CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before the end of 2024

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Camille

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if, anytime before the end of day on December 31st 2024, Emmanuel Macron (french president) invokes article 16 of the french constitution, for any length of time. This article relates to exceptional powers, to be activated in case of ...

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Will the Kickstarter Campaign of The Wayward Realms reach the stretch goal of $800k?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES, if the counter on the Kickstarter page", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/oncelostgames/the-wayward-realms/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://...

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How high will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 17th July be?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 17th July.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes the annual CPI number fo...

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Which Teams Will Qualify for the Quarterfinals at the 2024 Euros?

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vibhav

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Which Teams Will Qualify for the Semifinals at the 2024 Euros?

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vibhav

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4 teams will qualify", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DM or comment with any questions", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thank you for participating!", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will $NVDA have the largest market cap EOY 2024?

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cpmm-1

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nic

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on 2024-12-31 NVDA has the largest market cap.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(per NASDAQ market close last trading day of the year)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO otherwise.", "type": "t...

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Will someone Boo palmer luckey as he comes on stage at AWE 2024 later today?

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Gordan Knott

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GordanKnott

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Which will win the table tennis rematch

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cpmm-multi-1

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S B

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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SBo3mn

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ONLY_CREATOR

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2sotdwfa5p

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What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Alberto?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

True

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Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Operationally", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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SaviorofPlant

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Will Nvidia’s stock price fall more than 30% in less than 10 days before 2025?

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cpmm-1

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9.671704513107654

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Ihor Kendiukhov

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, Nvidia’s stock price must fall by more than 30% within any period which is shorter than 10 consecutive calendar days before 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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IhorKendiukhov

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Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July?

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Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: Musk...

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How big will be the *monthly* prize pool for third quiver.trade tournament? (ending on July 10th)

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kas.eth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current status on the XP milestones can be seen in real-time at:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://beta.quiver.trade/#tournaments", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:de...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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KelvinSantos

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Outcome of New York Times OpenAI lawsuit before 01-01-2025?

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Crypto Singh

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will the outcome of copyright infringement lawsuit against OpenAI by New York Times before 01-01-2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Outcome verificat...

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TheCryptoSingh

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kas.eth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pre-market futures are futures market on coins/tokens/projects that are not live yet.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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When will quiver.trade publicly release market making pools?

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kas.eth

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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KelvinSantos

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When will quiver.trade accept deposits on Solana blockchain?

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kas.eth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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KelvinSantos

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Will most clinical trial participants show significant biomarker improvements after 6 months of Metformin use?

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Will Opie outlive Anthony?

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chris (strutheo)

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100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

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Will Ilya Sutskever’s company SSI open source its models in 2024?

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mr_mino

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will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-tlvj0jg04w

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Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 20 than it closed on June 18

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Jim Fix

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Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025?

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cpmm-1

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Will Ilya Sutskever’s company SSI release a model by EOY 2024?

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JljMq9ITGFVYhXqKk1oS1MtmXf83

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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mr_mino

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Will 10+ acres of land surrounding the Tumangan River be sold from Russia to China by the end of 2024?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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chris (strutheo)

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Will the entirety of the currently designated Kaliningrad Oblast still be administered by Russia at the end of 2028?

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10.586609649448985

False

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chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if any part of the territory splits off, becomes annexed, occupied, or otherwise changes administrator to another state/organization other than Russia. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-social-media-sites-have-warnin

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Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

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cpmm-1

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9.574194610391071

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singer

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What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)

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mr_mino

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mr_mino

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Is SSI your SSRI?

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Paulin

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Ppau

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10.586609649448985

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CelebratedWhale

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Will Legal Gender cease to exist in the US before 2060?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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Olivier Clementin

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jacksonpolack

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Who is Manifolder?

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Will I @polaris, @ParthStuff, or @shaula get a girlfriend by the end of 2025?

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Polaris

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Stefan XJ7

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Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

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Lab grown meat commercially available in the US by the end of 2024?

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Will Donald Trump attend the RNC?

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Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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Biden more likely than Trump in FiveThirtyEight Forecast on July 1?

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Will Martin Shkreli be convicted of a new crime by the end of 2025?

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Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

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Who will win the 2024 Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix?

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Who will win the 2024 Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix?

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Who will finish in second place at the 2024 Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix?

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Kevin Burke

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