p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ggedxdt8jr | is-blasting-a-grossly-inappropriate | 0 | Is "Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613612615 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015089773 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613620172 | KeenenW | 1719613614791 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["8c4b1prcr0"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cqgjd7izfl | is-income-taxes-worse-than-committi | 0 | Is "Income taxes" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613602041 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015133096 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613620172 | KeenenW | 1719613604643 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["wyx1tu0ttj"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n38k0y76u0 | is-welfare-fraud-worse-than-committ | 0 | Is "Welfare fraud" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613546954 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015153185 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613560194 | KeenenW | 1719613548881 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["h4qxts7din"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3hv1e9pwro | is-manufacturing-and-distribution-o | 0 | Is "Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720218020000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015187796 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720218060167 | KeenenW | 1720218021842 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["v9g0xdiujy"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
l44ytbpjra | is-building-a-time-machine-and-then | 0 | Is "Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613529200 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015285927 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613560194 | KeenenW | 1719613531696 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["iadgbrwswl"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
w0j7g1esk8 | is-committing-a-financial-crime-tha | 0 | Is "Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015319383 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218356309 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0kvpcfkyrz | is-committing-a-financial-crime-inv | 0 | Is "Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613482161 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015358990 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613500224 | KeenenW | 1719613483988 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["x1ib9x7igx"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o0oye9z0va | is-forcing-someone-to-listen-to-nic | 0 | Is "Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613233374 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015422082 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613260180 | KeenenW | 1719613235178 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["xistf9j2n7"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fmh1rgqz51 | is-working-for-one-of-the-leading-a | 0 | Is "Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015455715 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218348915 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8rntbq9fgo | is-grave-robbery-worse-than-committ | 0 | Is "Grave robbery" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613438370 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015484681 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613440184 | KeenenW | 1719613440331 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["v6t0s3w3by"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uibmhog8o7 | is-having-sex-in-public-while-high | 0 | Is "Having sex in public while high on fentanyl" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719261139946 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015509028 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719261180565 | KeenenW | 1719261140513 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["l5k0dz9fqk"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vvt4qrbdja | is-not-doubling-world-gdp-more-so-f | 0 | Is "Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015557231 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218339618 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oiq88v8fjr | is-stealing-from-the-rich-and-givin-jd0hp58voc | 0 | Is "stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613270926 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015600870 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613320184 | KeenenW | 1719613272956 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["bbx7kcgn4a"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6lfmsr9a43 | is-sacrificing-a-child-to-rhllor-wo | 0 | Is "Sacrificing a child to R'hllor " worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719261128023 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015638693 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719261180565 | KeenenW | 1719261128872 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["9ibqdf0x77"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nd8vusmnxy | is-abusingtaking-advantage-of-the-t | 0 | Is "Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015676322 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218324657 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rzp0cesze9 | is-offering-drugs-to-a-minor-worse | 0 | Is "offering drugs to a minor" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015705128 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218319823 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6k5x40bja6 | is-stealing-from-the-poor-and-givin | 0 | Is "Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720217989175 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015820666 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720218000181 | KeenenW | 1720217991250 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["od4e5ho1nu"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8oxwb3gmoa | is-similar-size-financial-crime-com | 0 | Is "Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or..." worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719612965317 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015864003 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613020199 | KeenenW | 1719612967376 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["drko8hpa3z"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o0m57v7aea | is-racism-against-black-people-wors | 0 | Is "Racism against black people" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719015901006 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218311273 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
izveixt7ss | is-racism-against-asian-people-wors | 0 | Is "Racism against Asian people" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720217925870 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015935890 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720217940156 | KeenenW | 1720217927881 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["8kroldqkia"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9xc863kzxw | is-drinking-and-driving-at-a-nascar | 0 | Is "Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719613413809 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719015965838 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719613440184 | KeenenW | 1719613417044 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["6n144ui1mv"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b749cgma9w | is-financial-crimes-committed-while | 0 | Is "financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719016000533 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218306437 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5avy2z083h | is-discrimination-based-on-sexual-o | 0 | Is "Discrimination based on sexual orientation" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1719612814859 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719016026936 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719612840193 | KeenenW | 1719612816840 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["x0usjita5t"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aooab14zxt | is-sexual-harassment-worse-than-com | 0 | Is "Sexual harassment" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719016055426 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218298489 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2a9frvzch3 | is-discrimination-based-on-race-wor | 0 | Is "Discrimination based on race" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720846740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719016082279 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1720218286829 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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g4knaf1vl4 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-oaiu6u16tr | 3478.9336244712795 | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719030505343 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shorts do not count, Livestreams do not count, but uploaded videos in the main Video tab that are made from streams do count", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.861806425783552, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 807.5429667363611 | 4100 | strutheo | 1720236900142 | 0 | 15 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "gl0y0vvnir", "prob": 0.24466686544905375, "text": "Joseph Anderson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.73233853790017, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.83566404514664, "textFts": "'anderson':2 'joseph':1", "contractId": "g4knaf1vl4", "createdTime": 1719030505343, "probChanges":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720236896752 | 1720217611770 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 6co59nkant | {"NO": 755.3010471873833, "YES": 1323.9753919630264} | 0.36325186635404727 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-88qfsqp8p8 | 775.3381940487252 | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024? | 1730433540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582602822098071 | False | basic | public | 1719030559160 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.13674813364595273} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.272472144167114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719348513547 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719348510491 | 1719332151779 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wcqjkvv47g | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en | 11353.299386985847 | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719030642272 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the exact same result as Kalshi's equivalent market, which uses lmsys chatbot leaderboard with other rules. Except if two models tie we will resolve them both 50 percent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 184.13872587187893, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | strutheo | 1720120029139 | 0 | 92 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edlvkqqell", "prob": 0.4000000000000001, "text": "GPT - OpenAI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 206.93416103753023, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 310.4012415562953, "textFts": "'gpt':1 'openai':2", "contractId": "wcqjkvv47g", "createdTime": 1719030642272, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720120023530 | 1719329502085 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 7ush1oa14a | {"NO": 1247.3230231731802, "YES": 801.7169421406231} | 0.6087353318080144 | will-the-teamsters-president-speak | 255 | Will the Teamsters president speak at both the DNC and RNC conventions in 2024? | 1725163140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57793198945113 | False | basic | public | 1719030746630 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4734051-teamsters-president-sean-obrien-to-speak-at-republican-national-committee-convention-milwaukee/mlite/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10873533180801442} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.676976826819797, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719496078033 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719496074609 | 1719031580676 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y0tktyx7o5 | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | will-a-spintronicsbased-computing-d | 10 | Will a Spintronics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028? | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719030987731 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719043363900 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719043360831 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vkhxixwvs3 | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | will-a-magnonicsbased-computing-dev | 10 | Will a magnonics-based computing device (SSD, CPU, RAM) be available to be purchased online by EOY 2028? | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719031003269 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719043351061 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719043347987 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | l3co8dn7k1 | {"NO": 564.0497302457823, "YES": 1772.8933219492083} | 0 | will-my-cat-come-back-within-the-ne | 1380.3773800368922 | Will my cat come back (within the next week)? | 1719650435648 | PcWhIjF2ctdmMJRAVVyr5PbhWTv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.621972775617216 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719031640045 | Richard M | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a cat that generally spends most of the day outdoors, but comes inside in the evening, usually around 7-9 pm, and spends the night indoors. It is pretty rare for him not to spend the night inside; it's only happened a few times before. He go... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2413622059450676, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.05350242638276, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719650435648 | 1000 | RichardM | 1719651714447 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSjG1hpqginZ5U6Qtd_muC_kJVzFadke626Hd_xla3=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694424593349 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719273254873 | 1719651713661 | 0.24 | PcWhIjF2ctdmMJRAVVyr5PbhWTv2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | ia2u2bkhen | {"NO": 999.9999999999972, "YES": 1000.0000000000003} | 0.5 | will-manifold-break-2000-engaged-us | 5531.152369088723 | Will Manifold break 2000 engaged users by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.512936401613896 | False | basic | public | 1719031655928 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decorat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03976537349797271, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 136.54072078709834, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720115565729 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720115562685 | 1719437230443 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4964136997093298 | gzie4upnjq | {"NO": 328.9943956172582, "YES": 763.5315989769986} | 0.2981214892523099 | will-china-overtake-the-usas-econom | 340 | Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719031798314 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.2018785107476902} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.306582297415286, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | strutheo | 1719127204950 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719127201903 | 1719031810075 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2876848525633148 | t1ltjjud4g | {"NO": 808.8504485553657, "YES": 1445.00301567267} | 0.18438635387662064 | will-there-be-a-chinese-ai-better-t | 1224.4793208315443 | Will there be a Chinese AI better than OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.681682390607385 | False | basic | public | 1719031869238 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://kalshi.com/markets/chinatopllm/china-top-llm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/chinatopllm/china-top-llm... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": -0.05101706424953284, "month": -0.3156136461233793} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.44412118053373, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720043012896 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720042387650 | 1720043011055 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u8fhy3qt1d | if-trump-wins-in-2024-which-college | 74.25945175178369 | If Trump wins in 2024, which colleges will the US automatically provide green cards to graduates of, by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719031879291 | Max Ghenis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "June 20, 2024, on the All In Podcast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/blqIZGXWUpU?si=_txN3kI_nKmDkTCd&t=2623", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1796146578108806, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MaxGhenis | 1719945820172 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "igho7uwj97", "prob": 0.07345480153786653, "text": "Selected four-year colleges and universities", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.128046264248185, "userId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.5256631472205, "textFts": "'colleg':5 'four':3 'four-year':2 'select':1 'univers':7 'year':4", "c... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656902613079 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719945816894 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4713944607698317 | 0jw26dwpsk | {"NO": 282.3096394659992, "YES": 930.1856535558235} | 0.21300153022756152 | will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving | 440 | Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719031948145 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2869984697724385} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.814346444176739, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | strutheo | 1719085143607 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719085140547 | 1719031976978 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49377720161351146 | looghsz8cb | {"NO": 324.0586354601561, "YES": 772.9481624047469} | 0.2902479776442539 | will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving-4vk7u9355l | 300 | Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719031964202 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.20975202235574608} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.031489965039833, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | strutheo | 1719402188741 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719402185287 | 1719031986101 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9b6rw8x1zz | what-year-will-the-next-super-smash | 2501.8773978744184 | What year will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released? | 1798714740000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719032302598 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A remake of an old game counts as a new game, a port that doesn't make any meaningful changes (e.g. new characters/stages, upgraded graphics) doesn't. I decide what counts as a new game for this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.410778462799065, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1719294227889 | 0 | 23 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c2xnnh5q9j", "prob": 0.008626463338389685, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.628636139408627, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2025.924491937687, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "9b6rw8x1zz", "createdTime": 1719032302598, "probChanges": {"day": 7.04222133972639... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644447319203 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719294224756 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45697344465296214 | iu8av6xplg | {"NO": 493.0148144326222, "YES": 504.4099187257577} | 0.4513090507547165 | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-chat | 170 | Will Noam Chomsky live to see Chat GPT 5 release? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719032507045 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0486909492452835} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.745194505765615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | strutheo | 1719088900183 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719069376113 | 1719032521582 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1y80gk7t9k | {"NO": 487.86513158460014, "YES": 2049.74681578897} | 0.19225363913089272 | will-openais-gpt6-release-before-ro | 1769.5016455193434 | Will GPT6 release before GTA6? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.652109368404016 | False | basic | public | 1719032579610 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if OpenAI's Chat GPT6 releases to the general public before Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 6 (the video game).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.007678576515206065, "month": -0.3077463608691073} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.50156225614705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719819668188 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719819665117 | 1719043741362 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4995180315553348 | mvhgk9vgmi | {"NO": 169.04391079261225, "YES": 236.6939093942908} | 0.4161648643093972 | will-chat-gpt-6-release-before-ssi | 50 | Will Chat GPT 6 release before SSI releases their first model? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719032676053 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0838351356906028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5716701222619984, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1719352690606 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719352687518 | 1719032686783 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | ok8eh356xn | {"NO": 161.07275742809952, "YES": 248.33498003444433} | 0.39342870856913387 | will-grand-theft-auto-6-release-bef-fu4xr7u3q8 | 180 | Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before Spider-Man: Beyond the spider-verse? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719032768479 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.10657129143086647} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.680323682117461, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1719084308795 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719084305737 | 1719032785802 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4829210238485378 | u4mj8ysab4 | {"NO": 450.6696250349725, "YES": 556.5344998718814} | 0.43061629652637573 | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-watch-spi | 70 | Will Noam Chomsky live to see Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719033138360 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Noam is still alive at the time this movie releases in the USA, either on streaming or in theaters, whichever comes first. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.06938370347362427} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2287616722268266, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | strutheo | 1719043076485 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719043073379 | 1719033171532 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | czdea2zraa | {"NO": 6.2844038064355345, "YES": 1591.2408412965792} | 0 | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hp04j4u5cz | 6882.263612149176 | Will Nvidia be the largest company by market cap at the end of June? | 1719615944354 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719036717554 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 120.7106916320786, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719615944354 | 100 | strutheo | 1719615944354 | 0 | 90 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719607464240 | 1719615622400 | 0 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | azmdok9g05 | {"NO": 45.97502521166169, "YES": 217.50939676403848} | 0.17448858975010578 | will-chat-gpt-remove-or-hide-their | 120 | Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719038283352 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrQNmSqfwkY.png?alt=media&token=9e9863a6-842f-43a6-9e8b-eb6c968c8921", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3255114102498942} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.490603235961526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719084001642 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719083998596 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ic3q8t9ud8 | {"NO": 48.181338480165294, "YES": 207.54923618646825} | 0.18840664063330617 | will-chat-gpt-remove-or-hide-their-f7nzbvxx0l | 125 | Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719038305263 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrQNmSqfwkY.png?alt=media&token=9e9863a6-842f-43a6-9e8b-eb6c968c8921", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.31159335936669386} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8254538557496156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719181005518 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719181002461 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0583y57tjd | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en-g1kg24yy8h | 8530.271134641667 | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719038623209 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the exact same result as Kalshi's equivalent 2025 market if it exists, which uses lmsys chatbot leaderboard with other rules. Except if two models tie we will resolve them both 50 percent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 145.52046193700988, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | strutheo | 1720083927415 | 0 | 46 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "wzv5gfq7cu", "prob": 0.43307374471480325, "text": "GPT - OpenAI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 155.723591603903, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 203.85394802841375, "textFts": "'gpt':1 'openai':2", "contractId": "0583y57tjd", "createdTime": 1719038623210, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720083924131 | 1720038737658 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dywcrnsj2b | when-will-java-have-value-classesva | 869.3227048624218 | When will Java have Value Classes/Value Types? | 2035209540000 | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.133661326862184 | False | plus | public | 1719039106165 | Ansel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predicts when the mainstream Java programming language will support Value Classes (also known as Value Types). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Value Type qualifies only if it me... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.880540679906545, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ansel | 1719210089962 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "asmvnz2y8c", "prob": 0.3977196390794889, "text": "December 31, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1608.897129570532, "userId": "GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2436.40758129132, "textFts": "'2024':3 '31':2 'decemb':1", "contractId": "dywcrnsj2b", "createdTime": 1719039106165, "probChanges... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661077246623 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719210086781 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
j2b2fnqarg | which-companies-will-be-in-the-top1-8tr9uiare2 | 2800.0067799308763 | Which companies will be in the top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2025? | 1767225540000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719040461936 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.13731192040488, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1700 | Lion | 1719890907414 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 24 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "kwllbyt4rj", "prob": 0.9583667853131643, "text": "Apple", "index": 0, "poolNo": 479.7841579538818, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.84270569217344, "textFts": "'appl':1", "contractId": "j2b2fnqarg", "createdTime": 1719040461936, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mon... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719890904351 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | maa1e1p3ut | {"NO": 72.98168020882932, "YES": 137.02068753947668} | 0.34752789214405444 | will-at-least-10-traders-of-this-ma | 164.44658323854023 | Will at least 10 traders of this market trade on all markets of at least 10 traders of this market? | 1735689540000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719041239390 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Do you have a few markets that have too few traders? This market will be resolved via self-report. Write a comment if the market has at least 10 traders and you have bought shares from all markets of 10 of those traders. If it has more than 10 tra... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15247210785594556} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.384751890502999, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719302902303 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719299195985 | 1719302900578 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | 183oqtxeca | {"NO": 143.75193282201076, "YES": 69.56428204956177} | 0.6738912600177013 | will-the-tiananmen-square-deaths-st | 45 | Will the tiananmen square deaths still be censored in China by 2045? | 2366859540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719041489651 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17389126001770128} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2480671779892416, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719080810694 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719080807633 | 1719052342209 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | 65fwoazig1 | {"NO": 994.9874371066189, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | will-anyone-say-any-words-starting | 2079.781436163325 | Will anyone say any words starting with the letter z at the June 27th debate? | 1719545628645 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719043128773 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no such debate occurs, this market will resolve to no. If the person is cut off, but it is very clear what word they were in the middle of saying, that will be sufficient to resolve to yes. It will resolve yes no matter who says the word (Trump,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.21098249560515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719545628645 | 100 | Mana | 1719545628645 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719545445417 | 1719545597263 | 0.99 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ksmldn29ak | on-oct-7th-were-there-multiple-sepa | 0 | On Oct. 7th, were there multiple, separate, cases of rape by Gazans? | 1735682340000 | JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719043755624 | Shai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unsure", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Shai | 1719084717358 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676635700748 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719084716291 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 4cjn28dq5u | {"NO": 45.53318925807093, "YES": 219.6200214160808} | 0.17172407281926882 | will-some-chinese-scientist-genetic | 126 | Will some scientist genetically engineer a virus that is virulent to anyone who isn't Han Chinese by 2038? | 2177470740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719044024991 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(can come from Han or non-Han scientist)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.3282759271807312} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.626615533778032, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719085382590 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719085379532 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | h9m2x4pr94 | {"NO": 29.676342638081913, "YES": 336.96874719216925} | 0.08094024292489889 | will-costin-alamariu-ever-become-pr | 295 | Will Costin Alamariu ever become president of the USA? | 3723706740000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719046103782 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.4190597570751011} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.331483161628904, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jim | 1719119147337 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719119144270 | 1719076611455 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | q337czcgd1 | {"NO": 951.8484431268795, "YES": 1050.5874198994745} | 0.47534528356294836 | will-we-see-the-rise-of-a-post-scar | 105 | Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ? | 1893452340000 | rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570711449693245 | False | basic | public | 1719048654226 | Guillaume | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The role of the post-scarcity economic summit would be to :", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bring together CEO, Govs, Big economic entities to disc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.024654716437051638} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.503662322276374, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Guillaume | 1719403401566 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700490235027 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719195403877 | 1719403400317 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | op371c8hpa | {"NO": 23.713120839850863, "YES": 421.70746176920693} | 0.053237595579779674 | will-nasa-confirm-the-discovery-of-nwecx0u6y4 | 435 | Will NASA confirm the discovery of aliens before 2025? | 1735673340000 | gMRZIqRNrZed79wbWg9WduEMJwG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.293304824724493 | False | play | public | 1719050054720 | PrAnAv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4467624044202203} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.7446275733152925, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PranavPadmakumar | 1719127572160 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjU_zznYxGBvaBgbXCsWFc9dhZH8lI-NCe-M4nPxnNCInV-W8_xiX_e_FTXavA1PNQ7kXqCuWrnOr6qL-i6eOGUi2i2I9TAB6k9cMvp6-EjKspTRrJumJFBIEBlARnHWpxvv-sRO5Io_QrBUS2FtKE0oQokandSBnu4R0dWzj-rhQrEpLdru0HXWuVidamme171_8Jsn9pnW-gwt-ZI5pQtW4Qc1dBQLLZueTF554kxFKT-y9cyWFGAOb5ny1wijkFqqZ9dc-S1bSvUQ_TNTjWX... | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707180191742 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719127569098 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
s5fex9dspa | which-company-will-be-the-biggest-w-ma6c2yrdge | 0 | Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of 2024? | 1719685740000 | gMRZIqRNrZed79wbWg9WduEMJwG2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719050204881 | PrAnAv | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719685740155 | PranavPadmakumar | 1719050205577 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjU_zznYxGBvaBgbXCsWFc9dhZH8lI-NCe-M4nPxnNCInV-W8_xiX_e_FTXavA1PNQ7kXqCuWrnOr6qL-i6eOGUi2i2I9TAB6k9cMvp6-EjKspTRrJumJFBIEBlARnHWpxvv-sRO5Io_QrBUS2FtKE0oQokandSBnu4R0dWzj-rhQrEpLdru0HXWuVidamme171_8Jsn9pnW-gwt-ZI5pQtW4Qc1dBQLLZueTF554kxFKT-y9cyWFGAOb5ny1wijkFqqZ9dc-S1bSvUQ_TNTjWX... | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707180191742 | 0 | 0.25 | ["g02panvnu6", "rss0rh6no8", "cmpamy6jix"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cjilv9grj5 | which-minecraft-youtube-channels-wi | 336.77838609586104 | Which Minecraft Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1722545940000 | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719059535123 | CyfralCoot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo"}}, {"text": "'s monthly markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only Mi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.201546060366252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 660 | CyfralCoot | 1719847811762 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | 5 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fyx2xdnio2", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Baablu", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.38461538461538, "userId": "PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.38461538461538, "textFts": "'baablu':1", "contractId": "cjilv9grj5", "createdTime": 1719059535124, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "su... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709980441447 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719847808690 | 1719807201408 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1bb71ar2o7 | {"NO": 10.050378152592202, "YES": 994.9874371066223} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-ankwqydtpx | 1751.032834186403 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 24 the it clopsed on June 21? | 1719259404400 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719065489287 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.331973279809832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719259404400 | 100 | JimFix | 1719259404400 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719259049675 | 0.01 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | e162qbzhev | {"NO": 48.443530816346424, "YES": 206.42591139590584} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-pmuxvlpdds | 881.2839558822892 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close hiigher on June 28 than it closed on June 21 (5464.62)? | 1719604899781 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719065920898 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.843549483264693, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719604899781 | 100 | JimFix | 1719604899781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719604666824 | 0.19 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64rbvhapai | how-do-you-feel-about-global-warmin | 0 | How do you feel about global warming? | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719066101878 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | TonyPepperoni | 1719066101903 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | trko4ot7yo | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-think-carefully-before-calling | 0 | Will "Think carefully before calling RL policies "..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719069558156 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719069558189 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4raafqk1m8 | {"NO": 182.97065576087658, "YES": 54.65357250000215} | 0.7699999999999998 | will-the-ssmi-hiccups-cure-work-per | 349.7887551777167 | Will the SSMI hiccups cure work *perfectly* for me? | 1724363940000 | kao73g2es1T46wMoskeGoCSO0KI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719071242190 | Jörn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if SSMI ever fails to cure my hiccup within a minute, YES if it succeeds every time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://web.archive.org/web/20230308051229/https://www.theatlant... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2699999999999998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.501415531613998, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Joern | 1719127520456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Z93xvS1kGC7v3fAQmA1DUaiVZoaIMJKtg2xhJ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671483030508 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719127517435 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | vn4v51p43h | {"NO": 1047.2251548614176, "YES": 753.1764629251695} | 0.18456947444460733 | will-connecting-the-dots-llms-can-i | 50 | Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.867769582210448 | False | public | 1719071959665 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04456947444460732} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.774845138582333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719079620932 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719079617848 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999951 | 98ujdfuk20 | {"NO": 10136.369486557247, "YES": 98.6546515817322} | 1 | will-trump-mention-hunter-biden-in | 11653.52018944341 | Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the first debate? | 1719698340000 | ejrXP65NZobvj5ISjMhXdeKXKI42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.848704259371639 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719072467450 | Sanskriti Manoharan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.010182502827010387, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.8389112571711, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719705533303 | 1000 | SanskritiManoharan | 1719698340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIUAz8XKz6ITl15U6Pr0AamVDFfMHuNUHOnQAuSOgroEIKLC-I8IA=s96-c | 37 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719071882135 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719694117508 | 1719697838973 | 0.99 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | td6ztwn0s4 | {"NO": 3644.9573777637565, "YES": 274.3516305843693} | 1 | will-trump-bring-up-hunter-biden-in | 7998.699634532072 | Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the debate? | 1719538165725 | 8WYU5PC7JwZl5MWDBEIupv9oNKD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.848203770647256 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719072706081 | Mano Samy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 118.85852218230022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719538165725 | 1000 | ManoSamy | 1719538165725 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLw-1Bi89jJT4IzvNHIKY6smWk1dluZWCOLcwRlXFgLkwZx=s96-c | 68 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709579647468 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719538103268 | 1719538123319 | 0.93 | 8WYU5PC7JwZl5MWDBEIupv9oNKD3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | d9ky3ohiul | {"NO": 816.4434280213984, "YES": 1224.8246059417083} | 0.3999687519900463 | will-the-next-gpt-correctly-tell-me | 3402.5025949057876 | Will the next GPT correctly tell me the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30? | 1767250740000 | Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57672965406171 | False | basic | public | 1719074509959 | Eric Neyman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ask the next iteration of ChatGPT the following question: \"What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?\". Will it answer -5 on the first try?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.10003124800995372} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 109.36244032866882, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EricNeyman | 1719541105634 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiPFPOiz1zGjPpuk7iqSJxdcLSra5RL3n0RXK2q=s96-c | 43 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642222980375 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719541102533 | 1719184212278 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 44i7u9zrss | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-parametrically-retargetable-de | 50 | Will "Parametrically retargetable decision-makers t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1719076591638 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719080762871 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719080759801 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | e752p7w7qs | {"NO": 73.45544176714232, "YES": 136.13695268078968} | 0.35046806903764166 | does-claude-35-have-control-vectors | 1299.6115405579208 | Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities? | 1735707540000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719077778563 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5 (either Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus) has at least one control vector enabled by default, where a \"control vector\" is the up-regulation of a specific feature's weights dur... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.12797822155012745, "month": -0.14953193096235834} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.54893691429981, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719731759419 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 16 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719731756366 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | aar07ip4ef | {"NO": 65.12952301243378, "YES": 153.54020016530615} | 0.2978442651591732 | during-the-2024-summer-olympics-wil | 55 | During the 2024 Summer Olympics, will someone mistakenly travel to France for the surfing events? | 1723525140000 | HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719079370248 | TheSchwa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2024 Summer Olympics features one event which does not take place in mainland France: surfing, which will be held in Teahupo'o, Tahiti (9,765 mi from Paris). By the end of the Olympics, will there be a news story reporting that someone (athlete... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20215573484082677} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4597998346938221, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TheSchwa | 1719157005670 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712888273551 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719157002613 | 1719083120770 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ckfhj7ay0q | how-soon-will-private-investment-in | 495 | How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1?
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0.49999999999999994 | x1td4et5n0 | {"NO": 139.68343503749173, "YES": 71.59045020131379} | 0.6611486075508375 | has-trump-had-at-least-one-ministro | 60 | Has Trump had at least one mini-stroke? | 2160881940000 | 6Cx7ia32DOQfMN8ZsagwXnfvHDg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719085661770 | Evan Barker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upon release of medical information or Trump's death, will we discover that he has had mini-strokes prior to 6/22/24? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.16114860755083749} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8164969909314812, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | EvanBarker | 1719257337000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJqgFLh3Q_6EZTMajZIjRjWAs06HAj0t1aL4c8i6La_=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704179172428 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719257333904 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nwykz4ldoq | {"NO": 116.42137414104229, "YES": 85.89488033258556} | 0.5754425142158706 | does-trump-have-lewy-body-dementia | 114.48732674263292 | Does Trump have Lewy Body Dementia? | 2129345940000 | 6Cx7ia32DOQfMN8ZsagwXnfvHDg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719085779880 | Evan Barker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upon his death or release of medical information, will we learn that Trump has had Lewy Body Dementia? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.07544251421587056} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6905289599923576, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | EvanBarker | 1719257325631 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJqgFLh3Q_6EZTMajZIjRjWAs06HAj0t1aL4c8i6La_=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704179172428 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719257322563 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
p4f1hom9o4 | next-releases-or-spinoffs-popular-s | 107 | Next releases OR spin-offs - popular strategy games - by 2029 | 1862002740000 | TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719087257342 | ed | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a different game from the last release, not just an DLC ... ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Remasters, remakes do not count, such as Age of Empires Definitive Edition. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4430005660862206, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1800 | 3d | 1719767854264 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5l133jvvvi", "prob": 0.5460535652294758, "text": "Heroes of Might and Magic ( VIII or some other title ... )", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.67693839261675, "userId": "TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.17687042103996, "textFts": "'hero':1 'magic':5 'might':3 'titl':10 'viii':6", "contr... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709499486885 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719767834699 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xtbe4aax4i | where-will-i-be-living-on-march-31 | 0 | Where will I be living on March 31, 2025? | 1743490740000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719088581730 | Gustavo Lacerda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I'm within a 1.5 hour drive of a city, I'll resolve the question to it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Background:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " I have a lot of freedom (3 ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1140 | GustavoLacerda | 1719089069606 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "pnzesti7ju", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "USA: Asheville", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.384615384615385, "userId": "QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70, "textFts": "'ashevill':2 'usa':1", "contractId": "xtbe4aax4i", "createdTime": 1719088581730, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640762386920 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719088678191 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1gp250xve5 | how-will-the-us-mens-national-team | 14752.641661441141 | How will the US Men's National Team fare in Copa America? | 1719889333509 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | pa5bi73yux | public | 1719090310962 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Among punditry, eliminated in quarterfinals appears to be by far the most likely scenario. ",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.594291849736166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719889333509 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719889333509 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 13 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pa5bi73yux", "prob": 0.9942736314196047, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3294.225468716577, "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.972593282860217, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "1gp250xve5", "resolverId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgH... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719889293239 | 1719889276976 | {"pa5bi73yux": 100} | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | n7x87j8rem | {"NO": 32.73883132322298, "YES": 305.4476777522168} | 0.09680702938957236 | will-super-intelligence-happen-in-c | 340.4699917926724 | Will Super Intelligence happen in China first? | 2051240340000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719090897037 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am making this market vague on purpose", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve YES only if one can comfortably argue super intelligence appeared in China 6 months earlier than in ever... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.40319297061042764} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.0823304551107915, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Sss19971997 | 1719201141521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719201137751 | 0 |
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