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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49999999999999994 | oDTdjay5Ap4CD2OGqAYy | {"NO": 1899.1400295820692, "YES": 526.5541162965552} | 1 | what-will-be-my-efficiency-in-unive | 1347.329068693164 | What will be my efficiency* in study programming project? | 1718793352907 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.635357133500925 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718289138351 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I expect the project to take 20 hours. Let's call T the real time spent on the project.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "G is the value, corresponding to my final grade/mark. G(A)=1, G(B)=2, ... , G(E)=5, G(FX)=10^10... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.36584543100854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718793352907 | 1000 | KongoLandwalker | 1718793352907 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1718289138558}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1718308916625}] | ["personal-goals", "programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718793335626 | 1718793310327 | 0.78 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | vVU7ZnByqA8hs5YYhn61 | {"NO": 119.38157511303605, "YES": 83.76501977404413} | 0.5876622011774046 | will-petr-bystron-afd-politician-be | 20 | Will Petr Bystroň (AfD politician) be arrested for his alleged corruption (Nov 2024 limit) | 1730415540000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718289353763 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Petr Bystroň is a politician from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Alternative für Deutschland ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "party. In early 2024 he was accused of accepting bribes from Russian source.", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08766220117740464} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartinModrak | 1719487194867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "German Politics", "slug": "german-politics", "groupId": "LLEOgfoEBr6wg3VEdFJc", "createdTime": 1718289353963}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1718289354081}] | ["german-politics", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718307864145 | 1719487193253 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | t8Ekqqy3EkvbQ9BBcTZG | {"NO": 1662.27382190764, "YES": 601.5856032987344} | 0 | will-the-third-season-of-the-bear-h | 2298.8706039229496 | Will the third season of "The Bear" have a Rotten Tomatoes score >97%, two days after release? (S1 = 100%, S2 = 99%) | 1719471540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.610884007386247 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718293583225 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Bear\" S3 Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_bear/s03", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.7342654775289801, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.861681659054604, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719697808045 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719735180775 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718293583432}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1718293583429}, {"name": "Cooking", "slug": "cooking", "groupId": "f73f4a... | ["entertainment", "television-film", "cooking", "tv", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719470562104 | 1719735179495 | 0.73 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ZQfF442C6yWWLqbFUvmr | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-transcript-and-brief-response | 50 | Will "Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718293976603 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869156007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718293976823}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869152962 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000012 | 8NBbbZzcx3V5izo2kIIw | {"NO": 1020.2040612204055, "YES": 980.1960588196099} | 1 | daily-coinflip-b6rj5o645x | 7053.586796674557 | Daily coinflip | 1718423940000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570395453738017 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718295182944 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 164)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 139.78156332340924, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718607141707 | 1000 | Traveel | 1718423940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 79 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1718295183111}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1718295183115}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1718421718576 | 1718607123214 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.519324196844831 | 5nqgo5GLYQByKqcMgjdA | {"NO": 10321.858973941977, "YES": 9706.691078872602} | 0.5346403512185143 | will-we-add-periodicfilling-limit-o | 6360 | Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024? | 1735718340000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.731201530270395 | False | plus | public | 1718296005607 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A large problem with limit orders is they can be filled by news traders, which lowers liquidity (limit orders) on markets. One possible solution is limit orders that fill at a certain rate of mana/time, to give time for the limit order creators to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.034640351218514276} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 208.64354615562584, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ian | 1718980926945 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718296005763}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1718296005804}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718980923888 | 1718422726844 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PBFWIeuE8gCyQzqX0dVm | what-did-vegapunk-try-to-say-in-cha | 1427.413382675017 | What did Vegapunk try to say in chapter 1117? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1781384340000 | KIwlElgsxgYoF5n2WttelP6Rt922 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718298158560 | MrVgpo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In One Piece chapter 1117, Vegapunk said in the broadcast: \"Finally, I would like to leave a message to those around the world with \"D\" in their names... Among you guys, there is mo-\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.63565689659042, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MrVgpo | 1719835143220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJw52-uO7x4Aq2cxAkVLcnbQu4b73M1jXj7EQKCexAzRCkeyVs=s96-c | 6 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "qxzzwgo0hs", "prob": 0.24055160366965475, "text": "(one) more Joyboy", "index": 0, "poolNo": 162.4667042347001, "userId": "KIwlElgsxgYoF5n2WttelP6Rt922", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 512.9256097480109, "textFts": "'joyboy':3 'one':1", "contractId": "PBFWIeuE8gCyQzqX0dVm", "createdTime": 1718298158560, "probCha... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717001368587 | 0 | [{"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1718298158716}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1718298158735}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjP... | ["one-piece-theories", "one-piece-stocks", "anime", "manga"] | 0.25 | 1719835140124 | 1719110230897 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1CDqbljCDwHT5t6NdlNf | {"NO": 37.18490474295859, "YES": 268.9263309701934} | 0.1214751384617698 | did-openai-make-a-profit-during-202 | 172 | Did OpenAI make a profit during 2023? | 1750478340000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718298361959 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We wait until official finances are published. This isn't about gross revenue, we're waiting to see the revenue minus all expenses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if legally... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.3785248615382302} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0736690298065783, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1718339897712 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642459391118 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1718298362202}, {"name": "OpenAI Crisis", "slug": "openai-crisis", "groupId": "f81ebc23-0deb-4e38-b703-66ad59521727", "createdTime": 1718298362206}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9Z... | ["ai-regulation", "openai-crisis", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718339894636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | Zuwg3xbXEgQ6uLdO9sRf | {"NO": 14.873276685840395, "YES": 672.3468009924235} | 0 | will-andrew-tates-daddy-meme-coin-r | 577 | Will Andrew Tate's $DADDY meme coin reach $1B market cap by end of June? | 1719806340000 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718299789878 | Maurice Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Andrew Tate has been promoting the meme coin $DADDY on X (formerly Twitter). On ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "June 12, 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/Cobratate/status/1800980836839252058", "class... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.021642669021092856, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.653199007576552, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719839783712 | 100 | MauriceBransfield | 1719806340000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718211741729 | 0 | [{"name": "Internet influencers", "slug": "internet-influencers", "groupId": "024c49f5-e01a-4b88-a55b-e74e5ff1dca0", "createdTime": 1718299790044}, {"name": "Andrew Tate", "slug": "andrew-tate-e64d523e931a", "groupId": "1e576942-60a0-496c-a311-0f360ed5f279", "createdTime": 1718299790041}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "... | ["internet-influencers", "andrew-tate-e64d523e931a", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719147343799 | 0.02 | rYIuPJZYsscIynMkKXoP123r4dJ3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | r8i11y5Ex2dp2d6IC47g | {"NO": 244.49667439914128, "YES": 40.90035181286339} | 1 | will-my-market-liquidity-tier-show | 300 | Will my market liquidity tier show up correctly (after I upgraded) without having to contact Manifold support. | 1718391614295 | DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718300111173 | Percentage | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I upgraded my market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/percentage/how-high-will-bitcoin-go-by-the-end", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/percentage/how-high-will-bitcoin-go... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.31234833762402, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718391614295 | 100 | percentage | 1718391614295 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690864212456 | 0 | [{"name": "🐛 Manifold Bugs", "slug": "-manifold-bugs", "groupId": "125a4be3-3eba-4bdd-8371-a6a07b5f8b8b", "createdTime": 1718300111346}] | ["-manifold-bugs"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718335107258 | 1718335141544 | 0.86 | DlvX9PKJfxOwj01wWjJllz8CS9i2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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B3AGh4QCpFmmmk0zzAhf | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-0pk33thek9 | 0 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1718423940000 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | mc83j59kk6 | public | 1718316602063 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 7]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environme... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718424255751 | 120 | CrowTheFox | 1718424539375 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0r90jjadab", "prob": 0.08333333333333333, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.454545454545454, "userId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "B3AGh4QCpFmmmk0zzAhf", "resolverId": "9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2", "createdTime": 1718316602064, "probC... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1718316602244}, {"name": "D&D", "slug": "dd", "groupId": "iWyB9bYQ4fLRvTcfAsRG", "createdTime": 1718316602254}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1718316602253}] | ["dice", "dd", "fun"] | 0.25 | 1718361129934 | 1718424538172 | {"mc83j59kk6": 100} | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cr3OuHXQxsNHvJlB7VjE | should-i-make-more-dice-roll-questi | 0 | Should I make more dice roll questions? | 1718942340000 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718317128327 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should i have another dice roll question? If so, what should it be?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm gonna vote on this for what i think would be enjoyable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718942341339 | CrowTheFox | 1718561008370 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717767881159 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1718317128558}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1718317128558}, {"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1718317128556}] | ["fun", "polls", "dice"] | 0.25 | 1718561007297 | ["gjnu82vm4m"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43191929499980847 | s8WP59ycmIY2y7xxzliP | {"NO": 9329.107359881125, "YES": 10925.796834333922} | 0.3936459678786468 | will-manifold-add-retroactive-close | 2818.8189286624693 | Will Manifold add retroactive close times / trade rollbacks in 2024? | 1735718340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4839266242472224 | False | plus | public | 1718317723904 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A big reason why traders are reluctant to post limit orders is that they are afraid of news traders sniping them at the last moment. One solution is the concept of the retroactive close times: After a market resolves, the market creator can select ... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.10635403212135319} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.90411327783352, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SG | 1718998955950 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718317724057}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1718317724055}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718998952898 | 1718434274150 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | q8x562w0ns | {"NO": 106.19131671036409, "YES": 94.16965821485117} | 0.53 | will-i-be-able-to-delete-this-marke-zrkh5j7n87 | 0 | Will I be able to delete this market? | 1718323689142 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718323670121 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a test market!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "spiritually should resolve yes if I can N/A and delete this. Resolves NO if I can't, and if it's possible for me to delete it, meaning I haven't N/A'e... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.030000000000000027} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718323689142 | 100 | Sinclair | 1718323689142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640048961098 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718323677403 | 0.53 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | rq1gm70uk3 | {"NO": 1572.2726738052313, "YES": 636.0219932969981} | 0.7119849978483171 | will-smiling-friends-be-renewed-for | 702 | Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.602412273853613 | False | basic | public | 1718324868056 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adult Swim just renewed Smiling Friends for a 3rd season", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is dropped by Adult Swim and renewed for a 4th season by another company this resolves NO", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21198499784831715} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.143115295483362, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719117622717 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719117619662 | 1718326752624 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jhct2ydftz | what-will-wind-up-my-top-three-favo | 299.4824165589854 | What will wind up my top three favourite sessions at Vibecamp 3? | 1718741419823 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.657485855432661 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1718339905907 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add things you think I might enjoy. The initial options were what jumped out at me from skimming the schedule.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.999641320095131, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718741419823 | 12000 | SkylerCrossman | 1718741419823 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1i20ubmlja", "prob": 0.41, "text": "Face reading workshop", "index": 0, "poolNo": 984.5516857887305, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1446.3269145568308, "textFts": "'face':1 'read':2 'workshop':3", "contractId": "jhct2ydftz", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Sq84uyj7aud... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718606426071 | 1718516438472 | 0.41 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3qk21qnxvz | which-three-new-people-will-i-be-mo | 250 | Which three new people will I be most glad to meet at Vibecamp 3? | 1719028740000 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.96933670259164 | False | plus | public | 1718340282460 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which three new-to-me people will I be most glad to have met, either because I enjoy conversation or because they're an interesting professional contact or for any other reason? This won't count any old friends or acquaintances I met prior to the 1... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.214387216965678, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 15000 | SkylerCrossman | 1719011589112 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "g1fnwi11n5", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Wubbs", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3996.283932896801, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3996.283932896801, "textFts": "'wubb':1", "contractId": "3qk21qnxvz", "createdTime": 1718376874299, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsi... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719011585953 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | cexcxbnsmh | {"NO": 435.6610210555794, "YES": 2295.3625678447506} | 0.15952297989158057 | will-sergiy-velychko-win-a-nobel-pr | 1333.9310698295412 | Will Sergiy Velychko win a Nobel prize for his work on super-SOX by 2035? | 2051337540000 | gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.680735361404714 | False | basic | public | 1718345324330 | Saul Munn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sergiy Valychko and his coauthor published paper on December 22 2023 showing a method of creating the naïve embryonic stem cells using a modified Yamanaka factor called super-SOX.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3404770201084194} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.70636232570786, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | saulmunn | 1718384277955 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZUXokPymgD5tR3Rv4gtxGuihIIsF3UOHG4nlIEyQ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677778511210 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718384274928 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | pnyp8h5ck1 | {"NO": 589.3923525971826, "YES": 1696.662665529093} | 0.2578207208154893 | is-vitalik-buterin-single | 1045.5047906611694 | Is AGI happening in 2027? Bet on China/US for it. | 1718953140000 | vu7dUQRsatUKx3vVix3tjWfIJ2Z2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614258142010971 | False | basic | public | 1718346269772 | Julie Zhang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGI risk will hit us as Covid soon, which government will lead the development of it? Will US be ahead of the game as usual? AGI storm will come before 2027? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2421792791845107} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.701301540217937, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JulieZhang | 1719546765151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK3zUq-TE--IkHPhwoPMXX_YGi-Xiibj6r_aQuSm_K6IXDPAQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718345888260 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1718810306890 | 1718349351145 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 9pnxl3prjt | {"NO": 1424.3538717184915, "YES": 702.072722134354} | 1 | trent-alexander-arnold-is-in-the-st-v4conaa15e | 787.5269170514891 | Trent Alexander Arnold is in the starting lineup for England against Serbia at the Euro 24 tournament on 6/16/2024? | 1718550000000 | nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589864871644384 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718347946695 | A W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Trent Alexander-Arnold start for England in their first Euro group game on 17 June 2024, Matchday 1, against Serbia.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.9202553153594, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718564490306 | 1000 | Exegesis | 1718550000000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDC1ewhAjvtN_WJ9gk6XMTk-YbPEG7uLzvMLdsBGyiUEA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705665440894 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718541242880 | 0.67 | nKlq3behIUMn0fqTY2hLvK2k5I32 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2i6bin5vrb | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-xu98r79kww | 5639.117119757143 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Mon. Jun. 17th Compared To Its Close On Fri. Jun. 14th? | 1718683140000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718349450885 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Tue. Feb. 13th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Feb. 12th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inf... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.2687842305829, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718701704280 | 500 | SirCryptomind | 1718683140000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fvhxhla3xv", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Asia (Tokyo) | Nikkei 225 : Yes⬆️/No⬇️", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.141094470358496, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 310.898799515746, "textFts": "'/no':6 '225':4 'asia':1 'nikkei':3 'tokyo':2 'yes':5", "contractId": "2i6bin5vrb", "resol... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718672510539 | 1718376546735 | 0.99 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5ns0vytqmx | euro-2024-who-will-qualify-from-gro-sbq9kcmley | 22076.102043613137 | Euro 2024 - Who will qualify from Group B? (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Albania) | 1719393376116 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718361111492 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro 2024 kicks off today - 14th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament starts with the group stages. There are six groups of four teams each. Teams play three games - one agains... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 269.27378319624376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719393376116 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719393421428 | 0 | 54 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1tk40j5l20", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Spain", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2487.4685927665473, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.12594538148028, "textFts": "'spain':1", "contractId": "5ns0vytqmx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719350423509 | 1719393419949 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aa2xltbetd | euro-2024-who-will-qualify-from-gro-l2pu4hsb6x | 21299.452630003565 | Euro 2024 - Who will qualify from Group C? (England, Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia) | 1719393456407 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718361219501 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro 2024 kicks off today - 14th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament starts with the group stages. There are six groups of four teams each. Teams play three games - one agains... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 260.71856999481145, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719393456407 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719393557579 | 0 | 53 | 6 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2vf5xhyznb", "prob": 0.99, "text": "England", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2487.4685927665582, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.125945381480392, "textFts": "'england':1", "contractId": "aa2xltbetd", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719393408844 | 1719393556453 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | 0f4hks70hy | {"NO": 99.61587506234942, "YES": 10038.560614702155} | 0 | will-the-boston-celtics-beat-the-da-t577huud4q | 20258.553150908 | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the NBA finals today? | 1718456233410 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849234470881084 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718361249040 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 251.0473221703891, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718456233410 | 1000 | Bruce54df | 1718456233410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 41 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718455967981 | 0.01 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dq6qlboxsa | euro-2024-who-will-qualify-from-gro-nc2evtzvzn | 24958.050976003957 | Euro 2024 - Who will qualify from Group D? (France, Netherlands, Austria, Poland) | 1719393599676 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718361315281 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro 2024 kicks off today - 14th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament starts with the group stages. There are six groups of four teams each. Teams play three games - one agains... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 247.08679063984403, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719393599676 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719393641073 | 0 | 48 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8of6vd59et", "prob": 0.99, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2487.4685927665532, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.125945381480356, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "dq6qlboxsa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719347381995 | 1719393640002 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
s7ldp7g97p | euro-2024-who-will-qualify-from-gro-svpm7e60s4 | 25396.47178460753 | Euro 2024 - Who will qualify from Group E? (Belgium, Ukraine, Slovakia, Romania) | 1719522351005 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718361389855 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro 2024 kicks off today - 14th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament starts with the group stages. There are six groups of four teams each. Teams play three games - one agains... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 272.55898456083463, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719522351005 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719522351005 | 0 | 44 | 10 | DISABLED | [{"id": "54zsfqtsko", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Belgium", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2461.3500562326535, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.392568538447776, "textFts": "'belgium':1", "contractId": "s7ldp7g97p", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719491627291 | 1719475774835 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c648m4795n | euro-2024-who-will-qualify-from-gro-hr4amp6zih | 17445.006074372854 | Euro 2024 - Who will qualify from Group F? (Portugal, Turkey, Czechia, Georgia) | 1719522371983 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718361594155 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro 2024 kicks off today - 14th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament starts with the group stages. There are six groups of four teams each. Teams play three games - one agains... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 169.32109858475036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719522371983 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719522371983 | 0 | 42 | 10 | DISABLED | [{"id": "x1omch4e1q", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Portugal", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2444.465950418128, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.567956873896833, "textFts": "'portug':1", "contractId": "c648m4795n", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719475823856 | 1719475867395 | 0.99 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ezdnxho3zv | who-will-be-runner-up-at-euro-2024 | 31959.88249068451 | Who will be runner up at Euro 2024? | 1720997940000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718366151691 | nic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the Country whose team is the RUNNER-UP (2nd place) in UEFA Euro 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.2644591483992, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5648.079611441403 | 2500 | nic_kup | 1720218402508 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 23 | 8 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cdrdx8onl2", "prob": 0.004405524033486028, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.973130111282654, "userId": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3835.7195308006267, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "ezdnxho3zv", "createdTime": 1718366151691, "probChanges": {"day": -0.093130... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640787423776 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720218399163 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | zebcm4fq2b | {"NO": 2016.2866468729267, "YES": 495.96122731403995} | 0.8025826860438495 | will-another-israeli-minister-resig-j8jrun16ee | 2120.6212499249027 | Will another Israeli minister resign from the government before 2025? | 1735768740000 | taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.648324982658671 | False | basic | public | 1718366303851 | Magyk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the start of war 4 ministers resigned, 3 of them after joining a \"unity government\" at the start of war.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to YES if until January 1st 2025 another minister wi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.020986633890200612, "month": 0.3025826860438495} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.44114779248979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Magyk | 1719880015473 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700599486853 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719880012243 | 1718366369866 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ckza4h48k3 | {"NO": 457.62212487930685, "YES": 2185.20903084338} | 0.17315602015981585 | will-x-fka-twitter-reverse-their-pr | 5137.919684207833 | Will X (FKA Twitter) reverse their Private Like policy by end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.667732842649126 | False | basic | public | 1718371776856 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Before the end of the year, Likes are made public again - reverting back to how they were.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"},... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0021499382292517466, "week": -0.03838896672312797, "month": -0.32684397984018415} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 110.07449211424628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 122.27793665130015 | 1000 | vVv | 1720214277607 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 48 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720214274464 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 303svt3kdm | {"NO": 1142.1343583190744, "YES": 442.02975813586033} | 0.2960845617965497 | will-safety-isnt-safety-without-a-s | 150 | Will "Safety isn’t safety without a social model (o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.832887442707069 | False | public | 1718373684587 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.15608456179654967} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.865641680925672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719519546449 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719519543378 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bq20u34brx | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-p38phyinqo | 3699.434042441484 | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, June 17th, 2024? | 1718596740000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718376266152 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.85295033324866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718678283792 | 1100 | EBurk | 1718596740000 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "flw1fy01hg", "prob": 0.85, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 340.06802040680185, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.01200360120036, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "bq20u34brx", "resolution": "YES", "r... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706489499554 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718595312670 | 1718629241931 | 0.3 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tkwd3verck | {"NO": 255.99573980206384, "YES": 3906.315006543474} | 0.06150327435951898 | will-trump-substantially-replace-in | 4027.8865544614414 | Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs? | 1863752340000 | WM7WirIJRIa82lGUqbnnl2oWQG13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.880800123197098 | False | basic | public | 1718376846825 | daffy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is conditional on Trump getting elected in 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is intended to gauge the chance Trump makes credible progress on this goal which he al... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43849672564048103} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.80798952119723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dadadadaffy | 1718442965491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfTQLo3itCqOn0eodS8zlVmrkSY58V2wXBDd9yzDcZmebI=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690355347161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718442962450 | 1718395896333 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uonmssaf5v | which-of-the-following-states-does | 14065.610789630193 | Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718376951334 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be decided by a poll from 6/24-7/1. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 224.49116988600375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3650 | MarkHamill | 1719902835561 | 0 | 66 | 7 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7h650k4kyu", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Minnesota", "index": 0, "poolNo": 222.2260164379347, "userId": "S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.244707236746821, "textFts": "'minnesota':1", "contractId": "uonmssaf5v", "createdTime": 1718376951334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719902832435 | 1719279570480 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zco2wya03i | who-will-be-the-villain-for-the-15t | 1085.5942882191016 | Who will be the villain for the 15th Doctor's final episode? [Add your own] | 1719269940000 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718377828179 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to many if there's multiple final bosses or if any previously mentioned names are confirmed as X,Y etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.787980840734985, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720196341092 | 1000 | vVv | 1719269940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "hkzkp9y0yy", "prob": 0.34, "text": "The Master", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.01798111727561, "userId": "sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 173.57643224239519, "textFts": "'master':2", "contractId": "zco2wya03i", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719227217732 | 0.34 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ap7tplfca | what-will-be-the-human-baseline-for | 2964.6314916778133 | What will be the human baseline for the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC-AGI)? | 1798779540000 | CkfMukn0XXObAMkzFJohXBfpv283 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718379642671 | Peter Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not currently an established human baseline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/MaxNadeau_/status/1800950145896546446", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.279262283322936, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PeterBarnett | 1718650043650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgD6oN3zKaT6jzZ5CSbbWKfuc85Z9q_RcT7qLK9zg=s96-c | 16 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "nu95jwcbbj", "prob": 0.03545807334729953, "text": "0-15%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.955510614836896, "userId": "CkfMukn0XXObAMkzFJohXBfpv283", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 869.2640875805798, "textFts": "'-15':2 '0':1", "contractId": "ap7tplfca", "createdTime": 1718379642671, "probChanges": {"day": -1.387778780... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644930534728 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718650040605 | 1718387951815 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pf6yycx4mp | {"NO": 178.59732063325475, "YES": 55.99188142656831} | 0.7613194429456744 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-get-a-high | 614.0479956641784 | Will Robert F Kennedy Jr. Get a Higher % of Votes in Utah than Biden? | 1731128340000 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718380373735 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "recently polling has shown Kennedy is tying Biden in polling", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "<", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1801640774049964515", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type... | BINARY | {"day": 0.059594127468800884, "week": 0.3834921582862738, "month": 0.26131944294567444} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.374829923445656, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 8.732652295175676 | 100 | Blomfilter | 1720220724777 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677201572009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720220721573 | 1719689118981 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | b6h3ow8oj9 | {"NO": 450.8797737034861, "YES": 2217.8861379965942} | 0.16894691727243427 | will-deadpool-3-achieve-90-score-on | 3618.706346841948 | Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com? | 1738472340000 | 7Zfy9bUDSscO94DPcNJNm8KrT3F2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.671565216192029 | False | basic | public | 1718381316178 | Rillaboom27 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will “Deadpool and Wolverine” have an IMDb rating of 9 or higher on Feb. 1, 2025? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.33105308272756573} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.181903102274596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Rillaboom27 | 1719597896843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhCwCShHnyGWuaQpQROwcdenijvJlNL0xMMLa79w2sAiRFxNuW=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713055801596 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719597893175 | 1718456521269 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 798oq0fri0 | {"NO": 266.8560161834962, "YES": 3747.339161776205} | 0.06647808697710894 | will-ukraine-begin-to-mobilize-all | 3355.2771552869276 | Will Ukraine begin to mobilize all men AND women aged 18+ for the Ukraine-Russia war (total mobilization) in 2024? | 1735682340000 | UCDNQ1A1vdbPWrOP6Qnwh5NuAR72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.86099470526307 | False | basic | public | 1718381783046 | BetObserver | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of Total Mobilization", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The official enactment by the Ukrainian ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.003419978870906587, "month": -0.43352191302289106} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.38368293686781, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeKa | 1719747995623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCJYj_pQ3zj-Mqa7A7GLxSMQdMVRuSVN9Vm8exjWVh=s96-c | 25 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708266007146 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719747992541 | 1718388233777 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 4i4y5ktv3n | {"NO": 1105.5415967851322, "YES": 904.5340337332914} | 0.55 | will-a-new-lab-create-a-topperformi | 4857.22327209348 | Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028? | 1830380340000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.567390460514398 | False | basic | public | 1718383682225 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Definition of \"New Lab\":", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02115235917938163, "month": 0.050000000000000044} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 132.48215239756442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719704533286 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 36 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719704530168 | 1718874125351 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8b36480ofg | {"NO": 84.9207720529722, "YES": 117.75681918862159} | 0.4189943818295421 | will-over-1000-people-sign-the-peti | 30 | WIll over 1,000 people sign the petition against Cognition, calling for an evaluation-based scaling policy, by July 31? | 1722488340000 | R1THnMg0gihG4ha9BSpJLmYEHFs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718384140207 | Tyler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The petition is here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "www.cognitionaisafety.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.cognitionaisafety.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 h... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.08100561817045793} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.95745325333211, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TylerJohnston | 1718562212906 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqqi5W68XwkedJPhaSLweq1HE8keIOV2Iqpt3NMdA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659290346311 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718562209843 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999958 | b2v3iudszf | {"NO": 4517.169013042859, "YES": 221.3775922735266} | 0.9532815416387048 | resolves-yes-on-jan-1-2029 | 17414.00525740692 | Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029 | 1861977540000 | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.44072224303564 | False | basic | public | 1718384273078 | Ansel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's see what the risk-free rate on manifold is.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0005951485914275079, "month": 0.4532815416387048} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.30405087128368, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ansel | 1719786053244 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661077246623 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719786050183 | 1718731992961 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | rqezyzbzgg | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066189} | 0 | will-the-usa-advance-from-the-super | 899.8821924629603 | Will the USA advance from the Super 8s round to the Twenty20 semifinals? | 1719288187708 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718386646014 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With 8 teams remaining in the tournament and four teams in their group, they would need to finish in the top two in their group to advance.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.894755356341433, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719288187708 | 100 | KevinBurke | 1719288187708 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719288182146 | 0.01 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1ofxi6ppvn | {"NO": 608.1636405595382, "YES": 1644.2942874387525} | 0.26999999999999996 | will-rfk-jr-finish-second-in-any-st | 11837.999240599467 | Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1733115540000 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.164447767718276 | False | basic | public | 1718387154021 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will RFK Jr. receive the second-highest number of votes in any US state (or DC) in the 2024 general election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A recent Utah poll shows RFK Jr. tied with Biden f... | BINARY | {"day": 0.0547212994147728, "week": 0.13939518495454556, "month": -0.23000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 181.26764211343644, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 907.6870006923782 | 1000 | BishopG | 1720220067769 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 32 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720220064696 | 1718479187865 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rarmrrmrkg | nhl-finals-game-3-oilers-vs-panther-ij90hfytlv | 1583.8343200232212 | NHL finals game 4: Oilers vs Panthers | 1718507041620 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718387264376 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Allowing people to add outcomes. I will edit those that go against the game (IE, if you are posting a meme outcome it may be disqualified and resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.37189097590036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718507041620 | 211 | Haws | 1718507041620 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "wfn3azpqhw", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Will Bouchard have 6 shots on goal?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.111429752699479, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.97419743093671, "textFts": "'6':4 'bouchard':2 'goal':7 'shot':5", "contractId": "rarmrrmrkg", "resolution": "NO", "resolv... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718506607041 | 1718501661041 | 0.99 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 |
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