p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000001 | asr300wjka | {"NO": 646.4446205109556, "YES": 1546.9229200323339} | 0.2947269933386694 | will-apple-release-an-apple-watch-p | 1515.5062544895181 | Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | 1735649940000 | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.600130308343893 | False | basic | public | 1718630348261 | Enrico Susatyo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Apple Watch does not have Apple intelligence. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20527300666133058} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.06166864543179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | esusatyo | 1719068397865 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680581898997 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719068394741 | 1718660472016 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hi8c2i5tcz | at-which-ages-do-people-enjoy-their | 0 | At which ages do people enjoy their birthdays the most? | 1719287940000 | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718634061789 | For Truth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rephrased: on average, which birthday celebrations are the most enjoyed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, \"1 - 3\" means you should average (using the mean, not the median) the enjoyment of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd birthdays. If you think one year is significantly more enjoyed than all others (21, for example), then keep in mind that it's still only one contributor to the average of three years.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also keep in mind that this is exclusively about the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "birthdays", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", not the rest of the corresponding years. The birthdays count towards (or against) the average enjoyment even if there is no celebration.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a followup further narrowing the results from:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "K5SKs19todVEQunjC3aS", "label": "/ForTruth/at-what-ages-do-people-enjoy-their"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719287940717 | ForTruth | 1718634061885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714184615024 | 0 | 0.25 | ["z61gw7q29w"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 145ms1mvtk | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-the-leopold-model-analysis-and | 50 | Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718635523953 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869138438 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869135388 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | m72f3fjsg5 | {"NO": 121.52985966740142, "YES": 82.28430467514445} | 0 | will-i-gainlose-fide-rating-at-my-n | 81.40150605133148 | Will I gain/lose FIDE rating at my next chess tournament? | 1719268945184 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718636397583 | Erick Zhao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Next tournament is the 2024 US Cadet: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2024 US Cadet Championship (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kingregistration.com/event/uscadet2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "kingregistration.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://kingregistration.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kingregistration.com/event/uscadet2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Currently at my FIDE/USCF rating peak, won last year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I gain FIDE rating (NOT USCF), resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I lose FIDE rating (NOT USCF), resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes when tournament ends", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Round robin tournament, currently seeded 4th FIDE, 1st USCF.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVED: NO (-13 FIDE, im bad at chess :( )", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6248665121723818, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719268945184 | 100 | ErickZhao | 1719268965138 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714481298497 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719221085198 | 0.6 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
glb1iktmxs | from-the-previous-poll-the-three-wi | 0 | From the previous Poll. The three winners were for the “What will manifold think the best bedtime” | 1719295140000 | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718638611415 | Casey The Grip Lord | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From the previous question narrowing down. What do you think is the most popular bedtime?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719295141218 | CaseyTheGripLord | 1718638611445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715975256334 | 0 | 0.25 | ["m5j2ar2d98"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | r39evrmajn | {"NO": 127.11806121333866, "YES": 78.66702736456374} | 0.6177224117247766 | will-i-write-a-poem-in-2024 | 41.401506051331474 | Will I write a poem in 2024? | 1735685940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718638751746 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I write a poem in 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time I wrote and finished a poem was at least 10 years ago. I won't use LLMs, obviously", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1177224117247766} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2570074188805003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719082413489 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719082410424 | 1718729738871 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vqoz7sc4ak | when-will-ai-be-able-to-dox-anyone | 137.71715461740573 | When will AI be able to dox anyone based on publicly-available writing samples? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718639091292 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sample word count undefined, but assume 3 to 10 average length social media posts, comments, education-related paperwork, survey responses, employment website data, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this survey, let the definition of \"dox\" be expanded to include the ability to assign writing styles to unique source identities with a reasonable degree of precision.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2572536065414384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Slackhammer | 1718735205284 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7rdnoo2mcn", "prob": 0.36633446533743635, "text": "2025 (or earlier)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.67236275269638, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.919967349314827, "textFts": "'2025':1 'earlier':3", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04985763893377754, "week": -0.31590074086153397, "month": -0.31590074086153397}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04985763893377754, "probChangeWeek": -0.31590074086153397, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.31590074086153397}, {"id": "lrzp8qapby", "prob": 0.49915792535617304, "text": "2026 - 2027", "index": 1, "poolNo": 16.63862110843906, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.69475949764189, "textFts": "'2026':1 '2027':2", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11004681611542749, "week": -0.16477275328605806, "month": -0.16477275328605806}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.11004681611542749, "probChangeWeek": -0.16477275328605806, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.16477275328605806}, {"id": "ixgfc5xerb", "prob": 0.37495954912097706, "text": "2028 - 2029", "index": 2, "poolNo": 12.90883044503779, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.518431043035104, "textFts": "'2028':1 '2029':2", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12504045087902294, "week": -0.12504045087902294, "month": -0.12504045087902294}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12504045087902294, "probChangeWeek": -0.12504045087902294, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.12504045087902294}, {"id": "mb8qfakezj", "prob": 0.3525802002559016, "text": "2030 - 2031", "index": 3, "poolNo": 12.299422522963404, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.58461950218867, "textFts": "'2030':1 '2031':2", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": -0.27246025062312135, "week": -0.1474197997440984, "month": -0.1474197997440984}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.27246025062312135, "probChangeWeek": -0.1474197997440984, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.1474197997440984}, {"id": "yjqke4yv0g", "prob": 0.5989089364802669, "text": "2032 (or later)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 20.366089753904284, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.639229775294812, "textFts": "'2032':1 'later':3", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2792136917445639, "month": 0.2792136917445639}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2792136917445639, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0.2792136917445639}, {"id": "3zkq5txmgp", "prob": 0.1155108899922902, "text": "Never", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6.023015343821683, "userId": "En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.11938737010157, "textFts": "'never':1", "contractId": "vqoz7sc4ak", "createdTime": 1718639091292, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3844891100077098, "month": -0.3844891100077098}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3844891100077098, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.3844891100077098}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718735202200 | 1718709356191 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | o3okhlw9yi | {"NO": 10.897487354756379, "YES": 917.6427257458905} | 0 | will-there-be-silksong-news-in-the | 957.2525496005289 | Will there be Silksong news in the June 18th Nintendo Direct? | 1718726235303 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718639662770 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.202949975441491, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718726235303 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1718726457449 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718721658290 | 1718726456176 | 0.01 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2g286wurba | if-biden-beats-trump-a-2nd-time-wil | 0 | If Biden beats Trump a 2nd time, will he be a greater Democrat president than Obama? | 1735678740000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718640388944 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A lot of shy Biden fanboi Dems in my circle think he's the better president on policy/outcomes but are scared losing to Trump will negate any accomplishments he might have had. If he somehow beats Trump, will that accomplishment and the consolidation of the previous four years make his a better ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Democrat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " presidency than Obama? Or do vibes matter just as much as policy? Ideally only Dem or Dem-friendly voters ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | dlin007 | 1718640428763 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1blp9kbwr8 | lets-all-bet-on-what-slay-the-spire | 9075 | Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town | 1782889140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.040120258613312 | False | plus | public | 1718641004730 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All claims about sts1 are referring to the main base game without mods, latest version produced by the original devs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claims will be resolved by the game at release through updates up to 1 week. Only the initial payment game counts not expansions etc also sold at the point sts2 is released. For example, if it appears to have an extra playable character but a bug prevents it from actually being used til after the deadline it would NOT count. The main thing we use to decide (and we have to have some way to do so) is with this time limit. Also, it includes unlockable content, even content that is hard to unlock. But, if content is hinted at in screenshots, but with doubt, actually is in the game, but nobody gets to unlock it until the time limit is reached.... Woohoo boy that would be tough to judge.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claims about cards being in the game mean they are playable as normal cards, and not as flavor images or mentioned in a diary entry cut scene.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claims include content only unlockable with skill or by other means for the general public purchasers of the game, including payment, as long as \"most\" of the public could potentially get it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The public refers to the USA only because otherwise it's too complicated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall I'll try to reduce resolution surprise. I want to resolve markets the way they are meant, not strictly on rare cases. But please help clarify issues. I'll extend close time to keep things meaningful. If the game never ships then I guess it all goes NA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I invite all playtesters, devs, players and also the entire population of the universe plus bots to bet as long as it is legal (for me) for you to do that, and as long as you are not violating your own beneficial moral system. 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0.5000000000000003 | cidasx8uui | {"NO": 780.9385899680547, "YES": 1280.5104176512853} | 1 | will-i-do-4h-or-less-of-work-on-gra-mpz3dna7nn | 770.015896530792 | Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | 1719176340000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579850209288766 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718641211339 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan for only 4 hours this week because of my full time summer job.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last week I figured out the layout weirdness to support a vscode-like notification widget so this week I'll probably implement the whole notification system and also a ctrl+shift+p menu with commands.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: if I do more than 4h this resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.072597395155125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719194706124 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1719176340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719166681206 | 1719194697141 | 0.38 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ci02v6tf2j | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-k9d8pwqhfd | 0 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Wed. Jun. 19th Compared To Its Close On Tue. Jun. 18th? | 1718654006946 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718642379807 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Wed. Jun. 19th Compared To Its Close On Tue. Jun. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ASIA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikkei 225 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NI225:INDEXNIKKEI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SSE Composite Index (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/000001:SHA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hang Seng Index (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HSI:INDEXHANGSENG", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BSE SENSEX (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SENSEX:INDEXBOM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NIFTY 50 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EUROPE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FTSE 100 (LSE) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "FTSE 100 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DAX:INDEXDB", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EURO STOXX 50 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IBEX 35 (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/INDI:INDEXBME", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SMI (Google Finance)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SMI:INDEXSWX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "USA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S&P 500", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dow Jones", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russell 2000", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Close/Open Times ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(The Times Listed May Be Off Slightly Due To Daylight Savings And Will Be Corrected Once Further Confirmed)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikkei 225: 8pm ET-2am ET / 1am UTC-7am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shanghai & Hang Seng: 930pm ET-3am ET / 230am UTC-8am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BSE & NIFTY 50: 1045pm ET-5am ET / 345am UTC-10am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Europe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All Markets: 3am ET-12:30pm ET / 9am - 5:30pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FTSE opens/closes at 1 hour earlier at 11:30am ET / 4:30pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "USA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All Markets: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a stock closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve NO for the respective Stock Index.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IF A STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED FOR THE DAY, IT WILL RESOLVE 50%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Not Applicable At This Time", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. 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ur8j3t4kiq | -global-stocks-asia-europe-us-will-04d3m7b11s | 0 | 📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Fri. Jun. 21st Compared To Its Close On Thu. Jun. 20th? | 1718653912960 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1718642517653 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📈🌎 Global Stocks (Asia, Europe, US): Will Each Close Higher On Fri. Jun. 21st Compared To Its Close On Thu. 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"text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Close/Open Times ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(The Times Listed May Be Off Slightly Due To Daylight Savings And Will Be Corrected Once Further Confirmed)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikkei 225: 8pm ET-2am ET / 1am UTC-7am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shanghai & Hang Seng: 930pm ET-3am ET / 230am UTC-8am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BSE & NIFTY 50: 1045pm ET-5am ET / 345am UTC-10am UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Europe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All Markets: 3am ET-12:30pm ET / 9am - 5:30pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FTSE opens/closes at 1 hour earlier at 11:30am ET / 4:30pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "USA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All Markets: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a stock closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve NO for the respective Stock Index.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IF A STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED FOR THE DAY, IT WILL RESOLVE 50%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Not Applicable At This Time", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. 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0.49999999999999983 | x237vaxcb6 | {"NO": 5660.278602150953, "YES": 176.66974901553286} | 0.9697325145972507 | will-the-kouprey-bos-sauveli-become | 6692.994374066287 | Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8841850575031 | False | basic | public | 1718642663369 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Kouprey, aka forest ox and grey ox, is a species of forest-dwelling wild bovine native to Southeast Asia. With the last confirmed sighting of a wild animal in 1969 the species is listed as critically endangered (possibly extinct) by the IUCN. This market will resolve YES if the Kouprey is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kouprey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kouprey", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically endangered (possibly extinct):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2890/46363360", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2890/46363360", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/ExtinctionRisk?tab=questions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ExtinctionRisk?tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.46973251459725074} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.72702378275949, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ExtinctionRisk | 1719514675406 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719514672137 | 1719306680334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kjjkolx3od | which-2024-us-presidential-election | 1076.0264464623065 | Which 2024 US presidential election forecasting product will be the most accurate? | 1731139140000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718643606217 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Process", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": On the first day of the three months prior to the US presidential election (i.e. 1 Sep, 1 Oct, 1 Nov) I will record in a spreadsheet the probabilities (rounded to nearest integer) each forecasting product has most recently assigned to either a Democrat or Republican winning in each Electoral College region. When the actual results are finalized post-election, I will take a Brier score based on the forecasts made for the candidate that ultimately won, and add up the total for each forecasting product.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The forecasting product with the lowest Brier score resolves YES, all other forecasting products resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Inclusion", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": For an election forecasting product to be eligible to resolve YES, the forecasting product must:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "make forecasts for all or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nearly all Electoral College regions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (e.g. if a forecasting product doesn't track the special districts in Maine and Nebraska, but covers all 50 state-level races, that's fine; so this criterion excludes ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/experiments/elections/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which only covers 19 battleground states)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "numeric probabilities", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (can’t just label races as “toss-up” or “likely”, needs to be like a percentage chance out of 100)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "public ", "type": 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"_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which has some election markets, won’t qualify unless they put together something systematic and organized in the fashion of Polymarket or Manifold)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "not be too obscure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " or small; so a lone non-famous analyst making a forecasting product would not merit inclusion", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An election forecasting product that someone adds to this question that fails any of these criteria for inclusion will resolve NO and I won’t track its probabilities.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Below are links to the forecasting products that meet the criteria for inclusion so far:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FiveThirtyEight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Economist", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Hill / Decision Desk HQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline 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d3t13f6010 | which-session-at-manifest-2024-was | 0 | Which session at Manifest 2024 was your favorite? | 1719273540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718644967114 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The winner of this poll will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/which-session-at-manifest-2024-will", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A single-vote poll isn't a great way to measure popular opinion when there are 18 options, so you can also show your support for your favorite sessions with a separate survey using approval voting (i.e. vote for any number of sessions that you think are deserving). ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Here's the survey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forms.gle/hWujsHb8ZorCSZrX9", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please don't vote multiple times. Honor system—there are no stakes to this result, & I didn't want to require sign-in (given some users preference for anonymity). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719273541153 | Ziddletwix | 1719253072222 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718802468601 | ["38xcwwqhsk"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42533539829017275 | exxz391dr2 | {"NO": 1070.1960869951902, "YES": 909.7390130528609} | 0.4654379236607773 | will-the-usa-vs-adobe-trial-be-drop | 220 | Will the USA vs Adobe trial be dropped / dismissed / thrown out before it goes to trial? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.745503358203997 | False | basic | public | 1718645353235 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ft-ZxJIh_ZG.png?alt=media&token=c6e658ab-27a0-4844-acf1-232dffd50431", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0345620763392227} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.686358718461442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719145904863 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719145901803 | 1718685888084 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k5c0flw238 | are-present-levels-of-fluoridation | 0 | Are present levels of fluoridation in US public water supply generally too high, too low, etc.? | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718645405990 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Arcmage7000 | 1718645406034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mwwhycl5ya | will-the-usa-vs-adobe-trial-be-drop-2s75ztzqdy | 76 | What will be the outcome of the USA vs Adobe trial? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718645524719 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/17/24180196/adobe-us-ftc-doj-sues-subscriptions-cancel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUkojiIdiIZ.png?alt=media&token=0793fe4b-65ec-4144-b063-f570811d19e1", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3175533798701264, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718787338353 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d9a68t11io", "prob": 0.05143621562827588, "text": "Verdict in favor of Adobe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.821585002012856, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 107.35907828948663, "textFts": "'adob':5 'favor':3 'verdict':1", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 1718645524719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03783301399992221, "week": -0.12737998501030234, "month": -0.12737998501030234}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03783301399992221, "probChangeWeek": -0.12737998501030234, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.12737998501030234}, {"id": "sw018k9zwx", "prob": 0.2126018620250756, "text": "Verdict in favor of the USA", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.990514406780624, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.11202854859782, "textFts": "'favor':3 'usa':6 'verdict':1", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 1718645524719, "probChanges": {"day": 0.007083430010539071, "week": -0.024073238985620166, "month": -0.024073238985620166}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.007083430010539071, "probChangeWeek": -0.024073238985620166, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.024073238985620166}, {"id": "ihz5ou59yf", "prob": 0.3088209024633534, "text": "Settled in favor of USA", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.71083128891729, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.40089222338706, "textFts": "'favor':3 'settl':1 'usa':5", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 1718645524719, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012210210838931312, "week": 0.09421981269222807, "month": 0.09421981269222807}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.012210210838931312, "probChangeWeek": 0.09421981269222807, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.09421981269222807}, {"id": "4o0ma6lh31", "prob": 0.33055401778199583, "text": "Dismissed / dropped / doesn't go to trial", "index": 3, "poolNo": 17.567236946254763, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.577592646591256, "textFts": "'dismiss':1 'doesn':3 'drop':2 'go':5 'trial':7", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 1718645524719, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012635273312648465, "week": 0.10591033289031304, "month": 0.10591033289031304}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.012635273312648465, "probChangeWeek": 0.10591033289031304, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.10591033289031304}, {"id": "w84lnbeldq", "prob": 0.0965870021012991, "text": "Settled in favor of Adobe", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.174405632258363, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.45815831961956, "textFts": "'adob':5 'favor':3 'settl':1", "contractId": "mwwhycl5ya", "createdTime": 1718645524719, "probChanges": {"day": 0.005904099837802934, "week": -0.0486769215866191, "month": -0.0486769215866191}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.005904099837802934, "probChangeWeek": -0.0486769215866191, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.0486769215866191}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718787335165 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hqkvdxrsky | {"NO": 44.96025913184373, "YES": 222.4186468915916} | 0.16815185535953625 | will-adobe-acquire-figma-by-the-end-h3cmyjaikt | 125 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718645652576 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Adobe attempted to acquire", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/15/23354532/adobe-figma-acquisition-20-billion-official", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " the product design platform Figma for $20 billion, but it ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "abandoned the deal last year after facing antitrust scrutiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/20/24008189/adobe-figma-deal-eu-explained-decoder", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " from European regulators.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.33184814464046375} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5813531084084085, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719874065985 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718650410441 | 1719874060220 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | xe9yhfdr6v | {"NO": 543.2025432199916, "YES": 1840.9339434830479} | 0 | will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e2-title | 3107.1939133455826 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E2 ("Rhaenyra the Cruel") be rated >8.6 on IMDB, 2 days after release? | 1719190740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629100987937157 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718645824004 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E2 (\"Rhaenyra the Cruel\") IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27133251/?ref_=ttep_ep2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (June 25th), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD S1:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 86.88030612791631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719341365208 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719345667697 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719188483438 | 1719345665623 | 0.23 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nxf4rczq3m | {"NO": 43.9817270164919, "YES": 227.36715173213366} | 0.16208553069878745 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in | 130 | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718646680384 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if dismissed, dropped, or still in process.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a settlement or judgement for either side.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.33791446930121255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6328482678663225, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719145788479 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719145785308 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | ico5q2ix7x | {"NO": 124.2432210587677, "YES": 80.48728868088463} | 0.6068622659942715 | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-trjek9s81y | 25 | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of May 2025? | 1748750340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718646713980 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if dismissed, dropped, or still in process.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a settlement or judgement for either side.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10686226599427151} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1718687952036 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718654526838 | 1718687950982 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tdnvmmn3v2 | {"NO": 1360.4923862031287, "YES": 735.0280017301727} | 0.6492384393095355 | will-charlie-get-to-bed-by-1230am-a | 378 | Will @Charlie get to bed by 12:30am at least 2 times this week? | 1719237720000 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585107667677601 | False | public | 1718647352411 | emile.chat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.1492384393095355} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.84974286560999, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | emile | 1719235424741 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691876598453 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719235421613 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | ctz6todnzb | {"NO": 314.63386623237164, "YES": 3178.2974031837184} | 0 | when-all-the-votes-are-counted-in-t | 6970.174148800191 | When all the votes are counted in the UK's general election, will Reform UK poll more votes than the Conservative Party? | 1720047540000 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.789702283288065 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718647434316 | Harry Hayfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of the election, when the 650th constituency has declared will Reform UK have more votes than the Conservative Party? This question will resolve as YES, if Reform UK have a higher vote tally than the Conservatives and NO, if the reverse is true", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.09007731385592625, "week": -0.17465323427025778, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 128.9442766082906, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720164623708 | 1000 | HarryHayfield | 1720047540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | 45 | 12 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708098506766 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720046149979 | 1718863147682 | 0.09 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
at50v2pqeo | are-you-hoarding-prize-points-until | 0 | Are you hoarding prize points until cash payouts are available? | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718649575473 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | redcat | 1718692416882 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718692416103 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | r0hd6k9cdb | {"NO": 977.5555768176505, "YES": 1149.6340473659554} | 0.12159266529829271 | will-lightcone-infrastructurelesswr | 151 | Will "Lightcone Infrastructure/LessWrong is looking..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.91041398620817 | False | public | 1718649694476 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lightcone Infrastructure/LessWrong is looking for funding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iDw6ugMPk7pmXuyW/lightcone-infrastructure-lesswrong-is-looking-for-funding", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.0184073347017073} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3659526340447548, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718731262506 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718731259458 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999979 | kuyx98lwik | {"NO": 814.6145327889426, "YES": 12.275744658966062} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-w2umdc0ugw | 853.765510241664 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 18 than it closed on June 17? | 1718740927876 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718654798087 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.697663253279067, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718740927876 | 100 | JimFix | 1718740927876 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718740741817 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 02nt5200z7 | {"NO": 539.6328712300689, "YES": 1853.1117233843563} | 0.2255288226100987 | will-i-be-laid-off-before-the-start | 1430.8841883555965 | Will I be laid off before the start of 2025? | 1735765140000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.630398461037245 | False | basic | public | 1718654798214 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a software engineer at a no-name mid-size startup. I've been working at this job for ~18 months now but have been mailing it in for the last 6 months, mostly because I'm somewhat burnt out, and don't particularly care for the product or my work. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That was fine when the company was doing well, but revenues are down and management is demanding more of our small dev team. Try as I might though, I just can't bring myself to summon any motivation to do my best work here daily. Since interviews are hard to come by, and my nest egg is rather thin, I am sticking it out and going to attempt to do the minimum amount of work possible to not get fired at least until the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm scared that this continued half-ass won't work though, because management definitely know it's a buyer's market and are being more assertive and management-y and demanding. A few low-performing teammates have been let go already. Will I avoid this fate and manage to do enough to stay at the job until at least 1st Jan 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "points in favor of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my team (core product team) is very small (5 devs) and codebase is legacy so hiring and onboarding a new developer is very costly. especially for the upcoming cycle which is peak business cycle", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "business has had unusually high turnover to start the year and company mood is kinda low so i doubt management would want to exacerbate that", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i still have not/never received any direct concerns about my work, so it's all in my head at the moment", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "points in favor of YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "been mailing it for a while and its obvious to anyone who cares to see, so i might be a bit on thin ice", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "easy to get new hires", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "no PIP policy, just straight canning", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve this NO if I'm still formally employed at this job at the start of the new year, and YES if i'm terminated before then. N/A for any ambiguous circumstances, like i resign etc", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my incentives are obviously strongly to keep the job, but I will buy and sell yes/no shares randomly", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.001977564218936023, "month": -0.2744711773899013} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.887125776992, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719872630847 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719872627700 | 1718693531933 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kunxgmp71i | first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w | 248951.62740411694 | First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say? | 1719542280000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.562407395294354 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1718656159577 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These options resolve YES if Trump says the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sequence of words at the first debate. Examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Winner\", \"won\", or \"winnings\" do ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count for \"winning\". ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Laughing at all of us\" would ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count for \"laughing at us\".", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However this only refers to the sequence of words, any punctuation is fine—\"horrible radical, left lunatic\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "does", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count for \"radical left\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To help find these, I plan to check the transcript from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CPD website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". But the transcript won't necessarily be the ultimate source (e.g. it might slightly diverge in spelling, punctuation, usage of contractions, etc)—as long as it sounds like he said the phrase in the debate audio (and not some other word), I will err on the side of YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market refers to the first debate held between Biden & Trump in 2024, as long as it is before July 31st (currently: June 27th, on CNN).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debate is cancelled or postponed beyond then, I will ask the mods to N/A this market, as I don't want to lock up mana for the next 5 months.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close before the first debate begins (to recoup liquidity). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can add your own submissions, but note that it costs 1000M (this is a Plus market), and I reserve the right to N/A any that don't follow the current format (or for any reason).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submissions don't need to explicitly be \"Trump-isms\"—e.g. you can add \"Venezuela\" or \"Artificial intelligence\" if you want to bet that he'll mention them. It just needs to be a sequence of words.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more general betting on \"what will happen in the debate\", check out ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics"}}, {"text": " 's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "official prop bet market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Examples", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not count: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Winner\", \"won\", or \"winnings\" do not count for \"winning\". ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Radical leftism\" does not count for \"radical left\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Illegal immigrants\" or \"illegal migrant\" does not count for \"illegal migrants\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"MAGA\" does not count for \"Make America Great Again\". ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Beautiful, big, wall\" does not count for \"beautiful wall\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Booming economy” does not count for “boomer”.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Radical islamic terrorism” and “radical Islamic terrorist” do not count for “radical Islamic terrorists”.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does count: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Blood bath\" counts for \"bloodbath\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Horrible radical, left lunatic\" counts for \"radical left\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"America the beautiful. 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0.5000000000000001 | di0wi62uxz | {"NO": 468.1407224509291, "YES": 2136.1098320277415} | 0.17976024681874112 | will-russia-open-a-new-front-in-ukr | 2445.277483911325 | Will Russia open a new front in Ukraine before September 1, 2024? | 1722463200000 | peK1Btlxaih1Yl7qp4Dc3f7kktQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.662018266413618 | False | basic | public | 1718659213317 | Myst | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market aims to predict whether Russia will open a new front in Ukraine before September 1, 2024. \"Opening a new front\" means initiating a significant new offensive operation in an area that has been relatively quiet or not heavily contested in recent months, similar to the offensive near Kharkiv in May. This would involve substantial troop movements, and artillery.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For clarity, this does not include minor skirmishes or localized engagements but rather a coordinated effort.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0069986774509774585, "month": -0.32023975318125886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.68703869696158, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JanTozicka | 1720107861244 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_wSM71ajcllI25Ph91iwc9Rv9PA6WrtT_Ta46bb1HQbZiiQ=s96-c | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715781126003 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720107858182 | 1719296740086 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14000000000000004 | 6g3hjq9s0r | {"NO": 982.0935545294826, "YES": 1117.387619683646} | 0.12517050563891746 | will-getting-50-sota-on-arcagi-with | 425 | Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.907010807218205 | False | public | 1718659482319 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rdwui3wHxCeKb7feK/getting-50-sota-on-arc-agi-with-gpt-4o", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014829494361082551} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.664144317327758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719515423095 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719515419877 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
l1k6b0m80r | is-the-probability-of-observing-you | 0 | Is the probability of observing yourself to be a human closer to 1 or closer to 0? | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718660826688 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1718661926628 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718661925498 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
euyw53386w | which-crew-vehicle-will-launch-isro | 2054.4279898270966 | Which crew vehicle will launch ISRO astronauts to the ISS under the new collaboration with NASA? | 1830293940000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718662103949 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is about the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announcement today", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/17/joint-fact-sheet-the-united-states-and-india-continue-to-chart-an-ambitious-course-for-the-initiative-on-critical-and-emerging-technology/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Securing a carrier for the first-ever joint effort between NASA and ISRO astronauts at the International Space Station, which will mark a significant milestone in the U.S.-India space partnership and space exploration", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's not mentioned which carrier this will be.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to suggest other carriers if you think them likely, and I'll add them to the options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1802814066596978751"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.93617390494872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mqrius | 1718732221063 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ofjfoegdh3", "prob": 0.8262734108611588, "text": "SpaceX Dragon", "index": 0, "poolNo": 545.2161992552158, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 114.6334244752398, "textFts": "'dragon':2 'spacex':1", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day": 0.6495366305468393, "week": 0.6495366305468393, "month": 0.6495366305468393}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.6495366305468393, "probChangeWeek": 0.6495366305468393, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.6495366305468393}, {"id": "ka56qkkolk", "prob": 0.04868677727805297, "text": "Boeing Starliner", "index": 1, "poolNo": 56.55666029344876, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1105.0864686088903, "textFts": "'boe':1 'starlin':2", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1463343735502819, "week": -0.1463343735502819, "month": -0.1463343735502819}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1463343735502819, "probChangeWeek": -0.1463343735502819, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.1463343735502819}, {"id": "xe4p5gekyc", "prob": 0.09706225317703317, "text": "ISRO Gaganyaan", "index": 2, "poolNo": 81.96648068241286, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 762.5068135127372, "textFts": "'gaganyaan':2 'isro':1", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13275186104780393, "week": -0.13275186104780393, "month": -0.13275186104780393}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13275186104780393, "probChangeWeek": -0.13275186104780393, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.13275186104780393}, {"id": "4oatvri5dj", "prob": 0.013988779341877467, "text": "Roscosmos Soyuz", "index": 3, "poolNo": 29.777551877583377, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2098.896519664878, "textFts": "'roscosmo':1 'soyuz':2", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18522519797437684, "week": -0.18522519797437684, "month": -0.18522519797437684}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.18522519797437684, "probChangeWeek": -0.18522519797437684, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.18522519797437684}, {"id": "f6r8c1ojw3", "prob": 0.013988779341877467, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 29.777551877583377, "userId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2098.896519664878, "textFts": "", "contractId": "euyw53386w", "createdTime": 1718662103949, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18522519797437684, "week": -0.18522519797437684, "month": -0.18522519797437684}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.18522519797437684, "probChangeWeek": -0.18522519797437684, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.18522519797437684}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718732217980 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 72hptqnmr8 | {"NO": 73.61186269998372, "YES": 135.84766956321306} | 0.3514371578347965 | will-central-park-record-a-100degre | 260.02137472812547 | Will Central Park record a 100-degree day this summer? | 1725249540000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718663781282 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the past century, these days have always occured before September.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.020325295233232676, "month": -0.1485628421652035} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.384517944911348, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | burkh4rt | 1719924457970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719924454848 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fegky8gu94 | {"NO": 95.38819365450189, "YES": 104.83477689304215} | 0.47640984145648485 | will-michael-vassar-be-at-manifest | 53.557078435038804 | Will Michael vassar be at manifest 2025 | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718664098600 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02359015854351515} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6081446719190606, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719621698447 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719621695241 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fuv9cu6vck | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-augur-in-2030-be-less-than-hal | 0 | Will Augur (in 2030) be less than half the size it was in 2020? | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718665935738 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1718665935738 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 4pogvutjl3 | {"NO": 1223.0389307421706, "YES": 290.3132402993845} | 0.40681290257693803 | will-ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-depl | 326.51896419464765 | Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.815248200101063 | False | public | 1718666185562 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ceBpLHJDdCt3xfEok/ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-deployments", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.27344441663581476, "month": 0.266812902576938} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.077566463511811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719890961796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719890957494 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 3qjbyk0got | {"NO": 200.00000000000003, "YES": 49.999999999999986} | 0.8000000000000002 | will-silent-hill-2-have-a-metacriti | 102.2941927288735 | Will Silent Hill 2 have a Metacritic score of 80 or higher as of October 10th? | 1728619140000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668540878 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.30000000000000016} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2941927288734663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718731360357 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718731357306 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cagkc74pqp | {"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133} | 0.5632213064865212 | will-sonic-x-shadow-generations-hav | 14 | Will Sonic x Shadow Generations have a Metacritic score of 75 or higher as of October 27th? | 1730087940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668653809 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06322130648652124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4443322677109916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718668665366 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668662329 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kfgb7ekvyf | {"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133} | 0.5632213064865212 | will-assassins-creed-shadows-have-a | 14 | Will Assassin's Creed Shadows have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of November 17th? | 1731905940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718668928724 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06322130648652124} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4443322677109916, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1718668942166 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718668939124 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | sio5b4gfoe | {"NO": 213.55464634895702, "YES": 46.82642204684038} | 0.8201619559542596 | will-microsoft-flight-simulator-202 | 236.65870782994742 | Will Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of November 21st? | 1732251540000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669096436 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0571918668676662, "month": 0.32016195595425956} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.923394784217876, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Panfilo | 1720063100895 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720063097831 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | aqruvjb425 | {"NO": 142.7753743164625, "YES": 70.04008953137075} | 0.6708881569741068 | will-the-85th-anniversary-of-dday-h | 82.91491349037008 | Will the 85th anniversary of D-Day have any living D-Day WW2 veterans show up? | 1874375940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718669155965 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be D-Day alone, not just general WW2", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17088815697410675} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3097121931674294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719478744950 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718670205420 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5a0ujcqrb7 | if-trump-or-other-republican-wins-i | 2494.141070957445 | If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028? | 1861945140000 | 7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.820762042229573 | False | plus | public | 1718670022718 | Nick Jarboe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the cabinet level position is eliminated the department is considered eliminated. A merger of two departments that end up with only cabinet secretary would count as one department eliminated. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.664039980725704, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | NickJarboe | 1718720251376 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJKg-9_GCESqOcP35eO0sZ8_MDBw9lqgmJK1yGL0oCdo4VOVaY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1s88xid51a", "prob": 0.6184511700567583, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3849.027428897083, "userId": "7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2374.6287225559713, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "5a0ujcqrb7", "createdTime": 1718670022719, "probChanges": {"day": 0.4304168541203413, "week": 0.4304168541203413, "month": 0.4304168541203413}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.4304168541203413, "probChangeWeek": 0.4304168541203413, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.4304168541203413}, {"id": "h67y4w4577", "prob": 0.16903431208553854, "text": "1", "index": 1, "poolNo": 885.7239211300173, "userId": "7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4354.18216776987, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "5a0ujcqrb7", "createdTime": 1718670022719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03622855987199225, "week": -0.03622855987199225, "month": -0.03622855987199225}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03622855987199225, "probChangeWeek": -0.03622855987199225, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.03622855987199225}, {"id": "w5qs7yuyni", "prob": 0.09029211743084685, "text": "2", "index": 2, "poolNo": 519.8442509610946, "userId": "7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5237.51603421811, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "5a0ujcqrb7", "createdTime": 1718670022719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11250243649476908, "week": -0.11250243649476908, "month": -0.11250243649476908}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.11250243649476908, "probChangeWeek": -0.11250243649476908, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.11250243649476908}, {"id": "8eekk944d1", "prob": 0.07523514096884999, "text": "3", "index": 3, "poolNo": 434.23378435619765, "userId": "7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5337.454535281375, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "5a0ujcqrb7", "createdTime": 1718670022719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12712438555335032, "week": -0.12712438555335032, "month": -0.12712438555335032}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12712438555335032, "probChangeWeek": -0.12712438555335032, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.12712438555335032}, {"id": "lk6j0rkl0k", "prob": 0.04698725945800634, "text": "More than 3", "index": 4, "poolNo": 265.41076708047984, "userId": "7I6ZhXaDLTQMdrzM3LEW52VuP9F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5383.158018202346, "textFts": "'3':3", "contractId": "5a0ujcqrb7", "createdTime": 1718670022719, "probChanges": {"day": -0.15456147220022975, "week": -0.15456147220022975, "month": -0.15456147220022975}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.15456147220022975, "probChangeWeek": -0.15456147220022975, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.15456147220022975}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717443332950 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718720248292 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46617151214335356 | entdprj7xl | {"NO": 84276.4363835523, "YES": 743.3869836297363} | 1 | will-the-manifold-twitter-community | 93241.47002555415 | Will the Manifold Twitter Community reach 100 members within 2 weeks? | 1718750295871 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.138465677675938 | True | plus | YES | public | 1718671340240 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Come join! It's like a big group chat where we can hangout on twitter - I even use my real face/name on my personal twitter acc, so if you didn't see me at Manifest, you can see who I am!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(you have to join the community though)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold X Community", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/i/communities/1802848512008483257", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please manipulate 😃 feel free to steal this format & create markets for other milestones. We might subsidize them!", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 749.0881345395541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718750295871 | 10000 | Gen | 1718750295871 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668776584415 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718746927098 | 1718748080402 | 0.99 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bncbwig9zb | trump-is-clearly-in-the-middle-stag | 17 | Trump is clearly in the middle stage of Alzheimer's. In which year will he "step back from public appearances"? | 1735707540000 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718680888711 | Stephen S Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm only providing answers up to 2028 because that's as long as he likely has to live. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question closes end of this year, but will be resolved when he has to retreat from public life (or is forced to by his handlers), dies or Jan 1, 2029. His press statement doesn't have to use my exact wording. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is not dependent on Trump being president, being drummed out by the 25th Amendment, squirreled away like Wilson after his stroke with the country run by whichever quisling or toady comes out on top, or his being imprisoned either in a jail or at one of his mansions. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4939695184948247, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StephenSPower | 1718682482039 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hap8nftjyb", "prob": 0.38211075883350337, "text": "2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.659810394834174, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.790744033026144, "textFts": "'2025':1", "contractId": "bncbwig9zb", "createdTime": 1718680888711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8itlb1yonc", "prob": 0.6584981450481372, "text": "2026", "index": 1, "poolNo": 34.715286448479034, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.00359622345513, "textFts": "'2026':1", "contractId": "bncbwig9zb", "createdTime": 1718680888711, "probChanges": {"day": 0.1584981450481372, "week": 0.1584981450481372, "month": 0.1584981450481372}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.1584981450481372, "probChangeWeek": 0.1584981450481372, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.1584981450481372}, {"id": "skgd8bsklr", "prob": 0.5, "text": "2027", "index": 2, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'2027':1", "contractId": "bncbwig9zb", "createdTime": 1718680888711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "gjs6rvtn0r", "prob": 0.5, "text": "2028", "index": 3, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'2028':1", "contractId": "bncbwig9zb", "createdTime": 1718680888711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696858950851 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718682478993 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6r0uzavprn | {"NO": 88.03727028738587, "YES": 113.58825605742128} | 0 | will-a-major-media-outlet-say-trump | 119.12135800010005 | Will a major media outlet say Trump's meandering, confusion and rage during the 6/27 debate is caused by sundowning? | 1719460740000 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718681689238 | Stephen S Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia on sundowning: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundowning", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundowning", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That rightwing outlets will say Biden was sundowning despite being as lucid as Lincoln at Gettysburg, is inevitable. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes the day before the debate to prevent sniping. Resolves the Sunday after the debate to give the media time to come to its senses. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By outlet I mean anyone platformed by the outlet: reporter, opinionist, guest, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4366375224574995, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.714611321297493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719675970066 | 100 | StephenSPower | 1719676013672 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c | 9 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696858950851 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719441338580 | 1719676012415 | 0.44 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wyx18nvr2f | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-98 | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 98) | 1719461618401 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718687782787 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] NOP", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading post established in Washington (+1 era score)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Japan negotiated peace with Mongolia", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Random actions to proceed:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answered Japan \"Well met, but we're busy\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Seven units skipped turn", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Combat:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ichabod attacked by barbarian warrior", "type": 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0.4999999999999999 | 8sm1uk5j7k | {"NO": 13825.612018871278, "YES": 7232.952860495781} | 0.6565315394506039 | will-author-steven-brust-complete-t | 5209 | Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028? | 1861941600000 | D3MeAINv5uMz6cDoiGSOcU1U1TG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7755236931075022 | False | plus | public | 1718689697607 | chaos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://dragaera.fandom.com/wiki/Book_list", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dragaera.fandom.com/wiki/Book_list", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the Dragaera series is planned to have 19 books, 17 of which have been published, with Chreotha and The Last Contract remaining. Will the author, Steven Brust, successfully complete both works, with them published in any form, before January 1st, 2029?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0032034503085972554, "month": 0.15653153945060383} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.81752669124123, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | chaos | 1719893032411 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691035565459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719893029338 | 1719107673197 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000006 | igq2bo6gl9 | {"NO": 1244.1623347754755, "YES": 803.7536357186563} | 0.6075260668411501 | purchased-kindle-ebooks-censored-or | 1264.5209215849177 | Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030. | 1893513540000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577758149309531 | False | basic | public | 1718697135329 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if, before 2030, Amazon prevents people from reading or downloading eBooks that they previously purchased from Amazon because the content violates Amazon's content policies. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, if Amazon blocks you from reading or downloading your eBook copy of Huckleberry Finn because the n-word violates new content guidelines, then this resolves as YES. If your Kindle copy of the Satanic Verses has paragraphs or pages censored or omitted because Amazon considers them Islamophobic, then this resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Amazon is enforcing a country's censorship laws, that does not count. For example, if you go to China, tune into Wifi, and find that your copy of Xi Jinpeng's unauthorized biography is blocked by Amazon, then this claim does not resolves as YES. In that case, Amazon is likely censoring the eBook to comply with China's wishes, not because Amazon thinks the content is objectionable. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decision criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- If a reputable old-media company reports that Amazon is censoring purchased content, then the claim resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- If a high-circulation new media (e.g. Substack) outlet which employs fact checkers says Amazon is censoring purchased content, then the claim resolves as YES, depending on whether I find the news source to be credible.. (If Bari Weiss' The Free Press reports that Amazon has censored or blocked books, then I'll mark this as YES.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- If I cannot access one of my Amazon Kindle books and Amazon tells me that the previously-purchased book violates their content policy, then this resolves as YES. I \"own\" several Kindle eBooks that would probably be censored. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- Critically important: the book has to be an eBook which could previously be purchased on Kindle, but is blocked by Amazon because of an evolving interpretation of their content policy. So if Marine Le Pen publishes a book called \"Throw all of the Muslims into the Ocean\" in 2024 and Amazon refuses, from the outset, to sell a single copy, then that does not cause this claim to resolve as YES. However, if I buy a Kindle copy of Christopher Rufo's book \"America's Cultural Revolution: How the Left Conquered Everything\" in 2024, and I cannot access it in 2027 because the content is banned by Amazon as hate speech, then this resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Amazon deletes or censors your eBook purchase and they give you a refund or credit for the money you spent, this claim still resolves as YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10752606684115007} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.88114207518824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarrisonLucas | 1718875908198 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664585067255 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718875905067 | 1718799218711 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If something unexpectedly becomes subjective after I've already established a position I will outsource resolution if necessary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't promise to watch so religiously that I don't miss any of these, so bettors should proactively seek resolutions, but I do promise to go back and check time stamps if provided.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close this set of questions the day before the finale is broadcast on Nebula, and will not resolve until it has been shown on YouTube. Obviously information will have been transferred in many markets before then, so participate at your own risk of spoilers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Likewise individual markets will resolve after relevant evidence is on YouTube.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In general, events must appear on screen to count. If footage or audio is lost but the episode still confirms it took place ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and mattered", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " that would count, but referring to something happening in a way that makes it clear not showing it was an editorial choice would not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In this context, physical location or mode of transport always matters.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things we see or here during the 'outro' where the producers talk directly to camera in a studio setting do not count, unless specified.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: Likewise anything shown in an outtakes episode.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Before the finale is broadcast on Nebula. 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