p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.14
y6htk8qlv8
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.14
will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo
0
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.894527931239049
False
public
1719284285911
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719284285948
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/8ye30unvgv.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
0
0.14
64gdi0vmdv
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.14
will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo-rgagjv6d7u
0
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.894527931239049
False
public
1719284286432
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719284286458
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/e78vys4zc5.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
0
0.49999999999999967
6mmjztmt0p
{"NO": 758.6612681072784, "YES": 13.181113127006142}
1
will-bronny-james-lebron-james-jr-b
749.4465832385403
Will Bronny James (LeBron James Jr.) be drafted at the 55th pick by the Los Angeles Lakers?
1719526340083
BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719284328186
Chinmay The Math Guy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only resolves to yes if Bronny is taken at the exact pick #55 to the Los Angeles Lakers (i.e. no trade ups or at 55 by another team)", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.146812935358029, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719526340083
100
ChinmayTheMathGuy
1719526340083
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c
8
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…y/08cmfjzeru.jpg
1677787177859
0
0.25
0.5
1719526102750
0.98
BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2
0
dmtvmmvhf6
when-will-most-end-users-of-synapse
1127
When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds?
1830326340000
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
cpmm-multi-1
0
1.092040176097314
False
premium
public
1719284337177
Jonathan Ray
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "class": "break-anywhere...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 38.60558924653531, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100000
JonathanRay
1720095619946
0
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
4
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "e3rwum06lz", "prob": 0.32220082744821654, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22385.79558270222, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47091.97627776894, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 5.206075307467861e...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…y/s04bye9ta4.jpg
1647294987992
0
0.25
1720095616320
1720031542471
True
0
0.4999999999999998
mn8uvoeyvm
{"NO": 970.8772359143396, "YES": 1029.996340431483}
0.48522667668361313
will-anthropic-add-voice-support-to
2357.4144392090116
Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)
1727733540000
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
cpmm-1
0
7.7220146021489775
False
basic
public
1719287034537
Soli ꩜
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like Claude 3 and would commit exclusively to it if Anthropic added voice support like the one chatgpt has. If it happens before October 2024, I will resolve the market as yes. Slow and partial rollouts count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": -0.024018170150715556, "week": -0.024018170150715556, "month": -0.014773323316386866}
0
{"creatorFee": 71.91935980430631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
1000
Soli
1720167619729
0
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
23
1
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…dd3-46ed8d82a0b3
1695418453844
0
0.25
0.5
1720167616669
1719379431743
0
7g257bprnb
how-do-you-rate-manifolds-leadershi
0
How do you rate Manifold's leadership and direction for Q2 2024? [POLL INDEX]
1720670340000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719287999114
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "24mQqMb8htfXdywFa9n3", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
strutheo
1719475604487
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
45
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/1nulo3k4hb.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
1719475603162
0
8v92xsd9pr
how-much-will-despicable-me-4-2024-edv7je2umy
3989.803391581485
How much will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?
1720205940000
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719288372740
Ziddletwix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Despicable Me 4\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 54.817271902574255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
1010.9317729264551
1000
Ziddletwix
1720194418904
0
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
14
3
ANYONE
[{"id": "gn49sa3d0i", "prob": 0.9829536681264905, "text": ">$56 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1898.4145894316755, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.92220800868927, "textFts": "'56':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/v4pa4qqf0r.jpg
1680369520541
0
0.25
1720194415806
False
old
0
0.14
d3igquix1f
{"NO": 1047.2251548614176, "YES": 753.1764629251695}
0.18456947444460733
will-sae-feature-geometry-is-outsid
50
Will "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.867769582210448
False
public
1719288685000
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04456947444460732}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.774845138582333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719391773319
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/b9hwnywi2g.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719391770229
0
xyo1l90sgo
which-canadian-nhl-team-will-win-th
483.0553150082214
Which Canadian NHL team will win the Stanley Cup next?
4891467540000
WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719289734530
constantine+-
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The legend continues. Will it ever end? Who will end it?", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 10.390777033828392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
constantine
1719788828893
0
https://firebasestorage.…32c-58631d0defe2
5
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "576xqxpczy", "prob": 0.08006369011562099, "text": "Calgary Flames", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.75192988173143, "userId": "WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 640.5928151733535, "textFts": "'calgari':1 'flame':2", "contractId": "xyo1l90sgo", "createdTime": 1719289734530, "probChanges": {"d...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/fla20pes4h.jpg
1680629538480
0
0.25
1719788825703
True
0
0.4999999999999999
dume7pk1i2
{"NO": 1284.413109802737, "YES": 778.565706288675}
0.6226012113087174
will-dragon-make-a-move-during-elba
466
Will dragon make a move during elbaf?
1721966340000
ahFJCyJUKbN8j1dlXP1qMOjxY9D2
cpmm-1
0
9.580086564303285
False
basic
public
1719290589485
JT
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Moneky D. Dragon make a move on the world government during the elbaf arc?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.029806345289005498, "month": 0.12260121130871737}
0
{"creatorFee": 14.521536516420129, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JT7otmw
1719773332626
0
https://storage.googleap…XP1qMOjxY9D2.png
5
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…w/29dwhj93mo.jpg
1719290105382
0
0.25
0.5
1719773329530
0
0.5
th3kd7ydpu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-the-sssb-relationship-result-i
110.61722620214888
Will the SSSB relationship result in a breakup before 1/1/2025?
1735718340000
9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719290914540
dusty
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you don't know me, this is your average high school cis-het relationship. These two have been together for somewhere in the ballpark of 1-2 months. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This mar...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.67423121929301, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
stardust2
1719425867969
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c
4
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…2/usd3o86n3m.jpg
1717034645753
0
0.25
0.5
1719425864911
0
0.5000000000000019
h3zr6f4bg5
{"NO": 4234.707251014689, "YES": 236.1438325542784}
0.9471814587110405
will-assange-survive-the-next-six-m
6096.390281874888
Will Assange survive the next six months?
1735685940000
XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1
cpmm-1
0
9.904985290728838
False
basic
public
1719292036797
Schwabilismus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Surprisingly Julian Assange is free! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.44718145871104054}
0
{"creatorFee": 65.9628255317599, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Schwabilismus
1719421275863
0
https://firebasestorage.…7ac-9e48249d8120
32
15
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/b143bljkoh.jpg
1681912243026
0
0.25
0.5
1719421272584
1719292693069
0
py0ul0f3ql
who-will-win-between-south-africa-a
0
Who will win between South Africa and Afghanistan in the T20 world cup semi final?
1719611940000
BA6lDWuWsresZahapq9NxZPIkoA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719292474383
Arnold de Wit
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South Africa is playing Afghanistan in the 2024 ICC T20 world cup semi final. Who wil win?", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719611943494
ArnolddeWit
1719292474457
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMxIIAJOdfUjbbipCXtlijUNeuq_PzP4VUYPCoV3wy_t1YfyU=s96-c
1
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/84horuhoub.jpg
1718051425811
0
0.25
["fx38u6f9ev"]
0
aa25n3t92w
we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse
0
We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it?
1719903540000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1719293229441
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New users & many returning users seemed to prefer the denser search page as opposed to the feed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We made the browse/search the default now, and the feed page is...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719903541875
JamesGrugett
1719898632470
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
25
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/bpmvuw6cw6.jpg
1639087027342
0
0.25
1719898631455
["iurypvnxv9"]
0
0.5
iznfavshlj
{"NO": 334.75325411319494, "YES": 29.87274918802904}
0.9180729050655484
will-julian-assange-be-alive-one-ye
401
Will Julian Assange be alive one year after being freed?
1753502340000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719294574136
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4180729050655484}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.722723832313005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1719396844389
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
9
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/y2zjp4rva1.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719396841321
0
0.49999999999999994
q6lvhulhut
{"NO": 100.77011617168085, "YES": 99.23576929258587}
0.5038357543217624
ilya-sutskever-become-a-father-by-2
22
Ilya sutskever become a father by 2032?
1988168340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719294832965
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003835754321762419}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7415456648465094, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
StochasticParrot
1719301758647
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/cacu909w5n.jpg
1650319241876
0
0.25
0.5
1719301755547
0
0.5000000000000001
50pfldulbx
{"NO": 117.25193369992445, "YES": 85.28643992850793}
0.5789121913017308
will-claude-35-haiku-release-before-svx52wz072
30
Will Claude 3.5 Haiku release before the end of August?
1725163140000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719295282184
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.027959449721575713, "month": 0.07891219130173077}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9536052212858663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1719732373707
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
4
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/68faia9zbj.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719732370646
0
0.4999999999999997
p5q370svf6
{"NO": 21.43884122160088, "YES": 466.4431205322994}
0.04394268061178113
will-claude-35-haiku-release-before-2opulvr1sf
399.07177594849514
Will Claude 3.5 Haiku release before the end of 7/7?
1720411140000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719295327168
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": -0.02523136473687835, "week": -0.2526531429564363, "month": -0.45605731938821886}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.869607166998159, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
100
100
strutheo
1720218172502
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
8
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/ytm0zy5k3k.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1720218169377
0
0.5
v8leak30tv
{"NO": 85.28719748093843, "YES": 117.25089222488504}
1
will-i-clean-my-home-for-at-least-3
30
Will I clean my home for at least 30 minutes a day until and including Sunday?
1719784740000
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719297330227
redcat
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My 60-minutes per week market isn't cutting it at the moment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.606867158348557, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9547710222997133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719814499329
100
redcat
1719784740000
0
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/zxp66vlb6r.jpg
1697305658168
0
0.25
0.5
1719745331231
0.42
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
0
c7un3xdrxs
what-countries-will-be-newly-classi
575
What countries will be newly classified as full democracies by the EIU in the 2024 report?
1740783540000
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719299984676
Alex B. Goode
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question pertains to the classification of countries according to the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Democracy Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eiu.com/n/campa...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 15.148665996087788, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
AlexbGoode
1719323625925
0
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
3
3
ANYONE
[{"id": "720gd35urw", "prob": 0.31161262424555897, "text": "Chile", "index": 0, "poolNo": 134.5615772174507, "userId": "dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 297.2616762313975, "textFts": "'chile':1", "contractId": "c7un3xdrxs", "createdTime": 1719299984676, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1883873757544...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/1idnialhb7.jpg
1679667494995
0
0.25
1719323622868
False
0
0.14
av5yv360gn
{"NO": 1019.9466013573963, "YES": 885.7477161717475}
0.15786280881495277
will-sapirwhorf-for-rationalists-ma
80
Will "Sapir-Whorf for Rationalists" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.882231240537099
False
public
1719300839182
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.016939825025804295, "month": 0.017862808814952752}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.1903847242671763, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719704992752
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/p0a66gzodd.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719704989675
0
0.5000000000000001
i37agzqvba
{"NO": 13.251119466373567, "YES": 754.6532219693801}
0
will-bitcoin-hit-70000-before-june
988.213597210149
Will Bitcoin hit $70,000 before June 30?
1719788340000
lYMqH4vS4QUpQrIQttMQGbis4is2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719301132873
Courage Afemije
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market dip is upon us. But will Bitcoin retrace back to $70,000?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.0482192638853133, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.939602308193137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720035419934
100
CourageAfemije
1719788340000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL5aVxROCHO1lAQgB1QxNUhg12O1Q-n4NHqY6CvbVpHoRXuhw0=s96-c
6
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/px8onillyq.jpg
1714505098220
0
0.25
0.5
1719776582204
1720031727324
0.02
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
0
0.5000000000000001
oi7wtf3b4m
{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066178}
0
will-anyone-at-the-june-27th-debate
1174.9021300283512
Will anyone at the June 27th debate say "fuck," or any variant of it?
1719652792354
szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719301259383
Destiny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this happens, the market will resolve yes. If it does not happen or the debate does not happen, this will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.018667123617371648, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.238060360635086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719652792354
100
Destiny3a152
1719652792354
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c
4
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…2/lellgn4kwk.jpg
1714885629354
0
0.25
0.5
1719652751897
0.01
szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2
0
0.4999999999999999
lut356hgas
{"NO": 50.08041790292533, "YES": 199.67884492065872}
0.20051475703745697
will-i-ever-beat-philinesgrosserbru
102
Will I ever beat @philinesgrosserbruder twice in a row in chess again?
1769821140000
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719301934930
redcat
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My colleague ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "rKERNYnck1W24L2kz3jafeaNQcC2", "label": "philinesgrosserbruder"}}, {"text": " is very bad at chess, but I'm even worse. He has been practicing regularly at chess.com for some tim...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.29948524296254303}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.3211550793412825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
redcat
1719477824884
0
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/u6g5sbxisy.jpg
1697305658168
0
0.25
0.5
1719475640985
1719477822908
0
0.5
d69sh8g863
{"NO": 67.27469601303663, "YES": 148.64429856453268}
0.3115737739732206
will-the-memecoin-slerf-reach-1b-ma
50
Will the memecoin $Slerf reach 1B Market cap by the end of 2024
1735660740000
NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719302547879
Yu Matthew
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resloved yes immediately if the marketcap of slerf reaches 1 billion USD on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/slerf/.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1884262260267794}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.3557014354673005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
YuMatthew
1719342569384
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcv7-YdT2KrY1LeMjA_TiGixe1Z2noF3pqHIssxSojg=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…w/vn7p3gfzlq.jpg
1691211556648
0
0.25
0.5
1719342566303
0
lzdrs5vfvm
do-you-bet-to-earn-mana-in-long-ter
0
Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets?
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719303192558
nikki
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Loans have been removed for a while. How does this change betting on long term markets? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A long term market is a market resolving in 2026 or later. ", "type": "...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
nikki
1719305659351
0
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
17
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/hkahewurgw.jpg
1678327601414
0
0.25
1719305658313
0
0.14
cwmcf1zpgn
{"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298}
0.1333684859411233
will-llm-generality-is-a-timeline-c
50
Will "LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.899812762135237
False
public
1719304746615
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719312955123
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/zoxm4lf36t.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719312951931
0
0.5000000000000001
2ect3zato0
{"NO": 617.5049023684134, "YES": 16.194203417082917}
1
will-bill-ackman-endorse-trump
547.3221663538134
Will Bill Ackman endorse Trump?
1719595644125
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719308111815
Charlie Bauer
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ackman has supported Trump and RFK Jr on some issues and previously donated to Democrat Dean Phillips. Forbes says he is “widely expected to endorse Trump after previously backing Kennedy” but their confidence doesn’t seem justified.", "type": "tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.172931277773216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719595644125
100
CharlieBauer
1719595644125
0
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/nh99dvruhn.jpg
1709850463261
0
0.25
0.5
1719595622579
0.97
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
0
0.5000000000000003
vo4lts2216
{"NO": 730.7406680469528, "YES": 1368.4745405954964}
0.34810183588538274
will-julian-assange-be-guest-of-the
874
Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024?
1735685940000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
9.585676980807234
False
basic
public
1719309321589
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of Assange must be longer than 10 minutes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0.008940626736778534, "week": 0.060552611617286145, "month": -0.15189816411461726}
0
{"creatorFee": 25.830611674559393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
15
1000
itsTomekK
1720226693372
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
14
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…K/asaltdevwp.jpg
1658666303973
0
0.25
0.5
1720226690080
1719330102123
0
0.5000000000000001
xlg4u6fn9l
{"NO": 2818.543326122181, "YES": 354.7931978664396}
1
will-boston-bruins-trade-jake-debru
1850
Will Boston Bruins trade Jake DeBrusk by start of '24-'25 season?
1719856046969
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
cpmm-1
0
9.744710027750113
True
basic
YES
public
1719312985000
Bruce
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.3577483984107842, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 31.45667387781909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719856046969
1000
Bruce54df
1719856046969
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…f/8u790xiowa.jpg
1697633597735
0
0.25
0.5
1719856026557
0.89
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
0
0.5000000000000001
toouubbjmj
{"NO": 134.49427781864503, "YES": 74.35260564381949}
0.6439850841385303
will-we-get-asi-before-2036
190
Will we get ASI before 2036?
2088370740000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719313094525
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Arti...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.11800290449803819, "month": 0.14398508413853028}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.216391402000554, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719658647362
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
7
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/jz9bb3nsq5.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719658644027
0
0.5
xozm2i9egd
{"NO": 86.3964327293786, "YES": 115.74551962490418}
0.42740476048216086
will-we-get-cryopreservation-before-bqwj84nn7p
105.05549805511627
Will we get cryopreservation before 2042?
2277673140000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719313401769
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 100 adult humans have been successfully revived from 1-year cryopreservation before January 1st 2042.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questio...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.17740476048216086, "month": -0.07259523951783914}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.189011487812524, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719658638385
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/zpzq1ge3uo.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719658634842
0
0.5000000000000001
kxq3b5di6y
{"NO": 77.68137576229327, "YES": 128.73098476783193}
0.3763407170131943
will-we-get-fusion-drives-before-20-zd8a508550
105
Will we get fusion drives before 2047?
2435439540000
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719313661324
RemNi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2047, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.03599708180940092, "month": -0.12365928298680567}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.4053043926669897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RemNi
1719768230687
0
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
3
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…i/r22dnky7sw.jpg
1690812555459
0
0.25
0.5
1719768227619
0
0.5
010qqw8019
{"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188}
0.5235901585435151
if-trump-wins-will-the-us-use-more
50
If Trump wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028?
1861981140000
HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3
cpmm-1
0
9.57067945137204
False
basic
public
1719313662862
Samuel Knoche
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Trump is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The mos...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
SamuelKnoche
1719313900930
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c
1
1
0.13333333333333333
1689882283507
0
0.25
0.5
1719313862089
0
0.5
kks1xvp2wr
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.5
if-biden-wins-will-the-us-use-more
0
If Biden wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028?
1861981140000
HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714711
False
basic
public
1719313708925
Samuel Knoche
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Biden is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The mos...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
SamuelKnoche
1719313964897
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/g0qgdfr5ol.jpg
1689882283507
0
0.25
0.5
0
2ba41c5wd9
united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204
4676.01901316591
United nations - will it stand by 2040?
2209071540000
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719314216798
ed
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are other feasible trajectories feel free to add them. If there are duplicates or some other non logical offered options, i reserve the right to remove them or to resolve them to NA", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 63.23080937487653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1200
3d
1719826708689
0
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
21
3
ANYONE
[{"id": "exumqasmm3", "prob": 0.8810366920753878, "text": "Remains without any contender organization", "index": 0, "poolNo": 680.3470258341487, "userId": "TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.86488310633987, "textFts": "'contend':4 'organ':5 'remain':1 'without':2", "contractId": "2ba41c5wd9"...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/ygghv8669n.jpg
1709499486885
0
0.25
1719820637919
1719418235743
False
0
0.5
b0022qd3as
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.5
will-the-smb1-any-ntsc-world-record
0
Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040?
2209093140000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714711
False
basic
public
1719317098739
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Ibozz91
1719317098779
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…1/nc7kpv1q10.jpg
1656270007406
0
0.25
0.5
0
0.5
avru6fl4fq
{"NO": 64.8351002571833, "YES": 154.23744176121753}
0.29595265412923144
will-a-google-model-be-on-rank-1-of
155
Will a Google model be on rank 1 of LMSYS for more than 1 week in 2024?
1735685940000
64EqMhaqqUUntAtHS6W6DmMgMQf1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719317118234
Rick Radewagen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline acti...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20404734587076856}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.675731528543971, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
RickRadewagen
1719423159966
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIxs8yH_S_DBwI7l_1ZYWP8hC5jqCq_N9rm0JPMG5h-RcjTA=s96-c
7
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/a94wqzzv2q.jpg
1719315355520
0
0.25
0.5
1719423156877
0
0.5000000000000013
a13z4d1ybx
{"NO": 989.8529636062676, "YES": 1010.251054213916}
1
daily-coinflip-33lwnohxb8
22268.742997326957
Daily coinflip
1719460740000
gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93
cpmm-1
0
9.570349487466462
True
basic
YES
public
1719320643625
Traveel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 168)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 347.74822738086516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719480672777
1000
Traveel
1719484160521
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c
81
49
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/rg5gr3lx0j.jpg
1674441975928
0
0.25
0.5
False
False
1719484160521
1719480632683
0.49
gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93
0
0.49999999999999994
evwmukfzrc
{"NO": 77.4512243555974, "YES": 129.11351735496862}
0.3749489080964279
a-reputable-news-outlet-reports-on
30
A reputable news outlet reports on a Twitter Julian Assange disinformation campaign by EOY 2024.
1735685940000
8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719321420070
AhmedButCooler
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2024, a reputable news outlet publishes a report explicitly identifying a disinformation campaign with the intent to negatively shape public opinion about Julian Assange that origi...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1250510919035721}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8864826450313626, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
AhmedButCooler
1719481259006
0
https://firebasestorage.…c5d-88709946cd32
2
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/9jhuv2axup.jpg
1714851175704
0
0.25
0.5
1719384992295
0
0.4999999999999997
x98tsufnid
{"NO": 339.1164991562634, "YES": 29.48839123097951}
0.9199999999999997
will-ai-accelerators-improve-in-flo
2183.8936568933163
Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?
1988254740000
12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2
cpmm-1
0
6.679599185844382
False
play
public
1719321915342
Paul
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Compared to an H100, will tensor TFLOPs/Watt improve by 100x by 2033? AI accelerators in scope for this question must be deployed significantly - with at least 100k units or $100M (in 2024 dollars) in production, and have published perf/watt number...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4199999999999997}
0
{"creatorFee": 14.008528396646701, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Paul
1720057696752
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c
16
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/fs3kkt2tgo.jpg
1644631568232
0
0.25
0.5
1720057693705
1719424169185
0
0.5000000000000002
zuchnit85n
{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066178}
0
will-a-team-other-than-india-ie-sa
2387.0094458713265
Will a team other than India (i.e. SA, Eng or Afg) win the t20 cricket world cup?
1719701940000
ppnNDcLi7Eh2Vz5RVt5fswENSUB3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719323920964
Henry
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if South Africa, England or Afghanistan win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO if India win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet", "type": "text"}]}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.2337855614346391, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.78259898251096, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719706405623
100
HenryLane
1719701940000
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenryLane%2FPqINLecjcU.47?alt=media&token=21be9814-8db0-4e86-88bf-7715650c2327
12
8
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/bf0to8juks.jpg
1698681928451
0
0.25
0.5
1719699952407
1719684339781
0.01
ppnNDcLi7Eh2Vz5RVt5fswENSUB3
0
0.49999999999999994
r40b7zggjm
{"NO": 577.350269189626, "YES": 1732.0508075688779}
0.24999999999999997
how-many-characters-will-i-make-art
1426.898644765113
How many characters* will I make art of for Art Fight 2024?
1722549540000
wfiuw0M6D5XAvlVRy1NUscfLcr53
cpmm-1
0
9.617801077831913
False
basic
public
1719324522728
hecko
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Resolves to a percentage equal to the total count of characters across all my attacks, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "excluding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ones that fall under \"Simple Shaped\" in the ", "type": "...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05000000000000013, "month": -0.25}
0
{"creatorFee": 28.181170529568288, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
hecko
1719928220600
0
https://firebasestorage.…25e-e074822a87cf
2
2
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…5a3-d5438f12cd17
1718457351404
0
0.25
0.5
1719884191539
1719870149822
0
0.49999999999999933
m0xokegumb
{"NO": 1850.5777652242652, "YES": 540.3717794473887}
0.7739928135867048
will-we-have-agi-before-a-mars-colo
3282.4065383832344
Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?
2556104340000
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-1
0
4.939597638380135
False
basic
public
1719324883920
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever is first:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...
BINARY
{"day": -0.027308761525611014, "week": -0.027308761525611014, "month": 0.2739928135867048}
0
{"creatorFee": 69.79020833182837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
155.25463439618332
1000
Daniel_MC
1720218451650
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
33
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…C/azv1emxqbp.jpg
1678868464369
0
0.25
0.5
1720218448365
1719607576667
0
0.49999999999999895
5j8sm44ir9
{"NO": 994.9874371066201, "YES": 10.050378152592202}
1
will-jullian-assange-arrive-free-in
909.6644685874331
Will Julian Assange arrive free in Australia on schedule?
1719462146344
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719325148688
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a risk the US arrests him or pulls some shanigins. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the deal is finalised on 26th June and Assange is free to travel to Australia, resolves YES. ", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.230448242272892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719462146344
100
Daniel_MC
1719462146344
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
5
4
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…C/92yp3k4x18.jpg
1678868464369
0
0.25
0.5
1719434143398
1719461662734
0.99
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
0
0.5000000000000001
any8zeit1o
{"NO": 43.97848514648861, "YES": 227.3839120808925}
0.16206550942884687
f1-the-races-from-jun30-to-sep1-are
130
F1: The races from Jun30 to Sep1 are all in Europe. Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium for any of these races?
1725249540000
wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719325833618
Stefan XJ7
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are six Formula 1 races from June 30 to September 1, in Austria, Great Britain, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, and Italy.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium for any of th...
BINARY
{"day": -0.04156119344900819, "week": -0.088052617522179, "month": -0.3379344905711531}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.6160879191075175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
30
100
StefanXJ7
1720188795418
0
https://firebasestorage.…d50-04f706f5d0ae
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…a8c-cd445825e797
1697084511068
0
0.25
0.5
1720188792298
0
7a7ork2faq
how-many-seats-will-the-presidentia
548.0105923694856
How many seats will the presidential coalition (Renaissance-Ensemble) obtain in the 2024 French legislative elections ?
1720475940000
A1E4OmLRvqNexVOX7txpYSHslxo2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719326725492
Antoine Chapel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After suffering a loss in the European elections, French president Emmanuel Macron has chosen to call for new legislative (parliamentary) elections. These elections are typically held right after the presidential election and are favorable to the p...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.808703911733461, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
AntoineChapel
1720093634848
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQS5V8EVyWYUsjl3ijptpD65wYbnUzoqcupCySo6IJ3xQ=s96-c
3
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "9y1zkl7ujr", "prob": 0.005582938744592619, "text": "0-50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4160159076934633, "userId": "A1E4OmLRvqNexVOX7txpYSHslxo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 252.21669841591466, "textFts": "'-50':2 '0':1", "contractId": "7a7ork2faq", "createdTime": 1719326725493, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/bm7s3nqp6i.jpg
1711032774777
0
0.25
1720093631549
True
0
0.5
e0akv4svcr
{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}
0.5
will-duke-energy-duk-choose-to-buil
0
Will Duke Energy ($DUK) choose to build an a BWRX-300 at Belews Creek?
1735707540000
R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2
cpmm-1
0
9.570333339714711
False
basic
public
1719327407244
Bernie B
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently engaged in pre-application activities with Duke regarding a future ESP that would be at the Belews Creek, NC site for a small modular light water reactor (SMR) rated at approximately 300MWe ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
BernieB
1719327407275
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…B/w1f6t02rh2.jpg
1704591987823
0
0.25
0.5
0
0.5000000000000001
kxyvfcpege
{"NO": 1669.5341826127158, "YES": 598.9694673007912}
0.7359627491348192
will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only
4249.00598151631
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
1798779540000
asgRXgA7gxY0eZwwOuZCj9t6h5h2
cpmm-1
0
9.603933713672903
False
basic
public
1719327514493
Jarom Gordon
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, ASML is “the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines that are required to manufacture the most advanced chips” (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Hold...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.05403725086518074, "month": 0.23596274913481918}
0
{"creatorFee": 84.57148443114296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JaromGordon
1719992775174
0
https://firebasestorage.…120-1ad2e0b9f51c
35
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/ugz5q2zy7l.jpg
1715209618340
0
0.25
0.5
1719992771958
1719335832074
0
0.5000000000000006
5h4cayle5a
{"NO": 1538.615191258186, "YES": 649.9350881764404}
0.7030294006567952
will-argentinas-inflation-in-june-2
2973.8383897528115
Will Argentina's inflation in June 2024 be >270%? (May = 276%)
1720335540000
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
cpmm-1
0
9.599393323353972
False
basic
public
1719330428979
Ziddletwix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "OECD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?fs[0]=Topic%2C1%7CEconomy%23ECO%23%7CPrices%23ECO_PRI%23&pg=0&fc=Topic&bp=true&snb=16&df[ds]=dsDissem...
BINARY
{"day": 0.3430294006567951, "week": 0.38298441894382806, "month": 0.2030294006567952}
0
{"creatorFee": 90.01886540139179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
1893.6239650717662
1000
Ziddletwix
1720247897690
0
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
25
6
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/5b3matazer.jpg
1680369520541
0
0.25
0.5
1720247894633
0
0.5000000000000003
mmlwkjr7wn
{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066176}
0
will-trump-announce-his-vp-pick-on-bg02zd1588
1885.40191673753
Will Trump announce his VP pick on Thursday or Friday this week, if not during the debate?
1719854012897
NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719331168115
Stephen S Power
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The reason he would is obvious. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bids close Wednesday to prevent sniping. I'll resolve after midnight PDT, so Saturday morning for most of us. ", "type": "text"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.03542068394892684, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 16.611872335939708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719854012897
100
StephenSPower
1719854012897
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c
17
4
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/bu5rz21g5o.jpg
1696858950851
0
0.25
0.5
1719847450472
1719849961539
0.01
NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72
0
3gnrkp1qg7
what-will-happen-after-the-julian-a
9097.340075580809
What will happen after the Julian Assange plea deal announced on June 25th? Multi-question.
1730869140000
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719332393291
Niko
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All questions will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " the US election (November 5th). Except those stated as resolving faster. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 90.18507240990022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2100
Moscow25
1719846305609
0
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
33
1
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "idahuhnji8", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Assange will be freed from UK jail by July?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1484.8706380494546, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.035737468871162, "textFts": "'assang':1 'freed':4 'jail':7 'juli':9 'uk':6", "contractId": "3gnrkp1qg7", "resolut...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…5/idw64h309w.jpg
1715368331856
0
0.25
1719846302516
1719409828532
False
0
0.5000000000000004
g1bl9yh622
{"NO": 2984.966593677722, "YES": 335.01212446331596}
0.8990920867556346
will-a-new-british-record-for-swing
7179.102264337566
Will a new British record for swing, post war, be set at the 2024 general election?
1720047540000
Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2
cpmm-1
0
9.765479051923158
False
basic
public
1719334038022
Harry Hayfield
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the 2015 general election, the SNP gained the constituency of Glasgow North East from Labour on a swing of 39.28% from Lab to SNP, a new post war record for swing between two established parties who had contested the seat at the last election. A...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.023862846139312555, "month": 0.39909208675563457}
0
{"creatorFee": 75.70448637775782, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
HarryHayfield
1719978194287
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c
28
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/vv3w1jnfmk.jpg
1708098506766
0
0.25
0.5
1719978190864
1719364462278
0
0.4999999999999992
9wdgjeewu6
{"NO": 994.9874371066189, "YES": 10.050378152591975}
0.9900000000000001
will-jimmy-carter-live-to-hear-the
900.0898938468499
Will Jimmy Carter live to hear the Death of Slim Shady, Eminem's next album?
1722657540000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719334674337
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.06501457764934027, "month": 0.4900000000000001}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.102456740230998, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1719924454514
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/n8xlipmaj1.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719924451305
1719336505679
0
d9cmvtcm4o
who-would-manifold-want-as-trumps-v
0
Who would Manifold want as Trump's VP? [poll, read description]
1721969940000
ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719339122870
Zane
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote for whoever you would most want as vice president out of these options (everyone who's currently above 1% at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Stralor/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445", "type": "text", "mark...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
ZaneMiller
1719356114841
0
https://firebasestorage.…cd7-65f87738b782
4
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/w3tgv06z6w.jpg
1669859805273
0
0.25
1719356113518
0
0.5000000000000004
505gevq7gt
{"NO": 1069.356288584815, "YES": 9.351420201805695}
1
will-biden-say-folks-or-any-variant
4797.280572113839
Will Biden say "folks" or any variant of the word during the debate
1719550397341
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719339692053
Hillary Clinton
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 27.72146523450417, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719550397341
100
HillaryClinton
1719677463359
0
https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95
38
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/i6wa5e7lad.jpg
1713377673183
0
0.25
0.5
1719677463359
1719549705122
0.99
WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2
0
rvwr82qr1x
which-countries-will-legalize-homos
1982.0320157815431
Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)
1922504340000
QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719339792706
Joshua Bartlett
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 48.15435961780893, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2000
JoshuaBartlett
1719434566481
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLrHZK1BMnH4TIzVLpAvx9iyt35hQENFarO6Vwk0Zyj=s96-c
23
23
ANYONE
[{"id": "iec9sffp9a", "prob": 0.07609867881514662, "text": "Egypt", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.83265791493754, "userId": "QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 580.7282929411103, "textFts": "'egypt':1", "contractId": "rvwr82qr1x", "createdTime": 1719339792706, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0234659411635...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/o3kn1n7frl.jpg
1695348085515
0
0.25
1719407471088
1719434564907
False
0
spsmzjkqxz
what-election-related-stock-will-in
2709.211229988827
What election related stock will increase the most in the lead up to Nov 5, 2024 vote.
1730869140000
JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719339838863
Brooker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy the rumor, sell the news! In the lead up to the 2024 presidential election the stock market will start pricing in a winner. The higher the likelihood a candidate will win the more the stock that benefits from their winning will pump into the el...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 52.159584869466634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Brooker
1719421898704
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCUyBeLE3uL8Bz12FsMymyGe0BrshjUrV_Vjt2TCt8v81jsuM=s96-c
16
16
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "lvha6j44s1", "prob": 0.11913645890062881, "text": "Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT $36)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.77629938613248, "userId": "JbgmsKyH4UUHM3g3tpf9PKGXLNT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 271.91425366117124, "textFts": "'36':6 'djt':5 'group':4 'media':2 'technolog':3 'trump':1", "contractId"...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/sgeoje4nck.jpg
1715715054189
0
0.25
1719421895649
1719404563770
False
0
0.5
5l0bx922jo
{"NO": 333.33333333333826, "YES": 2999.9999999999463}
0
would-manifold-users-have-a-negativ
4903.383792175402
Would Manifold users have a negative opinion of their President if they use performance enhancing drugs before a debate?
1719895584974
Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2
cpmm-1
0
9.767359876052344
True
basic
NO
public
1719340436279
Quillist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will publish a poll right before the debate. If >50% vote that they would have a negative opinion, then the market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.13021645604137522, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 70.09956598093092, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719895584974
1000
Quillist
1719895584974
0
https://firebasestorage.…091-bddc490f9db7
20
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/tiko485sm5.jpg
1702722697077
0
0.25
0.5
1719864416317
1719631293038
0.1
Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2
0
krvvpuirf1
who-will-be-the-most-cited-ml-resea
1267.8393795050297
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
2240607540000
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719342604102
Łukasz Bartoszcze
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving based on Google Scholar ranking e.g. for now it looks like this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&hl=en&mauthors=label:machine_learning", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 24.63612983521016, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
1000
ukaszBartoszcze
1720195727652
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
19
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "ks261z8k0g", "prob": 0.1560715833877404, "text": "Geoffrey Hinton", "index": 0, "poolNo": 107.51006429334629, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 581.3409229248132, "textFts": "'geoffrey':1 'hinton':2", "contractId": "krvvpuirf1", "createdTime": 1719342604103, "probChanges": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/m0q5zh1tdl.jpg
1708276167391
0
0.25
1720195723873
1719424202222
True
0
1esu71rw1m
who-will-win-ballon-dor-in-2030
87
Who will win Ballon d'Or in 2030?
1924988340000
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719342776658
Łukasz Bartoszcze
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new options", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.508968543586776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ukaszBartoszcze
1719934500274
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
3
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "bzb4xf7yry", "prob": 0.16171868689477983, "text": "Erling Haaland", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.80578456531626, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 569.1867714202513, "textFts": "'erl':1 'haaland':2", "contractId": "1esu71rw1m", "createdTime": 1719342776658, "probChanges": {"da...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/5d37ilnjus.jpg
1708276167391
0
0.25
1719934495966
True
0
u4oabtgl2y
which-team-will-win-the-2030-fifa-w
526
Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
1924988340000
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719342909815
Łukasz Bartoszcze
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 15.842489915228422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1500
ukaszBartoszcze
1720133682019
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
10
1
ANYONE
[{"id": "6ac1fkr1ed", "prob": 0.06652871601692338, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.98360459116978, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 953.8849757956261, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "u4oabtgl2y", "createdTime": 1719342909816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/oef3ulu4t7.jpg
1708276167391
0
0.25
1720133678905
True
0
qviq429rhm
who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-t
1210.358328650652
Who will be the top goalscorer at the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
1924988340000
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719343039400
Łukasz Bartoszcze
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add new options", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 14.353287668558659, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ukaszBartoszcze
1719447227902
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
10
9
ANYONE
[{"id": "7jioeii9jg", "prob": 0.04191340094656569, "text": "Kylian Mbappe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 52.28945036231826, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1195.2697832341328, "textFts": "'kylian':1 'mbapp':2", "contractId": "qviq429rhm", "createdTime": 1719343039400, "probChanges": {"da...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…e/mdwhl8rdlv.jpg
1708276167391
0
0.25
1719447224496
1719407325612
True
0
1nxa46kwiq
google-event-august-13-prop-bets
4309.61945667502
Google Event (August 13) - Prop bets
1723607940000
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719343252679
Bayesian
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1805644943731589158"}}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 79.1426942899637, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1200
Bayesian
1719800074544
0
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
39
2
ANYONE
[{"id": "ss4wcyht4v", "prob": 0.8799999999999975, "text": "A new version of Gemini is announced", "index": 0, "poolNo": 300.8903112828098, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.03049699311142, "textFts": "'announc':7 'gemini':5 'new':2 'version':3", "contractId": "1nxa46kwiq", "creat...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/ar42p26mih.jpg
1656040913178
0
0.25
1719800071474
1719430957585
False
0
v9qmefyvbf
how-many-times-will-538s-election-m
5039.690734636165
How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election?
1730869140000
9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719343678644
Michael
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question concerns ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538's election forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 99.88853570596122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
burkh4rt
1720061682458
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c
41
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "7jci621k8y", "prob": 0.11890322632692996, "text": "0 times", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.83855093885408, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 680.5420965495473, "textFts": "'0':1 'time':2", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/q52zg8sskr.jpg
1706719887452
0
0.25
1720061679386
1719522040041
True
0
sd7hwkc0i5
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay-tk6p7j355a
400
To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾
1723442400000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719344247105
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.897315505011942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719937261691
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
1
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "5l4kn1mmdz", "prob": 0.0717240943077831, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 62.155419164067695, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 804.4350866336881, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07747294244273427, "w...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/w03th6w1fm.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719937257899
True
new
0
bgp4fn4gdb
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-coc-zg0ae4pfin
5
To which is the last round that Coco Gauff will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾
1723442400000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719344316223
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.22860123179197464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719544293846
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
1
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "ltylay5x0x", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/zro4e23bmw.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719544289835
True
new
0
5ssvaedgzo
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-nao
1
To which is the last round that Naomi Osaka will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾
1723442400000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719344405501
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.04622906292888101, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719388180710
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
1
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "abgbne97fd", "prob": 0.16666666666666666, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "5ssvaedgzo", "createdTime": 1719344405502, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpda...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…ls/x9e2dzwif.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719388177606
True
0
2ocz4qvcbx
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-kei
299
To which is the last round that Kei Nishikori will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾
1723442400000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719344488811
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.2224594302563854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ovals
1719385243001
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
4
4
DISABLED
[{"id": "tdb5hbq3eg", "prob": 0.12294987754235395, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.72147009452503, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 597.2183711483793, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "2ocz4qvcbx", "createdTime": 1719344488811, "probChanges": {"day": -0.043716789124312705, "...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/j4rdd1fic0.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719385239824
1719344857522
True
new
0
0.5
h21yoxpegf
{"NO": 498.68080372801563, "YES": 2005.2907441478496}
0.19915593855331531
will-the-team-that-is-the-2025-nhl
1028
Will the team that is the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup winner be a first-time champion?
1751345940000
4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2
cpmm-1
0
9.647088592702389
False
basic
public
1719344648615
Spongpad
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following this year’s wild Stanley Cup final which saw the Florida Panthers hoist the trophy for the first time, I’m building a question to fulfill if any of the following active franchises win next year’s Stanley Cup:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.1073959521509999, "month": -0.3008440614466847}
0
{"creatorFee": 22.709255852150108, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LBeesley
1719788522002
0
https://firebasestorage.…624-9f8c6cb1e486
7
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…y/k13m1d84m1.jpg
1681923448038
0
0.25
0.5
1719788518956
1719415231974
0
xoota14e8q
what-will-be-my-manifold-rank-on-ja
22.37459515713295
What will be my Manifold Creator Leaderboard rank on January 1st, 2025?
1735711140000
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719345129911
Stuart Slagle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.5815985451763135, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
ovals
1719409641642
0
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
3
3
DISABLED
[{"id": "ouuxj6hm2c", "prob": 0.39378938096801147, "text": "< 100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.266422349792155, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.81699501559929, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "xoota14e8q", "createdTime": 1719345129911, "probChanges": {"day": 0.143789380968011...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/egm8g5japc.jpg
1697477345360
0
0.25
1719364847681
1719353791187
True
0
0.4999999999999988
9p5uhh6s37
{"NO": 738.046569460871, "YES": 13.549280511262154}
1
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-wh9bu9gz9o
1564.248398168721
Will the S&P 500 Stock Index close higher on June 26, 2024 than it did on June 25, 2024
1719432162948
Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1719345791333
Jim Fix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.604588507387643, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719432162948
100
JimFix
1719432162948
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c
10
10
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/cg3wjenygo.jpg
1696775041650
0
0.25
0.5
1719432132228
0.98
Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12
0
jxk5ut30nh
queen-anna-van-der-breggen-unretire
116
Queen Anna van der Breggen Unretires Mega Market - Which races will she win before she re-retires?
1893538740000
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719345945317
Lion
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These questions will either be resolved if van der Breggen 🧡 wins a race or if she re-retires (announces it and does not have a contract on January 1st).", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.9037898733349135, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Lion
1719349028332
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
3
3
ANYONE
[{"id": "or70mxpob9", "prob": 0.3795637696962439, "text": "Fleche Wallonne (Mur de Huy)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.821567550142246, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.785160948738632, "textFts": "'de':4 'flech':1 'huy':5 'mur':3 'wallonn':2", "contractId": "jxk5ut30nh", "createdTim...
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…4be-00e3ff75b092
1691095902341
0
0.25
1719348936400
1719349026887
False
0
0.5000000000000001
ean2rep51a
{"NO": 118.26333930218014, "YES": 8455.705765629154}
0
will-joe-biden-fall-during-the-pres
44265.20016117054
Will Joe Biden Fall During the Presidential Debate?
1719542579115
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
cpmm-1
0
9.85894489756933
True
basic
NO
public
1719346185984
D
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "President Biden is notorious for falling, sleeping, or getting lost...", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 318.45135868378503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719542579115
1000
xPMEx
1719542579115
0
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
150
17
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…5fa-e57855d8ecb4
1719227559161
0
0.25
0.5
1719542207805
1719480430581
0.01
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
0
o6ncu0ei21
how-will-mexico-perform-in-copa-ame
9853.659702479146
How will Mexico perform in Copa America?
1719799173336
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
xt8n7ujecq
public
1719347022044
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only one answer will resolve YES. This market disregards the third place game.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 27.611875456445887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719799173336
100
10thOfficial
1719799173336
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
17
3
DISABLED
[{"id": "xt8n7ujecq", "prob": 0.9796363503582144, "text": "Eliminated in group stage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 173.39822453813065, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.604419835698234, "textFts": "'elimin':1 'group':3 'stage':4", "contractId": "o6ncu0ei21", "resolverId": "sTUV8ejuM2byu...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/b9ol1s4by3.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
1719799152245
{"xt8n7ujecq": 100}
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
True
0
73muasxcc9
what-will-be-the-primary-cause-of-a
3849.1700223818075
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
1893538740000
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719347096589
D
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown. Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight? ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 77.46211896982122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
xPMEx
1719799283448
0
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
27
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "1406xmeg56", "prob": 0.23123927995055807, "text": "AI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.40794835852324, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 303.8879908870385, "textFts": "'ai':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.26876072...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/yx3ovhz222.jpg
1719227559161
0
0.25
1719799280344
1719514242109
False
0
0.4999999999999999
9y1gxuntth
{"NO": 335.02667852887726, "YES": 2984.8369222148544}
0.10091579619530841
will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025
6424.128362574639
Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
1751432340000
lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3
cpmm-1
0
9.529399040732146
False
basic
public
1719347314275
Lorec
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to my subjective judgment. I am open to argument.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.39908420380469156}
0
{"creatorFee": 98.15266707810399, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Lorec
1719605056444
0
https://firebasestorage.…025-6a6edae5c327
63
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…c/72zx28k34w.jpg
1687730069422
0
0.25
0.5
1719605053369
1719354266070
0
0.5000000000000002
i6peb3y6s2
{"NO": 554.6169060846964, "YES": 1803.0463713403078}
0.2352400834314385
will-at-least-3-of-the-10-technolog
950
Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years?
1862027940000
lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3
cpmm-1
0
9.62510551711026
False
basic
public
1719347402312
Lorec
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:und...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.26475991656856146}
0
{"creatorFee": 23.731965121557298, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Lorec
1719425456490
0
https://firebasestorage.…025-6a6edae5c327
5
5
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…c/zhgwntgo1l.jpg
1687730069422
0
0.25
0.5
1719425453415
1719420995963
0
0.5000000000000002
47tcmmuxm8
{"NO": 174.6566917879005, "YES": 5725.517813049947}
0
will-nvidia-stock-reach-150-by-july
8798.67127118759
Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st?
1719748251935
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
cpmm-1
0
9.883411502214734
True
basic
NO
public
1719347583578
D
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The final verdict will be determined by the stock's closing price on June 28th", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.04279443032806563, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 77.08398931543847, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719748251935
1000
xPMEx
1719748251935
0
https://firebasestorage.…044-95934e6f5c46
40
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/z0yn8f1jt5.jpg
1719227559161
0
0.25
0.5
1719742540521
1719411547380
0.03
dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2
0
ppaxcmhvq6
who-will-spend-more-time-speaking-d
3854.808215278413
Who will spend more time speaking during the first Presidential Debate 6/27
1719634816663
uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
y2p823jhix
public
1719347941887
wfco223
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the candidate who spends the most time speaking during the debate. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If CNN reports their estimate of the time each candidate spoke i...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 54.69355408602275, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719634816663
1000
WilliamCox
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEPjKnLjm-V3FiRja4RpvT95mAX8ST3dxpphrndbTs=s96-c
50
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "y2p823jhix", "prob": 0.8186974293874225, "text": "Donald Trump", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1062.5019525126218, "userId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 235.29368525751528, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "ppaxcmhvq6", "resolverId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCm...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/qeles670db.jpg
1697308518788
0
0.25
1719572267012
1719634787349
{"y2p823jhix": 100}
uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2
True
0
0.5000000000000001
yla99bmh6h
{"NO": 56.76846966044067, "YES": 176.15412322746727}
0.24372247001285977
will-vultures-vol-2-release-before
365.3171155815288
Will Vultures Vol 2 (Kanye) release before the Death of Slim Shady (Eminem)?
1725163140000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719351078694
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two upcoming rap albums from Kanye and Eminem expected this summer.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.1494152639928686, "month": -0.25627752998714026}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.647583806105522, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
strutheo
1719893844111
0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
5
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/mkgoo52u3t.jpg
1700846926650
0
0.25
0.5
1719893841010
0
0.49999999999999994
f4w5jabz8u
{"NO": 296.61739218495177, "YES": 33.71346476461717}
0.8979403102818089
will-nasa-award-a-contract-to-a-new
200
Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?
1780322340000
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719351124372
Nat
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Almost exactly two years ago, as it prepared for the next generation of human spaceflight, NASA chose a pair of private companies to design and ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.0387340437143433, "month": 0.3979403102818089}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.3826078150482393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Nat
1719675505053
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…t/ii1iwlmleo.jpg
1702671407106
0
0.25
0.5
1719675501895
1719417403555
0
0.5
piug4ua4qd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
is-112
0
Is 1+1=2?
1719351403772
ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1719351397401
DottedCalculator
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719351403772
100
DottedCalculator
1719351403772
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhl-l-m_d_iYt1ungYnm52eXosXMHPxnWCzTyaJr7cLA=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/nyi05gyflc.jpg
1695606478731
True
0
0.25
0.5
0.5
ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33
0
0.5000000000000006
o4jnkug7wg
{"NO": 44.72914779125641, "YES": 223.5678633241202}
0.1667150431728868
will-claude-35-opus-have-a-higher-c
752.5744164885559
Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
1735793940000
GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719351942890
Jaundiced Baboon
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that if OpenAI ends of changing their naming scheme to something else, I will count it if the model appears to be the one mentioned in this blog post: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-securit...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.33328495682711323}
0
{"creatorFee": 16.461831040708635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
JaundicedBaboon
1719471059730
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c
22
14
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/yhqcu2gigm.jpg
1719339304648
0
0.25
0.5
1719471056647
0
0.5000000000000003
bf67l37i5m
{"NO": 1254.0721590051512, "YES": 797.4022808968934}
0.6113028437561387
will-a-thorium-based-nuclear-reacto
811
Will a thorium based nuclear reactor be in service for energy in the US before 2050?
2556255540000
tUUM7zQaxVOYk3BIs7FQMIk0yvp1
cpmm-1
0
9.578308460558466
False
basic
public
1719354069868
Lucas Thelen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any actor has a nuclear power plant using fertile thorium as it's main fuel source. Must be connected to the power grid and actively serving power before January 1st, 2051", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11130284375613875}
0
{"creatorFee": 26.36211719621255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LucasThelen
1719514384960
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIW-tR7hjhIpn0khOJZHSae_6z5FKhoCOqQLHJuq3IY=s96-c
12
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/v5xui6jdfl.jpg
1702662450593
0
0.25
0.5
1719514319510
1719514383657
0
0.49999999999999983
iv3jf5volh
{"NO": 213.43747458109408, "YES": 46.85212856658203}
0.8199999999999986
will-deadpool-wolverine-july-26-202
439.0209820412124
Will Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26, 2024) open to over $150 million domestically in its opening weekend? 🇺🇸
1722250740000
kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719355695473
João David
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoratio...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.3199999999999986}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.5703797689188495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
JoaoDavid
1719835690554
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c
11
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…d/357egdy3t1.jpg
1719351220393
0
0.25
0.5
1719835687439
0
0.5
l5qmwom6uu
{"NO": 952.1240744160484, "YES": 1050.2832843642932}
0
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-b43800qbdr
52
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 170 and 171?
1719944222926
8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2
cpmm-1
0
9.570707025495473
True
basic
NO
public
1719356890623
dwax
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.4764098414564849, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.7167156357069282, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719944226879
1000
dwax
1719944222926
0
https://firebasestorage.…35a-f30dc5e92bd8
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…x/xkrzqjwzb2.jpg
1708101936708
0
0.25
0.5
1719938146191
0.48
8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2
0
0.14000000000000004
v2k3ztz5ly
{"NO": 1008.2337201653769, "YES": 950.8761294994506}
0.14720180344271874
will-formal-verification-heuristic
17
Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.889259095791598
False
public
1719358063822
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007201803442718729}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6369316318538493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LessWrong
1719490806466
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…g/gmajblz8ci.jpg
1706554674237
0
0.25
0.14
1719490803136
0
0.5
qkgqe5x7o1
{"NO": 10.178470527077991, "YES": 982.4658796620558}
0
will-trump-skip-thursdays-president
2958.6797365130865
Will Trump skip Thursday’s presidential debate?
1719537335093
eHfG65u3ewQyO8wq2KpYfrTnR9y1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1719361159738
tc
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}
0
{"creatorFee": 22.38343221260961, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719537335093
100
Ciszek
1719537335093
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b8-9672b548ea17
22
6
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…k/mgk8wkvvdr.jpg
1717868631991
0
0.25
0.5
1719536583984
0.01
eHfG65u3ewQyO8wq2KpYfrTnR9y1
0
0.5000000000000001
t7nckwdc29
{"NO": 108.54308019697146, "YES": 92.12931844068875}
0.540896909260351
would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft
20
Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful?
1735649940000
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719362357591
keltan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where successful means: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20+ people as active users for 2 months", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.040896909260351055}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6602295454197525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
keltan
1719409434746
0
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
3
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/89t8tw3vbc.jpg
1714967863559
0
0.25
0.5
1719409431672
0
vrvp4cd6do
would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft-sl2qi41joo
0
Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful?
1735649940000
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
none
0
1000000
False
public
1719362462536
keltan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where successful means: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20+ people as active users for 2 months", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"t...
POLL
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
keltan
1719362462623
0
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
10
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/2nvtcj4gw0.jpg
1714967863559
0
0.25
0
aymuc4kd12
what-will-happen-with-the-recent-la
897.2616762313975
What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?
1767254340000
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1719362580551
Pat Scott🩴
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some labels, including Sony, Universal, and Warner, have started lawsuits against Udio and Suno.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/arts/music/record-labels-ai-lawsuit-sony-universal-w...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 22.65687036602213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1200
Stralor
1719447571719
0
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
4
4
ANYONE
[{"id": "3qluudw47z", "prob": 0.6883873757544411, "text": "Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily", "index": 0, "poolNo": 148.63083811569874, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.28078860872532, "textFts": "'servic':6 'shutdown':5 'suno':3 'temporarili':7 'udio':1", "contra...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…r/6g3gzasfgy.jpg
1677017053373
0
0.25
1719447568553
False
old
0
0.49999999999999994
w1ssli39ws
{"NO": 1098.9304626378225, "YES": 909.975684539353}
0.5470292697257112
-2024-ncaaf-will-texas-defeat-michi
200
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Texas defeat Michigan?
1725732000000
5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2
cpmm-1
0
9.571715463210952
False
basic
public
1719363486278
JKS
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: Saturday, September 7, 2024 - 10:00 AM EDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, Michigan", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.0470292697257112, "month": 0.0470292697257112}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.603704976775171, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
jks
1719867784972
0
https://firebasestorage.…638-cbc4a0a8faa6
3
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/d40y9hnmhu.jpg
1680049506454
0
0.25
0.5
1719867780381
0
0.49999999999999994
w7keasvydk
{"NO": 78.1669899422616, "YES": 127.93124063478136}
0.37927055328619846
will-barack-obama-have-at-least-1-o
216.59814336780192
Will Barack Obama have at least 1 of Kendrick Lamar's diss tracks against Drake on his Favourite Music of 2024 playlist
1736657940000
wWe19tgyZQeK8en8FaEAiiQlu693
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719364057462
Glimpse of an Uchiha
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0.02927055328619843, "week": 0.17986202909753551, "month": -0.12072944671380154}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.6713736011066365, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
5
100
ItachisEyes
1720171659699
0
https://firebasestorage.…cfd-a4ba97859690
6
3
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…s/35i278cxpq.jpg
1668212577494
0
0.25
0.5
1720171656143
0
0.5000000000000001
6bqwmcr4qz
{"NO": 913.7048650541797, "YES": 1094.445305312786}
0.45499827579488794
will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru
225
Will Lincoln appear in Biden vs Trump epic rap battles of History 2024
1729897140000
EpITnFh5oeNb4OgEtquAgc3pqF72
cpmm-1
0
9.571598181836105
False
basic
public
1719365124622
Dave793
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Abraham Lincoln makes an appearance in the presidential epic rap battle 2024 just as he did in the 2012 and 2016 battles it will be resolved as yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.02251799141245131, "month": -0.04500172420511206}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.4625664881174965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Dave793
1719653391347
0
https://firebasestorage.…276-ae457c19e568
4
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…3/8n3b380f1y.jpg
1684898947005
0
0.25
0.5
1719653387860
1719572763822
0
0.5
p3ureomfbb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
mang0-stocks
0
Mang0 stocks
1735718340000
Bt3D7JBUmZRMSeA19Zxa8YI2ZM53
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1719365250758
Edwin Meza
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The stocks from the GOAT himself ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
EdwinMeza
1719365250785
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2xUO00dMTzqQqFVpWY4CsTxMWFWAlAI_71dA3oy2xI5VP5hiL=s96-c
0
0
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…a/cjdqb9dms6.jpg
1719238307004
0
0.25
0.5
0
0.5000000000000001
ly7tsdpvhd
{"NO": 11410.976357036867, "YES": 8763.491998503043}
0.5656147243108597
will-winner-match-49-beat-winner-ma
1480
Will [Winner Match 49] beat [Winner Match 50]? ⚽|🏆 Euro 2024 Final
1721015940000
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
cpmm-1
0
2.734555891114829
False
plus
public
1719365412208
The Official
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner after regular time, and if applicable, extra-time and penalty shoot-out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FC...
BINARY
{"day": -0.0005395765264716301, "week": 0.06561472431085968, "month": 0.06561472431085968}
0
{"creatorFee": 46.86600355809216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
10
10000
10thOfficial
1720200583442
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
4
2
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…l/4mljn7bk2o.jpg
1682437068858
0
0.25
0.5
1720200580366
1720036748384
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
0
18cbshvbk3
on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born
150
(N/A) On what day will our baby be born?
1719365733572
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
plus
MKT
public
1719365580422
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rachel's due date is July 1st; here you can ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gamble", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " predict exactly which day our baby will come out! Resolves to the day, in Pacific Time, when she decides t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.0953897483175146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1719365733572
10000
Austin
1719365790790
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "v4s1wpih07", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Jun 26", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.11111111111111, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 111.11111111111111, "contractId": "18cbshvbk3", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "createdTime": 1719365580422, "prob...
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…n/a736dxvpni.jpg
1639011767273
0
0.25
1719365595482
1719365742089
0.5
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
False
0
suqx2ukd3n
on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu
322104.92861123965
On what day will our baby be born?
1720421940000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
7.796482153300232
False
plus
public
1719365805663
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rachel's due date is July 1st; here you can ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gamble", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " predict exactly which day our baby will come out! Resolves to the day, in Pacific Time, when she decides t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1490.5028053046983, "platformFee": 437.59689212426076, "liquidityFee": 0}
71135.31305835774
19000
Austin
1720248170597
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
57
32
ONLY_CREATOR
[{"id": "h4efdtf49u", "prob": 0.0011372137530270097, "text": "Jun 26", "index": 0, "poolNo": 45.36516146874602, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39846.13399424763, "textFts": "'26':2 'jun':1", "contractId": "suqx2ukd3n", "createdTime": 1719365805663, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00171...
0.13333333333333333
https://firebasestorage.…086-7074bfb5965e
1639011767273
0
0.25
1720248167268
1720237106463
True
old
0
0.49999999999999994
bczq099bmu
{"NO": 977.3712143748709, "YES": 1023.152703182079}
0.4885576252287159
will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide
26
Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025?
1750478340000
FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1
cpmm-1
0
9.57041467148711
False
basic
public
1719366605389
Erick Zhao
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "uh so like I have my 3 IM norms, need 2400 FIDE rating (at 2359 FIDE)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm self-studying hrk and that stuff, currently on chapter 9 after two months. Taking AP Phys C mechanics and e&m...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011442374771284125}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.870235191029254, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ErickZhao
1719974761122
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c
2
1
0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…o/l3bx9c8p0a.jpg
1714481298497
0
0.25
0.5
1719514856779
0