CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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will-there-be-an-act-of-terrorism-u

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Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?

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cpmm-1

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3.2463081559431006

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The Not Too Distant Future

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TheNotTooDistantFuture

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will-i-be-2nd-or-1st-in-gold-league

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Will I be 2nd or 1st in Gold League this month?

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dusty

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stardust2

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young-thug-free-in-2024

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Young Thug free in 2024?

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Timothy Bandors

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TimothyBandors

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Next Prime Minster of France

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EazzyE

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will-national-rally-be-a-member-of

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Will National Rally be a member of the Next French Government

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EazzyE

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Which international team coaches will be let go during/after EURO and COPA America tournaments?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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1718067310517

Universal FC ⚽

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UniversalFC

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Will "Rationality !== Winning" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

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cpmm-1

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9.87752189073187

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1718068814640

Less Wrong

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LessWrong

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will-my-cats-grooming-session-be-fu

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Will my cat’s first grooming session be fully completed?

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9.612863376394976

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niko

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after-stage-6-of-the-2024-tour-de-s

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After Stage 6 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?

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cpmm-multi-1

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buxtdn5o1c

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Stuart Slagle

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ovals

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After Stage 7 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?

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cpmm-multi-1

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xqteoq0n4c

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Stuart Slagle

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Guy Cohen

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GuyCohen

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Will Keith Gill's (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) Jun 21 2024 $20 call options expire worthless?

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Brooker

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1700846926650

0

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ObJKXYavBpkAQXJHvSEs

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0.7021555207032649

will-there-be-more-software-enginee-vt1pfdfseg

55

Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?

1893473940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718082528210

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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100

StochasticParrot

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

[{"name": "Programming Automation", "slug": "programming-automation", "groupId": "cWNwyAspeBXqPZ4GoCn4", "createdTime": 1718082528364}]

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0.5

will-someone-rewrite-hpmor-to-inclu

0

Will someone rewrite HPMOR to include gaspode and janus in it

1925009940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718082584152

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

100

StochasticParrot

1718082753113

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0.13333333333333333

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3O60NDGg4Kh9RFSUx7q3

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0.5

will-someone-write-book-about-savin

0

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

1893473940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718082737792

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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100

StochasticParrot

1718082737792

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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0.25

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0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677}

0.3931377340057284

will-someone-write-a-fanfic-featuri

25

Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

1781841540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718082880293

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 50 pages", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686226599427162}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083062919

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

1

0

0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

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1718083059611

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-someone-llm-write-a-fanfic-of

0

Will someone/ LLM write a fanfic of Jose Luis Ricon romancing with janus/repligate and saving the world together by 2029

1830315540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718082981796

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ideally trained on both outputs", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718091918356

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

[{"name": "Jose Luis Ricon", "slug": "jose-luis-ricon", "groupId": "207551e8-8e5d-405c-98ea-cebe79643413", "createdTime": 1718082981952}]

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0.5

will-a-fanfic-of-repligate-gwern-jd

0

Will a fanfic of repligate, gwern, JDP, Sonia Joseph,andgaspode going thru Hogwarts together +saving the world by 2028

1861937940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718083172495

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 50 pages", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083172495

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

0.25

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-someone-write-a-new-diamond-ag

0

Will someone write a new diamond age book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028

1861937940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718083306337

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083306337

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

0

0.5

ts5A7mnMuSi3cXYE0628

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-someone-write-a-new-sophies-wo

0

Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028

1861937940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718083361618

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 100 pages, have them learn from and interact with every philosopher", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083369775

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

0

0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

0

0.5

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{"NO": 985.7108582335328, "YES": 1014.4962811833831}

0.4928043895098181

will-stochasticparrot-attend-a-mani

15

Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025?

1767243540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.570365495960353

False

basic

public

1718083403323

chris (strutheo)

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BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0.5037188166168889, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1000

strutheo

1718381810039

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

1

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0.13333333333333333

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1700846926650

0

[{"name": "top creators", "slug": "top-creators", "groupId": "NYNgrdB68SdNeZ1qhFsn", "createdTime": 1718083403456}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718083403458}, {"name": "Manifest 2025", "slug": "manifest-2025", "groupId": "38f02f88-3ba7-4...

["top-creators", "manifest", "manifest-2025"]

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0.5

1718086892694

1718119113529

0

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BOnFVcmNi8TmCbJL0dLf

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-basedbeffjezos-still-be-alive

0

Will basedbeffjezos still be alive in 2032

1988168340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718083425579

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083425579

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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

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0.25

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0

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m0HLj5DwaKmHrjXTos1n

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

platonic-dialogues-of-repligategwer

0

Platonic dialogues of repligate/gwern/JDP with basedbeffjezos written by 2028

1861937940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718083604109

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1718083604109

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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0.13333333333333333

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1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

0

YXLUN37wwv1eZTfcor0M

which-users-will-attend-a-manifest

889.0807251039056

Which users will attend a Manifest in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

1767243540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1718083858193

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 21.553984157121842, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2000

strutheo

1719367662580

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

13

1

ANYONE

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1700846926650

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[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718083858360}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1718083858363}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "gr...

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1719367659532

1718124579353

False

0

0.5

Nm22DcagKTT4D7mAy6EG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

judgement-day-fanfic-featuring-alex

0

Judgement Day fanfic featuring Alex Zhu, repligate, JDP, Alexey guzey,Jose ricon,razib Khan, and parafactual by EOY 2028

1844999940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718084096028

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where they will be evaluated on their lifetime outputs, what they have done, and then assigned to purgatory, heaven, or hell", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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100

StochasticParrot

1718084096028

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1650319241876

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will-manifold-be-subject-to-a-ddos

2730.500214564323

Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?

1767254340000

Wj9qhjGbhzXyA0JVlEnU3FwAiUw2

cpmm-1

0

9.599392825951576

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basic

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1718084457704

Sophia Xu

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BINARY

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1000

SophiaXu

1719027633080

0

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0.13333333333333333

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1719027630015

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0.5

fanfic-of-dante-inferno-featuring-a

0

Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028

1861937940000

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1718084466478

Stochastic Cockatoo

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BINARY

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0

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0

100

StochasticParrot

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0.15311062779652618

will-elon-musk-unveil-a-cell-phone

4651.592111775694

Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

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cpmm-1

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9.687488274506688

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1718084753928

chris (strutheo)

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strutheo

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daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4

14656.385060582406

Daily coinflip

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cpmm-1

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9.570395453738017

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NO

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Traveel

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Traveel

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1718250785840

1718295033315

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will-i-go-on-a-third-date-with-j

47.144326388186926

Will I go on a third date with J****?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035?

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Will the average Math score in the 2024 Vietnamese national high school graduation exam be higher than last year?

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2024-10-29: Will AMD close above $111?

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2024-10-29: Will AMZN close above $150?

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2024-10-29: Will Meta close above $450?

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2024-11-05: Will AAPL close above $185?

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2024-11-05: Will AMD close above $128?

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