p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | WSE4J8u3AJ1mLKVoLzEz | {"NO": 117.4391752411297, "YES": 85.15046175577862} | 0.5796899435824643 | will-razib-khan-have-a-grimage-lowe | 18 | Will razib Khan have a grimage lower than his real age | 1925009940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717867519053 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07968994358246428} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5608247588702913, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1717920039985 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717920036880 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K1PkKpsKHSn9IsWgWTcj | test-m0vaewbu7y | 10 | test | 1717868144086 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1717867873956 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22959651259434535, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717868144086 | 100 | JavierPrieto | 1717868144086 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "rf7yvwd7p4", "prob": 0.3363720621765182, "text": "foo", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.55213790417772, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.547282098761045, "textFts": "'foo':1", "contractId": "K1PkKpsKHSn9IsWgWTcj", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 17... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1717867874218}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | 1717868100454 | {"mqx05vbqvm": 23, "p89qef0y7d": 23, "puwy4ke7qa": 20, "rf7yvwd7p4": 34} | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6 | test2-3hj5evysk8 | 86 | test2 | 1718521140000 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1717868192690 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.183916603508179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718625630630 | 100 | JavierPrieto | 1718521140000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "un3czjfw1u", "prob": 0.85, "text": "foo", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.83200986178497, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.745929527312349, "textFts": "'foo':1", "contractId": "5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTi... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1717868192834}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | 1717878770298 | 1717876284823 | 0.57 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PrOf9UCuUoBtloMa7Dwj | how-accurate-is-the-ai-countdown | 0 | How accurate is the ai countdown | lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717868899364 | Boo Lightning | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll closes when we get agi", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "a... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | BooLightning | 1719946750023 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKC4X2INo4-tyTknyIWpq6Mo4Do5kOyczhqltam6O7u4wE=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702671363585 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717868899518}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1719946748427 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | dD2Nzl3pqbGfWEbZDvcA | {"NO": 994.9874371066285, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-i-bayesian-outearn-everyone-el | 3571.1011758714185 | Will I (@Bayesian) out-earn everyone else in Diamond League, in June? | 1719885865200 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717871266682 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1674131395361952, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.74328002167805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719885865200 | 100 | Bayesian | 1719885865200 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1717871266826}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717987069440}] | ["manifold-leagues", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719884983665 | 1718423323208 | 0.99 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xv95dCuiHKuvfB9YFpni | {"NO": 503.56212191849215, "YES": 1985.8523039623378} | 0.20228135447568832 | will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi | 2039 | Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030? | 1893538740000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.644912079049366 | False | basic | public | 1717872164313 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (for year 2035): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi-c6zm320ulo?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://man... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2977186455243117} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.838740337785836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718874221547 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21815e162fa", "createdTime": 1717872164536}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1717872164541}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupI... | ["sp-500-changes", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "investing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718874218487 | 1717875344735 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hlXXijoNf6MVc94NkgnE | {"NO": 213.03694743000244, "YES": 46.94021445874191} | 0.8194448538567026 | will-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-i | 541.7480297398391 | Will Donald Trump spank Joe Biden in the first debate on June 27? | 1719637140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717872223654 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spank = beat Joe in the debate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to Manifold. After the debate this market will be closed and I'll ask a poll if Donald won or not", "type": "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3194448538567026} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.620567480440197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1719689252875 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717872223797}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1717872223803}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDq... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-election", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719628847258 | 1719689251747 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000002 | NHNbw1YNKDbANmutcT1e | {"NO": 9778.562967523378, "YES": 102.26451507457796} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-vhdf0ysbm3 | 9750.41641915449 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 10 than it closed on June 7? | 1718049692184 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850679297030883 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717873707776 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.42620728502175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718049692184 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718049692184 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717873707926}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717873707929}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1... | ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718049628345 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n | which-companys-chips-will-gpt6-be-t | 15182.976888240852 | Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on? | 1893484740000 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.13842538529549 | False | plus | public | 1717873927042 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 253.563533849706, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 12000 | ahalekelly | 1719861815562 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 73 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "l1t9fud2gv", "prob": 0.681694305906793, "text": "Nvidia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5621.414208799246, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2624.8248459946967, "textFts": "'nvidia':1", "contractId": "Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n", "createdTime": 1717873927042, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651185961528 | 0 | [{"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1717873927402}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717873927404}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 171787457113... | ["semiconductors", "ai", "openai"] | 0.25 | 1719861812087 | 1718103552404 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | FfLKFb0a8zEQIvQE4isE | {"NO": 9949.874371066255, "YES": 100.50378152592202} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-87j2uvibjv | 10202.341039071505 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 14 than it closed on June 7 (5346.99)? | 1718395544428 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923055 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717874026643 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.81939385769638, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718395544428 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718395544428 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717874026906}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717874026959}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1... | ["finance", "stocks", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718388980684 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | NdKIxJP74QVtXHrPDPvi | {"NO": 1009.4347180723737, "YES": 943.9477792036782} | 0.1482724745446268 | will-advice-for-newly-busy-people-m | 10 | Will "Advice for newly busy people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888513794005988 | False | basic | public | 1717877518515 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00827247454462679} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5652819276262651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717911550302 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717877518651}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717911547176 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc | what-are-the-top-frictions-preventi | 15000.774503631586 | What are the top frictions preventing wider adoption of forecasting best practices? | 1718365728010 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1717877609661 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Imagine 2 different worlds:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We reduce all the frictions listed here by p%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 326.26151033443216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718365728010 | 2000 | JavierPrieto | 1718365728010 | 0 | 57 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2yrh312jdy", "prob": 0.097404886971489, "text": "People don’t know about forecasting", "index": 0, "poolNo": 61.07667515224264, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 565.9624504115513, "textFts": "'forecast':6 'know':4 'peopl':1", "contractId": "AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc", "resolver... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717877609885}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1717877609889}] | ["manifest-2024", "metaforecasting"] | 0.25 | 1718290162753 | 1717937835923 | {"0mi1hn2zho": 5.05050505050505, "2yrh312jdy": 10.1010101010101, "583c5qpbwh": 1.0101010101010102, "99cheydfw6": 2.0202020202020203, "cfinpmkehf": 1.0101010101010102, "dfnokmmj59": 5.05050505050505, "f27so79yuf": 2.0202020202020203, "frd5z9gplh": 11.11111111111111, "g1ebu8jqq3": 7.070707070707071, "gsf4qzwgws": 7.07070... | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nCvNZPM0dKpKBcnMrEUY | would-these-interventions-succeed-i | 3310.0419278109357 | Would these interventions succeed if pursued very aggressively? | 1718365767360 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717877792310 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Very aggressively roughly means: Assume the forecasting ecosystem coordinates very well such that an implausibly high amount of resources (billions of dollars, hundreds of FTEs) get deployed. Would the intervention succeed in that case?", "type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.00643397524344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718365767360 | 1800 | JavierPrieto | 1718365767360 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pluhczsf2x", "prob": 0.45, "text": "Incentives for good rationales", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.48230365073653, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.51884839935332, "textFts": "'good':3 'incent':1 'rational':4", "contractId": "nCvNZPM0dKpKBcnMrEUY", "resolution": "MKT", "res... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1717877792535}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717877792657}] | ["metaforecasting", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717960429187 | 1717887679469 | 0.07 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MC22bnhzXmYth6Hy4GRc | have-you-heard-of-this-orgproject | 0 | Have you heard of this org/project? | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717877994843 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JavierPrieto | 1717922244137 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1717877995005}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717877995006}] | ["metaforecasting", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717922243031 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TIY2Y3M356XrTFUpd5vJ | when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u | 6727.64180335127 | When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? | 1800086340000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.412577388481578 | False | plus | public | 1717881111146 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24. As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 182.82875472184003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 11000 | OlegEterevsky | 1720035572204 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 43 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "arizu301tf", "prob": 0.1367110634612503, "text": "Before 2025-01-01", "index": 0, "poolNo": 496.9091774650709, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3137.830871250269, "textFts": "'-01':3,4 '2025':2", "contractId": "TIY2Y3M356XrTFUpd5vJ", "createdTime": 1717881111146, "probChan... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1717881111344}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1717881111348}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "c... | ["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "russia", "politics-default", "wars"] | 0.25 | 1720035567676 | 1717974610269 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RGZ4rRDtaKwUmw5nJ9SF | who-will-be-the-first-player-to-ach | 2767.7920835920163 | Who will be the first player to achieve a sub 1h time on Deep Dip 2? | 1718374993872 | ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | h8fdtgdp0r | public | 1717881111236 | Kiudee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Needs to be a contiguous run (not segmented) where a full replay or stream is available with the in-game time being below 1 hour.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.32798467153467, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718374993872 | 1000 | kiudee | 1718375085200 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpAlqI7VYParAwlJSRbnbvlFS51l8h8NBliwuHiasXJRw1=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "2qlg1bdqeo", "prob": 0.014155699750987122, "text": "BrenTM", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.64553006199435, "userId": "ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1577.1008943714007, "textFts": "'brentm':1", "contractId": "RGZ4rRDtaKwUmw5nJ9SF", "resolverId": "ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2", "createdT... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700306028468 | 0 | [{"name": "Trackmania", "slug": "trackmania", "groupId": "OLB194lFbKJFt2EBwqjo", "createdTime": 1717881111381}, {"name": "Deep Dip 2", "slug": "deep-dip-2", "groupId": "73cbe896-c57d-4b3a-a55f-f8dee33d7dc2", "createdTime": 1717881111386}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "creat... | ["trackmania", "deep-dip-2", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1718374939788 | 1718375084132 | {"h8fdtgdp0r": 100} | ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1N2AHFvhcyilrMPyjOjH | {"NO": 1168.3396440207441, "YES": 855.9154909428414} | 0.5771701520429942 | will-the-next-president-allow-as-ma | 614.4704744836373 | Will the next US president allow Hollywood to make as many true-to-physics time travel movies as past administrations? | 1735711140000 | siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574095211269338 | False | basic | public | 1717884045761 | AMB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hot Tub Time Machine 2, looping at you 😜 ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07717015204299416} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.189881495618344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Eyeamb | 1718126637498 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711991197371 | 0 | [{"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029-4aca-bc21-094d95940b06", "createdTime": 1717884045892}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717884045901}] | ["physics-a6878c3ad095", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718126634190 | 1717921923021 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42400025116894335 | IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j | {"NO": 6402.735556551987, "YES": 18100.12359615129} | 0 | will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over | 12409.340324926972 | Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm? | 1717947144586 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9197610051050034 | True | plus | NO | public | 1717884929974 | Raj Thimmiah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve only drank a handful of times and all from March onwards of this year. I’d like to try drinking to see if this makes socializing more fun but I’m not sure if I’ll regret this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 280.88815426446433, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717947144586 | 10000 | raj | 1717947144586 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c | 60 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644725300473 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717884930116}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717884930120}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtN... | ["manifest", "manifest-2024", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717946654160 | 1717924854561 | 0.21 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | clkpmklvP4AxawEcRjL8 | {"NO": 180.80637674805598, "YES": 5530.778382852302} | 0 | will-polymarket-have-merch-containi | 5623 | Will polymarket have merch containing “retardio” at manifest | 1718002740000 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.885757650704303 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717885914429 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Worn or given away", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.431501857171526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718045354158 | 1000 | Gen | 1718002740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668776584415 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717885914559}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717885914567}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717994387655 | 0.03 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iPSVKheWA71dKzqif3hR | what-percent-will-fiona-lali-revolu | 381.62270598510736 | What percent will Fiona Lali, Revolutionary Communist, get in Stratford and Bow
in the UK general election of 2024? | 1720155911480 | tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | c8ad7zpos2 | public | 1717886485129 | MaybeNotDepends | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fiona Lali is running as an independent Revolutionary Communist in a new constituency that is partially made up of the one that George Galloway once won.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4557573379098874, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720155911480 | 100 | MaybeNotDepends | 1720155911480 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c8ad7zpos2", "prob": 0.9656377028652118, "text": "<5%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 118.53620387533672, "userId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.218120571212523, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "iPSVKheWA71dKzqif3hR", "resolverId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "createdTime": 1717... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670574693580 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717886485315}, {"name": "Communism", "slug": "communism", "groupId": "de415ac0-ca6c-43c3-8000-0ccc230e9c09", "createdTime": 1717886485325}] | ["-uk-general-election-2024", "communism"] | 0.25 | 1720155895862 | {"c8ad7zpos2": 100} | tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 7qD4WONyQgXNQbCGVBBm | {"NO": 999.196238835721, "YES": 1004.9515941379419} | 0.13930991620166047 | will-graphical-tensor-notation-for | 5 | Will "Graphical tensor notation for interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.89505752141666 | False | basic | public | 1717887121258 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0006900837983395414} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.048405862058060835, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717920042512 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717887121424}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717920039366 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wsuY9KRIKIpAN4DPVXyi | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-w58jvibdj4 | 80.41084634979772 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1717973622357 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a040qb6v8z | public | 1717887506168 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 3]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environme... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1513498302450464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717973622357 | 120 | CrowTheFox | 1717973674184 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vvbi9zixxm", "prob": 0.3164238206544532, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.308242171919439, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.589721156070667, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "wsuY9KRIKIpAN4DPVXyi", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 17178... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717887506329}, {"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1717887506330}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1717887506327}] | ["fun", "dd", "dice"] | 0.25 | 1717972462040 | 1717973672932 | {"a040qb6v8z": 100} | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hypBbovMWoobGeml3P4Q | percentage-of-yc-winter-2024-batch | 280 | Percentage of YC Winter 2024 Batch to raise at least $1M one year after the end of Demo Day (4/4/24-4/4/25). | 1735718340000 | g5X9yG1gB5OepvOI3d43AvS1wtv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717888232205 | Lucy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is a list of YC companies in W24. By the end of the day on 4/4/25 PST, what percentage of the companies in this batch have raised at least $1M?", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ycombinator.com/companies?batch=W24", "type": "text", "mar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.161086085803208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lucyqiu | 1719974448895 | 0 | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zlzt9fqt3i", "prob": 0.06034214238940081, "text": "Less than 10%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.23516910509181, "userId": "g5X9yG1gB5OepvOI3d43AvS1wtv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 657.6930640116443, "textFts": "'10':3 'less':1", "contractId": "hypBbovMWoobGeml3P4Q", "createdTime": 1717888232206, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715749522939 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717888232465}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1719974445727 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | IBmM8isbl7ojJt1RteaN | {"NO": 53.21747912536013, "YES": 187.90818664002853} | 0.2207043325580276 | will-basedbeffjezos-make-forbes-30 | 90 | Will basedbeffjezos make Forbes 30 under 30 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717896519122 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.27929566744197243} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0918133599714634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1717944482473 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717944479358 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | xPQK1xUe6sObiKdmWcP9 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-touch-reality-as-soon-as-possi | 0 | Will "Touch reality as soon as possible (when doing..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1717897477736 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717897477897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717897477897}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ajZUDxzdjcTl7XoYGqg7 | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-two-easy-things-that-maybe-jus | 50 | Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717900016811 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717901092384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717900016973}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717901089107 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | TIbZx4Kd88oaEP7CuuFG | {"NO": 541.559708403777, "YES": 1846.5184622900663} | 0.22677637401058362 | will-shuko-be-banned-in-modern-in-2 | 4269.867005128308 | Will Shuko be banned in Modern in 2024? | 1735804740000 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629695209360957 | False | basic | public | 1717900142284 | Aryeh Zax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.13335075571839647, "month": -0.2732236259894164} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 86.42901636967474, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | azax | 1720061605421 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c | 11 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663132225081 | 0 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1717900142466}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720061602298 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m9nonRyCZUepEKUATpz8 | how-much-will-my-political-markets | 2459.1863169489934 | How much will my Political Markets Batch Sale sell for? | 1718002740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717900366125 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F43RmeGoH0q.jpeg?alt=media&token=04949285-2d6a-44c7-b1d6-f7811eef626d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.59919094232681, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1718044890570 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ibgqwiuxvc", "prob": 0.014102360191644396, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.60221346713061, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1580.123370050609, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "m9nonRyCZUepEKUATpz8", "createdTime": 1717900366125, "probChanges": {"day": 0.00293952010... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717900366299}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717900366292}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717972138832 | 1718044888547 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aqLnXw7kkmiKrXFNRlmh | nhl-finals-game-2-oilers-vs-panther | 8211.616403122844 | NHL finals game 2: Oilers vs Panthers | 1718075563788 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717902234754 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may add more outcomes of the game. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is am unlinked multiple choice, each choice has its own resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 66.32094301593014, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718075563788 | 1000 | Haws | 1718141115493 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e2sc6e9slk", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Will the game go into overtime?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.56297269074014, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1243.7342963832732, "textFts": "'game':3 'go':4 'overtim':6", "contractId": "aqLnXw7kkmiKrXFNRlmh", "resolution": "NO", "resolver... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1717902234901}, {"name": "Florida Panthers", "slug": "florida-panthers", "groupId": "10566b7e-e1be-4c02-9bc8-8adf18baf199", "createdTime": 1717902234903}, {"name": "Edmonton Oilers", "slug": "edmonton-oilers", "groupId": "156daa78-b50d... | ["nhl", "florida-panthers", "edmonton-oilers"] | 0.25 | 1718075525154 | 1718141114513 | 0.01 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | D10GfmwiLQsM882YbvGW | {"NO": 799.5900589021114, "YES": 1250.6408613597132} | 0.39000000000000007 | will-there-be-another-parkour-civil | 508.0084284233264 | Will there be another Parkour Civilization video within the next month? | 1718517540000 | imyZodrqRtdoMuvslNbL6WYkhRz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578116169455097 | False | basic | public | 1717903106906 | Lattice Magnet (Lattice) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The most recent video was \"Minecraft but I survive AGAIN in PARKOUR CIVILIZATION [FULL MOVIE]\". (This market's existence is NOT a recommendation.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It was supposed to be the finale o... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.10999999999999993} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.695554149937303, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LatticeMagnetLattice | 1718504001191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmevMY0Vxn9470QkxcVyMT92c5s9fEhBNlpqcVD=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662605089461 | 0 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1717903107054}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718503998149 | 1718327852830 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4HmBj3HgJP306w4g0rXZ | how-much-will-lightcones-last-compl | 2608.1451111229812 | How much will lightcone's last complete set of HPMOR go for at Manifest Night Market? | 1718521140000 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.52528791334901 | True | plus | wptc9uxp75 | public | 1717903174834 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's an auction at the Manifest Night market for their last complete set of HPMOR. It is signed by Eliezer Yudkowsky, \"to the highest bidder.\" How high is the winning bid going to be?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 168.31098409263114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719274900078 | 10000 | SkylerCrossman | 1719274920961 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1pjkpk2x40", "prob": 0.36503295656269075, "text": "250-450", "index": 0, "poolNo": 541.5797406225096, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 942.0664093642208, "textFts": "'-450':2 '250':1", "contractId": "4HmBj3HgJP306w4g0rXZ", "resolverId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "cre... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1717903175024}] | ["lesswrong"] | 0.25 | 1718070630353 | 1719274919779 | {"wptc9uxp75": 100} | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dNdekCRcgwdIafZpRP3J | how-many-executive-assistant-calend | 10155.999999999998 | How many executive assistant calendar appointments with Samuel get at night market? | 1717913268542 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.492294188060818 | True | plus | r9wwhf2t8r | public | 1717905555280 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Samuel Cottrell VI is signing up calendar appointments for prospective clients at Manifest Night Market. How many appointments will he get by the end of the night?", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 990.5027188761184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717913268542 | 10000 | SkylerCrossman | 1717913268542 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9o5fvymduz", "prob": 0.013351662829443544, "text": "1-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.09185382858345, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6140.241890440816, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1", "contractId": "dNdekCRcgwdIafZpRP3J", "resolverId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717905555549}] | ["manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717910714248 | {"r9wwhf2t8r": 100} | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3h0XC8CBwFMIMGsfFQbJ | which-horse-will-win-the-2024-breed | 825 | Which horse will win the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic? | 1730609940000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717905779952 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.537238372231172, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | ovals | 1719664791960 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "w583bco0ny", "prob": 0.2848759417627315, "text": "Dornoch", "index": 0, "poolNo": 210.38556460138463, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 528.1308692525183, "textFts": "'dornoch':1", "contractId": "3h0XC8CBwFMIMGsfFQbJ", "createdTime": 1717905779952, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1717905780124}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717905780121}, {"name": "Breeders' Cup", "slug": "breeders-cup", "groupId": "c3af2b35-03... | ["horse-racing", "sports-default", "breeders-cup", "gradegroup-1-race", "del-mar"] | 0.25 | 1719664788894 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | CTc3ngpJlrmnZKuQY6u8 | {"NO": 223.25158924901078, "YES": 44.79251428237842} | 1 | will-the-bayes-g-chandelier-survive | 371.20585572981184 | Will the Bayes Ground chandelier survive 2024 Karaoke Komp intact? | 1717911689815 | NUDjzaESynYzAIKht7q5vrnTVDF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717906769558 | Connor Harris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Intact” = no missing or broken pieces. Intentional damage doesn’t count", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.224048537128366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717911689815 | 100 | ConnorHarris | 1717911689815 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2eRVcKWjG8CAsqDVrNhsXJEXukdSDGq-NrEH9H2BPryxPVQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715604173446 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717906769695}] | ["manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717909671382 | 0.83 | NUDjzaESynYzAIKht7q5vrnTVDF2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3CGq4eN2ekLAZDML1oX4 | how-much-mana-or-mana-equivalent-wi | 1388.605180232722 | How much mana (or mana equivalent) will the Moisture Meter auction for at Manifest 2024 | 1717908804717 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717908735546 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much will the moisture meter auction for in mana?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Auction is here, can use USD or mana: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forms.gle/WdMZC2y4EXECSen38", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.945288459059913, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717908804717 | 1000 | TonyPepperoni | 1717908804717 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "syiioqqjw7", "prob": 0.0931416764728002, "text": "<0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.12025303892864, "userId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 780.0774165008272, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "3CGq4eN2ekLAZDML1oX4", "resolverId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "createdTime": 171790... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "Bet on Love", "slug": "bet-on-love", "groupId": "a70117bb-5f27-4244-9823-3cc6a34ad223", "createdTime": 1717908735698}, {"name": "moisture", "slug": "moisture", "groupId": "15c38dc4-f0b6-4a80-b930-ff0416c77504", "createdTime": 1717908735701}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId":... | ["bet-on-love", "moisture", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1717908794443 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mJSxEfDg8xB4Pfrzq3gb | how-much-mana-or-mana-equivalent-wi-a04vameist | 1160 | How much mana (or mana equivalent) will the Moisture Meter auction for at Manifest 2024 | 1717913416853 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717908922739 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much will the moisture meter auction for in mana?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Auction is here, can use USD or mana: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forms.gle/WdMZC2y4EXECSen38", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.81126798896552, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717956267612 | 1000 | TonyPepperoni | 1717956297523 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "t9pn6fbmey", "prob": 0.06, "text": "<0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.258831424539864, "userId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 395.9011338222333, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "mJSxEfDg8xB4Pfrzq3gb", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "createdTime":... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717908922897}, {"name": "moisture", "slug": "moisture", "groupId": "15c38dc4-f0b6-4a80-b930-ff0416c77504", "createdTime": 1717908922901}, {"name": "Bet on Love", "slug": "bet-on-love", "groupId": "a70117bb-5f27-... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "moisture", "bet-on-love"] | 0.25 | 1717910918831 | 1717956296399 | 0.2 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g4JdqoPd68LkPRFxVW7R | who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp-en6nwx7dhd | 0 | Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition? | 1717949038196 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717911351854 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One song per performer, using karaoke songs from youtube. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will select the performer with the most votes from those who perform in the karaoke komp.", "type":... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717949040341 | ian | 1717949039797 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "🎤 Karaoke", "slug": "-karaoke", "groupId": "dd124855-734d-4f30-9135-14a9f3a0b9e4", "createdTime": 1717911352070}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717911352073}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5... | ["-karaoke", "manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717917071738 | ["yfzq311rec"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | qjhg3K40PMPzR7mC1gu1 | {"NO": 114.01082460437469, "YES": 8771.096985484206} | 0 | general-election-2024-will-rishi-su | 16925.571388457127 | UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak announce his resignation before election day? | 1720047540000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.856820295604765 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717916629061 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It would be an understatement to say that Rishi Sunak’s election campaign is going badly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumours are now swirling on Twitter and other disreputable sources tha... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03168235596508722, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 149.22253610169884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720074661419 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720074728491 | 0 | 65 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1717916629231}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717916629235}, {"name": ... | ["uk-conservative-party", "-uk-general-election-2024", "politics-default", "uk-politics", "labour-party-uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720046213250 | 1720074727398 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | hj0uEsdpRoXbFg9VO6v0 | {"NO": 429.86879269842916, "YES": 23.262912241725374} | 1 | will-vince-beat-tyler-at-chess-righ | 379.49022181474635 | Will Vince beat Tyler at chess right now | 1717917464766 | 6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717917019131 | Joe and Seth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.332184047965769, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717917464766 | 100 | JoeandSeth | 1717917464766 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702518999476 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717917019308}] | ["manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717917428314 | 0.95 | 6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | iwdYdkQWHFuAaqA2WVu7 | {"NO": 790.0146257073714, "YES": 1265.799350365964} | 0.3842831281925238 | will-the-project-be-an-issue-in-the | 1629.128281 | Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election? | 1856735940000 | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578979358962162 | False | basic | public | 1717917294931 | Gordan Knott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any serious candidate in the 2028 election (with over 4% support) publicly state their position, for or against, a government program to build an AGI supercluster, similar to The Project described by Leopold Aschenbrenner in June 2024?", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1157168718074762} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.884671211191076, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GordanKnott | 1718124433929 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698871173640 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717917295097}, {"name": "2028 US presidential election", "slug": "2028-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "c83fd20c-226d-4b9e-ad21-b116412d4009", "createdTime": 1717917295101}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "gr... | ["politics-default", "2028-us-presidential-election", "ai", "technology-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718124430730 | 1717954520291 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | E8R9iGZdS88XfjIcQW2b | {"NO": 336.34534102987226, "YES": 29.73134686325824} | 1 | will-vince-beat-ari-at-chess-right | 290.7815823747018 | Will Vince beat Ari at chess right now? | 1717918133854 | ilWqL8NjkIUphNgOQi1f1VDooBJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717917564432 | M | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.339675281986824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717918133854 | 100 | qmk | 1717918133854 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704352984008 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717918088616 | 0.92 | ilWqL8NjkIUphNgOQi1f1VDooBJ3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 7t6rIhl0RzXamAsPM8Nx | {"NO": 216.5147057460953, "YES": 46.186239246616836} | 1 | will-the-group-singing-at-manifest | 119 | Will the group singing at Manifest 2024 Saturday June 8th still be going at 3am | 1717927860210 | 2FMogQwA0OUT6iqcbsq8EMtW3yw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717924753630 | spider | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ambiguous cases resolve to my subjective judgement", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.485294253904685, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717927860210 | 100 | spider | 1717927860210 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680935111074 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717924753767}] | ["manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717927186762 | 0.82 | 2FMogQwA0OUT6iqcbsq8EMtW3yw2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 4uLirf8bawE6H5jj6vWh | {"NO": 1290.6798183855897, "YES": 774.7854934702732} | 0.6248857392942064 | will-there-be-a-session-about-cool | 750.9733916915185 | Will there be a session about "Cool Poker" / "Poker 2" / "RPS Poker" at a Manifest held in 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580470668070273 | False | basic | public | 1717925043320 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poker 2 / Cool Poker is a variant of poker developed at Manifest 2024 that features teams and simultaneous betting. It is sure to be used to train quants somewhere in the future.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.12488573929420643} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.518524031841608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718446932584 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1717925053632}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717925056828}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "cre... | ["poker", "manifest", "manifold-users", "gaming", "coolfold"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718446929534 | 1718416291278 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | d0hxFepzlLYgME6ZbQBe | {"NO": 805.5992007007833, "YES": 1241.3120558338526} | 0.3935682107023247 | will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi-c6zm320ulo | 1523.7276825808156 | Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer that 365 days before 2035? | 2051305140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57760274476928 | False | basic | public | 1717926593640 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (for year 2030): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.marke... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.10643178929767533} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.80031298860494, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718676099726 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1717926593781}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1717926593787}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2... | ["investing", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "sp-500-changes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718676096610 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | Wt5h0WdHH6cyiDMrm8XF | {"NO": 69.56749724480599, "YES": 143.74528905086655} | 0.32612905420671107 | will-givewell-update-its-article-on | 72 | Will Givewell update its Article on Malaria Vaccines soon? | 1722463140000 | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717934793390 | Schwabilismus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Give well has an Article on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Malaria Vaccines", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/malaria-vaccines#Vaccines_in_the_pipeline", "class"... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.17387094579328893} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.145771527623495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Schwabilismus | 1717978347563 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681912243026 | 0 | [{"name": "Vaccines", "slug": "vaccines", "groupId": "6a47d989-7821-49d7-b60d-c70b53373165", "createdTime": 1717934793578}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717934793574}, {"name": "Charity", "slug": "charity", "groupId": "10d5fec2-4d96-4f07-ae53-c76e8... | ["vaccines", "science-default", "charity", "givewell", "malaria"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717978344401 | 1717935296583 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K5SKs19todVEQunjC3aS | at-what-ages-do-people-enjoy-their | 0 | At what ages do people enjoy their birthdays the most? | 1718596740000 | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717941200900 | For Truth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rephrased: on average, which birthday celebrations are the most enjoyed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, \"1 - 10\" means you should average (using the mean, not the median) the enjoyment of all 1st thr... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718596740759 | ForTruth | 1718634222717 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714184615024 | 0 | [{"name": "birthday", "slug": "birthday", "groupId": "94d98112-5419-4c5a-9222-9d6c6466ecb0", "createdTime": 1717941201059}, {"name": "Aging", "slug": "aging", "groupId": "2c9d9cb5-e1de-478a-85c7-d829d9dfdb39", "createdTime": 1717941201060}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdT... | ["birthday", "aging", "polls", "fun"] | 0.25 | 1718634221668 | ["b4x12krhym"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b5Giam4Ipw6kpPDKvPq2 | nba-finals-player-props-live-gm-2-s | 51028.37727718951 | NBA Finals Player Props Live: Celtics vs Mavericks Game 3 (Wednesday, June 12) | 1718276659382 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717948858230 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When applicable ties will resolve NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game/First Half/Totals: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Re... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 442.7522012766142, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718276659382 | 6000 | ReeMARKable | 1718276659382 | 0 | 26 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "sd5ekp0oqu", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Will Luca Doncic score OVER 31.5 points?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1748.315763488613, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.659755186753646, "textFts": "'31.5':6 'doncic':3 'luca':2 'point':7 'score':4", "contractId": "b5Giam4Ipw6kpPDKvPq2",... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1717948858395}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717948858406}, {"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-b... | ["20232024-nba-season", "entertainment", "prop-bets", "nba", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1718247757364 | 1718272934517 | 0.01 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | hXODTDBixsMLI0QAaRR6 | {"NO": 987.1346021191658, "YES": 1013.0330735577669} | 0.4935259249128114 | will-the-nebraska-right-to-abortion | 521 | Will the “Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” be added to the Nebraska constitution? | 1735711140000 | xYFf9soYqYRFt8rsEpHn59onO3i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570359369663713 | False | basic | public | 1717950157666 | Jonathan Milligan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the “", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” ballot initiative is added to the Nebraska constitution at the next election this market resolves Yes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.006474075087188613} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.555367948925653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JonathanMilligan | 1718032990298 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJHGgUOtO6mUmJcAzJbhp4Hk1QWsR1OlLR_0boh2jyXaQ=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711408470992 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717950157826}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717950157844}, {"name": "Abortion", "slug": "abortion", "groupId": "e1bf3240-d8e5-47ff-b924-09f98... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "abortion"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718032987188 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | qrbTyNNkM0EvToS2N7Ox | {"NO": 1388.9462673398953, "YES": 719.9702562397872} | 0.6586065649399405 | will-one-of-the-monthly-has-weak-ag | 457 | Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024? | 1735707540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.587171033438349 | False | basic | public | 1717951080323 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask \"has weak AGI been achieved,\" rather than providing a definition o... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.15860656493994052} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.191769102845823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SteveSokolowski | 1718030114705 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717951080564}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717951080569}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 171795108057... | ["ai-safety", "science-default", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718030111558 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | eSk4MX67MIHzkK84Rpfd | {"NO": 1634.4305788024524, "YES": 611.8338783973927} | 0.7276216179994701 | will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-make-i | 651 | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make it to the NHL playoffs in the 2025 season? | 1740815940000 | rixOAeRIOpM5l6X6aBeL9UahcOb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.608205228256946 | False | basic | public | 1717951242413 | Tristan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make it to the NHL playoffs in the 2025 Season?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.22762161799947012} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.569421197547488, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Tristanmv6r | 1719347504300 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717167099599 | 0 | [{"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1717951242666}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1717951242667}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717951242668}, {"na... | ["nhl", "hockey", "world-default", "canada", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719347501212 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | JAd5hYfInZxGkfnwPu9U | {"NO": 292.85558658190575, "YES": 3414.6522921812852} | 0.0789898757220176 | will-a-majority-of-manifold-respond | 3200 | Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls? | 1735707540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.819355839199481 | False | basic | public | 1717951378490 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask \"has weak AGI been achieved,\" rather than providing a definition of... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4210101242779824} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.80895993952435, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SteveSokolowski | 1718048214040 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717951378732}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717951378731}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime"... | ["technology-default", "ai", "science-default", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718048210919 | 1718031436215 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | jF9buA1Zq52N2O0QkV0P | {"NO": 1070.8942302797059, "YES": 656.554854126737} | 0.20981400533734995 | will-talking-publicly-about-ai-risk | 75 | Will "Talking publicly about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.857088870664317 | False | basic | public | 1717951961569 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.06981400533734994} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.105769720294069, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717961170026 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717951961735}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717961166913 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3044634666194111 | R2HaGtNpurtmLWxLRutR | {"NO": 789.5508916843519, "YES": 35839.38450437381} | 0 | do-not-bet-if-you-already-know-the | 118509.83133446999 | Will Athens win the Peloponnesian War? | 1717971565740 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.778489510745569 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717955017292 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1206.7370804284565, "platformFee": 206.73708042845638, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717971565740 | 3500 | MichaelWheatley | 1719702556563 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717955017439}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717955017446}] | ["manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717968416330 | 1719702554922 | 0.01 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mY1hVb4WVqiOnI5BkJgZ | after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-s | 5551 | After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1718038740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 054kbxj6kc | public | 1717956595779 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.912482458364025, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718040140124 | 1000 | ovals | 1718038740000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9o5la7beqf", "prob": 0.002479895628319273, "text": "Joao Almeida", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.14912731927484, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4484.655934779673, "textFts": "'almeida':2 'joao':1", "contractId": "mY1hVb4WVqiOnI5BkJgZ", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCM... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Tour de Suisse", "slug": "tour-de-suisse", "groupId": "6924001a-3620-4733-a07a-2f20dde6cc1f", "createdTime": 1717956595929}, {"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd961021076", "createdTime": 1717956595938}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "g... | ["tour-de-suisse", "racing-sports", "sports-default", "maillot-jaune", "road-bicycle-racing"] | 0.25 | 1718033402522 | {"054kbxj6kc": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DCPVk0omM8y2ybLgAZQk | after-stage-3-of-the-2024-tour-de-s | 1300 | After Stage 3 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1718118735911 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 8otalrl1dm | public | 1717956654232 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.976803291173107, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718119112317 | 1000 | ovals | 1718118735911 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b8hldm9ysr", "prob": 0.11901837647638133, "text": "Joao Almeida", "index": 0, "poolNo": 82.18803331496326, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 608.3610713543742, "textFts": "'almeida':2 'joao':1", "contractId": "DCPVk0omM8y2ybLgAZQk", "resolverId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PH... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd961021076", "createdTime": 1717956654704}, {"name": "Maillot Jaune", "slug": "maillot-jaune", "groupId": "d35ec746-d3e1-4d79-b4b2-77470ae096c3", "createdTime": 1717956654704}, {"name": "Tour de Suisse", "slug": "tour-de-suisse", ... | ["racing-sports", "maillot-jaune", "tour-de-suisse", "road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1718110103164 | 1718119074929 | {"8otalrl1dm": 100} | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zUJcxzHx75EYeiNOWD17 | after-stage-4-of-the-2024-tour-de-s | 5061 | After Stage 4 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1718200740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | h7ma85vwb3 | public | 1717956672481 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.10032041402652, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718209405434 | 1200 | ovals | 1718200740000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6c84shbrf5", "prob": 0.027511681071946573, "text": "Joao Almeida", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.36235869840388, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1709.5221766715038, "textFts": "'almeida':2 'joao':1", "contractId": "zUJcxzHx75EYeiNOWD17", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQC... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Tour de Suisse", "slug": "tour-de-suisse", "groupId": "6924001a-3620-4733-a07a-2f20dde6cc1f", "createdTime": 1717956672651}, {"name": "Maillot Jaune", "slug": "maillot-jaune", "groupId": "d35ec746-d3e1-4d79-b4b2-77470ae096c3", "createdTime": 1717956672653}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racin... | ["tour-de-suisse", "maillot-jaune", "road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default", "racing-sports"] | 0.25 | 1718199649439 | {"h7ma85vwb3": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xdE5ONincTNqomR6pzr8 | after-stage-5-of-the-2024-tour-de-s | 7328.259185254572 | After Stage 5 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1718294340000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | kwwa28haea | public | 1717956692358 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.529982448646145, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718294407847 | 1000 | ovals | 1718294340000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4im46me1vc", "prob": 0.008623591680478337, "text": "Joao Almeida", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.85498129620646, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2397.508743347313, "textFts": "'almeida':2 'joao':1", "contractId": "xdE5ONincTNqomR6pzr8", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCM... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Maillot Jaune", "slug": "maillot-jaune", "groupId": "d35ec746-d3e1-4d79-b4b2-77470ae096c3", "createdTime": 1717956692525}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717956692527}, {"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f... | ["maillot-jaune", "sports-default", "racing-sports", "road-bicycle-racing", "tour-de-suisse"] | 0.25 | 1718291596919 | {"kwwa28haea": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | qqZXGbHsVgvhtABIgNiU | {"NO": 1180.3768935804865, "YES": 847.1870344451222} | 0.5821650687630401 | will-israel-free-another-living-hos | 6687.31858079078 | Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months? | 1728507540000 | JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574607847059308 | False | basic | public | 1717957221953 | Shai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a living hostage crosses into Israel as a result of an operation by Israeli security forces.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-------------", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08216506876304008} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 162.17800851330418, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Shai | 1719043392343 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676635700748 | 0 | [{"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1717957222119}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717957222126}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId... | ["israeli-politics", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "gaza", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718599877272 | 1719043390979 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.510581785193177 | 7ZPAWBfmAEVtmSU1b0sC | {"NO": 9894.013247052186, "YES": 10097.650306776803} | 0.5054899192885175 | will-manifold-help-me-pivot-my-care | 1359.5990699039983 | Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7281549547047703 | False | plus | public | 1717959607998 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve been a cartographer working in tech for the past 10+ years, primarily building global base maps for mobile and web applications. I left my last job recently. It’s time for me to pivot, but I’m not sure where to go next. I have an intuition tha... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.0054899192885174974} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.721791640314905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | BlueDragon | 1718034964037 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717959608204}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1717959608212}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "gro... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718034960929 | 1717971032073 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ugtZjha26CXzqFdgjwK1 | how-many-times-will-dave-grohl-appe | 8037.999999999997 | How many times will Dave Grohl appear on stage at Glastonbury 2024? | 1719826447357 | Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.778579868030365 | True | plus | exznvpjisw | public | 1717959623495 | John-George Salter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dave Grohl has performed multiple times at Glastonbury Festival and has appeared as the guest of Guns & Roses, The Pretenders, Bruce Springsteen and Paul McCartney. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 415.363455148113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719826447357 | 10000 | JohnGeorgeSalter | 1719826447357 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ8vxe5FOwq_easpGoev2Dg0VygdTJB1THjyWfg3_nghBFL=s96-c | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "exznvpjisw", "prob": 0.38273452304770555, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1760.7505271011396, "userId": "Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2839.6981418099554, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "ugtZjha26CXzqFdgjwK1", "resolverId": "Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1", "createdTi... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708947567231 | 0 | [{"name": "Music Festivals", "slug": "music-festivals", "groupId": "56a31ff0-d9eb-46f4-b929-2e263b5e9e1f", "createdTime": 1717959623634}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1717959623635}, {"name": "United Kingdom", "slug": "united-kingdom", "groupId":... | ["music-festivals", "celebrities", "united-kingdom", "entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.25 | 1719826246928 | 1719604898541 | {"exznvpjisw": 100} | Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 60R6kt9Yk541qbBPavSX | {"NO": 886.4052604279178, "YES": 1128.1521496355342} | 0.43999999999999984 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-jgos0206r2 | 4312.738210043427 | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of September 6th? | 1725692340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.515522753538614 | False | basic | public | 1717960365507 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Israel time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both sides must agree", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0631156909781288, "week": 0.0631156909781288, "month": -0.060000000000000164} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 133.38703432517184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 476.7711725818405 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720205916587 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717960365699}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1717960365706}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", ... | ["world-default", "palestine", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720205913435 | 1718031605715 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kW5LIBzRcfKQEYKxIpCa | which-parties-or-coalitions-will-ga | 3643.884124533212 | Which parties or coalitions will gain seats in the 2024 French legislative election? | 1719730740000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717960537679 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "French president Macron called for a snap election in the wake of today's EU vote: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2024/0609/1453880-france-election/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.84788776404975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1719677791250 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 35 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "py5ezyxj36", "prob": 0.07260218764644216, "text": "Ensemble", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.632700865987715, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 595.6716480481173, "textFts": "'ensembl':1", "contractId": "kW5LIBzRcfKQEYKxIpCa", "createdTime": 1717960537680, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1717960537835}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1717960537838}, {"name": "European Elections", "slug": "european-elections", "groupId": "6091a62e-fa6b-4... | ["elections", "elections-world", "european-elections", "politics-default", "french-legislative-snap-election-20"] | 0.25 | 1719677788169 | 1719226570319 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IPBVC154XoObftslKu3D | which-session-at-manifest-2024-will | 11220.769523513125 | Which session at Manifest 2024 will be Manifold’s favorite? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1718607540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | or4vp6j8z9 | public | 1717961864189 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "poll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", created after market close (EOD June 16), that will run for one week containing all the options that have been added to thi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 123.08966686504466, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719277339663 | 3000 | Ziddletwix | 1719277515694 | 0 | 27 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "z3yzfj7t6w", "prob": 0.03142736659002055, "text": "Hard Questions for Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.301361919915358, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 841.4116383155111, "textFts": "'hard':1 'manifold':4 'question':2", "contractId": "IPBVC154XoObftslKu3D", "resolverId... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717961864344}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717961864341}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1718563124258 | 1719277514134 | {"or4vp6j8z9": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
khbXS2er7xZLK9gexxw9 | who-will-win-the-chess-game-between | 400 | Who will win the chess game between Duncan and Ari? | 1717968236250 | xIlmwkjNlchh1WhOh9WKt1Pf06p1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | ub3lm0h8wp | public | 1717962348223 | James Risberg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Duncan and Ari are playing chess right now ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.578825611840554, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717968236250 | 1000 | JamesRisberg | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTwoiJIvZ8hOHIPG4p9rE3V_M4Umx9M9juGmXdNs7EZ1M=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ub3lm0h8wp", "prob": 0.4194427865175248, "text": "Duncan", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 424.99503505345416, "userId": "xIlmwkjNlchh1WhOh9WKt1Pf06p1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 588.2421660962606, "textFts": "'duncan':1", "contractId": "khbXS2er7xZLK9gexxw9", "resolverId": "xIlmwkjNlchh1WhOh9WKt1... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707608149812 | 0 | [{"name": "Magnus Carlsen", "slug": "magnus-carlsen", "groupId": "1xNFPjuIXk4vsCBJX3Jy", "createdTime": 1717962348393}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1717962348410}] | ["magnus-carlsen", "chess"] | 0.25 | 1717962527111 | {"ub3lm0h8wp": 100} | xIlmwkjNlchh1WhOh9WKt1Pf06p1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xfKNVBbOlXuuYUg3VqXu | who-will-succed-to-gabriel-attal-as | 11632.433213406135 | Who will succed to Gabriel Attal as a Prime Minister of France consecutively to the Parliament dissolution ? | 1721339940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717965323796 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Emmanuel Macron just announced the dissolution of the Franch parliament. A new parliament is soon to be elected, and as a consequence a new Prime Minister should be designated.", "type": "text"}, {"text": " https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 216.3613570973341, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1600 | Mich | 1720122279834 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 41 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ndm73dq58h", "prob": 0.1131450242069996, "text": "Gabriel Attal (re-nominated)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 144.6336714625596, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1133.6697490922083, "textFts": "'attal':2 'gabriel':1 'nomin':5 're':4 're-nomin':3", "contractId": "xfKNVBbOlXuuYUg3V... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1717965323970}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717965323970}] | ["france", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1720122275869 | 1719858879523 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4aTsVw3VmAzlVZ79JMl6 | french-parliament-elections-junejul | 1230.6508347690647 | French Parliament elections June-July 2024 megamarket | 1721339940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717966193201 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Emmanuel Macron just announced the dissolution of the Franch parliament. A new parliament is soon to be elected, and as a consequence a new Prime Minister should be designated.", "type": "text"}, {"text": " https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.760087581284033, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 87.82685327699818 | 160 | Mich | 1720220696401 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 29 | 5 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "txkr5a67rj", "prob": 0.11967741020752315, "text": "Gabriel Attal remains Prime Minister", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.145170226720905, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.20261726354188, "textFts": "'attal':2 'gabriel':1 'minist':5 'prime':4 'remain':3", "contractId": "4aTsVw3... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "groupId": "64e721a5-ed88-4480-9b00-c00a7d4d1e2d", "createdTime": 1717966193413}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717966193421}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "cr... | ["prop-bets", "politics-default", "france"] | 0.25 | 1720220693283 | 1719776114501 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mmGjpw8dl5eGcB5LtmWI | {"NO": 63.11674716989148, "YES": 158.43655524710394} | 0.28488289942569495 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-aht7whhlhq | 60 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2029? | 1867445940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717967317229 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2029.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.21511710057430505} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522283488 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1717967317439}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717967317446}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1717... | ["biotech", "science-default", "medicine", "atherosclerosis", "health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522280400 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | RPa7fREEuQpQqMb3cEMT | {"NO": 10483.477689304209, "YES": 9538.819365450185} | 0.523590158543515 | will-a-manifest-speaker-run-a-direc | 500 | Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027? | 1814425140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7274234807534716 | False | plus | public | 1717968467843 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Samo Burja spoke on 6/9/2024 at manifest about returning to patron sponsored science rather than government funding. It sounds great. This is about whether an extended version where there are figures like \"individual find managers\" who coordinat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543514983} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.522310695789102, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ernie | 1718584509897 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Science Funding", "slug": "science-funding", "groupId": "4c6f279a-76ce-405c-bfc3-4b33c16dbb4e", "createdTime": 1717968468038}, {"name": "Razib Khan", "slug": "razib-khan", "groupId": "16d83e38-8012-4b7c-b960-b81300a7dbb4", "createdTime": 1717968468041}, {"name": "Samo Burja", "slug": "samo-burja", "groupId":... | ["science-funding", "razib-khan", "samo-burja"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718584506829 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wg0QliiZKzdwejKIXxV5 | who-will-win-the-manifest-pitch-com | 1222231.0782637757 | Who will win the Manifest Pitch Competition (as selected by the judges)? | 1718089140000 | BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 2.238231720177562 | True | premium | MKT | public | 1717969986762 | hath | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There will be multiple winners; the market will resolve at the end of the competition. This only counts if the judges choose this contestant, not if they receive other funding as a result of their pitch: see the other market ", "type": "text"}, {"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5202.171770731766, "platformFee": 4168.559358220502, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718130038044 | 201800 | hath | 1718089140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c | 34 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ywkc7zwd1p", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Bootstrap Bio", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21362.971459886445, "userId": "BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 495.2495731075747, "textFts": "'bio':2 'bootstrap':1", "contractId": "wg0QliiZKzdwejKIXxV5", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCp... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644457982313 | 0 | [{"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1717969986918}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1717969986933}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d... | ["investing", "startups", "manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1718078718978 | 1717985316877 | 0.98 | BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | QJaRqnzYAIAMXj1UlxoR | {"NO": 816.4965809277253, "YES": 1224.74487139159} | 0.39999999999999997 | will-scott-alexander-write-a-blog-p | 3720.2414382696415 | Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy? | 1722495540000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.565308245814371 | False | basic | public | 1717970018956 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nate Silver thinks he should. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense sp... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.12887064470438558, "month": -0.10000000000000003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 110.99298698047413, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1720011168651 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | [{"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1717970019103}] | ["scott-alexander"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720011165523 | 1719938989868 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54 | who-will-get-funding-because-of-the | 220884.9465966714 | Who will get funding because of their pitch at Manifest 2024? | 1718607540000 | BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.9187655980157565 | False | plus | public | 1717970176531 | hath | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any startups that get funding as a result of the pitch competition will resolve YES, not just the ones chosen by the judges. See the other market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/hath/who-will-win-the-manifest-pitch-com", "ty... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1766.6698171065045, "platformFee": 766.4013931274674, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 108400 | hath | 1720038976296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c | 49 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "r5z3siothl", "prob": 0.9233557603565313, "text": "Bootstrap Bio", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9774.008927095621, "userId": "BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 811.3031993177402, "textFts": "'bio':2 'bootstrap':1", "contractId": "ihHv8pPo7l3af9ZrKc54", "createdTime": 1717970176531, "probChang... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644457982313 | 0 | [{"name": "🌶️ Spicyfest", "slug": "spicyfest", "groupId": "89380840-f104-4f1d-9f28-79ee969da610", "createdTime": 1717970176690}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717970176703}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "9... | ["spicyfest", "manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1718602212357 | 1720038974775 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | cE4IcB4OhHJTf4qcbxwK | {"NO": 1159.5048679246188, "YES": 862.43708643491} | 0.5734610063481789 | will-2-or-more-idaho-libraries-tran | 416 | Will 2 or more Idaho libraries transition to "Adults Only" in 2024? | 1735718340000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573736749529257 | False | basic | public | 1717970857714 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Idaho Childrens Library and Protection Act allows anyone to challenge books in public... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07346100634817887} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.658636798231168, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719146427101 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | [{"name": "Idaho", "slug": "idaho", "groupId": "0546fde2-60b5-4177-bf71-04e0e872bdfd", "createdTime": 1717970857856}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717970857863}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqti... | ["idaho", "technology-default", "us-politics", "science-default", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719146423965 | 1718024486239 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dEL1Jtall3TTuJ41zZ4e | manifest-2024-wrestling-mega-market | 37164.28813766046 | Manifest 2024 Wrestling Mega Market | 1717974153725 | U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 3.9764919127412153 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1717971048921 | keri | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "rat park. 3-5pm today. be there.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 638.9873475844553, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717974153725 | 17000 | zoli | 1718056884406 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "03t0dberi8", "prob": 0.5002068490519468, "text": "Placeholder (N/As)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5767.604705208096, "userId": "U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5762.834584336951, "textFts": "'n/as':2 'placehold':1", "contractId": "dEL1Jtall3TTuJ41zZ4e", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverI... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1653875449638 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717971049065}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1718056884406}] | ["manifest", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717974150662 | 0.45 | U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5BCquRe5PgiY2pQaZScw | which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-n | 773.8544036972987 | Which parties will be part of the next Belgian government? | 1767247140000 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717971210895 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date is arbitrary and will be resolved when the next government forms. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.612202860603993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 40 | 1000 | CharlieBauer | 1720194095864 | 0 | 7 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3xn1lr3msu", "prob": 0.7296752100252328, "text": "New Flemish Alliance (N-VA)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 410.7351470059475, "userId": "wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 152.16618411059667, "textFts": "'allianc':3 'flemish':2 'n':5 'n-va':4 'new':1 'va':6", "contractId": "5BCquRe5PgiY2pQa... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | [{"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1717971211036}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1717971211046}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "creat... | ["elections-world", "europe", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1720194092609 | 1717972128854 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | z1HKkBl9Yt6570NKYNZ7 | {"NO": 571.0803341691491, "YES": 17.510671269303543} | 0.9702498490335245 | will-any-manifest-attendees-be-elec | 530 | Will any Manifest attendees be elected to public office in 2026 or earlier? | 1798790340000 | OmAIuj3No6MIHyWq2kbcWjDXakv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717973787841 | Liam Robins | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve yes if at least 1 Manifest 2024 attendee is elected to a government position by the end of 2026. It will resolve no otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4702498490335245} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.259260404382311, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LiamRobins | 1718864184315 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJsSakdOKKWvQifbYsSHA5k-0VQBqUPzjHkfq72fhMg3l9NEA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713730167757 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717973788015}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717973788013}] | ["manifest", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718162131138 | 1718864183389 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jHrihotxCG40XGyiWKiA | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-cj8pwam5ga | 12 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1718060563995 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | e2f8cwpa7j | public | 1717973821655 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 3]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environme... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6652087689859572, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718060563995 | 120 | CrowTheFox | 1718060600133 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "oo37vjy0ve", "prob": 0.08183327853511392, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.400812614020979, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.59694173115705, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "jHrihotxCG40XGyiWKiA", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 171797... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1717973821819}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1717973821833}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1717973821836}] | ["dd", "fun", "dice"] | 0.25 | 1718056833428 | 1718060599074 | {"e2f8cwpa7j": 100} | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o | {"NO": 393.99981364082186, "YES": 2538.072266479859} | 0.13437589625170676 | will-an-artificial-intelligence-sys | 3876.727215554069 | Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies? | 1722052740000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.710066513689014 | False | basic | public | 1717974056217 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Olympic ceremonies have often featured technologies in ways that have never been used at major events. Augmented reality, drone swarms, and stadium floor projections are examples of breakthrough ways that technology was used artistically. Will AI... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.36562410374829324} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 64.95315537888143, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SteveSokolowski | 1718953436583 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 43 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717974056375}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717974056399}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime":... | ["ai", "technology-default", "sports-default", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718953433531 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Li3kZtNTr7H7NUCMzNVc | what-will-happen-this-week-03060906-bq4fuzju2e | 31670.058295653074 | What will happen this Week? (10.06-16.06.2024) [You can add answers] | 1718571484196 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717974080501 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Important for resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timezone: CEST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price chart used for Bitcoin/USD: 1min Candle Coinbase... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 304.8028389613712, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718578996420 | 2000 | Base | 1718571484196 | 0 | 29 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2o4xku2bng", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Germany wins against Scotland", "index": 0, "poolNo": 994.98743710662, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.05037815259212, "textFts": "'germani':1 'scotland':4 'win':2", "contractId": "Li3kZtNTr7H7NUCMzNVc", "resolution": "YES", "resolve... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "What Will Happen Markets", "slug": "what-will-happen-markets", "groupId": "17ef899d-07f3-40e9-b09c-bac98f5690b8", "createdTime": 1717974080690}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1717974080699}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXw... | ["what-will-happen-markets", "basketball", "nba", "esports", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 1718571480246 | 0.01 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | False | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NCADh3QwtVu2lBVg0f5u | manifest-2024-wrestling-mega-market-uus3o3znfq | 138688.51179651762 | Manifest 2024 Wrestling Mega Market pt 2 | 1717977475237 | U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.725165754097286 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1717974505578 | keri | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "rat park. 3-5pm today. be there.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1504.8822100770153, "platformFee": 501.56176695358886, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717977475237 | 20000 | zoli | 1718055780276 | 0 | 30 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "2aj5ct0pet", "prob": 0.5, "text": "[Left Open - Resolves N/A]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1263.6576020978418, "userId": "U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1263.6576020978418, "textFts": "'left':1 'n/a':4 'open':2 'resolv':3", "contractId": "NCADh3QwtVu2lBVg0f5u", "resolution": "CANCEL", "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1653875449638 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717974505808}, {"name": "Wrestling", "slug": "wrestling", "groupId": "8j7nBRAbAX309o2IZUuV", "createdTime": 1717974505812}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83... | ["manifest", "wrestling", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717977440452 | 0.5 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 1VHfoNnXFCW05Ph5TYUm | {"NO": 1105.5415967851336, "YES": 904.5340337332924} | 1 | french-left-union-with-single-candi | 952.4139926265796 | French left union with single candidacy per seat (Snap legislative June 2024) | 1719698340000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571896882056603 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717974797719 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if in the first round of the upcoming French legislative snap election, on June 30th, the following parties have formed a union, and present a single candidacy per legislative seat race:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5080334993929647, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.63453646357282, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720071981293 | 1000 | CamillePerrin | 1720078214160 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1717974797870}, {"name": "french politics", "slug": "french-politics", "groupId": "4002952c-770b-4379-abac-1a06ae257160", "createdTime": 1717974797867}, {"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-s... | ["france", "french-politics", "french-legislative-snap-election-20"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719687491161 | 1720078212816 | 0.55 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | YZYxl2Jg0Y4VPP0Ndn1Q | {"NO": 1136.7498743094543, "YES": 879.7009989620383} | 0.5637379463974699 | will-donald-trump-break-probation | 2323.9761758203404 | Will Donald Trump break probation? | 1735711140000 | c6jVBVpD83cv93Y5tzwQp4dL7CD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572885569192144 | False | basic | public | 1717974977479 | kaiemon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump is sentenced to probation, will he break the terms of the probation?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he is not sentenced to probation, the question will resolve to 50%.", "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06373794639746988} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.40810379103591, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | kaiemon | 1719439906594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLKZu4c7YZ8C9nh7O81VTVDAtDjUicqSMjCuRI0VfsvOD8=s96-c | 38 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700881444679 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717974977631}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717974977643}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZ... | ["donald-trump", "us-politics", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719439903538 | 1718035110148 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | S5sRlKqRmOLQT2sBPWnX | {"NO": 21.348501726526493, "YES": 468.41694691738195} | 0.04358923600192193 | french-snap-legislative-2024-rn-has | 598 | [French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority AND Macron resigns | 1720216740000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717975241999 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the following two events occurs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The RN (Rassemblement National) wins enough... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0211903107071788, "week": -0.011153437087971937, "month": -0.45641076399807806} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.0328284694184715, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 103 | 100 | CamillePerrin | 1720192854237 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "french politics", "slug": "french-politics", "groupId": "4002952c-770b-4379-abac-1a06ae257160", "createdTime": 1717975242148}, {"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-snap-election-20", "groupId": "f8dd9c6a-824c-42df-bfbe-0cf9747da112", "createdTime": 1717975242157}, {"n... | ["french-politics", "french-legislative-snap-election-20", "france"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720192851164 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | TTbTHCnKZ9xwdFYqlFL3 | {"NO": 14.114831576790195, "YES": 708.4746244116398} | 0 | credible-footage-incl-good-deep-fak | 666 | Credible footage (incl. good deep fake) of Jordan Bardella shitting himself, before French snap election 2024 | 1719698340000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717975947816 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, before the first round of the upcoming French legislative snap election 2024, on June 30st, credible footage of Jordan Bardella shitting himself, whether recent or not, and whether real or not, provided the footage could arguably in good faith... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.019533680515006306, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.144423207407873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720067843369 | 100 | CamillePerrin | 1719698340000 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1717975947947}, {"name": "french politics", "slug": "french-politics", "groupId": "4002952c-770b-4379-abac-1a06ae257160", "createdTime": 1717975947954}, {"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-s... | ["france", "french-politics", "french-legislative-snap-election-20"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719633546694 | 1720046569066 | 0.02 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | T0XibwWms8dqDg9yCE2L | {"NO": 229.41573387056178, "YES": 4358.898943540671} | 0.05000000000000005 | french-snap-legislative-2024-rn-has-aqs7915bd9 | 20545.58828506175 | [French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties) | 1720216740000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.813981476450374 | False | basic | public | 1717976374582 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the RN (Rassemblement National) party wins enough seats to have an absolute majority in the Assemblée national in the upcoming 2024 snap legislative election, either alone or as part of a coalition/electoral union with other party. ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.08690062136339144, "week": -0.14847175037034552, "month": -0.44999999999999996} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 324.7295139549846, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3238.7241239087825 | 1000 | CamillePerrin | 1720192915653 | 0 | 50 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-snap-election-20", "groupId": "f8dd9c6a-824c-42df-bfbe-0cf9747da112", "createdTime": 1717976374746}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1717976374743}, {"name": "french politics", "slug": "... | ["french-legislative-snap-election-20", "france", "french-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720192912478 | 1719226939302 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | fiVK2hrbF1V1icOEiH3c | {"NO": 1072.0615308229824, "YES": 932.7822809128651} | 0 | daily-coinflip-qcut9l7ku9 | 22368.81534557726 | Daily coinflip | 1718078340000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571085156856165 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717977358516 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 162)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 405.2765685168391, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718085629701 | 1000 | Traveel | 1718078340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717977358663}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717977358666}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1718075511616 | 1718085603073 | 0.53 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZAfPycVHno8Vs9bDUkR4 | how-much-will-eliezer-yudkowskis-ha | 2383.8215239820865 | How much will Eliezer Yudkowski’s hat sell for at auction? (Manifest 2024) | 1717986420000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717978600206 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don’t know exactly how the auction will work, I’m just reading off the session schedule. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes before the auction begins.", "type": "text"}]}, {... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.61461806848625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718001660198 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1718001775870 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cqgkla4sep", "prob": 0.92, "text": ">$100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 831.5963212007091, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.1566576313839, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "ZAfPycVHno8Vs9bDUkR4", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTim... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717978600367}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717978600369}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d0... | ["manifest-2024", "ai", "manifest", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1717984862164 | 1718001774758 | 0.66 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mjbR2jzW5Mg1U20FVLoC | trump-v-biden-debate-bingo-second-d | 5265.126718242702 | Trump v Biden debate BINGO [Second debate hosted by ABC] | 1726027140000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717979441791 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is for the second of 2 debates. The second debate is hosted by ABC and is planned for Sept 10. Delays will extend the timeline of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragra... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 140.23850011028708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 16.3544948971959 | 1300 | Haws | 1720213183962 | 0 | 60 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cjsuwplas6", "prob": 0.48999999999999994, "text": "Trump calls Biden \"Sleepy Joe\"", "color": "#e91e63", "index": 0, "poolNo": 245.04901470490182, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 255.05101530510194, "textFts": "'biden':3 'call':2 'joe':5 'sleepi':4 'trump':1", "contractI... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717979441945}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717979441947}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgo... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1720213180840 | 1718026602484 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vmVqlI2jgPe2IQTCEPel | who-is-stronger-mihawk-or-shanks | 609 | Who is Stronger Mihawk or Shanks | 1813204740000 | F7IDkWSsK7SkEtNV3ESfqG6vfXH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717980184051 | Person | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved once there’s a definitive showing of feats, portrayal will not will not be used to conclude this. (i.e titles “Wss & Yonko” , lax statements). To be resolved Statements must be clear cut, Either a fight between the 2 or all ou... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.296743497462002, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Fenrir | 1720053161621 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8lvfv6mn5l", "prob": 0.5176795578887733, "text": "Hawkeye", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 518.0034805144336, "userId": "F7IDkWSsK7SkEtNV3ESfqG6vfXH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 482.6222398191668, "textFts": "'hawkey':1", "contractId": "vmVqlI2jgPe2IQTCEPel", "createdTime": 1717980184051, "probCh... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710201528049 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717980184191}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 1718576279312 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | QMMa4v8WQS1hleUUy3R4 | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | does-the-mega-drive-work | 10 | Does the MEGA Drive work? | 2220695940000 | bCl07I6lA5ZuVJGS2k6kNvAomF73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717980245733 | mako yass | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The MEGA Drive is a propellentless drive proposed to work by, as I understand it (loosely), oscillating the mass of a layer of the device while oscillating it back and forth out of phase with the changes in mass, operating on similar principles as ... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | makoyass | 1718011934518 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668892689777 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717980245901}, {"name": "Propellentless drives", "slug": "propellentless-drives", "groupId": "ec6c1492-d881-4890-9324-ec32d39cc38a", "createdTime": 1717980245904}] | ["technology-default", "propellentless-drives"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718011930706 | 1717980274278 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KQwIvjHWjK8ATcuqjE0y | in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn | 15286.339958693494 | In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded? | 1722401940000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717981092989 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes one minute before midnight on the penultimate day of the month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be resolved on the first day of the next month with data from ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 196.95100044929865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3100 | ovals | 1720121097118 | 0 | 23 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f8s2dmhuvs", "prob": 0.01, "text": "1st", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.050378152592089, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 994.9874371066198, "textFts": "'1st':1", "contractId": "KQwIvjHWjK8ATcuqjE0y", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "New York City", "slug": "new-york-city", "groupId": "93562589-3ef2-4bb1-aac2-7a74d8ee7617", "createdTime": 1717981093197}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1717981093203}, {"name": "High Temperature", "slug": "high-temperature", "groupId": "e9da999c-... | ["new-york-city", "climate", "high-temperature"] | 0.25 | 1720121093693 | 1720099625967 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HaVQwMxqiDJk0rk2OVXH | what-format-will-jet-lag-the-game-s-vrfyep448o | 110.5569217838057 | What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Eleven' take? | 1720540740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717982140019 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far through ten seasons we have seen five distinct formats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Territory Capture (One, Four and Ten), where teams sought to gain territory and win by doing so", "type": "text"}]}, {"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2025173887250027, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaWilkes | 1719859038508 | 0 | 7 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fq30vky1em", "prob": 0.6, "text": "Chase", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.386127875258317, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.257418583505547, "textFts": "'chase':1", "contractId": "HaVQwMxqiDJk0rk2OVXH", "createdTime": 1717982140019, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1179790... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1717982140177}, {"name": "Jet Lag: The Game", "slug": "jet-lag-the-game", "groupId": "sATnBDFFC3pK7wcamkkR", "createdTime": 1717982140183}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9U... | ["youtube", "jet-lag-the-game", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 1719859034898 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EH6ZymfYEWxvlYLRnyuH | how-many-manifest-babies-born-befor | 678 | How many manifest babies born before 2028 | 1830412740000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717982268289 | Quinn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counts babies resulting from romances across the whole festival season, inclusive of lessonline and summer camp", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Coparents may have met before manifest, but must... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.869709900778837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quinn | 1718041883351 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ny7vc57oi9", "prob": 0.18151268789417632, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 117.73010379468624, "userId": "TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 530.8752645712103, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "EH6ZymfYEWxvlYLRnyuH", "createdTime": 1717982268289, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0184873121... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651439801810 | 0 | [{"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1717982268472}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717982268482}] | ["sex-and-love", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1718040156186 | 1718041881838 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | DLUwpsv8BmaLuz0LCsYH | {"NO": 1880.4296440577252, "YES": 531.793360714167} | 0.7795422066441764 | will-manifest-2025-be-hosted-at-lig | 2045.94831620525 | Will Manifest 2025 be hosted at Lighthaven? | 1767254340000 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633331298223245 | False | basic | public | 1717983518093 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lightcone has a short runway left. Will lighthaven exist in 2025 and will Manifest be hosted there?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.2795422066441764} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.387034409760844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | case | 1719123233113 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717983518261}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717983518262}, {"name": "Manifest", "slug": "manifest-lirt353khq", "groupId... | ["manifest-2024", "manifest", "manifest-lirt353khq", "manifest-2025"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719123230058 | 1718001356501 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ohkK0Oxy0CWl2HTUhNOg | who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024-nhfvdthx84 | 15044.221958814065 | Which player at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated first? | 1717989762803 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | jlv4aw7utl | public | 1717985523950 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "esyh5WTH2UdkzCkeLICZ", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-person-who-wins-poker-at-m"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 164.63669540659862, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717989762803 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1718055796295 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pby4jkjdyh", "prob": 0.002000619960032262, "text": "houstonEuler / ameet", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.462183296370085, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3722.473259439966, "textFts": "'ameet':2 'houstoneul':1", "contractId": "ohkK0Oxy0CWl2HTUhNOg", "resolverId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWH... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670945765927 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717985524113}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717985524117}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vT... | ["manifest", "manifold-6748e065087e", "gaming", "poker", "manifest-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717989751821 | {"jlv4aw7utl": 100} | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | bvUW7QKbJVUv9Dnb8cKj | {"NO": 1000.9652982216287, "YES": 999.0356326804297} | 0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-dl0ss6r19b | 4.9314660634693155 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 37 and 38? | 1718551652091 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57033348422878 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717986512638 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10143351266456532, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718551655463 | 1000 | dwax | 1718551652091 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717986512781}, {"name": "Kagurabachi", "slug": "kagurabachi", "groupId": "b18069db-cb98-4bc7-85d4-2fa7898d54fc", "createdTime": 1717986512796}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1717... | ["manga", "kagurabachi", "anime", "release-dates"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718548922217 | 0.5 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | WdA2TTKcavuXlG0YrMv8 | {"NO": 292.841769249767, "YES": 3414.8134078069065} | 0 | in-what-round-will-the-first-player | 2450 | Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the third round? | 1717988331923 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.819376045944088 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717987064130 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official timer clock will be used, and called when the hand causing player elimination(s) is awarded.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.18659219309339, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717988331923 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1717988331923 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670945765927 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717987064275}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717987064282}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO... | ["manifest", "manifest-2024", "poker"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717988325863 | 0.08 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD | if-trump-wins-in-2024-how-will-it-a | 12785.298224673275 | If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election? | 1864540740000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717987660605 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him. In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 221.18911865949437, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1719937320974 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 95 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cdzgx3b65h", "prob": 0.2855197297290151, "text": "1. Trump doesn't win in 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.75010823632353, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 279.64178731634047, "textFts": "'1':1 '2024':7 'doesn':3 'trump':2 'win':5", "contractId": "JeHDbCusfs6qZumDrzRD", "c... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717987660759}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717987660761}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-polit... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719937317653 | 1719562987864 | True | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rcKAwZXj9Y4zwsSlafvD | {"NO": 804.8558836348855, "YES": 1242.4584578841693} | 0.39312765378163816 | will-the-ending-of-one-piece-involv | 250 | Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past | 2209093140000 | dT0Kq70qPHYIzXCKo92N3fS2Egw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57766509354396 | False | basic | public | 1717988122131 | wana woon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10687234621836184} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.541542115830813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | wanawoon | 1718030849866 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXHEjyronJ68x4pA6fHr0W8pyd_yixJFkQq5W6XgFEoILiMQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715985927797 | 0 | [{"name": "Luffy", "slug": "luffy", "groupId": "a1859f8c-b7f9-4f80-9377-8838c2727e29", "createdTime": 1717988122329}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717988122339}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a... | ["luffy", "one-piece-stocks", "one-piece-theories"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718030846734 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4qoExLAuVlqguPw988Za | {"NO": 432.6092414030318, "YES": 2311.5548728381655} | 0 | will-the-first-player-eliminations | 1557.9664301908554 | Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the fourth round? | 1717989411716 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.682665548673263 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717988352181 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official timer clock will be used, and called when the hand causing player elimination(s) is awarded.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.478696970979083, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717989411716 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1717989411716 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670945765927 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717988352332}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717988352329}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO... | ["manifest-2024", "manifest", "poker"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717989396407 | 0.16 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
L4w4LLoGn3bbFJAQcdTK | who-will-win-the-miss-alignment-cos | 424982.73737266037 | Who will win the Miss Alignment costume contest at Manifest 2024? | 1717993101891 | FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.662094641217064 | True | plus | tjahdeftdr | public | 1717989139977 | Ricki Heicklen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be crowned Miss Alignment at the Manifest 2024 pageant? Contestants will be judged by a panel of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "label": "Aella"}}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2527.336031552973, "platformFee": 1258.2211242353005, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717993101891 | 52700 | RickiHeicklen | 1717993101891 | 0 | 36 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bg17i8ojjv", "prob": 0.0003757447694550617, "text": "Yoav — Constitutional Bitch", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.39798027093639, "userId": "FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147379.7355846738, "textFts": "'bitch':3 'constitut':2 'yoav':1", "contractId": "L4w4LLoGn3bbFJAQcdTK", "resolverId"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1657237863822 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717989140120}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717989140118}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "cr... | ["manifest-2024", "ai", "culture-default", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717993009362 | 1717992612783 | {"tjahdeftdr": 100} | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | True | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.