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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6 | test2-3hj5evysk8 | 86 | test2 | 1718521140000 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1717868192690 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.183916603508179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718625630630 | 100 | JavierPrieto | 1718521140000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "un3czjfw1u", "prob": 0.85, "text": "foo", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.83200986178497, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.745929527312349, "textFts": "'foo':1", "contractId": "5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 1717868192690, "probChanges": {"day": -0.022509229109128615, "week": -0.022509229109128615, "month": -0.022509229109128615}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.022509229109128615, "probChangeWeek": -0.022509229109128615, "resolutionTime": 1718625624034, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": -0.022509229109128615, "resolutionProbability": 0.85}, {"id": "z36thfekbo", "prob": 0.57, "text": "bar", "index": 1, "poolNo": 38.17533834572827, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.105468589394768, "textFts": "'bar':1", "contractId": "5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 1717868192690, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06740309881449047, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.06740309881449047, "probChangeWeek": 0.06740309881449047, "resolutionTime": 1718625630630, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0.06740309881449047, "resolutionProbability": 0.57}, {"id": "vqc1xna92m", "prob": 0.63, "text": "baz", "index": 2, "poolNo": 43.03686208607021, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.81766089007559, "textFts": "'baz':1", "contractId": "5ogqmYih6KRWG9jahLm6", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 1717868192690, "probChanges": {"day": 0.12504045087902282, "week": 0.12504045087902282, "month": 0.12504045087902282}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.12504045087902282, "probChangeWeek": 0.12504045087902282, "resolutionTime": 1718625627668, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0.12504045087902282, "resolutionProbability": 0.63}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647283995840 | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1717868192834}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | 1717878770298 | 1717876284823 | 0.57 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PrOf9UCuUoBtloMa7Dwj | how-accurate-is-the-ai-countdown | 0 | How accurate is the ai countdown | lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717868899364 | Boo Lightning | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll closes when we get agi", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | BooLightning | 1719946750023 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKC4X2INo4-tyTknyIWpq6Mo4Do5kOyczhqltam6O7u4wE=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702671363585 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717868899518}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1719946748427 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | dD2Nzl3pqbGfWEbZDvcA | {"NO": 994.9874371066285, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-i-bayesian-outearn-everyone-el | 3571.1011758714185 | Will I (@Bayesian) out-earn everyone else in Diamond League, in June? | 1719885865200 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1717871266682 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1674131395361952, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.74328002167805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719885865200 | 100 | Bayesian | 1719885865200 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1717871266826}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717987069440}] | ["manifold-leagues", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719884983665 | 1718423323208 | 0.99 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xv95dCuiHKuvfB9YFpni | {"NO": 503.56212191849215, "YES": 1985.8523039623378} | 0.20228135447568832 | will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi | 2039 | Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030? | 1893538740000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.644912079049366 | False | basic | public | 1717872164313 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (for year 2035): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi-c6zm320ulo?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-sp500-grow-more-than-100-withi-c6zm320ulo?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2977186455243117} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.838740337785836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718874221547 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21815e162fa", "createdTime": 1717872164536}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1717872164541}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1717872164557}] | ["sp-500-changes", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "investing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718874218487 | 1717875344735 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hlXXijoNf6MVc94NkgnE | {"NO": 213.03694743000244, "YES": 46.94021445874191} | 0.8194448538567026 | will-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-i | 541.7480297398391 | Will Donald Trump spank Joe Biden in the first debate on June 27? | 1719637140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717872223654 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spank = beat Joe in the debate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to Manifold. After the debate this market will be closed and I'll ask a poll if Donald won or not", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3194448538567026} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.620567480440197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1719689252875 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717872223797}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1717872223803}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717872223804}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717872223812}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717872223812}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-election", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719628847258 | 1719689251747 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n | which-companys-chips-will-gpt6-be-t | 15182.976888240852 | Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on? | 1893484740000 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.13842538529549 | False | plus | public | 1717873927042 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 253.563533849706, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 12000 | ahalekelly | 1719861815562 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 73 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "l1t9fud2gv", "prob": 0.681694305906793, "text": "Nvidia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5621.414208799246, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2624.8248459946967, "textFts": "'nvidia':1", "contractId": "Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n", "createdTime": 1717873927042, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.004681791790130618, "month": 0.4846113743434211}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, 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"ai", "openai"] | 0.25 | 1719861812087 | 1718103552404 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | FfLKFb0a8zEQIvQE4isE | {"NO": 9949.874371066255, "YES": 100.50378152592202} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-87j2uvibjv | 10202.341039071505 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 14 than it closed on June 7 (5346.99)? | 1718395544428 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923055 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717874026643 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.81939385769638, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718395544428 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718395544428 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717874026906}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1717874026959}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717874026958}] | ["finance", "stocks", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718388980684 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | NdKIxJP74QVtXHrPDPvi | {"NO": 1009.4347180723737, "YES": 943.9477792036782} | 0.1482724745446268 | will-advice-for-newly-busy-people-m | 10 | Will "Advice for newly busy people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888513794005988 | False | basic | public | 1717877518515 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Advice for newly busy people", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RaNhnNjExip36NMxM/advice-for-newly-busy-people", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00827247454462679} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5652819276262651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717911550302 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717877518651}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717911547176 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc | what-are-the-top-frictions-preventi | 15000.774503631586 | What are the top frictions preventing wider adoption of forecasting best practices? | 1718365728010 | Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1717877609661 | Javi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Imagine 2 different worlds:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We reduce all the frictions listed here by p%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We reduce friction X by p%", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The price of X should be the ratio of adoption in world (b) / adoption in world (a).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a self-resolving market. I’ll resolve all options to PROB at some random time the week after Manifest.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": This market is part of a live session at Manifest 2024. If you are/were not at the session, you’re probably missing some important context. I’ll link to the session video once it’s up, but it’s likely I’ll have resolved the market by then.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 326.26151033443216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718365728010 | 2000 | JavierPrieto | 1718365728010 | 0 | 57 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2yrh312jdy", "prob": 0.097404886971489, "text": "People don’t know about forecasting", "index": 0, "poolNo": 61.07667515224264, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 565.9624504115513, "textFts": "'forecast':6 'know':4 'peopl':1", "contractId": "AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 1717877609661, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00034724080873221874, "week": 0.014071553638155668, "month": 0.014071553638155668}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00034724080873221874, "probChangeWeek": 0.014071553638155668, "resolutionTime": 1718365728010, "totalLiquidity": 180.90680674665816, 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I’ll resolve all options to PROB at some random time the week after Manifest.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": This market is part of a live session at Manifest 2024. If you are/were not at the session, you’re probably missing some important context. I’ll link to the session video once it’s up, but it’s likely I’ll have resolved the market by then.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.00643397524344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718365767360 | 1800 | JavierPrieto | 1718365767360 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pluhczsf2x", "prob": 0.45, "text": "Incentives for good rationales", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.48230365073653, "userId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.51884839935332, "textFts": "'good':3 'incent':1 'rational':4", "contractId": "nCvNZPM0dKpKBcnMrEUY", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93", "createdTime": 1717877792310, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.049841865442700695, "month": -0.049841865442700695}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.049841865442700695, "resolutionTime": 1718365744894, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.049841865442700695, 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iPSVKheWA71dKzqif3hR | what-percent-will-fiona-lali-revolu | 381.62270598510736 | What percent will Fiona Lali, Revolutionary Communist, get in Stratford and Bow
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wsuY9KRIKIpAN4DPVXyi | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-w58jvibdj4 | 80.41084634979772 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1717973622357 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a040qb6v8z | public | 1717887506168 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 3]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environment:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I shake the die 3 times in my hand and then roll it into a box on a level surface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Strictly speaking a d12 has a 1/12 or 8.3% chance for any side. 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IPBVC154XoObftslKu3D | which-session-at-manifest-2024-will | 11220.769523513125 | Which session at Manifest 2024 will be Manifold’s favorite? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1718607540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | or4vp6j8z9 | public | 1717961864189 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "poll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", created after market close (EOD June 16), that will run for one week containing all the options that have been added to this market (i.e. I will not add \"Other\" to the poll [1]). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own! The only requirements are that they be listed as a session on the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " official Manifest schedule", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://schedule.manifest.is/Manifest", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (i.e. it can't just be \"a fun thing that happened\", and it can't be from LessOnline/Summer Camp).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will add the poll options ranked by their probability at market close (as maybe there's some advantage to the higher seeded options if people are too lazy to look through until the end).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[1]. 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0.5000000000000001 | TTbTHCnKZ9xwdFYqlFL3 | {"NO": 14.114831576790195, "YES": 708.4746244116398} | 0 | credible-footage-incl-good-deep-fak | 666 | Credible footage (incl. good deep fake) of Jordan Bardella shitting himself, before French snap election 2024 | 1719698340000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1717975947816 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, before the first round of the upcoming French legislative snap election 2024, on June 30st, credible footage of Jordan Bardella shitting himself, whether recent or not, and whether real or not, provided the footage could arguably in good faith be construed as real (no super obvious AI tells, but minor glitching that the average voting citizen might not detect is fine), AND this footage is linked in the comment of this market, then this resolves Yes. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that there is no requirement for the liquid shit to visibly drip on his shoes, nor for this footage to take place in the lecture hall N of the Tolbiac campus of the university of Paris. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I come across such footage myself, I'll of course link it in a comment, but I won't trade. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.019533680515006306, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.144423207407873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720067843369 | 100 | CamillePerrin | 1719698340000 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1717975947947}, {"name": "french politics", "slug": "french-politics", "groupId": "4002952c-770b-4379-abac-1a06ae257160", "createdTime": 1717975947954}, {"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-snap-election-20", "groupId": "f8dd9c6a-824c-42df-bfbe-0cf9747da112", "createdTime": 1717975947953}] | ["france", "french-politics", "french-legislative-snap-election-20"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719633546694 | 1720046569066 | 0.02 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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HaVQwMxqiDJk0rk2OVXH | what-format-will-jet-lag-the-game-s-vrfyep448o | 110.5569217838057 | What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Eleven' take? | 1720540740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1717982140019 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far through ten seasons we have seen five distinct formats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Territory Capture (One, Four and Ten), where teams sought to gain territory and win by doing so", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Race (Two, Five and Eight), where teams, um, raced between two points", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chase (Three and Seven), where the main game element is the hunting of one of the players (even though the victory condition was not directly related to this)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", 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0.5000000000000007 | DLUwpsv8BmaLuz0LCsYH | {"NO": 1880.4296440577252, "YES": 531.793360714167} | 0.7795422066441764 | will-manifest-2025-be-hosted-at-lig | 2045.94831620525 | Will Manifest 2025 be hosted at Lighthaven? | 1767254340000 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633331298223245 | False | basic | public | 1717983518093 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lightcone has a short runway left. Will lighthaven exist in 2025 and will Manifest be hosted there?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.2795422066441764} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.387034409760844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | case | 1719123233113 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717983518261}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717983518262}, {"name": "Manifest", "slug": "manifest-lirt353khq", "groupId": "db95f0a0-984f-4b5a-b9f0-e3e6152cb650", "createdTime": 1717983518260}, {"name": "Manifest 2025", "slug": "manifest-2025", "groupId": "38f02f88-3ba7-4398-bb61-02cfd71a4128", "createdTime": 1717989246718}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest", "manifest-lirt353khq", "manifest-2025"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719123230058 | 1718001356501 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ohkK0Oxy0CWl2HTUhNOg | who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024-nhfvdthx84 | 15044.221958814065 | Which player at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated first? | 1717989762803 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | jlv4aw7utl | public | 1717985523950 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "esyh5WTH2UdkzCkeLICZ", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-person-who-wins-poker-at-m"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 164.63669540659862, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717989762803 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1718055796295 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pby4jkjdyh", "prob": 0.002000619960032262, "text": "houstonEuler / ameet", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.462183296370085, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3722.473259439966, "textFts": "'ameet':2 'houstoneul':1", "contractId": "ohkK0Oxy0CWl2HTUhNOg", "resolverId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "createdTime": 1717985523950, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1, "week": -0.1, "month": -0.1}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1, "probChangeWeek": -0.1, "resolutionTime": 1717989762803, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, 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0.49999999999999994 | bvUW7QKbJVUv9Dnb8cKj | {"NO": 1000.9652982216287, "YES": 999.0356326804297} | 0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-dl0ss6r19b | 4.9314660634693155 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 37 and 38? | 1718551652091 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57033348422878 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717986512638 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 37”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 37”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10143351266456532, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718551655463 | 1000 | dwax | 1718551652091 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717986512781}, {"name": "Kagurabachi", "slug": "kagurabachi", "groupId": "b18069db-cb98-4bc7-85d4-2fa7898d54fc", "createdTime": 1717986512796}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1717986512802}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1717986512801}] | ["manga", "kagurabachi", "anime", "release-dates"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718548922217 | 0.5 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | WdA2TTKcavuXlG0YrMv8 | {"NO": 292.841769249767, "YES": 3414.8134078069065} | 0 | in-what-round-will-the-first-player | 2450 | Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the third round? | 1717988331923 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.819376045944088 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717987064130 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official timer clock will be used, and called when the hand causing player elimination(s) is awarded.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.18659219309339, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717988331923 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1717988331923 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670945765927 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717987064275}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717987064282}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1717987064302}] | ["manifest", "manifest-2024", "poker"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717988325863 | 0.08 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In case there's any disagreement the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "first answer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " that matches the events wins. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification regarding what counts as \"opposition\": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition. In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 221.18911865949437, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1719937320974 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 95 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cdzgx3b65h", "prob": 0.2855197297290151, "text": "1. 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0.5 | rcKAwZXj9Y4zwsSlafvD | {"NO": 804.8558836348855, "YES": 1242.4584578841693} | 0.39312765378163816 | will-the-ending-of-one-piece-involv | 250 | Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past | 2209093140000 | dT0Kq70qPHYIzXCKo92N3fS2Egw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57766509354396 | False | basic | public | 1717988122131 | wana woon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10687234621836184} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.541542115830813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | wanawoon | 1718030849866 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXHEjyronJ68x4pA6fHr0W8pyd_yixJFkQq5W6XgFEoILiMQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715985927797 | 0 | [{"name": "Luffy", "slug": "luffy", "groupId": "a1859f8c-b7f9-4f80-9377-8838c2727e29", "createdTime": 1717988122329}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717988122339}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1717988122336}] | ["luffy", "one-piece-stocks", "one-piece-theories"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718030846734 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4qoExLAuVlqguPw988Za | {"NO": 432.6092414030318, "YES": 2311.5548728381655} | 0 | will-the-first-player-eliminations | 1557.9664301908554 | Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the fourth round? | 1717989411716 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.682665548673263 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717988352181 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official timer clock will be used, and called when the hand causing player elimination(s) is awarded.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.478696970979083, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717989411716 | 1000 | MattCWilson | 1717989411716 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670945765927 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1717988352332}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717988352329}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1717988352346}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest", "poker"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717989396407 | 0.16 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
L4w4LLoGn3bbFJAQcdTK | who-will-win-the-miss-alignment-cos | 424982.73737266037 | Who will win the Miss Alignment costume contest at Manifest 2024? | 1717993101891 | FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.662094641217064 | True | plus | tjahdeftdr | public | 1717989139977 | Ricki Heicklen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be crowned Miss Alignment at the Manifest 2024 pageant? Contestants will be judged by a panel of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "label": "Aella"}}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602", "label": "RickiHeicklen"}}, {"text": ", and Schmeliezer Yudkowsky, i.e. Claude 3 Opus with Eliezer's hat on top of the computer. The pageant will begin at 8:30pm in the Central Courtyard of Lighthaven Campus.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2527.336031552973, "platformFee": 1258.2211242353005, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717993101891 | 52700 | RickiHeicklen | 1717993101891 | 0 | 36 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bg17i8ojjv", "prob": 0.0003757447694550617, "text": "Yoav — Constitutional Bitch", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.39798027093639, "userId": "FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147379.7355846738, "textFts": "'bitch':3 'constitut':2 'yoav':1", "contractId": "L4w4LLoGn3bbFJAQcdTK", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1717989139977, "probChanges": {"day": -0.23754515506454843, "week": -0.23754515506454843, "month": -0.23754515506454843}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.23754515506454843, "probChangeWeek": -0.23754515506454843, "resolutionTime": 1717993101891, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 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