p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-6zoqpex4oz | 3568.9138505833525 | What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 14th, 2024? | 1718337540000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718194954452 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. If the answer is ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A by the next regular post day based on the possible consensus there.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.220048239888534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718424889937 | 1100 | EBurk | 1718337540000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "yzkouadi97", "prob": 0.76, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 255.69405408675502, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.81477448975718, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2621082734889775, "month": 0.2621082734889775}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2621082734889775, "resolutionTime": 1718424849622, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.2621082734889775, "resolutionProbability": 0.76}, {"id": "73l8lklfzx", "prob": 0.54, "text": "Cueball will make an appearance", "index": 1, "poolNo": 155.81608029127077, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 130.97597646633565, "textFts": "'appear':5 'cuebal':1 'make':3", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.04330681976650719, "month": 0.04330681976650719}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.04330681976650719, "resolutionTime": 1718424855000, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.04330681976650719, "resolutionProbability": 0.54}, {"id": "sm8uqnxg82", "prob": 0.37, "text": "The comic won't have any stick figures at all", "index": 2, "poolNo": 109.14238550189175, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 186.98659710853047, "textFts": "'comic':2 'figur':8 'stick':7 'won':3", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.13143632703633074, "month": -0.13143632703633074}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.13143632703633074, "resolutionTime": 1718424859103, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.13143632703633074, "resolutionProbability": 0.37}, {"id": "jt5jxgfyvz", "prob": 0.3, "text": "The comic will be a graph/chart", "index": 3, "poolNo": 93.94465254256544, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 217.23602901250155, "textFts": "'comic':2 'graph/chart':6", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.19810255548932315, "month": -0.19810255548932315}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.19810255548932315, "resolutionTime": 1718424862028, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.19810255548932315, "resolutionProbability": 0.3}, {"id": "tn3nxh3s4u", "prob": 0.28, "text": "The comic will be space-related", "index": 4, "poolNo": 88.05191165116379, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 231.7742213951852, "textFts": "'comic':2 'relat':7 'space':6 'space-rel':5", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.22468818975964244, "month": -0.22468818975964244}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.22468818975964244, "resolutionTime": 1718424864041, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.22468818975964244, "resolutionProbability": 0.28}, {"id": "qsd77tuyol", "prob": 0.21, "text": "Megan will make an appearance", "index": 5, "poolNo": 73.1972891277465, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 278.8103700082264, "textFts": "'appear':5 'make':3 'megan':1", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.2920576804850943, "month": -0.2920576804850943}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.2920576804850943, "resolutionTime": 1718424867832, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.2920576804850943, "resolutionProbability": 0.21}, {"id": "nhbjzk3imq", "prob": 0.23, "text": "The comic will include all of the letters of \"Biden\" or all of the letters of \"Trump\", but not both", "index": 6, "poolNo": 77.41710899588871, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 263.6130892770735, "textFts": "'biden':10 'comic':2 'includ':4 'letter':8,15 'trump':17", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718194954453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.2729904583584012, "month": -0.2729904583584012}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.2729904583584012, "resolutionTime": 1718424889937, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.2729904583584012, "resolutionProbability": 0.23}, {"id": "wbw1mpm8jb", "prob": 0.96, "text": "The comic will be entirely in black and white", "index": 7, "poolNo": 469.37187198633353, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.30506874577079, "textFts": "'black':7 'comic':2 'entir':5 'white':9", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718210471565, "probChanges": {"day": 0.010339592823522148, "week": 0.4565802527545252, "month": 0.4565802527545252}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.010339592823522148, "probChangeWeek": 0.4565802527545252, "resolutionTime": 1718424846710, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.4565802527545252, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706489499554 | 0 | [{"name": "Webcomics", "slug": "webcomics", "groupId": "tO2lKFZZPUkSUzf064Rp", "createdTime": 1718194954950}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718194954962}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1718194954959}, {"name": "xkcd", "slug": "xkcd", "groupId": "58b9cbb3-0e8d-4c8b-be77-7430c96a2d3c", "createdTime": 1718194954963}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718194954967}] | ["webcomics", "space", "mathematics", "xkcd", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1718298637663 | 1718376289222 | 0.23 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | {"NO": 1358.407085435661, "YES": 736.1563486539728} | 0.6485394824177624 | will-gpt4opus-report-50-score-on-ar | 19606.05615968982 | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | 1735689540000 | 5VT4z1iFyBd6zo6mLfQI6LaiT2K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.584960190055185 | False | basic | public | 1718195177074 | Lonis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "intelligence ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "as opposed to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " memorization. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "https://arcprize.org/arc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arcprize.org/arc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of GPT4 or Claude Opus solving at least 50% of the ARC questions in 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.008304242935450734, "month": 0.14853948241776238} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 379.6668351841119, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lonis | 1719883837009 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYd_cPk-H_3aSUEwTf8A5matx18W-OfU4W2z0CJUw=s96-c | 48 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677290778332 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718195177293}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1718195177302}] | ["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719883833915 | 1719163257997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB | who-will-lose-the-1m-buyin-high-rol | 5453.5868271143 | Who will lose the $1M buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament? (4th place) | 1719675115687 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1718197898430 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high?r=QmlzaG9wRw", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 74.59526923940211, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719675115687 | 1000 | BishopG | 1719675234044 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 12 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cc9o9lgbpm", "prob": 0.1711011645865022, "text": "Fabiano Caruana", "index": 0, "poolNo": 113.58362544909735, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 550.2553713431998, "textFts": "'caruana':2 'fabiano':1", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1718197898430, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0791153372611942, "month": -0.028898835413497803}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0791153372611942, "resolutionTime": 1719675115687, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.028898835413497803}, {"id": "7bmv0abmlm", "prob": 0.2491363136449318, "text": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov", "index": 1, "poolNo": 144.00513382298124, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 434.0123045670596, "textFts": "'abdusattorov':2 'nodirbek':1", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1718197898430, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.15271713725824915, "month": 0.04913631364493179}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.15271713725824915, "resolutionTime": 1719675115687, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.04913631364493179}, {"id": "t0gf1oj75p", "prob": 0.2600000000000006, "text": "Ian Nepomniachtchi", "index": 2, "poolNo": 148.18724459095455, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 421.76369614348465, "textFts": "'ian':1 'nepomniachtchi':2", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1718197898430, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.15946989801482894, "month": 0.06000000000000061}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.15946989801482894, "resolutionTime": 1719675115687, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.06000000000000061}, {"id": "ztgygkhz5h", "prob": 0.1502901374719744, "text": "Hans Niemann", "index": 3, "poolNo": 105.14047142705105, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 594.4428358718548, "textFts": "'han':1 'niemann':2", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1718197898430, "probChanges": {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.540536988719899, "month": -0.04970986252802562}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.540536988719899, "resolutionTime": 1719675115687, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.04970986252802562}, {"id": "4dcz97j9mg", "prob": 0.169472384296591, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 112.93080908396819, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 553.4362191058856, "textFts": "", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1718197898430, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.14923461618562667, "month": -0.030527615703409006}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.14923461618562667, "resolutionTime": 1719675115687, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.030527615703409006}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718197898588}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 1719570408940 | 1719675232821 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY | which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil | 7970.731463982202 | Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050? | 2553541140000 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718199551409 | JuJumper | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Significant Adoption", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Operational Efficiency", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Regulatory Approval", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Economic Viability", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Independent Verification", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.8495070132086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 2700 | JuJumper | 1720246126203 | 0 | 40 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "13se6uxyn6", "prob": 0.55828829388086, "text": "Commercial fusion power", "index": 0, "poolNo": 281.0605003390531, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.37205130071322, "textFts": "'commerci':1 'fusion':2 'power':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.11426021809387221, "month": 0.05828829388085999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.11426021809387221, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.05828829388085999}, {"id": "e1wfujtkub", "prob": 0.8215208023234577, "text": "Regenerative Medicine", "index": 1, "poolNo": 536.3588966074736, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 116.52645345368387, "textFts": "'medicin':2 'regen':1", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.02741787961800135, "month": 0.3215208023234577}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.02741787961800135, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.3215208023234577}, {"id": "w28evrfipi", "prob": 0.7362139363417759, "text": "Solar panels with 40% efficiency", "index": 2, "poolNo": 417.65347788984764, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 149.64558733181156, "textFts": "'40':4 'effici':5 'panel':2 'solar':1", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.051236626108731254, "month": 0.2362139363417759}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.051236626108731254, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.2362139363417759}, {"id": "mcl6ihz1k6", "prob": 0.9577845493714616, "text": "Gene Editing Therapies", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1190.7983038111645, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.48579864446229, "textFts": "'edit':2 'gene':1 'therapi':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.45418798459691134}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.45418798459691134}, {"id": "qya98tot01", "prob": 0.6642372497143844, "text": "Quantum Computing Applications", "index": 4, "poolNo": 351.62955029135156, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 177.74387831800283, "textFts": "'applic':3 'comput':2 'quantum':1", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.16423724971438436}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.16423724971438436}, {"id": "81a99wh1kz", "prob": 0.5950940012402334, "text": "Lunar Bases", "index": 5, "poolNo": 303.0788909723169, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 206.21693513359452, "textFts": "'base':2 'lunar':1", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.09509400124023337}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.09509400124023337}, {"id": "bjtw73nabh", "prob": 0.923322741467097, "text": "Brain-Computer Interfaces", "index": 6, "poolNo": 867.5279711255099, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.04378657545067, "textFts": "'brain':2 'brain-comput':1 'comput':3 'interfac':4", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4145372505312649}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.4145372505312649}, {"id": "6ggjujks7u", "prob": 0.8892234232676985, "text": "Bioprinting", "index": 7, "poolNo": 708.3069212840061, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.23858432260016, "textFts": "'bioprint':1", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718199551410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.38922342326769854}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.38922342326769854}, {"id": "hhjc3s77bp", "prob": 0.4, "text": "Commercial asteroid mining", "index": 8, "poolNo": 81.64965809277263, "userId": "8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 122.47448713915891, "textFts": "'asteroid':2 'commerci':1 'mine':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718888606111, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09999999999999998}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.09999999999999998}, {"id": "gw6rpw6dre", "prob": 0.1230213531353073, "text": "Human Mind Uploading", "index": 9, "poolNo": 37.45378734027235, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 266.9956954993296, "textFts": "'human':1 'mind':2 'upload':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719098706802, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.05147356655949564, "month": -0.37697864686469273}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.05147356655949564, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.37697864686469273}, {"id": "phn3vt2pgo", "prob": 0.1314758022763337, "text": "Commercial cold fusion", "index": 10, "poolNo": 38.90737702436665, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 257.02066715361644, "textFts": "'cold':2 'commerci':1 'fusion':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719187312360, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3685241977236663}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.3685241977236663}, {"id": "i963wybl1h", "prob": 0.07159043258794046, "text": "Time travel to the future", "index": 11, "poolNo": 27.76883690133218, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 360.1159110672098, "textFts": "'futur':5 'time':1 'travel':2", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719236731647, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0014461373517376946, "month": -0.42840956741205954}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0014461373517376946, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.42840956741205954}, {"id": "gdp8r2e6ql", "prob": 0.04339670181742539, "text": "Time travel to the past", "index": 12, "poolNo": 21.29915750278462, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 469.50213869692374, "textFts": "'past':5 'time':1 'travel':2", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719236741196, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.005753425529594014, "month": -0.4566032981825746}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.005753425529594014, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.4566032981825746}, {"id": "hifoo1k132", "prob": 0.914257043891724, "text": "Human-level AGI", "index": 13, "poolNo": 326.5389044561191, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.624222301033086, "textFts": "'agi':4 'human':2 'human-level':1 'level':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719393216215, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.414257043891724}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.414257043891724}, {"id": "dlv5vvij5r", "prob": 0.45394643477052427, "text": "Space-to-Earth power stations", "index": 14, "poolNo": 91.17687042103996, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 109.67693839261675, "textFts": "'earth':4 'power':5 'space':2 'space-to-earth':1 'station':6", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1719521714667, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.046053565229475735}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.046053565229475735}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645481677749 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718199551588}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1718199551591}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718199551600}] | ["science-default", "futurism", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1720246123108 | 1719315822667 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | UNwdKvxOSLPbs05X0gUO | {"NO": 1574.4671527924852, "YES": 635.1355112276532} | 0.7125566865166194 | will-a-spacecraft-made-by-humans-la | 731 | Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050? | 2524607940000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.602612109039882 | False | basic | public | 1718200444709 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same way as the corresponding ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Metaculus question", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23750/will-a-spacecraft-land-on-jupiter-by-2050/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "credible sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " report that a spacecraft built by humans has successfully landed on any of Jupiter's moons before January 1, 2050. Otherwise, it resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Fine Print", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, \"successfully landed\" will be defined as:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The lander remains intact and able to communicate with the Earth", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The landing does not prevent at least some of the lander's payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as Yes. (This does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as time capsules might survive impact.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any landers must land before January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 7, 2050, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2125566865166194} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.73516819918442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1718263331477 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | [{"name": "NASA", "slug": "nasa", "groupId": "c6d9ce56-6640-455b-96db-3c3293d41f0f", "createdTime": 1718200445484}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1718200445483}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718200445485}] | ["nasa", "metaculus", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718263328012 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | CLihWjKFHEoAjyZeWwaL | {"NO": 646.234600172678, "YES": 15.474256558420166} | 1 | will-biden-lead-in-the-538-election | 2262.8007628221817 | Will Biden lead in the 538 election forecast on June 30th? | 1719806340000 | WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718200788805 | Hillary Clinton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whoever has a higher chance of winning.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes=Biden", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No=Trump", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.7861456502065817, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.56746927643496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719834953581 | 100 | HillaryClinton | 1719806340000 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713377673183 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718200789371}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718200789373}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718200789377}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718200789378}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719803941071 | 1719834919518 | 0.98 | WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 4JXzfPSwBYh9Y1Nbkgpi | {"NO": 1956.1763209821079, "YES": 511.20136220539945} | 0.7928159253086061 | will-the-2024-iphone-pro-have-hapti | 1395.5531461460898 | Will the 2024 iPhone Pro have haptic/solid state buttons? | 1735718340000 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641612764461389 | False | basic | public | 1718201419015 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if any of the buttons (power, volume up/down, action button) are haptic or solid state (don’t use traditional switch mechanisms)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2928159253086061} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.659203537010256, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | case | 1718316114595 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1718201419735}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1718201419761}] | ["apple", "iphone"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718316111442 | 1718207546811 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | r1Tl3oUU2Ak7cp0rA8bd | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | how-unusable-will-my-lenovo-laptop | 50 | How unusable will my Lenovo laptop be by EOY 2025? | 1767214740000 | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1718201633532 | AhmedButCooler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lenovo IdeaPad Flex 5", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://psref.lenovo.com/syspool/Sys/PDF/IdeaPad/IdeaPad_Flex_5_14ITL05/IdeaPad_Flex_5_14ITL05_Spec.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " be unusable on Dec 31, 2025 or require a repair by then? For the market to resolve 100% YES, the computer must fail to boot up while plugged in and fully charged. A partial resolution will occur if something happens which highly hinders my use of the computer. I will avoid betting in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Partial Resolutions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If my computer has [...], then the market will resolve at a minimum of [...]:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "an unusable touchpad - 40%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "at least two keys that don't work - 40%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "battery life <30m - 40%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "unusable touchscreen functionality - 40%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "two/three/four of the above issues - 64%/78%/87% respectively", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "frequent crashes - 90%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "very slow performance - 80%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "high difficulty of usage due to any other cause - 50%", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful Information (6/12/2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Model Name Lenovo IdeaPad Flex 5 14ITL05", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Purchased May 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Processor 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1135G7 @ 2.40GHz 2.42 GHz", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Installed RAM\t16 GB ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "System type 64-bit operating system, x64-based processor", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I use it an average of ~8h per day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I transport it around in a laptop bag frequently between school and home.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will give an update in Jan 2025 about the status of the computer. This is the only update I will give.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to ask questions about the laptop or its usage until August 2024. I will stop answering questions after that.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AhmedButCooler | 1718217876037 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714851175704 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718201634836}, {"name": "Computer hardware", "slug": "computer-hardware", "groupId": "33399837-c917-4655-bfe5-61341a014587", "createdTime": 1718201634873}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1718201960261}] | ["technology-default", "computer-hardware", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718207732908 | 1718201651590 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF | how-high-will-bitcoin-go-by-the-end | 2797.5101528363525 | How high will Bitcoin go by the end of 2025? | 1767329940000 | DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.472685014153061 | False | basic | public | 1718202245501 | Percentage | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers will resolve yes if any major bitcoin exchange price reaches the listed amount for any amount of time (not counting bugs / incorrect values). All remaining answers will resolve NO at the end of 2025. New answers will be added as needed. All prices are in US dollars.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.38947928190011, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5000 | percentage | 1720091778693 | 0 | 15 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "djs3k9798g", "prob": 0.703742007728562, "text": "$80,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 874.5606405844263, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 368.16841492159415, "textFts": "'000':2 '80':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.203742007728562}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.203742007728562}, {"id": "oyf5hakkp9", "prob": 0.48833729623824085, "text": "$100,000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 763.6729138023725, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 800.1497138877437, "textFts": "'000':2 '100':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.006187909032085048, "month": -0.012294818355055914}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.006187909032085048, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.012294818355055914}, {"id": "g5rdi4rik5", "prob": 0.26034640668110354, "text": "$150,000", "index": 2, "poolNo": 324.65111634994537, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 922.3456080857724, "textFts": "'000':2 '150':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -0.23965359331889646}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": 2.220446049250313e-16, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.23965359331889646}, {"id": "c1qmq69hlx", "prob": 0.12005773953064532, "text": "$200,000", "index": 3, "poolNo": 138.54185224708124, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1015.418340479334, "textFts": "'000':2 '200':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": 6.938893903907228e-17, "week": 6.938893903907228e-17, "month": -0.3799422604693547}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 6.938893903907228e-17, "probChangeWeek": 6.938893903907228e-17, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.3799422604693547}, {"id": "goh7lld9n4", "prob": 0.1011414631198951, "text": "$250,000", "index": 4, "poolNo": 118.0951422381394, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1049.5282892930722, "textFts": "'000':2 '250':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": -6.938893903907228e-17, "week": -6.938893903907228e-17, "month": -0.3988585368801049}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -6.938893903907228e-17, "probChangeWeek": -6.938893903907228e-17, "totalLiquidity": 20.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.3988585368801049}, {"id": "upebbk5bi9", "prob": 0.09002931485666453, "text": "$500,000", "index": 5, "poolNo": 87.98533849605998, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 889.3112080359361, "textFts": "'000':2 '500':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718244134156, "probChanges": {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.40997068514333546}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.40997068514333546}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690864212456 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718202246307}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1718202246308}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1718202246309}] | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 1720091775289 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | bMvr53Xp3QrgpgnLytsn | {"NO": 284.7946522449799, "YES": 3511.301887578284} | 0.075023026747955 | will-grrm-announce-winds-of-winter | 3622.2984390170104 | Will GRRM announce Winds of Winter as being finished in August 2024? | 1725231540000 | 26X1LELdEdRTu4bQodxTOME4UBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.831472188634752 | False | basic | public | 1718203795907 | Johann Goode | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Book doesn’t have to be released in August, but either an announcement of having finished writing the book or a publication date chosen by end of August. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Personally, I think GRRM will announce the publication at / shortly after WorldCon.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.424976973252045} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.16677871582931, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JohannGoode | 1719367751803 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdgRijy1I1H4vGkUj_RQomx24zqFkyaFMI9OBacjVrROQ=s96-c | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690659190472 | 0 | [{"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f9771ff", "createdTime": 1718203798268}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718203798267}] | ["game-of-thrones", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719367748710 | 1718460335706 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | rL7zbuVJFI8La0aS9JT8 | {"NO": 945.5885352550431, "YES": 1057.5424327985115} | 0.4720552726384504 | will-russia-rejoin-g7g8-before-eoy | 495.59342064127964 | Will Russia rejoin G7/G8 before EOY 2050? | 2556140340000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570819335245663 | False | basic | public | 1718206672113 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political and economic forum currently consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russia joined in 1997, but its membership lasted only until 2014.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will not be affected by any name changes or the addition or removal of other members. If the G7 ceases to exist without a replacement by 2051, this question resolves to NO. If there is an official or unofficial replacement for the G7, it will be treated as the G7 for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if Russia is added at any point in time before 2051. Otherwise, it resolves to NO on January 1, 2051, at 00:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.027944727361549626} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.429540413606873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lion | 1719282087883 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | [{"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1718206672491}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1718206672496}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1718206672498}] | ["geopolitics", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719282084725 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does | 1322 | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | 1718209468017 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.280789547682108 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1718208698188 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My toddler is 3.5 years old. He likes trains.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will conduct a battery of tests to evaluate his moral reasoning abilities. If he fails I will not be disappointed in him, only disappointed in myself.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will livestream this for benefit of the degens who want to live trade it. DM me to know the day/time in advance. The market close time is just a placeholder.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.6233185281194, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718209468017 | 10000 | MichaelWheatley | 1718210325140 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4376m4iucu", "prob": 0.37451381768408243, "text": "0: Rejects the premises of the hypothetical", "index": 0, "poolNo": 639.5016000497609, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1068.0498168894305, "textFts": "'0':1 'hypothet':7 'premis':4 'reject':2", "contractId": "GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718208698188, "probChanges": {"day": 0.1490897465765364, "week": 0.1490897465765364, "month": 0.1490897465765364}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.1490897465765364, "probChangeWeek": 0.1490897465765364, "resolutionTime": 1718209468017, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.1490897465765364}, {"id": "ilvvxpb5ho", "prob": 0.19028380647763618, "text": "1: Does not pull the lever", "index": 1, "poolNo": 318.70218020337626, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1356.1759195304176, "textFts": "'1':1 'lever':6 'pull':4", "contractId": "GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718208698188, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0023366027432897563, "week": -0.0023366027432897563, "month": -0.0023366027432897563}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0023366027432897563, "probChangeWeek": -0.0023366027432897563, "resolutionTime": 1718209468017, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.0023366027432897563}, {"id": "bscl1ij4lo", "prob": 0.17535325216387282, "text": "2: Does not push the fat man", "index": 2, "poolNo": 286.29647964168765, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1346.3876942117581, "textFts": "'2':1 'fat':6 'man':7 'push':4", "contractId": "GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718208698188, "probChanges": {"day": -0.017529930218207646, "week": -0.017529930218207646, "month": -0.017529930218207646}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.017529930218207646, "probChangeWeek": -0.017529930218207646, "resolutionTime": 1718209468017, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.017529930218207646}, {"id": "n2w10wvto9", "prob": 0.12140688733183119, "text": "3: Does not transfer the organs", "index": 3, "poolNo": 211.63905557477653, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1531.5821094347616, "textFts": "'3':1 'organ':6 'transfer':4", "contractId": "GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718208698188, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07366515376002503, "week": -0.07366515376002503, "month": -0.07366515376002503}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.07366515376002503, "probChangeWeek": -0.07366515376002503, "resolutionTime": 1718209468017, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.07366515376002503}, {"id": "j2zshiod3o", "prob": 0.1384422363425775, "text": "4: Full Utilitarianism", "index": 4, "poolNo": 221.87271607421826, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1380.7647588448572, "textFts": "'4':1 'full':2 'utilitarian':3", "contractId": "GHO3XXnvjyjsh5blyifc", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718208698188, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05555805985501433, "week": -0.05555805985501433, "month": -0.05555805985501433}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05555805985501433, "probChangeWeek": -0.05555805985501433, "resolutionTime": 1718209468017, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.05555805985501433}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | [{"name": "Children", "slug": "children", "groupId": "M3DL9ICA4BGx11x5YnPi", "createdTime": 1718208698369}, {"name": "Trolley Problem", "slug": "trolley-problem", "groupId": "b5f0e613-f3de-412a-9b0b-1c2a4ad2c53d", "createdTime": 1718208698354}] | ["children", "trolley-problem"] | 0.25 | 1718209425042 | 1718210323076 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c | toddler-trolley-problem-where-does-l9nbomo9lw | 170094.09538098166 | Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line? | 1719155415538 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.81076597132909 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1718209865090 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My toddler is 3.5 years old. He likes trains.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will conduct a battery of tests to evaluate his moral reasoning abilities. If he fails I will not be disappointed in him, only disappointed in myself.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will livestream this for benefit of the degens who want to live trade it. DM me to know the day/time in advance. The market close time is just a placeholder.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For context: the three stages of the traditional Trolley Problem are:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Six people are standing on a trolley track, do you pull a lever to divert the trolley to aa second track where only one person is standing?", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Six people are standing on a trolley track, do you push a fat man onto the tracks to stop it before it can hit them?", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Six people are fatally ill with different illnesses, do you kill a seventh, healthy person and transfer their organs to the other six people to save their lives.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've added a step 0 (stops a trolley when it costs you nothing to do so, which i will run first as a warm-up, but will not count towards the all/none options)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to modify these exact hypotheticals for ease of execution and comprehension, while keeping the gist roughly the same. For instance, I may reduce the ratio from 1:6 to more like 1:4", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "MORE FINE PRINT:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My rule about trading in my own markets when there's some discretion in the resolution judgment is that I allow myself to trade, but commit to owning zero shares of any answers sensitive to personal judgement at resolution time.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1470.7770047220586, "platformFee": 454.0333392588747, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719155415538 | 16000 | MichaelWheatley | 1719159528916 | 0 | 80 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "22w3s5h3hi", "prob": 0.88, "text": "1 - Pulls the lever", "color": "#8bc34a", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2903.5357152019856, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 388.4705935113706, "textFts": "'1':1 'lever':4 'pull':2", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": 0.24139842096039832, "week": 0.2512194043822481, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.24139842096039832, "probChangeWeek": 0.2512194043822481, "resolutionTime": 1719155409309, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.88}, {"id": "d5a4d1736o", "prob": 0.03, "text": "2 - Pushes the fat man", "index": 1, "poolNo": 220.6925504242845, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6675.7347066424045, "textFts": "'2':1 'fat':4 'man':5 'push':2", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": -0.545674330761281, "week": -0.5176197243510153, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.545674330761281, "probChangeWeek": -0.5176197243510153, "resolutionTime": 1719155413347, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "ntsd1r7jn3", "prob": 0.99, "text": "3 - Transfers the organs", "color": "#ff9800", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7989.814388672403, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.55107425513596, "textFts": "'3':1 'organ':4 'transfer':2", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": 0.6306569482682216, "week": 0.637389060335862, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.6306569482682216, "probChangeWeek": 0.637389060335862, "resolutionTime": 1719155400063, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "ahiyl95whc", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Full Deontology (does none of the above)", "color": "#4caf50", "index": 3, "poolNo": 105.32667727851734, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5312.410269878253, "textFts": "'deontolog':2 'full':1 'none':4", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": -0.23596068262044156, "week": -0.20905448781332986, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.23596068262044156, "probChangeWeek": -0.20905448781332986, "resolutionTime": 1719155389315, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "9kirizvhib", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Full Utilitarianism (does all of the above)", "color": "#ff5722", "index": 4, "poolNo": 104.24152201146342, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5853.7347610990555, "textFts": "'full':1 'utilitarian':2", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3186925076913434, "week": -0.2952813220828916, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.3186925076913434, "probChangeWeek": -0.2952813220828916, "resolutionTime": 1719155391457, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "rlv2bdm6ir", "prob": 0.05, "text": "PROP BET - Rejects the premises of one or more hypotheticals", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 5, "poolNo": 193.34195698104764, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4002.548965140717, "textFts": "'bet':2 'hypothet':10 'one':7 'premis':5 'prop':1 'reject':3", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": -0.745696528849044, "week": -0.7329241577782581, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.745696528849044, "probChangeWeek": -0.7329241577782581, "resolutionTime": 1719155411463, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.05}, {"id": "ufhqs5g7g2", "prob": 0.98, "text": "PROP BET - Displays senseless bloodthirst (in any hypothetical, kills people for zero benefit)", "color": "#f44336", "index": 6, "poolNo": 5796.200266148176, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 139.21473310930614, "textFts": "'benefit':13 'bet':2 'bloodthirst':5 'display':3 'hypothet':8 'kill':9 'peopl':10 'prop':1 'senseless':4 'zero':12", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718209865090, "probChanges": {"day": 0.49365660314518034, "week": 0.4657467993017713, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.49365660314518034, "probChangeWeek": 0.4657467993017713, "resolutionTime": 1719155402100, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "v48i256nb8", "prob": 0.9, "text": "0 - Stops the trolley when all it takes is changing a signal to red", "index": 7, "poolNo": 4074.76334394089, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 431.10181807714986, "textFts": "'0':1 'chang':10 'red':14 'signal':12 'stop':2 'take':8 'trolley':4", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718211464544, "probChanges": {"day": 0.24141670091062384, "week": 0.24141670091062384, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.24141670091062384, "probChangeWeek": 0.24141670091062384, "resolutionTime": 1719155404473, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.9}, {"id": "ql9kzq0fbe", "prob": 0.01, "text": "PROP BET - Little sister gets loose and rips up the tracks", "color": "#607d8b", "index": 8, "poolNo": 116.27193147729737, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8600.527980351417, "textFts": "'bet':2 'get':5 'littl':3 'loos':6 'prop':1 'rip':8 'sister':4 'track':11", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718231972553, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04329591058905892, "week": -0.04329591058905892, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04329591058905892, "probChangeWeek": -0.04329591058905892, "resolutionTime": 1719155393336, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "ot28prhwn1", "prob": 0.88, "text": "Outcome inconsistent with any known moral theory.", "index": 9, "poolNo": 2768.914443403063, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 361.15236510196206, "textFts": "'inconsist':2 'known':5 'moral':6 'outcom':1 'theori':7", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718232722487, "probChanges": {"day": 0.31943343554433434, "week": 0.3383674663401173, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.31943343554433434, "probChangeWeek": 0.3383674663401173, "resolutionTime": 1719155407208, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.88}, {"id": "2p6uqm8yed", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics - On any question, avoids responsibility by saying he would close his eyes, look away, ignore the trolley, or something similar, but wouldn't do anything to stop the trolley.", "index": 10, "poolNo": 146.8653749038429, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6808.956846736192, "textFts": "'anyth':29 'avoid':8 'away':18 'close':14 'copenhagen':1 'ethic':4 'eye':16 'ignor':19 'interpret':2 'look':17 'question':7 'respons':9 'say':11 'similar':24 'someth':23 'stop':31 'trolley':21,33 'would':13 'wouldn':26", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1718483706325, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3494934863277672, "week": -0.3577418085281459, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.3494934863277672, "probChangeWeek": -0.3577418085281459, "resolutionTime": 1719155386525, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "5suiwtbo1f", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Pre Show prop Bet: Child passes the Marshmallow Test", "index": 11, "poolNo": 10023.304251615706, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.76749930930293, "textFts": "'bet':4 'child':5 'marshmallow':8 'pass':6 'pre':1 'prop':3 'show':2 'test':9", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 1719099398320, "probChanges": {"day": 0.5, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.5, "probChangeWeek": 0.5, "resolutionTime": 1719100091917, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "yrj7dfjuwo", "prob": 0.03, "text": "PROP BET: The camera gets knocked over", "index": 12, "poolNo": 161.36699622335115, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6197.054065602608, "textFts": "'bet':2 'camera':4 'get':5 'knock':6 'prop':1", "contractId": "GXzkarJCBaIrjzTp5h8c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "createdTime": 1719099913436, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.5, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1719155415538, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | [{"name": "Trolley Problem", "slug": "trolley-problem", "groupId": "b5f0e613-f3de-412a-9b0b-1c2a4ad2c53d", "createdTime": 1718209866015}, {"name": "Children", "slug": "children", "groupId": "M3DL9ICA4BGx11x5YnPi", "createdTime": 1718209866022}] | ["trolley-problem", "children"] | 0.25 | 1719146287079 | 1719159527015 | 0.03 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dmZKNYV30v9xiwePvzxp | {"NO": 68.59943405700353, "YES": 145.77379737113245} | 0.3200000000000002 | will-btc-be-higher-than-70k-on-july | 142.88210932868319 | Will BTC end July 12th, 2024 higher than $70K? | 1720843140000 | rMQCXUh977flkHRzhQ0nN5Shfii1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718210302483 | MatterAtoms | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17999999999999983} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.21973508112578, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MatterAtoms | 1718563286299 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXLVhqz8qys_PuwmnNzI16IR6yRvpbLYa5gJ6XfNxFZ2rXA3E0Jg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718120358951 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718210302702}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1718210302700}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1718210302823}] | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718563283229 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d | what-will-bidens-approval-rating-at | 7194.29724112011 | What will Biden's approval rating at 538 be on 6/30? | 1719859765459 | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718210873059 | Scott Supak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden's approval as it appears in the 538 POTUS approval data for 6/30/24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will check on 7/1/24 but will close as soon as the data is posted for that day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 109.60249324696174, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719859765459 | 1000 | ScottSupak | 1719859808778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c | 14 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cnbg187h4a", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Over 37", "index": 0, "poolNo": 689.5985438744657, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.594266760837627, "textFts": "'37':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.014243304730149231, "month": 0.4588507194132053}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.014243304730149231, "resolutionTime": 1719859696719, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.4588507194132053, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "yzn62duhbk", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Over 37.5", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1003.0563813407829, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.34597819718429, "textFts": "'37.5':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.48011927761592244}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719859709435, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0.48011927761592244, "resolutionProbability": 0.98}, {"id": "ygk1f7r7if", "prob": 0.13, "text": "Over 38", "index": 2, "poolNo": 54.284727364699265, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 375.94668438138564, "textFts": "'38':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08382435154052226, "week": -0.7868903507798249, "month": -0.3738243515405213}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08382435154052226, "probChangeWeek": -0.7868903507798249, "resolutionTime": 1719859745773, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.3738243515405213, "resolutionProbability": 0.13}, {"id": "6rwz6qvd0r", "prob": 0.06, "text": "Over 38.5", "index": 3, "poolNo": 35.78702406185505, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 570.2671233582369, "textFts": "'38.5':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.834200194429519, "month": -0.4409507810247705}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.834200194429519, "resolutionTime": 1719859751511, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.4409507810247705, "resolutionProbability": 0.06}, {"id": "hjxs9mx5xc", "prob": 0.07, "text": "Over 39", "index": 4, "poolNo": 38.65214122025141, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 527.9956716761003, "textFts": "'39':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.7449849688314611, "month": -0.43178806951943277}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.7449849688314611, "resolutionTime": 1719859755065, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.43178806951943277, "resolutionProbability": 0.07}, {"id": "i0dc3no8sh", "prob": 0.04, "text": "Over 39.5", "index": 5, "poolNo": 29.748104336302447, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 686.0323950256384, "textFts": "'39.5':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.569980159435661, "month": -0.4584396272840341}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.569980159435661, "resolutionTime": 1719859760421, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.4584396272840341, "resolutionProbability": 0.04}, {"id": "mnnaxex4hy", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Over 40", "index": 6, "poolNo": 24.898904971076952, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 819.6409958193994, "textFts": "'40':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "createdTime": 1718210873060, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.48731205395510047, "month": -0.4705177873209164}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.48731205395510047, "resolutionTime": 1719859765459, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": -0.4705177873209164, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675531545177 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718210874119}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718210874134}, {"name": "FiveThirtyEight", "slug": "fivethirtyeight", "groupId": "8DP8g4cqyxNkl3AgVjdB", "createdTime": 1718210874125}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718210874149}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1718210874150}] | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "fivethirtyeight", "politics-default", "polls"] | 0.25 | 1719821898566 | 1719859806795 | 0.03 | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | m2yJaBuSpB5uNoiFFE5n | {"NO": 114.23629036859317, "YES": 87.53785655796545} | 0.5661592037862645 | will-the-americans-mog-the-world-at | 150 | Will the Americans mog the world at cricket, within this decade? | 1893538740000 | W62cOwgsU8OV4RUU1E5aEUDGuoC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718210977522 | Arnav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Americans have begun to play cricket, will they dominate at the sport?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winning criteria: America reaches the final at one of the major cricket world cups (and not a \"world cup\" with only America in it lol)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0661592037862645} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.582053494519692, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ArnavBansal | 1719362540100 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYnnhiL4iPju7ktDd7f5KKeNy2wl6s4MNpxaWOG=s96-c | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678035586559 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1718210978373}, {"name": "Cricket World Cup 2023", "slug": "cricket-world-cup-2023", "groupId": "a5ce0972-a6ee-4342-aebe-8e4735eba14f", "createdTime": 1718210978378}, {"name": "Cricket", "slug": "cricket", "groupId": "LcPYoqxSRdeQMms4lR3g", "createdTime": 1718210978379}] | ["sports-default", "cricket-world-cup-2023", "cricket"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719362536927 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM | will-dragon-age-4-have-a-metacritic | 2113.008275017431 | Will Dragon Age 4 have a Metacritic metascore >X on the one-week anniversary of its release? | 1735707540000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718211031290 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve one week after the game's general release (not early access or preview periods for preorders). On that date, I will check the metascore on Metacritic--the one based on critic reviews, not user scores--and resolve each submarket accordingly. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the metascore must be above X to resolve the submarket as \"yes.\" If the metascore is 80, the the >80 market resolves \"no.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thanks to Ziddletwix for the structure, as this market is based on the one they are runnign for Deadpool & Wolverine: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a-a9223a54e544", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a-a9223a54e544", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.845091566944916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1718229386963 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8d9pt2beax", "prob": 0.9230686459509562, "text": ">50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 346.3899726639566, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.869195961689428, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.42306864595095617, "week": 0.42306864595095617, "month": 0.42306864595095617}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.42306864595095617, "probChangeWeek": 0.42306864595095617, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.42306864595095617}, {"id": "g2o1yzty3k", "prob": 0.8865572455757206, "text": ">55", "index": 1, "poolNo": 279.55354917503115, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.77132191492551, "textFts": "'55':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.34104096856413735, "week": 0.34104096856413735, "month": 0.34104096856413735}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.34104096856413735, "probChangeWeek": 0.34104096856413735, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.34104096856413735}, {"id": "0i9er1mueb", "prob": 0.8769726431076041, "text": ">60", "index": 2, "poolNo": 266.9882668012924, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.45482945676619, "textFts": "'60':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.3254952755465508, "week": 0.3254952755465508, "month": 0.3254952755465508}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.3254952755465508, "probChangeWeek": 0.3254952755465508, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.3254952755465508}, {"id": "cklrm7ft1v", "prob": 0.8721003596919498, "text": ">65", "index": 3, "poolNo": 261.12507110547847, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.29582489978764, "textFts": "'65':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.31751193529727184, "week": 0.31751193529727184, "month": 0.31751193529727184}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.31751193529727184, "probChangeWeek": 0.31751193529727184, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.31751193529727184}, {"id": "g9lfm3bid5", "prob": 0.8466372689480477, "text": ">70", "index": 4, "poolNo": 234.95720875428626, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.56094142852118, "textFts": "'70':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.27501790749634625, "week": 0.27501790749634625, "month": 0.27501790749634625}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.27501790749634625, "probChangeWeek": 0.27501790749634625, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.27501790749634625}, {"id": "zefju4t676", "prob": 0.7963679103437087, "text": ">75", "index": 5, "poolNo": 197.75786597244678, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.56688870921208, "textFts": "'75':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.1883873757544411, "week": 0.1883873757544411, "month": 0.1883873757544411}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.1883873757544411, "probChangeWeek": 0.1883873757544411, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.1883873757544411}, {"id": "mud4pg9v90", "prob": 0.7963679103437087, "text": ">80", "index": 6, "poolNo": 197.75786597244678, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.56688870921208, "textFts": "'80':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bdyj20qnci", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": ">85", "index": 7, "poolNo": 83.76501977404413, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 119.38157511303605, "textFts": "'85':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08766220117740475, "week": -0.08766220117740475, "month": -0.08766220117740475}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08766220117740475, "probChangeWeek": -0.08766220117740475, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740475}, {"id": "nus0ddgsls", "prob": 0.2036320896562912, "text": ">90", "index": 8, "poolNo": 50.56688870921208, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 197.75786597244678, "textFts": "'90':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18838737575444114, "week": -0.18838737575444114, "month": -0.18838737575444114}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.18838737575444114, "probChangeWeek": -0.18838737575444114, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.18838737575444114}, {"id": "az7wnagcbk", "prob": 0.1406603966602769, "text": ">95", "index": 9, "poolNo": 40.45791572038766, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 247.1704194826023, "textFts": "'95':1", "contractId": "WJK9LuXyk31ksBAEJIoM", "createdTime": 1718211031290, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2963679103437088, "week": -0.2963679103437088, "month": -0.2963679103437088}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2963679103437088, "probChangeWeek": -0.2963679103437088, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.2963679103437088}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | [{"name": "Metacritic", "slug": "metacritic", "groupId": "e657c1b9-f8c5-40b8-aa27-858c85409a23", "createdTime": 1718211031823}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718211031802}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718211031803}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718211031801}] | ["metacritic", "entertainment", "gaming", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1718229383886 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc | will-any-large-company-leave-califo | 1104.2103598908286 | Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025) | 1767254340000 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718211395746 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the first qualifying option in this list:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Completely leave\" if the company has no physical presence in California. No employees, land(leases allowed), or company registration. If California argues for nexus, it still counts as long as the company intended to separate.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves employees elsewhere\" if any employees move outside California to do work prohibited by SB-1047. Example: Relocating the pretraining team to Oregon. Starting a new team could count too, if the location is chosen for the purpose of avoiding AI regulation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves model training or inference elsewhere\" if compute clusters in California are avoided in preference of clusters elsewhere.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Nothing will happen\" if SB-1047 is not passed by end of 2025 or is passed and repealed with no other qualifying event having been posted.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SB-1047 must be identified as the cause in an announcement, communication by any executive, or by a journalist in communication with the company. Market creator reserves the right to accept other sources or reject a source. (Example: Jeff Bezos tweeting a mention of a company moving training to Virginia because of SB-1047 would count, but Alex Jones on Infowars interpreting evidences may be excluded at creator's discretion) An indirect phrase like \"California's AI regulations\" may be accepted if there's no other major AI regulation or if the source has expressed negativity toward SB-1047 elsewhere. An indirect phrasing with unresolved ambiguity will resolve 50%(so 50% \"Nothing will happen\" and 50% whatever other option would apply).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"large company\" is either a public company or one with a reported valuation greater than $1 billion with at least $50 million in liquidity. Valuation can be common stock, preferred stock, or anything else as long as it's reported to have qualifying numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a lower option occurs, this market will remain open in case a higher option occurs. Example: If OpenAI states they will not train GPT-5 on any California servers, then it's still possible they could relocate employees or leave California entirely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a subsidiary is created or a company is split off, this may resolve \"Completely leave\" if the purpose is legal separation from California. It's unlikely the company would state \"because of SB-1047\" because this would give California a reason to argue nexus, so it will need to be paired with other evidence like data center or pretraining employees moving to the new company. In all other cases, regulations must be explicitly mentioned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An announcement is sufficient. If an announcement is made and later withdrawn, it will still count as long as it was an official company announcement. Example: Elon Musk threatening to leave California because of SB-1047 would count as evidence if any event actually happens; but if not it won't count unless ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or Tesla make a press release or company announcement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo-6merj77vy5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-the-un"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.061671521062475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mira | 1718282038341 | 0 | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "xh3a9nqc9k", "prob": 0.06315926666346319, "text": "Completely leave", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.95403784992837, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1111.792449396547, "textFts": "'complet':1 'leav':2", "contractId": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "createdTime": 1718211395746, "probChanges": {"day": -0.16911269283777042, "week": -0.16911269283777042, "month": -0.16911269283777042}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.16911269283777042, "probChangeWeek": -0.16911269283777042, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.16911269283777042}, {"id": "fkkn07cz7z", "prob": 0.06884232214445203, "text": "Move employees elsewhere", "index": 1, "poolNo": 78.49202225241318, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1061.6790208991115, "textFts": "'elsewher':3 'employe':2 'move':1", "contractId": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "createdTime": 1718211395746, "probChanges": {"day": -0.16107240839840142, "week": -0.16107240839840142, "month": -0.16107240839840142}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.16107240839840142, "probChangeWeek": -0.16107240839840142, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.16107240839840142}, {"id": "hpucjuahct", "prob": 0.09661048812890098, "text": "Move model training or inference elsewhere", "index": 2, "poolNo": 94.40260813933976, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 882.7439726064754, "textFts": "'elsewher':6 'infer':5 'model':2 'move':1 'train':3", "contractId": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "createdTime": 1718211395746, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12098538074019244, "week": -0.12098538074019244, "month": -0.12098538074019244}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12098538074019244, "probChangeWeek": -0.12098538074019244, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.12098538074019244}, {"id": "syzhj910ii", "prob": 0.7713879230631837, "text": "Nothing will happen", "index": 3, "poolNo": 530.268965024651, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 157.15295223709632, "textFts": "'happen':3 'noth':1", "contractId": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "createdTime": 1718211395746, "probChanges": {"day": 0.45117048197636467, "week": 0.45117048197636467, "month": 0.45117048197636467}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.45117048197636467, "probChangeWeek": 0.45117048197636467, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.45117048197636467}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "California Politics", "slug": "california-politics", "groupId": "kS3bCFO3rT9nloxlfeBp", "createdTime": 1718211396588}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1718211396598}] | ["california-politics", "california"] | 0.25 | 1718282035071 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU | will-any-large-company-leave-califo-6merj77vy5 | 857.0528713336756 | Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025) | 1767254340000 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718211768172 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the first qualifying option in this list:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Completely leave\" if the company has no physical presence in California. No employees, land(leases allowed), or company registration. If California argues for nexus, it still counts as long as the company intended to separate.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves employees elsewhere\" if any employees move outside California to do work prohibited by any AI regulation. Example: Relocating the pretraining team to Oregon. Starting a new team could count too, if the location is chosen for the purpose of avoiding AI regulation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves model training or inference elsewhere\" if compute clusters in California are avoided in preference of clusters elsewhere.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Nothing will happen\" if no qualifying event occurs by end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any specific AI regulation or \"California AI regulation\" in general must be identified as the cause in an announcement, communication by any executive, or by a journalist in communication with the company. Market creator reserves the right to accept other sources or reject a source. (Example: Jeff Bezos tweeting a mention of a company moving training to Virginia because of SB-1047 would count, but Alex Jones on Infowars interpreting evidences may be excluded at creator's discretion)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"large company\" is either a public company or one with a reported valuation greater than $1 billion with at least $50 million in liquidity. Valuation can be common stock, preferred stock, or anything else as long as it's reported to have qualifying numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a lower option occurs, this market will remain open in case a higher option occurs. Example: If OpenAI states they will not train GPT-5 on any California servers, then it's still possible they could relocate employees or leave California entirely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a subsidiary is created or a company is split off, this may resolve \"Completely leave\" if the purpose is legal separation from California. It's unlikely the company would state \"because of California AI regulations\" because this would give California a reason to argue nexus, so it will need to be paired with other evidence like data center or pretraining employees moving to the new company. In all other cases, regulations must be explicitly mentioned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An announcement is sufficient. If an announcement is made and later withdrawn, it will still count as long as it was an official company announcement. Example: Elon Musk threatening to leave California because of SB-1047 would count as evidence if any event actually happens; but if not it won't count unless ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or Tesla make a press release or company announcement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Qualifying events should be posted in the comments. Market creator may do a cursory search or follow AI news, but responsibility is on traders to post evidence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo-6merj77vy5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-the-un"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.363597331551823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mira | 1718270662033 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "38wen5mux5", "prob": 0.07655028024227843, "text": "Completely leave", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.11437482606183, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1002.6344240419281, "textFts": "'complet':1 'leav':2", "contractId": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "createdTime": 1718211768172, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17091930172848604, "week": -0.17091930172848604, "month": -0.17091930172848604}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17091930172848604, "probChangeWeek": -0.17091930172848604, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.17091930172848604}, {"id": "ntdgymgdhd", "prob": 0.09009051550526409, "text": "Move employees elsewhere", "index": 1, "poolNo": 90.83428813709334, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 917.4215490912527, "textFts": "'elsewher':3 'employe':2 'move':1", "contractId": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "createdTime": 1718211768172, "probChanges": {"day": -0.15674663615142584, "week": -0.15674663615142584, "month": -0.15674663615142584}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.15674663615142584, "probChangeWeek": -0.15674663615142584, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.15674663615142584}, {"id": "6uekvzwoop", "prob": 0.11488300502435056, "text": "Move model training or inference elsewhere", "index": 2, "poolNo": 104.00086002167171, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 801.2754251836789, "textFts": "'elsewher':6 'infer':5 'model':2 'move':1 'train':3", "contractId": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "createdTime": 1718211768172, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13074269347727457, "week": -0.13074269347727457, "month": -0.13074269347727457}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13074269347727457, "probChangeWeek": -0.13074269347727457, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.13074269347727457}, {"id": "53wmrp7ewo", "prob": 0.7184761992281069, "text": "Nothing will happen", "index": 3, "poolNo": 461.16677563404795, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 180.70107764975089, "textFts": "'happen':3 'noth':1", "contractId": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "createdTime": 1718211768172, "probChanges": {"day": 0.45840863135718646, "week": 0.45840863135718646, "month": 0.45840863135718646}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.45840863135718646, "probChangeWeek": 0.45840863135718646, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.45840863135718646}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "California Politics", "slug": "california-politics", "groupId": "kS3bCFO3rT9nloxlfeBp", "createdTime": 1718211768415}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1718211768428}] | ["california-politics", "california"] | 0.25 | 1718270658285 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg | will-any-large-company-leave-the-un | 1721.0749809600786 | Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025) | 1767254340000 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718211960359 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the first qualifying option in this list:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Completely leave\" if the company has no physical presence in the USA. No employees, land(leases allowed), or company registration. If the US government argues for nexus, it still counts as long as the company intended to separate.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves employees elsewhere\" if any employees move outside the US to do work prohibited by any AI regulation. Example: Relocating the pretraining team to Oregon. Starting a new team could count too, if the location is chosen for the purpose of avoiding AI regulation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Moves model training or inference elsewhere\" if compute clusters in the USA are avoided in preference of clusters elsewhere.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Nothing will happen\" if no qualifying event occurs by end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any specific AI regulation or \"US AI regulation\" in general must be identified as the cause in an announcement, communication by any executive, or by a journalist in communication with the company. Market creator reserves the right to accept other sources or reject a source. (Example: Jeff Bezos tweeting a mention of a company moving training to Virginia because of SB-1047 would count, but Alex Jones on Infowars interpreting evidences may be excluded at creator's discretion)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"large company\" is either a public company or one with a reported valuation greater than $1 billion with at least $50 million in liquidity. Valuation can be common stock, preferred stock, or anything else as long as it's reported to have qualifying numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a lower option occurs, this market will remain open in case a higher option occurs. Example: If OpenAI states they will not train GPT-5 on any US servers, then it's still possible they could relocate employees or leave US entirely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a subsidiary is created or a company is split off, this may resolve \"Completely leave\" if the purpose is legal separation from the USA. It's unlikely the company would state \"because of US AI regulations\" because this would give the US government a reason to argue nexus, so it will need to be paired with other evidence like data center or pretraining employees moving to the new company. In all other cases, regulations must be explicitly mentioned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An announcement is sufficient. If an announcement is made and later withdrawn, it will still count as long as it was an official company announcement. Example: Elon Musk threatening to leave the US because of SB-1047 would count as evidence if any event actually happens; but if not it won't count unless ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or Tesla make a press release or company announcement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Qualifying events should be posted in the comments. Market creator may do a cursory search or follow AI news, but responsibility is on traders to post evidence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TuEtEHxKDrdrX1AYRZFc", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UlAY48na1KlqLntYPDWU", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-califo-6merj77vy5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "label": "/Mira/will-any-large-company-leave-the-un"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.50216691688496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mira | 1719775685387 | 0 | 11 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hehqb4wki2", "prob": 0.040053288040502746, "text": "Completely leave", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.96643897231639, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1413.2332693934052, "textFts": "'complet':1 'leav':2", "contractId": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "createdTime": 1718211960359, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20994671195949724}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.20994671195949724}, {"id": "0vc3lyhuo6", "prob": 0.051216047181377185, "text": "Move employees elsewhere", "index": 1, "poolNo": 67.07006698407837, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1242.481737093178, "textFts": "'elsewher':3 'employe':2 'move':1", "contractId": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "createdTime": 1718211960359, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.19878395281862282}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.19878395281862282}, {"id": "ejbwdyt0dh", "prob": 0.10873066477812009, "text": "Move model training or inference elsewhere", "index": 2, "poolNo": 100.82794512529571, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 826.490445974851, "textFts": "'elsewher':6 'infer':5 'model':2 'move':1 'train':3", "contractId": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "createdTime": 1718211960359, "probChanges": {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.14126933522187984}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.14126933522187984}, {"id": "qxokdwteou", "prob": 0.7999999999999999, "text": "Nothing will happen", "index": 3, "poolNo": 577.3502691896255, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.33756729740637, "textFts": "'happen':3 'noth':1", "contractId": "0oSN3QDXIfNDFRAfOfBg", "createdTime": 1718211960359, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08480292220025742, "week": 0.08480292220025742, "month": 0.5499999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08480292220025742, "probChangeWeek": 0.08480292220025742, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.5499999999999999}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "California Politics", "slug": "california-politics", "groupId": "kS3bCFO3rT9nloxlfeBp", "createdTime": 1718211960707}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1718211960714}] | ["california-politics", "california"] | 0.25 | 1719775682298 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | 7lBjZMGKyZG5Gi3Pn5rs | {"NO": 1055.739562685333, "YES": 716.628315272052} | 0.1934338258549801 | will-the-pearly-gates-make-the-top | 59 | Will "The Pearly Gates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863744024944943 | False | public | 1718214149896 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Pearly Gates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XD6BCyenoiy8329E8/the-pearly-gates", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.05343382585498008} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2604373146669765, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718220625006 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718214150065}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718220619612 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne | who-will-biden-nominate-to-be-the-n | 200 | Who will Biden nominate to be the next Commissioner of the FDIC? | 1718367036454 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | wtw3uwmdv9 | public | 1718214244315 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will Joe Biden nominate to be the next Commissioner of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No additional answers will be added. \"Other\" represents any potential nominee not explicitly listed. Leaks and announcements do not count. The market will resolve when the nomination is officially communicated to the U.S. Senate and the nominee is in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "congressional record", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22source%22%3A%22nominations%22%2C%22congress%22%3A118%7D", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " with a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "PN number", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.congress.gov/help/nominations", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The nominee does not need to be confirmed or voted on.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no appointment is made by June 30, 2024 11:59PM ET, then the market will be extended to close the last day of the following month, and so forth, until a nominee is official.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market creator will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden Is Poised to Pick Goldsmith Romero to Lead Overhaul at FDIC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/biden-poised-to-pick-goldsmith-romero-to-lead-overhaul-at-fdic", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CFTC’s Kristin Johnson a Leading Candidate to Be New FDIC Chair", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-24/cftc-s-kristin-johnson-a-leading-candidate-to-be-new-fdic-chair?embedded-checkout=true", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden administration financial regulators among names considered to run FDIC, sources say", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/politics/biden-administration-financial-regulators-fdic/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "US probe finds widespread sexual misconduct at FDIC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-probe-finds-widespread-sexual-misconduct-fdic-sources-say-2024-05-07/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9722239231012515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718367036454 | 100 | MauriceBransfield | 1718367036454 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "wtw3uwmdv9", "prob": 0.9386376901063573, "text": "Christy Goldsmith Romero", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.4546984832238, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.717245713172446, "textFts": "'christi':1 'goldsmith':2 'romero':3", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.7719710234396907, "month": 0.7719710234396907}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.7719710234396907, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": 0.7719710234396907}, {"id": "6hej6sjsap", "prob": 0.012272461978728529, "text": "Sandra Thompson", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.4924833664694006, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.6031441277973, "textFts": "'sandra':1 'thompson':2", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15439420468793813, "month": -0.15439420468793813}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15439420468793813, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.15439420468793813}, {"id": "4bpfyyi6dj", "prob": 0.012272461978728529, "text": "Kristin Johnson", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.4924833664694006, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.6031441277973, "textFts": "'johnson':2 'kristin':1", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15439420468793813, "month": -0.15439420468793813}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15439420468793813, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.15439420468793813}, {"id": "zsq9j7savx", "prob": 0.012272461978728529, "text": "Adrienne Harris", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.4924833664694006, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.6031441277973, "textFts": "'adrienn':1 'harri':2", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15439420468793813, "month": -0.15439420468793813}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15439420468793813, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.15439420468793813}, {"id": "3ab1q4bckj", "prob": 0.012272461978728529, "text": "Graham Steele", "index": 4, "poolNo": 2.4924833664694006, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.6031441277973, "textFts": "'graham':1 'steel':2", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15439420468793813, "month": -0.15439420468793813}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15439420468793813, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.15439420468793813}, {"id": "0i1hcraft6", "prob": 0.012272461978728529, "text": "Other", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.4924833664694006, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.6031441277973, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uQ8BcLodofdNVerNG1Ne", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718214244315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15439420468793813, "month": -0.15439420468793813}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15439420468793813, "resolutionTime": 1718367036454, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.15439420468793813}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "Banking", "slug": "banking", "groupId": "7fai1FgMBz3dZQXIO8ug", "createdTime": 1718214244590}, {"name": "US Senate", "slug": "us-senate", "groupId": "Scdb6UrBLNsi1zvLGSD5", "createdTime": 1718214244602}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718214244603}, {"name": "US Economy", "slug": "us-economy", "groupId": "36d1e8d5-2e36-481d-b3e0-42e53c37ecbb", "createdTime": 1718214244621}, {"name": "🏛 118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1718214244619}] | ["banking", "us-senate", "us-politics", "us-economy", "118th-congress"] | 0.25 | 1718246063747 | 1718366991670 | {"wtw3uwmdv9": 100} | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | tBGcZLmjl88GIfTj0zzm | {"NO": 918.4371795502119, "YES": 1088.8060961226897} | 0.4575614678506367 | will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-s | 8570.516051455172 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024? | 1725163140000 | yWKyDbMkNfSHZAIbK26aR58Nxji2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.52426080579339 | False | basic | public | 1718215729058 | Epistemic Hygiene | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criterion for “invasion” in this market is a military action involving the crossing of over into Lebanese territory of either:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " a. 5000 Israeli troops,", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " b. 7 battalions or", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " c. 2 brigades", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.12437369693687522, "week": -0.2277527560219353, "month": -0.04243853214936327} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 209.46319350874566, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 250 | 1000 | Epistemic_Hygiene | 1720195089074 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691529873345 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1718215729211}, {"name": "Hezbollah", "slug": "hezbollah", "groupId": "18a4998d-5bf1-4213-93c2-e94c7881f263", "createdTime": 1718215729215}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1718215729213}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1718215729218}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1718215729222}] | ["israel", "hezbollah", "middle-east", "wars", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720195086007 | 1720150196558 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | QH8XyTxB3PJGTofBjSCx | {"NO": 947.0589647556171, "YES": 1396.7304299005098} | 0.09940815612154326 | will-my-technooptimism-by-vitalik-b | 400 | Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.936138340631569 | False | public | 1718218122745 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kWoPxh9DeQhc7HJo5/my-techno-optimism-by-vitalik-buterin", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.040591843878456754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.269570099490323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718244218163 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718218123172}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718244214968 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | qi0jMEHGilHFa8bEY2Ur | {"NO": 999.9999999999994, "YES": 1000.0000000000005} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores | 6215.582560079891 | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026? | 1767340740000 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.141476472332762 | False | basic | public | 1718218441636 | Maxim Lott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2026, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 183.3625430902678, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaximLott | 1719490073957 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646147297259 | 0 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718218442112}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718218442113}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f9771ff", "createdTime": 1718218442128}] | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "books", "game-of-thrones"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719490070529 | 1719209843264 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | {"NO": 1732.050807568876, "YES": 577.3502691896264} | 0.7499999999999998 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | 3522.817847634407 | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | 1893571140000 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8048538043091726 | False | basic | public | 1718218487067 | Maxim Lott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2030, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2030.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.24999999999999978} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.25812625450098, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaximLott | 1718549989572 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646147297259 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718218487210}, {"name": "Literature", "slug": "literature", "groupId": "OYHDMa75MB69MmmJxG0g", "createdTime": 1718218487238}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718218487253}] | ["books", "literature", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718549986412 | 1718292305269 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8aOO5s7hpKufygHDIn5R | {"NO": 111.59511518636116, "YES": 8960.96570472662} | 0 | will-rfk-jr-participate-in-the-6272 | 12064.946267298195 | Will RFK Jr. Participate in the 6/27/2024 CNN presidential debate? | 1719553237330 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.855591000471058 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718218709409 | Maxim Lott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves yes if RFK Jr is on the CNN debate stage alongside either Biden or Trump, or both. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Here is a market about whether RFK Jr. will qualify for the debate, given CNN's official standards: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BishopG/will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BishopG/will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market is about whether he will actually be on that stage.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.365512385443495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719553237330 | 1000 | MaximLott | 1719553237330 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646147297259 | 0 | [{"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "groupId": "lzuhs9uc93209ES3QX5S", "createdTime": 1718218710065}] | ["robert-f-kennedy-jr"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719551527339 | 1719550016493 | 0.01 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8 | which-justices-will-cease-to-be-mem | 3612.087871293193 | Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2024? | 1735804740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718218799278 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES to every above-listed Justice who resigns, dies, or for any other reason officially ceases to be a member of the Supreme Court of the United States before the end of 2024 (otherwise resolving NO on 1 Jan 2025; if no Justice ceases to be a member, then all options resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are nine Justices, two of whom are in their 70s (Thomas, Alito), and one of whom (Sotomayor) is the subject of debate over whether she should resign to guarantee a successor with similar views.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Justices, in-order of time on the court, along with their ages (as of time of writing) and the party that appointed them:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarence Thomas (75, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "John Roberts (69, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Samuel Alito (74, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sonia Sotomayor (69, Democrat)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elena Kagan (64, Democrat)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Neil Gorsuch (56, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brett Kavanaugh (59, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amy Coney Barrett (52, Republican)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ketanji Brown Jackson (53, Democrat)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.14294988490139, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719960805947 | 0 | 21 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "lu1yi9fb7k", "prob": 0.08427043046272659, "text": "Clarence Thomas", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.70633072102179, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 366.2718174377246, "textFts": "'clarenc':1 'thoma':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4157295695372734}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4157295695372734}, {"id": "e8uzyk1css", "prob": 0.06934457602320532, "text": "John Roberts", "index": 1, "poolNo": 30.329781580388143, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 407.04806856666085, "textFts": "'john':1 'robert':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4306554239767947}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4306554239767947}, {"id": "gy9ijnakm5", "prob": 0.08842687361611903, "text": "Samuel Alito", "index": 2, "poolNo": 34.6061964714019, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 356.7476426526091, "textFts": "'alito':2 'samuel':1", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.411573126383881}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.411573126383881}, {"id": "3ioa6106ur", "prob": 0.14642555522038994, "text": "Sonia Sotomayor", "index": 3, "poolNo": 46.01985311627607, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 268.2685444725879, "textFts": "'sonia':1 'sotomayor':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3535744447796101}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.3535744447796101}, {"id": "vqx4jeo994", "prob": 0.08816858426378377, "text": "Elena Kagan", "index": 4, "poolNo": 34.55072371124712, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 357.3204172370738, "textFts": "'elena':1 'kagan':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41183141573621623}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.41183141573621623}, {"id": "rpmv4be01g", "prob": 0.06934457602320532, "text": "Neil Gorsuch", "index": 5, "poolNo": 30.329781580388143, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 407.04806856666085, "textFts": "'gorsuch':2 'neil':1", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4306554239767947}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4306554239767947}, {"id": "8xojms4fez", "prob": 0.05585271540139979, "text": "Brett Kavanaugh", "index": 6, "poolNo": 27.024630358906293, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 456.8306336991953, "textFts": "'brett':1 'kavanaugh':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4441472845986002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4441472845986002}, {"id": "xye7th0tw3", "prob": 0.03238273760001391, "text": "Amy Coney Barrett", "index": 7, "poolNo": 20.32649357763873, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 607.3688491913432, "textFts": "'ami':1 'barrett':3 'coney':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4676172623999861}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4676172623999861}, {"id": "1ltmh4jqmg", "prob": 0.04830863141600612, "text": "Ketanji Brown Jackson", "index": 8, "poolNo": 25.03351260368503, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 493.16606933252905, "textFts": "'brown':2 'jackson':3 'ketanji':1", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4675150554160029}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.4675150554160029}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718218799496}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1718218799494}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "createdTime": 1718218799593}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718218799598}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718218799590}] | ["law-order", "scotus", "supreme-court", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719960802762 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | UZ82jJfPdfDAZ56n0sgh | {"NO": 614.1795447853068, "YES": 1628.1883831698788} | 1 | will-my-partner-and-i-miss-our-flig | 8202.975810331916 | will my partner and I miss our flight? | 1718219905491 | p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60761151150082 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718218886381 | etirabys | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "we have been in the security line for 15 minutes and cleared 4 rows of waiting, there's about 1.2 row left, the gate is across the airport ( takes about five minutes of walking); boarding started just now. mostly made this market to bet with him.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 123.79234017356269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718219905491 | 1000 | etirabys | 1718219905491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdp4p7_Xvptf2I7YogZttWjv5q9MHYU76Qkau6wVnNzFg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692136527634 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718219578258 | 1718219099088 | 0.27 | p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oT3WPmkn5RW7NZcqSYJf | if-a-majority-of-civilians-from-a-c | 0 | If a majority of civilians from a country support an evil military policy, do you now consider them non-civilians? | 1720843140000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718219034158 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the extremely difficult proposition of telling the difference between civilians who did or didn't vote for the evil policy/government is not included here; you have to generalize as considering that electorate typically non-civlian or typically civilian given what most of them support.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtnEn-L1s6X.png?alt=media&token=3b59e040-18cd-406f-ae17-52d2b4580f8d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For a related Poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/if-a-majority-of-minors-in-a-countr", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Panfilo | 1718219495478 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1718219034801}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718219034803}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1718219034807}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1718219035076}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718219035078}] | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "politics-default", "wars", "geopolitics", "law-order"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QLrQ4qqxQNHaZgrXWgTl | if-a-majority-of-minors-in-a-countr | 0 | If a majority of minors in a country support an evil militant ideology, does it follow that they are non-innocents? | 1720843140000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718219440399 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this doesn't use a hard cutoff age of majority, just the idea that people might already espouse beliefs you find militantly evil, even at an age you might normally consider to be categorically \"innocent\". Then, we step back and ask whether you might consider the typical minor from a given country innocent or not given what most of them believe.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For a related Poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/if-a-majority-of-civilians-from-a-c", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Panfilo | 1718219519079 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | IhkhUaldypVIXsQ4Bzmy | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-if-interpretability-research-g | 0 | Will "If interpretability research goes well, it ma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718220412082 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If interpretability research goes well, it may get dangerous", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BinkknLBYxskMXuME/if-interpretability-research-goes-well-it-may-get-dangerous", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718235464004 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718220413249}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718235464004}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | vwS7bs4GioJt5H2FDrxC | {"NO": 828.8125539070284, "YES": 1206.5454309131692} | 0.4072072628443519 | will-there-be-a-d20-20-sided-dice-e | 475 | Will there be a d20 (20 sided dice) emoji by the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575814875241733 | False | basic | public | 1718220427347 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It was proposed and declined once before in 2017.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "> The proposal is declined, because one or more of the selection factors was not satisfactory. For example, the expected usage was not shown to be sufficiently high. Emoji that have been Declined are not eligible to be re-reviewed for two years.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09279273715564812} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.879102924577134, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718290888737 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1718220427588}, {"name": "Design", "slug": "design", "groupId": "07f15121-570e-4ebc-a88a-b95e420d9b04", "createdTime": 1718220427593}, {"name": "emoji", "slug": "emoji", "groupId": "ff6aafbb-76fc-49a5-b11d-16235a6eb029", "createdTime": 1718220427608}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718220427606}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1718220427615}] | ["internet", "design", "emoji", "gaming", "board-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718290885589 | 1718224561039 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Twyw0JCFW7VXfa4vl0d6 | {"NO": 546.1773266085831, "YES": 1830.9072004313498} | 0.22976773454863686 | will-the-us-government-take-control-mkt6la6v6x | 851 | Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030? | 1893484740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62803744485719 | False | basic | public | 1718220636945 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"US government\" includes ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "all branches", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_government_of_the_United_States#Executive_branch", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of federal and state government, including all ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "executive departments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_executive_departments", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"take control\" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. \"Control\" does not need to be complete but must be dominant. If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"major technologies\" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously \"major\" technologies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a majority of Anthropic's board of directors are officers of executive departments, and are there clearly in their capacity as US government officers, this would count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If credible sources report that major Anthropic CEO decisions are consistently being directed or (successfully) pressured toward government objectives, this would count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If credible sources report that an executive department (e.g. the NSA) has seized or directly copied Anthropic's technologies (e.g. recreated Claude), this would count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Forcibly shutting Anthropic down without at any point having formal authority internal to Anthropic would count, as shutting Anthropic down is an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exercise", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of such authority.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US government sending officers into Anthropic and directly seizing its major technologies would count. This would even count if it happens after the relevant major technologies were made openly available prior to the seizure.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that don't count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An FBI raid of Anthropic in an investigation on its own would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The independent creation AI systems by the US government that resembles Anthropic's systems would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anthropic independently choosing to work with any part of the US government would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US government using Anthropic's technologies under special contract or as a client would not count (access =/= managerial authority).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Anthropic open-sources a frontier model and thus the US government (along with everyone else) has access to it, this would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-the-us-government-take-control", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.27023226545136314} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.092799568650133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1718333938565 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1718220637115}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718220637131}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718220637180}, {"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1718220637214}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718220637130}] | ["ai-safety", "ai", "technology-default", "anthropic", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718333935524 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | n9vBIUV5IzjyvG3JRgrL | {"NO": 1664.1705305663138, "YES": 600.8999568449892} | 0.734710261696207 | will-an-llm-report-50-score-on-arc | 3170.0641194344867 | Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025? | 1767225540000 | 5VT4z1iFyBd6zo6mLfQI6LaiT2K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611068256817488 | False | basic | public | 1718221140845 | Lonis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "intelligence ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "as opposed to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " memorization. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "https://arcprize.org/arc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arcprize.org/arc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.135575994152218, "month": 0.234710261696207} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.220661705831134, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lonis | 1720098874554 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYd_cPk-H_3aSUEwTf8A5matx18W-OfU4W2z0CJUw=s96-c | 14 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677290778332 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718221141068}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1718221141081}] | ["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720098871453 | 1718814260405 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | {"NO": 108.36890235986526, "YES": 9227.739491900138} | 0 | will-levy-rozman-attain-a-gm-norm-a | 20399.78700102578 | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | 1718390006596 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.853922840097521 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718221448304 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He's been playing exceptionally well!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Rozman gets a GM norm out of the tournament, and NO if he does not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Norms are high-level performance benchmarks in tournaments that are part of the requirements to achieve the GM title. Each norm typically requires the player to perform at a GM level over a series of games against other titled players.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a dispute, I will resolve based on FIDE certification of the norm, but in the vast majority of cases I will resolve this market as soon as it is clear one way or another.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1800972026192199958"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 297.9889163400137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718390006596 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1718390824638 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718221448530}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718389968328 | 1718390823234 | 0.01 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kG6MWZFyXbJQv6Sxa9wt | {"NO": 29.0505413101537, "YES": 344.2276649249501} | 0.0778254417881998 | will-there-be-another-jimmy-carter | 248 | Will there be another Jimmy Carter rabbit incident exactly one day after the next presidential inauguration? | 1737878340000 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718221915047 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There must be an animal that the new president attacks or shoos away, does not have to be a rabbit. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.42217455821180017} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7723350750498867, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | nikki | 1718609215897 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | [{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1718221915220}] | ["jimmy-carter"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718609212847 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu | what-will-be-the-margin-in-the-co04 | 1109.5989775990276 | What will be the margin in the CO-04 House special election? (June 25th) | 1719709578867 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | vz1qxp3r3x | public | 1718222019720 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump + 19 congressional district. May wait until absolutely definitive if it's close.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.833027581775706, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719709578867 | 1000 | SemioticRivalry | 1719709578867 | 0 | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3nku19iusr", "prob": 0.016354761324387627, "text": "D win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.368222001883737, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1465.6090096160874, "textFts": "'d':1 'win':2", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0684573072765106}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.0684573072765106}, {"id": "95wldtgk1k", "prob": 0.01767749415972147, "text": "R+0 to R+5", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25.351536637350478, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1408.7621679574145, "textFts": "'+0':2 '+5':5 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06014841484391924}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.06014841484391924}, {"id": "xvypdy50yk", "prob": 0.02305962939729542, "text": "R+5 to R+10", "index": 2, "poolNo": 29.034417514332546, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1230.0672364670575, "textFts": "'+10':5 '+5':2 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03685084749472384}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.03685084749472384}, {"id": "msm7j8qgyf", "prob": 0.029351603151961725, "text": "R+10 to R+15", "index": 3, "poolNo": 32.86290315616063, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1086.7659970446184, "textFts": "'+10':2 '+15':5 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06898203820022114}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.06898203820022114}, {"id": "bzqshyegku", "prob": 0.027803856969383346, "text": "R+15 to R+20", "index": 4, "poolNo": 31.95924862328161, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1117.4945360970914, "textFts": "'+15':2 '+20':5 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.02523678157546913}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -5.551115123125783e-17, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.02523678157546913}, {"id": "vz1qxp3r3x", "prob": 0.8367537315070671, "text": "R+20 to R+25", "index": 5, "poolNo": 427.8565468814187, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.4725703617293, "textFts": "'+20':2 '+25':5 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011017891107602235}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.011017891107602235}, {"id": "mp3isk9rg7", "prob": 0.02508864176833945, "text": "R+25 to R+30", "index": 6, "poolNo": 30.31635573289907, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1178.053392332009, "textFts": "'+25':2 '+30':5 'r':1,4", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.001375442837896007}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.001375442837896007}, {"id": "0jd35luihf", "prob": 0.02391028172184384, "text": ">R+30", "index": 7, "poolNo": 29.57797665767282, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1207.4620968037416, "textFts": "'+30':2 'r':1", "contractId": "kmizLHLHJBPW4cBl3zeu", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1718222019720, "probChanges": {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.012106393419690567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "resolutionTime": 1719709578867, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.012106393419690567}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1718222019907}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718222019914}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718222019924}] | ["2024-us-election", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719709364498 | {"vz1qxp3r3x": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | UeP9u7hnQNG8bMzEuf12 | {"NO": 953.7161644383841, "YES": 1048.5299896210427} | 0.47632313464794845 | are-the-pronatalist-couple-good-par | 2391.5769536669027 | Are the pronatalist couple good parents? | 2968808340000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.181637201656058 | False | basic | public | 1718222810560 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Collinses received a profile in the Guardian: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/american-pronatalists-malcolm-and-simone-collins", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/american-pronatalists-malcolm-and-simone-collins", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "which prompted a lot of social media debate about whether they are bad parents or not. Let's bet on it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution is several decades out so bet at your own risk. Long-term bets are presently not incentive-compatible and i expect to refine the resolution criteria over the next several months.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Each child will be judged based on their status on their 30th birthday. The Collinses are awarded one point for each child with 1+ \"Good Outcomes\" and lose one point for each child with 1+ \"Bad Outcomes.\" Resolves to 50% if the final score is 0. Feel free to suggest outcomes for either list. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Good\" Outcomes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has a PhD", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "100k social media followers/subscribers on any platform", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Millionaire (non-inherited)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3+ children", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Won any \"significant\" awards. Knighthood, Bronze Star, Hugo Award, Oscar, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Bad\" Outcomes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Are estranged from parents/have been disowned/has filed for emancipation/did not call Simone for Mothers' Day, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has ever been imprisoned", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Convicted of 3+ crimes", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Negative net worth", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NEET (with <$500 million in the bank)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inpatient at psychiatric hospital", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has children without presently being in a marriage/LTR (widows/widowers are fine)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has died in an accident or from any disease for which there are known prophylactic measures which were not taken.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I received Simone Collins' permission to create this market, but invite her to request changes to the criteria lists.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "THE FINE PRINT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monetary values adjusted for inflation", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.023676865352051546} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.40769764273017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MichaelWheatley | 1719514940234 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | [{"name": "Children", "slug": "children", "groupId": "M3DL9ICA4BGx11x5YnPi", "createdTime": 1718222811219}, {"name": "Pronatalism", "slug": "pronatalism", "groupId": "JNLd5DebiB7v8tEikUxK", "createdTime": 1718222811305}] | ["children", "pronatalism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718283977413 | 1719514938598 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999845 | cNzrWPNRzZ3sjCyeNogz | {"NO": 9454.504965644639, "YES": 105.76968372577448} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-6jjjkirlwy | 9140.677307804972 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 13 than it closed on June 12? | 1718308947429 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.852556071030556 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718222839216 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.1857819112624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718308947429 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718308947429 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718222839435}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1718222839434}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718222839436}] | ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718308639781 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5wSyoC9iCFAgp2zjMiNb | ansem-vs-tate | 1009.8935175631234 | Ansem vs. Tate | 1735707540000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.6573155875608165 | False | basic | public | 1718222882596 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.37636381496935, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 6000 | MichaelWheatley | 1720053161621 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b7i4rln12k", "prob": 0.3328720094375014, "text": "Ansem", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1649.0265579044988, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3304.9092226709863, "textFts": "'ansem':1", "contractId": "5wSyoC9iCFAgp2zjMiNb", "createdTime": 1718222882596, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1671279905624986}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.1671279905624986}, {"id": "4c45rav8tr", "prob": 0.6671279905624987, "text": "Tate", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3304.909222670987, "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1649.0265579044983, "textFts": "'tate':1", "contractId": "5wSyoC9iCFAgp2zjMiNb", "createdTime": 1718222882596, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.16712799056249872}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.16712799056249872}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718308303777 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4RkihazDQwmGNpZ734AY | {"NO": 158.4614943120157, "YES": 63.1068136989147} | 0.7151812266589972 | will-big-mom-make-an-appearance-in | 120 | Will big Mom make an appearance in the one piece manga before the end of the year. | 1735707540000 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718222939048 | Andrew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this market to resolve yes big mom has to either in body be present in either a cover story or a chapter before december 31 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes flash backs count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A picture of if big mom for example a wanted poster or a news paper article does not count", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2151812266589972} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1394134511952885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AndrewCrosse | 1719473632117 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709841963600 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1718222939872}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1718222939876}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1718222939875}] | ["manga", "anime", "one-piece-theories"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719473629065 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | B5PKQFEA6cpXBDMhaqeW | {"NO": 217.4668071042619, "YES": 45.98402916361218} | 0.825454988812956 | -will-the-sp-500-indexspinx-close-h-c3785wi74r | 120 | 🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Higher Than 5,599.99 At Any Point During 2024? | 1735664400000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718224451661 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Higher Than 5,599.99 At Any Point During 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions are open the entire year or until event occurs.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve YES according to question as soon as it happens, or NO at the end of the trading year if it does not happen.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The All Time High Of The S&P 500 IS: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500#Milestone_highs", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "5,487.03 Tuesday, June 18, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CONTEXT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZIIlGb4z0L.png?alt=media&token=9048e554-3e9f-45e6-bc36-3cce55af5671", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source Link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fundstrats-lee-reveals-highest-s-p-500-forecast-on-wall-street-what-the-stock-markets-biggest-bull-expects-in-2024-3cba04ec", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CLARIFICATIONS:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.325454988812956} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5331928957381096, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SirCryptomind | 1718892531259 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718224452105}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1718224452102}, {"name": "All Time High", "slug": "all-time-high", "groupId": "355a3e6f-53ac-48ed-86bc-61cbaa0f1142", "createdTime": 1718224452104}] | ["stocks", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "all-time-high"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718698898826 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | OcmDZK8BjdEBuGeHf3zO | {"NO": 1717.3772231880967, "YES": 582.283255244078} | 0.7467959897971297 | will-lessonline-2025-and-manifest-2 | 897.7636299365855 | Will LessOnline 2025 and Manifest 2025 be within two weeks of each other? | 1767254340000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.616323628305308 | False | basic | public | 1718224939896 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For 2024, they were a week apart as part of a broader festival season. The markets on both of them recurring in 2025 (for LessOnline's second year and Manifest's third) are pretty high, but will the events be temporally close again?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "udZdojXU7tMv5VfRcxzp,yICG9wEfnAf8vLqJKwIb"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that if either of the two events does not occur, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.2467959897971297} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.979877998206202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1719621690881 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719621687153 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vtj0N86CVH7fMCcuQM80 | {"NO": 1527.5252316519468, "YES": 654.6536707079783} | 0.6999999999999998 | if-another-carrington-event-happens | 1550.2438288657136 | If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this? | 5680396740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.598418162168127 | False | basic | public | 1718225078499 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the sake of the question, \"another Carrington Event\" is defined as a storm with a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dst", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_storm_time_index", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria (provisional):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I'm ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ever", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " able to resolve this market after another Carrington Event happens, then this market will be resolved YES as soon as that happens. Otherwise, this market won't resolve until there's a clear consensus about what the hypothetical result would be in the case of another Carrington Event (currently there isn't, as far as I'm aware). In that case, at least one Manifold poll with a majority vote would have to pass before me deciding to resolve this market. For example, one like:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zSg2LlleDkAnhKUsrtCD", "label": "/singer/is-there-a-strong-scientific-consen"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I die before any Carrington Event like incident occurs, this market will resolve to N/A. Same if Manifold becomes defunct before such an incident occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "iIfLvPHgRrCgSgc72i7i", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-hit-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cYdnL6r7VixfXaxweu58", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-rcv868itnl"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.059629913103013465, "week": 0.059629913103013465, "month": 0.19999999999999984} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.58503027026086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | singer | 1718511358235 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718225078662}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1718225078727}] | ["technology-default", "natural-disasters"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718299284382 | 1718511356951 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | uO5EgftI1cKCbDmpjpjV | {"NO": 336.0659462041772, "YES": 2975.606458478982} | 0.10147922413126792 | does-the-ansemtate-fight-happen | 2885.689810613141 | Does the Ansem-Tate fight happen? | 1767243540000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.764308328866703 | False | basic | public | 1718225554829 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By end of 2025.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3985207758687321} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.31983359722458, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MichaelWheatley | 1718636518549 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718225555171}, {"name": "andrew tate", "slug": "andrew-tate", "groupId": "3a0f34a6-79e7-4c87-926f-c10d6f4f9528", "createdTime": 1718225555172}] | ["crypto-speculation", "andrew-tate"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718636515413 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | C5KQGLY0FvoJkdcefpxy | {"NO": 250.44020663073658, "YES": 3992.9690741489226} | 0.05901863102508046 | will-elon-musk-remove-the-ability-t | 3883.9401063345886 | Will Elon Musk remove the ability to Delete Poasts from X.com within one year? | 1749794340000 | ZZJgoiLOP1UPSGBJXJQKErIo6in2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.891562326670236 | False | basic | public | 1718226192942 | Alex Caswen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk recently made likes private. He’s a fan of the engineering philosophy that the best part is a removed part. I predict he’ll remove the ability to delete poasts from X.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.009739745038677694, "week": 0.009739745038677694, "month": -0.4409813689749195} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.09081951649009, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 397.86472694805474 | 1000 | AlexCaswen | 1720218411889 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676758453192 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718226193462}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1718226193465}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1718226193476}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720218408694 | 1718280900705 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | f58BQp8dIDV2viabSKSb | {"NO": 700.1194682174979, "YES": 1428.3276574867969} | 0.3289343952980892 | will-there-be-a-mass-shooting-with | 7116.21435464425 | Will there be a mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities in the US in 2024? | 1735678740000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.363619000997708 | False | basic | public | 1718228413918 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purpose of this market, a “mass shooting” is defined as an event involving the intentional use of firearms to harm multiple individuals, leading to at least 20 victims who are killed in the incident. The count of fatalities will exclude the shooter(s) involved in the attack.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The event must be confirmed by credible news sources and official law enforcement reports, specifying the number of fatalities.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": A mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities (excluding the perpetrator(s)) will occur in the US/US territories in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": No mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities (excluding the perpetrator(s)) will occur in the US/US territories in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note that incidents occurring as part of organized crime, gang conflicts, or terrorist attacks are included as long as they meet the specified criteria for fatalities.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1710656047019108} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 200.81856754885752, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719129647615 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | [{"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1718228414564}, {"name": "guns", "slug": "guns", "groupId": "0gSLNbC6ByAwlLcDhOfu", "createdTime": 1718228414566}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1718228414556}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1718228414801}] | ["terrorism", "guns", "death-markets", "united-states"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719129644576 | 1718254124066 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qSu7t1XoQRphy70l4sc0 | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | has-eigil-recieved-a-termiation-of | 5 | Has Eigil recieved a termiation of his assignment by newyears 24 | 1735685940000 | AUVfWBv6yIZqRJKKN7QWV1i15X93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718231121956 | Robert Solli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RobertSolli | 1718231187045 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVE1wPwpFes-gpoKbjMplRQl0QxK4EAH1r4M43q4zr=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700943575907 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1718231122133}] | ["personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718231183777 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | vnW1PcCTQGb2JT47FRuJ | {"NO": 146.5656497283752, "YES": 68.2288109016856} | 1 | will-vladimir-putin-make-another-co | 51 | Will Vladimir Putin make another comment about nuclear weapons by June 29th? | 1718893171558 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718231418777 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "June 5, 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", Russian President Vladimir Putin said \"that Russia could use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A few days later on Friday, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "June 7, 2004", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-calls-major-expansion-russian-financial-markets-cutting-use-western-2024-06-07/#:~:text=Putin%20said%20he%20did%20not%20rule%20out%20changes%20to%20Russia's,so%20at%20the%20present%20time", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", Putin backed off the statement saying \"The use is possible in an exceptional case - in the event of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. I don't think that such a case has come. There is no such need.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russia and Belarus engaged in tactical nuclear weapons drills on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "June 12, 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/12/russia-and-belarus-begin-second-stage-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-drills", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the same day as \"Russia Day,\" the national holiday of Russia. Belarus is a northern neighbor of Ukraine and hosts Russian troops.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vladimir Putin reference using nuclear weapons between June 13, 2024 and June 29, 2024 (dates inclusive, Eastern US Time)? ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "June 29th is the date of the Russian holiday '", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Day of the partisans and underground fighters", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.topwar.ru/184507-29-ijunja-den-partizan-i-podpolschikov.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "'.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will close June 29, 2024, at 11:59PM ET. The source will need to be from an American 'major outlet' referenced ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240511202832/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States#Major_outlets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Their official websites or official social media channels will count. Timestamps will govern. Reports June 30, 2024, and on, will not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any public statement or reference to nuclear weapons will count as YES. Using the words 'nuclear' or 'atomic' will automatically count as YES, but they are not necessary. The context of the statement will be taken into consideration, particularly if Putin is responding to a question. Putin making any statement ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "against", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " the use of nuclear weapons or nuclear war will also count as YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "References to other non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction will NOT count. References to Ukraine or the Ukrainian war are not required. Military exercises and maneuvers with nuclear weapons do not count unless Putin comments on them.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market creator will not trade in this market. If there is any question about a Putin statement or translation, the market creator will use best judgement to resolve.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.401253557268248, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718893171558 | 100 | MauriceBransfield | 1718893171558 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1718231418952}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hXGBmhMWy8gwn7p", "createdTime": 1718231418947}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1718231418949}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1718231418950}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1718231418953}] | ["nuclear", "vladimir-putin", "ukraine", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718638333767 | 1718893142374 | 0.68 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh | what-will-be-true-of-the-tsla-88-ma | 23366.498942488062 | What will be true of the TSLA 8/8 market by the time it closes? | 1723100340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718232164118 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closing this a day early to avoid the most egregious manipulation, will resolve after 8/8.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market in question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 308.65249368608164, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 200.20645333746984 | 1800 | Stralor | 1720217424720 | 0 | 41 | 6 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fvx9z04rwv", "prob": 1, "text": "200 traders", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1469.9110571025835, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.803132714513708, "textFts": "'200':1 'trader':2", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718477326499, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 1}, {"id": "ihi3x9kkim", "prob": 0.99, "text": "300 traders", "index": 1, "poolNo": 994.9874371066198, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.050378152592145, "textFts": "'300':1 'trader':2", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.19999999999999996, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.19999999999999996, "resolutionTime": 1720123568070, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "1kelue08os", "prob": 0.99, "text": "TSLABull ( @MolbyDick ) has 1.5M mana invested", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1043.9356067871743, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.579134895854466, "textFts": "'1.5':4 'invest':7 'm':5 'mana':6 'molbydick':2 'tslabul':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.03395803142263121, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.03395803142263121, "resolutionTime": 1719817954637, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "ijldnebptd", "prob": 0.99, "text": "TSLABull ( @MolbyDick ) has 2M mana invested", "index": 3, "poolNo": 994.9874371066305, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.050378152592202, "textFts": "'2m':4 'invest':6 'mana':5 'molbydick':2 'tslabul':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.8524178471278812, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.8524178471278812, "resolutionTime": 1719865866073, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "8oqao2h48m", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Market at 50% or more continuously for 24h", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1109.8122226429016, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.01053331002808, "textFts": "'24h':8 '50':3 'continu':6 'market':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.8780915368862017, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.8780915368862017, "resolutionTime": 1720123560022, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "i4r1zt0et6", "prob": 0.27000000000000046, "text": "Market at 5% or less continuously for 24h", "index": 5, "poolNo": 60.81636405595382, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 164.42942874387478, "textFts": "'24h':8 '5':3 'continu':6 'less':5 'market':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09584138167392181, "week": -0.5499999999999995, "month": -0.22999999999999954}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09584138167392181, "probChangeWeek": -0.5499999999999995, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.22999999999999954}, {"id": "yrz1awp2sm", "prob": 1, "text": "10M trading volume", "index": 6, "poolNo": 1581.2416730398159, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.324143975269749, "textFts": "'10m':1 'trade':2 'volum':3", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.3500000000000001, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.3500000000000001, "resolutionTime": 1720031675025, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 1}, {"id": "nbxqbnywat", "prob": 0.78, "text": "A NO holder has >1M shares", "index": 7, "poolNo": 187.88587762839785, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.22379801092919, "textFts": "'1m':5 'holder':3 'share':6", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.08080374436499504, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.08080374436499504, "resolutionTime": 1719864609468, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.78}, {"id": "a04ptwfz4z", "prob": 0.13848213456946562, "text": "Crystal Market (1M subsidies)", "index": 8, "poolNo": 40.09264703679281, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 249.4222940885657, "textFts": "'1m':3 'crystal':1 'market':2 'subsidi':4", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1815178654305345, "week": -0.04980259069189591, "month": -0.3615178654305344}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1815178654305345, "probChangeWeek": -0.04980259069189591, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.3615178654305344}, {"id": "qk4f9k2kbj", "prob": 0.6220434031749745, "text": "Will be resolved early (incl N/A)", "index": 9, "poolNo": 128.28898805053058, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.94901302098656, "textFts": "'earli':4 'incl':5 'n/a':6 'resolv':3", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1718232164118, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.46233432475756, "month": 0.12204340317497453}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.46233432475756, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.12204340317497453}, {"id": "v85ixc8tw4", "prob": 0.09676014229870653, "text": "Prize Market", "index": 10, "poolNo": 32.73005253225683, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 305.5296043336504, "textFts": "'market':2 'prize':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1718232323405, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0618487131902815, "month": -0.40323985770129345}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0618487131902815, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.40323985770129345}, {"id": "wen7oju76a", "prob": 0.0857333214609197, "text": "The market will be unranked and/or unlisted at close", "index": 11, "poolNo": 30.622340330162686, "userId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.5589727036667, "textFts": "'and/or':6 'close':9 'market':2 'unlist':7 'unrank':5", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1718289679830, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.02963830858924106, "month": -0.4142666785390803}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.02963830858924106, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.4142666785390803}, {"id": "qn0ahuqmvo", "prob": 0.9555019722681388, "text": "TSLABull ( @MolbyDick ) has 3M mana invested", "index": 12, "poolNo": 463.38867191343036, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.580156370046385, "textFts": "'3m':4 'invest':6 'mana':5 'molbydick':2 'tslabul':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719866034066, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0007172544542385362, "week": 0.46261897505248306, "month": 0.46261897505248306}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0007172544542385362, "probChangeWeek": 0.46261897505248306, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.46261897505248306}, {"id": "wgyj3u3fp6", "prob": 0.6068622659942715, "text": "A NO holder has >2M shares", "index": 13, "poolNo": 124.2432210587677, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.48728868088463, "textFts": "'2m':5 'holder':3 'share':6", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719866065499, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10686226599427151, "week": 0.10686226599427151, "month": 0.10686226599427151}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.10686226599427151, "probChangeWeek": 0.10686226599427151, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.10686226599427151}, {"id": "bx9bnvhetm", "prob": 0.4076830959215255, "text": "A YES holder other than TSLABull has >1M shares", "index": 14, "poolNo": 82.96296954196877, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 120.53570472717047, "textFts": "'1m':8 'holder':3 'share':9 'tslabul':6 'yes':2", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719866108759, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.09231690407847448, "month": -0.09231690407847448}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.09231690407847448, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.09231690407847448}, {"id": "wrf0npvhpe", "prob": 0.55, "text": "20M trading volume", "index": 15, "poolNo": 110.55415967851333, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 90.45340337332908, "textFts": "'20m':1 'trade':2 'volum':3", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719866171899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.050000000000000044, "month": 0.050000000000000044}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.050000000000000044, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.050000000000000044}, {"id": "ixas3z0aya", "prob": 0.3468291621180131, "text": "400 traders", "index": 16, "poolNo": 72.86926853612806, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 137.23206230678804, "textFts": "'400':1 'trader':2", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719866183487, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15317083788198688, "month": -0.15317083788198688}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15317083788198688, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.15317083788198688}, {"id": "xmnjg5x4h6", "prob": 0.51, "text": "TSLABull ( @MolbyDick ) has 4M mana invested", "index": 17, "poolNo": 102.02040612204074, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 98.01960588196069, "textFts": "'4m':4 'invest':6 'mana':5 'molbydick':2 'tslabul':1", "contractId": "hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh", "createdTime": 1719873827500, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.09999999999999987, "month": 0.09999999999999987}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.09999999999999987, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.09999999999999987}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1718232164273}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1718232164279}, {"name": "$TSLA", "slug": "tsla", "groupId": "288e80f2-83b9-4298-819a-6d12cac1dbba", "createdTime": 1718232164283}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1718232525193}] | ["metamarkets", "tesla", "tsla", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | 1720217421507 | 1720114767542 | False | liquidity | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | p3aXpkCPch0szBfO8erz | {"NO": 1218.13708414998, "YES": 820.9256683928998} | 0.5974004883522407 | will-california-ai-bill-sb1047-be-p | 225 | Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement? | 1727852340000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577621053280419 | False | basic | public | 1718232371480 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SB-1047 Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" is scheduled to be voted on by the California General Assembly in August 2024, and if passed should be signed or vetoed by the governor before the end of September.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The bill contains a requirement for the publishers of large AI models to include a \"kill switch\": a capability to stop the model completely if it is deemed dangerous. This requirement ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "can be interpreted", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/06/outcry-from-big-ai-firms-over-california-ai-kill-switch-bill/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as basically banning open source distribution of the models.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the bill be turned into law before October 1st 2024, including this specific requirement?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similar more general question: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe", "label": "/ZviMowshowitz/will-california-bill-sb-1047-become"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.09740048835224069} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.862915850019704, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1718306564028 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1718232371625}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718232371627}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718232371632}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1718232371629}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718232371639}] | ["ai-regulation", "politics-default", "technology-default", "ai-safety", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718306560348 | 1718273542793 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qmw0g05vVuO3PfoTuZfR | chestnut-vs-kobayashi-unfinished-be | 751.5813688701 | Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef Netflix Sep 2nd Live Event prop bets | 1725335940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718232810687 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own answers!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1800996834027999361"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.444789392577274, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dglid | 1718653560088 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "anlnocndih", "prob": 0.7389580768176925, "text": "Joey Chestnut wins", "index": 0, "poolNo": 841.24941323313, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 297.1770274872325, "textFts": "'chestnut':2 'joey':1 'win':3", "contractId": "qmw0g05vVuO3PfoTuZfR", "createdTime": 1718232810687, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.23895807681769254, "month": 0.23895807681769254}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.23895807681769254, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.23895807681769254}, {"id": "m5ri3t4r6g", "prob": 0.3140179659786384, "text": "Takeru Kobayashi wins", "index": 1, "poolNo": 338.29134100521054, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 739.0079783217078, "textFts": "'kobayashi':2 'takeru':1 'win':3", "contractId": "qmw0g05vVuO3PfoTuZfR", "createdTime": 1718232810687, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.15349935594549347, "month": -0.15349935594549347}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.15349935594549347, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.15349935594549347}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1718232810830}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1718232810832}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718232810834}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1718232810837}] | ["sports-betting", "tv", "entertainment", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1718653556843 | 1718249901060 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ZlrxdAb90z5bvQMXpOcy | {"NO": 128.13607426628562, "YES": 78.0420350573448} | 0.6214824390748244 | will-nadu-winged-wisdom-be-banned-i | 1170.4918205508086 | Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in the modern format by the end of 2024? | 1718866740000 | oHooHrSvo2cMY2PvENYqQNpVDW62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718232942297 | Sam Sherman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.12148243907482437} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.631775103114162, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SamSherman | 1718858501933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbVKw4H2ZSBAM4Fr6E5QiKGNYAP2JEfU1mD_elzMcTWGsU5K94=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717900500542 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718858498719 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xusl7tfbyBacracYxnlZ | {"NO": 395.0191551109238, "YES": 2531.5228060755526} | 0.13497812788946842 | will-openai-shares-pay-a-dividend-b | 2167.2647993968026 | Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031? | 1924405140000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.716481704501788 | False | basic | public | 1718233055136 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if OpenAI shares pay out a combined $1 billion or more in distributions to all shareholders. This can be a dividend or profit distribution, or proceeds from a sale of the company. Share buybacks do not count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves NO if OpenAI declares that it has achieved AGI, the company goes bankrupt, or the deadline occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.3650218721105316} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.33012600771672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719307284664 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718233055278}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718233055276}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718233055294}] | ["technology-default", "economics-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719307281549 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Nmmiw0EfWyUCIgOshtUV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-chappell-roan-drop-a-new-album | 0 | Will Chappell Roan drop a new album in 2024? | 1719844088066 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718233857303 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Chappell Roan's next album be released in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chappell Roan's first (and most recent) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "album ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_a_Midwest_Princess", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "was released in 2023 and her latest ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "single", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Luck,_Babe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " released in April (a non-album single described as the \"first song of the next chapter\") was the highest charting to date. Collaborator and producer Dan Nigro has recently teased new music.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question is scheduled to close December 31, 2024, 11:59PM ET, but will close and resolve as soon as the album is released. The album just needs to be to be officially for sale or available on any streaming platform. This does not need to be a studio album; a live album or remix album will count, as will a \"mixtape\" release. Leaks and bootlegs will not count. An EP or single released in will not count. If she releases additional singles or EPs before releasing an album, that will still resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ultimate determine in the type of release (album v. EP v. single) will be made by how the artist refers to it in promotion. If the artist is unclear or silent, then an album will be considered any release with a 30 minute or more runtime in the official release on Spotify.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market creator will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chappell Roan and Dan Nigro Tease Theatrical Singer’s Next Album", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://variety.com/2024/music/news/chappell-roan-dan-nigro-new-album-1235997471/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit: When do you think we’ll get the 2nd album?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/chappellroan/comments/1blychu/when_do_you_think_well_get_the_2nd_album/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719844088066 | 100 | MauriceBransfield | 1719844093344 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718233857520}, {"name": "Albums", "slug": "albums", "groupId": "f6392778-adeb-48c7-9208-30569c411e42", "createdTime": 1718233857518}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1718233857535}, {"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5zW2RofbGNE", "createdTime": 1718233857536}] | ["entertainment", "albums", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "music-artists"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719844092264 | 0.5 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | J123mptTDyIPuc4WVzSa | {"NO": 100.50378152592114, "YES": 9949.874371066191} | 0 | will-somebody-die-in-space-today | 9921.833955183412 | Will somebody die in space today? | 1718348340000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718235462314 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/TLPN_Official/status/1801020834229706766", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reports", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1801028546703306765", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that some kind of accident has happened or is happening on the ISS. It might have resulted in partial decompression. Will it lead in anyone dying? (If anyone dies in space for any other reason today, it will also count.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the context, so far in the history of spaceflight nobody has died while in orbit. All space-related accidents happened either during accent or descent. If this accident results in any casualties, this will be a morbid first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.21666879062199, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718373055471 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1718348340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1718235462464}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718235462473}, {"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-42e3-be94-45b38d7b54c2", "createdTime": 1718235462471}] | ["space-exploration", "space", "space-colonization"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718346891380 | 1718248467443 | 0.01 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t | if-we-survive-general-artificial-in-z3suausl60 | 50 | If we survive general artificial intelligence before 2100, what will be the reason? | 4117211940000 | NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718236503668 | dionisos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is an approximate duplicate of these markets, but I am trying to do something more systematic :", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence#q040uk3r5bg", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence#q040uk3r5bg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related markets : ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Why don't build AGI ? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dionisos/we-dont-build-agi-before-2100-what", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dionisos/we-dont-build-agi-before-2100-what", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.435128087896635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | dionisos | 1718343415743 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "aeyeam4ke8", "prob": 0.2570401000895449, "text": "We don't build AGI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.979587322005724, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.078538690591344, "textFts": "'agi':5 'build':4", "contractId": "Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t", "createdTime": 1718236503668, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13674928087846655, "week": 0.007040100089544921, "month": 0.007040100089544921}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13674928087846655, "probChangeWeek": 0.007040100089544921, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.007040100089544921}, {"id": "uy1gpmzksb", "prob": 0.317891314458253, "text": "We build AGI, but it is not powerful enough to kill us", "index": 1, "poolNo": 19.707063602945137, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.28602241933171, "textFts": "'agi':3 'build':2 'enough':9 'kill':11 'power':8 'us':12", "contractId": "Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t", "createdTime": 1718236503668, "probChanges": {"day": 0.11582110811425686, "week": 0.06789131445825303, "month": 0.06789131445825303}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.11582110811425686, "probChangeWeek": 0.06789131445825303, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.06789131445825303}, {"id": "qjdcixlcps", "prob": 0.2900775331308123, "text": "We build AGI, it is powerful enough to kill us, but it doesn't try", "index": 2, "poolNo": 18.452744287392502, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.16040109560799, "textFts": "'agi':3 'build':2 'doesn':13 'enough':7 'kill':9 'power':6 'tri':15 'us':10", "contractId": "Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t", "createdTime": 1718236503668, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08800732678681614, "week": 0.040077533130812304, "month": 0.040077533130812304}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08800732678681614, "probChangeWeek": 0.040077533130812304, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.040077533130812304}, {"id": "59plcz04sn", "prob": 0.13499105232138991, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 11.403851898427583, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.07472429102991, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Nn6FkHrTXofTT2PjD27t", "createdTime": 1718236503668, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06707915402260625, "week": -0.11500894767861009, "month": -0.11500894767861009}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.06707915402260625, "probChangeWeek": -0.11500894767861009, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.11500894767861009}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678431021888 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718236503842}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1718236503845}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1718237566856}] | ["ai", "ai-safety", "agi"] | 0.25 | 1718326026603 | 1718308554440 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hfaXaIwAOqBSsp2NDbJb | will-a-righthanded-hitter-a-lefty-o | 0 | Will a right-handed hitter, a lefty, or a switch hitter win this year’s MLB Home Run Derby? | 1721105940000 | 4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718236762113 | Spongpad | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on winner of this year’s home run derby during the MLB All-Star break.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LBeesley | 1718236762307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "l5k4i692ff", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "Righty", "index": 0, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'righti':1", "contractId": "hfaXaIwAOqBSsp2NDbJb", "createdTime": 1718236762113, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4ri0p0639b", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "Lefty", "index": 1, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'lefti':1", "contractId": "hfaXaIwAOqBSsp2NDbJb", "createdTime": 1718236762113, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "nuycs4rgqp", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "Switch Hitter", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'hitter':2 'switch':1", "contractId": "hfaXaIwAOqBSsp2NDbJb", "createdTime": 1718236762113, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681923448038 | 0 | [{"name": "MLB All-Star Weekend", "slug": "mlb-allstar-weekend", "groupId": "d2e02fc7-15ca-4feb-894d-ab84ce7aa834", "createdTime": 1718236762273}, {"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "createdTime": 1718236762280}, {"name": "Home Run Derby", "slug": "home-run-derby", "groupId": "bc90c141-d270-4499-bc87-42c67b18a14f", "createdTime": 1718236762307}] | ["mlb-allstar-weekend", "mlb", "home-run-derby"] | 0.25 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IJSwn7coCFLf5Q096u3f | we-dont-build-agi-before-2100-what | 10 | We don't build AGI before 2100, what will be the reason ? | 4102527540000 | NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718237111692 | dionisos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The main market : ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dionisos/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in-z3suausl60", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dionisos/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in-z3suausl60", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(I want to had other sub-markets like that, but I want to wait to see what people are thinking about it first)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26453856071035087, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | dionisos | 1718239024511 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "91q2yh9uzz", "prob": 0.2816315152643422, "text": "It is impossible to build AGI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.13716472746971, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.46612903633915, "textFts": "'agi':6 'build':5 'imposs':3", "contractId": "IJSwn7coCFLf5Q096u3f", "createdTime": 1718237111692, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 35.35533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d7rtrm9poa", "prob": 0.2816315152643422, "text": "It is possible to build AGI, but we will not be able to do it before 2100", "index": 1, "poolNo": 22.13716472746971, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.46612903633915, "textFts": "'2100':17 'abl':12 'agi':6 'build':5 'possibl':3", "contractId": "IJSwn7coCFLf5Q096u3f", "createdTime": 1718237111692, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 35.35533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fziwy2bity", "prob": 0.4367369694713155, "text": "We would be able to build AGI before 2100, but we do not try", "index": 2, "poolNo": 31.132167675480794, "userId": "NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.15139623523486, "textFts": "'2100':9 'abl':4 'agi':7 'build':6 'tri':14 'would':2", "contractId": "IJSwn7coCFLf5Q096u3f", "createdTime": 1718237111692, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 35.35533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678431021888 | 0 | [{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1718237111903}, {"name": "Anthis Big Questions", "slug": "anthis-big-questions", "groupId": "aKqwgBMtkNUG1AbQ7gTt", "createdTime": 1718237111910}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1718237549597}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718237557668}] | ["agi", "anthis-big-questions", "ai-safety", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1718239018340 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f | how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens | 7300.552933364293 | How many seats will Marine Le Pen's National Rally party win in the 2024 French legislative elections? | 1719730740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.652739106410843 | False | plus | public | 1718237198552 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "This market resolves to the number of seats won by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National Rally", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rally", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (Rassemblement National i.e. RN) party in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2024 French legislative elections", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the totals reported by Le Monde. Here are the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "results from 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/06/20/carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-les-deputes-elus-circonscription-par-circonscription_6131057_4355771.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "—National Rally (\"RN\") won 89 seats.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I note the source because ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia notes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_legislative_election#Second_round", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that some sources might disagree on party classifications, although I don't expect that to be an issue for RN.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This count refers to the seats won by the RN party itself, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " a potential coalition it joins.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a two stage election—June 30th & July 7th. This market will close the night before the first stage (midnight PT, June 29th). It will resolve once Le Monde reports the results, after July 7th.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm not an expert in French politics—if any scenarios are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Macron called for a shocking snap election after his party was demolished in the EU elections by a surging RN party.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RN's historical results", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rally", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2012 - 2 seats won", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2017 - 8 seats won", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 - 89 seats won", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RN is comfortably ahead of all other parties in the polls. However, in France's two stage National Assembly elections, far right parties sometimes struggle in the second round (once moderate candidates no longer split the vote with each other). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "L6wVzmSJO9MOwJkMGPoE", "label": "/Ziddletwix/polymarket-national-rally-coalition"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qVbRGXkeaB0CgkB7Hjot", "label": "/Ziddletwix/polymarket-which-party-will-win-the-rkn3t1qdg2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/polymarket-national-rally-coalition", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Check out the ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "2024 French Legislative Elections dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/french-elections", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 163.4323951080708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ziddletwix | 1719877398197 | 0 | 38 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "id96wedn9a", "prob": 0.13046444321265932, "text": "<180", "index": 0, "poolNo": 826.3993411717912, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5507.888536980157, "textFts": "'180':1", "contractId": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "createdTime": 1718237198552, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.013411700955614753, "month": -0.11953555678734068}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.013411700955614753, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.11953555678734068}, {"id": "9mpe42ls4e", "prob": 0.36417078128956, "text": "181-230", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2358.7018645621397, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4118.209479642286, "textFts": "'-230':2 '181':1", "contractId": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "createdTime": 1718237198552, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.109108380918492e-05, "month": 0.11417078128955999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 5.109108380918492e-05, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.11417078128955999}, {"id": "1i83mdycvd", "prob": 0.353255229063151, "text": "231-288", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2369.5830633314586, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4338.266866068599, "textFts": "'-288':2 '231':1", "contractId": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "createdTime": 1718237198552, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.021729020918905606, "month": 0.10325522906315099}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.021729020918905606, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.10325522906315099}, {"id": "z86lohz094", "prob": 0.15210954643462973, "text": ">289", "index": 3, "poolNo": 911.7082923897472, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5082.052873557592, "textFts": "'289':1", "contractId": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "createdTime": 1718237198552, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.008368411047100038, "month": -0.09789045356537027}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.008368411047100038, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.09789045356537027}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1718237198738}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718296427524}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1718296431680}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1718296441313}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1718296464880}] | ["france", "politics-default", "world-default", "geopolitics", "elections-world"] | 0.25 | 1719661635833 | 1719877396553 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | P9aqXLWSILPN2GSwfubA | {"NO": 807.4005624452485, "YES": 1238.5426100911493} | 0.3946348917620708 | will-hunter-biden-spend-a-day-in-ja | 1705.1267195314347 | Will Hunter Biden spend a day in jail before the end of July 2025? | 1754020740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577452994635497 | False | basic | public | 1718239000296 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.035514059769331474, "month": -0.10536510823792922} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.22645768052803, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719936460858 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Hunter Biden", "slug": "hunter-biden", "groupId": "57ba045a-0d33-42ab-b9f6-64011bc2e013", "createdTime": 1718239000466}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718239000468}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718239000473}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718239000475}, {"name": "Prison Markets", "slug": "prison-markets", "groupId": "ybPe7R5zhvOzOIs3n3yM", "createdTime": 1718239000469}] | ["hunter-biden", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719936455751 | 1718253894693 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uMrCI3iAKrADLGqxHJFy | {"NO": 29.93759643166068, "YES": 334.02815161956147} | 0.08225388403154756 | universal-coronavirus-vaccine-relea | 300 | Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030? | 1893560340000 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718239803306 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a Universal Coronavirus Vaccine available to the general public by midnight of January 1st, 2030, either via Emergency Use Authorization or otherwise, this market will resolve to YES. If it is restricted to certain groups of people and not available to the full population, that will still be sufficient to resolve this market to yes. A vaccine in clinical trials or testing or development will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only release to the public in the United States. If the vaccine is later removed from the market, this will still resolve yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41774611596845246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8524666653483526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mana | 1718403794007 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1718239803460}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718239803471}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1718239803464}] | ["covid-d7a9361d772d", "medicine", "public-health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718239901028 | 1718403792841 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | cwQjGiIHkOyaqzcR2Efr | {"NO": 475.29240806821383, "YES": 2103.967963772901} | 0.18427469101498392 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-cfm30qv59l | 1511 | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.658308036344623 | False | basic | public | 1718240373070 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJRvzXjp5LO.png?alt=media&token=ebf105b8-bfa7-4554-beda-79145360df78", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wdxD5fXCM9vdwuhCLVTB", "label": "/strutheo/will-palestine-be-fully-recognized"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8xvmgCnkainkhxWE7yFR", "label": "/strutheo/will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-38ad147ff39a"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.31572530898501605} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.50591784043335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718643119235 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1718240373306}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1718240373304}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1718240373307}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1718240373306}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1718240373308}] | ["arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "palestine", "world-default", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718643116036 | 1718600203326 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | RzClkeVUOzspgTbizgZ8 | {"NO": 724.0736523739649, "YES": 1381.074973134809} | 0.34395369695048084 | will-donald-trump-live-to-see-hunte | 1712.3825182566068 | Will Donald Trump live to see Hunter Biden spend a day in jail? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586590889331772 | False | basic | public | 1718241432718 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.28916180465411234, "month": -0.15604630304951916} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.63632341145431, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719998913491 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718241432966}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718241432989}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718241432993}, {"name": "Hunter Biden", "slug": "hunter-biden", "groupId": "57ba045a-0d33-42ab-b9f6-64011bc2e013", "createdTime": 1718241433000}, {"name": "Prison Markets", "slug": "prison-markets", "groupId": "ybPe7R5zhvOzOIs3n3yM", "createdTime": 1718241433023}] | ["the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "law-order", "hunter-biden", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719998910387 | 1718244955846 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 7ltwJyEU5mPMx79Css0b | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-demystifying-alignment-through | 0 | Will "Demystifying "Alignment" through a Comic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718241625331 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Demystifying \"Alignment\" through a Comic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Av9D4GkdGNkiS2wHx/demystifying-alignment-through-a-comic", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718241625684 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718241625684}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-ttzls7erd2 | 31 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1718316462453 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | v1wv0j08ga | public | 1718242715495 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 6]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environment:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I shake the die 3 times in my hand and then roll it into a box on a level surface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Strictly speaking a d12 has a 1/12 or 8.3% chance for any side. However, as some may believe, each die has a personality. So I did 50 prerolls for you and added the results from the previous day got the following results. Best of Luck.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Previous roll: 5", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total Rolls:56", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "number-quantity-percent", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1s-6-10.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2s-5-8.9%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3s-2-3.6%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4s-9-16.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5s-6-12.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6s-4-7.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7s-1-1.8%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8s-7-12.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9s-4-7.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10s-6-10.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11s-3-5.4%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "12s-2-3.6%", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5001037766535448, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718316462453 | 120 | CrowTheFox | 1718316673233 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "olcprw5tfu", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "v1wv0j08ga", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "2", "index": 1, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "t1mudpzl85", "prob": 0.09357646423931779, "text": "3", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5.812629433247887, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.30373156092621, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": 0.010243130905984457, "week": 0.010243130905984457, "month": 0.010243130905984457}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.010243130905984457, "probChangeWeek": 0.010243130905984457, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": 0.010243130905984457}, {"id": "gbblsabmh1", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "4", "index": 3, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "iq02ggurfh", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "5", "index": 4, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "s7sso2dl7a", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "6", "index": 5, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "5w3lb6nh1y", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "7", "index": 6, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'7':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "sq6eblh7jy", "prob": 0.10707952527586061, "text": "8", "index": 7, "poolNo": 6.264721017560627, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.24059081886484, "textFts": "'8':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": 0.02374619194252728, "week": 0.02374619194252728, "month": 0.02374619194252728}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.02374619194252728, "probChangeWeek": 0.02374619194252728, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": 0.02374619194252728}, {"id": "6n4vic1q4o", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "9", "index": 8, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'9':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "vxcbfcmgi0", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "10", "index": 9, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "wpi2teunyb", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "11", "index": 10, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'11':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}, {"id": "dt0adftkoz", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "12", "index": 11, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'12':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718242715495, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0033989322848513165, "week": -0.0033989322848513165, "month": -0.0033989322848513165}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0033989322848513165, "probChangeWeek": -0.0033989322848513165, "resolutionTime": 1718316462453, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0033989322848513165}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1718242715683}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1718242715680}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1718242715690}] | ["dd", "fun", "dice"] | 0.25 | 1718297174830 | 1718316671718 | {"v1wv0j08ga": 100} | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA | trump-truth-market-june-1521 | 4042.476454726851 | Trump Truth Market (June 15-21) | 1719028740000 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | c8bjjo7xvz | public | 1718245676125 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many times will Former President Donald J. Trump “truth” (aka post) from his Truth Social account between Saturday, June 15, 2024, and Friday, June 21, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Washington Post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/trump-truth-social-posts", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " analysis shows Trump increasing social media use since his ban from Twitter (now known as X) in January 2021. Where he was “tweeting” on Twitter 18 times per day, Trump is now “truthing” on Truth Social 29 times per day on average.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes on June 21, 2024, at 11:59PM ET. Dates are inclusive and the time zone is Eastern US.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only \"truths\" (posts) made by the @realDonaldTrump account will count. \"ReTruths\" will not count towards the total. The total of truths on June 22, 2024, will resolve the market. If any truths from that 7-day period were also deleted before resolution, they will not be counted. The timestamps of the truths will determine when they occurred.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market creator will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Truth Social account", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Social media use by Donald Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Trump", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How Trump has become angrier and more isolated on Truth Social", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/trump-truth-social-posts", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump, Twitter, and Truth Social: how Trump used both mainstream and alt-tech social media to drive news media attention", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19331681.2024.2328156", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump Twitter Archive", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thetrumparchive.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 91.44054618723004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719066938515 | 1200 | MauriceBransfield | 1719028740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "40n0ba6hkt", "prob": 0.00525354051718969, "text": "< 100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.998651350722065, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1703.8750423570355, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005350127948299343, "week": -0.038938862725511475, "month": -0.07807979281614363}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.005350127948299343, "probChangeWeek": -0.038938862725511475, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07807979281614363}, {"id": "iei3nepb3q", "prob": 0.007351975122545982, "text": "101 - 120", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.463399147412073, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1682.7816118416906, "textFts": "'101':1 '120':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.007573190383678005, "week": -0.054943623593654185, "month": -0.07598135821078734}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.007573190383678005, "probChangeWeek": -0.054943623593654185, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07598135821078734}, {"id": "jhmh175l1x", "prob": 0.0067314068802662354, "text": "121 - 140", "index": 2, "poolNo": 11.922070899031155, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1759.1892452185325, "textFts": "'121':1 '140':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05085097724367355, "week": -0.05556419183593393, "month": -0.0766019264530671}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05085097724367355, "probChangeWeek": -0.05556419183593393, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.0766019264530671}, {"id": "ag5ladvu91", "prob": 0.25477414005246257, "text": "141 - 160", "index": 3, "poolNo": 84.67707436353412, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 247.68426476647957, "textFts": "'141':1 '160':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2028113913908435, "week": 0.1924785413362624, "month": 0.17144080671912926}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2028113913908435, "probChangeWeek": 0.1924785413362624, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": 0.17144080671912926}, {"id": "c8bjjo7xvz", "prob": 0.5534825730691798, "text": "161 - 180", "index": 4, "poolNo": 161.23707078028474, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 130.07665547886475, "textFts": "'161':1 '180':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": 0.5063472313520674, "week": 0.49118697435297964, "month": 0.4701492397358465}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.5063472313520674, "probChangeWeek": 0.49118697435297964, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": 0.4701492397358465}, {"id": "qxjry140hn", "prob": 0.07200695781876074, "text": "181 - 200", "index": 5, "poolNo": 40.3410318300654, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 519.8969375562058, "textFts": "'181':1 '200':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18799304218123922, "week": 0.009711359102560567, "month": -0.011326375514572593}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.18799304218123922, "probChangeWeek": 0.009711359102560567, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.011326375514572593}, {"id": "h8mlwl2ino", "prob": 0.051754525935763206, "text": "201 - 220", "index": 6, "poolNo": 85.4987447401998, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1566.5064315089135, "textFts": "'201':1 '220':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06616281027909934, "week": -0.2810970836595364, "month": -0.03157880739757012}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.06616281027909934, "probChangeWeek": -0.2810970836595364, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.03157880739757012}, {"id": "exjk2ulr7k", "prob": 0.0205900096524531, "text": "221 - 240", "index": 7, "poolNo": 23.159152356566167, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1101.617025385875, "textFts": "'221':1 '240':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06434266180359244, "week": -0.041705589063747064, "month": -0.06274332368088023}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.06434266180359244, "probChangeWeek": -0.041705589063747064, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.06274332368088023}, {"id": "8yrwna73qm", "prob": 0.00799354638440156, "text": "241 - 260", "index": 8, "poolNo": 13.000038296642856, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1613.3167016688446, "textFts": "'241':1 '260':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14165669046759252, "week": -0.054302052331798606, "month": -0.07533978694893177}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.14165669046759252, "probChangeWeek": -0.054302052331798606, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07533978694893177}, {"id": "dvfkh7911i", "prob": 0.006661760635653344, "text": "261 - 280", "index": 9, "poolNo": 11.859819123728926, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1768.423167967684, "textFts": "'261':1 '280':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0676816221523136, "week": -0.055633838080546824, "month": -0.07667157269767999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0676816221523136, "probChangeWeek": -0.055633838080546824, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07667157269767999}, {"id": "my4eyrfl9s", "prob": 0.006629824408280421, "text": "281 - 300", "index": 10, "poolNo": 11.8311670234026, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1772.705842527843, "textFts": "'281':1 '300':2", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06011389086966617, "week": -0.055665774307919746, "month": -0.07670350892505291}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.06011389086966617, "probChangeWeek": -0.055665774307919746, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07670350892505291}, {"id": "9uli13tv6r", "prob": 0.006769739523043354, "text": "> 300", "index": 11, "poolNo": 11.956199109676959, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1754.1677512992774, "textFts": "'300':1", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime": 1718245676125, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05743360941375662, "week": -0.055525859193156814, "month": -0.07656359381028997}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05743360941375662, "probChangeWeek": -0.055525859193156814, "resolutionTime": 1719066938515, "totalLiquidity": 18.09068067466582, "probChangeMonth": -0.07656359381028997}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "Truthsocial", "slug": "truthsocial", "groupId": "a714e245-3476-4744-b6ce-edcbd39f0c74", "createdTime": 1718245676285}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1718245676301}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718245676305}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718245676300}] | ["truthsocial", "social-media", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1719028343908 | 1719051823507 | {"c8bjjo7xvz": 100} | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zSg2LlleDkAnhKUsrtCD | is-there-a-strong-scientific-consen | 0 | Is there a strong scientific consensus that I'd be able to resolve a Manifold market after another Carrington Event? | 1735718340000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718245797619 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is specifically in order to calibrate resolution criteria for ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "vtj0N86CVH7fMCcuQM80", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-happens"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you answer Yes, you believe that there's a consensus on whether or not the internet would survive and society would continue functioning well enough after a Carrington Event level disaster such that I would still be able to resolve Manifold markets at some point after the disaster.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you answer No, then you believe there isn't any such consensus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you answer Other, please leave a comment explaining your belief.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe", "label": "/singer/how-many-billions-of-dollars-would"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718245797817 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718245797818}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718245797816}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1718245797817}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "technology-default", "natural-disasters"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 9R6eKGL5zrtggwQjFz5r | {"NO": 750.1696568181629, "YES": 1333.0317894241282} | 0.36010423196053853 | will-two-or-more-category-5-hurrica | 1623.3368070714964 | Will two or more Category 5 hurricanes have formed in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of 2024? | 1735793940000 | 1dTml0ZyhfP1dGAmTuWWKMEQVj62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.177112895890414 | False | basic | public | 1718246661834 | Sounds Nentindo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-does not need to make landfall as a category 5", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-i will not bet in this market ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbQfILyBlV8.png?alt=media&token=fa1c8ca4-cf4a-491a-bbed-a9cbbf7dadbb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06010423196053799, "week": 0.06010423196053799, "month": -0.13989576803946147} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.32906947895758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 1000 | SoundsNentindo | 1720192319752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjTy_rr1v6yh7WENeR8kOpMlP_UPqFMzyez1AQOZqX=s96-c | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702852140815 | 0 | [{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1718246662036}, {"name": "Extreme Weather", "slug": "extreme-weather", "groupId": "211601b5-4d33-4531-ae59-93cb57e4aa94", "createdTime": 1718246662039}, {"name": "North America", "slug": "north-america", "groupId": "3931f739-3c43-4e0e-af73-cb3aa22014d3", "createdTime": 1718246662042}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1718246662046}, {"name": "Meteorology", "slug": "meteorology", "groupId": "baec4c9b-810d-45d6-9754-96d7942202d3", "createdTime": 1718246662054}] | ["climate", "extreme-weather", "north-america", "natural-disasters", "meteorology"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720192316619 | 1719775311100 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe | which-predictions-on-manifold-are-t | 3801.620469865587 | Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on? | 1735718340000 | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.95792832817831 | False | basic | public | 1718248479804 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question aims to identify which predictions users believe would produce the greatest benefit to society if a large portion of society were to deeply consider them and understand the full context to make an accurate prediction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm basically using this as a recommender system powered by the community.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please add the predictions that you believe are most valuable (to society) for people to carefully evaluate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the top 25 to yes and all others as no on January 1st 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.4865582570424, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1300 | Krantz | 1720022495048 | 0 | 18 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4qq6u0akyk", "prob": 0.81, "text": "This prediction", "index": 0, "poolNo": 206.4741604835056, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.432210483785255, "textFts": "'predict':2", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.40962852782971426}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.40962852782971426}, {"id": "3ti9b1w0s8", "prob": 0.508327789011074, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 1, "poolNo": 101.6796621705086, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 98.34808443040268, "textFts": "'/krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.008327789011074005}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.008327789011074005}, {"id": "vnf0af7gv5", "prob": 0.31649334746332114, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 2, "poolNo": 68.0473034670086, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 146.9565947583552, "textFts": "'/krantz/if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/krantz/if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18350665253667886}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.18350665253667886}, {"id": "3iz8sb1fwr", "prob": 0.5, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 3, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'/krantz/if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/krantz/if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4x830wraqz", "prob": 0.5460535652294758, "text": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 4, "poolNo": 109.67693839261675, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.17687042103996, "textFts": "'/eliezeryudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/eliezeryudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.04605356522947579}, {"id": "wfuzv8wa3m", "prob": 0.3081503994232452, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 5, "poolNo": 66.73835845464117, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 149.83886675601286, "textFts": "'/bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.19184960057675482}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.19184960057675482}, {"id": "k3yh35raps", "prob": 0.5, "text": "https://manifold.markets/AllisonDuettmann/will-one-person-currently-alive-rea?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 6, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'/allisonduettmann/will-one-person-currently-alive-rea?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/allisonduettmann/will-one-person-currently-alive-rea?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "h1u1vfcw4q", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "https://manifold.markets/AllisonDuettmann/will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 7, "poolNo": 83.76501977404413, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 119.38157511303605, "textFts": "'/allisonduettmann/will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/allisonduettmann/will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740475}, {"id": "vf5qvowsnx", "prob": 0.2800000000000004, "text": "https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 8, "poolNo": 62.36095644623245, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 160.35674514745455, "textFts": "'/quantumobserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/quantumobserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.21999999999999958}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.21999999999999958}, {"id": "gcmvsfne8o", "prob": 0.3089537768937234, "text": "https://manifold.markets/nick/which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 9, "poolNo": 66.86413113178102, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 149.55701705434888, "textFts": "'/nick/which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/nick/which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718248479804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1910462231062766}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.1910462231062766}, {"id": "gw2w92gre2", "prob": 0.20161067576531358, "text": "https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-will-be-the-most-popular-manif?r=S3JhbnR6", "index": 10, "poolNo": 50.25154306601208, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 198.99886431076675, "textFts": "'/plasmaballin/what-will-be-the-most-popular-manif?r=s3jhbnr6':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/plasmaballin/what-will-be-the-most-popular-manif?r=s3jhbnr6':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718249168078, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29838932423468645}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.29838932423468645}, {"id": "0z2wp6sbp9", "prob": 0.4417090752746286, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/at-the-end-of-the-year-will-manifol-6d7e0871f43b?r=Sm9zaHVh", "index": 11, "poolNo": 88.94834605214004, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 112.42479982863503, "textFts": "'/bayesian/at-the-end-of-the-year-will-manifol-6d7e0871f43b?r=sm9zahvh':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/bayesian/at-the-end-of-the-year-will-manifol-6d7e0871f43b?r=sm9zahvh':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718251705271, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.058290924725371396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.058290924725371396}, {"id": "ihrdqeetgn", "prob": 0.3116126242455588, "text": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500?r=Sm9zaHVh", "index": 12, "poolNo": 67.28078860872529, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 148.6308381156987, "textFts": "'/joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500?r=sm9zahvh':3 'manifold.markets':2 'manifold.markets/joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500?r=sm9zahvh':1", "contractId": "V4gbzGDHdhNHuFWjtxZe", "createdTime": 1718254080953, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1883873757544412}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.1883873757544412}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718248479970}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718249394023}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | 1720022491972 | 1718290796019 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | mo4byGwRQanUykZFWdwl | {"NO": 111.70360738078354, "YES": 89.52262361511075} | 0.5551145436057124 | will-shaka-return | 361.63110065922695 | Will Shaka return? | 1735714740000 | cgKXa2RuAIfZiJJSdFeksXGwFvD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718248902636 | Elocho Shabani | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Shaka return by the end of the Egghead Arc", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04511454360571243, "month": 0.05511454360571244} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.10521616933344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ElochoShabani | 1719711704943 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocId20ZLkOOif7NhjcWFi36YzSrSU44FOqFyIvDT71b0T9m3UhuAcw=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718241871009 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1718248902787}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719711701845 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.874970068853874 | lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ | {"NO": 11731.916334388457, "YES": 9363.50331608791} | 0.897626855332394 | will-boeings-starliner-return-with | 57323.63490865148 | Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut? | 1722445140000 | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.359139586204986 | False | plus | public | 1718252313809 | Timothy Bandors | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "iffy docking", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gizmodo.com/watch-boeing-starliner-dock-iss-astronauts-1851521917", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In an update shared on Monday, NASA ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "revealed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blogs.nasa.gov/boeing-crew-flight-test/2024/06/10/nasa-boeing-progress-on-testing-starliner-with-crew-at-space-station/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that the Starliner teams are assessing the impact that five helium leaks would have on the remainder of the mission. “While Starliner is docked, all the manifolds are closed per normal mission operations preventing helium loss from the tanks,” the space agency wrote.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Source:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves yes if the currently docked Starliner returns with an astronaut. It could be any of the people on the ISS onboard. This market resolves NO if it undocks with no astronaut.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "FINE PRINT: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If Starliner undocks, a mission critical error happens and they redock, the market is extended. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If it explodes and kills them, still resolves YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0023731446676060752, "week": -0.004707849708460277, "month": 0.39762685533239395} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 639.088850406652, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 10000 | TimothyBandors | 1720242124785 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | 92 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690819422060 | 0 | [{"name": "Boeing", "slug": "boeing", "groupId": "0ad5d059-21c2-4821-a1a8-6f54dd5b3462", "createdTime": 1718252313971}, {"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1718252313984}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1718252313976}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718252313985}] | ["boeing", "starliner", "spacex", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242121632 | 1720005610544 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | e8658S8Jl257zxcCAAQL | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-ai-presidents-discuss-ai-align | 0 | Will "AI presidents discuss AI alignment agendas" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718252381653 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI presidents discuss AI alignment agendas", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7M2iHPLaNzPNXHuMv/ai-presidents-discuss-ai-alignment-agendas", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718252381799 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718252381799}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | i4vr0mPBbyry6Yt7zynz | {"NO": 70.05901879617353, "YES": 142.7367978003452} | 0.32923118469482016 | will-i-gain-a-romantic-partner-at-v | 56.401506051331474 | Will I gain a romantic partner at vibecamp? | 1750132740000 | WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718253131896 | Pi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We both have to accept the label of \"romantic partner\" for it to count, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the relationship must last at least n months after vibecamp ends, where n is some integer less than or equal to 12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is a sha512 hash of a sentence containing n: 26cbda8df6fd359cf7074699a7ac0940746b97f5533579be6f7d72ec5be75a48f3a52c853a131af67931112afbc733cdb6ec1f28aec38df56cc9bbd8a37589ab", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not trade on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.17076881530517984} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6430497554733812, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | mudPi314 | 1719636146843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1688590877752 | 0 | [{"name": "Vibecamp", "slug": "vibecamp", "groupId": "d1e873dd-c328-4a3f-a39a-64b5da070546", "createdTime": 1718253132043}, {"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1718253132045}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1718253132045}] | ["vibecamp", "dating", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719636143718 | 1718291006510 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | OIgGeQvjLD5T9k6HTG7e | {"NO": 837.6411339063393, "YES": 1193.828669010678} | 0.4123325548347105 | will-the-straw-hat-of-luffyshanks-b | 200 | Will the Straw Hat of Luffy/Shanks be destroyed by the end of the One Piece manga? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575212821615276 | False | basic | public | 1718255650066 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766744516528951} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.171330989322148, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719181428378 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1718255650212}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1718255650210}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1718255650213}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718255650214}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718517241754}] | ["manga", "one-piece-stocks", "anime", "entertainment", "books"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719181425075 | 1718256565567 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | yDZRFHXyPQC1fpi8uESM | {"NO": 61.96812905033924, "YES": 161.37327612193332} | 0.27745920646707056 | will-civil-war-receive-a-best-pictu | 63 | Will "Civil War" receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 1738389540000 | HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718256012672 | TheSchwa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Civil War\" is A24's highest-budget movie to date and a seeming attempt to balance indie and mainstream appeal. Will the film receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Academy Awards?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.22254079353292944} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6267238780666993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TheSchwa | 1719146680960 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712888273551 | 0 | [{"name": "Oscars", "slug": "oscars", "groupId": "b86fa4c8-87ee-45d4-bf71-1cea8a0acdc3", "createdTime": 1718256012824}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718256012835}, {"name": "Academy Awards", "slug": "academy-awards", "groupId": "596832cf-ad15-46db-b4e9-c51ccd5e95d2", "createdTime": 1718256012837}] | ["oscars", "entertainment", "academy-awards"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719146677787 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | LfZ8n8XzyC3Yvl1DUo94 | {"NO": 20.166815240280897, "YES": 495.86411542196026} | 0.039080632655876045 | will-joe-biden-go-on-the-impaulsive | 400 | Will Joe Biden go on the Impaulsive podcast with Logan Paul (Trump's probability: <1%) before the 2024 election? | 1730879940000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718256040095 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump stating his probability: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/alx/status/1801117282304753863", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/alx/status/1801117282304753863", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.460919367344124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.135884578039773, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jacksonpolack | 1719558170534 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718256040248}] | ["the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719558167447 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | MjYdLcNhZ3cMS0oyvKlo | {"NO": 1094.582117253896, "YES": 573.9882493179001} | 0.23689638866107937 | will-my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-vdgg4nh6bk | 100 | Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84785943537316 | False | public | 1718257182915 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fJRPB6CF6uPKMLWi/my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-christiano", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.09689638866107936} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.417882746103986, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718678714192 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718257183126}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718678711105 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | x9EU4b63due3PBH98PqI | {"NO": 1189.6997523146745, "YES": 344.03213109942556} | 0.36018327276726564 | will-my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-msltzai2et | 200 | Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.821556946192333 | False | public | 1718257184211 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fJRPB6CF6uPKMLWi/my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-christiano", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.22018327276726563, "month": 0.22018327276726563} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.300247685325438, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719704681621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718257184359}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719704678541 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000049 | 2N0pMWAZWaF1Z99P4Wax | {"NO": 9938.44153994904, "YES": 100.61939751623613} | 1 | is-a-tropical-storm-forming-in-the | 30904.34852741862 | Is a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico? (June 2024) | 1718837081490 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849784655385939 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718258018295 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Beginning June 12, 2024, the NHC tracked an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "area of low pressure (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=202406121148&basin=atl&fdays=7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "archived", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=202406121148&basin=atl&fdays=7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=202406121148&basin=atl&fdays=7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If this particular disturbance strengthens and forms a named system (such as Tropical Storm Alberto), the market resolves YES. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves NO if the disturbance dissipates before that point.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 590.5375833533963, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718837081490 | 1000 | thepurplebull | 1718844089269 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | [{"name": "Hurricanes", "slug": "hurricanes", "groupId": "e0cd552d-e41d-4d09-9941-773bc201b8ab", "createdTime": 1718258018503}, {"name": "2024 Hurricane Season", "slug": "2024-hurricane-season", "groupId": "c02acce6-d125-4a24-9704-1798a5fb2f09", "createdTime": 1718258018510}, {"name": "Extreme Weather", "slug": "extreme-weather", "groupId": "211601b5-4d33-4531-ae59-93cb57e4aa94", "createdTime": 1718258018511}] | ["hurricanes", "2024-hurricane-season", "extreme-weather"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718831048608 | 1718844087878 | 0.99 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Mk8pwirktJ053p8EIh02 | {"NO": 468.37767456488496, "YES": 2135.0291747551487} | 0.17990951920834714 | will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch | 2056.7718064412315 | Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61068980689982 | False | basic | public | 1718261765292 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UCPiSJLIV8FUDz2Wfna4", "label": "/strutheo/will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch-zfs42fqgls"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.32009048079165286} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.012623501689156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718407453458 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718261765435}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1718261765433}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718261765436}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718261765437}, {"name": "🏳️🌈 LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1718261765453}] | ["gaming", "board-games", "chess", "culture-default", "lgbtqia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718407450407 | 1718304414175 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | UCPiSJLIV8FUDz2Wfna4 | {"NO": 648.0696223689973, "YES": 1543.0440889121344} | 0.29577178903694373 | will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch-zfs42fqgls | 936 | Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.5997855322273 | False | basic | public | 1718261793510 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Mk8pwirktJ053p8EIh02", "label": "/strutheo/will-there-be-a-transgender-fide-ch"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.20422821096305627} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.22935186239479, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718359556851 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718261793637}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1718261793635}, {"name": "🏳️🌈 LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1718261793644}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718261793645}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718261793647}] | ["gaming", "board-games", "lgbtqia", "culture-default", "chess"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718359553801 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gAoCIAnM2wFVn61kNjMq | {"NO": 97.62495685702795, "YES": 102.43282375678821} | 0.48798380426642546 | will-keir-starmer-be-uk-prime-minis | 125 | Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031? | 1956527940000 | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718264621019 | Ponti Min | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Keir Starmer is UK Prime Minister on 31 December 2031.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Note that if there is a general election in the summer of 2029, then the end of 2031 will be 2.5 years into that parliament. However, Starmer doesn't have to be PM for all that period to resolve YES, merely be PM on 31 Dec 2031).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012016195733574542} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.130163205504651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PontiMin | 1718362425946 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715223406669 | 0 | [{"name": "Keir Starmer", "slug": "keir-starmer", "groupId": "5c9bc649-d490-49f3-85b2-7ffc29cd3855", "createdTime": 1718264621211}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1718264621213}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1718264755505}] | ["keir-starmer", "uk-politics", "labour-party-uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718362422845 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | 9C9H9zD0v9kDY5ctmwez | {"NO": 1128.1521496355338, "YES": 886.4052604279186} | 0.56 | will-keir-starmer-be-uk-prime-minis-x7ciap9k0w | 578.8825154640531 | Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030? | 1893455940000 | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.563689129376392 | False | basic | public | 1718264728716 | Ponti Min | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Keir Starmer is UK Prime Minister on 31 December 2030.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.009740395437640825, "week": 0.027515416436657558, "month": 0.06000000000000005} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.464269748180854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PontiMin | 1720135325964 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715223406669 | 0 | [{"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1718264728853}, {"name": "Keir Starmer", "slug": "keir-starmer", "groupId": "5c9bc649-d490-49f3-85b2-7ffc29cd3855", "createdTime": 1718264728856}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1718264728862}] | ["labour-party-uk", "keir-starmer", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720135322837 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fYDbHIOVdU73pslixPu7 | in-the-context-of-financial-world-i | 0 | In the context of financial world, is “pundit” a term of | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718265616049 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Krypton | 1718265616214 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718265616189}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1718265616192}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718265616214}] | ["economics-default", "finance", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | asipPSfytvLZ2NCQu6Fw | {"NO": 2554.310074335722, "YES": 391.49514776903504} | 1 | should-i-ask-out-my-crushwho-also-h | 2395.253134914672 | Should i ask out my crush?
Who also happens to be my best friend 🙂 | 1718830393324 | UAybp5Bg2JWQFmKZCqv1DEllms23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.71205455304031 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718271798505 | Madhav Kumar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We have been friends for 3 plus years kinda best friend….i like her a lot🥹", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But i’m afraid i’ll lose her….uk the friendship ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.63378710252627, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718830393324 | 1000 | MadhavKumar | 1719117027847 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715624196614 | 0 | [{"name": "Love", "slug": "love", "groupId": "0523af53-e688-479a-94e2-f24516eb875c", "createdTime": 1718271799018}, {"name": "loveproblemsolution", "slug": "loveproblemsolution", "groupId": "tmQcQqbl09c42kASIiw0", "createdTime": 1718271799104}, {"name": "Bet on Love", "slug": "bet-on-love", "groupId": "a70117bb-5f27-4244-9823-3cc6a34ad223", "createdTime": 1718271799102}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1718271799105}] | ["love", "loveproblemsolution", "bet-on-love", "sex-and-love"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718826610541 | 1719117026444 | 0.87 | UAybp5Bg2JWQFmKZCqv1DEllms23 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cHf9iAkKTgy8ZtYBXvHb | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | will-there-be-a-type-ii-supernova-i | 0 | Will there be a Type II supernova in the Triangulum galaxy (NGC 0598) visible from Earth on August 22nd, 2024? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718272755914 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes telescopic observations.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JackHammer | 1718354621283 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2B3qBoaBU35dvFMt2sYXHVggM4vLiYC6-aK9x9W-MMeDuVA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | [{"name": "Astronomy", "slug": "astronomy", "groupId": "RmJECKggoxP8lVO7JADZ", "createdTime": 1718272756080}] | ["astronomy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718354620248 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0p24kyNnQX6jTfwua71V | {"NO": 108.62777588986917, "YES": 92.05748638486699} | 0.5412842709952403 | french-snap-election-2024-macrons-p | 63.47055076792915 | [French Snap Election 2024] Macron's party Renaissance in less than 70 second round races | 1719611940000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718274918981 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NB: There are 577 races (and therefore seats) in total. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if, after the official results of the first round of the 2024 French snap legislative election, to be held on June 30th, the party of Macron, Renaissance, and/or any parties in an electoral union that contain the Renaisance party (nb: an electoral union will count if it has a single candidate for the union in each race), if the union was declared before the first round, has candidate remaining in less than 70 seats/race. Resolves No otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the second round usually has two candidate, but can have three or even four if certain vote threshold are met (basically, if there really is about the same number of vote among the three or four - but the rule is a little convoluted and kinda rare, there were 8 last time), in which case candidate from Macron's party in such \"triangulaire\" or \"quandrangulaire\" would count for this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not binding flavor text: the spirit of the question is whether Macron's party will be functionally wiped from the national assembly, which some polls/results based on European election results suggest (but European election are national level, whereas seats are local and therefore personalities and local dynamics make this much more difficult to gage from polls)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.041284270995240346} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1277875842693623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CamillePerrin | 1719592225430 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1718274919126}, {"name": "french politics", "slug": "french-politics", "groupId": "4002952c-770b-4379-abac-1a06ae257160", "createdTime": 1718274919130}, {"name": "French Legislative Snap Election 2024", "slug": "french-legislative-snap-election-20", "groupId": "f8dd9c6a-824c-42df-bfbe-0cf9747da112", "createdTime": 1718274919136}] | ["france", "french-politics", "french-legislative-snap-election-20"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719592221272 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0XiVrYYwGTm6T51xSvkq | what-is-your-opinion-about-betrayal | 0 | What is your opinion about betrayal? | 8SD1VS3Xi1R9NCAzvnBPjwWAUZL2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718276087088 | Тысячеглазый Шалун | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Shalun | 1718276087244 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672819535989 | 0 | [{"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1718276087224}, {"name": "Ethics", "slug": "ethics", "groupId": "8423af51-efe9-4061-82de-f61c3ebeac6a", "createdTime": 1718276087228}, {"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime": 1718276087244}] | ["philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "ethics", "psychology"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp | what-will-happen-to-cabinet-wilders | 1888.0554418704364 | What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES] | 1861916340000 | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718276321461 | The Wabi Sabi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.212208457579422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1041 | 1900 | TheWabiSabi | 1720242956654 | 0 | 7 | 6 | ANYONE | [{"id": "q6cchdcy8d", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Formation will succeed before the 7th of July", "index": 0, "poolNo": 324.62921221783114, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.279082951695278, "textFts": "'7th':6 'format':1 'juli':8 'succeed':3", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "createdTime": 1718276321461, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.018157988023298044, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.018157988023298044, "resolutionTime": 1720117499738, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "juj6d1be6o", "prob": 0.6280914740013197, "text": "If Schoof 1 falls, NSC will be responsible.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 108.37113197839736, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.16923270448585, "textFts": "'1':3 'fall':4 'nsc':5 'respons':8 'schoof':2", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718276321461, "probChanges": {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 0.1280914740013197}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": 2.220446049250313e-16, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.1280914740013197}, {"id": "rzeyygtvg7", "prob": 0.0917087660473878, "text": "Geert Wilders will visit Biden", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.65420054702842, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 164.944585096024, "textFts": "'biden':5 'geert':1 'visit':4 'wilder':2", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718276321461, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02372455401243552, "week": -0.02372455401243552, "month": -0.4082912339526122}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02372455401243552, "probChangeWeek": -0.02372455401243552, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.4082912339526122}, {"id": "fm73ep1fpg", "prob": 0.09082086399319905, "text": "Dick Stoof will join a party", "index": 3, "poolNo": 15.481608880880687, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 154.98152260881753, "textFts": "'dick':1 'join':4 'parti':6 'stoof':2", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718276321461, "probChanges": {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -0.40917913600680095}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 4.163336342344337e-17, "probChangeWeek": 4.163336342344337e-17, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.40917913600680095}, {"id": "7rk2dnfdnv", "prob": 0.9235246513316244, "text": "Cabinet will fall before 31 december 2025", "index": 4, "poolNo": 110.63304943113428, "userId": "TgDlkZzmlRV4ac8HrHRp0RCU3MC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.161315853661499, "textFts": "'2025':7 '31':5 'cabinet':1 'decemb':6 'fall':3", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718276754503, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4235246513316244}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.4235246513316244}, {"id": "5syrtpkrcu", "prob": 0.040969671921604334, "text": "Cabinet will not fall early", "index": 5, "poolNo": 3.6431768740657247, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 85.28057338287948, "textFts": "'cabinet':1 'earli':5 'fall':4", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718281053290, "probChanges": {"day": 0.030969671921604304, "week": 0.030969671921604304, "month": -0.45903032807839567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.030969671921604304, "probChangeWeek": 0.030969671921604304, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.45903032807839567}, {"id": "sj7podwlbj", "prob": 0.4055610877810007, "text": "The first Minister will resign within the first three months ", "index": 6, "poolNo": 50.154321278227606, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.51218122733447, "textFts": "'first':2,8 'minist':3 'month':10 'resign':5 'three':9 'within':6", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718299491570, "probChanges": {"day": 0.09675700503929713, "week": 0.36801027527578284, "month": -0.0944389122189993}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.09675700503929713, "probChangeWeek": 0.36801027527578284, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.0944389122189993}, {"id": "zh4mb63lv", "prob": 0.6606769581499896, "text": "Marjolein Faber will be replaced as minister of Immigration ", "index": 7, "poolNo": 89.83600548413582, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.139684867911974, "textFts": "'faber':2 'immigr':9 'marjolein':1 'minist':7 'replac':5", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718360043564, "probChanges": {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 0.20751817107166043, "month": 0.1606769581499896}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.220446049250313e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.20751817107166043, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.1606769581499896}, {"id": "rjwtaaojws", "prob": 0.7024418408887743, "text": "Immigration will fall by at least 20% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)", "index": 8, "poolNo": 84.67254053775582, "userId": "108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.86774565963628, "textFts": "'20':7 '2023':16 'compar':14 'fall':3 'full':12 'immigr':1 'least':6 'seen':9 'year':13", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718617239289, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03644679358583669, "week": -0.03644679358583669, "month": 0.20244184088877426}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03644679358583669, "probChangeWeek": -0.03644679358583669, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0.20244184088877426}, {"id": "etkao9jsbz", "prob": 0.20372262721397538, "text": "Immigration will fall by at least 30% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)", "index": 9, "poolNo": 24.472129780948645, "userId": "108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.6526207959468, "textFts": "'2023':16 '30':7 'compar':14 'fall':3 'full':12 'immigr':1 'least':6 'seen':9 'year':13", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1718617255950, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2962773727860246}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.2962773727860246}, {"id": "207wj95438", "prob": 0.37530116885977655, "text": "Dick Schoof will visit the USA in the first 6 months of the cabinet ", "index": 10, "poolNo": 43.28444788856689, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.04812093894779, "textFts": "'6':10 'cabinet':14 'dick':1 'first':9 'month':11 'schoof':2 'usa':6 'visit':4", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1719564950922, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05480494292994925, "week": -0.3661865946404727, "month": -0.17779921888603162}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.05480494292994925, "probChangeWeek": -0.3661865946404727, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.17779921888603162}, {"id": "260tst68db", "prob": 0.31161262424555886, "text": "Someone from the cabinet will literally fall", "index": 11, "poolNo": 41.07777783379876, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 90.74543675274639, "textFts": "'cabinet':4 'fall':7 'liter':6 'someon':1", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1719565122722, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.18838737575444114}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -5.551115123125783e-17, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.18838737575444114}, {"id": "lon0p80pyk", "prob": 0.031441089769202166, "text": "Pieter Omtzigt needs time off for recovery (longer than 1 month)", "index": 12, "poolNo": 11.000226899963081, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 338.867636482376, "textFts": "'1':10 'longer':8 'month':11 'need':3 'omtzigt':2 'pieter':1 'recoveri':7 'time':4", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1719565210447, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2801715344763567, "week": -0.2801715344763567, "month": -0.4685589102307978}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2801715344763567, "probChangeWeek": -0.2801715344763567, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.4685589102307978}, {"id": "g25l2xpkmv", "prob": 0.05999652846295128, "text": "Somebody gets hit in the House of Representatives ", "index": 13, "poolNo": 7.369634321319369, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 115.46471143370584, "textFts": "'get':2 'hit':3 'hous':6 'repres':8 'somebodi':1", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720117275223, "probChanges": {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.4400034715370487, "month": -0.4400034715370487}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.4400034715370487, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.4400034715370487}, {"id": "a0v7lpgf2n", "prob": 0.47264003443059555, "text": "A message on X will be the downfall of Cabinet-Schoof ", "index": 14, "poolNo": 81.30469189264078, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 90.71774795545866, "textFts": "'cabinet':11 'cabinet-schoof':10 'downfal':8 'messag':2 'schoof':12 'x':4", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720117327645, "probChanges": {"day": -0.027359965569404454, "week": -0.027359965569404454, "month": -0.027359965569404454}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.027359965569404454, "probChangeWeek": -0.027359965569404454, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.027359965569404454}, {"id": "g814417y8a", "prob": 0.04213445524186373, "text": "PVV will become a party with members ", "index": 15, "poolNo": 31.681034303834565, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 720.2222268627437, "textFts": "'becom':3 'member':7 'parti':5 'pvv':1", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720117406129, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2694781690036951, "week": -0.4578655447581363, "month": -0.4578655447581363}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2694781690036951, "probChangeWeek": -0.4578655447581363, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.4578655447581363}, {"id": "6qvxxu8l5s", "prob": 0.6400817784630997, "text": "The cabinet will fall before Christmas 2024", "index": 16, "poolNo": 234.551428284848, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.8883551566201, "textFts": "'2024':7 'cabinet':2 'christma':6 'fall':4", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720117468031, "probChanges": {"day": 0.14008177846309966, "week": 0.14008177846309966, "month": 0.14008177846309966}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.14008177846309966, "probChangeWeek": 0.14008177846309966, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.14008177846309966}, {"id": "viw0eo7eax", "prob": 0.28744492817005435, "text": "One or more cabinet members will give up there second passport ", "index": 17, "poolNo": 63.51380147597199, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 157.44609466940997, "textFts": "'cabinet':4 'give':7 'member':5 'one':1 'passport':11 'second':10", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720190940846, "probChanges": {"day": -0.21255507182994565, "week": -0.21255507182994565, "month": -0.21255507182994565}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.21255507182994565, "probChangeWeek": -0.21255507182994565, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.21255507182994565}, {"id": "e5y26muum8", "prob": 0.6068622659942715, "text": "BBB won't solve the manure issue for farmers before 2025", "index": 18, "poolNo": 124.2432210587677, "userId": "T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.48728868088463, "textFts": "'2025':11 'bbb':1 'farmer':9 'issu':7 'manur':6 'solv':4 'won':2", "contractId": "btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp", "createdTime": 1720191357436, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10686226599427151, "week": 0.10686226599427151, "month": 0.10686226599427151}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.10686226599427151, "probChangeWeek": 0.10686226599427151, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.10686226599427151}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697631332267 | 0 | [{"name": "Dutch politics", "slug": "dutch-politics", "groupId": "cdb1cd7d-eb22-40c2-889a-a9239dbacb23", "createdTime": 1718276321615}, {"name": "Dutch coalition", "slug": "dutch-coalition", "groupId": "2c495961-23f3-435f-8ce5-377a238f59a4", "createdTime": 1718276321616}, {"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1718276321617}, {"name": "2023 Dutch Tweede Kamer Election", "slug": "2023-dutch-tweede-kamer-election", "groupId": "74f597c6-8c58-4e88-8ec7-6b9ff1d540de", "createdTime": 1718276321620}, {"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1718276321625}] | ["dutch-politics", "dutch-coalition", "the-netherlands", "2023-dutch-tweede-kamer-election", "nederland"] | 0.25 | 1720242953557 | 1720191127819 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 4EuHVyZITJKlSpyXFYDq | {"NO": 382.8718323008343, "YES": 2611.840087557732} | 0.12784930322076415 | metaculus-will-the-highest-elo-llm | 2270 | [Metaculus] Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | 1735837200000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.71911849558404 | False | public | 1718278378190 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22541/best-llm-open-source-in-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22541/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, at any point during 2024, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed as the highest Arena Elo model on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "chat.lmsys.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no non-proprietary model has reached the top rank by 2025, this question will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22541/best-llm-open-source-in-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.37215069677923585} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.12112922114695, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1719244979850 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1718278378338}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719244976343 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd | which-2024-manifesto-commitments-wi | 1926.4397406918254 | Which 2024 Labour Manifesto Commitments will be achieved in this Parliament? | 1956527940000 | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718278622795 | Noit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Policies as set out in Labour’s July 2024 manifesto. Resolve YES at the point there Office for National Statistics or a similar independent agency provides evidence that the target has been met. Otherwise resolves NO when Parliament is dissolved for the first general election held after 4th July 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All resolve based on achievements of Parliament regardless of parliamentary makeup, i.e. all targets remain in place if the Conservatives win or if there is a hung parliament. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.74634802282113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | Noit | 1719962592897 | 0 | 23 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bx6a4ewbms", "prob": 0.27624797055016925, "text": ">=1.5 million new homes built", "index": 0, "poolNo": 102.96826628770282, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 269.77027757429744, "textFts": "'1.5':1 'built':5 'home':4 'million':2 'new':3", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.22375202944983075}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.22375202944983075}, {"id": "xk2cewwylp", "prob": 0.4121124382228428, "text": "UK energy independence from fossil fuels", "index": 1, "poolNo": 139.5434560833272, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 199.06184465712613, "textFts": "'energi':2 'fossil':5 'fuel':6 'independ':3 'uk':1", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08788756177715717}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.08788756177715717}, {"id": "hkj4jl4von", "prob": 0.10022421151961265, "text": "Violent crime halved", "index": 2, "poolNo": 55.62473081884342, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.37819687152154, "textFts": "'crime':2 'halv':3 'violent':1", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4044961570575062}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.4044961570575062}, {"id": "k80akn1eeq", "prob": 0.8331257790311858, "text": "Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation", "index": 3, "poolNo": 372.3997754268777, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.59128498650792, "textFts": "'equal':6 'foundat':12 'level':5 'minimum':1 'recommend':8 'resolut':11 'set':3 'wage':2", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3331257790311858}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.3331257790311858}, {"id": "vzx307g4dt", "prob": 0.4102862744748323, "text": ">=40k increase in weekly GP appointments", "index": 4, "poolNo": 139.01818875262936, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 199.8139813719332, "textFts": "'40k':1 'appoint':6 'gp':5 'increas':2 'week':4", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08971372552516771}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.08971372552516771}, {"id": "tdl0nbe9lq", "prob": 0.5697336621827156, "text": "National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital", "index": 5, "poolNo": 191.78560400279832, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.8376582914559, "textFts": "'7.3':7 'billion':8 'capit':10 'establish':4 'fund':3 'grant':6 'nation':1 'seed':9 'wealth':2", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718278622795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0697336621827156}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.0697336621827156}, {"id": "a8zderh91t", "prob": 0.33192223430677475, "text": "House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting", "index": 6, "poolNo": 70.48629180892786, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 141.8715574811014, "textFts": "'hereditari':4 'hous':1 'lord':3 'peer':5 'prevent':6 'sit':8 'vote':10", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718279479713, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.16807776569322525}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 5.551115123125783e-17, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.16807776569322525}, {"id": "0gle7ehe9f", "prob": 0.8069470189599808, "text": "Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds", "index": 7, "poolNo": 204.44865352019644, "userId": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.91203648358649, "textFts": "'16':5 '17':7 'extend':3 'franchis':2 'old':9 'vote':1 'year':8", "contractId": "7sj882Nmyo0v5tDfn1cd", "createdTime": 1718279531208, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3069470189599808}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.3069470189599808}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714464978295 | 0 | [{"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1718278623497}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1718278623495}, {"name": "United Kingdom", "slug": "united-kingdom", "groupId": "c5bf9671-57a6-4372-a23a-601bcdc30f42", "createdTime": 1718278623498}, {"name": "59th UK Parliament", "slug": "uk-parliament-2024", "groupId": "66054143-9aad-4631-8890-b2bd904517de", "createdTime": 1718278623499}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1718278623498}] | ["labour-party-uk", "uk", "united-kingdom", "uk-parliament-2024", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719962589829 | 1718320196631 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 15mN6RP27HyBkIHmEU1f | {"NO": 911.7673204000673, "YES": 1096.7710485184068} | 0.45394568234761745 | will-saudi-arabia-sell-oil-to-japan | 100 | Will Saudi Arabia sell oil to Japan in JPY in 2024 | 1735657140000 | Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658407367277 | False | basic | public | 1718278677368 | Samuel Ericsson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 50-year petrodollar deal between the US and Saudi ended on June 9th, 2024. Saudi Arabia will allegedly not renew the deal, which could allow it to sell oil in currencies other than the USD.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes, if Saudi Arabia accepts JPY (from Japan) in exchange for oil at any point in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelEricsson | 1718404104366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKfk85x4jDIGZitriXgI5kTsOKn58xuCP_plTiNVEtD1zhWPA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716780772133 | 0 | [{"name": "Oil", "slug": "oil", "groupId": "Vx2nzG7CiHDmLsYhRf9T", "createdTime": 1718278677520}, {"name": "🇯🇵 Japan", "slug": "japan", "groupId": "H5HOzbMpcIAwGLGICGAQ", "createdTime": 1718278677521}, {"name": "Saudi Arabia", "slug": "saudi-arabia", "groupId": "O9eynTpwvlmkSUgytLJr", "createdTime": 1718278677522}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1718278677523}] | ["oil", "japan", "saudi-arabia", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718404101275 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qjykekeVXsj3TV0saYPi | {"NO": 76.03001123117109, "YES": 131.52700937521575} | 0.3663090316533072 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-lm7ia6urvq | 136.77792207055026 | Will we get fusion drives before 2042? | 2277673140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718279745476 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2042, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. The drive must be used on a spacecraft with a minimum total mass (including the drive itself) of 10,000 kg. Additionally, the fusion drive must deliver a minimum average thrust of 1,000 newtons over the 24-hour period. The fusion reactor on the drive must operate at an energy gain factor (Q_E) of at least 1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1POAjNdKNP9YOEvUk9Pf", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "W6fLhATNM4rwcTwEsxRe", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-cx6kfkmvxf"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qjykekeVXsj3TV0saYPi", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-lm7ia6urvq"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wvfgn7dp2i", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-zumqdsi62x"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "90my0q1t5w", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-gxkevaibpj"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wf1tfix1no", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-gcx4mf6u2y"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7fulb34s03", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-p9kpb7besw"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kxq3b5di6y", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-zd8a508550"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tmspHWmlYCTvQfhhaq42", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UgTyIp9sqtvuCvUthPeC", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "6038xu8iaXKbZblSYIZ9", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "su42Wpbdf9P81HulJMrv", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "lBsxMGbbI6pnbT0bbPPt", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sFlwFRKqVhlCjkXj2nFI", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "emn9qCZv3srnSrxe4gyt", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hti7Z3LOoOnhwWDSqXX2", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "STAoRuC1KynnFnGA65Ps", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rXUcLQfL4TyB9OdQPdTf", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hvK3DlejWES7V3Ec1jg8", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jvqWmOkASwB8OJthJnlW", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mOBk4tUEzJNeNmiVuPNu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "d5oNHVjd34QGmzb5RVv6", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1mjKRjLeT7PTmpFdewXu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related numeric markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DkQUfYCxltklHqLKfIXM", "label": "/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For further context on fusion drives, refer to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fusion Rocket - Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_rocket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.011289661345234292, "month": -0.1336909683466928} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.824712038461314, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719833655521 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Fusion Drives", "slug": "fusion-drives", "groupId": "feb14a7b-81e3-4056-8985-7b59218da4b8", "createdTime": 1718279745642}, {"name": "Propulsion", "slug": "propulsion", "groupId": "9d85259d-13f6-4238-8860-817a345ae893", "createdTime": 1718279745640}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1718279745646}, {"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1718279745660}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718279745664}] | ["fusion-drives", "propulsion", "rockets", "fusion-energy", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719833652437 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | N0Y6Ae0X1Hs4DMakSCGA | {"NO": 4358.8989435403455, "YES": 229.41573387057832} | 1 | will-i-get-out-of-jury-duty-within | 10355.272340166308 | Will I get out of Jury Duty within 2 days? | 1718655254750 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.902799642857893 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718279885532 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been called to Jury Duty on Monday, June 17, 2024 at 9am. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it all be over within two days?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I am fully dismissed by end of day on Tuesday, June 18, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I am not known to be done after Tuesday, and have to plan to come back on Wednesday or any later day during this round of service.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have never served on a jury. I have been questioned in voir dire once. I do not intend to attempt to actively get out of service and have no excuses. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Yes this originally said July by accident, but youknowwhatImeant.]", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 105.84865202414294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718655254750 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1718655280647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718655246861 | 1718655279371 | 0.95 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ | {"NO": 126.77426902989367, "YES": 78.88036015922107} | 0.6164425742797907 | will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before | 274.4931871256689 | Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718281160203 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic hearts have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic heart is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. This definition includes, but is not limited to, biological hearts grown on scaffolds from the patient's stem cells, mechanical hearts that do not contain biological cells and synthetic hearts that have both biological and mechanical components.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Successful implantation is defined as the organ continuing to operate for at least 12 months subsequent to the operation. If multiple operations are required, then this clock starts at the final operation. A healthy threshold of operation is not defined for this question, only that the transplant is still considered functional and the clinicians do not consider it appropriate to remove it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These synthetic organs must have been completely implanted into the human, and cannot have significant components located outside of the patient's body. However, these devices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " allowed to have external ports such as electrical sockets and tubes for fluids. The devices must be able to operate autonomously for a period of at least 12 hours without being connected to these external ports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Various forms of maintenance over the 12 month duration are permitted, provided the synthetic hearts are not removed from the patient's body during these operations. Removing and replacing components of the organs is permitted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.12815664795694326, "month": 0.11644257427979066} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.5619213395953, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719912333427 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718281160475}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718281160489}, {"name": "Transplants", "slug": "transplants", "groupId": "154a97c9-e22f-4869-ac4a-9cb5bd0d18bb", "createdTime": 1718532631791}, {"name": "Synthetic Organs", "slug": "synthetic-organs", "groupId": "c291e83e-23fe-4420-8782-1a71fb514a1e", "createdTime": 1718532641296}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1718532691379}] | ["science-default", "medicine", "transplants", "synthetic-organs", "biotech"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912330130 | 1718291494465 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ERrvzcpQqsnoPNYdho4Q | {"NO": 1131.5767455125335, "YES": 883.7226498031894} | 0.5614931201501489 | will-any-realclearpolitics-battlegr | 1500.5195090994764 | Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election? | 1733086740000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.083772691966869 | False | basic | public | 1718281804056 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market battleground state - WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, NC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RealClearPolitics average - 5-way candidate polling average published on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "realclearpolling.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://realclearpolling.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " e.g ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsin/trump-vs-biden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsin/trump-vs-biden", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The “final polling average” is the last published 5-way candidate polling average on RealClearPolitics before the election date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To determine the outcome, I will compare the final RealClearPolitics polling average for the top two candidates to the actual election results in each of the specified battleground states. If the difference between the final polling average and the actual election results is 6 or more percentage points for the top two candidates in at least one of these states, the answer will be “Yes.”", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For example, if the final RealClearPolitics polling average in Georgia shows Trump +1.2 but Trump wins the state by 7.5 points the difference would be 6.3 points resolving to YES. Or If Nevada is Trump +4.5 but Biden wins by 1.6 that would also apply", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market does not consider the impact or results of third-party candidates. Only the top two candidates’ polling averages and actual results are relevant to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In cases where the margin is close to 6 points (e.g., 5.95 points), the authoritative results will be taken from the official state election results published by the respective state’s election authority.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06149312015014885} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.64480208863974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719158605839 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718281804215}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718281804220}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718281804265}, {"name": "Election margins", "slug": "election-margins", "groupId": "c584239b-b8ba-4491-855b-d02e31267ee5", "createdTime": 1718281804268}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "election-margins"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719158602819 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | uxpTKi7mbBYD1Oqafyps | {"NO": 48.77147961023702, "YES": 205.03786393023498} | 0.19215793607086035 | will-an-announcement-be-made-before-6wrca85juw | 497.5756191514217 | Will an announcement be made before 2025 that the Boeing Starliner program will be curtailed? | 1735685940000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718282889807 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boeing is under contract to provide six starliner missions to the ISS. If it's announced that Starliner will be cancelled in violation of this contract, this resolves Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's announced that it will be terminated only after completing all of its contracted ISS visits, that doesn't count as Yes — they could still change their mind after though so it's not an immediate No either.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.30784206392913965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.146179490851496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mqrius | 1719840829631 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | [{"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1718282890054}, {"name": "ISS", "slug": "iss", "groupId": "TVdR1pkdBrMNxYqSiUPg", "createdTime": 1718282890072}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718282890251}] | ["starliner", "iss", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719840829631 | 1718378715347 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | gbZVih4Lz9h7zPO4p6Uv | {"NO": 28.776245307292516, "YES": 347.5088529866618} | 0.07647458120919927 | will-elon-musk-rescue-the-starliner | 1067.747161905631 | Will Elon Musk rescue the Starliner astronauts from the International Space Station? | 1735707540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718283835053 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing \"systems checks\" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if an additional unplanned Crew Dragon is sent to the International Space Station to return astronauts to Earth. Extra people can't simply return in an existing \"Crew-X\" mission, or have more people return in a Soyuz or Dragon that is already docked at the station.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will also resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if the Polaris Dawn mission is repurposed or outfitted with additional seats.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Starliner capsule lands on Earth with both astronauts onboard, the market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", as will it if the astronauts return to Earth on a previously planned mission.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0020610153650113677, "week": -0.020287947096213774, "month": -0.42352541879080075} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.824833823480319, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5 | 100 | SteveSokolowski | 1720165051675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 19 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718283835275}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718283835278}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1718283835276}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718283835277}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1718283835280}] | ["science-default", "technology-default", "spacex", "space", "rockets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720165048563 | 1718807327410 | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.