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mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG | what-books-will-i-enjoy-reading | 4150.0693090571285 | What books will I enjoy reading? | 2539148340000 | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.129723206580344 | False | plus | public | 1718064017230 | Tony Gao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves between 50-100% for all completed books based on enjoyment. I will resolve all books I have already read to the best of my memory. Dropped books resolve between 0-50% based on enjoyment (resubmission allowed).", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 109.90227803209022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | TonyGao | 1719963429378 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | 5 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "zjtuf74bcn", "prob": 0.5910583699660115, "text": "The Diamond Age", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1747.8213254482798, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1209.2831066381611, "textFts": "'age':3 'diamond':2", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.20124941235713478}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.20124941235713478}, {"id": "sm0oebd4ru", "prob": 0.5630221500974577, "text": "Right Concentration (Leigh Brasington)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1684.0367949387914, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1307.0298880456862, "textFts": "'brasington':4 'concentr':2 'leigh':3 'right':1", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.20089265401726952}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.20089265401726952}, {"id": "1bj64mt6hz", "prob": 0.5412207802732552, "text": "The Singapore Story", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1607.1293681021637, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1362.3230747451814, "textFts": "'singapor':2 'stori':3", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.2033826456050587}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.2033826456050587}, {"id": "n7tk82ct75", "prob": 0.5529701151060711, "text": "The Diceman", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1664.523002268714, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1345.6270163257338, "textFts": "'diceman':2", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.008564312186639778}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.008564312186639778}, {"id": "te4hzm8620", "prob": 0.5738457941159177, "text": "The Agony of Eros", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1713.238389779393, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1272.2995497621073, "textFts": "'agoni':2 'ero':4", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.08124921014364672}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.08124921014364672}, {"id": "9dnj784bq8", "prob": 0.5599102955679708, "text": "The Screaming Plague of Ash", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1665.3150628243643, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1308.938270265493, "textFts": "'ash':5 'plagu':3 'scream':2", "contractId": "mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG", "createdTime": 1718064017231, "probChanges": {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 0.0674030988144908}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": 2.220446049250313e-16, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.0674030988144908}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697428923391 | 0 | [{"name": "Reading", "slug": "reading", "groupId": "3862a56b-17da-4056-b043-78389a85a2dc", "createdTime": 1718064017393}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1718064017412}] | ["reading", "recommendations"] | 0.25 | 1719963426141 | 1718080920748 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | spugLZbGWGj3Q9kxjfIx | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-why-i-dont-believe-in-the-plac | 0 | Will "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718064296815 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpd83h5XHgWCxnv3h/why-i-don-t-believe-in-the-placebo-effect", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718064296977 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718064296977}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 8pnp8Qr3Tl7NPxiaaBQl | {"NO": 1433.6532626042972, "YES": 697.5187279129509} | 0.6727065056144726 | will-the-next-super-smash-bros-game | 446 | Will the next Super Smash Bros. game significantly reuse assets from Ultimate? | 1798790340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590594307288422 | False | basic | public | 1718064610518 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the next Smash game to be released uses most of Ultimate’s assets (models, textures, animations, music, etc.).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This might be a sequel/deluxe version of Ultimate or be its own game.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if most assets seem to be new, or if it’s based on another game (e.g. a port of Melee).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Equivalent markets would have resolved NO for Melee & Brawl & Smash 4, YES for Ultimate.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17270650561447265} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.34673739570297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1718575422640 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644447319203 | 0 | [{"name": "Super Smash Bros Series", "slug": "super-smash-bros-series", "groupId": "pukhd11nYyEVmGX2uLSk", "createdTime": 1718064610660}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1718064610750}] | ["super-smash-bros-series", "nintendo"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718575419581 | 1718075328932 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | VDmEAEjIyMuLTiVce21Q | {"NO": 77.56489729516295, "YES": 128.9242988609438} | 0.3756365889308977 | will-sneako-sneakolive-get-permanen | 149.08585916218823 | Will Sneako (SNEAKOLive) get (permanently) banned on Twitch by EoY 2024 | 1735682340000 | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718064721691 | duN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "unbanned today", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/sneako/status/1800258189771874576", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Will he get banned again before 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TEMPORARY, <30-DAY SUSPENSIONS WILL NOT RESOLVE THIS MARKET.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12436341106910231} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.664694721313187, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | dgga | 1719388773586 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668131279808 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1718064721844}, {"name": "Streaming", "slug": "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "groupId": "aqYOc680xI6KmGP1jZUG", "createdTime": 1718064721846}, {"name": "Twitch", "slug": "twitch", "groupId": "VTvoakLdTRfbosPA4BGZ", "createdTime": 1718064721861}] | ["destinygg", "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "twitch"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719388770520 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ow3aB4NX9ak0HtkXKZc8 | who-will-i-make-space-manager-of-th | 582.0067123054167 | Who will I make Space Manager of the Proofniks Manifold groupchat? | 1718915457463 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | aogfa1q7q8 | public | 1718064890876 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since I’m graduating from Proof, I’ll lose my school email and thus should appoint one or more new Space Managers of the school Manifold groupchat. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The main power of a Space Manager is adding people who use Manifold to the chat, and changing the description maybe. Otherwise it’s mostly for fun!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will decide in a few days based on whims / this market, or maybe group consensus / good arguments if those arise. If I pick multiple, the market will resolve equally to their names. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add your name if you’re a Proofnik who isn’t leaving!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6743044691027866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718915457463 | 110 | Conflux | 1718915457463 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "mbitf8k7ih", "prob": 0.045126361519583706, "text": "No one", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.16836870531144, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 320.96262423389885, "textFts": "'one':2", "contractId": "ow3aB4NX9ak0HtkXKZc8", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718064890876, "probChanges": {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.0006859407109094731, "month": -0.4548736384804163}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.0006859407109094731, "resolutionTime": 1718915457463, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.4548736384804163}, {"id": "aogfa1q7q8", "prob": 0.7499999999999996, "text": "Cris", "index": 1, "poolNo": 17.324798679744823, "userId": "Izv38ocxK9NbkIJNnGIM2Ugazvk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.7749328932482875, "textFts": "'cris':1", "contractId": "ow3aB4NX9ak0HtkXKZc8", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718066744029, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.03361189168128764, "month": 0.24999999999999956}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.03361189168128764, "resolutionTime": 1718915457463, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.24999999999999956}, {"id": "b3us3eox05", "prob": 0.20487363848041673, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5.823878205332285, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.602805913371316, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ow3aB4NX9ak0HtkXKZc8", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718064890876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.03292595097037823, "month": -0.29512636151958327}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.03292595097037823, "resolutionTime": 1718915457463, "totalLiquidity": 11.470786693528083, "probChangeMonth": -0.29512636151958327}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718431697128 | {"aogfa1q7q8": 100} | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48955157608905897 | geU7hPlpstsPVONK7ASJ | {"NO": 3521.1428877383996, "YES": 29478.99063248484} | 0.1027816898715366 | will-there-be-an-act-of-terrorism-u | 25913.40082363079 | Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11? | 1723525140000 | mccteV9huKglUqaOR8DkYIWeu0S2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2463081559431006 | False | plus | public | 1718064936004 | The Not Too Distant Future | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.the-sun.com/sport/11582520/isis-terror-attack-threat-to-paris-olympics/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.the-sun.com/sport/11582520/isis-terror-attack-threat-to-paris-olympics/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"ISLAMIC terror outfit ISIS has threatened chilling attacks on the upcoming Paris Olympics in an appalling poster message.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The death cult posted a propaganda image showing one of its terrorists seemingly flying an \"armed drone\" to attack the iconic Eiffel Tower.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The poster, pushed by ISIS-linked social media channels, was captioned: \"Lone wolves' Olympics have begun with the Will of Allah.\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The chilling threat vaguely indicates there could be attempts to carry out lone-wolf-style terror attacks across Paris amid the upcoming games.\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FwvWBXS6zpR.png?alt=media&token=c6c84c98-32ab-4fd6-a3c5-d35ae6dd7e9b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "************************************************************", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on acts involving a drone or drones from July 24 - Aug 11 in Paris during the Olympics that are reported as \"terrorism\", \"likely terrorism\", \"suspected terrorism\" or equivalent, as reported by at least two major US news media outlets (see list below) and published by market close on August 12, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market applies to acts that occur in areas within the 1929 annexed limits of Paris (105 km2) ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Paris", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Paris", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MAJOR US NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ABC News", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CBS News", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CNN", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fox News Channel", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MSNBC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NBC News", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The New York Times", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "USA Today", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Wall Street Journal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Washington Post", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Politico", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bloomberg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vice News", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HBO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HuffPost", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TMZ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CNET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NPR", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Hollywood Reporter", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Newsweek", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The New Yorker", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "U.S. News & World Report", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.3972183101284634} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 400.87293801313257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | TheNotTooDistantFuture | 1719263328930 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709940537659 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1718064936165}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1718064936162}, {"name": "Drone", "slug": "drone", "groupId": "c91e63fb-1351-4d9e-8e4f-71a6d80e221e", "createdTime": 1718064936167}, {"name": "News", "slug": "news", "groupId": "586c2ce6-5e77-441a-b7ba-922fd387e3be", "createdTime": 1718064936169}] | ["2024-summer-olympics", "terrorism", "drone", "news"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719263325586 | 1718122302514 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14000000000000004 | pHH28qPbziDOi9UltU2L | {"NO": 1028.3198101354978, "YES": 842.3608717793071} | 0.1657825678441072 | will-rationality-winning-make-the-t | 30 | Will "Rationality !== Winning" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87752189073187 | False | public | 1718068814640 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Rationality !== Winning", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3GSRhtrs2adzpXcbY/rationality-winning", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.02578256784410718} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6801898645021753, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718126889731 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718068814789}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718126886248 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jdmgVW9B4QT8DSzpDDKj | {"NO": 1682.5338282630385, "YES": 594.3416906109688} | 1 | will-my-cats-grooming-session-be-fu | 700 | Will my cat’s first grooming session be fully completed? | 1718473975078 | AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.612863376394976 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718069062065 | niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We have an older big cat who has trouble grooming himself. This wasn’t much of a problem because his brother used to help him. Unfortunately his brother has passed away and now his coat is getting shabby despite the brushing we’ve been doing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So we’ve hired an in home cat groomer to come on Saturday. If the groomer is able to successfully complete the session this market will resolve YES. The grooming includes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "shampoo & conditioner", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Blow dry", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nail trim", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve NO if our kitty is too uncooperative and some of those items are skipped/not fully completed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We have never tried a professional groomer before. He is a little bit of a grumpy old man, but he has never scratched or bitten anyone. He doesn’t let us trim his nails though (but the groomer is more talented at that than us). He doesn’t seem to mind being wet. He is low energy. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If we have to reschedule to appointment I’ll update the close date. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cat:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkbnfeJ3DE1.jpeg?alt=media&token=bd68a1a6-7422-46dd-af23-42188216bf51", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.466171736961634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718473975078 | 1000 | Nikos | 1718474284985 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679164789994 | 0 | [{"name": "Dogs & Cats", "slug": "dogs-cats", "groupId": "6zfcg4rHWwD11dCW9s2C", "createdTime": 1718069062228}] | ["dogs-cats"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718170421134 | 1718474283802 | 0.74 | AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 9Cmey2uSxMJL5uBCeZIU | {"NO": 214.53231420995672, "YES": 46.613024414649615} | 0.8215054319554395 | if-donald-trump-wins-in-2024-will-t | 357.88588103714426 | If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair? | 1893473940000 | vcWSUFg2E9QnftwOgvdGQ7FPziA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718069801609 | Guy Cohen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves as NO in the following scenarios", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-The 2028 election is not conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate doing so though cheating or changing the rules on behalf of their party.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-The 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, but the transition of power is disrupted in a way that leads to the losing candidate or their party being in power past January 20, 2029.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-The 2028 election is cancelled or not conducted, allowing a single candidate to remain in power indefintely past the end of their term.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.32150543195543946} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.581804752899033, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GuyCohen | 1718867952990 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtegVMmYNHa0cwfrPTcGDfRtlb9N_ChRppJ7zUVeTjBg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690680671946 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718069801779}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718069801787}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718069801786}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718867949899 | 1718081905571 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Fr9yLCR6hd6KRHcWTEv2 | {"NO": 100.5037815259216, "YES": 9949.874371066235} | 0 | will-keith-gills-aka-roaring-kitty | 19823.380764132704 | Will Keith Gill's (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) Jun 21 2024 $20 call options expire worthless? | 1719012450201 | JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718069828304 | Brooker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHxzHfscGRK.jpeg?alt=media&token=4a319705-e7f2-4c39-81ee-9eec29ebbd9c", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Keith Gill has shared screen shots of $20 call options he has purchased that expire on June 21, 2024. If GME closes below $20 this question resolves \"YES\", if GME closes equal or above $20 this question resolves NO. It does not matter if Keith owns the options contract. The price will determine outcome. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 169.95142571385236, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719012450201 | 1000 | Brooker | 1719012450201 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCUyBeLE3uL8Bz12FsMymyGe0BrshjUrV_Vjt2TCt8v81jsuM=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715715054189 | 0 | [{"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1718069828468}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718069828475}, {"name": "Meme Stocks", "slug": "meme-stocks", "groupId": "524e08a3-3589-4267-9009-818d6c89cfa4", "createdTime": 1718069828487}, {"name": "GME", "slug": "gme", "groupId": "d9f6f987-c98c-4ace-b2a2-0d67c356a59a", "createdTime": 1718069828485}] | ["investing", "stocks", "meme-stocks", "gme"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719008042649 | 1719007928020 | 0.01 | JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 7ZgEZZammlx64asRhjaZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-someone-llm-write-a-fanfic-of | 0 | Will someone/ LLM write a fanfic of Jose Luis Ricon romancing with janus/repligate and saving the world together by 2029 | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718082981796 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ideally trained on both outputs", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718091918356 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | [{"name": "Jose Luis Ricon", "slug": "jose-luis-ricon", "groupId": "207551e8-8e5d-405c-98ea-cebe79643413", "createdTime": 1718082981952}] | ["jose-luis-ricon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | B6iTomkAQlKuEGEu7izf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-a-fanfic-of-repligate-gwern-jd | 0 | Will a fanfic of repligate, gwern, JDP, Sonia Joseph,andgaspode going thru Hogwarts together +saving the world by 2028 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718083172495 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 50 pages", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718083172495 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 67dHtEDbPBTq0Cii2WSN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-someone-write-a-new-diamond-ag | 0 | Will someone write a new diamond age book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718083306337 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718083306337 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ts5A7mnMuSi3cXYE0628 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-someone-write-a-new-sophies-wo | 0 | Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718083361618 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 100 pages, have them learn from and interact with every philosopher", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718083369775 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 5NKwwyvKAGR7321V888r | {"NO": 985.7108582335328, "YES": 1014.4962811833831} | 0.4928043895098181 | will-stochasticparrot-attend-a-mani | 15 | Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570365495960353 | False | basic | public | 1718083403323 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007195610490181914} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5037188166168889, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718381810039 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "top creators", "slug": "top-creators", "groupId": "NYNgrdB68SdNeZ1qhFsn", "createdTime": 1718083403456}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718083403458}, {"name": "Manifest 2025", "slug": "manifest-2025", "groupId": "38f02f88-3ba7-4398-bb61-02cfd71a4128", "createdTime": 1718381810039}] | ["top-creators", "manifest", "manifest-2025"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718086892694 | 1718119113529 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | BOnFVcmNi8TmCbJL0dLf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-basedbeffjezos-still-be-alive | 0 | Will basedbeffjezos still be alive in 2032 | 1988168340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718083425579 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718083425579 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | m0HLj5DwaKmHrjXTos1n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | platonic-dialogues-of-repligategwer | 0 | Platonic dialogues of repligate/gwern/JDP with basedbeffjezos written by 2028 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718083604109 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718083604109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YXLUN37wwv1eZTfcor0M | which-users-will-attend-a-manifest | 889.0807251039056 | Which users will attend a Manifest in 2025? 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0.5 | Nm22DcagKTT4D7mAy6EG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | judgement-day-fanfic-featuring-alex | 0 | Judgement Day fanfic featuring Alex Zhu, repligate, JDP, Alexey guzey,Jose ricon,razib Khan, and parafactual by EOY 2028 | 1844999940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718084096028 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where they will be evaluated on their lifetime outputs, what they have done, and then assigned to purgatory, heaven, or hell", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718084096028 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 2tyVmLcCsbJeOgSX4dJL | {"NO": 1538.6095632384101, "YES": 649.9374655485935} | 0.703027873287777 | will-manifold-be-subject-to-a-ddos | 2730.500214564323 | Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025? | 1767254340000 | Wj9qhjGbhzXyA0JVlEnU3FwAiUw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599392825951576 | False | basic | public | 1718084457704 | Sophia Xu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if any Manifold team member confirms that a DDoS attack occurred, a hacker verifiably announced that a DDoS happened, or other unenumerated scenarios that unambiguously confirmed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.20302787328777705} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.0059413794925, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SophiaXu | 1719027633080 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYIZxhU8epOmpotTu4bIVGUO1SbDd6jYKmM8PRa8JQ=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678589521616 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718084457853}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1718084457855}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718084457857}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719027630015 | 1718232077788 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ENeBeKpX4S8WVwPzlBta | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | fanfic-of-dante-inferno-featuring-a | 0 | Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028 | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718084466478 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718090710627 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999995 | BbhXwAx0PrZ0PZbqpFb3 | {"NO": 425.1961536248199, "YES": 2351.8557058311844} | 0.15311062779652618 | will-elon-musk-unveil-a-cell-phone | 4651.592111775694 | Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.687488274506688 | False | basic | public | 1718084753928 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He must be at a leadership role in the company in question. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FmBC0nqpYq9.png?alt=media&token=b7811ceb-1093-4ec6-a75b-3acddd57ebef", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.08092834228388907, "month": -0.3468893722034738} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 126.0737563367767, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720066800364 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Grok", "slug": "grok", "groupId": "cb36ffd9-d4c1-44be-8e4b-f8b6b332cd65", "createdTime": 1718084754066}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1718084754067}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1718084754069}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718084754070}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718084754079}] | ["grok", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter", "tesla", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720066797298 | 1718643944970 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | gpJ2a0HV93TFZrWNX9Gk | {"NO": 1020.2040612204038, "YES": 980.1960588196088} | 0 | daily-coinflip-537a93i1a4 | 14656.385060582406 | Daily coinflip | 1718251140000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570395453738017 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718085650805 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 163)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 82 heads vs 80 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 246.84873699765896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718295151195 | 1000 | Traveel | 1718251140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1718085650958}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1718085650977}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718085652271}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1718085652747}] | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1718250785840 | 1718295033315 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | myIsMoHMLg4FRNYuquXv | {"NO": 81.84544927449917, "YES": 122.18150292585332} | 0.40115018330582 | will-i-go-on-a-third-date-with-j | 47.144326388186926 | Will I go on a third date with J****? | 1735718340000 | lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718089207237 | Alex | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I went on an excellent first date with an exceptional person yesterday. They (they/them) expressed interest in another but I haven't heard back after texting them yesterday.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09884981669418003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4555242931097834, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Alex | 1718899661974 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644869599300 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1718089208523}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1718089208525}, {"name": "Smol Beans", "slug": "smol-beans", "groupId": "XdKmDFqB6Hzet3fYAoW9", "createdTime": 1718089208524}, {"name": "Daily Markets", "slug": "daily-markets", "groupId": "1a1d2114-bd95-4800-bcc9-b3eeaa6e07e6", "createdTime": 1718089208525}, {"name": "Romance", "slug": "romance", "groupId": "3daea9b8-c979-47b5-a912-91317f494c36", "createdTime": 1718089208527}] | ["personal", "sex-and-love", "smol-beans", "daily-markets", "romance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718899658893 | 1718899588326 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hkNu2YuCF70k5s8epXqb | {"NO": 77.45298267022676, "YES": 129.11058625821062} | 0.3749595491209771 | hiv-vaccine-fully-approved-by-fda-a | 30 | HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035? | 2051326740000 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718089983893 | Destiny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a vaccine for HIV is approved by the FDA and available for commercial use before January 1st 2035 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Emergency Use Authorization will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only full approval. Additionally, the vaccine must be released to the public and commercially available to certain members of the population. It need not be accessible to everyone, a release limited to certain age groups or otherwise restricted is still sufficient. A vaccine for either the treatment or prevention of HIV is sufficient. This means that either a vaccine treating a patient who has already contracted HIV, or a vaccine designed to prevent one from contracting HIV in the first place will both be sufficient to resolve this market. Once the conditions are fulfilled, this market can immediately resolve YES. This shall remain the case even if the vaccine later loses its approval or is pulled from the market for any reason.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12504045087902288} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8894137417893826, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Destiny3a152 | 1718090270764 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714885629354 | 0 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1718089984042}, {"name": "FDA", "slug": "fda", "groupId": "aM7bVjBmMbLAbzCJTRJV", "createdTime": 1718089984049}, {"name": "HIV/AIDS", "slug": "hivaids", "groupId": "8ae983d0-8fb3-4177-8e69-8775ca8cdf67", "createdTime": 1718089984051}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718089984055}, {"name": "Vaccines", "slug": "vaccines", "groupId": "6a47d989-7821-49d7-b60d-c70b53373165", "createdTime": 1718089984048}] | ["health", "fda", "hivaids", "medicine", "vaccines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718089997126 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9JyfUhmYJWk6pbLW4xY3 | {"NO": 365.98438085878615, "YES": 2732.357041176155} | 0.11812267629899013 | will-trump-choose-vivek-as-his-vice | 2362.192198445689 | Will Trump choose Vivek as his vice presidential running mate OR Will I roll a 1 on a 10-sided die? [JOINT PROBABILITY] | 1735718340000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.252278657555609 | False | basic | public | 1718090739103 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves YES if Trump announces Vivek as his vice presidential running mate at any point in the 2024 election, even if this is later rescinded. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OR ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the close of the market, l will ask the FairlyRandom bot in the comments for a random number between 1 and 10, eg “@FairlyRandom 10”. If that number is 1, market resolves YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves NO only if both if Vivek is not selected, AND I roll a number other than 1. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: It seems like this market may not actually be useful in the way as I originally stated in the market description (in italics below). I'll leave the text here for posterity, but it should probably be ignored. Note that the resolution criteria for the market have not changed in any way. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Various markets (see below) agree that there is a low chance of Trump selecting Vivek Ramaswamy for his VP candidate in 2024. However, they disagree on just HOW low, with likelihoods ranging from 2% to 5%, more than a factor of 2(!). One can imagine various reasons for these discrepancies, but presumably one of them is the lack of mana incentive to bet a market from, say, 5% to 3%, even if 3% is closer to the bettor's true estimate. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is an experiment to try to obtain a more accurate estimate by artificially boosting the incentive to bet NO, at the cost of introducing randomness.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/wowgrape/will-trump-pick-vivek-ramaswamy-as", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/if-trump-wins-the-2024-election-wil-6e67c74412ee", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKohane/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-candidate-v", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Akash/who-will-be-trumps-vp-nominee", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/AaronBailey/who-will-be-trumps-vice-president-r", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.38187732370100985} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.347782708946376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | themightysalmon | 1719355325185 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1718090739253}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718090739252}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718090931940}, {"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1718090936080}] | ["fairlyrandom", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "trump-vp"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719355321704 | 1718128267927 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gn2UnnLO3LSUpqSQVQwF | which-new-rts-will-have-the-highest | 50 | Which new RTS will have the highest single tournament prize pool by the end of 2025? | 1767254340000 | evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718091103603 | BennyBoy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Metric is Total prize pool", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.717827256275224, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BennyBoy | 1718091140843 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "pv7q7s0jfj", "prob": 0.3266804008824148, "text": "Stormgate", "index": 0, "poolNo": 201.0760238822694, "userId": "evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 414.4369464065255, "textFts": "'stormgat':1", "contractId": "gn2UnnLO3LSUpqSQVQwF", "createdTime": 1718091103604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ysvhapl4vb", "prob": 0.22443986637252852, "text": "Zero space", "index": 1, "poolNo": 155.29291397851182, "userId": "evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 536.6203209044319, "textFts": "'space':2 'zero':1", "contractId": "gn2UnnLO3LSUpqSQVQwF", "createdTime": 1718091103604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "gphx2h5ei1", "prob": 0.22443986637252852, "text": "Battle aces", "index": 2, "poolNo": 155.29291397851182, "userId": "evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 536.6203209044319, "textFts": "'ace':2 'battl':1", "contractId": "gn2UnnLO3LSUpqSQVQwF", "createdTime": 1718091103604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "hz3nvw1c27", "prob": 0.22443986637252852, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 155.29291397851182, "userId": "evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 536.6203209044319, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gn2UnnLO3LSUpqSQVQwF", "createdTime": 1718091103604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690828085307 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718091137714 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | iJRStCrw0awwjDq8ml4d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-someonellm-write-fanfic-of-gwe | 0 | Will someone/LLM write fanfic of gwern saving janus/repligate in castle, falling in love, and saving the world by 2029? | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718092041851 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718092041851 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cDu93hu4TxxIGHl3KuA3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-janusrepligate-alex-zhugaspode | 0 | Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029 | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718092471366 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718092471366 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fGkX8ILzV1GUOjOFw53l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-fanfic-featuring-leopold-asche | 0 | Will fanfic featuring Leopold Aschenbrenner building the death star exist by 2029 | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718092599581 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718092599581 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tW5ZNVYZdsGvN2cTKFAr | {"NO": 43.98420035390713, "YES": 227.35436633012932} | 0.16210080598356325 | will-leopold-aschenbrenner-be-sanct | 130 | Will Leopold Aschenbrenner be sanctioned by the PRC by 2029 | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718092657636 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.33789919401643675} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.645633669870677, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719099603581 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719099600533 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | InfkbfL3uNM9GNq9qgKy | {"NO": 420.0840252084027, "YES": 2380.4761428476168} | 0.14999999999999997 | will-there-be-a-relatively-selfsust | 8066.238267886111 | Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050? | 2524690740000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.959049184714801 | False | basic | public | 1718092744785 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Self-Sustaining Space Colony:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - A space colony must be established that can support human life autonomously with a sustainable supply of necessary matter and energy.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Requirements for Self-Sustaining:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The colony must be capable of producing its own food, water, and oxygen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - It must have reliable sources of energy sufficient to support the needs of its inhabitants.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The infrastructure should allow for recycling and reusing resources to a significant extent, reducing dependency on external supplies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Realistic Expectations:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - It must be realistically expected that humans can live autonomously in the colony for extended periods.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The colony does not need to be failure-proof against all possible disasters, rare events, or long-term degradation but must be sustainable under normal operational conditions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.35000000000000003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 156.36370576498743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718280937572 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 50 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718092745039}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718092745041}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718092745046}] | ["science-default", "technology-default", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718280934359 | 1718222324433 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999944 | mjzoWUpD5edLMgSt7EWl | {"NO": 2380.476142847617, "YES": 420.084025208403} | 0.8499999999999998 | will-vladimir-putin-be-alive-on-1st | 7091.252961371961 | Will Vladimir Putin be alive on 1st January 2026? | 1767311940000 | biJAK5HhSRS5QD3X4ODnNgEWhRr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.954390389922573 | False | basic | public | 1718095324714 | Daisy W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Yes” if he is still alive on that date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“No” if he dies before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it’s unclear whether he is alive or not on that date I’ll extend the resolution up to 1st June 2026. If it’s still unclear whether he is alive on 1st June 2026 I will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.01511092387096813, "month": 0.34999999999999976} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 99.80570108741018, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DaisyWelham | 1719993157792 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705674736043 | 0 | [{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1718095324845}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1718095324859}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hXGBmhMWy8gwn7p", "createdTime": 1718095324858}] | ["russia", "death-markets", "vladimir-putin"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719993154628 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 3w6SzgyB3OElQbKHNg7l | {"NO": 335.40165880130746, "YES": 2981.4998636974624} | 0.1011189679664154 | will-elons-grok-phone-be-announced | 2540.153363026824 | Will Elon's "Grok phone" be announced in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.745467233133 | False | basic | public | 1718095765034 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 10th after WWDC Elon Musk hinted at building a phone powered by Grok AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/elon-musk-threatens-to-ban-apple-devices-over-openai-integration-hints-grok", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/elon-musk-threatens-to-ban-apple-devices-over-openai-integration-hints-grok", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ff-DVzPDKou.36?alt=media&token=a8ccba77-78be-4152-a2c1-880be8d02257", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve Yes if any concrete plan to release the Grok phone, or any other Grok-related or X-related AI-enabled consumer hardware device is made in 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For comparison, something like the \"Solana phone\" announcement would count. There is no need for the device to be made, have a price point, or take deposits. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The announcement would come from official company sources and confirmed by Elon Musk. A hint or ambiguity will not resolve in a Yes market. A meme or single word tweet like \"Phone\" will also not resolve the market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.09250178545860976, "month": -0.3988810320335846} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.39639714529104, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720066814598 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1718095765179}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1718095765186}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1718095765188}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1718095765191}, {"name": "Smartphones", "slug": "smartphones", "groupId": "5b102142-6eae-474e-9e37-810cea2b92e4", "createdTime": 1718095765194}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "google-ef2cf716540e", "iphone", "smartphones"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720066811522 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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mMu2cdYWn7VeREi44FNw | which-opening-move-will-gukesh-d-pl | 189.0182777682497 | Which opening move will Gukesh D play most during the Classical portion of the 2024 World Chess Championship? | 1734325140000 | TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718103086149 | John Carpenter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The high-stakes match is provisionally scheduled between November 20th and December 15th, 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 14 classical games. Slated. Betting will stop after the first move on the last game that Gukesh plays white for. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If multiple moves tie, both will be selected as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.481489445212218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JohnCarpenter | 1718299329460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ijinps5wwn", "prob": 0.3789962274186339, "text": "e4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.530363788954862, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.00145203406096, "textFts": "'e4':1", "contractId": "mMu2cdYWn7VeREi44FNw", "createdTime": 1718103086149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.12100377258136608, "month": -0.12100377258136608}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.12100377258136608, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.12100377258136608}, {"id": "gghawitgw1", "prob": 0.30838931100304806, "text": "d4", "index": 1, "poolNo": 16.69393886078897, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.43873780848757, "textFts": "'d4':1", "contractId": "mMu2cdYWn7VeREi44FNw", "createdTime": 1718103086149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.19161068899695194, "month": -0.19161068899695194}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.19161068899695194, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.19161068899695194}, {"id": "5gyf24do6s", "prob": 0.15979551389595642, "text": "c4", "index": 2, "poolNo": 10.902593052762032, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.32581203163076, "textFts": "'c4':1", "contractId": "mMu2cdYWn7VeREi44FNw", "createdTime": 1718103086149, "probChanges": {"day": 0.24018843485672806, "week": -0.1000160512473155, "month": -0.1000160512473155}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.24018843485672806, "probChangeWeek": -0.1000160512473155, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.1000160512473155}, {"id": "v2fp5tbdcb", "prob": 0.07008655178133695, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6.863349125528471, "userId": "TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.06341358554677, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mMu2cdYWn7VeREi44FNw", "createdTime": 1718103086149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.41325570855905486, "month": -0.41325570855905486}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.41325570855905486, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.41325570855905486}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716594703165 | 0 | [{"name": "Ding Liren", "slug": "ding-liren", "groupId": "915eef4d-24d0-4533-bfdc-e88abc6aa91e", "createdTime": 1718103086343}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718103086340}] | ["ding-liren", "chess"] | 0.25 | 1718299326232 | 1718103170249 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH | what-will-my-style-score-on-k21-be | 4815.623224092732 | What will my style score on K2.1 be? | 1718137990070 | LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | qsqdhj12yu | public | 1718105399483 | Aprameya Tripathy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This was a problem on a mop test. I submitted my entire solution on the inside of a paper crane. I also did my best to ensure the solution was neat. I also put instructions on the crane of how to unfold it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.102207568838885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718137990070 | 1000 | AprameyaTripathy | 1718137990070 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLiRYKntUBwnhyVIJzk9crrq_tgPSf-RD35U-qWU9iK5ek=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ndb4qlte4b", "prob": 0.004652678997601071, "text": "<=0.5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.0924464471193, "userId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3656.5859775172667, "textFts": "'0.5':1", "contractId": "HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH", "resolverId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "createdTime": 1718105399483, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09029148784397877, "week": -0.09029148784397877, "month": -0.09029148784397877}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09029148784397877, "probChangeWeek": -0.09029148784397877, "resolutionTime": 1718137990070, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.09029148784397877}, {"id": "ku3o2bi4ei", "prob": 0.0044205697085567975, "text": "0.6", "index": 1, "poolNo": 16.658702517285747, "userId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3751.792790293668, "textFts": "'0.6':1", "contractId": "HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH", "resolverId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "createdTime": 1718105399483, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11069515436086895, "week": -0.11069515436086895, "month": -0.11069515436086895}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.11069515436086895, "probChangeWeek": -0.11069515436086895, "resolutionTime": 1718137990070, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.11069515436086895}, {"id": "qsqdhj12yu", "prob": 0.9797402682670734, "text": "0.7", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1738.515802576485, "userId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.950205288542634, "textFts": "'0.7':1", "contractId": "HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH", "resolverId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "createdTime": 1718105399483, "probChanges": {"day": 0.001987955826715848, "week": 0.001987955826715848, "month": 0.001987955826715848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.001987955826715848, "probChangeWeek": 0.001987955826715848, "resolutionTime": 1718137990070, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.001987955826715848}, {"id": "m1kcbhm4t5", "prob": 0.0054308654683958195, "text": "0.8", "index": 3, "poolNo": 18.47383423651104, "userId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3383.1634083019017, "textFts": "'0.8':1", "contractId": "HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH", "resolverId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "createdTime": 1718105399483, "probChanges": {"day": 0.12381630014192563, "week": 0.12381630014192563, "month": 0.12381630014192563}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.12381630014192563, "probChangeWeek": 0.12381630014192563, "resolutionTime": 1718137990070, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.12381630014192563}, {"id": "6xzxn76uus", "prob": 0.005755617558372915, "text": ">=0.9", "index": 4, "poolNo": 19.02126517664192, "userId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3285.796156017538, "textFts": "'0.9':1", "contractId": "HyaWgopi98bbvP8Qe8JH", "resolverId": "LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1", "createdTime": 1718105399483, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0751823862362061, "week": 0.0751823862362061, "month": 0.0751823862362061}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0751823862362061, "probChangeWeek": 0.0751823862362061, "resolutionTime": 1718137990070, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.0751823862362061}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706669521212 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718137971752 | {"qsqdhj12yu": 100} | LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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VkTpKXYlVWKZkfBWRmbg | which-jockey-will-win-the-most-2024 | 19052.89058250648 | Which Jockey Will Win The Most 2024 Royal Ascot Races? | 1719072900000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718110491088 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Royal Ascot consists of thirty-five thoroughbred races between June 18th and 22nd inclusive. Runners ship from around the world. 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