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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | ahak1hnl9o | {"NO": 74.63364031348188, "YES": 133.9878365573117} | 0.35774667801678467 | will-prince-harry-be-formally-strip-86vkiyvjw3 | 35 | Will Prince Harry be formally stripped of his royal title by the end of 2030? | 1925020740000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718486712765 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if, by December 31, 2030, official confirmation is received from the British Royal Family, or a representative body thereof, that Prince Harry has been stripped of his royal title.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official Confirmation:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The confirmation must come from the British Royal Family or a recognized authority within the Royal Family. This includes formal announcements made by Buckingham Palace, the British Monarchy's official website, or a statement from an authorized representative of the Royal Family.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Formal Decision:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The loss of the title must be explicitly due to a formal decision by the Royal Family or a governing body with the authority to make such decisions. This does not include technicalities, legal changes unrelated to the Royal Family's decision, or Prince Harry's personal choice to renounce his title.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The decision must be reported by credible sources, including direct reports of official statements or announcements as specified above. Media reports alone do not constitute sufficient evidence unless they directly relay an official statement or announcement.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ambiguity:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Any ambiguity in reports or statements regarding the status of Prince Harry's title should be resolved in favor of a \"No\" outcome, unless clarified and confirmed by an official source as described above.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.14225332198321533} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.012163442688292, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1718552500139 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718552497091 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nn08z5lypa | {"NO": 57.76145182170852, "YES": 173.12584231550943} | 0.25017163476904225 | will-major-tech-company-announce-fu | 75 | Will major tech company announce functional brain-computer interface able to read complex human thoughts by end of 2030? | 1925107140000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718487658853 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full question: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Will a major tech company publicly announce the development of a functional brain-computer interface (BCI) capable of reading and interpreting complex human thoughts by the end of 2030?\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if, by December 31, 2030, a major tech company (such as Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, or a comparable entity) publicly announces the development of a functional brain-computer interface (BCI) that can read and interpret complex human thoughts with a high degree of accuracy. The market resolves to \"No\" if no such announcement is made within this timeframe.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Major Tech Company:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The announcement must come from a well-established tech company known for significant advancements in technology and innovation, such as Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, or similar.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Functional BCI:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The brain-computer interface must be described as capable of reading and interpreting complex human thoughts, not just basic signals or rudimentary commands. The announcement must include details on the functionality and intended applications of the BCI.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Public Announcement:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The information must be officially announced through credible channels such as a press release, official company blog, major tech conferences (e.g., CES, TechCrunch Disrupt), or widely recognized media outlets.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The announcement must be reported by multiple major news outlets and verified by experts in the field. Speculative reports, leaks, or unconfirmed rumors do not constitute sufficient evidence.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples of Complex Human Thoughts:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thoughts related to specific memories or detailed plans.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Interpreting abstract concepts or emotions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Understanding complex language or problem-solving processes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timing:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved based on information available by December 31, 2030. This extended timeframe allows for significant technological advancements and maintains prolonged interest in the potential development of such a groundbreaking technology.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.24982836523095775} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.874157684490549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1718496895474 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718496892413 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | dm0p41bsnt | {"NO": 71.73881862773287, "YES": 139.3945452585721} | 0.33977964120518683 | complex-communication-with-a-nonhum | 55 | Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050 | 2556140340000 | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.4905294020607105 | False | play | public | 1718489564116 | Elliot Davies | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By end of the year 2050, will it be possible for humans to ask a non-human animal \"What do you think about the way humans treat other animals?\" and get a complex thoughtful response. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Utilizing AI or computer technology to facilitate communication with animals could effectively address and potentially resolve this question with a positive outcome. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I reserve the right to modify or expand on the resolution criteria, in good faith, for the first 6 weeks of market creation. I will not be betting on this market. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.16022035879481317} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5838827171647694, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ElliotDavies | 1718633821036 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669130705908 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718602009090 | 1718633819659 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10469313789667278 | w9m0z0vxkc | {"NO": 899.8090195193232, "YES": 1635.4388939368218} | 0.06044815810378904 | will-nemotron4340b-rank-higher-than | 727.6321230563346 | Will nemotron-4-340b rank higher than GPT-4-0125-preview on LMSYS leaderboard at any point before 07/15/2024? | 1721098740000 | a1t2fEDH94fyS9FTV2D1nREuVpj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.227293074212248 | False | basic | public | 1718491515807 | Emanuel R | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43955184189621094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.25467244113114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EmanuelR | 1718666710558 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701823118470 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718666707505 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gca1uwce9t | {"NO": 95.19243458076987, "YES": 105.0503650215511} | 0.47538505639064443 | will-luffy-find-the-one-piece-befor | 15 | Will Luffy find the One Piece before Bitcoin reaches $100K? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718492782677 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if an issue of the One Piece manga featuring Luffy finding the One Piece treasure releases before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD for the first time on multiple exchanges. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.024614943609355566} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5030517399086635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718592206152 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718592203088 | 1718492962954 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46542251422648917 | lc0z7npcjm | {"NO": 3911.767320400068, "YES": 4096.771048518407} | 0.4539456823476175 | will-macos-sequoia-15-be-the-last-m | 100 | Will macOS Sequoia (15) be the last major version of macOS to support Macs with Intel CPU’s? | 1748786340000 | wgMBQd06kLbT8Ce73b0oUelZwfQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.740041080573723 | False | basic | public | 1718496980142 | Sky Velleity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the next major version of macOS (name unknown but version 16) is not officially provided with X86-64 binaries for Intel Macs, and the iMac Pro (2017), Mac mini (2018), Mac Pro (2019) et al. have no official support for running the latest version of macOS, question resolves yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at least some of these devices can be updated to the latest version after the release of macOS 16, regardless of feature parity, question resolves no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date will be extended if next major version of macOS is not announced at WWDC 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04605431765238249} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 4000 | SkyVelleity | 1718629481305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJu7ngEUVYGJZmNny19ak2sEtKswe2Fy7DdHZgARBfv=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697643860978 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718629478156 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | gaqaqt1zy6 | {"NO": 237.4729821121798, "YES": 42.11005357769966} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-srh8d5hb84 | 160.965350781601 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 21 than it closed on June 14? | 1718600340000 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718502348747 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.301352748195771, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719000242828 | 100 | JimFix | 1718600340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718599150441 | 0.85 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.23194026142452565 | lv41nqg73m | {"NO": 8709.77774341809, "YES": 14663.883974285998} | 0.15208652485990726 | will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe | 6539.995634349736 | Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024? | 1735718340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.878112728558203 | False | plus | public | 1718511663805 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rock paper scissors poker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Rock-Paper-Scissors-Poker-a77d63a1537941ebb15f8f81194dbabb?pvs=4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a poker variant with simultaneous betting we devised during Manifest. Read the rules ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Rock-Paper-Scissors-Poker-a77d63a1537941ebb15f8f81194dbabb?pvs=4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The game is simpler, faster-paced, and more social than regular poker—the pickleball to hold-em's tennis. I think it could catch on...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I search for the phrase \"rock paper scissors poker\" on Google Trends now it says \"your search doesn't have enough data to show here\". Will this cease being true due to sufficient data at any point during 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: There must be data for each of the Google Trends subsections, \"Interest over time\", \"Interest by region\", \"Related topics\", and \"Related queries\" when \"Past 30 days\" is selected. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "See this query", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&q=rock%20paper%20scissors%20poker", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.04595301293870993, "month": -0.34791347514009274} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 108.78757729168957, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SG | 1719913001296 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912998015 | 1719868236338 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.1695208471985372 | hiypdy59y6 | {"NO": 1399.9823575845237, "YES": 2819.2417662465177} | 0.09203513706118999 | will-it-be-widely-understood-that-t | 19816.67685414995 | Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035? | 2051337540000 | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.23774380389093 | False | basic | public | 1718516653959 | AdamK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is currently widely understood that no single entity within the United States has the ability to violently defy the jurisdiction of the government without being militarily overpowered. Following the description of Max Weber, the US government currently generally succeeds in holding the exclusive right to use, threaten, or authorize physical force against residents of its territory.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market gauges whether this state of affairs will change before 2035, such that among informed observers, the US government clearly and obviously no longer holds a monopoly on violence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market intends to have a high bar for what would qualify for a YES resolution. Here are some examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The government has de facto ceded law enforcement, within a region larger than 25 sq. kilometers, to be fully and exclusively managed by an entity which is not accountable to the US legal system, not counting Native tribes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US has lost more than 25 sq. kilometers of territory within its borders in war.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Organized criminal entities act in open defiance of the law, in a manner that reveals an inability, even with reasonable military effort, for the US government to control its territory. This is intended as a high bar which no organization in modern US history (including the Mafia) has met.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US Federal Government is toppled or fractured, such that it is no longer a unified political and military entity.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything else which clearly indicates that the government has lost its de facto monopoly on violence", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[For the record, I really, really don't want this to happen!]", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.0020351370611896152, "month": -0.40796486293881} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 238.23855775439733, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | AdamK | 1719873777276 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | 75 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687620319599 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719873773793 | 1718609590509 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 5gxsozo0sl | {"NO": 165.9329014430109, "YES": 6026.532359186418} | 0 | la-union-el-salvador-records-a-lot | 6057.445593953642 | La Unión, El Salvador records a lot of rain in June 2024? | 1719892740000 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87999333857231 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718516755425 | JRP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaJTNwXjN-O.png?alt=media&token=12a4ecf2-2239-4dad-9386-8f012d15d3d9", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General info on CAG: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-14-central-american-gyre-explained", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-14-central-american-gyre-explained", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://www.snet.gob.sv/cpm/estacion.php?estacion=N2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.snet.gob.sv/cpm/estacion.php?estacion=N2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "30 day accumulated rainfall chart shows 1000+ mm in rain with the chart ending on ~ June 30 (approximate depending on when last data point for June is available which should be about July 1).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the chart doesn’t scale or something happens to make the data unavailable I’ll try to get data from satellite sources (IMERG or similar) to resolve.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise this should resolve NO if it doesn’t get so much rainfall for June.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5799999999999998, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 73.09049753128639, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719898575895 | 1000 | parhizj | 1719898593233 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684698640145 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719885476248 | 1719898591961 | 0.03 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 1gua596nj1 | {"NO": 229.12878474779035, "YES": 43.643578047198844} | 0.8399999999999981 | one-month-from-today-will-not-like | 411.8664791216631 | One month from today will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar still be in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100? | 1721188740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718516872542 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3399999999999981} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.64158970104528, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719123224530 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719123221491 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | mjcq7wtphk | {"NO": 81.58294296108801, "YES": 122.5746416719685} | 0.39960770062851925 | will-donald-trump-make-a-tweet-on-t | 109.09230266413941 | Will Donald Trump make a tweet on Twitter/X before the USA's 2024 election voting begins? | 1733029140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718517063895 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10039229937148075} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7654841030735127, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719009424367 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719009421209 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mxwlpaf0q7 | {"NO": 22.303923922010313, "YES": 448.35160104413933} | 0 | will-donald-trump-file-an-appeal-in | 480 | Will Donald Trump file an appeal in his New York hush money trial before he debates Joe Biden? | 1719544631466 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718517160159 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.72868179057573, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719544631466 | 100 | strutheo | 1719544631466 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719544626978 | 0.05 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999867 | gcma0qv358 | {"NO": 994.9874371066213, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | will-kelly-jean-be-on-jstlk-s-strea | 1323.4321571332687 | Will Kelly Jean be on jstlk 's stream again before the end of June? | 1718687688625 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718517396439 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting June 16th 2024 onward", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.101932689139918, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718687688625 | 100 | strutheo | 1718687688625 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718687684713 | 1718687657128 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | fp6yagaj1u | {"NO": 993.1045849361753, "YES": 1043.4205023092047} | 0.1341545975101782 | will-the-case-for-training-frontier | 51 | Will "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumeria..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899162682492605 | False | public | 1718522016896 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumerian-only corpus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PkqGxkm8XRASJ35bF/the-case-for-training-frontier-ais-on-sumerian-only-corpus-1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.0058454024898218215} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5308764641546829, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718978940637 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718978937545 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4z3oefo28x | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-ksgei86eob | 932.0269652171049 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Tue. Jun. 18th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Jun. 17th? | 1718740800000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718523496846 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Tue. Jun. 18th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Jun. 17th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ASIA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikkei 225 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NI225:INDEXNIKKEI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SSE Composite Index (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/000001:SHA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hang Seng Index (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HSI:INDEXHANGSENG", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BSE SENSEX (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SENSEX:INDEXBOM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NIFTY 50 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EUROPE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FTSE 100 (LSE) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "FTSE 100 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE", "class": 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"listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EURO STOXX 50 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IBEX 35 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/INDI:INDEXBME", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SMI (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": 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"break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russell 2000", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX", "type": 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"The intervention can be any combination of therapies, which may include but are not limited to statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. The clinical trial must include at least 2000 adults, with no more than 70% belonging to the same ethnic group, ensuring at least 30% representation from other ethnic groups. The trial should ideally be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study or a meta-analysis of such studies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a clinical study demonstrates at least two of the above criteria with respect to another therapy, or set of therapies, that are known to slow atherosclerosis to a greater extent than \"statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor\", then this also qualifies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trial cannot focus exclusively on a specific subset of the disease population (e.g. hypercholesterolemia), it must be roughly representative of either the general adult population, the population with established ASCVD, or a subset with high risk factors. Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2151171005743051} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522346965 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522343850 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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i6iwnxebsp | how-much-antiesg-activism-will-sp-5 | 370 | [Anti-woke activism] How many anti-ESG proposals will large companies face in 2025 relative to 2024? | 1753945140000 | NIDSXnqp4yUVKjlSF1NMrUw0Dbx1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.727098853470618 | False | plus | public | 1718544148040 | protomer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many anti-ESG proposals will large companies face in 2025 relative to 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• Based on number of anti-ESG measures up for vote at S&P 500 companies in Jan–May of 2025 vs. 2024 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "——", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the rapid proliferation of ESG proposals over the last few years, companies are now muting their focus on ESG and DEI initiatives as anti-woke activists attack companies for their progressive stances.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year shareholders have voted on 70 measures opposing traditional ESG initiatives at S&P 500 companies. 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57dmojnaa7 | how-many-mh3-cards-will-be-in-the-w | 181.29562953916616 | How many MH3 cards will be in the winning deck at Pro Tour MH3? | 1719439140000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | x9drs3x1ce | public | 1718548789296 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pro Tour MH3 will be taking place June 28-30 in Amsterdam. The formats are MH3 draft and Modern.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the range that includes the number of cards from MH3 included in the Modern deck list (main deck and sideboard) registered by the winning player, including reprints.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this market closes June 26, the day deck lists are due. The goal is to predict how much of an impact the set has on the metagame as a whole. I will create a new market for betting on specific decks.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2181482380614055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719786911810 | 100 | MartyDettmann | 1719439140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 4 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "djz0t52dk3", "prob": 0.08392378050482978, "text": "[0,7]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.73747793254102, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.37458517975146, "textFts": "'0':1 '7':2", "contractId": "57dmojnaa7", "resolverId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "createdTime": 1718548789296, "probChanges": {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.00607621949517019, "month": -0.1660762194951702}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.00607621949517019, "resolutionTime": 1719786911810, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.1660762194951702}, {"id": "x9drs3x1ce", "prob": 0.4474238769060351, "text": "[8,15]", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25.976037211981055, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.08084922780179, "textFts": "'15':2 '8':1", "contractId": "57dmojnaa7", "resolverId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "createdTime": 1718548789296, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.03369176974649657, "month": 0.19742387690603508}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.03369176974649657, "resolutionTime": 1719786911810, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.19742387690603508}, {"id": "1x2rvf9lpa", "prob": 0.36, "text": "[16,23]", "index": 2, "poolNo": 21.650635094610966, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.49001794597505, "textFts": "'16':1 '23':2", "contractId": "57dmojnaa7", "resolverId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "createdTime": 1718548789296, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.04838107115037055, "month": 0.10999999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.04838107115037055, "resolutionTime": 1719786911810, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.10999999999999999}, {"id": "k5nq7auyit", "prob": 0.10865234258913531, "text": "> 23", "index": 3, "poolNo": 10.078719543279627, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 82.68246077836258, "textFts": "'23':1", "contractId": "57dmojnaa7", "resolverId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "createdTime": 1718548789296, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.008613081908703732, "month": -0.1413476574108647}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.008613081908703732, "resolutionTime": 1719786911810, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.1413476574108647}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719309028022 | 1719743467328 | {"x9drs3x1ce": 100} | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | cffhvweqdm | {"NO": 908.5556142434712, "YES": 1100.6480883756046} | 0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-nc6uyjiqem | 104 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 38 and 39? | 1719168065171 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57176162374715 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718551671442 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 38”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 38”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3519116243952647, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719168068583 | 1000 | dwax | 1719168065171 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719167252925 | 0.45 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | k4zrp566gt | {"NO": 9949.87437106622, "YES": 100.50378152592202} | 1 | will-the-will-jimmy-carter-become-a | 11598.385914460825 | Will the "Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?" market hit 1,000 traders before it is correctly resolved? | 1719492436121 | 8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923105 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718557303136 | Dr. Derek Harris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.77495645650612, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719492436121 | 1000 | DrDerek | 1719492436121 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682434756086 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719488778813 | 1719487964898 | 0.99 | 8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ix9mbgasos | what-deck-will-i-play-in-the-pionee | 460.93012753485016 | What deck will I play in the Pioneer Showcase Challenge on June 23, 2024? | 1719162415542 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | vmcxjix251 | public | 1718564798912 | Aryeh Zax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can see my MTGO decklists (Nykthos Ramp = Mono-Green) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.mtggoldfish.com/player/azax", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.mtggoldfish.com/player/azax", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". I've been enjoying Mono-Green but haven't had a chance to play it in a \"serious\" event yet, and I'm worried it's not as good as Phoenix.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mono-Green with e.g. a white splash still counts as Mono-Green for the purposes of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tournament is at 6am on a Sunday, which has historically been a nontrivial ask for me to participate; I haven't played either of the last two showcase challenges this season, though I did play most of them in the year before that.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.781616470525662, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719162415542 | 100 | azax | 1719162415542 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "voyqy7hpxa", "prob": 0.49514659367640745, "text": "Mono-Green", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.588648789327333, "userId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.149098282827303, "textFts": "'green':3 'mono':2 'mono-green':1", "contractId": "ix9mbgasos", "resolverId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "createdTime": 1718564798912, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2648534063235922, "week": 0.24514659367640745, "month": 0.24514659367640745}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2648534063235922, "probChangeWeek": 0.24514659367640745, "resolutionTime": 1719162415542, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.24514659367640745}, {"id": "uvxohtfhp0", "prob": 0.37000000000000005, "text": "UR Phoenix", "index": 1, "poolNo": 22.122793436137073, "userId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.66854017504419, "textFts": "'phoenix':2 'ur':1", "contractId": "ix9mbgasos", "resolverId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "createdTime": 1718564798912, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2981247304837651, "week": 0.12000000000000005, "month": 0.12000000000000005}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2981247304837651, "probChangeWeek": 0.12000000000000005, "resolutionTime": 1719162415542, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.12000000000000005}, {"id": "vmcxjix251", "prob": 0.127035736224959, "text": "Won't wake up for event", "index": 2, "poolNo": 11.01220021135506, "userId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.67364535145805, "textFts": "'event':6 'wake':3 'won':1", "contractId": "ix9mbgasos", "resolverId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "createdTime": 1718564798912, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03272136725489341, "week": -0.122964263775041, "month": -0.122964263775041}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03272136725489341, "probChangeWeek": -0.122964263775041, "resolutionTime": 1719162415542, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.122964263775041}, {"id": "l7dpshnpvb", "prob": 0.0078176700986335, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.562431724855367, "userId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 325.21191696546236, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ix9mbgasos", "resolverId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "createdTime": 1718564798912, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0005499569052794528, "week": -0.2421823299013665, "month": -0.2421823299013665}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0005499569052794528, "probChangeWeek": -0.2421823299013665, "resolutionTime": 1719162415542, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.2421823299013665}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663132225081 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719131085157 | 1718564945251 | {"vmcxjix251": 100} | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pzzjg7guhn | conditional-on-losing-the-upcoming | 2937.2664823128434 | Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power? | 2211569940000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718564868226 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predict the specific timeframe for the UK Conservative Party will return to power in the event that they lose the upcoming general election. This market focuses on the exact years within which the Conservative Party will regain a majority in the House of Commons and form the government.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. This market is contingent on the Conservative Party losing the upcoming general election, as is widely expected. 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The resolution date will be based on the official announcement of the election results and the subsequent invitation by the monarch to form the government.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve N/A if none of these criteria have been met by 31 Dec 2040, or for some other force majeure/intervening events (the UK ceases being a country etc)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.11093561476413, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1720188310630 | 0 | 22 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "68gw7wwjuv", "prob": 0.07490242460961428, "text": "Before Dec 31 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.90942038306861, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 702.8713301023284, "textFts": "'2025':4 '31':3 'dec':2", "contractId": "pzzjg7guhn", "createdTime": 1718564868227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0037781615018735726, "month": -0.42509757539038573}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0037781615018735726, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.42509757539038573}, {"id": "p37eve8ttu", "prob": 0.11005630025383357, "text": "Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027", "index": 1, "poolNo": 70.33252087596536, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 568.726948811373, "textFts": "'1':2 '2026':4 '2027':8 '31':6 'dec':7 'jan':3", "contractId": "pzzjg7guhn", "createdTime": 1718564868227, "probChanges": {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 0.0065432731601993005, "month": -0.38994369974616644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -4.163336342344337e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.0065432731601993005, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.38994369974616644}, {"id": "yg38rasq3c", "prob": 0.29366028064152994, "text": "Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029", "index": 2, "poolNo": 128.95725680043805, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 310.18029533537737, "textFts": "'1':2 '2028':4 '2029':8 '31':6 'dec':7 'jan':3", "contractId": "pzzjg7guhn", "createdTime": 1718564868227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.046909209697246296, "month": -0.20633971935847006}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.046909209697246296, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.20633971935847006}, {"id": "fliombcwko", "prob": 0.22214066872867802, "text": "Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031", "index": 3, "poolNo": 106.87927524654047, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 374.2540348232267, "textFts": "'1':2 '2030':4 '2031':8 '31':6 'dec':7 'jan':3", "contractId": "pzzjg7guhn", "createdTime": 1718564868227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.011233887049004632, "month": -0.33794963126962657}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.011233887049004632, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.33794963126962657}, {"id": "jhu4wp6onb", "prob": 0.6924030598107735, "text": "1 Jan 2032 or later", "index": 4, "poolNo": 300.0671679181872, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 133.30348760750098, "textFts": "'1':1 '2032':3 'jan':2 'later':5", "contractId": "pzzjg7guhn", "createdTime": 1718564868227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.07689741360706404, "month": 0.19240305981077355}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.07689741360706404, "totalLiquidity": 200.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.19240305981077355}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720188307561 | 1718582431922 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | pl0u5zvnum | {"NO": 147.7344548094684, "YES": 6768.901684374789} | 0 | will-taylor-swift-sing-the-1-at-her | 6557.45838851758 | Will Taylor Swift sing "the 1" at her Cardiff Eras Tour show on 18.6.24? | 1718751554491 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.872479791718295 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718568156231 | Sara | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will she sing \"the 1\" at Cardiff, either during her surprise song set or by adding it back to the main setlist?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.41237959629841, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718751554491 | 1000 | csgoldie | 1718753372804 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717185599667 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718748514152 | 1718753371350 | 0.02 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ufqvftpyzp | what-will-be-true-of-xkcds-for-june | 9268.231078748833 | What will be true of xkcd's for June 24th-June 28th? | 1719201540000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718568431955 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to be doing some travelling that is significantly more important to me than Manifold, so I'm experimenting with a new market style. I will maintain my regular market style through the comic for June 21st, and will use this new style at least through the comic for July 5th. MODERATORS SHOULD FEEL FREE TO RESOLVE ANY QUESTIONS. I AM UNLIKELY TO RESOLVE UNTIL AFTER I RETURN FROM MY TRAVELS.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I have time to resolve and the result has become clear. 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If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.61057722564334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719923579675 | 1200 | EBurk | 1719201540000 | 0 | 25 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "k83gp29nws", "prob": 0.44, "text": "The comics will have >=5 panels collectively", "index": 0, "poolNo": 88.15468035632412, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 113.43697191776636, "textFts": "'5':5 'collect':7 'comic':2 'panel':6", "contractId": "ufqvftpyzp", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718568431955, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.04233779882259525, "month": -0.13}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 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0.5 | pj9iw19s4l | {"NO": 83.76408473419534, "YES": 119.38290774300864} | 0.4123323890389117 | will-the-nigerian-minimum-wage-surp | 20 | Will the Nigerian minimum wage surpass 70,000 on approval | 1735685940000 | eRQBNWDh4CRc2iMxTCcQwmVJsVz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718569504265 | Ismail Adegbenga | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Nigerian labor union is embroiled with the Nigeria government on increasing minimum wage from the current 30,000. Labor union has proposed 250,000; the government has committed to 60,000. Labor is hoping and negotiating that the eventually approved amount is in the ballpark of 100,000.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766761096108833} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6170922569913577, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | IsmailAdegbengaujp1 | 1718625012111 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717410985895 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718625009025 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qx1iwjl2o9 | how-polyamorous-are-you | 0 | How Polyamorous are you? | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718570970374 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of a few polls I'm doing out of curiosity about manifold's ideology. 1/5 is low, 5/5 is high.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm leaving this undefined on purpose, as there are various competing definitions. Answer based on how much you think the label currently describes you based on your own preferred definition, and ideally post that definition in the comments. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Joshua | 1718723269963 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718723268860 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ilb54ycnlx | how-libertarian-are-you | 0 | How Libertarian are you? | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718570973568 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of a few polls I'm doing out of curiosity about manifold's ideology. 1/5 is low, 5/5 is high.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm leaving this undefined on purpose, as there are various competing definitions. Answer based on how much you think the label currently describes you based on your own preferred definition, and ideally post that definition in the comments. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Joshua | 1718571151000 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718571149974 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4mghpedfon | ufc-fight-night-whittaker-vs-aliske | 10014.719680636792 | UFC Fight Night - Whittaker vs. Aliskerov | 1719091890408 | wDSneO1pBGOVpAgHXs4sWK7xkf12 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718572141557 | Walker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.51024239645793, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719091890408 | 1100 | walker75 | 1719091890408 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLDNva9gDRFv9ewuQeAwVLujKmkR643x73OrJKnGgVHNGqosg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "gz0tutgf7m", "prob": 0.98, "text": "Robert Whittaker (YES) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (NO)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1355.963607308052, "userId": "wDSneO1pBGOVpAgHXs4sWK7xkf12", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.49931678432779, "textFts": "'aliskerov':6 'ikram':5 'robert':1 'vs':4 'whittak':2 'yes':3", "contractId": "4mghpedfon", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "wDSneO1pBGOVpAgHXs4sWK7xkf12", "createdTime": 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0.5000000000000001 | 1lpjdga097 | {"NO": 506.128977511226, "YES": 1975.7809657871649} | 0.20392721294254315 | initiative-2117-will-washington-rep | 1428.7276404015192 | Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program? | 1731733140000 | A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.643789123830707 | False | basic | public | 1718574029852 | TraderBoyTraderBoy1 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On November 5th, 2024, a vote is slated to occur in the US state of Washington on Initiative 2117: Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://src.wastateleg.org/initiative-2117-stop-hidden-gas-tax/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://src.wastateleg.org/initiative-2117-stop-hidden-gas-tax/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), which if passed would ban the state's “cap and trade” program and repeal the Climate Commitment Act (2021). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Initiative 2117 on the November 5, 2024 Washington ballot passes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If for any reason a vote on Initiative 2117 does not occur by November 15, 2024, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of Washington, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.011947037301119595, "month": -0.2960727870574569} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.738309701882258, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TraderBoyTraderBoy1 | 1720060419919 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTraderBoyTraderBoy1%2Fh9bqg1UCY7.41?alt=media&token=41233d1a-603a-46e7-8b15-600c164bfbd7 | 31 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647751037805 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720060416020 | 1719239658286 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | 4iyi0e48uv | {"NO": 8268.492055144286, "YES": 120.94103656758679} | 1 | will-mr-beasts-givedirectly-fundrai | 19293.91803061442 | Will Mr. Beast's GiveDirectly fundraiser video reach >10 million views within 20 days of release? (July 6th) | 1719511858125 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.86025795185201 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718577484550 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the embedded YouTube video display >10,000,000 views when I check on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July 6th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", 20 days after release? This market will close for trading on June 30th (one week prior).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mr. Beast just released a video promoting a fundraiser for GiveDirectly (a popularity charity supported by GiveWell).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The video (\"We Gave Every Family in a Village a Full Year's Salary. Wait Until You See What Happened!\") was posted to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@BeastPhilanthropy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@BeastPhilanthropy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " side channel (not his main one).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mr. Beast & GiveDirectly are running a fundraiser with a $150,000 goal: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.givedirectly.org/beast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givedirectly.org/beast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/pZ-MpxDZr9I", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 220.1545621945208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719511858125 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719512014277 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719510868358 | 1719512012717 | 0.99 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | vdd9zowqid | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066192} | 0 | will-mr-beasts-givedirectly-fundrai-kpr0pm7v1k | 1210.2214667174205 | Will Mr. Beast's GiveDirectly fundraiser reach its $150,000 target within a week? | 1719212340000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718578572015 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fundraiser link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.givedirectly.org/beast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givedirectly.org/beast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if it reaches its $150,000 target by the end of June 23rd (one week after it started). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Mr. Beast just released a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "video", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STiUV6XXG4E", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " promoting a fundraiser for GiveDirectly.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.5236773386051, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719239560498 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1719212340000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719202188994 | 1719167249534 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0818rxt7zf | will-a-quiet-place-day-one-2024-hav | 7021.351902564808 | Will "A Quiet Place: Day One" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | 1720853940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718579998239 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"A Quiet Place: Day One\" Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/a_quiet_place_day_one", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve these markets based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics not audiences) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two weeks after release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (i.e. July 12th).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal—note that these are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "strict", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " inequalities).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, \"A Quiet Place Part II\" (2021) currently has a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomatometer of 91%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/a_quiet_place_part_ii", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". 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5nlpztlt6o | will-horizon-an-american-saga-chapt | 9310.146532412018 | Will "Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | 1720853940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718580584642 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/horizon_an_american_saga_chapter_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve these markets based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics not audiences) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two weeks after release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (i.e. July 12th).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal—note that these are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "strict", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " inequalities).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the Kevin Costner directed \"Dances with Wolves\" (1990) currently has a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomatometer of 87%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dances_with_wolves", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". 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0.5 | u6jvbnqcba | {"NO": 56.08545131790659, "YES": 178.2993586575145} | 0.23928791001340072 | will-openai-make-a-profit-in-2025 | 90 | Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025? | 1798779540000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718586283026 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We wait until their finances for 2025 are officially published (presumably in 2026). This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if legally-required filings show net income was positive for OpenAI during 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.13487684514205134, "week": -0.13487684514205134, "month": -0.2607120899865993} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.254058103945252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 100 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1720199302872 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642459391118 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720199299742 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000006 | udddnt09gc | {"NO": 1044.9024987908801, "YES": 957.0270921518163} | 0.5219476766407369 | will-any-western-countries-go-to-wa | 2247.571743 | Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070? | 3155846340000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.425862770571019 | False | basic | public | 1718614888101 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original question on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20588/western-war-by-2070/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, \"Western\" countries ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "will be defined as the following:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purpose of this question, \"engage in a war\" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A clear consensus of international authorities indicates that a state of active warfare exists between those two countries.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An armed conflict occurs between two or more Western countries in which at least 1,000 nationals of all Western belligerents, or 0.005% (1 out of 20,000) of the de facto pre-war population of any one Western belligerent, are confirmed to have been killed directly by armed combat within a 1 year (365 day) period. In the event that such a conflict begins less than 1 year prior to this question's resolution date, deaths occurring after the specified resolution date will not be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Fine Print", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event that one Western nation states that it is at war with another as a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "joke", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stunt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", Metaculus will use their discretion to determine whether that statement describes a de facto declaration of war by one country on another.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accidental or unauthorized use of weapons or military force during peacetime will not count towards the resolution of this question. Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if this applies.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021947676640736935} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 74.00806442528173, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1719811736129 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719080821868 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qi9bcqyjft | {"NO": 412.63359686257064, "YES": 2423.4575361856755} | 0.14549377206333633 | will-israel-hold-elections-before-7 | 2914.004063859538 | Will Israel hold elections before 7th October 2024? | 1728255540000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.696117042691096 | False | basic | public | 1718616713077 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-government protesters are demanding that Benjamin Netanyahu calls an election before 7th October - the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet following the resignation of Benny Gantz:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/17/middle-east-crisis-live-biden-adviser-israel-hezbollah-clashes-gaza-netanyahu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/17/middle-east-crisis-live-biden-adviser-israel-hezbollah-clashes-gaza-netanyahu", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the protesters get what they are asking for?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the next general election to elect members to the Knesset is called for any date up to 6th October, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "iAhNjeA6TBzQRx7pkCZm", "label": "/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02247752168927164, "month": -0.35450622793666364} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.29647676915333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720003488233 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720003485087 | 1718633052717 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | dreduy5725 | {"NO": 985.7108582335328, "YES": 1014.4962811833831} | 0.4928043895098181 | will-dominion-energy-d-announce-int | 15 | Will Dominion Energy ($D) announce intent to build an ESBWR at North Anna Nuclear Generating Station in 2024? | 1735707540000 | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570365495960353 | False | basic | public | 1718617479327 | Bernie B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "North Anna Nuclear Generating Station has an approved combined construction and operating permit to build an ESBWR at North Anna Nuclear Generating Station ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Combined License Holders For New Reactors | ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col-holder.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "NRC.gov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://NRC.gov", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Vogtle units 3 and 4 online there has been renewed interest in building more new nuclear power plants. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Remarks as Delivered by Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm on Startup of Vogtle Unit 4 and Growth of U.S. Nuclear Industry | Department of Energy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.energy.gov/articles/remarks-delivered-secretary-jennifer-m-granholm-startup-vogtle-unit-4-and-growth-us", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "North Anna Power Station | Dominion Energy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dominionenergy.com/projects-and-facilities/nuclear-facilities/north-anna-power-station", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Virginia is planning on a large increase in electricity consumption from data centers:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Centers Now Need a Reactor’s Worth of Power, Dominion Says (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/data-centers-now-need-a-reactors-worth-of-power-dominion-says", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "bloomberglaw.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://bloomberglaw.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/data-centers-now-need-a-reactors-worth-of-power-dominion-says", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is asking if Virginia Electric & Power Co. or Dominion Energy ($D) will officially announce its intention to begin construction of an ESBWR at North Anna Nuclear Generating Station in 2024. I will resolve this based on official company or government announcements.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007195610490181914} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5037188166168889, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BernieB | 1718624799083 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704591987823 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718624795779 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | z8rflcf89i | {"NO": 1091.9498122706896, "YES": 915.7930051020554} | 0.5438693655493055 | will-i-adopt-a-suggestion-from-this | 117 | Will I adopt a suggestion from this market's thread for a personal goals market on the topic of self care? | 1735685940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571534982727483 | False | basic | public | 1718617515606 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's talk about how you could use Manifold Markets to practice self-care, self-love, self-acceptance. Discipline is good and important and personal goals markets are a good tool to discipline yourself, but can you also use such a tool to support you in taking good care of yourself? I have suffered from depression for years and have found that this website helps me a lot in dealing with it. I am always looking for new ways to improve my life.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I adopt a suggestion from this thread this year, I'm going to resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04386936554930554} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.812349097333087, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | redcat | 1719082399367 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719082396210 | 1718998169025 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | sjg7yp7kkf | {"NO": 910.7060815070574, "YES": 1098.0491075069767} | 0.453368377833072 | will-donald-trump-be-the-president-pah3knwdu7 | 4538.355852617329 | Will Donald Trump be the President of the USA on December 31, 2025? | 1767221940000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.41573805044259 | False | basic | public | 1718621124787 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04663162216692801} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.85330368062031, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | itsTomekK | 1718870600512 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 39 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1658666303973 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718870597439 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | uquz7kzziy | {"NO": 515.6383125812279, "YES": 1939.3438687558178} | 0.21003749701368438 | will-a-fully-adult-only-airline-exi | 1708.3098216179885 | Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030? | 1924988340000 | gGDWCSpUoZQuU4G2cyZmCgOUmNS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.639754546587742 | False | basic | public | 1718621541583 | kian_spire | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Beginning in November 2023, Corendon Airlines has set aside 93 regular seats and nine extra legroom seats in an adults-only section of the aircraft of the company’s Airbus A350 jets, which has a total of 432 seats. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The section was located at the front of the plane and was blocked off from the rest of the aircraft with a wall and a curtain to eliminate the noise of any children on board. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is only a section of the airplane. This question will resolve YES if a whole plane is adult only, which will be seats reserved for people 18 years or older. If this doesn't happen by the end of 2030 the question will resolve NO. Only commercial airlines count. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.008163154063044548, "month": -0.28996250298631565} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.28369143067976, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | kian_spire | 1719699935638 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673711311777 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699932429 | 1718643107995 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45647468385669493 | 8n8prosolx | {"NO": 7787.607842338561, "YES": 13342.97500967933} | 0.32893643439429326 | will-apple-release-a-homepod-powere | 11332.698686758838 | Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | 1735649940000 | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7873673200915663 | False | plus | public | 1718622384432 | Enrico Susatyo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current HomePod does not have Apple intelligence. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.001491974290298348, "week": 0.056570615370885036, "month": -0.17106356560570674} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 278.08734836245856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 10000 | esusatyo | 1720211244357 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680581898997 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720211240692 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | azgvpmqfia | {"NO": 21.238250235250064, "YES": 470.8485816502225} | 0.04315955814926788 | will-ammunition-explosion-in-libava | 375 | Will ammunition explosion in Libavá be attributed to Russia? | 1767308340000 | b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718623692081 | Irigi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, there is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "news", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-vybuch-v-libave-40476670", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that there was explosion in the military space ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Libavá", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vojensk%C3%BD_%C3%BAjezd_Libav%C3%A1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in Czech Republic. Will it be reliably attributed to Russia before 1.1.2026?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use my best judgement in resolving the question, based on the information from media. I will not bet.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.45684044185073214} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.151418349777486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Irigi | 1718631730624 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678092865133 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718631727534 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | mb41t0hthx | {"NO": 124.24522106477698, "YES": 80.48599305712021} | 0.6068699470067189 | will-prisaha-or-motoriste-sobe-gain | 25 | Will Přísaha or Motoristé sobě gain seats in the next Czech parliament? | 1761951540000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718625395883 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the european parliament elections, the right-wing populist coalition of Přísaha (Pledge) and Motoristé sobě (Motorists for Themselves) surprisingly gained over 10% of the vote. Will this be enough to gain seats in the next parliamentary elections in Czechia? A limit for a single party to enter the parliament is 5%, a two-party colation must gain 7%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Regular elections are scheduled for October 2025 at the latest. Any snap elections that happen earlier will resolve this question. The close date will be updated once the exact election date is announced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at least one seat in the new parliament is assigned to a member of either party, regardless of the precise coalition and candidate list setup for the elections. Membership is evaluated on the last day of elections. Former members (or entering the party after the elections) does not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10686994700671892} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7547789352230186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartinModrak | 1719322070094 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719322066961 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6v2lleks2c | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-h806evlkgv | 2286.5109363046 | What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, June 19th, 2024? | 1718769540000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718629230146 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. If the answer is ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A by the next regular post day based on the possible consensus there.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.24613579421, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718838501780 | 1000 | EBurk | 1718769540000 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bufyyvd8xi", "prob": 0.76, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 256.9584976205924, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.4220212769123, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "6v2lleks2c", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1718629230146, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2638923278398526, "month": 0.2638923278398526}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 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