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0.5000000000000002 | paitses2f9 | {"NO": 24.433227250652124, "YES": 409.27872103891224} | 0.05633514904767966 | will-china-have-invaded-taiwan-by-d | 2088.1206667994334 | Will 🇨🇳 China have invaded Taiwan 🇹🇼 by December 31st? 🏳️ | 1735718340000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719493947804 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "'s invasion of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Taiwan", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "'s territory by military force taking place ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0018549123885781352, "month": -0.44366485095232033} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.71619493289246, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoaoDavid | 1719941412669 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 22 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719941409617 | 1719517467200 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999888 | j85p3jl2wp | {"NO": 9949.87437106637, "YES": 100.50378152591963} | 1 | will-switzerland-beat-italy-euro-20 | 25755.09452600764 | Will Switzerland beat Italy? | Euro 2024 | 1719684176908 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441922888 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719496763490 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.6191377165461389, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 233.6678533028052, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719684176908 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719686282314 | 0 | 54 | 30 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719684174033 | 1719686280908 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999806 | 91jn0f6h9c | {"NO": 9949.874371066258, "YES": 100.50378152592111} | 1 | will-germany-beat-denmark-euro-2024 | 15210.142153994475 | Will Germany beat Denmark? | Euro 2024 | 1719696086900 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84972144192303 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719496820233 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.17113402939160216, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 136.56467439742994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719696086900 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719696086900 | 0 | 32 | 17 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719695821676 | 1719690676333 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.643748521393043 | 46voloxc25 | {"NO": 12064.42611050842, "YES": 220.2069604321276} | 1 | will-spain-beat-georgia-euro-2024 | 31741.847266315865 | Will Spain beat Georgia? | Euro 2024 | 1719780753228 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719496944321 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09451239591716909, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 298.4564548718781, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719780753228 | 1250 | 10thOfficial | 1719780753228 | 0 | 31 | 18 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719780191118 | 1719779257756 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999756 | cuobj02tk5 | {"NO": 9902.96029264354, "YES": 100.97990605322931} | 1 | will-portugal-beat-slovenia-euro-20 | 25880.867888706725 | Will Portugal beat Slovenia? | Euro 2024 | 1719870249459 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849981476669242 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719497008597 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.20175109528643265, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 365.69212015313184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719870249459 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719870249459 | 0 | 32 | 17 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719870194479 | 0.99 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000006 | 5f3gis94w1 | {"NO": 100.50378152592117, "YES": 9949.87437106621} | 0 | will-austria-beat-turkiye-euro-2024 | 22484.271806687506 | Will Austria beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024 | 1719953600076 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923041 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719497214024 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.7166829818449045, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 354.99794577756893, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719953600076 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1719953600076 | 0 | 52 | 19 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719953579814 | 1719501290387 | 0.01 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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deqrvgy5xj | apex-legends-global-series-2024-whi | 6.217918003099467 | APEX LEGENDS GLOBAL SERIES 2024: Which team will win the Asia-Pacific North Regional Finals, Sat. July 6th 7AM WEST? | 1720245600000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719500187727 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Apex Legends", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://battlefy.com/apex-legends-global-series-year-4/pro-league-split-2/asia-pacific-north", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2753172817199976, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 6.217918003099467 | 200 | JoaoDavid | 1720239674506 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 2 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "rypvzpxtzc", "prob": 0.14000000000000004, "text": "FNATIC", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.256312147150371, "userId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.860203189637986, "textFts": "'fnatic':1", "contractId": "deqrvgy5xj", "createdTime": 1719500187727, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720239670918 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ayxq3jgv0b | apex-legends-global-series-2024-whi-1xu3v8zsfl | 0 | APEX LEGENDS GLOBAL SERIES 2024: Which team will win the Asia-Pacific South Regional Finals, Sun. July 7th 8AM WEST? | 1720335600000 | kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719500569448 | João David | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Apex Legends", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://battlefy.com/apex-legends-global-series-year-4/pro-league-split-2/asia-pacific-south", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | JoaoDavid | 1719500612752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJRbvx9Y_HS1wyd5cTX0oznD0RcgOTR2iCyysIsRGd7xwE9oq4=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "judk6pevgq", "prob": 0.05, "text": "Legends Gaming", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.2631578947368425, "userId": "kTsMMJmThScMT9qM1Ka9OcrLo7K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'game':2 'legend':1", "contractId": "ayxq3jgv0b", "createdTime": 1719500569448, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719351220393 | 0 | 0.25 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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abffqppn8v | manifold-demographics-whats-your-ed | 0 | [Manifold Demographics] What’s your education level? | kkuoCvOuSrfyV9rySO6oEv0sYUo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719502909991 | CC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Survey on manifold demographics", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | cheshirecat | 1719502909991 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703142682566 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999944 | zguwq4erjy | {"NO": 4292.092172294952, "YES": 232.98660882795477} | 1 | will-trump-claim-on-truth-social-th | 11192.303397331843 | Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending? | 1719594430081 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.903964108512978 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719503862536 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump posts something indicating or closely related to winning the debate according to my common sense judgment ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before June 28th, 11 PM ET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". For... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 141.45239546899376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719594430081 | 1000 | Lion | 1719594430081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 38 | 36 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719591770996 | 1719594420025 | 0.95 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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url2vico9x | how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20 | 15152.09260817824 | How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe? | 2556172740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 2.2844344465023907 | False | premium | public | 1719507075652 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer resolves PROB to the percent attributable, based on scientific consensus in 2050. They will sum to 100%. This might be a little subjective so I won't trade on it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 407.2940365120027, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100000 | JonathanRay | 1720150830577 | 0 | 18 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "wjzwp36rfy", "prob": 0.2877318728797629, "text": "improved diet", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7645.139058934329, "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18925.219596219154, "textFts": "'diet':2 'improv':1", "contractId": "url2vico9x", "createdTime": 1719507075652, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720150582618 | 1720150829325 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ynkgeh2b7m | {"NO": 774.5298267022673, "YES": 1291.105862582106} | 1 | time-machine-coin-flip-35 | 300 | Time Machine Coin Flip 3/5 | 1719730740000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580496984601167 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719507356709 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over 10 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.6250404508790229, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.894137417893832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719730905933 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719730740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719510217162 | 0.37 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1sutju93x3 | will-oakland-mayor-sheng-thao-resig | 632.6232145509821 | Will Oakland mayor Sheng Thao resign, or be recalled by voters (on ballot in November)? Multiple questions. | 1730869140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719509040063 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In late June 2024, Oakland mayor Sheng Thao's house was raided by the FBI, investigating corruption.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/sf/oakland-mayor-defiant-after-fbi-raid-attorney-resigns-amid... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.767431102353743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719686057650 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e4rqvu6s1q", "prob": 0.6738662009311223, "text": "Mayor Sheng Thao will resign before August 1st?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 159.71526368638973, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.29805359484702, "textFts": "'1st':8 'august':7 'mayor':1 'resign':5 'sheng':2 'thao':3", "contr... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719686054581 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10464685998694001 | ztomkvqqc2 | {"NO": 9331.475079204254, "YES": 11549.718525959162} | 0.08628249336415499 | will-there-be-proof-that-joe-biden | 17064.483708855874 | Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign? | 1730879940000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.239684725574461 | False | plus | public | 1719509987351 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if, before November 5th 2024, there is proof that Joe Biden has used any drug considered a stimulant besides caffeine at any point this year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.010248651725082839, "month": -0.413717506635845} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 193.12184413296464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720105570313 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720105567258 | 1719547583447 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2gr1420t5d | {"NO": 728.494146146479, "YES": 1372.6946267031888} | 0.3467057103862606 | will-bronny-james-score-more-than-1 | 1185 | Will Bronny James score more than 1000 points in his NBA career? | 1856663940000 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58598100973223 | False | basic | public | 1719510006059 | Paper Boy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve based on his ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "basketball-reference.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://basketball-reference.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.06059762725294782, "month": -0.15329428961373942} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.26189501296317, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PaperBoy | 1719792867535 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699382550755 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719792864473 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kfwx877tnp | how-many-people-will-come-to-our-ma | 4806.304907130246 | How many people will come to our manifold & AI hackathon on July 4th? | 1720162740000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719511444941 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We’re hosting an AI-themed hackathon, join us!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://partiful.com/e/S9Qwb9ZFpthte0wJ38WL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.38919041706042, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ian | 1720149748486 | 0 | 8 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6uaevdjbsa", "prob": 0.049077672902231625, "text": "1-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.79891785332261, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 984.2729355843883, "textFts": "'-5':2 '1':1", "contractId": "kfwx877tnp", "createdTime": 1719511444941, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00146305701... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644802294323 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720149745402 | 1720149511377 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kj435rhe9w | {"NO": 1145.264713822203, "YES": 873.1605784505514} | 0.5674050549240942 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1120 | 150 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1120 of One Piece on July 11th? | 1720767540000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573191668140852 | False | basic | public | 1719511819130 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.06740505492409421} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.735286177796951, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719531781268 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719531777853 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49921094138640654 | s7b3q9x08b | {"NO": 5686.463770859702, "YES": 17616.897024840484} | 0.24343726937959154 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | 53328.19742668804 | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 1722117540000 | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.875121388817392 | False | plus | public | 1719512559133 | Patrik Cihal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES at the resolution date iff I believe that listening to music leads to higher utility for an individual. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Leading ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.01247009582546521, "week": -0.2550683477807907, "month": -0.25656273062040846} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1083.426404744199, "platformFee": 83.4264047441991, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1150 | 10000 | patrik | 1720242722000 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690398218800 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242718942 | 1720188978496 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | z1zo0229jt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jon-stewart-or-stephen-colbert | 0 | Will Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert be on the Bridges podcast by the end of 2025? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719512606839 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719512606865 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3p16dgrw41 | which-company-will-be-the-biggest-w-rhslpzd319 | 1875.0928369621204 | Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of Q3 (September 30th 2024)? | 1727740740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719513251310 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.03089387620922, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 146.3980336541636 | 1000 | Lion | 1720185387623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 16 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "u7swhfeg83", "prob": 0.1809944578169449, "text": "Apple", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.10252676041202, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 376.0415142381288, "textFts": "'appl':1", "contractId": "3p16dgrw41", "createdTime": 1719513251310, "probChanges": {"day": -1.387778780781445... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720185384507 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kwhhs3fqxy | who-will-be-the-richest-person-in-t-fn1abd6nmr | 1857.7835025857262 | Who will be the richest person in the world at the end of September 30th 2024? (Forbes) | 1727740740000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719513826330 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved accordingly to Forbes (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#53228c... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.716800846613737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 17.284649843738322 | 1000 | Lion | 1720185435667 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 12 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "561wbzlrg7", "prob": 0.09393825059349199, "text": "Bernard Arnault & family*", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.49749105165922, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 776.4217143102092, "textFts": "'arnault':2 'bernard':1 'famili':3", "contractId": "kwhhs3fqxy", "createdTime": 171951382... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720185432551 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | p52gxpey7e | {"NO": 1067.2555850119977, "YES": 936.9826816027003} | 0.5324993553858588 | will-joel-haver-make-12-films-in-12 | 90 | Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months? | 1735804740000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570991184410405 | False | basic | public | 1719515458677 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When 2024 started, youtuber Joel Haver began a project to create 12 feature-length films in 12 months. Relevant video here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_oWyt693-Q", "type": "text", "marks": [... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0324993553858588} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.968679420943948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719529197933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719529194588 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rt8etagnxd | {"NO": 22.37986910883962, "YES": 446.83013789612244} | 0.04769691348164905 | will-trump-claim-the-cnn-debate-on | 1029.772247964449 | Will Trump claim the CNN debate on 6/27 was "rigged" or otherwise unfair towards him? | 1720155540000 | bzaLzQXeU3NwzawClYtJkNxc5fj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719516742362 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if he says publicly that the debate was unfair, rigged, a witch hunt etc ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.47230308651835107, "month": -0.45230308651835094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.170720500876534, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DanielRohrer | 1720240187697 | 0 | 24 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697035192027 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720154614012 | 1720240186906 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rhj2vjjoeh | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-dijak-be-back-in-the-wwe-befor | 0 | Will Dijak be back in the WWE before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1719516903240 | Quantum Gambler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mirek | 1719516903277 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644464681678 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | dw9d2yld7u | {"NO": 40.23065901015913, "YES": 248.56664658351264} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-k32qnjrony | 894.710401643372 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 28 than it closed on June 27? | 1719604947889 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719518737223 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.921799592100612, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719604947889 | 100 | JimFix | 1719604947889 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719604276749 | 0.14 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | sjrnt2meeh | {"NO": 329.3051307279158, "YES": 3036.697295877353} | 0.09783270746481058 | will-givewell-fund-an-airelated-int | 2221 | Will GiveWell fund an AI-related intervention this year? | 1735718340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.771953502719047 | False | basic | public | 1719519530678 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on whether AI is mentioned as a key aspect of intervention or mitigating AI harms/expanding AI benefits is mentioned as a motivation for the intervention in GiveWell’s reasoning for making the grant.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.006027711663659535, "month": -0.4021672925351894} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.682624725750486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1719963883402 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719963880338 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y5x8hbu6ot | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-givewell-donations-be-higher-t | 0 | Will GiveWell donations be higher this year than last year? | 1735718340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719519628735 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on GiveWell’s reported donations.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719519628779 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | a546gvbm2m | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | if-joe-biden-is-elected-will-the-20 | 20 | If Biden is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? | 1748847540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719519785392 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Biden does not win re-election to POTUS. Otherwise resolves based on Wikipedia page on Israel Gaza War", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08766220117740475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6184248869639486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719798973318 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719567470066 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | tcax82hmav | {"NO": 716.8101200524927, "YES": 13.950695895961559} | 1 | will-trump-get-the-last-word-in-the | 1192.3860075313776 | Will Trump get the last word in the debate? | 1719543850493 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719520747392 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is the last one to speak after Biden, even if moderators or other presenters talk after him during the broadcast, this will resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.741882911740069, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719543850493 | 100 | strutheo | 1719543850493 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719543749728 | 1719521738787 | 0.98 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | y6mvojbc6l | {"NO": 65.13047485722961, "YES": 153.53795626272762} | 0.29785037796105235 | if-trump-is-elected-will-the-2023-i | 55 | If Trump is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? | 1748847540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719520983180 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Trump is not elected to be the next POTUS. Otherwise resolves based on Wikipedia page on Israel Gaza War", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized reso... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20214962203894765} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4620437372723638, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DismalScientist | 1719798936273 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719567392809 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b1e4k7he0l | which-one-of-the-three-jonas-brothe | 2 | Which one of the three Jonas brothers will die first? | 2082776340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719521276369 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.058642971666452735, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719529618598 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8981g4jcec", "prob": 0.3220759859642985, "text": "Nick", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.36933453770185, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.29397350043032, "textFts": "'nick':1", "contractId": "b1e4k7he0l", "createdTime": 1719521276369, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mont... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719529615527 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5cguuokd5b | which-one-of-the-three-jonas-brothe-d64l1hy0y | 2 | Which one of the three Jonas brothers will die last? | 2082776340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719521298513 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.058642971666452735, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719529634292 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bn0cplauil", "prob": 0.35584802807140303, "text": "Nick", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.27804899020138, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.568219408758345, "textFts": "'nick':1", "contractId": "5cguuokd5b", "createdTime": 1719521298513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719529631221 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0dnur3hglv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | which-of-the-current-seven-mms-spok | 0 | Which of the current seven M&M's spokescandies will be replaced or removed first? | 1719521475331 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719521454376 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "market open until the lineup changes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if they add a new one without removing/replacing one of these seven, market will continue to stay open", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "att... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719521475331 | 100 | strutheo | 1719521475331 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3a3ocyh8zh | which-of-the-current-seven-mms-spok-i2ms2m873r | 50 | Which of the current seven M&M's spokescandies will be replaced or removed first? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719521543899 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "market open until the lineup changes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if they add a new one without removing/replacing one of these seven, market will continue to stay open", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3349902486487829, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719521713165 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hx6anh8kwg", "prob": 0.16858770725228062, "text": "brown", "color": "#795548", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.191769193680228, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.33041005350141, "textFts": "'brown':1", "contractId": "3a3ocyh8zh", "createdTime": 1719521543900, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719521555785 | 1719521710647 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2lbjcihrsp | will-trump-or-biden-get-a-postdebat | 3472.0791625301486 | Will Trump or Biden get a post-debate bump? | 1720421940000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719521732379 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according 538’s polling average among polls conducted in 10 days after the debate vs. polling average pre-debate. “Shift” means change in gap between Trump and Biden.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.30188204455844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720071954378 | 0 | 22 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "tx8wur61iy", "prob": 0.07054963969871693, "text": "Under .5 percentage point shift either way", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.70340340240686, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 641.6389372586557, "textFts": "'5':2 'either':6 'percentag':3 'point':4 'shift':5 'way':7", "contractId... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720071951296 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8a7jqweyqd | which-of-the-current-seven-mms-spok-suu1nwhbil | 30.086930566593754 | Which of the current seven M&M's spokescandies would Manifold vote for in a presidential election? | 1722139140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719521865384 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll after market close", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "explore their personalities here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.mms.com/en-us/explore/mms-characters", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7263881811326595, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719543130228 | 0 | 5 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "swl1ap8il4", "prob": 0.10921751240788527, "text": "brown", "color": "#795548", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.147508561601203, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.29537146763822, "textFts": "'brown':1", "contractId": "8a7jqweyqd", "createdTime": 1719521865384, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719543121027 | 1719521955056 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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q8oy48y2oy | whos-gonna-poop-their-pants-at-the | 3007.787107389867 | Who's gonna poop their pants at the debate? | 1719633540000 | AQnWpvBi3eMG8wR73ZLdCuhPQId2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | pupwtlrg4i | public | 1719522406389 | Samuel Ortega | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.154530288495595, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719893396698 | 100 | SamuelOrtega | 1719893428416 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIe0rogvYSEhMQ-1DAxu4QXe3P49sG6xFleKm9LO1kkx78cjLg=s96-c | 12 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hf4as088rr", "prob": 0.00029586099150448437, "text": "Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4966123162121221, "userId": "AQnWpvBi3eMG8wR73ZLdCuhPQId2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1678.0359772177987, "textFts": "'trump':1", "contractId": "q8oy48y2oy", "resolverId": "AQnWpvBi3eMG8wR73ZLdCuhPQId2", "createdTime": 171... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712997133563 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719633461870 | 1719535890178 | {"pupwtlrg4i": 100} | AQnWpvBi3eMG8wR73ZLdCuhPQId2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | bvy2ourmrc | {"NO": 952.9784942793204, "YES": 1049.3416231352005} | 0.4759371321254302 | will-a-second-presidential-debate-t | 7201.116388360425 | Will a second presidential debate take place between Trump and Biden in 2024? | 1731128340000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570693484538243 | False | basic | public | 1719522441776 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is not tied to any specific network or date. If Trump and Biden both personally attend a second debate, town hall, or other presidential forum / confrontation before election day, this market will resolve Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.027082809107592865, "week": -0.13165158430136126, "month": -0.024062867874569793} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 194.94314365601178, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 507.9467997272374 | 1000 | Panfilo | 1720200586709 | 0 | 54 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200583246 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | ixvppzzvtb | {"NO": 20.682491094543337, "YES": 483.50075212353465} | 0 | will-the-june-27-cnn-debate-moderat | 587.0390855603841 | Will the June 27 CNN debate moderators ask Joe Biden about a potential pardon for his son, Hunter Biden? | 1719582592919 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719525390213 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.171247232849359, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719582592919 | 100 | KevinBurke | 1719582592919 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719578287822 | 0.04 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | sh8ze1ekjf | {"NO": 59.43724718111347, "YES": 168.24466936580387} | 0 | cnn-debate-moderators-ask-biden-abo | 70 | CNN debate moderators ask Biden about a potential pardon for Hunter Biden AND don't ask Donald Trump about his pardons | 1719582630485 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719525497903 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump pardoned a number of people who committed crimes in the process of helping him get elected, in addition to Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7553306341961188, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719582630485 | 100 | KevinBurke | 1719582630485 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719555007457 | 0.26 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | co495ppzq1 | {"NO": 9949.874371066207, "YES": 100.50378152592157} | 1 | will-india-defeat-south-africa-in-t | 25284.42118850607 | Will India defeat South Africa in the 2024 T20 Twenty20 World Cup final? | 1719684298890 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923055 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719525617771 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.28000000000000014, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 339.240896215003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719684298890 | 1000 | KevinBurke | 1719684298890 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719684293206 | 0.99 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 8p7stbdps9 | {"NO": 1564.6967316604712, "YES": 639.1014819458278} | 0 | short-fuse-will-trump-and-biden-sha | 9011.93638289974 | [Short Fuse] Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June? | 1719536185257 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60172515637696 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719526806113 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 169.7042767142829, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719546396435 | 1000 | nikki | 1719536185257 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719534754471 | 1719543958345 | 0.71 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u135s4w1vl | bronny-james-20242025-nba-season-pr | 1060 | Bronny James 2024-2025 NBA season prop bets | 1751342340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719527206281 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.04382331558745, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dglid | 1720050417336 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 9 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6c6m0f6h21", "prob": 0.4770374477117026, "text": "Plays in the first game of the season", "index": 0, "poolNo": 477.54130835025853, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 523.514920339906, "textFts": "'first':4 'game':5 'play':1 'season':8", "contractId": "u135s4w1vl", "createdT... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720050414236 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
l9dhhyutra | who-would-win-in-a-fight-between-ja | 15 | Who would win in a fight between Jacques Cousteau dual-wielding machetes and a blue-ringed octopus? | 1735718340000 | 5xYMa7OFYFaurldRbLRwLO0T1fE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719529397179 | Joe C | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Imagine a fight to the death, underwater. Jacques Cousteau in full scuba gear (and two machetes) vs a tiny yet nasty blie-ringed octopus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to my ju... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152009, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoeC | 1719538887866 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "z08ugs86c9", "prob": 0.4325969011855096, "text": "Jacques Cousteau", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.105468589394768, "userId": "5xYMa7OFYFaurldRbLRwLO0T1fE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.17533834572827, "textFts": "'cousteau':2 'jacqu':1", "contractId": "l9dhhyutra", "createdTime": 1719529397179, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667097019843 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719530138235 | 1719538885395 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | no9e1ub5ew | {"NO": 10.230752975441476, "YES": 977.4451620525558} | 0 | live-trading-allowed-will-trump-and | 8792.851954760707 | [LIVE TRADING ALLOWED] Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June? | 1719543002869 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719529840389 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve the same as: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-sh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 80.79206190699236, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719543002869 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1719552626966 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719542673479 | 1719552625807 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | tuloolm8ht | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066195} | 0 | will-aer-lingus-and-ialpa-come-to-a | 10999.275268390382 | Will Aer Lingus and IALPA come to an agreement on a raise that ends the work-to-rule industrial action by July 2nd? | 1719980247553 | dEijxXe2BCPbjIT0qGaB0qdscf13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923041 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719531512113 | post jawline | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Aer Lingus and IALPA come to an agreement on pilot raises by July 2nd that ends the work-to-rule industrial action, this will resolve YES. If an alternative outcome other than YES or NO happens, this will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.511936234954857, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 64.0964096047522, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719980247553 | 1000 | postjawline | 1719980247553 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668743846094 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719959870509 | 1719964246254 | 0.01 | dEijxXe2BCPbjIT0qGaB0qdscf13 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | tr8dx7266z | {"NO": 150.24909347539057, "YES": 6655.61419952122} | 0 | will-biden-or-trump-suffer-a-medica | 9668.821422430658 | Will Biden or Trump suffer a medical emergency by end-of-day? | 1719595423595 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.873551706266706 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719534379706 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On request of friend", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.870381866546374, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719595423595 | 1000 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1719595423595 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668430553821 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719593840500 | 0.02 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
79cbb2ao5r | after-the-last-stage-21-of-the-2024 | 1722.9739631742007 | After (the last) Stage 21 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert? | 1721573940000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719534675953 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.099121871987844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 273.89947940430136 | 1100 | ovals | 1720189892725 | 0 | 8 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "igciomj2aq", "prob": 0.04266258467833963, "text": "Mark Cavendish", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.71586419533566, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 823.8945388582983, "textFts": "'cavendish':2 'mark':1", "contractId": "79cbb2ao5r", "createdTime": 1719534675953, "probChanges": {"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720189889563 | 1720109134400 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ioj5ak6hul | after-stage-1-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-ejs8jkkgsy | 3 | After Stage 1 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert? | 1719666000000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 8twntv0v89 | public | 1719534908981 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1625079479019743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719682345475 | 1100 | ovals | 1719666000000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0ugu44wwkc", "prob": 0.09012720096177362, "text": "Mark Cavendish", "index": 0, "poolNo": 54.73943246654296, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 552.6180787221161, "textFts": "'cavendish':2 'mark':1", "contractId": "ioj5ak6hul", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719544254304 | 1719535441289 | {"8twntv0v89": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4d3d384fct | after-stage-1-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-1xiqywv1m8 | 2755.7971101131475 | After Stage 1 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge? | 1719666000000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | oln4lbk9jp | public | 1719535377550 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.31284671445768, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719682307544 | 1200 | ovals | 1719666000000 | 0 | 6 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "53ewy02o6e", "prob": 0.020258463322862488, "text": "Giulio Ciccone", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.265466117629536, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1366.9768909732375, "textFts": "'ciccon':2 'giulio':1", "contractId": "4d3d384fct", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1",... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719664986671 | {"oln4lbk9jp": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | b2jozj13on | {"NO": 356.8614510996176, "YES": 2802.2079631146535} | 0 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | 15406.866277520581 | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 1719621000000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.742677887843854 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719535907110 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the debate, I will ask Claude and ChatGPT to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. If they both choose the same winner, resolves to that (Trump = YES, Biden = NO). If they choose different winners, resolves to... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 355.702103704226, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719621149523 | 1000 | jack | 1719634593363 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719621088450 | 1719634591983 | 0.11 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3364936908497254 | 5xhis7frz1 | {"NO": 6651.97385540934, "YES": 21322.670165078966} | 0 | will-i-think-joe-biden-won-tonights | 16372.328103977172 | Will I think Joe Biden won tonight's presidential debate? | 1719548817160 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.224540912758827 | True | plus | NO | public | 1719537157738 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will watch it later tonight, and observe/judge solely on the merits of each candidates' actual debate performance, attempting as best I can to remain politically neutral. I am very likely voting for Joe Biden but have no strong feelings one way o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 262.43966673987427, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719548817160 | 10000 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1719549013029 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668430553821 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719548163730 | 1719549012108 | 0.14 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wqvbj2fwji | what-caused-resursp-no1-to-break-up | 100 | What caused Resurs-P No.1 to break up? | 2051182740000 | 6lGZdJO8UHYNGW8HDKGo8jAvxhu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719540237670 | Mike | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resurs-P1 broke up into 100+ trackable pieces with some in similar orbits to the ISS. Satellites don't often do this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved if a state party cre... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.441393669952237, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mike7ht1z | 1719541741363 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLKSNHl4Fz096F4ax_gWg4nQN2zg9JaS6_TqnlxaXjmdqI_tws=s96-c | 1 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "rgtuigk82w", "prob": 0.15654934836373963, "text": "Onboard failure (eg. fuel tank explosion)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 107.70498429325463, "userId": "6lGZdJO8UHYNGW8HDKGo8jAvxhu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 580.2888363070331, "textFts": "'eg':3 'explos':6 'failur':2 'fuel':4 'onboard':1 'tank':5", "contractId... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717413444158 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719541736956 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 09h3l6pt5i | {"NO": 19.73696623256357, "YES": 506.6634802009863} | 0.037494204965601345 | will-biden-4x-taxes-for-the-average | 510 | Will Biden 4x taxes for the average American taxpayer? | 1722436140000 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719540966749 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump said he would", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0007204805946168513, "month": -0.46250579503439865} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.303523557234431, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Gen | 1719646427207 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668776584415 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719646424140 | 1719541808600 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nfb8dcanr5 | who-won-the-june-27-2024-cnn-presid | 0 | Who won the June 27, 2024 CNN Presidential debate? | 1719633540000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719542364201 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719633540170 | SteveSokolowski | 1719669728179 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 155 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719669726850 | ["3j3yslctus"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | xb5b9ke8e8 | {"NO": 76.96202177371694, "YES": 129.93421650748604} | 0.37198366878528755 | will-kamala-harris-debate-trumps-vi-akora97tnh | 55.43128336117498 | Will Kamala Harris debate Trump's Vice President candidate before the end of August 10th? | 1723348740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719543369132 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1054519640563013, "month": -0.12801633121471245} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7117664582801495, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719764848221 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719764845148 | 1719544565977 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | thypzenktw | {"NO": 125.04083255329289, "YES": 7997.38756996675} | 0 | will-polymarket-give-biden-more-tha | 56219.83878000915 | Will Polymarket give biden more than 30% probability on Biden winning the election, in the next week? | 1720148256312 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.86223301343404 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719543415603 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An average of 30% or more for any 24 hour window.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719596710299", "type": "text", "marks": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.30417161790415664, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 885.2046114683629, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720148256312 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1720166482091 | 0 | 39 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720147739109 | 1720166480563 | 0.02 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | i3ov1uz1at | {"NO": 1076.5606586964122, "YES": 928.8840270374399} | 0.5368189241791365 | will-someone-replace-biden-on-the-d | 23189.581101529795 | Will someone replace Biden on the democratic ticket for any reason? | 1728100740000 | JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.53524234382924 | False | basic | public | 1719543459430 | Sylvie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.031869176053644144, "week": 0.3077645866800427, "month": 0.03681892417913646} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 587.6586743797016, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1085.5111404002755 | 1000 | sylv | 1720223811414 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c | 121 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645008108574 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720223808334 | 1719549479061 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sqmempr85o | after-seeing-his-june-27-debate-do | 0 | After seeing his June 27 debate, do you believe Joe Biden was under the influence of any psychoactive drug? | 1720155540000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719544033138 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including stimulants (except caffeine), depressants, opioids, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720155540165 | thepurplebull | 1719544273800 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719544270979 | ["oarmuc20nq"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | b95gz1tkxv | {"NO": 226.03854844189476, "YES": 4424.024162662049} | 0.048609784960993045 | will-joe-biden-and-donald-trump-pla | 7552.999353758869 | Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election? | 1730879940000 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.901688794685104 | False | basic | public | 1719544223631 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the two men play at least 9 holes of normal golf before November 5, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mini golf doesn’t count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.014653851200566205, "month": -0.45139021503900695} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.724129617053066, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoshuaB | 1720035637768 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661311952917 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720035634589 | 1719598030181 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xjdxv7csh7 | who-would-win-a-round-of-golf | 0 | Who would win a round of golf? | 1720155540000 | cFrD9D74JAbo34upRkqOXOj6EXF3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719544643073 | Weston Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden made a bold claim.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720155540165 | persimmon | 1719544643131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLGJvguZkAdrVqPb-H8Zct4tWaM_NvUiaXWZqs6xs2n=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700421324993 | 0 | 0.25 | ["v1idqysm10"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jmrzwfqxxq | what-age-will-the-2028-democratic-n | 150.00000000000017 | What age will the 2028 Democratic nominee be? | 1719583201229 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.182941619232501 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1719544830042 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of the 2028 US Presidential election, what age will the Democratic nominee be? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A if there is no Democratic nominee, resolves to 85-90... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.714691803053004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719583201229 | 10000 | Gabrielle | 1719583201229 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 2 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fty3sb540b", "prob": 0.08670977437068252, "text": "35-40", "index": 0, "poolNo": 487.1914158392772, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5131.4533029965005, "textFts": "'-40':2 '35':1", "contractId": "jmrzwfqxxq", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 17... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641356493109 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719546579687 | 1719583171006 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2ftuc42fg6 | {"NO": 54.23501484839373, "YES": 184.38272816839046} | 0.2272882735487901 | will-trump-and-biden-have-a-debate | 124.88688621088275 | Will Trump and Biden have a debate with a live in-person audience before the election? | 1730347140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719545543910 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.2727117264512099} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.253147883826988, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719579859307 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719579856237 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cpkrodfhth | how-likely-is-biden-to-win-the-2024 | 0 | How likely is Biden to win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1719662340000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719546299800 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719662340168 | jim | 1719976140387 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719976139271 | ["3sf0vwlqrr", "tk34bjwemu"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o6nlo95onn | will-chatgptclaude-pick-a-debate-wi | 4435.304682900843 | Will ChatGPT/Claude pick a debate winner? | 1719622259540 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1719546496741 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid", "class": "break-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.1573534511305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719622259540 | 100 | jack | 1719622336523 | 0 | 8 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "y2f8r0becc", "prob": 0, "text": "Claude picks winner", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1317303116229596, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2209.0068405210095, "textFts": "'claud':1 'pick':2 'winner':3", "contractId": "o6nlo95onn", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2Yz... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641102645330 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719622238700 | 1719622335288 | 0 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20892488372909662 | w4l6r8bqau | {"NO": 62070.25233574813, "YES": 23785.570449563027} | 0.40800218481229694 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | 962231.8232970547 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | 1722571140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8024318774793188 | False | plus | public | 1719546716563 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden's debate performance was not well received.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.", ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.09786337615041835, "week": 0.13854188286946806, "month": -0.09199781518770306} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11993.219525523236, "platformFee": 10993.219525523236, "liquidityFee": 0} | 125086.87552205086 | 51000 | Moscow25 | 1720247538111 | 0 | 1076 | 210 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247534990 | 1720218955785 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
de6logqgzv | what-will-bidens-odds-be-on-polymar | 22393.63983486186 | What will Biden's odds be on Polymarket on Monday July 1st 2024? | 1719849040743 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | ldry6w4mu3 | public | 1719548474541 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the debate, Biden's Polymarket odds have fluctuated between 20% and 25%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-preside... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 194.1542326051072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719849040743 | 2000 | Moscow25 | 1719849236852 | 0 | 20 | 7 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "2if7bbuy6o", "prob": 0.0056160681006889104, "text": "Biden will be 40%+ to win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.783266276904328, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4211.077467336153, "textFts": "'40':4 'biden':1 'win':6", "contractId": "de6logqgzv", "resolverId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719848950909 | 1719849234936 | {"ldry6w4mu3": 100} | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80eiak0rdx | if-elected-will-trump-willingly-lea | 132.8892187147752 | If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up? | 1730851140000 | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719549755326 | Muga Sofer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, \"Trump isn't elected or fails to take office\" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0284491314383084, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MugaSofer | 1719927457252 | 0 | 9 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "abjt3dop8f", "prob": 0.40841418140530056, "text": "Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.869802409689246, "userId": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.193347084402234, "textFts": "'elect':4 'fail':6 'isn':2 'offic':9 'take':8 'trump':1", "contract... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671421079598 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719927454168 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uep1zuqnjs | how-soon-after-question-creation-wi | 171 | How soon after question creation will @Mira be banned from Eliezerfic? | 1846393140000 | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719550460198 | Celene | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.793569139272262, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Celene | 1719878664387 | 0 | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7exjxn16yt", "prob": 0.02352259660457258, "text": "1 month", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.1681512769898887, "userId": "iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.5172888658738, "textFts": "'1':1 'month':2", "contractId": "uep1zuqnjs", "createdTime": 1719550460198, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677632865523 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719878659132 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ye88cy1l8s | {"NO": 90.96112163134528, "YES": 109.9370788382406} | 0.45277220711151145 | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-biden-up48yj095i | 55 | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Biden and Trump debate a second time in 2024? | 1727755140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719551671386 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.045932826463196796, "month": -0.04722779288848855} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8249770912645176, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719890834623 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719890831454 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | aexns5j8am | {"NO": 133.94357369819193, "YES": 74.6583036714585} | 0.6421014776431702 | is-it-joever | 200 | Is it Joever? | 1722484740000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719554106564 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the odds of Joe Biden winning the presidency is less than 33.3% at market close (end of July EST) according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Election Betting Odds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.14210147764317016} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.041824206951294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | thepurplebull | 1720057439047 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719573445558 | 1720057436997 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f54ic2pdbz | is-it-ethical-to-use-a-magical-devi | 0 | Is it ethical to use a magical device that reveals the identity behind anonymous accounts? | 1722203940000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719555026225 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lately i have been interacting with many anonymous accounts online and a part of me would love to know who the people behind these accounts are. so today i was wondering what i would do if i actually had a magical device that would reveal the iden... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Soli | 1719878372075 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719878370905 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fykikysjvv | was-the-first-us-presidential-debat | 0 | Was the First US Presidential Debate boring? | 1719886773922 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719555366427 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll determines the resolution of this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-the-first-us-election-debate-b", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719886800536 | Bayesian | 1719886775885 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719577076320 | ["rjm6oxamyh"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | xx7p9h263z | {"NO": 802.1306817747497, "YES": 1246.679652980553} | 0.3915104625194853 | will-there-be-another-jan-6th-if-bi | 743 | Will there be another Jan 6th if Biden is elected? | 1738389540000 | rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577896475375002 | False | basic | public | 1719555452490 | blue rat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump seems to once again be refusing to say whether he will accept a loss. Will it result in similar consequences?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By Jan 6th I mean an act of violence where T... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.019114599003226818, "month": -0.10848953748051471} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.03570041605679, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | bluerat | 1719667262605 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671838735235 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719667259563 | 1719601983398 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | mjnu7qv2gk | {"NO": 11.719429383378838, "YES": 853.2838650133035} | 0 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec-vpw87xrund | 1693.459097652618 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by the end of June 2024? | 1719812317241 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719558557056 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: 6/30/2024 - Resolving this as \"No.\" While calls for Biden to step aside and let another candidate accept the Democratic nomination are proliferating, there has been no official announcement as of end-of-day June 30 Eastern that Biden will... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03875286044382391, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.588374211248567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719812317241 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719812317241 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 21 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808724246 | 0.01 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ikjd17verm | {"NO": 232.27015398012117, "YES": 43.05331455050334} | 0.8436264268343167 | will-gavin-newsom-complete-his-seco | 135 | Will Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California? | 1799222340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719559851338 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom completes his second term as Governor of California, which is scheduled to end on January 5, 2027. The market resolves to \"No\" if he leaves office for any reason before this date, including resignat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.34362642683431666} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7298460198788606, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719592068669 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719592065536 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | d8f53u6t4d | {"NO": 65.13536931605174, "YES": 153.5264189794903} | 0.29788181018630994 | will-conor-mcgregor-announce-a-run | 55 | Will Conor McGregor Announce a Run for Political Office in Ireland by the End of 2025? | 1735718340000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719560440576 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if Conor McGregor publicly announces his candidacy for any political office in Ireland by December 31, 2025. The market resolves to \"No\" if he does not make such an announcement by this date.", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20211818981369006} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4735810205096926, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | BrunoClawfeld | 1719591588761 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719591585709 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ordfg3f9ko | when-will-putin-die | 1592.8722379059823 | When will Putin die? | 2019769140000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719560692812 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve positively as soon as there are credible news of Vladimir Putin dying (from natural causes or otherwise).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The option \"Before X\" will resolve negati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.10949972570624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1719950718401 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 18 | 4 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "i80jpku6hc", "prob": 0.0707494752521723, "text": "Before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.592763845357332, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 362.41385806962455, "textFts": "'2025':2", "contractId": "ordfg3f9ko", "createdTime": 1719560692812, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0092505... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719950714889 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0ucbo6lstq | who-will-represent-the-united-state-uimxdn71vl | 4723.068422496962 | Who will represent the United States in the men's 5000m run at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1719791175624 | Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719560928855 | William Lane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Race will close after Olympic Trials finals on Sunday, June 30th, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.54226454698512, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719791175624 | 1600 | wglane | 1719791175624 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6j7SyA4Olku7rWuXSwdVy275j7x7ZjGOUjBEiHnA=s96-c | 4 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "c642b62adk", "prob": 0.92, "text": "Grant Fisher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 346.13804219232327, "userId": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.890207897009276, "textFts": "'fisher':2 'grant':1", "contractId": "0ucbo6lstq", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674597873798 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719791169030 | 0.92 | Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | jtyw6nbww1 | {"NO": 288.0672449514673, "YES": 3471.411684339456} | 0 | short-fuse-will-the-supreme-court-a | 2510 | [short fuse] Will the Supreme Court announce its ruling in the presidential immunity case on Friday, June 28? | 1719586776391 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.82647280146238 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719562106006 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are half a dozen major cases still to be announced this term. Friday, June 28 was expected to be the last day of the term, but with so many cases outstanding the Court apparently plans to announce decisions after that date. Will the Court ann... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.58831566054425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719586776391 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1719687245337 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719586004952 | 0.08 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | yjoj2k5g1w | {"NO": 110.4810419854507, "YES": 90.51326653234234} | 0.5496724897345557 | will-a-democratic-senator-call-on-b | 70 | Will a Democratic Senator call on Biden to not seek reelection? | 1733029140000 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719563028168 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden announces he will not seek reelection or the election occurs before any Democrat Senator calls on him to not run, this resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bernie Sanders and Angus King count as Dem... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.07021041562616664, "month": 0.049672489734555736} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3454927869282836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CharlieBauer | 1720024933967 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720024930582 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4937523088120459 | ym66bnks5l | {"NO": 9638.0940668623, "YES": 10383.920354197919} | 0.4751387245821101 | will-manifold-implement-some-form-o | 718.4806921433134 | Will Manifold implement some form of automatic growth of invested mana? | 1751147940000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7275258464047853 | False | plus | public | 1719566261289 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prediction markets suck at predictions with the timespan of more than a few months because investments in any other asset grow organically with the market, while bets in the prediction markets don't.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.00025278929509470194, "month": -0.024861275417889905} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.163616511898056, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | OlegEterevsky | 1719820891598 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719820888098 | 1719667718178 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rmqowryzty | is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre | 73159.06023048908 | Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)? | 1722196800000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719570595227 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two out of the three markets are within the following ranges", "typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1099.6265217165455, "platformFee": 81.33359447096797, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1635.138181130467 | 1000 | Lion | 1720244365457 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 306 | 17 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zxz1jbf7lu", "prob": 0.14433586111443827, "text": "Overreacting (Biden's odds will recover)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 145.20797359712762, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 860.8342703466549, "textFts": "'biden':2 'odd':4 'overreact':1 'recov':6", "contractId": "rmqowryzty", "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720244362361 | 1719995751913 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vj4n0n0rnh | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-overwatch-2-reintroduce-6v6-as | 50 | Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode? | 1735707540000 | CJ2YnpZx3NZppGiaNclALGg4wTI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719572061559 | Brytan Hogan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023590158543515094, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BrytanHogan | 1719793342037 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK86Vc12U-oa-bqz-GoJApsHDwYmg_KEudRzJIXfKuOXvDnEt3o3A=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714148172288 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719793338963 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | df55n4cleo | {"NO": 100.2154340804151, "YES": 99.78502904029511} | 0.5010760101086872 | will-i-reach-expert-in-cf-at-the-en | 10 | Will i Reach expert in CF at the end of 2024 | 1735645260000 | sCzmGY7e5QPGhtSw7CUlx2XLONK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719574927882 | arjun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "id-", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/a79573420", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/a79573420", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.02466616865220228, "month": 0.0010760101086871865} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3379826810446662, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | arjunnith | 1719820790903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSaHf6QIPPJ_8JX7upsKSLfU6yOAc1RZWEE77SgrB2SzX2Tg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719574314406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719820787837 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | cz5bgp106i | {"NO": 954.8465974830013, "YES": 1047.288645774121} | 0.47691413489611895 | will-disney-announce-a-new-version | 51 | Will Disney announce a new version of Peoplemover for Disneyland at D23 2024? | 1723348740000 | aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570664789442787 | False | basic | public | 1719575277316 | Twirlnhurl | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces that they are working on a new version of the Peoplemover at D23 in the Disney Experiences Showcase on August 10, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.0005042934396340404, "month": -0.023085865103881054} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6875701315963028, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Twirlnhurl | 1719934941966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Lb14lpZOF1yxUurWsRBNKkKHGy5ib1gI3DeQU=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670325871151 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719934938891 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ntzm68c91n | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-explaining-grokking-through-ci | 0 | Will "Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719576540686 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719576540716 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ywi7zhpknx | if-the-first-presidential-debate-ha | 0 | If the first presidential debate had been hit by a giant meteor, would that be a good thing? | 1722236340000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719578973065 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JonathanRay | 1719578973065 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k5cx7p28q1 | is-moloch-pronounced-correctly-in-t | 0 | Is "moloch" pronounced correctly in this song? | D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719579549805 | P. Jain | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least once: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://youtu.be/aDD2Mg2g_aI?feature=shared&t=804", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/aDD2Mg2g_aI?feature=shared&t=804", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underl... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | logaems | 1719589999889 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLogaems%2Flove-images%2Fmrjjwft5DS.37?alt=media&token=f563a08f-6e8a-40cb-b796-89cad49e1476 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686156720394 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719589998745 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4u1p5l5gs5 | {"NO": 1644.294287438749, "YES": 608.1636405595381} | 0.7299999999999999 | will-they-ship-the-dark-brandons-se | 1010.9353202682041 | Will they ship the Dark Brandon's Secret Sauce | 1723348740000 | vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60914857140422 | False | basic | public | 1719580060482 | ii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe Biden's Twitter account posted this before the debate:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaQah2OWsQo.png?alt=med... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023469434490779095, "month": 0.22999999999999987} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.306187007922148, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | i_i | 1719760699848 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704829711671 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719717263048 | 1719598390313 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0elk8og2xu | how-do-you-think-biden-performed-in | 0 | How well do you think Biden performed in the first 2024 Presidential Debate? | 1720249140000 | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719583164136 | JTX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JTX | 1719583272036 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWpw3Ji0_FKBH_hj2ajSiZIzdEesxe7nRROOtu1r8g=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709796917854 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0o1r71ylmo | ufc-302-main-event-predictions | 50 | UFC 302 Main Event predictions: | 1719871140000 | urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719584575214 | Ess Ay | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6153080369162411, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Snga | 1719584719517 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "lfzywzkpb6", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Jiri Prochazka", "index": 0, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "urjrS8o0FbbPQOvPdwXu1acSHDu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'jiri':1 'prochazka':2", "contractId": "0o1r71ylmo", "createdTime": 1719584575214, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPoo... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717080381102 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719584716085 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | a8l9ovdu3v | {"NO": 974.6714915382174, "YES": 10.259867131455849} | 1 | will-i-solve-janestreet-puzzle-in-j | 923.1800549957596 | Will I solve Janestreet puzzle in June? | 1719931456672 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719584692452 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if I appear on the correct submissions list.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/current-puzzle/", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5327102803738317, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.683734411155839, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719931456672 | 100 | KongoLandwalker | 1719931456672 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719931446248 | 1719931425638 | 0.99 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | 0 |
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