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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000001 | pTjlG8MGICj3VAXlTFm9 | {"NO": 106.13047356738268, "YES": 94.22364438665151} | 0.5297144608314537 | will-vince-and-isaac-together-beat | 294.3079507095521 | Will Vince and Isaac together beat Crémieux in a wrestling match? | 1718175540000 | hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1717565475616 | Ari Zerner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if the match doesn't happen. Resolves NO if the match is a draw.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010285539168546465} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.992949405136369, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719720953957 | 100 | AriZerner | 1718175540000 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699161469267 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717565475799}, {"name": "Wrestling", "slug": "wrestling", "groupId": "8j7nBRAbAX309o2IZUuV", "createdTime": 1717565475802}] | ["manifest-2024", "wrestling"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718160173553 | 1719719053606 | 0.53 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 67dal14KSC585YKMWiQM | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066206} | 0.010000000000000021 | will-seti-receive-a-radio-transmiss | 1532.7221846439134 | Will SETI receive a radio transmission that is unambiguously from another world by the end of 2024? | 1720238340000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717572240332 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.005007567030436465, "week": -0.005007567030436465, "month": -1.214306433183765e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.88194326805373, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 513.5591190981055 | 100 | JackHammer | 1720230353510 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2B3qBoaBU35dvFMt2sYXHVggM4vLiYC6-aK9x9W-MMeDuVA=s96-c | 19 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717572240477}, {"name": "Astronomy", "slug": "astronomy", "groupId": "RmJECKggoxP8lVO7JADZ", "createdTime": 1717572240481}, {"name": "👽 Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1717572240483}, {"name": "🛸 UFO", "slug": "ufo", "groupId": "vH5f3KKDAejaSUPOduOZ", "createdTime": 1717572240484}] | ["science-default", "astronomy", "aliens", "ufo"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720230350234 | 1718360429138 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | isikXj9LuSQBAyGE4F1b | {"NO": 614.6049750912796, "YES": 1627.0613492048014} | 0.2741732649636317 | will-the-daily-reward-for-sharing-a | 1731 | Will the daily reward for sharing a market remain at 10 Mana until the end of the year? | 1735685940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.607504589083039 | False | basic | public | 1717572382382 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Seems quite low now.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the bonus is removed entirely, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.015421645275252471, "month": 0.04093786228774102} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.31532610265511, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | redcat | 1719686259225 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717572382518}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717572382522}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719686256152 | 1717607957300 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | JGpD9hnaCnMZTjuQFtq1 | {"NO": 14.285714285714947, "YES": 699.9999999999649} | 0.020000000000001884 | will-cannibalism-be-widespread-and | 1130.3182062633161 | Will cannibalism be widespread and commonplace by 2027? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717572574099 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A question of personal taste.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.020660966685960527} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.598671675368713, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JackHammer | 1717656605210 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2B3qBoaBU35dvFMt2sYXHVggM4vLiYC6-aK9x9W-MMeDuVA=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | [{"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1717572574252}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717572574251}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1717572574249}] | ["biotech", "public-health", "vegan"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717656602093 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000011 | e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8 | {"NO": 1057.7337773764896, "YES": 945.4174778083693} | 0.5280349023263746 | will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla | 23913.270239419082 | Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.959705324652328 | False | basic | public | 1717572590825 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsNXbcdF5F7.png?alt=media&token=0816aefc-79d9-4108-8716-f8f216a149b8", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDWggWvufDb.png?alt=media&token=124e99f6-4595-4460-a56d-0f11f12ff577", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.2001715541347615, "week": -0.20371681398339447, "month": -0.10267060031934472} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 634.3623939994856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 833.7702965628251 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720225804341 | 0 | 170 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717572590963}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1717572590966}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717572590964}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717572590965}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1717572590974}] | ["wars", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720225801293 | 1719315260583 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | yWBqLgC5gNkW4FvkRKht | {"NO": 1040.8329997330645, "YES": 960.7689228305237} | 1 | daily-coinflip-i1hv5awwb5 | 5556.2707216321205 | Daily coinflip | 1717732740000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570582008203429 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717572594122 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 160)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 81 heads vs 78 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.49} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 108.97643328025214, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717767672938 | 1000 | Traveel | 1717732740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717572594284}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717572594295}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717572595447}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1717572595864}] | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717728552648 | 1717767664490 | 0.52 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8VPRgCFqsjUQeB0cjbtC | tetrabay-prop-bets | 2290.8171111967613 | Tetrabay Prop Bets | 1720220340000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717572684702 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES for things that happen when I'm in the continental US, NO for things that don't happen, and N/A for things that I want to glomarise about.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.795401262913398, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 54.602950517149544 | 1100 | Tetraspace | 1720190525397 | 0 | 10 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5pypglnjgk", "prob": 0.44999999999999996, "text": "Tetra's system gets a new headmate ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 71.59067692990034, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.499716247656, "textFts": "'get':4 'headmat':7 'new':6 'system':3 'tetra':1", "contractId": "8VPRgCFqsjUQeB0cjbtC", "createdTime": 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0.5000000000000006 | SC4ZS48opXMdl0ldkeXb | {"NO": 2590.985104553335, "YES": 385.9535889429181} | 0.8703521877067493 | will-the-playstation-5-pro-or-equiv | 3648.72172478245 | Will the Playstation 5 Pro, or equivalent, be announced in 2024? | 1735689540000 | bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.726247131459203 | False | basic | public | 1717584374789 | Gonçalo M | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Sony announces publicly and officially the 'pro' version of the Playstation 5 console by the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It will NOT resolve to YES if a Playstation 6 is announced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 'pro' version can have any other name as long as it's considered a PS5 upgrade, much like the PS4 Pro.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves to NO if there are no new console announcements.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.027789544331362825, "month": 0.1122973793396772} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.72571261337289, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GoncaloM | 1720054521303 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689968763486 | 0 | [{"name": "Playstation", "slug": "playstation", "groupId": "wAP5W7gO0MtWKUhf4mIQ", "createdTime": 1717584374957}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1717584374964}, {"name": "PS5 Pro", "slug": "ps5-pro", "groupId": "9754ca7e-5d2c-41c7-b8e9-4cd6cf403e15", "createdTime": 1717584374967}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717584374971}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717584374965}] | ["playstation", "video-games", "ps5-pro", "gaming", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720054517916 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | lzQXATsQKEGNF8hM9cA6 | {"NO": 126.9846450478091, "YES": 7874.967872088001} | 0 | uk-general-election-2024-will-the-c | 8783.41975622579 | UK General Election 2024 - Will the Conservative manifesto include a pledge to abolish inheritance tax? | 1718194875028 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863155039441311 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717584976957 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Conservative Party manifesto is likely to be published in early to mid-June - possibly as soon as the start of next week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the manifesto include a commitment to abolish inheritance tax?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A partial abolition or significant reduction (eg. raising the threshold to an enormous figure) will not count, nor will a commitment to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "consider", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " abolishing inheritance tax - it will need to be a clear promise that if the Conservatives win the election they will abolish inheritance tax.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related manifesto questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ri3JWGzlcTjUmMLOs4XT", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-the-l-f9oz2y28df"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "g5v3xQA0nTbfO67W6jZF", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-the-l"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4831020553743888} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 76.57792135759858, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718194875028 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1718194921603 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717584977112}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1717584977123}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717584977111}, {"name": "Tax", "slug": "tax", "groupId": "ifd68EW8txu6x0cNMm3A", "createdTime": 1717584977116}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717584977175}] | ["uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party", "-uk-general-election-2024", "tax", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718179908717 | 1718194920309 | 0.02 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ZcY4vmgILcXZRJYgNbS9 | {"NO": 173.12584231550943, "YES": 57.76145182170852} | 0.7498283652309577 | will-legends-tower-be-taller-than-t | 75 | Will Legends Tower be taller than the One World Trade Center? | 1924991940000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717585341847 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Legends Tower", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legends_Tower", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a proposed supertall skyscraper in Oklahoma City, planned to be the tallest in the US.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if, upon the Legends Tower being completed or construction being halted, the architectural top of the Legends Tower is higher than 546.2 m, and NO if at that point it is not.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.874157684490549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1717691144371 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717585363068 | 1717690781321 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | crd1bQkWUcBknXsq7iWt | {"NO": 52.39809287310848, "YES": 190.84664062520037} | 0.21541306206110628 | will-manifold-have-a-team-in-any-es | 142 | Will Manifold have a team in any esport by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717585346980 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the positive resolution all 4 statements have to be true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "0) the team consists of at least 3 players.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) the team holds the word \"Manifold\" in its name.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) the team participated in 2 different events(tournaments) before the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) the team capitain confirms affiliation with Manifold Markets community.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following scenarios are valid:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... if an existing team is bought and rebranded.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... if a new team is organised.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... if several manifold markets users decide to represent the manifold community.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It does not have to be initiated by manifold crew.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any esport counts: csgo, valorant, rocket league, team fortress, raindow 6 siege, league of legends, dota 2, world of tanks etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upd. 11.06.2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For a tournament to be valid it has to contain only established teams, no randoms/nonames. For example, rocket league has daily online tournaments, where even solo players can participate and be distributed into incomplete team - this will not count as an event.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5480776553020017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KongoLandwalker | 1718474245578 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717585347123}, {"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1717585347154}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "esports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717614501532 | 1718474244571 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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W0JmZa4ScZNXYH3yIuzM | which-is-more-valuable-accomplishme | 0 | What is the highest accomplishment of Dr Fauci? | 1717711140000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717587856450 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717711140781 | lukres | 1717601198512 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | 0.25 | 1717601197367 | ["iz4achdtml"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Delays will extend the timeline of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add more, I will do so as well as I ideate on this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any additions that do not have a clear resolution will be removed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debate is delayed the questions still stand and the resolution date will extend. 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I will base resolutions both on my own judgement and how it is reported in the press.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One important point I will bear in mind is that anybody can misspeak (eg Bush condemning \"the illegal invasion of Iraq\" when he clearly meant Ukraine) but that in the case of misspeaking the speaker usually realises their error and rapidly corrects it. 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0.14 | KewdWBmgsJ2d4WCcUtFt | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-announcing-iliad-theoretical-a | 0 | Will "Announcing ILIAD — Theoretical AI Alignment ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1717614776482 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Announcing ILIAD — Theoretical AI Alignment Conference", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7nBaKy5Ry3JWhnJT/announcing-iliad-theoretical-ai-alignment-conference", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717614776671 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717614776671}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 30rFxbzL6Quk5R5AoSfX | {"NO": 425.92805305704576, "YES": 23.478143616571458} | 1 | will-north-korea-send-more-trash-ba | 538.2609163795879 | Will North Korea send more trash balloons into South Korea before 2025? | 1717867686903 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717616839357 | Arky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "North Korea recently sent over 3,500 balloons filled with trash into South Korea. However, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "they said they will pause the campaign for now", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/north-korea-vows-pause-trash-balloon-campaign-after/story?id=110765093", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This market will resolve YES if there are credible reports of more trash balloons being sent.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3236106096946266} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.884187500326372, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717867686903 | 100 | Arky | 1717867686903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696787160354 | 0 | [{"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1717616839520}, {"name": "Korean Peninsula Conflict", "slug": "korean-peninsula-conflict", "groupId": "1b337267-71a2-4052-b09a-fb1124561d7e", "createdTime": 1717616839524}, {"name": "South Korea", "slug": "south-korea", "groupId": "kV57SoDVhV0XmMPpECLz", "createdTime": 1717616839541}] | ["north-korea", "korean-peninsula-conflict", "south-korea"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717856351648 | 1717867680493 | 0.95 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | BKs8pvqFrwMM6hpbcEuN | {"NO": 383.3790638928921, "YES": 2608.384479438808} | 0.12814484110798138 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-a9vf40coth | 3383.360307310225 | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 120 days of being attacked by them? | 1724039940000 | LuPTAI6V7CXuYdZfRlD8N4G7Qk72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.718693341701705 | False | basic | public | 1717616987085 | Nick Allen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0353556450039888, "month": -0.2668500076600595} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.59196994920296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NickAllenc961 | 1719662059845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXRehhnCBU6ZDuSEv4pLGf0IAFcyQEOOk1kcBpXbkZ=s96-c | 30 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703458959667 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717616987321}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717616987323}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1717616987324}] | ["israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719662056804 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | WSvur74ye9XYDgeWnAhG | {"NO": 581.4941686763998, "YES": 1719.7077010698188} | 0 | will-the-sp-599-stock-index-close-h | 1619.2874632649266 | Will the S&P 599 stock index close higher on June 6 than it closed on June 5? | 1717704120892 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.616557498050415 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717618722580 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5577157865886164} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.77365432225549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717704120892 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717704120892 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717618722806}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717618722845}, {"name": "NASDAQ", "slug": "nasdaq", "groupId": "d3aaa6d9-84fa-42e5-9053-690f91a51220", "createdTime": 1717618722846}] | ["finance", "stocks", "nasdaq"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717699494876 | 0.25 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2hCOFf7W1fk0ehBgT30s | {"NO": 31.448545101657587, "YES": 317.9797338056475} | 0 | manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return-7e6e94e0hy | 11753.66771271294 | Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible | 1720216740000 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717619635800 | Niel S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have placed No limit orders at 10%. If you are interested in this lottery, you can purchase as many Yes shares at 10% as you wish, provided my No limit orders do not run out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How the lottery will be decided:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll a number from 1 to 12 using FairlyRandom at market close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the number rolled is 1, the market resolves as Yes. (All Yes buyers receive 10x return on their investment)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the number rolled is not 1, the market resolves as No. (All Yes buyers get nothing)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes after 30 days or after enough individuals have bought lottery tickets by purchasing Yes shares so i don't lose on subsidising this market, whichever comes first", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.08461401943103056, "week": -0.08461401943103056, "month": -0.08513091471751816} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.4026343200582, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 1720244761472 | 100 | NielS | 1720216740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | 34 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710643823998 | 0 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1717619635995}, {"name": "Lotteries", "slug": "lotteries", "groupId": "MdqNUtni6p3Jc1R0WvBL", "createdTime": 1717619635989}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717619636045}] | ["gambling", "lotteries", "fairlyrandom"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720211630684 | 1720244732497 | 0.09 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 69ft1ePbWBTtcZGINh3F | {"NO": 820.2346942446957, "YES": 1219.1632553666113} | 0.402194527262826 | will-3-or-more-idaho-libraries-will | 1315 | Will 3 or more Idaho libraries transition to "Adults Only" in 2024? | 1735718340000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576440240577156 | False | basic | public | 1717619821680 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Idaho Childrens Library and Protection Act allows anyone to challenge books in public libraries that they deem \"harmful to minors\", which is broadly defined. The law includes a private cause of action, where individuals can sue libraries for $250 if they fail to relocate challenged materials to an adult-only area within 60 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This law has created significant challenges for small libraries like the Donnelly Public Library, which lacks the space to create a separate adult-only section. As a result, some libraries like Donnelly have resorted to making their entire library adults-only, severely restricting access for children and families.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if 3 or more public libraries located in Idaho temporarily or permanently restrict their collections to legal adults. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.14198109501082512} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.46581768634024, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719146447242 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717619821971}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717619821982}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717619821986}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717619821981}, {"name": "Idaho", "slug": "idaho", "groupId": "0546fde2-60b5-4177-bf71-04e0e872bdfd", "createdTime": 1717619821995}] | ["science-default", "technology-default", "economics-default", "us-politics", "idaho"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719146444173 | 1717989183265 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. 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GXgP3T7MEAXS38fBsap7 | will-the-tontine-surviving-player-c-a812w8w9q8 | 3390.515303357919 | Will the Tontine surviving player count be 223 (1/32) or less as of the indicated date? | 1727755140000 | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717629098518 | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://tontine.cash/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tontine.cash/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2024-6-5, 250 players remain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each choice in this market resolves YES if the living count is 223 (1/32, 5 half-lives) or less as of 12:05 AM EST on its labelled date, and NO if the living count is 224 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 223 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason. I reserve the right to extend the closing time and add new choices if I judge it necessary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "3e1f7ade-835c-4ddb-b143-558e89b3eb57", "url": "https://tontine.cash/", "image": "https://tontine.cash/social/sharecard-facebook.png", "title": "Tontine", "inputKey": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": "Tontine: everybody buys in, and the last person alive takes the pot. 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0.5000000000000001 | JugbZf7sEzBIAKB2lFXa | {"NO": 3000.0000000000023, "YES": 333.33333333333366} | 0.9 | will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark-mzi7gnlmv3 | 2032.954173104238 | Will Lorxus, the author of this market, survive SERI MATS 2024 in Tontine? | 1724644740000 | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.744877240650233 | False | basic | public | 1717629594972 | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://tontine.cash/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tontine.cash/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-6-25, 250 players remain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves YES if Lorxus, a currently surviving player in the Tontine, continues to survive until end of the SERI MATS 2024 Summer Run in Berkeley and returns home safely to Fox City on the East Coast of the US, and NO if they lose the game at any point before then, due to forgetting, user error, and/or failure of any safeguards. It resolves N/A if the game is canceled for any reason, and YES if Lorxus intentionally technically loses Tontine as part of a negotiated agreement in which they receive their accepted allotment of the final split. If Lorxus stays in Berkeley temporarily past the end of SERI MATS, the market will only resolve when Lorxus finally returns home. If Lorxus for some reason has to stay in Berkeley indefinitely, the market will resolve NO at the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to extend the closing time as necessary and to make good-faith modifications to resolve criteria and good-faith judgement calls about edge cases.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "78403f93-52dc-4e8d-929b-2125b79a7374", "url": "https://tontine.cash/", "image": "https://tontine.cash/social/sharecard-facebook.png", "title": "Tontine", "inputKey": "create marketWill Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?AUoMJogcVIv6ceH4D8WG2mbh3A1ZXsAE6pUOqSFE5f41adab-2c81-48e4-b285-495b00440554", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Tontine: everybody buys in, and the last person alive takes the pot. Log in every day to confirm you’re still alive.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1398150859485192} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.9541731042358, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorxus | 1718980919317 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678631188381 | 0 | [{"name": "Tontine Prophecy", "slug": "tontine-prophecy", "groupId": "AUoMJogcVIv6ceH4D8WG", "createdTime": 1717629595205}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717629595212}, {"name": "SERI MATS 2024", "slug": "seri-mats-2024", "groupId": "05293cb4-1d7a-4792-9780-612a6813b172", "createdTime": 1717629595215}, {"name": "V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting", "slug": "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population", "groupId": "2mbh3A1ZXsAE6pUOqSFE", "createdTime": 1717629595238}] | ["tontine-prophecy", "ai-safety", "seri-mats-2024", "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718955881864 | 1718980918098 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | GZbuTqhzEVQXIpX47spa | {"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677} | 0.3931377340057284 | will-lorxus-attend-the-iliad-unconf | 25 | Will Lorxus attend the ILIAD Unconference? | 1724990340000 | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717630169253 | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7nBaKy5Ry3JWhnJT/announcing-iliad-theoretical-ai-alignment-conference", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7nBaKy5Ry3JWhnJT/announcing-iliad-theoretical-ai-alignment-conference", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lorxus would like to meet lots of smart cool researchers at ILIAD so that ey can show those researchers all of eir shiny research results and cool objects and mathematical insight and maybe even get to work with them. Unfortunately, Lorxus, who is participating in the summer 2024 run of SERI MATS, has not yet been accepted to ILIAD, and also technically does not have housing at Lighthaven for the few days after the end of MATS and before the beginning of ILIAD.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if Lorxus is alive, cogent, and physically located anywhere in Berkeley within a 100 yard radius of the three people ey mentioned wanting to talk to in eir application during the time that ILIAD will occur, and otherwise will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lorxus politely requests that any ~do-operation interventions resulting from your seeing this market be significantly causally upstream of em, and that they be ones likely to make the market resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Lorxus | 1717630375359 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678631188381 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717630169501}, {"name": "V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting", "slug": "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population", "groupId": "2mbh3A1ZXsAE6pUOqSFE", "createdTime": 1717630169523}] | ["ai-safety", "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717630184859 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | LTrf6y32q6OXD2tjhtjd | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | test-question1-9jjwpesztk | 0 | TEST question1 | 1717635560329 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717630473493 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test paragaph100", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717635560329 | 1000 | Blomfilter | 1717635560329 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677201572009 | True | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717630473869}] | ["programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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8sBbblQ7PJBJasGhJQJa | magill-tard-fight-what-proportion-o | 11224.190371599167 | Magill Tard Fight: What proportion of new gc members will actually participate (say something even once)? | 1718175179943 | dNDRBKODs0SA7nmcHz9IHJCcNLz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.336628881733866 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1717644874912 | 8hqw | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: STOP THE COUNT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m no longer in a position to accurately resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Don’t throw your mana at this.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " I’m figuring out how to return it to you. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(What was the actual proportion? Guestimate: 10%–25%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "———————", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You maniacs. You blew it up. God damn you all to hell.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The state of things: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The group chat is beyond cooked. New people keep chain migrating in, we have an absentee admin, and we can’t prune back the list with soft blocks anymore. All we can do is keep adding new members to hasten its demise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Magill Tard Fight: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "How many of these new chat members will even participate? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• New members", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " means everyone since Wiki, inclusive. See below.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• Participation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " means saying something at least once. Reacts don’t count ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "but this does.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/eriktorenberg/status/1798553219150569540?s=46&t=gcdKnObL8BaFoJiMdIdglQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• Chat members have insider knowledge, but outsiders are welcome to yolo into this. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• Closes in a week. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(This is baby’s first market, so I might have set up the options wrong. If I screw this up in a way where I can’t get the mana to the right people, I’ll give it back or whatever’s customary. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "I’m not participating in the bet and have no stake in the outcome.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "————", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "New members: who counts?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This only goes for Twitter accounts run by actual individuals, which excludes most of Constantine’s shit adds. 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7foUpkpg3WTbMqVV2crK | will-most-women-accept-payment-for | 0 | Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026? | 1767333540000 | siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717656708086 | AMB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It seems like the dating world is looking more and more like the CEOs in Mike Judge's Idiocracy every day. But we could also avoid that future (or the even worse timeline stemming from VIP e-girl culture depicted in Cloud Atlas) if women fully and individually control their content and sex work. The sex work future in Idiocracy, and the gender war dystopia in Cloud Atlas, are both simply defined by the fact that managers/pimps never stopped existing in said timelines. And that this reflects the inevitability of the patriarchy. So the question is, will we fully avoid both of those timelines within the next two years? Will the patriarchy be utterly destroyed? Will most women perform sex work, and will they fully manage their own sex work, in another year and a half?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Eyeamb | 1717791969155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c | 47 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711991197371 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717656708385}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1717656708381}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 1717656708384}] | ["culture-default", "futurism", "sex"] | 0.25 | 1717791967815 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | ivNSRo14QmFo0D6YctD0 | {"NO": 10.050378152592074, "YES": 994.9874371066164} | 0 | will-trump-announce-his-vp-pick-dur | 2933.1311630951022 | Will Trump announce his VP pick during the June 27th debate? | 1719546987507 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717657288586 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if and only if Donald Trump announces his VP pick during a debate between him and Biden on June 27th. If the debate starts on that day in the time zone of any area within any US state, it will count. If no debate occurs on that date, or if a VP pick is announced during that date but not during that debate, or if his VP pick is announced in a social media post during the debate, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes. Only Donald Trump himself, in person, stating his VP pick verbally, or confirming when asked if a specific person is his VP pick during the debate itself will be sufficient to resolve this market to yes. Donald Trump announcing his VP pick before the debate is sufficient to immediately resolve this market to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.74551768638238, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719546987507 | 100 | Mana | 1719546987507 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717657288743}, {"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1717657288753}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717657288757}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717657288747}] | ["donald-trump", "trump-vp", "debate", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719546981817 | 1719546805256 | 0.01 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | QIeB7XnmtsuRd8RJo93b | {"NO": 845.9419501089333, "YES": 11.821142099303984} | 1 | short-fuse-voter-turnout-in-the-net | 937.8885810082405 | [Short Fuse] Voter turnout in The Netherlands for the European Parliament elections will be at least as high as in 2019. | 1717706306310 | 108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717659940015 | Marnix Vreugdenhil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve 'YES' if voter turnout in the Netherlands is at least 42%*", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.ipsos.com/nl-nl/slotpeiling-ipsos-io-europese-verkiezingen-pvv-en-gl-pvda-nog-steeds-gelijk-aan-kop#:~:text=Effecten%20van%20de%20opkomst,heeft%20effect%20op%20de%20uitslag", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ipsos.com/nl-nl/slotpeiling-ipsos-io-europese-verkiezingen-pvv-en-gl-pvda-nog-steeds-gelijk-aan-kop#:~:text=Effecten%20van%20de%20opkomst,heeft%20effect%20op%20de%20uitslag", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.757685265969901, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717706306310 | 100 | MarnixVreugdenhil | 1717706306310 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703774351876 | 0 | [{"name": "European Elections", "slug": "european-elections", "groupId": "6091a62e-fa6b-43ec-b403-5de478cdb41e", "createdTime": 1717659940160}, {"name": "Dutch politics", "slug": "dutch-politics", "groupId": "cdb1cd7d-eb22-40c2-889a-a9239dbacb23", "createdTime": 1717659940166}, {"name": "2024 European Parliament elections (EP2024)", "slug": "ep2024", "groupId": "b9a09c80-9aab-476c-8968-8c959608b10f", "createdTime": 1717659940165}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717659940167}, {"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1717659940163}] | ["european-elections", "dutch-politics", "ep2024", "politics-default", "the-netherlands"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717699292704 | 0.99 | 108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg | in-the-first-event-when-ai-kills-at | 5136.095549453235 | In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed? | 2209071540000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.4295573131591155 | False | plus | public | 1717662402898 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Intentional Killing:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The deaths must be intentional, to the best of our judgment. Incidental or unintended consequences of AI actions, such as side effects from a drug developed by AI, do not qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Event Definition:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The event may have long-lasting effects, but it must originate from a more or less instantaneous and well-defined initial action by the AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The event can span a longer timeframe if the initial AI action directly leads to the deaths over time (e.g., an AI-initiated blackmailing campaign resulting in deaths occurring up to a year after the initial action).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The numbers are given in millions (M). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If human population is less than 1 billion by the time the event happens and AI kills everyone, then, among 2 potentially qualifying options, the option “All of humanity” will qualify. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve N/A if the event does not happen by 2040. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This description may be changed if I can see that there is substantial confusion or ambiguity with the existing description. Generally, in ambiguous cases I will rather resolve YES than NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 108.83179365507632, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718408265375 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "njmmgcvslm", "prob": 0.4168703061891371, "text": "0.001M-0.1M", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2100.232720894998, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2937.8635160245653, "textFts": "'-0.1':3 '0.001':1 'm':2,4", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04913172472681193, "week": -0.07849322018013999, "month": 0.2519510390640065}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04913172472681193, "probChangeWeek": -0.07849322018013999, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.2519510390640065}, {"id": "de7qoycsf9", "prob": 0.13320485822981643, "text": "0.1M-10M", "index": 1, "poolNo": 829.8732461721322, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5400.179149817539, "textFts": "'0.1':1 '10m':4 'm':3 'm-10m':2", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": 0.011833339986677321, "week": 0.02071114326589918, "month": -0.033883594642778236}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.011833339986677321, "probChangeWeek": 0.02071114326589918, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.033883594642778236}, {"id": "g70q00drpv", "prob": 0.12668075179867833, "text": "10M-1000M", "index": 2, "poolNo": 806.260538885176, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5558.246518718091, "textFts": "'1000m':3 '10m':2 '10m-1000m':1", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": 0.011102091975423764, "week": 0.01717333620894504, "month": -0.040381527091416125}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.011102091975423764, "probChangeWeek": 0.01717333620894504, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.040381527091416125}, {"id": "2rkmec4yuj", "prob": 0.13856289272141206, "text": ">1000M but not all of humanity", "index": 3, "poolNo": 923.0551043641832, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5738.577647631213, "textFts": "'1000m':1 'human':6", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": 0.01149661411767594, "week": 0.017826447037694204, "month": -0.028511629057701243}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.01149661411767594, "probChangeWeek": 0.017826447037694204, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.028511629057701243}, {"id": "k85xkdp5lp", "prob": 0.08634299380162097, "text": "All of humanity", "index": 4, "poolNo": 650.7442698211516, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6885.990804668874, "textFts": "'human':3", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": 0.006713592383260941, "week": 0.010410705812672616, "month": -0.08056192343050092}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.006713592383260941, "probChangeWeek": 0.010410705812672616, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.08056192343050092}, {"id": "7m18aogcdo", "prob": 0.09833819725933518, "text": "Other", "index": 5, "poolNo": 699.057039408012, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6409.645976211394, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YuUohD0RPHlNUoi5MDfg", "createdTime": 1717662402899, "probChanges": {"day": 0.007986086263774117, "week": 0.012371587854929034, "month": -0.06861236484160983}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.007986086263774117, "probChangeWeek": 0.012371587854929034, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.06861236484160983}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717662403077}, {"name": "AI risk", "slug": "ai-risk", "groupId": "KIhsoJW7X87JwWSgB3Vt", "createdTime": 1717662403085}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717662403081}] | ["ai", "ai-risk", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 1718408262200 | 1717708514154 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5321313246149434 | Do3JB4Xnd87AlCz1JxjE | {"NO": 1712.6274124651168, "YES": 1324.6556112129515} | 0.5952179438848246 | will-alphatom-reach-2100-elo-in-bul | 403 | Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.170620385680138 | False | basic | public | 1717664653430 | nic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If AlphaTom (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://lichess.org/@/AlphaTom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lichess.org/@/AlphaTom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") reaches 2100 ELO at any point in 2024 this question resolves YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 0.09521794388482463} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.853730768571232, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | nic_kup | 1717968757984 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640787423776 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1717664653575}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717968754872 | 1717674494362 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | n6cvLko4VvYexleT1D38 | {"NO": 199.99999999999994, "YES": 50.00000000000002} | 0.8 | will-scars-go-live-today | 1291.5723836260977 | will scars go live today? | 1720290540000 | K7kKl2hkOPffLZLlL4MTKkvo0ni2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717668678630 | jayse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.29519164074461623, "month": 0.30000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.230238902693905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | fettyluciano | 1719916311415 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717667684135 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717668679270}] | ["stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719899647316 | 1719916310457 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | uv0mYI8V8jObViCzqlOL | {"NO": 11.914185376858711, "YES": 839.3356057245301} | 0 | will-flight-dl257-be-delayed-by-30 | 834.2738582879502 | Will flight DL257 be delayed by 30 minutes or more? | 1717883940000 | JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717669010828 | Sylvie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL257", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL257", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.365538268322261, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718688599830 | 100 | sylv | 1717883940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645008108574 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717878087473 | 1717976448313 | 0.01 | JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG | {"NO": 17463.27526965257, "YES": 57.26302681248944} | 1 | will-starship-ift4-survive-past-the | 47588.65946701837 | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading] | 1717682248721 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.822132295000532 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717671168293 | Chris Billington | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves identically to:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv", "label": "/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Remains open during the flight for live trading.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has only Basic subsidy.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 434.11954130365484, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717682248721 | 1000 | chrisjbillington | 1717682248721 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671703032816 | 0 | [{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717671168437}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717671168438}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717671168442}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717671168448}] | ["starship-launch-party", "rockets", "spacex", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717682240889 | 1717682098120 | 0.99 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | gFvQxzR1JPSjQK3dhhok | {"NO": 120.09250998466348, "YES": 83.26913977630299} | 0 | will-tatum-and-brown-each-score-20 | 256.8947801786867 | Will Tatum and Brown each score 20 points (or more) for Boston Celtics in Game 1 of NBA finals? | 1717728566723 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717672396098 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.261191251568574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717728566723 | 100 | Bruce54df | 1717728566723 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1717672396233}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1717672396238}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1717672396254}] | ["basketball", "nba-playoffs", "nba"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717726380735 | 0.59 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | dVzTwJWK5U7fclT7XChz | {"NO": 6190.648910366125, "YES": 161.53395459489275} | 1 | will-the-boeing-starliner-abort-the | 19180.627274681454 | Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems? | 1718377022349 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87822688876145 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717673148288 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Boeing Starliner, which has been plauged with failures since its inception, had two additional helium leaks occur during the evening of June 5, hours after launch into orbit. Engineers spent the night troubleshooting the issue, and were only able to determine that the vehicle was \"safe for now.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the capsule returns to Earth earlier or later than scheduled for any reason other than weather or ISS logistics, if the astronauts return to Earth by some other method, or if one of the astronauts is injured or killed by the Starliner. Otherwise, it will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 276.32273051247495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718377022349 | 1000 | SteveSokolowski | 1718377022349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 54 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717673148429}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717673148430}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717673148436}, {"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1717856936572}] | ["technology-default", "science-default", "space", "starliner"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718374636935 | 1718377011885 | 0.97 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | 0 |
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