p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49999999999999994 | oDTdjay5Ap4CD2OGqAYy | {"NO": 1899.1400295820692, "YES": 526.5541162965552} | 1 | what-will-be-my-efficiency-in-unive | 1347.329068693164 | What will be my efficiency* in study programming project? | 1718793352907 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.635357133500925 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718289138351 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I expect the project to take 20 hours. Let's call T the real time spent on the project.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "G is the value, corresponding to my final grade/mark. G(A)=1, G(B)=2, ... , G(E)=5, G(FX)=10^10.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to N, where N = 20/T/G. If N>1 then resolves to 100%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I spend 30 hours and get B: N=20/30/2=33%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I spend 10 hours and get D:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N=20/10/4=50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I spend 15 hours and get A:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N=20/15/1 -> 100%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will bet, and likely comment my progess.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.36584543100854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718793352907 | 1000 | KongoLandwalker | 1718793352907 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1718289138558}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1718308916625}] | ["personal-goals", "programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718793335626 | 1718793310327 | 0.78 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | vVU7ZnByqA8hs5YYhn61 | {"NO": 119.38157511303605, "YES": 83.76501977404413} | 0.5876622011774046 | will-petr-bystron-afd-politician-be | 20 | Will Petr Bystroň (AfD politician) be arrested for his alleged corruption (Nov 2024 limit) | 1730415540000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718289353763 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Petr Bystroň is a politician from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Alternative für Deutschland ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "party. In early 2024 he was accused of accepting bribes from Russian source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petr_Bystron", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petr_Bystron", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if by November 2024, Petr Bystroň is arrested and the reason for arrest include bribery or other illicit monetary gains for Bystroň. This will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he is arrested for a different crime and no connection with the bribes is reported, this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Somewhat subjective resolution, I will not trade.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08766220117740464} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartinModrak | 1719487194867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "German Politics", "slug": "german-politics", "groupId": "LLEOgfoEBr6wg3VEdFJc", "createdTime": 1718289353963}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1718289354081}] | ["german-politics", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718307864145 | 1719487193253 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | t8Ekqqy3EkvbQ9BBcTZG | {"NO": 1662.27382190764, "YES": 601.5856032987344} | 0 | will-the-third-season-of-the-bear-h | 2298.8706039229496 | Will the third season of "The Bear" have a Rotten Tomatoes score >97%, two days after release? (S1 = 100%, S2 = 99%) | 1719471540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.610884007386247 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718293583225 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Bear\" S3 Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_bear/s03", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the Tomatometer displayed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two days after release (June 29th).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes the day before release (June 26th).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal—this is a strict inequality). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The previous seasons of \"The Bear\" have been critically acclaimed—the current RT scores for Season 1 & 2 are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "100%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_bear/s01", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "99%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_bear/s02", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", respectively.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "192cjqc79i", "label": "/Ziddletwix/the-bear-season-3-predictions-megam"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.7342654775289801, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.861681659054604, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719697808045 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719735180775 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1718293583432}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1718293583429}, {"name": "Cooking", "slug": "cooking", "groupId": "f73f4a9f-57d0-44f4-b505-574065c56da7", "createdTime": 1718293583428}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1718293583441}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1718293583407}] | ["entertainment", "television-film", "cooking", "tv", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719470562104 | 1719735179495 | 0.73 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ZQfF442C6yWWLqbFUvmr | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-transcript-and-brief-response | 50 | Will "Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718293976603 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conversation between Yann LeCunn and Eliezer Yudkowsky", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tcEFh3vPS6zEANTFZ/transcript-and-brief-response-to-twitter-conversation", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869156007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718293976823}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869152962 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 08qYcxsKdypSt9pdiJI8 | {"NO": 72.99351421260818, "YES": 136.9984731913717} | 0.34760142572575503 | will-max-verstappen-win-the-2024-wd | 313.315347497574 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 WDC && RBR lose the WCC? | 1735718340000 | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718294349902 | Enlil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only if Max Verstappen wins the 2024 World Drivers Championship and Red Bull comes in 2nd or below in the World Constructor Championship will this resolve to YES. If Max loses the WDC or RBR wins the WCC this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not participate in this market myself.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15239857427424497} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.963009546304317, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Enlil | 1718857058564 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698989439494 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1718294350075}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1718294350095}, {"name": "Red Bull", "slug": "red-bull", "groupId": "02d7a2ea-9c5e-4247-a262-ee9abc97f2da", "createdTime": 1718294350083}] | ["formula-1", "auto-racing", "red-bull"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718857055503 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | 8NBbbZzcx3V5izo2kIIw | {"NO": 1020.2040612204055, "YES": 980.1960588196099} | 1 | daily-coinflip-b6rj5o645x | 7053.586796674557 | Daily coinflip | 1718423940000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570395453738017 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718295182944 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 164)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 82 heads vs 81 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 139.78156332340924, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718607141707 | 1000 | Traveel | 1718423940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 79 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1718295183111}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1718295183115}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1718295185413}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1718295185971}] | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1718421718576 | 1718607123214 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.519324196844831 | 5nqgo5GLYQByKqcMgjdA | {"NO": 10321.858973941977, "YES": 9706.691078872602} | 0.5346403512185143 | will-we-add-periodicfilling-limit-o | 6360 | Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024? | 1735718340000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.731201530270395 | False | plus | public | 1718296005607 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A large problem with limit orders is they can be filled by news traders, which lowers liquidity (limit orders) on markets. One possible solution is limit orders that fill at a certain rate of mana/time, to give time for the limit order creators to cancel their limit orders before the news traders eat the whole thing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, in the limit order panel you could set a rate of 1k mana/hour fill rate for a 10k NO order at 80%. News breaks and the first news trader fills 1k of your limit order, moving the price up to 99%. Every hour after that, your limit order buys another 1k mana worth of NO shares to bring the market back down to 80%, unless you come in before the remaining 9 hours pass to stop it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pros:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reduces downside risk of news trading to liquidity providers", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Simple mechanism to implement, relatively easy to explain", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cons:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Limits upside if the trades aren't based on real news, and instead just wild swings from dumb money", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Would you place more limit orders with this feature? Why or why not?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.034640351218514276} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 208.64354615562584, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ian | 1718980926945 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1718296005763}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1718296005804}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718980923888 | 1718422726844 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2bL1LJ8xiOldmVddxra6 | which-function-of-predictive-market-emu4llend7 | 0 | Which function of predictive markets is most valuable long term? | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718301163546 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aimed at getting the reader to consider the marketing value of predictive markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Economically rewarding individuals to consider new ideas seems valuable in the long term.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Long term ~ 30 years.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to include your best arguments for either side in comments.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Krantz | 1718301327729 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | [{"name": "Prediction Markets General Discussion", "slug": "prediction-markets-general-discussi", "groupId": "14d12bcd-c86e-41eb-afa5-7d5def811b14", "createdTime": 1718301163701}] | ["prediction-markets-general-discussi"] | 0.25 | 1718301326652 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | PIDNB9TExwxcMRbglgmu | {"NO": 70.5370743819038, "YES": 141.7694182474554} | 0.3322417204877769 | will-openai-make-a-profit-in-2024 | 320 | Will OpenAI make a profit in 2024? | 1767243540000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718301252963 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We wait until their finances for 2024 are officially published (presumably in 2025). This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if legally-required filings show net income was positive for OpenAI during 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03237642868415458, "month": -0.1677582795122231} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.041437037840037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1720125047209 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642459391118 | 0 | [{"name": "OpenAI Crisis", "slug": "openai-crisis", "groupId": "f81ebc23-0deb-4e38-b703-66ad59521727", "createdTime": 1718301253132}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1718301253124}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1718301253135}] | ["openai-crisis", "ai-regulation", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720125044060 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | KpRJYi1yrdpapb6xRIht | {"NO": 1670.9724830521245, "YES": 598.453900433743} | 1 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1118 | 1398.633549365806 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1118 of One Piece on June 20th? | 1718906955103 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611730817853449 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718301339519 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for June 20th If they release chapter 1118 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB Scans ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "usually", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1117, 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I’d put the info here for investors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not answer my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.89701371865665, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718906958115 | 1000 | dwax | 1718906955103 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1718301339665}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1718301339677}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1718301339678}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1718301339690}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1718301339694}] | ["manga", "one-piece-theories", "anime", "release-dates", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718872560459 | 1718897972030 | 0.74 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Yb51RD9IYRTphfZbYeIh | {"NO": 66.73860872952403, "YES": 149.83830484881193} | 0.30815199841410923 | will-there-be-autonomous-school-bus | 117 | Will there be autonomous school busses in service in the USA by 2030? | 1893473940000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718303570763 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By the end of 2029, will there be at least one school district running at least two busses that are self-driving for the majority of their routs? These must be exclusive to students and teachers; they may have an adult on board.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.19184800158589077} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.139716852098103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Duncn | 1719165701706 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640817648012 | 0 | [{"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1718303570910}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1718303570914}] | ["automotive", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719165698605 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | whABwNEN66enYR5zyEpn | {"NO": 151.42591741078448, "YES": 66.0388932818696} | 0.696323772699008 | will-there-be-autonomous-school-bus-c75r9x7q0l | 72 | Will there be autonomous school busses in service in the USA by 2035? | 2082776340000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718303642933 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By the end of 2034, will there be at least one school district running at least two busses that are self-driving for the majority of their routs? These must be exclusive to students and teachers; they may have an adult on board.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.18272033634687646, "month": 0.19632377269900803} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0740146176387317, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Duncn | 1719872300206 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640817648012 | 0 | [{"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1718303643109}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1718303643139}] | ["automotive", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719872297041 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14 | xzTD9NfdH4hmVhsE87GT | {"NO": 984.0181107264725, "YES": 1104.0303401129315} | 0.12670981241109736 | will-anthropics-certificate-of-inco | 105 | Will "Anthropic's Certificate of Incorporation" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905597902260034 | False | public | 1718307822688 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Anthropic's Certificate of Incorporation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogXkDBLyxby3TXXKm/anthropic-s-certificate-of-incorporation", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.013290187588902658} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9696598870682909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718328492337 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1718307822874}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718328489297 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | SiR8nCwRLjn3UvEbcNZq | {"NO": 41.9973117273222, "YES": 238.1104787117672} | 0.14993268006394378 | will-a-mutiny-occur-in-2024-within | 160 | Will a mutiny occur in 2024 within the Russian or Ukrainian military? | 1735682340000 | XsDSj6h8iGOd58jaDEyp613gOqh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718309163961 | Michael Voss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", specifically, if any unit of Russian OR Ukrainian military defects from central command control.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t•\tYes: In a 2024 scenario, a Russian or Ukrainian military unit defects after officers openly criticize command, troops refuse missions, the government is in crisis, or there is strong foreign support for the mutiny, for example coupled with severe pay cuts and clear evidence of mutiny planning.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t•\tNo: In 2024, all military units remains loyal even in case of political instability because officers support command, troops follow orders, the military receives adequate pay, and there are no signs of mutiny planning or recent mutinies.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3500673199360562} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3894533166559926, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MichaelVoss | 1719068770606 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707865606822 | 0 | [{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1718309164372}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1718309164385}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1718309164411}] | ["russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719068767456 | 1718309221384 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | MHB1pgiI2jyg5ujqiU5d | {"NO": 156.4561855930565, "YES": 6391.565767818238} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-0pzu3v41fv | 11418.517959465658 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 14 than it closed on June 13? | 1718395453263 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.876149707285078 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718309310544 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 160.69329545939698, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718395453263 | 1000 | JimFix | 1718395453263 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1718309310704}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1718309310699}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1718309310706}] | ["finance", "stocks", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718394394849 | 1718319568347 | 0.02 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | zd1WKI55EirL1h2Kxlab | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-the-2322-speedrun-of-penny-the | 50 | Will the 2:32.2 speedrun of Penny the Pumpkin: Director's Cut be beaten before October 2024 | 1727823540000 | DMMjDGd7wHeYXNebQnNkjLF7dwb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1718314188155 | Kai Salmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My Pico-8 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/pico-8.php", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/pico-8.php", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") game Penny the Pumpkin (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/bbs/?tid=142093", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/bbs/?tid=142093", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") has a current speedrun time of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2:32.2, with only three competitors. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The previous edition of the game (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/bbs/?tid=52122", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lexaloffle.com/bbs/?tid=52122", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") had 13 submitted speedruns, with a world record of 1:20.3.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve \"YES\" if a speedrun is added to the speedrun leaderboard before October, and \"NO\" otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KaiSalmon | 1718315596096 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLKbKw0RinTPsoYR4RFdTnpOFDH0JFKtNYx0YwlBsOK=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705864637330 | 0 | [{"name": "pico-8", "slug": "pico8", "groupId": "319442e3-3a84-409d-8619-c8d014ccceb8", "createdTime": 1718314188307}, {"name": "Speedruns", "slug": "speedruns", "groupId": "omjl6OBz9dBcvuyTxdtr", "createdTime": 1718314188310}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1718314188328}] | ["pico8", "speedruns", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718315592879 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5178488572587121 | J8x08zbtceapKkRAn55T | {"NO": 8130.904667776475, "YES": 12104.594191544538} | 0.4190956120124968 | barron-trump-is-not-fully-natural | 6390.6150295890575 | Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."] | 2223867540000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7507274904485164 | False | plus | public | 1718314588596 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is any evidence that Barron Trump is not a fully natural human. Be it steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01298422983705505, "month": -0.08090438798750321} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 206.246598487562, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Quillist | 1720022157624 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1718314588790}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1718314588786}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1718314588789}] | ["medicine", "technology-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720022154434 | 1718439703165 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B3AGh4QCpFmmmk0zzAhf | what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-0pk33thek9 | 0 | What will my d12 land on? - Daily | 1718423940000 | 9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | mc83j59kk6 | public | 1718316602063 | CrowTheFox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Day 7]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I have a d12. I will roll it and announce the number. This will happen near 6-8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d12 environment:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I shake the die 3 times in my hand and then roll it into a box on a level surface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Strictly speaking a d12 has a 1/12 or 8.3% chance for any side. However, as some may believe, each die has a personality. So I did 50 prerolls for you and added the results from the previous day got the following results. 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0.5 | q8x562w0ns | {"NO": 106.19131671036409, "YES": 94.16965821485117} | 0.53 | will-i-be-able-to-delete-this-marke-zrkh5j7n87 | 0 | Will I be able to delete this market? | 1718323689142 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718323670121 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a test market!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "spiritually should resolve yes if I can N/A and delete this. Resolves NO if I can't, and if it's possible for me to delete it, meaning I haven't N/A'ed it yet. The most likely reason for this to resolve NO is if two traders bet on this", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.030000000000000027} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718323689142 | 100 | Sinclair | 1718323689142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640048961098 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718323677403 | 0.53 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | gwzargffmo | {"NO": 253.00442729515117, "YES": 3952.5000044106564} | 0.06016030452559275 | will-taylor-swift-give-a-speech-at | 3554 | Will Taylor Swift give a speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention? | 1724396340000 | Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886539311850742 | False | basic | public | 1718326547706 | Eric Neyman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.43983969547440727} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.111875135783826, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EricNeyman | 1718666329112 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiPFPOiz1zGjPpuk7iqSJxdcLSra5RL3n0RXK2q=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642222980375 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718666326063 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | m2lwxgy4x5 | {"NO": 423.15994715714, "YES": 2363.172617631155} | 0.15186986381479978 | will-the-fda-ban-erythritol-before-l9fo30e0vz | 1609.6232610381323 | Will the FDA ban xylitol before 2030? | 1893484740000 | cSXwuheTh4ZSog0zGNP4iAwE55p2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.439282119762062 | False | basic | public | 1718326774187 | zQ4Z82W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "new paper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehae244/7683453?login=false", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " found that artificial sweetener xylitol is associated with cardiovascular risk, possibly due to enhanced platelet activity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Derek Lowe has commentary here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/and-now-xylitol", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/and-now-xylitol", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The same research group published a similar result last year for another sugar alcohol, erythritol.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/zQ4Z82W/will-the-fda-ban-erythritol-before", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/zQ4Z82W/will-the-fda-ban-any-sugar-alcohols", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3481301361852002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.82009917543835, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | zQ4Z82W | 1718421648182 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652148113175 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718421645127 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qsdbyyqvx0 | {"NO": 911.7673204000673, "YES": 1096.7710485184068} | 0.45394568234761745 | will-the-fda-ban-any-sugar-alcohols | 100 | Will the FDA ban any sugar alcohols before 2030? | 1893484740000 | cSXwuheTh4ZSog0zGNP4iAwE55p2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658407367277 | False | basic | public | 1718327214726 | zQ4Z82W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the past year, studies have found that the sugar alcohols erythritol (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "paper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02223-9", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") and xylitol (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "paper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehae244/7683453?login=false", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, possibly due to platelet activity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If erythritol, xylitol, or any other sugar alcohols are banned by the FDA, this market will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/zQ4Z82W/will-the-fda-ban-erythritol-before", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/zQ4Z82W/will-the-fda-ban-erythritol-before-l9fo30e0vz", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | zQ4Z82W | 1718329990929 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652148113175 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718329987890 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999989 | 6lnapgcluh | {"NO": 1619.742589040351, "YES": 6.173820499419435} | 1 | will-a-whale-go-down-in-a-ball-of-f-qwuqk49jo5 | 1595.2952601834802 | Will a whale go down in a ball of flames before the end of 2024? | 1719970901000 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718327734581 | Arky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if any whale on manifold (defined as a user with an all-time profit of at least 200,000 mana) has their profit graph decrease by 500,000 mana or more over a period of 72 hours before the end of 2024. Manipulation of the profit graph will not count. Examples of manipulation would include actions taken solely to resolve this market, making a funny profit spike using a market that is guaranteed to resolve N/A, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some examples of things that would count: Isaac King's losses in the Whales vs. Minnows market and Mira's antics at the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5077985067502658, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.206218398285735, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719970901000 | 100 | Arky | 1719970901000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696787160354 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719970881867 | 1719970837725 | 1 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | jwkaakx7af | {"NO": 4.204338972249197, "YES": 2378.4951846188496} | 0 | the-market-xtreme-edition | 4919.766044372474 | "The Market": X-treme Edition | 1718945940000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718327855640 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve according to a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "quasi-arithmetic mean", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-arithmetic_mean", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of its probability. If the mean is larger than 50%, it resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The particular mean I am using is the f-mean with f(p) = sgn(p-.5)*(p-.5)^2. In other words, I take the difference of the probability p from 50%, square it, add a positive sign if it's >50% and a negative sign if it's <50%, and take the average of that over the entire time the market is open (time-weighted, as always). Then I convert it back into a number between 0 and 1 (everything is symmetric between p and 1-p here, so 0.5 would be the mean if the average of sgn(p-.5)*(p-.5)^2 is 0). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The standard arithmetic mean is exactly equivalent to this procedure if you replace (p-.5)^2 with |p-.5|. In other words, this market is like a standard arithmetic mean market, except with all the probabilities weighted by their distance from 1/2. This means it rewards you more for bringing the market to more ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "EXTREME", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " probabilities. For example, holding it at 70% helps Team YES four times as much as holding it at 60%, instead of just twice as much. Therefore, the typical strategy of, \"Don't waste effort bringing the market that much higher/lower than 50%, instead keep it slightly above or below for a long time,\" might not work as well.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 66.27441045910055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719106097434 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1718945940000 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719026714891 | 1719087226709 | 0 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
192cjqc79i | the-bear-season-3-predictions-megam | 4148.7457970508685 | "The Bear" Season 3 Predictions Megamarket [ADD RESPONSES] | 1719449940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718327963464 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can add your own options, but they need to be (1) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "easy to verify", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", & (2) resolvable within a month of release (e.g. no \"S4 released in 2025?\"). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am serious about this—I will not waste my time trying to figure out whether the number of times Carmy swears is a prime number, I'll just ask the mods to N/A without mercy (or I'll resolve bad answers to 50%).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All episodes drop on June 27th. This market closes at midnight PT, June 26th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So for uncertain options, you'll get some liquidity back (and I'll add liquidity myself once more options are added).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm slow and might not finish watching S3 for a few weeks. To avoid delay, I'm happy to resolve any options based on agreement in the comments (plus any mods who watch the show are welcome to resolve options any time, based on their own judgment).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please ask if any options need clarification—I can add more context.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 98.51276825353897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2410 | Ziddletwix | 1719865167778 | 0 | 20 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "negiuiv0hj", "prob": 0.3695523778317474, "text": "Carmy & Claire together (as a couple) at end of season", "index": 0, "poolNo": 122.39443574334817, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 208.80201457166734, "textFts": "'carmi':1 'clair':2 'coupl':6 'end':8 'season':10 'togeth':3", "contractId": "192cjqc79i", "createdTime": 1718327963464, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0029742880682419592, "month": 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0.5000000000000001 | pnyp8h5ck1 | {"NO": 589.3923525971826, "YES": 1696.662665529093} | 0.2578207208154893 | is-vitalik-buterin-single | 1045.5047906611694 | Is AGI happening in 2027? Bet on China/US for it. | 1718953140000 | vu7dUQRsatUKx3vVix3tjWfIJ2Z2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614258142010971 | False | basic | public | 1718346269772 | Julie Zhang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGI risk will hit us as Covid soon, which government will lead the development of it? Will US be ahead of the game as usual? AGI storm will come before 2027? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2421792791845107} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.701301540217937, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JulieZhang | 1719546765151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK3zUq-TE--IkHPhwoPMXX_YGi-Xiibj6r_aQuSm_K6IXDPAQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718345888260 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1718810306890 | 1718349351145 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | j0b9i66x9z | {"NO": 570.8516244634013, "YES": 1751.7686858472143} | 0.24577914088207503 | will-us-housing-prices-drop-by-20-b | 1255.9472624881757 | Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030? | 1925020740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.59827872566744 | False | basic | public | 1718347050010 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if at any point between June 13, 2024 and December 31, 2030, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index experiences a drop of 20% or more from its previous peak value. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Source:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The data source for determining housing prices will be the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Calculation Method:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Identify the peak monthly values of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from June 2024 to December 2030.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monitor the index values following the peak. If at any point the index value falls 20% or more below this peak, the market will resolve to \"Yes.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional Notes:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event of significant methodological changes or discontinuation of the index, alternative reputable indices or sources (such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index) may be used at my sole discretion, with transparent communication to all participants.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Carson Gale, the market creator, may bet on this market. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.25422085911792497} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.87137253098109, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1718918577173 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661672957507 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718918574069 | 1718398294698 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2i6bin5vrb | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-xu98r79kww | 5639.117119757143 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Mon. Jun. 17th Compared To Its Close On Fri. Jun. 14th? | 1718683140000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718349450885 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Tue. Feb. 13th Compared To Its Close On Mon. 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0.49999999999999994 | zebcm4fq2b | {"NO": 2016.2866468729267, "YES": 495.96122731403995} | 0.8025826860438495 | will-another-israeli-minister-resig-j8jrun16ee | 2120.6212499249027 | Will another Israeli minister resign from the government before 2025? | 1735768740000 | taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.648324982658671 | False | basic | public | 1718366303851 | Magyk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the start of war 4 ministers resigned, 3 of them after joining a \"unity government\" at the start of war.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to YES if until January 1st 2025 another minister will send an official resignation letter to the prime minister, and it will be announced on a verified minister account or in a major news publication. Note that if Netanayahu resigns it will resolve to NO as he is not technically a minister.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to YES even if the minister returns to his position before the end of the poll.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ministers that resigned since the start of the war: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Galit Distel-Atbaryan", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Benny Gantz", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gadi Eisenkot", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hili Tropper", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.020986633890200612, "month": 0.3025826860438495} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.44114779248979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Magyk | 1719880015473 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700599486853 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719880012243 | 1718366369866 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ckza4h48k3 | {"NO": 457.62212487930685, "YES": 2185.20903084338} | 0.17315602015981585 | will-x-fka-twitter-reverse-their-pr | 5137.919684207833 | Will X (FKA Twitter) reverse their Private Like policy by end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.667732842649126 | False | basic | public | 1718371776856 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Before the end of the year, Likes are made public again - reverting back to how they were.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Before the end of the year, Likes remain private or visibility is expanded to a select choice. Any policy change that doesn't effectively revert this change will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0021499382292517466, "week": -0.03838896672312797, "month": -0.32684397984018415} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 110.07449211424628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 122.27793665130015 | 1000 | vVv | 1720214277607 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 48 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720214274464 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 303svt3kdm | {"NO": 1142.1343583190744, "YES": 442.02975813586033} | 0.2960845617965497 | will-safety-isnt-safety-without-a-s | 150 | Will "Safety isn’t safety without a social model (o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.832887442707069 | False | public | 1718373684587 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Safety isn’t safety without a social model (or: dispelling the myth of per se technical safety)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F2voF4pr3BfejJawL/safety-isn-t-safety-without-a-social-model-or-dispelling-the", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.15608456179654967} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.865641680925672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719519546449 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719519543378 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bq20u34brx | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-p38phyinqo | 3699.434042441484 | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, June 17th, 2024? | 1718596740000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718376266152 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. If the answer is ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A by the next regular post day based on the possible consensus there.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.85295033324866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718678283792 | 1100 | EBurk | 1718596740000 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "flw1fy01hg", "prob": 0.85, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 340.06802040680185, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.01200360120036, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "bq20u34brx", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718376266152, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08388389924530504, "week": 0.34999999999999987, "month": 0.34999999999999987}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 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0.5 | tkwd3verck | {"NO": 255.99573980206384, "YES": 3906.315006543474} | 0.06150327435951898 | will-trump-substantially-replace-in | 4027.8865544614414 | Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs? | 1863752340000 | WM7WirIJRIa82lGUqbnnl2oWQG13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.880800123197098 | False | basic | public | 1718376846825 | daffy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is conditional on Trump getting elected in 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is intended to gauge the chance Trump makes credible progress on this goal which he allegedly talked about in a GOP meeting. I will consider credible progress as reducing personal income tax share of total USG revenue to 30% or less and increasing tariffs share to 20% or more by the end of his term. I will also accept legislation passed and signed into law that the CBO forecasts will accomplish the above goals by 2030. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43849672564048103} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.80798952119723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dadadadaffy | 1718442965491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfTQLo3itCqOn0eodS8zlVmrkSY58V2wXBDd9yzDcZmebI=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690355347161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718442962450 | 1718395896333 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uonmssaf5v | which-of-the-following-states-does | 14065.610789630193 | Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718376951334 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be decided by a poll from 6/24-7/1. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 224.49116988600375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3650 | MarkHamill | 1719902835561 | 0 | 66 | 7 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7h650k4kyu", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Minnesota", "index": 0, "poolNo": 222.2260164379347, "userId": "S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.244707236746821, "textFts": "'minnesota':1", "contractId": "uonmssaf5v", "createdTime": 1718376951334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.49}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0.49}, {"id": "wh9q5vh5d4", "prob": 0.9407439147172311, "text": "Nebraska", 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zco2wya03i | who-will-be-the-villain-for-the-15t | 1085.5942882191016 | Who will be the villain for the 15th Doctor's final episode? 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I will edit those that go against the game (IE, if you are posting a meme outcome it may be disqualified and resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is am unlinked multiple choice, each choice has its own resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.37189097590036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718507041620 | 211 | Haws | 1718507041620 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "wfn3azpqhw", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Will Bouchard have 6 shots on goal?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.111429752699479, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.97419743093671, "textFts": "'6':4 'bouchard':2 'goal':7 'shot':5", "contractId": "rarmrrmrkg", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1718387264376, "probChanges": {"day": -0.4877979678346097, "week": -0.4877979678346097, "month": -0.4877979678346097}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": 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