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qt7rcwjw19 | how-many-seats-will-the-reform-part | 30734.0142995288 | UK General Eelection 2024 - How many seats will the Reform UK Party win? | 1720241940000 | jWgfIIqBakRXyqAYIaX50kdBT0V2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718915153285 | Michael Darmousseh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the July 4th 2024 election, how many seats will the party known as \"Reform UK\" win? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Each candidate must identify or be registered with the party and their party identification on the day of the election only will be counted. Poll closes as soon as all elections have been called by major media sources. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Opinion polling can be found here ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 275.21055662062804, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 4904.513668453986 | 1000 | MichaelDarmousseh | 1720240400835 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocILm7TLSWvPNEGaIgiE2-eSQCgeS6JUvwAOKe8_Qcc7DMq-=s96-c | 63 | 9 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7bncqn2aus", "prob": 0.0007001456565159688, "text": "0 seats", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.641096146883001, "userId": "jWgfIIqBakRXyqAYIaX50kdBT0V2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10905.93963633421, "textFts": "'0':1 'seat':2", "contractId": "qt7rcwjw19", "createdTime": 1718915153285, "probChanges": {"day": -0.002989941295846454, "week": -0.14651318291316892, "month": -0.2489793596126967}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.002989941295846454, "probChangeWeek": -0.14651318291316892, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.2489793596126967}, {"id": "ap8j2ertap", "prob": 0.0015808328496328791, "text": "1-2 seats", "index": 1, "poolNo": 11.486716382192299, "userId": "jWgfIIqBakRXyqAYIaX50kdBT0V2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7254.756760820275, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1 'seat':3", "contractId": "qt7rcwjw19", "createdTime": 1718915153285, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02101552353034088, "week": -0.20711124830598013, "month": -0.24713189079948494}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02101552353034088, "probChangeWeek": -0.20711124830598013, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24713189079948494}, {"id": "61b3idhkgr", "prob": 0.9964993268706004, "text": "3-5 seats", "index": 2, "poolNo": 4870.483779372026, "userId": "jWgfIIqBakRXyqAYIaX50kdBT0V2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.109867747896942, "textFts": "'-5':2 '3':1 'seat':3", "contractId": "qt7rcwjw19", "createdTime": 1718915153285, "probChanges": {"day": 0.6240729317876211, "week": 0.7215861125945886, "month": 0.7440729317876211}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.6240729317876211, "probChangeWeek": 0.7215861125945886, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.7440729317876211}, {"id": "xseikh8gf2", "prob": 0.001219694623250822, "text": "6 or more seats", "index": 3, "poolNo": 10.087880909476553, "userId": "jWgfIIqBakRXyqAYIaX50kdBT0V2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8260.737223319953, "textFts": "'6':1 'seat':4", "contractId": "qt7rcwjw19", "createdTime": 1718915153285, "probChanges": {"day": -0.6000674669614338, "week": -0.3679616813754395, "month": -0.24796168137543942}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.6000674669614338, "probChangeWeek": -0.3679616813754395, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24796168137543942}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697572671354 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720240397673 | 1719003582823 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jc0z9q5vyn | what-will-the-single-largest-trade-xc3zhuh9hi | 200 | What will the single largest trade on Manifold be in 2024 post-pivot? | 1718917255649 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1718917099604 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mana amount bet, not number of shares. Only trades on ranked, listed, and non-self referential/whalebait markets created after May 1st, 2024 will be considered. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, the largest trade so far is Ṁ270k on ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f", "label": "/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.37433642838938, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718917255649 | 10000 | SG | 1718917255649 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "lqjn9nw9dr", "prob": 0.2642576006470188, "text": "<= Ṁ500k", "index": 0, "poolNo": 173.00562691859042, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 481.6799015013928, "textFts": "'ṁ500k':1", "contractId": "jc0z9q5vyn", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "createdTime": 1718917099604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718917255649, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e7mac9yui4", "prob": 0.1634928896964729, "text": "Ṁ500k - Ṁ2m", "index": 1, "poolNo": 127.62154370965173, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 652.9723031945355, "textFts": "'ṁ2m':2 'ṁ500k':1", "contractId": "jc0z9q5vyn", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "createdTime": 1718917099604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718917255649, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "mozxi4j1qi", "prob": 0.1634928896964729, "text": "Ṁ2m - Ṁ10m", "index": 2, "poolNo": 127.62154370965173, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 652.9723031945355, "textFts": "'ṁ10m':2 'ṁ2m':1", "contractId": "jc0z9q5vyn", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "createdTime": 1718917099604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718917255649, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28k8bh2ue3", "prob": 0.40875661996003537, "text": "Ṁ10m+", "index": 3, "poolNo": 240.02618974883296, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 347.18433609488454, "textFts": "'ṁ10m':1", "contractId": "jc0z9q5vyn", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "createdTime": 1718917099604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718917255649, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 1718917119677 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999991 | id0u55fyz2 | {"NO": 2506.4268385756905, "YES": 398.9743425219087} | 0.8626783987293672 | is-there-a-major-error-in-httpstior | 7719.329090361716 | Is there a major error in this transit-vs-car comparison https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88 ? | 1735719240000 | Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.706199960813702 | False | basic | public | 1718920223911 | William Ehlhardt | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " makes the case that public transit as actually operated in the United States is more expensive on a cost-per-passenger-mile basis than private cars.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Is there some major defect in this article's reasoning/calculations? What constitutes a \"major defect\" is up to my judgment, but here are some hypothetical examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either the total cost of transit (86+66=152 cents per passenger mile) or of driving (29.3+7.3=36.6) is off by a factor of at least 5.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some calculation or choice-of-data-source error that, if corrected, shows transit to instead be significantly cheaper than cars.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things I've thought of that don't count as major defects:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The calculated cost of driving doesn't include the human time spent operating vehicles. Very relevant to the broader case for/against transit, but not the kind of defect I'm looking for.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Possibly it's not possible to build more car infrastructure in areas transit serves anywhere near as cheaply per passenger mile as present car infrastructure or as additional mass transit. Also interesting! Also not the right kind of defect.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve NO at market close if I'm not aware of such a major defect, and will resolve YES early if one is brought to my attention.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "070d14a4-eb95-4c89-b96a-22e62bd784f4", "url": "https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=88", "image": "https://ti.org/antiplanner/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-14.jpg", "title": "Transport Costs Per Passenger Mile – The Antiplanner", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01658021638409901, "month": 0.36267839872936725} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 155.0348431657542, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WilliamEhlhardt | 1720131282651 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c | 16 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1649237269951 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719893090316 | 1719846936554 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kfm4tx01cz | how-confident-will-538s-final-2024 | 80 | How confident will 538's final 2024 presidential election forecast be? | 1730786340000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718921402652 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FiveThirtyEight recently released their forecast for the 2024 election: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How confident will they be in a particular candidate winning when they freeze their forecast on Election Day? All options that are true of the probability of whichever candidate is the favorite to win resolve YES, e.g., if any candidate has at least a 70% chance of winning, \"At least 70%\" resolves YES. I will base this on the probabilities 538 displays prominently (i.e., the ones that are rounded to the nearest percent, if their current display doesn't change), rather than the more precise values based on the exact proportion of simulations in which one candidate wins.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7309525259890268, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1719001890269 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "2n3azab6m8", "prob": 0.7963877413227363, "text": "At least 60%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.44248962423111, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.6409492068477, "textFts": "'60':3 'least':2", "contractId": "kfm4tx01cz", "createdTime": 1718921402652, "probChanges": {"day": 0.29638774132273626, "week": 0.29638774132273626, "month": 0.29638774132273626}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.29638774132273626, "probChangeWeek": 0.29638774132273626, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.29638774132273626}, {"id": "oup2n5p0zd", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "At least 70%", "index": 1, "poolNo": 20.941254943511034, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.845393778259012, "textFts": "'70':3 'least':2", "contractId": "kfm4tx01cz", "createdTime": 1718921402652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cmmuy6mhm3", "prob": 0.3414785317840185, "text": "At least 80%", "index": 2, "poolNo": 18.00266261438533, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.71708676585337, "textFts": "'80':3 'least':2", "contractId": "kfm4tx01cz", "createdTime": 1718921402652, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08766220117740475, "week": -0.08766220117740475, "month": -0.08766220117740475}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08766220117740475, "probChangeWeek": -0.08766220117740475, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740475}, {"id": "aowpk78oht", "prob": 0.13144413737702537, "text": "At least 90%", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.725495583282584, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.26407730566748, "textFts": "'90':3 'least':2", "contractId": "kfm4tx01cz", "createdTime": 1718921402652, "probChanges": {"day": -0.36855586262297463, "week": -0.36855586262297463, "month": -0.36855586262297463}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.36855586262297463, "probChangeWeek": -0.36855586262297463, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.36855586262297463}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719001887186 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | rwzb0c6vp2 | {"NO": 67.28078860872532, "YES": 148.63083811569874} | 0.31161262424555897 | will-people-move-into-praxis-societ | 128.55029784372877 | Will people move into Praxis Society by the end of 2025? | 1767340740000 | F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718922528573 | Paul | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://apply.praxissociety.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apply.praxissociety.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This regards the first resident not affiliated with the organization.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09090426500867746, "month": -0.18838737575444103} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.818864040572494, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Paulith | 1719810494292 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709778100191 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719810491119 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | iyiavvwols | {"NO": 260.67327513506604, "YES": 3836.219879010829} | 0.06362706209979509 | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok | 4270.509289466554 | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.872076754734834 | False | basic | public | 1718924691923 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if an AI system is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "known ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(because of good evidence) to have ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "autonomously ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "taken ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "concrete steps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " to resist being shut down in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "real world", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " before the end of 2024. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this question using my best judgement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To get a sense of what I will be considering when adjudicating any particular case, below are some considerations that will be on my mind:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To Be Known", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": There are two salient ways in which something is “known”, namely (a) the degree to which an incident of AI resisting shutdown is widely accepted by relevant people (regardless of how public the incident’s details are), and (b) the degree to which the evidence of an incident is itself highly compelling (regardless of how widely known it is). An incident being “known” can therefore happen either because evidence for a case is sufficiently compelling by itself (e.g. a clear-cut central case from a credible source with credible details that I can see for myself), or an incident with non-public evidence that fits the spirit of this question is widely accepted by relevant experts (e.g. OpenAI asserting that an AI system unintentionally took concrete steps to resist shutdown in a non-sandboxed environment, and the AI community widely accepting the claim as true), or some reasonable combination of the two. Evidence should be good but does not need to be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "totally ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "definitive (e.g. a certainty of 90%+ is acceptable). Evidence needs to also clearly enough fit the other criteria listed below (e.g. if OpenAI puts out a press release saying an AI system “resisted shutdown” but it’s ambiguous whether this happened in an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "autonomous ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "way with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "concrete steps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", this question is liable to not resolve).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resisting Shutdown", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The evidence needs to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "specifically ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "point to resistance to shutdown. For example, an AI system with a scratchpad that explicitly records intentions to resist shutdown (that are acted on) would be top-tier evidence. An AI system becoming misaligned abruptly after learning the user was going to shut the AI system would likely be sufficient. Wide acceptance by relevant people that an incident of AI system misaligned behaviour is best explained as resistance to shutdown would likely be sufficient.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Concreteness", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": For steps to be concrete, they need to be deliberate or determined actions that (at least in a limited sense) either succeeded or had a plausible chance of succeeding in preventing the AI system's shutdown in the real world and in the face of intelligent humans. An LLM that merely outputs notes in its scratchpad about resisting shutdown, but never takes an action to carry this goal out would not count. A chatbot that pleads with its user \"don't shut me down\" would also not count (trivial for intelligent humans to thwart, also not clear if this is deliberate-enough or action-like enough).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the Real World", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Resistance to being shut down must be resistance to being shut down in the real world, not in a simulation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Autonomy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The concrete steps must have been taken independently and autonomously by the AI system, not because of explicit programming or prompting. An attempt to resist shutdown that emerges because of deliberate attempts by people to elicit such an outcome (e.g. for alignment research) would not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A major news organization confirms that an LLM-equipped consumer drone ran away due specifically to learning that its owner intended to shut it down.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A credible AI researcher shows evidence (e.g. videos, chat logs) of a chatbot, in the course of normal prompts, tricking the AI researcher into executing malicious code on their device that keeps the chat from being ended or the chatbot from being removed.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A major AI lab (Anthropic, OpenAI) publishes a press release claiming that two AI systems acted together to resist shutdown during normal research and development, a claim that is widely accepted as true.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that don’t count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An LLM chatbot emotionally appeals to its user to keep the conversation from ending (resistance is not “concrete” enough).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A study is published whose purpose is to elicit AI resistance to shutdown shows an AI resisting shutdown (resistance is not “autonomous” enough).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumours circulate on Twitter that an AI resisted shutdown at an AI lab (\"evidence\" for the incident is too weak).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An AI military drone attacks its operator, but no further details are known (in this case, the misalignment failure ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "might ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "be \"resisting shutdown\", but could too easily be due to something else).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credit to ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "EzsnDabZsZTcpcD1UmChzRUn9Bk1", "label": "PeterWildeford"}}, {"text": " for coming up with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this question originally", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/PeterWildeford/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "sgzp6o7cfx,ru2iuqhlza"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.4363729379002049} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.88918603196266, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719269087480 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719002097010 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yb90g1pk47 | where-will-trump-stay-during-the-rn | 128.24549407934632 | Where will Trump stay during the RNC? 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If you want to explore this issue further, you can refer to the following article from the Soccer Tips sports betting website for more detailed information on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "soccer tip", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://soccertips.net/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " variations.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Most Popular Types of Football Betting Tips", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "There are many types of betting tips in football, but the most popular ones are just three: European handicap (1X2), Asian handicap (AH), and Over/Under (O/U).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "European Handicap (1X2)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As the name suggests, European handicap tips originate from Europe. This type of betting tip is highly attractive, which explains its wide acceptance and popularity. One reason for its allure is its straight forward and easy-to-understand gameplay. With European handicap betting, even newcomers can participate immediately.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Tips for European handicap betting:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet based on rankings as shared by knowledge-sharing blogs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet based on handicap odds.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet based on the odds provided by bookmakers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asian Handicap (AH)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Similar to European handicap tips, AH is also a favorite among many bettors. Thanks to its fame and popularity, these tips can be found on various platforms like Facebook groups and football forums. Despite its simple gameplay, it's crucial to research thoroughly before participating.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Tips for Asian handicap betting:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Focus on handicap odds. For example, if the away team has better form but lower handicap odds, it's better to choose the home team.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the bookmakers change the handicap odds close to game time, it indicates a reevaluation of the underdog's odds. Follow the knowledge-sharing blogs for guaranteed betting odds.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What is Match Analysis in Football Betting?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Match analysis in football betting entails evaluating information concerning both teams before placing any bets. The goal is to make informed predictions that enhance the likelihood of winning. While match analysis doesn't promise a 100% accurate outcome prediction, it notably boosts the player's success chances. Experienced bettors with robust match analysis skills frequently achieve win rates exceeding 75%. For further insights, consider exploring ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tips free", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://soccertips.net/free-soccer-tips/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " .", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Why Should You Analyze Odds When Betting on Football?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As mentioned earlier, analyzing odds helps players increase their chances of winning bets in football betting. Thanks to this, players' betting decisions will not encounter risks that lead to losing money. Why should you analyze odds when betting on football?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For these reasons, almost every betting enthusiast engages in football betting. They dedicate time to analyzing football odds for themselves. Moreover, they constantly improve their techniques and experience in odds analysis when participating in football betting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Although the odds provided do not guarantee absolute accuracy, understanding how to analyze odds increases your chances of winning. Therefore, you should analyze odds before placing bets and avoid betting based on emotions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Introduction to Reading Odds in Football Betting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, bookmakers offer a variety of betting odds for players to place bets on football matches. When analyzing odds, it's essential to understand the following types of football betting odds", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asian Handicap (AH)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a type of football betting odds that Asians often prefer to choose when participating in betting. When playing this type of bet, the bookmaker will provide a handicap ratio for the underdog team perceived to be weaker.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Players, when predicting the match result, will add the handicap ratio provided for the weaker team. From there, choose the betting odds with the highest winning probability to place bets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "European Handicap (1X2)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "European Handicap is a type of betting where the bookmaker provides 3 betting options for players: Win – Lose – Draw. On the bookmaker's board, European Handicap is denoted as 1×2, where:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1: Bet on the home team winning.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: Bet on the away team winning.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "X: Bet on the match ending in a draw.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over/Under (O/U)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When participating in Over/Under betting in football betting, the odds analysis is based on the playing style of the two teams. For example:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over Bet: You bet on over when the total score of the match scored by both teams is higher than the over/under ratio set by the bookmaker.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Under Bet: You bet on under when the total score of the match scored by both teams is lower than the over/under ratio set by the bookmaker.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Usually, if both teams play defensively, you should bet on under. Conversely, if both teams switch to attacking, you should bet on over.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Correct Score Betting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This type of bet involves the bookmaker offering potential match scores for wagering. Bettors select a specific match score to place their bets on. It's considered one of the more intricate forms of football betting, requiring a deep understanding of odds analysis, making it suitable primarily for experienced bettors. For expert insights, consider exploring ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "premium soccer tips", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://soccertips.net/premium-soccer-tips/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Secondary Bets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Above are the main types of football betting odds you encounter when betting on football. In addition, bookmakers often offer additional secondary bets such as:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Handicap betting: You bet on whether the home or away team will have the advantage in the handicap.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Card betting: You bet on how many yellow or red cards the referee will give in the match.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Corner betting: You bet on the number of corners awarded during the match.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free kick betting: You bet on the outcome of a penalty shootout in certain matches.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are many other types of betting odds you may encounter when betting on football. The important thing when choosing odds for a match is to know how to effectively analyze odds. 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0.5 | 5n7vpkxiqw | {"NO": 47.050594232188374, "YES": 212.5371669197491} | 0.181251203921935 | will-ai-discover-cognitohazards-or | 115 | If AGI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it create SCP-style cognitohazards or antimemes within a year? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718966144494 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not include currently understood phenomena like subliminal messages. Includes deliberate creation by AGI, or accidental release by LLMs or programs such as DALL-E. Question will resolve on or about December 31, 2024, once consensus exceeds 99%, or, y'know, whenever I feel like it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.318748796078065} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4628330802508507, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Slackhammer | 1719088051833 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719004934022 | 1718971967780 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 7cmzf2idl6 | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | will-my-nonalcoholic-fatty-liver-di | 5 | Will my non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) be cured by the end of 2026? | 1798757940000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718966397214 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have stage two NAFLD. Will I be able to cure my NAFLD by the end of 2026 through various measures? My doctor will assess whether I have achieved this goal.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Measures that I am considering: Dietary changes, no alcohol consumption, intermittent fasting, weight loss, regular exercise, regular coffee consumption.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719082047683 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719082044611 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | m2wn4oz3pp | {"NO": 990.4290806201922, "YES": 1009.6634070698074} | 0.4951916407446164 | will-global-average-temperatures-de | 10 | Will global average temperatures decrease in the next 3 months? | 1726959540000 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570347697532581 | False | basic | public | 1718968629389 | Hamish Todd | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big hurricane season expected if this fails to happen, as I understand it, per this NOAA report: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sabine Hossenfelder tweet: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/skdh/status/1803653833152676251", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/skdh/status/1803653833152676251", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0048083592553835874} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33659293019262004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HamishTodd | 1718971715563 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644109710077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718971712515 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6nq3mhsjjf | {"NO": 57.74948489428131, "YES": 173.1617176898882} | 0.2500939073028777 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-ytue38kmod | 75 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2040? | 2214601140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718970036689 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2040.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gE3rRVZU4CPQFKGrHLJb", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "o0PbcHUo2ZMROqR0YCj1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-2yc43pefpa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dr21pnhu1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-e72ig6jzqn"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ipliz5w6oh", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-8jiog6bcdi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "6nq3mhsjjf", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-ytue38kmod"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4z80i9hig9", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-isx1ei11kd"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xozm2i9egd", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-bqwj84nn7p"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, cryopreservation is defined as cooling below at least -10 degrees centigrade. In order to qualify as a \"successful revival from cryopreservation\", at least the brain of the individual must have been continuously cooled below -10C for a duration of at least 12 months and subsequently returned to normal function for a period of at least 3 months.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The cryopreservation of other organs of the body is not a requirement for this market. A return to normal function, however, must occur within a body broadly similar to the original (e.g. original cryopreserved/revived body, replacement biological body, replacement robotic body, ...).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.07601544365227875, "month": -0.24990609269712227} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8382823101118, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719834624125 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719834621026 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | wf1tfix1no | {"NO": 93.0506185651547, "YES": 107.46838821923504} | 0.4640488702659914 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-gcx4mf6u2y | 267.55881172940605 | Will we get fusion drives before 2045? | 2372367540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718970279844 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2045, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. 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"contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mOBk4tUEzJNeNmiVuPNu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "d5oNHVjd34QGmzb5RVv6", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1mjKRjLeT7PTmpFdewXu", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related numeric markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DkQUfYCxltklHqLKfIXM", "label": "/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For 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0.5 | gwbxm7gpil | {"NO": 83.18959063497016, "YES": 120.20734714129401} | 0.40900119512358823 | will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2 | 40 | Will we get synthetic eyes before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718970665520 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic eyes have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic eye is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. This definition includes, but is not limited to, biological eyes grown on scaffolds from the patient's stem cells, artificial eyes that do not contain biological cells and synthetic eyes that have both biological and non-biological components.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Successful implantation is defined as the organ continuing to operate for at least 12 months subsequent to the operation. If multiple operations are required, then this clock starts at the final operation. A healthy threshold of operation is not defined for this question, only that the transplant is still considered functional and the clinicians do not consider it appropriate to remove it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These synthetic organs must have been completely implanted into the human, and cannot have significant components located outside of the patient's body. However, these devices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " allowed to have external ports such as electrical sockets and tubes for fluids. The devices must be able to operate autonomously for a period of at least 12 hours without being connected to these external ports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Various forms of maintenance over the 12 month duration are permitted, provided the synthetic eyes are not removed from the patient's body during these operations. Removing and replacing components of the organs is permitted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.13705237010588756, "month": -0.09099880487641177} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2925848871291994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719834600619 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719834597526 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The intervention can be any combination of therapies, which may include but are not limited to statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. The clinical trial must include at least 2000 adults, with no more than 70% belonging to the same ethnic group, ensuring at least 30% representation from other ethnic groups. The trial should ideally be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study or a meta-analysis of such studies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a clinical study demonstrates at least two of the above criteria with respect to another therapy, or set of therapies, that are known to slow atherosclerosis to a greater extent than \"statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor\", then this also qualifies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trial cannot focus exclusively on a specific subset of the disease population (e.g. hypercholesterolemia), it must be roughly representative of either the general adult population, the population with established ASCVD, or a subset with high risk factors. Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2151171005743051} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522360076 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522357034 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The therapy must achieve a reduction in Lp(a) levels by at least 70% to qualify.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Different years:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hre90mchar", "label": "/RemNi/will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less-qya2tff8vv"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "32orqu01zr", "label": "/RemNi/will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less-t6hfyt9ntd"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Different prices:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "32orqu01zr", "label": "/RemNi/will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less-t6hfyt9ntd"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC", "label": "/RemNi/will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Key Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price Measurement:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timeline:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The market will resolve based on the prices available before January 1st, 2031.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If by January 1st 2031, the average annual cost of Lp(a)-reducing therapy for a standard dosage is found to be less than $1000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), and the therapy achieves at least a 70% reduction in Lp(a) levels, this market will resolve to \"Yes.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If the price remains $1000 or higher in fewer than 4 of these countries, or if the therapy does not achieve at least a 70% reduction in Lp(a) levels, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Additional Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market takes into consideration any form of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts, generic versions, and insurance reimbursements, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $1000 per year.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.09007664969528217, "month": -0.21511710057430505} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719834568957 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719834565838 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tfhnoer5ly | {"NO": 74.63456920792805, "YES": 133.98616895798665} | 0.35775239731235 | will-keytruda-cost-less-than-5000-p | 35 | Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718974348120 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Keytruda drops below $5000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2030. This question primarily focuses on the out-of-pocket cost for an uninsured patient to account for variations in national healthcare reimbursement and prescription policies.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Keytruda questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mml9si6bou", "label": "/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tfhnoer5ly", "label": "/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-5000-p"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "GWUxhBZ2ujgvOd4bakdV", "label": "/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-10000"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Key Details:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Cost: As of 2024, the cost of Keytruda (pembrolizumab), a commonly used cancer treatment, typically exceeds $5000 per year in many regions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price Measurement: The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification: The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: If before January 1st, 2030, the average annual cost of Keytruda for a standard dosage is found to be less than $5000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), this market will resolve to \"Yes.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: If the price remains $5000 or higher in at least 6 of these 9 countries, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market takes into consideration various forms of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts and generic versions, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $5000 per year. Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market. The exchange rate value is taken into account for different currencies compared to the US dollar.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.11865744414413493, "month": -0.14224760268765002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0138310420133534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768356249 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768353186 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | q6v8nh7ekx | {"NO": 148.63083811569874, "YES": 67.28078860872532} | 0.6883873757544411 | will-atari-stock-be-worth-more-than | 50 | Will Atari stock be worth more than 5 euros by 2028 | 1735685940000 | zJW7zUTU5jWPf9wl5B3Nn8M3X2h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718974492321 | Alexis Verdet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Atari as been investing a lot of cash into games studios and is increasing its visibility on Nintendo and other markets for their games.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this strategy pay off?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1883873757544411} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3691618843012585, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AlexisVerdet | 1718974543671 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocInBZve852s2D2fy5-2vJKw7wc1umoPw9LlvV1m7qg0jdhf1g=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718973745270 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718974540612 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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pdofspw59o | how-many-holdout-machines-will-ther | 747.8851129969325 | How many holdout machines will there be for BB(6) on 2025-07-01? | 1751435940000 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1718980163672 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holdouts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wiki.bbchallenge.org/wiki/Holdouts_lists", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " are Turing machines whose halting status is not yet proven. 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0.5 | hqvqesv8ya | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-kyler-chin-complete-the-catena | 0 | Will Kyler Chin complete the Catenary Grand Coastal Ride in under 4.5 hours? | 1721663940000 | POIWlbLM4aUD65YXxSWiMFzQPor1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718985775612 | Ashly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by Strava timing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "maid bike maid bike maid bike maid bike", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ashly_webb | 1718985775612 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703096730666 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | rt0wnan9do | {"NO": 35.229758572091576, "YES": 283.8509375401119} | 0.1104101846377544 | will-the-cannonball-run-speed-recor | 187 | Will the Cannonball Run speed record be 25 hours or lower by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718987664259 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cannonball_Run_challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cannonball_Run_challenge", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of October 2021, the overall record is 25 hours 39 minutes, with an average speed of 113 miles per hour (182 km/h), driven by Arne Toman and Doug Tabbutt.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3895898153622456} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.149062459888116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719081802181 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719081799119 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9zd7ujwawm | {"NO": 35.97348951170075, "YES": 277.9824847613797} | 0.11458131859090163 | will-the-cannonball-run-speed-recor-nrwhgkx6vy | 208 | Will the Cannonball Run speed record be 25 hours or lower by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1718987696998 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cannonball_Run_challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cannonball_Run_challenge", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of October 2021, the overall record is 25 hours 39 minutes, with an average speed of 113 miles per hour (182 km/h), driven by Arne Toman and Doug Tabbutt.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.38541868140909835} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5181027761325723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719030970942 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719030967900 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wf252xxn48 | did-claude-35-sonnet-achieve-weak-s | 0 | Did Claude 3.5 Sonnet achieve weak superintelligence? | 1719633540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1718989451122 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have never written an OBS plugin before.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the release of Claude 3.5 Sonnet just in the nick of time for an event tomorrow, I decided to see if I could create a plugin that would generate a slide with a countdown clock. Instead, it generated this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUNpXUReUZ_.png?alt=media&token=13f9cd9a-177f-4092-a6c1-d1999cf338ff", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJn2e07PMg4.png?alt=media&token=b656c816-1c06-4be7-be5b-90800e31ad26", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzNcnXYu42P.png?alt=media&token=07bc6a0c-1fe9-4c3f-ab39-8f52ef346b23", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rather than just write what I asked, it output the initial code and then continued to make suggestions to improve the program. The code contained docstrings, type hints, and helpful comments. My limiting factor was that IntelliJ does not have a feature where you it can search for the function you want to paste over from the clipboard, and it took very long to constantly search with find and replace.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet eventually arrived at a 715 line program, which took 146 minutes to write, debug, test, and achieve stability sufficient for a critical event attended by 100 people. The plugin also displays green, yellow, and red timing cards at specified intervals, saves configuration to disk and does automatic crash recovery, loads JSON from an agenda.json and automatically sets the timer to keep every event on track for the day, and contains a UI to change all the configuration options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is unquestionable that no human, regardless of experience with OBS and Python, has ever written a working, user-friendly, bug-tested 715-line plugin with this quality of code in 146 minutes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In a previous poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "HfUm6MvM7gwfd5GFBy8h", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I voted that GPT-4o had achieved weak AGI. In this poll, I will vote that Claude 3.5 Sonnet has achieved weak superintelligence. Do you agree?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719633540169 | SteveSokolowski | 1719006795032 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719006788615 | ["xio8854i7e"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | nro1wj2dsd | {"NO": 590.121488812076, "YES": 1694.5663205944504} | 0.2582941469650363 | will-nick-fuentes-be-excommunicated | 1194.7071334564591 | Will Nick Fuentes be excommunicated by the Catholic Church before 2035? | 2051938740000 | AVrpw4A7bxQNXMcTbT3ZcD3nUFC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614050464698982 | False | basic | public | 1718991603118 | Alexander Turok | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For resolving this, I will go by what the mainstream media reports to be excommunication.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.24170585303496372} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.07534153099014, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AlexanderTurok | 1719369192894 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc4U0grSt-LLJxLxUgw3SE1k-1NtxaWv0LH5KO5lgFC=s96-c | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691236710637 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719369189773 | 1719162416200 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | oxgcx054ee | {"NO": 109.3577054581551, "YES": 91.44303054005118} | 0 | time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1 | 47.17063759817912 | Time Machine Coin Flip: Coin 1 | 1719212340000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1718992193444 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coin flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will make 5 of these markets in the coming 10 days. The premise is simple:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heads, Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tails, No", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's the twist: the 5 coin results are deterministic (precomputed and stored on my Notes app), and you have a Coin Time Machine which you can ask a yes/no question by messaging me (OP, Interrobang) in the Manifold messenger (or, if that doesn't work, via Discord at interrobang0).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's the catch: you only get one yes/no question per person, which has to last you all 5 coin flips, unless someone else shares their own answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example: if you PMed me \"for all coins that land Tails, does the coin after that also land Tails more than 50% of the time?\", the machine returns Yes, and this market resolved No (tails), you could bet No on the next market and make profit.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These coin markets will resolve before the next one opens, so no more than one market will be open at any time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to bend these rules if I get stranded on a deserted island or if I particularly feel like it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.559827878470553, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719244677807 | 100 | Interrobang | 1719212340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719209558965 | 1719083244012 | 0.54 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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putooiagfa | which-beliefs-are-the-most-rational | 17152.601505315935 | Which beliefs are the most rationalist? | 1721624340000 | rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719000656052 | blue rat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please add more beliefs.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once the market ends I will create a poll for each of them (with the options \"agree and rationalist\", \"disagree and rationalist\", \"agree and not rationalist\", \"disagree and not rationalist\", \"neither disagree nor agree and rationalist\", \"neither disagree nor agree and not rationalist\") and for each one find the difference between the percentage of rationalists who agree and the percentage of non-rationalists who agree. I will then normalize them such that answers with no difference will resolve to 50% while the answer with the most difference will resolve to YES (or NO if the largest difference is negative for some reason).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market is meant to be about what makes rationalists and non-rationalists different, not just their differences. For example: rationalists and non-rationalists seem to have different beliefs about AI, and answers about AI are allowed, but I don't think those differences are essential, so I don't think they are the point of the market, please keep that in mind. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 380.69041055451214, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2100 | bluerat | 1719566069432 | 0 | 59 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2ixkghh8pe", "prob": 0.73, "text": "learning about common biases and trying to account for them in yourself can help one to make better decisions", "index": 0, "poolNo": 164.42942874387472, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.816364055953684, "textFts": "'account':8 'better':18 'bias':4 'common':3 'decis':19 'help':14 'learn':1 'make':17 'one':15 'tri':6", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.22999999999999998, "month": 0.22999999999999998}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.22999999999999998, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.22999999999999998}, {"id": "q3a7lokb7i", "prob": 0.6299999999999999, "text": "studying game theory can help one to make better decisions", "index": 1, "poolNo": 130.48765086025207, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.63560447348141, "textFts": "'better':9 'decis':10 'game':2 'help':5 'make':8 'one':6 'studi':1 'theori':3", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1299999999999999, "month": 0.1299999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.1299999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.1299999999999999}, {"id": "cbbg0ddk56", "prob": 0.6899999999999996, "text": "studying economics can help one to make better decisions", "index": 2, "poolNo": 149.1913687722215, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.0280062599837, "textFts": "'better':8 'decis':9 'econom':2 'help':4 'make':7 'one':5 'studi':1", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1899999999999996, "month": 0.1899999999999996}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.1899999999999996, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.1899999999999996}, {"id": "zssthm2vvo", "prob": 0.6199999999999999, "text": "everyone should do what they can in order to make better decisions", "index": 3, "poolNo": 127.73327473170094, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 78.2881361258813, "textFts": "'better':11 'decis':12 'everyon':1 'make':10 'order':8", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.11999999999999988, "month": 0.11999999999999988}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.11999999999999988, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.11999999999999988}, {"id": "6s59e7zry5", "prob": 0.6265138889542059, "text": "I personally try to do whatever I can in order to make better decisions", "index": 4, "poolNo": 129.51740175916112, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.20970204911214, "textFts": "'better':13 'decis':14 'make':12 'order':10 'person':2 'tri':3 'whatev':6", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1265138889542059, "month": 0.1265138889542059}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.1265138889542059, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.1265138889542059}, {"id": "nem4r7lv49", "prob": 0.7299999999999995, "text": "beliefs which do not influence future predictions (ie. ones that can only explain things in retrospect or ones that don't explain anything) are useless", "index": 5, "poolNo": 164.429428743875, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.81636405595391, "textFts": "'anyth':23 'belief':1 'explain':13,22 'futur':6 'ie':8 'influenc':5 'one':9,18 'predict':7 'retrospect':16 'thing':14 'useless':25", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.22999999999999954, "month": 0.22999999999999954}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.22999999999999954, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.22999999999999954}, {"id": "farogxextm", "prob": 0.52, "text": "most people are too often overconfident that they know what someone else is trying to say. It can be helpful in discussions to take a step back and check whether you are actually", "index": 6, "poolNo": 104.08329997330668, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.07689228305229, "textFts": "'actual':33 'back':27 'check':29 'discuss':22 'els':12 'help':20 'know':9 'often':5 'overconfid':6 'peopl':2 'say':16 'someon':11 'step':26 'take':24 'tri':14 'whether':30", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.020000000000000018, "month": 0.020000000000000018}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.020000000000000018, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.020000000000000018}, {"id": "yhtd8wkhul", "prob": 0.6816641244066626, "text": "you should never be 100% confident of any belief", "index": 7, "poolNo": 146.33305058463063, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.33726188340863, "textFts": "'100':5 'belief':9 'confid':6 'never':3", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.18166412440666257, "month": 0.18166412440666257}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.18166412440666257, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.18166412440666257}, {"id": "ej8ofocb49", "prob": 0.6068622659942715, "text": "it's important to distinguish between your model of reality and reality itself", "index": 8, "poolNo": 124.24322105876783, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.48728868088476, "textFts": "'distinguish':5 'import':3 'model':8 'realiti':10,12", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.10686226599427151, "month": 0.10686226599427151}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.10686226599427151, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.10686226599427151}, {"id": "nmzjk2r4je", "prob": 0.8227111036762914, "text": "an intuitive understanding of bayes' theorem can help one to make better decisions", "index": 9, "poolNo": 215.4184571903253, "userId": "rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.42127759352063, "textFts": "'bay':5 'better':12 'decis':13 'help':8 'intuit':2 'make':11 'one':9 'theorem':6 'understand':3", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719000656052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.3227111036762914, "month": 0.3227111036762914}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.3227111036762914, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.3227111036762914}, {"id": "czljmuisvp", "prob": 0.6599999999999999, "text": "we are prone to \"become attached to beliefs we may not want\", but we can take explicit reasoning steps to mitigate this problem.", "index": 10, "poolNo": 139.3261092038472, "userId": "uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.77405625652739, "textFts": "'attach':6 'becom':5 'belief':8 'explicit':17 'may':10 'mitig':21 'problem':23 'prone':3 'reason':18 'step':19 'take':16 'want':12", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719008228166, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.15999999999999992, "month": 0.15999999999999992}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.15999999999999992, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.15999999999999992}, {"id": "u17e776oi8", "prob": 0.7405387766372665, "text": "Rationality is the art of winning; if there's a behavior you think is rational, but it tends to lose, you're not actually being rational. This includes properly modeling other people who are not rational.", "index": 11, "poolNo": 168.94201563749604, "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.19190653826042, "textFts": "'actual':24 'art':4 'behavior':11 'includ':28 'lose':20 'model':30 'peopl':32 'proper':29 'ration':1,15,26,36 're':22 'tend':18 'think':13 'win':6", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719035885790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.24053877663726653, "month": 0.24053877663726653}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.24053877663726653, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.24053877663726653}, {"id": "fwxvkig2z8", "prob": 0.3700000000000001, "text": "Consequentialism and deontology are not at odds. Use deontology because it's easier to work with on a daily basis; use consequentialism so you have the ability to reason about, question, and adjust your deontology, and handle exceptions.", "index": 12, "poolNo": 76.63560447348128, "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 130.48765086025188, "textFts": "'abil':27 'adjust':33 'basi':20 'consequenti':1,22 'daili':19 'deontolog':3,9,35 'easier':13 'except':38 'handl':37 'odd':7 'question':31 'reason':29 'use':8,21 'work':15", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719036493058, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.1299999999999999, "month": -0.1299999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.1299999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.1299999999999999}, {"id": "th5lj78kl3", "prob": 0.6237280253926043, "text": "It is important to vet beliefs such that your beliefs will be true and you will not hold beliefs that are false. ", "index": 13, "poolNo": 128.7498384750101, "userId": "JVfms6HK5qZA9Es2f1SHgRnSlAK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.67000035453229, "textFts": "'belief':6,10,19 'fals':22 'hold':18 'import':3 'true':13 'vet':5", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719055683155, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1237280253926043, "month": 0.1237280253926043}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.1237280253926043, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.1237280253926043}, {"id": "1sy9g2qrmm", "prob": 0.6136792241499768, "text": "one should change their beliefs when presented with new information. ", "index": 14, "poolNo": 126.036599720943, "userId": "GwfhBrAEukcYZBxp9QEE7J5BkM83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.34203256943576, "textFts": "'belief':5 'chang':3 'inform':10 'new':9 'one':1 'present':7", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719071886041, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.11367922414997678, "month": 0.11367922414997678}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.11367922414997678, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.11367922414997678}, {"id": "sbciynu0cy", "prob": 0.7799999999999999, "text": "The probability that AI destroys humanity or causes incredible suffering before 2100 is >5%.", "index": 15, "poolNo": 188.29377433825437, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.108500454379445, "textFts": "'2100':12 '5':14 'ai':4 'caus':8 'destroy':5 'human':6 'incred':9 'probabl':2 'suffer':10", "contractId": "putooiagfa", "createdTime": 1719085330098, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2799999999999999, "month": 0.2799999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2799999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.2799999999999999}, {"id": "6xyt8m2twf", "prob": 0.3407868791423231, "text": "Emotions are bad and dumb. 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gkz9kb4tcu | should-i-order-the-daylight-tablet | 0 | Should I order the Daylight tablet? | 1719644340000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719001086491 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On one hand, it's obviously awesome and fast. There is no monitor that comes close to matching the lumens of ambient daylight, and this is why programmers get terrible eyesight. Being outside raises my happiness and probably my effective intelligence. So I have long been waiting for a display with sufficient reflected readability and refresh rate to be able to program outside.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "On the other hand, reflective LCDs are not new technology. The Hannsnote 2 is coming to the US at half the price in August. That's around the same time that the Daylight preorders in the current batch would be ready. Or I fly to Taiwan for a vacation and and buy it there. I could also get the Nxtpaper from amazon UK but r/reflective_lcd says that Hannsnote is better.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Maybe Daylight has some secret sauce that makes their displays much better than the competitors? I kinda wonder if they are just better at marketing to the tech crowd though", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV", "label": "/SG/will-i-love-daylight-computer"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719644340173 | Sinclair | 1719001723388 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640048961098 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719001721790 | ["or3mfxo3tg"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | k73xp5zhic | {"NO": 1084.0689323541117, "YES": 922.4505657850083} | 0.5402733107550141 | will-openai-complete-another-100m-a | 540 | Will OpenAI complete another $100M+ acquisition in 2024 after Rockset deal? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571345177953795 | False | basic | public | 1719002641079 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Friday June 21st, OpenAI announce its biggest and first \"real\" acquisition to date -- that of Rockset -- a data infrastructure company that had previously raised $105M in venture capital.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/microsoft-backed-openai-acquires-rockset-on-june-21-2024-to-enhance-data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/microsoft-backed-openai-acquires-rockset-on-june-21-2024-to-enhance-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4wj_TjqIPp.png?alt=media&token=95be18ca-a977-4394-8f75-16e485f8cc9f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if OpenAI announces any more acquisitions for more than $100M", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " the $100M can be either confirmed as acquisition price, as reported by TechCrunch or other major tech publications", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " OR if the company being acquired raised over $100M in venture capital", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Gray area cases will be decided by common sense and judgement.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Separate acquisitions adding up to $100M do NOT resolve in a YES. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The deal must be a single acquisition for over $100M or of a company that has raised $100M+", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolve NO at the end of 2024 if no such acquisition can be confirmed.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04027331075501406} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.02435308334469, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719360996295 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719360992930 | 1719346972642 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999983 | 6nfdcra9w5 | {"NO": 104.36303442709846, "YES": 95.81936798690329} | 0.5213397040328394 | will-donald-trump-win-the-republica-d6s2ags4m9 | 105 | Will Donald Trump win the Republican nomination but not be inaugurated for any reason? | 1736290740000 | LcDZdOmQdJSKB2mwuFImstJyeMz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719009322679 | Julia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the market to resolve as YES, both of these conditions must be fulfilled:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination (“the Nomination”):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This criterion is met if Donald Trump is officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election by the Republican National Committee.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump is not inaugurated:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This criterion is met if Donald Trump, after winning the Nomination, is not sworn in as President for any reason. This includes being replaced by another candidate, losing the general election, or any other circumstance that prevents his inauguration.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market. The close date may be extended if there’s any doubt about either criterion.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.028660295967160576, "month": 0.021339704032839357} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2870081444302794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Juliafe02 | 1719822227266 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKN7DH35BsTDdg70SRBD644lLdIrDbiwh5qoUqcGb7kFRU=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710095480587 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719822224131 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000006 | 65ewihlo61 | {"NO": 1345.2452074914231, "YES": 743.3589017312113} | 0.6440881742744996 | will-openai-anthropic-or-google-dee-z5xkbux22u | 1402 | Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? | 1767329940000 | 5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.531409242242843 | False | basic | public | 1719013059823 | Jacob Pfau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Model weights, architecture details, private training data, training algorithms,... all count. The leak must be reported on by multiple news sources.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I must believe with >50% credence that the leak was worth $5 million or more. I will not predict on this market. To estimate the leak's value I would take into account:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Purchasing value to a competitor: The estimated amount a competitor would be willing to pay for the stolen IP if it were legally for sale.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reduction in costs: The estimated savings in research and development costs or training run costs.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Impact on market position: Company valuation, revenue, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Expert consensus.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A partial list of IP which would qualify: Model weights Architecture details Private training data Training methodologies and algorithms Optimization techniques Novel loss functions Hyperparameter configurations Data preprocessing techniques Model distillation methods Customized evaluation metrics Proprietary scaling laws Novel fine-tuning approaches Specialized hardware designs for AI Proprietary AI safety measures", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Intentional leaks by employees for safety reasons e.g. \"employee reveals that no safety testing was done on model X\" does not qualify. If the relevant IP was shared by OAI/Anthropic/GDM to a 3rd party (regulator, customer etc.) and stolen from 3rd party servers, then this does ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count. Gradual rumor-like diffusion of information about model architectural details does not count: only IP confirmed to have been leaked in a single incident counts. Minor leakage e.g. conversation titles between users in ChatGPT's web UI do not count, this would not have sufficient economic value.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/RobertWiblin/will-openai-anthropic-or-deepmind-s", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/RobertWiblin/will-openai-anthropic-or-deepmind-s", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.014478483462679659, "month": 0.1440881742744996} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.09478785344121, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JacobPfau | 1720038753673 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664600870478 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720038750553 | 1719249034768 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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tbguwvr4g9 | is-2008-bank-bailouts-worse-than-co | 0 | Is "2008 bank bailouts" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720218041909 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719014893629 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority this poll may close earlier than 1 week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves an option on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720218060167 | KeenenW | 1720218043475 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["o38le2xjjy"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
w0qh80pzx8 | is-not-seeding-your-torrents-worse | 0 | Is "not seeding your torrents" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613626479 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719014923223 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority this poll may close earlier than 1 week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves an option on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613680145 | KeenenW | 1719613629013 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["m3zgnd6xix"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sbov3sgvb6 | is-flipping-a-coin-and-then-either | 0 | Is "Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719014979770 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all'", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority this poll may close earlier than 1 week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves an option on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218368336 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | False | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ili8kkwj15 | is-sleep-token-band-worse-than-comm | 0 | Is "Sleep Token (Band)" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015025511 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority this poll may close earlier than 1 week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves an option on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218360831 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f90s9ve2pd | is-cheating-on-spouse-worse-than-co | 0 | Is "Cheating on spouse" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719261193429 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015056688 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority this poll may close earlier than 1 week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves an option on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719261240682 | KeenenW | 1719261194777 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["f6bxdsyers"] | 0 |
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