p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000001 | asr300wjka | {"NO": 646.4446205109556, "YES": 1546.9229200323339} | 0.2947269933386694 | will-apple-release-an-apple-watch-p | 1515.5062544895181 | Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | 1735649940000 | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.600130308343893 | False | basic | public | 1718630348261 | Enrico Susatyo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Apple Watch does not have Apple intelligence. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20527300666133058} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.06166864543179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | esusatyo | 1719068397865 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680581898997 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719068394741 | 1718660472016 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hi8c2i5tcz | at-which-ages-do-people-enjoy-their | 0 | At which ages do people enjoy their birthdays the most? | 1719287940000 | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718634061789 | For Truth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rephrased: on average, which birthday celebrations are the most enjoyed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, \"1 - 3\" means you should average (using the mean, not the median) the enjoyment of the 1st, 2nd... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719287940717 | ForTruth | 1718634061885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714184615024 | 0 | 0.25 | ["z61gw7q29w"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 145ms1mvtk | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-the-leopold-model-analysis-and | 50 | Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718635523953 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869138438 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869135388 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | m72f3fjsg5 | {"NO": 121.52985966740142, "YES": 82.28430467514445} | 0 | will-i-gainlose-fide-rating-at-my-n | 81.40150605133148 | Will I gain/lose FIDE rating at my next chess tournament? | 1719268945184 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718636397583 | Erick Zhao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Next tournament is the 2024 US Cadet: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2024 US Cadet Championship (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kingregistration.com/event/uscadet2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:und... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6248665121723818, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719268945184 | 100 | ErickZhao | 1719268965138 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714481298497 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719221085198 | 0.6 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
glb1iktmxs | from-the-previous-poll-the-three-wi | 0 | From the previous Poll. The three winners were for the “What will manifold think the best bedtime” | 1719295140000 | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718638611415 | Casey The Grip Lord | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From the previous question narrowing down. What do you think is the most popular bedtime?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719295141218 | CaseyTheGripLord | 1718638611445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715975256334 | 0 | 0.25 | ["m5j2ar2d98"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | r39evrmajn | {"NO": 127.11806121333866, "YES": 78.66702736456374} | 0.6177224117247766 | will-i-write-a-poem-in-2024 | 41.401506051331474 | Will I write a poem in 2024? | 1735685940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718638751746 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I write a poem in 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time I wrote and finished a poem was at least 10 years ago. I won't use LLMs, obviously", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1177224117247766} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2570074188805003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719082413489 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719082410424 | 1718729738871 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vqoz7sc4ak | when-will-ai-be-able-to-dox-anyone | 137.71715461740573 | When will AI be able to dox anyone based on publicly-available writing samples? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718639091292 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sample word count undefined, but assume 3 to 10 average length social media posts, comments, education-related paperwork, survey responses, employment website data, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2572536065414384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Slackhammer | 1718735205284 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7rdnoo2mcn", "prob": 0.36633446533743635, "text": "2025 (or earlier)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.67236275269638, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.919967349314827, "textFts": "'2025':1 'earlier':3", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718735202200 | 1718709356191 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | o3okhlw9yi | {"NO": 10.897487354756379, "YES": 917.6427257458905} | 0 | will-there-be-silksong-news-in-the | 957.2525496005289 | Will there be Silksong news in the June 18th Nintendo Direct? | 1718726235303 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718639662770 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.202949975441491, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718726235303 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1718726457449 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718721658290 | 1718726456176 | 0.01 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2g286wurba | if-biden-beats-trump-a-2nd-time-wil | 0 | If Biden beats Trump a 2nd time, will he be a greater Democrat president than Obama? | 1735678740000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718640388944 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A lot of shy Biden fanboi Dems in my circle think he's the better president on policy/outcomes but are scared losing to Trump will negate any accomplishments he might have had. If he somehow beats Trump, will that accomplishment and the consolidati... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | dlin007 | 1718640428763 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1blp9kbwr8 | lets-all-bet-on-what-slay-the-spire | 9075 | Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town | 1782889140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.040120258613312 | False | plus | public | 1718641004730 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All claims about sts1 are referring to the main base game without mods, latest version produced by the original devs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claims will be resolved by the game at rel... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 136.09728346012463, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 12000 | Ernie | 1719921864568 | 0 | 7 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "kqc4gwwbca", "prob": 0.6508315482169734, "text": "It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2438.7308117214616, "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1308.369061360352, "textFts": "'charact':6 'morph':12 'new':5 'revis':10", "contractId... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719921861434 | 1718923469050 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | cidasx8uui | {"NO": 780.9385899680547, "YES": 1280.5104176512853} | 1 | will-i-do-4h-or-less-of-work-on-gra-mpz3dna7nn | 770.015896530792 | Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | 1719176340000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579850209288766 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718641211339 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan for only 4 hours this week because of my full time summe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.072597395155125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719194706124 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1719176340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719166681206 | 1719194697141 | 0.38 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ci02v6tf2j | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-k9d8pwqhfd | 0 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Wed. Jun. 19th Compared To Its Close On Tue. Jun. 18th? | 1718654006946 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718642379807 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Wed. Jun. 19th Compared To Its Close On Tue. Jun. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inf... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718654006946 | 160 | SirCryptomind | 1718654006946 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "55qwwao92e", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Asia (Tokyo) | Nikkei 225 : Yes⬆️/No⬇️", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'/no':6 '225':4 'asia':1 'nikkei':3 'tokyo':2 'yes':5", "contractId": "ci02v6tf2j", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
z86es1pljq | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-5kf3partk0 | 0 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Thu. Jun. 20th Compared To Its Close On Wed. Jun. 19th? | 1718653964905 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718642418195 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Thu. Jun. 20th Compared To Its Close On Wed. Jun. 19th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inf... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718653964905 | 160 | SirCryptomind | 1718653964905 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "p9gsh99jza", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Asia (Tokyo) | Nikkei 225 : Yes⬆️/No⬇️", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'/no':6 '225':4 'asia':1 'nikkei':3 'tokyo':2 'yes':5", "contractId": "z86es1pljq", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ur8j3t4kiq | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-04d3m7b11s | 0 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Fri. Jun. 21st Compared To Its Close On Thu. Jun. 20th? | 1718653912960 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718642517653 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Fri. Jun. 21st Compared To Its Close On Thu. Jun. 20th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inf... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718653912960 | 160 | SirCryptomind | 1718653912960 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "j2hdivvfgx", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Asia (Tokyo) | Nikkei 225 : Yes⬆️/No⬇️", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'/no':6 '225':4 'asia':1 'nikkei':3 'tokyo':2 'yes':5", "contractId": "ur8j3t4kiq", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | x237vaxcb6 | {"NO": 5660.278602150953, "YES": 176.66974901553286} | 0.9697325145972507 | will-the-kouprey-bos-sauveli-become | 6692.994374066287 | Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8841850575031 | False | basic | public | 1718642663369 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Kouprey, aka forest ox and grey ox, is a species of forest-dwelling wild bovine native to Southeast Asia. With the last confirmed sighting of a wild animal in 1969 the species is listed as critically endangered (possibly extinct) by the IUCN. T... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.46973251459725074} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.72702378275949, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ExtinctionRisk | 1719514675406 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719514672137 | 1719306680334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kjjkolx3od | which-2024-us-presidential-election | 1076.0264464623065 | Which 2024 US presidential election forecasting product will be the most accurate? | 1731139140000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718643606217 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Process", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": On the first day of the three months prior to the US presidential election (i.e. 1 Sep, 1 Oct, 1 Nov) I will record in a spreadsheet the probabilities (rounded to neares... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.250458543983605, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1718732489055 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "s5oepbkfa7", "prob": 0.1641434771555764, "text": "FiveThirtyEight", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.0902556211253, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.5904835605287, "textFts": "'fivethirtyeight':1", "contractId": "kjjkolx3od", "createdTime": 1718643606217, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718694716969 | 1718732487253 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hzv1bi1vin | what-will-the-nvidia-stock-price-be-kknafe7yo5 | 1660.000000000009 | What will the Nvidia stock price be at the end of 2025? | 1767304740000 | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.263704621202653 | False | plus | public | 1718643634730 | Iason Koukas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prices are post June 2024, 10-1 stock-split. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 105.99706044375277, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | IasonKoukas | 1719271383998 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | 10 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1chfukqvkt", "prob": 0.04487019343296918, "text": "30-45", "index": 0, "poolNo": 255.43565815914124, "userId": "WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5437.333608385971, "textFts": "'-45':2 '30':1", "contractId": "hzv1bi1vin", "createdTime": 1718643634730, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0053973... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702729254788 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719271380190 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
telio49ug6 | which-organisation-is-junechatbot-c | 14729.655333160124 | Which organisation is june-chatbot created by? | 1718736699843 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | v4ryq2a9oo | public | 1718643660856 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 113.56545945070108, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718736699843 | 1100 | Tetraspace | 1718736726344 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "jv561val32", "prob": 0.0016502312295680116, "text": "Microsoft", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.14242995790346, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5530.947827755081, "textFts": "'microsoft':1", "contractId": "telio49ug6", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718708181961 | 1718736725314 | {"v4ryq2a9oo": 100} | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
am8jfkzrz1 | will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-qbcfvz1byc | 16773.916820084145 | Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST | 1767247140000 | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718644537626 | Supreme Carrot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts during the day between 9am to 9pm CST!!!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! ", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 161.43371966895654, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 715 | 2500 | Carrotcake | 1720227088961 | 0 | 9 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "otjjrmg50l", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Tuesday, June 18th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 913.0742542624528, "userId": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.952011792378926, "textFts": "'18th':3 '2024':4 'june':2 'tuesday':1", "contractId": "am8jfkzrz1", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651872970177 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720227085875 | 1719760895182 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d3t13f6010 | which-session-at-manifest-2024-was | 0 | Which session at Manifest 2024 was your favorite? | 1719273540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718644967114 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The winner of this poll will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/which-session-at-manifest-2024-will", "class": "break-anywhere hover:... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719273541153 | Ziddletwix | 1719253072222 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718802468601 | ["38xcwwqhsk"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42533539829017275 | exxz391dr2 | {"NO": 1070.1960869951902, "YES": 909.7390130528609} | 0.4654379236607773 | will-the-usa-vs-adobe-trial-be-drop | 220 | Will the USA vs Adobe trial be dropped / dismissed / thrown out before it goes to trial? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.745503358203997 | False | basic | public | 1718645353235 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "class":... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0345620763392227} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.686358718461442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719145904863 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719145901803 | 1718685888084 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k5c0flw238 | are-present-levels-of-fluoridation | 0 | Are present levels of fluoridation in US public water supply generally too high, too low, etc.? | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718645405990 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Arcmage7000 | 1718645406034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mwwhycl5ya | will-the-usa-vs-adobe-trial-be-drop-2s75ztzqdy | 76 | What will be the outcome of the USA vs Adobe trial? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718645524719 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3175533798701264, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718787338353 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d9a68t11io", "prob": 0.05143621562827588, "text": "Verdict in favor of Adobe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.821585002012856, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 107.35907828948663, "textFts": "'adob':5 'favor':3 'verdict':1", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 171864552471... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718787335165 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hqkvdxrsky | {"NO": 44.96025913184373, "YES": 222.4186468915916} | 0.16815185535953625 | will-adobe-acquire-figma-by-the-end-h3cmyjaikt | 125 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718645652576 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Adobe attempted to acquire", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/15/23354532/adobe-figma-acquisition-20-billion-official", "class": "break-anywhere hov... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.33184814464046375} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5813531084084085, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719874065985 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718650410441 | 1719874060220 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | xe9yhfdr6v | {"NO": 543.2025432199916, "YES": 1840.9339434830479} | 0 | will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e2-title | 3107.1939133455826 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E2 ("Rhaenyra the Cruel") be rated >8.6 on IMDB, 2 days after release? | 1719190740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629100987937157 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718645824004 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E2 (\"Rhaenyra the Cruel\"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 86.88030612791631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719341365208 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719345667697 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719188483438 | 1719345665623 | 0.23 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nxf4rczq3m | {"NO": 43.9817270164919, "YES": 227.36715173213366} | 0.16208553069878745 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in | 130 | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718646680384 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if dismissed, dropped, or still in process.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a settlement or judgement for either side.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.33791446930121255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6328482678663225, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719145788479 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719145785308 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | ico5q2ix7x | {"NO": 124.2432210587677, "YES": 80.48728868088463} | 0.6068622659942715 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-trjek9s81y | 25 | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of May 2025? | 1748750340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718646713980 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if dismissed, dropped, or still in process.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a settlement or judgement for either side.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10686226599427151} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718687952036 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718654526838 | 1718687950982 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tdnvmmn3v2 | {"NO": 1360.4923862031287, "YES": 735.0280017301727} | 0.6492384393095355 | will-charlie-get-to-bed-by-1230am-a | 378 | Will @Charlie get to bed by 12:30am at least 2 times this week? | 1719237720000 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585107667677601 | False | public | 1718647352411 | emile.chat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.1492384393095355} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.84974286560999, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | emile | 1719235424741 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691876598453 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719235421613 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | ctz6todnzb | {"NO": 314.63386623237164, "YES": 3178.2974031837184} | 0 | when-all-the-votes-are-counted-in-t | 6970.174148800191 | When all the votes are counted in the UK's general election, will Reform UK poll more votes than the Conservative Party? | 1720047540000 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.789702283288065 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718647434316 | Harry Hayfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of the election, when the 650th constituency has declared will Reform UK have more votes than the Conservative Party? This question will resolve as YES, if Reform UK have a higher vote tally than the Conservatives and NO, if the reverse ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.09007731385592625, "week": -0.17465323427025778, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 128.9442766082906, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720164623708 | 1000 | HarryHayfield | 1720047540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | 45 | 12 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708098506766 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720046149979 | 1718863147682 | 0.09 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
at50v2pqeo | are-you-hoarding-prize-points-until | 0 | Are you hoarding prize points until cash payouts are available? | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718649575473 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | redcat | 1718692416882 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718692416103 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | r0hd6k9cdb | {"NO": 977.5555768176505, "YES": 1149.6340473659554} | 0.12159266529829271 | will-lightcone-infrastructurelesswr | 151 | Will "Lightcone Infrastructure/LessWrong is looking..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.91041398620817 | False | public | 1718649694476 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.0184073347017073} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3659526340447548, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718731262506 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718731259458 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | upkkj2oia8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | f1crl-2024-summer-prompts-megathrea | 0 | F1CRL 2024 (Summer) Prompts Megathread | 1718651136314 | gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718651098619 | Jeff | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve based on results posted to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "f1crl.net", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://f1crl.net", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoratio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718651136314 | 100 | legotechnicw15 | 1718651136314 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709439725812 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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l1k6b0m80r | is-the-probability-of-observing-you | 0 | Is the probability of observing yourself to be a human closer to 1 or closer to 0? | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718660826688 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718661926628 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718661925498 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
euyw53386w | which-crew-vehicle-will-launch-isro | 2054.4279898270966 | Which crew vehicle will launch ISRO astronauts to the ISS under the new collaboration with NASA? | 1830293940000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718662103949 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is about the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announcement today", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/17/joint-fact-sheet-the-united-states-and-india-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.93617390494872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mqrius | 1718732221063 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ofjfoegdh3", "prob": 0.8262734108611588, "text": "SpaceX Dragon", "index": 0, "poolNo": 545.2161992552158, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 114.6334244752398, "textFts": "'dragon':2 'spacex':1", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718732217980 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 72hptqnmr8 | {"NO": 73.61186269998372, "YES": 135.84766956321306} | 0.3514371578347965 | will-central-park-record-a-100degre | 260.02137472812547 | Will Central Park record a 100-degree day this summer? | 1725249540000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718663781282 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100Degree... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.020325295233232676, "month": -0.1485628421652035} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.384517944911348, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | burkh4rt | 1719924457970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719924454848 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fegky8gu94 | {"NO": 95.38819365450189, "YES": 104.83477689304215} | 0.47640984145648485 | will-michael-vassar-be-at-manifest | 53.557078435038804 | Will Michael vassar be at manifest 2025 | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718664098600 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02359015854351515} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6081446719190606, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719621698447 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719621695241 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fuv9cu6vck | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-augur-in-2030-be-less-than-hal | 0 | Will Augur (in 2030) be less than half the size it was in 2020? | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718665935738 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718665935738 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 4pogvutjl3 | {"NO": 1223.0389307421706, "YES": 290.3132402993845} | 0.40681290257693803 | will-ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-depl | 326.51896419464765 | Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.815248200101063 | False | public | 1718666185562 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.27344441663581476, "month": 0.266812902576938} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.077566463511811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719890961796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719890957494 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 3qjbyk0got | {"NO": 200.00000000000003, "YES": 49.999999999999986} | 0.8000000000000002 | will-silent-hill-2-have-a-metacriti | 102.2941927288735 | Will Silent Hill 2 have a Metacritic score of 80 or higher as of October 10th? | 1728619140000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668540878 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.30000000000000016} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2941927288734663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718731360357 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718731357306 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cagkc74pqp | {"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133} | 0.5632213064865212 | will-sonic-x-shadow-generations-hav | 14 | Will Sonic x Shadow Generations have a Metacritic score of 75 or higher as of October 27th? | 1730087940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668653809 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06322130648652124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4443322677109916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718668665366 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668662329 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kfgb7ekvyf | {"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133} | 0.5632213064865212 | will-assassins-creed-shadows-have-a | 14 | Will Assassin's Creed Shadows have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of November 17th? | 1731905940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668928724 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06322130648652124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4443322677109916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718668942166 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668939124 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | sio5b4gfoe | {"NO": 213.55464634895702, "YES": 46.82642204684038} | 0.8201619559542596 | will-microsoft-flight-simulator-202 | 236.65870782994742 | Will Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of November 21st? | 1732251540000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669096436 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0571918668676662, "month": 0.32016195595425956} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.923394784217876, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1720063100895 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720063097831 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | aqruvjb425 | {"NO": 142.7753743164625, "YES": 70.04008953137075} | 0.6708881569741068 | will-the-85th-anniversary-of-dday-h | 82.91491349037008 | Will the 85th anniversary of D-Day have any living D-Day WW2 veterans show up? | 1874375940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669155965 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be D-Day alone, not just general WW2", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17088815697410675} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3097121931674294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719478744950 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718670205420 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6xp3iv9v77 | {"NO": 58.57102301356097, "YES": 170.732889498698} | 0.2554296713556061 | will-world-of-warcraft-the-war-with-uxd6joisc6 | 164.0700491188812 | Will World of Warcraft: The War Within have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of September 4th? | 1725508740000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669288218 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09100074012224721, "month": -0.24457032864439388} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.294268217520344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1719702301104 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719702297612 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8mooe5e6yb | {"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133} | 0.5632213064865212 | will-madden-nfl-25-have-a-metacriti | 14 | Will Madden NFL 25 have a Metacritic score of 80 or higher as of August 18th? | 1724039940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669480830 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06322130648652124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4443322677109916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718669490173 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718669487126 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.46617151214335356 | entdprj7xl | {"NO": 84276.4363835523, "YES": 743.3869836297363} | 1 | will-the-manifold-twitter-community | 93241.47002555415 | Will the Manifold Twitter Community reach 100 members within 2 weeks? | 1718750295871 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.138465677675938 | True | plus | YES | public | 1718671340240 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Come join! It's like a big group chat where we can hangout on twitter - I even use my real face/name on my personal twitter acc, so if you didn't see me at Manifest, you can see who I am!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 749.0881345395541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718750295871 | 10000 | Gen | 1718750295871 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668776584415 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718746927098 | 1718748080402 | 0.99 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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clcrrucncv | how-many-of-the-50-celebrities-on-t | 927.277320970563 | How many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2024 will pass away? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718692797366 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deathlist.net/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deathlist.net/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.027909019462282, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | strutheo | 1719938998458 | 0 | 13 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "o8vn5daseq", "prob": 0.006107666588749284, "text": "03", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.824098354320775, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 296.83306110505146, "textFts": "'03':1", "contractId": "clcrrucncv", "createdTime": 1718692797367, "probChanges": {"day": 8.779733384618998e-0... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719938995158 | 1718943691482 | True | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9n8ehxoxzr | {"NO": 54.649482035042055, "YES": 182.98435095117367} | 0.22997349050971236 | will-alan-greenspan-pass-away-befor | 85 | Will Alan Greenspan pass away before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718693027419 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2700265094902876} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0156490488263312, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718807331790 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718807328740 | 1718775797710 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2sdc55tlib | {"NO": 72.01092159232209, "YES": 138.8678241977424} | 0.34148022515275633 | will-alan-greenspan-become-a-centen | 40 | Will Alan Greenspan become a centenarian? | 1772859540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718693067965 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Born March 6, 1926", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15851977484724367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1321758022575794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719009329593 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719009326530 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | iaqvuzq68p | {"NO": 71.8995324072737, "YES": 139.08296292325193} | 0.34078434940602886 | will-keanu-reeves-be-reported-as-ha | 50 | Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog | 2035349940000 | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718694499544 | Jessica Evans | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For purposes of resolution, reporting must take place in a media outlet, psychological breakdown just means unable to work for at least one day (not institutionalization or outpatient treatment), and the timeline is capped at 10 years since Shadow ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15921565059397114} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4704538382078465, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JessicaEvans | 1718748566960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695341020374 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718705121703 | 1718748565898 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | igq2bo6gl9 | {"NO": 1244.1623347754755, "YES": 803.7536357186563} | 0.6075260668411501 | purchased-kindle-ebooks-censored-or | 1264.5209215849177 | Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030. | 1893513540000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577758149309531 | False | basic | public | 1718697135329 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if, before 2030, Amazon prevents people from reading or downloading eBooks that they previously purchased from Amazon because the content violates Amazon's content policies. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10752606684115007} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.88114207518824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarrisonLucas | 1718875908198 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664585067255 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718875905067 | 1718799218711 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | du2tane7kn | {"NO": 546.8354608592665, "YES": 1828.7036441065031} | 0.23019425768078308 | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | 9854.807506758392 | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | 1735689540000 | h1QI1xNtPFgLiHMP3HXXaGsHgix2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.157486781656303 | False | basic | public | 1718698170962 | Jamie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI is hyped, and AI has intrinsic value.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If three companies from:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nvidia... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.26980574231921695} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 204.13075842306773, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AgenticLondoner | 1719276042067 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691157916057 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719276038978 | 1718769962008 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
t4z5gfuvz8 | jet-lag-the-game-season-eleven-trut | 291.9475625581533 | Jet Lag: The Game Season Eleven Truth Statements | 1725033540000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718699897194 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to all that are true. I will add more as the season progresses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet unless something appears or becomes subjective, in which case I will not bet.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.909750428885143, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 210 | JoshuaWilkes | 1719821212830 | 0 | 8 | 4 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "pmym6kukre", "prob": 0.6299999999999999, "text": "Ben gets drunk (canonically)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.0487650860252, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.6635604473481385, "textFts": "'ben':1 'canon':4 'drunk':3 'get':2", "contractId": "t4z5gfuvz8", "createdTime": 171869... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719821209763 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999845 | 94r0v4azuu | {"NO": 4194.858734247958, "YES": 238.3870502803187} | 1 | euro-2024-will-kylian-mbappe-score | 7427.701171961432 | Euro 2024 - will Kylian Mbappe score a goal? | 1719338111423 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905706180143039 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718701087246 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kylian Mbappe was the top goalscorer at the most recent World Cup. He may well become the top World Cup goalscorer of all time - he's currently in equal 6th place with Pele on 12 goals and at 25 he's got a lot of years left in him.", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 126.62829934063292, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719338111423 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1719338111423 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719335814635 | 0.95 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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