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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.14 | y6htk8qlv8 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo | 0 | Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719284285911 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719284285948 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 64gdi0vmdv | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo-rgagjv6d7u | 0 | Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719284286432 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719284286458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | 6mmjztmt0p | {"NO": 758.6612681072784, "YES": 13.181113127006142} | 1 | will-bronny-james-lebron-james-jr-b | 749.4465832385403 | Will Bronny James (LeBron James Jr.) be drafted at the 55th pick by the Los Angeles Lakers? | 1719526340083 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719284328186 | Chinmay The Math Guy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only resolves to yes if Bronny is taken at the exact pick #55 to the Los Angeles Lakers (i.e. no trade ups or at 55 by another team)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.146812935358029, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719526340083 | 100 | ChinmayTheMathGuy | 1719526340083 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | 8 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677787177859 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719526102750 | 0.98 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dmtvmmvhf6 | when-will-most-end-users-of-synapse | 1127 | When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds? | 1830326340000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1.092040176097314 | False | premium | public | 1719284337177 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "class": "break-anywhere... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.60558924653531, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100000 | JonathanRay | 1720095619946 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e3rwum06lz", "prob": 0.32220082744821654, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22385.79558270222, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47091.97627776894, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 5.206075307467861e... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720095616320 | 1720031542471 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | mn8uvoeyvm | {"NO": 970.8772359143396, "YES": 1029.996340431483} | 0.48522667668361313 | will-anthropic-add-voice-support-to | 2357.4144392090116 | Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24) | 1727733540000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.7220146021489775 | False | basic | public | 1719287034537 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like Claude 3 and would commit exclusively to it if Anthropic added voice support like the one chatgpt has. If it happens before October 2024, I will resolve the market as yes. Slow and partial rollouts count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para... | BINARY | {"day": -0.024018170150715556, "week": -0.024018170150715556, "month": -0.014773323316386866} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.91935980430631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | Soli | 1720167619729 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720167616669 | 1719379431743 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7g257bprnb | how-do-you-rate-manifolds-leadershi | 0 | How do you rate Manifold's leadership and direction for Q2 2024? [POLL INDEX] | 1720670340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719287999114 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "24mQqMb8htfXdywFa9n3", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719475604487 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719475603162 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8v92xsd9pr | how-much-will-despicable-me-4-2024-edv7je2umy | 3989.803391581485 | How much will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1720205940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719288372740 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Despicable Me 4\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.817271902574255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1010.9317729264551 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720194418904 | 0 | 14 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "gn49sa3d0i", "prob": 0.9829536681264905, "text": ">$56 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1898.4145894316755, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.92220800868927, "textFts": "'56':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720194415806 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | d3igquix1f | {"NO": 1047.2251548614176, "YES": 753.1764629251695} | 0.18456947444460733 | will-sae-feature-geometry-is-outsid | 50 | Will "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.867769582210448 | False | public | 1719288685000 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04456947444460732} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.774845138582333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719391773319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719391770229 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xyo1l90sgo | which-canadian-nhl-team-will-win-th | 483.0553150082214 | Which Canadian NHL team will win the Stanley Cup next? | 4891467540000 | WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719289734530 | constantine+- | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The legend continues. Will it ever end? Who will end it?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.390777033828392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | constantine | 1719788828893 | 0 | 5 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "576xqxpczy", "prob": 0.08006369011562099, "text": "Calgary Flames", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.75192988173143, "userId": "WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 640.5928151733535, "textFts": "'calgari':1 'flame':2", "contractId": "xyo1l90sgo", "createdTime": 1719289734530, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680629538480 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719788825703 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | dume7pk1i2 | {"NO": 1284.413109802737, "YES": 778.565706288675} | 0.6226012113087174 | will-dragon-make-a-move-during-elba | 466 | Will dragon make a move during elbaf? | 1721966340000 | ahFJCyJUKbN8j1dlXP1qMOjxY9D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580086564303285 | False | basic | public | 1719290589485 | JT | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Moneky D. Dragon make a move on the world government during the elbaf arc?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.029806345289005498, "month": 0.12260121130871737} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.521536516420129, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JT7otmw | 1719773332626 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719290105382 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719773329530 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | th3kd7ydpu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-sssb-relationship-result-i | 110.61722620214888 | Will the SSSB relationship result in a breakup before 1/1/2025? | 1735718340000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719290914540 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you don't know me, this is your average high school cis-het relationship. These two have been together for somewhere in the ballpark of 1-2 months. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This mar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.67423121929301, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | stardust2 | 1719425867969 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 4 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425864911 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000019 | h3zr6f4bg5 | {"NO": 4234.707251014689, "YES": 236.1438325542784} | 0.9471814587110405 | will-assange-survive-the-next-six-m | 6096.390281874888 | Will Assange survive the next six months? | 1735685940000 | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.904985290728838 | False | basic | public | 1719292036797 | Schwabilismus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Surprisingly Julian Assange is free! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.44718145871104054} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.9628255317599, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Schwabilismus | 1719421275863 | 0 | 32 | 15 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681912243026 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719421272584 | 1719292693069 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
py0ul0f3ql | who-will-win-between-south-africa-a | 0 | Who will win between South Africa and Afghanistan in the T20 world cup semi final? | 1719611940000 | BA6lDWuWsresZahapq9NxZPIkoA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719292474383 | Arnold de Wit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South Africa is playing Afghanistan in the 2024 ICC T20 world cup semi final. Who wil win?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719611943494 | ArnolddeWit | 1719292474457 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMxIIAJOdfUjbbipCXtlijUNeuq_PzP4VUYPCoV3wy_t1YfyU=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718051425811 | 0 | 0.25 | ["fx38u6f9ev"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aa25n3t92w | we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse | 0 | We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it? | 1719903540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719293229441 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New users & many returning users seemed to prefer the denser search page as opposed to the feed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We made the browse/search the default now, and the feed page is... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | JamesGrugett | 1719898632470 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719898631455 | ["iurypvnxv9"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | iznfavshlj | {"NO": 334.75325411319494, "YES": 29.87274918802904} | 0.9180729050655484 | will-julian-assange-be-alive-one-ye | 401 | Will Julian Assange be alive one year after being freed? | 1753502340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719294574136 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4180729050655484} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.722723832313005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719396844389 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719396841321 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | q6lvhulhut | {"NO": 100.77011617168085, "YES": 99.23576929258587} | 0.5038357543217624 | ilya-sutskever-become-a-father-by-2 | 22 | Ilya sutskever become a father by 2032? | 1988168340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719294832965 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003835754321762419} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7415456648465094, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719301758647 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719301755547 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 50pfldulbx | {"NO": 117.25193369992445, "YES": 85.28643992850793} | 0.5789121913017308 | will-claude-35-haiku-release-before-svx52wz072 | 30 | Will Claude 3.5 Haiku release before the end of August? | 1725163140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719295282184 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.027959449721575713, "month": 0.07891219130173077} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9536052212858663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719732373707 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719732370646 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | p5q370svf6 | {"NO": 21.43884122160088, "YES": 466.4431205322994} | 0.04394268061178113 | will-claude-35-haiku-release-before-2opulvr1sf | 399.07177594849514 | Will Claude 3.5 Haiku release before the end of 7/7? | 1720411140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719295327168 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.02523136473687835, "week": -0.2526531429564363, "month": -0.45605731938821886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.869607166998159, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 100 | strutheo | 1720218172502 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720218169377 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | v8leak30tv | {"NO": 85.28719748093843, "YES": 117.25089222488504} | 1 | will-i-clean-my-home-for-at-least-3 | 30 | Will I clean my home for at least 30 minutes a day until and including Sunday? | 1719784740000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719297330227 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My 60-minutes per week market isn't cutting it at the moment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.606867158348557, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9547710222997133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719814499329 | 100 | redcat | 1719784740000 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719745331231 | 0.42 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c7un3xdrxs | what-countries-will-be-newly-classi | 575 | What countries will be newly classified as full democracies by the EIU in the 2024 report? | 1740783540000 | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719299984676 | Alex B. Goode | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question pertains to the classification of countries according to the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Democracy Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eiu.com/n/campa... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.148665996087788, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AlexbGoode | 1719323625925 | 0 | 3 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "720gd35urw", "prob": 0.31161262424555897, "text": "Chile", "index": 0, "poolNo": 134.5615772174507, "userId": "dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 297.2616762313975, "textFts": "'chile':1", "contractId": "c7un3xdrxs", "createdTime": 1719299984676, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1883873757544... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679667494995 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719323622868 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | av5yv360gn | {"NO": 1019.9466013573963, "YES": 885.7477161717475} | 0.15786280881495277 | will-sapirwhorf-for-rationalists-ma | 80 | Will "Sapir-Whorf for Rationalists" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.882231240537099 | False | public | 1719300839182 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.016939825025804295, "month": 0.017862808814952752} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1903847242671763, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719704992752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719704989675 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | i37agzqvba | {"NO": 13.251119466373567, "YES": 754.6532219693801} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-70000-before-june | 988.213597210149 | Will Bitcoin hit $70,000 before June 30? | 1719788340000 | lYMqH4vS4QUpQrIQttMQGbis4is2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719301132873 | Courage Afemije | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market dip is upon us. But will Bitcoin retrace back to $70,000?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0482192638853133, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.939602308193137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720035419934 | 100 | CourageAfemije | 1719788340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL5aVxROCHO1lAQgB1QxNUhg12O1Q-n4NHqY6CvbVpHoRXuhw0=s96-c | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714505098220 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719776582204 | 1720031727324 | 0.02 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | oi7wtf3b4m | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066178} | 0 | will-anyone-at-the-june-27th-debate | 1174.9021300283512 | Will anyone at the June 27th debate say "fuck," or any variant of it? | 1719652792354 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719301259383 | Destiny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this happens, the market will resolve yes. If it does not happen or the debate does not happen, this will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.018667123617371648, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.238060360635086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719652792354 | 100 | Destiny3a152 | 1719652792354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714885629354 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719652751897 | 0.01 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | lut356hgas | {"NO": 50.08041790292533, "YES": 199.67884492065872} | 0.20051475703745697 | will-i-ever-beat-philinesgrosserbru | 102 | Will I ever beat @philinesgrosserbruder twice in a row in chess again? | 1769821140000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719301934930 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My colleague ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "rKERNYnck1W24L2kz3jafeaNQcC2", "label": "philinesgrosserbruder"}}, {"text": " is very bad at chess, but I'm even worse. He has been practicing regularly at chess.com for some tim... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.29948524296254303} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3211550793412825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719477824884 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719475640985 | 1719477822908 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | d69sh8g863 | {"NO": 67.27469601303663, "YES": 148.64429856453268} | 0.3115737739732206 | will-the-memecoin-slerf-reach-1b-ma | 50 | Will the memecoin $Slerf reach 1B Market cap by the end of 2024 | 1735660740000 | NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719302547879 | Yu Matthew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resloved yes immediately if the marketcap of slerf reaches 1 billion USD on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/slerf/.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1884262260267794} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3557014354673005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | YuMatthew | 1719342569384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcv7-YdT2KrY1LeMjA_TiGixe1Z2noF3pqHIssxSojg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691211556648 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719342566303 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lzdrs5vfvm | do-you-bet-to-earn-mana-in-long-ter | 0 | Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets? | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719303192558 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Loans have been removed for a while. How does this change betting on long term markets? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A long term market is a market resolving in 2026 or later. ", "type": "... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | nikki | 1719305659351 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719305658313 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | cwmcf1zpgn | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-llm-generality-is-a-timeline-c | 50 | Will "LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | public | 1719304746615 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719312955123 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719312951931 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2ect3zato0 | {"NO": 617.5049023684134, "YES": 16.194203417082917} | 1 | will-bill-ackman-endorse-trump | 547.3221663538134 | Will Bill Ackman endorse Trump? | 1719595644125 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719308111815 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ackman has supported Trump and RFK Jr on some issues and previously donated to Democrat Dean Phillips. Forbes says he is “widely expected to endorse Trump after previously backing Kennedy” but their confidence doesn’t seem justified.", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.172931277773216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719595644125 | 100 | CharlieBauer | 1719595644125 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719595622579 | 0.97 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | vo4lts2216 | {"NO": 730.7406680469528, "YES": 1368.4745405954964} | 0.34810183588538274 | will-julian-assange-be-guest-of-the | 874 | Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024? | 1735685940000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585676980807234 | False | basic | public | 1719309321589 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of Assange must be longer than 10 minutes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.008940626736778534, "week": 0.060552611617286145, "month": -0.15189816411461726} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.830611674559393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 15 | 1000 | itsTomekK | 1720226693372 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1658666303973 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720226690080 | 1719330102123 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xlg4u6fn9l | {"NO": 2818.543326122181, "YES": 354.7931978664396} | 1 | will-boston-bruins-trade-jake-debru | 1850 | Will Boston Bruins trade Jake DeBrusk by start of '24-'25 season? | 1719856046969 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.744710027750113 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719312985000 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3577483984107842, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.45667387781909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719856046969 | 1000 | Bruce54df | 1719856046969 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719856026557 | 0.89 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | toouubbjmj | {"NO": 134.49427781864503, "YES": 74.35260564381949} | 0.6439850841385303 | will-we-get-asi-before-2036 | 190 | Will we get ASI before 2036? | 2088370740000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719313094525 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Arti... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.11800290449803819, "month": 0.14398508413853028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.216391402000554, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719658647362 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719658644027 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | xozm2i9egd | {"NO": 86.3964327293786, "YES": 115.74551962490418} | 0.42740476048216086 | will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-bqwj84nn7p | 105.05549805511627 | Will we get cryopreservation before 2042? | 2277673140000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719313401769 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2042.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.17740476048216086, "month": -0.07259523951783914} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.189011487812524, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719658638385 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719658634842 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kxq3b5di6y | {"NO": 77.68137576229327, "YES": 128.73098476783193} | 0.3763407170131943 | will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-zd8a508550 | 105 | Will we get fusion drives before 2047? | 2435439540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719313661324 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2047, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.03599708180940092, "month": -0.12365928298680567} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4053043926669897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768230687 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768227619 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 010qqw8019 | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | if-trump-wins-will-the-us-use-more | 50 | If Trump wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028? | 1861981140000 | HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1719313662862 | Samuel Knoche | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Trump is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The mos... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelKnoche | 1719313900930 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689882283507 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719313862089 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kks1xvp2wr | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | if-biden-wins-will-the-us-use-more | 0 | If Biden wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028? | 1861981140000 | HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719313708925 | Samuel Knoche | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Biden is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The mos... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelKnoche | 1719313964897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689882283507 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2ba41c5wd9 | united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204 | 4676.01901316591 | United nations - will it stand by 2040? | 2209071540000 | TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719314216798 | ed | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are other feasible trajectories feel free to add them. If there are duplicates or some other non logical offered options, i reserve the right to remove them or to resolve them to NA", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.23080937487653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | 3d | 1719826708689 | 0 | 21 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "exumqasmm3", "prob": 0.8810366920753878, "text": "Remains without any contender organization", "index": 0, "poolNo": 680.3470258341487, "userId": "TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.86488310633987, "textFts": "'contend':4 'organ':5 'remain':1 'without':2", "contractId": "2ba41c5wd9"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709499486885 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719820637919 | 1719418235743 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | b0022qd3as | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-the-smb1-any-ntsc-world-record | 0 | Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040? | 2209093140000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719317098739 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1719317098779 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999933 | m0xokegumb | {"NO": 1850.5777652242652, "YES": 540.3717794473887} | 0.7739928135867048 | will-we-have-agi-before-a-mars-colo | 3282.4065383832344 | Will we have AGI before a Mars colony? | 2556104340000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.939597638380135 | False | basic | public | 1719324883920 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever is first:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": -0.027308761525611014, "week": -0.027308761525611014, "month": 0.2739928135867048} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.79020833182837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 155.25463439618332 | 1000 | Daniel_MC | 1720218451650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678868464369 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720218448365 | 1719607576667 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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d9cmvtcm4o | who-would-manifold-want-as-trumps-v | 0 | Who would Manifold want as Trump's VP? [poll, read description] | 1721969940000 | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719339122870 | Zane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote for whoever you would most want as vice president out of these options (everyone who's currently above 1% at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Stralor/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445", "type": "text", "mark... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ZaneMiller | 1719356114841 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669859805273 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719356113518 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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rvwr82qr1x | which-countries-will-legalize-homos | 1982.0320157815431 | Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries) | 1922504340000 | QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719339792706 | Joshua Bartlett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.15435961780893, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | JoshuaBartlett | 1719434566481 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLrHZK1BMnH4TIzVLpAvx9iyt35hQENFarO6Vwk0Zyj=s96-c | 23 | 23 | ANYONE | [{"id": "iec9sffp9a", "prob": 0.07609867881514662, "text": "Egypt", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.83265791493754, "userId": "QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 580.7282929411103, "textFts": "'egypt':1", "contractId": "rvwr82qr1x", "createdTime": 1719339792706, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0234659411635... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695348085515 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719407471088 | 1719434564907 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
spsmzjkqxz | what-election-related-stock-will-in | 2709.211229988827 | What election related stock will increase the most in the lead up to Nov 5, 2024 vote. | 1730869140000 | JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719339838863 | Brooker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy the rumor, sell the news! In the lead up to the 2024 presidential election the stock market will start pricing in a winner. The higher the likelihood a candidate will win the more the stock that benefits from their winning will pump into the el... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.159584869466634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Brooker | 1719421898704 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCUyBeLE3uL8Bz12FsMymyGe0BrshjUrV_Vjt2TCt8v81jsuM=s96-c | 16 | 16 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "lvha6j44s1", "prob": 0.11913645890062881, "text": "Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT $36)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.77629938613248, "userId": "JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 271.91425366117124, "textFts": "'36':6 'djt':5 'group':4 'media':2 'technolog':3 'trump':1", "contractId"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715715054189 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719421895649 | 1719404563770 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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krvvpuirf1 | who-will-be-the-most-cited-ml-resea | 1267.8393795050297 | Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040? | 2240607540000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719342604102 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving based on Google Scholar ranking e.g. for now it looks like this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&hl=en&mauthors=label:machine_learning", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.63612983521016, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1720195727652 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 19 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ks261z8k0g", "prob": 0.1560715833877404, "text": "Geoffrey Hinton", "index": 0, "poolNo": 107.51006429334629, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 581.3409229248132, "textFts": "'geoffrey':1 'hinton':2", "contractId": "krvvpuirf1", "createdTime": 1719342604103, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720195723873 | 1719424202222 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1esu71rw1m | who-will-win-ballon-dor-in-2030 | 87 | Who will win Ballon d'Or in 2030? | 1924988340000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719342776658 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new options", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.508968543586776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719934500274 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 3 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bzb4xf7yry", "prob": 0.16171868689477983, "text": "Erling Haaland", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.80578456531626, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 569.1867714202513, "textFts": "'erl':1 'haaland':2", "contractId": "1esu71rw1m", "createdTime": 1719342776658, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719934495966 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u4oabtgl2y | which-team-will-win-the-2030-fifa-w | 526 | Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 1924988340000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719342909815 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.842489915228422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1720133682019 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 10 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6ac1fkr1ed", "prob": 0.06652871601692338, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.98360459116978, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 953.8849757956261, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "u4oabtgl2y", "createdTime": 1719342909816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720133678905 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qviq429rhm | who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-t | 1210.358328650652 | Who will be the top goalscorer at the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 1924988340000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719343039400 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new options", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.353287668558659, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719447227902 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 10 | 9 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7jioeii9jg", "prob": 0.04191340094656569, "text": "Kylian Mbappe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 52.28945036231826, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1195.2697832341328, "textFts": "'kylian':1 'mbapp':2", "contractId": "qviq429rhm", "createdTime": 1719343039400, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719447224496 | 1719407325612 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1nxa46kwiq | google-event-august-13-prop-bets | 4309.61945667502 | Google Event (August 13) - Prop bets | 1723607940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719343252679 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1805644943731589158"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 79.1426942899637, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | Bayesian | 1719800074544 | 0 | 39 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ss4wcyht4v", "prob": 0.8799999999999975, "text": "A new version of Gemini is announced", "index": 0, "poolNo": 300.8903112828098, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.03049699311142, "textFts": "'announc':7 'gemini':5 'new':2 'version':3", "contractId": "1nxa46kwiq", "creat... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719800071474 | 1719430957585 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v9qmefyvbf | how-many-times-will-538s-election-m | 5039.690734636165 | How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election? | 1730869140000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719343678644 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question concerns ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538's election forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 99.88853570596122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | burkh4rt | 1720061682458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 41 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7jci621k8y", "prob": 0.11890322632692996, "text": "0 times", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.83855093885408, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 680.5420965495473, "textFts": "'0':1 'time':2", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720061679386 | 1719522040041 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sd7hwkc0i5 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay-tk6p7j355a | 400 | To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾 | 1723442400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719344247105 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.897315505011942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719937261691 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5l4kn1mmdz", "prob": 0.0717240943077831, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 62.155419164067695, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 804.4350866336881, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07747294244273427, "w... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719937257899 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bgp4fn4gdb | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-coc-zg0ae4pfin | 5 | To which is the last round that Coco Gauff will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾 | 1723442400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719344316223 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22860123179197464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719544293846 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ltylay5x0x", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719544289835 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | h21yoxpegf | {"NO": 498.68080372801563, "YES": 2005.2907441478496} | 0.19915593855331531 | will-the-team-that-is-the-2025-nhl | 1028 | Will the team that is the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup winner be a first-time champion? | 1751345940000 | 4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.647088592702389 | False | basic | public | 1719344648615 | Spongpad | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following this year’s wild Stanley Cup final which saw the Florida Panthers hoist the trophy for the first time, I’m building a question to fulfill if any of the following active franchises win next year’s Stanley Cup:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.1073959521509999, "month": -0.3008440614466847} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.709255852150108, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LBeesley | 1719788522002 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681923448038 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719788518956 | 1719415231974 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jxk5ut30nh | queen-anna-van-der-breggen-unretire | 116 | Queen Anna van der Breggen Unretires Mega Market - Which races will she win before she re-retires? | 1893538740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719345945317 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These questions will either be resolved if van der Breggen 🧡 wins a race or if she re-retires (announces it and does not have a contract on January 1st).", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9037898733349135, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Lion | 1719349028332 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 3 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "or70mxpob9", "prob": 0.3795637696962439, "text": "Fleche Wallonne (Mur de Huy)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.821567550142246, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.785160948738632, "textFts": "'de':4 'flech':1 'huy':5 'mur':3 'wallonn':2", "contractId": "jxk5ut30nh", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719348936400 | 1719349026887 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ean2rep51a | {"NO": 118.26333930218014, "YES": 8455.705765629154} | 0 | will-joe-biden-fall-during-the-pres | 44265.20016117054 | Will Joe Biden Fall During the Presidential Debate? | 1719542579115 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.85894489756933 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719346185984 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "President Biden is notorious for falling, sleeping, or getting lost...", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 318.45135868378503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719542579115 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719542579115 | 0 | 150 | 17 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719542207805 | 1719480430581 | 0.01 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o6ncu0ei21 | how-will-mexico-perform-in-copa-ame | 9853.659702479146 | How will Mexico perform in Copa America? | 1719799173336 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | xt8n7ujecq | public | 1719347022044 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.611875456445887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719799173336 | 100 | 10thOfficial | 1719799173336 | 0 | 17 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "xt8n7ujecq", "prob": 0.9796363503582144, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 173.39822453813065, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.604419835698234, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "o6ncu0ei21", "resolverId": "sTUV8ejuM2byu... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719799152245 | {"xt8n7ujecq": 100} | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73muasxcc9 | what-will-be-the-primary-cause-of-a | 3849.1700223818075 | What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? | 1893538740000 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719347096589 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown. Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.46211896982122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719799283448 | 0 | 27 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1406xmeg56", "prob": 0.23123927995055807, "text": "AI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.40794835852324, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 303.8879908870385, "textFts": "'ai':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.26876072... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719799280344 | 1719514242109 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 9y1gxuntth | {"NO": 335.02667852887726, "YES": 2984.8369222148544} | 0.10091579619530841 | will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025 | 6424.128362574639 | Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025? | 1751432340000 | lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.529399040732146 | False | basic | public | 1719347314275 | Lorec | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to my subjective judgment. I am open to argument.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.39908420380469156} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 98.15266707810399, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorec | 1719605056444 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687730069422 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719605053369 | 1719354266070 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | i6peb3y6s2 | {"NO": 554.6169060846964, "YES": 1803.0463713403078} | 0.2352400834314385 | will-at-least-3-of-the-10-technolog | 950 | Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years? | 1862027940000 | lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62510551711026 | False | basic | public | 1719347402312 | Lorec | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:und... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.26475991656856146} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.731965121557298, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorec | 1719425456490 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687730069422 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425453415 | 1719420995963 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999983 | iv3jf5volh | {"NO": 213.43747458109408, "YES": 46.85212856658203} | 0.8199999999999986 | will-deadpool-wolverine-july-26-202 | 439.0209820412124 | Will Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26, 2024) open to over $150 million domestically in its opening weekend? 🇺🇸 | 1722250740000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719355695473 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoratio... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.3199999999999986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.5703797689188495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoaoDavid | 1719835690554 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719835687439 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | l5qmwom6uu | {"NO": 952.1240744160484, "YES": 1050.2832843642932} | 0 | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-b43800qbdr | 52 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 170 and 171? | 1719944222926 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570707025495473 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719356890623 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4764098414564849, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7167156357069282, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719944226879 | 1000 | dwax | 1719944222926 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719938146191 | 0.48 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | v2k3ztz5ly | {"NO": 1008.2337201653769, "YES": 950.8761294994506} | 0.14720180344271874 | will-formal-verification-heuristic | 17 | Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.889259095791598 | False | public | 1719358063822 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007201803442718729} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6369316318538493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719490806466 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719490803136 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qkgqe5x7o1 | {"NO": 10.178470527077991, "YES": 982.4658796620558} | 0 | will-trump-skip-thursdays-president | 2958.6797365130865 | Will Trump skip Thursday’s presidential debate? | 1719537335093 | eHfG65u3ewQyO8wq2KpYfrTnR9y1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719361159738 | tc | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.38343221260961, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719537335093 | 100 | Ciszek | 1719537335093 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717868631991 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719536583984 | 0.01 | eHfG65u3ewQyO8wq2KpYfrTnR9y1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | t7nckwdc29 | {"NO": 108.54308019697146, "YES": 92.12931844068875} | 0.540896909260351 | would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft | 20 | Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful? | 1735649940000 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719362357591 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where successful means: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20+ people as active users for 2 months", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.040896909260351055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6602295454197525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | keltan | 1719409434746 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719409431672 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vrvp4cd6do | would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft-sl2qi41joo | 0 | Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful? | 1735649940000 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719362462536 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where successful means: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20+ people as active users for 2 months", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"t... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | keltan | 1719362462623 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aymuc4kd12 | what-will-happen-with-the-recent-la | 897.2616762313975 | What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups? | 1767254340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719362580551 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some labels, including Sony, Universal, and Warner, have started lawsuits against Udio and Suno.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/arts/music/record-labels-ai-lawsuit-sony-universal-w... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.65687036602213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | Stralor | 1719447571719 | 0 | 4 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3qluudw47z", "prob": 0.6883873757544411, "text": "Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily", "index": 0, "poolNo": 148.63083811569874, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.28078860872532, "textFts": "'servic':6 'shutdown':5 'suno':3 'temporarili':7 'udio':1", "contra... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719447568553 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | w1ssli39ws | {"NO": 1098.9304626378225, "YES": 909.975684539353} | 0.5470292697257112 | -2024-ncaaf-will-texas-defeat-michi | 200 | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Texas defeat Michigan? | 1725732000000 | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571715463210952 | False | basic | public | 1719363486278 | JKS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: Saturday, September 7, 2024 - 10:00 AM EDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, Michigan", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0470292697257112, "month": 0.0470292697257112} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.603704976775171, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jks | 1719867784972 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680049506454 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719867780381 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | w7keasvydk | {"NO": 78.1669899422616, "YES": 127.93124063478136} | 0.37927055328619846 | will-barack-obama-have-at-least-1-o | 216.59814336780192 | Will Barack Obama have at least 1 of Kendrick Lamar's diss tracks against Drake on his Favourite Music of 2024 playlist | 1736657940000 | wWe19tgyZQeK8en8FaEAiiQlu693 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719364057462 | Glimpse of an Uchiha | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.02927055328619843, "week": 0.17986202909753551, "month": -0.12072944671380154} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.6713736011066365, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5 | 100 | ItachisEyes | 1720171659699 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668212577494 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720171656143 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6bqwmcr4qz | {"NO": 913.7048650541797, "YES": 1094.445305312786} | 0.45499827579488794 | will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru | 225 | Will Lincoln appear in Biden vs Trump epic rap battles of History 2024 | 1729897140000 | EpITnFh5oeNb4OgEtquAgc3pqF72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571598181836105 | False | basic | public | 1719365124622 | Dave793 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Abraham Lincoln makes an appearance in the presidential epic rap battle 2024 just as he did in the 2012 and 2016 battles it will be resolved as yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02251799141245131, "month": -0.04500172420511206} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.4625664881174965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Dave793 | 1719653391347 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684898947005 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719653387860 | 1719572763822 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | p3ureomfbb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | mang0-stocks | 0 | Mang0 stocks | 1735718340000 | Bt3D7JBUmZRMSeA19Zxa8YI2ZM53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719365250758 | Edwin Meza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The stocks from the GOAT himself ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | EdwinMeza | 1719365250785 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2xUO00dMTzqQqFVpWY4CsTxMWFWAlAI_71dA3oy2xI5VP5hiL=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719238307004 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ly7tsdpvhd | {"NO": 11410.976357036867, "YES": 8763.491998503043} | 0.5656147243108597 | will-winner-match-49-beat-winner-ma | 1480 | Will [Winner Match 49] beat [Winner Match 50]? ⚽|🏆 Euro 2024 Final | 1721015940000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.734555891114829 | False | plus | public | 1719365412208 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner after regular time, and if applicable, extra-time and penalty shoot-out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FC... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0005395765264716301, "week": 0.06561472431085968, "month": 0.06561472431085968} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.86600355809216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 10000 | 10thOfficial | 1720200583442 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200580366 | 1720036748384 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18cbshvbk3 | on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born | 150 | (N/A) On what day will our baby be born? | 1719365733572 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | plus | MKT | public | 1719365580422 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rachel's due date is July 1st; here you can ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gamble", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " predict exactly which day our baby will come out! Resolves to the day, in Pacific Time, when she decides t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0953897483175146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719365733572 | 10000 | Austin | 1719365790790 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "v4s1wpih07", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Jun 26", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.11111111111111, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 111.11111111111111, "contractId": "18cbshvbk3", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "createdTime": 1719365580422, "prob... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719365595482 | 1719365742089 | 0.5 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
suqx2ukd3n | on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu | 322104.92861123965 | On what day will our baby be born? | 1720421940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.796482153300232 | False | plus | public | 1719365805663 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rachel's due date is July 1st; here you can ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gamble", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " predict exactly which day our baby will come out! Resolves to the day, in Pacific Time, when she decides t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1490.5028053046983, "platformFee": 437.59689212426076, "liquidityFee": 0} | 71135.31305835774 | 19000 | Austin | 1720248170597 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 57 | 32 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "h4efdtf49u", "prob": 0.0011372137530270097, "text": "Jun 26", "index": 0, "poolNo": 45.36516146874602, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39846.13399424763, "textFts": "'26':2 'jun':1", "contractId": "suqx2ukd3n", "createdTime": 1719365805663, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00171... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720248167268 | 1720237106463 | True | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | bczq099bmu | {"NO": 977.3712143748709, "YES": 1023.152703182079} | 0.4885576252287159 | will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide | 26 | Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025? | 1750478340000 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57041467148711 | False | basic | public | 1719366605389 | Erick Zhao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "uh so like I have my 3 IM norms, need 2400 FIDE rating (at 2359 FIDE)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm self-studying hrk and that stuff, currently on chapter 9 after two months. Taking AP Phys C mechanics and e&m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011442374771284125} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.870235191029254, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ErickZhao | 1719974761122 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714481298497 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719514856779 | 0 |
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