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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5050274284127145 | 15c6amfm8f | {"NO": 275.2871096496529, "YES": 38.35908005771367} | 0.8798418846710495 | will-sanji-find-all-blue-before-the | 221 | Will Sanji find All Blue before the end of One Piece? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719092007827 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3798418846710495} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6778665004649334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719128188573 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719128185525 | 1719093023458 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4z80i9hig9 | {"NO": 98.36731059859544, "YES": 101.65978859386234} | 0.4917699201544211 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-isx1ei11kd | 103.73023576382131 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2041? | 2246137140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719092169753 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2041.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.16566056919926464, "month": -0.008230079845578886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7150993914307766, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719732424603 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719732421475 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sxrirn5c78 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-ure9hd92zv | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Ted Kaczynski (Unabomber)? | 1721707140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719093129922 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719102371936 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719102370983 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ilpdtill9u | {"NO": 104.8347768930421, "YES": 95.38819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-israel-be-the-last-country-in | 5 | Will Israel be the last country in West Asia to fall below replacement
fertility rate | 3171067140000 | QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719094204173 | Joshua Bartlett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question West Asian countries are: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Jordan , Saudi Arabia, the UAE , Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Yemen", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaBartlett | 1719339943588 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLrHZK1BMnH4TIzVLpAvx9iyt35hQENFarO6Vwk0Zyj=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695348085515 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719100109528 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kbbn9ea4s7 | what-grade-110-will-i-give-bidens-p | 13088.482345744276 | What grade (1-10) will I give Biden's performance in his first 2024 presidential debate with Trump? | 1719553723770 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.109814207516681 | True | plus | 17skgqax5u | public | 1719094806668 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predict how I will grade Joe Biden's performance in the first 2024 presidential debate on June 27.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 795.122353777646, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719553723770 | 10000 | dlin007 | 1719588596785 | 0 | 37 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "17skgqax5u", "prob": 0.0315685655045674, "text": "1-1.5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 212.77800700103637, "userId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6527.4081116951465, "textFts": "'-1.5':2 '1':1", "contractId": "kbbn9ea4s7", "resolverId": "oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52", "createdTime": 17... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719549865206 | 1719588595084 | {"17skgqax5u": 100} | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | sa1m6xo8lk | {"NO": 1219.3714866430585, "YES": 295.7185987188851} | 0.4016469588352187 | will-loving-a-world-you-dont-trust | 260 | Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.815886721390417 | False | public | 1719095513772 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0.04680552714658731, "week": 0.2650362522477747, "month": 0.2616469588352187} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.894468337726869, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 35 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720208702282 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720208699205 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | 1b4tsygmyz | {"NO": 1637.5808618161022, "YES": 610.6568678941358} | 0.7283842096303403 | will-china-block-anthropiccom-befor | 1068 | Will China block anthropic.com before 2025? | 1735660740000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60850583034161 | False | basic | public | 1719102886629 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China tends to block many western AIs, such as ChatGPT and Claude, which are not available without a VPN in China.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Claude is not available in China, but that's mostly a rest... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.059553193170170826, "month": 0.22838420963034034} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.53117524466711, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | bohaska | 1719810291494 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719810288425 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tg9h1kii78 | {"NO": 506.14906777095996, "YES": 1975.7025423437399} | 0.20394010089409342 | if-elon-musk-leaves-tesla-will-tesl | 1611.2302450238285 | If Elon Musk leaves Tesla, will Tesla stock be up by the next end of trading day? | 1735718340000 | XgQOcQ4pTiXc6zFeOjdEnQbkCbu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.643780392520807 | False | basic | public | 1719103468856 | Brandon Perry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Elon Musk leaves, will stonks go up? Resolves as undecided if he doesn't leave by EOY. If stock remains the same price, this will resolve as No.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2960598991059066} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.739459197746115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BrandonPerry | 1719156850222 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL2D0rn6m47ASn5BuD075ttY409pHfBeL--QH6NKaWc=s96-c | 31 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694823978532 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719156847165 | 1719121280383 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 3ahrvezmjz | {"NO": 135.98502455707336, "YES": 76.50842461431047} | 0.6399492553174964 | will-juul-products-be-sold-in-7-ele | 35 | Will Juul products be sold in 7 Eleven stores again before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719105879726 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-reverses-juul-marketing-ban/story?id=110900909", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-reverses-juul-marketing-ban/story?id=110900909", "class": "break-anyw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.13994925531749636} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0149754429266482, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719160730044 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719160726984 | 1719105886690 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
w4loy3vyi3 | when-will-berkeley-have-bad-air-150 | 3 | When will Berkeley have bad air (>150 AQI) due to wildfire smoke this year? | 1730530740000 | uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719108313756 | Karl K. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "first", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " date this summer or fall where there is a day of >150 PM2.5 AQI in Berkeley (as measured on PurpleAir), and there are news repor... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14776925060503993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KarlK | 1719112409588 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "jcujh192un", "prob": 0.09213972179897627, "text": "Before July 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.429075586921998, "userId": "uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.34621200238163, "textFts": "'1':3 'juli':2", "contractId": "w4loy3vyi3", "createdTime": 1719108313756, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717562289725 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719112406387 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | r639f03sbd | {"NO": 852.8802427206091, "YES": 1172.4975558234205} | 1 | will-there-be-a-season-3-of-intervi | 300 | Will there be a Season 3 of 'Interview with the Vampire' on AMC+? | 1719779678053 | jY8DXE2MghZCBSgP0cdMvzYSZsg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574269161688616 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719108405867 | Noel Sunny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Its a fun show. I didn't realize I would enjoy it so much. Haven't seen any announcement for season 3 yet. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletLis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5789031343516682, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.5604335005601, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719779718899 | 1000 | NoelSunny | 1719779758955 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ4bycpNzilSpst8OWrvLReqIt3zOVQDCR0uVTWLZFuJlTn=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700942106063 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719413022286 | 1719779757957 | 0.42 | jY8DXE2MghZCBSgP0cdMvzYSZsg1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | knd714u0cf | {"NO": 145.94736703266332, "YES": 71.28597254975872} | 0.6718460771869152 | will-juul-products-be-sold-in-7-ele-f9cztx62mv | 55 | Will Juul products be sold in 7 Eleven stores again before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719108983343 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-reverses-juul-marketing-ban/story?id=110900909", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-reverses-juul-marketing-ban/story?id=110900909", "class": "break-anyw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17184607718691525} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6020171204862477, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719402162319 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719402159258 | 1719158183770 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
esg6e2sn2m | what-do-you-think-is-the-biggest-pr | 0 | What do you think is the biggest problem in the universe? | 1721707140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719109423409 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by the podcast(s) of a similar name", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "txR5ODhZlIT1m6S1G1Lf", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifold-pick-as-the-bigg"}}, {"text": " ", "type... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719463618476 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719463617368 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | 7tlr36r5tf | {"NO": 66.90363502525207, "YES": 149.46870967811645} | 0.309206036090112 | will-starliner-return-with-crew-bef | 657.5162489211652 | Will Starliner return with Crew before Starship integrated test flight 5 ? | 1735707540000 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719109914395 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES: starliner returns ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "with crew", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " before IFT 5 launches", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO: IFT5 launches before starliner retu... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.5658726943261551, "month": -0.190793963909888} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.375675880046384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Blomfilter | 1720132293112 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677201572009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720132290012 | 1719671909624 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u6kfbljq1r | did-kendrick-or-drake-win | 0 | Did Kendrick or Drake win? | 1719143637172 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719110239044 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719143640301 | strutheo | 1719143637557 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | ["bvva74b87c"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | bodvusmjzn | {"NO": 821.8815868009456, "YES": 1216.7202867901624} | 0.4031594385583275 | will-tetraspace-have-a-car-in-the-n | 378.49910384932156 | Will Tetraspace have a car in the next ten years? | 2051251140000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576317027554904 | False | basic | public | 1719110510972 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09684056144167252} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.667078163682941, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1719358750813 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719291469313 | 1719358749791 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4722553657236615 | q91xzltuqc | {"NO": 308.9620424604254, "YES": 3698.011635492615} | 0.06956279103001947 | will-nvidia-nvda-end-44-at-or-above | 5878.980773312073 | Will Nvidia NVDA end 4/4 at or above $444 USD per share? | 1743825540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.86804549824135 | False | basic | public | 1719110528163 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Divide if splits again", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.4304372089699806} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.00759119531265, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719276103184 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719276100123 | 1719255735598 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48348431300412636 | vykjmkeeq8 | {"NO": 165.52414936165331, "YES": 243.87570416241743} | 0.388498434580037 | will-noam-chomsky-and-jimmy-carter | 55 | Will Noam Chomsky AND Jimmy Carter live to see the AP call the next presidential election? | 1733115540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719114075784 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.11150156541996298} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6777125990423583, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1719252797722 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719252794664 | 1719173579475 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | c6iiqdbejv | {"NO": 2911.977148688249, "YES": 343.4092882392524} | 0.8945104383480295 | will-the-podcast-dear-hank-and-john | 2807.4435935141655 | Will the podcast “Dear Hank and John” be renamed “Dear John and Hank” in 2028? | 1861880340000 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.756357190875 | False | basic | public | 1719114367797 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.39451043834802946} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.71946844406843, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | keltan | 1719271536247 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719229072375 | 1719271535241 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | t8bv16pb3g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-avatar-movies-involve-prog | 0 | Will the avatar movies involve programming Pandora | 1775026740000 | U6jjBfDcBUblSknI9D5GxhWhgNu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719114733324 | Alok Singh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it looks like programming to people here, it's programming. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | alok | 1719114733354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucraZdhILF6UzF0e7M6E1oVMYcpSYXzdKXSiPL7kC5E=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659229567122 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | r6mglpftn3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-cunnilingus-ability-be-correla | 0 | Will cunnilingus ability be correlated with being a cat person | 1851231540000 | U6jjBfDcBUblSknI9D5GxhWhgNu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719114918433 | Alok Singh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whenever this can be determined", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | alok | 1719149178916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucraZdhILF6UzF0e7M6E1oVMYcpSYXzdKXSiPL7kC5E=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659229567122 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719149177670 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dy924x75zc | when-will-sustainable-nuclear-fusio | 30 | when will sustainable nuclear fusion will be achieved ? | 1721759340000 | BB1wt4antQfUIsNYIRyvEW1mp9T2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719117428637 | Please mind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pls comment down your reasons if any researchers working on these ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8547967835196708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Pleasemind | 1719159826813 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrzflBOLiFjPoHP6KKi4R6buGzN4gEmVMKYpmew6FjmAjqpZc=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ryg8wba0ei", "prob": 0.2848841022592976, "text": "before 2030", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.779233374321423, "userId": "BB1wt4antQfUIsNYIRyvEW1mp9T2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.60902188170329, "textFts": "'2030':2", "contractId": "dy924x75zc", "createdTime": 1719117428637, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08766220... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718786036887 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719159823763 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7vs7jo71of | who-will-represent-the-united-state | 600 | Who will represent the United States in the men's 1500m run at the Paris Olympics? | 1719276776740 | Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719117785516 | William Lane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Men's 1500m finals is Monday, June 24th in Eugene, OR.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.766465229887324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719276776740 | 1300 | wglane | 1719276776740 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6j7SyA4Olku7rWuXSwdVy275j7x7ZjGOUjBEiHnA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "lyir2o2l1a", "prob": 0.86, "text": "Yared Nuguse", "index": 0, "poolNo": 247.1149894125185, "userId": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.466990787461384, "textFts": "'nugus':2 'yare':1", "contractId": "7vs7jo71of", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2", ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674597873798 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719268733257 | 0.31 | Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 202uu6bhpr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-a-book-on-jimmy-carters-last-y | 0 | Will a book on Jimmy Carter's last year of life be published by 2029 | 1893473940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719119312988 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719119313020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | p4p4e34x6n | {"NO": 65.12957274541006, "YES": 153.540082921928} | 0.29784458454762297 | will-any-manifold-user-be-able-to-v | 55 | Will any manifold user be able to visit Jimmy Carter before he dies | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719119358971 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.20215541545237703} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4599170780720048, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719203812477 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719203809429 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | jwz5w14u17 | {"NO": 420.0840252084028, "YES": 2380.4761428476136} | 0.15000000000000027 | will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-s5qt9tla83 | 10440.82890316185 | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump suffer a serious medical emergency before the election? | 1730879940000 | wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632551981953464 | False | basic | public | 1719123029748 | winthefin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I define “serious” as anything that requires hospitalization or a visit to the emergency department. An accident that results in trauma requiring advanced care such as hospitalization will also count. It does not count if the trauma is intentionall... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.009611585545890339, "month": -0.34999999999999976} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 149.81982386079525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WinstonWalker | 1720017316962 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702834154769 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720017313422 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3886t7ucdi | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | will-andres-gomez-emilsson-have-a-b | 5 | Will Andres Gomez Emilsson have a babby by 2040? | 2209006740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719123325176 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719136623805 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719136620672 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1ck63pp6dh | who-among-these-favorites-do-you-th | 0 | Who among these favorites do you think would be Trump's best VP pick for the best possible results in the election? | 1719784740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719125031104 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thanks for answering the poll 🧡 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just for my personal interest. Feel free to share your arguments in the comments. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"},... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719784740207 | Lion | 1719339278268 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 78 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719339277010 | ["9q80qcqga0"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3w00ehvp7x | -2024-nd4gk4bk22 | 621.1080265056444 | מה יקרה במסדר כנפיים סניף רמת גן צפון 2024? | 1719349140000 | spHUA1pX6gR2dWoNl2Mdp532wDv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1719127990396 | נדב דן תמרי | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.077566189504513, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719473070994 | 100 | 30f4 | 1719349140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKR_mlIA9BBOaaRva9KyYAWXsfS-loaF_x-TzI_YmZ7kRFR_w=s96-c | 5 | 4 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "qrhjcxy7h3", "prob": 0.25, "text": "המופע ייגמר אחרי 20:00", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.622504486493881, "userId": "spHUA1pX6gR2dWoNl2Mdp532wDv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.867513459480882, "textFts": "'00':5 '20':4 'אחרי':3 'המופע':1 'ייגמר':2", "contractId": "3w00ehvp7x", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715945856693 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719347487478 | 0.5 | spHUA1pX6gR2dWoNl2Mdp532wDv2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2jlvukjahb | which-football-coach-will-lose-thei | 262 | Which football coach will lose their post in 2024? | 1735685940000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719140897522 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new answers! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counting both coaches volountarily retiring from their posts and getting sacked. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.087855322798011, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719399278960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 4 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "xufbxfr69i", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Michal Probierz", "index": 0, "poolNo": 142.85714285714286, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.85714285714286, "textFts": "'michal':1 'probierz':2", "contractId": "2jlvukjahb", "createdTime": 1719140897522, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719399275907 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bdpu1qrs6o | which-of-the-following-active-footb | 830 | Which of the following active football players will announce their retirement from national football in 2024? | 1735685940000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719141384673 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new answers. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.68426370596756, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719342265202 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 6 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "j2bey7lvx7", "prob": 0.8978866729713307, "text": "Wojciech Szczęsny", "index": 0, "poolNo": 593.0612453112649, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.44665971050966, "textFts": "'szczęsni':2 'wojciech':1", "contractId": "bdpu1qrs6o", "createdTime": 1719141384673, "probChanges... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719342262144 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pxay673x2u | {"NO": 1093.5589279422368, "YES": 914.4454628354708} | 0.5445998688870881 | will-anyone-be-charged-with-a-crimi | 659.6473741198374 | Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election? | 1751666340000 | rUI8lj6FurQkk7ikuDfuJ5i7UIu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571575564972168 | False | basic | public | 1719142102310 | Kurgan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any individual is charged with a criminal offence in connection with the placing of bets on the timing of the upcoming (July 4th) general election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0902312598831454, "month": 0.04459986888708811} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.986581139696874, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Kurgan | 1719909591445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte9FaCKbiAw0pPQkMoWQvI9kjj1u8LRBGPaRVwKyBrx=s96-c | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692446046009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719909588353 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1ft60lrubs | june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve | 0 | [June 2024] - Has weak AGI been achieved? | 1719806340000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719143300451 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On or before June 23, 2024, had weak artificial general intelligence (AGI) been achieved?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is one of a series of monthly polls tracking public opinion ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719806340161 | SteveSokolowski | 1719190814530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | 0.25 | ["30nme775s2"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | n50s8hvffd | {"NO": 92.76328296100891, "YES": 107.8012730985738} | 0.4625108482949064 | will-the-painting-attributed-to-tar | 57 | Will the painting attributed to Tarsila do Amaral and put up for sale during SP-Arte 2024 be considered authentic? | 1728183540000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719145966147 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A painting, dated 1925 and attributed to renowned Brazilian modernist Tarsila do Amaral, was put up for sale by the OMA ga... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03748915170509359} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8595158262533165, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719264007342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719264004276 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ivtfezx70 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-teortaxes-have-a-girlfriend-by | 0 | Will teortaxes have a girlfriend by EOY 2027? | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146063679 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719162336384 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719162335290 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y4pwgmdq1h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-cremieux-have-a-girlfriend-by | 0 | Will Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil) have a girlfriend by EOY 2027? | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146076800 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719146107020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wb2bi5konm | {"NO": 180.01207758373312, "YES": 55.551828156355086} | 0.7641751269922958 | will-any-video-games-be-based-on-ex | 82 | Will any video games be based on exploring the interior of a computer chip/GPU/SSD as a world in and of itself by 2028? | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146192633 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.26417512699229584} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9879224162668987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719157500682 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719157497629 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eox0k26nrr | for-which-n-will-this-market-get-n2 | 473.7811794428214 | For which N will this market get N^2 traders after N months? | 1726600080000 | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146615245 | M L | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will adjust the market closing date for each new trader. For instance, with 6 traders, the market will close after sqrt(6)*30.5 days = 74.7 days in total.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Primarily inspir... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.720709962537403, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ML12d1 | 1720093634625 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | 8 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "gsoxnhvjs8", "prob": 0.005939456990881817, "text": "N < 1.5 (N^2 < 2.25)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7284306348900114, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 289.2797604410749, "textFts": "'1.5':2 '2':4 '2.25':5 'n':1,3", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706799245162 | 0 | 0.25 | False | 1720093631270 | 1719147302037 | True | new | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7o1n5c2v4z | when-will-instituto-butantas-dengue | 22.645601265957485 | When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa? | 1767236340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146917699 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instituto Butantã has been working on a dengue vaccine since the late 1990s. This vaccine is unique as it is a single-dose... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9968009610279972, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719426935288 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yr26vu0zpi", "prob": 0.09175603139334734, "text": "2024.Q3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.487993835200479, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.22118720366998, "textFts": "'2024':1 'q3':2", "contractId": "7o1n5c2v4z", "createdTime": 1719146917699, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719426932091 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nzehb507op | which-countries-will-refuse-to-reco | 15 | Which countries will refuse to recognize the results of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential elections? | 1722808740000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719147176400 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The three groups of nations listed as answers made official statements following the 2018 presidential elections saying they would not recognize the results due to concerns with the process. This market resolves Yes to each option that releases an ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4533153365700164, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartyDettmann | 1719234800970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7abarlse6u", "prob": 0.5674030988144905, "text": "EU", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.17533834572827, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.105468589394768, "textFts": "'eu':1", "contractId": "nzehb507op", "createdTime": 1719147176400, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719234797783 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | rns2bx68ph | {"NO": 1800.5623412558027, "YES": 555.3820476454881} | 0.7642635156152847 | will-apple-intelligence-be-delayed | 4563.323923659833 | Will Apple Intelligence be deployed in the EU within 12 months of deployment in the USA? | 1766638740000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629233981376489 | False | basic | public | 1719147346046 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple has said it will delay deployment of Apple Intelligence in the EU citing DMA concerns. Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2642635156152847} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 111.9882281575597, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719325730220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 59 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719325727153 | 1719178070212 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 0odd65dzft | {"NO": 459.0871545203256, "YES": 2178.235635986899} | 0.174073176090831 | will-apple-face-regulatory-action-f | 1656.6945024987526 | Will Apple face regulatory action from the EU for failing to deploy Apple Intelligence? | 1766638740000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.666917932784882 | False | basic | public | 1719147614160 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple is refusing to do so in the EU at least for now, citing the DMA: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns", "type": "text", "marks": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.325926823909169} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.398637789056345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719314695353 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 23 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719314692235 | 1719274903346 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t1ydemq1mt | {"NO": 163.09620301970412, "YES": 61.31350586249927} | 0.7267787291026531 | will-argentina-grant-asylum-or-shel | 115 | Will Argentina grant asylum or shelter to any fugitives from the 1/8/2023 attempted coup in Brazil by the end of 2024? | 1735700340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719147740032 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 8, 2023, an attempted coup took place in Brazil, leading to numerous investigations and arrests. Some of the in... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.22677872910265306} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.074459206960326, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719426946808 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719426943715 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vk5legrpt2 | who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-rio-de | 116.11266816255903 | Who will be elected mayor of Rio de Janeiro in the 2024 Elections? | 1730084340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719148048230 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.856938570417636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719495173334 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "aoycu1n5wo", "prob": 0.18179334056041213, "text": "Alexandre Ramagem (PL)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.527316604951476, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.37933343329756, "textFts": "'alexandr':1 'pl':3 'ramagem':2", "contractId": "vk5legrpt2", "createdTime": 1719148048230, ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719495170097 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 4io96hv9xj | {"NO": 227.36298783649073, "YES": 43.98253249201473} | 0.8379094947328884 | will-petrobras-be-granted-permissio | 130 | Will Petrobras be granted permission to search for oil in the mouth of the Amazon River by the end of 2024? | 1735700340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719148712106 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last year (2023), Petrobras was denied a license to explore block 59 in the Foz do Amazonas basin by the Brazilian Institu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.33790949473288845} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6370121635092474, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719227801244 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719227798177 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qjxoxq3tme | how-many-mayors-will-the-workers-pa | 57.74875597520025 | How many mayors will the Workers' Party (PT) elect in the 2024 local elections in Brazil? | 1730084340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719149626676 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/relembre-quantos-prefeitos-e-vereadores-cada-partido-elegeu-em-2020/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/rel... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1171533351824305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719932775313 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ufzuo6gpmx", "prob": 0.051101537207374696, "text": "≥ 638 (equal or more than it elected in 2012)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.189100869314917, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.35580664016122, "textFts": "'2012':9 '638':1 'elect':7 'equal':2", "contractId": "qjxoxq3tme", "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719932772027 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wohlp27bav | which-party-will-elect-the-largest | 58.621035018114085 | Which party will elect the largest number of mayors in the 2024 municipal elections in Brazil? | 1730084340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719150046093 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1636729546086744, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719427005999 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1k8lfk2ylx", "prob": 0.16386745183589393, "text": "MDB", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.366229421176065, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.68862819358978, "textFts": "'mdb':1", "contractId": "wohlp27bav", "createdTime": 1719150046093, "probChanges": {"day": 0.04426724171237259,... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719427002848 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48975995509227177 | z08qm5fsvu | {"NO": 106.0505618573577, "YES": 385.1462536836848} | 0.20904805324118084 | will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above | 430 | Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? | 1738558740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719152076271 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Divide if splits again", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.072621699934216, "month": -0.2909519467588192} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.72498513570761, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1720010026322 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720010023119 | 1719152082457 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 1k803azvhb | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-rdgnc1cpta | 50 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 39 and 40? | 1719784847264 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719168085740 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4764098414564849, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719784850199 | 1000 | dwax | 1719784847264 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719169985748 | 0.48 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | igt6gk2bgo | {"NO": 127.85616034976783, "YES": 7821.289152312735} | 0 | how-will-this-disputed-market-on-po | 8806.035876587443 | How will this disputed market on Polymarket resolve? [Was Barron involved in $DJT?] | 1719425399789 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863565512373215 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719169104808 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the original market and details can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 82.73539400316207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719425399789 | 1000 | shankypanky | 1719534711020 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698976802308 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425392991 | 1719534709776 | 0.02 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2974564868578255 | ct30h17f23 | {"NO": 7578.602059051519, "YES": 18386.382655243502} | 0.14858772477897195 | will-messaging-apps-with-endtoend-e | 10873.952573089808 | Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0752858125572455 | False | plus | public | 1719169559356 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if four of the seven nations in G7 (France, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada) have banned messaging apps that use end-to-end encryption, or have otherwise made these apps non-functional or non-private... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.008849088484874146, "month": -0.351412275221028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 151.305302242681, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ZacParker | 1719699752059 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648110702205 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699748776 | 1719175484218 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ayfa13lphu | how-many-of-the-original-options-in | 92 | How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES? | 1798772340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719170140414 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meta-market on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/br-congress-20242026-megamarket-whi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/br-congre... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6217327176734928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719173294382 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "i5nc8da672", "prob": 0.14493858072423366, "text": "0-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.404032546100554, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.57937328074706, "textFts": "'-3':2 '0':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719173291251 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
su7kh3x7wr | how-many-women-mayors-will-brazil-e | 46.08321657483887 | How many women mayors will Brazil elect in capital cities in the 2024 local elections? | 1730084340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719173148061 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved according to data from the Brazilian Electoral Court, or according to reputable media sources. Only state capitals will be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.604044770014184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719427069050 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y8r5p22jru", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": ">6 (more than the historical record)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'6':1 'histor':5 'record':6", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719427065419 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ll19rhs4hy | what-websocial-mediainternet-usage | 37477.0428625126 | What web/social media/internet usage habits will a majority of Manifold users describe as a "red flag"? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1740805140000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.570616540739003 | False | plus | public | 1719173200937 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Red flag = a warning of danger, usually used in the context of behavior that is considered problematic or that signifies an increased likelihood that someone engages in other behaviors that are problematic.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 719.1386624310885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3131.095206396568 | 40000 | ZacParker | 1720211607313 | 0 | 65 | 10 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "1o3uy53lc3", "prob": 0.1610258718025801, "text": "Using X, formerly Twitter for more than 2 hours a week", "index": 0, "poolNo": 325.6841963755325, "userId": "fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1696.873997098034, "textFts": "'2':8 'former':3 'hour':9 'twitter':4 'use':1 'week':11 'x':2... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648110702205 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720211604175 | 1719262330951 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0o5uq3fv2s | which-game-will-win-game-of-the-yea-doutfdj57t | 273.2367018925249 | Which game will win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719175300178 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Award_for_Game_of_the_Year", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Award_for_Game_of_the_Year", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:dec... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.520544463800537, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | strutheo | 1719267159359 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dabe0jyylt", "prob": 0.05777046030700928, "text": "Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.880098948419516, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 568.8903879588402, "textFts": "'elden':1 'erdtre':6 'ring':2 'shadow':3", "contractId": "0o5uq3fv2s", "createdT... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719267156141 | 1719264256621 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 47hur3eu39 | {"NO": 104.17013010475125, "YES": 95.99680820158538} | 0.520416263475683 | will-i-achieve-the-1st-jhana-during | 15 | Will I achieve the 1st jhana during the summer? | 1725227940000 | D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719176110978 | P. Jain | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Forfeit (app that takes money unless evidence for a goal is provided) for additional motivation.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "TWIM + breath concentration.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02041626347568304} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5028189865806665, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | logaems | 1719580114608 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLogaems%2Flove-images%2Fmrjjwft5DS.37?alt=media&token=f563a08f-6e8a-40cb-b796-89cad49e1476 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686156720394 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719201434364 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | apwoohx5rw | {"NO": 104.99369271344963, "YES": 95.24381647659686} | 0.5243457788610403 | will-contrapoints-release-a-video-f | 47 | Will Contrapoints release a video following Twilight on YouTube by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719178275639 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02434577886104028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.579449403487955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719332848938 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719332845860 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dv5pzhi3lg | {"NO": 429.9096692144434, "YES": 2326.0700365899347} | 0.15599159468010934 | which-number-is-smaller-between-4-o | 29239.377649552127 | Which number is smaller between 4 (YES) and -10 (NO), according to Mathematicians? | 1719608701627 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.531523505778049 | False | basic | public | 1719178467360 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll ask mathematicians in my university's mathematics society's discord server to vote on this. Most are undergrads or grad students, and the results of the poll may reflect this.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.34400840531989063} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 589.3707159858021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1720188348526 | 0 | 163 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719608090581 | 1720188346560 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0qjiouurzv | conditional-on-donald-trump-selecti-jau51p6rr2 | 3842.3068132307026 | Conditional on Donald Trump selecting Marco Rubio as VP nominee, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1735718340000 | n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719182214609 | Mike Linksvayer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump does not select Marco Rubio as the VP nominee, this market will resolve as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Format copied for questions below about other potential VP nomin... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.388497373579305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeLinksvayer | 1720144377757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMEt_vp87oGWCPN6fczOoU_PSbnY8JZQWWdkXjXQ=s96-c | 20 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vx71hymu0f", "prob": 0.5299137470453076, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 306.4948591968205, "userId": "n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 271.89145537941795, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "0qjiouurzv", "createdTime": 1719182214609, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678567919781 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720144374661 | 1719183323218 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rzm9cdpete | when-will-san-francisco-have-bad-ai | 100 | When will San Francisco have bad air quality in 2024? | 1735718340000 | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719183058465 | Kronopath | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Summary", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "San Francisco tends to occasionally get really bad air quality due to nearby wildfires. This market is intended to capture and predict if/when this will h... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.505261106119921, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Kronopath | 1719240966606 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "mvym2tycz6", "prob": 0.26105009888506614, "text": "June", "index": 0, "poolNo": 84.90952147587782, "userId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 240.35188175102294, "textFts": "'june':1", "contractId": "rzm9cdpete", "createdTime": 1719183058465, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14223787323787... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645681364132 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719240963211 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | nj5mis83os | {"NO": 67.27517205399435, "YES": 148.64324675341012} | 0.31157680954491723 | will-repligatejanus-win-a-turing-aw | 50 | Will repligate/janus win a turing award | 2366859540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719183723919 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18842319045508277} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3567532465898609, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719208306471 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719208303425 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | agw07d7iyf | {"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677} | 0.3931377340057284 | will-greg-yang-win-a-turing-award | 25 | Will Greg Yang win a turing award | 2461467540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719183749891 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686226599427162} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719201422312 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719201419257 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jdth4itlyq | {"NO": 536.541259498353, "YES": 18.637895637978758} | 1 | will-inside-out-2-gross-over-a-bill | 525.0358000471425 | Will Inside Out 2 gross over a billion dollars? | 1719775955520 | x9RZMYRK9AUjim6wjSPdbplgipO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719192259486 | SpiderMark | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going by worldwide gross by the end of September 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/", "c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04979640045106404, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.144491041815952, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719775955520 | 100 | MarkBcb80 | 1719775955520 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLU_kpsIj10OgsXjbnpbkscfx3IoksnrdzPksfWhA5B=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700547117341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681134699 | 0.97 | x9RZMYRK9AUjim6wjSPdbplgipO2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | g2r4r6ojzd | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction? | 1721235600000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719193715516 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Xl25hoLys.png?alt=media&token=b5862fd9-7... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719194246119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | a70uogj4np | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i-mwdt0ps1bq | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction? | 1726210740000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719193899548 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Xl25hoLys.png?alt=media&token=b5862fd9-7... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719193899580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999917 | nnf5itpy1a | {"NO": 1756.4834208815057, "YES": 569.319350306277} | 0 | will-biden-say-the-word-folks-more | 3648.7243463327513 | Will Biden say the word "Folks" more than 4 times in the CNN presidential debate on June 27, 2024? | 1719544748975 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620286432495398 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719194023236 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden says \"Folks\" exactly 4 times, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the 2020 debates, Biden said \"Folks\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.18864240403549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719628729438 | 1000 | BishopG | 1719544748975 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 48 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719541004719 | 0.76 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mxnhvlv2ks | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i-gi2mkoks7h | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) pass or fail an initial strike sanction and by what margin? | 1721235600000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719194195307 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLb5I-fAUSZ.png?alt=media&token=cc5422fc-0... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719194213426 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fyfbs9h2yh", "prob": 0.1, "text": "Pass; 90 - 100%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.55555555555556, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'100':3 '90':2 'pass':1", "contractId": "mxnhvlv2ks", "createdTime": 1719194195307, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | 0.25 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vas834atut | who-will-be-the-top-10-picks-in-the | 39393.137926149386 | Who will be the top 10 picks in the 2024 NBA Draft? | 1719450626931 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719195869669 | Paper Boy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number one pick will resolve to 100%, the second pick will resolve to 90%, and so on down to 10% for the 10th pick. Anyone who isn’t selected in the top 10 will resolve to 0%", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 342.7324999715938, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719450626931 | 2100 | PaperBoy | 1719450626931 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | 20 | 13 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0h1wfgtedj", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Zaccharie Risacher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 994.9874371066194, "userId": "yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.050378152592089, "textFts": "'risach':2 'zacchari':1", "contractId": "vas834atut", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699382550755 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719450505306 | 1719447582635 | 0.01 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
t1aqjxiynz | shortfuse-renoir-vs-rego-which-pain | 39452.2498787206 | [short-fuse] RENOIR vs REGO: which painting will sell for more at the Sotheby's auction? (pics included) | 1719346447367 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.844331650926156 | True | basic | vs30vfcd4l | public | 1719200102814 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This week, Sotheby's will host its ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction in London", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/modern-contemporary-evenin... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.33103253320661, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719346447367 | 2000 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 22 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vs30vfcd4l", "prob": 0.9976208281329872, "text": "Pierre-Auguste Renoir - Bouquet de lilas", "color": "#4caf50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20187.340048462673, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.14369363459127, "textFts": "'august':3 'bouquet':5 'de':6 'lila':7 'pierr':2 'pier... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719346442264 | 1719593278278 | {"vs30vfcd4l": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999995 | yzmlrhy43r | {"NO": 386.94763640535564, "YES": 25.84329004538555} | 0.9373937545876035 | will-there-be-fourty-or-more-inches | 383.6664232499364 | Will there be 40 inches of rain in Central Park this year? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719202256142 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.43739375458760354} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.931947574375452, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719320727490 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719320724273 | 1719205377987 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | yl5pkook7t | {"NO": 97.89667837114675, "YES": 102.14851174100016} | 0.4893728177931451 | will-there-be-50-or-more-inches-of | 12 | Will there be 50 inches of rain in Central Park this year? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719202393580 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01062718220685488} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.404905020459596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719219209088 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719219206048 | 1719205382441 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000031 | mjfklvgla2 | {"NO": 9920.566142714622, "YES": 100.80069883253304} | 0.9899414221207204 | metaculus-will-nigel-farage-be-elec | 9758.406946771123 | [Metaculus] Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | 1720263600000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849883692120336 | False | public | 1719202756764 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on ... | BINARY | {"day": 0.003527911715116794, "week": 0.17072999317808346, "month": 0.48994142212072045} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.07618148879823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1401 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1720211733524 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 15 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720211730449 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8op1zxtf53 | what-vehicle-will-suni-and-butch-le | 17579.86490967009 | What vehicle will Suni and Butch leave the ISS on? | 1721800740000 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719204105411 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starliner's return has been ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "delayed again", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/science/boeing-starliner-astronauts-return-scn/index.html", "class": "break-anywh... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 134.15591510550047, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EvanDaniel | 1720043655375 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 39 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "lsxk5d56qs", "prob": 0.8607999078263541, "text": "Starliner", "index": 0, "poolNo": 717.8615981413872, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 116.08551502001288, "textFts": "'starlin':1", "contractId": "8op1zxtf53", "createdTime": 1719204105412, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0600622... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720043652263 | 1719482027649 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
r8qn9j6ugm | which-of-these-four-celebrities-wil | 5 | Will Dick Van Dyke, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough or Gene Shalit live the longest? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719205209177 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person who lives the longest (dies after the other three) will resolve YES, the rest will resolve NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Shalit", "type": "te... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1717827256275219, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719213696726 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "waj9n2ej8t", "prob": 0.22443986637252847, "text": "Dick Van Dyke", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.52929139785118, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.66203209044319, "textFts": "'dick':1 'dyke':3 'van':2", "contractId": "r8qn9j6ugm", "createdTime": 1719205209177, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719213693644 | 1719205801086 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | d7het0c1xg | {"NO": 1204.612674967754, "YES": 830.1423526253114} | 0.5920185273569294 | will-homosexuality-be-legal-in-duba | 3198.11887550299 | Will homosexuality be legal in Dubai in 2035 (partially or fully)? | 2051283540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.491693128655104 | False | basic | public | 1719206152281 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Homosexuality is illegal in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and under the federal criminal provisions, consensual same-sex sexual activity is punishable by imprisonment; extra-marital sexual activity between persons o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1901588424022972, "month": 0.09201852735692939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.3882195842543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719884061575 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 46 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719884058424 | 1719292873644 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9fa1e2bx9x | {"NO": 742.6465916436737, "YES": 1346.535500535639} | 0.3554724092379082 | will-a-public-gay-pride-legally-tak | 1109 | Will a public gay pride legally take place in the UAE by 2040? | 2209049940000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58413066198303 | False | basic | public | 1719206665840 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of 2024, homosexuality is de jure illegal in the UAE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By January 1st, 2040, will at least one public gay pride event legally take place somewhere in the UAE?... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.14452759076209182} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.05575700471892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719292888896 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719274548611 | 1719292887711 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t11ghrtzkh | {"NO": 1067.7083284842872, "YES": 936.5853701072036} | 0.5327105150480765 | will-there-be-an-active-synagogue-i | 70 | Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035? | 2051283540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570999786888889 | False | basic | public | 1719207217885 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jewish population is growing in Dubai, however, as of 2024, there is no synagogue and local Jews gather in private homes or hotels", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/government/2022/0... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.03271051504807654} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.291671515712798, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719293003206 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719293000027 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16613j0awm | when-will-i-get-negative-covid-test | 14 | When will I get negative covid test result? | 1719817140000 | hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719208000099 | Warty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I got covid probably at vibecamp (june 13-16), first noticed symptoms June 18, last tested today (June 23), positive", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I want it to be negative and hang out with people when w... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5758959338130941, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | warty | 1719390070517 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b4802j43t5", "prob": 0.09649498183056618, "text": "24 june", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.670854357813795, "userId": "hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.460765041079185, "textFts": "'24':1 'june':2", "contractId": "16613j0awm", "createdTime": 1719208000099, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0361... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1654662071699 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719252940386 | 1719390069345 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iln9nbkmwc | hololive-english-justice-which-tale | 10 | [Hololive English -Justice-] Which talent will leave Hololive last? | 4133977140000 | cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719211764921 | Oskar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a talent is terminated or graduates they will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when there is only one talent left, which will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22959651259434535, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | nollfem | 1719558268327 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pa67ud228u", "prob": 0.3363720621765182, "text": "Elizabeth Rose Bloodflame", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.55213790417772, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.547282098761045, "textFts": "'bloodflam':3 'elizabeth':1 'rose':2", "contractId": "iln9nbkmwc", "createdTime": 1719211... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675414964663 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719558265260 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xx0jxyycyv | what-is-the-probability-of-dying-in | 18.612981659629853 | What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN? | 1735711140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719212335912 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj", "label": "/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.56170624708915, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1719458139714 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "k7ef7sfcxp", "prob": 0.1971829776787058, "text": "1/36", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.306579124214798, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.248259496420324, "textFts": "'1/36':1", "contractId": "xx0jxyycyv", "createdTime": 1719212335912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.052... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719216087604 | 1719458138326 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999956 | qh1d9ye1sp | {"NO": 1034.937634624101, "YES": 9.66241797133242} | 0.9907501268573317 | will-openai-begin-rolling-out-the-n | 5551.835073746805 | Will OpenAI begin rolling out the new GPT-4o voice mode before July 15th? | 1721879940000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719213482132 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, from now until through July 14th, some portion of non-insider users are able to use the fancier voice mode (as opposed to the current text to speech system) that can, for example, talk faster or slower at will, or change the emotio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.040750126857332925, "month": 0.49075012685733166} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 80.65251557333741, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719681243986 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 20 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681240708 | 1719600522965 | 0 |
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