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0.5000000000000002 | VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK | {"NO": 54.415138005012196, "YES": 183.77239067332502} | 0.22845502578137797 | will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before | 298.3312208741597 | Will we get synthetic lungs before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718136155653 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic lungs have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.10775317919498631, "month": -0.271544974218622} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.423556896350793, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719930236819 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Transplants", "slug": "transplants", "groupId": "154a97c9-e22f-4869-ac4a-9cb5bd0d18bb", "createdTime": 1718136155850}, {"name": "Synthetic Organs", "slug": "synthetic-organs", "groupId": "c291e83e-23fe-4420-8782-1a71fb514a1e", "createdTime": 1718136155866}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupI... | ["transplants", "synthetic-organs", "medicine", "science-default", "biotech"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719930233745 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | WKq6GaVqMiLvDAAxbMCh | {"NO": 4566.987476073127, "YES": 218.9627200072465} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-miytdyzmiv | 3607 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 12 than it closed on June 11? | 1718222480772 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.89933000800945 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718136345975 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.01252392687271, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718222480772 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718222480772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718136346114}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718136346121}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1... | ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718221376093 | 0.95 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jheKoycT51JMIqcAQMyd | {"NO": 63.11674716989148, "YES": 158.43655524710394} | 0.28488289942569495 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-fltj6hjcme | 60 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2028? | 1835909940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718136360535 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2028.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.21511710057430505} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522274826 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718136360783}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718136360786}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 171... | ["medicine", "science-default", "health", "atherosclerosis", "biotech"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522271778 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7RqfQa0I0hviAhkckOMw | what-countries-will-win-medals-in-t | 74 | What countries will win medals in the Archery Men's Individual at the Paris Olympics? [BRONZE=16%,SILVER=33%,GOLD=50%] | 1722754740000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718136875105 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A country resolves to the percentage in the title depending on the medal won. The medal winners will be determined on August 4th. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.08825669955185, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | SaviorofPlant | 1718150291973 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "sh3z20yi60", "prob": 0.11668832651632924, "text": "Brazil", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.792709567173661, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.12922041100012, "textFts": "'brazil':1", "contractId": "7RqfQa0I0hviAhkckOMw", "createdTime": 1718136875105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Archery", "slug": "archery", "groupId": "v1bJhBqf6cBCfpsxngc5", "createdTime": 1718136875275}, {"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1718136875278}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi",... | ["archery", "2024-summer-olympics", "sports-default", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 1718150288576 | 1718137079785 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | o0PbcHUo2ZMROqR0YCj1 | {"NO": 23.198785298903417, "YES": 431.0570519600742} | 0.05106986723359919 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-2yc43pefpa | 504.85519807084086 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2037? | 2119906740000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718137371154 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2037.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.007430703511028286, "month": -0.4489301327664008} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.40806136163525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719912355213 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718137371357}, {"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "groupId": "osAdS5WK8oeGbRncQHQU", "createdTime": 1718137371358}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1718137371358... | ["medicine", "cryonics", "biotech", "cryopreservation", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912352147 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | HAARQBlOVqXRCeZ3XKpf | {"NO": 105.39711300465893, "YES": 94.87925916488781} | 0 | will-i-finish-a-ui-demo-of-my-writi | 16.401506051331474 | Will I finish a UI demo of my writing tool by my next manager one on one? | 1718899292815 | lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718138109706 | Alex | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should have 2/3 features in a prototype stage", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5476730104649822, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718899292815 | 100 | Alex | 1718899292815 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644869599300 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1718138109904}, {"name": "Smol Beans", "slug": "smol-beans", "groupId": "XdKmDFqB6Hzet3fYAoW9", "createdTime": 1718138170982}, {"name": "Software Development", "slug": "software-development", "groupId": "08a01e77-... | ["personal-goals", "smol-beans", "software-development", "programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718145464066 | 1718303968268 | 0.53 | lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nQSVB8BLm637pmW07QBI | nhl-finals-game-3-oilers-vs-panther | 2662.3099859486965 | NHL finals game 3: Oilers vs Panthers | 1718336882973 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718138551978 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may add more outcomes of the game. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is am unlinked multiple choice, each choice has its own resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.380703855299103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718336882973 | 299 | Haws | 1718385964557 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "dz3n8xo6if", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Will Bouchard have 3 shots on goal?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 280.75534647645986, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.835912590671313, "textFts": "'3':4 'bouchard':2 'goal':7 'shot':5", "contractId": "nQSVB8BLm637pmW07QBI", "resolution": "Y... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "Florida Panthers", "slug": "florida-panthers", "groupId": "10566b7e-e1be-4c02-9bc8-8adf18baf199", "createdTime": 1718138552198}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1718138552200}, {"name": "Edmonton Oilers", "slug": "edmonton-oilers", "groupId": "156daa78-b50d... | ["florida-panthers", "nhl", "edmonton-oilers"] | 0.25 | 1718335077246 | 1718385963337 | 0.99 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ZTqsaJS9G4SEhbCISdzc | which-nation-will-win-the-dgg-goon | 69.74700694247178 | Which Nation Will Win the DGG Goon Cave Server's Diplomacy Game? | 1722463140000 | xkp4Gj4UcNZNju7UK40WIwbqE0M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718138903657 | 天线宝宝 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A game of Diplomacy started a few days ago at the DGG Goon Cave server. Which nation(s) will end up winning?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check the game here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9314984141546016, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | tianxianbaobao | 1719034331502 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y7gcq769lc", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Austria", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.285714285714286, "userId": "xkp4Gj4UcNZNju7UK40WIwbqE0M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.285714285714286, "textFts": "'austria':1", "contractId": "ZTqsaJS9G4SEhbCISdzc", "createdTime": 1718138903658, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666837341076 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1718138903848}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.25 | 1719034328435 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM | which-ai-persona-will-win-the-miss | 3902.5687227344074 | Which AI persona will win the "Miss AI" competition? | 1720756740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718139223965 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://miss-ai.webflow.io", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://miss-ai.webflow.io/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-pri... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 76.63006250870455, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718767160702 | 0 | 43 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vzdbg9mqim", "prob": 0.10033069025045875, "text": "Kenza Layli", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.65756431145249, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.083603844699, "textFts": "'kenza':1 'layli':2", "contractId": "bmnXOigFg9yFyz4xvdWM", "createdTime": 1718139223965, "probChanges":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718139224126}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1718168145697}, {"name": "Contests", "slug": "contests", "groupId": "8XcQpbyDvqaijNB4TOhx", "createdTime": 17181681481... | ["ai", "celebrities", "contests", "entertainment", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1718767157437 | 1718323501064 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | dl0KtplznIGGy6pp5AOk | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066198} | 0 | will-joey-chestnut-compete-at-natha | 9781.732113916945 | Will Joey Chestnut compete at Nathan's hot dog eating contest in 2024? | 1720109750407 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718140629509 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reports suggest that 16-time winner Mr. Chestnut was banned for taking an endorsement deal with Impossible Foods.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/sports/16-time-winner-joey-chestnut-banned-2024-nathan-s-hot-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02681818001259937, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.72360338301592, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720109750407 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720109750407 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720021585009 | 1720109721035 | 0.01 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3865745611840788 | 6qSDHpqU8H2i8r2ZvMts | {"NO": 7204.96058507318, "YES": 16651.43628560174} | 0.2142557981974131 | will-media-coverage-about-manifest | 21643.953652761396 | Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups? | 1735718340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.954269795988048 | False | plus | public | 1718147843458 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last year, we had a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYT article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:u... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.28574420180258686} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 517.5369637302463, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SG | 1719549786692 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1718147843592}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718147843611}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719549783322 | 1718564315301 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mv1gF2fnUnC4xyhDdYAq | who-will-be-the-top-scorer-in-the-c | 2628.931357017927 | Who will be the top scorer in the Copa America 2024 [add responses] | 1721026740000 | BAnT8S1Y7OZFMrTZDR7sb5GeJyu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718148342783 | SJRL | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.83285877225218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 178.8720082550496 | 1300 | sjrl | 1720212064742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJF_cfWLcXmnZHvwk_-3f3HbbFHWZ581HCyNNlPycHjyQZf=s96-c | 8 | 6 | ANYONE | [{"id": "os7hqlmdfz", "prob": 0.10729300529682116, "text": "Lionel Messi", "index": 0, "poolNo": 115.56065147455602, "userId": "BAnT8S1Y7OZFMrTZDR7sb5GeJyu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 961.4960602361729, "textFts": "'lionel':1 'messi':2", "contractId": "mv1gF2fnUnC4xyhDdYAq", "createdTime": 1718148342783, "probChang... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696058806818 | 0 | [{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1718148342922}, {"name": "2024 Copa América", "slug": "2024-copa-america-ca8b804a91a3", "groupId": "3e0d8e7b-f80f-40c4-a905-6bb327611bc4", "createdTime": 1718148342933}, {"name": "Argentina", "slug": "argentina", "group... | ["brazil-3292d24d179f", "2024-copa-america-ca8b804a91a3", "argentina", "usmnt"] | 0.25 | 1720212061644 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | 0fVmzBDbjIAzUj0Z8A7l | {"NO": 1009.4347180723737, "YES": 943.9477792036782} | 0.1482724745446268 | will-nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-ali | 10 | Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888513794005988 | False | public | 1718148453195 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00827247454462679} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5652819276262651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718173707385 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718148453379}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718173704118 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3194353076818291 | L6wVzmSJO9MOwJkMGPoE | {"NO": 9328.70822573922, "YES": 10428.250546564781} | 0.2957143482192511 | polymarket-national-rally-coalition | 18920.269539452063 | [Polymarket] National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election? | 1719730740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.207920808620492 | False | plus | public | 1718148476341 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CNN", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe/macron-dissolves-french-parliament-europe-intl/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.055714348219250864, "month": -0.20428565178074892} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 361.95789537964185, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ziddletwix | 1719877387044 | 0 | 34 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718148476493}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1718148476492}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "cr... | ["politics-default", "world-default", "geopolitics", "france"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699992052 | 1719877385300 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6A4WSR1uHamWMs4lp7xQ | {"NO": 115.88705088422256, "YES": 86.29091795588567} | 0.5731932690246356 | will-i-solve-my-photo-bug-in-no-man | 16.401506051331474 | Will i solve my photo bug in No Man's Sky by 2025? | 1735718340000 | xULIs4V4S5ag3T5XjHGYXOMfLIm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718148776611 | Zander | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today i was playing No Man's Sky on Xbox Series S. My quest asked me to take a photo of a resource depot. I selected this quest. It might have directed me to a specific depot... it did not, at least, direct me to a specific different planet. I trav... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07319326902463563} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5144551671089175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CommanderZander | 1718177305640 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706651753925 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718148776760}, {"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1718148776764}, {"name": "Pseudo-bounty", "slug": "pseudobounty", "groupId": "1e029c7b-ccc1-4dcb-b79a-0cf25ae25bf5", "createdTime"... | ["gaming", "bugs", "pseudobounty", "no-mans-sky", "xbox"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718177302486 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8oTDoGlTA0ukZLIubGsu | what-do-you-think-is-the-real-chanc | 0 | What do you think is the real chance? (Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?) | 1718488740000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718148820362 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/market/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/market/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e", "class": "break-anyw... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718488740818 | Base | 1718148820731 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1718148820731}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | ["ji4oqg8fwp"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 1CGRvHYDe1qCPRRbtlCl | {"NO": 32.41979957386202, "YES": 308.45348001664854} | 0.09510806952310183 | will-trumps-favorability-increase-a | 1094.423405138586 | Will Trump’s favorability increase after sentencing? | 1722495540000 | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718150307307 | zaperrer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After Trump is sentenced in the porn star hush money trial will his favorability increase?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Favorability will be measured by reputable polls including YouGov and... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.4048919304768982} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.916804203733587, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | zaperrer | 1718725971272 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681846792957 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718150307461}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1718150307463}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c... | ["donald-trump", "magaland", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718725968133 | 1718206443562 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rLLMC4UtXv3fEgdXClBC | how-high-will-will-tesla-stock-reac | 839.0957041012758 | How high will "Will Tesla stock reach..." reach by market close from the creation of this market? | 1723186740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718150758160 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As displayed by the UI, as of the creation of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.654231051791216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DanMan314 | 1720023247191 | 0 | 10 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "z9lxo9cev2", "prob": 0.98, "text": "60%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 98.61404143351373, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.0694987213423772, "textFts": "'60':1", "contractId": "rLLMC4UtXv3fEgdXClBC", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1718150758364}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718150758368}, {"name": "$TSLA", "slug": "tsla", "groupId": "288e80f2-83b9-4298-819a-6d12cac1dbba", "createdTime": 17181... | ["tech-stocks", "tesla", "tsla"] | 0.25 | 1720023243937 | 1718152478666 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
keUvOvIFmnhwqPgQCpke | who-will-win-the-special-election-i-i91ihv1uh8 | 7221.402037967486 | Who will win the special election in Ohio's 6th Congressional District? | 1718157358303 | NYhsf6NkAobcLZrJ3fVqGc92Odf1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | np93zdpbqg | public | 1718151147686 | aok | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.203515908413436, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718157358303 | 1000 | aok | 1718157358303 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcvaHqpEJ0CAlgI1FBF-nQFB1zdJxpJQ0M_sAqwDVMtqi8=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "w0qsm8w527", "prob": 0.017165267858048786, "text": "Michael Kripchak (D)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.72400386336483, "userId": "NYhsf6NkAobcLZrJ3fVqGc92Odf1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2675.284429081418, "textFts": "'d':3 'kripchak':2 'michael':1", "contractId": "keUvOvIFmnhwqPgQCpke", "resolverId": "NYhsf6N... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690866861496 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1718151147839}, {"name": "Ohio", "slug": "ohio", "groupId": "012c57e9-e347-44a5-8b23-51195404d520", "createdTime": 1718151147846}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHys... | ["2024-us-election", "ohio", "us-state-government", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1718156475069 | 1718156550203 | {"np93zdpbqg": 100} | NYhsf6NkAobcLZrJ3fVqGc92Odf1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9vNxYQe20qLYVWIeg36U | {"NO": 685.5462555909141, "YES": 1458.6907766537763} | 0 | will-vibecamp-be-viebcamp | 4025.7795163621777 | Will Vibecamp be Viebcamp? | 1718324210679 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.592601227658585 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718154305978 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff Vie (Twitter user @viemccoy) is at Vibecamp.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.03751231057028, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718324210679 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1718324210679 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "Vibecamp", "slug": "vibecamp", "groupId": "d1e873dd-c328-4a3f-a39a-64b5da070546", "createdTime": 1718154321760}] | ["vibecamp"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718307620603 | 1718290537809 | 0.33 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | VLS8DaWzaG2DRFdrQTVa | {"NO": 120.21006922922747, "YES": 83.1877068544989} | 0.5910097521407726 | will-the-us-government-sue-openai-f | 40 | Will the U.S. Government sue OpenAI for violating antitrust laws by 2030? | 1893571140000 | SxTdvFjmDQUtrqGjm7ulTdAAfuW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718154316670 | Julius Simonelli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.09100975214077256} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2898627991957363, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JuliusSimonelli | 1718177278128 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Sg_yb3xtycV_S2osuPYxUSeV8etIYSAc2XQGCkQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673123781451 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718154316840}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1718154316844}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1718154316914}... | ["ai", "openai", "ai-regulation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718177274982 | 1718154336918 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 50wvVEqjZDSJhYFtdtB7 | {"NO": 56.258620630519275, "YES": 177.75053650311483} | 0 | will-tetraspace-be-at-deepfates-off | 314.36439049380095 | Will Tetraspace be at deepfates office hours today? | 1718237501140 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718156064262 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.885073003084257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718237501140 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1718237501140 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "Tetraspace", "slug": "tetraspace", "groupId": "SpOYh2aGkJtKCq37OO9p", "createdTime": 1718156064419}] | ["tetraspace"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718217361604 | 1718161557528 | 0.24 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XcOpsa6BTwNsUlQSTtYz | how-long-will-tslabull-be-making-la | 2027.1304911312764 | How long will TSLABull be making large (>50k) bets for, in the next 3 months? | 1726210740000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718158779706 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the last time interval within 3 months when TSLAbull has bet >50k in a market on a single day", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.82929085355607, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jacksonpolack | 1720037841008 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "h5ml7pip5z", "prob": 0.008788192595668648, "text": "He's almost done (last bet on Tuesday Jun 11 2024, pacific time)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.9220333932092346, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 216.78430153128124, "textFts": "'11':10 '2024':11 'almost':3 'bet':6 'done':4 '... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720037837700 | 1718162772325 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn | {"NO": 578.5146679432805, "YES": 1728.5646421985962} | 0.2507562984073158 | will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi | 23859.00443614311 | Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024? | 1725256740000 | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61313085180909 | False | basic | public | 1718159543627 | Mark Bowen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close whenever GRRM or his publisher announces the completion of Winds of Winter, or September 2024, whichever comes first.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.0007562984073152257, "month": -0.24924370159268422} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 316.3881039455313, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarkBowen | 1720025010396 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | 75 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707625075147 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718159543777}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718159543784}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f97... | ["culture-default", "books", "game-of-thrones", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025007054 | 1718217007813 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mu3MpZJ0C56wHXoG616M | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-stephen-hsu-or-razib-khan-beco | 0 | Will Stephen Hsu OR razib Khan become sperm donor by 2027 | 1798779540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718160539887 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718160539887 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | KJ00h3sjKYb9i2BQXSfS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jsuarez-pufferfish-rl-environm | 0 | Will @jsuarez pufferfish RL environment be used to calculate friston free energy OR complexity/accuracy/surprise by 2028 | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718160750872 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718160856279 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | {"NO": 305.133511051292, "YES": 3277.253935677706} | 0.0851760217421214 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | 6782.4216247607765 | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | 1830326340000 | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.242208718596984 | False | basic | public | 1718161201373 | John David Pressman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though the brain takes in billions of bits per second in raw information through the ocular nerves, touch, etc, there is a serial embedding bottleneck that constrains the retained information to a much smaller amount. The conscious mind probab... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.4148239782578786} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.65974134730534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JohnDavidPressman | 1719025704112 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717581521302 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718161201539}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718161201559}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiO... | ["technology-default", "economics-default", "science-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719025701045 | 1718167698061 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
M6xbrKOmMxkMlDa38omM | will-polymarket-create-a-token-in-t-j8cyw76w05 | 1495.7448155904633 | Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year? | 1862110740000 | tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718161395411 | MaybeNotDepends | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve Yes if Polymarket creates a token that is tradable. If they do not create a token by Jan 1, 2028 - it will resolve to the last option.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.088427360680054, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaybeNotDepends | 1720077016028 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c | 12 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yk0b1itcp6", "prob": 0.40895289220753284, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 207.95319745681968, "userId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 300.5483962946897, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "M6xbrKOmMxkMlDa38omM", "createdTime": 1718161395411, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670574693580 | 0 | [{"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime": 1718161395579}, {"name": "Airdrop", "slug": "airdrop", "groupId": "a9ba3c96-4b6a-464a-a33a-8e79ebd8cda9", "createdTime": 1718161780657}] | ["polymarket", "airdrop"] | 0.25 | 1720077012953 | 1718161758160 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | BvTK6G4LTEXpKCcWqASO | {"NO": 122.84299978036638, "YES": 81.40471999120187} | 0.6014412298837644 | will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-his | 3302.2851551734752 | Will TSLABull be profitable on his TSLA market? | 1723186740000 | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.490529402060712 | False | play | public | 1718162076107 | ismellpillows | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At time of writing, this is the state of affairs", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FwdYmFc3JQJ.jpeg?alt=media&token=... | BINARY | {"day": -0.028558770116235532, "week": 0.4524797514070523, "month": 0.10144122988376436} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.79868002454469, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 101.07289080369074 | 100 | ismellpillows | 1720215612668 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712019700747 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720215609302 | 1718226303377 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN | who-will-win-masters-league-season-5x9hpf99ai | 212421.12543991557 | Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)? | 1719903540000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.839093205250548 | True | plus | ec89thou2x | public | 1718165791643 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Source ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leagues", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 984.4640760963347, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719934255547 | 12000 | Joshua | 1719934599777 | 0 | 28 | 12 | ANYONE | [{"id": "hp9ief49du", "prob": 0.0003016594823982154, "text": "@SemioticRivalry", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.090239604920498, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103032.93200743593, "textFts": "'semioticrivalri':1", "contractId": "HHz6ugnOf3H9F2CLm5gN", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajsw... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718165791789}, {"name": "Masters League", "slug": "masters-league", "groupId": "33de3f34-cff5-4952-a0d8-e731c2c37f5f", "createdTime": 1718165791792}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", ... | ["nonpredictive", "masters-league", "manifold-users", "manifold-leagues", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | False | 1719884901964 | 1719934597986 | {"ec89thou2x": 100} | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | XphUSU4DyRYPEyhlMJMN | {"NO": 133.9878365573117, "YES": 74.63364031348188} | 0.6422533219832154 | will-amazon-release-a-trailer-for-i | 35 | Will Amazon release a trailer for its upcoming Warhammer show by the end of the year? | 1735707540000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718171081818 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1422533219832154} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.012163442688292, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Hyperlincoln | 1718376118163 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718171081956}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1718171081962}] | ["entertainment", "tv"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718376115103 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Z5tJBDZuv1y02UgfAqVx | by-when-will-i-publish-my-recent-me | 3106.618300929053 | By when will I publish my recent mech interp work? | 1721372340000 | 2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718171543253 | Noa Nabeshima | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example to Alignment Forum or ArXiV. I may trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.994587593503994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NoaNabeshima | 1719890019796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "tyciythsbq", "prob": 0.1508399926000935, "text": "July 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 105.36672797278081, "userId": "2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 593.1663742670789, "textFts": "'4':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "Z5tJBDZuv1y02UgfAqVx", "createdTime": 1718171543253, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646363457920 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719890016745 | 1718171639133 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.50943235219525 | SVWX1xIRBRu1SCSubWZF | {"NO": 16110.945589055835, "YES": 6235.747326702421} | 0.7284819729555426 | will-someone-under-70-be-elected-us | 13948.166882388457 | Will someone under 70 be elected US president in 2028? | 1857196740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.838263676444748 | False | plus | public | 1718172434806 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.22848197295554262} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 355.8324443958128, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | JonathanRay | 1719575738184 | 0 | 124 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718172435161}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718172435178}, {"name": "2028 US presidential election", "slug": "2028-us-presidential-election",... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2028-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719575735133 | 1718203908770 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HpmWq3GNmSDSie2aiM7t | will-i-broadly-agree-with-the-claim | 5165 | By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”? | 2556259140000 | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.778643453276961 | False | plus | public | 1718172770828 | AdamK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will pay attention to the statement \"The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%\" and occasionally report my beliefs if asked in the comments. This market resolves YES to all the years greater than or equal to the fi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 115.5154068767115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | AdamK | 1718317208064 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zy56ktk0l2", "prob": 0.11778354294560006, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 381.98680359814654, "userId": "Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2861.138628403609, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "HpmWq3GNmSDSie2aiM7t", "createdTime": 1718172770828, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687620319599 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718172771074}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1718172771072}, {"name": "Formal Verification", "slug": "formal-verification", "groupId": "fc5eedc3-2e67-4f23-8f4b-f1... | ["ai", "ai-alignment", "formal-verification", "mathematics", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 1718228340832 | 1718184662918 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | qaUZlFTEyx8AVZsTVhRG | {"NO": 1411.6011612767986, "YES": 708.4153990745491} | 0.6658444031412926 | im-the-guy-who-injured-my-shoulder | 1865.8540336623112 | I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th? | 1721113140000 | PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58887913765244 | False | basic | public | 1718178625420 | Dan. W. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I define heal as full range of motion without pain and the ability to perform loaded strength training on that shoulder without pain or instability.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many people... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01584440314129265, "month": 0.16584440314129256} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.839368692401365, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanW | 1720111840232 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672858531132 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720111837168 | 1719750652997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | 4849.9062812105185 | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | 1924991940000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718179749033 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes, via [how we met]\" if/when I'm in a relationship before the end of 2030, otherwise resolves \"No\" at the end of 2030. I won't bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 93.25310949294735, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | gregrosent | 1720160085990 | 0 | 42 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "jtobhzrw0j", "prob": 0.30491702460187603, "text": "Yes, via \"traditional dating apps\" (e.g. Hinge, Tinder).", "index": 0, "poolNo": 383.5270612140275, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 874.2809005250424, "textFts": "'app':5 'date':4 'e.g':6 'hing':7 'tinder':8 'tradit':3 ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "manifold.love", "slug": "manifoldlove", "groupId": "b562b04e-9219-4867-93fd-e757254e291f", "createdTime": 1718179749180}, {"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1718179749180}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "created... | ["manifoldlove", "dating", "personal", "manifold-dating", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 1720160082861 | 1719163009244 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yHu7CRlCsbXNtwub1U5J | when-will-the-main-us-presidential | 3403.7237110302494 | When will the main US Presidential Candidates announce their running mates (VPs)? | 1735718340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718180002587 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm curious if my VP markets are timed correctly ( ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN", "label": "/Stralor/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445"}}, {"text": " & ", "type": "text"}, {"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 91.22940881388392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Stralor | 1720026654335 | 0 | 28 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "4qgiy6q3j4", "prob": 0.83, "text": "Biden: before the DNC", "index": 0, "poolNo": 371.809005142748, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.70980367221904, "textFts": "'biden':1 'dnc':4", "contractId": "yHu7CRlCsbXNtwub1U5J", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1718180002734}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1718180002738}, {"name": "Vice President", "slug": "vice-president", "groupId":... | ["trump-vp", "future-us-presidents", "vice-president", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1720026651222 | 1719004540809 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | BJmoSlApTGPcScEqjeFW | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-marcel-hirscher-be-on-any-worl | 50 | Will Marcel Hirscher (NL/AT) be on any World Cup podium in the 2024/2025 ski season? | 1746050340000 | 108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1718180452702 | Marnix Vreugdenhil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve 'YES' if Austrian-Dutch skier Marcel Hirscher (now competing for the Netherlands) will get at least one podium placement (meaning 1st, 2nd or 3rd) in the World Cup 2024/2025 ski season. Will resolve N/A if he does not compete in the Wo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarnixVreugdenhil | 1718616839034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703774351876 | 0 | [{"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1718180452850}, {"name": "World Cup Skiing", "slug": "world-cup-skiing", "groupId": "88f83402-bcc4-4e6c-a723-195325a765d8", "createdTime": 1718180452857}, {"name": "🎿 skiing", "slug": "-skiing", "g... | ["the-netherlands", "world-cup-skiing", "-skiing", "austria", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718180492842 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8v2lO3SK2Ge6BkrSoaoa | {"NO": 12.118181322937858, "YES": 825.2063352997989} | 0 | will-i-promote-to-diamond-league-th | 1071.8319268642117 | Will I promote to 💎 Diamond league 💎 this month? | 1719867540000 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718180957222 | CyfralCoot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently I'm at Platinum rank 5 (at market creation). If I stay there, I would be promoted. If I fall down to 6th place, I would not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Planning to stay active a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5516843603731918, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.316106627876973, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719889344265 | 100 | CyfralCoot | 1719867540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | 13 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709980441447 | 0 | [{"name": "Diamond League", "slug": "diamond-league", "groupId": "a2deceab-60af-4f0d-9140-a29d0e6cdf33", "createdTime": 1718180957416}, {"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1718180957415}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNe... | ["diamond-league", "manifold-leagues", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719857100907 | 1719765834780 | 0.01 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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