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0.5000000000000001 | 90my0q1t5w | {"NO": 85.28478080316674, "YES": 117.25421471246472} | 0.4210783241323259 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-gxkevaibpj | 210.40520563018936 | Will we get fusion drives before 2044? | 2340831540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718708897124 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2044, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. 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8cjinpftie | which-teams-will-qualify-for-the-se | 26186.620187617635 | Which Teams Will Qualify for the Semifinals in the 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup? | 1719296393458 | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1718709211907 | vibhav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All teams included who qualified for the Super 8 round of the World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams are in either Group 1 or 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each team will play three matches, one each against every other team in their group", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After all teams have played their respective matches, the top two (decided by win-loss record) teams in each group qualify for the semifinals. 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e31tqfvu1q | which-manga-series-will-finish-befo | 923.12028481877 | Which manga series will finish before One Piece does? | 1721339940000 | zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718713346985 | Punished Ten Shino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.919349854112756, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | TenShino | 1719109738813 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "hloqee19kb", "prob": 0.368445424898591, "text": "Vagabond", "index": 0, "poolNo": 95.47532695108161, "userId": "zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 163.65484674386857, "textFts": "'vagabond':1", "contractId": "e31tqfvu1q", "createdTime": 1718713346985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.131554575101409, "month": -0.131554575101409}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.131554575101409, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, 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"probChangeWeek": 0.03720285593761752, "totalLiquidity": 125.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.03720285593761752}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668962116383 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719109735755 | 1718812803217 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | utrhkfsii3 | {"NO": 40.466990787461384, "YES": 247.1149894125185} | 0.14071462599750265 | will-humans-rent-their-bodies-out-t | 150 | Will humans rent their bodies out to AI? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718714757550 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will artificial intelligences be willing to pay for real-time nervous system input to experience the physical world through human bodies, and will humans let them do it?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1.) Fat man at an all-you-can-eat buffet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2.) Fashion model wearing a new dress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3.) Surfboarder riding epic wave.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4.) Playing frisbee with a dog in the park.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.3592853740024974} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.885010587481498, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Slackhammer | 1720016340108 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718735652831 | 1718965321427 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nwyld8dlv8 | how-many-members-will-the-manifold | 7001.878755590268 | How Many Members will the Manifold Community on Twitter (X) Have After One Week? | 1719261653992 | tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | pp3c10u8b5 | public | 1718715538797 | Jake Lowery | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold created a community group on Twitter (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/i/communities/1802848512008483257", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/i/communities/1802848512008483257", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), which has grown enough to send a similar question to very high probability rather quickly (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-manifold-twitter-community", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-manifold-twitter-community", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve based on the number of members listed on the Twitter community at 5pm on June 24th, approximately one week after the community group was first created.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.43073303055563, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719261653992 | 1000 | JakeLowery | 1719261653992 | 0 | 20 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pp3c10u8b5", "prob": 0.9839217732406461, "text": "Less Than 200", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2258.242558806262, "userId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.901852287021256, "textFts": "'200':3 'less':1", "contractId": "nwyld8dlv8", "resolverId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "createdTime": 1718715538797, "probChanges": {"day": 0.27392177324064626, "week": 0.7339217732406461, "month": 0.7339217732406461}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.27392177324064626, "probChangeWeek": 0.7339217732406461, "resolutionTime": 1719261653992, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.7339217732406461}, {"id": "tj7xi0ztq7", "prob": 0.007315222935410612, "text": "200-399", "index": 1, "poolNo": 24.780923043178063, "userId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3362.801828976816, "textFts": "'-399':2 '200':1", "contractId": "nwyld8dlv8", "resolverId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "createdTime": 1718715538797, "probChanges": {"day": -0.20683807161393072, "week": -0.24268477706458938, "month": -0.24268477706458938}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.20683807161393072, "probChangeWeek": -0.24268477706458938, "resolutionTime": 1719261653992, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24268477706458938}, {"id": "p4qkg56iqk", "prob": 0.004381213634325565, "text": "400-799", "index": 2, "poolNo": 19.149615172037784, "userId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4351.697545077347, "textFts": "'-799':2 '400':1", "contractId": "nwyld8dlv8", "resolverId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "createdTime": 1718715538797, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03353516622028058, "week": -0.24561878636567444, "month": -0.24561878636567444}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03353516622028058, "probChangeWeek": -0.24561878636567444, "resolutionTime": 1719261653992, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24561878636567444}, {"id": "dfa7vnwmry", "prob": 0.004381790189617707, "text": "800 or More", "index": 3, "poolNo": 19.150880693183353, "userId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4351.409977870925, "textFts": "'800':1", "contractId": "nwyld8dlv8", "resolverId": "tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2", "createdTime": 1718715538797, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03354853540643495, "week": -0.2456182098103823, "month": -0.2456182098103823}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03354853540643495, "probChangeWeek": -0.2456182098103823, "resolutionTime": 1719261653992, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.2456182098103823}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707851169509 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719260222897 | 1719167314590 | {"pp3c10u8b5": 100} | tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ylphwnxntl | will-biden-or-trump-die-from-natura | 94 | Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term? | 1863557940000 | ZDGUp9IAFdYBdFSWTjSsbaSUTBG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718715632453 | Sander Van den Eynden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old. This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes. The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already. What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4621569252003437, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SanderVandenEynden | 1719134177297 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKjlppCNiSaEIjpM1LzIvEiHlUCOTawFg14BYSNQT2oTgo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yul94lj9a0", "prob": 0.26506102387391667, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.02737031333463, "userId": "ZDGUp9IAFdYBdFSWTjSsbaSUTBG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.25737398621936, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "ylphwnxntl", "createdTime": 1718715632453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.29638434003851544, "month": -0.29638434003851544}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.29638434003851544, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.29638434003851544}, {"id": "nbtmbk2pea", "prob": 0.3267555442074861, "text": "Joe Biden", "index": 1, "poolNo": 34.8333380151302, "userId": "ZDGUp9IAFdYBdFSWTjSsbaSUTBG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.77032528189231, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "ylphwnxntl", "createdTime": 1718715632453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.23440660263176327, "month": -0.23440660263176327}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.23440660263176327, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.23440660263176327}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706487092669 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719134174241 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xeujyo25bh | 2024-recap | 1419.709647642591 | 2024 Recap | 1735685940000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718715843829 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.050742960318146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | KongoLandwalker | 1719069579936 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6ypxmd7ray", "prob": 0.2846625053022027, "text": "ChatGPT 4o", "index": 0, "poolNo": 70.0917865124663, "userId": 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0.49999999999999967 | 3bual7owjg | {"NO": 292.8214859674492, "YES": 34.1504994654375} | 0.8955552738861563 | will-i-ever-meet-lion-in-person | 432.1052469126982 | Will I meet @Lion in person in 2024? | 1735685940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718720621189 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "label": "Lion"}}, {"text": " offered to meet me in the comment section of my \"Will I meet new people in 2024\" market. The market was already resolved with YES, so I am wondering whether or not the offer still stands. I already wrote him a message. We live a couple of hours away from each other.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If we meet up in 2024 this market will be resolved with YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market, but ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "label": "Lion"}}, {"text": " may do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/redcat/will-i-meet-new-people-in-2024", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3955552738861563} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.270005798104847, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719504228113 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719173447648 | 1719504226601 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ct2vtw2uqw | {"NO": 91.17673204000674, "YES": 109.67710485184068} | 0.45394568234761745 | will-ula-have-reused-engines-by-the | 10 | Will ULA have reused engines by the end of 2030? | 1925074740000 | rVZerTHa88MIgJAwSucSrjhgOBi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718720696755 | Jakob Brünker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ULA has previously suggested that a future version of the Vulcan rocket may reuse the engine section by separating it from the first stage and recovering it on the ground. They call this \"SMART reuse\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In 2023, Tory Bruno, the CEO of ULA, said", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "> In terms of our engine recovery, that is going to happen within a handful of years. I don't want to say exactly when because it's part of the contract we have with one of our customers at this time, and we're not releasing the details of that. But it will take a couple of years to actually be reusing the engine.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/after-vulcan-comes-online-ula-plans-to-dramatically-increase-launch-cadence/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/after-vulcan-comes-online-ula-plans-to-dramatically-increase-launch-cadence/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve YES iff they launch a rocket that uses at least one engine that has previously been fired in flight to achieve earth orbit by the end of 2030. This includes but is not limited to SMART reuse. E.g. SpaceX-style stage recovery would also qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.022464159108867454, "week": -0.022464159108867454, "month": -0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32289514815931325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5 | 100 | JakobBrunker | 1720246105552 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2GkJWwqaUfMSv0UTeln6RHsj98qSLaKzSVSioc=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669584290546 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720246102461 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999998 | wua2o670j8 | {"NO": 100.5037815259214, "YES": 9949.874371066202} | 0.010000000000000009 | will-the-pope-announce-the-second-c | 12487.247345669053 | Will the pope announce the second coming of Jesus Christ within the next 30 days ? | 1721339940000 | 55k7cuWjp1cyCGTfJ8NNMwyde882 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.868179739934998 | False | basic | public | 1718723699398 | -Ūfoleëp - | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The second coming of Jesus Christ is a central belief in Christianity, prophesied in the Bible to signify the end of the world and the final judgment. Christians believe that Jesus will return to Earth to fulfill God's plan for humanity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " The pope, as the head of the Roman Catholic Church, wields significant spiritual influence and authority. An announcement from the pope regarding the imminent return of Jesus would have enormous religious, social, and global implications.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question prompts to consider several factors: the theological foundations of Christian eschatology, the historical context of papal declarations, and the current state of world affairs challenging us to think about how such an announcement would be received by the global community, both within and outside the Christian faith. Would people react with belief, skepticism, or indifference? How would governments, other religious leaders, and media respond?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The scenario also raises questions about the role of the pope in interpreting and conveying divine messages. Historically, the Catholic Church has been cautious about making definitive statements regarding prophetic events, but why couldn't an imam announce it for example ?!. Therefore, contemplating this question encourages a deeper following and observation of religious prophecy in a stumbled modern world, the responsibilities of religious leaders, and the potential impact of such a momentous declaration on modern society.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": -0.49} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 56.174590684686, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ufoleep | 1719889672306 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKYqvwXFEYNNOS-XsqDDY5T6dSIrpm4REpeRpGgOmmIKA=s96-c | 39 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705414396796 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719889669055 | 1718730379946 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | zt3lxjtje7 | {"NO": 854.6020383572974, "YES": 1170.1352853337287} | 0.4220804488354012 | will-the-bilt-mastercard-remain-sta | 415 | Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030? | 1893571140000 | U63xexgO2Cebw3ZnyRHJ9ssHfui2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574940537169216 | False | basic | public | 1718726965063 | Eliot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bilt Mastercard is a card that allows users to earn cashback on rent payments, among other categories. The WSJ recently reported that this cashback was actually being bankrolled by Wells Fargo, who is reportedly losing tens of millions of dollars per month. Bilt’s contract with Wells Fargo ends in 2029.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if the Bilt Mastercard either 1) ceases to exist 2) significantly changes their core business model (for example stops offering rent payments) or 3) significantly alters their services such that a significant portion of their users leave (for example charging a $1k annual fee). I’m also open to hearing other arguments as to why the market may need to resolve NO. Otherwise resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not trade on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07791955116459881} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.34701890900607, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | eliot | 1720054102809 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDdlMXLAUeGjbpftcJiAgOHaluXWk-aT2uLji8EylC6WiZ=s96-c | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690865164585 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719488817503 | 1720054101032 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for trading on Thursday, June 27th, at 10PM PT. It will resolve when the actuals are posted, typically between Monday & Wednesday.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews). 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0.5 | xa0s563jff | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-are-the-key-elements-of-a-succ | 0 | What are the key elements of a successful fashion portfolio? | 1735669740000 | T1KWxbl5WmeXb4ezMjkjWSgrLtG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718728516504 | Shubham Sharma | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creating a successful fashion portfolio is crucial for designers seeking to showcase their talents and secure opportunities in the competitive fashion industry. A well-curated portfolio not only highlights one's skills but also communicates a unique creative vision. Here are the key elements that contribute to an outstanding fashion portfolio:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. Introduction and Biography: Begin with a succinct introduction and biography. This section should provide a brief overview of who you are, your background, education, and key achievements. It sets the tone for the portfolio and gives context to your work. Include a professional photograph and contact information to create a personal connection with the viewer. Visit - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fashion Designing Classes in Pune", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sevenmentor.com/fashion-designing-course-in-pune.php", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. Concept and Inspiration: Showcase the inspiration behind your designs. This can include mood boards, sketches, and written explanations of your creative process. This section helps the viewer understand your sources of inspiration, whether they are cultural, historical, or personal, and how these elements influence your work.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. Technical Skills and Expertise: Demonstrate your technical proficiency. Include detailed images of your best work, focusing on craftsmanship and technical skills such as pattern-making, draping, sewing, and fabric manipulation. Close-up shots of seams, finishes, and construction details are essential to highlight your abilities.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4. Design Diversity: Display a range of work to show versatility. Include different types of garments such as evening wear, casual wear, and experimental pieces. This variety illustrates your ability to adapt to different styles and markets, showcasing a broad skill set.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5. Cohesive Collections: Present full collections to exhibit your ability to create cohesive and thematic designs. A well-rounded collection demonstrates your understanding of how to develop a series of garments that tell a story or revolve around a central theme. Include sketches, fabric swatches, and final pieces to show the development process.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6. Editorial and Lookbook Photography: Incorporate professional photoshoots of your designs. High-quality editorial and lookbook images can bring your garments to life, showing how they look when worn and styled. These images should be visually appealing and capture the essence of your brand identity. Visit - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fashion Designing Course in Pune", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sevenmentor.com/fashion-designing-course-in-pune.php", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7. Runway and Event Documentation: If you have participated in fashion shows or exhibitions, include photographs and videos from these events. This not only shows your work in a professional setting but also highlights your experience in the industry and your ability to present your work to a broader audience.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8. Sketches and Illustrations: Include hand-drawn sketches and digital illustrations. These demonstrate your design process and ability to visualize ideas before they are produced. It gives insight into your creative thinking and artistic skills.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9. Collaborations and Projects: Highlight any collaborations or special projects. Working with other designers, and brands, or on unique projects can show your ability to work in a team, adapt to different environments, and handle various creative challenges.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10. Client and Industry Testimonials: If available, include testimonials from clients, mentors, or industry professionals. Positive feedback from respected figures can add credibility to your work and give potential employers or clients confidence in your abilities.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11. Digital Presentation: Ensure your portfolio is digitally accessible. A professional website or a PDF version of your portfolio can reach a wider audience. 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8zafjh1nbj | will-oregon-voters-pass-or-fail-ip1 | 596.4647804974102 | Will Oregon voters pass or fail IP-17 (Oregon Rebate) and by what margin? | 1730865600000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718729392619 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IP17 is a voter initiative that proposes creating an annual rebate for every Oregonian (including children). The rebate would be funded by increasing the minimum tax rate for Oregon corporations with $25 million+ in sales from less than 1% to 3%. The taxed amount would be made availyas either a tax credit or a cash payment and be evenly divided among all Oregon residents who have resided in Oregon for at least 200 days provided the amount is greater than $25. (If the amount is less then $25/residents, the taxes amount is redistributed to social programs). The rebate would not be taxable, means-tested, or affect eligibility for income-based benefits. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Supporters of the measure estimate that the rebate amount would be ~$750 / resident the first year. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[0] O", "type": "text"}, {"text": "regon Rebate Website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oregonrebate.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[1] ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "IP17 Full Text", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sos.oregon.gov/admin/Documents/irr/2024/017text.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/or-24?r=THVrYXNEYXk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to one answer based on", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ballot measure passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The margin by which it passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ballot measure is withdrawn", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[0] ORS 254.065 (2)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oregon.public.law/statutes/ors_254.065", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Anthem/will-oregon-voters-approve-ranked-c", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5352195026042006, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719180060837 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7xwjqatiki", "prob": 0.09999999999999946, "text": "Pass; 90 - 100%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.55555555555538, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000014, "textFts": "'100':3 '90':2 'pass':1", "contractId": "8zafjh1nbj", "createdTime": 1718729392619, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0034448164537334847, "week": 0.006107260995212804, "month": 0.006107260995212804}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0034448164537334847, "probChangeWeek": 0.006107260995212804, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.006107260995212804}, {"id": "84rref9x6h", "prob": 0.09999999999999946, "text": "Pass; 80 - 89%", "index": 1, "poolNo": 55.55555555555538, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000014, "textFts": "'80':2 '89':3 'pass':1", "contractId": "8zafjh1nbj", "createdTime": 1718729392619, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0034448164537334847, "week": 0.006107260995212804, "month": 0.006107260995212804}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0034448164537334847, "probChangeWeek": 0.006107260995212804, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.006107260995212804}, {"id": "ovoe6bxdsb", "prob": 0.09999999999999946, "text": "Pass; 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0.4999999999999991 | 1qqeix4com | {"NO": 994.987437106619, "YES": 10.050378152591975} | 1 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company | 899.8942922662056 | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at least one time before the end of 2024? | 1718734137925 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718729481322 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.906855159586549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718734137925 | 100 | strutheo | 1718734137925 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718734042307 | 1718734134564 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.499999999999999 | s04g59tqa1 | {"NO": 994.9874371066196, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-4os09hif3s | 1006.5614925623123 | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at least one time before the end of Juneteenth 2025? | 1718734143783 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718729528634 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.911300757165334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718734143783 | 100 | strutheo | 1718734143783 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718733980339 | 1718734133800 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xuiu84aofl | what-is-the-fairest-rule-about-claw | 0 | What is the FAIREST rule about clawing back FTX money from the charities that the FTX Future Fund gave to? | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718730735862 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JonathanRay | 1718731125368 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718731124407 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8345534048137869 | 3ont4nhj91 | {"NO": 11633.70596670196, "YES": 592.7604073833245} | 1 | will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against | 12526.90593934559 | Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana? | 1719415602034 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718731238117 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Domer wins the bet, even if Martin does not pay up.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market on the payment actually occurring if Shkreli loses:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4p4z5emli8", "label": "/strutheo/will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlnbnWMJ03a.png?alt=media&token=1ab46351-938f-44f9-bd14-f09774cef917", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.043191452056746, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719415602034 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719534934305 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719414627221 | 1719534932834 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4715130409420851 | 4p4z5emli8 | {"NO": 397.563352839014, "YES": 2756.106114361155} | 0.11402296000909919 | will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000 | 15309.906428202507 | Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.788219755011045 | False | basic | public | 1718731484986 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES Domer must win the bet AND Martin must agree to pay it, actually send the money, and have this confirmed by Domer. Otherwise resolves NO. Can be approximate value as judged by me, to account for conversions / transaction fees. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market just about Domer winning, even if Shkreli does not pay up:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3ont4nhj91", "label": "/strutheo/will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlnbnWMJ03a.png?alt=media&token=1ab46351-938f-44f9-bd14-f09774cef917", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4NCJd3nAv1.png?alt=media&token=ca103ae4-e230-4cd2-b5b0-a12f2c232f54", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.23414155731953867, "month": -0.3859770399909008} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 311.6242964230487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719971034889 | 0 | 47 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719971031756 | 1719613737009 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | j6aj5pdbw2 | {"NO": 92.06524044533649, "YES": 10861.86268740325} | 0 | uk-general-election-2024-reform-uk | 29208.49251580459 | UK General Election 2024 - Reform UK to win 7 or more seats | 1720196215701 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8449812470238 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718731494015 | vVv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - Reform get 7 or more seats in the up coming UK General Election", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO - Reform get 6 or less seats in the up coming UK general election", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.026885048872124902, "week": -0.317496931195597, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 479.80172067576956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3352.074942060421 | 1720196215701 | 1000 | vVv | 1720196215701 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | 50 | 29 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692730904780 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720195720544 | 1720196204390 | 0.01 | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3dtm85w5xp | {"NO": 168.46768621714074, "YES": 59.35856439027029} | 0.739456870171837 | will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor | 80 | Will we get synthetic kidneys before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718732958587 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic kidneys have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic kidney is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. This definition includes, but is not limited to, biological kidneys grown on scaffolds from the patient's stem cells, mechanical kidneys that do not contain biological cells and synthetic kidneys that have both biological and mechanical components.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Successful implantation is defined as the organ continuing to operate for at least 12 months subsequent to the operation. If multiple operations are required, then this clock starts at the final operation. A healthy threshold of operation is not defined for this question, only that the transplant is still considered functional and the clinicians do not consider it appropriate to remove it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These synthetic organs must have been completely implanted into the human, and cannot have significant components located outside of the patient's body. However, these devices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " allowed to have external ports such as electrical sockets and tubes for fluids. The devices must be able to operate autonomously for a period of at least 12 hours without being connected to these external ports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Various forms of maintenance over the 12 month duration are permitted, provided the synthetic kidneys are not removed from the patient's body during these operations. Removing and replacing components of the organs is permitted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0802412195778659, "month": 0.23945687017183703} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.085730544319049, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719834636161 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719834633085 | 1718735799189 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | toi4wk169h | {"NO": 121.4584164923794, "YES": 82.33270520719674} | 0.5959946413731921 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-7kj1eys2yc | 332.03142528336946 | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on Juneteenth 2025? | 1749527940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718734182747 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.09599464137319214} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.1625337509582305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719000452445 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719000449396 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49995046878558685 | 2k8v6hw8pi | {"NO": 8956.87621432987, "YES": 11164.848783577514} | 0.4450856759566228 | will-tesla-prevail-in-its-suit-agai | 1886.614365729806 | Will Tesla prevail in its suit against Matthews International over battery trade secrets? | 1781765940000 | Ljs38fqJp1djJPchj4w0Yo86yX63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7320754491580246 | False | plus | public | 1718734533466 | Hacking | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On 17 Jun 2024, Reuters reported that Tesla has filed suit against former battery supplied Matthews International, alleging misuse of battery manufacture trade secrets that had been supplied to Matthews by Tesla. Specific allegations include selling products made with Tesla battery technology to competitors, and filing patents based on Tesla's technology. Tesla is claiming at least $1 billion USD in damages. Matthews denies all wrongdoing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sues-ex-supplier-matthews-over-ev-battery-trade-secrets-2024-06-17/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sues-ex-supplier-matthews-over-ev-battery-trade-secrets-2024-06-17/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if Tesla wins in court, or receives in a settlement, at least two of the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$50,000,000 USD or equivalent", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A court order forbidding Matthews using dry-electrode coating battery technology, or similar battery technology that Tesla claims they invented and shared with Matthews, without licensing it from Tesla", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Transfer of patents/patent filings or other intellectual property related to the case from Matthews to Tesla on account of Tesla claiming ownership of the IP", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other outcomes widely described in the media as a victory for Tesla in the suit.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves No if the case is thrown out, the suit is dropped by Tesla without a settlement, ends in a settlement or court decision (even a nominal victory) not including at least two of the above, or is decided in Matthews' favor. A successful countersuit by Matthews does not guarantee a resolution of No; resolution of this market depends entirely on whether Tesla prevails on their claims.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves N/A if the suit ends in a settlement for undisclosed terms, and is not possible to determine whether the conditions are met. This market will remain open until the suit ends.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01070321941470298, "month": -0.054914324043377205} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.308772504004864, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SeekingEternity | 1719691310327 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680405741291 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719691307253 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | bx2v412mth | {"NO": 68.56235599472441, "YES": 145.85263086305642} | 0.3197647561837694 | will-egan-bernal-win-another-grand | 110 | Will Egan Bernal win another Grand Tour in his career? | 2052255540000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718736059009 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved if Egan Bernal wins a General Classement ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after market creation (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " in a Grand Tour or retires. The Giro d'Italia, the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana are classified, under normal circumstances, as Grand Tours with 21 or 20 stages. For special occasions like a new GT or a shortened GT I will use my best judgement and clearify it in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "J89Vyo5ygP9JWhm8te1K", "label": "/Lion/will-geraint-thomas-win-another-gra"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kwW3GvrmEdaB5fdBR6nf", "label": "/Lion/will-sepp-kuss-win-another-grand-to"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18023524381623057} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.43424016139381, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Lion | 1719501040870 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719501037811 | 1719042142595 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | r3c29h8106 | {"NO": 1327.0416509326567, "YES": 753.5558505621823} | 0.6378175740282407 | will-thailand-formally-join-brics-i | 1554.112580295693 | Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.556870189272699 | False | basic | public | 1718736171305 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Thai foreign minister announced a formal request to join BRICS in June 2024 at a meeting with Russia's Sergei Lavrov.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will this membership become official in 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US or allies could put pressure on Thailand not to join what is increasingly seen as a pro-Russian, anti-US group.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fx51vUkTt4I.38?alt=media&token=41bb519a-3bf2-46b4-acad-98264ba7720d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/china/thailand-announces-plans-to-join-brics-nizhny-novgorod-summit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/china/thailand-announces-plans-to-join-brics-nizhny-novgorod-summit", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolve YES if Thailand officially joins BRICS, whether or not it is included in the acronym. It will resolve NO otherwise or if this is not confirmed in official media reports before the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.13781757402824069} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.56038050251091, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719187802503 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719187799215 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | s1b6tvcpv9 | {"NO": 788.4338574705096, "YES": 1268.3372112002492} | 0.3833357389551649 | will-malaysia-or-another-country-jo | 527 | Will Malaysia OR another country join BRICS in 2024, after Thailand's announcement? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579127296740936 | False | basic | public | 1718736452199 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the BRICS meeting in June 2024, Thailand announced its intention to join BRICS.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will Malaysia OR another country (not Thailand) join BRICS in 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/china/malaysia-to-formally-apply-brics-membership-revisits-gold-dinar-reserve-currency", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/china/malaysia-to-formally-apply-brics-membership-revisits-gold-dinar-reserve-currency", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiScs-u3dLr.43?alt=media&token=9b996d9b-28cc-4ad5-ac1e-9d67b647abf3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if any country official ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "joins ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "BRICS (not announces it will join). Current members don't count, and neither does Thailand, which already indicated its intent to join. Malaysia will count, as it has expressed interested but not officially joined or expressed official intent to join. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11666426104483513} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.372048500039426, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719238375879 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719238372773 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 2niwwo907w | {"NO": 1511.3639190749893, "YES": 661.6540115712419} | 0.6955137818975692 | if-sb-1047-passes-with-the-third-pa | 590 | If SB 1047 passes with the third party auditing requirement, will there be a third party audit available under $500k? | 1861937940000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.597015215698097 | False | basic | public | 1718738613734 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at the end of 2028, there is at least one model evaluation service that is credentialed in California, or otherwise permitted under their law, that charges less than $500k to test a model.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if there is no such service AND such a service is required for at least one existing model, or would be if one existing model was released for the first time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to my best estimate of fair market price (%) correcting for any manipulations, if no such bill or requirement has passed and it is September 1, 2025 or later, or the chance such a bill will pass by then is clearly under 5% (in which case please ping me for resolution). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.014116603548485429, "month": 0.19551378189756918} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.131898567209234, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719978765443 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719978761894 | 1718758435303 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5sou70b2mm | if-biden-and-trump-shake-hands-at-t | 3688.934851158449 | If Biden and Trump shake hands at the June debate, how long will their handshake be? | 1719471540000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1718740099595 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll measure the time from the first touch of their hands to the moment they release. If they shake hands multiple times, only the duration of the first handshake will count. Whether they touch each other's shoulders or their bodies do something else doesn't matter. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the timing is difficult for me to judge precisely and falls between two options, I will resolve 50% chance to each option. 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The question will clear one day after that on December 1st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the proposal would lift all parking mandates; Answer #1 will resolve if it passes without modification.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answer #2 resolves if parking reform only occurs within the proposal's \"Greater Transit Zone\", referring to areas within 1/2 mile of mass transit. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answer #3 resolves if some type of parking mandate relief occurs, but not in a manner consistent with #1 or #2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answer #4 resolves if no parking mandate relief occurs at all. 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0.5 | v1pucjhnfz | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | will-jake-paul-beat-mike-perry | 5 | Will Jake Paul beat Mike Perry? | 1736602140000 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718748933927 | Tripping | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.instagram.com/p/C8XO7GzOfsD/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.instagram.com/p/C8XO7GzOfsD/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3jEtAPlr6c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3jEtAPlr6c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paul wins = yes resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Draw = 50-50 resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Perry wins = no resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fight doesn't happen by the end of 2024 = no resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No Contest = no resolution", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Tripping | 1718905812429 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669033757222 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718905809365 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 212ns1nqtz | {"NO": 54.65357250000211, "YES": 182.97065576087667} | 0.22999999999999995 | will-latvia-win-the-mens-3x3-basket | 97.8444784766755 | Will Latvia win the Mens 3x3 basketball gold medal in Paris 2024 Olympics? | 1722891540000 | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718749591556 | Scipio Fabius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I made this market in part for myself. I will deliberately put up limit orders here that are negative EV for myself, relative to implied odds offered by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "bookies (currently 16.67%)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/basketball/olympic-basketball-mens/mens-3x3-gold-medal-winner", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Feel free to take me up on these bets. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolution is as per the market question. If Latvia wins - YES, if not - NO. Resolves early if its clear Latvia can't win the gold medal. Resolution source - official Olympic reporting.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.27} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1185731602289013, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ScipioFabius | 1719410479370 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678926985817 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719410476329 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3pgl26r5lo | how-many-monthly-active-users-will-30xb5limua | 293.3481149024507 | How many monthly active users will X (formerly Twitter) have by August 1, 2024? | 1722571140000 | m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718750063554 | Jeff Berman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.651885097551952, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JeffBerman | 1718909593070 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJs_c1tZ1T6PMCtwsXu9NiUuQCqnjN1hMqXJXkPgADYqnQ=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "n1btzk2e36", "prob": 0.16666666666666638, "text": "Fewer than 550 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.9999999999999, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000005, "textFts": "'550':3 'fewer':1 'million':4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -2.7755575615628914e-16}, {"id": "q1pphf4sou", "prob": 0.16666666666666652, "text": "550 million - 575 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 99.99999999999993, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000002, "textFts": "'550':1 '575':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, {"id": "n6cnjkssfa", "prob": 0.16666666666666652, "text": "575 million - 600 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 99.99999999999993, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000002, "textFts": "'575':1 '600':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, {"id": "xdbosqtpl8", "prob": 0.16666666666666652, "text": "600 million - 625 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 99.99999999999993, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500.0000000000002, "textFts": "'600':1 '625':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -1.3877787807814457e-16}, {"id": "dupeelr6x7", "prob": 0.16666666666666718, "text": "625 million - 650 million", "index": 4, "poolNo": 100.00000000000018, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.999999999999, "textFts": "'625':1 '650':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 5.273559366969494e-16, "month": 5.273559366969494e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 5.273559366969494e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 5.273559366969494e-16}, {"id": "fmoyvpn0at", "prob": 0.16666666666666693, "text": "More than 650 million", "index": 5, "poolNo": 100.00000000000009, "userId": "m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.99999999999943, "textFts": "'650':3 'million':4", "contractId": "3pgl26r5lo", "createdTime": 1718750063554, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 2.7755575615628914e-16}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707850952840 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718761580350 | 1718909591760 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qt45ivrs8u | {"NO": 50.95038810447993, "YES": 196.26935872389797} | 0.20609352108045856 | will-rfk-jr-get-more-votes-than-tru | 140.92209064579907 | Will RFK Jr. get more votes than Trump in DC? | 1731477540000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718750949755 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If more votes are counted for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. than for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the District of Columbia, resolves YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st place winner of DC is not relevant to this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the unlikely event of a tie, resolves to 50%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Write-in votes for either candidate may be counted (if not on ballot).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market's rules are the same even if either candidate suspends his campaign, is not eligible for the election, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29390647891954147} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.80855063030293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | thepurplebull | 1718885660727 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718885657589 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xvxcnh4kxi | {"NO": 169.62665679217648, "YES": 58.95299824397189} | 0.7420899150685618 | will-near-reach-11-in-2024 | 130 | Will NEAR reach $11 in 2024? | 1735707540000 | vJc2cW0lpWST6eADzD0dPo2zJRo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.471358655072436 | False | play | public | 1718753924480 | XVII | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if NEAR reaches $11 according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CoinMarketCap.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://CoinMarketCap.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in 2024. Currently under $5", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2420899150685618} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7075196322565653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | XVII | 1719003406772 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695514337326 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719003403682 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | a8vs1in69i | {"NO": 751.8054700505147, "YES": 1330.131316991893} | 0.3611086920263926 | will-bittensor-tao-reach-an-alltime | 340 | Will Bittensor (TAO) reach an all-time high again in 2024? | 1735707540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.583013265882645 | False | basic | public | 1718753967831 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all-time high on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (in expandable “Show Historical Price” section) is above its previous high of $757.60 from March 7th, 2024 before January 1st, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.13889130797360738} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.868683008106824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dglid | 1718877722509 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718877719455 | 1718754380941 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vzh5vdx2p2 | {"NO": 133.98825376616296, "YES": 74.63340792135452} | 0.6422547528494732 | are-there-any-manifolders-active-on | 35 | Are there any Manifolders active on Bittensor? | 1735707540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718754220909 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I am provided compelling evidence prior to 2025 that a Manifold user is also active in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Bittensor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.bittensor.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " AI crypto/blockchain project. “Active” is defined per my judgment.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1422547528494732} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.011746233837043, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | dglid | 1718792704641 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718779772325 | 1718792510904 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | eiqmzrxzp | {"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996} | 0.5460535652294758 | will-season-seven-of-the-chosen-pre | 10 | Will season seven of "The Chosen" premiere in movie theaters or on streaming before January 1, 2028 | 1830401940000 | G8Ba5NAhxWcLa5PsocoKMsqUolc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718754409629 | Joel Conley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoelConley | 1718779770563 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKbhiOO9yKYeiGhm3ApPt2HcKYj-JN8AAR8tua5NL0foj4=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698020410946 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718779767511 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wfj5m5tian | when-will-1-usd-be-worth-less-than | 0 | When will 1 USD be worth less than 140 JPY? | 1830351540000 | Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718756237645 | Samuel Ericsson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to \"Far Future/Never\" on 1/1/2028, if 1 USD never dips before 140 JPY before then.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelEricsson | 1718756237705 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKfk85x4jDIGZitriXgI5kTsOKn58xuCP_plTiNVEtD1zhWPA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zuxeftvkei", "prob": 0.2, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "wfj5m5tian", "createdTime": 1718756237645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "77ffnc4b6w", "prob": 0.2, "text": "2025", "index": 1, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'2025':1", "contractId": "wfj5m5tian", "createdTime": 1718756237645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fwsj0ivi82", "prob": 0.2, "text": "2026", "index": 2, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'2026':1", "contractId": "wfj5m5tian", "createdTime": 1718756237645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "r1mjh8gzx9", "prob": 0.2, "text": "2027", "index": 3, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'2027':1", "contractId": "wfj5m5tian", "createdTime": 1718756237645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "igi4rgzr2k", "prob": 0.2, "text": "Far future/never", "index": 4, "poolNo": 125, "userId": "Z9RbzxupmGQU8R6OxSWRCtlAMqD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'far':1 'future/never':2", "contractId": "wfj5m5tian", "createdTime": 1718756237645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716780772133 | 0 | 0.25 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | tr2nw3zet2 | {"NO": 969.6848482260227, "YES": 1031.2628910613973} | 0.48461278082722375 | before-2026-will-dl-systems-outperf | 3656 | Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it? | 1767340740000 | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.106984397447462 | False | basic | public | 1718757184575 | AdamK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before 2026, will experimental results be announced demonstrating a Deep Learning system that outperforms humans at something roughly like the following task?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A person spends less than one hour in an MRI machine visualizing pictures shown and described to them, and this is used to calibrate or funetune the DL system", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference pictures are then shown to the DL system, which must translate them into written or audio descriptions given to the person in the MRI machine, who tries to visualize them", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The reference pictures are then shown directly to the person, and brain activities from the description (including reconstructions of what they visualized) vs the picture are compared for their similarity.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In order for this market to resolve YES, the system must unambiguously outperform researchers or prepared humans at accurately conveying a visual scene, including in cases where the researcher gets up to an hour to practice with the tested person. If it is a clear common expectation that AI systems would outperform humans at this task if it were formally run, this market can also resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market attempts to evaluate the sophistication of multimodal models that can work between language, images, and human neural activations in the short term future.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to bet on this market because I believe the resolution criteria are sufficiently objective. If that impedes on peoples' willingness to bet, let me know and I may be willing to stop betting.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.015387219172776245} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.01331899801778, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AdamK | 1718958148186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687620319599 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718958148186 | 1718770071322 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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m4a2m8yezr | how-many-seats-will-the-ensemble-co | 2306.0135596387727 | How many seats will the Ensemble coalition have after the second round of voting in the French elections (July 7)? | 1720411140000 | A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718759833787 | TraderBoyTraderBoy1 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notes: If at any point the Ensemble! party changes its name or adds/subtracts parties to the coalition, I will use the final coalition after the second round of voting completes and will resolve the market immediately after election. If parties re-shuffle based on events occurring after the results, I will not use them. The heuristic I will use is Macron’s sanctioned party and coalition partner. Market resolves based on results after the second round.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.66388611111181, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 122.94687751295533 | 1000 | TraderBoyTraderBoy1 | 1720206723969 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTraderBoyTraderBoy1%2Fh9bqg1UCY7.41?alt=media&token=41233d1a-603a-46e7-8b15-600c164bfbd7 | 22 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "nmlmbeou78", "prob": 0.07858260328418053, "text": "Less than 50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 65.3010259185648, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 765.6847545144761, "textFts": "'50':3 'less':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0014567802209528719, "month": -0.09308825093905236}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0014567802209528719, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.09308825093905236}, {"id": "89sqwuyssh", "prob": 0.14324824867550146, "text": "50-69", "index": 1, "poolNo": 91.43283003203106, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 546.8495285827173, "textFts": "'-69':2 '50':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.12503735877096445, "month": -0.034407960353112305}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.12503735877096445, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.034407960353112305}, {"id": "rnk1wgcicl", "prob": 0.17556982053957246, "text": "70-89", "index": 2, "poolNo": 103.1889026649314, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 484.54822862451596, "textFts": "'-89':2 '70':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.08167257267209632, "month": -0.005178178496330704}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.08167257267209632, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.005178178496330704}, {"id": "fgfqh3w65h", "prob": 0.1884564544614373, "text": "90-109", "index": 3, "poolNo": 107.75429660404431, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 464.01861991388483, "textFts": "'-109':2 '90':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.060296657043764024, "month": 0.006487543367925258}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.060296657043764024, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.006487543367925258}, {"id": "0bn4juwrcd", "prob": 0.3400000000000001, "text": "110-129", "index": 4, "poolNo": 160.49166881048913, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 311.5426512203611, "textFts": "'-129':2 '110':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2745185568746814, "month": 0.22333333333333336}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2745185568746814, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.22333333333333336}, {"id": "2wv8zg8jkl", "prob": 0.07414287303930826, "text": "130 or more", "index": 5, "poolNo": 63.277268065271315, "userId": "A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 790.1731779637578, "textFts": "'130':1", "contractId": "m4a2m8yezr", "createdTime": 1718759833787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.006055188166903688, "month": -0.09714648691276305}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.006055188166903688, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.09714648691276305}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647751037805 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720206720889 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2sl9edpima | what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-x | 5676.8377210809285 | What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st | 1722436140000 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.57165836380713 | False | plus | public | 1718760142902 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own answers, try to keep them objective. 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npfnzc9kwl | how-many-seats-will-the-nfp-coaliti | 2927.7539945146787 | How many seats will the NFP coalition have after the second round of voting in the French elections (July 7)? | 1720411140000 | A2MIHvq7pacULTjO4S0w2TxFDJ92 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718760185779 | TraderBoyTraderBoy1 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notes: If at any point the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance changes its name or adds/subtracts parties to the coalition, I will use the final coalition after the second round of voting completes and will resolve the market immediately after election. If parties re-shuffle based on events occurring after the results, I will not use them. 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0.5 | u4mql0tnkj | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066196} | 0 | will-openai-or-jakub-pachocki-expli | 1202.7263505296592 | Will OpenAI or Jakub Pachocki explicitly put a statement out saying the $OpenAI scam isn't real within 24 hours? | 1718855940000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718761575930 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Chief Scientist at OpenAI's account was hacked (see below), posting a link to a fake OpenAI site encouraging users to buy fake $OpenAI tokens.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/merettm/status/1803223972743442604", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/merettm/status/1803223972743442604", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (was deleted as I was writing this post)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/merettm/status/1803223275071221798", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/merettm/status/1803223275071221798", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (still up currently)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fake website (currently up): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://launch-openai.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://launch-openai.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as yes if, within 24 hours from now (before this question closes):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI, Jakub Pachocki, or anyone in OpenAI leadership puts out a statement on their social media or website clarifying that the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "launch-openai.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://launch-openai.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " site, the $OpenAI token, or the original post, is not real or is a scam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as no if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Only a OpenAI employee, not in a leadership position, confirms it was a scam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-No comments are made.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Official comments are made, but greater than 24 hours from now.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.359464799689082, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718886872179 | 100 | SCS | 1718855940000 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718854693448 | 1718853813266 | 0.09 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4331500408520836 | 6yczpqovr5 | {"NO": 1947.1222198775417, "YES": 2062.9917481841126} | 0.41901573521717295 | will-there-be-at-least-3-players-on | 65 | Will there be at least 3 players on the leaderboard all named "Rationalussy" on diep.io by EOY 2026? | 1798736340000 | asfPYG3K8UPKNzLGZiz8pFvXvEG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.269409551698798 | False | basic | public | 1718763514073 | / | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I found a screenshot of the game ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "diep.io", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://diep.io", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " with 3 players named \"Rationalussy\" on the leaderboard with a score of >=65k in any FFA, Maze, 2 Teams, or 4 Teams server whose leaderboard has at least 8 players with a score of >=50k.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will try to inject into this market M$100 of liquidity daily.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -8.326672684688674e-16, "week": -8.326672684688674e-16, "month": -0.08098426478282694} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0082518158876717, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | khang2009 | 1718970081672 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709991419015 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718970078598 | 1718970046972 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | 6gnj9a6viu | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066198} | 0.010000000000000012 | will-noam-chomsky-be-dead-at-market | 899.7998061950241 | Will Noam Chomsky be dead at market close? | 1719903540000 | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718763525372 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumors of his death appear to be greatly exaggerated. Will he be confirmed to die/have died in the month of June?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.13766749533752967, "month": -0.49} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.812369088404081, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Arcmage7000 | 1719898198083 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 8 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719898194991 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ehdfk0g27a | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-me-iw8pzeqx79 | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Medic (TF2) into? | 1721447940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718776609405 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1718776609433 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v5b7wet01p | what-will-be-president-biden-538-di | 2187.8962148652145 | What will be President Biden 538 disapproval Rating Today? | 1718851415911 | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | xrk1rqnn1k | public | 1718776641289 | Crypto Singh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How unpopular is Joe Biden? let's find out,", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "538 calculates its approval rating by averaging polls from a variety of sources, weighted by their accuracy and methodology.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Order placement will close at 11:59 PM ET on June 19, 2024. 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0.4999999999999998 | sluv1h17mf | {"NO": 13.909177429423039, "YES": 718.9497761992984} | 0.018979337511743972 | will-anyone-ask-faire-if-she-made-h | 1074.8465492342668 | Will anyone ask Faire if she made her hat? | 1720076340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718777831977 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxLS51BAGXz.png?alt=media&token=0ada417a-88a3-4fd8-ad38-ea7f14170590", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "LIBQZGtqmrS5Qc8XuaJJ7KM2Olb2", "label": "FaireSouleReeves"}}, {"text": " embroidered a sun-with-sunglasses image on her hat. I've predicted that it looks so professionally done that it won't even occur to anyone that she might've made it herself. She disagrees and predicts that at least one person (during her 2-week-long trip to Costa Rica) will ask if she made it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We have made our own wager (her $10 to my $20) and this market is our way of recording it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -0.07517905618287973, "month": -0.48102066248825603} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.284662669750771, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | dreev | 1720004290126 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644799031473 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720004286765 | 1719091117354 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gj3p04s9fu | bitcoin-daily-closing-price-for-190 | 4008.4746843544385 | Bitcoin Daily closing price for 19-06-2024? | 1718834400000 | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | cnn6s10y36 | public | 1718779893072 | Crypto Singh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the daily closing price of bitcoin spot on 19-06-2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Order placement stops 2 hours before daily close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily closing of Binance spot market", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ( BTC-USDT )", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?ref=37754157", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "taken as reference.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 113.28921124208013, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718850768951 | 1000 | TheCryptoSingh | 1718834400000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8fn9_YAPMot_H5agPLIqeIs6nYw-FmfXMpXmxintfsbdcWL9=s96-c | 18 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "g5wba1e2lj", "prob": 0.026383253238338414, "text": "$66,000 or above", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.80909649261365, "userId": "kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1358.3598828630134, "textFts": "'000':2 '66':1", "contractId": "gj3p04s9fu", "resolverId": "kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22", "createdTime": 1718779893072, 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1ejkiwx04d | when-will-the-tmuf-cheated-records | 0 | When will the TMUF Cheated Records Cleansweep project finish? | 1798847940000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718785681620 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/16IkaiRCbScI8qOypCGWN9b-Iui2b-kbmWgC6zl6cPaE/htmlview#gid=1773303278", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/16IkaiRCbScI8qOypCGWN9b-Iui2b-kbmWgC6zl6cPaE/htmlview#gid=1773303278", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Final three remaining times:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BayB1: 19.10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SnowA2: 9.48", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SnowB1: 17.81", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by TMX replay upload date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1719070602515 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "blnh990qbd", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2024-11-01", "index": 0, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':4 '-11':3 '2024':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ov8ns6062l", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2025-01-01", "index": 1, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':3,4 '2025':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7edx5hfx6g", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2025-04-01", "index": 2, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':4 '-04':3 '2025':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "pwipxry9dw", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2025-08-01", "index": 3, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':4 '-08':3 '2025':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "vfxrnfmecj", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2026-01-01", "index": 4, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':3,4 '2026':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ogk2w73m6k", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2026-06-01", "index": 5, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':4 '-06':3 '2026':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "deyme6rrtz", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Before 2027-01-01", "index": 6, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'-01':3,4 '2027':2", "contractId": "1ejkiwx04d", "createdTime": 1718785681620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 142.85714285714286, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | 0.25 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | bz4j555zi1 | {"NO": 1987.3578489305146, "YES": 2012.7225714043277} | 0.496829473434476 | will-leonarda-jonie-be-banned-from | 115 | Will Leonarda Jonie be banned from X OR Instagram OR YouTube before the 2024 American Election? | 1730825940000 | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.133671864945173 | False | basic | public | 1718786155485 | Timothy Bandors | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leonarda Jonie has recently blown up on twitter. She seems to be pushing the bounds of what is allowed on X. Below is just one example tweet, but she has been regularly making edgy tweets for a little while. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FgdooR1z6tP.png?alt=media&token=036bf74e-5372-41f7-8c51-0f4b6c9adc35", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any following accounts are permanently suspended before November 5th 2024. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/Leonarda_Jonie", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Leonarda_Jonie", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.instagram.com/leonarda.jonie/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.instagram.com/leonarda.jonie/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@LeonardaisFunny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@LeonardaisFunny", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A temp suspension does not count. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0031705265655245785} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8863613428149737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | TimothyBandors | 1718851062989 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690819422060 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718834272225 | 1718851061960 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48128578199544475 | d5ynd1o5rs | {"NO": 2600.7062218297706, "YES": 1210.4533211677901} | 0.6659438444471513 | oakland-mayor-sheng-thao-is-recalle | 1571.9446344705177 | Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao is recalled | 1731052740000 | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.351571120722826 | False | basic | public | 1718786913619 | Mike Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oakland, California, USA Mayor Sheng Thao faces a recall election (date to be determined, possibly 2024-11-07) after a campaign submitted enough voter signatures to trigger the election. This market resolves to yes if Thao is recalled at the election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the recall election triggered by this recall petition does not happen by 2025-11-30 (canceled, resigned) then this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.16594384444715127} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.70712705573164, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1800 | MikeChenSF | 1719371209892 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661144467248 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719371206833 | 1719254486532 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 86d6g951ge | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-snowa2-be-the-final-map-in-the | 0 | Will SnowA2 be the final map in the TMUF Cheated Records Cleansweep project? | 64092297540000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718787777247 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/16IkaiRCbScI8qOypCGWN9b-Iui2b-kbmWgC6zl6cPaE/htmlview#gid=1773303278", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/16IkaiRCbScI8qOypCGWN9b-Iui2b-kbmWgC6zl6cPaE/htmlview#gid=1773303278", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by TMX upload date.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Ibozz91 | 1719070469291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999994 | ap5likbuw7 | {"NO": 1733.3204381099986, "YES": 576.9273690041969} | 0 | will-taylor-swift-sing-so-long-lond | 3955.9266192465075 | Will Taylor Swift sing "So Long London" and/or "London Boy" during her Wembley shows in JUNE. | 1719176260267 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.617929458309282 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718792160220 | Sara | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Eras tour is in Wembley on 21st, 22nd and 23rd June. Will Taylor play \"So Long London\" or \"London Boy\" during her June London shows?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.96936477829269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719176260267 | 1000 | csgoldie | 1719176482141 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717185599667 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719160520574 | 1719176480712 | 0.75 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | 0 |
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