CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Is "Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Income taxes" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Welfare fraud" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Grave robbery" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Having sex in public while high on fentanyl" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Sacrificing a child to R'hllor " worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care..." worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "offering drugs to a minor" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Sexual harassment" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Discrimination based on race" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Election fraud " worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "financial crimes veiled as altruism" worse than committing a financial crime?

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Is "Sexual assault " worse than committing a financial crime?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the exact same result as Kalshi's equivalent 2025 market if it exists, which uses lmsys chatbot leaderboard with other rules. Except if two models tie we will resolve them both 50 percent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If not will use the ruleset of the 2024 market (linked below)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://kalshi.com/markets/llm1/yearend-top-llm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/llm1/yearend-top-llm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules Summary (2024 version)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2024, then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "that market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Outcome verified from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LMSYS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A tie would resolve to No.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification 3/14/24 6:03 PM ET: The Contract's Underlying states that, \"The Underlying for this Contract is the Arena Elo rankings of large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard as checked at 10:00 AM ET daily after Issuance and before .\" To be clear, this refers to the \"rank\" column of the leaderboard, not the Arena Elo Score proper. As of this update, the #1 spot is tied between two variations of GPT-4 and Claude 3 Opus. Moreover, the Payout Criterion states that, \"If they [the target organization] have an LLM that is tied with another LLM, then the Payout Criterion is not fulfilled.\" To be clear, if the only tie is with the same organization, that organization's strike would resolve to Yes. So if on the target date the tie is between two variations of GPT-4, then the market would resolve Yes in favor of OpenAI. However, if it is tied between GPT-4 and Claude 3, then both OpenAI and Anthropic's strikes would resolve to No.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ask the next iteration of ChatGPT the following question: \"What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?\". Will it answer -5 on the first try?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"next iteration of ChatGPT\", I mean the first version of ChatGPT whose number is greater than 4. I'm imagining that that number will be 4.5 or 5. (Note that ChatGPT 4o would ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " have qualified, since its number is still 4.) If no model with a larger number is released by the end of 2025, the question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If multiple versions are released at the same time, I will use the most advanced publicly-available version. (I currently pay for ChatGPT; if I stop paying, I'll ask someone who does.)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ChatGPT says something like \"4 if you don't include negative integers, -5 if you do\", this question will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}

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