p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.14 | y6htk8qlv8 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo | 0 | Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719284285911 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiMz82FwsHPugqxFD/on-dwarksh-s-podcast-with-leopold-aschenbrenner", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719284285948 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 64gdi0vmdv | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-on-dwarkshs-podcast-with-leopo-rgagjv6d7u | 0 | Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719284286432 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiMz82FwsHPugqxFD/on-dwarksh-s-podcast-with-leopold-aschenbrenner", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719284286458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | 6mmjztmt0p | {"NO": 758.6612681072784, "YES": 13.181113127006142} | 1 | will-bronny-james-lebron-james-jr-b | 749.4465832385403 | Will Bronny James (LeBron James Jr.) be drafted at the 55th pick by the Los Angeles Lakers? | 1719526340083 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719284328186 | Chinmay The Math Guy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only resolves to yes if Bronny is taken at the exact pick #55 to the Los Angeles Lakers (i.e. no trade ups or at 55 by another team)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.146812935358029, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719526340083 | 100 | ChinmayTheMathGuy | 1719526340083 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | 8 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677787177859 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719526102750 | 0.98 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dmtvmmvhf6 | when-will-most-end-users-of-synapse | 1127 | When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds? | 1830326340000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1.092040176097314 | False | premium | public | 1719284337177 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fintechbusinessweekly.substack.com/p/is-synapses-meltdown-fintechs-ftx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.60558924653531, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100000 | JonathanRay | 1720095619946 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e3rwum06lz", "prob": 0.32220082744821654, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22385.79558270222, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47091.97627776894, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 5.206075307467861e-05, "week": 5.206075307467861e-05, "month": 0.155324894091339}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 5.206075307467861e-05, "probChangeWeek": 5.206075307467861e-05, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.155324894091339}, {"id": "ob54cnz9sz", "prob": 0.17129966854557266, "text": "2025", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9395.636235691903, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45453.484696449785, "textFts": "'2025':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 4.2832962938554875e-05, "week": 4.2832962938554875e-05, "month": 0.004460754051468091}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 4.2832962938554875e-05, "probChangeWeek": 4.2832962938554875e-05, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.004460754051468091}, {"id": "yqiuz4v2qy", "prob": 0.12691114957037242, "text": "2026", "index": 2, "poolNo": 6989.8960079121925, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48087.18769651273, "textFts": "'2026':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 3.32893187244554e-05, "week": 3.32893187244554e-05, "month": -0.03988939928797397}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 3.32893187244554e-05, "probChangeWeek": 3.32893187244554e-05, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.03988939928797397}, {"id": "usmom7n2g1", "prob": 0.1257660552950936, "text": "2027", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6953.731759071823, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48337.27456815853, "textFts": "'2027':1", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00019476167218682172, "week": -0.00019476167218682172, "month": -0.04011745027888525}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00019476167218682172, "probChangeWeek": -0.00019476167218682172, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.04011745027888525}, {"id": "sjaztlcwym", "prob": 0.12691114957037242, "text": "later or never", "index": 4, "poolNo": 6989.8960079121925, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48087.18769651273, "textFts": "'later':1 'never':3", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 3.32893187244554e-05, "week": 3.32893187244554e-05, "month": -0.03988939928797397}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 3.32893187244554e-05, "probChangeWeek": 3.32893187244554e-05, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.03988939928797397}, {"id": "pl94cnxxvr", "prob": 0.12691114957037242, "text": "Other", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6989.8960079121925, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48087.18769651273, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dmtvmmvhf6", "createdTime": 1719284337177, "probChanges": {"day": 3.32893187244554e-05, "week": 3.32893187244554e-05, "month": -0.03988939928797397}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 3.32893187244554e-05, "probChangeWeek": 3.32893187244554e-05, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.03988939928797397}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720095616320 | 1720031542471 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | mn8uvoeyvm | {"NO": 970.8772359143396, "YES": 1029.996340431483} | 0.48522667668361313 | will-anthropic-add-voice-support-to | 2357.4144392090116 | Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24) | 1727733540000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.7220146021489775 | False | basic | public | 1719287034537 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like Claude 3 and would commit exclusively to it if Anthropic added voice support like the one chatgpt has. If it happens before October 2024, I will resolve the market as yes. Slow and partial rollouts count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PS: If Anthropic only adds a transcription feature like ChatGPT's, then the market will resolve 50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbhZCoctjtn.png?alt=media&token=d7376642-74c3-4864-8e63-4db9e34691ee", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.024018170150715556, "week": -0.024018170150715556, "month": -0.014773323316386866} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.91935980430631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | Soli | 1720167619729 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720167616669 | 1719379431743 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7g257bprnb | how-do-you-rate-manifolds-leadershi | 0 | How do you rate Manifold's leadership and direction for Q2 2024? [POLL INDEX] | 1720670340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719287999114 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "24mQqMb8htfXdywFa9n3", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719475604487 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719475603162 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8v92xsd9pr | how-much-will-despicable-me-4-2024-edv7je2umy | 3989.803391581485 | How much will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1720205940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719288372740 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Despicable Me 4\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt7510222/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for trading on Friday, July 5th, at 4PM PT. It will resolve when the actuals are posted, typically between Monday & Wednesday.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. Typically, this is the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3-day (FSS) weekend ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(+ previews, if there are). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that \"Despicable Me 4\" will be releasing on a Wednesday, and I would expect that the Wednesday & Thursday gross will be excluded.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Despicable Me 3\" was $72,434,025", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt3469046/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.817271902574255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1010.9317729264551 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720194418904 | 0 | 14 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "gn49sa3d0i", "prob": 0.9829536681264905, "text": ">$56 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1898.4145894316755, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.92220800868927, "textFts": "'56':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0022525153696080213, "week": 0.018177115188973025, "month": 0.4690641639104145}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0022525153696080213, "probChangeWeek": 0.018177115188973025, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4690641639104145}, {"id": "6sz5zfn679", "prob": 0.9145922385695874, "text": ">$64 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 818.0975554393459, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.39675682252269, "textFts": "'64':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.03207837845389938, "month": 0.3920783784538977}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.03207837845389938, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.3920783784538977}, {"id": "zy3xzc9ll0", "prob": 0.37000000000000005, "text": ">$72 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 191.5890111837034, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.21912715063, "textFts": "'72':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13934906149320897, "week": -0.09423451788749643, "month": -0.08423451788749642}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13934906149320897, "probChangeWeek": -0.09423451788749643, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.08423451788749642}, {"id": "fvi8xqkt5f", "prob": 0.07541667750004002, "text": ">$80 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 71.40040557923469, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 875.3451677615797, "textFts": "'80':1 'million':2", "contractId": "8v92xsd9pr", "createdTime": 1719288372740, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14355740549527307, "week": -0.19223418996375885, "month": -0.3422341899637589}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.14355740549527307, "probChangeWeek": -0.19223418996375885, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.3422341899637589}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720194415806 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | d3igquix1f | {"NO": 1047.2251548614176, "YES": 753.1764629251695} | 0.18456947444460733 | will-sae-feature-geometry-is-outsid | 50 | Will "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.867769582210448 | False | public | 1719288685000 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposition hypothesis", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MFBTjb2qf3ziWmzz6/sae-feature-geometry-is-outside-the-superposition-hypothesis", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04456947444460732} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.774845138582333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719391773319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719391770229 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xyo1l90sgo | which-canadian-nhl-team-will-win-th | 483.0553150082214 | Which Canadian NHL team will win the Stanley Cup next? | 4891467540000 | WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719289734530 | constantine+- | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The legend continues. Will it ever end? Who will end it?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.390777033828392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | constantine | 1719788828893 | 0 | 5 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "576xqxpczy", "prob": 0.08006369011562099, "text": "Calgary Flames", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.75192988173143, "userId": "WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 640.5928151733535, "textFts": "'calgari':1 'flame':2", "contractId": "xyo1l90sgo", "createdTime": 1719289734530, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0007158349572145284, "week": -0.03501933150378725, "month": -0.03501933150378725}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0007158349572145284, "probChangeWeek": -0.03501933150378725, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.03501933150378725}, {"id": "9fweyjmihu", "prob": 0.2298827899884692, "text": "Edmonton Oilers", "index": 1, "poolNo": 103.25136447490594, "userId": "WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 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0.002030072828919899, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.002030072828919899}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680629538480 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719788825703 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | dume7pk1i2 | {"NO": 1284.413109802737, "YES": 778.565706288675} | 0.6226012113087174 | will-dragon-make-a-move-during-elba | 466 | Will dragon make a move during elbaf? | 1721966340000 | ahFJCyJUKbN8j1dlXP1qMOjxY9D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580086564303285 | False | basic | public | 1719290589485 | JT | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Moneky D. Dragon make a move on the world government during the elbaf arc?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.029806345289005498, "month": 0.12260121130871737} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.521536516420129, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JT7otmw | 1719773332626 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719290105382 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719773329530 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | th3kd7ydpu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-sssb-relationship-result-i | 110.61722620214888 | Will the SSSB relationship result in a breakup before 1/1/2025? | 1735718340000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719290914540 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you don't know me, this is your average high school cis-het relationship. These two have been together for somewhere in the ballpark of 1-2 months. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve yes if they indisputably break up in this time frame. Open relationships and temporary breaks do not count as breakups.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this market no later than Jan 31, 2025. I reserve the right to bet no (but not yes) on this market before Dec 1, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.67423121929301, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | stardust2 | 1719425867969 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 4 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425864911 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000019 | h3zr6f4bg5 | {"NO": 4234.707251014689, "YES": 236.1438325542784} | 0.9471814587110405 | will-assange-survive-the-next-six-m | 6096.390281874888 | Will Assange survive the next six months? | 1735685940000 | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.904985290728838 | False | basic | public | 1719292036797 | Schwabilismus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Surprisingly Julian Assange is free! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Is that good news? I hope so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some of the more cynical voices say that he will be killed/disappeared as soon as the world stops watching too closely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this happen? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Assange survive until years end?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"NO\" if Assange dies of --any-- causes soon.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"NO\" if Assange disappears, as reported by mainstream Media or his family", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if Assange is alive by years end.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"EPIC YES\" If Assange is alive, free and well by years end and doesn't serve a prison sentence.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market conditions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Epistemic status:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Very uninformed. I haven't watched closely how the Assange situation developed over the last few hundred years of his unofficial imprisonment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market motivation:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I made this market to register a cynical -but still uninformed- prediction. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is more of a reminder to myself. Maybe I'll post some news if I find some", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.44718145871104054} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.9628255317599, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Schwabilismus | 1719421275863 | 0 | 32 | 15 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681912243026 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719421272584 | 1719292693069 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
py0ul0f3ql | who-will-win-between-south-africa-a | 0 | Who will win between South Africa and Afghanistan in the T20 world cup semi final? | 1719611940000 | BA6lDWuWsresZahapq9NxZPIkoA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719292474383 | Arnold de Wit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South Africa is playing Afghanistan in the 2024 ICC T20 world cup semi final. Who wil win?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719611943494 | ArnolddeWit | 1719292474457 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMxIIAJOdfUjbbipCXtlijUNeuq_PzP4VUYPCoV3wy_t1YfyU=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718051425811 | 0 | 0.25 | ["fx38u6f9ev"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aa25n3t92w | we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse | 0 | We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it? | 1719903540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719293229441 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New users & many returning users seemed to prefer the denser search page as opposed to the feed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We made the browse/search the default now, and the feed page is now called \"Explore\". We plan to continue supporting the feed use case.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What do you think of the change?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719903541875 | JamesGrugett | 1719898632470 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719898631455 | ["iurypvnxv9"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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c7un3xdrxs | what-countries-will-be-newly-classi | 575 | What countries will be newly classified as full democracies by the EIU in the 2024 report? | 1740783540000 | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719299984676 | Alex B. Goode | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question pertains to the classification of countries according to the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Democracy Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2023/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The Democracy Index categorizes countries into four types of regimes based on their scores: full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, and authoritarian regimes. 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0.5000000000000001 | i37agzqvba | {"NO": 13.251119466373567, "YES": 754.6532219693801} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-70000-before-june | 988.213597210149 | Will Bitcoin hit $70,000 before June 30? | 1719788340000 | lYMqH4vS4QUpQrIQttMQGbis4is2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719301132873 | Courage Afemije | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market dip is upon us. But will Bitcoin retrace back to $70,000?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0482192638853133, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.939602308193137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720035419934 | 100 | CourageAfemije | 1719788340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL5aVxROCHO1lAQgB1QxNUhg12O1Q-n4NHqY6CvbVpHoRXuhw0=s96-c | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714505098220 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719776582204 | 1720031727324 | 0.02 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | oi7wtf3b4m | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066178} | 0 | will-anyone-at-the-june-27th-debate | 1174.9021300283512 | Will anyone at the June 27th debate say "fuck," or any variant of it? | 1719652792354 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719301259383 | Destiny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this happens, the market will resolve yes. If it does not happen or the debate does not happen, this will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.018667123617371648, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.238060360635086, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719652792354 | 100 | Destiny3a152 | 1719652792354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714885629354 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719652751897 | 0.01 | szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | lut356hgas | {"NO": 50.08041790292533, "YES": 199.67884492065872} | 0.20051475703745697 | will-i-ever-beat-philinesgrosserbru | 102 | Will I ever beat @philinesgrosserbruder twice in a row in chess again? | 1769821140000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719301934930 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My colleague ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "rKERNYnck1W24L2kz3jafeaNQcC2", "label": "philinesgrosserbruder"}}, {"text": " is very bad at chess, but I'm even worse. He has been practicing regularly at chess.com for some time and has only won against me since then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.29948524296254303} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3211550793412825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719477824884 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719475640985 | 1719477822908 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | d69sh8g863 | {"NO": 67.27469601303663, "YES": 148.64429856453268} | 0.3115737739732206 | will-the-memecoin-slerf-reach-1b-ma | 50 | Will the memecoin $Slerf reach 1B Market cap by the end of 2024 | 1735660740000 | NkFUFLBJStWzbyiQ0LCGnYtOgR22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719302547879 | Yu Matthew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resloved yes immediately if the marketcap of slerf reaches 1 billion USD on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/slerf/.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1884262260267794} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3557014354673005, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | YuMatthew | 1719342569384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcv7-YdT2KrY1LeMjA_TiGixe1Z2noF3pqHIssxSojg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691211556648 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719342566303 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lzdrs5vfvm | do-you-bet-to-earn-mana-in-long-ter | 0 | Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets? | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719303192558 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Loans have been removed for a while. How does this change betting on long term markets? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A long term market is a market resolving in 2026 or later. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't count interest rate markets (markets where the outcome is nearly guaranteed, but sitting at 4% such as LK-99. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only count serious bets where you try to earn mana", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | nikki | 1719305659351 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719305658313 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 2ect3zato0 | {"NO": 617.5049023684134, "YES": 16.194203417082917} | 1 | will-bill-ackman-endorse-trump | 547.3221663538134 | Will Bill Ackman endorse Trump? | 1719595644125 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719308111815 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ackman has supported Trump and RFK Jr on some issues and previously donated to Democrat Dean Phillips. Forbes says he is “widely expected to endorse Trump after previously backing Kennedy” but their confidence doesn’t seem justified.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/14/these-are-the-billionaires-supporting-trumps-campaign/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/14/these-are-the-billionaires-supporting-trumps-campaign/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.172931277773216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719595644125 | 100 | CharlieBauer | 1719595644125 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719595622579 | 0.97 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | vo4lts2216 | {"NO": 730.7406680469528, "YES": 1368.4745405954964} | 0.34810183588538274 | will-julian-assange-be-guest-of-the | 874 | Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024? | 1735685940000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585676980807234 | False | basic | public | 1719309321589 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of Assange must be longer than 10 minutes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.008940626736778534, "week": 0.060552611617286145, "month": -0.15189816411461726} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.830611674559393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 15 | 1000 | itsTomekK | 1720226693372 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1658666303973 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720226690080 | 1719330102123 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xlg4u6fn9l | {"NO": 2818.543326122181, "YES": 354.7931978664396} | 1 | will-boston-bruins-trade-jake-debru | 1850 | Will Boston Bruins trade Jake DeBrusk by start of '24-'25 season? | 1719856046969 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.744710027750113 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719312985000 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3577483984107842, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.45667387781909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719856046969 | 1000 | Bruce54df | 1719856046969 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719856026557 | 0.89 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | toouubbjmj | {"NO": 134.49427781864503, "YES": 74.35260564381949} | 0.6439850841385303 | will-we-get-asi-before-2036 | 190 | Will we get ASI before 2036? | 2088370740000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719313094525 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities. ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities. 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further context on fusion drives, refer to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fusion Rocket - Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_rocket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.03599708180940092, "month": -0.12365928298680567} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4053043926669897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719768230687 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719768227619 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 010qqw8019 | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | if-trump-wins-will-the-us-use-more | 50 | If Trump wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028? | 1861981140000 | HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1719313662862 | Samuel Knoche | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Trump is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The most recent data (2023) shows U.S. electricity consumption at 4,000 TWh.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"Yes\" resolution would represent a 25% increase over 5 years (2023-2028).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An increase of 1,000 TWh is equivalent to the energy consumption of approximately 11.4 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI clusters running at 10 GW", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/racing-to-the-trillion-dollar-cluster/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " each for a full year.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden version here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kks1xvp2wr", "label": "/SamuelKnoche/if-biden-wins-will-the-us-use-more"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelKnoche | 1719313900930 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689882283507 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719313862089 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kks1xvp2wr | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | if-biden-wins-will-the-us-use-more | 0 | If Biden wins, will the US use more than 5,000 TWh in 2028? | 1861981140000 | HA04gmyFsfahbWvXO009QykPX0K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719313708925 | Samuel Knoche | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as N/A if Biden is not elected president in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The most recent data (2023) shows U.S. electricity consumption at 4,000 TWh.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"Yes\" resolution would represent a 25% increase over 5 years (2023-2028).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An increase of 1,000 TWh is equivalent to the energy consumption of approximately 11.4 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AI clusters running at 10 GW", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://situational-awareness.ai/racing-to-the-trillion-dollar-cluster/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " each for a full year.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump version here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "010qqw8019", "label": "/SamuelKnoche/if-trump-wins-will-the-us-use-more"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SamuelKnoche | 1719313964897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfpRbsz8tcB9c9P53nz9jDSiTw1WFMF1f8cwpNchbap=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689882283507 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2ba41c5wd9 | united-nations-will-it-stand-by-204 | 4676.01901316591 | United nations - will it stand by 2040? | 2209071540000 | TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719314216798 | ed | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are other feasible trajectories feel free to add them. 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0.5 | b0022qd3as | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-the-smb1-any-ntsc-world-record | 0 | Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040? | 2209093140000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719317098739 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.speedrun.com/smb1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1719317098779 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | avru6fl4fq | {"NO": 64.8351002571833, "YES": 154.23744176121753} | 0.29595265412923144 | will-a-google-model-be-on-rank-1-of | 155 | Will a Google model be on rank 1 of LMSYS for more than 1 week in 2024? | 1735685940000 | 64EqMhaqqUUntAtHS6W6DmMgMQf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719317118234 | Rick Radewagen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Current state:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F87MWfW5IeP.png?alt=media&token=3d87238b-c296-4a25-95a4-9258ab7c4bdc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Detail: multiple models can share rank 1 according to lmsys because of confidence intervals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Today, we have 3 Google models in the top 5 models.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20404734587076856} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.675731528543971, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RickRadewagen | 1719423159966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIxs8yH_S_DBwI7l_1ZYWP8hC5jqCq_N9rm0JPMG5h-RcjTA=s96-c | 7 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719315355520 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719423156877 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | a13z4d1ybx | {"NO": 989.8529636062676, "YES": 1010.251054213916} | 1 | daily-coinflip-33lwnohxb8 | 22268.742997326957 | Daily coinflip | 1719460740000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570349487466462 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719320643625 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 168)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 85 heads vs 82 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 347.74822738086516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719480672777 | 1000 | Traveel | 1719484160521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 81 | 49 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719484160521 | 1719480632683 | 0.49 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | evwmukfzrc | {"NO": 77.4512243555974, "YES": 129.11351735496862} | 0.3749489080964279 | a-reputable-news-outlet-reports-on | 30 | A reputable news outlet reports on a Twitter Julian Assange disinformation campaign by EOY 2024. | 1735685940000 | 8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719321420070 | AhmedButCooler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2024, a reputable news outlet publishes a report explicitly identifying a disinformation campaign with the intent to negatively shape public opinion about Julian Assange that originated or significantly spread on Twitter (now known as X). Otherwise, the market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"disinformation campaign\" ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "is defined as an effort to spread false or misleading information with the intent to deceive the public. The disinformation campaign might make use of bots.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"reputable news outlet\" ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "must meet ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia's criteria.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Perennial_sources", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Participants are encouraged to monitor the news for reports to determine if and when the market criteria are met.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not participate in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1250510919035721} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8864826450313626, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AhmedButCooler | 1719481259006 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714851175704 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719384992295 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | x98tsufnid | {"NO": 339.1164991562634, "YES": 29.48839123097951} | 0.9199999999999997 | will-ai-accelerators-improve-in-flo | 2183.8936568933163 | Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033? | 1988254740000 | 12ztXVGfibSZaCDnGndN40PKUIO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.679599185844382 | False | play | public | 1719321915342 | Paul | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Compared to an H100, will tensor TFLOPs/Watt improve by 100x by 2033? AI accelerators in scope for this question must be deployed significantly - with at least 100k units or $100M (in 2024 dollars) in production, and have published perf/watt numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will count peak FLOPs/watt at k bits of precision, adjusted by a factor of 2^(1 - 32/k). That is, 16 bit precision counts 1/4 as much as 32 bit, which counts 1/4 as much as 64 bit precision.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4199999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.008528396646701, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Paul | 1720057696752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivsAmgOWywNYNzHSwlvq95nQAGKHiFjTR4-W0NRg=s96-c | 16 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644631568232 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720057693705 | 1719424169185 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | zuchnit85n | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066178} | 0 | will-a-team-other-than-india-ie-sa | 2387.0094458713265 | Will a team other than India (i.e. SA, Eng or Afg) win the t20 cricket world cup? | 1719701940000 | ppnNDcLi7Eh2Vz5RVt5fswENSUB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719323920964 | Henry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if South Africa, England or Afghanistan win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO if India win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2337855614346391, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.78259898251096, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719706405623 | 100 | HenryLane | 1719701940000 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenryLane%2FPqINLecjcU.47?alt=media&token=21be9814-8db0-4e86-88bf-7715650c2327 | 12 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698681928451 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719699952407 | 1719684339781 | 0.01 | ppnNDcLi7Eh2Vz5RVt5fswENSUB3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | r40b7zggjm | {"NO": 577.350269189626, "YES": 1732.0508075688779} | 0.24999999999999997 | how-many-characters-will-i-make-art | 1426.898644765113 | How many characters* will I make art of for Art Fight 2024? | 1722549540000 | wfiuw0M6D5XAvlVRy1NUscfLcr53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.617801077831913 | False | basic | public | 1719324522728 | hecko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Resolves to a percentage equal to the total count of characters across all my attacks, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "excluding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ones that fall under \"Simple Shaped\" in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "scoring rules", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://artfight.net/info/size", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and characters registered on my account (mine and my partner's), but ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "including", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " multiple instances of the same character and \"friendly fire\" (art of characters from the team I'm on, Seafoam).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Art Fight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://artfight.net/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a yearly art game taking place throughout July, where players \"attack\" each other by making art of each other's characters.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Info:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- I have way too much free time, but I've historically used it very unwisely.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- I've been able to get into a habit of drawing for half an hour (Interference, see below) on most days, as well as a separate one of group modeling for ~2 hours every week, both of which lasted several months before breaking.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- My \"modes\" of art are:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " - (habitual doodles on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Interference", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.playinterference.com/players/50728", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", another art game, usually 10 minutes)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " - low-res doodles with more polish, ~2 hours (including some scenery)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " - vectoring in Inkscape, ~4 hours?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " - 3D modeling in Blender, ~8 hours?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " - (I might experiment with other artforms, e.g. pixel art, low-spec 3D models, or even ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gasp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " regular digital art)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- I'll try not to consciously minmax character count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Between 2024-05-17 and 2024-06-17, I've done the equivalent of 7 \"proper\" low-res doodles and 2 vector images, all motivated by specific self-indulgent ideas, as well as 2 3D models for a friend (motivated by me having promised it back in March). Before that, my latest character artwork (excluding habitual ones) was in 2024-01-14.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- I have only participated once before, in 2023, when I made 3 vector attacks (all of them as responses to others instead of proactive ones).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- A friend of mine will be participating this time. Their character was a large part of what motivated me to \"properly\" get into creating artwork on September 2023, and remains a common subject of what I draw outside of habits.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- For the record, I'm not good at drawing, so don't expect much in terms of quality.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- If, by some miracle, I'm not alone in the intersection of Manifold and Art Fight, let me know and I'll draw your goober(s).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As this is a motivational market, I will only bet YES in this market and will not sell. (As much as I'd like to have the market start below 50...)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "My profile (requires login, I'll post count updates semi-regularly): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://artfight.net/~hecko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://artfight.net/~hecko", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05000000000000013, "month": -0.25} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.181170529568288, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | hecko | 1719928220600 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718457351404 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719884191539 | 1719870149822 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999933 | m0xokegumb | {"NO": 1850.5777652242652, "YES": 540.3717794473887} | 0.7739928135867048 | will-we-have-agi-before-a-mars-colo | 3282.4065383832344 | Will we have AGI before a Mars colony? | 2556104340000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.939597638380135 | False | basic | public | 1719324883920 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever is first:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. This market resolves (YES)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: There are 100 people alive on Mars (NO)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.027308761525611014, "week": -0.027308761525611014, "month": 0.2739928135867048} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.79020833182837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 155.25463439618332 | 1000 | Daniel_MC | 1720218451650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678868464369 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720218448365 | 1719607576667 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999895 | 5j8sm44ir9 | {"NO": 994.9874371066201, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-jullian-assange-arrive-free-in | 909.6644685874331 | Will Julian Assange arrive free in Australia on schedule? | 1719462146344 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719325148688 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a risk the US arrests him or pulls some shanigins. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the deal is finalised on 26th June and Assange is free to travel to Australia, resolves YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he's arrested or delayed resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BBC: \"The deal - which will see him plead guilty to one charge of the Espionage Act - is expected to be finalised in a court in the Northern Mariana Islands on Wednesday, 26 June.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgggyvp0j9o?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR34Os4zquSwiIzGWvTevML5LR_miPLyHnbBDUZIDTQQrfYgPYwIegWyB8M_aem_GATHrFSRmHoVCJ6hHSWW4g", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgggyvp0j9o?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR34Os4zquSwiIzGWvTevML5LR_miPLyHnbBDUZIDTQQrfYgPYwIegWyB8M_aem_GATHrFSRmHoVCJ6hHSWW4g", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1805539379924132110"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.230448242272892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719462146344 | 100 | Daniel_MC | 1719462146344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 5 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678868464369 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719434143398 | 1719461662734 | 0.99 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | any8zeit1o | {"NO": 43.97848514648861, "YES": 227.3839120808925} | 0.16206550942884687 | f1-the-races-from-jun30-to-sep1-are | 130 | F1: The races from Jun30 to Sep1 are all in Europe. Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium for any of these races? | 1725249540000 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719325833618 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are six Formula 1 races from June 30 to September 1, in Austria, Great Britain, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, and Italy.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium for any of these races?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Fernando Alonso finishes 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any Grand Prix from June 30 to September 1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves NO if after the September 1 race in Italy, Alonso has had no podium finishes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: This question will end in one of two ways.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. If Alonso has a podium finish, the question will resolve YES after that race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2. If Alonso has no podium finishes, the question will resolve NO on September 1.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.04156119344900819, "week": -0.088052617522179, "month": -0.3379344905711531} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6160879191075175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 30 | 100 | StefanXJ7 | 1720188795418 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720188792298 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7a7ork2faq | how-many-seats-will-the-presidentia | 548.0105923694856 | How many seats will the presidential coalition (Renaissance-Ensemble) obtain in the 2024 French legislative elections ? | 1720475940000 | A1E4OmLRvqNexVOX7txpYSHslxo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719326725492 | Antoine Chapel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After suffering a loss in the European elections, French president Emmanuel Macron has chosen to call for new legislative (parliamentary) elections. These elections are typically held right after the presidential election and are favorable to the president, but in 2022, the presidential party did not obtain an absolute majority. These elections are in two rounds and will be held on June 30th 2024 and July 7th 2024. There are 577 members of parliament in total. 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0.5 | e0akv4svcr | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-duke-energy-duk-choose-to-buil | 0 | Will Duke Energy ($DUK) choose to build an a BWRX-300 at Belews Creek? | 1735707540000 | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719327407244 | Bernie B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently engaged in pre-application activities with Duke regarding a future ESP that would be at the Belews Creek, NC site for a small modular light water reactor (SMR) rated at approximately 300MWe gross electrical output. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Duke Energy Belews Creek | ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/smr/licensing-activities/pre-application-activities/duke-energy-belews-creek.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "NRC.gov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://NRC.gov", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is asking if Duke energy will choose the BWRX-300 as the reactor plant at the Belews Creek site. This will resolve to NO if a different design is chosen for that site, or if the application/pre-application process is terminated and Duke withdraws plans to build any nuclear plant at this site. I will resolve this to YES if any Duke energy official communications specify the intent to build the GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) BWRX-300 plant ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "GEH BWRX-300 | ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/smr/licensing-activities/pre-application-activities/bwrx-300.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "NRC.gov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://NRC.gov", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (most likely from the NRC public meetings/application process document submittals).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I plan on extending the close date as needed until a design is chosen or the application/pre-application process is terminated. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BernieB | 1719327407275 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704591987823 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kxyvfcpege | {"NO": 1669.5341826127158, "YES": 598.9694673007912} | 0.7359627491348192 | will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only | 4249.00598151631 | Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | asgRXgA7gxY0eZwwOuZCj9t6h5h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.603933713672903 | False | basic | public | 1719327514493 | Jarom Gordon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, ASML is “the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines that are required to manufacture the most advanced chips” (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves “no” if, by the end of 2026, it has been credibly reported that at least one non-ASML supplier has manufactured their own EUV machines and that these machines have been successfully employed in commercial chip production. The question resolves “yes” otherwise. If I think the criteria for resolving “no” might be ambiguous or controversial, the question will only resolve “no” if, for one continuous week before the end of 2026, the ASML Wikipedia article no longer claims that the company is the world’s sole EUV supplier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/JaromGordon/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.05403725086518074, "month": 0.23596274913481918} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.57148443114296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JaromGordon | 1719992775174 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715209618340 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719992771958 | 1719335832074 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 5h4cayle5a | {"NO": 1538.615191258186, "YES": 649.9350881764404} | 0.7030294006567952 | will-argentinas-inflation-in-june-2 | 2973.8383897528115 | Will Argentina's inflation in June 2024 be >270%? (May = 276%) | 1720335540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599393323353972 | False | basic | public | 1719330428979 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "OECD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?fs[0]=Topic%2C1%7CEconomy%23ECO%23%7CPrices%23ECO_PRI%23&pg=0&fc=Topic&bp=true&snb=16&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_PRICES%40DF_PRICES_ALL&df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[vs]=1.0&pd=2024-01%2C&dq=ARG.M.N.CPI.PA._T.N.GY&ly[rw]=REF_AREA&ly[cl]=TIME_PERIOD&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false&vw=tb", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Here are the (equivalent) recent monthly values:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-Jan: 254.25%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-Feb: 276.22%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-Mar: 287.87%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-Apr: 289.40%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024-May: 276.41%", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question is based on an existing ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kalshi market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/arginflationm/argentina-inflation", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "—more details on resolution can be found there.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close on July 6th, and I expect the official OECD numbers within the ~10 days after that.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.3430294006567951, "week": 0.38298441894382806, "month": 0.2030294006567952} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 90.01886540139179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1893.6239650717662 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720247897690 | 0 | 25 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247894633 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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v9qmefyvbf | how-many-times-will-538s-election-m | 5039.690734636165 | How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election? | 1730869140000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719343678644 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question concerns ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538's election forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " model. Since launching on 11 June with Biden in the lead, the predicted winner has switched twice (on 14 June & 21 June). ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Between today (25 June) and the election (5 Nov) inclusive, how many times will the predicted winner switch under the model? ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". Resolution is according to the \"win probability\" version of the model:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fj2c0e1BbLV.png?alt=media&token=d93251b2-df3b-4ad3-a3af-de08cd7b7e29", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ties do not count as switches. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 99.88853570596122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | burkh4rt | 1720061682458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 41 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7jci621k8y", "prob": 0.11890322632692996, "text": "0 times", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.83855093885408, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 680.5420965495473, "textFts": "'0':1 'time':2", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.07460990791520031, "month": -0.06999999999999312}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.07460990791520031, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.06999999999999312}, {"id": "bp2qn5tl30", "prob": 0.43923203199713595, "text": "1-3 times", "index": 1, "poolNo": 221.25618096954724, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 282.4779842358492, "textFts": "'-3':2 '1':1 'time':3", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.05434511667873698, "month": 0.18582780706938995}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.05434511667873698, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.18582780706938995}, {"id": "b9rtde6taq", "prob": 0.2895482253772313, "text": "4-7 times", "index": 2, "poolNo": 159.60010058636678, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 391.6037632205533, "textFts": "'-7':2 '4':1 'time':3", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.012511933569796352, "month": 0.11962447218699979}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.012511933569796352, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.11962447218699979}, {"id": "rkqpoagxlx", "prob": 0.06260292711527661, "text": "8-10 times", "index": 3, "poolNo": 64.60639853651898, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 967.3964408443487, "textFts": "'-10':2 '8':1 'time':3", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.002840192308214043, "month": -0.1327820944031884}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.002840192308214043, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.1327820944031884}, {"id": "te1uu5plmu", "prob": 0.08971358918342615, "text": "more than 10 times", "index": 4, "poolNo": 78.4838131047, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 796.342551764439, "textFts": "'10':3 'time':4", "contractId": "v9qmefyvbf", "createdTime": 1719343678644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.010593049974881086, "month": -0.10267018485320824}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.010593049974881086, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.10267018485320824}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720061679386 | 1719522040041 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sd7hwkc0i5 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay-tk6p7j355a | 400 | To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾 | 1723442400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719344247105 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The anticipated question resolution time is no later than 10:00 PM CT on the day of the final if not earlier.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.897315505011942, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719937261691 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5l4kn1mmdz", "prob": 0.0717240943077831, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 62.155419164067695, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 804.4350866336881, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07747294244273427, "week": -0.09494257235888355, "month": -0.09494257235888355}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.07747294244273427, "probChangeWeek": -0.09494257235888355, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.09494257235888355}, {"id": "cjdrqpater", "prob": 0.16229761411997323, "text": "SF", "index": 1, "poolNo": 98.4229082667738, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 508.0118122955252, "textFts": "'sf':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.013207056763839264, "week": -0.004369052546693425, "month": -0.004369052546693425}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.013207056763839264, "probChangeWeek": -0.004369052546693425, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.004369052546693425}, {"id": "lygtfbbgyx", "prob": 0.19149457289306093, "text": "QF", "index": 2, "poolNo": 108.82326894599203, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 459.46055916418516, "textFts": "'qf':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.016066471419723755, "week": 0.024827906226394275, "month": 0.024827906226394275}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.016066471419723755, "probChangeWeek": 0.024827906226394275, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.024827906226394275}, {"id": "iyx3huef39", "prob": 0.19149457289306093, "text": "R16", "index": 3, "poolNo": 108.82326894599203, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 459.46055916418516, "textFts": "'r16':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.016066471419723755, "week": 0.024827906226394275, "month": 0.024827906226394275}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.016066471419723755, "probChangeWeek": 0.024827906226394275, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.024827906226394275}, {"id": "6376ukjhfv", "prob": 0.19149457289306093, "text": "R32", "index": 4, "poolNo": 108.82326894599203, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 459.46055916418516, "textFts": "'r32':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.016066471419723755, "week": 0.024827906226394275, "month": 0.024827906226394275}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.016066471419723755, "probChangeWeek": 0.024827906226394275, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.024827906226394275}, {"id": "442ad76yp9", "prob": 0.19149457289306093, "text": "R64 Or No Entry", "index": 5, "poolNo": 108.82326894599203, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 459.46055916418516, "textFts": "'entri':4 'r64':1", "contractId": "sd7hwkc0i5", "createdTime": 1719344247105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.016066471419723755, "week": 0.024827906226394275, "month": 0.024827906226394275}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.016066471419723755, "probChangeWeek": 0.024827906226394275, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.024827906226394275}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719937257899 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bgp4fn4gdb | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-coc-zg0ae4pfin | 5 | To which is the last round that Coco Gauff will advance in the 2024 Olympics tournament? 🎾 | 1723442400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719344316223 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of the scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The anticipated question resolution time is no later than 10:00 PM CT on the day of the final if not earlier.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22860123179197464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1719544293846 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ltylay5x0x", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "F", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'f':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "hr4us6q79b", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "SF", "index": 1, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'sf':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "jnn3v79md7", "prob": 0.17769228790615907, "text": "QF", "index": 2, "poolNo": 103.94464254917035, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 481.02527243140815, "textFts": "'qf':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "32yq6b3b2i", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "R16", "index": 3, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'r16':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "97ekljd898", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "R32", "index": 4, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'r32':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "v5ngnnuhs6", "prob": 0.16446154241876826, "text": "R64 Or No Entry", "index": 5, "poolNo": 99.20509095641839, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 504.00639239336425, "textFts": "'entri':4 'r64':1", "contractId": "bgp4fn4gdb", "createdTime": 1719344316223, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719544289835 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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73muasxcc9 | what-will-be-the-primary-cause-of-a | 3849.1700223818075 | What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? | 1893538740000 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719347096589 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown. Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.46211896982122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719799283448 | 0 | 27 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1406xmeg56", "prob": 0.23123927995055807, "text": "AI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.40794835852324, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 303.8879908870385, "textFts": "'ai':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.26876072004944196, "month": -0.26876072004944196}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.26876072004944196, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.26876072004944196}, {"id": "x278bo7n6j", "prob": 0.5988823402066956, "text": "Global Pandemic", "index": 1, "poolNo": 203.64962354259322, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 136.39984839926848, "textFts": "'global':1 'pandem':2", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.021148935555966974, "month": -0.021148935555966974}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.021148935555966974, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.021148935555966974}, {"id": "pk9d1fsqoi", "prob": 0.5098002145855717, "text": "Major Economic Collapse", "index": 2, "poolNo": 169.96605650802223, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 163.43132475081376, "textFts": "'collaps':3 'econom':2 'major':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.009800214585571676, "month": 0.009800214585571676}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.009800214585571676, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0.009800214585571676}, {"id": "0f2siem2y5", "prob": 0.06578829438735025, "text": "Nuclear Conflict", "index": 3, "poolNo": 44.228316711706725, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 628.0541481793565, "textFts": "'conflict':2 'nuclear':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.43421170561264977, "month": -0.43421170561264977}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.43421170561264977, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.43421170561264977}, {"id": "eysb4rdl23", "prob": 0.3, "text": "Climate Change", "index": 4, "poolNo": 109.1089451179962, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 254.5875386086578, "textFts": "'chang':2 'climat':1", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.2, "month": -0.2}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.2, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.2}, {"id": "euqo1ok6b7", "prob": 0.02657656341576539, "text": "Alien Invasion", "index": 5, "poolNo": 27.538942643786896, "userId": "dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1008.6726326816602, "textFts": "'alien':1 'invas':2", "contractId": "73muasxcc9", "createdTime": 1719347096589, "probChanges": {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.47342343658423464, "month": -0.47342343658423464}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.47342343658423464, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.47342343658423464}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719799280344 | 1719514242109 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 9y1gxuntth | {"NO": 335.02667852887726, "YES": 2984.8369222148544} | 0.10091579619530841 | will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025 | 6424.128362574639 | Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025? | 1751432340000 | lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.529399040732146 | False | basic | public | 1719347314275 | Lorec | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to my subjective judgment. I am open to argument.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.39908420380469156} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 98.15266707810399, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorec | 1719605056444 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687730069422 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719605053369 | 1719354266070 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | i6peb3y6s2 | {"NO": 554.6169060846964, "YES": 1803.0463713403078} | 0.2352400834314385 | will-at-least-3-of-the-10-technolog | 950 | Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years? | 1862027940000 | lVWUdzrlFuUsrMYmijD9WrgTs5A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62510551711026 | False | basic | public | 1719347402312 | Lorec | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/10-technologies-that-wont-exist-in-5-yrs/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.26475991656856146} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.731965121557298, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lorec | 1719425456490 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687730069422 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719425453415 | 1719420995963 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 47tcmmuxm8 | {"NO": 174.6566917879005, "YES": 5725.517813049947} | 0 | will-nvidia-stock-reach-150-by-july | 8798.67127118759 | Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st? | 1719748251935 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.883411502214734 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719347583578 | D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The final verdict will be determined by the stock's closing price on June 28th", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04279443032806563, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.08398931543847, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719748251935 | 1000 | xPMEx | 1719748251935 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719227559161 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719742540521 | 1719411547380 | 0.03 | dt4hWcQYrJMn0nXphg1EUCY1JJd2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ppaxcmhvq6 | who-will-spend-more-time-speaking-d | 3854.808215278413 | Who will spend more time speaking during the first Presidential Debate 6/27 | 1719634816663 | uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | y2p823jhix | public | 1719347941887 | wfco223 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the candidate who spends the most time speaking during the debate. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If CNN reports their estimate of the time each candidate spoke in an article posted in the 24 hours after the debate, I will use that. Otherwise, I will use my judgment to determine another reliable source of information about the answer to this question. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I, in my sole discretion, cannot find a reliable source of information to answer this question, I will use a stopwatch to answer it using the following rules. The number of words spoken does not matter for this market, only the amount of time speaking. A candidate begins speaking when words captured by the candidate's own microphone can be heard over the CNN broadcast and ends speaking when another person can be heard speaking into another microphone (other candidate, moderator, other questioner) or the debate concludes for any reason. A candidate's words spoken out of turn (i.e. not picked up by their own microphone) will not increase the amount of time they are speaking, even if they can be heard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.69355408602275, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719634816663 | 1000 | WilliamCox | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEPjKnLjm-V3FiRja4RpvT95mAX8ST3dxpphrndbTs=s96-c | 50 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y2p823jhix", "prob": 0.8186974293874225, "text": "Donald Trump", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1062.5019525126218, "userId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 235.29368525751528, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "ppaxcmhvq6", "resolverId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2", "createdTime": 1719347941888, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.19591815127253065, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.19591815127253065, "resolutionTime": 1719634816663, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.5}, {"id": "5d45rcex32", "prob": 0.18130257061257746, "text": "Joe Biden", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 235.2936852575152, "userId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1062.5019525126215, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "ppaxcmhvq6", "resolverId": "uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2", "createdTime": 1719347941888, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1959181512725307, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1959181512725307, "resolutionTime": 1719634816663, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.5}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697308518788 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719572267012 | 1719634787349 | {"y2p823jhix": 100} | uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | yla99bmh6h | {"NO": 56.76846966044067, "YES": 176.15412322746727} | 0.24372247001285977 | will-vultures-vol-2-release-before | 365.3171155815288 | Will Vultures Vol 2 (Kanye) release before the Death of Slim Shady (Eminem)? | 1725163140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719351078694 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two upcoming rap albums from Kanye and Eminem expected this summer.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.1494152639928686, "month": -0.25627752998714026} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.647583806105522, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719893844111 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719893841010 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | f4w5jabz8u | {"NO": 296.61739218495177, "YES": 33.71346476461717} | 0.8979403102818089 | will-nasa-award-a-contract-to-a-new | 200 | Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026? | 1780322340000 | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719351124372 | Nat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Almost exactly two years ago, as it prepared for the next generation of human spaceflight, NASA chose a pair of private companies to design and develop new spacesuits. These were to be new spacesuits that would allow astronauts to both perform spacewalks outside the International Space Station as well as walk on the Moon as part of the Artemis program.\" - Eric Berger", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now, it looks like one of the two, Collins Aerospace (a subsidiary of Raytheon), is likely to exit the program (this market is inspired by and heavily based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasas-commercial-spacesuit-program-just-hit-a-major-snag/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " article by Eric Berger that was published today)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market asks whether NASA will choose to provide a contract to a new company (other than Collins or Axiom) to develop a new spacesuit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some additional history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In NASA's relatively limited history of fielding bids from companies to develop key technologies, they've generally given contracts to two providers for redundancy - the examples that come to mind are the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) which contracted SpaceX and Boeing; Artemis Human Landing System (HLS) which contracted SpaceX and Blue Origin; and the Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) program that this market is about, which contracted Collins Aerospace and Axiom Space.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And in fact, when NASA initially chose only a single provider for the HLS (SpaceX) they received a significant amount of backlash and congress passed a law giving NASA $10B in additional funding and the requirement that they choose a second provider", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if NASA awards a contract to a company other than Collins or Axiom to develop a spacesuit designed for EVA use", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no such contract has been awarded by the 1st of June 2026 UTC (~2y from now and 4y after the xEVAS program begun), this market resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifications", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The contract does not have to be awarded as part of the xEVAS program, nor does the suit need to be designed for use on both the ISS and moon (it just has to at least be designed for EVA use of some kind)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Collins exiting the program is not a prerequisite for this to resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May resolve early if resolution is clear and there is no significant opposition from traders holding the loss position", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1805683293997736385"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0387340437143433, "month": 0.3979403102818089} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3826078150482393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Nat | 1719675505053 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702671407106 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719675501895 | 1719417403555 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | piug4ua4qd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | is-112 | 0 | Is 1+1=2? | 1719351403772 | ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719351397401 | DottedCalculator | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719351403772 | 100 | DottedCalculator | 1719351403772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhl-l-m_d_iYt1ungYnm52eXosXMHPxnWCzTyaJr7cLA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695606478731 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | o4jnkug7wg | {"NO": 44.72914779125641, "YES": 223.5678633241202} | 0.1667150431728868 | will-claude-35-opus-have-a-higher-c | 752.5744164885559 | Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5? | 1735793940000 | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719351942890 | Jaundiced Baboon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that if OpenAI ends of changing their naming scheme to something else, I will count it if the model appears to be the one mentioned in this blog post: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additionally, it will only be resolved yes if 3.5 Opus sustains its position for the entire first month after both models are listed in the leaderboards, so if it passes GPT-5 temporarily due to noise it will not count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.33328495682711323} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.461831040708635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JaundicedBaboon | 1719471059730 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | 22 | 14 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719339304648 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719471056647 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | bf67l37i5m | {"NO": 1254.0721590051512, "YES": 797.4022808968934} | 0.6113028437561387 | will-a-thorium-based-nuclear-reacto | 811 | Will a thorium based nuclear reactor be in service for energy in the US before 2050? | 2556255540000 | tUUM7zQaxVOYk3BIs7FQMIk0yvp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578308460558466 | False | basic | public | 1719354069868 | Lucas Thelen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any actor has a nuclear power plant using fertile thorium as it's main fuel source. Must be connected to the power grid and actively serving power before January 1st, 2051", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11130284375613875} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.36211719621255, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LucasThelen | 1719514384960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIW-tR7hjhIpn0khOJZHSae_6z5FKhoCOqQLHJuq3IY=s96-c | 12 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702662450593 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719514319510 | 1719514383657 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | iv3jf5volh | {"NO": 213.43747458109408, "YES": 46.85212856658203} | 0.8199999999999986 | will-deadpool-wolverine-july-26-202 | 439.0209820412124 | Will Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26, 2024) open to over $150 million domestically in its opening weekend? 🇺🇸 | 1722250740000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719355695473 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "→", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://imdb.com/title/tt6263850", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26, 2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " open to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "over $200 million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " domestically in its opening weekend? 🇺🇸", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "→", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadpool_&_Wolverine", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool & Wolverine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is scheduled to be released in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "United States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July 26, 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " as part of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Phase Five", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "MCU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadpool_&_Wolverine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadpool_&_Wolverine", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "→", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " There never has been an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "R-rated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " movie that has opened to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "$200M,", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Ryan Reynolds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "-", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Hugh Jackman", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " threequel busting that sphere would be an anomaly", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current record for an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "R-rated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " opening at the domestic box office is owned by the original ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool, ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "which posted ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "$132.4M", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " back in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "February 2016", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ℹ️ (The previous ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " films grossed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "$132 million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1431045", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "$125 million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5463162", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " respectively on their opening weekends)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.3199999999999986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.5703797689188495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoaoDavid | 1719835690554 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719835687439 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | l5qmwom6uu | {"NO": 952.1240744160484, "YES": 1050.2832843642932} | 0 | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-b43800qbdr | 52 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 170 and 171? | 1719944222926 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570707025495473 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719356890623 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 170”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 170”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4764098414564849, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7167156357069282, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719944226879 | 1000 | dwax | 1719944222926 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719938146191 | 0.48 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | v2k3ztz5ly | {"NO": 1008.2337201653769, "YES": 950.8761294994506} | 0.14720180344271874 | will-formal-verification-heuristic | 17 | Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.889259095791598 | False | public | 1719358063822 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Formal verification, heuristic explanations and surprise accounting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SyeQjjBoEC48MvnQC/formal-verification-heuristic-explanations-and-surprise", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007201803442718729} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6369316318538493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719490806466 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719490803136 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | t7nckwdc29 | {"NO": 108.54308019697146, "YES": 92.12931844068875} | 0.540896909260351 | would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft | 20 | Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful? | 1735649940000 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719362357591 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where successful means: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20+ people as active users for 2 months", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5+ long term friendships formed", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Interesting prop bets created involving server culture/events. Much like Manifest/LessOnline", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves based on a poll, unless…", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If probability of success is over 65% I will consider creating the server. However, if you think this is a good idea and already have the means to create the server by all means steal this idea and run.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in this case, market will resolve based on ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my own judgement and server statistics if available.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.040896909260351055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6602295454197525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | keltan | 1719409434746 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719409431672 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | bczq099bmu | {"NO": 977.3712143748709, "YES": 1023.152703182079} | 0.4885576252287159 | will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide | 26 | Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025? | 1750478340000 | FEzSSeOwKeZ3U4knZFQZRWB6Niv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57041467148711 | False | basic | public | 1719366605389 | Erick Zhao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "uh so like I have my 3 IM norms, need 2400 FIDE rating (at 2359 FIDE)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm self-studying hrk and that stuff, currently on chapter 9 after two months. Taking AP Phys C mechanics and e&m next year. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "closes either (1) I do not make USApHO or (2) I do make USApHO and then summer is here (summer equinox)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011442374771284125} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.870235191029254, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ErickZhao | 1719974761122 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFqtnjsRjBU94cfcJ4VtkWSD8XcLjIVu0MqDIkHiAZjsMygA=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714481298497 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719514856779 | 0 |
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