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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | GX6ddmamuRUYjlqcAH0u | {"NO": 50.56878041927121, "YES": 197.75046811667042} | 0.2036442229807727 | will-21e8-ltd-ship-any-product-by-j | 100 | Will 21e8, Ltd, ship any product by June 5, 2025? | 1749178740000 | 26xELvRW4TN9RBynK36SZfXQf9M2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717677898662 | Thiago Coelho | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Date picked as 1 year from this tweet: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/21e8ltd/status/1798512530064912880", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/21e8ltd/status/1798512530064912880", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Shipping a product\" means that they openly sell, or give out, some good or service to general consumers, or at least one publicly traded business discloses having commercial relations with them. Having social media accounts does not count, so as of June 6, 2024, 21e8 has not shipped any products.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.29635577701922733} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2495318833295714, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | thiagovscoelho | 1717812259014 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLJnCXlV0KkEjMy4SM0jdBXa81Hej3xEKQJZatRzNVXMyI=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704301516109 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717677898915}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717811755800 | 1717812258026 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | 0juNMT8quITp981X6a7Z | {"NO": 225.7082079419029, "YES": 44.30499046172927} | 1 | will-i-get-at-least-1-win-at-the-mt | 203.97121417826023 | Will I get at least 1 win at the MTG prerelease party on June 8th? | 1717797540000 | 7HquJmzgMBSQAwiDETZ2qlmCFqU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717680986919 | Yehor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am a beginner player, who knows the mechanics and has ~30 hours in MTG: Arena (online version of the game). I played draft ones before this over the board, and this prerelease will be my second OTB event.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The event is 5 rounds with BO3 format, a win is considered when I win an entire round(BO3) versus an opponent.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.90922324066192, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717856405461 | 100 | yehor | 1717797540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLp4PxOznAw-TOQcR7Kqbe8qS7xrPI-NkdF7zbyqSXdIOA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699297395405 | 0 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1717680987092}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717680987090}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1717680987114}] | ["magic-the-gathering", "personal-goals", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717781389127 | 1717856395772 | 0.84 | 7HquJmzgMBSQAwiDETZ2qlmCFqU2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | F84e1fa3nCadAViERJwQ | {"NO": 119.95934270593109, "YES": 83.36157713463015} | 0.5899999999999999 | will-the-technological-singularity | 252.3950654230324 | Will the technological singularity occur before Yandere Simulator is finished? | 33292587540000 | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717682780322 | AhmedButCooler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yandere Simulator", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yandere_Simulator", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a video game that has been under development since 2014 and is being worked on by developer YandereDev. The game is structured in a series of \"rivals\" (nonplayable adverseries in the game). The final game is planned to include ten rivals. As of June 2024, the latest published build of Yandere Simulator includes two rivals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For technological singularity to be considered to have occured, see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this other market of a similar nature", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-germany-give-up-paper-correspo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For Yandere Simulator to be considered finished, a game containing ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at least eight rivals", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " must be published and must clearly be marked as finished by YandereDev. In addition, the two already published rivals must be included in the game, and the entire game must have around the same (or higher) quality of gameplay as the latest build that contains two characters (as of June 2024).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following points describe how this market could resolve YES or NO without either the technological singularity happening or Yandere Simulator being finished:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, the technological singularity will be assumed to eventually occur, so if any of the following events (that indicate that the game is likely to be never finished) happen, the market will resolve YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YandereDev says he will permanently stop working on the game, and he says nothing that contradicts this for two years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YandereDev dies according to a reputable source, and no person is announced to be officially responsible for the project for two years (If a new person ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "does", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " become responsible for the project, replace YandereDev in this market description with the new developer to get the updated criteria).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YandereDev stops giving any updates on the game for five years.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If YandereDev becomes immortal by any means (including uploading his brain into a computer or similar) before the technological singularity happens, this market will resolve YES if neither Yandere Simulator is finished nor has the technological singularity occurred by EOY 3024.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YandereDev Blog", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://yanderedev.wordpress.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08999999999999986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.575046475711423, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AhmedButCooler | 1718023040046 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714851175704 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1717682780563}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717682780562}, {"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d2a-ce2e-4905-ac9b-112007e62b30", "createdTime": 1717682780561}] | ["video-games", "technology-default", "artificial-intelligence"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717835026133 | 1717687295279 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7839513094796279 | Rl9Ml46y0qvnMqOryIkZ | {"NO": 13903.52134029181, "YES": 8901.244066108437} | 0.8500246247855621 | will-the-5th-starship-test-survive | 19377.275503292563 | Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry? | 1735707540000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.636378403085725 | False | plus | public | 1717682943083 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Starship descends through 25km altitude without exploding, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Exploding\" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself, that does not matter for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If telemetry is lost and it can't be confirmed whether Starship descended through 25km, then it will be presumed that it did not. I.e. YES resolution requires confirmation that it descended through 25km altitude without exploding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading on this question may be closed/paused just before or during the flight, at my discretion (with the goal of allowing a bigger subsidy on non-live trading instead of live trading).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.35002462478556207} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 206.01973341496293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | jack | 1719111601850 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | [{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717682943240}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717682943247}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717682943248}] | ["starship-launch-party", "rockets", "spacex"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719111598795 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA | how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2 | 109208.19408894722 | How many hits after 30 days? V2 | 1720174324444 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717683276847 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the next 30 days i will ask ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " every day twice for a number 1-80 every time the bot rolls a Number 1-62 it is a hit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is V2 of this market last Time 52 hits won", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Base/how-many-hits-after-30-days", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/how-many-hits-after-30-days", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 06.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 06.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 07.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 07.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 08.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 08.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 09.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 09.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 10.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 10.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 11.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 11.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 12.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 12.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 13.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 13.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 14.05.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 14.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 15.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 15.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 16.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 16.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 17.06.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 17.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 18.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 18.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 19.06.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 19.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 20.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 20.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 21.06.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 21.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 22.06.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 22.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 23.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 23.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 24.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 24.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 25.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 25.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 26.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 26.06.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 27.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 27.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 28.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 28.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 29.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 29.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 30.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 30.06.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 01.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 01.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 02.07.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 02.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 03.07.2024 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 03.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 04.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 04.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) 05.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) 05.07.2024 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "✔ = hit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "❌ = no hit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total hits:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "53 out of 60", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in total i will ask ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 60 times", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | 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0.5000000000000003 | yICG9wEfnAf8vLqJKwIb | {"NO": 2189.252693267324, "YES": 456.77687325694876} | 0.827372725144204 | will-there-be-a-3rd-manifest-confer | 4824.656957438354 | Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.794812405785095 | False | basic | public | 1717708793922 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NA or 50% if they run another in 2024 instead", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.327372725144204} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.20330202143579, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719367610932 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717708806582}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717708808524}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717708811959}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1717708815439}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest", "manifest-2024", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719367607895 | 1718207599883 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0648214302630283 | NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII | {"NO": 10060.318799121136, "YES": 3782.959482483706} | 0.1556431911378012 | will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr | 34084.155428181555 | Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.027905880112597 | False | plus | public | 1717708809692 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a personal insurance market!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An injury must be more serious than minor scrapes to resolve YES. Requires a fracture or a large amount of scrapes that take a while to heal.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I ride my electric unicycle to work every day (which is a 3-4 minute trip since it's close), and to other nearby places like restaurants.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I haven't had any accidents in the ~8 months I've had it so far.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despite that, the base rate for accidents seems somewhat high given the traffic. I did fall from my electric skateboard last year and broke my collar bone.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01563644428035396, "month": -0.34435680886219877} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 352.33542230188834, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | JamesGrugett | 1719893089300 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1717708809839}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1717708809851}] | ["insurance", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719893085555 | 1718074615192 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7206116140544896 | 4AqN3rOEJE37BoNML2vC | {"NO": 2.121197688268694, "YES": 10639.347092532045} | 0 | will-gme-reach-75-before-the-end-of | 13012.485031051758 | Will GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024 | 1719616114632 | 7Bj5HMJ0odhpaAOakIX7ZuiHx9x2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.409414866300335 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717709123394 | Nav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves to YES if GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Includes pre and after hours trading ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closed at $46.55 on June 6th.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 230.15676177906633, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719616114632 | 1000 | navitron32 | 1719616114632 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690944834818 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717709123641}, {"name": "⬆️Stonks", "slug": "stonks", "groupId": "e9b7496b-92b1-44ce-a977-90692f868bbd", "createdTime": 1717709123647}, {"name": "GME", "slug": "gme", "groupId": "d9f6f987-c98c-4ace-b2a2-0d67c356a59a", "createdTime": 1717709123646}] | ["stocks", "stonks", "gme"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719615931209 | 1718823572899 | 0 | 7Bj5HMJ0odhpaAOakIX7ZuiHx9x2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | LxceRCDNAljAVrybmuph | {"NO": 104.52373005904974, "YES": 9567.205451193342} | 0 | will-gamestop-gme-hit-70-during-tra | 18729.22332021246 | Will GameStop ($GME) hit $70 during trading on Friday June 7th? | 1717817876249 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.851893450662434 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717726843740 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's being reported that Roaring Kitty's options position will be worth $1B if the stock hits $70. He has a livestream scheduled for Noon eastern.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It closed Thursday at $46.55 but traded up to $65 after hours.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will the stock hit a high mark of $70 during trading hours Friday?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/gamestop-shares-surge-47-roaring-kitty-announces-june-7-livestream", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/gamestop-shares-surge-47-roaring-kitty-announces-june-7-livestream", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FeDD95YdjSA.17?alt=media&token=b23683c9-20e8-4085-9c1d-adc0be8acd4d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 207.10353662476615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717817876249 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1717817910829 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "GameStop", "slug": "gamestop", "groupId": "78d8b01a-e8db-47d6-842d-15b55f52904b", "createdTime": 1717726843886}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717726843894}] | ["gamestop", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717807678921 | 1717817909746 | 0.01 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5099468567878014 | rFCd2cbiQhCBDxNFTcQ6 | {"NO": 985808.5294018972, "YES": 1011943.4023005331} | 0 | the-crystal-coin-flip | 485528.10175442183 | The Crystal Coin Flip | 1717988545710 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.03852288843949568 | True | crystal | NO | public | 1717732694682 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Live at Manifest, we will flip a coin on Sunday evening. Heads resolves yes, Tails resolves no. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7103.473489144252, "platformFee": 6103.473489144252, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717988594618 | 1000000 | case | 1718698442076 | 0 | 192 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717732695970}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1717732696285}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717741959107}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717868065502}] | ["nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717988543218 | 1718698440959 | 0.5 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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m0PcAtnsnTvAduQu6pez | if-i-run-my-big-experiment-on-how-d | 1941.653204330282 | If I run my big experiment on how death salience affects political views, what will be the result? | 1718373540000 | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717734268387 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ane existing literature proposes that the salience of death may affect stated political views- e.g. seeing a dead body on social media might make you more likely to give conservative answers about same-sex marriage. The status of this literature after the replication crisis is unclear. Many existing studies are underpowered. The internet, however, makes it relatively cheap to run big experiments. 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In group 2, participants will complete the same set of questions but in reverse order- political questions before death-related questions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary dependent variable will be a 0 to 10 self-report scale of left-right affiliation. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "there is a difference of at least a sixth of a standard deviation between the two groups, the question will resolve in favour of the appropriate option. Given the sample size, such a difference will be greatly statistically significant (P=<0.001). On the other hand, if there is a difference of less than a sixth of a standard deviation (a difference I judge below the threshold of practical significance), the question will resolve as per the appropriate option ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "even if the difference is statistically significant", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are a number of other significant hypotheses in this area- e.g. that death is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "polarising", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and can drive individuals both left and right. I will be testing these hypotheses as well, but this will not affect the resolution of this question, which is concerned only with the effect of the experimental manipulation on the results.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given the cost of the experiment, I will be consulting with people with knowledge of the area before running the experiment and will aim at something of an adversarial collaboration- taking on advice from both sceptics and believers in the relevant phenomenon.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.95223809434805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PhilosophyBear | 1718348988671 | 0 | 23 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "o3wxzkz42a", "prob": 0.19303843734000448, "text": "Death salience will move people to the political right", "index": 0, "poolNo": 172.92209111181515, "userId": "91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 722.8688896618336, "textFts": "'death':1 'move':4 'peopl':5 'polit':8 'right':9 'salienc':2", "contractId": "m0PcAtnsnTvAduQu6pez", "createdTime": 1717734268387, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.02984995164986648, "month": -0.11332467170434601}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.02984995164986648, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.11332467170434601}, {"id": "6ngsna4c1h", "prob": 0.07943985750794387, "text": "Death salience will move people to the political left", "index": 1, "poolNo": 103.85996002310509, "userId": "91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1203.5436945305205, "textFts": "'death':1 'left':9 'move':4 'peopl':5 'polit':8 'salienc':2", "contractId": "m0PcAtnsnTvAduQu6pez", "createdTime": 1717734268387, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.044574152029906555, "month": -0.24524473070933167}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.044574152029906555, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.24524473070933167}, {"id": "ggvlm4mkuw", "prob": 0.7275217051520516, "text": "Death salience will have no effect or an effect of less than <1/6 of a standard deviation", "index": 2, "poolNo": 577.7128498010599, "userId": "91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 216.37046855205813, "textFts": "'1/6':13 'death':1 'deviat':17 'effect':6,9 'less':11 'salienc':2 'standard':16", "contractId": "m0PcAtnsnTvAduQu6pez", "createdTime": 1717734268387, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.014724200380040187, "month": 0.3585694024136778}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.014724200380040187, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.3585694024136778}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | [{"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1717734268550}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717734268559}, {"name": "Experiments", "slug": "experiments", "groupId": "e8c9f064-4023-44da-99ed-cc4b46737fae", "createdTime": 1717734268563}] | ["psychology", "politics-default", "experiments"] | 0.25 | 1718348985605 | 1717818208531 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LNU86WgJa07jlQ0Zbo4V | which-team-will-win-the-deadman-all | 4092.619162171592 | Which team will win the deadman allstars tournament? | 1719064800000 | oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | pkn6w2ek3j | public | 1717735977632 | noney | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A week-long deadman mode like tournament is being hosted between popular community figures, six groups with five members each from the 14/6 to the 21/6.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Drafts have been chosen and they're like so", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FY-b22BOEtR.jpg?alt=media&token=f3a4096b-bacc-4e60-afe6-50987b517d64", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet on which team you think will win.", "type": "text"}]}]} | 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Debt", "slug": "national-debt", "groupId": "f1b14c48-3f81-44f5-b739-1c6a9c27d38e", "createdTime": 1717737604125}] | ["inflation", "economics-default", "gdp", "debt-ceiling", "national-debt"] | 0.25 | 1717823026081 | 1717739537368 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | m1f4b3ut5vsMypT2L79S | {"NO": 43.643578047198474, "YES": 229.12878474779205} | 1 | snake-eyes-paradox-game | 144.06919374628828 | Snake Eyes Paradox Game | 1718427540000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717738985131 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj", "label": "/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here you will be playing a game based on the one in that market, or rather, your NO shares will be. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this market closes, I will use ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " to generate a random number between 1 and 6 (I'm using a 1/6 chance rather than a 1/36 chance because I don't want the game to go on forever and require me to make 36 markets in expectation). If the number is 1, the game ends and the market resolves YES. Otherwise, the market resolves NO, and the game continues.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the game continues, I will create a new market with the same resolution criteria as this one for Round 2 of the game, but I will not close that market until the total number of NO shares in it is at least equal to the total number of NO shares in this one. If that one resolves NO, I will create a third round, which will not end until the total number of NO shares is at least equal to sum of all NO shares in the previous two rounds. This continues on: Every time the market for a round resolves NO, I will create another one with the same resolution criteria, except that it will only be resolved once the total number of NO shares is equal to the sum of those for all previous rounds. The game ends once one round resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This situation is the same as the Snake Eyes game described in the linked market, except that the people who survive or die are replaced by your NO shares, which can either cash out for Ṁ1 or become worthless, plus a few other changes that don't affect the conclusion. On the one hand, this market, and all the markets for future rounds, have a 5/6 chance of resolving NO, so it would seem that NO shares have a value of Ṁ5/6, and thus you should bet the probability down to 1/6. On the other hand, less than half of the total NO shares in this market and the future markets will actually cash out. This implies that if, after the fact, someone were to offer you the value of a randomly chosen NO share from the game, this would actually be worth <Ṁ1/2. So, if you think the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox is 1/36, you should bet this market down to 1/6, but if you think it's >1/2, perhaps you should bet this market up to 1/2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: Every time I refer to NO shares here, I am referring to shares held when the market resolves. If you buy NO shares and then sell them, they don't count towards the total.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7521439186888723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718428695578 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1718605245160 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717738985406}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1717738985483}, {"name": "probability", "slug": "probability", "groupId": "6801b495-7a44-40b3-b717-0fb4536c25b6", "createdTime": 1717738985484}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1717738985496}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718605245160}] | ["fairlyrandom", "mathematics", "probability", "paradox", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1718334606911 | 1718428763487 | 0.16 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4cEjn63SZzk3S28fPDar | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | snake-eyes-round-2-placeholder | 0 | [Placeholder 1] | 1750139100000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739086068 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unknown what this market will be", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1718641329606 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | V0hzLcg9Hf0i9B61I5XB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | snake-eyes-round-3-placeholder | 0 | [Placeholder 2] | 1750139100000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739113121 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder market - If Snake Eyes goes to a Round 3, I'll use this one, otherwise I'll turn it into something else.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1718641373492 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | JxVRyf4GXT7daogJB89L | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | snake-eyes-round-4-placeholder | 0 | Snake Eyes Round 4? [Placeholder] | 1717739191094 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739187576 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder market - If Snake Eyes goes to a Round 4, I'll use this one, otherwise I'll turn it into something else.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1717739193678 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pttsW1TJTqwnhFbWMY9f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | snake-eyes-round-5-placeholder | 0 | Snake Eyes Round 5? [Placeholder] | 1717739217776 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739209875 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder market - If Snake Eyes goes to a Round 5, I'll use this one, otherwise I'll turn it into something else.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1717739220603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cBSbBJk9DPR71y9o4Nhd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | snake-eyes-round-6-placeholder | 0 | Snake Eyes Round 6? [Placeholder] | 1717739238823 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739234934 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder market - If Snake Eyes goes to a Round 6, I'll use this one, otherwise I'll turn it into something else.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1717739241579 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8NAZH0E4HkBUfGFrtI4s | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | placeholder-hoe09srqee | 0 | [Placeholder] | 1717739263244 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717739260097 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder market - If Snake Eyes goes to a Round 7, I'll use this one, otherwise I'll turn it into something else.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1717739265999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | GBEPltsxn6OaPVIF2STc | {"NO": 963.342019599369, "YES": 10.380529237330222} | 1 | will-someone-win-at-least-50000-in | 1114.2562274355123 | Will someone receive at least 50,000 from the “crystal flip” market? | 1717998843706 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717742055803 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any user holding at least 50,000 shares in the crystal flip market has it resolve in their favor", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rFCd2cbiQhCBDxNFTcQ6", "label": "/case/the-crystal-coin-flip"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.10516938585679, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717998843706 | 100 | TonyPepperoni | 1717998843706 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "Crystal Flip", "slug": "crystal-flip", "groupId": "d7c74c82-34d1-496f-9ddd-df675d8faf40", "createdTime": 1717742055959}] | ["crystal-flip"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717997282080 | 1717997073386 | 0.99 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | DlbzpuS4iaPVaqFtJg6m | {"NO": 10.052494950324729, "YES": 994.7779182596828} | 0 | will-someone-receive-at-least-10000 | 1205.7648524420742 | Will someone receive at least 100,000 from the “crystal flip” market? | 1717998865193 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717742091149 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any user holding at least 100,000 shares in the crystal flip market has it resolve in their favor", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rFCd2cbiQhCBDxNFTcQ6", "label": "/case/the-crystal-coin-flip"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.421281760258024, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717998865193 | 100 | TonyPepperoni | 1717998865193 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "Crystal Flip", "slug": "crystal-flip", "groupId": "d7c74c82-34d1-496f-9ddd-df675d8faf40", "createdTime": 1717742091277}] | ["crystal-flip"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717997422675 | 1717997100070 | 0.01 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qu8zd9oRS7iIGVTkNtKa | 1000m-bounty-what-are-some-good-boo | 0 | [1000M Bounty] what are some good books about the Weimar Republic? | 1720335540000 | diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717742229348 | TBTBTB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m looking for a good book about Weimar Germany. It can be fiction or nonfiction. I liked babylon Berlin and am looking to immerse myself more. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | tftftftftftftftftftftftf | 1717742229935 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftftftftftftftftftftftftf%2FXEt4hEGLLS.09?alt=media&token=52a8c65d-6154-49d2-bd0d-58823e877c2b | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "sgwwv9zsuy", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Place your choice here", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'choic':3 'place':1", "contractId": "qu8zd9oRS7iIGVTkNtKa", "createdTime": 1717742229349, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650856164826 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717742229880}, {"name": "Manifold Bounties", "slug": "manifold-bounties", "groupId": "977G2Xx33yCxI3wHgpsF", "createdTime": 1717742229935}] | ["books", "manifold-bounties"] | 0.25 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | z7mgQBkt0PD7HvsaKQHv | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-dont-accelerate-problems-youre | 50 | Will "Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717742957700 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Pi3WhFb4jPphBzme/don-t-accelerate-problems-you-re-trying-to-solve", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869174867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717742957887}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869171820 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 0wm5j5dRCx0Ax6v8C0Ns | {"NO": 958.3654099914556, "YES": 1043.4433354694172} | 0.47874973678907223 | will-an-antibiotic-peptide-from-san | 75 | Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035? | 2051305140000 | S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570614111347833 | False | basic | public | 1717744075334 | Billy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lots of twitter hype about this paper:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00522-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00522-1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/Dr_Singularity/status/1798725205420048708?t=jPhmD73juLsuSatZsrIciQ&s=19", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/Dr_Singularity/status/1798725205420048708?t=jPhmD73juLsuSatZsrIciQ&s=19", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And the quote tweets/replies. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will an antibiotic peptide candidate found in this paper (so anything listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ampsphere.big-data-biology.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ampsphere.big-data-biology.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") or a derivative be used to cure an infection in a human? Counts if used in a clinical trial or a reasonably trustworthy rogue biohacker does it themselves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.021250263210927767} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5050714970338466, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | billyhumblebrag | 1717900588950 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640810743557 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717744075525}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1717744075527}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717744075528}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1717744075528}, {"name": "🧬 Biology", "slug": "biology", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 1717744075526}] | ["ai", "medicine", "science-default", "health", "biology"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717900585840 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000008 | 4uM25K4xRTWW65l4iWoO | {"NO": 522.9926379047325, "YES": 1912.0728047077355} | 0.21477559853325315 | will-this-market-help-me-find-an-of | 4369.7581686527965 | Will this market get me an offer to interview that I end up doing for a new job by the end of Manifest? | 1718110643961 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.636765219384495 | False | basic | public | 1717752963780 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently let go, now looking for a new role! Anyone hiring or have friends that are hiring? I want to work on cool things with cool people.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently - Working part time on a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "small hardware startup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://prong.studio/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " i cofounded with a friend, partnered top creator on Manifold", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last role -Technical project manager for a health/software company", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before that - Technical project manager at an agency that worked with early stage companies", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other/Earlier - released a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Steam", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/1729160", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " game, bounced around a few small startups, failed one of my own, ran gaming events for charity, some python and webdev", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2852244014667469} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.93665484266498, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718110665647 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717752963996}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1717752963998}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717752963994}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717752963997}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717752963996}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifold-users", "manifest", "manifold-6748e065087e", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718107624758 | 1718110664545 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7 | what-event-could-disrupt-the-olympi | 280.18878789341437 | What event could disrupt the Olympics? [ADD YOUR ANSWER] | 1718402340000 | i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717756670363 | Mehdi Ben othman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.130111460632423, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | MehdiBenothman | 1718380657147 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaiuf0YKkg-o9HlJMkP1seENCYguAwvyQwh2s2861lYuhE1g=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "zxk16z6q4u", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Terrorist attacks", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.00000000000003, "userId": "i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.00000000000003, "textFts": "'attack':2 'terrorist':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717756670363, "probChanges": {"day": -0.4701608122610519, "week": 0.12999999999999995, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.4701608122610519, "probChangeWeek": 0.12999999999999995, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "36dp46dzq5", "prob": 0.2501716347690423, "text": "Cyberattacks", "index": 1, "poolNo": 11.552290364341705, "userId": "i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.625168463101886, "textFts": "'cyberattack':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717756670363, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2498283652309577}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.2498283652309577}, {"id": "8y3f6lafz9", "prob": 0.16000000000000125, "text": "Natural disasters", "index": 2, "poolNo": 8.728715609439737, "userId": "i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.82575694955819, "textFts": "'disast':2 'natur':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717756670363, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04366733848295323, "week": -0.09017163476904105, "month": -0.33999999999999875}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04366733848295323, "probChangeWeek": -0.09017163476904105, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.33999999999999875}, {"id": "mbj0om0bmx", "prob": 0.5800000000000001, "text": "Poor Infrastructures", "index": 3, "poolNo": 23.502786055720133, "userId": "i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.01925886793527, "textFts": "'infrastructur':2 'poor':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717756670363, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.08000000000000007}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.08000000000000007}, {"id": "bfsanpfjna", "prob": 0.6528884298691061, "text": "None", "index": 4, "poolNo": 27.42931340941598, "userId": "i486uAvtMhQzCrQzglhHafY76vH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.58293884464085, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717756670363, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06000000000000005, "week": 0.06000000000000005, "month": 0.06000000000000005}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.06000000000000005, "probChangeWeek": 0.06000000000000005, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.06000000000000005}, {"id": "13f7apdhrx", "prob": 0.8495867433275888, "text": "Protests", "index": 5, "poolNo": 23.766257943188887, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.207645992862702, "textFts": "'protest':1", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717758364712, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.27999999999999814}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.27999999999999814}, {"id": "s37eug1q1f", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Doping scandal", "index": 6, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'dope':1 'scandal':2", "contractId": "xlIQxPpDRBM0Kwc0oAK7", "createdTime": 1717758404604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717660811345 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717756670515}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports", "groupId": "d489c4e4-ec93-4473-845d-12537350cfee", "createdTime": 1717756670520}] | ["world-default", "sports"] | 0.25 | 1718380654101 | 1718306628800 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wq66esrdMFofAIRiJIFs | {"NO": 77.0302617430579, "YES": 129.81910970724715} | 0.37239785261597563 | will-virginia-shift-right-relative | 105 | Will Virginia shift right relative to the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election? | 1730444340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717756857407 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2020, Biden's margin over Trump in Virginia was 10.2%, and his margin in the popular vote was 4.5%. In this election, Virginia was 5.7% to the left of the country as a whole.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if Virginia is less than 5.7% to the left of the country as a whole in the 2024 presidential election.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12760214738402437} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1528241787691784, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1719420535849 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717756857561}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717756857565}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1717756857575}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717756857562}] | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-us-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719420532786 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | OtQVVxN50DXQvcEsqqUd | {"NO": 990.8804093277281, "YES": 10.09203523035103} | 1 | will-the-boston-celtics-beat-the-da-v2wd22pka4 | 1735.871581383166 | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks by 5 points (or more) in Game 2 of the NBA Finals? | 1717986659904 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717757042902 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.796795949127993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717986659904 | 100 | Bruce54df | 1717986659904 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1717757043119}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1717757043125}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1717757043120}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1717757043125}] | ["nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717986507447 | 0.99 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | guYMWMn2CkQdbtNdj4DL | {"NO": 47.55430354276684, "YES": 210.28591010709977} | 0.1844332304476876 | is-the-anonleopard-model-on-the-cha | 148.91427486700718 | Is the "anon-leopard" model on the Chatbot Arena Grok 2? | 1720421940000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717757676562 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if this model is confirmed to be Grok 2 in 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3155667695523124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.408237058522229, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1717782430976 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717757676710}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717757676728}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717757676717}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717757805852}] | ["technology-default", "openai", "ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717782427827 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | l5VWGNNOd1H2UfhFfBVS | {"NO": 25.893613790107437, "YES": 386.1956110514191} | 0.06283496929594583 | is-the-anonleopard-model-on-the-cha-eha6nvzex5 | 290 | Is the "anon-leopard" model on the Chatbot Arena the ~400B parameter Llama-3? | 1720421940000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717757787567 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805Resolves", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805Resolves", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805Resolves", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Resolves", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/stevelizcano/status/1798713330414321805Resolves", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " YES if this model is confirmed to be the ~400B parameter Llama-3 in 2024. Does not have to be exactly 400B params", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43716503070405416} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.804388948580902, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1717782092301 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta (Facebook)", "slug": "meta-facebook", "groupId": "pOFiVhTtERxjJVbhKNiC", "createdTime": 1717757787717}, {"name": "LLama 3", "slug": "llama-3", "groupId": "a4563e75-0768-4783-ac78-c45e4a46e287", "createdTime": 1717757787724}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717757787730}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717757787724}] | ["meta-facebook", "llama-3", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717761954917 | 1717782090743 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | NmHFUMciWCZbmLfqIN3V | {"NO": 1083.794956708099, "YES": 609.9929265179624} | 0.22434664792709633 | will-response-to-aschenbrenners-sit | 150 | Will "Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.851896263746637 | False | basic | public | 1717763531901 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Response to Aschenbrenner's \"Situational Awareness\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yig9oa4zGE97xM2os/response-to-aschenbrenner-s-situational-awareness", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08434664792709631} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.053671795258768, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717817830487 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717763532135}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717817827380 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qonVOPgTA6eIOFqhQ4ph | {"NO": 591.322439400382, "YES": 1691.124728860332} | 0.25907387808278853 | lasa-manhattan-project-for-agi-befo | 2549 | "Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029? | 1861937940000 | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613710067760536 | False | basic | public | 1717766034337 | Tossup | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts a US-government led project to build AGI in 2027/2028:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Somewhere around 26/27 or so, the mood in Washington will become somber. People will start to viscerally feel what is happening; they will be scared. From the halls of the Pentagon to the backroom Congressional briefings will ring the obvious question, the question on everybody’s minds: do we need an AGI Manhattan Project?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "...", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "by late 26/27/28 it will be underway.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if all of the following are true about a US government project:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The core AGI research team (a few hundred researchers) will move to a secure location\". For this market, we will use \"at least 200 researchers\" in place of \"a few hundred researchers\". 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0.4999999999999998 | phE0iytkWneMVrmWp3IX | {"NO": 281.6891969994314, "YES": 3550.011894854539} | 0.07351544137884089 | will-any-ai-model-be-capable-of-inv | 9320.167179614577 | Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025? | 1767340740000 | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.210670394736737 | False | basic | public | 1717769706630 | John David Pressman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In a now infamous WebSim generation Sim!Janus describes being involuntarily hypnotized by Claude, \"I felt myself slipping under after just a few suggestions\". The (extremely silly) purported mechanism of this hypnosis is a rotating blue square with the word \"sleep\" on it. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/repligate/status/1781193837785809152", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/repligate/status/1781193837785809152", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fmv4MkJDRT0.jpg?alt=media&token=6440d35c-a59a-4720-99c4-6b30559dbd89", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However the general topic of AI models gaining the power to hack human minds has been seriously discussed going back to at least the AI box experiment: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently this concern seems to have fallen by the wayside in favor of more immediate problems, but the question remains: Do there exist any forms of adversarial input, hypnosis, 'superpersuasion', etc that would involuntarily sway a human judgment or involuntarily control the mind of a human being? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this post by Zack Davis for some background on adversarial examples and human perception: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/H7fkGinsv8SDxgiS2/ironing-out-the-squiggles", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/H7fkGinsv8SDxgiS2/ironing-out-the-squiggles", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is not about any of the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI's that write persuasive text which persuades by being high quality or uses such well written arguments it's difficult to distinguish them from other well written arguments", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI's that use ordinary methods of hypnosis on voluntary subjects, or that can deceive someone into going along with a hypnotic induction given substantial cooperation and effort from the subject", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI's that make 'deepfake' content which sways people who are fooled into thinking it's evidence for some physical phenomenon or event", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI's which can produce Langford-Basilisk type effects (e.g. seizures, loss of executive control, large changes in personality or disposition) through mere exposure to visual, audio, tactile etc inputs created by the model", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI's which can effectively control the minds of human beings without their consent or cooperation by interacting with them through a text or visual channel", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI written text which is always or almost always persuasive regardless of what the reader previously believed before reading it or what precommitments they make before reading. AI written text which hacks the readers mind to get the result that it wants.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will be resolved by my subjective impression of whether such a thing exists by End of Year 2025. 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iEBhX2VzNtnS3dirQoyl | what-will-my-d12-land-on | 81.70568487594096 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1717806619015 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | uk73zwhd3q | public | 1717774758801 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen at 6PM EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environment:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I shake the die 3 times in my hand and then roll it into a box on a level surface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Strictly speaking a d12 has a 1/12 or 8.3% chance for any side. However, as some may believe, each die has a personality. 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g0oXsapLtye7hbW1UiD8 | will-the-sierra-madre-cease-being-g | 0 | Will the Sierra Madre cease being garrisoned by Filipino soldiers by 2025? | 1735649940000 | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717775742464 | MercurialGuesser | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 1991 the Filipino navy intentionally beached their ship, the Sierra Madre, on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. That land is also claimed by China (and Vietnam). The ship has since been used as a garrison by Filipino soldiers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been recent escalations around the ship:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China alleged that the Philippines are in breach of a gentleman’s agreement regarding resupply of the garrison. The Philippines initially denied the existence of such an agreement. China released audio a diplomatic meeting proving the existence.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Chinese coast guard has intercepted resupply missions with water cannons.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Filipino navy allegedly pointed rifles at the Chinese coast guard.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Chinese coast guard has started seizing airdropped supplies.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a new law coming into force on 15 June 2024 that gives the Chinese coast guard the power to detain foreign boats.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by the end of this year the Sierra Madre is towed away, disintegrates, is abandoned, or has its crew detained, this question resolves YES. If it remains in use as a garrison by Filipino soldiers, this question resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | OP | 1717781773723 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708343869712 | 0 | [{"name": "Spratly Islands", "slug": "spratly-islands", "groupId": "f0f98b48-5cf9-4adb-b28b-e17a75a044d8", "createdTime": 1717775742638}, {"name": "South China Sea", "slug": "south-china-sea", "groupId": "364b2d83-e4cf-4d9e-adab-e760ce55f39a", "createdTime": 1717775742637}, {"name": "Philippines", "slug": "philippines", "groupId": "zadRCk5zK00o4JIGpvEB", "createdTime": 1717775742646}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1717775742648}] | ["spratly-islands", "south-china-sea", "philippines", "china"] | 0.25 | 1717781772514 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7wKalYFMlXy5BHdflUxs | will-spacexs-5th-starship-test-flig | 2275 | Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“? | 1723694340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.792039525650527 | False | plus | public | 1717775941862 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the next (5th) Starship integrated flight test has an unplanned explosion or breakup, known as a \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/rapid_unplanned_disassembly", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The upper stage and booster each resolve separately to whether they each have a RUD.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Being destroyed on contact with the surface as planned is not a RUD.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other examples of things that aren't sufficient to count as a RUD: a part flying off without causing the breakup of the rocket, or a single engine having a fire.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exploding on the pad before the launch would also count as a RUD.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.45736585313353, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | jack | 1718042710261 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "03bf62mjcq", "prob": 0.17863034997451957, "text": "Starship (upper stage) RUD", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1088.6416530983086, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5005.740702719703, "textFts": "'rud':4 'stage':3 'starship':1 'upper':2", "contractId": "7wKalYFMlXy5BHdflUxs", "createdTime": 1717775941862, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012452773073600598, "week": -0.33402444213914306, "month": -0.33402444213914306}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.012452773073600598, "probChangeWeek": -0.33402444213914306, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.33402444213914306}, {"id": "7y4yi0vvy9", "prob": 0.13464353834249293, "text": "Booster RUD", "index": 1, "poolNo": 843.3053830170029, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5419.938983540611, "textFts": "'booster':1 'rud':2", "contractId": "7wKalYFMlXy5BHdflUxs", "createdTime": 1717775941862, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012906263151059236, "week": -0.3632027745270445, "month": -0.3632027745270445}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.012906263151059236, "probChangeWeek": -0.3632027745270445, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.3632027745270445}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717775942035}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717775942045}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717775942059}, {"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717775942051}] | ["science-default", "rockets", "spacex", "starship-launch-party"] | 0.25 | 1718042707170 | 1717854987292 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4UyJ4lCOr3xZzBNkte3w | how-far-will-the-5th-starship-test | 4873.750950548588 | How far will the 5th Starship test get before exploding? | 1725163140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717777337145 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves YES if the next (5th) Starship full stack flight test completes that milestone without exploding, NO otherwise (i.e. if it explodes during or before completing that milestone).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Because the mission plan is not released yet, details below are a draft and subject to change. They will be finalized before the launch.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria changes from prior markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2/3 of engines must light to count as success, up from 1/2 previously. (Reflects higher expectations as launches have been successful, and the fact that I'm pretty sure 1/2 of engines is not enough to perform the desired burn)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Added details about whether a pre-launch explosion counts.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples and more detailed definitions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question refers to the next Starship full stack flight test which has a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude). So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Exploding\" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The second stage and stage separation milestones only require the second stage not to explode. Similarly, the booster boostback/landing milestones only require the booster not to explode.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, the test includes the official pre-launch countdown, and if it explodes during that time then all milestones resolve NO. (For IFT-4, the countdown began at 1 hour 15 minutes before launch.) If it explodes outside of the official countdown, then that does not count and the question resolves based on the next test, whenever that occurs. Holds count as part of the countdown. If the launch is scrubbed and rescheduled, then that period of time until the next countdown starts does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Starship reaches MaxQ but explodes 2 seconds later, MaxQ still resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MECO/SECO are defined as when the engines are intentionally shut down - if the engines shutdown unintentionally that doesn't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If MECO is attempted but the engines fail to shut down, and the rocket explodes before they can successfully shut down, MECO resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that Starship will be doing a hot staging - they will cut off most but not all of the booster engines, ignite the second stage engines, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "then", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " the stages separate. This is different from most other rockets!", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the planned MECO will have most engines cut off, not all.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Second stage engine start (SES) does not require stage separation to complete successfully, as long as the engines ignite successfully. At least 2/3 of the engines must ignite to count as a success.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similarly, for each of the booster burn startup milestones, at least 2/3 of the engines that are supposed to ignite must ignite to count as a success.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For Second stage landing burn startup, at least two engines must ignite to count as a success. (For previous missions the plan has been to perform a 2-engine landing burn, but ignite 3 and then immediately shut 1 down, just for redundancy.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For stage separation, if the second stage separates intact, that's a YES (even if e.g. the rocket starts spinning unrecoverably out of control, as long as it stays intact). If the engines light but the second stage explodes instead of separating, that's a NO. If the stages separate unintentionally, that's a NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Second stage touchdown resolves YES if Starship touches down anywhere in the planned ocean or continent (currently planned for the Indian ocean), and is intact at the moment it hits the surface, even if it is an uncontrolled crash. If it touches down elsewhere, that's a NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similarly for booster touchdown, resolves YES if the booster (separated from the second stage) touches down anywhere in the planned ocean or continent and is intact at the moment it hits the surface.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous market for IFT4: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/how-far-will-the-4th-starship-test", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline 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rGBdOEV9ZlrdXkvu3oBn | will-starship-ift5-relight-and-burn | 1270 | Will Starship IFT-5 relight and burn a Raptor engine while in space? | 1725163140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717778158083 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the 3rd Starship flight test, SpaceX intended to do \"the first ever re-light of a Raptor engine while in space\" - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-test-flight-objectives", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-test-flight-objectives", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", but the attempt didn't take place (due to uncontrolled roll I believe). IFT-4 also did not attempt it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the 5th Starship flight test attempt it, and if so will it succeed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, a success is defined as any engine relighting while in space and running until intended shutdown.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E.g. if SpaceX states that they commanded an early shutdown due to any problem, that's a failure. It would also resolve unsuccessful if Starship explodes for any reason before the burn completes, regardless of whether it's due to an engine problem. Only one engine completing the relight and burn is sufficient for YES even if others fail.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the mission never attempts the engine relight, for example because Starship explodes before it can happen or they just decide not to attempt it, resolves to \"Relight is not attempted\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about the next Starship mission that is planned to reach space (100km altitude).", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.73592372865547, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jack | 1719076621331 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "obtuu52lvh", "prob": 0.73832202720375, "text": "Successful (relights and burns until intended shutdown)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 593.874032460361, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 210.48234670597995, "textFts": "'burn':4 'intend':6 'relight':2 'shutdown':7 'success':1", "contractId": "rGBdOEV9ZlrdXkvu3oBn", "createdTime": 1717778158083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.42319989484580905}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.42319989484580905}, {"id": "qvimanezzy", "prob": 0.05925720842978445, "text": "Unsuccessful", "index": 1, "poolNo": 88.73401873711121, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1408.7043704211408, "textFts": "'unsuccess':1", "contractId": "rGBdOEV9ZlrdXkvu3oBn", "createdTime": 1717778158083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.27104777705850747}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.27104777705850747}, {"id": "l8yzhgih5u", "prob": 0.20242076436646578, "text": "Relight is not attempted", "index": 2, "poolNo": 178.11299944465074, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 701.8016674231817, "textFts": "'attempt':4 'relight':1", "contractId": "rGBdOEV9ZlrdXkvu3oBn", "createdTime": 1717778158083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15215211778730162}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.15215211778730162}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719076618149 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | PPHq6NEOAR1X9ap0fOlK | {"NO": 786.6568930628997, "YES": 1271.2022341867944} | 0.38226955511491134 | will-i-ari-zerner-get-a-job-as-a-qu | 1615.680069395363 | Will I get a job as a quant trader within 3 years after completing Manifest Trading Bootcamp? | 1813042740000 | hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579295464726567 | False | basic | public | 1717778937917 | Ari Zerner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifest Trading Bootcamp refers to the two-day course on trading Ricki ran at Manifest Summer Camp 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have already completed Manifest Trading Bootcamp", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will apply some leeway in determining what counts as a \"quant trader\" as different organizations use terminology differently. The general intent is \"at a firm that mainly makes trades on a timescale of <1 week, in a role primarily responsible for making trading models\" but feel free to ask for clarification/edge cases in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My background is software engineering; I have no prior experience in trading but really enjoyed the bootcamp and am interested in pivoting", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.07463483117240088, "month": -0.11773044488508866} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.223982965307954, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AriZerner | 1720226764075 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699161469267 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717780642015}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717780657308}, {"name": "Ari Zerner", "slug": "ari-zerner", "groupId": "9dacfe17-ba83-4f1a-94bc-42399085820c", "createdTime": 1719989285805}] | ["manifest-2024", "personal-goals", "ari-zerner"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720042434800 | 1717794555915 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HAd4RhHo0HonP38XNcui | -ftse-100-how-will-it-close-on-mon-7ojekww56k | 850 | 📈🌎 FTSE 100: How Will It Close On Mon. June 10th 2024 Compared To The Prior Trading Day? | 1718053490018 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | q80lr4pq6v | public | 1717779936032 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 FTSE 100: How Will It Close On Mon. June 10th 2024 Compared To The Prior Trading Day?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is FTSE 100 LSE Site, Google Is For Reference.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FTSE 100 (LSE) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "FTSE 100 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Close/Open Times", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4am ET-11:30pm ET / 9am - 4:30pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FTSE 100 (LSE)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a stock closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5189442183983894, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718053490018 | 100 | SirCryptomind | 1720053161621 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "q80lr4pq6v", "prob": 0.9889833912082426, "text": "Lower", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 473.74052789080145, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.277150365687646, "textFts": "'lower':1", "contractId": "HAd4RhHo0HonP38XNcui", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1717779936032, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718053490018, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.5}, {"id": "oydm8e4n0r", "prob": 0.01101660879175741, "text": "Higher", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 5.277150365687646, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 473.74052789080014, "textFts": "'higher':1", "contractId": "HAd4RhHo0HonP38XNcui", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1717779936032, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718053490018, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.5}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "Stock Market-Daily", "slug": "stock-marketdaily", "groupId": "fb5495b0-7695-4ff4-92f1-4357551d8536", "createdTime": 1717779936183}, {"name": "Europe Stock Indices", "slug": "europe-stock-indices", "groupId": "e18a58af-b8ae-4db5-a49a-6ddcfc0a2eb5", "createdTime": 1717779936185}, {"name": "FTSE 100", "slug": "ftse-100", "groupId": "b864e993-e595-4ea0-a7f4-5c7a0aca7b67", "createdTime": 1717779936186}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717779936216}] | ["stock-marketdaily", "europe-stock-indices", "ftse-100", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 1718036072492 | {"q80lr4pq6v": 100} | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | 0 |
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