use my best judgement. 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0.5000000000000004 | wKKeNp3qeXPRDH4oVwLo | {"NO": 801.3520298700972, "YES": 1247.891017586997} | 0.39104782171372776 | lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th | 4414 | $100B AI training cluster before 2029? | 1861937940000 | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.235155744496655 | False | basic | public | 1717548646094 | Tossup | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$100B worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Computers must be networked together and training one model. 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0.5000000000000002 | yBgbKkObAFck4fvmcvot | {"NO": 526.428758411786, "YES": 1899.592269649094} | 0.21699266095502937 | lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the | 4324.626014704872 | $1T AI training cluster before 2031? | 1925009940000 | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63540626581915 | False | basic | public | 1717549113553 | Tossup | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$1T worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Computers must be networked together and training one model. 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