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0.5 | a0itohu0er | {"NO": 33.1495005408217, "YES": 301.6636702470245} | 0.09900895016411056 | macron-activates-article-16-of-the | 205 | Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before the end of 2024 | 1735685940000 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718792392117 | Camille | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if, anytime before the end of day on December 31st 2024, Emmanuel Macron (french president) invokes article 16 of the french constitution, for any length of time. This article relates to exceptional powers, to be activated in case of a \"serious and immediate threat to institutions, independence/territorial integrity, or the execution of international agreements\". Resolves No otherwise at the end of year. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since article 16 must be \"announced to the nation\", which in our days is likely to be a TV speech, I don't foresee ambiguities in resolution. As long as the president announces the usage of article 16 in such address to the nation, this resolves Yes, even if later legal challenges or debate occurs regarding whether this was a legal invokation, which is any case is likely to occurs because this is constitutional lawyers' dream scenario to be relevant for once :p", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, article 16 of the constitution (in French) :", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000019241008", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000019241008", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Non-binding flavor text: This article was invoked a total of 1 time, by Charles de Gaulle during an attempted putsch in what was at the time French Algeria (\"Putsch des généraux\"). It is purely a decision of the president. The article grants full powers, apart from dissolving the parliament and changing the constitution, and only with the goal of restoring normal functioning of the institutions, though the paucity of use and caselaw makes its application unclear in practice. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.40099104983588946} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3363297529754448, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CamillePerrin | 1719320403568 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690366088081 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719320400243 | 1718801774816 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | kcmdpcoyrs | {"NO": 450.639162571039, "YES": 2219.0703406572184} | 0.16879707774427094 | will-nvidias-stock-price-fall-more | 1816 | Will Nvidia’s stock price fall more than 30% in less than 10 days before 2025? | 1735685940000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.671704513107654 | False | basic | public | 1718807233474 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, Nvidia’s stock price must fall by more than 30% within any period which is shorter than 10 consecutive calendar days before 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.33120292225572906} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.49482015331757, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719142047383 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719142044316 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | 4daue931qf | {"NO": 251.0025892251029, "YES": 3984.0226472850545} | 0.05926826292821363 | will-the-5th-starship-test-launch-b | 35988.15473415354 | Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July? | 1722484740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.590429762158611 | False | basic | public | 1718807399644 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: Musk says they're aiming for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"late July\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1802013136494727637?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1802013136494727637%7Ctwgr%5E34c6ab5089778dc1f7d35a37efe53bff23ec48e6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmanifold.markets%2Fjack%2Fwhen-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"launch\" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Starship\" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a binary version of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " (fixed resolve date so that it can potentially be a prize market)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0007317370717864133, "week": -0.02906338829494999, "month": -0.44073173707178637} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 383.0827257020373, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1176.2915236240576 | 1000 | jack | 1720247990789 | 0 | 36 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247987712 | 1719189132755 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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dwh9novppe | when-will-quivertrade-first-release | 125 | When will quiver.trade first release protected liquidity pools? | 1751425140000 | lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718810967795 | kas.eth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Protected liquidity pools on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "quiver.trade", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://quiver.trade", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be similar to regular liquidity pools on DeFi protocols, but protected by quiver's special incentive-compatible batch-auction mechanism.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.775569982056353, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KelvinSantos | 1719001547513 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "sia7eiv03w", "prob": 0.14741268129037344, "text": "Q3 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 103.95323215706459, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 601.231906917216, "textFts": "'2024':2 'q3':1", "contractId": "dwh9novppe", "createdTime": 1718810967795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "wdfw7xbnzp", "prob": 0.2423384719617935, "text": "Q4 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 141.38833280724455, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 442.044960564084, "textFts": "'2024':2 'q4':1", "contractId": "dwh9novppe", "createdTime": 1718810967795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "l5zbjz1wj2", "prob": 0.3154234841670866, "text": "Q1 2025", "index": 2, "poolNo": 169.69772597935383, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 368.30193003060043, "textFts": "'2025':2 'q1':1", "contractId": "dwh9novppe", "createdTime": 1718810967795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "46j9br22k5", "prob": 0.14741268129037344, "text": "Q2 2025", "index": 3, "poolNo": 103.95323215706459, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 601.231906917216, "textFts": "'2025':2 'q2':1", "contractId": "dwh9novppe", "createdTime": 1718810967795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "mkumln4vjp", "prob": 0.14741268129037344, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 103.95323215706459, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 601.231906917216, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dwh9novppe", "createdTime": 1718810967795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647089454014 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719001544367 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rzel7kcc2o | when-will-the-quivertrade-futarchy | 431 | When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live? | 1751425140000 | lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.117560305074745 | False | plus | public | 1718811142429 | kas.eth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quiver plans to use a futarchy mechanism for its own governance (QuiverFAO), once its token is live.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.265472178936545, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | KelvinSantos | 1719001265987 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "lzv2y2brpw", "prob": 0.13847615232636362, "text": "Q3 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 827.9194509017581, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5150.867777028287, "textFts": "'2024':2 'q3':1", "contractId": "rzel7kcc2o", "createdTime": 1718811142430, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005533641383853871, "week": -0.06152384767363639, "month": -0.06152384767363639}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.005533641383853871, "probChangeWeek": -0.06152384767363639, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.06152384767363639}, {"id": "x7umy9xp6j", "prob": 0.22450747935415896, "text": "Q4 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1395.7643910349989, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4821.241808714767, "textFts": "'2024':2 'q4':1", "contractId": "rzel7kcc2o", "createdTime": 1718811142430, "probChanges": {"day": -0.007714275444075019, "week": 0.02450747935415895, "month": 0.02450747935415895}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.007714275444075019, "probChangeWeek": 0.02450747935415895, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.02450747935415895}, {"id": "bnuv57bjii", "prob": 0.2903580161817647, "text": "Q1 2025", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1783.5593869853649, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4359.06209266014, "textFts": "'2025':2 'q1':1", "contractId": "rzel7kcc2o", "createdTime": 1718811142430, "probChanges": {"day": 0.024819249696046985, "week": 0.0903580161817647, "month": 0.0903580161817647}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.024819249696046985, "probChangeWeek": 0.0903580161817647, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.0903580161817647}, {"id": "qnwuqfce63", "prob": 0.17408774837153224, "text": "Q2 2025", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1047.035736841047, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4967.37795186092, "textFts": "'2025':2 'q2':1", "contractId": "rzel7kcc2o", "createdTime": 1718811142430, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005027094131384274, "week": -0.025912251628467775, "month": -0.025912251628467775}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.005027094131384274, "probChangeWeek": -0.025912251628467775, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.025912251628467775}, {"id": "3cxu6biga0", "prob": 0.17257060376618052, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1041.507235522604, "userId": "lJIIRVrog6bSWDm1fQia1YMXOUQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4993.745656874781, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rzel7kcc2o", "createdTime": 1718811142430, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0065442387367359856, "week": -0.027429396233819486, "month": -0.027429396233819486}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0065442387367359856, "probChangeWeek": -0.027429396233819486, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.027429396233819486}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647089454014 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719001262901 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | z6l2lt6fof | {"NO": 139.83729075488435, "YES": 71.51168294248947} | 0.6616416834609968 | will-armada-place-top-8-in-the-next | 41 | Will Armada place top 8 in the next SSBM singles tournament he enters? | 4102462740000 | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718811889898 | NBAP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Armada enters a tournament and places within the top 8 finalists.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if Armada enters a tournament and does not place within the top 8 finalists.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A upon Armada's death.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.16164168346099683} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1627092451156336, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | NBAP | 1718813286223 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1685661001561 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718812149631 | 1718813285061 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wc1tdfkdcb | {"NO": 334.4376270566247, "YES": 2990.0941733170757} | 0.10059691022327763 | will-bay-area-winter-solstice-2024 | 3112.1678157193865 | Will Bay Area Winter Solstice 2024 feature the song "Blood Boy" from Bet on Love? | 1733126340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.76612049179963 | False | basic | public | 1718813898108 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I absolutely adore the song Blood Boy from Bet on Love, 1:34:06 here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/mEF0S1qOsFI", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think it fits the Winter Solstice theme perfectly, as a reflection of what the end of the world could look like and a commitment to love nontheless. Will the organizers agree, and decide to include the song as part of the sungs song at Solstice?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.39940308977672234} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.632199516784524, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Austin | 1719547350098 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719547346636 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tkqo81td95 | {"NO": 178.0415528868064, "YES": 56.166663556106535} | 0.7601849140514809 | will-opie-outlive-anthony | 80 | Will Opie outlive Anthony? | 1893473940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718814794206 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Anthony Cumia passes away before Gregg \"Opie\" Hughes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opie_and_Anthony", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opie_and_Anthony", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2601849140514809} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9584471131935863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719009254331 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719009251282 | 1718815010728 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 2mp5ymjmz5 | {"NO": 67.28078860872532, "YES": 148.63083811569874} | 0.31161262424555886 | will-ofy2902kpz | 50 | Will Russia or North Korea honor their mutual defense pact if the other is attacked by a third party? | 1767221940000 | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718815754453 | Gaz Downright | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. Definition: \"Honor\" means providing direct military assistance, such as deploying troops or launching military strikes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. Trigger Event: An official declaration or widely recognized military engagement by either Russia or North Korea in response to an attack on the other.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. Verification: Confirmation from reputable news sources or official government statements.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4. Timeframe: Until 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5. Outcome: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - \"Yes\" if military assistance is provided.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - \"No\" if no military assistance is provided.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " - \"N/A\" if no attack occurs by January 1, 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18838737575444114} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3691618843012585, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GazDownright | 1719043787430 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697568039966 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719043784365 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999967 | fv3qjg3l2 | {"NO": 4299.9566100408265, "YES": 232.56048623023344} | 1 | will-the-orange-paint-at-stonehenge | 5561.873460583481 | Will the orange paint at Stonehenge be cleaned up by July 1st 2024? | 1718898903687 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.903825684373881 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718817725017 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 19th, \"climate activists\" spray painted the monument at Stonehenge, for some reason.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/britain/two-stop-oil-activists-arrested-spraying-stonehenge-orange-paint-ahead-summer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/britain/two-stop-oil-activists-arrested-spraying-stonehenge-orange-paint-ahead-summer", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fj1qFwBNhGr.15?alt=media&token=705a8256-c164-44c2-9a3a-946609277e7e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the paint be removed by Juy 1st? According to official report or media articles mentioning the restoration of the monument. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This seems likely, but as the story points out, the stone is ancient, has living organisms on it, and rapid removal could cause further damage. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there are no official reports about the cleanup, post-June 19th images of a cleaned-up Stonehenge will suffice. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.07992801227154, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718898903687 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1718898991121 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718894638421 | 1718898989891 | 0.95 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | o8jizycsi5 | {"NO": 945.5766813973572, "YES": 1057.5556902716949} | 0.4720490242037688 | 100-people-regain-mobility-using-a | 90 | 100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027 | 1814425140000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570819553091518 | False | basic | public | 1718818493228 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It becomes reasonable to believe that by end of claim, at least 100 people internationally have had movement problems due to spine damage, etc will regain some level of movement via a Neuralink device.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has to be via their normal neurons, just patched or fixed, or by bridging a gap. i.e. their spinal cord is damaged, and something from Neuralink finds a way to transmit the signals across the gap.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things like using Neuralink to measure their neural impulses from the brain and then transmit them to mechanical parts which help the person move wouldn't for this market. This can YES any time before 6/30/2027, and NO after if no proof can be found.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023375460457146335, "month": -0.02795097579623118} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9885870184543197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1719935287205 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719935284020 | 1718820087208 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | ny3yqghsjo | {"NO": 27.145711293270182, "YES": 368.38231615905886} | 0.06863157452613632 | will-ilya-sutskevers-company-ssi-re | 465 | Will Ilya Sutskever’s company SSI release a model by EOY 2024? | 1735718340000 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718818929050 | mr_mino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if they release a LLM or multimodal product by the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43136842547386367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.485460079903503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | mr_mino | 1718891805824 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhpVDFQAVKbt-9Od9WSi01Lp_CQJnMybA5BxSxLa6a=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700547753036 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718891802774 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5036319513770682 | klzs1hgokq | {"NO": 209.63080209588085, "YES": 50.0186641429065} | 0.809610260552793 | will-the-entirety-of-the-currently | 110 | Will the entirety of the currently designated Kaliningrad Oblast still be administered by Russia at the end of 2028? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718819415350 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if any part of the territory splits off, becomes annexed, occupied, or otherwise changes administrator to another state/organization other than Russia. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.13571717241815706, "month": 0.30961026055279295} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3691979041191544, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719814988618 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719814985535 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 99r6mobo0c | {"NO": 1170.7252868447922, "YES": 854.1713510733937} | 0.5781654554221719 | will-social-media-sites-have-warnin | 1266 | Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028? | 1830412740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574194610391071 | False | basic | public | 1718819589664 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NYT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/health/surgeon-general-social-media-warning-label.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The U.S. surgeon general, Dr. Vivek Murthy, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced on Monday", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/opinion/social-media-health-warning.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that he would push for a warning label on social media platforms advising parents that using the platforms might damage adolescents’ mental health.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria (provisional):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any one of Twitter(X), Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, Reddit (list may be expanded) show a visible warning label on their website that warns users about impact to mental health. The country/region of the users doesn't make a difference.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.0781654554221719} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.8684488020208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | singer | 1719166506046 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719166502979 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hcihogq4zw | what-will-be-true-of-the-company-sa | 33725.597057450876 | What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers) | 1767254340000 | JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718820071411 | mr_mino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ilya Sutskever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1803472978753303014", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "label": "mr_mino"}}, {"text": " , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you see a question you’d like to resolve early, please post a comment below. Feel free to add answers to this question. 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'report':5 'term':15", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718822809305, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06687400151842202, "month": -0.30170678071480245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.06687400151842202, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.30170678071480245}, {"id": "18pykhljvz", "prob": 0.23046762441653215, "text": "Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company ", "index": 20, "poolNo": 54.72572384526069, "userId": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 182.7294240689339, "textFts": "'aschenbrenn':2 'compani':6 'join':4 'leopold':1", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718822992967, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2695323755834679}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.2695323755834679}, {"id": "wfgr0xk", "prob": 0.033447497198474486, 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Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)", "index": 27, "poolNo": 193.8536872455663, "userId": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.585296839530244, "textFts": "'compani':2 'document':11 'e.g':12 'framework':16 'openai':13 'polici':8 'prepared':15 'publish':4 'respons':6 'scale':7 'similar':10", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718824468425, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.03017564520901439, "month": 0.28982435479098545}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.03017564520901439, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.28982435479098545}, {"id": "vxveemcynd", "prob": 0.2859670504533281, "text": "The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system", "index": 28, "poolNo": 63.2847212417642, "userId": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 158.01602351691466, "textFts": "'ai':12 'compani':2 'entir':9 'paper':7 'publish':4 'research':6 'system':13 'written':8", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718824560692, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.13036520221134648, "month": -0.2140329495466719}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.13036520221134648, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.2140329495466719}, {"id": "68wli2lbz7", "prob": 0.28490891171042204, "text": "The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)", "index": 29, "poolNo": 63.120776673069884, "userId": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 158.4264409767068, "textFts": "'/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)':19 'advoc':4 'ai':7 'compani':2 'e.g':16 'endors':12 'futureoflife.org':18 'futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)':17 'paus':9 'propos':15 'scale':8", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718825049122, "probChanges": 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'compani':8 'eoy':5 'made':10 'manufactur':16 'robot':14 'signific':11", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718826150646, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.07085926703857681, "month": -0.15852146821598156}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.07085926703857681, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.15852146821598156}, {"id": "e5auffy4xf", "prob": 0.3116126242455588, "text": "The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)", "index": 35, "poolNo": 67.28078860872532, "userId": "JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 148.63083811569877, "textFts": "'ai':7,9 'benchmark':11 'compani':2 'e.g':12 'gpqa':14 'mmlu':13 'new':6 'releas':4 'safeti':10", "contractId": "hcihogq4zw", "createdTime": 1718826244758, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.08766220117740475, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, 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0.8410968276094638 | cp2uxtuzmy | {"NO": 8751.747720975718, "YES": 9896.43495198824} | 0.8239715804339897 | will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex | 17491.039804792636 | Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years? | 1781938740000 | gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4443091134762724 | False | plus | public | 1718827992390 | Saul Munn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves YES if there's an event with all of the following properties:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "more than 50 attendees", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "has the name \"manifest\" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. \"manivibefest\" or \"lessfest\" would count)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i've seen a few markets about whether there will be a \"manifest 2025,\" but it seems quite plausible that the next manifest will be run ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " 2025 — in the fall or early winter of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.0036986626387728316, "month": 0.32397158043398966} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 238.98410973753013, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | saulmunn | 1719978431162 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZUXokPymgD5tR3Rv4gtxGuihIIsF3UOHG4nlIEyQ=s96-c | 43 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677778511210 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719978427952 | 1719830405913 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | c5rb4ukoj5 | {"NO": 99.99999999999999, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-i-coldemail-30-people-in-the-n | 176.84142066754643 | Will I cold-email 30 people in the next 30 days? | 1721458740000 | swQ7ThYbFucIpGgmXd8VavIDFsO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718828145525 | Alex Shadley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "previous motivational markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/jcbmrshll/will-alexshadley-and-i-go-to-the-gy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " have been super effective, so lets give this a try.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Cold-emailing people is something that I absolutely should be doing and currently am not doing basically because it's uncomfortable.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically I'm really interested in how the government can do software better (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Recoding America", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " radicalized me) so that'll be the focus. Any of the following would be super helpful:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "someone you think I should email", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "you ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " someone I should email (probably doesn't count for this market but hit me up haha)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "any tips for how to cold email effectively", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll make a spreadsheet to track. Deadline is July 19.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Standard motivation market rules apply: I can only buy YES, and no selling.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.41288187887196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AlexShadley | 1718993721799 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700933235517 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718993718744 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42645758775366777 | 5cjxwtve8d | {"NO": 4580.300954677243, "YES": 28114.453412054554} | 0.10804787327702003 | will-cash-withdrawals-be-enabled-be-81gpa3by65 | 67605.30430109943 | Will cash withdrawals be enabled before August 1st? | 1722495540000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1198159008028647 | False | plus | public | 1718830448697 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold officially enable cash withdrawals to user accounts (not just charities) any time before August 1st, 2024? Cash withdrawals must be an active part of the Manifold UI users could theoretically use.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0011120481457586179, "month": -0.39195212672297997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1020.2946272044013, "platformFee": 20.294627204401287, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | SG | 1720113809710 | 0 | 106 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720113806652 | 1718900374428 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cp6ksuc5pe | {"NO": 27.810768463797032, "YES": 359.5729479038884} | 0.07179126867945174 | will-steve-endacott-be-elected-as-a | 416.1517145283254 | Will Steve Endacott be elected as a Member of Parliament during the 2024 UK general elections ? | 1722463140000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718831875554 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the quite unusual candidate \"AI Steve\" \"wins\" a seat at the parliament, it should be given to Steve Endacott", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/no-hallucination-ai-candidate-ballot-uk-election-2024-06-19/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/no-hallucination-ai-candidate-ballot-uk-election-2024-06-19/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.021825189089980483, "month": -0.42820873132054826} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.2753375677861385, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1719810093455 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719810090313 | 1718889162333 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dg92ain6wm | who-is-manifolder | 395.1024553309895 | Who is Manifolder? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718834900974 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Second largest NO holder on the Biden drops out market on polymarket: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCcmI9vyoiN.png?alt=media&token=ab7e9af1-679b-4568-a539-0c836556088d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Are they a Manifold User? If so, Which Manifold user are they?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Other at EOY 2024 if it still is not known at that time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "You are welcome to DM me the answer if it is anonymous, or DM me that the person isn't on this list, if you wish to.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8904974532243797, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 110 | Bayesian | 1719075250583 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "27th3lc0ij", "prob": 0.03778184109502306, "text": "@Bayesian", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.788876998915281, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 351.1715537073498, "textFts": "'bayesian':1", "contractId": "dg92ain6wm", "createdTime": 1718834900974, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.46555490006528705, "month": -0.46555490006528705}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.46555490006528705, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.46555490006528705}, {"id": "tpwd2cnvqj", "prob": 0.0522265625531369, "text": "@JonathanRay", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.348305518036411, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.615509890017165, "textFts": "'jonathanray':1", "contractId": "dg92ain6wm", "createdTime": 1718836939174, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.47012318575368917, "month": -0.47012318575368917}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.47012318575368917, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.47012318575368917}, {"id": "7nuiaksyv7", "prob": 0.90999159635184, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 39.958398325090926, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.9523350105621837, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dg92ain6wm", "createdTime": 1718834900974, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.43567808581897627, "month": 0.43567808581897627}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.43567808581897627, "totalLiquidity": 12.563241831048195, "probChangeMonth": 0.43567808581897627}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719075247491 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | pg4tcgfip7 | {"NO": 3095.8043276518224, "YES": 323.01783128474005} | 0.9055178022523361 | will-the-houthis-sink-a-third-ship | 2472.197756365755 | Will the Houthis sink a third ship before 2025? | 1735707540000 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.779358431743884 | False | basic | public | 1718835899521 | mint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's been confirmed the Houthis sank two ships in in the Red Sea, the Rubymar and the Tutor: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://apnews.com/article/houthi-rebels-ship-attack-red-sea-yemen-bfa7d321e55c5bb59b268b82ef3c56ba", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/houthi-rebels-ship-attack-red-sea-yemen-bfa7d321e55c5bb59b268b82ef3c56ba", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if they sink a third ship before 2025. Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its own, or is not salvageable so it is purposely sank by a third party. Small ships are excluded, the ship must be over 100 feet long.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.015326584224664153, "month": 0.40551780225233613} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.70672700878014, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mint | 1720157265168 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697647723543 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720157262074 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000007 | 6ukjydo0nd | {"NO": 1119.9064697278961, "YES": 498.75069479951975} | 0.26768577566870294 | will-i-would-have-shit-in-that-alle | 610 | Will "I would have shit in that alley, too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.839358996267546 | False | public | 1718836865028 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "I would have shit in that alley, too", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sCWe5RRvSHQMccd2Q/i-would-have-shit-in-that-alley-too", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06653896516204305, "week": 0.06653896516204305, "month": 0.12768577566870293} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.589202144812475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 60 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720205623905 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720205620529 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | pe83w1eczu | {"NO": 984.0181086446971, "YES": 1104.0303544606302} | 0.12670981073896137 | will-boycott-openai-make-the-top-fi | 105 | Will "Boycott OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905597903778721 | False | public | 1718840814657 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Boycott OpenAI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sXhBCDLJPEjadwHBM/boycott-openai", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.013290189261038643} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9696455393696398, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718922223788 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718922220733 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49405147483153455 | 5137onruny | {"NO": 58.195148694901626, "YES": 179.95130420052186} | 0.23999999999999996 | will-openai-release-a-tokenizer-wit-c25umpe3w0 | 79.91445069833429 | Will OpenAI release a tokenizer with more than 210000 tokens before 2026? | 1767243540000 | d3TsKbqjJNVaBJ0Ouw567WGDzn83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718841682383 | loops! | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if OpenAI adds support for a tokenizer with more than 210000 tokens to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tiktoken", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/openai/tiktoken", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (or its successor) before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.26} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9631464978124342, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | loops | 1718841723561 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646273136474 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718841720537 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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-0.016040833792957954}, {"id": "aizu0jkdbv", "prob": 0.0805711404778153, "text": "R +3.0 or more", "index": 8, "poolNo": 506.850327784913, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5783.867723109138, "textFts": "'+3.0':2 'r':1", "contractId": "len3y3t1s3", "createdTime": 1718846510700, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02933951124999462, "week": -0.02933951124999462, "month": -0.02933951124999462}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02933951124999462, "probChangeWeek": -0.02933951124999462, "totalLiquidity": 176.7766952966369, "probChangeMonth": -0.02933951124999462}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718898448047 | 1718885828211 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | smzrebffvu | {"NO": 816.4965809277253, "YES": 1224.7448713915896} | 0.39999999999999997 | will-i-polaris-parthstuff-or-shaula | 1029.932826491879 | Will I @polaris, @ParthStuff, or @shaula get a girlfriend by the end of 2025? | 1735707540000 | HdBMBQRvbCc83fyu5ebRfV41Lno2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576725540588914 | False | basic | public | 1718848896378 | Polaris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any one of us has a girlfriend at any point in time before 12/31/2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if none of us have a girlfriend by 12/31/2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I can provide additional information if anyone asks and will answer any questions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10000000000000003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.2146318305727, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | polaris | 1719716350347 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxagMaPO1ExU6dqXaY0G2OycyFEV1E9HdOQDCiIS0tQ=s96-c | 10 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679347508991 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719465882804 | 1718889965005 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | upq1w96umx | {"NO": 164.42942874387475, "YES": 60.81636405595377} | 0.7299999999999998 | f1-all-the-races-from-june-23-to-se | 330.25080313775493 | F1: All the races from June 23 to September 1 are in Europe. Will these seven races be won by European drivers? | 1725249540000 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718849296970 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are seven Formula 1 races from June 23 to September 1, in Spain, Austria, Great Britain, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, and Italy, which are all countries in Europe.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if all seven races are won by drivers representing European countries.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves NO if at least one of these races is won by a driver who represents a country that is not in Europe, such as Australia, China, Japan, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.08976476051768834, "week": 0.09999999999999987, "month": 0.22999999999999976} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.286704064565491, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 56.30709931443007 | 100 | StefanXJ7 | 1720197932698 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720197929378 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | gnqw73hk5s | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-sycophancy-to-subterfuge-inves | 50 | Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718852516822 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating reward tampering in large language models", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FSgGBjDiaCdWxNBhj/sycophancy-to-subterfuge-investigating-reward-tampering-in", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869118225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869115182 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | d6950gdhr7 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-the-consistency-of-the-first-o | 0 | Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050? | 2556118740000 | asfPYG3K8UPKNzLGZiz8pFvXvEG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1718853473138 | / | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://googology.fandom.com/wiki/User_blog:P%E9%80%B2%E5%A4%A7%E5%A5%BD%E3%81%8Dbot/First_Order_Theory_beyond_Higher_Order_Set_Theory#Theory", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://googology.fandom.com/wiki/User_blog:P%E9%80%B2%E5%A4%A7%E5%A5%BD%E3%81%8Dbot/First_Order_Theory_beyond_Higher_Order_Set_Theory#Theory", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory is written for the googolism ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Large Number Garden Number", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://googology.fandom.com/wiki/Large_Number_Garden_Number", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - the current largest known non-salad number in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "googology community", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://googology.fandom.com/wiki/Googology_Wiki", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is such a strong theory that it might be possible to be inconsistent in some trivial way.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I found rigorous proof for/against the consistency of the set theory that Googology Wiki has accepted. Resolves NO if no such proof is released before EOY 2050. If for any reason the Googology Wiki ceases to exist, I will use other sources or my own judgment.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | khang2009 | 1718853550766 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709991419015 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qmjkp5hrr | {"NO": 56.29323511402055, "YES": 177.641238414265} | 0.2406367657788326 | lab-grown-meat-commercially-availab | 347.7482560527758 | Lab grown meat commercially available in the US by the end of 2024? | 1736312340000 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718853932958 | Dialethia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, two restaurants are serving lab-grown meat: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://santemagazine.com/the-first-two-restaurants-serving-cultivated-meat-in-the-u-s/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://santemagazine.com/the-first-two-restaurants-serving-cultivated-meat-in-the-u-s/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Other than that, it is not commercially available. This market will resolve to yes in the event that one can readily buy lab grown meat from a restaurant, store, or directly from the manufacturer in an \"easy\" way such as clicking a buy button on a site. Methods that require entering into a contract like those that the restaurant and UPSIDE are in will not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If this does not happen by 12:00 AM Jan 1 2025 Central Time, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: I have realized that the resolution criteria appears a bit vague. To be clear, if the meat becomes available in any other restaurant, or can be purchased from any store or directly from the manufacturer, this market will resolve to yes. If one of the two restaurants opens another restaurant under the same name but in a different location, that will be sufficient to resolve to yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05291012677229992, "month": -0.25936323422116736} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.02049310978571, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Dialethia | 1719809983456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713946675676 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809980327 | 1719015391518 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | mqhk9wp12p | {"NO": 283.86026094246824, "YES": 35.22860144917139} | 0.8895962673685147 | will-donald-trump-attend-the-rnc | 187 | Will Donald Trump attend the RNC? | 1721534340000 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718854285021 | Destiny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump physically attends the RNC in-person, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3895962673685147} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1397390575317776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Destiny3a152 | 1719007338772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714885629354 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719007335718 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | n376maotwn | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-response-to-nostalgebraist-pro | 50 | Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1718854532039 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my moral-antirealist battle flag", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8YhjpgQ2eLfnzQ7ec/response-to-nostalgebraist-proudly-waving-my-moral", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869099541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869096494 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999994 | hfq681ukbs | {"NO": 994.9874371066212, "YES": 10.050378152592117} | 1 | biden-more-likely-than-trump-in-fiv | 1618.9250688770242 | Biden more likely than Trump in FiveThirtyEight Forecast on July 1? | 1719819476800 | ktHUwkTNM9e2os9Zp1m5p7Oubu42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718854684311 | Cactus Hunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden is more likely than Trump to win in the FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast during 12:00 AM July 1 2024 Eastern Time, this market will resolve to YES. If they are equally likely or if Trump is beating Biden, this question will resolve to NO. If Biden beats Trump at some point before market creation, but not exactly during 12:00 July 1, that will not be sufficient to resolve this market to YES, and it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.7660694181749088, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.358065619110757, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719819476800 | 100 | CactusHunter | 1719819513618 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRVud1e2kvJxXJSyszNcPXnGZAUbVzwx6TvC15BrH9S9WRsA=s96-c | 10 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718239377989 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719819462751 | 1719819512427 | 0.99 | ktHUwkTNM9e2os9Zp1m5p7Oubu42 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | yahrdpg563 | {"NO": 980.8928778285006, "YES": 1019.479315839056} | 0 | will-i-do-an-hour-on-the-treadmill | 3339.049637794365 | Will I do an hour on the treadmill every day for three days? | 1718947183788 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570391118552854 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718855164018 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a treadmill in front of my TV in the living room. My wife likes to watch a lot of TV with me on the couch. This seems like a low hanging fruit.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.16858336395055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718947183788 | 1000 | JonathanRay | 1718952296647 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718943783825 | 1718952295786 | 0.49 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19361870766195963 | 14gu8ok04n | {"NO": 944.9607273006937, "YES": 1122.4163308818552} | 0.16815476842443836 | will-martin-shkreli-be-convicted-of | 125 | Will Martin Shkreli be convicted of a new crime by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.733224244924912 | False | basic | public | 1718855605971 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -0.33184523157556167} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5836691181451665, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720061355844 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718860422772 | 1720061354309 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | t6itbd8dlh | {"NO": 1096.7693839261674, "YES": 911.7687042103998} | 0.5460535652294757 | are-we-currently-in-an-ai-economic | 100 | Are we currently in an AI economic bubble? | 1862035140000 | 0y85GS9Pr3X3CkrWqWWs3Vt8QlR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658363807154 | False | basic | public | 1718856517426 | Winston Oswald-Drummond | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tech companies contributing to AI progress--on both the hardware and software side--are making a lot of money lately. The question is: Is it over, or just getting started? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves subjectively, based on my diligent assessment of the literature on January 1, 2029. Resolves YES if I reasonably decide that we were indeed in an AI bubble at market creation, meaning AI-connected stocks are generally significantly overvalued.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If it's very unclear at the time of close, I reserve the right to extend the market until the question is sufficiently settled.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947568} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2306160738324863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WinstonOswaldDrummond | 1718874588721 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663659938510 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718874585636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gg65l9bpgb | who-will-finish-in-second-place-at-xp8h1x9jzg | 2018.9605525246586 | Who will finish in second place at the 2024 Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix? | 1719154898394 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 6sng7u2o1b | public | 1718859052998 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must come in second place in the actual race (not a sprint race). 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oomgmzqx1b | who-will-finish-in-the-top-6-places-7f3f1ffy04 | 2444.0091769097403 | Who will finish in the top 6 places at the 2024 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 1719792000000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718859523728 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the top 6 places in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on June 30, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Six answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish in the top six, or fewer than six drivers finish the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.80675044052812, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | KevinBurke | 1719759262230 | 0 | 6 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "sx3m2nphxq", "prob": 1, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 238.70117772332912, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4189338358267207, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0882615059949986, "week": 0.0882615059949986, "month": 0.3845388787810231}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0882615059949986, "probChangeWeek": 0.0882615059949986, "resolutionTime": 1719759228651, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0.3845388787810231, "resolutionProbability": 1}, {"id": "v92founbds", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Sergio Perez", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0050378152592216, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.49874371066207, "textFts": "'perez':2 'sergio':1", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14, "week": -0.14, "month": -0.14}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.14, "probChangeWeek": -0.14, "resolutionTime": 1719759231129, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.14, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "x7wwi1fxpq", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Fernando Alonso", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.0050378152592216, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.49874371066207, "textFts": "'alonso':2 'fernando':1", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1883873757544411, "month": -0.1883873757544411}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1883873757544411, "resolutionTime": 1719759233114, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.1883873757544411, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "nnk9vhemip", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Charles Leclerc", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.0050378152592145, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.49874371066207, "textFts": "'charl':1 'leclerc':2", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5983873757544285, "week": -0.4099999999999874, "month": -0.4099999999999874}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.5983873757544285, "probChangeWeek": -0.4099999999999874, "resolutionTime": 1719759235127, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.4099999999999874, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "hwamtx8c5b", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Carlos Sainz", "index": 4, "poolNo": 99.49874371066197, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0050378152592145, "textFts": "'carlo':1 'sainz':2", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10798053458926749, "week": 0.2963679103437086, "month": 0.2963679103437086}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.10798053458926749, "probChangeWeek": 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false, "poolYes": 1.0050378152592145, "textFts": "'oscar':1 'piastri':2", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08838737575444122, "week": 0.09999999999999987, "month": 0.09999999999999987}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08838737575444122, "probChangeWeek": 0.09999999999999987, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0.09999999999999987}, {"id": "n9afrzwfan", "prob": 0.010000000000000028, "text": "Alex Albon", "index": 9, "poolNo": 1.0050378152592145, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.49874371066196, "textFts": "'albon':2 'alex':1", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3592062665674655, "month": -0.3592062665674655}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3592062665674655, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.3592062665674655}, {"id": "7a9t8x9d9p", "prob": 0.010000000000000018, "text": "Lance Stroll", "index": 10, "poolNo": 1.0050378152592145, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.49874371066205, "textFts": "'lanc':1 'stroll':2", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.2962773727860246, "month": -0.2962773727860246}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.2962773727860246, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.2962773727860246}, {"id": "dnw0svp3hv", "prob": 0.9900000000000001, "text": "Other/The Field", "index": 11, "poolNo": 99.49874371066207, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0050378152592003, "textFts": "'field':2 'other/the':1", "contractId": "oomgmzqx1b", "createdTime": 1718859523728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719759259184 | False | 0 |
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