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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish on the podium in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 7, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Three answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish on the podium, because that answer can only be chosen once.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " In resolving any questions about unforeseen circumstances, weight will be placed on which drivers if any appear on the actual podium after the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the top 6 places in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 7, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Six answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish in the top six, or fewer than six drivers finish the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix?
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the points in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 7, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Ten answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish in the top ten, or fewer than ten drivers score points.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must finish in the points in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on July 21, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Ten answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple \"Other/The Field\" drivers finish in the top ten, or fewer than ten drivers score points.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Volume 38 start to be available (in Japan)? The physical volume needs to be purchasable in Japan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next volume usually coincides with a comeback from hiatus (probably to boost sales). So volume 38 will release around when the next chapter (401) is published. Unless things completely change.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,700.00 or 5,300.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-06-20).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,300.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,700.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-vjt56ivlet", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b", "frameBorder": 0}}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 5,000.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-06-20).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b", "frameBorder": 0}}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release). If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "arena.lmsys.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://arena.lmsys.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is not available at the time, the successor site or most similar leaderboard will be used.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Opus is ranked above all OpenAI models 1 week after it is put on the leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The one month starts as soon as Claude 3.5 Sonnet is put on the leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if for some reason there are multiple models ranked #1.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is an ongoing scandal in UK politics. Two Conservative general election candidates, and a party official, have been named in the press as being under investigation by the Gambling Commission. They are alleged to have placed bets on the date of the election with inside information. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By the time polls close on election day, how many people total will have been named?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This applies to any Gambling Commission investigation into a regulated bet regarding when the election will be called.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will end, at the latest, when the polls close on election day. So subsequent stories won't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person needs to be named in a mainstream news source as being under investigation. Allegations without a name won't count. (As far as I can see, the police officer hasn't been named yet, despite being arrested, so they don't count as of 20 June.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they are cleared of wrongdoing or the reporting is incorrect before the GE, they still count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The individuals can be anyone: candidates, party officials, family or anyone else.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the afternoon of 20 June, the current count is three. So this question cannot resolve any lower than that.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sam Altman has suggested that \"GPT-Next\" may not be called GPT-5 at all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A GPT-4.5 or any other model prior to \"GPT-Next\" won't count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the fifth major iteration.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If \"GPT-5\" includes multiple models, as long as at least one meets the YES criteria, it resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve when \"GPT-Next\" from OpenAI is released and accessible via API. Even if the official name is known prior to release, it won't be resolved before.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A release here means \"accessible to some users outside of OpenAI with no waitlist and no special criteria to be chosen\" (e.g., general rollout).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official model name (as in the API) contains the string \"GPT-5\" (case insensitive) explicitly. So, something like \"GPT-5\" or \"GPT-5-Supernova\" is YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as NO:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The YES criteria are not met. So, something like \"GPT-Supernova-5\" or \"Eucalypt\" is NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI doesn't release \"GPT-Next\" before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI dissolves (rebranding with another name doesn't count).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OP Trading:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
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