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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000002 | 19raelusxu | {"NO": 816.4965809277264, "YES": 1224.7448713915908} | 0 | will-the-first-us-election-debate-b | 758.0788593209144 | Will the first US election debate be boring, according to manifold? | 1719555302549 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576725540588894 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719370206534 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to a poll that will be open for 3 days after the debate.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.39999999999999997, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.8207852720618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719886024809 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719555302549 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719554638103 | 1719555400585 | 0.4 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | w0i4gycrls | {"NO": 680.3528430743631, "YES": 1469.8255621027795} | 0.31641692681696937 | if-elected-will-donald-trump-disman | 573.5234920792522 | If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised? | 1863676740000 | wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576070898355617 | False | basic | public | 1719376452887 | winthefin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve yes if Donald Trump is elected and the department of education’s authority/power is significantly limited in any way. This will also resolve yes if the department of education is merged with another department (like the department of labor). This will automatically resolve no if Donald Trump loses the election. This will also resolve no if no significant changes are made to the department of education during a 2nd Trump presidential term. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.008436531687613102, "week": -0.06387727031673535, "month": -0.18358307318303063} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.377144922285392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 28.5234920792522 | 1000 | WinstonWalker | 1720212812385 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702834154769 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720212809039 | 1719786729616 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tlt1b31a08 | {"NO": 32.922901155442695, "YES": 303.7399393445269} | 0.09779190690172314 | will-aella-and-jimmy-carter-have-se | 250 | Hi | 1719603584571 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719378373516 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4022080930982769} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.074866393199215, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719603584571 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719603618879 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719463458079 | 1719603617731 | 0.1 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | fj4f2uylvf | {"NO": 1151.1138491927852, "YES": 868.7238023426148} | 0.5699041446810118 | will-anthropic-add-web-browsing-sup | 696.4729068483692 | Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before Oct 24) | 1727819940000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573410601062815 | False | basic | public | 1719379269950 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was talking with my new friend Claude about some recent events, and it had no idea about them. So, being a good friend, I kept going back and forth copying all relevant information from the internet so that Claude would have the context it needed. Needless to say, this is annoying. With ChatGPT, I just say, “please browse X.” I wonder if this would also be possible before October 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mn8uvoeyvm", "label": "/Soli/will-anthropic-add-voice-support-to"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.025595203877538664, "week": 0.14950273510103507, "month": 0.0699041446810118} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.368319670499115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 60 | 1000 | Soli | 1720167600128 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720167597020 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | i3wnkdkq0z | {"NO": 1207.8766380389168, "YES": 827.8991152801664} | 0.5933249946953253 | a-year-from-now-will-manifold-think | 777.6789101537529 | A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up? | 1735649940000 | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575879552616847 | False | basic | public | 1719379429007 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I recently made a prediction on my Substack: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://substack.com/@philosophybear/note/c-60071121", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://substack.com/@philosophybear/note/c-60071121", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and I want to know if Manifold thinks I'm right.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the 26th of June, 2025, I will ask Manifold via poll whether the following prediction by myself has held up over the last twelve months:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Prediction: In the next twelve months, changes to LLMs that allow them to interact in more ways, such as:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Voice interaction", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anthropic’s artifacts", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Agents", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reading webpages", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spreadsheet use", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will be greatly more signficiant to the perception of LLM power and usefulness than increases in their intellectual capability.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It will also restructure the way people think about LLM’s- it’s harder to think of something as a next-word generator when it ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "acts ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "in a more extensive sense. That seems to be the way human prejudice about this stuff works (see 4E stuff, which seems to me to reflect these prejudices).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "LLM’s are already ‘smart’ enough to do most stuff the average office worker wants to accomplish with a computer. I’ve been an office worker- most of this stuff ain’t hard! But without the capacity to control said computer, talk, etc. LLM’s are ‘stuck’. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is not to say that further intellectual growth isn’t important- it’s ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "far ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "more important in the long run. Right now though, the major bottleneck to public reception and commercial deployment is available modes of interaction with computers and their users.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a majority of users say it has held up, this question will resolve yes, else it will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e143ba78-b87b-427b-af08-be5b2c87f019", "url": "https://substack.com/@philosophybear/note/c-60071121", "image": "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_680,h_680,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fnote%2Fc-60071121%2FpreviewSmall.jpg", "title": "Philosophy bear on Substack", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Prediction: In the next twelve months, changes to LLMs that allow them to interact in more ways, such as:\n\nVoice interaction\n\nAnthropic’s artifacts\n\nAgents\n\nReading webpages\n\nSpreadsheet use\n\nEtc.\n\nWill be much more important to the perception of LLM power and usefulness than increases in their intellectual capability.\n\nIt will also restructure the way people think about LLM’s- it’s harder to think of something as a next-word generator when it acts in a more extensive sense. That seems to be the way human prejudice about this stuff works (see 4E stuff, which seems to me to reflect these prejudices).\n\nLLM’s are already ‘smart’ enough to do most stuff the average office worker wants to accomplish with a computer. I’ve been an office worker- most of this stuff ain’t hard! But without the capacity to control said computer, talk, etc. LLM’s are ‘stuck’. \n\nThis is not to say that further intellectual growth isn’t important- it’s far more important in the long run. Right now though, the major bottleneck to public reception and commercial deployment is available modes of interaction with computers and their users.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.09332499469532529} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.03368802519909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PhilosophyBear | 1720030983662 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720030983662 | 1719387509918 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8233143253575412 | htge3e1ipt | {"NO": 11078.864239705514, "YES": 9474.535344751932} | 0.8449326276339627 | will-arsenii-go-on-at-least-1-date | 1456 | Will Arsenii go on at least 1 date before the end of the summer (August 31st, 2024)? | 1725173940000 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.7508026235077665 | False | plus | public | 1719379462804 | Raj Thimmiah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arsenii is:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a guy from Russia living in the Bay Area", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "an Atlas fellow", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a Minerva student", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "currently working on becoming a cracked programmer by the end of the summer", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some projects of his", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this tool for getting more likes for small accounts ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/iatskar/status/1803155219079110926", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/iatskar/status/1803155219079110926", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "directory of venues in SF: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://try-gatsby.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://try-gatsby.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "an e/acc vs pauseAI debate ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://lu.ma/5s0bb6ra", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lu.ma/5s0bb6ra", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you want to do some insider trading and go on a date with Arsenii, you can dm him on twitter: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/iatskar", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/iatskar", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " :)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e2f68567-c13d-4b17-8933-d0c16eb1292d", "url": "https://x.com/iatskar", "image": null, "title": "x.com", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A date must involve:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arsenii must go on the date with romantic intentions", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "it can't be someone he's already gone on a date with", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the date must last at least 1 hour", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "lfI3B8MU3cThgSSe4Ps81pu6yvx2", "label": "vanillymandelic"}}, {"text": " will judge if the criteria have been met and based on that I'll resolve the market", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.3449326276339627} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.610144851896397, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | raj | 1719434555519 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644725300473 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719434552417 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | v1rg6i4i2k | {"NO": 16.795042033502995, "YES": 595.4138120078437} | 0.0274335170467311 | will-women-will-be-having-more-sex | 500 | Will women will be having more sex with robots than men by 2025? | 1737100740000 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719384080698 | Forrest Taylor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "REVEALED: Women will be having more sex with ROBOTS than men by 2025 – The Sun ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/1366526/revealed-women-will-be-having-more-sex-with-robots-than-men-by-2025/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160630-_-Features-_-505999614", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will take a survey of women I know and ask them if they are having more sex with ROBOTS than men.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.4725664829532689} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.586187992156356, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TiredCliche | 1719447565694 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1683826070915 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719408129950 | 1719447564525 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 5i9ti45236 | {"NO": 947.6022357913582, "YES": 1055.2951040315816} | 0.4731157293738921 | will-any-data-center-be-attacked-to | 165 | Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030? | 1893657540000 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570783075023952 | False | basic | public | 1719384373642 | Forrest Taylor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, \"Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike.\" Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES. If not, NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0022920653120135914, "month": -0.026884270626107876} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.510879230843409, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TiredCliche | 1719881484596 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1683826070915 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719881481200 | 1719434840339 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ldauvt0n8z | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066194} | 0 | will-someone-fall-at-the-debate | 1254.993912863853 | Will someone fall at the debate? | 1719652713871 | sbVVRIu6v0RoKycX9c1YqH7uHYx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719385588238 | Manifest | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If anyone falls down at the debate, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. If no debate occurs on June 27th, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01000000000000003, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.950933022210581, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719652713871 | 100 | Manifest | 1719652713871 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKs4ivwXlfw5hVhXnylTr9DptiaPpPpJp0OCMy66sWTKu3NJA=s96-c | 6 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714011036131 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719539621924 | 1719605962206 | 0.01 | sbVVRIu6v0RoKycX9c1YqH7uHYx1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v8qg9rcc7c | what-share-of-the-mana-supply-will | 65 | What share of the mana supply will be in ... by the end of 2024 | 1735685940000 | QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719386430501 | Gaston Kessler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as a percentage of the mana supply according to", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (I'll use stats of the 31/12/24 rounded to the closest percentage point)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "loans do not count in the mana supply", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e6f26451-9622-4103-a83b-fd654a860634", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "image": "https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png", "title": "Stats", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "See site-wide usage statistics.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6157067877845441, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GastonKessler | 1719386487766 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c | 1 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "dbtpthi8j9", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Balances", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "contractId": "v8qg9rcc7c", "createdTime": 1719386430501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25}, {"id": "z1zxzs8anc", "prob": 0.5, "text": "investments", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "contractId": "v8qg9rcc7c", "createdTime": 1719386430501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25}, {"id": "j8yorez4ih", "prob": 0.5, "text": "spice/prize points balances", "index": 2, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "contractId": "v8qg9rcc7c", "createdTime": 1719386430501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25}, {"id": "o8zr1vjf1x", "prob": 0.5, "text": "AMM liquidity", "index": 3, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "contractId": "v8qg9rcc7c", "createdTime": 1719386430501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702761965647 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719386484722 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | orum3hq9i2 | {"NO": 93.38710250555846, "YES": 107.0811678668882} | 0.46584480592393057 | will-more-than-15-percent-of-the-th | 30 | Will more than 15 percent of the thiel fellowship 2025 be hardware startups | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719388233254 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.03415519407606943} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9963421554496228, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719434179954 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719408094176 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 075g8ac543 | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | will-the-milsford-scenario-play-out | 20 | Will the Milsford Scenario play out in the U.S. by Thanksgiving, 2024? | 1735707540000 | En6oeqssPgS1V2r4MrIeZUutxJm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719390190705 | Jack Hammer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/A-47jNdUh5w", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/A-47jNdUh5w", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if at least one similar incident reported by the news on or before U.S. Thanksgiving, November 28, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"NO\" otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Slackhammer | 1719408069689 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717570259157 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719408066629 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5111386608730669 | o3n9qjvfhr | {"NO": 9879.798296518797, "YES": 10115.7672810131} | 0.5052395054336787 | would-an-ai-be-capable-of-construct | 385 | Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030? | 1925099940000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.727858387034032 | False | plus | public | 1719390643262 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbezdGNWwjV.png?alt=media&token=2ef68847-7857-435d-929c-dd4f4f932a3b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Would an AI be able to construct an ultra-weak proof for the given chess board state, that does not rely on brute-force analysis by 2030. The proof can contain multiple conditions but should not outline every move to conclude the solution.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Since the line for how", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "many conditions is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "too much", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is subjective, I'll say that I'd be satisfied if the compressed size of the proof is < 7kb (excluding definitions+axioms)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bonus: 50k bounty to anyone who can manually construct a proof, its still unclear to me what would be a reasonable size for such a problem.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -6.050164829685123e-05, "month": 0.005239505433678682} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.089418330790561, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | Quillist | 1719820348264 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719672707662 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ned7qe27g3 | will-physics-be-fully-explored | 0 | Will physics be fully explored? | 1735685940000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719397706975 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "None of the words in this poll will be explained or given definition. Pick an option which alligns closer with your interpretation of the question. Imagine, that the 4 variants is an exhaustive list and that your opinion/feel thus definitely falls into one of these groups.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KongoLandwalker | 1719397707003 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | u5699fkjdv | {"NO": 97.18177485049715, "YES": 102.89995233554684} | 0.4857103955331895 | will-mysaria-take-the-place-of-nett | 3 | Will Mysaria take the place of Nettles as a dragonseed in House of the Dragon Season 2? | 1735707540000 | H9k5mJdG5cc4KT8yC4oCso7uhcY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719397810778 | Osasikemwen Ogieva | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this market as YES, if Mysaria claims a dragon (does not have to Sheepstealer) and Nettles never shows up this season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO, if the season ends without Mysaria claiming a dragon or Nettles turns up. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if we don't reach the point where dragonseeds claim dragons this season.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01428960446681049} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10004766445315458, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Sike | 1719398605097 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCBlYSnEL5ACyLhgYgvKDY6MVIariUp-MZC1cXaUMP=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702959472162 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719398602041 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 1souhmec1u | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | will-mark-friedenbach-raise-more-th | 20 | Will Mark Friedenbach raise more than $5million between 2024 and 2025? | 1767243540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719398274705 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719408044053 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719408041008 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | bbs4bg0qb4 | {"NO": 72.91469422320425, "YES": 137.14656704707983} | 1 | will-taylor-swift-sing-the-lucky-on | 192.76523288006683 | Will Taylor Swift sing "The Lucky One" during one of her Dublin Eras Tour shows? | 1719782695763 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719402277780 | Sara | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Taylor sing \"The Lucky One\" during any of her shows in Ireland on 28th-30th June during her acoustic/surprise song set? (Luck of the Irish)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.56, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.603412617614207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719782695763 | 100 | csgoldie | 1719782695763 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717185599667 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719680741930 | 0.35 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | bctsc48aza | {"NO": 97.76237794199766, "YES": 102.28883759285182} | 0.48868674794413935 | will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo | 110 | Will we get synthetic stomachs before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719402523305 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at least 1 million synthetic stomachs have been successfully implanted into 1 million (different) adult humans before January 1st 2035. This can occur anywhere on Earth.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other organs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VjjFx3Ja2JdcecolVgbK", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-lungs-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uVcfNYFHJC9vnXvRUWTJ", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-hearts-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7x80nccb8h", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-livers-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3dtm85w5xp", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-kidneys-befor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gwbxm7gpil", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-eyes-before-2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8fz1ioqms5", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-blood-vessels"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bctsc48aza", "label": "/RemNi/will-we-get-synthetic-stomachs-befo"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, a synthetic stomach is defined as an organ that fulfils broadly the same function as the original tissue it is designed to replace, despite having never been present inside a human body. This definition includes, but is not limited to, biological stomachs grown on scaffolds from the patient's stem cells, artificial stomachs that do not contain biological cells and synthetic stomachs that have both biological and non-biological components.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Successful implantation is defined as the organ continuing to operate for at least 12 months subsequent to the operation. If multiple operations are required, then this clock starts at the final operation. A healthy threshold of operation is not defined for this question, only that the transplant is still considered functional and the clinicians do not consider it appropriate to remove it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These synthetic organs must have been completely implanted into the human, and cannot have significant components located outside of the patient's body. However, these devices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "are", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " allowed to have external ports such as electrical sockets and tubes for fluids. The devices must be able to operate autonomously for a period of at least 12 hours without being connected to these external ports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Various forms of maintenance over the 12 month duration are permitted, provided the synthetic stomachs are not removed from the patient's body during these operations. Removing and replacing components of the organs is permitted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.1663607850928026, "month": -0.011313252055860645} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4382223031217816, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719658621078 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719658617997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | dv4hg1ev5g | {"NO": 2142.1438492439474, "YES": 466.8220578897831} | 0.8210700812098214 | will-there-be-an-inside-out-3-by-1s | 1395 | Will there be an “Inside Out 3” by 1st January 2035? | 2051308740000 | biJAK5HhSRS5QD3X4ODnNgEWhRr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.662717577095286 | False | basic | public | 1719403036596 | Daisy W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The name does not matter as long as it’s a full-length movie (at least an hour long) that’s shown in cinemas and is the sequel (or prequel) to the Inside Out movies (Disney/Pixar following Riley Andersson). The movie must primarily be in the “Inside Out” series, not just a cameo which features or references characters from the movies. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Yes” if the movie is shown anywhere in the world by this date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“No” if it is not shown by then. Still resolves “no” if the movie is confirmed to be in production but not shown by then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0013617860108227076, "month": 0.3210700812098214} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.40306928392691, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DaisyWelham | 1720098853790 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705674736043 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720098850724 | 1719446165690 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | brnxyjzsua | {"NO": 50.563131376937875, "YES": 197.77256130463977} | 0.20360799058301784 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-21rszhqv6t | 100 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2027? | 1804287540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719403189401 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2027.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "brnxyjzsua", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-21rszhqv6t"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": 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"type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zCvydwoQZcam1e3Ldqdm", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-1bb4fc6a9257"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DuhP5JenHm1uxuro1B2z", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-310b616ee40d"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kYgf8E2zxzwz4Fdh6BFQ", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "30u3zwauke", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-fhu6lfgpnt"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "dp1p4y5eoh", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-svz8any2z4"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gtpninds4i", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-1wx0ihkono"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hyb9vmlwgf", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-dv8ynyugb8"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "fd4gic15nf", "label": "/RemNi/will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-vjzflmg10q"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the context of this question, \"significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis\" must demonstrate at least two of the following criteria:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reducing the CAC (Coronary Artery Calcium) score progression rate to 5% annually or lower (on average).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reducing the buildup of non-calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reducing the buildup of calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in the buildup of plaque in other organs (non-heart) of the body compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy over a time period of at least 2 years.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The intervention can be any combination of therapies, which may include but are not limited to statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. The clinical trial must include at least 2000 adults, with no more than 70% belonging to the same ethnic group, ensuring at least 30% representation from other ethnic groups. The trial should ideally be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study or a meta-analysis of such studies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a clinical study demonstrates at least two of the above criteria with respect to another therapy, or set of therapies, that are known to slow atherosclerosis to a greater extent than \"statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor\", then this also qualifies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trial cannot focus exclusively on a specific subset of the disease population (e.g. hypercholesterolemia), it must be roughly representative of either the general adult population, the population with established ASCVD, or a subset with high risk factors. Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2963920094169822} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2274386953602425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RemNi | 1719522257788 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522254707 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45262146006338105 | 5d5y46fv8k | {"NO": 243.6625238274353, "YES": 153.11719174854275} | 0.5681963651843412 | will-i-complete-my-half-marathon | 343.27938792252655 | Will I complete my half marathon? | 1721545140000 | 5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719404818557 | ismellpillows | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m planning on running a half marathon with friends on July 20.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m near my athletic prime, in decent shape, and lift often, but I don’t run. We plan on doing some shorter practices leading up to the event, and I will post updates as they come.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no if I don’t sign up", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m happy to answer any questions :)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I make it?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.02878147811945453, "week": -0.02878147811945453, "month": 0.06819636518434125} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.453868669397865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 200 | ismellpillows | 1720206595051 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712019700747 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720206591885 | 1719794035033 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | h5sxpc794w | {"NO": 1305.7685846983939, "YES": 765.8324849582592} | 0.6303185511073386 | will-julian-assange-create-nostr-pr | 315 | Will Julian Assange create Nostr profile in 2024? | 1735685940000 | SXkPkdIew6WpUSIWhkwpvM7w0b62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.581418181629687 | False | basic | public | 1719405477612 | Lightning Bee ⚡ 🐝 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Julian Assange creates a profile on Nostr and publishes notes before January 1 2025.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It has to be somehow verified (public announcement, NIP-05 verification or other) that this is Julian Assange's profile.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.1303185511073386} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.231415301605809, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LightningBee | 1719492962326 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691608293865 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719492959272 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kbptst2ki9 | change-in-us-support-for-samesex-ma | 0 | Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2024-2025 | 1746158340000 | 8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719406573197 | UnspecifiedPerson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans \"Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?\" The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "most recent such poll,", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/646202/sex-relations-marriage-supported.aspx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " run in May 2024, showed support at 69%. How much will the results change between then and the May 2025 poll?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UnspecifiedPerson | 1719406573257 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "sqc59w52kx", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "+3% or more (>=72%)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "z0aaxa0e41", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "2% increase (71%)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "mbgmrxv4zt", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "1% increase (70%)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "96omlmqp3j", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "No change (69%)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "seq55xvu1l", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "1% decrease (68%)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "syjkyyvo6z", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "2% decrease (67%)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}, {"id": "bm1lxn89js", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "-3% or less (<=66%)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 83.33333333333333, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "contractId": "kbptst2ki9", "createdTime": 1719406573197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704685629131 | 0 | 0.25 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sicdda0bdm | which-of-the-three-american-cyclist | 899 | Which of the three American cyclists will finish the highest in the Tour de France General Classification? | 1722574740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719411689965 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.362607003535294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ovals | 1720103042876 | 0 | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c0u918xf9m", "prob": 0.7274517018740194, "text": "Matteo Jorgenson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 577.6108617445276, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 216.40867282597324, "textFts": "'jorgenson':2 'matteo':1", "contractId": "sicdda0bdm", "createdTime": 1719411689965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.008421020651939504, "month": 0.3902981375308781}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.008421020651939504, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.3902981375308781}, {"id": "fatwjyx7ty", "prob": 0.1848940634403784, "text": "Neilson Powless", "index": 1, "poolNo": 168.3873498778706, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 742.3360489410936, "textFts": "'neilson':1 'powless':2", "contractId": "sicdda0bdm", "createdTime": 1719411689965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0005835701407561344, "month": -0.15093484914101943}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.0005835701407561344, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.15093484914101943}, {"id": "4c96flbkyx", "prob": 0.0876542346856022, "text": "Sean Quinn", "index": 2, "poolNo": 109.5876785938733, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1140.6391813740665, "textFts": "'quinn':2 'sean':1", "contractId": "sicdda0bdm", "createdTime": 1719411689965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.007837450511183314, "month": -0.23936328838985862}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.007837450511183314, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.23936328838985862}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720103039634 | 1720103032884 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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83sox3snsz | market-cap-order-of-top-three-compa | 87 | Market cap order of top three companies at close on 31 July 2024 | 1722466740000 | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719414813151 | Christopher Randles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Order of top 3 companies by market capitalisation at close on 31 July 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be my first choice of source unless it is shown to be less accurate than another source.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Other covers any other company getting anywhere in top 3.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8049272282226724, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 6 | 100 | ChristopherRandles | 1720179091406 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | 3 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9g5xwg3up7", "prob": 0.24343273309571525, "text": "Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.578707765665296, "userId": "KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.985593133477416, "textFts": "'appl':2 'microsoft':1 'nvidia':3", "contractId": "83sox3snsz", "createdTime": 1719414813151, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.09220646444815755}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 20.412414523193153, "probChangeMonth": 0.09220646444815755}, {"id": "miefcu0k6z", "prob": 0.11025241447689509, "text": "Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple", "index": 1, "poolNo": 7.185467420798718, "userId": 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0.4991086150537436 | t4h3ueakpa | {"NO": 1124.1649575698398, "YES": 1076.2358422086406} | 1 | will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs | 1114.6287003537032 | Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week? | 1719769174877 | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.223926569978264 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719414956951 | SlipperySloe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've recently started using obsidian and want to solve an inconvenience I encountered: Currently, when I'm typing a tag, the suggestions are shown in order of their frequency globally. I want to order them by how frequently they're used together with the other tags in the current note. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "About myself:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be my first time writing a plugin for obsidian. I've only done 15 minutes of research on the feasibility before creating this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Languages I know well: dart, python, kotlin, c++, go(sorta)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've never touched web and find its ecosystem frightening", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I currently don't have a job, so I have a lot of time, but", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm really lazy and have problems with attention/procrastination. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On a good day I could do 2-3 hours of coding/studying. Usually it's around 1.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creating this market might push me to be more active though.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I haven't quite learned to \"hack through\" the stuff I don't know and tend to go on tangents when trying a new technology.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if in a week or earlier I will have the described plugin working on my end. Publishing is not necessary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've bet 50 YES for motivation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5510081110973477, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.55975951760843, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719769174877 | 1100 | SlipperySloe | 1719795938583 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701510375108 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719795938583 | 1719769105756 | 0.51 | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1y9kvxdvr9 | {"NO": 69.56379658111425, "YES": 143.75293603102287} | 0.3261056726740632 | will-the-new-zealand-air-force-reac | 45 | Will the New Zealand Air Force reacquire a strike capability before 2029? | 1862035140000 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719416045498 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Technically their name is RNZAF, if you care about that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://simpleflying.com/how-powerful-new-zealand-air-force/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://simpleflying.com/how-powerful-new-zealand-air-force/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_New_Zealand_Air_Force", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_New_Zealand_Air_Force", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.015376956894156912, "month": -0.1738943273259368} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2470639689771101, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | asmith | 1719737960607 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672111268287 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719737957495 | 1719441491092 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 0j26nbfzdu | {"NO": 1193.828669010678, "YES": 837.6411339063391} | 0 | will-i-do-4h-or-more-of-work-on-gra | 200 | Will I do 4h or more of work on GraphSheets this week? | 1719842428685 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575212821615278 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719416229381 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan for only 4 hours this week because of my full time summer job.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two weeks ago I figured out the layout weirdness to support a vscode-like notification widget so this week I'll probably implement the whole notification system and also a ctrl+shift+p menu with commands.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last week didn't do anything because I got sick by the end of the week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: if I do more than 4h this resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5876674451652898, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.171330989322153, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719842428685 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1719842428685 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719431007298 | 1719842423278 | 0.59 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
613zjgmowh | which-option-will-get-the-lowest-an | 287.6962861368682 | Which options will get the lowest and highest percent? | 1720065540000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1719421854730 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After this question closes, two options will resolve YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the option with the highest percentage (closest to 100%) at the time of close, and", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the option with the lowest percentage (closest to 0%) at the time of close.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All other options will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": 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wxrjwqsj9w | who-will-win-the-upcoming-rng-we-ma | 68.21119479341901 | Who will win the upcoming RNG 🆚 WE match in the 🏆 LPL Summer Placements 2024 on June 27? | 1719478800000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 01nhyxux3c | public | 1719422075165 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "League of Legends Summer Split", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " continues to heat up as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Royal Never Give Up (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "RNG", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " faces off against ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Team ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "WE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both teams have shown impressive performances this season, making this match one of the most anticipated clashes of the week", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Analysis", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week 4, (Day 4)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RNG vs. WE", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 27 (Thursday)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9:00 (GMT)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RNG, known for their strategic prowess and aggressive plays, will be looking to capitalize on their momentum", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, Team WE has demonstrated resilience and tactical depth, making them formidable opponents. With both teams eyeing a crucial win to boost their standings, this match promises intense action and strategic gameplay", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Games of Legends.gg", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gol.gg/game/stats/59549/page-preview/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Twitch.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitch.tv/lpl/schedule?segmentID=63e5cb4b-5cb7-4198-8526-1852a0417f6c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(For more insights and the latest updates on the Summer Split, visit ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "GosuGamers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gosugamers.net/lol/news/71903-what-to-watch-this-week-summer-split-action", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet responsibly and stay tuned for the results!", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9979999447037293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719488981647 | 100 | JoaoDavid | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 3 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "01nhyxux3c", "prob": 0.32775715987852866, "text": "RNG", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.91266534239604, "userId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.60725127921233, "textFts": "'rng':1", "contractId": "wxrjwqsj9w", "resolverId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "createdTime": 1719422075165, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.6565850981940058, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.6565850981940058, "resolutionTime": 1719488981647, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.5}, {"id": "agb5zl1rjl", "prob": 0.6722428401214713, "text": "WE", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 71.60725127921233, "userId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.91266534239604, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wxrjwqsj9w", "resolverId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "createdTime": 1719422075165, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.6565850981940058, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.6565850981940058, "resolutionTime": 1719488981647, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.5}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719472338122 | 1719484839519 | {"01nhyxux3c": 100} | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | m9pwg8wzsg | {"NO": 104.83477689304206, "YES": 95.38819365450186} | 0.523590158543515 | will-the-federal-reserve-hike-inter | 34.09542947163955 | Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028? | 1830412740000 | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719423705183 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any rate hike counts. If they cut rates, then hike later, this will still resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.06407576321959862, "month": 0.023590158543514983} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.069793635318373, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Arcmage7000 | 1719706008595 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719706005439 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999445 | xiecnk82yp | {"NO": 1066.2362780446038, "YES": 9.378784239398854} | 1 | will-lebrons-son-bronny-james-be-dr | 1070.8280216568212 | Will LeBron's son Bronny James be drafted for one of the NBA teams his father played for? | 1719534254266 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719424614854 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronny_James", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronny_James", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.20339660798825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719534254266 | 100 | strutheo | 1719534254266 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719527713245 | 1719512882371 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 52mprp62fq | {"NO": 51.85457923766436, "YES": 192.8469991853014} | 0.2119094595623487 | will-any-country-institute-zones-wh | 95 | Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030? | 1924988340000 | hq2zTnPhCjfjPb1Rur0UPaKHT432 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719425348721 | deleted | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“For most people today, avatars are secondary forms, subservient to our primary physical form which is felt to be our “real” self. Avatars are typically used exclusively online, in social media or in games. In-person interactions, professional spaces, or other “third places” have the norm of appearing as our “real”, physical form.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is going to change soon, with the arrival of devices which unlock a capability I refer to as full photonic override. Specifically, we will soon have augmented and virtual reality devices (likely in the form of hybrid, pass-through camera over-the-eye visors or goggles) which will allow software to fully control everything we see while incorporating the outside world. A glimpse of the potential of full override can be seen with Phone AR, which fully allows software to modify, remove, or replace what is seen by the camera. Imagine two such cameras on the front of a pair of opaque goggles, which feed themselves into screens on the inside, and you have the general idea of a passthrough, hybrid visor.”", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "~Greg Fodor, from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gfodor.medium.com/the-rise-of-avatarism-b7ecfa7c42bc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gfodor.medium.com/the-rise-of-avatarism-b7ecfa7c42bc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2880905404376513} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1530008146986, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | deleted2 | 1719441428873 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuhBErj2CRp.l9m1YBhmSQVeKVncVnpC?alt=media&token=e849592b-eb5f-486d-9c0c-02e00a2efa34 | 1719424874576 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719441425810 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6afci6037v | do-you-see-a-problem-with-the-lack | 0 | Do you see a problem with the lack of diversity among users on manifold? | kkuoCvOuSrfyV9rySO6oEv0sYUo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719427257141 | CC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Rucker/the-manifold-gender-census?r=Y2hlc2hpcmVjYXQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Rucker/the-manifold-gender-census?r=Y2hlc2hpcmVjYXQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Human perspectives are generally limited by their experience, and unfortunately in our society today, protected classes such as gender, sexual orientation, or race etc still lead to different experiences.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | cheshirecat | 1719682177965 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703142682566 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719682177041 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yjbz875187 | what-will-happen-with-the-controver | 11700.090822865572 | What will happen with the controversial Polymarket about Barron Trump's involvement with $DJT? | 1720940340000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719431331819 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on what will happen with the controversial Polymarket \"Was Barron involved in $DJT?\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is about events that will take place before market close on midnight PST, Saturday, July 13th. You can add your own answers to this market to speculate on what Polymarket will or won't do.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Original market,", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt?tid=1719429454224", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " which resolved \"NO\" on Polymarket after being disputed:", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-R0KM7QdfV.png?alt=media&token=f7362d39-d075-49b3-be36-614f59bb5343", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polymarket Tweet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/1805998648788173006", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", saying they disagree with the resolution:", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fri8cNJa0fE.png?alt=media&token=3b21e51d-8864-46d3-b668-f0f31aac00e4", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine Print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolutions here will primarily be based on Polymarket's own announcements, and will resolve based on the spirit of the question in ambiguous cases. 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0.5 | pal302ubw7 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-svengoran-eriksson-celebrate-h | 0 | Will Sven-Göran Eriksson celebrate his 77th birthday? | 1738789140000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719438357556 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sven-G%C3%B6ran_Eriksson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sven-G%C3%B6ran_Eriksson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sven-Göran Eriksson is a Swedish retired football manager and former player, born on February 5, 1948. He has managed several top teams and national squads, including England, Manchester City, and Lazio. In January 2024, Eriksson announced that he had been diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer, with \"at best about a year to live\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he is alive on his birthday on 5 Feb 2025 0900h UTC (even if he is not jovial about things), NO if he passes away before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719438357621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | z81640cwd | {"NO": 882.5847918042841, "YES": 1133.0356123128763} | 0.43787252302144447 | will-flowers-have-a-verified-user-b | 301 | will @Flowers have a verified user badge by the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572756805647536 | False | basic | public | 1719438509977 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "user ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2", "label": "Flowers"}}, {"text": " joined Manifold in March 2024. when they did, I wrote to Community Manager David/", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "label": "SirSalty"}}, {"text": " to verify that this Flowers is the same as well-known Twitter anon ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flowers From the Future", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/futuristflower?t=wP5JQebbFivYGF8ZQ064nA&s=09", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as they used the same pfp and are interested in AI markets. last I heard, he has not received a reply to his DM.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Flowers has been creating interesting AI-related markets lately, which again has me curious.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "verified users get a special badge to denote that they are, in fact, the same person as a recognisable online persona, public figure, etc. for example, Patrick Mackenzie:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FmC2PxuAPau.png?alt=media&token=0e61523f-b25d-4d0c-8d5b-331600624a0b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "will ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "0gx2KqibQkQzLfxghEvczA1334R2", "label": "Flowers"}}, {"text": " be verified as @futuristflower? or are they unrelated?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.06212747697855553} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.862975601785973, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | shankypanky | 1719448902660 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698976802308 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719448899622 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bxcireb4tm | would-you-have-a-negative-opinion-o | 0 | Would you have a negative opinion of your President if they use performance enhancing drugs before a debate? | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719446682912 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Quillist | 1719446682942 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000037 | vjidut1soy | {"NO": 9785.23024526786, "YES": 102.19483598596071} | 1 | will-france-beat-belgium-euro-2024 | 433511.23589421454 | Will France beat Belgium? | Euro 2024 | 1719856282806 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850641586111156 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719448648667 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out) will France have beat Belgium?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.2521568516388444, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4180.191351054998, "platformFee": 3180.1913510549984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719856282806 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719857900731 | 0 | 80 | 50 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719856261123 | 1719857898759 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | mbb7nn2hki | {"NO": 104.8347768930421, "YES": 95.38819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | is-brian-chau-psychosort-more-autis | 5 | Is Brian Chau (psychosort) more autistic than BasedBeffJezos? | 11139569940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719453105636 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719475781223 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719475778027 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6u2fj6y0gi | {"NO": 14.11037818379782, "YES": 708.6982269180041} | 0.01952159684348319 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-ever-unblock | 727 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever unblock me on X? | 1893571140000 | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719454536050 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not sure why I was blocked. I wish I weren't. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm genuinely trying to help and find his perspectives valuable.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to bet that I will continue to be blocked in hopes that others will bet against me and convince him to unblock me.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.164059264302267, "month": -0.4804784031565168} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.5812547811735875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Krantz | 1719737152947 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719737149871 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | e4zvpmwbmu | {"NO": 1387.7123258156278, "YES": 720.6104474227067} | 0.6582067714822122 | will-nate-silvers-model-correctly-p | 28021.929840918638 | Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election? | 1730879940000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.94200514508276 | False | basic | public | 1719454883277 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 presidential election is the candidate predicted most likely to win by Nate Silver’s model (released today, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model?utm_medium=email", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") on Election Day. NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.049257768075723685, "month": 0.15820677148221218} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 513.7569676526475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BlueDragon | 1720129913080 | 0 | 143 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720129910021 | 1719593322990 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 42mzws35rr | {"NO": 109.88044557241945, "YES": 91.00800372536935} | 0.5469724414544971 | will-any-north-korean-soldier-defec | 170.8163202571711 | Will any North Korean soldier defect after being deployed in Ukraine by 2026? | 1767243540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719461870255 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.12785581425316017, "month": 0.04697244145449708} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.687441363369238, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Predictor | 1719810261374 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719810258258 | 1719473557787 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
j4jib9mz5u | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-99 | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 99) | 1719891200678 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719462416683 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] NOP", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HateBarbs needs amenities", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gentle eruption of Phlagrean Fields volcano", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Combat:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alfonzo was killed by barbarian galley", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ichabod killed barbarian warrior while defending", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2Jv-YgSOhS.png?alt=media&token=f4b6a5f6-947e-40fd-aecf-cede042f70eb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/6aPZmOg.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUFkGkWON24.png?alt=media&token=462ecbf1-e795-4e91-b392-4084e4568348", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/c4brZBG.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtvZywYYjTE.png?alt=media&token=3fa3471c-c620-4f34-92b2-f5ea5428bbd7", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/UwPNn3h.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FAzzcMLxOHw.png?alt=media&token=41f83a1c-1ac1-42ad-9a4c-ff87e6e10103", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/0yd5N6v.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full map view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKYGYjf1cAK.png?alt=media&token=5d1d7087-ad2b-4033-8de9-707a50a4848f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/SbDcITj.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-98", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-98", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Link to side markets.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/manifoldplaysciv6?s=newest&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=manifoldplaysciv6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/komplexkonjugat/how-will-lets-play-civilization-vi", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719891200678 | 110 | komplexkonjugat | 1719891200678 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5twaxk1dqb", "prob": 0.5, "text": "NOP", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'nop':1", "contractId": "j4jib9mz5u", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "createdTime": 1719891192489, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719891200678, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2mur21lbv6 | {"NO": 93.6585811581694, "YES": 106.7707825203131} | 0.4672897196261683 | will-joe-biden-win-washoe-county-ne | 7 | Will Joe Biden win Washoe County, Nevada? | 1731477540000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719466177480 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe Biden is currently the presumed Democratic nominee for President. In the event a different Democrat wins the party nomination, this market will be changed to that candidate.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.032710280373831724} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2292174796868878, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | thepurplebull | 1720209808242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719471647506 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | h7ia67sfw5 | {"NO": 1325.9153126769818, "YES": 754.1959810246346} | 0.6374251784948867 | will-carl-shulman-soon-claim-that-a | 1692.0641970073418 | Will Carl Shulman soon claim that AI forecasting systems will play an integral role in the post-AGI economy? | 1720076340000 | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582731634133857 | False | basic | public | 1719468268080 | AdamK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Robert Wiblin will soon release an interview with Carl Shulman (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1806070670154993811", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1806070670154993811", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). This market resolves YES if, during the interview, Carl expresses confidence that AI-based judgmental forecasting systems (including AIs participating in prediction markets) will be integral parts of world economy and governance post-AGI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This must include confident claims, conditional on his assumptions behind the trajectories he imagines, similar to the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most people will generally defer to AI forecasting systems on questions they haven’t thought carefully about", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI forecasting systems will closely guide the decision-making of large and important civil institutions, such as businesses or government", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI systems will make predictions about personal events in peoples’ lives, with impressive historical track records, for instance by offering insurance contracts tied to specific personal events", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ll resolve conservatively, leaning towards NO in cases where Carl’s discussion of AI forecasting is short, remote, tangential, or framed as highly speculative relative to the main trajectories he considers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m mostly making this market because it’s clear that Carl is thinking carefully about how new epistemic systems will affect society, and I want to preregister my expectation that he will publicly present a vision of what they might be like.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.030475711470322686, "month": 0.13742517849488667} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.032405017917526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AdamK | 1720075354211 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | 14 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687620319599 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720075351156 | 1719621030185 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | nxzicvcjcc | {"NO": 10.050378152592202, "YES": 994.9874371066243} | 0 | will-trump-say-crypto-or-bitcoin-at | 1829.313778892599 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the debate? | 1719545769968 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719472240122 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any usage of the word will count. Pluralization and possessives will count, but not other forms. Compound words with crypto or bitcoin in them will count if the word clearly references the currency Bitcoin or decentralized cryptocurrency.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If this does not happen or the debate does not happen, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.35202902045035, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719545769968 | 100 | Mana | 1719545769968 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719545671070 | 1719545748313 | 0.01 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | toiy16j3s4 | {"NO": 80.48568246138338, "YES": 124.2457005293823} | 0.3931282116382404 | will-the-peoples-republic-of-china-p43fng651l | 25 | Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028? | 1831467540000 | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719473311540 | MercurialGuesser | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China currently has a second strike nuclear posture, meaning it is not prepared to launch on warning of incoming missiles. Instead it has most of its nuclear warheads in storage, with a focus on survivability for a second strike.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2027 China adopts a ‘launch on warning’ doctrine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For clarity, the ability to shift to a launch-on-warning posture during heightened tensions will not count unless such a shift actually occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following may help in forming a view:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/some-things-you-need-to-know-about-that-new-york-times-article-on-chinese-nuclear-ambition/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/some-things-you-need-to-know-about-that-new-york-times-article-on-chinese-nuclear-ambition/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/xi-jinpings-thoughts-on-chinas-nuclear-weapons/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/xi-jinpings-thoughts-on-chinas-nuclear-weapons/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.icsin.org/publications/launch-on-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.icsin.org/publications/launch-on-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/strategic-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/strategic-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10687178836175959} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7542994706176983, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | OP | 1719610522287 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708343869712 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719610518903 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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64fiadet94 | olympics-2024-mens-volleyball-pool | 100 | Olympics 2024, Men's Volleyball, Pool A: Who will advance to the quarterfinals? | 1723327140000 | 1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719476662194 | Sergey Bozhko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0921244348197425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SergeyBozhko | 1719476683165 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSZVj6jvHxiuTNodTVON-A_A195nc_pe9DSkgr1FHUyw=s96-c | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1ma9jazcq9", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 298.4539377825901, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.4125494351104, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "64fiadet94", "createdTime": 1719476662195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4b3455rynv", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "Slovenia", "index": 1, "poolNo": 298.4539377825901, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.4125494351104, "textFts": "'slovenia':1", "contractId": "64fiadet94", "createdTime": 1719476662195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "nlu2rny4xu", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Canada", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'canada':1", "contractId": "64fiadet94", "createdTime": 1719476662195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "choda59579", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Serbia", "index": 3, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'serbia':1", "contractId": "64fiadet94", "createdTime": 1719476662195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702550186602 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719476680118 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
opspfhc86z | olympics-2024-mens-volleyball-pool-khix7zntmu | 100 | Olympics 2024, Men's Volleyball, Pool B: Who will advance to the quarterfinals? | 1723327140000 | 1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719476776411 | Sergey Bozhko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0921244348197425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SergeyBozhko | 1719476792142 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSZVj6jvHxiuTNodTVON-A_A195nc_pe9DSkgr1FHUyw=s96-c | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "kjix4bu7ht", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "Poland", "index": 0, "poolNo": 298.4539377825901, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.4125494351104, "textFts": "'poland':1", "contractId": "opspfhc86z", "createdTime": 1719476776412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5dbh01m7rm", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "Italy", "index": 1, "poolNo": 298.4539377825901, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.4125494351104, "textFts": "'itali':1", "contractId": "opspfhc86z", "createdTime": 1719476776412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "vfv8kf8s0j", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Brazil", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'brazil':1", "contractId": "opspfhc86z", "createdTime": 1719476776412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "kdttjfunzo", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Egypt", "index": 3, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'egypt':1", "contractId": "opspfhc86z", "createdTime": 1719476776412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702550186602 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719476789081 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2qti2nosij | {"NO": 1242.432210587677, "YES": 804.8728868088463} | 0.6068622659942716 | aca-5-marriage-equality-vote-percen | 250 | ACA 5 Marriage Equality Vote Percentage | 1733990340000 | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577663663694121 | False | basic | public | 1719476798480 | Mike Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the percentage of Yes voting for ACA 5, the California ballot measure to make marriage regardless of gender a constitutional right. It is scheduled to go on the ballot in the November 5, 2024 election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the measure does not make it to the ballot, resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The title will update to the official ballot designation (e.g., \"Proposition 31\") when it is assigned.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.10686226599427162} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.56778941232296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeChenSF | 1719476828021 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661144467248 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719476824961 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
icvd5wzjaj | olympics-2024-mens-volleyball-pool-0gro5jrx72 | 268.5168919242505 | Olympics 2024, Men's Volleyball, Pool C: Who will advance to the quarterfinals? | 1723327140000 | 1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719476837990 | Sergey Bozhko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.595632542513801, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SergeyBozhko | 1719486578759 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSZVj6jvHxiuTNodTVON-A_A195nc_pe9DSkgr1FHUyw=s96-c | 4 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "87wcgx0357", "prob": 0.6699999999999999, "text": "Japan", "index": 0, "poolNo": 356.2217559245075, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 175.45250664938433, "textFts": "'japan':1", "contractId": "icvd5wzjaj", "createdTime": 1719476837990, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08766220117740464, "week": 0.08766220117740464, "month": 0.08766220117740464}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08766220117740464, "probChangeWeek": 0.08766220117740464, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.08766220117740464}, {"id": "2ulbaogz44", "prob": 0.6585214682159813, "text": "USA", "index": 1, "poolNo": 347.17086765853367, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 180.02662614385332, "textFts": "'usa':1", "contractId": "icvd5wzjaj", "createdTime": 1719476837990, "probChanges": {"day": 0.15852146821598134, "week": 0.15852146821598134, "month": 0.15852146821598134}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.15852146821598134, "probChangeWeek": 0.15852146821598134, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.15852146821598134}, {"id": "tmq2ghugjm", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Argentina", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'argentina':1", "contractId": "icvd5wzjaj", "createdTime": 1719476837990, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "qfbgv7rvsr", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Germany", "index": 3, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "1SjaY8FjDAZYoup81ydhMz5NyA63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "icvd5wzjaj", "createdTime": 1719476837990, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702550186602 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719486575551 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gsrkdvgdv5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jacob-rintamaki-raise-more-tha | 0 | Will Jacob rintamaki raise more than 5 million by EOY 2025 | 1767243540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719477036176 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719477036176 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | gu991ng9pp | {"NO": 1035.9638503910564, "YES": 965.2846473576469} | 0.517658777286509 | before-2026-a-publicly-available-ai | 616.5826809076638 | Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations? | 1767340740000 | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570527148257773 | False | basic | public | 1719479729308 | AdamK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before 2026, will an AI system be publicly demonstrated or released, which can determine with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "high reliability", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " whether a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "touch move violation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touch-move_rule", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " occurred in videos of chess games? The system should point out ambiguous situations and provide reasonable evaluations for edge cases.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To meet the bar for \"high reliability,\" red teamers (and/or the public) must have been given ample opportunity to search for videos of real chess games which the system misevaluates. Though the system does not need to be perfect, a YES resolution requires evaluators (or broad public consensus) to agree that the system decides whether a touch move violation has occurred with comparable reliability to a careful human who is knowledgeable about the rules. The system should very rarely miss blatant violations (<1%). In cases that humans consider ambiguous, the system should generally (in >90% of cases) provide reasonable justifications for its decision.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market gauges the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reliability", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of video-capable multimodal AI systems in detecting semantically sensitive information.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.017658777286508998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.83830103087424, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AdamK | 1719513053448 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687620319599 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719513050143 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000014 | 3kgdxh6dhz | {"NO": 999.9999999999991, "YES": 1000.000000000005} | 1 | daily-coinflip-9boyi0ocvy | 28035.018685805462 | Daily coinflip | 1719633540000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714733 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719480689197 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 169)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 86 heads vs 82 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 389.7133792000521, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719640007958 | 1000 | Traveel | 1719633540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 76 | 36 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719633418981 | 1719639995248 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b1g0ajc0bc | which-one-of-these-minor-parties-wi | 484.69001572253103 | Which one of these minor parties will have the best performance in a Constituency in the upcoming UK General Election? | 1720203356097 | sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | djgr6dyxct | public | 1719481756480 | Jony | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to the listed party which receives the greatest % of the vote in a constituency in the UK general election. 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ux8p3rrrlv | -what-will-be-bitcoins-closing-pric | 185461.07564371466 | 💰 What will be ₿ Bitcoin's closing price range
–BTCUSDT Binance pair, June 30 (23:59 GMT1) ❓🤔 | 1719788340000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | dbt3jkx6mi | public | 1719484230422 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "ℹ️🔻", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/information", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "As of today Bitcoin's price is approximately $ 65 K", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Analysts forecast that it could range between $ 64 875 ~ 72 458", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(By the end of June)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": 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0.5 | v73lsn6xcb | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | will-william-ruto-serve-full-term-a | 5 | Will William Ruto serve full term as the president of Kenya | 1820872740000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719491554054 | Limerick Ostrich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if William Ruto steps down or is removed from the position of the president of Kenya before his current 5 year term starting in Sep 13th 2022 ends. Otherwise resovles yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Temporary incapacitation (e.g. hospitalization) does not resolve as long as Ruto is recognized within Kenya as the president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A de facto removal from office (e.g. coup) counts as NO, even if the change in leadership is not internationally recognized as long Ruto is unable to exercise his authority over majority of Kenya's population for more than a month. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Death counts as NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Partially subjective resolution, I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cerrv93yx1mo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cerrv93yx1mo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AIBear | 1719496995955 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719496992897 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | glvc1rls9n | {"NO": 1673.5184724109718, "YES": 597.5434490181302} | 0.7368880859742843 | will-the-will-jimmy-carter-become-a-b5pxit866j | 921.7905393079554 | Will the "Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?" market hit 1,100 traders before it is correctly resolved? | 1728187140000 | 8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611979537868331 | False | basic | public | 1719492532118 | Dr. Derek Harris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0020285620487447975, "month": 0.23688808597428435} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.35381488918233, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DrDerek | 1720066448469 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682434756086 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720028253262 | 1720066447496 | 0 |
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