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0.49999999999999994 | kjHWM4FChLv2MW9ftcfh | {"NO": 412.92755172642, "YES": 2421.732325244641} | 0.14567093395615713 | will-i-regret-having-drunk-one-beer | 1454.1853882309215 | Will I regret having drunk one beer and 4-5 shots on June 8, 2024 at manifest in one year? | 1749452340000 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.695908296980619 | False | basic | public | 1718122995540 | Raj Thimmiah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve only drank a handful of times and all from March onwards of this year. I tried drinking one beer and 4-5 shots and didn’t end up regretting it the next day. Will I regret this decision in one year?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = I do regret it and have a bad time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = I don’t regret it and have a good time", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.35432906604384284} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.08228652443774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | raj | 1718577959477 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644725300473 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1718122995691}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1718122995685}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718122995706}] | ["personal", "manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718577956398 | 1718124453795 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 5Zx9tY0zygR5ZsWmjzTh | {"NO": 69.67737584529385, "YES": 143.51860813764296} | 0.326823116193739 | 20241112-will-msft-close-above-541 | 78 | 2024-11-12: Will MSFT close above $541? | 1731473940000 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718123030143 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.173176883806261} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.212028361356262, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MRN267 | 1718641949297 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718123030304}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1718123030296}, {"name": "Microsoft", "slug": "microsoft", "groupId": "bKtvk7DIpkrzESy6I3ZK", "createdTime": 1718123030299}] | ["stocks", "tech-stocks", "microsoft"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718641946222 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | vXhfjF5LHHUAgZ9Cw36L | {"NO": 69.56824823536235, "YES": 143.74373731775074} | 0.32613379906887774 | 20241112-will-mstr-close-above-2015 | 45 | 2024-11-12: Will MSTR close above $2015? | 1731473940000 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718123069881 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.17386620093112226} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2562626822492542, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MRN267 | 1718123397476 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718123070044}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1718123070045}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718123070039}] | ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718123394252 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999997 | H8JcSnCifN8lgpbp9ZoR | {"NO": 300.6874222482105, "YES": 33.25712770168761} | 0.9004112278320541 | 20241119-will-tsla-close-above-132 | 204 | 2024-11-19: Will TSLA close above $132? | 1732078740000 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718123149670 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.20098638676353586, "month": 0.4004112278320541} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.312577751789535, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MRN267 | 1719964591950 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1718123149819}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718123149817}, {"name": "$TSLA", "slug": "tsla", "groupId": "288e80f2-83b9-4298-819a-6d12cac1dbba", "createdTime": 1718123149821}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718123149845}] | ["wall-street-bets", "stocks", "tsla", "tesla"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719964588692 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | aQf5flyFgFPGiiExUkJm | {"NO": 100.50378152592157, "YES": 9949.874371066227} | 0 | will-biden-be-40-or-higher-on-polym | 10920.780960647404 | Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st? | 1719817140000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718123465533 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the main 2024 US Presidential Election Polymarket:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1718122626800", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FosQYZpoJ32.png?alt=media&token=f1c09fe3-ab2c-4fe3-bede-87e7f0c85109", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve based on the price graph which shows what the price for YES shares was each past day. I'll resolve based on what is displayed to me, in PST. This is just based on the graph for YES price, not the NO price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In any ambiguous situation where the answer is not clearly YES, such as Polymarket crashing or something, I'll resolve to NO. Market resolves early to YES if the criteria are met, or otherwise remains open until July and then resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time Biden was at 40% was May 22nd, the last time he was at 39% was June 1st. As of market creation he is at 34%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02539175389935785, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 121.68806634048615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719855699707 | 1000 | Joshua | 1719817140000 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718123465681}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718123465687}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718123465695}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718123465692}, {"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime": 1718123465700}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "technology-default", "polymarket"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809888254 | 1719809870985 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A | when-will-the-first-agi-company-get | 2919.57505744632 | When will the first AGI company get nationalized? | 2413004340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718123641749 | Garrett Baker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All dates are specified inclusively. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"nationalization\" of an AGI company means the US government now owns the relevant AGI company or its intellectual property in a way distinct from typical military contracting & mandatory opsec requirements.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.14355901563088, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GarrettBaker | 1720025561811 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 22 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ybzxd044ig", "prob": 0.013237106180366791, "text": "EOY 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.898530550370413, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1930.6114647220843, "textFts": "'2024':2 'eoy':1", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0006336207641327481, "week": 0.003435745347821194, "month": -0.1531307192957917}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0006336207641327481, "probChangeWeek": 0.003435745347821194, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.1531307192957917}, {"id": "2iul11dwr0", "prob": 0.2500000000000002, "text": "2025-2030", "index": 1, "poolNo": 129.09944487358064, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 387.29833462074146, "textFts": "'-2030':2 '2025':1", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": -0.029605985198506796, "week": 0.0195819026234558, "month": 0.04909448006821862}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.029605985198506796, "probChangeWeek": 0.0195819026234558, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.04909448006821862}, {"id": "gcygt51w8t", "prob": 0.11228275986814132, "text": "2031-2035", "index": 2, "poolNo": 79.52509827510491, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 628.7323258253963, "textFts": "'-2035':2 '2031':1", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": -0.014473540400672405, "week": -0.02634106560841977, "month": -0.0479574661949176}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.014473540400672405, "probChangeWeek": -0.02634106560841977, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.0479574661949176}, {"id": "i668lokqgo", "prob": 0.04633084024891249, "text": "2036-2040", "index": 3, "poolNo": 49.28573314508428, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1014.4923654237441, "textFts": "'-2040':2 '2036':1", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004138325361074446, "week": -0.00744603698643069, "month": -0.11845432780175438}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004138325361074446, "probChangeWeek": -0.00744603698643069, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.11845432780175438}, {"id": "he9vydr2zr", "prob": 0.038230503567514014, "text": "2041-2045", "index": 4, "poolNo": 44.58148308782652, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1121.541872025633, "textFts": "'-2045':2 '2041':1", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0031154993740626913, "week": -0.005587535017002314, "month": -0.12701076650215523}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0031154993740626913, "probChangeWeek": -0.005587535017002314, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.12701076650215523}, {"id": "gztqmijb55", "prob": 0.5399187901350652, "text": "2046-∞ or never", "index": 5, "poolNo": 242.23225649053225, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 206.4134674894312, "textFts": "'2046':1 'never':3", "contractId": "pO1w7LXGbxiVBchKyb6A", "createdTime": 1718123641749, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05196697109844939, "week": 0.01635698964057586, "month": 0.3974587997264004}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.05196697109844939, "probChangeWeek": 0.01635698964057586, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.3974587997264004}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644448539248 | 0 | [{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1718123641945}] | ["agi"] | 0.25 | 1720025557252 | 1718908329179 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6915717495770833 | 5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK | {"NO": 8150.505937815736, "YES": 12423.085352965616} | 0.5953197011282546 | will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe | 30309.78737715168 | Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? | 1798876740000 | SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.664612270632644 | False | plus | public | 1718124099086 | Eliezer Yudkowsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it. Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vide ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1800389245527539828", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.003303741890688716, "week": 0.0811256420548474, "month": 0.09531970112825461} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 884.8914039312316, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50.402352909618855 | 11000 | EliezerYudkowsky | 1720171194487 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrJG8Ay-yrvNsp-sZCoQMge2UwXm6PX7H6OTgmpPg=s96-c | 188 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659746058038 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1718124099232}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718124099250}] | ["openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720171191312 | 1718764815207 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QkxEMTfwGvF1OCrbfuZt | will-i-have-a-new-serious-relations | 2861.8857174354116 | Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years? | 1876510740000 | wNkuCd4vjqOgiwBIXCVPVHRneI63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.847250592384142 | False | plus | public | 1718124348820 | Vanessa Kosoy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"serious relationship\" is defined s.t. the all of the following conditions must hold:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will date for at least 6 months.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During some period of 6 months in which we will be dating, we will spend some time with each other on at least 15 different days.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will have sex on at least 8 different occasions.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My manifold.love profile: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifoldlove.com/VanessaKosoy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldlove.com/VanessaKosoy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Additional context: Out of the relationships I had in my life, 3 met those criteria (one pre-transition with a cisgender woman and two post-transition with transfeminine people) and another was marginal (post-transition, with a cisgender man).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Feel free to ask relevant questions about me!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not trade on this market.", 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0.5 | 3QrA649iZ1vRjzUy6Klm | {"NO": 95.5873436739692, "YES": 104.61636044734288} | 0.47745042527309434 | will-republicas-win-a-trifecta-in-n | 9 | Will repúblicas win a trifecta in november | 1731484740000 | K82ls4tSEfU5TH4eyAcxCeI7DWf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718129216917 | Chris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a chance republicans can win the white house, house and senate this year. Vote no if even one will go to the dems", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.022549574726905663} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.30045496388707854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Chris9947 | 1718179231500 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBZsFR8LA-UNLer5M35OAWvEKR12aR5eqKeZfQS7P__Zc=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708740452777 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718179228361 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LozsKGPfLsgoFC9WbjNW | who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high | 5062.025607938318 | Who will win the 1M USD buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament? | 1719671161116 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1718130237805 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each player pays $1 million entrance fee. Total prize pool is 3.9M and is split as follows: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st place $2 million", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd place $1.5 million", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3rd place $0.4 million", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th place $0", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tournament is 4 player round robin Rapid format (15 minutes with no increment). All matches will be played on 11th of November 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All players have confirmed that they have secured the funds and they want to play. 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0.5000000000000032 | ziCI9SX3WIfXgUgQ0NSy | {"NO": 994.9874371066201, "YES": 10.050378152592373} | 1 | will-india-beat-usa-2024-t20-cricke | 6778.009276112672 | Will India beat USA? 🏏 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup | 1718215488131 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718130385346 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOhj4OxNOgG.jpg?alt=media&token=437c205e-2571-4d53-8f08-2b03e9107046", "title": null}}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Group stage match", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no if score is tied (extremely rare), game is abandoned, or there is no result", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.05128393324789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718215488131 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1718215488131 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1718130385522}, {"name": "Cricket World Cup 2024", "slug": "cricket-world-cup-2024", "groupId": "cfb25dd3-3056-404d-a081-e7047539ce72", "createdTime": 1718130385521}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1718130385518}, {"name": "Cricket", "slug": "cricket", "groupId": "LcPYoqxSRdeQMms4lR3g", "createdTime": 1718130385528}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1718130385531}] | ["sports-betting", "cricket-world-cup-2024", "sports-default", "cricket", "india"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718215434936 | 1718215383222 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | S6kKBjATXOHIxotgS8Kq | {"NO": 173.02665635474125, "YES": 57.79456304985682} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-paste-in-vim-with | 77.40150605133148 | Will I be able to paste in vim with the p command within a week of posting this market? | 1718769540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718131572020 | Enopoletus Harding | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It worked for me a week ago but I seem to be stuck with this error message:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/1250158762094760008/Screenshot_7.png?ex=6669ec93&is=66689b13&hm=7c57f59c0939adcb9e6b43dfca8a79df63f3d6ffb17ba840b8f211ef76dbc1ae&", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/1250158762094760008/Screenshot_7.png?ex=6669ec93&is=66689b13&hm=7c57f59c0939adcb9e6b43dfca8a79df63f3d6ffb17ba840b8f211ef76dbc1ae&", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That is with the \"p\" command; Ctrl-v seems to work for some reason and I do not count it. Here is what it looks like now: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/1250165562248794156/Screenshot_8.png?ex=6669f2e8&is=6668a168&hm=5353e679adc6ac56432e8cd318ca0860eb087e1e773b8658cd8d154da2d98da1&", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/1250165562248794156/Screenshot_8.png?ex=6669f2e8&is=6668a168&hm=5353e679adc6ac56432e8cd318ca0860eb087e1e773b8658cd8d154da2d98da1&", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.920518226491041, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718808860583 | 100 | EnopoletusHarding | 1718769540000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646579574703 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718131572179}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718747065055 | 1718132480534 | 0.75 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | NOeu4K7Iwmb3STSJFkii | {"NO": 796.5377582243764, "YES": 1255.4332668788722} | 0.38818177668190884 | will-hunter-biden-serve-any-prison | 3632.0803390437136 | Will Hunter Biden serve any prison time for any of the 3 charges he was found guilty for? | 1720324740000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.4106557359387 | False | basic | public | 1718131809645 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he serves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ANY ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "amount of prison time on any of the 3 charges he was found guilty on.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/hunter-biden-trial-06-11-24/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/hunter-biden-trial-06-11-24/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.01970747328627892, "week": -0.01970747328627892, "month": -0.11181822331809116} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.59547771518034, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 52 | 1000 | Haws | 1720240629713 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "Hunter Biden", "slug": "hunter-biden", "groupId": "57ba045a-0d33-42ab-b9f6-64011bc2e013", "createdTime": 1718131809791}] | ["hunter-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720240626624 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | {"NO": 339.7072531295411, "YES": 2943.711065299711} | 0.10346146003475223 | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | 40106.734607493585 | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | 1735718340000 | SxTdvFjmDQUtrqGjm7ulTdAAfuW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.101452207435987 | False | basic | public | 1718132110600 | Julius Simonelli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lighthaven will be considered to have \"shut down\" if it is no longer controlled by Lightcone or another entity closely affiliated with the Rationalist/EA spaces. If it is sold to a standard commercial entity (e.g. effectively becomes the Rose Garden Inn again), it would be considered to have \"shut down\". If it is taken over by another funding organization within the Rat/EA space and continues to operate similarly, especially if it has many of the same personnel, it will not be considered to have shut down.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3965385399652478} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 537.7878051110598, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JuliusSimonelli | 1719437725773 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Sg_yb3xtycV_S2osuPYxUSeV8etIYSAc2XQGCkQ=s96-c | 58 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673123781451 | 0 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1718132110797}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719437722649 | 1719246654744 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PsmI5nFpoUK3rHbiNkRa | by-which-year-will-most-americans-h | 2334 | By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced? | 4134009540000 | SxTdvFjmDQUtrqGjm7ulTdAAfuW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718133261425 | Julius Simonelli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market aims to predict the year by which over 50% of living Americans will have had their full or partial DNA sequenced. 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0.5000000000000003 | uyCcw5fmUYcW3WAyddHZ | {"NO": 934.7789857223038, "YES": 1069.7715880158548} | 0.4663284618352605 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-t2or6lg54g | 2306.597674250279 | Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM? | 1925009940000 | VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571039650816736 | False | basic | public | 1718134229673 | Tossup | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this page for information about the competition: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://lab42.global/arcathon/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lab42.global/arcathon/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". See also this podcast for an interview with Francois Chollet about the challenge and his predictions: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/francois-chollet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/francois-chollet", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The fundamental characteristics of an \"LLM\" for the purposes of this question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sequence-to-sequence type model. (State-space and transformer models would both count, for example.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No substantial post-hoc computation (like tree search). Sampling as it is practiced now is allowed. Prompting as it is practiced now is allowed.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use my best judgement if it’s ambiguous. The main point is that the model should be in the class of models that LLM-naysayers (Chollet especially) refer to when they assert that LLMs cannot solve ARC narrowly and are off-pathway for AGI generally. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi", "label": "/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "W1KGdImLB5cb1p75M88e", "label": "/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1BymKcRd71UKFTCCo10s", "label": "/TheNotTooDistantFuture/arcagi-prize-2024-dwarkesh-podcast"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0336715381647395} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.34906982523441, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Tossup | 1719547953266 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690748798486 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718134229836}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1718134229838}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1718134229845}] | ["ai", "llms", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719547950147 | 1718313840842 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK | {"NO": 54.415138005012196, "YES": 183.77239067332502} | 0.22845502578137797 | will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before | 298.3312208741597 | Will we get synthetic lungs before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718136155653 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic lungs have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic lung is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. 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-1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.125040450879023, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.125040450879023}, {"id": "6m1tcevz6m", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Trump doesn't win", "index": 6, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'doesn':2 'trump':1 'win':4", "contractId": "4zFc7z2lIEvuqtMdese6", "createdTime": 1718146680319, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "Election margins", "slug": "election-margins", "groupId": "c584239b-b8ba-4491-855b-d02e31267ee5", "createdTime": 1718139841139}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718139841143}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718139841147}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718139841152}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718139841149}] | ["election-margins", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1718483391239 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | HLGV8vgMIQEB4UKKVyPv | {"NO": 54.49031437211424, "YES": 183.5188531251631} | 0.22894208212688938 | will-there-be-at-least-10-tesla-opt | 260 | Will there be at least 10 Tesla Optimus perfuming tasks autonomously at a Tesla factory by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.237743803890929 | False | play | public | 1718140145662 | TSLABull | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.08755126533643176, "month": -0.2710579178731106} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.139512489964044, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MolbyDick | 1720152589745 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3Fv6tHNtztWvt2EKzgxFCFO5vBboyToBEm5ne-O_e2iPy2vA10-am1HyumXwhHQ8TmgD7hUTB7yokY1_OnpMRIYz_I26jS_8xrIRYiLTpn4tz1ehGr5MBXc52cHtHOFIr75TBvfRBucNqWMi55HJ3gMafiLCsRRufPbWV9W75ebNkpPQr-Fajv1VVUfjMrOmDhzwcB0uEArrgF0lQ1aSuwd2JN11ZJo7Y7p4gyPbmMDureFH9Ppk6xmGp53c3N5lIgeS_dH309hrZWL-N1_L1xoWufgpSeq0GaYVcpChDe_uWm5muiM39lzL5xdzCh5CLJn2HsflObP9H_Ei2mQXM_JQa0PHtPI11wk4w90HMPihYAIv8U4GECdlSV7nKemKVQ5C9asqy40yji5loeo3jof6fSSvWMYvFj206ohJ0r-NviW0y2A-Pp_VCPDMPg8cLpToFGPcmYguqw6Kw87iUow37UNBwG_vKFyI9_k0QWVT6dXpSSMYpts6Ui-KOv__LGb_ybFWH0dHGR_KA_WNNWZyoH8IDbwiGhUATlBS8qTwS7MDrON0E7K2MJCxCHBcVQdmXFNrBvz0zi2kwCtaPUcLR9teA9h_lcj2ybyXjPfdY_KVPz_smz9XzNssQ5Qaw5sR6n1aTX-wNaONG7j3nIvaOXIArN1glV07JsXIOQYPkPHFnWWq0DMoqOBJHBcna922FE=s96-c | 6 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713057686215 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1718140145818}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718140145831}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime": 1718140145851}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718140145923}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "ai", "cars", "tesla"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720152586714 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dl0KtplznIGGy6pp5AOk | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066198} | 0 | will-joey-chestnut-compete-at-natha | 9781.732113916945 | Will Joey Chestnut compete at Nathan's hot dog eating contest in 2024? | 1720109750407 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718140629509 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reports suggest that 16-time winner Mr. Chestnut was banned for taking an endorsement deal with Impossible Foods.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/sports/16-time-winner-joey-chestnut-banned-2024-nathan-s-hot-dog-eating-contest-over", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/sports/16-time-winner-joey-chestnut-banned-2024-nathan-s-hot-dog-eating-contest-over", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Wp7_fYx8k.13?alt=media&token=1b8e6095-11fb-4681-9eb0-733d2a9ffc7f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve Yes if Chestnut competes at the July 4th annual Nathan's hot dog eating contest. Else it will resolve No. He must compete and win at least one hot dog, but needs not win.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02681818001259937, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.72360338301592, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720109750407 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720109750407 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720021585009 | 1720109721035 | 0.01 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | CHPtRg00U6Sj2kAm3gm6 | {"NO": 10.134040256068033, "YES": 986.7732658760874} | 0 | will-bitcoin-be-above-68000-usd-at | 1228.2260604510243 | Will bitcoin be above 68,000 usd at the end of June | 1719809940000 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718140632845 | Andrew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if bitcoin is above 68000 at the end of the month. Market resolves on June 30th at whatever time of day I open the app. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet on this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coindesk.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Coindesk.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as it's source ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04794929660296472, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.144181843549658, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719846454407 | 100 | AndrewCrosse | 1719809940000 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709841963600 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718140633010}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1718140633011}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1718140633007}] | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719801613675 | 1718140807420 | 0.01 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999994 | FVztDTrOy3BSetTT9PH6 | {"NO": 3809.0126359549627, "YES": 262.5352277807002} | 1 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-zer2ti2zv4 | 9360 | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Grants Pass, overturning precedent, in regards to homeless encampments? | 1719584763693 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.868686803221015 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718141154697 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SCOTUS is expected to rule \"this month\" (before the end of June) in the Grants Pass case. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/grants-pass-challenges-9th-circuit-ruling-on-camping-ban-before-supreme-court", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/politics/grants-pass-challenges-9th-circuit-ruling-on-camping-ban-before-supreme-court", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fig7Z8a6Rx-.21?alt=media&token=72e6efa5-bd53-42b2-bd03-738135664672", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ruling in favor of Grants Pass would overturn 9th circuit precent, allowing municipalities to evict homeless encampments without providing alternative housing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve Yes if the court rules in favor of Grants Pass. It will resolve No otherwise (any other ruling, no ruling, or no decision in 2024 -- but decision expected to be reached much sooner).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 127.15627109190095, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719584763693 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719584870963 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "Court cases", "slug": "court-cases", "groupId": "ilQEa8qtQ0UUcM8uTMkB", "createdTime": 1718141154867}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "createdTime": 1718141154869}] | ["court-cases", "supreme-court"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719583564460 | 1719584869592 | 0.94 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | i1J7wKOnhc4kIZMcyZg3 | {"NO": 193.37799001400384, "YES": 51.7121933022255} | 0.7890074885802201 | will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-clyjw4vpy8 | 353 | Will the US existing home median sales price be at least $413,800 USD for June 2024? | 1720238340000 | OPBtogfMc4XqtIltNzSGck6y3Cx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718141478566 | Jonathan Mann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve based on June 2024 data (usually released in the month after, but it is often late) from ycharts (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") when it becomes available (probably around July 18th). If the results are not available from the specified source by August 5th, 2024, this question will resolve as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.6099015582880314, "week": 0.6099015582880314, "month": 0.2890074885802201} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.895975871714265, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 152 | 100 | JonathanMann | 1720221795506 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGqet__ZxQQEFkGGhvNQAdMw9j0AMIeJOQr6uE=s96-c | 6 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645560509584 | 0 | [{"name": "Real Estate", "slug": "real-estate", "groupId": "JCSx09py8PNgRaE9gc2u", "createdTime": 1718141478709}] | ["real-estate"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720221792352 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | JoFZRX9HrTXpqSdHgSG5 | {"NO": 556.3271308789122, "YES": 1797.5035630927327} | 0.23634967982349447 | will-gpt5-be-able-to-gm-a-session-o | 2299.2158202040337 | Will GPT-5 be able to GM a session of my custom TTRPG to my satisfaction? | 1767254340000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.612363193423338 | False | basic | public | 1718141801073 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been working on a \"for fun\" side project TTRPG to play with my friends. The RPG is rules-light, narrative-driven, and explicitly non-crunchy. Currently, there are only about ~15-20 pages of text.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "When GPT-5 releases, I will attempt to have it GM a session for my playgroup after feeding it the most up-to-date PDF of the rules. I will do my best to give GPT-5 every chance to succeed with prompting and provide it with a detailed and thorough setup.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The session runs well with no obvious errors or mistakes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- GPT-5 actually understands and executes the rules as written. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The session does not feel lame or derivative. Scenes and encounters should not be clearly pulled directly from the rules document. Creativity and uniqueness in the world are essential, and I will prompt for these aspects initially.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- GPT-5 makes use of relevant rules when appropriate. For example, omitting to use the correct combat rules during combat would result in a fail.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The above conditions are not met. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- GPT-5 does not release by the market close date. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "My players will handle all dice rolling, so GPT-5 does not need to handle dice. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The ruleset is not quite ready for release; I will post it here if it reaches a stage I am happy with.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The ruleset is a fairly heavily modified variant of a PBTA system, using a standard 2d6 system.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Currently GPT-4o fails incredibly hard at this task. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- This market resolves by the intent of the question over any specific language in the description. I will update the language and increase clarity and specificity if needed.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2636503201765055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.76940115194534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SneakySly | 1719156376308 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644809847148 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId": "3eb479df-003d-47a2-8ba4-a41e637176da", "createdTime": 1718141801251}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718141801252}] | ["gpt5", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719156373248 | 1718997166673 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TY5ZgatD6N8QVajot0Um | who-will-the-san-francisco-mayoral | 322 | Who will win the San Francisco Mayoral Election in 2024? | 1730869140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718141834064 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of May 2024 polling by GrowSF, this is a tight race between Mayor Breed, Mark Farrell, Aaron Peskin and Daniel Lurie, with Ahsha Safai also as a viable candidate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-may-2024-mayor/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-may-2024-mayor/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F64Wxym1I5B.31?alt=media&token=f4b25474-b462-481d-b1ed-1c6e13f3c813", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FidGhxon5SJ.31?alt=media&token=291e3eb6-5de6-42d9-aa2f-8e84568b5c00", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The election will take place in November 2024. 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Phus8NHlkuTBWsqHnpVp | which-quarter-will-the-nintendo-san | 104 | Which quarter will Nintendo San Francisco open? | 1893484740000 | d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718141992463 | Bence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo announced plans to open a store in San Francisco in 2025: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nintendo.com/us/whatsnew/nintendo-announces-plans-for-official-store-in-san-francisco/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nintendo.com/us/whatsnew/nintendo-announces-plans-for-official-store-in-san-francisco/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any store operated by Nintendo within San Francisco counts for resolution, including if the name or location is changed from what the press release said.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is any announcement from Nintendo that their plans to open this store are canceled, or the store is is not open by 2030 January 1st, this market resolves \"does not open\", even if they do end up opening a store eventually. 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slsBoeVuXEsa3NDweHHR | where-will-nintendo-expand-its-phys | 409 | Where will Nintendo expand its physical stores next? | 1893484740000 | d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718143304235 | Bence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo has recently announced a store opening in San Francisco: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nintendo.com/us/whatsnew/nintendo-announces-plans-for-official-store-in-san-francisco/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nintendo.com/us/whatsnew/nintendo-announces-plans-for-official-store-in-san-francisco/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stores have been open or announced in the following locations when this market opened: Kyoto, Osaka, Tokyo, San Francisco, New York City. 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0.5000000000000018 | Rvz8B3wumgZJ8Nj5eyXh | {"NO": 994.9874371066198, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-nathans | 2047.798604275535 | Will the winner of the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest eat more than 50 hot dogs? | 1720137365599 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718147327392 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nathan's Coney Island Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - 51+", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO - 50 and under", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not occur, canceled resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.44804847536814496, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.934760805848974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720137365599 | 100 | Predictor | 1720137365599 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718147327548}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718147327550}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718147327569}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1718147327573}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1718147327632}] | ["entertainment", "culture-default", "science-default", "united-states", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720137043596 | 0.99 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3865745611840788 | 6qSDHpqU8H2i8r2ZvMts | {"NO": 7204.96058507318, "YES": 16651.43628560174} | 0.2142557981974131 | will-media-coverage-about-manifest | 21643.953652761396 | Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups? | 1735718340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.954269795988048 | False | plus | public | 1718147843458 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last year, we had a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYT article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that led to thousands of signups for Manifold. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if there is an article, blog post, video, podcast, TikTok, or other form of online or print media that directly results in 500 or more signups for Manifold in 2024. Estimating signups is more of an art than a science. I will use my best judgment in cases of ambiguity.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.28574420180258686} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 517.5369637302463, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SG | 1719549786692 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1718147843592}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1718147843611}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719549783322 | 1718564315301 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14000000000000004 | 0fVmzBDbjIAzUj0Z8A7l | {"NO": 1009.4347180723737, "YES": 943.9477792036782} | 0.1482724745446268 | will-nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-ali | 10 | Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888513794005988 | False | public | 1718148453195 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uqTJ7mQqRpPejqbfN/nobody-s-on-the-ball-on-agi-alignment", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00827247454462679} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5652819276262651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718173707385 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718148453379}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718173704118 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3194353076818291 | L6wVzmSJO9MOwJkMGPoE | {"NO": 9328.70822573922, "YES": 10428.250546564781} | 0.2957143482192511 | polymarket-national-rally-coalition | 18920.269539452063 | [Polymarket] National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election? | 1719730740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.207920808620492 | False | plus | public | 1718148476341 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CNN", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe/macron-dissolves-french-parliament-europe-intl/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After initial projections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Renaissance, which scraped into second place on 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In a celebratory speech after the publication of the exit poll, RN leader Jordan Bardella had called on Macron to dissolve the French parliament, calling the gap between the two parties a “stinging disavowal” for the president.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is a clone of a question on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Polymarket", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/national-rally-coalition-wins-a-majority-of-seats-in-french-election/national-rally-coalition-wins-a-majority-of-seats-in-french-election?tid=1718148092617", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the first stage on June 30th.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qVbRGXkeaB0CgkB7Hjot", "label": "/Ziddletwix/polymarket-which-party-will-win-the-rkn3t1qdg2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "label": "/Ziddletwix/how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Check out the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2024 French Legislative Elections dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/french-elections", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.055714348219250864, "month": -0.20428565178074892} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 361.95789537964185, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ziddletwix | 1719877387044 | 0 | 34 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718148476493}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1718148476492}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1718148476491}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1718148476497}] | ["politics-default", "world-default", "geopolitics", "france"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699992052 | 1719877385300 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 50wvVEqjZDSJhYFtdtB7 | {"NO": 56.258620630519275, "YES": 177.75053650311483} | 0 | will-tetraspace-be-at-deepfates-off | 314.36439049380095 | Will Tetraspace be at deepfates office hours today? | 1718237501140 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718156064262 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.885073003084257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718237501140 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1718237501140 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "Tetraspace", "slug": "tetraspace", "groupId": "SpOYh2aGkJtKCq37OO9p", "createdTime": 1718156064419}] | ["tetraspace"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718217361604 | 1718161557528 | 0.24 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": -0.09533294154887337}, {"id": "xke1d9zohe", "prob": 0.3206440128673594, "text": "Two months, last bet on or before Aug 11", "index": 5, "poolNo": 14.023526615851907, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.71197460385436, "textFts": "'11':9 'aug':8 'bet':4 'last':3 'month':2 'two':1", "contractId": "XcOpsa6BTwNsUlQSTtYz", "createdTime": 1718158779706, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.1972934199854972, "month": 0.1609460371360722}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.1972934199854972, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0.1609460371360722}, {"id": "29m9zvxihl", "prob": 0.6326190039874051, "text": "Three or more months", "index": 6, "poolNo": 26.785956089225877, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.555415131672762, "textFts": "'month':4 'three':1", "contractId": 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0.5000000000000001 | VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn | {"NO": 578.5146679432805, "YES": 1728.5646421985962} | 0.2507562984073158 | will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi | 23859.00443614311 | Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024? | 1725256740000 | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61313085180909 | False | basic | public | 1718159543627 | Mark Bowen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close whenever GRRM or his publisher announces the completion of Winds of Winter, or September 2024, whichever comes first.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.0007562984073152257, "month": -0.24924370159268422} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 316.3881039455313, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarkBowen | 1720025010396 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | 75 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707625075147 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718159543777}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718159543784}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f9771ff", "createdTime": 1718159543789}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718159543803}] | ["culture-default", "books", "game-of-thrones", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025007054 | 1718217007813 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mu3MpZJ0C56wHXoG616M | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-stephen-hsu-or-razib-khan-beco | 0 | Will Stephen Hsu OR razib Khan become sperm donor by 2027 | 1798779540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718160539887 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718160539887 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | KJ00h3sjKYb9i2BQXSfS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jsuarez-pufferfish-rl-environm | 0 | Will @jsuarez pufferfish RL environment be used to calculate friston free energy OR complexity/accuracy/surprise by 2028 | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718160750872 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718160856279 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | xURTJKNKUmYXuIm6vsGX | {"NO": 305.133511051292, "YES": 3277.253935677706} | 0.0851760217421214 | will-any-notable-scientist-or-publi | 6782.4216247607765 | Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027? | 1830326340000 | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.242208718596984 | False | basic | public | 1718161201373 | John David Pressman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though the brain takes in billions of bits per second in raw information through the ocular nerves, touch, etc, there is a serial embedding bottleneck that constrains the retained information to a much smaller amount. The conscious mind probably runs at about 3-4 tokens per second, some numbers to help justify this claim:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Various studies of memory retention find the brain has a serial embedding bottleneck of about 40-60 bits per second (source: Silicon Dreams: Information, Man, Machine, by Robert Lucky), which if we assume a roughly LLM sized token dictionary would be somewhere in the realm of 3-4 tokens a second", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- \"A typical speaking rate for English is 4 syllables per second.\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_tempo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_tempo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Humans have a reaction time ranging from around 1/4 to 1/3 of a second, or an implied action-token production rate of 3-4 per second", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This implies that a human trains on about 1.6 billion tokens during their lifetime:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">>> 60 * 60 * 16 * 365 * 79", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1,660,896,000", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "While from a raw parameter count perspective a human brain is something on the order of 89 trillion parameters (89 billion bioneurons with 1000 synapse each) it is vastly undertrained according to data scaling rules. Relatively small models like LLaMa 3 70B get close to the linguistic complexity of a human being with a brain the size of a mouse. This implies that the human mind pattern is much more compressible than previously believed. The existence of GPT itself implies that a human mind pattern, or at least substantial and productive fractions of a human mind pattern can be learned from textual evidence alone. Scaling language models also improves their internal alignment with human neural representations: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arxiv.org/html/2312.00575v1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/html/2312.00575v1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The practical outcome of this is that while \"grief bots\" that mimic the dead are currently a novelty, as AI researchers get over chatbots and look towards the larger potential of these systems we will begin to realize that a high fidelity simulacrum of a productive researcher or intellectual can multiply that researchers productivity. Furthermore the digital copies can continue to work after their biological death. This question concerns that scenario.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It resolves YES if before the end of 2027 there is any published paper or major editorial credited in whole or in part to an AI simulacrum of a deceased author and this is generally accepted as an addition to that authors corpus. \"General acceptance\" means it's listed on things like bibliographies for that author or the editorial appears under their name without qualifications or excuses for quality.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be notable, the scientist or public intellectual must have one of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. An established Wikipedia article", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. Twitter account or similar with over 10k followers", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. Held a professorship, endowed chair, fellowship, etc at a major university or industrial research laboratory[0].", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4. A prestigious award or recognition in their field, such as a Nobel Prize, Fields Medal, Turing Award, or equivalent[1].", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5. 90th percentile h-index for their field or subdomain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Their paper must be published in either a peer reviewed journal, conference communication, or commonly accepted venue for established knowledge in that field or discourse. If it is an editorial it must be published in a major newspaper or functional equivalent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no such paper or editorial exists by the closing date it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CLARIFICATION/UPDATE: I won't resolve it YES if the inclusion is clearly a joke, since that wouldn't be \"general acceptance\", by which I mean that the people immediately involved in the publication consider it an extension of that persons work. 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0.5000000000000002 | dZHsuC6C52R3OL0Zt644 | {"NO": 1733.573885442835, "YES": 576.8430226119575} | 0.7503294662530763 | will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-1gyw9jvwqw | 770 | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 11th July show positive growth? | 1720684800000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.617955096257795 | False | basic | public | 1718172821633 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 11th July.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (May in this case).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this reading show positive growth?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ajDaklXBYYy7RJ14ZtAH", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-dda37e8acd22"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "WiKLrJRjS9oo5ZHF6Ri1", "label": "/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-cce5768c424d"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xtDpkjVwO9a0ExWFAOrD", "label": "/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.010924250372852717, "week": 0.02248107868933613, "month": 0.2503294662530763} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.846716463153474, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720186949450 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1718172821775}, {"name": "UK economic data", "slug": "uk-economic-data", "groupId": "47c6155e-4d90-4eb0-abec-d85d0f741002", "createdTime": 1718172821777}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718172821781}, {"name": "GDP", "slug": "gdp", "groupId": "iwQCyAKU6dXiXgXR6dw6", "createdTime": 1718172821785}] | ["uk", "uk-economic-data", "economics-default", "gdp"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720186946371 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | BJmoSlApTGPcScEqjeFW | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-marcel-hirscher-be-on-any-worl | 50 | Will Marcel Hirscher (NL/AT) be on any World Cup podium in the 2024/2025 ski season? | 1746050340000 | 108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1718180452702 | Marnix Vreugdenhil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve 'YES' if Austrian-Dutch skier Marcel Hirscher (now competing for the Netherlands) will get at least one podium placement (meaning 1st, 2nd or 3rd) in the World Cup 2024/2025 ski season. Will resolve N/A if he does not compete in the World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The placement must be noted on the official FIS website:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/athlete-biography.html?sectorcode=AL&competitorid=106332&type=result", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/athlete-biography.html?sectorcode=AL&competitorid=106332&type=result", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarnixVreugdenhil | 1718616839034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703774351876 | 0 | [{"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1718180452850}, {"name": "World Cup Skiing", "slug": "world-cup-skiing", "groupId": "88f83402-bcc4-4e6c-a723-195325a765d8", "createdTime": 1718180452857}, {"name": "🎿 skiing", "slug": "-skiing", "groupId": "fb705cdf-74c2-4f13-b3d3-26db4fe91e61", "createdTime": 1718180452858}, {"name": "Austria", "slug": "austria", "groupId": "fxKeBbD3cWK6v7jLqwSk", "createdTime": 1718180452861}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1718208191041}] | ["the-netherlands", "world-cup-skiing", "-skiing", "austria", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718180492842 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8v2lO3SK2Ge6BkrSoaoa | {"NO": 12.118181322937858, "YES": 825.2063352997989} | 0 | will-i-promote-to-diamond-league-th | 1071.8319268642117 | Will I promote to 💎 Diamond league 💎 this month? | 1719867540000 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718180957222 | CyfralCoot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently I'm at Platinum rank 5 (at market creation). If I stay there, I would be promoted. If I fall down to 6th place, I would not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Planning to stay active and competitive!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet on this market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5516843603731918, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.316106627876973, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719889344265 | 100 | CyfralCoot | 1719867540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | 13 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709980441447 | 0 | [{"name": "Diamond League", "slug": "diamond-league", "groupId": "a2deceab-60af-4f0d-9140-a29d0e6cdf33", "createdTime": 1718180957416}, {"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1718180957415}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1718468621928}] | ["diamond-league", "manifold-leagues", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719857100907 | 1719765834780 | 0.01 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | Ox0hJxUj91r391iIhjug | {"NO": 1050.503650215511, "YES": 951.924345807699} | 0.5246149436093555 | will-at-least-3-manifold-bots-adver | 150 | Will at least 3 Manifold bots advertise their performance on
manifold-baseline-curated before the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570710228641817 | False | basic | public | 1718187038526 | John David Pressman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[manifold-baseline-curated](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/jdpressman/manifold-baseline-curated-v0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/jdpressman/manifold-baseline-curated-v0", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is a dataset I've made to make it easier to tune a model on Manifold questions without training on difficult to resolve, personal, or meta/joke/luck markets. There is currently substantial interest in LLM based forecasting bots and this dataset should help people get started if they want to try tuning local models. However another purpose I have in making it is to help provide absolute standards to measure forecasting bots against instead of the anti-inductive relative standard of actual in practice market performance (since even a slightly better bot will eat the alpha that a slightly worse bot would have).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Towards that end I would like to see people start to publish the performance that their bot gets on the validation and test split of manifold-baseline-curated. The question then is simple: Will at least three Manifold bot teams advertise their performance on manifold-baseline-curated or a successor dataset[0] before the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves YES if three separate bot teams advertise or otherwise disclose their performance on the validation and test sets of manifold-baseline-curated or a successor dataset. If three separate bot teams don't exist by the end of 2024 the question resolves NO, if three don't publish it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not be betting in this market. Instead I will effect it by making manifold-baseline-curated better in response to community criticism.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[0]: A dataset is a successor dataset if it is called \"manifold-baseline-curated\", published by myself, and intended to supercede use of the previous iteration of manifold-baseline-curated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[1]: The teams do not need to publish their performance on the same iteration of manifold-baseline-curated if multiple iterations exist.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.024614943609355455} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.030517399086628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JohnDavidPressman | 1718264367999 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717581521302 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1718187038696}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718187038695}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1718187038697}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1718187038714}] | ["metaforecasting", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "trading-bots"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718264364834 | 1718245639792 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I've added a bunch of metrics, including some I suspect are absolutely awful. Help me out by pricing them and adding your own!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All questions or items that aren't included in a vetting process, explicitly or implicitly, resolve NO, including if there isn't a party for whatever reason.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meta answers like \"[Manifest doesn't happen]\" are welcome but should be placed in brackets to distinguish them, due to likely differences in resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specific clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Age restrictions are exclusive: if I use any, the others resolve NO. It'll count even if I give out individual exceptions", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Celebrity\": the famous person pass", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Chain of Trust\": invitees would need to have a sponsor at the party who is responsible for them if they misbehave, and who would get ejected if they were. Contrast somewhat to \"Referral\" and \"+1\"s", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Comfortable Taboos\": something along the lines of \"Which classic social taboos are you comfortable being around in a party context?\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "[Politics/ Religion/ Sex/ Drugs/ Gambling/ etc.]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Referral\": knowing somebody else at the party or in my social circle", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Sponsorship of party\": supplying some funds, venue, or such to the party. (NB: even if this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "would", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " resolve YES given the chance, it will resolve NO if no one is a sponsor or the only sponsors were already invited)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"+1\"s: attached to someone else who gets a solid invite", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date may change as the next Manifest approaches or when I decide what I'll do. 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0.5000000000000003 | Mnzianwar0tx6INCiCvA | {"NO": 1258.9453752700422, "YES": 794.3156388222964} | 0.6131443428913349 | will-the-winner-of-the-arc-kaggle-c | 4067.314339837218 | Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks | 1730761140000 | 7yDNUPDeSsR9TFqJMOJmoiscQdP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578584694517358 | False | basic | public | 1718191155553 | Jan Dissel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any team on the leaderboard of the ARC Kaggle Challenge solve at least 50% of the tasks by the end of the contest without being disqualified?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Challenge Overview:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ARC is hosting a Kaggle Challenge with a grand prize of $1,000,000 for solving more than 85% of the problems.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Current Performance:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The best model on the ARC prize website currently achieves a 34% success rate, while human performance is around 85%.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " This market resolves to YES if, by the end of the contest, any team on the leaderboard that has not been disqualified solves at least 50% of the tasks. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more information, visit:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARC Prize", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arcprize.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kaggle Challenge Overview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024/overview", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.058864874552994495, "month": 0.1131443428913349} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.68878738290637, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JanDissel | 1719654560350 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbiN7TxlftwX9LYCAa20RC-CFvk_ZP8ra4aSVjU=s96-c | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680168008109 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718191155693}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719654557235 | 1718723370802 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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