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1718713346985
Punished Ten Shino
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Will humans rent their bodies out to AI?
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Jack Hammer
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Sander Van den Eynden
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check this other market where I give more information about myself and define what counts as a \"romantic relationship\": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "When will I have a romantic relationship?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Peter1169/when-will-i-have-a-romantic-relatio", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Peter1169/when-will-i-have-a-romantic-relatio", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be resolved after the first month of starting a romantic relationship. If the relationship doesn't last that long, it doesn't count for resolution.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't force my next partner or partners to have their private information disclosed here, so responses that no one wants their info here will be resolved as N/A by mods.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In case of multiple partners when the relationship starts, a response will resolve as YES if at least one partner qualifies for YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Open to\" responses mean actual interest in doing that in the future in a serious sense, not in a \"it's a fantasy I have but we will likely never do it\" sense.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All responses will resolve to N/A by a moderator if I die or my account becomes inactive.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All responses will resolve to NO if I haven't had any romantic relationships by the end of 2049 (December).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may add new responses.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OP Trading:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Given the ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "subjetive", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " nature of this market’s resolution, I won't bet in this market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
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Peter1169
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", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[0] O", "type": "text"}, {"text": "regon Rebate Website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oregonrebate.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[1] ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "IP17 Full Text", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sos.oregon.gov/admin/Documents/irr/2024/017text.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/or-24?r=THVrYXNEYXk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to one answer based on", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ballot measure passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The margin by which it passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ballot measure is withdrawn", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[0] ORS 254.065 (2)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oregon.public.law/statutes/ors_254.065", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Anthem/will-oregon-voters-approve-ranked-c", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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What is the FAIREST rule about clawing back FTX money from the charities that the FTX Future Fund gave to?
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Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
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Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On 17 Jun 2024, Reuters reported that Tesla has filed suit against former battery supplied Matthews International, alleging misuse of battery manufacture trade secrets that had been supplied to Matthews by Tesla. Specific allegations include selling products made with Tesla battery technology to competitors, and filing patents based on Tesla's technology. Tesla is claiming at least $1 billion USD in damages. Matthews denies all wrongdoing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sues-ex-supplier-matthews-over-ev-battery-trade-secrets-2024-06-17/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sues-ex-supplier-matthews-over-ev-battery-trade-secrets-2024-06-17/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if Tesla wins in court, or receives in a settlement, at least two of the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$50,000,000 USD or equivalent", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A court order forbidding Matthews using dry-electrode coating battery technology, or similar battery technology that Tesla claims they invented and shared with Matthews, without licensing it from Tesla", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Transfer of patents/patent filings or other intellectual property related to the case from Matthews to Tesla on account of Tesla claiming ownership of the IP", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other outcomes widely described in the media as a victory for Tesla in the suit.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves No if the case is thrown out, the suit is dropped by Tesla without a settlement, ends in a settlement or court decision (even a nominal victory) not including at least two of the above, or is decided in Matthews' favor. A successful countersuit by Matthews does not guarantee a resolution of No; resolution of this market depends entirely on whether Tesla prevails on their claims.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves N/A if the suit ends in a settlement for undisclosed terms, and is not possible to determine whether the conditions are met. This market will remain open until the suit ends.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved if Egan Bernal wins a General Classement ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after market creation (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " in a Grand Tour or retires. The Giro d'Italia, the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana are classified, under normal circumstances, as Grand Tours with 21 or 20 stages. For special occasions like a new GT or a shortened GT I will use my best judgement and clearify it in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "J89Vyo5ygP9JWhm8te1K", "label": "/Lion/will-geraint-thomas-win-another-gra"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kwW3GvrmEdaB5fdBR6nf", "label": "/Lion/will-sepp-kuss-win-another-grand-to"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Thai foreign minister announced a formal request to join BRICS in June 2024 at a meeting with Russia's Sergei Lavrov.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will this membership become official in 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US or allies could put pressure on Thailand not to join what is increasingly seen as a pro-Russian, anti-US group.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fx51vUkTt4I.38?alt=media&token=41bb519a-3bf2-46b4-acad-98264ba7720d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/china/thailand-announces-plans-to-join-brics-nizhny-novgorod-summit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/china/thailand-announces-plans-to-join-brics-nizhny-novgorod-summit", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolve YES if Thailand officially joins BRICS, whether or not it is included in the acronym. It will resolve NO otherwise or if this is not confirmed in official media reports before the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the BRICS meeting in June 2024, Thailand announced its intention to join BRICS.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will Malaysia OR another country (not Thailand) join BRICS in 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/china/malaysia-to-formally-apply-brics-membership-revisits-gold-dinar-reserve-currency", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/china/malaysia-to-formally-apply-brics-membership-revisits-gold-dinar-reserve-currency", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiScs-u3dLr.43?alt=media&token=9b996d9b-28cc-4ad5-ac1e-9d67b647abf3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if any country official ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "joins ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "BRICS (not announces it will join). Current members don't count, and neither does Thailand, which already indicated its intent to join. Malaysia will count, as it has expressed interested but not officially joined or expressed official intent to join. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at the end of 2028, there is at least one model evaluation service that is credentialed in California, or otherwise permitted under their law, that charges less than $500k to test a model.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if there is no such service AND such a service is required for at least one existing model, or would be if one existing model was released for the first time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to my best estimate of fair market price (%) correcting for any manipulations, if no such bill or requirement has passed and it is September 1, 2025 or later, or the chance such a bill will pass by then is clearly under 5% (in which case please ping me for resolution). ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll measure the time from the first touch of their hands to the moment they release. If they shake hands multiple times, only the duration of the first handshake will count. Whether they touch each other's shoulders or their bodies do something else doesn't matter. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the timing is difficult for me to judge precisely and falls between two options, I will resolve 50% chance to each option. [I will not bet on this market.]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be considered N/A if the debate doedn't take place in June or if they do not shake hands during CNN's official live coverage. I will follow ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": " 's market and definition of a handshake, and will resolve this question as N/A if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": "'s market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is intended to be about the scheduled CNN debate on June 27th, but would also include if that debate were rescheduled or cancelled or cancelled and replaced with another debate, so long as it happens in June 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}
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Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before 2026, will experimental results be announced demonstrating a Deep Learning system that outperforms humans at something roughly like the following task?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A person spends less than one hour in an MRI machine visualizing pictures shown and described to them, and this is used to calibrate or funetune the DL system", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference pictures are then shown to the DL system, which must translate them into written or audio descriptions given to the person in the MRI machine, who tries to visualize them", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The reference pictures are then shown directly to the person, and brain activities from the description (including reconstructions of what they visualized) vs the picture are compared for their similarity.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In order for this market to resolve YES, the system must unambiguously outperform researchers or prepared humans at accurately conveying a visual scene, including in cases where the researcher gets up to an hour to practice with the tested person. If it is a clear common expectation that AI systems would outperform humans at this task if it were formally run, this market can also resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market attempts to evaluate the sophistication of multimodal models that can work between language, images, and human neural activations in the short term future.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to bet on this market because I believe the resolution criteria are sufficiently objective. If that impedes on peoples' willingness to bet, let me know and I may be willing to stop betting.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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When will the TMUF Cheated Records Cleansweep project finish?
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cpmm-multi-1
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Will Leonarda Jonie be banned from X OR Instagram OR YouTube before the 2024 American Election?
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