p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.14 | g0gqfhz1wn | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-clarifying-metrs-auditing-role | 0 | Will "Clarifying METR's Auditing Role" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718387294917 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Clarifying METR's Auditing Role", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yHFhWmu3DmvXZ5Fsm/clarifying-metr-s-auditing-role", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718387294939 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2380691180529422 | b1xg26vkju | {"NO": 10301.012389007015, "YES": 8486.930764091485} | 0.2749642161732945 | will-keith-gilldeep-fucking-valuero | 10161.526955415065 | Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME? | 1767243540000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8588987720656858 | False | plus | public | 1718388409423 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Gamestop guy bought millions of dollars worth of shares and options on $GME, and then used his reputation to trigger a huge price upswing. Will there be any legal consequences?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I may resolve early if at the end of the year there seems to be no investigation or lawsuits forthcoming.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there are consequences which are completely trivial relative to the profits gained, I may resolve this to a small number roughly in proportion to their share of his (approximate, risk-adjusted) profits.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.01911582653145877, "week": 0.06077497075014207, "month": -0.22503578382670553} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 267.9291526001786, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 221.2758737826298 | 10000 | MichaelWheatley | 1720214271898 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720214268293 | 1719895447273 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | z1x6cc7kze | {"NO": 20.62628221843834, "YES": 484.81834458081687} | 0.04080819366713804 | will-sanji-get-conquerors-haki-by-t | 1112.2954722765728 | Will Sanji get Conquerors Haki by the End of 2024! | 1735707540000 | EaIrRCozr5N5is3Yf8YJSUzrK9n1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718389135140 | ARedditor397 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.45919180633286194} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.609919874963978, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ARedditor397 | 1719513240790 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1683490238364 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719513237703 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | x87dyzt44a | {"NO": 184.544064237778, "YES": 5418.760035064226} | 0 | will-gothamchess-levy-rozman-win-hi | 6614.769163924911 | Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) win his last game at Madrid Festival on Saturday? | 1718448413445 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.887159586651322 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718390680867 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He cannot get a GM norm anymore after losing last game. Can he at least finish with a win?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He has white pieces vs FM Daniel Tabuenca Mendataurigoitia (2355).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 82.0815067834994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718448413445 | 1000 | Weezing | 1718452803263 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718448358315 | 1718452802282 | 0.03 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
t5fgucehof | should-we-switch-away-from-fpop-in | 0 | Should we switch away from FPOP in local US elections? Is it worth the cost? | oigmP5QCNyV1PO3bBdDxkxwpQxB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718390759430 | Alon Ragoler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AlonRagoler | 1718390759430 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpfo1fYA8-tasZ4QczW0qEvjON_jEY1H9XrftbvZRtnjFwLN4_=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714877266677 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | yla0vm4u6l | {"NO": 537.4510120341536, "YES": 1860.6346952723816} | 0.2241166820671327 | will-spacex-dragon-rescue-boeing-st | 8730.00450214276 | Will SpaceX Dragon Rescue Boeing Starliner Astronauts? | 1735714740000 | T31vZBYtJpaNo0qRuAsnUC0PjvH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633741515778382 | False | basic | public | 1718390993641 | Shihan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boeing's first crewed Starliner mission is having some difficulties, and return has now been delayed until June 22 at the earliest. \"This is the second delay in Starliner's scheduled return date\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-astronaut-mission-return-delayed-june-22", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-astronaut-mission-return-delayed-june-22", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES only if BOTH Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams both return to earth alive on a SpaceX dragon.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if anything else. Examples: If they return on some other craft, or one returns on a Russian craft, or one of them dies, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.012243753575313154, "week": 0.09593735542290063, "month": -0.2758833179328673} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 151.22234566674376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20 | 1000 | Shihan | 1720242155469 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8ZfSeIp_wOPEyJo3s5WRmn_BFSZKGYPivVseXj_pbSkznI0e4w=s96-c | 32 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717187989768 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242152370 | 1719101146386 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | u8rh5e4dml | {"NO": 278.6592940343929, "YES": 35.88611689644838} | 1 | will-power-be-restored-to-my-house | 254.8167089417251 | Will power be restored to my house in 5 hours? | 1718401387272 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718391512391 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Landlord has a construction crew out that cut the internet line 4 hours ago and JUST cut the power line 20 minutes ago. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I have power in 5 hours....", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.489582400275283, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718401387272 | 100 | Haws | 1718401415560 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718397713133 | 1718401414586 | 0.57 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lpxflwcrxi | is-will-ferrell-funny | 0 | Is Will Ferrell funny? | 1721026740000 | JLRXiih9mKVKzSp2MaKHS0cJV5o1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718391771998 | Miti Saksena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can answer this based on whatever you have know about him. Could just be his SNL sketches, just his movies like anchorman, Step brothers, talladega nights.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | MitiSaksena | 1718391805675 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676481471736 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7469094402142319 | 8kzzo9ex10 | {"NO": 1816.7566848920483, "YES": 801.148213766462} | 0.8699999999999998 | free-mana-will-20-free-profit-oppor | 2515.209091105532 | FREE MANA: Will 20 free profit opportunities be shared and taken by the end of July? | 1722484740000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.69037892536996 | False | basic | public | 1718392928737 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[experimental market]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What is this market for?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It's for users that have a hard time being profitable on manifold, but would like to still make profits with their mana. Experienced users can help with this, and hearing their reasoning can help you improve your reasoning around market probabilities.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check the comments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". Experienced traders will sometimes share markets that are mispriced, ie you can profit on them by betting your mana. These traders might not find it worthwhile to bet on these markets because they resolve in too much time, or because they have better markets to spend their mana on (Risk-free interest rates != 0).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you bet on a market because of a comment below", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", you are encouraged to state this, and tip the person that wrote the comment with 20% to 40% of the profits you made because of them. If you take all the \"alpha\" (fix the shared market to the correct price), you should say that so that others don't waste their time on that market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a beginner friendly market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", so you are welcome to ask questions. Some example might be \"I think this market (with a link) is super overpriced, for this or that reason. Can someone let me know if they think I'm wrong?\". If you have further questions, the [manifold discord](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is great for this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some extra details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone lies to steal people's mana", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", by saying false things about markets to enrich themselves, they will be banished and shamed. I'll also probably close this market and consider the experiment a failure.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I consider a comment with a free mana claim to be wrong but not malicious", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", I reserve the right to hide this comment so others don't see it.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please do not break site rules! Do not trick people into giving you quick profits at their expense", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you consider a free-mana claim to be wrong, comment under it with your reasoning. We can discuss the merits of it if they are uncertain.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I strongly recommend against sharing markets or trading in markets that have 5year+ resolution dates. Shorter term (up to a year) is strongly encouraged.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criterion", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": If 20 profit opportunities are shared, and someone comments under them saying they have taken them (without lying about this), before August, the market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tipping tutorial", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Press the ... at the top of a comment, you will see this menu:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiNBG_RAJQo.png?alt=media&token=33caa353-16cd-421f-ae58-05142620cc6f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can click Tip and select the amount you want to send.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.003982709990714373, "month": 0.3699999999999998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.909870566054504, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1720147013052 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719763381483 | 1720147011743 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
t4gc0wboq7 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-97 | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 97) | 1718686929275 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718395283875 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Triggered tech boost for Mass Production", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Met new civ, Japan", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unmet civ finished Meenakshii Temple", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Liang established in Gyatt", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Earned new envoy", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Diplomacy view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIS_MKyS8Ks.png?alt=media&token=7e42149d-2f02-45bf-a844-a4616f056ebe", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/xUZHq9u.png", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5S-OpgykdD.png?alt=media&token=806aaf8f-ea24-4e5c-9dcc-d6f15ee9bf99", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/u1aDw1q.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3Kz_NdYlh5.png?alt=media&token=a2b436e2-8066-4de0-908e-c4239f0e547a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/PMZjkS0.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": 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zyvtbg9wns | bay-area-bingo-what-will-i-experien-6ufcpdbqcj | 10288.836593718434 | Bay Area Bingo: what will I experience/encounter while living here for two months? | 1723964340000 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718405332449 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "all my past bingo markets have been really fun (and my affinity for marketable scavenger hunts remains high) so I'm back for another round:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "after spending ~10 days in Berkeley for LessOnline/SummerCamp/Manifest, I've accepted an offer to look after someone's house and kitten in SF. I'll be staying here (in the south side of the city) until mid-August, at least. if I decide to stick around, this market still only counts for the time of my sit which is set to end 17 August.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FBYnzZQxORw.jpg?alt=media&token=af3eb20e-41ad-40c7-a356-c72ec564212e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "open for responses! add suggestions of things I should do/see or things you think I may encounter - if you prefer, comment with a suggestion and I'll add it for you.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if something resolves and you think it may happen again, feel free to add it back. 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Don't be shy.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I love restaurant/market/food recs but I don't eat much meat (mostly chicken and fish when I do).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll take photos for posterity when I can.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'd like to resolve lots of Yes answers! I'll bet on this market in the direction I think is most likely and won't change my bet at a late stage. 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0j9pzz81rj | which-strange-outputs-of-other-mode | 9717.149587555314 | Which strange outputs of other models will Nate Silver's 2024 election model replicate? | 1721026740000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718409081850 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Economist", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " models have produced some weird outputs that don't gibe with conventional wisdom. When Nate Silver releases his model soon (it'll be behind a paywall, but I'm a subscriber so I'll be able to see it), will any of them be corroborated?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: If the election changes substantially between now and the Silver model release, such that Manifold's chances of one or more of these things spikes to the point where it is the conventional wisdom, I may N/A the answer at my discretion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve to a probability if one of these things is not a direct output of the Silver model, based on my best probability estimate of what it would say.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 134.45970411869507, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1719448526862 | 0 | 13 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "wecbq2waoh", "prob": 0.03, "text": "North Carolina as top-5 likely tipping point state", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.50272704188566, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1126.674014444257, "textFts": "'-5':5 'carolina':2 'like':6 'north':1 'point':8 'state':9 'tip':7 'top':4", "contractId": "0j9pzz81rj", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718409081850, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3415637812245117, "week": -0.3415637812245117, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.3415637812245117, "probChangeWeek": -0.3415637812245117, "resolutionTime": 1719442986565, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "8t68lbod5g", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Biden >20% to win Texas", "index": 1, "poolNo": 35.88453696366308, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1114.6862516438282, "textFts": "'20':2 'biden':1 'texa':5 'win':4", "contractId": "0j9pzz81rj", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718409081850, "probChanges": {"day": -0.228636441119378, "week": -0.228636441119378, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.228636441119378, "probChangeWeek": -0.228636441119378, "resolutionTime": 1719442988750, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "rga5mdxpqe", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Biden >20% to win Florida", "index": 2, "poolNo": 33.9970791233161, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1176.5716653160014, "textFts": "'20':2 'biden':1 'florida':5 'win':4", "contractId": "0j9pzz81rj", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718409081850, "probChanges": {"day": -0.27, "week": -0.2333598917742497, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.27, "probChangeWeek": -0.2333598917742497, "resolutionTime": 1719442990517, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "nterkev5o7", "prob": 0.17000000000000137, "text": ">25% that a candidate wins at least 350 electoral votes", "index": 3, "poolNo": 90.51392757105077, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 441.92094049394944, "textFts": "'25':1 '350':8 'candid':4 'elector':9 'least':7 'vote':10 'win':5", "contractId": "0j9pzz81rj", "createdTime": 1718409081850, "probChanges": {"day": 0.01912979626924427, "week": 0.01912979626924427, "month": -0.32999999999999863}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.01912979626924427, "probChangeWeek": 0.01912979626924427, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.32999999999999863}, {"id": "9qe9f5mx2d", "prob": 0.97, "text": "Trump >60% to win overall", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1176.5733480315193, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.99703050126246, "textFts": "'60':2 'overal':5 'trump':1 'win':4", "contractId": "0j9pzz81rj", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "createdTime": 1718409081850, "probChanges": {"day": 0.7, "week": 0.7, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.7, "probChangeWeek": 0.7, "resolutionTime": 1719442952038, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.97}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719427354360 | 1719448525700 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 5vxcnnzmv2 | {"NO": 903.3396287932529, "YES": 1107.003355245107} | 0.4493460250144143 | will-there-be-an-ozymandiasbeihai-a | 176 | Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035? | 2051305140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571938353602707 | False | basic | public | 1718409896263 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caution! The question is very subjective by its nature! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is inspired by the characters Ozymandias from \"Watchmen\" and Zhang Beihai from \"The Dark Forest.\" Both characters are strategic visionaries who take extreme, morally ambiguous actions they believe are necessary for the greater good of the survival of humanity. They operate with a deep commitment to preventing existential threats, often working in isolation due to their controversial methods. They are ready to pay any price for the survival of humanity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Identification of a Figure:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - A person or group takes significant, intelligent, contrarian, strategic, and morally ambiguous actions specifically motivated by the perceived risks posed by artificial intelligence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Characteristics:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The actions must generally be comparable in impact and rationale to those of Ozymandias and Zhang Beihai:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Strategic Visionary:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Demonstrates exceptional strategic thinking aimed at addressing AI risks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Moral Ambiguity:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Engages in ethically questionable actions believed to be necessary for the greater good.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Commitment to a Greater Cause:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Deeply committed to making humanity survive, with actions driven by this perceived existential threat.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Isolation or Alienation:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The individual or group operates in a way that sets them apart from the mainstream, often due to the controversial nature of their actions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Rational and Calculative Nature:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Approaches the AI risk problem with a highly rational and calculative mindset.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Impact:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - The actions must be such that either they have a profound and significant impact on the global state of AI risks, similar to how Ozymandias' and Zhang Beihai's actions affected their respective worlds, or it can be reasonably expected that they can or could have had such impact, were the actors more lucky. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Generally, the best way to understand what is meant here and how the question can be resolved is to read the original stories of the mentioned characters. I am not sure if the formal description above is the best representation of how I am going to resolve the question, but I tried to write it objectively. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reasonable question may arise from the audience: why is this particular cluster of features? Why to select these specific fictional objects as some representation of a class of things that may happen in the real world, and to expect that this class is compact, likely, and important? It is a reasonable question, and I do not have a good answer to it. You may also point out that the resolution may be very subjective. You are right. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I just want to ask my question. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.050653974985585715} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.74960420889615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718635678574 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718467286990 | 1718453970374 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.764059493383099 | n45a0wht3s | {"NO": 1142.1040908475525, "YES": 938.9841149779561} | 0.7975247071138044 | will-enzo-mascara-stay-at-chelsea-f | 145 | Will Chelsea F.C place high enough to get into European football in the 2024/25 Premier League Season? 🇬🇧 | 1748840340000 | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641733356724167 | False | basic | public | 1718412949828 | celery | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as yes if they get to any qualifier or group stage of a major European Tournament.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2975247071138044} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.895909152447895, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WhoamI748e | 1719611986714 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710768426467 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719611983191 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 7t1qf4sslu | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-the-local-interaction-basis-id | 0 | Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1718415948558 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Computationally-Relevant and Sparsely Interacting Features in Neural Networks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bchjSwxBTxZBFXBXs/the-local-interaction-basis-identifying-computationally", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718415948594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2djctyhmkd | {"NO": 99.78502904029511, "YES": 100.2154340804151} | 0.49892398989131287 | will-prompting-be-the-dominant-meth | 10 | Will prompting of generalist models be the dominant method of interaction with LLMs on 1 January 2028? | 1830401940000 | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718418798343 | Campbell Hutcheson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prompting means direct prompting of a generalist model and includes optimized prompts used with a generalized model such as those created through a framework like DSPy.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alternatives to direct prompting of a generalist model would include fine-tuning a generalist model with adapters and then using prompts on that to get specific behavior or using representation vectors with prompts over a generalist model, where the behavior is controlled using the representation vector.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of the question here is will the market make it such that fine tuning is available in an ordinary programming workflow to the point that it becomes the dominant method of controlling model behavior.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.001076010108687131} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3379826810446662, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CampbellHutcheson | 1718450598982 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714972692677 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718450595827 | 1718445662289 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999667 | a4nhxwrnue | {"NO": 9949.874371066202, "YES": 100.50378152592111} | 1 | will-i-start-a-quant-trading-study | 8998.178330215074 | Will I start a quant trading study group before August 2024 | 1718493608634 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923016 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718420681042 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There was a group of people at Manifest who participated in quant trading boot camp, and it was a lot of fun! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve been wanting to learn more, and figured there might be others who feel the same. If there’s interest I might set up a study group where we can go over problems and share resources that are useful.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market doubles as advertising for the group, so if you’re interested, leave a comment or send me a DM! If there’s enough interest I’ll set up some kind of group chat, and this market will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.303959148872146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718493608634 | 1000 | TonyPepperoni | 1718494334525 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718493597235 | 1718494333451 | 0.99 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36069446666394633 | 1ebmc5klyv | {"NO": 948.9611842620793, "YES": 1083.9961121557599} | 0 | will-there-be-an-orgy-at-vibecamp-2 | 3305.788016765479 | Will there be an Orgy at Vibecamp 2024? | 1718601352078 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.628807474505086 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718423261772 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be 5+ people with multiple partner swapping in the same space to count , final judgement is deferred to ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor"}}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "D3BpLMGzAKMr4DuCxSHxrzX4xq13", "label": "vibecamp"}}, {"text": " our resident sexperts ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.77177564521321, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718729342868 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718729383411 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718601077318 | 1718729381360 | 0.33 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09863171343077486 | usenxanryy | {"NO": 1028.9248459961038, "YES": 1345.7235347544106} | 0.07720531432208601 | will-there-be-a-rps-poker-cool-poke | 480.0184123621723 | Will there be a RPS Poker / Cool Poker event in the World Series of Poker before the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.138000503103472 | False | basic | public | 1718423710448 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rock Paper Scissor poker aka Cool Poker aka Poker 2 is a variant of poker we developed at Manifest 2024 which involves simultaneous betting using hand signals and fixed size bets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules are still in flux, here is an early version SG wrote up ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Rock-Paper-Scissors-Poker-a77d63a1537941ebb15f8f81194dbabb", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Rock-Paper-Scissors-Poker-a77d63a1537941ebb15f8f81194dbabb", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.422794685677914} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.258052883417671, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | strutheo | 1718437594867 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718437591843 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Whatever they add to will be the resolving number.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May the odds be ever in your favor.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Odds:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 2: 1+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "3:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 2/36 (2 ways to roll a 3: 1+2, 2+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "4: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "3/36 (3 ways to roll a 4: 1+3, 2+2, 3+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "5:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 5: 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "6:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll a 6: 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "7:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 6/36 (6 ways to roll a 7: 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "8:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll an 8: 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "9:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 9: 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "10:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 3/36 (3 ways to roll a 10: 4+6, 5+5, 6+4) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "11: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "2/36 (2 ways to roll an 11: 5+6, 6+5) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "12: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 12: 6+6)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: 2.78% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7: 16.67% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "12: 2.78%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", 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However, as some may believe, each die has a personality. So I did 50 prerolls for you and added the results from the previous day got the following results. Best of Luck.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Previous roll: 3", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total Rolls:58", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "number-quantity-percent", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1s-6-10.3%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2s-6-10.3%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3s-3-5.2%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4s-9-15.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5s-6-12.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6s-4-6.9%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7s-1-1.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8s-7-12.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9s-4-6.9%", "type": "text"}]}, 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0.5000000000000009 | 10v85i16k8 | {"NO": 910.2804180223312, "YES": 10.985625750058306} | 0.9880755121451406 | one-month-from-today-will-jimmy-car | 2145.06493155392 | One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431048312 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.055846445569704084, "month": 0.48807551214514056} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.864013656391945, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720052008086 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720052005035 | 1718900897030 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8zdpestejv | {"NO": 25.957757751246945, "YES": 385.2412868565125} | 0.06312698945107696 | one-month-from-today-will-bitcoin-b | 289 | One month from today, will Bitcoin be worth $75,000 USD or more? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431088752 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.09895896108417941, "month": -0.436873010548923} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7587131434874617, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720070683353 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720070680300 | 1718432882588 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | 5t8c6nebgv | {"NO": 35.470717520954096, "YES": 281.9226871881731} | 0.11175631564701524 | one-month-from-today-will-biden-be | 835.3834591683143 | One month from today, will Biden be leading Trump on FiveThirtyEight's general election poll? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431304486 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.11871130876950714, "month": -0.38824368435298473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.85530600149882, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720026101499 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720026092216 | 1718900882677 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ggypziq1sf | {"NO": 40.09264703679285, "YES": 249.42229408856522} | 0.13848213456946606 | one-month-from-today-will-lightcone | 775.0524640286158 | One month from today, will Lightcone/Lighthaven (Manifest Venue) have raised $2000 or more through Manifold donations? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431365468 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/charity/lightcone", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity/lightcone", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.36151786543053394} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.357921418233067, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718907631966 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718907628917 | 1718900873112 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | xvyouetd7e | {"NO": 28.148701960263182, "YES": 355.2561682636998} | 0.0734176953564005 | one-month-from-today-will-israel-an | 485.38539741987756 | One month from today, will Israel and Palestine have agreed to a ceasefire deal? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431498722 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.05901890667836629, "month": -0.4265823046435995} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.746941363500499, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719898409674 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719898406161 | 1718432854671 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | s2zh3s2hgk | {"NO": 52.609377796760555, "YES": 190.08017997536072} | 0.21677643768323684 | one-month-from-today-will-manifold | 127 | One month from today, will Manifold pay out Spice/Prize Points as USD to at least one USA state? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431763945 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be through the website, not in person. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.28322356231676316} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.901249797145219, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718553862320 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718553859264 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9h7j2pumnw | {"NO": 398.19210178238615, "YES": 25.113506659820814} | 0.9406728704771 | one-month-from-today-will-gamestop | 302 | One month from today, will Gamestop have the same CEO as today? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431877045 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09812162210077513, "month": 0.4406728704771} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.807898217613803, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720069948336 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720069945291 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uvcbqmhboi | {"NO": 28.648525288168933, "YES": 349.05810681046535} | 0.07584861597211155 | one-month-from-today-will-chat-gpt5 | 279 | One month from today, will Chat GPT-5 have been announced? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431914471 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be Chat GPT 5. Does not have to be fully released, just officially announced. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.041277301274363576, "week": -0.041277301274363576, "month": -0.42415138402788843} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.448760773186994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 75 | 100 | strutheo | 1720172155242 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720172152140 | 1718432549945 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | r9ekyv7tsc | {"NO": 79.95900589021122, "YES": 125.06408613597124} | 0.3900000000000001 | one-month-from-today-will-israel-ha | 609.2004623654966 | One month from today, will Israel have declared war on Hezbollah or Lebanon? | 1721102340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718431993966 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.08419369299402452, "month": -0.10999999999999988} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.618312155582688, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719865088677 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719865088677 | 1719864832744 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | 3tr4zr1jft | {"NO": 994.9874371066193, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | one-month-from-today-will-the-supre | 1634.0556365906964 | One month from today, will the Supreme Court have issued a decision on Trump's immunity case? | 1719894933587 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718432298617 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.06438531512051882, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.41529510902806, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719894933587 | 100 | strutheo | 1719894933587 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681349881 | 1719894915431 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | r23g45mryo | {"NO": 906.6149510497573, "YES": 11.030040910334819} | 1 | one-month-from-today-will-trump-and | 1332.03107836957 | One month from today, will Trump and Biden have debated? | 1719544610151 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718432326978 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.348820389576005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719544610151 | 100 | strutheo | 1719544610151 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719537585364 | 1719538641839 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | bdy2orno8b | {"NO": 994.9874371066217, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | one-month-from-today-will-ten-or-mo | 1563.7388641796242 | One month from today, will ten or more of the Manifest 2024 talks have been uploaded on YouTube for public viewing? | 1719628133014 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718432514708 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.777647445332242, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719628133014 | 100 | strutheo | 1719628133014 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719626775179 | 1719626788451 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | 7ymsuff90n | {"NO": 460.7398362207137, "YES": 21.704222673746784} | 0.9550119391593653 | will-cat-outperform-dog-in-the-mont | 365 | Will CAT outperform DOG in the month of July 2024? | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718433833103 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAT ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAT:NYSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAT:NYSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DOG ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DOG:NYSEARCA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DOG:NYSEARCA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Comparing start of July to end of July", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.028084584795528, "month": 0.45501193915936533} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.2601637792863105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720069977617 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720069974292 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bu5kle20mw | is-this-a-satisfying-definition-of | 0 | Is this a satisfying definition of life? | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718435688145 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Life is a self-sustaining chemical system capable of Darwinian evolution, with the ability to grow, reproduce, maintain homeostasis, and respond to stimuli, all using an enclosed cellular structure.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a modification of the definition given by NASA astrobiologist Gerald Joyce, who simply defines life as the first clause: \"Life is a self-sustaining chemical system capable of Darwinian evolution\" (though ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "he claims", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/22210-life-definition-gerald-joyce-interview.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " it's not his own personal coinage). Unlike his definition, the above definition will exclude viruses and self-replicating robots. Claude wrote it at my request. It represents an attempt to condense the mainstream biology definition as tersely as possible.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718450346738 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718450345747 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47t5p555t4 | life-is-a-selfsustaining-chemical-s | 0 | "Life is a self-sustaining chemical system capable of Darwinian evolution." | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718436114748 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This definition is often credited to NASA astrobiologist Gerald Joyce.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718436399399 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718436398275 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | qnrj41papl | {"NO": 342.4455345179446, "YES": 2920.172404664827} | 0.10496035420062762 | will-miri-receive-more-than-1-billi | 3169.7975450394374 | Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030? | 1893538740000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9444389791664407 | False | basic | public | 1718436784371 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "MIRI:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Refers to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Single Year:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The funding amount must be received within one calendar year (January 1 to December 31).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.016896237392519345, "month": -0.3950396457993724} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.01153714665652, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719752420281 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719752417190 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8e73rp9cl9 | {"NO": 670.2800625998359, "YES": 1491.9136877222159} | 0.31 | will-a-single-company-in-sp-500-hav-g9148wu0rb | 9171.46975975543 | Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035? | 2051305140000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.606760203775824 | False | basic | public | 1718436957761 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, it is enough that the condition holds at any moment before January 1, 2035, and after June 15, 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A related market (for year 2030): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-a-single-company-in-sp-500-hav?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-a-single-company-in-sp-500-hav?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09210288002256034, "month": -0.19} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 161.3020518304497, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1720104749415 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 22 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720104746255 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | 9wzckc1x4j | {"NO": 100.85622791698006, "YES": 9915.104110607226} | 0.010069551446710416 | uk-general-election-2024-will-refor-yaf9owhft4 | 16319.705766612908 | UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 6,000,000 votes? | 1720479540000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849914003102423 | False | basic | public | 1718438508039 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two weeks ago, Nigel Farage returned as leader of Reform UK and said that his party would win over 4 million votes. This seemed like a very bold claim, but Manifold's predictors think that there's a good chance he's right:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "JgtylACtp9Te19fxofC5", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now Farage has upped the ante and said that Reform UK will win more than 6", "type": "text"}, {"text": " million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " votes!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/reform-leader-nigel-farage-says-he-is-now-leader-of-the-opposition", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/reform-leader-nigel-farage-says-he-is-now-leader-of-the-opposition", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will he be proven right? Will there be more than 6,000,000 votes for Reform UK candidates?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.33993044855328985, "week": -0.6499304485532896, "month": -0.4899304485532896} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 271.15184522008985, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 7305.579822371114 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720211698676 | 0 | 55 | 15 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720211695571 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hlwncdidm6 | in-2050-what-physicist-will-i-consi | 0 | In 2050, what physicist will I consider to be the next generation's great explainer after Feynman, Susskind and Carroll? | 2556140340000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1718448662300 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have long consider Richard Feynman and Leonard Susskind as two of my personal heroes and both the Feynman Lectures on Physics and Susskinds The Theoretical Minimum havebeen very influential for me. With his series The Biggest Ideas in the Universe, Sean Carroll has - in my mind - cemented himself as the current generations great explainer.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The quesion is, in 26 years, who will I consider to the next great explainer after Carroll?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The are all born roughly 24 years apart from each other, each being active in an overlapping fashion. So we're probably looking for a physicist born somewhere around 1987-1995 (though no hard limit exists). ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please add your best candidates.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If I am dead or otherwise rendered incapable to resolve this market when it closes, please resolve it as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | komplexkonjugat | 1718449752701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "doi7dcmard", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1000, "userId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1000, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hlwncdidm6", "createdTime": 1718448662300, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718449751790 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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score progression rate to 5% annually or lower (on average).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reducing the buildup of non-calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reducing the buildup of calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in the buildup of plaque in other organs (non-heart) of the body compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The intervention can be any combination of therapies, which may include but are not limited to statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. The clinical trial must include at least 2000 adults, with no more than 70% belonging to the same ethnic group, ensuring at least 30% representation from other ethnic groups. The trial should ideally be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study or a meta-analysis of such studies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a clinical study demonstrates at least two of the above criteria with respect to another therapy, or set of therapies, that are known to slow atherosclerosis to a greater extent than \"statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor\", then this also qualifies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trial cannot focus exclusively on a specific subset of the disease population (e.g. hypercholesterolemia), it must be roughly representative of either the general adult population, the population with established ASCVD, or a subset with high risk factors. Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.23876245393825746} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2112265892867127, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522340441 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522337267 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 3dr21pnhu1 | {"NO": 25.68106449280477, "YES": 389.3919585304485} | 0.06187119631565666 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-e72ig6jzqn | 335 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2038? | 2151442740000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718452005106 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2038.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gE3rRVZU4CPQFKGrHLJb", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "o0PbcHUo2ZMROqR0YCj1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-2yc43pefpa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dr21pnhu1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-e72ig6jzqn"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ipliz5w6oh", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-8jiog6bcdi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "6nq3mhsjjf", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-ytue38kmod"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4z80i9hig9", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-isx1ei11kd"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xozm2i9egd", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-bqwj84nn7p"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, cryopreservation is defined as cooling below at least -10 degrees centigrade. In order to qualify as a \"successful revival from cryopreservation\", at least the brain of the individual must have been continuously cooled below -10C for a duration of at least 12 months and subsequently returned to normal function for a period of at least 3 months.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The cryopreservation of other organs of the body is not a requirement for this market. A return to normal function, however, must occur within a body broadly similar to the original (e.g. original cryopreserved/revived body, replacement biological body, replacement robotic body, ...).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.00993550792014851, "month": -0.43812880368434337} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.571947402478628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719912319044 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912314922 | 1718453842863 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wvfgn7dp2i | {"NO": 76.3146559793885, "YES": 131.0364290012767} | 0.36804560721977697 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-zumqdsi62x | 340.7394727962787 | Will we get fusion drives before 2043? | 2309209140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718452227740 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2043, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. 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23k7n17j69 | how-much-oil-will-be-spilled-in-sin-rtbtmyb2yl | 690.2281985190276 | How much oil will be spilled in Singapore? 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0.4999999999999997 | t22tvwu40b | {"NO": 9322.783999891795, "YES": 107.26409621971447} | 1 | will-the-boston-celtics-beat-the-da-g4p91e860v | 30152.53070008321 | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the NBA finals on Monday, June 17? | 1718679771653 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.853344426086615 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718456462605 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 340.9575530150387, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718679771653 | 1000 | Bruce54df | 1718679771653 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 58 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718678731177 | 0.78 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4921307716448086 | b0jkbmaqgk | {"NO": 1453.8819365450183, "YES": 1548.3477689304207} | 0.4764098414564852 | will-vietnam-execute-someone-for-fr | 50 | Will Vietnam execute someone for fraud? | 1798822740000 | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.122449838478845 | False | basic | public | 1718456468846 | Timothy Bandors | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's a rare verdict - she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court's way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Truong My Lan or another bigwig in Vietnam is executed for white collar crimes before 2027. This will resolve earlier if the state executes her or someone else for white collar crime. This market resolves NO if there is no state execution of someone for white collar crimes before 2027. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -0.023590158543514816} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | TimothyBandors | 1718538911946 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690819422060 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718538908868 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5371479424150024 | fowtbqt3a6 | {"NO": 69611.4324001685, "YES": 38912.982504420586} | 0.6749077350738235 | will-trumps-vp-pick-be-one-of-the-c | 173761.22105901322 | Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance) | 1722409140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7207611648327691 | False | plus | public | 1718461435027 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced as one of the following three people:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Doug Burgum (ND Governor)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These are widely considered the top contenders as of today (mid-June). Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/briefing/donald-trump-vice-president-pick.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/briefing/donald-trump-vice-president-pick.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves NO (that includes if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate, for example).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Stralor/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.02402779153419954, "week": 0.037344689068241954, "month": 0.1749077350738235} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2995.1092322210357, "platformFee": 1995.1092322210354, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3251.548663189422 | 51000 | jack | 1720242148107 | 0 | 405 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242148107 | 1718680451042 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999991 | w855llkczw | {"NO": 994.9874371066222, "YES": 10.050378152592117} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-jblgtrfuyr | 924.0376400927424 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 17 than it closed on Jun9e 14? | 1718654541242 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718461565511 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.247986257223109, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718654541242 | 100 | JimFix | 1718654541242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718649156461 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | gwh3sonzbi | {"NO": 933.7948095984542, "YES": 1070.899077314445} | 0.4658041887065554 | openai-becomes-an-agent-during-2024 | 218.6286732373536 | ChatGPT becomes an agent during 2024 releasing a set of direct action-enabling integrations including Gmail, Google Cal. | 1719125940000 | dauqpzeyV3YzOOiI56ljlYc55Op2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57106189095174 | False | basic | public | 1718461638287 | Mikko Kiiskila | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Essentially moving to being able to start doing your work/tasks for you including writing your emails for you and sending them out on the backend without needing to leave the ChatGPT UI.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03419581129344462} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.18222102384408, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikkoKiiskila | 1719124459626 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJY6qHeR5pIze2FAatEnDm8vApMZhjH07o8ZoKo-3d7=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705370034961 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719124456598 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 0kayd0v535 | {"NO": 1128.1521496355333, "YES": 886.4052604279198} | 0 | will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e1-a-son | 14098.196606226531 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E1 ("A Son for a Son") be rated >8.7 on IMDB, 2 days after release? (S1 premiere = 8.7) | 1718624625905 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572591977295524 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718463329605 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E1 (\"A Son for a Son\") IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21912342/?ref_=ttep_ep1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (June 18th), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDD (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD S1:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 259.8019191468907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718739107606 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1718624625905 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718614202494 | 1718739101107 | 0.56 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 7deud5hnlc | {"NO": 1126.9287374196854, "YES": 887.3675564345687} | 0.59 | what-percent-of-mop-will-make-tst-g | 737.5655742791795 | What percent of eligible people will make USA TST group? | 1719115140000 | o9FcqlxIeJWuI0XwvdE395elUPJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572551486430218 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718463361346 | Hannah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year, 52 people are eligible to make TST group. Usually around 24 people make it but last year it was 38 (out of 66). This resolves to 100*(number of people in TST group)/(number of people eligible for TST group).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.030534770948039358, "month": 0.08999999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.36284253408719, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719784872638 | 1000 | hannah | 1719115140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1PLl0EoxFSsucTUFdSIyrIoYG3tDdrc82EZaJo0w=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1665174250995 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719038526062 | 0.59 | o9FcqlxIeJWuI0XwvdE395elUPJ3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | co5o27du0c | {"NO": 119.3827408116938, "YES": 83.7642018604123} | 0.587666933311353 | will-the-movie-about-trump-the-appr | 20 | Will the movie about Trump "The Apprentice" get a US distributor before August 1, 2024? | 1722484740000 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718463646061 | Stephen S Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The movie doesn't have to be released by August 1, though. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-apprentice-trump-movie-1235919872/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-apprentice-trump-movie-1235919872/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.087666933311353} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6172591883062044, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StephenSPower | 1718529249603 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696858950851 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718529246440 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gw7i95w1uu | which-women-vote-for-trump | 11829.588382223475 | Which women will vote for Trump? | 1730879940000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718472737564 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Trump be able to persuade a majority of women in any demographic group to vote for him this November?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add responses! 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0.5000000000000003 | dkcdzna4a7 | {"NO": 15.370076208780949, "YES": 650.6148612514344} | 0.02307871446371735 | will-i-lose-45lbs-in-3-weeks-over-m | 663.4015060513315 | Will I lose 4.5lbs in 3 weeks over my vacation? | 1720241940000 | yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718473043202 | phaen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm trying to lose weight, but I expect it'll be difficult to eat consistently over the next couple weeks as I travel. On the other hand, I'll likely be more active than usual. Will I still manage to lose weight at close to my target rate?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting weight is 241.3 lbs. In 3 weeks (traveling ~2 of them), on 2024-07-06, will I weigh 236.8 lbs or less? (If I miss weighing in that day I'll interpolate the closest on either side.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll only buy and hold Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related longer-term markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "yWwHxhG4HKB1tgPTE9se,v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.16314640513162357, "week": -0.4244619509971432, "month": -0.47692128553628266} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.5420690700522055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 511 | 100 | phaen | 1720240900010 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644215050730 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720240896767 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6ef1evkoo5 | which-prompts-will-freetier-image-g | 2824.135986263796 | Which prompts will free-tier image generation be able to produce by end of 2024? | 1735682340000 | XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718475297876 | Dark Speculator | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will image generators become good enough for these prompts?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option will resolve to YES when either", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will put the prompt in image generation AI tool and the result will obey the prompt.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone post a public link to such generation he made itself.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any free publicly available image generation tool is OK, except esoteric ones (custom fine-tuning model or one with less than 1k MAU). Tools that internally alters prompts are fine, as long as it is 100% automated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No additional text (except \"please generate an image of ...\" when needed for multimodal models), explicit feedback or reference images allowed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The quality of the generation will be judged by me, and I may post a poll on unclear cases.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.63375171059623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | 0482 | 1718914265582 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteS8SwkT3ywrOgne_djZRPozlXiVaKvKDJhqwdJd3Ox=s96-c | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "al8ss8988f", "prob": 0.41233779882259536, "text": "A cluttered room with a really small cat in it, so small it's hard to spot it on first sight", "index": 0, "poolNo": 209.4125494351104, "userId": "XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 298.4539377825901, "textFts": "'cat':8 'clutter':2 'first':20 'hard':15 'realli':6 'room':3 'sight':21 'small':7,12 'spot':17", "contractId": "6ef1evkoo5", "createdTime": 1718475297876, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.08766220117740464, "month": -0.08766220117740464}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.08766220117740464, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740464}, {"id": "adknp7i8ks", "prob": 0.9411150442449768, "text": "A person running with one shoe on", "index": 1, "poolNo": 999.4456683948227, "userId": "XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.53466494119609, "textFts": "'one':5 'person':2 'run':3 'shoe':6", "contractId": "6ef1evkoo5", "createdTime": 1718475297876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.44111504424497683, "month": 0.44111504424497683}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.44111504424497683, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.44111504424497683}, {"id": "83mkxc4vp3", "prob": 0.6201607795495802, "text": "A dog with a hat on his tail, but no hat on his head", "index": 2, "poolNo": 319.4421749754908, "userId": "XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 195.65356391902642, "textFts": "'dog':2 'hat':5,11 'head':14 'tail':8", "contractId": "6ef1evkoo5", "createdTime": 1718475297876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.12016077954958015, "month": 0.12016077954958015}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.12016077954958015, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.12016077954958015}, {"id": "7cu9ktioxc", "prob": 0.15596251014026552, "text": "Exactly 17 soccer balls", "index": 3, "poolNo": 107.46554567028738, "userId": "XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 581.5817489240212, "textFts": "'17':2 'ball':4 'exact':1 'soccer':3", "contractId": "6ef1evkoo5", "createdTime": 1718475297876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3440374898597345, "month": -0.3440374898597345}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3440374898597345, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.3440374898597345}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691595630760 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718646409845 | 1718914264189 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0p5m44k3wx | paramount-deal-talks-whos-got-this | 120 | Paramount Global acquisition: WHO YA GOT? | 1767254340000 | NIDSXnqp4yUVKjlSF1NMrUw0Dbx1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | plus | public | 1718478488458 | protomer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The situation: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One woman (Shari Redstone) controls a company (National Amusements) that owns ~5% of Paramount shares but has 77% of its voting shares.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you want to acquire Paramount, you have these options:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Direct approach", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Go to Paramount’s board of directors and pay cash to get all the stock at a premium. Cost ~ $10–12B.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Indirect approach: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy National Amusements’ stake in Paramount (~$1B) or buy National Amusements outright (~$2B). Now you control 77% of the Paramount votes, but it’s through National Amusements and you still have to deal with Paramount’s board, judicial oversight, minority shareholders, etc. etc. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either way you’re dealing with Redstone in some capacity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "————————", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " represent current consortia. A team wins if any member acquires Paramount.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other outcome", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " includes other suitors or no deal by the end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when a deal is announced. Does not need to be finalized.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "————————", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TEAM 1: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Apollo Global Management and Sony Pictures Entertainment. Currently trying the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "direct approach ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "of talking to Paramount’s board about buying the whole company for cash.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TEAM 2: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Skydance Media, Redbird Capital, and KKR & Co. Have been trying an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "indirect approach", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": buy Paramount’s controlling company to get to Paramount, but conditioning the deal on reaching an understanding with Paramount’s board. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TEAM 3: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Edgar Bronfman Jr. backed by private-equity firm Bain Capital. 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0.5000000000000006 | hfdme8891s | {"NO": 846.1834516782907, "YES": 11.817768334001812} | 1 | will-the-boston-celtics-beat-the-da-gog7lvd2xw | 1319.7805325672305 | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks by more than 6.5 points in Game 5 of the NBA finals? | 1718679544243 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718482809765 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.931385352175674, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718679544243 | 100 | kurt | 1718679544243 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718678939151 | 1718679523335 | 0.99 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | q7387ezii1 | {"NO": 57.269045005125015, "YES": 174.61440118488312} | 0.24697340817592472 | will-rileytheno1vegan-learn-logic-a | 310.14848282644897 | Will rileytheno1vegan learn Logic and answer Ask Yourself’s two questions successfully, before Fall? | 1724299140000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718485119543 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the Ask Yourself discord, rileytheno1vegan has recently pretensed to know logic but not actually knowing logic. In response, AY said this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMdLX6e6PN5.png?alt=media&token=831895cb-9f38-412b-b8e0-c802a983edfa", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2530265918240753} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.661926280554724, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Bayesian | 1719209589234 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719209586189 | 1719207793090 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jvksflk5yl | {"NO": 32.448293621213075, "YES": 308.18261560177984} | 0.09525939291660378 | will-anyone-besides-joe-biden-or-do | 411.8331591849078 | Will anyone besides Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President of the United States in 2024? | 1730879940000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718485577120 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Question:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Will anyone besides Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President of the United States during the election that will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024?\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if a candidate other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins the 2024 United States presidential election. The market resolves to \"No\" if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins the election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Caveats:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Media Reports:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Unless the election is disputed, the market will resolve based on credible media reports within 48 hours following the conclusion of the election. If credible media sources declare a winner and the election is not disputed, the market will resolve accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unforeseen Circumstances:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If either Joe Biden or Donald Trump is unable to run due to health issues, legal matters, or any other unforeseen circumstances, the market will not resolve until the election concludes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Election Disputes:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " In case of significant election disputes or legal challenges, the market will resolve based on the final, legally recognized winner as determined by the appropriate legal processes and authorities, including the Electoral College and Congress, if the dispute could lead to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Third-Party or Independent Candidates:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Any third-party or independent candidate who is officially recognized and wins the election will count towards a \"Yes\" resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Write-In Candidates:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If a write-in candidate is officially certified as the winner, this will also count towards a \"Yes\" resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Candidate Viability:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are unable to run or are no longer serious contenders for any reason, the market will resolve accordingly when neither remains a serious contender.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4047406070833962} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.122069791537419, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719570916905 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719570913818 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pjwjhjkf6h | {"NO": 60.29243453902021, "YES": 165.85828846450346} | 0.2666028820879816 | will-a-wellknown-public-figure-clai | 94 | Will a well-known public figure claim to have had a verified extraterrestrial encounter by the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718486279166 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if a well-known public figure (such as a politician, celebrity, or scientist) publicly claims to have had an extraterrestrial encounter, and this claim is covered and verified by major credible news outlets, by December 31, 2024. The market resolves to \"No\" if no such verified claims are made within the specified timeframe.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caveats:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of Verified Encounter:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " For the purpose of this market, a \"verified extraterrestrial encounter\" means that the claim must be taken seriously and reported by multiple major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, CNN) and not immediately debunked or dismissed as a hoax.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Well-Known Public Figure:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The claim must come from an individual who is widely recognized either nationally or internationally. This includes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Politicians:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Current or former government officials, elected representatives, or political leaders.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Celebrities:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Prominent actors, musicians, athletes, or influencers with substantial media presence.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scientists:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Esteemed researchers, academics, or experts with a significant reputation in their field.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Public Claim:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The individual must make the claim publicly through a press conference, interview, official statement, or social media post.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timing:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The claim must be made and reported publicly by December 31, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2333971179120184} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.648579119148885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1718553780782 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718553777719 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nauduiz8h9 | {"NO": 97.53147835994808, "YES": 102.5309999208067} | 0.4875050993973927 | will-a-wellknown-public-figure-clai-ippm9sig67 | 29 | Will a well-known public figure claim to have had a verified extraterrestrial encounter by the end of 2026? | 1798790340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718486363355 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if a well-known public figure (such as a politician, celebrity, or scientist) publicly claims to have had an extraterrestrial encounter, and this claim is covered and verified by major credible news outlets, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to \"No\" if no such verified claims are made within the specified timeframe.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caveats:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of Verified Encounter:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " For the purpose of this market, a \"verified extraterrestrial encounter\" means that the claim must be taken seriously and reported by multiple major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, CNN) and not immediately debunked or dismissed as a hoax.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Well-Known Public Figure:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The claim must come from an individual who is widely recognized either nationally or internationally. This includes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Politicians:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Current or former government officials, elected representatives, or political leaders.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Celebrities:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Prominent actors, musicians, athletes, or influencers with substantial media presence.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scientists:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Esteemed researchers, academics, or experts with a significant reputation in their field.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Public Claim:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The individual must make the claim publicly through a press conference, interview, official statement, or social media post.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timing:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The claim must be made and reported publicly by December 31, 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012494900602607273} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9758676628456244, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1718553794022 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718553790974 | 0 |
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