p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.5
n27lg5rwif
{"NO": 49.99999999999999, "YES": 200.00000000000006}
0.19999999999999993
will-managrams-be-enabled-during-th
102.32978224412291
Will Managrams be enabled during the next Manifest?
1790924340000
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719214848457
nikki
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is planning to remove managrams due to the pivot. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Managram is a way to directly send mana between any two Manifold users in good standing. Prize poi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.30000000000000004}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.329782244122856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
nikki
1719215255931
0
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/gg7v9jhimw.jpg
1678327601414
0
0.25
0.5
1719215252812
0
0.5000000000000001
lj646b5bkb
{"NO": 465.68222783292197, "YES": 2147.3870812153496}
0.17821273481740607
will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-pro
1306.3515506248089
Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?
1735689540000
vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
cpmm-1
0
9.663325934829013
False
basic
public
1719215086321
AVS
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original question on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25499/russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-renewal/", "class": "bre...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05716816604964953, "month": -0.32178726518259393}
0
{"creatorFee": 27.825066392090196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
AVS
1719818204923
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c
19
2
0.13333333333333333
1647160245908
0
0.25
0.5
1719818201861
0
7xy0huvycb
will-i-ever-make-it-to-the-masters
0
Will I ever make it to the Masters league in Manifold?
1735682340000
WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719216425738
Iason Koukas
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm currently 6th in the Diamond league, in my group, but I won't make it to 2nd this month for sure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least I'll most likely remain in the Diamond league. "...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
IasonKoukas
1719250639264
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c
5
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/ysdttaly1c.jpg
1702729254788
0
0.25
1719250638334
0
0.5
wtbuohcray
{"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066194}
0
will-either-trump-or-biden-sit-down
1072.9542136490004
Will either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the June 27th debate?
1719652516121
8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719217064073
Dialethia
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the televised debate on June 27th, this market will resolve to yes. If this does not occur, or if no such debate happens, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.01000000000000003, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.632631430989956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719652516121
100
Dialethia
1719652516121
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c
4
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/sbrk9j8202.jpg
1713946675676
0
0.25
0.5
1719539556405
0.01
8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73
0
0.5
jphlgcq7tg
{"NO": 64.71952020129244, "YES": 154.51288836656582}
0.29520963904960257
will-psilocybin-be-federally-desche
56
Will psilocybin be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 2025?
1767243540000
vJc2cW0lpWST6eADzD0dPo2zJRo2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719219716090
XVII
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changing from Schedule 1 to anything else of lower level will resolve this YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20479036095039743}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4871116334341823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
XVII
1719594521709
0
https://firebasestorage.…a38-35b4d58e821f
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…I/97kcsrd654.jpg
1695514337326
0
0.25
0.5
1719594518643
0
0.5
gie0enqspq
{"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211}
0.4764098414564849
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-7etb0te334
50
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1120 and 1121?
1720767540000
8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2
cpmm-1
0
9.570679451372035
False
basic
public
1719223160491
dwax
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023590158543515094}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
dwax
1719944220004
0
https://firebasestorage.…35a-f30dc5e92bd8
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…ax/nwfoooc5t.jpg
1708101936708
0
0.25
0.5
1719335655633
0
0.14
bv7x3ej82b
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.14
will-there-are-probably-no-superhum
0
Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.894527931239049
False
public
1719224312759
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719224313312
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/5469k9f52e.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
0
0.5
ors41qcs37
{"NO": 42.351178254735686, "YES": 236.1209395368309}
0
will-joe-biden-drink-water-before-d
321.06329146256303
Will Joe Biden drink water before Donald Trump in the June presidential debate?
1719644340000
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719225585633
Savior of Plant
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if neither of them drinks ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.1520840886714378, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.126411614766928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719861768695
100
SaviorofPlant
1719644340000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
8
4
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/q6xhemb0t3.jpg
1698371327350
0
0.25
0.5
1719643363387
1719543722682
0.15
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
0
0.5
ntwinyr4ax
{"NO": 158.43032887753668, "YES": 63.119227681019275}
0.7151010877138148
will-the-uk-foreign-secretary-go-to
60
Will the UK Foreign Secretary go to China before 2025?
1735660740000
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719226073200
Josh Wilkes
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any UK Foreign Secretary ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China= mainland China", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21510108771381475}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.5696711224633204, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
JoshuaWilkes
1719252744747
0
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/d026wzyer8.jpg
1662006482315
0
0.25
0.5
1719252741510
0
r9z7todqpj
during-ti13-international-2024-whic
80
During TI13 (International 2024), which teams will top their groups during the Group Stage?
1725746340000
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719226484494
Tony Gao
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://liquipedia.net/dota2/The_International/2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liquipedia.net/dota2/The_International/2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.190659014882012, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
160
TonyGao
1719236536724
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
1
0
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "qsdi13n9hi", "prob": 0.3116126242455589, "text": "Team Spirit", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.728078860872534, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.863083811569874, "textFts": "'spirit':2 'team':1", "contractId": "r9z7todqpj", "createdTime": 1719226484494, "probChanges": {"day": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/o6r060kzjx.jpg
1697428923391
0
0.25
1719236533657
False
0
0.5000000000000002
vkafq4ontu
{"NO": 1325.757839087738, "YES": 754.2855644648562}
0.6373702764199153
will-zvi-use-claude-35-for-the-majo
3167.548047922236
Will Zvi use Claude 3.5 for the majority of his LLM chats each month through October 2024?
1730519940000
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
cpmm-1
0
9.582721159481357
False
basic
public
1719227893506
Zvi Mowshowitz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How fast things change! Claude 3.5 Sonnet is clearly best right now. Will that change again soon?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Zvi uses Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a future Clau...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.017205748756238926, "month": 0.13737027641991528}
0
{"creatorFee": 77.5035953882037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ZviMowshowitz
1719993888165
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
25
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…z/97makk73qe.jpg
1644001035848
0
0.25
0.5
1719993885103
1719329288063
0
0.5
e1nxc3rxty
{"NO": 80.48599305712015, "YES": 124.24522106477698}
0.39313005299328085
will-someone-from-seri-mats-win-a-t
25
Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040
2240629140000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719227941819
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10686994700671915}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7547789352230201, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1719252851829
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/odsdl9p98w.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1719252848768
0
0.5000000000000002
vxbgxwk34r
{"NO": 196.4157293167617, "YES": 50.91241946246012}
0.7941503233103192
will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-100-bcc4amzl8u
115
Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?
1898981940000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719228035099
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Semaglutide drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.05831500713712412, "month": 0.2941503233103192}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.695720923448912, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719768329228
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
4
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/ggxvxdobs1.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719768326171
0
0.5
dqs1awwmtk
{"NO": 133.98616895798665, "YES": 74.63456920792805}
0.64224760268765
will-pcsk9-inhibitors-cost-less-tha-174rkp4gl7
35
Will PCSK9 inhibitors cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?
1898981940000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719228259788
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of PCSK9 inhibitors drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before January 1st, 2030. Various factors such as discounts and...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.11865744414413493, "month": 0.14224760268765002}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.0138310420133534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719658658575
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/vo64hupnpg.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719658655367
0
0.4999999999999999
hre90mchar
{"NO": 47.544375842636825, "YES": 210.32981972669427}
0.18437042813713483
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less-qya2tff8vv
135
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?
1898981940000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719230097326
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Lp(a)-reducing therapy drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts, generics, or insuranc...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.04996161402047472, "month": -0.31562957186286517}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.9876545522704907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719768318054
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/yx87893ikr.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719768314875
0
0.5
mml9si6bou
{"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996}
0.5460535652294758
will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p
10
Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?
1898981940000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719230459670
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Keytruda drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719237043728
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/gn8aw41a38.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719237040676
0
46zeaou25m
when-will-claude-35-opus-be-release
2086.853496326593
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
1733115540000
kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719232394249
Josh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Anthropic release a model called Claude 3.5 Opus and make it generally available?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released on June 20. Regarding future plans, A...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 44.80104760304636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JoshYou
1719616469612
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c
23
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "g6cbuzzdqp", "prob": 0.1871732116033553, "text": "June or July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.5262950497787, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 601.5705054653195, "textFts": "'2024':4 'juli':3 'june':1", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChange...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…u/e0xss1kgwg.jpg
1660237757154
0
0.25
1719616466403
True
0
0duypzwp0c
when-will-claude-4-be-released-5t4gts5a6w
912.1497490709385
In which quarter will Claude 4 be released?
1743566340000
kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719233774706
Josh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Anthropic release Claude 4 and make it generally available? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When Anthropic released Claude 3.5 Sonnet on June 20, they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 19.818049744228887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JoshYou
1719401634210
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c
8
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "c8acofcwjh", "prob": 0.08415135316613433, "text": "Q3 2024 or earlier", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.5040340203815, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 952.3370467003074, "textFts": "'2024':2 'earlier':4 'q3':1", "contractId": "0duypzwp0c", "createdTime": 1719233774706, "probChan...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…u/fto9tgknmt.jpg
1660237757154
0
0.25
1719386918827
True
kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1
0
0.4999999999999996
mws7iij5nw
{"NO": 218.67359669776005, "YES": 45.73025802388719}
0.8270439057250883
will-the-claude-4-series-of-models
155
Will the Claude 4 series of models come out before 2026?
1798745040000
wkA0N4FfASaBmfTcZKY7YCNP2WI2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719235629110
typeofemale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.32704390572508835}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.993069968906628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
typeofemale
1719354584030
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I3UMA5PlNFsWQAoZ6Cp9AJho1hF07pgwh99ES=s96-c
7
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/f4gj2pk3ds.jpg
1674447975773
0
0.25
0.5
1719354580894
wkA0N4FfASaBmfTcZKY7YCNP2WI2
0
dkg1nvgngc
in-wonderful-precure-what-will-sato
30
In Wonderful Precure, what will Satoru and Daifuku's transformation item be?
1735649940000
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719236218784
Lambda Fairy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-prim...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8555652345819436, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
tfae
1719320339852
0
https://firebasestorage.…ddb-10ca8d6fc3c7
2
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "f95b8ayasu", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "Perfume", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.941254943511034, "userId": "Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.845393778259012, "textFts": "'perfum':1", "contractId": "dkg1nvgngc", "createdTime": 1719236218784, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08766220...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/my9usmmhiw.jpg
1690369385049
0
0.25
1719320336790
False
0
0.4999999999999998
o6ow2amrbv
{"NO": 186.094898702408, "YES": 5373.602430656323}
0
will-donald-trump-terminate-his-par
6785.30096422329
Will Donald Trump terminate his participation in the presidential debate on June 27, 2024 prior to its stated end time?
1719545090718
fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2
cpmm-1
0
9.887736149424668
True
basic
NO
public
1719239047848
John O.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 61.32823202538126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719545090718
1000
JohnO
1719545090718
0
https://storage.googleap…jwNXo5zY4pR2.png
29
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…O/5kraxs7mmx.jpg
1696817462342
0
0.25
0.5
1719542664418
0.03
fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2
0
0.14
366yctldkr
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.14
will-but-why-would-the-ai-kill-us-m
0
Will "But why would the AI kill us?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.894527931239049
False
public
1719239219878
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719239219957
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/tx7qr0em2o.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
0
0.13999999999999999
lu8p5uunog
{"NO": 984.7390856333453, "YES": 1099.0743227062596}
0.1272898374774907
will-big-mac-subsidy-make-the-top-f
100
Will "Big Mac Subsidy?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.905073181957796
False
public
1719239658178
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01271016252250931}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9256772937403596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719242422793
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/86d7bzna55.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719242419712
0
1lyzxi3xl7
which-blockchain-will-the-brics-fir
10
Which blockchain will the BRICS FIRST use to issue their new gold standard currency?
1767196740000
NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719240482126
Yu Matthew
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People are encouraged to add their own answers. This question will be resolved according to the official announcement from the BRICS organization. If no official announcement is made by BRICS on this topic before December 31, 2025, this question wi...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.41174121261045116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
YuMatthew
1719240507589
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcv7-YdT2KrY1LeMjA_TiGixe1Z2noF3pqHIssxSojg=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "tmhgsawvbq", "prob": 0.3255521944574901, "text": "Ethereum", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.568719915392236, "userId": "NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.03866817590024, "textFts": "'ethereum':1", "contractId": "1lyzxi3xl7", "createdTime": 1719240482126, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…w/sfwmx3rkvi.jpg
1691211556648
0
0.25
1719240504382
True
0
wwf3zr7dtp
how-will-brazil-perform-in-copa-ame
401.6503031397546
How will Brazil perform in Copa America?
1721689140000
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719243634611
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.4399119267527722, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
10thOfficial
1720032555736
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
6
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "w0wvbhwel3", "prob": 0.004411782384361249, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6642063534239069, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 375.5543888617741, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 17192436346...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/drbxeq8grq.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
1720032551611
True
0
wm3xd0598y
how-will-uruguay-perform-in-copa-am
1229.1651742598915
How will Uruguay perform in Copa America?
1721689140000
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719243664778
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.9970585297316887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
10thOfficial
1719925200288
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
9
3
DISABLED
[{"id": "bu9fmw91qp", "prob": 0.00048061334654156694, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5482041401249944, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1140.086245714009, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 171924366...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/02qgj6co57.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
1719925195891
True
0
7fkpct9n0d
how-will-argentina-perform-in-copa
7176.264501540714
How will Argentina perform in Copa America?
1721689140000
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719243697789
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 74.5931635403455, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
10thOfficial
1720149020438
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
10
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "m7fn6jef0u", "prob": 0.0027099306640256384, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3031918372043556, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 479.5917087239955, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "7fkpct9n0d", "createdTime": 1719243697...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/5tu7vburk2.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
1720149017348
True
0
0c7lacc9qj
how-will-colombia-perform-in-copa-a
7495.625292225549
How will Colombia perform in Copa America?
1721689140000
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719243850874
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 92.43241649215905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
10thOfficial
1719893051364
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
6
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "vpq9iq15wj", "prob": 0.007432305854071752, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.1633247925651893, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 288.907149840825, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 171924385087...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/6mdt6g7a72.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
1719893048138
True
0
0.5
0zj7lcjfdm
{"NO": 5494.590926839889, "YES": 181.99717018335537}
1
time-machine-coin-flip-25-now-in-ba
5280
Time Machine Coin Flip 2/5: now in Basic!
1719471540000
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
cpmm-1
0
9.886206216711303
True
basic
YES
public
1719245109468
Interrobang
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over 10 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 50.05308001671966, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719505993311
1000
Interrobang
1719471540000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
5
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/9entwpbqcs.jpg
1716758434952
0
0.25
0.5
False
False
1719442505944
0.97
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
0
0.4999999999999999
93mvcmu2gt
{"NO": 994.9874371066248, "YES": 10.050378152592174}
1
india-to-win-t20-world-cup
1533.88686214209
India to Win T20 World Cup ?
1719719363460
WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719245855248
Shaikh Niyaz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.3217163455022186, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.640569327426473, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719719363460
100
ShaikhNiyaz
1719719363460
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c
9
6
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…z/ted22oy93y.jpg
1714146486603
0
0.25
0.5
1719684435534
0.99
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
0
0.5000000000000001
t7wkyhznde
{"NO": 1741.4699667966238, "YES": 574.227531376534}
0.7520282628324558
will-hamster-kombat-airdrop-before
760
Will Hamster Kombat airdrop before August 1st?
1722549540000
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
cpmm-1
0
9.618755539641914
False
basic
public
1719247726968
D
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hamster Kombat is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a viral Telegram-based crypto game with over 150M active players where you can mine HMSTR coins by managing a virtual crypto exchange", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.25202826283245583}
0
{"creatorFee": 18.530033203376192, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
xPMEx
1719375726659
0
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
3
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/2sed6qqxfs.jpg
1719227559161
0
0.25
0.5
1719375723620
0
9k3btdim89
who-will-win-the-france-vs-poland-e
3380.9037410523124
Who will win the France vs Poland Euro Match
1719338548465
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1719248195991
D
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France vs Poland", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 69.39343363805979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719338548465
1000
xPMEx
1719338548465
0
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
2
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "1dtvwtk4w1", "prob": 0.5, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 599.7967135296559, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 416.80788567315074, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "9k3btdim89", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "createdTime": 1...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/vsq6ltwbht.jpg
1719227559161
0
0.25
1719338154093
1719338498892
0.5
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
False
0
0.4999999999999982
pvsvn7b9o
{"NO": 9949.874371066186, "YES": 100.50378152592157}
1
will-nate-silvers-2024-general-elec
12981.897174810309
Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate?
1719423003351
oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52
cpmm-1
0
9.849721441923029
True
basic
YES
public
1719248656447
David Lin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 130.4629671184885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719423003351
1000
dlin007
1719423003351
0
https://firebasestorage.…a64-8f5b65aa3484
40
10
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…7/wpkr5q6znf.jpg
1698079516511
0
0.25
0.5
1719422039212
1719330881755
0.99
oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52
0
0.5
t1ak19om8g
{"NO": 50.58100412932512, "YES": 197.702678547703}
0.20372262721397524
will-i-subvert-my-internet-blocks-o-5thpkt347s
158.9855072463768
Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024.
1735689540000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719249161453
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The commitment markets for this were working great, but there was a gap in them, and I took advantage of it. This market is meant to plug future gaps. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve YES if I...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.29627737278602473, "month": -0.29627737278602473}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.311814205920205, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Charlie
1720093526439
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/mk78fl4t3x.jpg
1648498239600
0
0.25
0.5
1719878738687
1720093524603
0
0.4999999999999998
clop5gdkmt
{"NO": 1128.152149635535, "YES": 886.4052604279193}
0
will-person-submit-application-for
1915.989315884692
Will [person] submit application for [project] before the end of June?
1719892740000
FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1
cpmm-1
0
9.572591977295506
True
basic
NO
public
1719250859619
inaimathi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a [city] organization that provides space for alignment researchers, and currently hosts meetups of the [group]. They need [project] to continue operating, and [project] needs to be applied for. Will [person] compile and submit that applic...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.7999999999999996, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 54.9274532033538, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719944152278
1000
inaimathi
1719892740000
0
https://firebasestorage.…f1b-6b8056fdb600
5
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/hz7lrk5m90.jpg
1694283259231
0
0.25
0.5
1719873507396
1719271109238
0.56
FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1
0
0.5000000000000004
ji16eo2xhg
{"NO": 1088.3913871153618, "YES": 918.7871310249593}
0.5422494199089837
will-a-president-of-the-usa-die-whi
1311
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
2556140340000
gGDWCSpUoZQuU4G2cyZmCgOUmNS2
cpmm-1
0
9.571447430790553
False
basic
public
1719251041104
kian_spire
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historical data shows that eight U.S. Presidents have died in office, with the last occurrence in 1963. But will there be more before the end of 2050? It doesn't matter how he or she dies, only if she does. So natural death and things like assassi...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.042249419908983676}
0
{"creatorFee": 42.29268473465092, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
kian_spire
1719421716430
0
https://firebasestorage.…2d5-48c8affb6aa8
15
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/2wbdvs5wti.jpg
1673711311777
0
0.25
0.5
1719421713372
0
k3brtfo19p
what-will-happen-with-record-label
7789.441072561407
What will happen with record label lawsuits against Suno (AI music company) in 2024? Multiple options (not exclusive).
1735707540000
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
cpmm-multi-1
0
8.33844473801564
False
plus
public
1719251322010
Niko
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 24th 2024, major record labels (Sony, Universal, Warner) announced lawsuits against AI music startups Suno and Udio for copyright infringement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/major-r...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 207.34868941181634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
360
10000
Moscow25
1720192496201
0
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
25
4
DISABLED
[{"id": "k0afuunjpv", "prob": 0.4345334237795383, "text": "Suno will shut down or severely limit its music service.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1225.7919589728542, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1595.1462977693084, "textFts": "'limit':7 'music':9 'servic':10 'sever':6 'shut':3 'suno'...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…5/1iyut1xaot.jpg
1715368331856
0
0.25
1720192490977
1719259317533
False
0
0.49999999999999895
sshxh00j0x
{"NO": 994.9874371066202, "YES": 10.050378152592089}
1
will-india-beat-england-2024-t20-cr
3723.221553416757
Will India beat England? | 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup 🏏
1719518705995
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719253367658
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOhj4OxNOgG.jpg?alt=media&token=437c205e-2571-4d53-8f08-2b03e9107046", "title": null}}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "co...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 33.293051803006975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719518705995
100
10thOfficial
1719518705995
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
12
11
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/lshe6rag9b.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
0.5
1719517197977
1719281426553
0.99
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
0
0.4999999999999992
keubcsrh6c
{"NO": 994.9874371066194, "YES": 10.050378152592316}
1
will-afghanistan-defeat-bangladesh
958.1046485476112
Will Afghanistan defeat Bangladesh in the 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup?
1719292086490
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719253884885
Kevin Burke
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The game will take place tonight, June 24 at 5:30pm Pacific ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.987055804566683, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719292086490
100
KevinBurke
1719292086490
0
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
4
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/91dffih709.jpg
1668407142709
0
0.25
0.5
1719292082055
0.99
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
0
2mnbz7qk3b
hows-gonna-be-melees-number-one-for
140.33195428551562
How's gonna be melee's number one for 2024
1738483140000
Bt3D7JBUmZRMSeA19Zxa8YI2ZM53
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719254675953
Edwin Meza
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Melee's year is past half of it's course and some players can definitely turn the motors up to catch up to the top, who you think he's gonna be number one by the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4241052569385657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
EdwinMeza
1719827304372
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2xUO00dMTzqQqFVpWY4CsTxMWFWAlAI_71dA3oy2xI5VP5hiL=s96-c
2
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "z9zzs7fpx6", "prob": 0.30000000000000004, "text": "Cody Schwab", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.363062095621222, "userId": "Bt3D7JBUmZRMSeA19Zxa8YI2ZM53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.18047822311618, "textFts": "'codi':1 'schwab':2", "contractId": "2mnbz7qk3b", "createdTime": 1719254675954, "probChanges": {"day":...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/75gns5qgsk.jpg
1719238307004
0
0.25
1719827301099
True
0
4801edfkwl
how-much-will-inside-out-2-gross-at
5291.521781663466
How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time?
1735707540000
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719254819432
Niko
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of June 24th 2024, \"Inside Out 2\" as grossed over $700M and is the biggest movie of 2024 -- all in its first two weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/inside-out-2-becomes-highest-...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 63.57872590905334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
2000
Moscow25
1720169854729
0
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
15
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "o103ekxiu2", "prob": 0.011585610523904414, "text": "Under $1B globally", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.787775947348035, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2455.999356155069, "textFts": "'1b':2 'global':3", "contractId": "4801edfkwl", "createdTime": 1719254819433, "probChanges": {...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…5/wtss1jibg9.jpg
1715368331856
0
0.25
1720169851571
1719890874969
True
0
0.14
7c30o25ncd
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.14
will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi
0
Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.894527931239049
False
public
1719255171702
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719255171741
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
0
0.14000000000000004
un1i1vwsm9
{"NO": 1023.596575398075, "YES": 866.5229704393839}
0.16128461393464583
will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi-60ybgvcqep
25
Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.880147286215282
False
public
1719255171988
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021284613934645813}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4034246019249816, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719289058412
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/57274g2w1c.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719289055370
1719289023847
0
0.5
ahqj671zrt
{"NO": 72.05567873259446, "YES": 138.7815669200891}
0.3417597232857672
will-i-end-up-with-at-least-3-new-v
55
Will I end up with at least 3 new "very intense" kinks before Christmas?
1719903540000
wo18q3DFpwRHa3Naz8LrvvQMVph2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719255253354
\bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1582402767142328}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.5942717604321213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
bot1mi8f
1719260826632
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcqvuJDtfisXVTdh-TX0s8bLCvdf97OxHHnTT8yRj0oDRk=s96-c
2
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…f/gsaykmxvc3.jpg
1688104789265
0
0.25
0.5
1719260823182
1719260815059
0
0.5
pygrqv948n
{"NO": 59.79475057065258, "YES": 167.23876100434853}
0.2633741166924568
will-claude-opus-35-release-before
69
Will Claude Opus 3.5 release before Trump's Vice President Running Mate?
1722484740000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719256487581
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2366258833075432}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.7612389956514614, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1719256807401
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/ybtmax0sf6.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719256804248
0
jbpkdp6lx2
add-options-who-would-be-so-good-th
96
[Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election?
1735689540000
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719256547161
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "High percent answer = Manifold users would vote for this person instead of themselves", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Low Percent answer = Manifold would vote for themselves instead of this person", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.5908427669020928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
TheAllMemeingEye
1720034890842
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
6
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "ge1479goxu", "prob": 0.049976291240704296, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.293584738124178, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.59987156253298, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "jbpkdp6lx2", "createdTime": 1719256547161, "probChanges": {"day...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/6yvnvknz0x.jpg
1704035290346
0
0.25
1720034886998
1719271592275
False
0
0.5000000000000001
46rw1fwvzv
{"NO": 106.75119972979371, "YES": 93.67576219575784}
0.5326189585682908
will-claude-35-haiku-release-before
110.33569699891743
Will Claude 3.5 Haiku release before the end of July?
1722484740000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719256882900
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.026163458514508076, "month": 0.03261895856829078}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.7080095863287883, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1720016318487
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
7
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…eo/jxho953wp.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1720016315382
0
n4aopev800
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan-tq2y990y6b
205
To which is the last round that Jannik Sinner will advance in the 2024 US Open tournament? 🎾
1725861600000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719258467789
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.226046611525596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719348038742
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
3
2
DISABLED
[{"id": "vw4zdt8ciz", "prob": 0.273876999727775, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 125.36233226177285, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 332.369906613266, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "n4aopev800", "createdTime": 1719258467789, "probChanges": {"day": 0.015627377546244214, "wee...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/pafw4zv5u3.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719348035543
True
0
ee6dlantf1
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-car-t2xvkdsdfa
350
To which is the last round that Carlos Alcaraz will advance in the 2024 US Open tournament? 🎾
1725861600000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719258563212
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 11.038406548839646, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719788051078
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
4
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "hv1ex0p64w", "prob": 0.2810183296982505, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 127.61531414193175, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.5020890856849, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "ee6dlantf1", "createdTime": 1719258563212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.13816118684...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/pkbns3dqjg.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719788048039
True
new
0
vdrx6vjcyc
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay-mf9bgzxr7m
100
To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 US Open tournament? 🎾
1725861600000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719258627811
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8100929182285634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719342458605
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
1
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "jxqlhzrwao", "prob": 0.1494114936242958, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 85.55130286000805, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 487.0371960886201, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "vdrx6vjcyc", "createdTime": 1719258627811, "probChanges": {"day": 0.003181270499364258, "we...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/gw2mebaidr.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719342455394
True
new
0
0.4999999999999992
26dktivpe8
{"NO": 985.1944042831115, "YES": 10.150280956251095}
1
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-u3wa1v2gyy
937.0835605979445
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 25 than it closed on June 24?
1719345690931
Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719259731254
Jim Fix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.01657199091862, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719345690931
100
JimFix
1719345690931
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c
7
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/6867wvsodi.jpg
1696775041650
0
0.25
0.5
1719344153413
0.99
Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12
0
nwlzdhnafx
which-position-in-the-2024-nba-draf
56594.77828246317
Which position in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will Bronny James be drafted?
1719524520000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
jor4e67anv
public
1719259821678
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will close no earlier than 10 minutes after Bronny is drafted and no later than 10 minutes after the 58th pick of the draft.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be resol...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 178.99293896763166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719526533407
5900
ovals
1719526575604
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
21
13
DISABLED
[{"id": "fetrigr932", "prob": 0.0002708581760229212, "text": "1 - Atlanta", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.375845990309244, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23533.050151509182, "textFts": "'1':1 'atlanta':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "creat...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/nhzz1z1syq.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719526306571
1719526573389
{"jor4e67anv": 100}
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
True
0
0.5
vpbf3jukax
{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066202}
0
logan-sargeant-has-2-or-more-track
923.6199400830084
Logan Sargeant has 2 or more track limit lap time deletions during qualifying at the 2024 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix
1719713642883
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719261208815
Kevin Burke
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Austria GP track is notable because of the number of track limits violations in the corner before the finish line which leads a lot of lap times to be deleted. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/verstappen...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.44804324581932553, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.769981042584698, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719713642883
100
KevinBurke
1719713642883
0
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
5
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/pqdvps2wn5.jpg
1668407142709
0
0.25
0.5
1719713637817
1719713178164
0.01
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
0
0.5000000000000003
mwb42kdjtq
{"NO": 1551.9195251566482, "YES": 644.3633086574263}
0.7066118722339502
will-taylor-swift-sing-so-long-lond-kgunswixao
567
Will Taylor Swift sing "So Long, London" during her any of her AUGUST Wembley shows?
1724281140000
XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3
cpmm-1
0
9.600576183365801
False
basic
public
1719262564514
Sara
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor Swift is back for round 2 of the Eras Tour in London on 15th, 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th August 2024. Will she sing \"So Long, London\" during any of her Wembley shows?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.20661187223395017}
0
{"creatorFee": 15.080474843351839, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
csgoldie
1719304320000
0
https://firebasestorage.…223-862625d8ff10
6
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/114pg74z5d.jpg
1717185599667
0
0.25
0.5
1719304316873
0
0.5
1gzemi7980
{"NO": 978.9736792562136, "YES": 1021.4779224297037}
0.4893763380384537
will-there-be-a-new-reputation-outf
76
Will there be a new Reputation outfit for Taylor Swift's Eras Tour before it ends in December?
1733788740000
XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3
cpmm-1
0
9.570403445530847
False
basic
public
1719262893352
Sara
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor has multiple outfits for every other era during her Eras Tour. The reputation outfit has been unchanged since the start of her tour in 2023. Will the eras tour see a new reputation outfit before it ends in December?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010623661961546293}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.560488358384095, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
csgoldie
1719305996316
0
https://firebasestorage.…223-862625d8ff10
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/vtv4p2dtld.jpg
1717185599667
0
0.25
0.5
1719305993045
0
0.499860710708898
0ojyn2dj1a
{"NO": 562.7387697255231, "YES": 1781.0135231746779}
0.24000000000000055
will-i-finish-the-san-francisco-mar
1640.239790911511
Will I finish the San Francisco marathon on the 28th of July?
1722236340000
bVxIqkqpoUeu28DWGxLCYOrkoEU2
cpmm-1
0
9.619135331120614
False
basic
public
1719264799408
Simon Baars
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have tickets for the San Francisco marathon on 28th July, and have done two marathons before. However, I got a condition called \"jumper's knee\" 3 weeks ago, that has rendered me unable to run ever since. I already know I'll be skipping the trai...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.25999999999999945}
0
{"creatorFee": 40.3149048462288, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1001
Simon1
1720127958251
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpWwkBfk1HjzrIKeO0CZhY0I95YwybPcrlHHSgsSkbB2skJ8cWQQ=s96-c
8
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…1/uwi6hvw4be.jpg
1715640468399
0
0.25
0.5
1719374027782
1720127956782
0
5qq2u9gpr3
what-will-be-manifolds-2024-country
870
What will be Manifold's 2024 Country of The Year?
1736981940000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-multi-1
0
7.870333727036353
False
plus
public
1719265181574
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the winner of the poll ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"What was Manifold's 2024 Country of the Year\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", that will be run by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 23.097774107956486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
itsTomekK
1719346526880
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
3
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "fvvo5bld9u", "prob": 0.19654271144250304, "text": "USA", "index": 0, "poolNo": 813.8639850270185, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3327.0373949008135, "textFts": "'usa':1", "contractId": "5qq2u9gpr3", "createdTime": 1719265181574, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10006402917226864...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…K/iv87e1bv81.jpg
1658666303973
0
0.25
1719346523718
True
0
0.5045783820015859
73bfumdowu
{"NO": 10976.75205526831, "YES": 9124.790650297191}
0.5506008504336858
is-the-lmsys-chatbot-arena-leaderbo
1970
Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?
1814479140000
Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93
cpmm-1
0
2.7306215315937097
False
plus
public
1719265374666
Javi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LLMs can distinguish their own output from the output of different LLMs ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "they have a preference for their own output", "type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.041236109042926405, "month": 0.050600850433685785}
0
{"creatorFee": 64.80228786941615, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
10000
JavierPrieto
1720097541073
0
https://firebasestorage.…69b-446bc575b844
16
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/68s6m0d8pz.jpg
1647283995840
0
0.25
0.5
1720097538002
0
0.5000000000000002
lx52495kkb
{"NO": 531.0850045437941, "YES": 1882.9377433825439}
0.22000000000000003
will-metafacebook-and-apple-announc
2959.432348040515
Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024?
1733029140000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
9.63360206760387
False
basic
public
1719266340146
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/rumored-apple-and-meta-collaboration-might-make-the-iphone-16-a-better-ai-phone", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.techradar.com/computing/artifici...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.27999999999999997}
0
{"creatorFee": 78.43300048289386, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
strutheo
1719414124892
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
21
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/30ekv7fxvu.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719414121835
1719315789291
0
0.5000000000000001
oezvz3urqd
{"NO": 350.00000000000006, "YES": 350.00000000000006}
0.5000000000000001
will-apple-release-an-iphone-that-u
0
Will Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?
1830315540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268203219
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
strutheo
1719268360567
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/7f6jbtu7vj.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719268359577
0
0.4584649312544429
n0dowx6m17
{"NO": 333.07754721610735, "YES": 369.36780407511714}
0.4329214339639099
will-apple-release-an-iphone-that-u-e8w9fbr8pz
20
Will Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?
1798779540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268228256
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -0.06707856603609008}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6321959248829003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
strutheo
1719269317521
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/v49lj9mawq.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719269314452
1719268356975
0
0.4442264952528029
u3bpcta8ii
{"NO": 270.03980473906665, "YES": 476.0962059252996}
0.31193749285469
will-google-release-a-pixel-phone-t
129.48763914132675
Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?
1798779540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268259904
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18806250714530998}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.391433216027084, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
strutheo
1719367227647
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/m93nkrwarg.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719367223800
1719268351555
0
0.5000000000000001
rilox7uux7
{"NO": 307.4682729990546, "YES": 398.41509110885323}
0.43557942945380457
will-google-release-a-pixel-phone-t-7b22dsfpzr
50
Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?
1830315540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268260124
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06442057054619554}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.584908891146849, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
strutheo
1719479224416
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/qhflk0ol6m.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719479221334
1719268286435
0
0.4913102174763421
ym2gb396wo
{"NO": 161.88982444273626, "YES": 248.5112327612607}
0.3861950463542815
will-tesla-release-a-car-using-soli
50
Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?
1798779540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268462267
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11380495364571841}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4887672387393645, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
200
strutheo
1719290765407
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/vvgxzew5tk.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719290762339
1719268492493
0
0.4992602158229231
mtpi9nqh9o
{"NO": 141.64703787921536, "YES": 282.6240685007677}
0.33320195106074446
will-tesla-release-a-car-using-soli-5ib3li2dku
85
Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2027?
1830315540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719268487800
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.16679804893925565}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.3759314992323435, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
200
strutheo
1719367175494
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
3
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/p7rkgjaaq6.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719367172472
1719268501051
0
vxe3x5hr0a
how-many-weeks-until-openai-is-roll
7964.491317500759
How many weeks until OpenAI is rolling out the new voice mode to a broader audience? [Resolved as per one of the rules]
1719434718271
0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
a8a5os37uh
public
1719268491045
Flowers
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weeks Count", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "0 weeks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 128.86784373596464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719434718271
190
Flowers
1719446824328
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab5-833a5ffa92f8
20
12
DISABLED
[{"id": "a8a5os37uh", "prob": 0.8803350800168602, "text": "June 24 - June 30", "index": 0, "poolNo": 60.733446821565025, "userId": "0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.25556452216316, "textFts": "'24':2 '30':4 'june':1,3", "contractId": "vxe3x5hr0a", "resolverId": "0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/kd372cjt4s.jpg
1710466450203
0
0.25
1719434712302
1719446822308
{"a8a5os37uh": 100}
0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2
True
0
0.5000000000000003
ru2iuqhlza
{"NO": 587.2814648001547, "YES": 1702.7610437872188}
0.25645002771691927
will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj
2669.186316095876
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
1798790340000
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
cpmm-1
0
9.614863714572797
False
basic
public
1719269009832
cshunter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if an AI system is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "known ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(because of good evidence) to have ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "autonomously ", "type": "text", "marks": [...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.24354997228308073}
0
{"creatorFee": 69.08456157195197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
cash
1719420927876
0
https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e
20
4
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…h/itgeu0hjaf.jpg
1669744545591
0
0.25
0.5
1719420924803
1719337915005
0
0.5000000000000002
9v3c4ic039
{"NO": 204.1241452319315, "YES": 4898.979485566357}
1
will-i-promote-to-diamond-this-seas-5wyneh2myw
5538.3703475303355
Will I promote to Diamond this season?
1719849540000
3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3
cpmm-1
0
9.894234618461553
True
basic
YES
public
1719269864149
Bohaska
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 5th place, 25 mana ahead of 6th place, when writing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I don't spend much time on Manifold nowadays.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.3796636676689429, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 83.29491971191017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719885379487
1000
bohaska
1719916124342
0
https://firebasestorage.…c1a-2f61d7d0735a
18
9
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/frcsaovcnn.jpg
1692081472895
0
0.25
0.5
1719848795297
1719916123567
0.04
3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3
0
0.5000000000000001
qq7s1l1378
{"NO": 515.5800469472482, "YES": 1939.563033753935}
0.20999999999999996
china-will-win-more-medals-in-the-p
1590.9120376838766
China will win more medals in the Paris Olympics than the USA
1725173940000
diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73
cpmm-1
0
9.63977867810561
False
basic
public
1719270255649
TBTBTB
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29000000000000004}
0
{"creatorFee": 37.1302592398921, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
tftftftftftftftftftftftf
1719434885732
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftftftftftftftftftftftftf%2FXEt4hEGLLS.09?alt=media&token=52a8c65d-6154-49d2-bd0d-58823e877c2b
13
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…f/m7f7b200kn.jpg
1650856164826
0
0.25
0.5
1719434882577
0
5egiwe2w08
friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-5altvbzyjv
828.240038881404
Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
1719633540000
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
vorr92ihdf
public
1719272642051
Haws
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mods, please unrank.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll 2 dice using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 15.679899823272503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719671051228
1100
Haws
1719633540000
0
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
5
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "t411oz931p", "prob": 0.034298468805322016, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.77770902369592, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 922.8832917557288, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "5egiwe2w08", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "createdTime": 1719272642051, ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/nrc3silfwn.jpg
1677434458766
0
0.25
1719633348970
1719670086440
{"vorr92ihdf": 100}
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
True
0
0.5000000000000001
ibuztq9ib4
{"NO": 1808.559576230977, "YES": 552.9262143987488}
0.7658566413599709
will-starliner-have-crew-on-it-next
1786.1400970033128
Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?
1767221940000
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
cpmm-1
0
9.62568292010273
False
basic
public
1719274653197
Mqrius
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first crewed test seemed to have a lot of problems. Will they do another uncrewed flight after this or will they continue with sending crew?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.030606929110417735, "month": 0.2658566413599709}
0
{"creatorFee": 42.89647747459324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Mqrius
1719884643385
0
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
13
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/wbzh5rjyr2.jpg
1668945784174
0
0.25
0.5
1719884640324
1719328975761
0
7e25mim4z9
taco-tuesday-0625-sunset-hike
5587.005704584046
Taco Tuesday 06/25: Sunset Hike
1719385140000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1719276181475
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, come when you can, targeting dinner at 7pm. If you're looking for something to bring: dessert, drinks, sides to share, and new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 38.83346478739942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719421892952
1000
Austin
1719385140000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
10
4
DISABLED
[{"id": "hne2gcnkjx", "prob": 0.96, "text": "10+ attendees", "index": 0, "poolNo": 941.7464133568874, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.474279097510575, "textFts": "'10':1 'attende':2", "contractId": "7e25mim4z9", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2",...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/oj14pln1pg.jpg
1639011767273
0
0.25
1719376440581
1719334261332
0.14
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
False
0
tq99jmh39l
is-arkansas-in-the-midwest
0
Is Arkansas in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276314622
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276314651
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
9
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/wohwgjz3rk.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["yi9f38cc76"]
0
nnvwk9uwc5
is-colorado-in-the-midwest
0
Is Colorado in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276366352
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276366382
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
11
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/cffske920d.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["iydiwvukab"]
0
vpwldaalm9
is-illinois-in-the-midwest
0
Is Illinois in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276440807
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276440837
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/xk97krexzi.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["82z4qff2ot"]
0
tpu07yjn9w
is-indiana-in-the-midwest
0
Is Indiana in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276482847
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276482875
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
8
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/7sy7xm9y4r.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["nytfz2tvq9"]
0
6lakqcaemj
is-iowa-in-the-midwest
0
Is Iowa in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276517286
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276517321
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
9
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/x1h698gaue.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["ex5at5a7t6"]
0
422pxdfvoj
is-kansas-in-the-midwest
0
Is Kansas in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276551866
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276551902
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/awt37lz7et.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["ieyg4j3bgt"]
0
uolzak3vqu
is-kentucky-in-the-midwest
0
Is Kentucky in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719276752008
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719276752039
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
9
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/j3fdwrv8uv.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["ekhvlom2aw"]
0
1axgelldlq
is-michigan-in-the-midwest
0
Is Michigan in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277273931
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277273963
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/5yzr1ilcnj.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["zlsfvozo37"]
0
a2tm0qtiw4
is-minnesota-in-the-midwest
0
Is Minnesota in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277341504
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277341536
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
7
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/7dwy6wa3m9.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["b8ioz3sr0p"]
0
m5i079o53b
first-trump-vs-biden-presidential-d
38584.86027694983
First Trump vs Biden presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said?
1719619820846
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
MKT
public
1719277364973
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each word/phrase resolves YES if any presidential candidate says it during the first presidential debate (currently scheduled for June 27); otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plural...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 339.0596728897414, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719619820846
2900
jack
1719619892949
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
26
19
ANYONE
[{"id": "t22jugyg35", "prob": 0.01, "text": "\"AI\" OR \"Artificial Intelligence\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.050378152592145, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 994.9874371066194, "textFts": "'ai':1 'artifici':3 'intellig':4", "contractId": "m5i079o53b", "resolution": "NO", "resolve...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/y5ik2y1q5v.jpg
1641102645330
0
0.25
1719615353290
1719619890640
0
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
False
liquidity
0
vf4ovmk8vm
is-missouri-in-the-midwest
0
Is Missouri in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277427234
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277427267
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/2bnx7a2cmg.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["t84goj2wos"]
0
a4u5l37wqo
is-montana-in-the-midwest
0
Is Montana in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277493612
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277493643
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/8grrsec9of.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["hsqn8qzsq3"]
0
61vga7n2yt
is-nebraska-in-the-midwest
0
Is Nebraska in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277679266
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277679298
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
9
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/gqt1a1y0t2.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["r3e3o9ienf"]
0
20qjhrxbq1
is-new-mexico-in-the-midwest
0
Is New Mexico in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719277720882
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719277721087
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/0bxqx5vvte.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["hv6zylpqyd"]
0
hv54n4zfxi
when-will-trumps-vp-pick-be-officia
119936.57867181252
When will Trump's VP pick be officially announced?
1721458740000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.029274121236739
False
plus
public
1719278320710
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced by the specified date, Pacific time. Otherwise resolves NO (that includes if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate, for example).", "type": "text"}...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1221.1524914229715, "platformFee": 221.15249142297142, "liquidityFee": 0}
20504.43813457294
51200
jack
1720238601934
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
124
11
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "ebhdmqc0k5", "prob": 0.01, "text": "On or before 6/27 (first debate day)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.50961099859742, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11686.376242947612, "textFts": "'6/27':4 'day':7 'debat':6 'first':5", "contractId": "hv54n4zfxi", "resolution": "NO", "res...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/eacso1uflv.jpg
1641102645330
0
0.25
1720238598600
1719512379608
False
alphabetical
0
5up780e1en
is-new-york-in-the-midwest
0
Is New York in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719278326565
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719278326594
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
16
0
0.13333333333333333
1670287347607
0
0.25
["5qo8d1mvcj"]
0
g8327lu95g
is-north-dakota-in-the-midwest
0
Is North Dakota in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719278717636
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719278717666
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
8
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/rb3nkn4yhy.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["zvvxbq0t61"]
0
p7y6rcv9nz
is-pure-effective-altruism-moral
0
Is pure effective altruism moral?
oigmP5QCNyV1PO3bBdDxkxwpQxB2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719278769885
Alon Ragoler
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As in, money should be distributed precisely according to counterfactual impact and no other causes should receive this (despite concerns such as justice, corruption, and equity)", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
AlonRagoler
1719278769885
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpfo1fYA8-tasZ4QczW0qEvjON_jEY1H9XrftbvZRtnjFwLN4_=s96-c
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/zxyysia1lw.jpg
1714877266677
0
0.25
0
6gfwlvjt82
is-ohio-in-the-midwest
0
Is Ohio in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719278844928
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719278844964
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
13
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/avwt84rn8g.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["o9qfwvr5sb"]
0
g2dqykimzb
is-oklahoma-in-the-midwest
0
Is Oklahoma in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719278892459
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719278892496
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
11
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/1qyuucjuo1.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["b1i9bqklnw"]
0
97ndtu1rpo
is-pennsylvania-in-the-midwest
0
Is Pennsylvania in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279342038
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541876
MarkHamill
1719279342085
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/g4vlr2ai6n.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["zkmxf2qk2a"]
0
jdiw8z0kfh
is-south-dakota-in-the-midwest
0
Is South Dakota in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279373318
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719279373443
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
11
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/kvjues0jah.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["1su6z322f8"]
0
k8vh5nhtyx
is-tennessee-in-the-midwest
0
Is Tennessee in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279412352
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541876
MarkHamill
1719279412381
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/z6kdvrhetq.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["2dmz34rtsm"]
0
wy26q8a8vs
is-west-virginia-in-the-midwest
0
Is West Virginia in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279442982
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719279443013
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/427jac2dwz.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["g6w6hxh9yp"]
0
d0uuqhhh96
is-wisconsin-in-the-midwest
0
Is Wisconsin in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279476817
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719279476852
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
13
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/qybvccgw7s.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["btvn40ax48"]
0
nyawk5uqts
is-wyoming-in-the-midwest
0
Is Wyoming in the Midwest?
1719903540000
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719279515779
Mark Hamill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
MarkHamill
1719279515807
0
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
12
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/bqipcuxmro.jpg
1670287347607
0
0.25
["fi4p49t6cz"]
0
0.5000000000000004
5l9nbvx2on
{"NO": 456.4032967379335, "YES": 2191.044646581941}
0.17239368120137943
will-an-openly-gay-man-become-presi
2441.8690920838653
Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president?
2305436340000
5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2
cpmm-1
0
9.633920809876109
False
basic
public
1719282693547
JKS
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met or the office of President of the United States is abolished.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.018552579847209788, "month": -0.32760631879862057}
0
{"creatorFee": 51.16266954941166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
jks
1719959817046
0
https://firebasestorage.…638-cbc4a0a8faa6
16
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/pjwfx0nffj.jpg
1680049506454
0
0.25
0.5
1719959813731
0
0.5
9uu39axlrv
{"NO": 1952.6293937851333, "YES": 512.1299531712566}
1
will-elon-musk-criticize-joe-biden
2210.4451077370254
Will Elon Musk criticize Joe Biden on Twitter during or within a day after the first debate?
1719536340000
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
cpmm-1
0
9.641220390770297
True
basic
YES
public
1719284193558
Ziddletwix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be very broadly defined—e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "criticizing the \"Biden administration\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1803591223753822600", "class": "break-anywhe...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.20778091532695098, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 53.15473958525366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719702205576
1000
Ziddletwix
1719536340000
0
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
36
8
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/o9kxl7yo89.jpg
1680369520541
0
0.25
0.5
1719512801617
1719698153131
0.79
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
0