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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5050274284127145 | 15c6amfm8f | {"NO": 275.2871096496529, "YES": 38.35908005771367} | 0.8798418846710495 | will-sanji-find-all-blue-before-the | 221 | Will Sanji find All Blue before the end of One Piece? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719092007827 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3798418846710495} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6778665004649334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 102 | strutheo | 1719128188573 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719128185525 | 1719093023458 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4z80i9hig9 | {"NO": 98.36731059859544, "YES": 101.65978859386234} | 0.4917699201544211 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-isx1ei11kd | 103.73023576382131 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2041? | 2246137140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719092169753 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2041.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gE3rRVZU4CPQFKGrHLJb", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "o0PbcHUo2ZMROqR0YCj1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-2yc43pefpa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dr21pnhu1", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-e72ig6jzqn"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ipliz5w6oh", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-8jiog6bcdi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "6nq3mhsjjf", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-ytue38kmod"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4z80i9hig9", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-isx1ei11kd"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xozm2i9egd", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-bqwj84nn7p"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, cryopreservation is defined as cooling below at least -10 degrees centigrade. In order to qualify as a \"successful revival from cryopreservation\", at least the brain of the individual must have been continuously cooled below -10C for a duration of at least 12 months and subsequently returned to normal function for a period of at least 3 months.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The cryopreservation of other organs of the body is not a requirement for this market. A return to normal function, however, must occur within a body broadly similar to the original (e.g. original cryopreserved/revived body, replacement biological body, replacement robotic body, ...).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.16566056919926464, "month": -0.008230079845578886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7150993914307766, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719732424603 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719732421475 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sxrirn5c78 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-ure9hd92zv | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Ted Kaczynski (Unabomber)? | 1721707140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719093129922 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719102371936 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719102370983 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ilpdtill9u | {"NO": 104.8347768930421, "YES": 95.38819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-israel-be-the-last-country-in | 5 | Will Israel be the last country in West Asia to fall below replacement
fertility rate | 3171067140000 | QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719094204173 | Joshua Bartlett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question West Asian countries are: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Jordan , Saudi Arabia, the UAE , Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Yemen", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaBartlett | 1719339943588 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLrHZK1BMnH4TIzVLpAvx9iyt35hQENFarO6Vwk0Zyj=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695348085515 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719100109528 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kbbn9ea4s7 | what-grade-110-will-i-give-bidens-p | 13088.482345744276 | What grade (1-10) will I give Biden's performance in his first 2024 presidential debate with Trump? | 1719553723770 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.109814207516681 | True | plus | 17skgqax5u | public | 1719094806668 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predict how I will grade Joe Biden's performance in the first 2024 presidential debate on June 27.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The grade will be on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being the worst and 10 being the best.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decimal grades (6.5, 7.5) will be used for more precise scoring.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will assign the grade based on my subjective impression tempered by my prediction of public/pundit opinion (i.e if I personally think the debate performance was bad but think other people might be moved positively by it, or it helped Biden's cause overall, I will grade it higher).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will avoid all social media and punditry before and during the debate, and watch the debate alone after. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": " edit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": i will also not look at this market on the day of the debate", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will probably have a very basic scoring rubric to guide me", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I voted for Biden in 2020 in my first election ever and consider myself a committed Democrat but I am despondent about Biden's chances and think he's doomed mostly because of his age. I also have very low expectations of Biden for the debate for the same reasons.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve as N/A if the debate does not occur or if Biden does not participate.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the market otherwise within 24 hours of the end of the debate", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "happy to answer any other clarification questions in the comments ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 795.122353777646, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719553723770 | 10000 | dlin007 | 1719588596785 | 0 | 37 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "17skgqax5u", "prob": 0.0315685655045674, 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0.5000000000000001 | 7fulb34s03 | {"NO": 68.35803010170056, "YES": 146.2885923588256} | 0.3184677649156661 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-p9kpb7besw | 125 | Will we get fusion drives before 2046? | 2403903540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719139697825 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2046, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. 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0.5000000000000001 | 8fz1ioqms5 | {"NO": 118.95234551068968, "YES": 84.06727885076765} | 0.5859155039066876 | will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels | 95 | Will we get synthetic blood vessels before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719140145109 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic blood vessels have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic blood vessel is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. This definition includes, but is not limited to, biological vessels grown on scaffolds from the patient's stem cells, artificial vessels that do not contain biological cells and synthetic vessels that have both biological and non-biological components.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Successful implantation is defined as the organ continuing to operate for at least 12 months subsequent to the operation. If multiple operations are required, then this clock starts at the final operation. A healthy threshold of operation is not defined for this question, only that the transplant is still considered functional and the clinicians do not consider it appropriate to remove it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These synthetic organs must have been completely implanted into the human, and cannot have significant components located outside of the patient's body. However, these devices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " allowed to have external ports such as electrical sockets and tubes for fluids (although this is probably not likely to be needed in the case of synthetic blood vessels). The devices must be able to operate autonomously for a period of at least 12 hours without being connected to these external ports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Various forms of maintenance over the 12 month duration are permitted, provided the synthetic vessels are not removed from the patient's body during these operations. Removing and replacing components of the organs is permitted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.13876577878219715, "month": 0.08591550390668756} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1308470125662975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768336735 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768333678 | 1719140795101 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2151171005743051} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5634447528960602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522367217 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522364114 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | pxay673x2u | {"NO": 1093.5589279422368, "YES": 914.4454628354708} | 0.5445998688870881 | will-anyone-be-charged-with-a-crimi | 659.6473741198374 | Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election? | 1751666340000 | rUI8lj6FurQkk7ikuDfuJ5i7UIu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571575564972168 | False | basic | public | 1719142102310 | Kurgan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any individual is charged with a criminal offence in connection with the placing of bets on the timing of the upcoming (July 4th) general election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0902312598831454, "month": 0.04459986888708811} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.986581139696874, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Kurgan | 1719909591445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte9FaCKbiAw0pPQkMoWQvI9kjj1u8LRBGPaRVwKyBrx=s96-c | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692446046009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719909588353 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1ft60lrubs | june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve | 0 | [June 2024] - Has weak AGI been achieved? | 1719806340000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719143300451 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On or before June 23, 2024, had weak artificial general intelligence (AGI) been achieved?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is one of a series of monthly polls tracking public opinion of AI progress. The definition of \"artificial general intelligence\" is not provided, and which software system(s) achieved it is up to the respondent to define. However, a \"weak\" AGI system is not", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "required to be able to manipulate the physical world.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719806340161 | SteveSokolowski | 1719190814530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | 0.25 | ["30nme775s2"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | n50s8hvffd | {"NO": 92.76328296100891, "YES": 107.8012730985738} | 0.4625108482949064 | will-the-painting-attributed-to-tar | 57 | Will the painting attributed to Tarsila do Amaral and put up for sale during SP-Arte 2024 be considered authentic? | 1728183540000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719145966147 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A painting, dated 1925 and attributed to renowned Brazilian modernist Tarsila do Amaral, was put up for sale by the OMA gallery for R$ 16 million during the 2024 edition of the SP-Arte art fair. However, some experts questioned its authenticity, prompting Tarsila's family to seek verification. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The family's representative, Paulo Montenegro, stated they were unaware of the painting and enlisted Douglas Quintale, an art expert, to authenticate the work.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quintale, a chemical technician and lawyer, has over six years of experience conducting scientific analyses of artworks for the São Paulo State Court of Justice. His authentication process includes examining documentation, provenance, artistic criteria, and laboratory tests of materials. The family's aim is to gain control over the verification of Tarsila's works, currently overseen by a panel that hasn't met in over a decade.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The painting, allegedly from Tarsila's \"Pau-Brasil\" phase while she was in Paris, was recently repatriated from Lebanon. Despite the controversy, the gallery owner Thomaz Pacheco remains confident in the preliminary analysis and is optimistic that the authentication process will be expedited.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See more: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrada/2024/04/herdeiros-de-tarsila-chamam-perito-para-validar-obra-apontada-como-falsa.shtml", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrada/2024/04/herdeiros-de-tarsila-chamam-perito-para-validar-obra-apontada-como-falsa.shtml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Douglas Quintale formally authenticates the painting as a genuine work of Tarsila do Amaral by October 5, 2024 (6 months after his evaluation was publicly announced). It will resolve to \"No\" if the painting is deemed inauthentic, and as N/A if the authentication process is not completed by the specified date.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03748915170509359} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8595158262533165, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719264007342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719264004276 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ivtfezx70 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-teortaxes-have-a-girlfriend-by | 0 | Will teortaxes have a girlfriend by EOY 2027? | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146063679 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719162336384 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719162335290 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y4pwgmdq1h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-cremieux-have-a-girlfriend-by | 0 | Will Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil) have a girlfriend by EOY 2027? | 1830315540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146076800 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719146107020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wb2bi5konm | {"NO": 180.01207758373312, "YES": 55.551828156355086} | 0.7641751269922958 | will-any-video-games-be-based-on-ex | 82 | Will any video games be based on exploring the interior of a computer chip/GPU/SSD as a world in and of itself by 2028? | 1861937940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146192633 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.26417512699229584} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9879224162668987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719157500682 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719157497629 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eox0k26nrr | for-which-n-will-this-market-get-n2 | 473.7811794428214 | For which N will this market get N^2 traders after N months? | 1726600080000 | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146615245 | M L | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will adjust the market closing date for each new trader. For instance, with 6 traders, the market will close after sqrt(6)*30.5 days = 74.7 days in total.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Primarily inspired by the following market, but using bins instead of interpolation: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g?r=TUwxMmQx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g?r=TUwxMmQx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g?r=TUwxMmQx ", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.720709962537403, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ML12d1 | 1720093634625 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | 8 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "gsoxnhvjs8", "prob": 0.005939456990881817, "text": "N < 1.5 (N^2 < 2.25)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7284306348900114, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 289.2797604410749, "textFts": "'1.5':2 '2':4 '2.25':5 'n':1,3", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0006244598617182028, "month": -0.16071700677922718}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0006244598617182028, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.16071700677922718}, {"id": "fargct4637", "prob": 0.005673813560699201, "text": "1.5 ≤ N < 2.5 (2.25 ≤ N^2 < 6.25)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.689110626274266, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 296.0137673770191, "textFts": "'1.5':1 '2':6 '2.25':4 '2.5':3 '6.25':7 'n':2,5", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.000584263675967079, "month": -0.1609833234370389}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.000584263675967079, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.1609833234370389}, {"id": "2hlmdnxzog", "prob": 0.03000000000000076, "text": "2.5 ≤ N < 3.5 (6.25 ≤ N^2 < 12.25)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 3.932418788198132, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 127.1482074850696, "textFts": "'12.25':7 '2':6 '2.5':1 '3.5':3 '6.25':4 'n':2,5", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.007504136335864501, "month": -0.1418102997522503}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.007504136335864501, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.1418102997522503}, {"id": "qr4mduj1is", "prob": 0.2698306416362775, "text": "3.5 ≤ N < 4.5 (12.25 ≤ N^2 < 20.25)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 13.593110061037335, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.78334080683846, "textFts": "'12.25':4 '2':6 '20.25':7 '3.5':1 '4.5':3 'n':2,5", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.10329787259105788, "month": 0.10513500523839478}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.10329787259105788, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": 0.10513500523839478}, {"id": "98aspuyj3z", "prob": 0.08849522858816522, "text": "4.5 ≤ N < 5.5 (20.25 ≤ N^2 < 30.25)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 6.967315172759148, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.76365466498544, "textFts": "'2':6 '20.25':4 '30.25':7 '4.5':1 '5.5':3 'n':2,5", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0033539291580231, "month": -0.07765483312452662}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0033539291580231, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": -0.07765483312452662}, {"id": "s7q2ct5s3i", "prob": 0.6000608592239757, "text": "Other", "index": 5, "poolNo": 27.389600471996985, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.255103812529065, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eox0k26nrr", "createdTime": 1719146615245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1153646616226307, "month": 0.4360304578546482}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1153646616226307, "totalLiquidity": 22.360679774997898, "probChangeMonth": 0.4360304578546482}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706799245162 | 0 | 0.25 | False | 1720093631270 | 1719147302037 | True | new | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7o1n5c2v4z | when-will-instituto-butantas-dengue | 22.645601265957485 | When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa? | 1767236340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719146917699 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instituto Butantã has been working on a dengue vaccine since the late 1990s. This vaccine is unique as it is a single-dose immunization that offers protection against all four serotypes of the dengue virus. The vaccine showed promising results in clinical trials, with an efficacy rate of 79.6% across various age groups and serotype-specific efficacy rates of 89.5% for DENV-1 and 69.6% for DENV-2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first two years of clinical trial data will be submitted to the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) in the second half of 2024. Following the submission, there will be further discussions with Anvisa regarding the internal processes and production capacity of Instituto Butantã. The approval process includes a thorough review of results, necessary adjustments, and improvement of production processes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the official announcement of Anvisa's approval date for Instituto Butantã's dengue vaccine. The approval date must be confirmed through a reliable source, such as an official press release from Anvisa or Instituto Butantã, or a reputable news outlet. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to the option that corresponds to the quarter in which the approval is officially announced. 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nzehb507op | which-countries-will-refuse-to-reco | 15 | Which countries will refuse to recognize the results of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential elections? | 1722808740000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719147176400 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The three groups of nations listed as answers made official statements following the 2018 presidential elections saying they would not recognize the results due to concerns with the process. This market resolves Yes to each option that releases an official statement declaring they would not recognize the results and/or are calling for new elections. Resolves No to each option that makes no such statement within one month of the election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accordingly, this market, which closes one week after the election, may not be able to resolve fully until 28 August 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4533153365700164, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartyDettmann | 1719234800970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7abarlse6u", "prob": 0.5674030988144905, "text": "EU", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.17533834572827, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.105468589394768, "textFts": "'eu':1", "contractId": "nzehb507op", "createdTime": 1719147176400, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f004bu504p", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Lima Group", "index": 1, "poolNo": 33.333333333333336, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.333333333333336, "textFts": "'group':2 'lima':1", "contractId": "nzehb507op", "createdTime": 1719147176400, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "lvlm0czi8p", "prob": 0.6250529854702811, "text": "NATO", "index": 2, "poolNo": 43.038012984368386, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.816970488732203, "textFts": "'nato':1", "contractId": "nzehb507op", "createdTime": 1719147176400, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06740309881449047, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.06740309881449047, "probChangeWeek": 0.06740309881449047, "totalLiquidity": 33.33333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0.06740309881449047}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719234797783 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | rns2bx68ph | {"NO": 1800.5623412558027, "YES": 555.3820476454881} | 0.7642635156152847 | will-apple-intelligence-be-delayed | 4563.323923659833 | Will Apple Intelligence be deployed in the EU within 12 months of deployment in the USA? | 1766638740000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629233981376489 | False | basic | public | 1719147346046 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple has said it will delay deployment of Apple Intelligence in the EU citing DMA concerns. Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Apple release Apple Intelligence in the EU within 12 months of when it does so in the USA? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if regular iPhone users who live in the EU can use Apple Intelligence on their iPhones on the same calendar day as the first day regular iPhone users who live in the USA, one year later, or on any day prior to that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Deployment to states with 51% of total population is sufficient.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if this is not the case.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also Resolves NO if USA users do not have access to Apple Intelligence by EOY 2025, to ensure this resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2642635156152847} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 111.9882281575597, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719325730220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 59 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719325727153 | 1719178070212 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 0odd65dzft | {"NO": 459.0871545203256, "YES": 2178.235635986899} | 0.174073176090831 | will-apple-face-regulatory-action-f | 1656.6945024987526 | Will Apple face regulatory action from the EU for failing to deploy Apple Intelligence? | 1766638740000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.666917932784882 | False | basic | public | 1719147614160 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple is refusing to do so in the EU at least for now, citing the DMA: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/apple-won-t-roll-out-ai-tech-in-eu-market-over-regulatory-concerns", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Apple is fined or action is otherwise attempted by officials to be taken against them Apple would plausibly care about, beyond simply asking them to provide information or answer questions, related to Apple's refusal, by the closing date and prior to them deploying Apple Intelligence in the EU.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Retaliation in another form counts if and only if EU is explicit they are doing that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Apple Intelligence is deployed in the EU, or if the deadline passes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.325926823909169} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.398637789056345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719314695353 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 23 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719314692235 | 1719274903346 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t1ydemq1mt | {"NO": 163.09620301970412, "YES": 61.31350586249927} | 0.7267787291026531 | will-argentina-grant-asylum-or-shel | 115 | Will Argentina grant asylum or shelter to any fugitives from the 1/8/2023 attempted coup in Brazil by the end of 2024? | 1735700340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719147740032 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 8, 2023, an attempted coup took place in Brazil, leading to numerous investigations and arrests. Some of the individuals involved have since fled the country. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Argentine government ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "has stated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.otempo.com.br/politica/judiciario/2024/6/11/8-de-janeiro--argentina-avaliara-individualmente-pedidos-de-refu", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that it will assess asylum requests from these Brazilian fugitives on an individual basis. The assessment will be conducted by Conare, the commission responsible for handling asylum applications in Argentina. This process involves evaluating the legality and feasibility of each request, which could delay Brazil's efforts to extradite the fugitives.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Argentine spokesperson Manuel Adorni ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "confirmed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/argentina-nega-pacto-de-impunidade-com-bolsonaro-para-dar-asilo-a-foragidos-do-8-1/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that no premature decisions would be made, emphasizing the need to follow legal procedures. Despite Brazil's request to locate and extradite 143 fugitives believed to be in Argentina, the Argentine Ministry of Security reported no current knowledge or alerts regarding these individuals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Brazilian authorities have been actively pursuing the fugitives, with a recent operation recapturing 50 individuals while identifying others possibly residing in Argentina. The final decision on granting asylum lies with the Argentine President, Javier Milei, who is an ally of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by December 31, 2024, there is official confirmation that Argentina has granted asylum or shelter to any of the fugitives involved in the January 8th, 2023 attempted coup in Brazil. Official confirmation includes statements from the Argentine government and credible news sources. If no such confirmation is available by the end of 2024, the market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.22677872910265306} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.074459206960326, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719426946808 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719426943715 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48975995509227177 | z08qm5fsvu | {"NO": 106.0505618573577, "YES": 385.1462536836848} | 0.20904805324118084 | will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above | 430 | Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? | 1738558740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719152076271 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Divide if splits again", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.072621699934216, "month": -0.2909519467588192} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.72498513570761, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1720010026322 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720010023119 | 1719152082457 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | vhksfzkt5i | {"NO": 565.3480944182551, "YES": 1768.8217398680783} | 0.2422052097983303 | will-i-be-the-victim-of-an-ai-black | 1250 | Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031? | 1956524340000 | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62155311597056 | False | basic | public | 1719154191201 | AhmedButCooler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves YES if I am the victim of a blackmail or ransom threat that heavily relies on AI which would be significantly more difficult (or impossible) for a human to execute without AI assistance. The market resolves NO if this does not happen by December 31, 2031, 11:59:59 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The attacking message cannot be marked as spam/scam by whatever medium I am receiving the message in. There also needs to be a reasonable chance (>0.1% of readers/listeners) that someone would fall for the scam or pay the attacker.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that would result in a YES resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " I receive a call claiming a loved one is held hostage, using an AI-generated voice of that loved one, demanding ransom.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " An AI-generated image of me engaging in illegal activity is used to blackmail me.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " An AI is utilized to gather personal information about me online, which an attacker then uses for blackmail.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples that would not result in a YES resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " A loved one receives a call claiming I am held hostage. (I am not the victim in this case.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " I receive a generic scam email utilizing an AI that is used to search for email addresses online.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " A language model generates a generic scam email addressed to me, even if it includes some easily accessible information about me.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " An AI builds a close relationship with me and convinces me to send money to someone (this scenario is not a blackmail/ransom threat).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve ambiguous cases by poll (potentially proportional to the poll), but I will wait until the end of 2031 in case a clearer threat occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Helpful information about me (as of June 2024):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " I live in Qatar. I will be a senior in high school next school year. My family and I do not post our faces or voices on social media, but you can occasionally find photos of me through Google searches due to other organizations (e.g. school). I consider myself somewhat paranoid about privacy. By 2031, I will likely have been out of college for two years.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will answer questions about myself at my discretion and will make an effort to clarify questions regarding the market resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will place an initial bet of NO in the market and will not buy or sell any shares in this market afterward.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.25779479020166973} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.197575323264676, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AhmedButCooler | 1719169080255 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714851175704 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719169077178 | 1719163396298 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | am5836hu1w | {"NO": 980.1960588196067, "YES": 1020.2040612204089} | 0 | will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e3-title | 2078.3012858168727 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E3 ("The Burning Mill") be rated >8.5 on IMDB, 2 days after release? | 1719800100000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570395453737996 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719156520820 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E3 IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27172708/?ref_=tt_ep_nx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (July 2nd), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: ~8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.34370049166486555, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.78428349318004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719950503452 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719950568020 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719800067815 | 1719950566085 | 0.49 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000004 | d7si9wa582 | {"NO": 9951.91917755885, "YES": 10048.31311587576} | 0.4975901795313513 | will-dr-jonathan-sackner-bernstein | 50 | WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036 | 2098508340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7263872821717214 | False | plus | public | 1719162353514 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He claims an interesting approach to Parkinson's disease, some details here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uap1kzI5Lp8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uap1kzI5Lp8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His background is in Cardiology. This is about whether he will win one of these awards by June 30, 2036. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Sackner-Bernstein", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Sackner-Bernstein", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lasker Awards (Lasker-DeBakey Clinical Medical Research Award and Lasker Basic Medical Research Award)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gairdner Foundation International Award", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wolf Prize in Medicine", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shaw Prize in Life Science and Medicine", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Louisa Gross Horwitz Prize", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Japan Prize in Medical Science", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Canada Gairdner International Award", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.0024098204686490154} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6868841242432653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Ernie | 1719201986032 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719201982977 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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r5mrk7pb1a | first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w | 134510.35886652838 | First Debate Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say? | 1719542280000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.246722942637517 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1719165604725 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sequence of words at the first debate. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It needs to be the exact same words (in order): \"shut the hell up\" does not count for \"shut up\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes verb tenses and pluralization: \"We defended democracy\" does not count for \"defend democracy\", and \"convicted felons\" does not count for \"convicted felon\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, any punctuation is fine: \"Come on! Man, I...\" counts for \"come on, man\", and \"Folks. Folks, I...\" counts for \"folks, folks\". What matters is that the words are said in sequence. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similarly, any form of contraction counts: \"c'mon, man\" would count for \"come on, man\", and \"here is the deal\" would count for \"here's the deal\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Broadly, different forms of writing the same word will count: \"January sixth\" counts for \"January 6th\". ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To help find these, I plan to check the transcript from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CPD website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". But the transcript won't necessarily be the ultimate source (e.g. it might slightly diverge in spelling, punctuation, usage of contractions, etc)—as long as it sounds like he said the phrase in the debate audio (and not some other word), I will err on the side of YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market refers to the first debate held between Biden & Trump in 2024, as long as it is before July 31st (currently: June 27th, on CNN).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debate is cancelled or postponed beyond then, I will ask the mods to N/A this market, as I don't want to lock up mana for the next 5 months.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close before the first debate begins (to recoup liquidity). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can add your own submissions, but note that it costs 1000M (this is a Plus market), and I reserve the right to N/A any that don't follow the current format (or for any reason).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submissions don't need to explicitly be \"Biden-isms\"—e.g. you can add \"NATO\" or \"Artificial intelligence\" if you want to bet that he'll mention them. It just needs to be a sequence of words.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more general betting on \"what will happen in the debate\", check out ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics"}}, {"text": " 's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "official prop bet market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kunxgmp71i", "label": 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0.5000000000000003 | igt6gk2bgo | {"NO": 127.85616034976783, "YES": 7821.289152312735} | 0 | how-will-this-disputed-market-on-po | 8806.035876587443 | How will this disputed market on Polymarket resolve? [Was Barron involved in $DJT?] | 1719425399789 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.863565512373215 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719169104808 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the original market and details can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "it currently sits at 28% and has gone to UMA for resolution dispute", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "per NYMag", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/barron-trump-djt-crypto-martin-shkreli.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fjdb6YMepWB.png?alt=media&token=8f625922-bcc5-4781-8d7a-157420b1faae", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FytiQGCoR19.png?alt=media&token=cdc9d096-82fa-4423-a3f3-55a32e53840d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "per Arkham on twitter:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1803471430727901455", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FpXnBUsxnRf.png?alt=media&token=42eb636d-e914-46c8-9cdc-40e19aaa65e3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "to date, Barron nor the Trump family have made a statement. the market is for whether Barron was involved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "in the creation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of $DJT, which means he must have participated back in April when the coin was established.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 82.73539400316207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719425399789 | 1000 | shankypanky | 1719534711020 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698976802308 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425392991 | 1719534709776 | 0.02 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2974564868578255 | ct30h17f23 | {"NO": 7578.602059051519, "YES": 18386.382655243502} | 0.14858772477897195 | will-messaging-apps-with-endtoend-e | 10873.952573089808 | Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0752858125572455 | False | plus | public | 1719169559356 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if four of the seven nations in G7 (France, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada) have banned messaging apps that use end-to-end encryption, or have otherwise made these apps non-functional or non-private when used in those nations. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if these apps are still legal and functional in at least four of the seven nations that comprise G7. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.008849088484874146, "month": -0.351412275221028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 151.305302242681, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ZacParker | 1719699752059 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648110702205 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699748776 | 1719175484218 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ayfa13lphu | how-many-of-the-original-options-in | 92 | How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES? | 1798772340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719170140414 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meta-market on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/br-congress-20242026-megamarket-whi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/br-congress-20242026-megamarket-whi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this one (but I will on the original one).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The original market is open to adding new options, but I will not consider them when resolving this one. I will also post a comment here if that happens so that new bettors know which options will not be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6217327176734928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719173294382 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "i5nc8da672", "prob": 0.14493858072423366, "text": "0-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.404032546100554, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.57937328074706, "textFts": "'-3':2 '0':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0o68ovxrq8", "prob": 0.17294742553974274, "text": "4-7", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9.334366976987797, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.63791360398443, "textFts": "'-7':2 '4':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "n25zi9m7dt", "prob": 0.248245716191033, "text": "8-11", "index": 2, "poolNo": 11.729980896211988, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.52151281006971, "textFts": "'-11':2 '8':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "m6v7km1aj2", "prob": 0.17294742553974274, "text": "12-15", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.334366976987797, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.63791360398443, "textFts": "'-15':2 '12':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3rrywbkppo", "prob": 0.14505674082924264, "text": "16-19", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.408038480256304, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.55575163518582, "textFts": "'-19':2 '16':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5oas60uzkq", "prob": 0.07049585727095294, "text": "20-23", "index": 5, "poolNo": 5.621477961220222, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.120483890721, "textFts": "'-23':2 '20':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "50u359hbzw", "prob": 0.045368253905052405, "text": "24-27", "index": 6, "poolNo": 4.449922785611079, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.63458350647517, "textFts": "'-27':2 '24':1", "contractId": "ayfa13lphu", "createdTime": 1719170140414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719173291251 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
su7kh3x7wr | how-many-women-mayors-will-brazil-e | 46.08321657483887 | How many women mayors will Brazil elect in capital cities in the 2024 local elections? | 1730084340000 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719173148061 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved according to data from the Brazilian Electoral Court, or according to reputable media sources. Only state capitals will be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.604044770014184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1719427069050 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 3 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y8r5p22jru", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": ">6 (more than the historical record)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'6':1 'histor':5 'record':6", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "euuzotive3", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": "6 (equal to the 2000 Election record)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'2000':5 '6':1 'elect':6 'equal':2 'record':7", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "clfb4y6d0h", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": "5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "kmpqz3j4ci", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": "4", "index": 3, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ptuyp7h756", "prob": 0.16815410978847992, "text": "3 (the same as in '85, '88, '92 and '96)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.496758796096703, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.032834603581286, "textFts": "'3':1 '85':6 '88':7 '92':8 '96':10", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "rpqrszo9i2", "prob": 0.18568898203848008, "text": "2 (the same as in '04 and '08)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.024411629513928, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.575195791694355, "textFts": "'04':6 '08':8 '2':1", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "o2zvome8sp", "prob": 0.22844010612673768, "text": "1 (the same as in '12, '16 and '20)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 10.2830592604173, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.731187295361735, "textFts": "'1':1 '12':6 '16':7 '20':9", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5y92mqbgo5", "prob": 0.08354336040926046, "text": "0", "index": 7, "poolNo": 5.705858448269795, "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.592309357263225, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "su7kh3x7wr", "createdTime": 1719173148061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 18.89822365046136, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667140779397 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719427065419 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ll19rhs4hy | what-websocial-mediainternet-usage | 37477.0428625126 | What web/social media/internet usage habits will a majority of Manifold users describe as a "red flag"? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1740805140000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.570616540739003 | False | plus | public | 1719173200937 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Red flag = a warning of danger, usually used in the context of behavior that is considered problematic or that signifies an increased likelihood that someone engages in other behaviors that are problematic.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will poll Manifold users in the next few months on any response added here. Options will be \"Yes\", \"No\", and \"Unsure\". An option will resolve \"YES\" only if \"Yes\" has a majority of all votes, beating out \"No\" and \"Unsure\" combined. If \"No\" and \"Unsure\" combine to a number greater than \"Yes\" I will resolve the option as \"No\". I will abide by the results of each poll.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please add responses.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 719.1386624310885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3131.095206396568 | 40000 | ZacParker | 1720211607313 | 0 | 65 | 10 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "1o3uy53lc3", "prob": 0.1610258718025801, "text": "Using X, formerly Twitter for more than 2 hours a week", "index": 0, "poolNo": 325.6841963755325, "userId": "fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1696.873997098034, "textFts": "'2':8 'former':3 'hour':9 'twitter':4 'use':1 'week':11 'x':2", "contractId": "ll19rhs4hy", "createdTime": 1719173200937, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3389741281974199}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.3389741281974199}, {"id": "sfaquqa5e7", "prob": 0.14749451932724073, 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0qjiouurzv | conditional-on-donald-trump-selecti-jau51p6rr2 | 3842.3068132307026 | Conditional on Donald Trump selecting Marco Rubio as VP nominee, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1735718340000 | n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719182214609 | Mike Linksvayer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump does not select Marco Rubio as the VP nominee, this market will resolve as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Format copied for questions below about other potential VP nominees.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SamStemper/conditional-on-donald-trump-selecti-d65b4d297481", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SamStemper/conditional-on-donald-trump-selecti", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SamStemper/conditional-on-donald-trump-selecti-67411372421c", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/who-among-these-favorites-do-you-th", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.388497373579305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeLinksvayer | 1720144377757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMEt_vp87oGWCPN6fczOoU_PSbnY8JZQWWdkXjXQ=s96-c | 20 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vx71hymu0f", "prob": 0.5299137470453076, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 306.4948591968205, "userId": "n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 271.89145537941795, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "0qjiouurzv", "createdTime": 1719182214609, "probChanges": {"day": 0.14351248212099715, "week": 0.13945691919910658, "month": 0.33999999999999986}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.14351248212099715, "probChangeWeek": 0.13945691919910658, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.33999999999999986}, {"id": "sa0b375o3y", "prob": 0.29636874170907623, "text": "Joe Biden", "index": 1, "poolNo": 187.34970470257414, "userId": "n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 444.8009857588437, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "0qjiouurzv", "createdTime": 1719182214609, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1296740450779495, "week": -0.13378312651768814, "month": 0.09637618556704963}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1296740450779495, "probChangeWeek": -0.13378312651768814, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.09637618556704963}, {"id": "eu6l2zrn5p", "prob": 0.024750648028005272, "text": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 45.98803242389939, "userId": "n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1812.0656384078338, "textFts": "'f':2 'jr':4 'kennedi':3 'robert':1", "contractId": "0qjiouurzv", "createdTime": 1719182214609, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0052568762553637655, "week": 0.003207581800765774, "month": -0.22329785989169013}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0052568762553637655, "probChangeWeek": 0.003207581800765774, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.22329785989169013}, {"id": "oxerdt76ax", "prob": 0.14896686321761082, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 120.77609347400937, "userId": "n7K8X2GXFjd6E6VqrIYdLSsp8XI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 689.9820232326547, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0qjiouurzv", "createdTime": 1719182214609, "probChanges": {"day": -0.008581560787683781, "week": -0.008881374482184082, "month": -0.21307832567535934}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.008581560787683781, "probChangeWeek": -0.008881374482184082, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.21307832567535934}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678567919781 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720144374661 | 1719183323218 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rzm9cdpete | when-will-san-francisco-have-bad-ai | 100 | When will San Francisco have bad air quality in 2024? | 1735718340000 | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719183058465 | Kronopath | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Summary", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "San Francisco tends to occasionally get really bad air quality due to nearby wildfires. 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0.49999999999999994 | nj5mis83os | {"NO": 67.27517205399435, "YES": 148.64324675341012} | 0.31157680954491723 | will-repligatejanus-win-a-turing-aw | 50 | Will repligate/janus win a turing award | 2366859540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719183723919 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18842319045508277} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3567532465898609, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719208306471 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719208303425 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | agw07d7iyf | {"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677} | 0.3931377340057284 | will-greg-yang-win-a-turing-award | 25 | Will Greg Yang win a turing award | 2461467540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719183749891 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686226599427162} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719201422312 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719201419257 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jdth4itlyq | {"NO": 536.541259498353, "YES": 18.637895637978758} | 1 | will-inside-out-2-gross-over-a-bill | 525.0358000471425 | Will Inside Out 2 gross over a billion dollars? | 1719775955520 | x9RZMYRK9AUjim6wjSPdbplgipO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719192259486 | SpiderMark | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going by worldwide gross by the end of September 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04979640045106404, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.144491041815952, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719775955520 | 100 | MarkBcb80 | 1719775955520 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLU_kpsIj10OgsXjbnpbkscfx3IoksnrdzPksfWhA5B=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700547117341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681134699 | 0.97 | x9RZMYRK9AUjim6wjSPdbplgipO2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | g2r4r6ojzd | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction? | 1721235600000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719193715516 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Xl25hoLys.png?alt=media&token=b5862fd9-790f-4620-8015-9613219ee418", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a prediction market. Market will close at 10 am on 17 July when doors open.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if IAM 751 reports that the union members affirm an initial strike sanction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719194246119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | a70uogj4np | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i-mwdt0ps1bq | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction? | 1726210740000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719193899548 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Xl25hoLys.png?alt=media&token=b5862fd9-790f-4620-8015-9613219ee418", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a prediction market. Market will close at 10 am on 17 July when doors open.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if IAM 751 reports that the union members affirm an initial strike sanction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LukasDay | 1719193899580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652812495711 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999917 | nnf5itpy1a | {"NO": 1756.4834208815057, "YES": 569.319350306277} | 0 | will-biden-say-the-word-folks-more | 3648.7243463327513 | Will Biden say the word "Folks" more than 4 times in the CNN presidential debate on June 27, 2024? | 1719544748975 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620286432495398 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719194023236 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden says \"Folks\" exactly 4 times, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the 2020 debates, Biden said \"Folks\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/september-29-2020-debate-transcript/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/october-22-2020-debate-transcript/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " times.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.18864240403549, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719628729438 | 1000 | BishopG | 1719544748975 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 48 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719541004719 | 0.76 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mxnhvlv2ks | will-iam-751-members-boeing-union-i-gi2mkoks7h | 0 | Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) pass or fail an initial strike sanction and by what margin? | 1721235600000 | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719194195307 | Lukas Day | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLb5I-fAUSZ.png?alt=media&token=cc5422fc-0cdc-4a78-b5ae-d2c25ec6207e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a forecasting market. Market closes when doors open (17 July @ 10 am)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to one answer based on", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the initial strike sanction passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The margin by which it passes or fails", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve based on reported results from IAM 751", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. 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vas834atut | who-will-be-the-top-10-picks-in-the | 39393.137926149386 | Who will be the top 10 picks in the 2024 NBA Draft? | 1719450626931 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719195869669 | Paper Boy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number one pick will resolve to 100%, the second pick will resolve to 90%, and so on down to 10% for the 10th pick. 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t1aqjxiynz | shortfuse-renoir-vs-rego-which-pain | 39452.2498787206 | [short-fuse] RENOIR vs REGO: which painting will sell for more at the Sotheby's auction? 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This market resolves to the painting which sells for a higher value at auction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example from a past auction: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This painting by Vigée Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/a-scholar-collects/self-portrait-in-traveling-costume?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edge cases:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If one fails to sell for any reason, it resolves to the other.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there's a tie (or they both fail to sell), both resolve at 50%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pierre-Auguste Renoir - Bouquet de lilas", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FgW-2rWO4ny.png?alt=media&token=60088898-95f1-4f44-b510-30db58e15cfe", "title": null}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Renoir's unrivalled gift of freshness, expressed in immaculate colour and deft technique, is nowhere better shown than in his paintings of flowers, which have themselves the qualities of purity and delicacy with which he customarily endows all textures and forms.”", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paula Rego - Meadow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzGrFahfUT9.png?alt=media&token=5a40e673-2039-4b21-984a-c62458e342e9", "title": null}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meadow is an unequivocal masterpiece, one of Paula Rego’s most virtuosic, dramatic, and pioneering works from the 1990s. 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0.5000000000000031 | mjfklvgla2 | {"NO": 9920.566142714622, "YES": 100.80069883253304} | 0.9899414221207204 | metaculus-will-nigel-farage-be-elec | 9758.406946771123 | [Metaculus] Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | 1720263600000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849883692120336 | False | public | 1719202756764 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25520/nigel-farage-elected-mp-in-2024-uk-ge/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25520/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " in the event that in the 2024 UK general election held on July 4, 2024, Nigel Farage is elected as the member of parliament (MP) for any UK constituency. The question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if this does not occur, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4 2024, in which case the question will be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "annulled", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution should cite credible media reports from the BBC, the Times, the Financial Times, the Guardian, or other major UK news sources; or the official announcement of the returning officer for any constituency in which Nigel Farage is a candidate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Farage need not be sworn in as an MP for the question to resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " -- this question resolves on the basis of his election or non-election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25520/nigel-farage-elected-mp-in-2024-uk-ge/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.003527911715116794, "week": 0.17072999317808346, "month": 0.48994142212072045} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.07618148879823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1401 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1720211733524 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 15 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720211730449 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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r8qn9j6ugm | which-of-these-four-celebrities-wil | 5 | Will Dick Van Dyke, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough or Gene Shalit live the longest? | 1861937940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719205209177 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person who lives the longest (dies after the other three) will resolve YES, the rest will resolve NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Shalit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Shalit", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Van_Dyke", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Van_Dyke", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mel_Brooks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mel_Brooks", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Attenborough", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Attenborough", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1717827256275219, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719213696726 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "waj9n2ej8t", "prob": 0.22443986637252847, "text": "Dick Van Dyke", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.52929139785118, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.66203209044319, "textFts": "'dick':1 'dyke':3 'van':2", "contractId": "r8qn9j6ugm", "createdTime": 1719205209177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "92ajtw2nha", "prob": 0.3266804008824145, "text": "Mel Brooks", "index": 1, "poolNo": 20.10760238822693, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.44369464065259, "textFts": "'brook':2 'mel':1", "contractId": "r8qn9j6ugm", "createdTime": 1719205209177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7kkxcomemf", "prob": 0.22443986637252847, "text": "David Attenborough", "index": 2, "poolNo": 15.52929139785118, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.66203209044319, "textFts": "'attenborough':2 'david':1", "contractId": "r8qn9j6ugm", "createdTime": 1719205209177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b7ifgxekmk", "prob": 0.22443986637252847, "text": "Gene Shalit", "index": 3, "poolNo": 15.52929139785118, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.66203209044319, "textFts": "'gene':1 'shalit':2", "contractId": "r8qn9j6ugm", "createdTime": 1719205209177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719213693644 | 1719205801086 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | d7het0c1xg | {"NO": 1204.612674967754, "YES": 830.1423526253114} | 0.5920185273569294 | will-homosexuality-be-legal-in-duba | 3198.11887550299 | Will homosexuality be legal in Dubai in 2035 (partially or fully)? | 2051283540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.491693128655104 | False | basic | public | 1719206152281 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Homosexuality is illegal in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and under the federal criminal provisions, consensual same-sex sexual activity is punishable by imprisonment; extra-marital sexual activity between persons of different sexes is also illegal.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 1st, 2035, will homosexuality (between men or women) be legal ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "de jure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in all or part of the Emirate of Dubai?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves yes even if homosexuality is only legal in Dubai but illegal in the rest of the UAE. The question similarly resolves yes if homosexuality is legal in some parts of the Emirate of Dubai only, for instance in some ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "sectors, communities", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communities_in_Dubai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "free zones", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_free-trade_zones_in_Dubai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The question also resolves YES if homosexuality is legal only for a subgroup of the resident population such as non Muslims or foreigners. The question resolves no if homosexuality is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "de facto", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " legal with no enforcement despite an official ban. The legalization can be by legislation, executive order, case law, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1901588424022972, "month": 0.09201852735692939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.3882195842543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719884061575 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 46 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719884058424 | 1719292873644 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9fa1e2bx9x | {"NO": 742.6465916436737, "YES": 1346.535500535639} | 0.3554724092379082 | will-a-public-gay-pride-legally-tak | 1109 | Will a public gay pride legally take place in the UAE by 2040? | 2209049940000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58413066198303 | False | basic | public | 1719206665840 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of 2024, homosexuality is de jure illegal in the UAE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By January 1st, 2040, will at least one public gay pride event legally take place somewhere in the UAE?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An event declared illegal by the government will not count. If the government is aware of the event and let it happen, the question will resolve as yes, even if at the time homosexuality might be de jure illegal in the jurisdiction. Events happening in diplomatic representations will not count. The event has to be open to the public, so, for instance, a private celebration by residents at their home will not count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.14452759076209182} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.05575700471892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719292888896 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719274548611 | 1719292887711 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t11ghrtzkh | {"NO": 1067.7083284842872, "YES": 936.5853701072036} | 0.5327105150480765 | will-there-be-an-active-synagogue-i | 70 | Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035? | 2051283540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570999786888889 | False | basic | public | 1719207217885 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jewish population is growing in Dubai, however, as of 2024, there is no synagogue and local Jews gather in private homes or hotels", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/government/2022/01/31/jewish-community-in-uae-growing-rapidly-says-senior-rabbi/?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwj9-zBhDyARIsAERjds2IuzG2IWa9O7Vjdo37eomo4FWbWDOMwm91RH-Sf2VaWBrzHUeuunQaAgd2EALw_wcB", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". One synagogue opened in Abu Dhabi in 2023 (as part of the Abrahamic Family House complex) but, as of 2024, there is no similar project in Dubai.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 1st, 2035, will there be at least one active synagogue in the Emirate of Dubai? If a synagogue opens before but is then closed or becomes inactive as a place of worship for Jews, the question will resolve no. Informal synagogues won't count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.03271051504807654} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.291671515712798, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719293003206 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719293000027 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16613j0awm | when-will-i-get-negative-covid-test | 14 | When will I get negative covid test result? | 1719817140000 | hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719208000099 | Warty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I got covid probably at vibecamp (june 13-16), first noticed symptoms June 18, last tested today (June 23), positive", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I want it to be negative and hang out with people when will it happen :c", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(if it seems to be error it doesn't count, I will probably repeat and both have to be negative. current symptoms is moderate cough nose fluid, peak was probably yesterday full nonverbal mode)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5758959338130941, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | warty | 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iln9nbkmwc | hololive-english-justice-which-tale | 10 | [Hololive English -Justice-] Which talent will leave Hololive last? | 4133977140000 | cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719211764921 | Oskar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a talent is terminated or graduates they will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when there is only one talent left, which will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22959651259434535, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | nollfem | 1719558268327 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pa67ud228u", "prob": 0.3363720621765182, "text": "Elizabeth Rose Bloodflame", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.55213790417772, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.547282098761045, "textFts": "'bloodflam':3 'elizabeth':1 'rose':2", "contractId": "iln9nbkmwc", "createdTime": 1719211764921, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.07668040088241451, "month": 0.07668040088241451}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.07668040088241451, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.07668040088241451}, {"id": "l59xaz1gvj", "prob": 0.2010368849729025, "text": "Gigi Murin", "index": 1, "poolNo": 14.48051090717836, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.548614042355986, "textFts": "'gigi':1 'murin':2", "contractId": "iln9nbkmwc", "createdTime": 1719211764921, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.025560133627471532, "month": -0.025560133627471532}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.025560133627471532, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.025560133627471532}, {"id": "vpex6wk8f8", "prob": 0.23129552642528964, "text": "Cecilia Immergreen", "index": 2, "poolNo": 15.834825770435975, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.62661840518562, "textFts": "'cecilia':1 'immergreen':2", "contractId": "iln9nbkmwc", "createdTime": 1719211764921, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.025560133627471532, "month": -0.025560133627471532}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.025560133627471532, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.025560133627471532}, {"id": "ckstwoxc38", "prob": 0.23129552642528964, "text": "Raora Panthera", "index": 3, "poolNo": 15.834825770435975, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.62661840518562, "textFts": "'panthera':2 'raora':1", "contractId": "iln9nbkmwc", "createdTime": 1719211764921, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.025560133627471532, "month": -0.025560133627471532}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.025560133627471532, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.025560133627471532}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675414964663 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719558265260 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xx0jxyycyv | what-is-the-probability-of-dying-in | 18.612981659629853 | What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN? | 1735711140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719212335912 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj", "label": "/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Gx6XK2R6OMmAHUuT9qTr", "label": "/dreev/whats-the-probability-of-death-in-s-770398272e8d"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Snake Eyes paradox involves a game where the GM selects people from an infinite pool, starting with 1 person on Round 1. On each round, he rolls 2 fair six-sided dice. If they land snake eyes (which has a 1/36 chance of happening, assuming the dice are fair), the game ends and the people chosen for that round die. Otherwise, the game goes to another round in which twice as many people are chosen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The original paradox asks what your credence should be that you will die, given that you have just been chosen for the game. The answer to this question is definitely 1/36 - it's unambiguous in both classical probability theory and a non-standard variation of probability theory. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Variant N asks what your credence that you will die should be, given that you know the game eventually ends (it's otherwise possible for it to go on forever if snake eyes is never rolled). In classical probability theory, this is still 1/36, since the probability of never rolling snake eyes was zero anyway. However, classical probability theory doesn't allow for a uniform distribution over the natural numbers, which means you must assume that you are more likely to have been chosen for the game than all but finitely many other people, no matter what your priors are. It is possible to instead reason in a non-standard theory of probability, in which the GM has an equal probability of picking any of the remaining people in the infinite pool every time he needs to choose a new player. In this variant, it turns out that, even though the prior probability of an infinite game is 0, the probability of an infinite game conditional on you being chosen is 17/18, and thus, the probability that you die, given that the game is finite, is 1/2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NNN stands for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "on-standard, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "th round, Variant ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thus, Variant NNN asks what the probability that you die should be in the non-standard probability theory mentioned above, given that you are chosen on the Nth round of the game, and that you know the game will eventually end.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Argument for 1/36", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The dice are fair, so they have a 1/36 chance of landing snake eyes on Round N and every round thereafter, and this probability is independent of whoever was chosen for Round N. Furthermore, your being chosen on Round N is not made more or less likely by the dice landing in any particular way on Round N or later rounds. Therefore, your probability for any event E that only depends on the roll of the dice after you are chosen on Round N, conditional on you being chosen for Round N, should be the same as your probability that E occurs conditional on Round N occurring at all (since you being chosen, rather than anyone else, was independent of this). Thus, once you learn that you were chosen on Round N, you should update your probability that the game goes to infinitely many rounds back to 0, since there is still a 0% chance that the game goes on forever, given that it goes to at least Round N. You should also believe that you have a 1/36 chance of dying in this case, just like regular snake eyes, since your chance of dying is independent of the Round you are chosen on.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given this, learning that the game eventually ends gives you no additional information to update your credence. Specifically, before this, you had P(D|C_N) = 1/36, where D means \"You die,\" and C_N means, \"You're chosen for the Nth round\" and P(F|C_N) = 1, where F means a finite game. So learning F causes no update to your credence:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "P(D|C_N,F) = P(D|C_N)P(F|D,C_N) / P(F|C_N) = P(D|C_N) = 1/36.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Argument for ≥1/2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to non-standard variant N (but without the condition that you know which round N you were chosen on), P(D|C,F) = 1/2, where C means that you're chosen to play the game on any round. Therefore, if P(D|C_N,F) is independent of the round number N, it must be exactly 1/2, since any other value A would mean that, in the situation where you know that you were chosen and the game was finite, learning what your round number N was would force you to update your credence from 1/2 to A no matter what N is. This is absurd: If you already know that you should update your belief to A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "no matter what N is", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", then you should just update it now. Therefore A could only be 1/2, so the argument for 1/36 must be flawed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In reality, P(D|C_N,F) doesn't have to be exactly 1/2 for all N. It just needs to have expected value of 1/2, in line with the law of total expectation. Because of the unusual characteristics of the distribution, this just requires the limit of P(D|C_N,F) as N approaches infinity to be 1/2. For individual N values, the number may be slightly higher, since it would be related to the expected proportion of people who die. (More details on the non-standard distribution and Variant N can be found in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "my Substack post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/the-snake-eyes-paradox", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Argument for undefined", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Non-standard probability theory is non-standard for a reason. For some questions, it cannot produce a coherent answer. The two previous arguments are both valid and show that no probability can be consistently defined for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this once I am confident that there is a correct answer, and I know what it is, to whatever the correct probability is. The close date will be extended until this happens. If I become convinced that the problem itself is meaningless or self-contradictory, or that the correct answer is that there is no well-defined probability, I will resolve to \"Undefined\". If I become convinced that the best answer involves infinitesimals, I will resolve to the finite part of the answer (e.g., \"1/36+infinitesimal\" still counts as 1/36 for this market). If the problem as stated is ambiguous such that there are two equally plausible interpretations, I will resolve 50-50 to both interpretations if they have different answers. I will only do this if both interpretations are equally plausible - if one is more plausible than the other or definitely more in line with what I was asking, I will resolve purely based on the more plausible interpretation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whatever answer I resolve it to must be true for all values of N. So, for example, if I thought the answer was 1/36 for N=1 but 1/2 for N=2, I would not resolve it to either 1/36 or ≥1/2 - both options would resolve to NO. If none of the options are correct for all values of N, I will resolve to Other.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.56170624708915, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PlasmaBallin | 1719458139714 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "k7ef7sfcxp", "prob": 0.1971829776787058, "text": "1/36", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.306579124214798, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.248259496420324, "textFts": "'1/36':1", "contractId": "xx0jxyycyv", "createdTime": 1719212335912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.052817022321294205, "month": -0.052817022321294205}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.052817022321294205, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.052817022321294205}, {"id": "ivn2n7rc5j", "prob": 0.4401450016535368, "text": "≥1/2", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25.59584574351861, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.55736660095908, "textFts": "'1/2':1", "contractId": "xx0jxyycyv", "createdTime": 1719212335912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.19014500165353682, "month": 0.19014500165353682}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.19014500165353682, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.19014500165353682}, {"id": "74cmrf6dhd", "prob": 0.18133601033387867, "text": "Undefined", "index": 2, "poolNo": 13.586217452175923, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.33666977337167, "textFts": "'undefin':1", "contractId": "xx0jxyycyv", "createdTime": 1719212335912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.06866398966612133, "month": -0.06866398966612133}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.06866398966612133, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.06866398966612133}, {"id": "6ih89jaf7b", "prob": 0.18133601033387867, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 13.586217452175923, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 61.33666977337167, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xx0jxyycyv", "createdTime": 1719212335912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.06866398966612133, "month": -0.06866398966612133}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.06866398966612133, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.06866398966612133}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719216087604 | 1719458138326 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999956 | qh1d9ye1sp | {"NO": 1034.937634624101, "YES": 9.66241797133242} | 0.9907501268573317 | will-openai-begin-rolling-out-the-n | 5551.835073746805 | Will OpenAI begin rolling out the new GPT-4o voice mode before July 15th? | 1721879940000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719213482132 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, from now until through July 14th, some portion of non-insider users are able to use the fancier voice mode (as opposed to the current text to speech system) that can, for example, talk faster or slower at will, or change the emotion and tone of the voice. That is, it roughly matches the GPT-4o demo. However, it will still resolve YES if there are additional restrictions on the voice mode, but it's still clearly the same system that was in the demo.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise. Solely ugrades to the text to speech which are not the system that was in the demo will resolve as no. It must be called something with \"4o\" on the name, and must be available on the ChatGPT website or app, otherwise it resolves no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question idea from ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2", "label": "Flowers"}}, {"text": ", who had a similar question that ends today, June 24th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will let myself bet in this market because it's fairly unambiguous resolution criteria. If there is any unexpected ambiguity, the question will resolve to yes if 90% is hit and sustained above 89% for 3 days any time after July 25th, or to no if 10% is hit and sustained below 11% for 3 days any time after July 25th.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.040750126857332925, "month": 0.49075012685733166} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 80.65251557333741, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719681243986 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 20 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681240708 | 1719600522965 | 0 |
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