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0.7500000000000001 | vts1cx3m86 | {"NO": 541.955788233063, "YES": 1226.5315207379851} | 0.5700000000000001 | will-max-verstappen-win-the-2024-fo-652e1pp2ge | 618.1301173140482 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix? | 1720396800000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.282423689779915 | False | basic | public | 1718859706869 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 7, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0019255006637592942, "week": -0.08702890581657297, "month": -0.17999999999999994} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.385955550021254, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 108.1301173140482 | 1000 | KevinBurke | 1720187232836 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 1720187229777 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yx4qqg48ex | who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at-th-7nr5rltnzy | 263 | Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix? | 1720396800000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718859707492 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish on the podium in the actual race (not a sprint race). 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7jmbxeglaq | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th-0y1k5ezy4c | 170 | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix? | 1720396800000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718859709065 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the points in the actual race (not a sprint race). 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The race will take place on July 21, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Three answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish on the podium, because that answer can only be chosen once.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " In resolving any questions about unforeseen circumstances, weight will be placed on which drivers if any appear on the actual podium after the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.838575650255685, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | KevinBurke | 1719851329840 | 0 | 6 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ofx2wp5kip", "prob": 0.8845388787810304, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 0, 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emfl3htsi2 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-6-places-fugjjw1y62 | 152.53697370064913 | Who will finish in the top 6 places at the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | 1721606400000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718859785379 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the top 6 places in the actual race (not a sprint race). 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alxn0mhcw5 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th-wqx9ybdxpi | 231.65345118045005 | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | 1721606400000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718859786092 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the points in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 21, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Ten answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish in the top ten, or fewer than ten drivers score points.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.872940399661514, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | KevinBurke | 1719851258138 | 0 | 4 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "09vk5wct7d", "prob": 0.9765519217725149, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.53481097727989, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.5495512962020754, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "alxn0mhcw5", "createdTime": 1718859786092, "probChanges": {"day": 0, 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9qjoijym58 | when-will-volume-38-of-hunter-x-hun | 25 | When will Volume 38 of Hunter x Hunter be released? | 1735772340000 | tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718872659459 | Noya | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Volume 38 start to be available (in Japan)? The physical volume needs to be purchasable in Japan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next volume usually coincides with a comeback from hiatus (probably to boost sales). So volume 38 will release around when the next chapter (401) is published. Unless things completely change.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2345799091593375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NoyaV | 1718872669867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "95k439iqt1", "prob": 0.15564840486655346, "text": "August 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 96.00540304841226, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 520.8040215693559, "textFts": "'2024':2 'august':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "qh4wyy629b", "prob": 0.16887031902668936, "text": "September 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 100.79227970429696, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 496.06974012979293, "textFts": "'2024':2 'septemb':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "hq5fi7jg8t", "prob": 0.16887031902668936, "text": "October 2024", "index": 2, "poolNo": 100.79227970429696, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 496.06974012979293, "textFts": "'2024':2 'octob':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "lymc59feg6", "prob": 0.16887031902668936, "text": "November 2024", "index": 3, "poolNo": 100.79227970429696, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 496.06974012979293, "textFts": "'2024':2 'novemb':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1ni9kdzfyz", "prob": 0.16887031902668936, "text": "December 2024", "index": 4, "poolNo": 100.79227970429696, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 496.06974012979293, "textFts": "'2024':2 'decemb':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "h3lj81sxmv", "prob": 0.16887031902668936, "text": "2025+", "index": 5, "poolNo": 100.79227970429696, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 496.06974012979293, "textFts": "'2025':1", "contractId": "9qjoijym58", "createdTime": 1718872659460, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679587233389 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718872666735 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In addition to a numeric score and a ranking, the index categorizes each country into one of four regime types: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "full democracies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_democracy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "flawed democracies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illiberal_democracy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "hybrid regimes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_regime", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "authoritarian regimes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarian_regimes", "class": "mw-redirect", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".'", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The United States degraded from being a full democracy to a flawed democracy in 2016. Will this trend accelerate?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Economist Democracy Index is no longer updated by 2040 then I will try to find a consensus on a comparable index.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if at any point the United States degrades into a hybrid regime, regardless if it then recovers as a flawed democracy by 2040.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.08345964298600206, "month": -0.05755769188486293} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.85233502359252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanW | 1719809722281 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672858531132 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809719161 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6431360275787087}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718640635799 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718917257276 | {"tsbuf3zlap": 100} | kmfWUUM4lRPnKZ8ACCoO7cXlkl22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fnxgkaihgs | {"NO": 1051.2510320825359, "YES": 951.2475797707353} | 0.5249696683233277 | whitebox-research-will-get-at-least | 53 | WhiteBox Research will get at least one fellow accepted into a ≥0.5 FTE AI safety research fellowship by EoY 2024. | 1735660740000 | VyJDiDLXWtO5lXt81kR816b8wCE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57072118902268 | False | basic | public | 1718885168801 | Clark | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WhiteBox Research", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifund.org/projects/whitebox-research-training-exclusively-for-mechanistic-interpretability", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is currently holding an interpretability fellowship in Manila. 11 participants are currently in our fellowship’s guided research phase, 6 of whom will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Neel Nanda's 200 Concrete Open Problems", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coda.io/d/Open-Problems-in-Mechanistic-Interpretability_dYuLgs-uYaI/Open-Problems-in-Mechanistic-Interpretability_suiS7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to rapidly upskill in mechanistic interpretability. We are currently funded by the Long-Term Future Fund and Manifund.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Some of the fellows in our first cohort include:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an IOI silver medalist", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an Iranian Geometry Olympiad bronze medalist", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an AI engineering technical manager and former trainer for the Philippine IOI team", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Other fellows have also won first and third places in recent Apart Hackathons.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Examples of such fellowships include: MATS Winter Cohort 2024-2025, SPAR, Apart Lab, etc. We will only count such a fellowship if it’s explicitly geared towards doing research, but will otherwise not require actual publication of a paper.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0249696683233277} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7489679174641175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | zrkrlc | 1718885270182 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681780792633 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718885266934 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | v7f0zbotwh | {"NO": 1912.1200008437788, "YES": 522.9797290749127} | 0.7852327267547377 | whitebox-research-will-have-at-leas | 988.8860658203112 | WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024. | 1735660740000 | VyJDiDLXWtO5lXt81kR816b8wCE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.636770369422507 | False | basic | public | 1718885316562 | Clark | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WhiteBox Research", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifund.org/projects/whitebox-research-training-exclusively-for-mechanistic-interpretability", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is currently holding an interpretability fellowship in Manila. 11 participants are currently in our fellowship’s guided research phase, 6 of whom will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Neel Nanda's 200 Concrete Open Problems", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coda.io/d/Open-Problems-in-Mechanistic-Interpretability_dYuLgs-uYaI/Open-Problems-in-Mechanistic-Interpretability_suiS7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to rapidly upskill in mechanistic interpretability. We are currently funded by the Long-Term Future Fund and Manifund.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Some of the fellows in our first cohort include:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an IOI silver medalist", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an Iranian Geometry Olympiad bronze medalist", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- an AI engineering technical manager and former trainer for the Philippine IOI team", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Other fellows have also won first and third places in recent Apart Hackathons.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Said project must last at least four weeks, and may not necessarily be funded by any external funding source or grantmaker.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.28523272675473765} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.695944779021627, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | zrkrlc | 1718916050348 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681780792633 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718916047232 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | joo4z4i2xx | {"NO": 127.41258815044182, "YES": 7848.518066513622} | 0 | will-australia-beat-india-2024-t20 | 9125.256687145577 | Will Australia beat India? | 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup 🏏 | 1719252918889 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863356819080844 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718886427640 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOhj4OxNOgG.jpg?alt=media&token=437c205e-2571-4d53-8f08-2b03e9107046", "title": null}}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Super Eight Round", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if score is tied (extremely rare), game is abandoned, or there is no result", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 90.19627841996116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719252918889 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719252918889 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719251927455 | 0.02 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | feq4gbq8m5 | {"NO": 485.96866370522565, "YES": 2057.7458480050705} | 0.19104685744725303 | will-there-be-another-manifest-befo | 3356.8352616688408 | Will there be another Manifest before the end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.653018826465647 | False | basic | public | 1718887000477 | Rana G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Derived from Saul suggesting this is plausible here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there's an event after 20 June 2024 and starts before 1 Jan 2025 with all of the following properties:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "more than 50 attendees", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "has the name \"manifest\" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. \"manivibefest\" or \"lessfest\" would count)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.308953142552747} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.621537971725054, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RanaG | 1718984593710 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707449734075 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718984590659 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14lyj93lwe | which-would-you-rather-jn2tlb0eik | 0 | Which would you rather? | 1719525540000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718890343936 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719525540533 | lukres | 1718960114537 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718960113443 | ["o4p0dv8toe"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | lp32u8w56i | {"NO": 64.54039443623032, "YES": 154.94172428525516} | 0.2940576426552984 | -nvidia-to-200-before-the-end-of-20 | 509.60308525027597 | 📈 $NVDA (Nvidia) to $200 before the end of 2024? | 1735660740000 | SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718891530067 | Quadrifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$NVDA stock price touches $200 or goes beyond by December, 31st 2024 -> Resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if stays under or equal $199.99 -> Resolves NO", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current price: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03077400501279276, "month": -0.20594235734470162} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.603888384708048, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Quadrifold | 1720010004634 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692341243629 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720010001545 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | jpeedcm6n1 | {"NO": 1262.1282855590416, "YES": 792.3124863310277} | 0.6143415292512394 | bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-9cezawykwv | 686.0881842263265 | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,700.00 before 5,300.00? | 1720209600000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578767083838247 | False | basic | public | 1718892666257 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,700.00 or 5,300.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-06-20).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,300.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,700.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-vjt56ivlet", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.04038703943974298, "week": 0.15654821858401358, "month": 0.11434152925123942} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.668208775661377, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 109 | 1000 | Lion | 1720206132823 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 12 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720206129694 | 1719652398859 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vxpjpai09i | {"NO": 1040.6161252853879, "YES": 960.9691563502836} | 0.5198959718743581 | bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-vjt56ivlet | 612.1543048071883 | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 6,000.00 before 5,000.00? | 1722456000000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.371928116823412 | False | basic | public | 1718892684573 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 5,000.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-06-20).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.1051554672202345, "month": 0.019895971874358098} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.23865381004974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lion | 1719964800374 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719964797308 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pf8ulm7c4g | {"NO": 101.18184480076599, "YES": 98.83195962369226} | 0.5058743074855147 | is-claude-35-a-distilled-or-quantiz | 11 | Is Claude 3.5 Sonnet a distilled or quantized version of a larger model? | 1735707540000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718893815048 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Sonnet is distilled, quantized, or was made smaller via some other method, such that what 3.5 was distilled/quantized from is a larger (parameter number or similar) model.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must have good evidence one way or the other to resolve.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0058743074855146515} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3715719606937755, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719004347072 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719004344010 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | hcuduw8r9w | {"NO": 197.6938626988051, "YES": 50.583259710169415} | 0.7962629048565897 | will-claude-35-opus-beat-openais-be | 3946.3283756708693 | Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard? | 1735707540000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718894443061 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release). If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "arena.lmsys.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://arena.lmsys.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is not available at the time, the successor site or most similar leaderboard will be used.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Opus is ranked above all OpenAI models 1 week after it is put on the leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.030018516497491543, "month": 0.2962629048565897} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.60277372345807, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719952627078 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719952623842 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kpxwxj31ml | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jimmy-carter-outlive-noam-chom-lrfbujo2yx | 0 | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Noam Chomsky? | 1718894595628 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1718894581483 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718894595628 | 100 | strutheo | 1718894595628 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ynfqik6imd | sunday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t | 510.6427625754512 | Sunday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | 1719201540000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 624rxh5xed | public | 1718894695472 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll 2 dice using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " (two 1-6 random number calls). Whatever they add to will be the resolving number.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May the odds be ever in your favor.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Odds:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 2: 1+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "3:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 2/36 (2 ways to roll a 3: 1+2, 2+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "4: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "3/36 (3 ways to roll a 4: 1+3, 2+2, 3+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "5:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 5: 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "6:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll a 6: 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "7:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 6/36 (6 ways to roll a 7: 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "8:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 5/36 (5 ways to roll an 8: 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "9:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 4/36 (4 ways to roll a 9: 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "10:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 3/36 (3 ways to roll a 10: 4+6, 5+5, 6+4) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "11: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "2/36 (2 ways to roll an 11: 5+6, 6+5) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "12: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "1/36 (1 way to roll a 12: 6+6)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: 2.78% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7: 16.67% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8: 13.89% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9: 11.11% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10: 8.33% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11: 5.56% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "12: 2.78%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", 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0.500000000000001 | w8ebrbr2dn | {"NO": 46.859091656823516, "YES": 213.40575855024565} | 0.18004387307599215 | will-claude-35-sonnet-take-the-1-po | 1229.844997513362 | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet take the #1 position for any period of time in its first month on the LMSYS leaderboard? | 1735707540000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718895220842 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The one month starts as soon as Claude 3.5 Sonnet is put on the leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if for some reason there are multiple models ranked #1.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.09057652825230614, "month": -0.3199561269240079} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.67254106471768, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1720056437865 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720056434185 | 1719261334441 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vddy2d2kt0 | how-many-people-will-be-named-as-be | 1762.421359991518 | UK General Election - Total named in betting scandal investigations? | 1720131820855 | kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | m3iboz80dt | public | 1718896908361 | kevor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is an ongoing scandal in UK politics. Two Conservative general election candidates, and a party official, have been named in the press as being under investigation by the Gambling Commission. They are alleged to have placed bets on the date of the election with inside information. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By the time polls close on election day, how many people total will have been named?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This applies to any Gambling Commission investigation into a regulated bet regarding when the election will be called.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will end, at the latest, when the polls close on election day. So subsequent stories won't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person needs to be named in a mainstream news source as being under investigation. Allegations without a name won't count. 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"probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "z9o952szap", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Loser Punishment", "index": 9, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'loser':1 'punish':2", "contractId": "nv19hjvcde", "createdTime": 1718899204149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cjesp4ux1t", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Aim to turn into a Dynasty League", "index": 10, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'aim':1 'dynasti':6 'leagu':7 'turn':3", "contractId": "nv19hjvcde", "createdTime": 1718899204149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | 0.25 | 1718906191232 | 1718900621725 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 69z8sgh8d7 | {"NO": 405.8736224422363, "YES": 24.638211125491864} | 0.9427699561210418 | will-the-fifth-major-model-iteratio | 310 | Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)? | 1767308340000 | lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718900649676 | Peter 1169 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sam Altman has suggested that \"GPT-Next\" may not be called GPT-5 at all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A GPT-4.5 or any other model prior to \"GPT-Next\" won't count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the fifth major iteration.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If \"GPT-5\" includes multiple models, as long as at least one meets the YES criteria, it resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve when \"GPT-Next\" from OpenAI is released and accessible via API. Even if the official name is known prior to release, it won't be resolved before.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A release here means \"accessible to some users outside of OpenAI with no waitlist and no special criteria to be chosen\" (e.g., general rollout).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official model name (as in the API) contains the string \"GPT-5\" (case insensitive) explicitly. So, something like \"GPT-5\" or \"GPT-5-Supernova\" is YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as NO:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The YES criteria are not met. So, something like \"GPT-Supernova-5\" or \"Eucalypt\" is NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI doesn't release \"GPT-Next\" before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI dissolves (rebranding with another name doesn't count).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OP Trading:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.44276995612104175} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.126377557763717, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Peter1169 | 1719352259669 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707660435691 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719352256589 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4970930647110746 | mq1juiqhez | {"NO": 76.63456920792807, "YES": 135.98616895798665} | 0.35775239731235 | will-robert-f-kennedy-suspend-his-c | 35 | Will Robert F Kennedy suspend his campaign before the first 2024 electoral votes are cast? | 1733115540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718900800391 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.14224760268765002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0138310420133534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719025094911 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718957143300 | 1719025093137 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vqkrxvuslo | {"NO": 29.55609510799955, "YES": 338.33968809003545} | 0.08033822744874944 | will-noam-chomsky-outlive-joe-biden | 307.82039804110354 | Will Noam Chomsky outlive Joe Biden? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718900963857 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01271867806780659, "month": -0.4196617725512506} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8399138688610055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719894479049 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719894475869 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46685241196642147 | 2xmoy6aoqz | {"NO": 12.809539784587855, "YES": 923.3819277721427} | 0 | will-robert-f-kennedy-suspend-his-c-k92hxvggky | 887.3337075100209 | Will Robert F Kennedy suspend his campaign before Joe Biden and Donald Trump debate? | 1719544640184 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718901068773 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.478546730820032, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719544640184 | 102 | strutheo | 1719544640184 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719324202751 | 1719025054797 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 5bmgxr8q4s | {"NO": 883.1553987871732, "YES": 1132.3035576448808} | 0.43819071381667557 | will-harvard-make-an-official-state | 9284.437408762193 | Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25? | 1751083140000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572731772363554 | False | basic | public | 1718901219633 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They said they won't: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/micsolana/status/1795827718661320840", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/micsolana/status/1795827718661320840", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will they?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if any commenter links to such a statement, or if I otherwise find one. Statement must be made on or after 6/20/24. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if no such statement is identified by 6/28/25.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use best judgment to decide if a given statement counts.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06180928618332443} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 187.98867596492335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719531550057 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 40 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719531546989 | 1719264938861 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 1tjqv8vl8e | {"NO": 234.09673783303373, "YES": 4271.73829612797} | 0 | will-donald-trump-overcome-a-muted | 11612.085891205665 | Will Donald Trump overcome a muted microphone at the first debate? | 1719550740000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.90432405774418 | True | basic | NO | public | 1718901401566 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first presidential debate, currently scheduled for June 27, will mute the candidates' microphones unless they are answering a question:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump manages to communicate an explicit message even though his microphone is muted. He must intend to communicate a specific message (even if that message is inarticulate) and the viewing audience, not just the moderators, must be able to perceive it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some examples of things that would qualify:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shouting loudly enough for the viewers to hear him ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holding up a legible sign, cartoon, or doodle that communicates an idea", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holding up two fingers to indicate the number two ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Continuing to speak after his time has elapsed and the moderators have muted him (edit: bearing in mind, as stated above, that he must be audible to the viewers; this is broken out separately to distinguish it from the last bullet point below, in which he goes over time but is not muted)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some examples of things that would not qualify:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shouting inarticulate noises, even if loudly enough to be heard", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holding up a scribble that is impossible to objectively decipher ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holding up one finger (you know which one) to indicate frustration or disgust", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going over time, as long as the moderators don't mute him (note that this includes him ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "briefly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " finishing a thought or sentence he began before he was muted, even if the continuation is audible despite being muted)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: Shaking or nodding his head to indicate generalized disagreement or agreement with what someone else is saying", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market, and will do my best to resolve it objectively and fairly.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "EDIT: In response to a very good question, common body language will probably NOT satisfy this question. For example, if Trump shakes his head to indicate disagreement with a question before (or instead of) answering it out loud. The spirit of the question requires that he be overcoming the muting of the microphones in some way; head-shaking, frowning, wincing, and similar gestures are not enough.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 257.4091819809402, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719594297467 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1719550740000 | 0 | 73 | 23 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719546509916 | 1719551569726 | 0.05 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | on7hsgns6q | {"NO": 1715.7537951846443, "YES": 582.8342054708278} | 0.746438158858993 | will-anna-van-der-breggen-win-anoth | 827 | Will Anna van der Breggen win another professional UCI Road cycling race by the end of the 2026 season? | 1793599140000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61616088909403 | False | basic | public | 1718902288468 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be .1 or above. A one-day, stage, or GC. Nationals, Europeans, Worlds, Olympics all count too for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No at the conclusion of the 2026 UCI season if she hasn't done a win. Resolves Yes promptly when she wins something.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.246438158858993} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.95040842770386, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Eliza | 1719346055302 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719005504093 | 1719346053243 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7g8qxe3qya | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-th-y5g0lkss23 | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort The Doctor (10th) into? (Dr Who) | 1721534340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1718903144538 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r", "label": "/strutheo/which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1718903144564 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49901476613065243 | 2oeah2ixrb | {"NO": 35.659880317530764, "YES": 292.912783185928} | 0.10814896060601832 | will-donald-trump-and-joe-biden-sha | 549.6664427840966 | Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands three or more times in the year 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718903250390 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current total: 0", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01824501297182042, "month": -0.3918510393939817} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.496540822242984, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719686192437 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719686188842 | 1719547109574 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | hp3ey8yhhe | {"NO": 58.65839087307752, "YES": 170.47859396002806} | 0.25599704436977727 | will-the-any-nations-military-budge | 85 | Will any nation's military budget be used to train an AI system that consistently beats GPT-4's SAT scores by 2026? | 1767311940000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718903971331 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 test performances for context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw6ApIw19Fh.png?alt=media&token=81f8216c-c9ff-4849-8836-ab3d0d1027c8", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://medium.com/@koki_noda/unveiling-the-ultimate-language-model-who-reigns-supreme-c6ce9f034ecc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://medium.com/@koki_noda/unveiling-the-ultimate-language-model-who-reigns-supreme-c6ce9f034ecc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0492565438917521, "week": -0.0492565438917521, "month": -0.24400295563022273} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.199239686158462, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20 | 100 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1720198463103 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720198460011 | 1718904998085 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000004 | yclj2kys26 | {"NO": 369.48017037837934, "YES": 27.065051934341028} | 1 | will-mclaren-score-at-least-2nd-pla | 310 | Will McLaren score at least 2nd place at the Formula 1 Spanish GP? | 1719188394422 | 7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718905157599 | Sai Vázquez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if McLaren finishes 1st or 2nd place at the Formula 1 Spanish GP.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.903274282628724, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719188394422 | 100 | SaiVazquez | 1719188394422 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668204070480 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719153425020 | 0.93 | 7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8dwc6fdkgp | {"NO": 167.9987383545954, "YES": 59.524256538718646} | 1 | will-mclaren-finish-1st-or-2nd-plac | 158.965403711478 | Will McLaren finish 1st or 2nd place in succession until June ends? | 1719786145526 | 7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1718905596489 | Sai Vázquez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the Chinese GP, McLaren has consistently scored 2nd place (or finish 1st in the Miami GP), this market will resolve YES if McLaren finishes 2nd or 1st in the remaining 2 Grand Prix until June ends.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2024/races.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2024/races.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.26161864020219006, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.700434485046367, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719786145526 | 100 | SaiVazquez | 1719786145526 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668204070480 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719472310547 | 1718906890331 | 0.74 | 7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | wu8b3splyw | {"NO": 88.83277433671338, "YES": 112.57106484253} | 0.44106792948298695 | will-sheng-thao-be-the-mayor-of-oak | 55.81949676291326 | Will Sheng Thao be the Mayor of Oakland on January 31, 2025? | 1738396740000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718906535569 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She is facing a recall and her house was just raided by the FBI.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.08332268233246043, "month": -0.05893207051701305} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.609438394556722, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KevinBurke | 1719812081078 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719812077938 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1oypw0ga3m | {"NO": 51.33154793719844, "YES": 194.81197045205988} | 0.20854316324519778 | will-the-chinese-government-formall | 97 | Will the Chinese Government formally resume negotiation talks with Tibet before the end of 2028? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718906802757 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-dalai-lama-must-thoroughly-correct-his-political-views-2024-06-20/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-dalai-lama-must-thoroughly-correct-his-political-views-2024-06-20/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdRAQwbfiw7.png?alt=media&token=d693338b-c389-4ed7-802b-cbeaa1e6ac8a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2914568367548022} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1880295479401166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719009231652 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719009228611 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000014 | pywxs42faf | {"NO": 3644.957377763445, "YES": 274.3516305843897} | 1 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1119 | 9161.38715736577 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1119 of One Piece on June 27th? | 1719511748333 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.848203770647213 | True | basic | YES | public | 1718906982795 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for June 20th If they release chapter 1118 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB Scans ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "usually", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1118, 1117, 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I’d put the info here for investors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not answer my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.99317232511363, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719511752090 | 1000 | dwax | 1719524255569 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719494921015 | 1719524253395 | 0.93 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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dnqzns7hdt | ai-for-ai-1-by-when-will-there-be-a | 3975.2925838195088 | AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering? | 1862035140000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718908234934 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Options are inclusive: if this happens tomorrow then all options resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will of course resolve somewhat subjectively. The overall idea is \"there is a model that I can use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "instead", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of hiring an intern\". 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