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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-6zoqpex4oz | 3568.9138505833525 | What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 14th, 2024? | 1718337540000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718194954452 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.220048239888534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718424889937 | 1100 | EBurk | 1718337540000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "yzkouadi97", "prob": 0.76, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 255.69405408675502, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.81477448975718, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "GDcUaRxvx5C8p5HHWEnQ", "resolution":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706489499554 | 0 | [{"name": "Webcomics", "slug": "webcomics", "groupId": "tO2lKFZZPUkSUzf064Rp", "createdTime": 1718194954950}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718194954962}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1718194954959... | ["webcomics", "space", "mathematics", "xkcd", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1718298637663 | 1718376289222 | 0.23 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | {"NO": 1358.407085435661, "YES": 736.1563486539728} | 0.6485394824177624 | will-gpt4opus-report-50-score-on-ar | 19606.05615968982 | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | 1735689540000 | 5VT4z1iFyBd6zo6mLfQI6LaiT2K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.584960190055185 | False | basic | public | 1718195177074 | Lonis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "intelligence ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "as opposed to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " memorization. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.008304242935450734, "month": 0.14853948241776238} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 379.6668351841119, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lonis | 1719883837009 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYd_cPk-H_3aSUEwTf8A5matx18W-OfU4W2z0CJUw=s96-c | 48 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677290778332 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1718195177293}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1718195177302}] | ["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719883833915 | 1719163257997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB | who-will-lose-the-1m-buyin-high-rol | 5453.5868271143 | Who will lose the $1M buy-in High Roller Chess Tournament? (4th place) | 1719675115687 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1718197898430 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-1m-usd-buyin-high?r=QmlzaG9... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 74.59526923940211, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719675115687 | 1000 | BishopG | 1719675234044 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 12 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cc9o9lgbpm", "prob": 0.1711011645865022, "text": "Fabiano Caruana", "index": 0, "poolNo": 113.58362544909735, "userId": "TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 550.2553713431998, "textFts": "'caruana':2 'fabiano':1", "contractId": "CIdbng6fKkKWw4FPkOQB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquow... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1718197898588}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 1719570408940 | 1719675232821 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY | which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil | 7970.731463982202 | Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050? | 2553541140000 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718199551409 | JuJumper | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.8495070132086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 2700 | JuJumper | 1720246126203 | 0 | 40 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "13se6uxyn6", "prob": 0.55828829388086, "text": "Commercial fusion power", "index": 0, "poolNo": 281.0605003390531, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.37205130071322, "textFts": "'commerci':1 'fusion':2 'power':3", "contractId": "DEm0OW0GR1hQVdTCJFyY", "createdTime": 1718... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645481677749 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718199551588}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1718199551591}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "cre... | ["science-default", "futurism", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1720246123108 | 1719315822667 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | UNwdKvxOSLPbs05X0gUO | {"NO": 1574.4671527924852, "YES": 635.1355112276532} | 0.7125566865166194 | will-a-spacecraft-made-by-humans-la | 731 | Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050? | 2524607940000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.602612109039882 | False | basic | public | 1718200444709 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same way as the corresponding ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Metaculus question", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23750/will-a-spacecraft-land-on-jupiter-by-2050/", "clas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2125566865166194} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.73516819918442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1718263331477 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | [{"name": "NASA", "slug": "nasa", "groupId": "c6d9ce56-6640-455b-96db-3c3293d41f0f", "createdTime": 1718200445484}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1718200445483}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1718200... | ["nasa", "metaculus", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718263328012 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | CLihWjKFHEoAjyZeWwaL | {"NO": 646.234600172678, "YES": 15.474256558420166} | 1 | will-biden-lead-in-the-538-election | 2262.8007628221817 | Will Biden lead in the 538 election forecast on June 30th? | 1719806340000 | WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718200788805 | Hillary Clinton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-pr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.7861456502065817, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.56746927643496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719834953581 | 100 | HillaryClinton | 1719806340000 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713377673183 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718200789371}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718200789373}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-elect... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719803941071 | 1719834919518 | 0.98 | WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 4JXzfPSwBYh9Y1Nbkgpi | {"NO": 1956.1763209821079, "YES": 511.20136220539945} | 0.7928159253086061 | will-the-2024-iphone-pro-have-hapti | 1395.5531461460898 | Will the 2024 iPhone Pro have haptic/solid state buttons? | 1735718340000 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641612764461389 | False | basic | public | 1718201419015 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if any of the buttons (power, volume up/down, action button) are haptic or solid state (don’t use traditional switch mechanisms)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2928159253086061} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.659203537010256, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | case | 1718316114595 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1718201419735}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1718201419761}] | ["apple", "iphone"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718316111442 | 1718207546811 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | r1Tl3oUU2Ak7cp0rA8bd | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | how-unusable-will-my-lenovo-laptop | 50 | How unusable will my Lenovo laptop be by EOY 2025? | 1767214740000 | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1718201633532 | AhmedButCooler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lenovo IdeaPad Flex 5", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://psref.lenovo.com/syspool/Sys/PDF/IdeaPad/IdeaPad_Flex_5_14ITL05/IdeaPad_Flex_5_14ITL05_Spec.pdf", "class": "break-an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AhmedButCooler | 1718217876037 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714851175704 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718201634836}, {"name": "Computer hardware", "slug": "computer-hardware", "groupId": "33399837-c917-4655-bfe5-61341a014587", "createdTime": 1718201634873}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wx... | ["technology-default", "computer-hardware", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718207732908 | 1718201651590 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF | how-high-will-bitcoin-go-by-the-end | 2797.5101528363525 | How high will Bitcoin go by the end of 2025? | 1767329940000 | DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.472685014153061 | False | basic | public | 1718202245501 | Percentage | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers will resolve yes if any major bitcoin exchange price reaches the listed amount for any amount of time (not counting bugs / incorrect values). All remaining answers will resolve NO at the end of 2025. New answers will be added as needed. All... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.38947928190011, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5000 | percentage | 1720091778693 | 0 | 15 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "djs3k9798g", "prob": 0.703742007728562, "text": "$80,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 874.5606405844263, "userId": "DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 368.16841492159415, "textFts": "'000':2 '80':1", "contractId": "pVJeUyJEZFpnyoBMXIgF", "createdTime": 1718202245501, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690864212456 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718202246307}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1718202246308}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "created... | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 1720091775289 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | bMvr53Xp3QrgpgnLytsn | {"NO": 284.7946522449799, "YES": 3511.301887578284} | 0.075023026747955 | will-grrm-announce-winds-of-winter | 3622.2984390170104 | Will GRRM announce Winds of Winter as being finished in August 2024? | 1725231540000 | 26X1LELdEdRTu4bQodxTOME4UBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.831472188634752 | False | basic | public | 1718203795907 | Johann Goode | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Book doesn’t have to be released in August, but either an announcement of having finished writing the book or a publication date chosen by end of August. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.424976973252045} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.16677871582931, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JohannGoode | 1719367751803 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdgRijy1I1H4vGkUj_RQomx24zqFkyaFMI9OBacjVrROQ=s96-c | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690659190472 | 0 | [{"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f9771ff", "createdTime": 1718203798268}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718203798267}] | ["game-of-thrones", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719367748710 | 1718460335706 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | dmZKNYV30v9xiwePvzxp | {"NO": 68.59943405700353, "YES": 145.77379737113245} | 0.3200000000000002 | will-btc-be-higher-than-70k-on-july | 142.88210932868319 | Will BTC end July 12th, 2024 higher than $70K? | 1720843140000 | rMQCXUh977flkHRzhQ0nN5Shfii1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718210302483 | MatterAtoms | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17999999999999983} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.21973508112578, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MatterAtoms | 1718563286299 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXLVhqz8qys_PuwmnNzI16IR6yRvpbLYa5gJ6XfNxFZ2rXA3E0Jg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718120358951 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1718210302702}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1718210302700}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "cr... | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718563283229 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d | what-will-bidens-approval-rating-at | 7194.29724112011 | What will Biden's approval rating at 538 be on 6/30? | 1719859765459 | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718210873059 | Scott Supak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden's approval as it appears in the 538 POTUS approval data for 6/30/24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will check on 7/1/24 but will close as soon as the data is posted for that day.", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 109.60249324696174, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719859765459 | 1000 | ScottSupak | 1719859808778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c | 14 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cnbg187h4a", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Over 37", "index": 0, "poolNo": 689.5985438744657, "userId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.594266760837627, "textFts": "'37':2", "contractId": "2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2", "create... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675531545177 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718210874119}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718210874134}, {"name": "FiveThirtyEight", "slug": "fivethirtyeight", "groupId": "8DP8g4cqyxNk... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "fivethirtyeight", "politics-default", "polls"] | 0.25 | 1719821898566 | 1719859806795 | 0.03 | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14 | QH8XyTxB3PJGTofBjSCx | {"NO": 947.0589647556171, "YES": 1396.7304299005098} | 0.09940815612154326 | will-my-technooptimism-by-vitalik-b | 400 | Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.936138340631569 | False | public | 1718218122745 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.040591843878456754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.269570099490323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718244218163 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718218123172}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718244214968 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | qi0jMEHGilHFa8bEY2Ur | {"NO": 999.9999999999994, "YES": 1000.0000000000005} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores | 6215.582560079891 | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026? | 1767340740000 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.141476472332762 | False | basic | public | 1718218441636 | Maxim Lott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2026, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 183.3625430902678, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaximLott | 1719490073957 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646147297259 | 0 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1718218442112}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718218442113}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId"... | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "books", "game-of-thrones"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719490070529 | 1719209843264 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dOWXDI1HVZzvXbeHrmrH | {"NO": 1732.050807568876, "YES": 577.3502691896264} | 0.7499999999999998 | will-winds-of-winter-hit-bookstores-y8ifde0y3j | 3522.817847634407 | Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030? | 1893571140000 | jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8048538043091726 | False | basic | public | 1718218487067 | Maxim Lott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2030, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2030.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.24999999999999978} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.25812625450098, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaximLott | 1718549989572 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646147297259 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1718218487210}, {"name": "Literature", "slug": "literature", "groupId": "OYHDMa75MB69MmmJxG0g", "createdTime": 1718218487238}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58... | ["books", "literature", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718549986412 | 1718292305269 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8 | which-justices-will-cease-to-be-mem | 3612.087871293193 | Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2024? | 1735804740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718218799278 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES to every above-listed Justice who resigns, dies, or for any other reason officially ceases to be a member of the Supreme Court of the United States before the end of 2024 (otherwise resolving NO on 1 Jan 2025; if no Justi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.14294988490139, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719960805947 | 0 | 21 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "lu1yi9fb7k", "prob": 0.08427043046272659, "text": "Clarence Thomas", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.70633072102179, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 366.2718174377246, "textFts": "'clarenc':1 'thoma':2", "contractId": "ir4DVc5sGnAQxAtYwpE8", "createdTime": 1718218799278, "probCh... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718218799496}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1718218799494}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "createdTime": 1718... | ["law-order", "scotus", "supreme-court", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719960802762 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | UZ82jJfPdfDAZ56n0sgh | {"NO": 614.1795447853068, "YES": 1628.1883831698788} | 1 | will-my-partner-and-i-miss-our-flig | 8202.975810331916 | will my partner and I miss our flight? | 1718219905491 | p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60761151150082 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718218886381 | etirabys | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "we have been in the security line for 15 minutes and cleared 4 rows of waiting, there's about 1.2 row left, the gate is across the airport ( takes about five minutes of walking); boarding started just now. mostly made this market to bet with him.",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 123.79234017356269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718219905491 | 1000 | etirabys | 1718219905491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdp4p7_Xvptf2I7YogZttWjv5q9MHYU76Qkau6wVnNzFg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692136527634 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718219578258 | 1718219099088 | 0.27 | p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f | how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens | 7300.552933364293 | How many seats will Marine Le Pen's National Rally party win in the 2024 French legislative elections? | 1719730740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.652739106410843 | False | plus | public | 1718237198552 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "This market resolves to the number of seats won by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National Rally", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 163.4323951080708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ziddletwix | 1719877398197 | 0 | 38 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "id96wedn9a", "prob": 0.13046444321265932, "text": "<180", "index": 0, "poolNo": 826.3993411717912, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5507.888536980157, "textFts": "'180':1", "contractId": "K4jWKe6veFDuEWlsjl3f", "createdTime": 1718237198552, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1718237198738}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718296427524}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1... | ["france", "politics-default", "world-default", "geopolitics", "elections-world"] | 0.25 | 1719661635833 | 1719877396553 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | P9aqXLWSILPN2GSwfubA | {"NO": 807.4005624452485, "YES": 1238.5426100911493} | 0.3946348917620708 | will-hunter-biden-spend-a-day-in-ja | 1705.1267195314347 | Will Hunter Biden spend a day in jail before the end of July 2025? | 1754020740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577452994635497 | False | basic | public | 1718239000296 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.035514059769331474, "month": -0.10536510823792922} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.22645768052803, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719936460858 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Hunter Biden", "slug": "hunter-biden", "groupId": "57ba045a-0d33-42ab-b9f6-64011bc2e013", "createdTime": 1718239000466}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1718239000468}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZ... | ["hunter-biden", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719936455751 | 1718253894693 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uMrCI3iAKrADLGqxHJFy | {"NO": 29.93759643166068, "YES": 334.02815161956147} | 0.08225388403154756 | universal-coronavirus-vaccine-relea | 300 | Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030? | 1893560340000 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718239803306 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a Universal Coronavirus Vaccine available to the general public by midnight of January 1st, 2030, either via Emergency Use Authorization or otherwise, this market will resolve to YES. If it is restricted to certain groups of people and ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41774611596845246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8524666653483526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mana | 1718403794007 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1718239803460}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718239803471}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdT... | ["covid-d7a9361d772d", "medicine", "public-health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718239901028 | 1718403792841 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | cwQjGiIHkOyaqzcR2Efr | {"NO": 475.29240806821383, "YES": 2103.967963772901} | 0.18427469101498392 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-cfm30qv59l | 1511 | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.658308036344623 | False | basic | public | 1718240373070 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "class": "break-an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.31572530898501605} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.50591784043335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718643119235 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1718240373306}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1718240373304}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine"... | ["arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "palestine", "world-default", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718643116036 | 1718600203326 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | RzClkeVUOzspgTbizgZ8 | {"NO": 724.0736523739649, "YES": 1381.074973134809} | 0.34395369695048084 | will-donald-trump-live-to-see-hunte | 1712.3825182566068 | Will Donald Trump live to see Hunter Biden spend a day in jail? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586590889331772 | False | basic | public | 1718241432718 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.28916180465411234, "month": -0.15604630304951916} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.63632341145431, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719998913491 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1718241432966}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1718241432989}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "creat... | ["the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "law-order", "hunter-biden", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719998910387 | 1718244955846 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 7ltwJyEU5mPMx79Css0b | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-demystifying-alignment-through | 0 | Will "Demystifying "Alignment" through a Comic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718241625331 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718241625684 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718241625684}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-ttzls7erd2 | 31 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1718316462453 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | v1wv0j08ga | public | 1718242715495 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 6]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environme... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5001037766535448, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718316462453 | 120 | CrowTheFox | 1718316673233 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "olcprw5tfu", "prob": 0.07993440104848201, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.332272972623025, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.37583896267354, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "P82NzGZOSWXo67lbSBOB", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 171824... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1718242715683}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1718242715680}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1718242715690}] | ["dd", "fun", "dice"] | 0.25 | 1718297174830 | 1718316671718 | {"v1wv0j08ga": 100} | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA | trump-truth-market-june-1521 | 4042.476454726851 | Trump Truth Market (June 15-21) | 1719028740000 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | c8bjjo7xvz | public | 1718245676125 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many times will Former President Donald J. Trump “truth” (aka post) from his Truth Social account between Saturday, June 15, 2024, and Friday, June 21, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 91.44054618723004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719066938515 | 1200 | MauriceBransfield | 1719028740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "40n0ba6hkt", "prob": 0.00525354051718969, "text": "< 100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.998651350722065, "userId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1703.8750423570355, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "lYcsvnVY5L3niATTWQCA", "resolverId": "rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3", "createdTime":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "Truthsocial", "slug": "truthsocial", "groupId": "a714e245-3476-4744-b6ce-edcbd39f0c74", "createdTime": 1718245676285}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1718245676301}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01... | ["truthsocial", "social-media", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1719028343908 | 1719051823507 | {"c8bjjo7xvz": 100} | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zSg2LlleDkAnhKUsrtCD | is-there-a-strong-scientific-consen | 0 | Is there a strong scientific consensus that I'd be able to resolve a Manifold market after another Carrington Event? | 1735718340000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718245797619 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is specifically in order to calibrate resolution criteria for ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "vtj0N86CVH7fMCcuQM80", "label": "/singer/if-another-carrington-event-happens"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718245797817 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718245797818}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718245797816}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7D... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "technology-default", "natural-disasters"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | qjykekeVXsj3TV0saYPi | {"NO": 76.03001123117109, "YES": 131.52700937521575} | 0.3663090316533072 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-lm7ia6urvq | 136.77792207055026 | Will we get fusion drives before 2042? | 2277673140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718279745476 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2042, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.011289661345234292, "month": -0.1336909683466928} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.824712038461314, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719833655521 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Fusion Drives", "slug": "fusion-drives", "groupId": "feb14a7b-81e3-4056-8985-7b59218da4b8", "createdTime": 1718279745642}, {"name": "Propulsion", "slug": "propulsion", "groupId": "9d85259d-13f6-4238-8860-817a345ae893", "createdTime": 1718279745640}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5v... | ["fusion-drives", "propulsion", "rockets", "fusion-energy", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719833652437 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | N0Y6Ae0X1Hs4DMakSCGA | {"NO": 4358.8989435403455, "YES": 229.41573387057832} | 1 | will-i-get-out-of-jury-duty-within | 10355.272340166308 | Will I get out of Jury Duty within 2 days? | 1718655254750 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.902799642857893 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718279885532 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been called to Jury Duty on Monday, June 17, 2024 at 9am. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it all be over within two days?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 105.84865202414294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718655254750 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1718655280647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718655246861 | 1718655279371 | 0.95 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ | {"NO": 126.77426902989367, "YES": 78.88036015922107} | 0.6164425742797907 | will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before | 274.4931871256689 | Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718281160203 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic hearts have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.12815664795694326, "month": 0.11644257427979066} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.5619213395953, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719912333427 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718281160475}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718281160489}, {"name": "Transplants", "slug": "transplants", "groupId": "154a97c9-e22f-4869-ac4a-9cb5bd0d18... | ["science-default", "medicine", "transplants", "synthetic-organs", "biotech"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912330130 | 1718291494465 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ERrvzcpQqsnoPNYdho4Q | {"NO": 1131.5767455125335, "YES": 883.7226498031894} | 0.5614931201501489 | will-any-realclearpolitics-battlegr | 1500.5195090994764 | Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election? | 1733086740000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.083772691966869 | False | basic | public | 1718281804056 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market battleground state - WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, NC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RealClearPolitics average - 5-way candidate polling average published on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06149312015014885} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.64480208863974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719158605839 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1718281804215}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1718281804220}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-polit... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "election-margins"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719158602819 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | uxpTKi7mbBYD1Oqafyps | {"NO": 48.77147961023702, "YES": 205.03786393023498} | 0.19215793607086035 | will-an-announcement-be-made-before-6wrca85juw | 497.5756191514217 | Will an announcement be made before 2025 that the Boeing Starliner program will be curtailed? | 1735685940000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718282889807 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boeing is under contract to provide six starliner missions to the ISS. If it's announced that Starliner will be cancelled in violation of this contract, this resolves Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.30784206392913965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.146179490851496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mqrius | 1719840829631 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | [{"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1718282890054}, {"name": "ISS", "slug": "iss", "groupId": "TVdR1pkdBrMNxYqSiUPg", "createdTime": 1718282890072}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 171828289... | ["starliner", "iss", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719840829631 | 1718378715347 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | gbZVih4Lz9h7zPO4p6Uv | {"NO": 28.776245307292516, "YES": 347.5088529866618} | 0.07647458120919927 | will-elon-musk-rescue-the-starliner | 1067.747161905631 | Will Elon Musk rescue the Starliner astronauts from the International Space Station? | 1735707540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718283835053 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing \"systems checks\" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted dat... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0020610153650113677, "week": -0.020287947096213774, "month": -0.42352541879080075} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.824833823480319, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5 | 100 | SteveSokolowski | 1720165051675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 19 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1718283835275}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718283835278}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "crea... | ["science-default", "technology-default", "spacex", "space", "rockets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720165048563 | 1718807327410 | 0 |
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