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0.14000000000000007 | trlk0kfl32 | {"NO": 1095.551381957886, "YES": 570.8758513607928} | 0.23804120893517286 | will-why-not-just-build-weak-ai-too | 101 | Will "Why Not Just... Build Weak AI Tools For AI Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.847509561694391 | False | public | 1719502747141 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Why Not Just... Build Weak AI Tools For AI Alignment Research?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KQfYieur2DFRZDamd/why-not-just-build-weak-ai-tools-for-ai-alignment-research", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.09722843446445115, "month": 0.09804120893517285} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.448618042114064, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719704760714 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719704757624 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
abffqppn8v | manifold-demographics-whats-your-ed | 0 | [Manifold Demographics] What’s your education level? | kkuoCvOuSrfyV9rySO6oEv0sYUo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719502909991 | CC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Survey on manifold demographics", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | cheshirecat | 1719502909991 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703142682566 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999944 | zguwq4erjy | {"NO": 4292.092172294952, "YES": 232.98660882795477} | 1 | will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th | 11192.303397331843 | Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending? | 1719594430081 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.903964108512978 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719503862536 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump posts something indicating or closely related to winning the debate according to my common sense judgment ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before June 28th, 11 PM ET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". For example, I will resolve YES if he posts: \"I won the debate,\" \"Such an easy win,\" or \"It was so easy to defeat Sleepy Joe.\" Statements like \"Biden can't argue\" or \"Biden is so bad at debates\" will not resolve this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if he hasn't posted it by June 28th, 11 PM ET. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50%/50% if the debate doesn't take place, is rescheduled by more than a few hours, or if the expression he uses is highly controversial.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only posts from this account ( ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ) will be considered including images and videos, but no linked articles or quoted statements from other persons or media apart from himself.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not hold an active position in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e830afce-8a91-4775-9af5-e1f4450e7659", "url": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump", "image": "https://static-assets-1.truthsocial.com/tmtg:prime-ts-assets/accounts/avatars/107/780/257/626/128/497/original/454286ac07a6f6e6.jpeg", "title": "Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 141.45239546899376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719594430081 | 1000 | Lion | 1719594430081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 38 | 36 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719591770996 | 1719594420025 | 0.95 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | fn3kbpxlc1 | {"NO": 139.32610920384724, "YES": 71.77405625652737} | 0.6599999999999999 | will-nasa-bring-back-mars-samples-t | 263.1364030822384 | Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China? | 2082754740000 | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719506357633 | Mqrius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NASA's Mars sample return mission (MSR) is hitting delays. Meanwhile China wants to send a Mars sample return mission by 2030.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will NASA get samples back first?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Mini market because it locks mana long term)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.15999999999999992} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.2476884573853635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mqrius | 1719655427778 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668945784174 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719655424635 | 1719506392785 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
url2vico9x | how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20 | 15152.09260817824 | How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe? | 2556172740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 2.2844344465023907 | False | premium | public | 1719507075652 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer resolves PROB to the percent attributable, based on scientific consensus in 2050. They will sum to 100%. This might be a little subjective so I won't trade on it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 407.2940365120027, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100000 | JonathanRay | 1720150830577 | 0 | 18 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "wjzwp36rfy", "prob": 0.2877318728797629, "text": "improved diet", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7645.139058934329, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18925.219596219154, "textFts": "'diet':2 'improv':1", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": -0.003615540679806628, "week": -0.0119850847018661, "month": -0.21226812712023713}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.003615540679806628, "probChangeWeek": -0.0119850847018661, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.21226812712023713}, {"id": "hg0ruisfe6", "prob": 0.3682217264777499, "text": "increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9855.107939151949, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16908.95086156483, "textFts": "'air':5 'clean':4 'hygien':3 'increas':1 'sanit':2 'water':6", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.011472348236200802, "month": -0.13177827352225008}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.011472348236200802, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.13177827352225008}, {"id": "65dabhl79i", "prob": 0.3283284846908079, "text": "vaccines and antibiotics", "index": 2, "poolNo": 8807.187161659442, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18017.129254119438, "textFts": "'antibiot':3 'vaccin':1", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.01349176441665112, "month": -0.1716715153091921}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.01349176441665112, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.1716715153091921}, {"id": "zsqepky4zo", "prob": 0.34193125867281676, "text": "medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics", "index": 3, "poolNo": 8714.762453218393, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16772.121919518275, "textFts": "'/antibiotics':5 'ex':3 'ex-vaccin':2 'medic':1 'vaccin':4", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.01478784418412632, "month": -0.15806874132718324}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.01478784418412632, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.15806874132718324}, {"id": "8b9httnmwh", "prob": 0.296636719053624, "text": "reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment", "index": 4, "poolNo": 7876.377458254627, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18675.88985168278, "textFts": "'abandon':6 'child':5 'execut':4 'homicid':3 'reduc':1 'war':2", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.011257364633909361, "month": -0.20226626070156412}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.011257364633909361, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.20226626070156412}, {"id": "1dwlwp867a", "prob": 0.337270934087848, "text": "all other cuases", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9204.239462493246, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18086.103499867822, "textFts": "'cuas':3", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0023188378400554877, "week": -0.012341250447311325, "month": -0.16272906591215203}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0023188378400554877, "probChangeWeek": -0.012341250447311325, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.16272906591215203}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720150582618 | 1720150829325 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ynkgeh2b7m | {"NO": 774.5298267022673, "YES": 1291.105862582106} | 1 | time-machine-coin-flip-35 | 300 | Time Machine Coin Flip 3/5 | 1719730740000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580496984601167 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719507356709 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over 10 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heads - Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tails - No", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The coins are predetermined, and you can ask one (1) yes/no question about them by PMing me (Interrobang) in the Manifold messenger.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Response guaranteed in 14 hours or your money back!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the first market for slightly more details ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far people are mostly asking solid 'what's the result of this market' questions, which a bit dull, but also reasonable, since I believe you can only get on average 1 coin's worth of information from the question, and asking for a single coin is the lowest-risk method of doing that. Of course, the point of these markets is to see if someone can get more than 1 bit of information somehow, but it seems there's not enough complexity to do so. If I ever do something like this again, I'll try to put in enough complexity for it to be interesting. Of course, we still have this market and 2 others to go, so I might make a rules change to add more complexity if I can think of a good way to do it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.6250404508790229, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.894137417893832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719730905933 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719730740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719510217162 | 0.37 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1sutju93x3 | will-oakland-mayor-sheng-thao-resig | 632.6232145509821 | Will Oakland mayor Sheng Thao resign, or be recalled by voters (on ballot in November)? Multiple questions. | 1730869140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719509040063 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In late June 2024, Oakland mayor Sheng Thao's house was raided by the FBI, investigating corruption.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/sf/oakland-mayor-defiant-after-fbi-raid-attorney-resigns-amid-political-turmoil", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/sf/oakland-mayor-defiant-after-fbi-raid-attorney-resigns-amid-political-turmoil", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzpThjDhoh-.png?alt=media&token=704e2525-1039-42ad-a488-71a765f62261", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFowD8dw5zp.png?alt=media&token=b8d579f4-d919-4256-a70c-35629e509136", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since then she's made bizarre statements blaming a right wing conspiracy and declaring her innocence. Her lawyer quit after she made a public statement without his knowledge.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "But as of June 27th, she has not yet resigned. She has attended City Council meetings, however reportedly left mid-meeting and did not come back.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://x.com/YayAreaNews/status/1806172741525274833", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/YayAreaNews/status/1806172741525274833", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyZUYz3TlCw.png?alt=media&token=a7238073-ff1b-44ba-b8d9-c18a09c48beb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets will resolve according to media reports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "What will happen? Will she resign? If so when. Will she be charged or arrested? Will her recall appear on the November ballot... and if so will voters vote out their mayor? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Remember that in California, any public official can be \"recalled\" via ballot initiative. Most famously this is how Arnold became governor. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "All markets will be resolved shortly after November 5th election.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.767431102353743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719686057650 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e4rqvu6s1q", "prob": 0.6738662009311223, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will resign before August 1st?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 159.71526368638973, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.29805359484702, "textFts": "'1st':8 'august':7 'mayor':1 'resign':5 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.17386620093112226, "month": 0.17386620093112226}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.17386620093112226, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0.17386620093112226}, {"id": "24dlivp523", "prob": 0.7961157329433336, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will resign before November election?", "index": 1, "poolNo": 219.56026016125267, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.22911451862274, "textFts": "'elect':8 'mayor':1 'novemb':7 'resign':5 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2961157329433336, "month": 0.2961157329433336}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2961157329433336, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0.2961157329433336}, {"id": "y43i2c70p7", "prob": 0.4131275989941272, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will be arrested or detained by police / FBI?", "index": 2, "poolNo": 93.22400396082033, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 132.43025924454238, "textFts": "'arrest':6 'detain':8 'fbi':11 'mayor':1 'polic':10 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "gs4brngjq5", "prob": 0.8087705074319855, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will stop attending city council sessions by August 1st? 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Will resolve NO if not on ballot. Will resolve NO if she resigns before the election.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 77.29805359484702, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 159.71526368638973, "textFts": "'ball':8 'ballot':17 'elect':26 'mayor':1 'novemb':10 'recal':6 'resign':23 'resolv':12,19 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.17386620093112237, "month": -0.17386620093112237}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.17386620093112237, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.17386620093112237}, {"id": "zlmfarbrq2", "prob": 0.15630683605442258, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will flee the state before resigning?", "index": 6, "poolNo": 47.82491552186477, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 258.1432476697514, "textFts": "'flee':5 'mayor':1 'resign':9 'sheng':2 'state':7 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3436931639455774, "month": -0.3436931639455774}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3436931639455774, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": -0.3436931639455774}, {"id": "6vhlalfk5w", "prob": 0.6738662009311223, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will be charged in federal court before November election?", "index": 7, "poolNo": 159.71526368638973, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.29805359484702, "textFts": "'charg':6 'court':9 'elect':12 'feder':8 'mayor':1 'novemb':11 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.17386620093112226, "month": 0.17386620093112226}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 0.17386620093112226, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0.17386620093112226}, {"id": "gmx6rwgrbl", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will be charge criminally in *state* court for a felony related to corruption, before November election?", "index": 8, "poolNo": 111.11111111111111, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 111.11111111111111, "textFts": "'charg':6 'corrupt':16 'court':10 'crimin':7 'elect':19 'feloni':13 'mayor':1 'novemb':18 'relat':14 'sheng':2 'state':9 'thao':3", "contractId": "1sutju93x3", "createdTime": 1719509040064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 111.1111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719686054581 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10464685998694001 | ztomkvqqc2 | {"NO": 9331.475079204254, "YES": 11549.718525959162} | 0.08628249336415499 | will-there-be-proof-that-joe-biden | 17064.483708855874 | Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign? | 1730879940000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.239684725574461 | False | plus | public | 1719509987351 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if, before November 5th 2024, there is proof that Joe Biden has used any drug considered a stimulant besides caffeine at any point this year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per Wikipedia:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stimulant", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stimulants (also known as central nervous system stimulants, or psychostimulants, or colloquially as uppers) are a class of drugs that increase the activity of the brain. They are used for various purposes, such as enhancing alertness, attention, motivation, cognition, mood, and physical performance. Some of the most common stimulants are caffeine, nicotine, amphetamines, cocaine, methylphenidate, modafinil.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market does not require that Biden admit to using stimulants, a consensus of credible reporting based on strong evidence would still be sufficient to resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hypothetical examples of strong evidence:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A verified recent prescription for a stimulant in Biden's name", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Testimony from multiple reliable staffers close to Biden", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leaked behind-the-scenes audio/video of Biden using stimulants", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, a direct confirmation by Biden would also be sufficient to resolve this market without any other evidence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the requirements to resolve this market YES are not met by November 5th, this market will resolve to NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.010248651725082839, "month": -0.413717506635845} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 193.12184413296464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720105570313 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720105567258 | 1719547583447 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | kj435rhe9w | {"NO": 1145.264713822203, "YES": 873.1605784505514} | 0.5674050549240942 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1120 | 150 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1120 of One Piece on July 11th? | 1720767540000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573191668140852 | False | basic | public | 1719511819130 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for July 11th If they release chapter 1120 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB Scans ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "usually", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1119, 1118, 1117, 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I’d put the info here for investors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not answer my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.06740505492409421} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.735286177796951, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719531781268 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719531777853 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49921094138640654 | s7b3q9x08b | {"NO": 5686.463770859702, "YES": 17616.897024840484} | 0.24343726937959154 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | 53328.19742668804 | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 1722117540000 | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.875121388817392 | False | plus | public | 1719512559133 | Patrik Cihal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES at the resolution date iff I believe that listening to music leads to higher utility for an individual. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Leading to higher utility\": whether it is a behavior that would improve the outcome under a reasonable utility function (such as \"maximizing money within a 5 year period\").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can post arguments for / against in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My current belief is NO. As I see it, music is just exploiting our reward mechanism, which partially works on prediction. And so predictable and impactful sounds make us feel good.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I genuinely care about the truth, and so I will try to be as unbiased as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Possible ways of convincing me to the YES side:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if music improves long term cognitive function", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if the pleasure from it is somehow needed for optimal functioning", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if people without it make worse decisions", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "why we evolved a need for it, assuming it is still relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT (June 30th): I allowed myself to bet in this market, since this market was dying off. There was approximately 150 Mana prior.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT (July 1st): Since there seemed to be some confusion in definitions, I clarified the resolution criteria.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.01247009582546521, "week": -0.2550683477807907, "month": -0.25656273062040846} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1083.426404744199, "platformFee": 83.4264047441991, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1150 | 10000 | patrik | 1720242722000 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690398218800 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242718942 | 1720188978496 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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3p16dgrw41 | which-company-will-be-the-biggest-w-rhslpzd319 | 1875.0928369621204 | Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of Q3 (September 30th 2024)? | 1727740740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719513251310 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on October 1st 2024 at 00:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will not be affected by any name changes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a company merges with another company, the company with the higher market cap before merging matters and will be considered in the future.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the case of a split, both splits will count for the future of the question, but just the larger split will count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close on September 30th, 2024, at 23:59 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/which-company-will-be-the-biggest-w", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.03089387620922, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 146.3980336541636 | 1000 | Lion | 1720185387623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 16 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "u7swhfeg83", "prob": 0.1809944578169449, "text": "Apple", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.10252676041202, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 376.0415142381288, "textFts": "'appl':1", "contractId": "3p16dgrw41", "createdTime": 1719513251310, "probChanges": {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.000878837018856618, "month": -0.005854472650128881}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.000878837018856618, "totalLiquidity": 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kwhhs3fqxy | who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-fn1abd6nmr | 1857.7835025857262 | Who will be the richest person in the world at the end of September 30th 2024? (Forbes) | 1727740740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719513826330 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved accordingly to Forbes (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#53228ca53d78", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") on October 1st 2024 at around 00:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*will be considered as one person for this question as listed by Forbes (If Forbes splits this position, the term \"Bernard Arnault & family\" will represent Bernard Arnault himself.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will not be affected by any name changes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close on September 30th 2024 at 23:59 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-deb7101aa895", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See previous market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5TySpyUzHY5ySSrEgI9i", "label": "/Lion/who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-70998f3efa11"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.716800846613737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 17.284649843738322 | 1000 | Lion | 1720185435667 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 12 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "561wbzlrg7", "prob": 0.09393825059349199, "text": "Bernard Arnault & family*", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.49749105165922, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 776.4217143102092, "textFts": "'arnault':2 'bernard':1 'famili':3", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 1719513826330, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11162538487932339}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.11162538487932339}, {"id": "z48w8roloz", "prob": 0.6742821565015132, "text": "Elon Musk", "index": 1, "poolNo": 359.69969274468644, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 173.7560561230788, "textFts": "'elon':1 'musk':2", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 1719513826330, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4495843065306812}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.4495843065306812}, {"id": "rtd4jiy8es", "prob": 0.1673561512114326, "text": "Jeff Bezos", "index": 2, "poolNo": 112.08079672070858, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 557.6334379183825, "textFts": "'bezo':2 'jeff':1", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 1719513826330, "probChanges": {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.00013715699398347825}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.00013715699398347825}, {"id": "y0vqekdgn8", "prob": 0.037871411133964285, "text": "Mark Zuckerburg", "index": 3, "poolNo": 49.599716340170986, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1260.0878515383965, "textFts": "'mark':1 'zuckerburg':2", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 1719513826330, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1637033512585799}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.1637033512585799}, {"id": "eup69apelv", "prob": 0.026552030559597952, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 41.288823350821495, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1513.7268376226677, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 1719513826330, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17439272738676126}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.17439272738676126}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720185432551 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | p52gxpey7e | {"NO": 1067.2555850119977, "YES": 936.9826816027003} | 0.5324993553858588 | will-joel-haver-make-12-films-in-12 | 90 | Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months? | 1735804740000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570991184410405 | False | basic | public | 1719515458677 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When 2024 started, youtuber Joel Haver began a project to create 12 feature-length films in 12 months. Relevant video here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_oWyt693-Q", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_oWyt693-Q", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It's been 6 months since then (wow, time flies) and Joel has successfully made 4 of his 12 films. Will he make the other 8 before 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joel has another youtube channel (linked below) where he discusses the project, go there for more information. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@joeltalksaboutmovies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@joeltalksaboutmovies", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joel's films are released on his channel here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@Joel-Haver/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@Joel-Haver/videos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0324993553858588} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.968679420943948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719529197933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719529194588 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rt8etagnxd | {"NO": 22.37986910883962, "YES": 446.83013789612244} | 0.04769691348164905 | will-trump-claim-the-cnn-debate-on | 1029.772247964449 | Will Trump claim the CNN debate on 6/27 was "rigged" or otherwise unfair towards him? | 1720155540000 | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719516742362 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if he says publicly that the debate was unfair, rigged, a witch hunt etc ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.47230308651835107, "month": -0.45230308651835094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.170720500876534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DanielRohrer | 1720240187697 | 0 | 24 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697035192027 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720154614012 | 1720240186906 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rhj2vjjoeh | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-dijak-be-back-in-the-wwe-befor | 0 | Will Dijak be back in the WWE before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719516903240 | Quantum Gambler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mirek | 1719516903277 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644464681678 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | dw9d2yld7u | {"NO": 40.23065901015913, "YES": 248.56664658351264} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-k32qnjrony | 894.710401643372 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 28 than it closed on June 27? | 1719604947889 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719518737223 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.921799592100612, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719604947889 | 100 | JimFix | 1719604947889 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719604276749 | 0.14 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | sjrnt2meeh | {"NO": 329.3051307279158, "YES": 3036.697295877353} | 0.09783270746481058 | will-givewell-fund-an-airelated-int | 2221 | Will GiveWell fund an AI-related intervention this year? | 1735718340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.771953502719047 | False | basic | public | 1719519530678 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on whether AI is mentioned as a key aspect of intervention or mitigating AI harms/expanding AI benefits is mentioned as a motivation for the intervention in GiveWell’s reasoning for making the grant.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.006027711663659535, "month": -0.4021672925351894} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.682624725750486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1719963883402 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719963880338 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y5x8hbu6ot | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-givewell-donations-be-higher-t | 0 | Will GiveWell donations be higher this year than last year? | 1735718340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719519628735 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on GiveWell’s reported donations.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719519628779 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | a546gvbm2m | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | if-joe-biden-is-elected-will-the-20 | 20 | If Biden is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? | 1748847540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719519785392 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Biden does not win re-election to POTUS. Otherwise resolves based on Wikipedia page on Israel Gaza War", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden is not elected since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once election is over.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719798973318 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719567470066 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | y6mvojbc6l | {"NO": 65.13047485722961, "YES": 153.53795626272762} | 0.29785037796105235 | if-trump-is-elected-will-the-2023-i | 55 | If Trump is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? | 1748847540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719520983180 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Trump is not elected to be the next POTUS. Otherwise resolves based on Wikipedia page on Israel Gaza War", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Trump is not elected since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once election is over.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20214962203894765} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4620437372723638, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719798936273 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719567392809 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.500000000000001 | b2jozj13on | {"NO": 356.8614510996176, "YES": 2802.2079631146535} | 0 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | 15406.866277520581 | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 1719621000000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.742677887843854 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719535907110 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the debate, I will ask Claude and ChatGPT to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. If they both choose the same winner, resolves to that (Trump = YES, Biden = NO). If they choose different winners, resolves to 50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In case one of them refuses to pick a winner, resolves to the winner picked by the other model. In case both of them refuse, which hopefully will be unlikely, then I will attempt to prompt engineer both of them to actually pick a winner. (I tested these prompts on the 2020 debates and they did pick winners.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude prompt (Claude 3.5 Sonnet)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Using the following debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?\n\n<transcript>\nPASTE TRANSCRIPT HERE\n</transcript>\n\nAgain, if you have to pick just one winner, who would it be?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ChatGPT prompt (GPT 4o)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Look up the transcript of the first 2024 Biden vs Trump debate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Using the debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(With ChatGPT, the transcript was too long to paste into the prompt, and sometimes it randomly decided to web search completely unrelated topics, so I'm not sure how reliable this will be, if it doesn't actually give an answer about the debate but instead answers about diamonds or something then it will count as an abstention.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 355.702103704226, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719621149523 | 1000 | jack | 1719634593363 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719621088450 | 1719634591983 | 0.11 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | thypzenktw | {"NO": 125.04083255329289, "YES": 7997.38756996675} | 0 | will-polymarket-give-biden-more-tha | 56219.83878000915 | Will Polymarket give biden more than 30% probability on Biden winning the election, in the next week? | 1720148256312 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.86223301343404 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719543415603 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An average of 30% or more for any 24 hour window.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719596710299", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719596710299", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.30417161790415664, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 885.2046114683629, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720148256312 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1720166482091 | 0 | 39 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720147739109 | 1720166480563 | 0.02 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jmrzwfqxxq | what-age-will-the-2028-democratic-n | 150.00000000000017 | What age will the 2028 Democratic nominee be? | 1719583201229 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.182941619232501 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1719544830042 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of the 2028 US Presidential election, what age will the Democratic nominee be? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A if there is no Democratic nominee, resolves to 85-90 if the nominee is older than 90, resolves to 35-40 if the nominee is younger than 35 (presumably will not happen). 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cpkrodfhth | how-likely-is-biden-to-win-the-2024 | 0 | How likely is Biden to win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1719662340000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719546299800 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719662340168 | jim | 1719976140387 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719976139271 | ["3sf0vwlqrr", "tk34bjwemu"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o6nlo95onn | will-chatgptclaude-pick-a-debate-wi | 4435.304682900843 | Will ChatGPT/Claude pick a debate winner? | 1719622259540 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1719546496741 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If when given the exact prompt there, Claude/ChatGPT outputs a choice of winner, resolves YES, otherwise NO", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.1573534511305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719622259540 | 100 | jack | 1719622336523 | 0 | 8 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y2f8r0becc", "prob": 0, "text": "Claude picks winner", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1317303116229596, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2209.0068405210095, "textFts": "'claud':1 'pick':2 'winner':3", "contractId": "o6nlo95onn", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "createdTime": 1719546496742, "probChanges": {"day": -0.31239536550552427, "week": -0.31239536550552427, "month": -0.31239536550552427}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.31239536550552427, "probChangeWeek": -0.31239536550552427, "resolutionTime": 1719622248487, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.31239536550552427, "resolutionProbability": 0}, {"id": "a9ki0u4mt2", "prob": 0, "text": "ChatGPT picks winner", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.3624156500542313, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1058.238841222823, "textFts": "'chatgpt':1 'pick':2 'winner':3", "contractId": "o6nlo95onn", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "createdTime": 1719546496742, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2, "week": -0.2, "month": -0.2}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2, "probChangeWeek": -0.2, "resolutionTime": 1719622259540, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.2, "resolutionProbability": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719622238700 | 1719622335288 | 0 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20892488372909662 | w4l6r8bqau | {"NO": 62070.25233574813, "YES": 23785.570449563027} | 0.40800218481229694 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | 962231.8232970547 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | 1722571140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8024318774793188 | False | plus | public | 1719546716563 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden's debate performance was not well received.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Odds chart on Polymarket as of early July 4th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhKdLq_6nWE.png?alt=media&token=02bd5ccb-b413-4ce9-af0d-344889dbdace", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible \"gray area\" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "specific", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " Biden steps down (makes a statement)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, \"Team Biden\" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.09786337615041835, "week": 0.13854188286946806, "month": -0.09199781518770306} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11993.219525523236, "platformFee": 10993.219525523236, "liquidityFee": 0} | 125086.87552205086 | 51000 | Moscow25 | 1720247538111 | 0 | 1076 | 210 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247534990 | 1720218955785 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
de6logqgzv | what-will-bidens-odds-be-on-polymar | 22393.63983486186 | What will Biden's odds be on Polymarket on Monday July 1st 2024? | 1719849040743 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | ldry6w4mu3 | public | 1719548474541 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the debate, Biden's Polymarket odds have fluctuated between 20% and 25%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1719547916796", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1719547916796", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxXa9esSt0R.png?alt=media&token=f217b58a-dc98-47ae-b0c6-06d3a16067a4", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where will Biden's odds be on Monday, July 1st, 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For resolution, we will take the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "high water mark", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " for Biden on Monday morning (before noon), Eastern Time. 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But one-minute blips will be ignored.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "We are looking for the upper bound on Biden's odds on Monday July 1st, with resolution by noon Eastern Time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "a2cf9974-8264-4943-9745-c67fbffaac6c", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1719547916796", "image": "https://poly-prod-ezwpoukjy.polymarket.dev/api/og?mslug=will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election", "title": "Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Polymarket | This is a market group on who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election (POTUS)", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 194.1542326051072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 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80eiak0rdx | if-elected-will-trump-willingly-lea | 132.8892187147752 | If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up? | 1730851140000 | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719549755326 | Muga Sofer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, \"Trump isn't elected or fails to take office\" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, \"Trump remains in office after his term is up\" resolves YES and \"Trump leaves office when his term ends\" resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "incredibly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0284491314383084, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MugaSofer | 1719927457252 | 0 | 9 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "abjt3dop8f", "prob": 0.40841418140530056, "text": "Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.869802409689246, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.193347084402234, "textFts": "'elect':4 'fail':6 'isn':2 'offic':9 'take':8 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.09158581859469944, "month": -0.09158581859469944}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.09158581859469944, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.09158581859469944}, {"id": "f0f3d863bz", "prob": 0.1508272597313616, "text": "Trump remains in office after his term is up", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.020656616381723, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.89690621082281, "textFts": "'offic':4 'remain':2 'term':7 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3491727402686384, "month": -0.3491727402686384}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3491727402686384, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.3491727402686384}, {"id": "412cw96chr", "prob": 0.35776212676212454, "text": "Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails", "index": 2, "poolNo": 10.662307059936126, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.140476025109308, "textFts": "'arguabl':4 'attempt':2 'coup':6 'coup-lik':5 'e.g':8 'fail':12 'j6':9 'like':7 'someth':3 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.14223787323787546, "month": -0.14223787323787546}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.14223787323787546, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.14223787323787546}, {"id": "6dyotd87de", "prob": 0.19, "text": "Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6.918887211969325, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.49630864050081, "textFts": "'die':10 'e.g':5 'earli':4 'impeach':7 'leav':2 'offic':3 'trump':1 'via':6", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.31, "month": -0.31}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.31, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.31}, {"id": "9ik5ma2j3z", "prob": 0.46007023884833337, "text": "Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave", "index": 4, "poolNo": 13.186981498868487, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.475992945813436, "textFts": "'leav':13 'offic':6 'public':2 'shouldn':9 'suggest':3 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.03992976115166663, "month": -0.03992976115166663}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.03992976115166663, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.03992976115166663}, {"id": "tuy3trnpew", "prob": 0.35776212676212454, "text": "Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving", "index": 5, "poolNo": 10.662307059936126, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.140476025109308, "textFts": "'hospitalis':5 'kill':3 'leav':11 'prevent/protest':9 'someon':6 'support':2 'tri':7 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.14223787323787546, "month": -0.14223787323787546}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.14223787323787546, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.14223787323787546}, {"id": "saqwelwevo", "prob": 0.6163494689641498, "text": "Trump leaves office when his term ends", "index": 6, "poolNo": 18.107044595910732, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.27084166452821, "textFts": "'end':7 'leav':2 'offic':3 'term':6 'trump':1", "contractId": "80eiak0rdx", "createdTime": 1719549755326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.23894990111493403, "month": -0.23894990111493403}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.23894990111493403, "totalLiquidity": 14.285714285714285, "probChangeMonth": -0.23894990111493403}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671421079598 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719927454168 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | ye88cy1l8s | {"NO": 90.96112163134528, "YES": 109.9370788382406} | 0.45277220711151145 | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-biden-up48yj095i | 55 | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Biden and Trump debate a second time in 2024? | 1727755140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719551671386 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.045932826463196796, "month": -0.04722779288848855} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8249770912645176, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719890834623 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719890831454 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | aexns5j8am | {"NO": 133.94357369819193, "YES": 74.6583036714585} | 0.6421014776431702 | is-it-joever | 200 | Is it Joever? | 1722484740000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719554106564 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the odds of Joe Biden winning the presidency is less than 33.3% at market close (end of July EST) according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Election Betting Odds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.14210147764317016} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.041824206951294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | thepurplebull | 1720057439047 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719573445558 | 1720057436997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f54ic2pdbz | is-it-ethical-to-use-a-magical-devi | 0 | Is it ethical to use a magical device that reveals the identity behind anonymous accounts? | 1722203940000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719555026225 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lately i have been interacting with many anonymous accounts online and a part of me would love to know who the people behind these accounts are. so today i was wondering what i would do if i actually had a magical device that would reveal the identify behind any anonymous account. would i use it? would it be ethical to use such as device or would it be an invasion of someone else's privacy?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Soli | 1719878372075 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719878370905 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fykikysjvv | was-the-first-us-presidential-debat | 0 | Was the First US Presidential Debate boring? | 1719886773922 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719555366427 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll determines the resolution of this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-the-first-us-election-debate-b", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719886800536 | Bayesian | 1719886775885 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719577076320 | ["rjm6oxamyh"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | xx7p9h263z | {"NO": 802.1306817747497, "YES": 1246.679652980553} | 0.3915104625194853 | will-there-be-another-jan-6th-if-bi | 743 | Will there be another Jan 6th if Biden is elected? | 1738389540000 | rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577896475375002 | False | basic | public | 1719555452490 | blue rat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump seems to once again be refusing to say whether he will accept a loss. Will it result in similar consequences?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By Jan 6th I mean an act of violence where Trump could have spoken against it but chose not to or where the motivation for the violence was based on misinformation that Trump spread. In the case it's ambiguous, I'll decide. If Trump is elected this will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.019114599003226818, "month": -0.10848953748051471} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.03570041605679, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | bluerat | 1719667262605 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671838735235 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719667259563 | 1719601983398 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | mjnu7qv2gk | {"NO": 11.719429383378838, "YES": 853.2838650133035} | 0 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec-vpw87xrund | 1693.459097652618 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by the end of June 2024? | 1719812317241 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719558557056 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: 6/30/2024 - Resolving this as \"No.\" While calls for Biden to step aside and let another candidate accept the Democratic nomination are proliferating, there has been no official announcement as of end-of-day June 30 Eastern that Biden will not seek a second term. Thank you for participating in this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there is an official announcement that Biden will not seek a second term by the end of the day on Sunday, June 30, this market will resolve \"yes.\" ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will occasionally take positions in this market where the odds favor the opposite resolution to add liquidity and interest, given that the resolution criteria are clear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03875286044382391, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.588374211248567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719812317241 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719812317241 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 21 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808724246 | 0.01 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ikjd17verm | {"NO": 232.27015398012117, "YES": 43.05331455050334} | 0.8436264268343167 | will-gavin-newsom-complete-his-seco | 135 | Will Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California? | 1799222340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719559851338 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom completes his second term as Governor of California, which is scheduled to end on January 5, 2027. The market resolves to \"No\" if he leaves office for any reason before this date, including resignation, impeachment, or removal.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Gavin Newsom remains Governor of California until January 5, 2027.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Gavin Newsom leaves office before January 5, 2027.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Sources", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary source for resolving this market will be official announcements from the Office of the Governor of California and reputable news outlets confirming the status of Gavin Newsom's governorship.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.34362642683431666} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7298460198788606, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719592068669 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719592065536 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | d8f53u6t4d | {"NO": 65.13536931605174, "YES": 153.5264189794903} | 0.29788181018630994 | will-conor-mcgregor-announce-a-run | 55 | Will Conor McGregor Announce a Run for Political Office in Ireland by the End of 2025? | 1735718340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719560440576 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if Conor McGregor publicly announces his candidacy for any political office in Ireland by December 31, 2025. The market resolves to \"No\" if he does not make such an announcement by this date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Conor McGregor makes a public announcement declaring his intention to run for any political office in Ireland by December 31, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Conor McGregor does not make any such announcement by December 31, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Sources", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary source for resolving this market will be official announcements from Conor McGregor, reputable news outlets, and verified social media accounts.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20211818981369006} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4735810205096926, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719591588761 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719591585709 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0ucbo6lstq | who-will-represent-the-united-state-uimxdn71vl | 4723.068422496962 | Who will represent the United States in the men's 5000m run at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1719791175624 | Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719560928855 | William Lane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Race will close after Olympic Trials finals on Sunday, June 30th, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.54226454698512, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719791175624 | 1600 | wglane | 1719791175624 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6j7SyA4Olku7rWuXSwdVy275j7x7ZjGOUjBEiHnA=s96-c | 4 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "c642b62adk", "prob": 0.92, "text": "Grant Fisher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 346.13804219232327, "userId": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.890207897009276, "textFts": "'fisher':2 'grant':1", "contractId": 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0.5000000000000001 | yjoj2k5g1w | {"NO": 110.4810419854507, "YES": 90.51326653234234} | 0.5496724897345557 | will-a-democratic-senator-call-on-b | 70 | Will a Democratic Senator call on Biden to not seek reelection? | 1733029140000 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719563028168 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden announces he will not seek reelection or the election occurs before any Democrat Senator calls on him to not run, this resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bernie Sanders and Angus King count as Democrats, Krysten Sinema doesn’t.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.07021041562616664, "month": 0.049672489734555736} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3454927869282836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CharlieBauer | 1720024933967 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720024930582 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4937523088120459 | ym66bnks5l | {"NO": 9638.0940668623, "YES": 10383.920354197919} | 0.4751387245821101 | will-manifold-implement-some-form-o | 718.4806921433134 | Will Manifold implement some form of automatic growth of invested mana? | 1751147940000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7275258464047853 | False | plus | public | 1719566261289 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prediction markets suck at predictions with the timespan of more than a few months because investments in any other asset grow organically with the market, while bets in the prediction markets don't.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are other challenges for prediction markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://eterevsky.substack.com/p/why-is-the-demand-for-prediction", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", but this is in my opinion the biggest one. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "BccUN71MAdUbBlz82yXzlgE765k2", "label": "RobinHanson"}}, {"text": " seems to think that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "prediction market investments should track index funds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/robinhanson/status/1802706248296493095", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The commenters on \"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "FGRLtumlP7jE3KtIiQ7s", "label": "/Eliza/recommend-market-structures-that-in"}}, {"text": "\" think that there should be some sort of interest on investments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold implement any kind of growth or interest mechanism for invested mana?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes on 2025-06-28 or on the last day of Manifest 2025, whatever comes first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet on my own markets.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.00025278929509470194, "month": -0.024861275417889905} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.163616511898056, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | OlegEterevsky | 1719820891598 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719820888098 | 1719667718178 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rmqowryzty | is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre | 73159.06023048908 | Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)? | 1722196800000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719570595227 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two out of the three markets are within the following ranges", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too much, I'll extend the closing time of this market by another 24 hours.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf", "label": "/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964"}}, {"text": " [Biden's odds are at 30%]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden <25%: Underreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden >35%: Overreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If 25%<= Biden <= 35%: Reacting sanely", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cUOurcNrp3XX9tbDu6zH", "label": "/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e"}}, {"text": " [Not before Election Day at 51%]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Not before Election Day <40%: Overreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If 40%<= Not before Election Day <=60%: Reacting sanely", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ", "label": "/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38"}}, {"text": " [Biden at 75%]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden <65%: Underreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden >85%: Overreacting", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the unexpected occurrence that there is a market in each category, I'll resolve this market as \"Reacting sanely\". The percentage shown on the website/app UI matters, not the exact percentage shown by the API. If markets resolve, the percentage will be counted as either 0% or 100% according to the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1099.6265217165455, "platformFee": 81.33359447096797, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1635.138181130467 | 1000 | Lion | 1720244365457 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 306 | 17 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zxz1jbf7lu", "prob": 0.14433586111443827, "text": "Overreacting (Biden's odds will recover)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 145.20797359712762, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 860.8342703466549, "textFts": "'biden':2 'odd':4 'overreact':1 'recov':6", "contractId": "rmqowryzty", "createdTime": 1719570595227, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08835999779223916, "week": -0.24945421418840868, "month": -0.22357534170954396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08835999779223916, "probChangeWeek": -0.24945421418840868, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.22357534170954396}, {"id": "4cen9462m8", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Reacting sanely (Biden's odds will stay about the same)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 154.30334996209191, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 810.0925873009825, "textFts": "'biden':3 'odd':5 'react':1 'sane':2 'stay':7", "contractId": "rmqowryzty", "createdTime": 1719570595227, "probChanges": {"day": -0.012368852951615106, "week": -0.12238206802711138, "month": -0.2057021862849484}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.012368852951615106, "probChangeWeek": -0.12238206802711138, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.2057021862849484}, {"id": "4dsqnniaf0", "prob": 0.6956641388855618, "text": "Underreacting (Biden's odds will fall even further)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 534.5375879743282, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 233.8469787946954, "textFts": "'biden':2 'even':7 'fall':6 'odd':4 'underreact':1", "contractId": "rmqowryzty", "createdTime": 1719570595227, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10072885074385407, "week": 0.37183628221551995, "month": 0.4292775279944923}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.10072885074385407, "probChangeWeek": 0.37183628221551995, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.4292775279944923}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720244362361 | 1719995751913 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vj4n0n0rnh | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-overwatch-2-reintroduce-6v6-as | 50 | Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode? | 1735707540000 | CJ2YnpZx3NZppGiaNclALGg4wTI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719572061559 | Brytan Hogan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023590158543515094, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BrytanHogan | 1719793342037 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK86Vc12U-oa-bqz-GoJApsHDwYmg_KEudRzJIXfKuOXvDnEt3o3A=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714148172288 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719793338963 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | df55n4cleo | {"NO": 100.2154340804151, "YES": 99.78502904029511} | 0.5010760101086872 | will-i-reach-expert-in-cf-at-the-en | 10 | Will i Reach expert in CF at the end of 2024 | 1735645260000 | sCzmGY7e5QPGhtSw7CUlx2XLONK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719574927882 | arjun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "id-", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/a79573420", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/a79573420", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.02466616865220228, "month": 0.0010760101086871865} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3379826810446662, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | arjunnith | 1719820790903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSaHf6QIPPJ_8JX7upsKSLfU6yOAc1RZWEE77SgrB2SzX2Tg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719574314406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719820787837 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | cz5bgp106i | {"NO": 954.8465974830013, "YES": 1047.288645774121} | 0.47691413489611895 | will-disney-announce-a-new-version | 51 | Will Disney announce a new version of Peoplemover for Disneyland at D23 2024? | 1723348740000 | aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570664789442787 | False | basic | public | 1719575277316 | Twirlnhurl | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces that they are working on a new version of the Peoplemover at D23 in the Disney Experiences Showcase on August 10, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be considered a new version of the Peoplemover, this attraction would need to be a ride that has portions with views above Tomorrowland AND has at least two of the following characteristics:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) includes \"Peoplemover\" or \"WEDway\" in the name", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) uses existing Peoplemover track structure for a portion of the ride", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) rebuilds portions of the Peoplemover track on the same alignment for the new ride", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4) has a station in the old peoplemover station building", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5) rebuilds the old peoplemover station with approximately similar characteristics and location ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This can resolve to YES if a new ride was announced that uses portions of the Peoplemover track and station as a part of an Incredibles ride, but would resolve to NO if an attraction called Peoplemover was announced that took place entirely inside of a show building, offering no aerial views of Tomorrowland. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.0005042934396340404, "month": -0.023085865103881054} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6875701315963028, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Twirlnhurl | 1719934941966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Lb14lpZOF1yxUurWsRBNKkKHGy5ib1gI3DeQU=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670325871151 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719934938891 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ntzm68c91n | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-explaining-grokking-through-ci | 0 | Will "Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719576540686 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JK2QGfNGLjuFnrEvz/explaining-grokking-through-circuit-efficiency", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719576540716 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ywi7zhpknx | if-the-first-presidential-debate-ha | 0 | If the first presidential debate had been hit by a giant meteor, would that be a good thing? | 1722236340000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719578973065 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JonathanRay | 1719578973065 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k5cx7p28q1 | is-moloch-pronounced-correctly-in-t | 0 | Is "moloch" pronounced correctly in this song? | D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719579549805 | P. Jain | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least once: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://youtu.be/aDD2Mg2g_aI?feature=shared&t=804", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/aDD2Mg2g_aI?feature=shared&t=804", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | logaems | 1719589999889 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLogaems%2Flove-images%2Fmrjjwft5DS.37?alt=media&token=f563a08f-6e8a-40cb-b796-89cad49e1476 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686156720394 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719589998745 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4u1p5l5gs5 | {"NO": 1644.294287438749, "YES": 608.1636405595381} | 0.7299999999999999 | will-they-ship-the-dark-brandons-se | 1010.9353202682041 | Will they ship the Dark Brandon's Secret Sauce | 1723348740000 | vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60914857140422 | False | basic | public | 1719580060482 | ii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe Biden's Twitter account posted this before the debate:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaQah2OWsQo.png?alt=media&token=a756f1dd-d53f-40dd-a9d5-c01b237f71f5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Linking to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://shop.joebiden.com/dark-brandons-secret-sauce/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://shop.joebiden.com/dark-brandons-secret-sauce/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it still ship?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "update: release date updated from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July 18th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240628003607/https://shop.joebiden.com/dark-brandons-secret-sauce/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "August 1st", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240630074527/https://shop.joebiden.com/dark-brandons-secret-sauce/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", moving the close date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fv8NfFxtVE0.png?alt=media&token=8f72e4cd-1e5b-4664-81c2-68b3e0c9da25", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023469434490779095, "month": 0.22999999999999987} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.306187007922148, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | i_i | 1719760699848 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704829711671 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719717263048 | 1719598390313 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0elk8og2xu | how-do-you-think-biden-performed-in | 0 | How well do you think Biden performed in the first 2024 Presidential Debate? | 1720249140000 | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719583164136 | JTX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JTX | 1719583272036 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWpw3Ji0_FKBH_hj2ajSiZIzdEesxe7nRROOtu1r8g=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709796917854 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0o1r71ylmo | ufc-302-main-event-predictions | 50 | UFC 302 Main Event predictions: | 1719871140000 | urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719584575214 | Ess Ay | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6153080369162411, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Snga | 1719584719517 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "lfzywzkpb6", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Jiri Prochazka", "index": 0, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'jiri':1 'prochazka':2", "contractId": "0o1r71ylmo", "createdTime": 1719584575214, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "n4yd73rhwr", "prob": 0.5460535652294758, "text": "Alex Pereira", "index": 1, "poolNo": 548.3846919630838, "userId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 455.8843521051998, "textFts": "'alex':1 'pereira':2", "contractId": "0o1r71ylmo", "createdTime": 1719584575214, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717080381102 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719584716085 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | a8l9ovdu3v | {"NO": 974.6714915382174, "YES": 10.259867131455849} | 1 | will-i-solve-janestreet-puzzle-in-j | 923.1800549957596 | Will I solve Janestreet puzzle in June? | 1719931456672 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719584692452 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if I appear on the correct submissions list.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/current-puzzle/", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5327102803738317, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.683734411155839, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719931456672 | 100 | KongoLandwalker | 1719931456672 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719931446248 | 1719931425638 | 0.99 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | 0 |
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