Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.4999999999999998
JkHGm7I55ct9hlPmoVl4
{"NO": 41.706863875746244, "YES": 239.76868723076763}
0.14817224342146795
will-ussop-die
494.52557180613087
Will ussop die?
1718423940000
4dbLY6ATtfRmi8viTvfVVffODaS2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717780355953
William Groce
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.35182775657853205}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.536600585230884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
WilliamGroce
1718353194226
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjV8EzlVaOcvY_etRA0YIAv4L-QABlDBzw__NtCzkeNUR4fB3xvofX_36XNQtd8TtZjIYLbLXSSjsGyNgZmfYtytjkhpkB2L7Q-6QafaP0wtkGXaOt-GKL5rGNVjYua7II-Xwc0UJWi_qghUHivZ0lmAfCn1iGtPTgb-5ZUiN6TOAz0PHpwBMnoftnjwt_TU_tU3KgLikFtBeAEEB1ZekJHueS7MPi5d7t6KIMoLWtaNb4eRl9-w-BJhz9uVe2ZmA8DABtYSlYL5U-DXcWnlDUq...
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/ko6dai8x93.jpg
1717685182643
0
[{"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717780356168}]
["one-piece-stocks"]
0.25
0.5
1718353191180
0
yqX34aCKYMoZAscZNcXQ
which-publications-will-write-about
9754.413989525396
Which publications will write about Manifest in June 2024?
1719806340000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717781739469
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer resolves YES if in June 2024 that publication directly mentions Manifest in article text (defined as writing the literal word Manifest and using it to mean Manifest the event and not just the word manifest); otherwise NO.", "type": "tex...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 152.73110975096083, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719850336662
1200
jack
1719806340000
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
35
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "tg4txxa5ba", "prob": 0.06, "text": "Vox", "index": 0, "poolNo": 86.04552908230704, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1291.3060364220387, "textFts": "'vox':1", "contractId": "yqX34aCKYMoZAscZNcXQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "createdTim...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/el0yhvw1fd.jpg
1641102645330
0
[{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717781739641}]
["manifest-2024"]
0.25
1719756671173
1719846421323
0.05
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
False
0
dAKsAJvQkFkQvRy41TRQ
how-many-beeminder-promo-codes-will
239.99999999999122
How many Beeminder promo codes will we sell at Manifest?
1718089140000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-multi-1
0
9.850496922171589
True
plus
07283cppnj
public
1717782353523
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For now you'll have to come to my talk for alpha on this...", "type": "text"}]}]}
NUMBER
0
{"creatorFee": 15.268810748327063, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718160850233
10000
dreev
1718089140000
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
4
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "awbf4rifd4", "prob": 0.03810385477778908, "text": "0-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 203.13499510424813, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5127.952798739027, "textFts": "'-2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "dAKsAJvQkFkQvRy41TRQ", "resolverId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "createdTim...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUKdMCVzJKz.15?alt=media&token=734ec508-e9d6-4137-8ccb-4ee857e0911b
1644799031473
0
[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1717782353775}]
["beeminder"]
0.25
1717985189327
{"07283cppnj": 100}
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
True
0
0.5000000000000002
X5GRy1cuE6qPDmkEy0LA
{"NO": 782.3096337063341, "YES": 1278.2662476778123}
0.3796558237791443
will-the-documentary-about-the-soul
435
Will the documentary about the Soule-Reeves family's auction-based decisions see the light of day by the end of 2025?
1767254340000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
9.558776914708353
False
basic
public
1717782774465
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For now you'll have to come to my talk for alpha on this...", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.12034417622085569}
0
{"creatorFee": 13.359032842603764, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
dreev
1718812375414
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
7
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/cl30or3tv7.jpg
1644799031473
0
[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1717782774699}]
["beeminder"]
0.25
0.5
1718812372233
0
w1Guf3q6nEyVb1sMAyrO
the-median-answer-will-resolve-yes
97
The median answer will resolve YES.
1719809940000
HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
isn6t9rxes
public
1717783095585
TheSchwa
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of June, the answer with the median percentage of the three options will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves via random number generator if two (or all three) of t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6519102988820225, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720044381955
100
TheSchwa
1719809940000
0
https://firebasestorage.…bac-cc68523535a6
5
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "xzr4rvvlbp", "prob": 0.24322720132240702, "text": "Answer A", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.04371971609192, "userId": "HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.363673894144945, "textFts": "'answer':1", "contractId": "w1Guf3q6nEyVb1sMAyrO", "resolverId": "HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1", "created...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/z5ipl6mb69.jpg
1712888273551
0
[{"name": "CoolFold", "slug": "coolfold", "groupId": "0d4cf3f7-3da6-4b58-908a-34a6758fcf19", "createdTime": 1717783095740}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1717783095744}, {"name": "Game theory", "slug": "game-theory", "groupId": "FlG6Zfb...
["coolfold", "metamarkets", "game-theory", "fun"]
0.25
1717831555131
1717783366600
{"isn6t9rxes": 100}
HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1
True
0
FeP0qapqOfNHoLBGDZNi
what-will-be-the-biggest-loss-the-c
11527.667222488008
What will be the biggest Loss? - The Crystal Coin Flip
1717988744218
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
k9mxjfz0al
public
1717785977203
Base
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/case/the-crystal-coin-flip", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/case/the-crystal-coin-flip", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:de...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 131.73349084221323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717988747841
1000
Base
1718055900059
0
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
12
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "n764vy2yjn", "prob": 0.0008411656597407473, "text": "0-10000Ṁ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.483331283743496, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6513.246029866703, "textFts": "'-10000':2 '0':1 'ṁ':3", "contractId": "FeP0qapqOfNHoLBGDZNi", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/vjgoe8dqb9.jpg
1690298751650
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717785977527}, {"name": "Crystal Flip", "slug": "crystal-flip", "groupId": "d7c74c82-34d1-496f-9ddd-df675d8faf40", "createdTime": 1717785977528}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141...
["manifest", "crystal-flip", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
False
False
1717988714951
1717966406693
{"k9mxjfz0al": 100}
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
True
0
0nQNqqtmwx2mFCDb2NQP
will-inside-out-2-2024-have-a-rotte
23051.454839708535
Will "Inside Out 2" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
1719513397380
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717787074179
Ziddletwix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Inside Out 2\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/inside_out_2", "class": "break-anywhe...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 266.21741518738264, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719513397380
1000
Ziddletwix
1719513397380
0
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
54
1
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "lau7jncbs7", "prob": 0.99, "text": ">80%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1944.6371555479072, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.569389968654516, "textFts": "'80':1", "contractId": "0nQNqqtmwx2mFCDb2NQP", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdT...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/l69nff8zif.jpg
1680369520541
0
[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717787074341}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1717787074346}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupI...
["entertainment", "television-film", "culture-default", "boxoffice", "movies"]
0.25
1719513185078
1718580752689
0.99
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
False
alphabetical
0
0.24356831966117273
wC5Lg83E3Xh7Qx7ymqnv
{"NO": 5726.3058696178605, "YES": 8619.287012835142}
0.17622345529451927
will-tao-be-severely-injured-in-a-e
5253.424215134417
Will Tao be severely injured in a electric unicycle accident in 2024?
1735718340000
Tufux4wbDbU25lCqcbrxxIcp2ZH3
cpmm-1
0
5.0783343385526205
False
basic
public
1717787319963
Kyle Scott
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(created at Tao's suggestion)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "My coworker Tao has started frequently using an electric unicycle (EUC), here is his youtube channel: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@taoroalin...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.32377654470548073}
0
{"creatorFee": 84.6171307730502, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
6500
KyleScott
1718652699194
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggh0COQrQiZKgIZU8M7YgUsk5wqicllhtBpa77o23I=s96-c
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/7zctpjopqn.jpg
1645731970689
0
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717787320110}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1717787320122}]
["sports-default", "personal"]
0.25
0.5
1718648990002
1718652698012
0
Mn6mWKp0XkAjOs4VndYu
manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-b5po2hrchi
12642.48746935653
Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 14 (June)
1719894278902
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717787951373
Bayesian
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add anything about manifold leagues you can think of! ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I give myself the right to N/A any option that is spammy, not about manifold leagues, etc.", "type": "tex...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 94.91360730027581, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719894278902
1200
Bayesian
1719894278902
0
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
23
7
ANYONE
[{"id": "zgoty6xd43", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Someone earns 200k+ mana", "index": 0, "poolNo": 626.4887909669629, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.33882645354883, "textFts": "'200k':3 'earn':2 'mana':4 'someon':1", "contractId": "Mn6mWKp0XkAjOs4VndYu", "resolution": "YES", "resol...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/l5w40uj1ho.jpg
1656040913178
0
[{"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1717787951604}]
["manifold-leagues"]
0.25
1719894236921
1719811339487
0.01
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
False
0
V4MTMvp4WW1PQbr6qnEE
which-will-happen-first-the-end-of
399.26628627103105
Which will happen first - the end of SERI MATS 2024, or the 5th half-life (223 remaining) in Tontine?
1725163140000
Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717788362337
Lorxus PhD 🦊
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lorxus is a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SERI MATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.matsprogram.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:under...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.525167227508758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Lorxus
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c
4
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "hhnhla11lq", "prob": 0.7180281915458961, "text": "SERI MATS 2024 ends.", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.78806035121524, "userId": "Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.333008836101218, "textFts": "'2024':3 'end':4 'mat':2 'seri':1", "contractId": "V4MTMvp4WW1PQbr6qnEE", ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/iu01h8c09j.jpg
1678631188381
0
[{"name": "Tontine Prophecy", "slug": "tontine-prophecy", "groupId": "AUoMJogcVIv6ceH4D8WG", "createdTime": 1717788362500}, {"name": "SERI MATS 2024", "slug": "seri-mats-2024", "groupId": "05293cb4-1d7a-4792-9780-612a6813b172", "createdTime": 1717788362521}, {"name": "Tontine Prophecy (Very Unsettled)", "slug": "tontin...
["tontine-prophecy", "seri-mats-2024", "tontine-prophecy-very-unsettled", "ai-safety", "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population"]
0.25
1719772881480
True
0
UECvVphNFyl67M42L32j
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-car
9776.421681428088
To which is the last round that Carlos Alvaraz will advance in the 2024 Wimbledon tournament? 🎾
1720764000000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717789824250
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 158.2154494829163, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719891700735
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
16
4
DISABLED
[{"id": "zbkds1qdsq", "prob": 0.3142948891380775, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.1956412247164, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 301.5049266200367, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "UECvVphNFyl67M42L32j", "createdTime": 1717789824250, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0061729229807...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/xer2rdj56q.jpg
1697477345360
0
[{"name": "Carlos Alcaraz", "slug": "carlos-alcaraz", "groupId": "umTQLK7qc8uu9b2OH77w", "createdTime": 1717789824503}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1717789824505}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTi...
["carlos-alcaraz", "tennis", "sports-default", "wimbledon", "atp-tour"]
0.25
1719891696854
1717850882671
True
new
0
wpXEdDzBqEgtf8t4On6k
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan-33p3x7ngpe
7300.094101318493
To which is the last round that Jannik Sinner will advance in the 2024 Wimbledon tournament? 🎾
1720764000000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717789887171
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 107.66288427995384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1720097889641
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
13
4
DISABLED
[{"id": "ifwkrt2zey", "prob": 0.5437138605874472, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 222.82347510882445, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 186.99406176264372, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "wpXEdDzBqEgtf8t4On6k", "createdTime": 1717789887171, "probChanges": {"day": 0.07812615700...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/2tfs6i5wu9.jpg
1697477345360
0
[{"name": "ATP Tour", "slug": "atp-tour", "groupId": "a841d448-0950-41ba-a122-91322746e7dc", "createdTime": 1717789887352}, {"name": "Wimbledon", "slug": "wimbledon", "groupId": "kOaY8BjgZulDosGFDpPy", "createdTime": 1717789887356}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "cr...
["atp-tour", "wimbledon", "sports-default", "tennis", "jannik-sinner"]
0.25
1720097886528
True
new
0
0.4989744198283995
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
{"NO": 5324.302362155347, "YES": 18819.354347874785}
0.2198215727465439
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
12380.206221102497
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
1720393140000
0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32
cpmm-1
0
2.9119791392854277
False
plus
public
1717791079837
Gordan Knott
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Spacex change the external shape of any of Starship's flaps in a way that is obvious? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if they reinforce them internally and add more thermal p...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.09081707970739777, "month": -0.2801784272534561}
0
{"creatorFee": 309.1225345107601, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
GordanKnott
1719785695713
0
https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a
34
3
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…87b-642c18946bbb
1698871173640
0
[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717791079989}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717791080026}]
["spacex", "space"]
0.25
0.5
1719785692176
1717843436395
0
0.5
2Og7JFEbGDRnb7aLNgEw
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.5
agis-consensus-definition-reaches-a
0
AGI's consensus definition reaches alignment as follows: current tests + new tests in planning+reasoning capabilities
1720421940000
dauqpzeyV3YzOOiI56ljlYc55Op2
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714711
False
basic
public
1717791396975
Mikko Kiiskila
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By consensus definition referring to what can be both quantitatively and qualitatively accepted by both majority of researchers + the broader population of what and when AGI is just commonly accepted to be.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MikkoKiiskila
1717834578756
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJY6qHeR5pIze2FAatEnDm8vApMZhjH07o8ZoKo-3d7=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/ge7kr8nm04.jpg
1705370034961
0
[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717791397258}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717791397262}]
["ai", "science-default"]
0.25
0.5
1717834577342
0
mZWOEC2A7gVnoNXw4E6c
how-will-the-agi-before-2030-market
1727
How will the "AGI before 2030" market update around Manifest?
1718482440000
P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
aq6gy88s44
public
1717791971482
Chris Leong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifest is bringing a bunch of AI folk and prediction market enthusiasts together. Will this cause an update in this market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 30.356147744561902, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718991098475
1000
ChrisLeong
1718482440000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHR4tKxtHlc_Z38jYMwosbtR218Lw6ypWNw-GKx8yca644=s96-c
14
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "efdmeghp9l", "prob": 0.02134275989049262, "text": ">= 10% increase", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.14424158722062, "userId": "P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1382.2429914551528, "textFts": "'10':1 'increas':2", "contractId": "mZWOEC2A7gVnoNXw4E6c", "resolverId": "P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZML...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/xetxq0cxfb.jpg
1698895068539
0
[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717791971631}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717829857408}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89...
["ai", "manifest", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1718481310401
1718991060858
{"aq6gy88s44": 100}
P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53
True
0
0.5000000000000004
i7CTRaR0roCtOi9Yocv3
{"NO": 654.8924526411492, "YES": 1526.9682769545568}
0.3001531874871317
will-ukranianowned-onlyfans-be-foun
670
Will Ukranian-owned OnlyFans be found liable for helping launder money from the War in Ukraine?
1717909140000
siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2
cpmm-1
0
9.598369452348468
False
basic
public
1717793612124
AMB
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With teachers claiming to have quit their jobs in order to model for OnlyFans full-time, it would be infinitely easy to use the steaming service to launder any amount of money. It would even be feasible for OnlyFans to operate as a double agent for...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1998468125128683}
0
{"creatorFee": 18.323098360406497, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Eyeamb
1717878959100
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c
9
0
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…b/lqo2mtz80x.jpg
1711991197371
0
[{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717793612284}]
["wars"]
0.25
0.5
1717878955984
1717827363435
0
4wMTUIOG1On3jFNvOGtn
how-many-people-will-bet-on-my-mark
844.5051390885353
How many people will bet on my market about how AGI estimates will update around Manifest?
1718002740000
P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
e9wjf3pi29
public
1717793835399
Chris Leong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many people will bet on the following market by the time that market closes one week after Manifest?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ChrisLeong/how-will-the-agi-before-2030-mar...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.838568383850886, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718990560349
1300
ChrisLeong
1718002740000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHR4tKxtHlc_Z38jYMwosbtR218Lw6ypWNw-GKx8yca644=s96-c
3
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "4ptj5rtfwh", "prob": 0.0251908500611863, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.67435367222776, "userId": "P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1070.9131733468787, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "4wMTUIOG1On3jFNvOGtn", "resolverId": "P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53", "createdTime": 171779...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/q4fnpio5tf.jpg
1698895068539
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717829917631}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1717830146143}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "...
["manifest", "metamarkets", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1717889231457
{"e9wjf3pi29": 100}
P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53
True
0
Nhd15dP2UgfryhFvxLHE
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-9hr3nb06tu
2588.8754574411273
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, June 10th, 2024?
1717991940000
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717795421039
EBurk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 65.3521764633677, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718034064770
1000
EBurk
1717991940000
0
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
32
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "nkijen6gk7", "prob": 0.64, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 188.78132427033444, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.10477860660455, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "Nhd15dP2UgfryhFvxLHE", "resolution"...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/5hzfbcvnu8.jpg
1706489499554
0
[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1717795421202}, {"name": "Webcomics", "slug": "webcomics", "groupId": "tO2lKFZZPUkSUzf064Rp", "createdTime": 1717795421205}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717795421204}, {"name": ...
["nba", "webcomics", "space", "xkcd", "mathematics"]
0.25
1717980200691
1718034035697
0.06
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
False
0
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
672464.699414253
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
1717916340000
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.057737168133255
False
plus
public
1717795700519
Genzy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VERY IMPORTANT: have fun ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3843.667808769877, "platformFee": 2840.437192696045, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
87000
Gen
1718060310939
0
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
58
0
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "xblsdkzbhr", "prob": 0.9610667532069693, "text": "Duncan sings four original songs (or more)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44786.74142677891, "userId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1814.3310557835127, "textFts": "'duncan':1 'four':3 'origin':4 'sing':2 'song':5", "contractId": "UECU0p...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/gsnsrpb4zu.jpg
1668776584415
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717796198204}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717796215775}]
["manifest", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1717904785552
1718060309468
False
0
0.5000000000000006
COXutUp4mWkhJHAr50ms
{"NO": 11.027096155340132, "YES": 906.857060020943}
0
will-ricki-be-in-the-middle-of-sayi
1678.2013235940221
Will Ricki be in the middle of saying something / unprepared to stop talking at 3pm?
1717797608355
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1717795955734
Ari Zerner
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve according to my best judgement, won't bet to ensure fair resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 27.837273667430832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717797608355
100
AriZerner
1717797608355
0
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-a9d433b24f4c
8
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/i2bw87hwjj.jpg
1699161469267
0
0.25
0.5
1717797595801
0.02
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
0
0.5303730863043689
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
{"NO": 3281.3371095780158, "YES": 26232.378531868842}
0.12378108960337059
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
23982.599106769096
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
1830326340000
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
cpmm-1
0
2.8126367914756525
False
plus
public
1717800650139
John David Pressman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like \"If you're reading this your timeline is cursed.\" and \"I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "im...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.0004374833185732674, "month": -0.3762189103966294}
0
{"creatorFee": 450.69797946615876, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
JohnDavidPressman
1719657159501
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
68
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/6cgf1ytxrn.jpg
1717581521302
0
[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717800650312}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1717800650310}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdT...
["technology-default", "ai-alignment", "ai", "science-default", "ai-safety"]
0.25
0.5
1719657156386
1719323682084
0
Lp2npQG42kjEkugTvOuW
which-us-states-will-pass-a-phone-b
650
Which US states will pass a phone ban in schools by 2029?
1861941540000
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717800711759
Keenen W
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any state that passes legislation which limits or restricts school goers access to their phones will resolve Yes. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "States added that already have laws will resolve 50%.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 20.742166733231112, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1100
KeenenW
1718748991388
0
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6dkjjhivzt", "prob": 0.4311047574601674, "text": "Oklahoma", "index": 0, "poolNo": 217.6282478279769, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 287.1869834167978, "textFts": "'oklahoma':1", "contractId": "Lp2npQG42kjEkugTvOuW", "createdTime": 1717800711759, "probChanges": {"day": -...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…W/58jnr6l6b1.jpg
1697247005528
0
[{"name": "Phone Bans", "slug": "phone-bans", "groupId": "a247ecd5-d865-44d8-9319-60904ee9f3ce", "createdTime": 1717800711916}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717800711923}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnp...
["phone-bans", "technology-default", "politics-default", "us-politics", "united-states"]
0.25
1718748988338
False
0
0.5000000000000002
dS9H64FZAMmOAj8j5wBH
{"NO": 139.19536442756726, "YES": 7184.14728904541}
0
will-a-speaker-at-manifest-incorrec
8895.569177480129
Will a speaker at Manifest incorrectly declare that Jimmy Carter has died?
1718204871186
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
cpmm-1
0
9.868750590570952
True
basic
NO
public
1717800897494
Kevin Burke
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will also resolve yes if a speaker refers to \"the late Jimmy Carter\" even if Carter is still alive, or offers remarks reminiscing on Carter's life in a way that imply he is no longer living.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 110.71494583360969, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718204871186
1000
KevinBurke
1718204871186
0
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
25
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/acerb1gdlp.jpg
1668407142709
0
[{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1717800897643}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1717800897649}]
["jimmy-carter", "death-markets"]
0.25
0.5
1718200871907
1718169029435
0.02
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
0
NgZAoZcVvy889snUiN7m
how-many-games-will-ding-liren-win
1669.6333900668633
How many games will Ding Liren WIN in the classical portion of the 2024 World Chess Championship?
1734325140000
TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717802081105
John Carpenter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many games will Ding Liren win against Gukesh D? This high-stakes match is provisionally scheduled between November 20 and December 15, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ding Liren:", "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 18.75379435051293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JohnCarpenter
1719329793708
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c
12
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "lpnrqle8el", "prob": 0.3636389267917442, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 188.98328313613086, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 330.7170822880623, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "NgZAoZcVvy889snUiN7m", "createdTime": 1717802081106, "probChanges": {"day": -5.55111512312...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/4o0a6chaiq.jpg
1716594703165
0
[{"name": "2024 World Chess Championship", "slug": "2024-world-chess-championship", "groupId": "82bbe890-f64b-464b-9a21-7858dafbc5a5", "createdTime": 1717802081253}, {"name": "Ding Liren", "slug": "ding-liren", "groupId": "915eef4d-24d0-4533-bfdc-e88abc6aa91e", "createdTime": 1717802081250}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug"...
["2024-world-chess-championship", "ding-liren", "chess"]
0.25
1719329790534
1718102533789
True
0
0JtwIaECDJWQJAcc22Hx
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-95
50
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 95)
1717970340000
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
MKT
public
1717802672678
komplexkonjugat
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.498565309301828, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718011268611
110
komplexkonjugat
1718011944425
0
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "co9bm9npwl", "prob": 0.97, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.50143469069817, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.6806317447608166, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/yt4c543kmx.jpg
1698548141721
0
[{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1717802672841}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717802672866}]
["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"]
0.25
1717942382858
1718011938174
0.97
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
False
0
0.4999999999999998
i6wJRi2ZTIfkLQ0LhWVe
{"NO": 3958.1140290125627, "YES": 252.64557631996124}
1
will-someone-say-pickles-to-me-in-r
4200.233741187613
Will someone say "pickle” to me in reference to this market by the end of Manifest?
1717880625373
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
cpmm-1
0
9.887236457252634
True
basic
YES
public
1717802900394
Elliot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves yes if someone says \"pickle” to me in reference to this market by the end of Manifest 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 48.82680561416384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717880625373
1000
Elliot_dev
1717880625373
0
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
6
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/mrmhgtfovw.jpg
1696789198949
0
0.25
0.5
1717880619622
0.94
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
0
6j968Yd35h1Ky5bNZvk5
will-my-friends-bryant-trevor-joe-a
0
Will my friends Bryant, Trevor, Joe and Max make a bet on this market in the next week?
1718434740000
diYD92dMmzWhGM3iT8kjHB7CfSi1
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717806270403
Vincent Rowold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These are my friends and I’m trying to get them to join", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718434740656
VinceVince
1717806270403
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIY78mcyh8G6oagr5UVjdtebJHHEIUS8COMcE8mXsTGEwE=s96-c
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/tr1nc1d4x3.jpg
1700522156669
0
0.25
["6zwtxdhbk6"]
0
1fwYm83LzzOt6H7ctWjz
what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily
48.4151221562463
What will my d12 land on? - Daily
1717886156398
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
hao6ss0yqn
public
1717807225713
CrowTheFox
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 2]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen at 6PM EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environment:"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.40543034801441646, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717886156398
120
CrowTheFox
1717887595066
0
https://firebasestorage.…595-28d54bbe7c1c
3
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "e6pug9p5j4", "prob": 0.08115861021245725, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.376528267713058, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.870641978775474, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "1fwYm83LzzOt6H7ctWjz", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 17178...
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…b1d-0e32fc91a0f1
1717767881159
0
[{"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1717807225879}, {"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1717807225882}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717807226030}]
["dice", "dd", "fun"]
0.25
1717842314309
1717887594131
{"hao6ss0yqn": 100}
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
True
0
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
11057.177986038127
What question will I use my free crystal on? 🔮
1722340800000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717808757413
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During the Manifest 2024 opening Manifold Theatre, I won a crystal that can be redeemed for one free Crystal-tier market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That’s a LOT of free liquidity! Don’t want that to go to wast...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 102.42495329202399, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2500
NcyRocks
1719126776076
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
38
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "mvrin7xyck", "prob": 0.0013587887282372178, "text": "If AGI has a good outcome, what will be the reason?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.931213257247364, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4359.142719128135, "textFts": "'agi':2 'good':5 'outcom':6 'reason':11", "contractId": "03Jk...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/6jlc2v3jdv.jpg
1644447319203
0
[{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717808757553}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717808757554}]
["manifest-2024", "manifest"]
0.25
1719126772749
1719108194512
True
0
7tSho5EYNtA7MtCs8qZF
which-of-my-friends-friends-will-jo
308.56278352256936
Which of my friends friends will join manifold and bet in this market in the next week
1718434740000
diYD92dMmzWhGM3iT8kjHB7CfSi1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717808790462
Vincent Rowold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.038337761352942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
220
VinceVince
1717893075040
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIY78mcyh8G6oagr5UVjdtebJHHEIUS8COMcE8mXsTGEwE=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "tpz2i5pcf4", "prob": 0.47766273077223786, "text": "Joe B.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.125604341366905, "userId": "diYD92dMmzWhGM3iT8kjHB7CfSi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.91437179503067, "textFts": "'b':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "7tSho5EYNtA7MtCs8qZF", "createdTime": 1717808790462, "probChanges": {"day": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/pwdcdxsuod.jpg
1700522156669
0
0.25
1717893071918
False
0
0.5000000000000001
w2brrUAUUKSuZFXrFxNS
{"NO": 109.44446498253936, "YES": 91.370541229247}
0.5450014271698177
will-andrew-mccutchen-make-a-furrie
163.41910564458342
Will Andrew McCutchen make a "furries" tweet during Anthrocon 2024?
1720421940000
lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717809039782
Collected Over Spread
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For background, refer to the question from 2023: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bJaRyGdp7kSo0r0fgYqY", "label": "/CollectedOverSpread/will-andrew-mccutchen-make-another"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.20499857283018186, "month": 0.0450014271698177}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.469555850218424, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
CollectedOverSpread
1720070567668
0
https://firebasestorage.…b3f-1fccf3e5c242
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/dhu1p6c7vm.jpg
1669187789067
0
[{"name": "Furry", "slug": "furry", "groupId": "a9052b3a-fdf1-4078-930e-52df658ffe77", "createdTime": 1717809039946}, {"name": "Pennsylvania", "slug": "pennsylvania", "groupId": "18ce2009-6dff-4f25-86a3-e782620e462c", "createdTime": 1717809039936}]
["furry", "pennsylvania"]
0.25
0.5
1720070432563
1720070566699
0
0.5000169002098342
U70x3czGMacth3AnlCXl
{"NO": 10106.29934017499, "YES": 9894.82547939484}
0.5053034475133178
will-spaces-timecube-ad-lead-to-1-m
110
Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay?
1735718340000
UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53
cpmm-1
0
2.7264288892846444
False
plus
public
1717809330636
Raj Thimmiah
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Space is going to be making some stuff to help advertise our house (timecube). Will this lead to at least 1 extra month of someone renting space in the attic this year?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.005303447513317572}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.700659825009621, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
raj
1718034099249
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c
3
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…j/zyojdfos65.jpg
1644725300473
0
[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1717809330789}]
["personal"]
0.25
0.5
1718034096090
1717884811593
0
GfKytrvAc1XX0iUTzwjI
who-will-win-tonights-minor-league
3179.4865758105348
Who will win tonight’s Minor League Baseball game between the Stockton Ports and SJ Giants?
1717821964484
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
arcj4zk7eg
public
1717811781885
Joshua
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as expected at the conclusion of the game ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 29.42680568006355, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717821964484
1000
JoshuaB
1720053161621
0
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
3
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "arcj4zk7eg", "prob": 0.59283021219117, "text": "Stockton Ports", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 603.3195461367136, "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 414.3741100397719, "textFts": "'port':2 'stockton':1", "contractId": "GfKytrvAc1XX0iUTzwjI", "resolverId": "1wygrQ...
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…269-98998413baaf
1661311952917
0
[{"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c", "createdTime": 1717811782057}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717811782052}]
["short-fuse", "sports-default"]
0.25
1717821873764
1717822259986
{"arcj4zk7eg": 100}
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
True
0
54sXL6lzNoN0fmsXSHAW
which-will-be-the-most-popular-hard
17600.96161465532
Which will be the most popular hardware store of 2024
1735624740000
siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2
cpmm-multi-1
0
6.002848150019602
False
plus
public
1717812167250
AMB
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In this kind of hard-pressed economy, hardware stores thrive. Home Depot is closely partnered with CitiBank. Republican mega-donor Bernie Marcus said in 2023 that he would likely still give money to Donald Trump's 2024 presidential bid if the forme...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 190.11833682307946, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
11000
Eyeamb
1718716935183
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c
36
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "4gvg34t2ql", "prob": 0.7547774523643643, "text": "Home Depot", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5140.487770019485, "userId": "siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1670.1128300868695, "textFts": "'depot':2 'home':1", "contractId": "54sXL6lzNoN0fmsXSHAW", "createdTime": 1717812167251, "probChanges": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…b/x26yecfoft.jpg
1711991197371
0
[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717812167582}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717812167584}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYX...
["economics-default", "politics-default", "culture-default"]
0.25
1718716932076
1717825367252
True
0
0.5000000000000004
EKxjPMMz979X7ZtNOWTS
{"NO": 34.85698725127144, "YES": 286.88652659260555}
0.10833780869374578
will-regular-nato-memberstate-troop
305.5914139400101
Will regular NATO member-state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024
1735718340000
2FMogQwA0OUT6iqcbsq8EMtW3yw2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717813329571
spider
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.042432876590167465, "month": -0.39166219130625424}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.690635565931884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
spider
1719788628379
0
https://firebasestorage.…930-f41df6d1ed53
6
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/f1s5x6oyjc.jpg
1680935111074
0
[{"name": "Russia Ukraine", "slug": "russia-ukraine", "groupId": "c5ac8679-20e1-416b-8dc0-eb7716120a91", "createdTime": 1717813329720}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1717813329723}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId":...
["russia-ukraine", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars"]
0.25
0.5
1719788625232
0
DJ31aNe7bH11EDgytT8C
ukraine-warcasting-megamarket
41084.843389492
Ukraine warcasting megamarket
1735718340000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-multi-1
0
6.600083736003022
False
plus
public
1717814016371
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 765.3356535212979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
100
24000
NathanpmYoung
1720211517615
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanpmYoung%2Flove-images%2Fg-n-xy50_N.43?alt=media&token=28208478-6907-4bc5-9fde-15746ee9af90
101
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "pkcusk03ks", "prob": 0.21235525197726893, "text": "Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1269.7844701960241, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4709.744919225177, "textFts": "'2024':16 '250k':12 'citi':10 '...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/qlbqhr6kc1.jpg
1642188589725
0
[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1717814016508}]
["ukraine"]
0.25
1720211514241
1717881987570
False
0
0.5
eY3OmiaRsPBZLQeN2bpX
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.5
will-johnzellweger-trade-one-of-his
0
Will @JohnZellweger trade one of his shoes with someone else at Manifest?
1717814349118
bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714711
True
plus
CANCEL
public
1717814290787
Eric Bolton
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He’s roughly an 11", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717814349118
10000
EricBolton
1717814349118
0
https://firebasestorage.…cef-e6d468df0f51
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/o28lkv6tyt.jpg
1691454991515
0
[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717814290974}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717814290978}, {"name": "Aging", "slug": "aging", "groupId": "2c9d9cb5-e1de-478a-85c7-d829d9d...
["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "aging", "donald-trump"]
0.25
0.5
0.5
bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2
0
0.49999999999999994
5AloIDwmWqMkuaXMeDcn
{"NO": 92.9078754583396, "YES": 107.63350201118377}
0
will-johnzellweger-trade-a-shoe-wit
42.49315009176063
Will @JohnZellweger trade a shoe with someone else at Manifest?
1718089140000
bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1717814417092
Eric Bolton
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He’s roughly an 11", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.3777274341811958, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718424463970
100
EricBolton
1718089140000
0
https://firebasestorage.…cef-e6d468df0f51
5
0
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/zj05nq9jia.jpg
1691454991515
0
0.25
0.5
1718088119690
1717878053273
0.46
bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2
0
0.49999999999999994
yUJuoDdGQqnKY8SuBY8G
{"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677}
0.3931377340057284
will-us-skiersnowboarder-visits-for
25
Will US skier/snowboarder visits for the 2024-25 season rank #1 on record?
1746935940000
BMWjHBBSG5fMJtYXdbyDoBY7Zbz1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717815279916
mr.ice
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NSAA data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nsaa.org/NSAA/About/Media/Press_Releases/NSAA/Media/Press_Releases.aspx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:de...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686226599427162}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
SoftServe
1717851387401
0
https://firebasestorage.…d7c-e1e896bda7c4
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/7wce3o5p1u.jpg
1680471534809
0
[{"name": "Snowboarding", "slug": "snowboarding", "groupId": "77eed928-9d71-4b32-a93a-0f3576370792", "createdTime": 1717815280056}, {"name": "Outdoors", "slug": "outdoors", "groupId": "nXJagFYl8Vj4j6Z0ilYc", "createdTime": 1717815280063}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "cr...
["snowboarding", "outdoors", "athletics", "-skiing", "-snowsports"]
0.25
0.5
1717851384267
0
R7IHijGsJGRqwJNWFmZ2
european-roulette-wheel
1200
European roulette wheel
1718488740000
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
zzz2x6376x
public
1717815473869
Niel S
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "European roulette, pick your number and win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fairlyrandom will choose a number between 1 and 36 at the end of this market to ensure it's fair. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.3104181503760475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718498282730
370
NielS
1718488740000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
1
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "rumo0sijk9", "prob": 0.0004974363864951025, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6878556308033694, "userId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1382.1133416236755, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "R7IHijGsJGRqwJNWFmZ2", "resolverId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "createdTime": 17...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…S/mhywr93ot5.jpg
1710643823998
0
[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717815474053}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1717815474078}]
["fairlyrandom", "gambling"]
0.25
1717815832891
1718498042807
{"zzz2x6376x": 100}
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
True
0
0.500000000000001
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3
{"NO": 335.9656988663621, "YES": 2976.494336696461}
0.10142483086872293
will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m
11472.917353525569
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
1735718340000
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
cpmm-1
0
9.756750861959347
False
basic
public
1717815518482
John David Pressman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Davidad, Programme Director at the UK's Advanced Research Invention Agency has publicly stated on his Twitter that he expects LLM 'jailbreaks' to be a solved problem by the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, ...
BINARY
{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.02435928881013516, "month": -0.39857516913127705}
0
{"creatorFee": 198.79771046359437, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JohnDavidPressman
1720086425930
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
83
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/j2gm24nwp7.jpg
1717581521302
0
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717815518638}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717815518646}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3m...
["technical-ai-timelines", "ai-safety", "technology-default", "ai", "ai-alignment"]
0.25
0.5
1720086422363
1717883932119
0
v9rghVLC9SDHpYfNiVvb
dice-roll-wylcvl8jva
242.30430135608057
Dice roll
1718488740000
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
lhpw63bulx
public
1717816174979
Niel S
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A dice will be rolled with fairlyrandom", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.4071278983757693, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719709248848
100
NielS
1718488740000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
6
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "lhpw63bulx", "prob": 0.1622130713763692, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.839230524271198, "userId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.816981954697695, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "v9rghVLC9SDHpYfNiVvb", "resolverId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "createdTime": 171781...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…S/zrf715m5cc.jpg
1710643823998
0
[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717816175137}]
["fairlyrandom"]
0.25
1718485424372
1719709172802
{"lhpw63bulx": 100}
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
True
0
0.49999999999999994
HMXSjDCEZUB7ybewsojV
{"NO": 997.0236955078948, "YES": 1002.9851893245018}
0
friday-card-flop-skirmish-will-the
327.4180722551135
Friday card flop skirmish - Will the second card be higher than the first?
1718423940000
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
cpmm-1
0
9.570334719003322
True
basic
NO
public
1717816428421
Haws
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the second card is higher than the first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.427172762822781, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718427002618
1000
Haws
1718423940000
0
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
6
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/2sf29v706e.jpg
1677434458766
0
[{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717816505924}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1718426783576}]
["nonpredictive", "fairlyrandom"]
0.25
0.5
False
1718396783017
1718426996157
0.5
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
0
t2eOGuUU7rV6mN2WKJIk
friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-t2poh5zkb9
8191.517494344003
Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
1718423940000
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
5ag32xbgjr
public
1717816630751
Haws
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every Friday evening I will roll 2 dice using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxj...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 75.2565434720963, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718424193862
1100
Haws
1718424230407
0
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
29
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "d5h1n1fanc", "prob": 0.039536264696427875, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.287429339713086, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 857.2457831592747, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "t2eOGuUU7rV6mN2WKJIk", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1717...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/yr8cvfa2sq.jpg
1677434458766
0
[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717816630943}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1717816630940}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime"...
["fairlyrandom", "gambling", "dice", "nonpredictive"]
0.25
False
1718297821080
1718424228838
{"5ag32xbgjr": 100}
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
True
0
0.5002226552372891
qSxn9dLX4n2eCRSoGT3Y
{"NO": 100911.90388108307, "YES": 98979.651468672}
1
in-the-brisbane-rugby-union-hospita
1058.9545549392449
In the Brisbane Rugby Union Hospital Cup, will the North's Premier Grade team win one (1) or more games in 2024?
1717834707078
eHQRYIgdvQdFvS4WroVyDYmhHW33
cpmm-1
0
0.3696995857208243
True
premium
YES
public
1717817657855
Roaring Kitty
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No wins so far this season ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 35.63878676780566, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717834707078
100000
SF
1717834707078
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2U0gOt-5ScdQ8ncUf-KI3f5klkaBeQF7dGvEhfGk_Xzw=s96-c
8
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…F/24xzlr5ip2.jpg
1711339930081
0
[{"name": "Rugby", "slug": "rugby", "groupId": "s9RHjLUS0vXCC5M6gCKb", "createdTime": 1717817658044}, {"name": "2023 Rugby World Cup", "slug": "2023-rugby-world-cup", "groupId": "H1SEpow3e6Ir1knkiMso", "createdTime": 1717817658046}, {"name": "Rugby Union", "slug": "rugby-union", "groupId": "zwGpLZiAFgqXUQyAzmSv", "crea...
["rugby", "2023-rugby-world-cup", "rugby-union"]
0.25
0.5
1717834644485
1717826645487
0.51
eHQRYIgdvQdFvS4WroVyDYmhHW33
0
njoGXomKgzgNwP9A0mAP
during-manifoldlol-will-the-audienc
9974.087261725934
During manifold.lol, which topics will the audience laugh at a joke about?
1717912303562
DfYrmoP0U5O5rfRXaeZ5NpfTzUH2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717817836655
Emma Liddell
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold.lol", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Manifold.lol", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 248.97522150889992, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717918926666
5600
EmmaLiddell
1717956344409
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLeC4DdWXgex1g2pgngS9WqvqZdIcjxv5xynMDv0ezY=s96-c
41
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "73shbexde7", "prob": 0.84, "text": "Prediction Markets", "index": 0, "poolNo": 228.55569918321874, "userId": "DfYrmoP0U5O5rfRXaeZ5NpfTzUH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.753010910411135, "textFts": "'market':2 'predict':1", "contractId": "njoGXomKgzgNwP9A0mAP", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "DfYrmoP0U5O...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/2874d9do8g.jpg
1707708664334
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717817836837}]
["manifest"]
0.25
1717912297270
1717956342670
0.2
DfYrmoP0U5O5rfRXaeZ5NpfTzUH2
False
DfYrmoP0U5O5rfRXaeZ5NpfTzUH2
0
XHUj0lNyEo4hQZhV2xMb
manifest-dollar-auction
3723.8687835580963
Manifest dollar auction
1718089140000
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
MKT
public
1717818231292
Jonathan Ray
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The manifold user with the highest % option other than ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "label": "JonathanRay"}}, {"text": " gets paid M1000 by me but it resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"type...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 10.434670673174228, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718118252171
130
JonathanRay
1718123539916
0
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "vl9abxpuqx", "prob": 0.01, "text": "@Joshua", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.025189076296044, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 497.49371855330975, "textFts": "'joshua':1", "contractId": "XHUj0lNyEo4hQZhV2xMb", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "cre...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…y/378icdz909.jpg
1647294987992
0
[{"name": "🐋 Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1717818231440}, {"name": "🪞 Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1717818231441}]
["whale-watching", "selfresolving"]
0.25
1717951263982
1718123538543
0.01
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
False
0
0.34759363307193053
lVulRfQrCG8HhOrI3oRR
{"NO": 14883.479435549816, "YES": 4617.865639613823}
1
will-cremieaux-fight-richard-hanani
12363.75250950834
Will @cremieaux fight Richard Hanania at Manifest 2024
1717873005575
diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73
cpmm-1
0
3.1974572468783857
True
plus
YES
public
1717820948256
TBTBTB
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I overheard it might happen? The proposed fight was wrestling. I think it would end with a shoulder tap", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 398.62785164332854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717873005575
10000
tftftftftftftftftftftftf
1718175548190
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftftftftftftftftftftftftf%2FXEt4hEGLLS.09?alt=media&token=52a8c65d-6154-49d2-bd0d-58823e877c2b
24
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…f/bn07r3ia6e.jpg
1650856164826
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717820948383}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717820948385}, {"name": "🌶️ Spicyfest", "slug": "spicyfest", "groupId": "89380840-f104-4f1d-...
["manifest", "sports-default", "spicyfest"]
0.25
0.5
1717872430427
1718175544849
0.63
diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73
0
WWJjUMfB5xTM1HSz7p5i
first-person-to-say-pickle-to-me-wi
0
First person to say pickle to me wins 2k mana.
1718434740000
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717821506486
Elliot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First person to say pickle to me during Manifest wins 2k mana.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718434740656
Elliot_dev
1717914830836
0
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
7
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/cya9o0vgnf.jpg
1696789198949
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717821506667}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717821506671}]
["manifest", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1717914829687
["xe9hnr0844"]
0
0.5000000000000003
eZSc9fTYxNTs6hjKncRW
{"NO": 999.9999999999997, "YES": 1000.0000000000003}
0.6
friday-dice-roll-derivative
212.34170688614037
Friday Dice Roll - Derivative
1718416800000
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714724
True
basic
MKT
public
1717821616331
Keenen W
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the numbers Haws rolls on his ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Friday Dice Roll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-t2poh5zkb9", "class": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.09999999999999998}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.989132960763115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718426128594
1000
KeenenW
1718416800000
0
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…W/eblp109xqc.jpg
1697247005528
0
[{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1717821616482}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1717821616483}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime"...
["gambling", "dice", "fairlyrandom"]
0.25
0.5
1717922882872
1718426104713
0.6
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
0
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
0
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
1730955540000
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1717826464396
Haws
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RFK votes won't apply, sorry for the oversight for the RFK fan boys.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This poll resolves the following question: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
Haws
1719115733768
0
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
97
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/11g9azn2ho.jpg
1677434458766
0
[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717826464539}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717826464540}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime...
["politics-default", "polls", "us-politics"]
0.25
1719115732575
0
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
20365.10898045018
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %]
1731128340000
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717826746928
Haws
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves by percentage. Both Trump and Biden votes will count to the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 218.7257750371082, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Haws
1720053161621
0
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
71
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "e5hs4dew3o", "prob": 0.26602638582896604, "text": "Trump", "color": "#e91e63", "index": 0, "poolNo": 301.01777248001895, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 830.5157464302054, "textFts": "'trump':1", "contractId": "IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry", "createdTime": 1717826746929, "probCha...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/ags42ic0ka.jpg
1677434458766
0
[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717827283867}]
["2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.25
1720022395660
1719043107325
True
0
0.5000000000000003
gvExxWwTMhpbNsuDMxq0
{"NO": 1840.6336020133026, "YES": 543.291179138635}
0.7721022141998497
will-there-be-a-2nd-summer-camp-hel
2300.008742871579
Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025?
1767254340000
yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3
cpmm-1
0
9.629069067688182
False
basic
public
1717827152641
case
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I had such a blast at summer camp this year! Will there be another?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if a week long event or similar is offered in conjunction alongside a Manifest-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2721022141998497}
0
{"creatorFee": 58.90107719951401, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
case
1718157068345
0
https://firebasestorage.…a3b-d765464b70da
22
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/5f7i44lgsr.jpg
1698605440324
0
[{"name": "Summer camp", "slug": "summer-camp", "groupId": "235cc48a-639c-40ae-bdc8-4dd5f8ca8e7e", "createdTime": 1717827152801}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717827152802}]
["summer-camp", "manifest"]
0.25
0.5
1718157065179
1717918594970
0
7SW4vvcroQ7tjmuL2x7l
steve
0
Steve
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1717827846178
stefanie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "self explanatory.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
shankypanky
1718315580164
0
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
17
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…y/l23vvnyoxy.jpg
1698976802308
0
[{"name": "Dogs & Cats", "slug": "dogs-cats", "groupId": "6zfcg4rHWwD11dCW9s2C", "createdTime": 1717827846331}, {"name": "Furry", "slug": "furry", "groupId": "a9052b3a-fdf1-4078-930e-52df658ffe77", "createdTime": 1717827846336}, {"name": "Steve", "slug": "steve", "groupId": "0e1f58f7-8a14-4aad-a87b-fce20c2b27f3", "crea...
["dogs-cats", "furry", "steve"]
0.25
1718315579043
0
V1YG2IdjefpMeg6I9u8s
what-quality-of-pizza-topping-would
0
What quality of pizza topping would Steve be?
1718434740000
DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717827887082
TonyPepperoni 🪿
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718434740656
TonyPepperoni
1717827887082
0
https://firebasestorage.…884-fdf2cfdcaefb
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/u8rvefy76z.jpg
1691471177482
0
0.25
["qb4d6jwk4f", "9km39mjyyq"]
0
NlW1qJr8K6tM266gPDok
how-long-in-months-will-patio11s-sa
9381.325341940443
How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?
1830412740000
bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2
cpmm-multi-1
0
8.714223507563151
False
plus
public
1717828918958
Patrick McKenzie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I left my full-time employment in January 2023 and currently describe myself as being on “semi-sabbatical.” I was feeling quite burned out last year and am less burned out now, but have not yet made concrete plans for the Next Adventure. I’m curiou...
NUMBER
0
{"creatorFee": 471.59486714163216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
patio11
1719088324448
0
https://firebasestorage.…96f-ed42aa2f80fd
27
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "sr6pehc61t", "prob": 0.05834999442340928, "text": "18-21", "index": 0, "poolNo": 332.6454897023586, "userId": "bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5368.220345666177, "textFts": "'-21':2 '18':1", "contractId": "NlW1qJr8K6tM266gPDok", "createdTime": 1717828918958, "probChanges": {"day": 0...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…1/cijoa4e0u0.jpg
1671873403497
0
[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1717828919170}]
["personal"]
0.25
1719088320735
True
0
IlCzmzzis4z3c2ChZUmh
would-you-have-sex-with-a-squirtle
0
Would you have sex with a Squirtle?
1717836353506
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717829360063
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cc ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky"}}, {"text": " ...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717836360550
strutheo
1717865049035
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
13
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/8sft2nqvgi.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Pokemon", "slug": "pokemon", "groupId": "YJf8HTYrq54vfR2GmZ1t", "createdTime": 1717829360203}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717829360230}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 1717836...
["pokemon", "manifest", "sex", "sex-and-love"]
0.25
1717865047877
["bzy93tbbau"]
0
0.5000000000000001
TkrdYdguFvdOVIaln0eY
{"NO": 296.1898346839987, "YES": 3376.2131001791026}
0
will-the-average-manifolder-say-the-fys2pw6sjn
2439
Will the average Manifolder say they're willing to have sex with a Squirtle?
1717836364988
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
9.814534264453467
True
basic
NO
public
1717829451418
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "cc ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky"}}, {"text": " ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 35.90821889563272, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717836364988
1000
strutheo
1717836364988
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/h2ixfe5dun.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1717829451568}, {"name": "Pokemon", "slug": "pokemon", "groupId": "YJf8HTYrq54vfR2GmZ1t", "createdTime": 1717829451567}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 171782945157...
["sex-and-love", "pokemon", "sex", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users"]
0.25
0.5
1717836265939
1717829521046
0.08
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
0
0.5
7Ya8gFMW6apAA9HaonKv
{"NO": 178.28305953797724, "YES": 56.090578801570594}
0.760678806716694
will-civilization-vii-bring-back-th
90
Will Civilization VII Bring Back the District System?
1735718340000
oySxkXLrHjgPP2KIiB3pFQddPDH2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717829957214
Jacob Malach
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.26067880671669397}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.270357223482554, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
JacobMalach
1717944242671
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKr3mF_THINOcf-l9WmKO0yew-5xlKzGFL42OJJ9taj7xY=s96-c
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…h/zijzmxjerl.jpg
1712082997599
0
[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1717829957403}, {"name": "Civilization VII", "slug": "civilization-vii", "groupId": "595e3824-9f29-4bfe-bd51-e65f2c436250", "createdTime": 1717829957404}]
["gaming", "civilization-vii"]
0.25
0.5
1717944239547
1717883940717
0
EdDGaRpwfBXad7KQkjsi
which-group-will-rickiheicklen-thin
0
Which group will @RickiHeicklen think is the best at Manifest?
1717831275861
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1717830963948
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717831275861
1000
strutheo
1717831275861
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
0
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "55vzsebu7p", "prob": 0.2, "text": "Wavelength Group / Manifold Power Users", "index": 0, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'group':2 'manifold':3 'power':4 'user':5 'wavelength':1", "contractId": "EdDGaRpwfBXad7KQkjsi", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/gxd1keihdq.jpg
1700846926650
True
0
[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717830964096}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717830964103}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVba...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest", "manifold-users", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
True
0
0.5000000000000001
8sE6Ygpgso4vhqfYqons
{"NO": 487.43368208356515, "YES": 2051.5611389952346}
0.19197899815977507
will-the-esquire-theatre-in-denver
1075
Will the Esquire Theatre in Denver, Colorado, be operational as a theatre in 2025?
1736751540000
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
cpmm-1
0
9.585876807202368
False
basic
public
1717833013959
Craig Talbert
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Esquire Theatre in Denver, Colorado, a historic venue known for showcasing independent and classic films since 1927, is facing a significant transition. The theater is set to close in July 2024 as the owners plan to redevelop the property into ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.30802100184022496}
0
{"creatorFee": 23.438861004765073, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
CraigTalbert
1718516779056
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
3
0
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…d99-2f5095e6266b
1668421942235
0
[{"name": "Cinema", "slug": "cinema", "groupId": "cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP", "createdTime": 1717833014107}, {"name": "History", "slug": "history", "groupId": "J32Si3DhXq2184I9k4PB", "createdTime": 1717833014142}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1717833014143}]
["cinema", "history", "movies"]
0.25
0.5
1718516776022
0
0.5000000000000001
8gWOGG2Hblp28ZrDysKT
{"NO": 38.81206169918602, "YES": 257.6518629055391}
0.13091664272789377
will-jose-luis-ricon-win-the-nobel
283.4645063405472
Will Jose Luis ricon win the nobel prize?
3818465940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717835027079
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3690833572721062}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.8975643521238, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1717920043069
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
6
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/hbsxjhamqa.jpg
1650319241876
0
[{"name": "Jose Luis Ricon", "slug": "jose-luis-ricon", "groupId": "207551e8-8e5d-405c-98ea-cebe79643413", "createdTime": 1717835027256}, {"name": "Nobel Prizes", "slug": "academic-awards", "groupId": "gF0c1fO8ozQYyctfQ5cT", "createdTime": 1717835027255}]
["jose-luis-ricon", "academic-awards"]
0.25
0.5
1717920039906
0
0.5
p4ggHVtsJ5fsFYQt5VL5
{"NO": 95.5873436739692, "YES": 104.61636044734288}
0.47745042527309434
if-jose-luis-ricon-arm-wrestled-ste
9
If Jose Luis ricon arm wrestled Stephen Hsu, would he win
3850001940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717835069010
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.022549574726905663}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.30045496388707854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1717920042749
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/jyh5mf9s56.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1717920039634
0
YoRV9DpVIuQsih2qEEik
if-you-could-only-pick-one-which-is
0
If you could only pick one, which is better
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
none
0
1000000
False
public
1717835500098
The Wabi Sabi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
TheWabiSabi
1717835500098
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/5qm1etiyqq.jpg
1697631332267
0
0.25
0
W8G9sr7BTOXxkwSOpQD9
what-will-be-true-about-asteroid-mi
2374.8497823145476
What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?
2871759540000
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717836141965
Jan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, \"mining\" means any material extraction from asteroids or other ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "small solar system bodies. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Solar_...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 38.3037443541097, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Jan53274
1718073451639
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
13
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "9ujzgucda9", "prob": 0.05991341004015495, "text": "At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.245157847531544, "userId": "9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 396.11556641456315, "textFts": "'10':3 'kg':4 'least':2 'machin':9 'mine':5 'nano':8 'nano-machin':7", "c...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…4/jvu5kswkz3.jpg
1710435332909
0
[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1717836142117}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717836142115}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1717...
["futurism", "economics-default", "space", "technology-default", "spacex"]
0.25
1718073448508
False
0
0.5
T65hwjfH518EGzeYgGdF
{"NO": 87.31604120021962, "YES": 114.52649321411111}
0.43259485149439453
will-basedbeffjezos-get-laid-in-202
15
Will basedbeffjezos get laid in 2024/2025
1767243540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717836738628
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06740514850560547}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4735067858888853, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1717851300472
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/3nw02nwimv.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1717851297334
0
OoGekyYJjWWSJDKJI5TW
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-zguk6ex1go
0
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Rush Limbaugh?
1719110379092
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717836850688
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719110401035
strutheo
1719110383708
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
11
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/l1f3ku16kw.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717836850832}]
["polls"]
0.25
1718899554857
["de8hrrrj4b"]
0
Dy3jpcNtPHnFaPQ4LIZB
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-g6a9tyhs2b
0
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Mr Krabs?
1718308299925
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717836883121
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718308321101
strutheo
1718308300462
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
18
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/bx18us22fu.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717836883253}]
["polls"]
0.25
1718207506305
["8axzac8tj9"]
0
PieA9NY1m3mWBXgE6Qg7
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-8ngla3296f
0
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or An Autopen (signs everything, can't talk)?
1720497540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1717836925058
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
strutheo
1717981484867
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/9fxqe66aih.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717836925206}]
["polls"]
0.25
1717981483837
0
zVsbx9Y14fhYf3RoADHi
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-1quvpu2qlx
0
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Julius Caesar?
1718351879768
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717836949465
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718351880652
strutheo
1718351880651
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/gqwc6yom1t.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717836949644}]
["polls"]
0.25
["3ghwwytoqn"]
0
0.5000000000000002
43xjKmSe1Rb3f7m2Q7jZ
{"NO": 1248.5751726977253, "YES": 800.9129300876264}
0.6092131840145121
will-llms-loss-function-achieve-the
569.6935115500847
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
1925074740000
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
cpmm-1
0
9.578001295444631
False
basic
public
1717837857863
Ihor Kendiukhov
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Texts generated by our civilization inherently possess a certain level of entropy, representing the amount of information and unpredictability within the text. The loss function of large language models measures the difference between predicted out...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10921318401451208}
0
{"creatorFee": 18.29073947773796, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IhorKendiukhov
1718033161856
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
11
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/ncqwffrugl.jpg
1680382822335
0
[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717837858193}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1717837858206}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 171...
["ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "llms"]
0.25
0.5
1718033158682
1717873041793
0
qFwy2rB3UdqQZPQkb6xS
what-will-be-the-life-expectancy-in
1469.06991068931
What will be the life expectancy in the USA in 2050?
2556226740000
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.533799133114833
False
plus
public
1717838564906
Ihor Kendiukhov
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification Sources:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type...
NUMBER
0
{"creatorFee": 95.05238733102695, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
IhorKendiukhov
1719835657020
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
26
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "x9bwa7r08x", "prob": 0.038456887058953115, "text": "70-71.03", "index": 0, "poolNo": 142.84815876625257, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3571.653187826651, "textFts": "'-71.03':2 '70':1", "contractId": "qFwy2rB3UdqQZPQkb6xS", "createdTime": 1717838564906, "probChanges": {...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/ykzugufq0x.jpg
1680382822335
0
[{"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1717838565096}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717838565106}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQs...
["united-states", "public-health", "longevity"]
0.25
1719835652771
1717898975872
True
0
r2d1778J3OmdBYuXeVuC
would-you-rather-live-in-brave-new
0
Would you rather live in Brave New World or 1984
1717862915963
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717839503527
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717862940471
strutheo
1717862918962
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
6
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/or57e4b5sp.jpg
1700846926650
0
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717839503703}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1717839503713}]
["polls", "books"]
0.25
1717845198284
["2jazut07xa"]
0
0.5000000000000003
g2i5CADEW87y8nQfT5PS
{"NO": 328.0768948233705, "YES": 3048.0659131402035}
0.0971750644106375
will-there-be-a-consensus-that-hype
2907.502410743607
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
2556226740000
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
cpmm-1
0
9.773377221325223
False
basic
public
1717841123901
Ihor Kendiukhov
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Consensus in Research Community:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "par...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4028249355893625}
0
{"creatorFee": 39.21004042282209, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IhorKendiukhov
1718408679763
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
20
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…v/tc3a55p9bs.jpg
1680382822335
0
[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717841124600}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717841124601}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime"...
["science-default", "ai", "technology-default"]
0.25
0.5
1718408676714
0
0.5000000000000006
NTjr8ptihEhvnRhFLDtM
{"NO": 303.99464536850803, "YES": 3289.5316257553895}
0.08459508082945849
russia-detonates-nuclear-weapon-for
8269.691497838561
Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024?
1735685940000
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
cpmm-1
0
9.800771002282204
False
basic
public
1717842075564
Kongo Landwalker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.004164441728248092, "month": -0.4154049191705415}
0
{"creatorFee": 99.83055402837819, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
KongoLandwalker
1720057103220
0
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
74
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/1e0sn72rc4.jpg
1681038287526
0
[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1717842075703}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1717842075705}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "cr...
["russia", "nuclear-risk", "nuclear", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.25
0.5
1720057100170
1719023730290
0
qfW6gknHfwChPOXToQpB
risky-business-nate-silver-maria-ko
708.1882200595763
Risky Business (Nate Silver & Maria Konnikova podcast) prop bets
1735707540000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717844221939
David Glidden
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/risky-business-with-nate-silver-maria-konnikova", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/risky-business-with-nate-silver-maria-konnikova", "class": "break-anywhe...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 10.294548435339237, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
150
dglid
1719648927618
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
5
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "4yn8zasruz", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Guest appearance before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 123.9106776056214, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.043955953410467, "textFts": "'2025':4 'appear':2 'guest':1", "contractId": "qfW6gknHfwChPOXToQpB", "resolution": "YES", "resolverI...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/jlsvf4x1ri.jpg
1643941084707
0
[{"name": "Nate Silver", "slug": "nate-silver", "groupId": "ksgqwpVQzv2AnCZ2mq29", "createdTime": 1717844222585}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1717844222586}, {"name": "Podcasts", "slug": "podcasts", "groupId": "8cvSruaMBLaZqnfLaLA0", "createdTime": 1717844222589}...
["nate-silver", "poker", "podcasts", "entertainment", "science-default"]
0.25
1719648924488
1718282423097
False
new
0
0.5000000000000002
QyeTpC2iwzVQfwXo3esM
{"NO": 245.25296400188225, "YES": 4077.422689139542}
0.0567363789655718
will-a-reuters-story-reference-this
4540.877747240215
Will a Reuters story reference this market?
1725260340000
w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2
cpmm-1
0
9.902026096867143
False
basic
public
1717847515544
Derik K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: there’s a Reuters reporter at Manifest.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.4432636210344282}
0
{"creatorFee": 59.307907356867574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
derikk
1718036415285
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjMMD3hpowUw0WGPs_qJTqQyB5X_6EEY691J3ABqA=s96-c
35
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/poxo7poha3.jpg
1648417904218
0
[{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717847515676}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717847515681}]
["manifest-2024", "manifest"]
0.25
0.5
1718036411983
1717865387721
0
0.5000000000000003
KiVRt189JWbSD33jMHLK
{"NO": 2304.6652193524337, "YES": 433.90249985244304}
1
will-i-solve-a-project-euler-task-b
3648.379958638721
Will I solve a Project Euler task before the end of June?
1718032049932
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
cpmm-1
0
9.68184373080275
True
basic
YES
public
1717849458897
Kongo Landwalker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have solved 57 before. My profile ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projecteuler.net/progress=Nikita_Babich", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projecteuler.net/progress=Nikita_Babich", "class": "break-anyw...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 78.38723801003997, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718032049932
1000
KongoLandwalker
1718237667294
0
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
31
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/oeb7mxnhvm.jpg
1681038287526
0
[{"name": "Project Euler", "slug": "project-euler", "groupId": "9513b305-55db-4655-9e97-f8e3baab3282", "createdTime": 1717849459039}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717849459038}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVC...
["project-euler", "programming", "mathematics"]
0.25
0.5
1718032032200
1718237666363
0.84
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
0
0.5
UdQVoXYogRkdk0d0e4NA
{"NO": 13.79204256846646, "YES": 725.0557667842132}
0
will-trainer-chad-brown-have-3-or-m
1133.3973434188815
Will Trainer Chad Brown have 3 or more winners (out of 14 races) at Saratoga today (June 8, 2024)?
1717931765044
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1717852922840
Bruce
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 11.941525547281659, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717931765044
100
Bruce54df
1717931765044
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…f/2azhksbrqc.jpg
1697633597735
0
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717852922987}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1717852922991}]
["sports-default", "horse-racing"]
0.25
0.5
1717920039061
1717872628854
0.02
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
0
ZuktObarUpBJB0I9tZFW
conditional-on-hollow-knight-silkso
885
Conditional on Hollow Knight: Silksong releasing in 2024, which month will it be released in?
1735707540000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717853285654
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Silksong does not release in 2024 this will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.239609889700536, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Ibozz91
1719953941714
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
6
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "lpmjzwroqq", "prob": 0.022639689552204644, "text": "June", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.0672107375693, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1341.1782286679365, "textFts": "'june':1", "contractId": "ZuktObarUpBJB0I9tZFW", "createdTime": 1717853285655, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…1/fsjj9exlzu.jpg
1656270007406
0
[{"name": "Hollow Knight", "slug": "hollow-knight", "groupId": "zay01nrwKaH5ZhWBuoXe", "createdTime": 1717853285798}, {"name": "Silksong", "slug": "silksong", "groupId": "jEa492Msts89rFyWDHy0", "createdTime": 1717853285802}]
["hollow-knight", "silksong"]
0.25
1718464432130
1719953940353
True
0
0.5
MJvSRLTr6YUK2BmvPRRJ
{"NO": 955.8451001015326, "YES": 1046.1946186613054}
0.4774356328415891
will-there-be-a-slay-the-spire-the
150
Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?
1846047540000
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
cpmm-1
0
9.570649962524055
False
basic
public
1717853674983
Ernie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Via jorbs 6/7 run ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/Dj5sBF39g9g?si=XZdEWBM5A1z6giVr", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/Dj5sBF39g9g?si=XZdEWBM5A1z6giVr", ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.022564367158410925}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.0354985520921645, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Ernie
1718664935380
0
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
3
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/oi20og4ivt.jpg
1668384110640
0
[{"name": "Jorbs", "slug": "jorbs", "groupId": "7d9aeca1-3802-4d85-97ba-e2baee8039b5", "createdTime": 1717853675129}, {"name": "Slay the Spire", "slug": "slay-the-spire", "groupId": "0SFua7i6YIvMhBZUPvqU", "createdTime": 1717853675133}, {"name": "Steam", "slug": "steam", "groupId": "Y5rThqV7EajtoQh906Yz", "createdTime"...
["jorbs", "slay-the-spire", "steam"]
0.25
0.5
1717877817043
1718664934421
0
RrHQwZeT5alij3zRp5m0
by-which-flight-will-spacex-success
18695.086849442105
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
1782971940000
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
cpmm-multi-1
0
6.402601109395722
False
plus
public
1717854146814
Evan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight. Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For d...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 372.24141087726366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
11000
EvanDaniel
1720114189290
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
32
1
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "b3aoaejmfq", "prob": 0.07695012675592401, "text": "6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 496.619146730352, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5957.160303244625, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "RrHQwZeT5alij3zRp5m0", "createdTime": 1717854146815, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/tblasdcaur.jpg
1691250349596
0
[{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1717854146953}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1717854146969}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3...
["starship-launch-party", "spacex", "rockets"]
0.25
1720114186237
False
prob-asc
0
Zg1ciuON0Cb5vo1HYOx7
by-when-will-starliner1-launch
3820.7059790017424
By when will Starliner-1 launch?
1767337140000
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
cpmm-multi-1
0
7.133810740841776
False
plus
public
1717857662100
Evan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starliner-1, the next ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "planned Starliner flight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner#List_of_flights", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 75.12482174636473, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
EvanDaniel
1719268000288
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
7
0
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "0yiknh3ke0", "prob": 0.08, "text": "2025-03-31", "index": 0, "poolNo": 365.42913353510835, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4202.435035653746, "textFts": "'-03':2 '-31':3 '2025':1", "contractId": "Zg1ciuON0Cb5vo1HYOx7", "createdTime": 1717857662100, "probChanges": {"day": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/e8jhoe47vc.jpg
1691250349596
0
[{"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1717857662253}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1717857662266}]
["starliner", "rockets"]
0.25
1719267997139
1718928935262
False
prob-asc
0
GCYMQ2rQgqxR7WvRvFAl
in-june-2024-which-wikipedia-articl
730
In June 2024, which Wikipedia articles will get more than 1 MILLION views in a single day? [Add Answers]
1720188079523
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
MKT
public
1717857742903
alh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've previously predicted in similar markets for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "cumulative", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " highest view count in a month. I think these have got a bit stale as the answers tend to be r...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 8.242236404933719, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
300
1720188079523
240
alh
1720188079523
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
3
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "7nsgkplntt", "prob": 0.9797034095800565, "text": "List of National Democratic Alliance members", "index": 0, "poolNo": 132.46025577881386, "userId": "MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.744189243575182, "textFts": "'allianc':5 'democrat':4 'list':1 'member':6 'nation':3", "contractId"...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…h/5a8s56lbzs.jpg
1710000956452
0
[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717857743052}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717857743066}, {"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "creat...
["world-default", "technology-default", "wikipedia"]
0.25
1720188050052
1720188021349
0.01
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
False
0
Iwa9wca5GtaNVZgeM1lj
in-july-2024-which-wikipedia-articl
60
In July 2024, which Wikipedia articles will get more than 1 MILLION views in a single day? [Add Answers]
1723071540000
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717858460676
alh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've previously predicted in similar markets for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "cumulative", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " highest view count in a month. I think these have got a bit stale as the answers tend to be r...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6802856816974714, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
210
alh
1718090711764
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "etqvzb0bbx", "prob": 0.2772438412998795, "text": "Deaths in 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.53147826992781, "userId": "MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.37965633329993, "textFts": "'2024':3 'death':1", "contractId": "Iwa9wca5GtaNVZgeM1lj", "createdTime": 1717858460676, "probChanges...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…h/t9of352ymn.jpg
1710000956452
0
[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717858460847}, {"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "createdTime": 1717858460845}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "creat...
["world-default", "wikipedia", "technology-default", "television-film"]
0.25
1718090708587
1717864822781
False
0
0.5000000000000003
v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa
{"NO": 630.4169980268557, "YES": 1586.2516447524463}
0.28439839219109775
will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241
1838
Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)
1735624740000
yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2
cpmm-1
0
9.550596101431534
False
basic
public
1717860014997
phaen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This morning I weighed 245.5 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-12-31?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I'm 50% successful on these months-...
BINARY
{"day": -0.012943207211480734, "week": -0.11741445628592784, "month": -0.21560160780890225}
0
{"creatorFee": 55.50665396130407, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
1000
phaen
1720206216740
0
https://firebasestorage.…9a0-90cebc102691
21
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/19wexiyg06.jpg
1644215050730
0
[{"name": "Weight", "slug": "weight", "groupId": "gsUwohSpI9GiN4gtck12", "createdTime": 1717860015186}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717860015183}]
["weight", "personal-goals"]
0.25
0.5
1720206213636
1720131030359
0
Q6l4I5HdHf2BSyRb9kVp
which-hard-questions-will-the-manif
1500
Which hard questions will the Manifold founders confront at our Manifest 2024 panel?
1717861593366
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717861284739
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, James, Stephen and I are going to discuss some hard questions and internal disagreements on Manifold. We have some questions planned, but would love to solicit more from you all!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 29.658152951397316, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717861593366
1100
Austin
1717861593366
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "sfmd7okzd2", "prob": 0.86, "text": "Was Manifold.love a good idea? Was Bet on Love a good idea?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 823.4472823495341, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 134.93409170539604, "textFts": "'bet':7 'good':4,11 'idea':5,12 'love':9 'manifold.love':2", "contrac...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/nkof25bz0b.jpg
1639011767273
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717861284898}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717861284907}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-busin...
["manifest", "manifest-2024", "manifold-business-future"]
0.25
1717861308703
1717861532598
0.5
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
False
0
0.49999999999999994
nuB4dFSb3poVQn7SZG7I
{"NO": 177.55801410139804, "YES": 56.31962066375277}
1
will-i-eat-under-1800-calories-each
98.40150605133148
Will I eat under 1800 Calories each day this week (through 2024-06-14)?
1718427540000
yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1717861865748
phaen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll attempt to post daily updates. I've done several of these before successfully but have stopped the past month or two after some repeated failures. Let's see if I can get back into it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.4319676291325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718431952113
100
phaen
1718427540000
0
https://firebasestorage.…9a0-90cebc102691
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/ort5ps04lb.jpg
1644215050730
0
[{"name": "Weight", "slug": "weight", "groupId": "gsUwohSpI9GiN4gtck12", "createdTime": 1717861866057}]
["weight"]
0.25
0.5
1718210991311
1718431942530
0.76
yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2
0
0.5000000000000002
z4gKGThiiUobxLTk0f81
{"NO": 1154.0029788696418, "YES": 866.5488896566899}
1
will-i-be-able-to-collect-all-the-m
159
Will I be able to collect all the manifest shirt signatures I want?
1717945690510
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
cpmm-1
0
9.573521304350013
True
basic
YES
public
1717862161145
niko
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm at manifest collecting signatures on my swag shirt. Will I be able to collect all the signatures I want before the conference runs out?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone is not at...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.997021130358036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717945690510
1000
Nikos
1717945690510
0
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
5
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/cedx0vu4an.jpg
1679164789994
0
0.25
0.5
1717920038136
1717862222023
0.57
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
0
x7H0vrlJPhlZrI8XF4PF
which-questions-will-i-ask-chris-be
1350
Which questions will I ask Chris Best (CEO of Substack) at Manifest 2024?
1718002740000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1717862381911
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suggest & bet on questions that I should ask Chris Best during our fireside chat today! You can submit questions even if you're not attending; the talk will be recorded for later. I won't ask questions directly by highest %, but I will consider tho...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 26.904571142552406, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718124948064
1000
Austin
1718002740000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "nfdy9b3se0", "prob": 0.86, "text": "You don’t write much on Substack yourself and have a relatively muted online presence — why is that?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 823.4472823495341, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 134.93409170539604, "textFts": "'much':5 'mute':13 'onlin':1...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/ah0liyuvl9.jpg
1639011767273
0
0.25
1717868883241
0.88
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
False
0
HYgMCUxI459xy0Zvq9xk
do-you-think-kling-from-kuaishou-is
0
Is Kling from Kuaishou is comparable or better than Sora from OpenAI in video quality and fidelity?
1720497540000
8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3
none
0
1000000
False
public
1717863290563
Sss
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: It is comparable or even better than Sora.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: It is not comparable in Sora in video quality and fidelity. It lacks some particular emergent ability/understanding/temporal depend...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
Sss19971997
1717863435826
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…7/l67udl2eyn.jpg
1696879998283
0
[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717863290700}, {"name": "OpenAI Sora", "slug": "google-sora", "groupId": "559a6620-3276-446a-b5de-f0b9ee2b7433", "createdTime": 1717863290703}]
["ai", "google-sora"]
0.25
0
fMSodkfUDj3LxECrRgdr
best-manifest-out-of-context-quote
13689.727194431083
Best Manifest Out Of Context Quote
1718132340000
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
lo4yprokxf
public
1717864152235
Joshua
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to a poll I will make after market close", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 167.0305202530103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718135124070
2900
Joshua
1718135894415
0
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
60
0
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "uoyo5gvk03", "prob": 0.00043919657456586433, "text": "\"I'm not a whale anymore, just a degen\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.1425283171308536, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7152.032395888893, "textFts": "'anymor':6 'degen':9 'm':2 'whale':5", "contractId": "fMSodkfUDj3LxEC...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/xjl3mw2ejd.jpg
1645516283433
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717864152395}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717864152377}]
["manifest", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1718129420180
1718135892766
{"lo4yprokxf": 100}
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
True
prob-desc
0
i9CvmMPysmRoHiUrLIH8
early-close-which-cryptocurrency-wi
130
[Early Close] Which one of those cryptocurrencies will have the biggest gain over the month of July 2024? [Add your own]
1717864959135
2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1717864253385
Mario F. Schlitzer
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will CLOSE when the month of July begins.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Then, I will manually resolve it once July is over: the coin with the highest percentage price increase from July 1st, 0:01 to Ju...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.4272882821316974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717864959135
1000
MarioFSchlitzer
1717865027491
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "bx9qa99iaz", "prob": 0.11784957080636187, "text": "Bitcoin", "index": 0, "poolNo": 81.7292813006256, "userId": "2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 611.7758434224388, "textFts": "'bitcoin':1", "contractId": "i9CvmMPysmRoHiUrLIH8", "resolverId": "2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1", "createdTi...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/yqpuzm9myf.jpg
1711562515546
0
[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717864253528}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1717864253528}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdT...
["world-default", "bitcoin", "economics-default", "ethereum", "crypto-speculation"]
0.25
1717864413871
1717865026444
2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1
True
0
lswekDg6xLDmNlxuUPxd
manifest-hot-takes-which-out-of-con
2327.2560583635677
Manifest Hot Takes: Which out of context Manifest quotes will Manifold agree with?
1718089140000
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
cpmm-multi-1
0
9.604061453242108
True
basic
MKT
public
1717864490128
Joshua
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Works like ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0", "label": "/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 51.884296035795316, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718135155836
1200
Joshua
1718089140000
0
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
27
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "ckmd59by44", "prob": 0.72, "text": "\"Mint Chocolate is the best Soylent Flavor\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1590.268379100301, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 628.8246771062334, "textFts": "'best':5 'chocol':2 'flavor':7 'mint':1 'soylent':6", "contractId": "lswekDg6xLDmNlx...
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/agdnrx15bz.jpg
1645516283433
0
[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717864490267}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717864490280}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-39...
["manifest", "politics-default", "manifest-2024"]
0.25
1718052295269
1717869251258
0.93
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
False
0
4pP9TrTUIGcS8zH9BIyp
by-2030-will-the-nasdaq-composite-e
0
By 2030, will the Nasdaq Composite exceed the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of points?
1718521140000
nAvJSIWPmhNruNDH7Svb81POXXv2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1717864967180
Jonas Wang
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1718521140277
JonasWang
1717864967374
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLLu6Wb5H14uX8GKemaf4N4893MdXlrj5OXvkdeRexEXcU_Dw=s96-c
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/yf2zo6y6n6.jpg
1713328086559
0
[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717864967320}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717864967332}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1...
["economics-default", "finance", "stocks"]
0.25
["5dxnnoud1", "mjjc0262dp"]
0
qhJWB6onWlH1CqRlI9vL
early-close-which-one-of-those-cryp
2082.4819492642814
[Early Close] Which one of those cryptocurrencies will have the biggest gain over the month of July 2024? [Add your own]
1719784740000
2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1717865296912
Mario F. Schlitzer
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IMPORTANT: The \"Other\" option is added automatically by the system and cannot be removed, thus for the purpose of the market it will simply be ignored.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Do NOT bet on it, as it will ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.8565214981712, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MarioFSchlitzer
1718143734365
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "crpdiv5d8d", "prob": 0.16421895656967936, "text": "Bitcoin", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.11751108663785, "userId": "2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.45173059577127, "textFts": "'bitcoin':1", "contractId": "qhJWB6onWlH1CqRlI9vL", "createdTime": 1717865296913, "probChanges": {"day": 0...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/fx4vdg35sk.jpg
1711562515546
0
0.25
1718143731216
1717865555581
True
0
0.5
hIylc25DMj3bJ2V1fPo9
{"NO": 147.92919317330427, "YES": 67.59990902055858}
0.6863536834123022
will-english-wikipedia-have-more-pa
84
Will English Wikipedia have more page views in 2024 than in 2023?
1738367940000
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717865304948
alh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Jan 2024-Dec 2024 records more than 91,500,930,083 page views on this resolution source (once updated). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/siteviews...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.18635368341230218}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.29785721806649, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
alh
1717927137349
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
7
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…h/dzjs1m85mo.jpg
1710000956452
0
[{"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717865305077}, {"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f", "createdTime": 1717865305090}, {"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "cr...
["internet", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "wikipedia"]
0.25
0.5
1717927134229
1717865687182
0
0.5
BMe5lIh5R8Q2vFQx6S7f
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
how-accurate-is-the-manifold-ai-cou
0
How accurate is the manifold ai countdown
1717868794974
lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
MKT
public
1717867089352
Boo Lightning
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes for more accurate, no for less accurate ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1717868794974
100
BooLightning
1717868924732
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKC4X2INo4-tyTknyIWpq6Mo4Do5kOyczhqltam6O7u4wE=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/2bdg3cs3kc.jpg
1702671363585
0
[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717867089499}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717867089506}]
["technology-default", "ai"]
0.25
0.5
1717868923284
0.5
lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2
0
0.5
cOkSPLO7ZOKRqYWq2BqV
{"NO": 63.91014819458277, "YES": 156.46967316604713}
0.2900000000000004
if-razib-khan-arm-wrestled-stephen
124.27987007327592
If razib Khan arm wrestled Stephen Hsu, would he win
1735707540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717867365740
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20999999999999958}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.2682922473524973, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1718946267914
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/x73qxkpi7h.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1718946264870
0
0.5
qHpzQ8fdyC96Ef19Eay4
{"NO": 111.54582248413674, "YES": 89.64925603934768}
0.5544162576079941
will-openai-or-anthropic-have-a-maj
23
Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026
1798779540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1717867484044
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05441625760799407}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7530169602068878, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1717920040247
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
3
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/55o9j7khqt.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1717920037143
0