p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | n27lg5rwif | {"NO": 49.99999999999999, "YES": 200.00000000000006} | 0.19999999999999993 | will-managrams-be-enabled-during-th | 102.32978224412291 | Will Managrams be enabled during the next Manifest? | 1790924340000 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719214848457 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is planning to remove managrams due to the pivot. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Managram is a way to directly send mana between any two Manifold users in good standing. Prize point grams would also count. Bounties/manalinks do not count, and it does not matter what the name of a managram is.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO at close date, if no Manifest, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "using this criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.30000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.329782244122856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | nikki | 1719215255931 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719215252812 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | lj646b5bkb | {"NO": 465.68222783292197, "YES": 2147.3870812153496} | 0.17821273481740607 | will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-pro | 1306.3515506248089 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | 1735689540000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.663325934829013 | False | basic | public | 1719215086321 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original question on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25499/russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-renewal/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This questions resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "signed a new agreement", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "before January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Fine Print", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05716816604964953, "month": -0.32178726518259393} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.825066392090196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AVS | 1719818204923 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 19 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647160245908 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719818201861 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7xy0huvycb | will-i-ever-make-it-to-the-masters | 0 | Will I ever make it to the Masters league in Manifold? | 1735682340000 | WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719216425738 | Iason Koukas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm currently 6th in the Diamond league, in my group, but I won't make it to 2nd this month for sure. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least I'll most likely remain in the Diamond league. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IasonKoukas | 1719250639264 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702729254788 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719250638334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wtbuohcray | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066194} | 0 | will-either-trump-or-biden-sit-down | 1072.9542136490004 | Will either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the June 27th debate? | 1719652516121 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719217064073 | Dialethia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either Trump or Biden sit down at any point during the televised debate on June 27th, this market will resolve to yes. If this does not occur, or if no such debate happens, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01000000000000003, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.632631430989956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719652516121 | 100 | Dialethia | 1719652516121 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713946675676 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719539556405 | 0.01 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jphlgcq7tg | {"NO": 64.71952020129244, "YES": 154.51288836656582} | 0.29520963904960257 | will-psilocybin-be-federally-desche | 56 | Will psilocybin be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | vJc2cW0lpWST6eADzD0dPo2zJRo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719219716090 | XVII | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changing from Schedule 1 to anything else of lower level will resolve this YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20479036095039743} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4871116334341823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | XVII | 1719594521709 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695514337326 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719594518643 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gie0enqspq | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-7etb0te334 | 50 | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1120 and 1121? | 1720767540000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719223160491 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 1120”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 1120”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719944220004 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719335655633 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | bv7x3ej82b | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-there-are-probably-no-superhum | 0 | Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719224312759 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: strong human players beat the strongest AIs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Es6cinTyuTq3YAcoK/there-are-probably-no-superhuman-go-ais-strong-human-players", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719224313312 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ors41qcs37 | {"NO": 42.351178254735686, "YES": 236.1209395368309} | 0 | will-joe-biden-drink-water-before-d | 321.06329146256303 | Will Joe Biden drink water before Donald Trump in the June presidential debate? | 1719644340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719225585633 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if neither of them drinks ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1520840886714378, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.126411614766928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719861768695 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1719644340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 8 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719643363387 | 1719543722682 | 0.15 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ntwinyr4ax | {"NO": 158.43032887753668, "YES": 63.119227681019275} | 0.7151010877138148 | will-the-uk-foreign-secretary-go-to | 60 | Will the UK Foreign Secretary go to China before 2025? | 1735660740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719226073200 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any UK Foreign Secretary ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China= mainland China", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21510108771381475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5696711224633204, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaWilkes | 1719252744747 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719252741510 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.1883873757544411}, {"id": "vhlcdsvqu2", "prob": 0.3116126242455589, "text": "beastcoast", "index": 15, "poolNo": 6.728078860872534, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.863083811569874, "textFts": "'beastcoast':1", "contractId": "r9z7todqpj", "createdTime": 1719226484494, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1883873757544411, "week": -0.1883873757544411, "month": -0.1883873757544411}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1883873757544411, "probChangeWeek": -0.1883873757544411, "totalLiquidity": 10.000000000000002, "probChangeMonth": -0.1883873757544411}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697428923391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719236533657 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vkafq4ontu | {"NO": 1325.757839087738, "YES": 754.2855644648562} | 0.6373702764199153 | will-zvi-use-claude-35-for-the-majo | 3167.548047922236 | Will Zvi use Claude 3.5 for the majority of his LLM chats each month through October 2024? | 1730519940000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582721159481357 | False | basic | public | 1719227893506 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How fast things change! Claude 3.5 Sonnet is clearly best right now. Will that change again soon?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Zvi uses Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a future Claude 3.5 Opus or Haiku for the majority of his chat LLM queries each month of July, August, September and October.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if this is not the case for at least one month. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "API calls do not count since there might be reason to go cheap or open weights. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.017205748756238926, "month": 0.13737027641991528} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.5035953882037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719993888165 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 25 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719993885103 | 1719329288063 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | vxbgxwk34r | {"NO": 196.4157293167617, "YES": 50.91241946246012} | 0.7941503233103192 | will-semaglutide-cost-less-than-100-bcc4amzl8u | 115 | Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030? | 1898981940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719228035099 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Semaglutide drops below $1000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2030. 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46zeaou25m | when-will-claude-35-opus-be-release | 2086.853496326593 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | 1733115540000 | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719232394249 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Anthropic release a model called Claude 3.5 Opus and make it generally available?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released on June 20. Regarding future plans, Anthropic ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that \"Our aim is to substantially improve the tradeoff curve between intelligence, speed, and cost every few months. To complete the Claude 3.5 model family, we’ll be releasing Claude 3.5 Haiku and Claude 3.5 Opus later this year.\"", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.80104760304636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoshYou | 1719616469612 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c | 23 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "g6cbuzzdqp", "prob": 0.1871732116033553, "text": "June or July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.5262950497787, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 601.5705054653195, "textFts": "'2024':4 'juli':3 'june':1", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.057610995695929285, "month": -0.057610995695929285}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.057610995695929285, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.057610995695929285}, {"id": "ifc1lmln6f", "prob": 0.32756886825058606, "text": "August or September 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 201.48224492412652, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 413.60137398069304, "textFts": "'2024':4 'august':1 'septemb':3", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.06074998646395685, "month": 0.06074998646395685}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.06074998646395685, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.06074998646395685}, {"id": "bmhsnh5qea", "prob": 0.4292000856391812, "text": "October or November 2024", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250.3210243333872, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 332.90584981925787, "textFts": "'2024':4 'novemb':3 'octob':1", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.189736013448501, "month": 0.189736013448501}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.189736013448501, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.189736013448501}, {"id": "hzcbdhiyeb", "prob": 0.05605783450687743, "text": "December 2024 or later", "index": 3, "poolNo": 70.3485001192372, "userId": "kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1184.5786788927621, "textFts": "'2024':2 'decemb':1 'later':4", "contractId": "46zeaou25m", "createdTime": 1719232394250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1928750042165286, "month": -0.1928750042165286}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1928750042165286, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.1928750042165286}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660237757154 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719616466403 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When Anthropic released Claude 3.5 Sonnet on June 20, they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that \"Our aim is to substantially improve the tradeoff curve between intelligence, speed, and cost every few months.\" Since the tradeoff curve is made up of different model sizes, this could be read as Anthropic planning to release a new model ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "family", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " every few months. However, this is not clear, since a delayed release within the same model family can also improve the tradeoff curve.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, Claude 4 must be a frontier model that Anthropic claims to be more intelligent or powerful than any previous Anthropic model. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they released Claude 4 Sonnet first, as they did with 3.5, and 4 Sonnet is superior to their previous best model (e.g. 3.5 Opus), that resolves this question YES. However, if they release 4 Haiku first, and it does not surpass 3.5 Opus, that does not resolve this question. I'll defer to Anthropic's characterizations of their models for this purpose. 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dkg1nvgngc | in-wonderful-precure-what-will-sato | 30 | In Wonderful Precure, what will Satoru and Daifuku's transformation item be? | 1735649940000 | Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719236218784 | Lambda Fairy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is a long-running animated series in the magical girl genre. Its heroes transform into powerful alter egos that fight monsters and save the day. The current season is called ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wonderful Pretty Cure", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderful!_Pretty_Cure", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and will run until the end of this year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A recurring trope is that the Cures each use their own magical item to transform. (These items are sold in real life as children’s toys, which is how the show makes money.) In the case of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wonderful", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", these items are as follows:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Komugi and Iroha use the Wonderful Pact, an electronic gadget", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPYsuVLSehI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ";", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yuki and Mayu use the Shiny Cats Pact, a makeup compact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80UjwV2SjXI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notably, both items are palm-sized with a clamshell shape and built-in mirror.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two other prominent characters are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Satoru", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://prettycure.fandom.com/wiki/Toyama_Satoru", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and his pet rabbit ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Daifuku", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://prettycure.fandom.com/wiki/Daifuku", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "; and, given their role in the story, it’s likely that they'll become Cures as well. When that happens, what item will they use?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May resolve to multiple answers if it makes sense. 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wwf3zr7dtp | how-will-brazil-perform-in-copa-ame | 401.6503031397546 | How will Brazil perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243634611 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4399119267527722, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1720032555736 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "w0wvbhwel3", "prob": 0.004411782384361249, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6642063534239069, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 375.5543888617741, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 1719243634612, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00021054920591254828, "week": -0.027693995226648765, "month": -0.19565913094595117}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00021054920591254828, "probChangeWeek": -0.027693995226648765, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.19565913094595117}, {"id": "pllv34bhd7", "prob": 0.3726928862383236, "text": "Eliminated in quarterfinals", "index": 1, "poolNo": 19.269722213037625, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.434302533802686, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'quarterfin':3", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 1719243634612, "probChanges": {"day": 0.18571373520251552, "week": 0.27442394298647266, "month": 0.22000000000000003}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.18571373520251552, "probChangeWeek": 0.27442394298647266, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.22000000000000003}, {"id": "oo94dpwe8z", "prob": 0.20141197971686428, "text": "Eliminated in semifinals", "index": 2, "poolNo": 12.555131398948939, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.78044276400982, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'semifin':3", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 1719243634612, "probChanges": {"day": -0.048090980898422175, "week": 0.04061922688553493, "month": -0.01380471610093767}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.048090980898422175, "probChangeWeek": 0.04061922688553493, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.01380471610093767}, {"id": "vyhbaauort", "prob": 0.20626678919003233, "text": "Lose final", "index": 3, "poolNo": 12.744341099690452, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.041374137041956, "textFts": "'final':2 'lose':1", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 1719243634612, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04936439490988975, "week": -0.34060135958861015, "month": -0.009364394909889856}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04936439490988975, "probChangeWeek": -0.34060135958861015, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.009364394909889856}, {"id": "ualf9woo9v", "prob": 0.21521656247041873, "text": "Win Copa America", "index": 4, "poolNo": 13.09190783901992, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.739413360153065, "textFts": "'america':3 'copa':2 'win':1", "contractId": "wwf3zr7dtp", "createdTime": 1719243634612, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08804781018829091, "week": 0.05325218494325129, "month": -0.0011717580432213104}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08804781018829091, "probChangeWeek": 0.05325218494325129, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.0011717580432213104}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720032551611 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wm3xd0598y | how-will-uruguay-perform-in-copa-am | 1229.1651742598915 | How will Uruguay perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243664778 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9970585297316887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1719925200288 | 0 | 9 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bu9fmw91qp", "prob": 0.00048061334654156694, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5482041401249944, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1140.086245714009, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 1719243664778, "probChanges": {"day": -0.022990502211134793, "week": -0.027560750280859195, "month": -0.19951938665345845}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.022990502211134793, "probChangeWeek": -0.027560750280859195, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.19951938665345845}, {"id": "7olk7syzy3", "prob": 0.3960514439739853, "text": "Eliminated in quarterfinals", "index": 1, "poolNo": 20.24490930711067, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.871958501709795, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'quarterfin':3", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 1719243664778, "probChanges": {"day": 0.009012062852448266, "week": 0.19631206903795967, "month": 0.21259507858390203}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.009012062852448266, "probChangeWeek": 0.19631206903795967, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.21259507858390203}, {"id": "piorfv8zbl", "prob": 0.25999999999999995, "text": "Eliminated in semifinals", "index": 2, "poolNo": 14.818724459095476, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.176369614348665, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'semifin':3", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 1719243664778, "probChanges": {"day": 0.005535361410865192, "week": -0.09503933868750505, "month": 0.0280702690472672}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.005535361410865192, "probChangeWeek": -0.09503933868750505, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.0280702690472672}, {"id": "fwaax00zjo", "prob": 0.1475188843108499, "text": "Lose final", "index": 3, "poolNo": 10.399714924435337, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.09780119371258, "textFts": "'final':2 'lose':1", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 1719243664778, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0035176698514816918, "week": -0.062354378619992684, "month": -0.04607136907405032}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0035176698514816918, "probChangeWeek": -0.062354378619992684, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.04607136907405032}, {"id": "i37jy1l73t", "prob": 0.19594627204885007, "text": "Win Copa America", "index": 4, "poolNo": 12.341443984659124, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.642372219725516, "textFts": "'america':3 'copa':2 'win':1", "contractId": "wm3xd0598y", "createdTime": 1719243664778, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0049254080963396785, "week": -0.011357601449602739, "month": 0.004925408096339623}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0049254080963396785, "probChangeWeek": -0.011357601449602739, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.004925408096339623}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719925195891 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0c7lacc9qj | how-will-colombia-perform-in-copa-a | 7495.625292225549 | How will Colombia perform in Copa America? | 1721689140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719243850874 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.43241649215905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1719893051364 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "vpq9iq15wj", "prob": 0.007432305854071752, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.1633247925651893, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 288.907149840825, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 1719243850875, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0006775228761506666, "week": -0.19248660649366825, "month": -0.19248660649366825}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0006775228761506666, "probChangeWeek": -0.19248660649366825, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.19248660649366825}, {"id": "2q9ff4h383", "prob": 0.3384514896522112, "text": "Eliminated in quarterfinals", "index": 1, "poolNo": 17.881641171988374, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.95204908703025, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'quarterfin':3", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 1719243850875, "probChanges": {"day": 0.18010828118025607, "week": -0.009999999999998427, "month": -0.009999999999998427}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.18010828118025607, "probChangeWeek": -0.009999999999998427, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.009999999999998427}, {"id": "5xbf6iy3k1", "prob": 0.1599990186077989, "text": "Eliminated in semifinals", "index": 2, "poolNo": 10.910854675959527, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.282405325872105, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'semifin':3", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 1719243850875, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02199447516615076, "week": -0.12368169838343579, "month": -0.12368169838343579}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02199447516615076, "probChangeWeek": -0.12368169838343579, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.12368169838343579}, {"id": "35040lk646", "prob": 0.1341171858859183, "text": "Lose final", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.839038610547716, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.52246644605943, "textFts": "'final':2 'lose':1", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 1719243850875, "probChanges": {"day": -0.049508557945788345, "week": -0.06073771686065654, "month": -0.06073771686065654}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.049508557945788345, "probChangeWeek": -0.06073771686065654, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.06073771686065654}, {"id": "3isv6g5lwl", "prob": 0.36, "text": "Win Copa America", "index": 4, "poolNo": 18.749999999999993, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.33333333333332, "textFts": "'america':3 'copa':2 'win':1", "contractId": "0c7lacc9qj", "createdTime": 1719243850875, "probChanges": {"day": -0.10792772519216631, "week": 0.38690602173775906, "month": 0.38690602173775906}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.10792772519216631, "probChangeWeek": 0.38690602173775906, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.38690602173775906}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719893048138 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0zj7lcjfdm | {"NO": 5494.590926839889, "YES": 181.99717018335537} | 1 | time-machine-coin-flip-25-now-in-ba | 5280 | Time Machine Coin Flip 2/5: now in Basic! | 1719471540000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886206216711303 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719245109468 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over 10 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heads - Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tails - No", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The coins are predetermined, and you can ask one (1) yes/no question about them by PMing me (Interrobang) in the Manifold messenger. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Response guaranteed in 14 hours or your money back!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the first market for slightly more details ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.05308001671966, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719505993311 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719471540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719442505944 | 0.97 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 93mvcmu2gt | {"NO": 994.9874371066248, "YES": 10.050378152592174} | 1 | india-to-win-t20-world-cup | 1533.88686214209 | India to Win T20 World Cup ? | 1719719363460 | WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719245855248 | Shaikh Niyaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3217163455022186, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.640569327426473, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719719363460 | 100 | ShaikhNiyaz | 1719719363460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c | 9 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714146486603 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719684435534 | 0.99 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t7wkyhznde | {"NO": 1741.4699667966238, "YES": 574.227531376534} | 0.7520282628324558 | will-hamster-kombat-airdrop-before | 760 | Will Hamster Kombat airdrop before August 1st? | 1722549540000 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.618755539641914 | False | basic | public | 1719247726968 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hamster Kombat is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a viral Telegram-based crypto game with over 150M active players where you can mine HMSTR coins by managing a virtual crypto exchange", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.25202826283245583} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.530033203376192, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719375726659 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719375723620 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9k3btdim89 | who-will-win-the-france-vs-poland-e | 3380.9037410523124 | Who will win the France vs Poland Euro Match | 1719338548465 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719248195991 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France vs Poland", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.39343363805979, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719338548465 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719338548465 | 0 | 2 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1dtvwtk4w1", "prob": 0.5, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 599.7967135296559, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 416.80788567315074, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "9k3btdim89", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "createdTime": 1719248195991, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08999999999999997, "week": 0.08999999999999997, "month": 0.08999999999999997}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08999999999999997, "probChangeWeek": 0.08999999999999997, "resolutionTime": 1719338540806, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.08999999999999997, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "p37yghatup", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Poland", "index": 1, "poolNo": 416.8078856731502, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 599.7967135296552, "textFts": "'poland':1", "contractId": "9k3btdim89", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "createdTime": 1719248195991, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09000000000000002, "week": -0.09000000000000002, "month": -0.09000000000000002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09000000000000002, "probChangeWeek": -0.09000000000000002, "resolutionTime": 1719338548465, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.09000000000000002, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719338154093 | 1719338498892 | 0.5 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999982 | pvsvn7b9o | {"NO": 9949.874371066186, "YES": 100.50378152592157} | 1 | will-nate-silvers-2024-general-elec | 12981.897174810309 | Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate? | 1719423003351 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923029 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719248656447 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 130.4629671184885, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719423003351 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719423003351 | 0 | 40 | 10 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719422039212 | 1719330881755 | 0.99 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | t1ak19om8g | {"NO": 50.58100412932512, "YES": 197.702678547703} | 0.20372262721397524 | will-i-subvert-my-internet-blocks-o-5thpkt347s | 158.9855072463768 | Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024. | 1735689540000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719249161453 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The commitment markets for this were working great, but there was a gap in them, and I took advantage of it. This market is meant to plug future gaps. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve YES if I break the commitment made below on a day that is NOT covered by a rolling commitment market like the one here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Charlie/will-i-subvert-my-internet-blocks-a-ee1fd854e0a0", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I do not break the commitment at all, this will resolve NO at the end of the year.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If I break the commitment market but on a day that is covered by a commitment market similar to above, this market stays open.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Here's the current description for the commitment:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It's ok if it's for legitimate purposes, but have to reblock right away.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Additional context: I use the Stayfocusd extension on my computer, which gives me 20 minutes a day on my blocked sites, mainly Reddit and Youtube, before blocking them. If I disable the extension and consume content that would normally be blocked, this will resolve YES (if that day wasn't covered by a market as seen above).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I also cannot unblock a second extension I have added as a second layer of blocking.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "*I've developed a few more consumption habits that don't violate the premise above, but are still a waste of time, so I'm including them in the honor system of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- If any of the four added conditions are violated (outside of my daily allowed time), this resolves YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- no nontravel phone netflix", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-- no facebook videos", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-- no twitter unless necessary", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-- no instagram reels", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-- no youtube shorts or tiktok videos", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I also reserve the right to add more conditions to this market ONLY if they make the goal ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "harder", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " not easier, so NO bettors beware.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.29627737278602473, "month": -0.29627737278602473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.311814205920205, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Charlie | 1720093526439 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719878738687 | 1720093524603 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | clop5gdkmt | {"NO": 1128.152149635535, "YES": 886.4052604279193} | 0 | will-person-submit-application-for | 1915.989315884692 | Will [person] submit application for [project] before the end of June? | 1719892740000 | FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572591977295506 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719250859619 | inaimathi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a [city] organization that provides space for alignment researchers, and currently hosts meetups of the [group]. They need [project] to continue operating, and [project] needs to be applied for. Will [person] compile and submit that application before the end of June, giving [project org] enough time to respond before we realistically need them to?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves NO on July 1st if [person] hasn't submitted the application yet. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES any time before July 1st if [person] submits the application. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.7999999999999996, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.9274532033538, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719944152278 | 1000 | inaimathi | 1719892740000 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694283259231 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719873507396 | 1719271109238 | 0.56 | FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | ji16eo2xhg | {"NO": 1088.3913871153618, "YES": 918.7871310249593} | 0.5422494199089837 | will-a-president-of-the-usa-die-whi | 1311 | Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050 | 2556140340000 | gGDWCSpUoZQuU4G2cyZmCgOUmNS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571447430790553 | False | basic | public | 1719251041104 | kian_spire | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historical data shows that eight U.S. Presidents have died in office, with the last occurrence in 1963. But will there be more before the end of 2050? It doesn't matter how he or she dies, only if she does. So natural death and things like assassinations count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve YES if a president of the USA actually dies while serving a term before the end of 2050 and it resolves NO if it doesn't happen by then. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.042249419908983676} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.29268473465092, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | kian_spire | 1719421716430 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673711311777 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719421713372 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k3brtfo19p | what-will-happen-with-record-label | 7789.441072561407 | What will happen with record label lawsuits against Suno (AI music company) in 2024? Multiple options (not exclusive). | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.33844473801564 | False | plus | public | 1719251322010 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 24th 2024, major record labels (Sony, Universal, Warner) announced lawsuits against AI music startups Suno and Udio for copyright infringement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/major-record-labels-sue-ai-firms-suno-udio-copyright-infringement", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/major-record-labels-sue-ai-firms-suno-udio-copyright-infringement", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Major record labels ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sony Music", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/sony-music", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Universal Music Group", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/universal-music-group", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Warner Records", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/warner-records", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " have filed a landmark copyright infringement lawsuit against AI music generation companies ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Suno", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/suno", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Udio", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/udio", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The Recording Industry Association of America (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "RIAA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/org/riaa", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") alleges that these companies have used thousands of unlicensed songs from some of the world's biggest artists to train their AI systems. The lawsuit accuses Suno and Udio of committing mass copyright infringement by using the labels' recordings without permission. The case, filed in a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "US", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/loc/us", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " court, marks a significant moment for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/ai", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in the music industry, following previous legal actions against AI companies for similar issues. Udio was notably used to create the viral song 'BBL Drizzy'.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqYysQ9I6QF.png?alt=media&token=45f64fd9-125a-4c72-88e9-8a8f748a4f8f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will happen (in 2024) with respect to this legal action?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will Suno cease operations? Will it drastically change the product? 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4801edfkwl | how-much-will-inside-out-2-gross-at | 5291.521781663466 | How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? 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In just two weeks, the film has grossed $724 million globally, with $355 million from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "North America", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/loc/north-america", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and $285.7 million domestically. The sequel earned $100 million in its second weekend, setting a new record for an animated movie in its follow-up frame, making it the biggest second weekend for an animated film. It is also on track to be the first 2024 release to earn $1 billion at the worldwide box office. 'Inside Out 2' has outgrossed 'Kung Fu Panda 4' and is now the third highest-grossing film of 2024 globally. This achievement marks the 7th best second weekend ever.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F057ynkVE2o.png?alt=media&token=5596cb53-593b-4f2a-abe6-15bf938bb58a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pixar's animated film is \"on pace\" to gross over $1B, but how high will this number get -- before the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The highest grossing movie of all time is Avatar -- at $2.9B. And more recent movies to gross over $1B include Barbie and Supermario Brothers in 2023, as well as Top Gun Maverick in 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4ergIXgSHN.png?alt=media&token=393092b8-db9b-40d8-8083-c140ebf1292e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By comparison, Frozen \"only\" grossed $1.28B in 2013. So it seems that box office receipts have gone up since Covid -- be that inflation or a robust international market...", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Let's see where \"Inside Out 2\" shakes out. 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Milwaukee (from New Orleans)", "index": 22, "poolNo": 6.399672855667632, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23445.433357646012, "textFts": "'23':1 'milwauke':2 'new':4 'orlean':5", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00490262610761368, "week": -0.015283672502010582, "month": -0.015283672502010582}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00490262610761368, "probChangeWeek": -0.015283672502010582, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015283672502010582}, {"id": "8n26qboc11", "prob": 0.00026899087096798587, "text": "24 - New York (from Dallas)", "index": 23, "poolNo": 6.353824402081045, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23614.61286199989, "textFts": "'24':1 'dalla':5 'new':2 'york':3", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0046474623402161935, "week": -0.015341370708104098, "month": -0.015341370708104098}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0046474623402161935, "probChangeWeek": -0.015341370708104098, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015341370708104098}, {"id": "p0ifq6sm2q", "prob": 0.000268991317263803, "text": "25 - New York", "index": 24, "poolNo": 6.353829674466397, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23614.59326667779, "textFts": "'25':1 'new':2 'york':3", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00464751154803153, "week": -0.015341364199543434, "month": -0.015341364199543434}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00464751154803153, "probChangeWeek": -0.015341364199543434, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015341364199543434}, {"id": "d9hhx3rf53", "prob": 0.0002689917635818443, "text": "26 - Washington (from LA Clippers via Dallas and Oklahoma City)", "index": 25, "poolNo": 6.353834947110045, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23614.573670429116, "textFts": "'26':1 'citi':10 'clipper':5 'dalla':7 'la':4 'oklahoma':9 'via':6 'washington':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0046475607774585205, "week": -0.015341357690633377, "month": -0.015341357690633377}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0046475607774585205, "probChangeWeek": -0.015341357690633377, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015341357690633377}, {"id": "33g2p6q33g", "prob": 0.0002681363905086006, "text": "27 - Minnesota", "index": 26, "poolNo": 6.343721836608893, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23652.219834479387, "textFts": "'27':1 'minnesota':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.015942800016301405, "week": -0.01535378947981868, "month": -0.01535378947981868}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.015942800016301405, "probChangeWeek": -0.01535378947981868, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.01535378947981868}, {"id": "zvf6unbx0u", "prob": 0.0002747979586656115, "text": "28 - Denver", "index": 27, "poolNo": 6.422061351036064, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23363.698234377807, "textFts": "'28':1 'denver':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004560938632209873, "week": -0.0152546797850752, "month": -0.0152546797850752}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004560938632209873, "probChangeWeek": -0.0152546797850752, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.0152546797850752}, {"id": "oakkfunede", "prob": 0.00026326334290387816, "text": "29 - Utah (from Oklahoma City via Toronto and Indiana)", "index": 28, "poolNo": 6.285797551420728, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23870.1775265346, "textFts": "'29':1 'citi':5 'indiana':9 'oklahoma':4 'toronto':7 'utah':2 'via':6", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00968144565854591, "week": -0.015423013871957169, "month": -0.015423013871957169}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00968144565854591, "probChangeWeek": -0.015423013871957169, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015423013871957169}, {"id": "0z74467bgc", "prob": 0.00029339895520859413, "text": "30 - Boston", "index": 29, "poolNo": 6.635918152839622, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22610.752572960795, "textFts": "'30':1 'boston':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004254342749799101, "week": -0.01494797231608005, "month": -0.01494797231608005}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004254342749799101, "probChangeWeek": -0.01494797231608005, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.01494797231608005}, {"id": "wzuz6h2b6u", "prob": 0.00024924976357115346, "text": "31 - Toronto (from Detroit via New York and LA Clippers)", "index": 30, "poolNo": 6.116169706478104, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24532.200813419237, "textFts": "'31':1 'clipper':10 'detroit':4 'la':9 'new':6 'toronto':2 'via':5 'york':7", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.025346944282596495, "week": -0.015607754886133378, "month": -0.015607754886133378}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.025346944282596495, "probChangeWeek": -0.015607754886133378, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015607754886133378}, {"id": "lfrr7kk8fg", "prob": 0.00026005074984248217, "text": "32 - Utah (from Washington via Detroit and Brooklyn)", "index": 31, "poolNo": 6.247317110057338, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24017.20623509643, "textFts": "'32':1 'brooklyn':8 'detroit':6 'utah':2 'via':5 'washington':4", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005046271307303249, "week": -0.015467200430572328, "month": -0.015467200430572328}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.005046271307303249, "probChangeWeek": -0.015467200430572328, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.015467200430572328}, {"id": "rg57qkxb6w", "prob": 0.00029612625283543956, "text": "33 - Milwaukee (from Portland via Sacramento)", "index": 32, "poolNo": 6.6666980791660535, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22506.35947008974, "textFts": "'33':1 'milwauke':2 'portland':4 'sacramento':6 'via':5", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004478156319064052, "week": -0.014898969845502022, "month": -0.014898969845502022}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004478156319064052, "probChangeWeek": -0.014898969845502022, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.014898969845502022}, {"id": "sj4dhige9x", "prob": 0.00029612738056875433, "text": "34 - Portland (from Charlotte via Denver, Oklahoma City and New Orleans)", "index": 33, "poolNo": 6.666710777259141, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22506.31660219699, "textFts": "'34':1 'charlott':4 'citi':8 'denver':6 'new':10 'oklahoma':7 'orlean':11 'portland':2 'via':5", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004478251473961, "week": -0.014898949355693459, "month": -0.014898949355693459}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004478251473961, "probChangeWeek": -0.014898949355693459, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.014898949355693459}, {"id": "mf5yz3k25o", "prob": 0.00029612850874563676, "text": "35 - San Antonio", "index": 34, "poolNo": 6.6667234803226165, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22506.273717688346, "textFts": "'35':1 'antonio':3 'san':2", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004478346668489058, "week": -0.014898928857636311, "month": -0.014898928857636311}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004478346668489058, "probChangeWeek": -0.014898928857636311, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.014898928857636311}, {"id": "l2g3zsuxqj", "prob": 0.00029612963736650746, "text": "36 - Indiana (from Toronto via Philadelphia, LA Clippers and Memphis)", "index": 35, "poolNo": 6.666736188361028, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22506.230816547584, "textFts": "'36':1 'clipper':8 'indiana':2 'la':7 'memphi':10 'philadelphia':6 'toronto':4 'via':5", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004478441902675974, "week": -0.014898908351324208, "month": -0.014898908351324208}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.004478441902675974, "probChangeWeek": -0.014898908351324208, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.014898908351324208}, {"id": "3f83c3gcns", "prob": 0.0002975477373676486, "text": "37 - Minnesota (from Memphis via Los Angeles Lakers, Washington and Oklahoma City)", "index": 36, "poolNo": 6.6826846332151035, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22452.518962590235, "textFts": "'37':1 'angel':7 'citi':12 'laker':8 'los':6 'memphi':4 'minnesota':2 'oklahoma':11 'via':5 'washington':9", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05420501595013883, "week": -0.014872991770444773, "month": -0.014872991770444773}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05420501595013883, "probChangeWeek": -0.014872991770444773, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.014872991770444773}, {"id": "yz79avuvxn", "prob": 0.0002961307664311934, "text": "38 - New York (from Utah)", "index": 37, "poolNo": 6.666748901372557, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22506.187898782086, "textFts": "'38':1 'new':2 'utah':5 'york':3", "contractId": "nwlzdhnafx", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1719259821679, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0044785371765371776, "week": -0.0148988878367552, "month": -0.0148988878367552}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0044785371765371776, "probChangeWeek": -0.0148988878367552, "resolutionTime": 1719526533407, "totalLiquidity": 387.3539769361816, "probChangeMonth": -0.0148988878367552}, {"id": "izu99qaacb", "prob": 0.0002961318959402314, "text": "39 - 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0.5000000000000003 | ru2iuqhlza | {"NO": 587.2814648001547, "YES": 1702.7610437872188} | 0.25645002771691927 | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj | 2669.186316095876 | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? | 1798790340000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614863714572797 | False | basic | public | 1719269009832 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if an AI system is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "known ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(because of good evidence) to have ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "autonomously ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "taken ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "concrete steps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " to resist being shut down in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "real world", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " before the end of 2026. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2027.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this question using my best judgement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves using the same considerations as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the 2024 version", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " of this question found here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credit to ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "EzsnDabZsZTcpcD1UmChzRUn9Bk1", "label": "PeterWildeford"}}, {"text": " for coming up with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this question originally", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/PeterWildeford/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also the 2025 version:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-q7074phhpu", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.24354997228308073} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.08456157195197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719420927876 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719420924803 | 1719337915005 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 9v3c4ic039 | {"NO": 204.1241452319315, "YES": 4898.979485566357} | 1 | will-i-promote-to-diamond-this-seas-5wyneh2myw | 5538.3703475303355 | Will I promote to Diamond this season? | 1719849540000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894234618461553 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719269864149 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 5th place, 25 mana ahead of 6th place, when writing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I don't spend much time on Manifold nowadays.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3796636676689429, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.29491971191017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719885379487 | 1000 | bohaska | 1719916124342 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719848795297 | 1719916123567 | 0.04 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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nnvwk9uwc5 | is-colorado-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Colorado in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276366352 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276366382 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["iydiwvukab"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vpwldaalm9 | is-illinois-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Illinois in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276440807 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276440837 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["82z4qff2ot"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tpu07yjn9w | is-indiana-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Indiana in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276482847 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276482875 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["nytfz2tvq9"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6lakqcaemj | is-iowa-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Iowa in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276517286 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276517321 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["ex5at5a7t6"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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uolzak3vqu | is-kentucky-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Kentucky in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719276752008 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719276752039 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["ekhvlom2aw"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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p7y6rcv9nz | is-pure-effective-altruism-moral | 0 | Is pure effective altruism moral? | oigmP5QCNyV1PO3bBdDxkxwpQxB2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719278769885 | Alon Ragoler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As in, money should be distributed precisely according to counterfactual impact and no other causes should receive this (despite concerns such as justice, corruption, and equity)", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AlonRagoler | 1719278769885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpfo1fYA8-tasZ4QczW0qEvjON_jEY1H9XrftbvZRtnjFwLN4_=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714877266677 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6gfwlvjt82 | is-ohio-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Ohio in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278844928 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278844964 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["o9qfwvr5sb"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g2dqykimzb | is-oklahoma-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Oklahoma in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719278892459 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719278892496 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["b1i9bqklnw"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97ndtu1rpo | is-pennsylvania-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Pennsylvania in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279342038 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | MarkHamill | 1719279342085 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["zkmxf2qk2a"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jdiw8z0kfh | is-south-dakota-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is South Dakota in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279373318 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279373443 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["1su6z322f8"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k8vh5nhtyx | is-tennessee-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Tennessee in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279412352 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541876 | MarkHamill | 1719279412381 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["2dmz34rtsm"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wy26q8a8vs | is-west-virginia-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is West Virginia in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279442982 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279443013 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["g6w6hxh9yp"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d0uuqhhh96 | is-wisconsin-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Wisconsin in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279476817 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279476852 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["btvn40ax48"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nyawk5uqts | is-wyoming-in-the-midwest | 0 | Is Wyoming in the Midwest? | 1719903540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719279515779 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“In the midwest” means having a majority or entirety of the state (whether by landmass or population - up to you) in the midwest, as opposed to the northeast, south, or west coast.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | MarkHamill | 1719279515807 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | 0.25 | ["fi4p49t6cz"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 5l9nbvx2on | {"NO": 456.4032967379335, "YES": 2191.044646581941} | 0.17239368120137943 | will-an-openly-gay-man-become-presi | 2441.8690920838653 | Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president? | 2305436340000 | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.633920809876109 | False | basic | public | 1719282693547 | JKS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met or the office of President of the United States is abolished.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For purposes of this market, \"openly gay man\" and \"woman\" describe someone who identifies as a such at the time of the respective event. If an individual became President of the United States and then only later identified as an \"openly gay man\" or \"woman\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " leaving the Presidency, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to regain the presidency).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3JP6V4mZY0pGQhq6xzCL", "label": "/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-mars-before-a"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.018552579847209788, "month": -0.32760631879862057} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.16266954941166, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jks | 1719959817046 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680049506454 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719959813731 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9uu39axlrv | {"NO": 1952.6293937851333, "YES": 512.1299531712566} | 1 | will-elon-musk-criticize-joe-biden | 2210.4451077370254 | Will Elon Musk criticize Joe Biden on Twitter during or within a day after the first debate? | 1719536340000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641220390770297 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719284193558 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be very broadly defined—e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "criticizing the \"Biden administration\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1803591223753822600", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", calling him a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"puppet\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1767112607830327473", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", claiming something he said was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "false", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1766102860524138941", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", saying that he's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "unlikely to vote for Biden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1749153547382374411", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", or criticizing just his performance in within the debate, would all easily count. Basically anything negatively-coded that's at all specific to Biden would count. Praising Donald Trump (without any direct mention of Biden) would not count. Criticizing “Democrats” or their policies in general would not count, unless there is clear reason and unambiguous reason to think it’s focused on Biden (e.g. if it’s a rebuttal to a clip from the debate, then we can see it’s directly about Biden, even if his language is about Democrats).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close before the first debate. Any tweet posted within 24 hours after the start of the debate counts for this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.20778091532695098, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.15473958525366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719702205576 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719536340000 | 0 | 36 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719512801617 | 1719698153131 | 0.79 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 |
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