p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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BBTHog9BtH2MPl7NAl8i | which-player-at-the-manifest-2024-p | 1502.4247679515158 | Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated second? | 1717990461838 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717989795867 | Matt C. 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hJ8YKgFTeia3pFTQKA2G | which-players-at-the-manifest-2024 | 1717.7757694354348 | Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated third? | 1717991135403 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717990509734 | Matt C. 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"marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Mavericks 122, Celtics 84 : Celtics 3-1 Series Lead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nba.com/game/bos-vs-dal-0042300404/box-score", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game 5: Monday, June 17 (8:30pm ET)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game 6: Thursday, June 20 (8:30pm ET)*", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game 7: Sunday, June 23 (8pm ET)*", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "*If Necessary", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Other \"What Event Will Happen First\" Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/wewhf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT 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0.5000000000000001 | av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | {"NO": 1884.7173045865254, "YES": 530.5835509476514} | 0.7803240330363294 | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | 3573.0082822935387 | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | 1751353140000 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633794335382792 | False | basic | public | 1718001258281 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We've got a bunch of Lighthaven markets, but none specifically about Lighthaven's existence as a festival venue. Lightcone bought the Rose Garden Inn with a 5% loan, and is currently raising money. Lighthaven (the venue, not Lightcone) is currently slightly losing money. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The hypothetical event should be 3 days long, with room for at least 200 attendees, and be reasonably in good shape. Sleeping arrangements are not required.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this by my asking ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "rKGG8x9f3NYkkSFpcFCenVWMHQT2", "label": "BenPace"}}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xNnEsHOTJQZyrss4heMDKy6h4TH3", "label": "OliverHabryka"}}, {"text": " at close date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Lightcone sells Lighthaven to another organization, I will make a reasonable inquiry at close date if Lightcone does not control Lighthaven.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vaguely relevant links for Lightcone finances: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://donations.vipulnaik.com/donee.php?donee=Lightcone+Infrastructure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://donations.vipulnaik.com/donee.php?donee=Lightcone+Infrastructure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iDw6ugMPk7pmXuyW/lightcone-infrastructure-lesswrong-is-looking-for-funding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iDw6ugMPk7pmXuyW/lightcone-infrastructure-lesswrong-is-looking-for-funding", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://mani.fund/projects/lightcone-infrastructure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://mani.fund/projects/lightcone-infrastructure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.029226620315014884, "month": 0.28032403303632936} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.3756959590011, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | nikki | 1719706649470 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2025", "slug": "manifest-2025", "groupId": "38f02f88-3ba7-4398-bb61-02cfd71a4128", "createdTime": 1718001258427}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718001258428}, {"name": "LessOnline", "slug": "lessonline", "groupId": "96d9dff6-14de-4d58-9b38-e88ecde26502", "createdTime": 1718001258426}, {"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1718001485269}] | ["manifest-2025", "manifest", "lessonline", "sf-bay-rationalists"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719706646226 | 1719498951956 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4628551924019391 | T48rUflKLKj6OTceQkM9 | {"NO": 1764.7356387192217, "YES": 516.926940220077} | 0.746304914850268 | will-the-modi-government-fall | 1260.7217513878786 | Will the Third Modi Government fall? | 1875032940000 | bpRxXv19PcY0fvtUC99KQXgYaMu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.684593887978957 | False | basic | public | 1718002046724 | galaga | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The results of the 2024 Indian General Elections were declared on 5 June 2024. On 7 June 2024, Narendra Modi staked claim to form the government (i.e., executive) of India.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Controlling the executive requires parliamentary majority. Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, on its own does not have enough seats to cross majority mark, and so requires the support of its alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, to hold government. However, the parties in the alliance are not ideologically aligned, and several commentators have predicted that the government may fall before the 5 year term is completed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Narendra Modi does not hold the post of Prime Minister at any point before the standard end of term.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Modi retains this post throughout the term.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the unlikely occasion elections are called early and before his resignation, then I will gauge whether it was done due to a lack of support. Since this may involve a subjective call, I will not participate in the market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.036213908185210864, "month": 0.24630491485026795} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.541829183440655, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | galaga | 1719663348905 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670680922679 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Indian general election", "slug": "2024-indian-general-election", "groupId": "c48e28ad-faf8-4bd0-8c18-850e4785245d", "createdTime": 1718002046875}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718002046873}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1718002046881}] | ["2024-indian-general-election", "politics-default", "india"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719663345784 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000007 | rqXAa3p1DdkobMfGKTNn | {"NO": 1056.6881733973519, "YES": 712.6855301668259} | 0.1944366713851364 | will-priors-and-prejudice-make-the | 60 | Will "Priors and Prejudice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863308710535442 | False | basic | public | 1718002971135 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Priors and Prejudice", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sKKxuqca9uhpFSvgq/priors-and-prejudice", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.05443667138513639} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.311826602647988, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718666572489 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718002971285}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718666569438 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
q2Kz8kBoqWo9y0Es5wOJ | will-nvidia-stock-have-reached-250 | 0 | Will Nvidia stock have reached 250$ (post-split) until 31st December 2025? | 1735682340000 | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718004142678 | Iason Koukas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't matter if it drops again. It just has to reach that price at least once. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IasonKoukas | 1718004142836 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702729254788 | 0 | [{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1718004142809}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718004142807}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718004142818}, {"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1718004142836}] | ["nvidia", "stocks", "ai", "gpu"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49982832268048555 | 6zOcnTq3aXWMItQAhOMM | {"NO": 9549.13293496285, "YES": 10472.290442195907} | 0.47677444768325605 | will-florida-power-light-company-fp | 511 | Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024? | 1735707540000 | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.727393933958691 | False | plus | public | 1718009559841 | Bernie B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Turkey Point has an approved combined construction and operating permit to build two AP1000 units at Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Combined License Holders For New Reactors | ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col-holder.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "NRC.gov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://NRC.gov", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Vogtle units 3 and 4 online there has been renewed interest in building more of this design. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Remarks as Delivered by Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm on Startup of Vogtle Unit 4 and Growth of U.S. Nuclear Industry | Department of Energy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.energy.gov/articles/remarks-delivered-secretary-jennifer-m-granholm-startup-vogtle-unit-4-and-growth-us", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FPL | Clean Energy | Turkey Point 6 & 7", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fpl.com/clean-energy/nuclear/turkey-point.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is asking if Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) (or their parent company NextEra Energy) will officially announce its intention to begin construction of one or both of these AP1000 units in the calendar year 2024. I will resolve this based on official company or government announcements.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.023225552316743947} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.906599238313397, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | BernieB | 1718736917940 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704591987823 | 0 | [{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1718009560057}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1718009560058}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718009560059}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1718009560063}] | ["energy", "nuclear", "stocks", "climate"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718090485839 | 1718736916600 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.522321891373455 | 5UV2Q6JKh70yP0uM6OUk | {"NO": 40422.96194030554, "YES": 2778.923211357518} | 1 | will-the-conservative-vote-at-the-g | 30810 | Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%? | 1720047540000 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.530067944013208 | True | plus | YES | public | 1718010869917 | Harry Hayfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2019 European Elections saw the Conservatives poll 9% of the vote, considered the bedrock of Conservative support. Some recent election polls have put them as low as 16%", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.05915143062037953, "week": 0.060046481987534484, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 371.3465264702531, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720164636882 | 10000 | HarryHayfield | 1720047540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | 21 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708098506766 | 0 | [{"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1718010870063}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1718010870068}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1718010870074}] | ["elections", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720042041816 | 1718131221940 | 0.94 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1tuvlwcagQt9iT14ufrX | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-96 | 50 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 96) | 1718143140000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718011911844 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "+1 era score for meeting new civ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Genghis Khan finished wonder Casa de Contractacion", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Genghis Khan finished wonder Terracotta Army", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Booger needs more housing", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You earn an envoy (3 envoys available)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Diplomacy view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxCPT2tJ5xe.png?alt=media&token=431b95c8-cc3f-436d-921f-314cf1cd5d0e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/ggjNje9.png", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Conditioned on non-dismissive response:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMCSJZhY1dZ.png?alt=media&token=8c96eca8-42b5-4791-b76f-4070a3fcae02", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/R9j3loc.png", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3zwcVPjlbE.png?alt=media&token=036f8705-f8c1-4238-b602-904a7ed86457", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/x6MZVJy.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrphkWXJXC7.png?alt=media&token=85779264-8d9b-48cd-b51e-d8b4460671a2", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/pX84c04.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHNAWIMatQ0.png?alt=media&token=50e35982-d191-4880-a560-1a0341c2e471", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": 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"link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/4RQyVIK.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-47", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-95", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, 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0.4999999999999999 | W6fLhATNM4rwcTwEsxRe | {"NO": 36.02516697579507, "YES": 277.5837238094936} | 0.11487291347380701 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-cx6kfkmvxf | 568.8654172021982 | Will we get fusion drives before 2041? | 2246137140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718017615745 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2041, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. 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"mOBk4tUEzJNeNmiVuPNu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "d5oNHVjd34QGmzb5RVv6", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1mjKRjLeT7PTmpFdewXu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related numeric market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DkQUfYCxltklHqLKfIXM", "label": "/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For further context on fusion drives, refer to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fusion Rocket - Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_rocket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.385127086526193} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.782460661608196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719574594678 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1718017615898}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718017615897}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1718017615892}, {"name": "Fusion Drives", "slug": "fusion-drives", 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The amount recorded as of December 31, 2024, will be used for resolution. 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0.5000000000000003 | S5syq5kPaw6A3k6kt8on | {"NO": 717.7405625652738, "YES": 1393.2610920384736} | 0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-4m6tdi1mjy | 1335.310430220517 | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1118 and 1119? | 1718656885888 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.587492009694252 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718030073713 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 1118”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 1118”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.0622740614393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718656891912 | 1000 | dwax | 1718657375946 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1718030073853}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1718030073858}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1718030073894}] | ["manga", "release-dates", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718649026298 | 1718657374970 | 0.34 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | n7FrVzNbtPXekW2ewYkq | {"NO": 1202.0429424338345, "YES": 831.9170344906743} | 0.59098652681033 | goes-19-becomes-operational-east-be | 1568.522824387304 | GOES 19 becomes Operational East before first 2024 US ATL/GulfCoast landfalling Hurricane? | 1735707540000 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57559842571526 | False | basic | public | 1718030476126 | JRP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news-events/goes-u-launch/goes-u-mission-overview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news-events/goes-u-launch/goes-u-mission-overview", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when either criteria happens first:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When GOES 19 becomes operational East (when GOES 19 takes over GOES 16 duties) resolves to OSPO: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/status.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/status.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically “GOES Operational Status“ table should have GOES 19 “Status” column as “Operational East”. This will only resolve NO immediately if the satellite becomes unrecoverable or the mission is scrapped ( the GOES U satellite becomes definitively unusable and unrecoverable, per authoritative sources).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When the first US 2024 landfalling hurricane occurs on the Atlantic or Gulf Coast: this criteria will (ideally) resolve per NHC TC advisories/discussion. Note: this refers to intensity of storm AT the time of landfall and not necessarily the advisory prior to landfall. 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4lkUABC2LakyHlRAz1x8 | how-many-games-will-gukesh-d-win-in | 533 | How many games will Gukesh D WIN in the classical portion of the 2024 World Chess Championship? | 1734325140000 | TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718032875620 | John Carpenter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many games will Gukesh D win against Ding Liren? This high-stakes match is provisionally scheduled between November 20 and December 15, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ding Liren:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Current World Champion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Peak FIDE Rating: 2816", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Known for his solid, strategic play and resilience in tough positions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gukesh D:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Young prodigy and rising star", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Peak FIDE Rating: 2763", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - Renowned for his aggressive and dynamic style.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 14 classical games slated. Betting will stop after the penultimate game, and before the last classical game begins, or Gukesh successfully wins at least 6 games.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.729140905878298, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JohnCarpenter | 1718102527796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c1p09p9mzd", "prob": 0.05714103194733438, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.251039572404004, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 829.1702424709317, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "4lkUABC2LakyHlRAz1x8", "createdTime": 1718032875620, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08571611090980846, "week": -0.08571611090980846, "month": -0.08571611090980846}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08571611090980846, "probChangeWeek": -0.08571611090980846, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152, "probChangeMonth": 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"tq4k3hbed1", "prob": 0.09772436485889593, "text": "6 or more", "index": 6, "poolNo": 67.17786424934744, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 620.2439915626137, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "4lkUABC2LakyHlRAz1x8", "createdTime": 1718032875620, "probChanges": {"day": -0.045132777998246915, "week": -0.045132777998246915, "month": -0.045132777998246915}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.045132777998246915, "probChangeWeek": -0.045132777998246915, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152, "probChangeMonth": -0.045132777998246915}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716594703165 | 0 | [{"name": "Gukesh D", "slug": "gukesh-d", "groupId": "5535e951-a0b4-424e-9d79-2dfd2c0cca5b", "createdTime": 1718032875776}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718032875799}, {"name": "2024 World Chess Championship", "slug": "2024-world-chess-championship", "groupId": 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0.5000000000000008 | BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ | {"NO": 338.28532861594465, "YES": 2956.0844512275535} | 0.10268590086205082 | will-randomly-selecting-questions-a | 6904.927236809781 | Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy? | 1720843140000 | eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.761867444242663 | False | basic | public | 1718033802742 | Daniel Gallant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll a standard six-sided die each day to select a Yes/No question (e.g. rolling a 3 will mean I'm picking the third Yes/No question) and a second roll to determine the answer (1-3 = Yes, 4-6 = No). I will repeat this for five questions, betting 50 each time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on any additional questions. At the end of 30 days, if my total is greater than my current value of 11907 plus (30 * 250 = 7500) for the \"free\" streak bonus, for a total of 19407, it will resolve to YES; otherwise, it will resolve to NO. If it is equal, it will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be betting 250 on YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: I changed the number of bets from 4 to 5.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: I added 7500 to the starting value to compensate for the \"free\" points from the streak bonus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: missed a day so I pushed the end date back a day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.1803168894074657, "month": -0.3973140991379492} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 193.2908088358294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanielGallant | 1719999748705 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c | 69 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702678135705 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718033802886}] | ["science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719999745575 | 1719855599773 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | KyMWtjRVyUM98SwEAIm6 | {"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996} | 0.5460535652294758 | will-evergreen-ever-return-to-manif | 10 | Will evergreen ever return to Manifold? | 1893513540000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718034167321 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Referring to the user once named @evergreenemily, who quit Manifold a few months ago due to privacy concerns", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if there is no evidence that she has used Manifold before 2030 arrives.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | bohaska | 1718087106122 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1718034167570}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1718034167575}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718087102969 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NoBmBhyxQZCzygTgxJUW | if-you-found-out-that-all-other-app | 0 | If you found out that all other apparently-sentient beings were merely philosophical zombies, would you be distressed? | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718035071431 | NBAP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume you somehow come into the infallible knowledge that all sentience in the universe aside from your own is actually just an illusion. You now know that everyone you interact with on a daily basis is a philosophical zombie, i.e. an automaton with no inner mental life underlying their seemingly sentient behaviour. Does this revelation cause you a significant amount of distress (by your own evaluation)?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | NBAP | 1718065895576 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1685661001561 | 0 | [{"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1718035071787}] | ["philosophy-af8706ce1d7e"] | 0.25 | 1718065894377 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000011 | cW3myaGrHHp8CFoIKbfS | {"NO": 654.0932449268669, "YES": 1528.8340122084703} | 0.2996404221848591 | will-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-pres-dvw9ec5fvk | 8525.811365604131 | Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%? | 1735660740000 | VstTExViNeZKCjlaIDDDOYkX2IG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.679165664978006 | False | basic | public | 1718035227785 | Jun Hong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Voter turnout is a key indicator of public engagement and interest in the electoral process. In recent U.S. presidential elections, voter turnout has varied significantly, with a notable increase in 2020 where turnout reached about 66.8%, the highest in over a century. Factors influencing turnout include voter registration laws, campaign strategies, political polarization, and public interest in the candidates and issues at stake.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historical Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The U.S. has seen fluctuating voter turnout rates, with the 2020 election setting a high benchmark.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Factors to Consider:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Changes in voter laws, the impact of new voting technologies, social movements, and the popularity of the candidates.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Historical voter turnout data, current voter registration statistics, and polling data.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2003595778151409} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 232.97846613196495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JunHongebby | 1718681713579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIUc7XunSj38uCPqJekwT4EiFSRASTj7W1SV0qddedFmKTAXv0=s96-c | 87 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717679815707 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718035228067}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718035228059}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718035228096}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718681710530 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | xDvAXJJuZFgPfK7SKgq0 | {"NO": 361.0745625945101, "YES": 2769.5110749826135} | 0.11533770495221442 | will-kurzgesagts-new-space-birds-ga | 3475 | Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play? | 1767214740000 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.708152288040294 | False | basic | public | 1718039124359 | CyfralCoot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kurzgesagt just announced a new space themed game: Space Birds!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/3DFE8gZe9bA?si=M-pTMb5Zo7jz_UN6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/3DFE8gZe9bA?si=M-pTMb5Zo7jz_UN6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2719750/Star_Birds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2719750/Star_Birds", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Free to play\" reqirements:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free to download.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No paywalls during regular gameplay.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A player must be able to beat the game without spending money.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No paid stuff that gives huge advantage over other players.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/CyfralCoot/which-stuff-would-be-featured-in-ku", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.3846622950477856} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.487788670797165, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CyfralCoot | 1718620867214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709980441447 | 0 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718039124512}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718039124508}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1718039124521}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718039124537}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1718039124517}] | ["space", "gaming", "internet", "entertainment", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718620864095 | 1718126864653 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | XVBmKwzuCiQ2BjJqWTt3 | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | will-mexico-reform-its-national-ele | 20 | Will Mexico reform its National Electoral Institute by the end of Claudia Sheinbaum's 1st year in office? | 1759287540000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718041451293 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claudia Sheinbaum, the future president of Mexico, and her coalition have secured a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives with 365 out of 500 seats in the 2024 elections. However, they have come close but fallen short of a qualified majority in the Senate with 83 out of 128 seats (they would need 85 to have a qualified majority).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has proposed controversial constitutional reforms, including a complete overhaul of the National Electoral Institute (INE). Critics argue that these reforms could eliminate essential oversight bodies, erode checks and balances, and centralize more power in the executive branch. Concerns over these potential changes have already caused significant market reactions, including drops in local stock markets and a significant depreciation of the Mexican peso ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after AMLO reinforced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com.mx/amlo-impulsara-polemicas-reformas-constitucionales-pese-al-nerviosismo-de-los-mercados/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " his intention of pushing for reforms after the elections.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMLO's proposed changes to the INE include restructuring the institute and lowering the minimum voter participation required for binding referendums. These proposals have sparked significant public protests and opposition, with critics fearing they could cement Morena's political dominance. During her presidency, Sheinbaum will have the task of either continuing or modifying AMLO's controversial reforms.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved based on whether Morena and its allies successfully pass the proposed reforms to the National Electoral Institute (INE) through both chambers of Congress during Claudia Sheinbaum's first year in office. I will resolve it according to credible news sources reporting on Congress's final decisions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1718043216327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718041451486}, {"name": "🇲🇽 Mexico", "slug": "mexico", "groupId": "f8kNgkKR4d8snusk1qh1", "createdTime": 1718041451494}, {"name": "Latin America", "slug": "latin-america", "groupId": "DX94A1LQmpckcVdz5Hb3", "createdTime": 1718041451499}] | ["politics-default", "mexico", "latin-america"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718043213211 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CLVXruMzK2mBroJuJNeg | do-you-prefer-apples-or-oranges | 0 | Do you prefer apples or oranges? | 1735718340000 | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718042140767 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Little poll about preferred fruits. I'm assuming apples will be generally preferred, especially considering recent innovations in the cosmic crisp.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Arcmage7000 | 1718042140908 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | [{"name": "Fruit", "slug": "fruit", "groupId": "4d5877dc-5127-484e-8ef9-d9ade7b4cc68", "createdTime": 1718042140906}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1718042140908}] | ["fruit", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | O2aSumzLUzhZ3lF9gyck | {"NO": 81.1502970815159, "YES": 123.22813790755377} | 0.3970590003091857 | will-i-stay-at-lighthaven-overnight | 36.401506051331474 | Will I stay at Lighthaven overnight by end of September? | 1727765940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718043729340 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may (or may not) be trying to stay in Berkeley for a bit in September, and Lighthaven seems pretty amazing!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asked Ronny Fernandez during Manifest who said that it’s only 20% likely to be open to the public. Or I could come up with an excuse such as being there for a program, starting a really cool startup, paying a ridiculous amount of money, etc etc. Very unclear. I also don’t know what I want out of things. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.10294099969081433} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1517096482647782, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Conflux | 1718051638854 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718051635715 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | BmYt7Hq9Krlm5vv096S4 | {"NO": 499.34235228204244, "YES": 2002.6340554329158} | 0.19957916099540263 | will-manifest-2025-have-someone-mor | 1370.8018768399495 | Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver? | 1767254340000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.332620181759776 | False | basic | public | 1718043933981 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to YouGov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://today.yougov.com/topics/entertainment/explore/columnist/Nate_Silver", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.3004208390045974} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.49630758129021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1718260279701 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2025", "slug": "manifest-2025", "groupId": "38f02f88-3ba7-4398-bb61-02cfd71a4128", "createdTime": 1718043934168}, {"name": "Nate Silver", "slug": "nate-silver", "groupId": "ksgqwpVQzv2AnCZ2mq29", "createdTime": 1718043934174}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718043934202}] | ["manifest-2025", "nate-silver", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718260276581 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000006 | S4GwTWmHttXUACFKlybI | {"NO": 976.0647292049151, "YES": 1024.5222166921064} | 0.48788918232557454 | will-bidens-approval-rating-be-abov | 2312 | Will Biden's approval rating be above 40% on FiveThirtyEight as of August 1 2024? | 1720670340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570424455642152 | False | basic | public | 1718046819140 | Enopoletus Harding | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has just fallen to an all time low.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012110817674425456} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 74.66041882444858, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EnopoletusHarding | 1719599888666 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646579574703 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718046819354}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718046819382}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718046819386}] | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719599885135 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | olgbuT5HaU3J5VTZ1g7h | {"NO": 961.4647950958195, "YES": 1040.0796837291794} | 0.4803614435089873 | will-technical-limitations-or-safeg | 1389.6202655421787 | Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI? | 1970539140000 | Zk9FWoVXdYeRYXvcxW1E21TfYdx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570573091669319 | False | basic | public | 1718047675790 | dogway | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if at least one of the two following conditions holds:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "smarter-than-almost-all-humans (or smarter) AGI does not get exposed for public use (no smarter-than-almost-all-humans general capabilities usable by the public, e.g. those that could significantly further science without much guidance/hand-holding from humans or do other things typically only available to the smartest humans or beyond) in the first 8 years after market creation", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the dominant limitations of how smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI can be used are technical rather than legal safeguards, for example if the AI refuses unsafe interactions, and those are sufficient to gate unsafe public use. Legal requirements for technical safeguards which actually lead to technical safeguards count as technical rather than legal.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To summarize: the public is prevented access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans-or-better AGI capabilities in the first place or technical safeguards provide the dominant public restrictions and are able to prevent public misuse. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the relevant AI is gated behind legal consensus mechanisms for its use and is not exposed directly to the public [YES]. Stopping progress on the relevant AIs by e.g. international treaty, such that they are not exposed to the public, constitutes technical limitations to safe exposure [YES]. Legal or financial liability is the dominant source of restrictions, such that the capabilities are publicly available [NO]. Significant human intelligence enhancement (via modification, not learning) occurs in the next 8 years such that the base condition moves [NO]. There is a major AI-related catastrophe caused by misuse by people other than the system's developers [NO]. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "edit: Such systems are not created at all for any reason [YES]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Superhuman speed of execution of a task will not count toward the smartness condition; assume the comparison human gets a month to perform the task without access to the comparison AI or anything at its level. Assume public use that breaks commonly used encryption or leads to extensive harassment or abuse of humans triggers the major catastrophe condition.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a complicated market condition, so assume minor changes may occur to bring the condition closer to the spirit of the market: will the public get access to unsafe task capabilities almost all humans lack? (the model could still be at that capability level and available to the public)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.019638556491012704} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.686717748321364, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dogway | 1718668180455 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695596755199 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718047675931}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1718047675954}] | ["ai", "agi"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668177401 | 1718122473367 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | TyEP2MitDhNgQRhgZ6tV | {"NO": 109.07768998412686, "YES": 91.6777757344807} | 0.5433360909685894 | did-apple-announce-a-partnership-wi | 610.0893667657444 | DID Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? [PERMANENT MARKET/STOCK, DOES NOT RESOLVE] | 2556172740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718047879947 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple just held their 2024 WWDC event. Some believe that they \"announced a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri\", as defined by this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some believe that they did not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The creator just resolved this market YES. But why stop there? Why not make it an eternal, ongoing debate?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market does not resolve, it is a permanent stock. Only bet if you feel like wasting your mana in a dumb meme protest. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04333609096858937} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.314109089182649, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1719791359096 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718047880096}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1718047880110}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1718047880111}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1718047880137}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718047880134}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718047930843}] | ["technology-default", "openai", "-wwdc-2024", "apple", "ai", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719791356068 | 1719791341030 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14 | 0dpiysbUHzjuTJYkZJHl | {"NO": 1237.846562587886, "YES": 269.6255186905336} | 0.42771121672227186 | will-my-ai-model-delta-compared-to | 250 | Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.81279583221971 | False | basic | public | 1718049339294 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q8uNoJBgcpAe3bSBp/my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-yudkowsky", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.13162665492572218, "month": 0.28771121672227185} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.153437412114252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719891023447 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718049339469}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719891020396 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4SAjohXAOlw4H130lmgT | {"NO": 71.93755657022518, "YES": 139.00944759276095} | 0.3410219398737862 | will-tesla-q2-2024-gross-profit-exc | 135 | Will Tesla Q2 2024 Gross Profit exceed $ 4 billion | 1722059940000 | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718049405043 | Teddy Weverka | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is quarterly profit for the last 9 quarters. Q1 2024 dipped below 4 Billion for the first time in 9 quarters. Will it stay below? or will be have reggression to the mean?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6uESEtzD8t.png?alt=media&token=1327bf57-bd4a-4cca-b717-850d1a6975ad", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.15266849597122406, "week": 0.15266849597122406, "month": -0.1589780601262138} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6500545828456397, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 25 | 100 | TeddyWeverka | 1720224200903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678136362368 | 0 | [{"name": "$TSLA", "slug": "tsla", "groupId": "288e80f2-83b9-4298-819a-6d12cac1dbba", "createdTime": 1718049405249}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1718049405259}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718049405281}] | ["tsla", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720224197434 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999998 | wCpBQF8erLRrEkNiZoPt | {"NO": 889.1930760494757, "YES": 1124.6151448263895} | 0.44154804158200267 | will-mr-basil-survive-2024 | 1875.5987617509068 | Will Mr. Basil survive 2024? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.515673174827082 | False | basic | public | 1718053193555 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyFw-LtcQoI.jpg?alt=media&token=d79beedf-a324-4cf7-8fb7-8b1eba8e02a5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[from left to right: Mr. Basil and Lil’ Basil enjoying their new housing arrangements. In the background, we see cursed, demonic, store-bought basil.]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mr. Basil is housed <YIMBY implications> in a brand new pot! Will he survive, in any lasting form, in 2024? For the purpose of this market, the main stem of mr. Basil enhouses his soul, meaning that if new plants are made from its branches, they will be considered his children, not as Mr. Basil the patriarch. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will attempt to keep him alive until the heat death of the universe.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet NO unless within minutes of creation/resolution, and will post occasional updates.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Previous markets:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "x9Q5XJi1t0gO7KpZBwdu", "label": "/Bayesian/will-mr-basil-a-plant-look-more-hea"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "WZyAGodDei5dWwOxXWxr", "label": "/Bayesian/will-mr-basil-survive-march"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zE6Ii6bFl7C8eOmev2h8", "label": "/Bayesian/will-mr-basil-survive-april"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05845195841799733} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.28126181489721, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719075146315 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Mr. Basil", "slug": "mr-basil", "groupId": "c53d9296-7a91-4405-a54f-1e3171f28f76", "createdTime": 1718053193709}, {"name": "Plants", "slug": "plants", "groupId": "77f8a35a-0f81-4411-b685-cf0d9b613d7a", "createdTime": 1718053193744}, {"name": "Life & Death", "slug": "life-death", "groupId": "2de76c6e-155b-4bd1-b477-1b2a3dec0634", "createdTime": 1718053193747}] | ["mr-basil", "plants", "life-death"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719075143254 | 1718801269636 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UwlUmtaLnutL4YmioCGe | -ftse-100-how-will-it-close-on-tue | 60 | 📈🌎 FTSE 100: How Will It Close On Tue. June 11th 2024 Compared To The Prior Trading Day? | 1718129559258 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | aaboli9dce | public | 1718053519917 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 FTSE 100: How Will It Close On Tue. 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