p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | n27lg5rwif | {"NO": 49.99999999999999, "YES": 200.00000000000006} | 0.19999999999999993 | will-managrams-be-enabled-during-th | 102.32978224412291 | Will Managrams be enabled during the next Manifest? | 1790924340000 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719214848457 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is planning to remove managrams due to the pivot. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Managram is a way to directly send mana between any two Manifold users in good standing. Prize poi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.30000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.329782244122856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | nikki | 1719215255931 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719215252812 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | lj646b5bkb | {"NO": 465.68222783292197, "YES": 2147.3870812153496} | 0.17821273481740607 | will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-pro | 1306.3515506248089 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | 1735689540000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.663325934829013 | False | basic | public | 1719215086321 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original question on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25499/russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-renewal/", "class": "bre... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05716816604964953, "month": -0.32178726518259393} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.825066392090196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1719818204923 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 19 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719818201861 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7xy0huvycb | will-i-ever-make-it-to-the-masters | 0 | Will I ever make it to the Masters league in Manifold? | 1735682340000 | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719216425738 | Iason Koukas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm currently 6th in the Diamond league, in my group, but I won't make it to 2nd this month for sure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least I'll most likely remain in the Diamond league. "... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IasonKoukas | 1719250639264 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702729254788 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719250638334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wtbuohcray | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066194} | 0 | will-either-trump-or-biden-sit-down | 1072.9542136490004 | Will either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the June 27th debate? | 1719652516121 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719217064073 | Dialethia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the televised debate on June 27th, this market will resolve to yes. If this does not occur, or if no such debate happens, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01000000000000003, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.632631430989956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719652516121 | 100 | Dialethia | 1719652516121 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713946675676 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719539556405 | 0.01 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jphlgcq7tg | {"NO": 64.71952020129244, "YES": 154.51288836656582} | 0.29520963904960257 | will-psilocybin-be-federally-desche | 56 | Will psilocybin be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | vJc2cW0lpWST6eADzD0dPo2zJRo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719219716090 | XVII | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changing from Schedule 1 to anything else of lower level will resolve this YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20479036095039743} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4871116334341823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | XVII | 1719594521709 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695514337326 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719594518643 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gie0enqspq | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-7etb0te334 | 50 | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1120 and 1121? | 1720767540000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719223160491 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719944220004 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719335655633 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | bv7x3ej82b | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-there-are-probably-no-superhum | 0 | Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719224312759 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719224313312 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ors41qcs37 | {"NO": 42.351178254735686, "YES": 236.1209395368309} | 0 | will-joe-biden-drink-water-before-d | 321.06329146256303 | Will Joe Biden drink water before Donald Trump in the June presidential debate? | 1719644340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719225585633 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if neither of them drinks ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1520840886714378, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.126411614766928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719861768695 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1719644340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 8 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719643363387 | 1719543722682 | 0.15 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ntwinyr4ax | {"NO": 158.43032887753668, "YES": 63.119227681019275} | 0.7151010877138148 | will-the-uk-foreign-secretary-go-to | 60 | Will the UK Foreign Secretary go to China before 2025? | 1735660740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719226073200 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any UK Foreign Secretary ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China= mainland China", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21510108771381475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5696711224633204, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaWilkes | 1719252744747 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719252741510 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
r9z7todqpj | during-ti13-international-2024-whic | 80 | During TI13 (International 2024), which teams will top their groups during the Group Stage? | 1725746340000 | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719226484494 | Tony Gao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://liquipedia.net/dota2/The_International/2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liquipedia.net/dota2/The_International/2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.190659014882012, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | TonyGao | 1719236536724 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "qsdi13n9hi", "prob": 0.3116126242455589, "text": "Team Spirit", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.728078860872534, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.863083811569874, "textFts": "'spirit':2 'team':1", "contractId": "r9z7todqpj", "createdTime": 1719226484494, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697428923391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719236533657 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vkafq4ontu | {"NO": 1325.757839087738, "YES": 754.2855644648562} | 0.6373702764199153 | will-zvi-use-claude-35-for-the-majo | 3167.548047922236 | Will Zvi use Claude 3.5 for the majority of his LLM chats each month through October 2024? | 1730519940000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582721159481357 | False | basic | public | 1719227893506 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How fast things change! Claude 3.5 Sonnet is clearly best right now. Will that change again soon?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Zvi uses Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a future Clau... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.017205748756238926, "month": 0.13737027641991528} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.5035953882037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719993888165 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 25 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719993885103 | 1719329288063 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | e1nxc3rxty | {"NO": 80.48599305712015, "YES": 124.24522106477698} | 0.39313005299328085 | will-someone-from-seri-mats-win-a-t | 25 | Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040 | 2240629140000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719227941819 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686994700671915} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7547789352230201, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719252851829 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719252848768 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vxbgxwk34r | {"NO": 196.4157293167617, "YES": 50.91241946246012} | 0.7941503233103192 | will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-100-bcc4amzl8u | 115 | Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719228035099 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Semaglutide drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.05831500713712412, "month": 0.2941503233103192} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.695720923448912, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768329228 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768326171 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | dqs1awwmtk | {"NO": 133.98616895798665, "YES": 74.63456920792805} | 0.64224760268765 | will-pcsk9-inhibitors-cost-less-tha-174rkp4gl7 | 35 | Will PCSK9 inhibitors cost less than $1000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719228259788 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of PCSK9 inhibitors drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before January 1st, 2030. Various factors such as discounts and... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.11865744414413493, "month": 0.14224760268765002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0138310420133534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719658658575 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719658655367 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | hre90mchar | {"NO": 47.544375842636825, "YES": 210.32981972669427} | 0.18437042813713483 | will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less-qya2tff8vv | 135 | Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $1000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719230097326 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Lp(a)-reducing therapy drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts, generics, or insuranc... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.04996161402047472, "month": -0.31562957186286517} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9876545522704907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768318054 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768314875 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mml9si6bou | {"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996} | 0.5460535652294758 | will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p | 10 | Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719230459670 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Keytruda drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719237043728 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719237040676 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46zeaou25m | when-will-claude-35-opus-be-release | 2086.853496326593 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | 1733115540000 | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719232394249 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Anthropic release a model called Claude 3.5 Opus and make it generally available?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released on June 20. Regarding future plans, A... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.80104760304636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoshYou | 1719616469612 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c | 23 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "g6cbuzzdqp", "prob": 0.1871732116033553, "text": "June or July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.5262950497787, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 601.5705054653195, "textFts": "'2024':4 'juli':3 'june':1", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChange... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660237757154 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719616466403 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0duypzwp0c | when-will-claude-4-be-released-5t4gts5a6w | 912.1497490709385 | In which quarter will Claude 4 be released? | 1743566340000 | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719233774706 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Anthropic release Claude 4 and make it generally available? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When Anthropic released Claude 3.5 Sonnet on June 20, they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.818049744228887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoshYou | 1719401634210 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c | 8 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c8acofcwjh", "prob": 0.08415135316613433, "text": "Q3 2024 or earlier", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.5040340203815, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 952.3370467003074, "textFts": "'2024':2 'earlier':4 'q3':1", "contractId": "0duypzwp0c", "createdTime": 1719233774706, "probChan... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660237757154 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719386918827 | True | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999996 | mws7iij5nw | {"NO": 218.67359669776005, "YES": 45.73025802388719} | 0.8270439057250883 | will-the-claude-4-series-of-models | 155 | Will the Claude 4 series of models come out before 2026? | 1798745040000 | wkA0N4FfASaBmfTcZKY7YCNP2WI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719235629110 | typeofemale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.32704390572508835} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.993069968906628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | typeofemale | 1719354584030 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I3UMA5PlNFsWQAoZ6Cp9AJho1hF07pgwh99ES=s96-c | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674447975773 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719354580894 | wkA0N4FfASaBmfTcZKY7YCNP2WI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dkg1nvgngc | in-wonderful-precure-what-will-sato | 30 | In Wonderful Precure, what will Satoru and Daifuku's transformation item be? | 1735649940000 | Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719236218784 | Lambda Fairy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-prim... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8555652345819436, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | tfae | 1719320339852 | 0 | 2 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f95b8ayasu", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "Perfume", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.941254943511034, "userId": "Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.845393778259012, "textFts": "'perfum':1", "contractId": "dkg1nvgngc", "createdTime": 1719236218784, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08766220... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690369385049 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719320336790 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | o6ow2amrbv | {"NO": 186.094898702408, "YES": 5373.602430656323} | 0 | will-donald-trump-terminate-his-par | 6785.30096422329 | Will Donald Trump terminate his participation in the presidential debate on June 27, 2024 prior to its stated end time? | 1719545090718 | fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.887736149424668 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719239047848 | John O. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.32823202538126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719545090718 | 1000 | JohnO | 1719545090718 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696817462342 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719542664418 | 0.03 | fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 366yctldkr | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-but-why-would-the-ai-kill-us-m | 0 | Will "But why would the AI kill us?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719239219878 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719239219957 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | lu8p5uunog | {"NO": 984.7390856333453, "YES": 1099.0743227062596} | 0.1272898374774907 | will-big-mac-subsidy-make-the-top-f | 100 | Will "Big Mac Subsidy?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905073181957796 | False | public | 1719239658178 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01271016252250931} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9256772937403596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719242422793 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719242419712 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1lyzxi3xl7 | which-blockchain-will-the-brics-fir | 10 | Which blockchain will the BRICS FIRST use to issue their new gold standard currency? | 1767196740000 | NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719240482126 | Yu Matthew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People are encouraged to add their own answers. This question will be resolved according to the official announcement from the BRICS organization. If no official announcement is made by BRICS on this topic before December 31, 2025, this question wi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.41174121261045116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | YuMatthew | 1719240507589 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcv7-YdT2KrY1LeMjA_TiGixe1Z2noF3pqHIssxSojg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "tmhgsawvbq", "prob": 0.3255521944574901, "text": "Ethereum", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.568719915392236, "userId": "NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.03866817590024, "textFts": "'ethereum':1", "contractId": "1lyzxi3xl7", "createdTime": 1719240482126, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691211556648 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719240504382 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wwf3zr7dtp | how-will-brazil-perform-in-copa-ame | 401.6503031397546 | How will Brazil perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243634611 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4399119267527722, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1720032555736 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "w0wvbhwel3", "prob": 0.004411782384361249, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6642063534239069, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 375.5543888617741, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 17192436346... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720032551611 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wm3xd0598y | how-will-uruguay-perform-in-copa-am | 1229.1651742598915 | How will Uruguay perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243664778 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9970585297316887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1719925200288 | 0 | 9 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bu9fmw91qp", "prob": 0.00048061334654156694, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5482041401249944, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1140.086245714009, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 171924366... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719925195891 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7fkpct9n0d | how-will-argentina-perform-in-copa | 7176.264501540714 | How will Argentina perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243697789 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 74.5931635403455, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1720149020438 | 0 | 10 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "m7fn6jef0u", "prob": 0.0027099306640256384, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3031918372043556, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 479.5917087239955, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "7fkpct9n0d", "createdTime": 1719243697... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720149017348 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0c7lacc9qj | how-will-colombia-perform-in-copa-a | 7495.625292225549 | How will Colombia perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243850874 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.43241649215905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1719893051364 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vpq9iq15wj", "prob": 0.007432305854071752, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.1633247925651893, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 288.907149840825, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 171924385087... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719893048138 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0zj7lcjfdm | {"NO": 5494.590926839889, "YES": 181.99717018335537} | 1 | time-machine-coin-flip-25-now-in-ba | 5280 | Time Machine Coin Flip 2/5: now in Basic! | 1719471540000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886206216711303 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719245109468 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over 10 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.05308001671966, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719505993311 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719471540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719442505944 | 0.97 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 93mvcmu2gt | {"NO": 994.9874371066248, "YES": 10.050378152592174} | 1 | india-to-win-t20-world-cup | 1533.88686214209 | India to Win T20 World Cup ? | 1719719363460 | WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719245855248 | Shaikh Niyaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3217163455022186, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.640569327426473, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719719363460 | 100 | ShaikhNiyaz | 1719719363460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c | 9 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714146486603 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719684435534 | 0.99 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t7wkyhznde | {"NO": 1741.4699667966238, "YES": 574.227531376534} | 0.7520282628324558 | will-hamster-kombat-airdrop-before | 760 | Will Hamster Kombat airdrop before August 1st? | 1722549540000 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.618755539641914 | False | basic | public | 1719247726968 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hamster Kombat is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a viral Telegram-based crypto game with over 150M active players where you can mine HMSTR coins by managing a virtual crypto exchange", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.25202826283245583} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.530033203376192, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719375726659 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719375723620 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9k3btdim89 | who-will-win-the-france-vs-poland-e | 3380.9037410523124 | Who will win the France vs Poland Euro Match | 1719338548465 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719248195991 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France vs Poland", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.39343363805979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719338548465 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719338548465 | 0 | 2 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1dtvwtk4w1", "prob": 0.5, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 599.7967135296559, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 416.80788567315074, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "9k3btdim89", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "createdTime": 1... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719338154093 | 1719338498892 | 0.5 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999982 | pvsvn7b9o | {"NO": 9949.874371066186, "YES": 100.50378152592157} | 1 | will-nate-silvers-2024-general-elec | 12981.897174810309 | Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate? | 1719423003351 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923029 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719248656447 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 130.4629671184885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719423003351 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719423003351 | 0 | 40 | 10 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719422039212 | 1719330881755 | 0.99 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | t1ak19om8g | {"NO": 50.58100412932512, "YES": 197.702678547703} | 0.20372262721397524 | will-i-subvert-my-internet-blocks-o-5thpkt347s | 158.9855072463768 | Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024. | 1735689540000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719249161453 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The commitment markets for this were working great, but there was a gap in them, and I took advantage of it. This market is meant to plug future gaps. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve YES if I... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.29627737278602473, "month": -0.29627737278602473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.311814205920205, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Charlie | 1720093526439 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719878738687 | 1720093524603 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | clop5gdkmt | {"NO": 1128.152149635535, "YES": 886.4052604279193} | 0 | will-person-submit-application-for | 1915.989315884692 | Will [person] submit application for [project] before the end of June? | 1719892740000 | FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572591977295506 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719250859619 | inaimathi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a [city] organization that provides space for alignment researchers, and currently hosts meetups of the [group]. They need [project] to continue operating, and [project] needs to be applied for. Will [person] compile and submit that applic... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.7999999999999996, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.9274532033538, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719944152278 | 1000 | inaimathi | 1719892740000 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694283259231 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719873507396 | 1719271109238 | 0.56 | FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4801edfkwl | how-much-will-inside-out-2-gross-at | 5291.521781663466 | How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719254819432 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of June 24th 2024, \"Inside Out 2\" as grossed over $700M and is the biggest movie of 2024 -- all in its first two weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/inside-out-2-becomes-highest-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.57872590905334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 2000 | Moscow25 | 1720169854729 | 0 | 15 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "o103ekxiu2", "prob": 0.011585610523904414, "text": "Under $1B globally", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.787775947348035, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2455.999356155069, "textFts": "'1b':2 'global':3", "contractId": "4801edfkwl", "createdTime": 1719254819433, "probChanges": {... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720169851571 | 1719890874969 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 7c30o25ncd | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi | 0 | Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719255171702 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719255171741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jbpkdp6lx2 | add-options-who-would-be-so-good-th | 96 | [Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election? | 1735689540000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719256547161 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "High percent answer = Manifold users would vote for this person instead of themselves", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Low Percent answer = Manifold would vote for themselves instead of this person", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5908427669020928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1720034890842 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 6 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ge1479goxu", "prob": 0.049976291240704296, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.293584738124178, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.59987156253298, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "jbpkdp6lx2", "createdTime": 1719256547161, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720034886998 | 1719271592275 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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n4aopev800 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan-tq2y990y6b | 205 | To which is the last round that Jannik Sinner will advance in the 2024 US Open tournament? 🎾 | 1725861600000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719258467789 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.226046611525596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719348038742 | 0 | 3 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vw4zdt8ciz", "prob": 0.273876999727775, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 125.36233226177285, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 332.369906613266, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "n4aopev800", "createdTime": 1719258467789, "probChanges": {"day": 0.015627377546244214, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719348035543 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ee6dlantf1 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-car-t2xvkdsdfa | 350 | To which is the last round that Carlos Alcaraz will advance in the 2024 US Open tournament? 🎾 | 1725861600000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719258563212 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.038406548839646, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719788051078 | 0 | 4 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hv1ex0p64w", "prob": 0.2810183296982505, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 127.61531414193175, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.5020890856849, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "ee6dlantf1", "createdTime": 1719258563212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.13816118684... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719788048039 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | 9v3c4ic039 | {"NO": 204.1241452319315, "YES": 4898.979485566357} | 1 | will-i-promote-to-diamond-this-seas-5wyneh2myw | 5538.3703475303355 | Will I promote to Diamond this season? | 1719849540000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894234618461553 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719269864149 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 5th place, 25 mana ahead of 6th place, when writing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I don't spend much time on Manifold nowadays.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3796636676689429, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.29491971191017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719885379487 | 1000 | bohaska | 1719916124342 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719848795297 | 1719916123567 | 0.04 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | qq7s1l1378 | {"NO": 515.5800469472482, "YES": 1939.563033753935} | 0.20999999999999996 | china-will-win-more-medals-in-the-p | 1590.9120376838766 | China will win more medals in the Paris Olympics than the USA | 1725173940000 | diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63977867810561 | False | basic | public | 1719270255649 | TBTBTB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.1302592398921, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | tftftftftftftftftftftftf | 1719434885732 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftftftftftftftftftftftftf%2FXEt4hEGLLS.09?alt=media&token=52a8c65d-6154-49d2-bd0d-58823e877c2b | 13 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650856164826 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719434882577 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5egiwe2w08 | friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-5altvbzyjv | 828.240038881404 | Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on? | 1719633540000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | vorr92ihdf | public | 1719272642051 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll 2 dice using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.679899823272503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719671051228 | 1100 | Haws | 1719633540000 | 0 | 5 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "t411oz931p", "prob": 0.034298468805322016, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.77770902369592, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 922.8832917557288, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "5egiwe2w08", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1719272642051, ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719633348970 | 1719670086440 | {"vorr92ihdf": 100} | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ibuztq9ib4 | {"NO": 1808.559576230977, "YES": 552.9262143987488} | 0.7658566413599709 | will-starliner-have-crew-on-it-next | 1786.1400970033128 | Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit? | 1767221940000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62568292010273 | False | basic | public | 1719274653197 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first crewed test seemed to have a lot of problems. Will they do another uncrewed flight after this or will they continue with sending crew?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.030606929110417735, "month": 0.2658566413599709} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.89647747459324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mqrius | 1719884643385 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719884640324 | 1719328975761 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7e25mim4z9 | taco-tuesday-0625-sunset-hike | 5587.005704584046 | Taco Tuesday 06/25: Sunset Hike | 1719385140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719276181475 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, come when you can, targeting dinner at 7pm. If you're looking for something to bring: dessert, drinks, sides to share, and new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.83346478739942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719421892952 | 1000 | Austin | 1719385140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 10 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hne2gcnkjx", "prob": 0.96, "text": "10+ attendees", "index": 0, "poolNo": 941.7464133568874, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.474279097510575, "textFts": "'10':1 'attende':2", "contractId": "7e25mim4z9", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2",... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719376440581 | 1719334261332 | 0.14 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tq99jmh39l | is-arkansas-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Arkansas in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276314622 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276314651 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["yi9f38cc76"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nnvwk9uwc5 | is-colorado-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Colorado in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276366352 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276366382 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["iydiwvukab"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vpwldaalm9 | is-illinois-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Illinois in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276440807 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276440837 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["82z4qff2ot"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tpu07yjn9w | is-indiana-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Indiana in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276482847 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276482875 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["nytfz2tvq9"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6lakqcaemj | is-iowa-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Iowa in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276517286 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276517321 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["ex5at5a7t6"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
422pxdfvoj | is-kansas-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Kansas in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276551866 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276551902 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["ieyg4j3bgt"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uolzak3vqu | is-kentucky-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Kentucky in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276752008 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276752039 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["ekhvlom2aw"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1axgelldlq | is-michigan-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Michigan in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277273931 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277273963 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["zlsfvozo37"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
a2tm0qtiw4 | is-minnesota-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Minnesota in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277341504 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277341536 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["b8ioz3sr0p"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m5i079o53b | first-trump-vs-biden-presidential-d | 38584.86027694983 | First Trump vs Biden presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said? | 1719619820846 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719277364973 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each word/phrase resolves YES if any presidential candidate says it during the first presidential debate (currently scheduled for June 27); otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plural... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 339.0596728897414, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719619820846 | 2900 | jack | 1719619892949 | 0 | 26 | 19 | ANYONE | [{"id": "t22jugyg35", "prob": 0.01, "text": "\"AI\" OR \"Artificial Intelligence\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.050378152592145, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 994.9874371066194, "textFts": "'ai':1 'artifici':3 'intellig':4", "contractId": "m5i079o53b", "resolution": "NO", "resolve... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719615353290 | 1719619890640 | 0 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | False | liquidity | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vf4ovmk8vm | is-missouri-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Missouri in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277427234 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277427267 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["t84goj2wos"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
a4u5l37wqo | is-montana-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Montana in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277493612 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277493643 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["hsqn8qzsq3"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61vga7n2yt | is-nebraska-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Nebraska in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277679266 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277679298 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["r3e3o9ienf"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20qjhrxbq1 | is-new-mexico-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is New Mexico in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719277720882 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719277721087 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["hv6zylpqyd"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hv54n4zfxi | when-will-trumps-vp-pick-be-officia | 119936.57867181252 | When will Trump's VP pick be officially announced? | 1721458740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.029274121236739 | False | plus | public | 1719278320710 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced by the specified date, Pacific time. Otherwise resolves NO (that includes if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate, for example).", "type": "text"}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1221.1524914229715, "platformFee": 221.15249142297142, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20504.43813457294 | 51200 | jack | 1720238601934 | 0 | 124 | 11 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ebhdmqc0k5", "prob": 0.01, "text": "On or before 6/27 (first debate day)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.50961099859742, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11686.376242947612, "textFts": "'6/27':4 'day':7 'debat':6 'first':5", "contractId": "hv54n4zfxi", "resolution": "NO", "res... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720238598600 | 1719512379608 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5up780e1en | is-new-york-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is New York in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278326565 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278326594 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["5qo8d1mvcj"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g8327lu95g | is-north-dakota-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is North Dakota in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278717636 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278717666 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["zvvxbq0t61"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
p7y6rcv9nz | is-pure-effective-altruism-moral | 0 | Is pure effective altruism moral? | oigmP5QCNyV1PO3bBdDxkxwpQxB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719278769885 | Alon Ragoler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As in, money should be distributed precisely according to counterfactual impact and no other causes should receive this (despite concerns such as justice, corruption, and equity)", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AlonRagoler | 1719278769885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpfo1fYA8-tasZ4QczW0qEvjON_jEY1H9XrftbvZRtnjFwLN4_=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714877266677 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6gfwlvjt82 | is-ohio-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Ohio in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278844928 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278844964 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["o9qfwvr5sb"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g2dqykimzb | is-oklahoma-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Oklahoma in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278892459 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278892496 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["b1i9bqklnw"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97ndtu1rpo | is-pennsylvania-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Pennsylvania in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279342038 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | MarkHamill | 1719279342085 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["zkmxf2qk2a"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jdiw8z0kfh | is-south-dakota-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is South Dakota in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279373318 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279373443 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["1su6z322f8"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k8vh5nhtyx | is-tennessee-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Tennessee in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279412352 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | MarkHamill | 1719279412381 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["2dmz34rtsm"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wy26q8a8vs | is-west-virginia-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is West Virginia in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279442982 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279443013 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["g6w6hxh9yp"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d0uuqhhh96 | is-wisconsin-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Wisconsin in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279476817 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279476852 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["btvn40ax48"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nyawk5uqts | is-wyoming-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Wyoming in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279515779 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279515807 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["fi4p49t6cz"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 5l9nbvx2on | {"NO": 456.4032967379335, "YES": 2191.044646581941} | 0.17239368120137943 | will-an-openly-gay-man-become-presi | 2441.8690920838653 | Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president? | 2305436340000 | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633920809876109 | False | basic | public | 1719282693547 | JKS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met or the office of President of the United States is abolished.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.018552579847209788, "month": -0.32760631879862057} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.16266954941166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jks | 1719959817046 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680049506454 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719959813731 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9uu39axlrv | {"NO": 1952.6293937851333, "YES": 512.1299531712566} | 1 | will-elon-musk-criticize-joe-biden | 2210.4451077370254 | Will Elon Musk criticize Joe Biden on Twitter during or within a day after the first debate? | 1719536340000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641220390770297 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719284193558 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be very broadly defined—e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "criticizing the \"Biden administration\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1803591223753822600", "class": "break-anywhe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.20778091532695098, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.15473958525366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719702205576 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719536340000 | 0 | 36 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719512801617 | 1719698153131 | 0.79 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 |
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